Forecast Group - SIOUXS (SIO) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AKRI4 92 (131/142) 100 (244/244) 76 (108/142) 61 (150/244) 33 ( 47/142) 12 ( 29/244) 6 ( 9/142) over 3 under -10 under -1 under -11 under -8 under -2 under -1 5.1 -4.3 6.4 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALTI4 91 (129/142) 100 (244/244) 75 (106/142) 57 (138/244) 32 ( 46/142) 16 ( 38/244) 14 ( 20/142) over 4 under -10 spot-on 0 under -7 under -7 under -6 under -9 6.1 -5.0 6.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRKS2 92 (130/142) 100 (244/244) 74 (105/142) 63 (154/244) 28 ( 40/142) 16 ( 39/244) 10 ( 14/142) over 3 under -10 over 1 under -13 under -3 under -6 under -5 5.9 -4.7 6.6 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHKI4 80 (114/142) 100 (244/244) 71 (101/142) 48 (118/244) 34 ( 48/142) 17 ( 42/244) 18 ( 25/142) over 15 under -10 over 4 over 2 under -9 under -7 under -13 8.6 -2.6 6.4 -4.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COSS2 94 (133/142) 100 (244/244) 80 (114/142) 68 (166/244) 37 ( 52/142) 24 ( 58/244) 16 ( 23/142) over 1 under -10 under -5 under -18 under -12 under -14 under -11 10.1 -9.9 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRRI4 82 (116/142) 100 (244/244) 67 ( 95/142) 57 (139/244) 32 ( 45/142) 20 ( 49/244) 14 ( 20/142) over 13 under -10 over 8 under -7 under -7 under -10 under -9 9.1 -3.1 8.4 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSWS2 96 (137/142) 100 (244/244) 89 (126/142) 69 (168/244) 41 ( 58/142) 30 ( 73/244) 13 ( 18/142) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -19 under -16 under -20 under -8 12.6 -12.6 15.8 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DERS2 88 (125/142) 100 (244/244) 74 (105/142) 64 (157/244) 30 ( 43/142) 22 ( 53/244) 10 ( 14/142) over 7 under -10 over 1 under -14 under -5 under -12 under -5 7.7 -5.4 8.4 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOKI4 85 (121/142) 100 (244/244) 75 (107/142) 49 (119/244) 24 ( 34/142) 13 ( 32/244) 4 ( 6/142) over 10 under -10 spot-on 0 over 1 over 1 under -3 over 1 3.7 0.0 3.0 -2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JMEI4 94 (133/142) 100 (244/244) 80 (113/142) 66 (160/244) 37 ( 53/142) 16 ( 38/244) 13 ( 18/142) over 1 under -10 under -5 under -16 under -12 under -6 under -8 8.3 -8.0 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LMRI4 70 (100/142) 100 (244/244) 59 ( 84/142) 27 ( 67/244) 25 ( 35/142) 9 ( 22/244) 11 ( 16/142) over 25 under -10 over 16 over 23 spot-on 0 over 1 under -6 11.6 7.0 10.0 6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNNI4 87 (123/142) 100 (244/244) 74 (105/142) 64 (156/244) 28 ( 40/142) 23 ( 57/244) 13 ( 18/142) over 8 under -10 over 1 under -14 under -3 under -13 under -8 8.1 -5.6 8.2 -7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LUVM5 89 (126/142) 100 (244/244) 78 (111/142) 64 (157/244) 38 ( 54/142) 21 ( 51/244) 10 ( 14/142) over 6 under -10 under -3 under -14 under -13 under -11 under -5 8.9 -7.1 10.2 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPI4 92 (131/142) 100 (244/244) 78 (111/142) 62 (152/244) 34 ( 48/142) 27 ( 66/244) 21 ( 30/142) over 3 under -10 under -3 under -12 under -9 under -17 under -16 10.0 -9.1 10.2 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRLI4 37 ( 53/142) 100 (244/244) 27 ( 39/142) 16 ( 38/244) 4 ( 6/142) 1 ( 2/244) 0 ( 0/142) over 58 under -10 over 48 over 34 over 21 over 9 over 5 26.4 23.6 24.4 20.