Forecast Group - UPRSMO (USH) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ARNK1 80 (109/137) 100 (181/181) 72 ( 99/137) 56 (102/181) 18 ( 24/137) 8 ( 15/181) 1 ( 1/137) over 15 under -10 over 3 under -6 over 7 over 2 over 4 6.7 2.1 5.6 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ELWK1 100 (137/137) 100 (181/181) 85 (116/137) 52 ( 94/181) 23 ( 32/137) 4 ( 7/181) 1 ( 2/137) under -5 under -10 under -10 under -2 over 2 over 6 over 4 5.6 -2.1 6.0 -2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDEK1 96 (132/137) 100 (181/181) 91 (124/137) 70 (126/181) 36 ( 49/137) 19 ( 35/181) 7 ( 9/137) under -1 under -10 under -16 under -20 under -11 under -9 under -2 9.9 -9.9 13.2 -13.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HYSK1 99 (136/137) 100 (181/181) 98 (134/137) 91 (165/181) 63 ( 86/137) 26 ( 47/181) 14 ( 19/137) under -4 under -10 under -23 under -41 under -38 under -16 under -9 20.1 -20.1 25.6 -25.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OKYK1 76 (104/137) 100 (181/181) 66 ( 91/137) 49 ( 89/181) 23 ( 32/137) 15 ( 27/181) 10 ( 14/137) over 19 under -10 over 9 over 1 over 2 under -5 under -5 7.3 1.6 5.4 -0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSLK1 97 (133/137) 100 (143/143) 85 (117/137) 60 ( 86/143) 32 ( 44/137) 10 ( 15/143) 4 ( 5/137) under -2 under -10 under -10 under -10 under -7 spot-on 0 over 1 5.7 -5.4 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUSK1 89 (122/137) 100 (181/181) 76 (104/137) 60 (109/181) 31 ( 43/137) 13 ( 23/181) 8 ( 11/137) over 6 under -10 under -1 under -10 under -6 under -3 under -3 5.6 -3.9 6.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCSK1 87 (119/137) 100 (181/181) 82 (113/137) 57 (103/181) 32 ( 44/137) 12 ( 21/181) 8 ( 11/137) over 8 under -10 under -7 under -7 under -7 under -2 under -3 6.3 -4.0 6.6 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SKTK1 99 (136/137) 100 (181/181) 99 (135/137) 91 (165/181) 65 ( 89/137) 32 ( 58/181) 18 ( 24/137) under -4 under -10 under -24 under -41 under -40 under -22 under -13 22.0 -22.0 27.4 -27.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WAAK1 88 (120/137) 100 (181/181) 83 (114/137) 75 (135/181) 45 ( 62/137) 19 ( 35/181) 12 ( 17/137) over 7 under -10 under -8 under -25 under -20 under -9 under -7 12.3 -10.3 14.4 -14.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================