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Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
300 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2018

Westmoreland PA-Armstrong PA-
300 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  An Ice Jam in...
  Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...

* Until 500 PM EST Saturday.

* At 253 PM EST, county officials reported continued flooding on the
  Kiskiminetas River in Hyde Park Borough.  Water is still reported
  Enterprise Way, including at Penn Manufacturing.  Several roads
  remain closed due to flooding.  Voluntary evacuations remain in
  effect for several homes in the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Vandergrift...                    Leechburg...
  West Leechburg...                 Hyde Park...

Please report flooding by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4066 7960 4063 7956 4060 7959 4066 7968
      4068 7967 4068 7964



Small Craft Advisory

National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1251 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1251 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018


* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.


A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
251 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Another January Thaw is expected this weekend into early next week.
The warmest day is expected Monday, and periods of rain will develop
Monday and Monday night as a cold front crosses the region. The
combination of rain and snow melt may result in an elevated risk of
minor flooding and ice jam flooding.


Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at


Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1219 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018



During the winter and spring...the National Weather Service issues a
series of winter and spring Flood Potential Outlooks. These outlooks
estimate the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding)
across central Pennsylvania based on a current assessment of
hydrometeorological factors which contribute to river flooding.
Across central Pennsylvania these factors include recent
precipitation...soil moisture...snow cover and snow water
equivalent...river ice...streamflows...future weather conditions and
other. This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

This outlook covers the Susquehanna River Basin including the West
Branch...Juniata...and much of the Middle and Lower Susquehanna
Valley. Also covered are portions of the Upper and Lower Allegheny
Basins...including areas from Warren and McKean Counties in the

This outlook is valid Thursday January 18th 2018 through Thursday
February 2nd, 2018.

In central Pennsylvania...heavy rainfall is the primary factor which
leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall
can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year...even when
overall river flood potential is considered low or below average.

Detailed Discussion.

Two week river flood potential...The current potential for river
flooding is average.

Current flooding...Isolated flooding from ice jams
There are several active ice jams that are producing localized
flooding across the region.

Recent precipitation...Average.
Precipitation within the State College Forecast area during the last
30 days (December 18th - January 16th) is close to average across
the region.

Snow conditions...Below average.
Snow covers the entire region, which is fairly typical for this time
of year. Snow depths range from two to 12 inches with liquid water
equivalents up to 1.5 inches in snowiest spots. This is a little
below average for this time of year.

Snow data and information sources include the NOAA/NWS Operational
Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center ( US Army
Corps of Engineers...NWS Cooperative Observers...the Community Rain,
Hail and Snow Network (COCORAHS) and others. Snow depth and basin
average water equivalent estimates can be seen at and .

RIVER ICE...Above Average.
The cold weather over the last month has allowed significant river
ice formation. The rain and warm weather last week saw a break up and
some ice jam flooding. With the recent cold weather, the ice has
refrozen and remains signficant across the region.
With the recent cold snap, many rivers and streams are reporting
river ice which is generally above average in thickness for this time
of year.

Follow river ice conditions at .

Stream flow conditions...Average.
Most rivers and streams are affected by ice right now. With the
recent rains water levels are flowing close to average.

Real time water data is available from the United State Geological
Survey by visiting .

Soil moisture conditions...Below Average
The latest soil moisture reports show that the southeast half of the
area has below average soil moisture levels, while the rest of the
area is near average. This can be viewed by looking at the January
13, 2018 chart found at
regional_monitoring/palmer.gif . The most recent version (Jan 18,
2018) of the US Drought Monitor chart does show eastern portions of
the area experiencing abnormally dry to moderately dry conditions

Monitoring wells are mostly normal with a few stations below normal
across the region.

Current ground water conditions based on a 30 day moving average can
be found at .

Reservoir conditions...Below Average.
Most water supply reservoirs within central Pennsylvania are holding
below average storage for this time of are most flood
control reservoirs.

Future weather conditions...Milder and Westter
The region will be undergoing a rather significant weather pattern
change. A return to milder temperatures are expected. Initially it
will be dry, but a more active weather pattern is expected by early
next week.

Please visit
http://www.cpc/ for longer range weather outlooks.

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)...Normal.
Another tool used to assess the potential for river flooding is the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service...AHPS. AHPS generates
probabilistic river forecasts based on current basin
conditions...including river levels...soil moisture...extent and
condition of any snow pack...along with 50 years of history
temperatures and precipitation data. For this outlook period...AHPS
indicates that the likelihood of river flooding is near average
compared to what has been observed during this same time period
across small river basins in central Pennsylvania. It is quite
for water levels to be high this time of year and excessive rainfall
could lead to flooding. River information can be found at .

Summary of flood potential January 4 to January 18 2018:
The regional flood potential is below average for the next couple of
weeks...due mostly to the low snow pack and recent dry conditions.
While river ice is substantial, water levels are quite low and it
would take a significant amount of rainfall to cause river flooding.

Overview: Current Flooding....Ice Jam Flooding.
Recent Precipitation...Average.
Snow Conditions...Below.
River Ice...Above.
Stream Flow Conditions...Average.
Soil Moisture Conditions...Average.
Ground Water...Variable.
Reservoir Conditions...Below.
Overall Flood Potential...Average.

The next flood potential outlook will be issued on Thursday March 2nd.

Other hydrometeorological information can be found by visiting the
State College Internet Homepage at .



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Silver Spring, MD 20910
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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