WFO - RIW net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BBRW4 97 ( 97/100) 100 (100/100) 95 ( 95/100) 92 ( 92/100) 86 ( 86/100) 82 ( 82/100) 66 ( 66/100) under -2 under -10 under -20 under -42 under -61 under -72 under -61 38.3 -38.3 41.0 -41.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BHBW4 96 ( 96/100) 100 (100/100) 96 ( 96/100) 91 ( 91/100) 78 ( 78/100) 64 ( 64/100) 53 ( 53/100) under -1 under -10 under -21 under -41 under -53 under -54 under -48 32.6 -32.6 35.8 -35.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPRW4 79 (114/144) 100 (159/159) 79 (114/144) 76 (121/159) 72 (104/144) 65 (104/159) 51 ( 74/144) over 16 under -10 under -4 under -26 under -47 under -55 under -46 29.1 -24.6 28.4 -28.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CROW4 93 (107/115) 100 (115/115) 92 (106/115) 90 (104/115) 86 ( 99/115) 77 ( 89/115) 74 ( 85/115) over 2 under -10 under -17 under -40 under -61 under -67 under -69 38.0 -37.4 39.0 -39.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DUBW4 99 (153/155) 100 (195/195) 95 (147/155) 94 (183/195) 80 (124/155) 73 (142/195) 57 ( 89/155) under -4 under -10 under -20 under -44 under -55 under -63 under -52 35.4 -35.4 38.4 -38.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GYBW4 84 ( 84/100) 100 (100/100) 74 ( 74/100) 68 ( 68/100) 62 ( 62/100) 52 ( 52/100) 44 ( 44/100) over 11 under -10 over 1 under -18 under -37 under -42 under -39 22.6 -19.1 21.6 -21.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KINW4 97 (112/115) 100 (115/115) 97 (112/115) 90 (104/115) 83 ( 96/115) 73 ( 84/115) 61 ( 70/115) under -2 under -10 under -22 under -40 under -58 under -63 under -56 35.9 -35.9 38.6 -38.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFSW4 99 (153/155) 100 (200/200) 99 (153/155) 97 (194/200) 89 (138/155) 81 (161/200) 55 ( 85/155) under -4 under -10 under -24 under -47 under -64 under -71 under -50 38.6 -38.6 43.2 -43.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RVTW4 99 ( 99/100) 100 (100/100) 98 ( 98/100) 95 ( 95/100) 80 ( 80/100) 63 ( 63/100) 52 ( 52/100) under -4 under -10 under -23 under -45 under -55 under -53 under -47 33.9 -33.9 37.2 -37.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLOW4 85 ( 85/100) 100 (100/100) 85 ( 85/100) 81 ( 81/100) 77 ( 77/100) 72 ( 72/100) 63 ( 63/100) over 10 under -10 under -10 under -31 under -52 under -62 under -58 33.3 -30.4 33.0 -33.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXXW4 16 ( 17/108) 100 (108/108) 16 ( 17/108) 13 ( 14/108) 13 ( 14/108) 7 ( 8/108) 5 ( 5/108) over 79 under -10 over 59 over 37 over 12 over 3 spot-on 0 28.6 25.7 24.2 20.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TFLW4 91 (155/171) 100 (214/214) 80 (137/171) 67 (144/214) 46 ( 78/171) 29 ( 61/214) 16 ( 27/171) over 4 under -10 under -5 under -17 under -21 under -19 under -11 12.4 -11.3 14.4 -14.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WDRW4 96 (110/115) 100 (115/115) 95 (109/115) 93 (107/115) 84 ( 97/115) 71 ( 82/115) 64 ( 74/115) under -1 under -10 under -20 under -43 under -59 under -61 under -59 36.1 -36.1 38.6 -38.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WRCW4 99 (154/155) 100 (195/195) 97 (151/155) 86 (168/195) 79 (123/155) 62 (121/195) 57 ( 89/155) under -4 under -10 under -22 under -36 under -54 under -52 under -52 32.9 -32.9 34.8 -34.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YLOW4 91 (156/171) 100 (214/214) 84 (143/171) 78 (167/214) 63 (107/171) 64 (136/214) 52 ( 89/171) over 4 under -10 under -9 under -28 under -38 under -54 under -47 27.1 -26.0 27.8 -27.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================