Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0506 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161006-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0506 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.
.DAY ONE...Through tonight.
Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Active weather pattern continues into early next week.
- Strong to severe storms will be possible tonight, primarily
across NW Kansas into NW Missouri.
- Marginal risk for strong to severe storms on Saturday and
Sunday, once again primarily for NW Missouri.
- Best chance for severe weather comes Monday afternoon into
late Monday night. All severe hazards will be possible.
- Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible.
- Chances for strong to severe storms may linger into Tuesday.
- Hot temperatures expected today through Monday.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
453 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-161000-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
453 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight
There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms today.
All modes of severe storms are possible. Storms are expected to
develop in northern and western Iowa early this evening, moving
across central to eastern Iowa late overnight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
An active weather pattern will be in place through at least
Monday, with chances for strong to severe thunderstorms at times
each day. However the details of timing, location, and hazard
types will be better determined in the coming days.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible at times Friday through Monday.
$$
Hagenhoff
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
429 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-160930-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
429 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 /529 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 2 of 5 Damaging Wind Risk...up to 60 mph.
Level 1 of 5 Large Hail Risk...up to quarter size.
DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop
across portions of western Wisconsin and Iowa this evening, and
move east across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana after
midnight. While storms are expected to be in a gradually weakening
mode, a few strong to severe storms with wind gusts to 60 mph and
hail to quarter size are possible especially west of the Fox
River Valley in northern Illinois. Gusty winds will remain
possible farther to the east, but storms should gradually weaken
with eastern extent overnight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Saturday night and early Sunday...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 1 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Monday and Tuesday...
Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Level 2 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.
GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:
Moving toward the east-southeast at 35 to 40 mph.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
324 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ061-161000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Grant-
324 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Scattered to numerous severe storms possible this evening into
tonight with damaging wind as the main threat and large hail and
an isolated tornado as secondary threats.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Daily strong to severe storm potential Saturday through Monday
Night.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Any severe storm reports are appreciated.
.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...
A webinar is scheduled for 2:00 PM CDT Today.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
321 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-160830-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
321 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
Thunderstorms are likely to move across the outlook area tonight.
Some of the storms may be severe with damaging winds the primary
threat, potentially greater than 70 mph across portions of eastern
Iowa. A secondary threat for brief tornadoes also exists across
portions of eastern Iowa.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
Thunderstorms are expected at times through Tuesday. Some of these
storms could be severe. Stay tuned as details including the
location of the greatest severe weather threat, timing and the
primary hazards becomes better known.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today, but may be needed
for parts of the area tonight. Additional spotter activation
may be needed at times this weekend through early next week.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
106 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-160615-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
106 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.
.DAY ONE...Overnight through Friday night.
A complex of thunderstorms is expected to roll across at least
a portion of southern WI Friday night. There is a chance for
damaging winds if the storm complex is well-organized.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected Saturday night through
Tuesday. The best chance for strong to severe storms is on Sunday
and Monday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
355 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-152100-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
355 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.
.DAYS ONE THROUGH SEVEN...This afternoon through Wednesday.
More detailed information can be accessed at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/lsx/DssPacket.pdf
The Area Forecast Discussion is available at:
https://forecast.weather.gov/
product.php?issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&site=lsx
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasingly warm and humid conditions are expected Friday
through early next week, accompanied by opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms. The overall severe weather threat is
relatively low through the weekend.
- A greater severe weather threat could accompany a passing cold
front, but there is uncertainty regarding the timing ranging
from Monday evening to late Tuesday along with the magnitude.
NOTE: Starting May 29, 2026, this outlook product will be
discontinued. Please see the above products for more detailed
forecast information.
$$
WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
233 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-151945-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
233 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast tonight and early Friday
morning. Severe weather is not expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Several chances for thunderstorms are expected through the period.
Some of these storms could be strong to severe at times, with the
highest chances being Friday night and Saturday, then again on
Monday and Tuesday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.
$$
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