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Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1150 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will be possible Monday night and Tuesday
across far southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Severe
weather is not expected.


Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
559 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-191100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
559 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Arkansas, for
northern Louisiana, for eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Cooler and drier weather will continue this weekend with a few
showers edging our way late on Sunday well south of I-20. Into the
new work, we will continue to watch the evolution of the tropical
depression in the Gulf into a minimal hurricane by late Sunday.
The current National Hurricane Center track meanders the storm on
the tail of our cold front and will spread enough moisture inland
for showers in our area to become thunderstorms toward midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will not be needed through the
weekend.

$$

24


Hydrologic Outlook


Hydrologic Outlook
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-242200-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
459 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
Long range probabilistic outlook for the Colorado River basin in
West Central Texas

The National Weather Service office in San Angelo, Texas has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Brazos River Basin in west central Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate
the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.Example: the Colorado River near Silver has a
flood stage of 22 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the forecast
point at Silver will rise above 6.9 feet during the next 90 Days.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID [ 09/16/2020 - 12/15/2020 ]


LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Silver        22.0  3.0  3.3  4.0  5.8  6.9  7.6  9.9  11.7 13.0
 Robert Lee    33.0  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6
 Ballinger     18.0  5.3  5.4  7.3  9.7  11.3 13.5 15.4 18.2 24.2
 Stacy         40.0  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4
 Winchell      26.0  3.1  3.3  3.8  4.2  5.7  7.6  8.8  11.1 14.7
 San Saba      30.0  2.6  2.9  3.5  5.7  7.3  12.3 15.7 21.6 28.2
Elm Creek
 Ballinger      7.0  4.0  4.0  4.1  4.5  4.6  4.7  5.0  5.2  6.2
North Concho River
 Sterling City 17.0  7.0  7.0  7.9  8.5  8.9  9.3  10.5 12.2 13.3
 Carlsbad      12.0  4.2  4.5  5.3  5.7  6.0  6.8  7.7  8.0  9.5
Middle Concho River
 Tankersley    18.0  5.8  6.8  8.4  10.0 10.2 10.7 12.1 16.5 28.0
Spring Creek
 Tankersley    14.0  4.2  4.4  4.7  5.3  5.6  5.8  6.2  6.5  7.7
Dove Creek
 Knickerbocker 26.0  3.3  3.3  3.6  4.1  4.2  4.2  4.3  5.6  9.1
South Concho River
 Christoval    10.0  2.5  2.5  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.7  2.7  2.8  3.8
Pecan Creek
 San Angelo    10.0  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4  1.4
Concho River
 San Angelo    26.0  1.8  1.8  2.1  2.3  2.6  2.7  2.9  3.6  5.8
 Paint Rock    26.0 13.3  13.5 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.5 17.0 20.5 26.5
Pecan Bayou
 Cross Cut     33.0  4.8  4.8  4.8  5.3  7.4  9.5  15.3 18.2 19.8
 Brownwood     20.0  6.7  6.7  6.7  7.3  7.9  8.3  9.1  9.6  11.8
 Mullin        40.0  1.1  1.3  3.2  4.2  8.8  9.9  11.2 15.1 19.9
Brady Creek
 Brady         26.0  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.9  5.5  8.1
San Saba River
 Menard        18.0  3.2  3.5  3.8  5.1  5.7  6.8  9.6  11.7 16.9
 Brady         30.0  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.8  4.9  5.6  8.1
 San Saba      24.0  3.5  3.6  3.7  5.6  10.0 17.8 21.1 23.4 30.4
North Llano River
 Junction      21.0  8.3  8.3  8.5  9.1  9.4  10.0 11.1 18.7 21.8
Llano River
 Junction      16.0  1.9  1.9  2.0  2.8  4.2  7.5  12.1 13.9 20.8
 Mason         23.0  1.0  1.3  1.8  3.1  4.2  6.4  10.0 10.5 15.0
Beaver Creek
 Mason         12.0  1.4  1.4  1.6  2.5  3.0  3.5  3.7  5.7  6.5



Oak Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1997.4  1997.5  1997.6 1997.9 1998.0 1998.3 1998.9 1999.5 2001.2


Lake Coleman
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1716.0 1716.2  1718.0  1718.7 1719.4 1719.6 1720.1 1720.7 1722.1


Lake Brownwood
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
  1423.7  1423.8  1424.1 1424.8 1425.3 1425.7 1426.1 1426.4 1427.4

Brady Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1739.2 1739.2  1739.2 1739.3 1739.4 1740.5 1741.9 1742.5 1744.1



This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?sjt

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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