WFO - TFX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCMM8 93 (179/192) 100 (206/206) 92 (176/192) 85 (175/206) 52 (100/192) 33 ( 68/206) 27 ( 52/192) over 2 under -10 under -17 under -35 under -27 under -23 under -22 19.4 -18.9 22.4 -22.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BSMM8 96 (184/192) 100 (206/206) 93 (179/192) 81 (166/206) 64 (122/192) 48 ( 98/206) 38 ( 73/192) under -1 under -10 under -18 under -31 under -39 under -38 under -33 24.3 -24.3 27.2 -27.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CCMM8 94 (181/192) 100 (206/206) 93 (179/192) 81 (167/206) 67 (128/192) 45 ( 93/206) 39 ( 75/192) over 1 under -10 under -18 under -31 under -42 under -35 under -34 24.4 -24.1 27.2 -27.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBRM8 94 (116/123) 100 (123/123) 93 (114/123) 84 (103/123) 74 ( 91/123) 49 ( 60/123) 24 ( 29/123) over 1 under -10 under -18 under -34 under -49 under -39 under -19 24.3 -24.0 30.0 -30.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DTTM8 86 (107/124) 100 (124/124) 82 (102/124) 75 ( 93/124) 58 ( 72/124) 41 ( 51/124) 32 ( 40/124) over 9 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -33 under -31 under -27 20.3 -17.7 21.2 -21.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERNM8 90 (172/192) 100 (206/206) 89 (171/192) 84 (173/206) 65 (124/192) 38 ( 79/206) 32 ( 61/192) over 5 under -10 under -14 under -34 under -40 under -28 under -27 22.6 -21.1 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FBNM8 100 ( 90/ 90) 100 ( 90/ 90) 99 ( 89/ 90) 98 ( 88/ 90) 97 ( 87/ 90) 78 ( 70/ 90) 67 ( 60/ 90) under -5 under -10 under -24 under -48 under -72 under -68 under -62 41.3 -41.3 44.4 -44.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLGM8 96 (162/169) 100 (214/214) 95 (161/169) 87 (187/214) 73 (124/169) 50 (106/214) 33 ( 56/169) under -1 under -10 under -20 under -37 under -48 under -40 under -28 26.3 -26.3 31.0 -31.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRLM8 71 (137/192) 100 (265/265) 63 (121/192) 63 (166/265) 40 ( 77/192) 34 ( 89/265) 17 ( 32/192) over 24 under -10 over 12 under -13 under -15 under -24 under -12 15.7 -5.4 14.8 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HVRM8 63 (121/192) 100 (265/265) 55 (106/192) 48 (128/265) 41 ( 78/192) 36 ( 96/265) 26 ( 49/192) over 32 under -10 over 20 over 2 under -16 under -26 under -21 18.1 -2.7 14.8 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDKM8 100 ( 89/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 99 ( 88/ 89) 99 ( 88/ 89) 94 ( 84/ 89) 80 ( 71/ 89) 67 ( 60/ 89) under -5 under -10 under -24 under -49 under -69 under -70 under -62 41.3 -41.3 44.4 -44.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LGEM8 74 (143/192) 100 (206/206) 73 (141/192) 70 (145/206) 56 (108/192) 32 ( 65/206) 26 ( 50/192) over 21 under -10 over 2 under -20 under -31 under -22 under -21 18.1 -11.6 17.0 -16.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOGM8 96 (153/160) 100 (160/160) 91 (145/160) 84 (134/160) 58 ( 93/160) 36 ( 58/160) 26 ( 42/160) under -1 under -10 under -16 under -34 under -33 under -26 under -21 20.1 -20.1 23.8 -23.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDYM8 68 (115/169) 100 (193/193) 60 (101/169) 57 (110/193) 40 ( 68/169) 35 ( 68/193) 28 ( 48/169) over 27 under -10 over 15 under -7 under -15 under -25 under -23 17.4 -5.4 14.4 -8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MLRM8 94 (159/169) 100 (214/214) 87 (147/169) 80 (171/214) 59 ( 99/169) 27 ( 57/214) 11 ( 19/169) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -30 under -34 under -17 under -6 15.7 -15.4 20.6 -20.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHLM8 98 (141/144) 100 (144/144) 94 (136/144) 75 (108/144) 49 ( 71/144) 36 ( 52/144) 31 ( 44/144) under -3 under -10 under -19 under -25 under -24 under -26 under -26 19.0 -19.0 20.8 -20.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMBM8 98 (188/192) 100 (243/243) 97 (186/192) 93 (227/243) 85 (164/192) 72 (176/243) 53 (102/192) under -3 under -10 under -22 under -43 under -60 under -62 under -48 35.4 -35.4 39.4 -39.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSRM8 81 (100/124) 100 (124/124) 78 ( 97/124) 73 ( 90/124) 60 ( 75/124) 52 ( 64/124) 48 ( 59/124) over 14 under -10 under -3 under -23 under -35 under -42 under -43 24.3 -20.3 22.6 -22.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TFKM8 88 (109/124) 100 (124/124) 82 (102/124) 75 ( 93/124) 64 ( 79/124) 44 ( 54/124) 33 ( 41/124) over 7 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -39 under -34 under -28 21.4 -19.4 23.0 -23.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOSM8 94 (116/124) 100 (124/124) 87 (108/124) 76 ( 94/124) 62 ( 77/124) 40 ( 50/124) 23 ( 29/124) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -26 under -37 under -30 under -18 19.1 -18.9 23.0 -23.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TWIM8 87 (124/143) 100 (143/143) 80 (115/143) 72 (103/143) 62 ( 88/143) 45 ( 64/143) 31 ( 44/143) over 8 under -10 under -5 under -22 under -37 under -35 under -26 20.4 -18.1 21.8 -21.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TWNM8 66 ( 82/124) 100 (124/124) 65 ( 80/124) 60 ( 75/124) 48 ( 60/124) 30 ( 37/124) 21 ( 26/124) over 29 under -10 over 10 under -10 under -23 under -20 under -16 16.9 -5.7 14.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ULMM8 99 ( 89/ 90) 100 ( 90/ 90) 99 ( 89/ 90) 99 ( 89/ 90) 98 ( 88/ 90) 82 ( 74/ 90) 68 ( 61/ 90) under -4 under -10 under -24 under -49 under -73 under -72 under -63 42.1 -42.1 45.6 -45.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VAUM8 74 ( 92/124) 100 (124/124) 72 ( 89/124) 67 ( 83/124) 57 ( 71/124) 47 ( 58/124) 35 ( 44/124) over 21 under -10 over 3 under -17 under -32 under -37 under -30 21.4 -14.6 19.8 -18.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================