Forecast Group - UPRMO (UMO) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBRM8 95 ( 99/104) 100 (104/104) 93 ( 97/104) 83 ( 86/104) 74 ( 77/104) 48 ( 50/104) 23 ( 24/104) spot-on 0 under -10 under -18 under -33 under -49 under -38 under -18 23.7 -23.7 29.6 -29.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DTTM8 85 ( 89/105) 100 (105/105) 82 ( 86/105) 78 ( 82/105) 60 ( 63/105) 43 ( 45/105) 33 ( 35/105) over 10 under -10 under -7 under -28 under -35 under -33 under -28 21.6 -18.7 22.6 -22.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLGM8 97 (145/150) 100 (195/195) 96 (144/150) 88 (172/195) 74 (111/150) 49 ( 96/195) 33 ( 50/150) under -2 under -10 under -21 under -38 under -49 under -39 under -28 26.7 -26.7 31.4 -31.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HLWM8 98 (121/124) 100 (124/124) 96 (119/124) 87 (108/124) 82 (102/124) 60 ( 75/124) 48 ( 59/124) under -3 under -10 under -21 under -37 under -57 under -50 under -43 31.6 -31.6 35.0 -35.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOGM8 96 (136/141) 100 (141/141) 91 (129/141) 84 (118/141) 59 ( 83/141) 35 ( 50/141) 25 ( 35/141) under -1 under -10 under -16 under -34 under -34 under -25 under -20 20.0 -20.0 23.8 -23.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LVNM8 93 (115/124) 100 (124/124) 90 (111/123) 76 ( 94/124) 59 ( 73/123) 48 ( 60/124) 38 ( 47/123) over 2 under -10 under -15 under -26 under -34 under -38 under -33 22.6 -22.0 24.6 -24.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDYM8 71 (106/150) 100 (174/174) 61 ( 92/150) 58 (101/174) 39 ( 59/150) 34 ( 59/174) 26 ( 39/150) over 24 under -10 over 14 under -8 under -14 under -24 under -21 16.4 -5.6 14.0 -8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MLRM8 96 (144/150) 100 (195/195) 88 (132/150) 81 (157/195) 60 ( 90/150) 28 ( 55/195) 11 ( 17/150) under -1 under -10 under -13 under -31 under -35 under -18 under -6 16.3 -16.3 21.4 -21.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSBM8 94 (116/123) 100 (123/123) 90 (111/123) 83 (102/123) 73 ( 90/123) 61 ( 75/123) 46 ( 56/123) over 1 under -10 under -15 under -33 under -48 under -51 under -41 28.4 -28.1 31.4 -31.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MUSM8 89 (110/123) 100 (123/123) 85 (104/123) 69 ( 85/123) 50 ( 62/123) 35 ( 43/123) 26 ( 32/123) over 6 under -10 under -10 under -19 under -25 under -25 under -21 16.6 -14.9 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUPM8 88 (108/123) 100 (123/123) 83 (102/123) 71 ( 87/123) 53 ( 65/123) 37 ( 45/123) 24 ( 30/123) over 7 under -10 under -8 under -21 under -28 under -27 under -19 17.1 -15.1 18.8 -18.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHAM8 91 (113/124) 100 (124/124) 86 (107/124) 72 ( 89/124) 52 ( 64/124) 36 ( 45/124) 27 ( 34/124) over 4 under -10 under -11 under -22 under -27 under -26 under -22 17.4 -16.3 19.2 -19.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHLM8 98 (122/125) 100 (125/125) 95 (119/125) 76 ( 95/125) 50 ( 63/125) 37 ( 46/125) 31 ( 39/125) under -3 under -10 under -20 under -26 under -25 under -27 under -26 19.6 -19.6 21.6 -21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSRM8 77 ( 81/105) 100 (105/105) 74 ( 78/105) 68 ( 71/105) 54 ( 57/105) 49 ( 51/105) 45 ( 47/105) over 18 under -10 over 1 under -18 under -29 under -39 under -40 22.1 -16.7 19.4 -19.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TFKM8 88 ( 92/105) 100 (105/105) 82 ( 86/105) 75 ( 79/105) 65 ( 68/105) 44 ( 46/105) 31 ( 33/105) over 7 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -40 under -34 under -26 21.3 -19.3 23.2 -23.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOSM8 94 ( 99/105) 100 (105/105) 88 ( 92/105) 74 ( 78/105) 62 ( 65/105) 40 ( 42/105) 22 ( 23/105) over 1 under -10 under -13 under -24 under -37 under -30 under -17 18.9 -18.6 22.8 -22.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TWIM8 87 (108/124) 100 (124/124) 81 (100/124) 73 ( 90/124) 63 ( 78/124) 45 ( 56/124) 30 ( 37/124) over 8 under -10 under -6 under -23 under -38 under -35 under -25 20.7 -18.4 22.4 -22.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TWNM8 70 ( 74/105) 100 (105/105) 70 ( 73/105) 68 ( 71/105) 54 ( 57/105) 33 ( 35/105) 23 ( 24/105) over 25 under -10 over 5 under -18 under -29 under -23 under -18 18.3 -9.7 17.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VAUM8 73 ( 77/105) 100 (105/105) 70 ( 74/105) 65 ( 68/105) 55 ( 58/105) 47 ( 49/105) 35 ( 37/105) over 22 under -10 over 5 under -15 under -30 under -37 under -30 21.3 -13.6 19.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================