Probabilistic forecasts account for uncertainty in weather guidance, allowing for more accurate risk assessments and better decision-making. This is especially useful for extended outlooks where guidance can differ more substantially.
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Intended as a Protective Assessment, this represents a lowered risk tolerance intended to capture roughly 3 out of every 4 events based on historical analysis.
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Trend indicates if the forecast has recently shifted warmer or colder for that date, while Confidence reflects agreement among guidance and the forecast spread. The experimental probabilities in this table are from bias-adjusted statistical guidance and may differ slightly from the official NWS forecast.
Low Chance10% - 25%
Medium Chance30% - 55%
High Chance60% - 75%
Very High Chance80% +
Probabilities are derived from a local NWS (Melbourne) analysis of minimum temperatures at 4 ASOS and 4 FAWN sites across East Central Florida (2005–2020).
A significant correlation was found between thresholds for cold-duration events (4h ≤40°F, 2h ≤32°F, 2h ≤27°F) that may require protective action by public safety and/or agricultural interests and instantaneous minimum temperatures 1-4° degrees colder. Winds are also checked each night to adjust for advective and radiational events.The probabilities in this table are from bias-corrected statistical guidance and may differ slightly from the official NWS forecast.