Forecast Group - SOPLAT (SPL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BZNC2 76 ( 96/126) 100 (150/150) 56 ( 71/126) 41 ( 61/150) 16 ( 20/126) 11 ( 16/150) 2 ( 3/126) over 19 under -10 over 19 over 9 over 9 under -1 over 3 10.0 6.9 9.6 5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DKKC2 53 ( 67/126) 100 (136/136) 53 ( 67/126) 54 ( 74/136) 44 ( 56/126) 40 ( 54/136) 33 ( 41/126) over 42 under -10 over 22 under -4 under -19 under -30 under -28 22.1 -3.9 17.0 -8.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNVC2 93 (117/126) 100 (155/155) 90 (113/126) 83 (128/155) 69 ( 87/126) 43 ( 66/155) 27 ( 34/126) over 2 under -10 under -15 under -33 under -44 under -33 under -22 22.7 -22.1 27.0 -27.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DRBC2 96 (121/126) 100 (155/155) 90 (113/126) 76 (118/155) 64 ( 81/126) 41 ( 63/155) 37 ( 47/126) under -1 under -10 under -15 under -26 under -39 under -31 under -32 22.0 -22.0 24.2 -24.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTDC2 94 (118/126) 100 (159/159) 91 (115/126) 88 (140/159) 67 ( 85/126) 48 ( 76/159) 16 ( 20/126) over 1 under -10 under -16 under -38 under -42 under -38 under -11 22.3 -22.0 28.8 -28.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLDC2 87 (109/126) 100 (157/157) 85 (107/126) 79 (124/157) 58 ( 73/126) 48 ( 75/157) 29 ( 37/126) over 8 under -10 under -10 under -29 under -33 under -38 under -24 21.7 -19.4 24.0 -24.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRPC2 90 (114/126) 100 (162/162) 87 (110/126) 78 (126/162) 54 ( 68/126) 33 ( 54/162) 13 ( 17/126) over 5 under -10 under -12 under -28 under -29 under -23 under -8 16.4 -15.0 20.4 -20.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HNDC2 85 (107/126) 100 (155/155) 75 ( 94/126) 61 ( 95/155) 36 ( 45/126) 17 ( 26/155) 8 ( 10/126) over 10 under -10 spot-on 0 under -11 under -11 under -7 under -3 7.4 -4.6 7.8 -7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JULC2 77 ( 97/126) 100 (150/150) 67 ( 84/126) 54 ( 81/150) 40 ( 51/126) 33 ( 49/150) 20 ( 25/126) over 18 under -10 over 8 under -4 under -15 under -23 under -15 13.3 -5.9 12.0 -8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KERC2 76 ( 96/126) 100 (155/155) 61 ( 77/126) 49 ( 76/155) 24 ( 30/126) 14 ( 22/155) 6 ( 8/126) over 19 under -10 over 14 over 1 over 1 under -4 under -1 7.1 2.9 6.0 0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOVC2 89 (112/126) 100 (157/157) 82 (103/126) 75 (118/157) 58 ( 73/126) 45 ( 70/157) 27 ( 34/126) over 6 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -33 under -35 under -22 19.7 -18.0 22.0 -22.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRRC2 94 (118/126) 100 (155/155) 87 (110/126) 81 (126/155) 57 ( 72/126) 45 ( 69/155) 30 ( 38/126) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -31 under -32 under -35 under -25 20.9 -20.6 24.0 -24.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NPSN1 87 (109/126) 100 (150/150) 83 (104/126) 70 (105/150) 46 ( 58/126) 37 ( 55/150) 27 ( 34/126) over 8 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -21 under -27 under -22 16.6 -14.3 17.2 -17.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POUC2 94 (119/126) 100 (162/162) 94 (118/126) 89 (144/162) 75 ( 94/126) 54 ( 88/162) 22 ( 28/126) over 1 under -10 under -19 under -39 under -50 under -44 under -17 25.7 -25.4 32.4 -32.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSON1 58 ( 74/127) 100 (151/151) 49 ( 62/127) 42 ( 64/151) 28 ( 35/127) 22 ( 33/151) 13 ( 16/127) over 37 under -10 over 26 over 8 under -3 under -12 under -8 14.9 5.4 11.8 1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHRC2 85 (107/126) 100 (155/155) 81 (102/126) 70 (108/155) 52 ( 65/126) 26 ( 41/155) 15 ( 19/126) over 10 under -10 under -6 under -20 under -27 under -16 under -10 14.1 -11.3 15.8 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPTC2 43 ( 54/126) 100 (155/155) 37 ( 47/126) 37 ( 57/155) 29 ( 36/126) 25 ( 38/155) 16 ( 20/126) over 52 under -10 over 38 over 13 under -4 under -15 under -11 20.4 9.0 16.0 4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WNAC2 80 (101/126) 100 (150/150) 65 ( 82/126) 49 ( 73/150) 29 ( 36/126) 13 ( 19/150) 6 ( 8/126) over 15 under -10 over 10 over 1 under -4 under -3 under -1 6.3 1.1 5.6 -1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================