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RAPI4 87 (123/142) 100 (233/233) 77 (109/142) 61 (141/233) 32 ( 45/142) 19 ( 44/233) 8 ( 12/142) over 8 under -10 under -2 under -11 under -7 under -9 under -3 7.1 -4.9 7.8 -7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RKVI4 77 (110/142) 100 (244/244) 69 ( 98/142) 66 (161/244) 29 ( 41/142) 24 ( 58/244) 11 ( 15/142) over 18 under -10 over 6 under -16 under -4 under -14 under -6 10.6 -3.7 10.0 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFLS2 65 ( 93/142) 100 (244/244) 61 ( 86/142) 50 (121/244) 23 ( 33/142) 11 ( 26/244) 6 ( 8/142) over 30 under -10 over 14 spot-on 0 over 2 under -1 under -1 8.3 4.9 5.4 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHLI4 62 ( 88/142) 100 (244/244) 51 ( 72/142) 27 ( 67/244) 23 ( 32/142) 5 ( 11/244) 4 ( 5/142) over 33 under -10 over 24 over 23 over 2 over 5 over 1 14.0 11.1 12.8 8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIFS2 94 (133/142) 100 (244/244) 83 (118/142) 80 (194/244) 45 ( 64/142) 33 ( 80/244) 23 ( 33/142) over 1 under -10 under -8 under -30 under -20 under -23 under -18 15.7 -15.4 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIOI4 87 (123/142) 100 (244/244) 75 (107/142) 73 (178/244) 46 ( 65/142) 39 ( 96/244) 20 ( 29/142) over 8 under -10 spot-on 0 under -23 under -21 under -29 under -15 15.1 -12.9 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPOI4 97 (138/142) 100 (168/168) 89 (127/142) 77 (130/168) 50 ( 71/142) 29 ( 48/168) 18 ( 26/142) under -2 under -10 under -14 under -27 under -25 under -19 under -13 15.7 -15.7 19.0 -19.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPWI4 76 (108/142) 100 (244/244) 70 ( 99/142) 53 (129/244) 29 ( 41/142) 12 ( 29/244) 10 ( 14/142) over 19 under -10 over 5 under -3 under -4 under -2 under -5 6.9 0.0 4.8 -2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXCI4 68 ( 96/142) 100 (244/244) 57 ( 81/142) 30 ( 74/244) 23 ( 32/142) 11 ( 28/244) 9 ( 13/142) over 27 under -10 over 18 over 20 over 2 under -1 under -4 11.7 7.4 10.2 5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXFS2 89 (127/142) 100 (244/244) 75 (107/142) 64 (157/244) 25 ( 36/142) 19 ( 47/244) 3 ( 4/142) over 6 under -10 spot-on 0 under -14 spot-on 0 under -9 over 2 5.9 -3.6 6.6 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TURI4 95 (135/142) 100 (244/244) 84 (119/142) 63 (154/244) 38 ( 54/142) 23 ( 56/244) 14 ( 20/142) spot-on 0 under -10 under -9 under -13 under -13 under -13 under -9 9.6 -9.6 11.6 -11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WBSS2 92 (130/142) 100 (244/244) 82 (116/142) 59 (145/244) 39 ( 56/142) 25 ( 60/244) 14 ( 20/142) over 3 under -10 under -7 under -9 under -14 under -15 under -9 9.6 -8.7 11.0 -11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WBWS2 94 (133/142) 100 (244/244) 84 (119/142) 57 (138/244) 31 ( 44/142) 12 ( 30/244) 10 ( 14/142) over 1 under -10 under -9 under -7 under -6 under -2 under -5 5.7 -5.4 6.8 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTRS2 94 (133/142) 100 (244/244) 87 (123/142) 66 (162/244) 44 ( 62/142) 20 ( 48/244) 11 ( 16/142) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -16 under -19 under -10 under -6 10.6 -10.3 13.4 -13.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================