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Heavy Freezing Spray Warning


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
347 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

LHZ361>363-462-463-182100-
/O.CON.KDTX.UP.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250218T2100Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
347 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or
  greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore, Lake Huron from Presque Isle
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore, Lake Huron
  from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore, Lake
  Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore
  and Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM
  Off Shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 2 PM EST Tuesday
  with the largest waves expected around 3 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

&&

$$


Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
311 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

MIZ037-038-043-050-056-064-071-181200-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/
Mason-Lake-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Ludington, Grand Haven, Hart, Jenison,
Baldwin, Holland, Muskegon, and South Haven
311 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Visibility and road conditions
  may change rapidly over short distances in lake effect snow. Plan
  on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally
heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can
also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather,
visibility, and road conditions.

&&

$$

JC


Cold Weather Advisory


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
311 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074-181400-
/O.NEW.KGRR.CW.Y.0002.250218T0811Z-250218T1400Z/
Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton-
Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Alma, Jackson, Greenville, Big Rapids,
Lansing, Charlotte, Clare, St. Johns, Battle Creek, Mount
Pleasant, Reed City, and Ionia
311 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 15 below.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while outdoors. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and
gloves.

&&

$$

JC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
108 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

MIZ047>049-053>055-062-063-181400-
/O.CON.KDTX.CW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250218T1400Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Lapeer-St. Clair-
Including the cities of Saginaw, Midland, Lapeer, Sandusky, Bay
City, Bad Axe, Caro, and Port Huron
108 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero.

* WHERE...Bay, Huron, Lapeer, Midland, Saginaw, Sanilac, St. Clair,
  and Tuscola Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure
portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators inside.

&&

$$

AA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
108 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

MIZ060-061-068>070-075-076-181400-
/O.EXA.KDTX.CW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250218T1400Z/
Shiawassee-Genesee-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Detroit, Owosso, Warren, Flint, Pontiac,
Ann Arbor, and Howell
108 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero.

* WHERE...Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee,
  Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure
portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators inside.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
937 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099-181045-
/O.CON.KAPX.CW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250218T1400Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
937 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as -15 to -20 expected,
  especially away from Lake Michigan.

* WHERE...A portion of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not
  taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and
unfrozen water.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure
portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills
inside.

&&

$$


Special Weather Statement


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1126 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-
204-216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-
181600-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Lagrange,
Topeka, Shipshewana, Angola, Fremont, Kendallville, Ligonier,
Albion, Auburn, Garrett, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake, Winamac,
Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Rochester,
Akron, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne,
New Haven, Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport,
Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash,
North Manchester, Huntington, Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur,
Berne, Marion, Gas City, Upland, Hartford City, Montpelier,
Portland, Dunkirk, Michigan City, La Porte, Kingsbury, Fish Lake,
South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, Syracuse, Milford,
North Webster, Leesburg, Wanatah, La Crosse, Union Mills,
North Liberty, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Warsaw, Winona Lake,
Silver Lake, Mentone, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg,
Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, Mendon,
Coldwater, Bronson, Hillsdale, Jonesville, Litchfield,
Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Paw Paw Lake, Niles, New Buffalo,
Stevensville, Berrien Springs, Bryan, Edgerton, Wauseon,
Archbold, Swanton, Delta, Defiance, Sherwood, Hicksville,
Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, Paulding, Antwerp, Payne,
Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert,
Ohio City, Lima, and Spencerville
1126 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 /1026 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/

...COLD TEMPERATURES AND SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...

Recent snowfall along with gusty winds has led to drifting snow
across the region. Very cold temperatures will allow any snow that
drifts onto roadways to quickly freeze into black ice in some
areas. This will especially affect north-south oriented roadways
that are downwind of large open fields. Motorists should drive
with additional caution in these areas.

In addition, the gusty winds and temperatures falling back into
the single digits will bring winds chills of 5 to 15 below zero
by Tuesday morning.

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
415 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-190915-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
415 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Accumulating lake effect snow will continue through this evening.
Brisk winds will produce some blowing and drifting snow. See
ongoing advisories for details.

