Forecast Group - UPRDAK (UDT) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CACS2 93 (138/148) 100 (253/253) 86 (127/148) 83 (209/253) 43 ( 64/148) 25 ( 64/253) 13 ( 19/148) over 2 under -10 under -11 under -33 under -18 under -15 under -8 13.9 -13.3 17.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HZNN8 84 (124/148) 100 (253/253) 76 (112/148) 59 (149/253) 38 ( 56/148) 21 ( 52/253) 9 ( 13/148) over 11 under -10 under -1 under -9 under -13 under -11 under -4 8.4 -5.3 8.8 -8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LMCN8 93 (137/148) 100 (253/253) 89 (131/148) 72 (182/253) 44 ( 65/148) 22 ( 55/253) 12 ( 18/148) over 2 under -10 under -14 under -22 under -19 under -12 under -7 12.3 -11.7 15.4 -15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDAN8 91 (134/148) 100 (253/253) 81 (120/148) 76 (192/253) 52 ( 77/148) 32 ( 82/253) 12 ( 18/148) over 4 under -10 under -6 under -26 under -27 under -22 under -7 14.6 -13.4 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDNN8 89 (132/148) 100 (253/253) 83 (123/148) 70 (176/253) 41 ( 60/148) 25 ( 62/253) 11 ( 16/148) over 6 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -16 under -15 under -6 11.6 -9.9 13.8 -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MENN8 84 (125/148) 100 (253/253) 77 (114/148) 47 (118/253) 20 ( 29/148) 11 ( 28/253) 7 ( 10/148) over 11 under -10 under -2 over 3 over 5 under -1 under -2 4.9 0.6 4.2 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNGN8 97 (143/148) 100 (253/253) 93 (138/148) 79 (200/253) 48 ( 71/148) 19 ( 49/253) 11 ( 16/148) under -2 under -10 under -18 under -29 under -23 under -9 under -6 13.9 -13.9 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTHN8 95 (140/148) 100 (253/253) 93 (137/148) 80 (202/253) 53 ( 78/148) 35 ( 89/253) 10 ( 15/148) spot-on 0 under -10 under -18 under -30 under -28 under -25 under -5 16.6 -16.6 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTFN8 95 (141/148) 100 (253/253) 93 (137/148) 78 (198/253) 59 ( 87/148) 31 ( 78/253) 18 ( 26/148) spot-on 0 under -10 under -18 under -28 under -34 under -21 under -13 17.7 -17.7 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZAPN8 97 (143/148) 100 (253/253) 89 (131/148) 64 (162/253) 37 ( 55/148) 13 ( 32/253) 6 ( 9/148) under -2 under -10 under -14 under -14 under -12 under -3 under -1 8.0 -8.0 10.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================