National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

 

Outlook l Temperature l Precipitation  l  Conclusion  

 

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CPC U.S. Temperature Outlook for the 2019/2020 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)


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CPC U.S. Precipitation Outlook for the 2019/2020 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)


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Summary: 

Climate forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict a neutral El Nino to occur during the meteorological winter months of 2019-2020 (Dec-Jan-Feb) and possibly into spring. This absence of El Nino or La Nina could allow other global factors, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, to play a larger role in determining winter weather. All that being said, the winter months of December-January-February should favor Above Normal Temperatures and Above Normal Precipitation for a good portion of Montana. Scroll below to see additional details on the Temperatures and Precipitation Outlook. 

 

Outlook l Temperature l Precipitation  l  Conclusion 

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CPC U.S. Temperature Outlook for the 2019/2020 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)


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Temperature probability forecast by category for central and southern Montana during the winter of 2019/2020 (Dec-Jan-Feb)


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Summary: 

With a neutral El Nino expected, generally above normal temperatures are possible. There still could be cold temperatures at times. The image on the right shows the individual break down by category for temperatures in central and southern Montana. Overall there is a 37% chance of above normal temperatures, with slightly less, but still similar, chances for near normal (34%) and below normal (29%) temperatures. 

Outlook l Temperature l Precipitation  l  Conclusion 

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CPC U.S. Precip Outlook for the 2019/2020 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) 


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Precipitation probability forecast by category for central and southern Montana during the winter of 2019/2020 (Dec-Jan-Feb)


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Summary: 

With neutral El Nino conditions expected, other factors may contribute to precipitation during the winter months. The pie chart above shows shows the individual break down by category for temperatures in central and southern Montana. Overall this winter is leaning towards above normal chances with a 41% chance, while near normal and above normal chances remain not far behind at 33% and 26% respectively. It is important to note this is only for the months of December-January-February which climatology wise are some of the drier months across Montana. This outlook, along with the temperature outlook, also does not take into account the active and cold weather that has already occurred in September and October.   

 

Outlook l Temperature l Precipitation  l  Conclusion 

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CPC U.S. Temperature Outlook for the 2018/2019 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)


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CPC U.S. Precipitation Outlook for the 2018/2019 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)


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Key Points

‚Äč- A neutral El Nino and other contributing factors may bring Above Normal Temperatures and Above Normal Precipitation this winter.

- Other factors could over take the influence of the neutral El Nino this winter and possibly bring variability to this outlook, especially for precipitation.

- These outlooks are only for December, January, and February which are typically the driest months for the lower elevations. The wettest months for the lower elevations typically come from March through June, with the typical snow season running from September through June. 

- These outlooks also only display the chances for above, below, or near normal temperatures and precipitation. They do not indicate how much above or below normal a given parameter will be. 

- Winter will still come, and periods of snow and cold temperatures are expected at times. 

- Contact your local National Weather Service Office for questions and more details.