WFO - UNR net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BWSW4 96 (155/161) 100 (200/200) 95 (153/161) 90 (179/200) 75 (121/161) 38 ( 76/200) 18 ( 29/161) under -1 under -10 under -20 under -40 under -50 under -28 under -13 23.1 -23.1 29.6 -29.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CACS2 94 (156/166) 100 (271/271) 87 (145/166) 84 (227/271) 45 ( 74/166) 25 ( 69/271) 12 ( 20/166) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -34 under -20 under -15 under -7 14.1 -13.9 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EMSS2 93 (149/161) 100 (259/259) 86 (139/161) 76 (196/259) 52 ( 84/161) 25 ( 66/259) 12 ( 19/161) over 2 under -10 under -11 under -26 under -27 under -15 under -7 14.0 -13.4 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTHS2 88 (141/161) 100 (259/259) 76 (122/161) 66 (170/259) 26 ( 42/161) 31 ( 80/259) 14 ( 23/161) over 7 under -10 under -1 under -16 under -1 under -21 under -9 9.3 -7.3 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KDKS2 96 (150/157) 100 (195/195) 86 (135/157) 65 (126/195) 36 ( 56/157) 22 ( 42/195) 11 ( 17/157) under -1 under -10 under -11 under -15 under -11 under -12 under -6 9.4 -9.4 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MIDS2 75 (118/157) 100 (241/241) 65 (102/157) 56 (134/241) 25 ( 40/157) 21 ( 51/241) 9 ( 14/157) over 20 under -10 over 10 under -6 spot-on 0 under -11 under -4 8.7 -0.1 7.4 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OACS2 92 (145/157) 100 (240/240) 82 (129/157) 75 (179/240) 34 ( 53/157) 32 ( 76/240) 8 ( 12/157) over 3 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -9 under -22 under -3 11.3 -10.4 14.6 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLNS2 87 (140/161) 100 (259/259) 81 (130/161) 78 (202/259) 55 ( 89/161) 38 ( 99/259) 17 ( 28/161) over 8 under -10 under -6 under -28 under -30 under -28 under -12 17.4 -15.1 20.4 -20.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SBFS2 98 (157/161) 100 (200/200) 89 (143/161) 76 (151/200) 50 ( 80/161) 25 ( 50/200) 16 ( 25/161) under -3 under -10 under -14 under -26 under -25 under -15 under -11 14.9 -14.9 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WASS2 99 (159/161) 100 (259/259) 94 (152/161) 90 (234/259) 70 (113/161) 53 (136/259) 29 ( 47/161) under -4 under -10 under -19 under -40 under -45 under -43 under -24 26.4 -26.4 31.4 -31.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHRS2 90 (141/157) 100 (195/195) 82 (129/157) 55 (108/195) 19 ( 30/157) 10 ( 19/195) 4 ( 6/157) over 5 under -10 under -7 under -5 over 6 spot-on 0 over 1 4.9 -1.4 5.6 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================