Below 0F overnight low temperatures are likely tonight for most
interior locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Lake effect snow chances continue through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National
Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: x.com/nwsgaylord

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
402 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-190915-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
402 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lake effect snowfall today with accumulations mainly to around a
half inch possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Minimum wind chills of zero to 15 below zero are expected Tuesday
through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

$$

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

AA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
402 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-190915-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
402 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Cold Weather Advisory in effect this morning for wind chills of 15 to
20 degrees below zero.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
402 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

MIZ082-083-190915-
Lenawee-Monroe-
402 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect for portions of Lake
Huron. See the latest Marine Weather Message (MWW) for additional
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
304 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-190815-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
304 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Minimum wind chill values will range from zero to minus 10 degrees
early this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Minimum wind chill values will range from zero to minus 10 degrees
early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
257 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-182000-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
257 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 /157 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Areas of black ice will persist on untreated roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$


Hydrologic Outlook


Hydrologic Outlook
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-202245-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
538 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...SPRING 2025 FLOOD OUTLOOK #1 FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

THE SPRING 2025 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT
WITHIN MAJOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER
BASINS.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...
BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS.

THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
FLOOD STAGE (MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  THE
CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...
MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  54   12    7   <5   <5   <5
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B    7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK              7.0    8.0    9.0 :  40   12    8   <5   <5   <5
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING             6.0   11.0   13.0 :  65   63   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON           12.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS)
AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS).  FOR EXAMPLE...THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR
SHERMAN...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET...HAS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 42 PERCENTAGE POINTS
ABOVE NORMAL.  DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICAL
PROBABILITY OF THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS
12 PERCENT.

THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD
RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW
FORECAST):

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              14.2   14.3   14.8   15.1   15.4   15.8   16.1
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     4.5    4.5    4.7    4.9    5.1    5.4    5.5
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               5.4    5.8    6.1    6.8    7.5    7.8    8.2
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              4.8    5.0    5.6    6.6    8.0    8.9    9.4
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               8.4    9.2   10.3   11.6   13.1   14.4   15.6
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             5.8    6.0    6.3    6.8    7.6    8.7    9.3

CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE
AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...THE AU SABLE
RIVER NEAR RED OAK...AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.  ELSEWHERE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION
COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (LOW
FLOW FORECAST):

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN               0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN
ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST
VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30
OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT
RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER.  ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF
FUTURE CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...
OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL AND SNOWPACK IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES AT SEVERAL GAGING LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS (JUNE-AUGUST) WAS
GENERALLY FROM 75 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN JUNE WAS THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE SUMMER WITH
PRECIPITATION 150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL...THINGS STARTED TO
DRY OUT IN JULY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THOUGH MOST AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A SIMILAR
TREND WAS NOTED IN AUGUST. PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL
(SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER) STARTED BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER (LESS THAN
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF
NORMAL) AND OCTOBER (25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). BUT NOVEMBER
PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...MORE THAN 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ANTRIM/WESTERN OTSEGO/NORTHWEST KALKASKA
COUNTIES MAINLY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT DURING
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL)
CONCENTRATED OVER THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AREAS. TRAVERSE CITY RECORDED ITS SECOND SNOWIEST DECEMBER ON
RECORD (48.2 INCHES)...GAYLORD ITS FOURTH SNOWIEST DECEMBER (57.9
INCHES)...AND HOUGHTON LAKE ITS 9TH SNOWIEST (23.4 INCHES).
JANUARY 2025 PRECIPITATION WAS DEPENDENT ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWBELT AREAS. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURES OF 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED MAINLY BETWEEN
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN (BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY M-68 AND M-72 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
RESPECTIVELY)...THE TYPICAL LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW BELT REGIONS.
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED
OVER NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY. SAULT
STE. MARIE RECORDED THEIR SECOND SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD (58.4
INCHES).

AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH...TOTAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT SAULT STE.
MARIE...GAYLORD...AND TRAVERSE CITY HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR
NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL. HOWEVER ALL MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS THUS FAR RUNNING 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
FOR THE SEASON...EXCEPT FOR ALPENA AT 88 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MONTH IS RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FROM M-55 NORTH TO M-32.

SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (NORTH OF M-32) AND IN THE 20TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE
ELSEWHERE. STREAMFLOWS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS ARE BELOW
NORMAL ON THE AU SABLE AND MANISTEE RIVERS...AND NEAR NORMAL
ELSEWHERE WITHE FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS DUE TO ICE ACTIVITY.

LINGERING D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
OSCODA...ALCONA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...IOSCO...GLADWIN...AND
ARENAC COUNTIES.

D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE...LEELANAU...MONTMORENCY...ALPENA...BENZIE...GRAND
TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...MANISTEE...WEXFORD...AND
MISSAUKEE COUNTIES.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY
IS LEANING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES NO
DISCERNIBLE TREND WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES (EQUAL
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE... NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION)....AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY
27, 2025. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN
IN THE ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/APX ALL LOWER CASE) FOR MORE RIVER
INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION
GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBSERVED
CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.

$$

JPB

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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