000 FXUS66 KSEW 212155 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 255 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front and associated upper level trough continues to bring rain across Western Washington this afternoon, with activity wrapping up by Wednesday morning. A quick ridge will dry the region out Wednesday night and Thursday before another system swings through Friday and Saturday. Remainder of the weekend into next week appears unsettled with multiple chances of showers. High temperatures will climb from the fifties and sixties, to the low seventies by next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Late season winter-style shortwave trough continues to advance southward from B.C. Canada into Washington this afternoon and evening. A jet max sits on the leeward side of the low, feeding some moisture into Washington. This moisture will start to shut off once the low reaches into the state by late tonight/Wednesday morning. Radar continues to show rain falling over much of western Washington this afternoon. The heaviest of the rain is shifting more from the coast/Olympics this morning, over into Puget Sound/Cascades this afternoon. Tonight into Wednesday: the rain will taper back to showers (although a convergence zone is possible once the cold front swings through Snohomish County). QPF/rainfall totals will range from around a half an inch in Puget Sound/lowlands, to around an inch in the Olympics/coast, and amounts exceeding 1-2 inches in the Cascades. River and urban flooding impacts are not expected. An upper level ridge will sneak behind the upper level trough Wednesday-Thursday. This will dry out a majority of the coverage area (minus some lingering showers in the Cascades). A few cloud breaks are possible Wednesday afternoon, as well as into Thursday. The next shortwave trough/cold front from Canada approaches Washington Friday, with a return chance of showers. Snow levels/freezing levels will drop down to 3,500 feet with this system, and will cooler air aloft, there will be a conditional chance with thunder with this system, from King County northwards to the Canadian border. High temperatures will increase from the mid 50s Tuesday, to the low and mid 60s Wednesday into Friday. Lows will range from the low to upper 40s. Breezy winds of 10 to 15 mph (gustiest winds near the Strait of Juan de Fuca) out the southwest Tuesday, will diminish to around 5 to 10 mph southwesterlies Wednesday into Friday. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A little bit of disagreement still exists this weekend into next week, but most ensembles/deterministic models point to unsettled weather continuing into the long term. A quick ridge may dry out parts of the region Saturday night/Sunday, but shower chances will continue this weekend into next week. High temperatures start to approach the low 70s by Monday/Tuesday, with lows also increasing into the low 50s. Winds remain light out of the south. HPR && .AVIATION...Pretty widespread IFR conditions with light rain especially through the interior TAF locations. Conditions are expected to improve during the the evening, with post-frontal convergence zone showers possible late Tuesday evening. The most likely scenario is that the convergence zone - if it develops to remain north of KBFI. Southerly flow 5-15 kt over the interior with west to southwest winds increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt along the coast and strait - KHQM/KCLM. KSEA...IFR conditions with light rain, with rain easing by 22/04z and some improvement in ceilings and vis. Convergence zone is expected to stay north of KSEA/KBFI. S/SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt remaining elevated into Wed morning with lower/MVFR ceilings persisting. && .MARINE...A strong frontal system crossing area waters, boosting winds and seas to SCA levels over the coastal waters and through the Strait of Juan de Fuca into Wednesday. Seas will rise above 10 ft across the offshore waters overnight and continue rise to as high as 16 ft by Wednesday especially over the northern coastal zones. Waves will be steep with short period waves dominating. Another frontal system may pass through area waters on Friday, bringing elevated seas and breezy winds. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

000 FXUS66 KPQR 212147 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 247 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Slow moving front continues to move southeast, gradually blanketing the region with widespread rain. Rain will become scattered showers tonight into Wednesday. Dry and warmer Thursday before becoming unsettled for Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Satellite imagery around 2 PM Tuesday, front slowly moves southeast bringing widespread rain through most of the region (North of Eugene and Newport). With this front bringing northwesterly winds at the surface, lowlands and south areas of the region are expected to receive less rain due to the rain shadow effect. Rain will turn showery this evening, then isolated overnight for areas west of the Cascades. Behind this front, a closed low moving south southeast through western British Columbia will reach western Washington around 5 AM Wednesday. This low will then drift southeast into northeast Oregon through the rest of Wednesday. The core of this low will just miss our region, resulting in showers, similar to today. With northwesterly winds and the closed low coming from the north, precipitation along the Coast Range will be limited, with majority of the precipitation along the Cascades. Through Wednesday evening, chances to exceed 0.5 in of precipitation over 24 hours is 10-30% chance for the valley lowlands and 50-70% for coastal areas north of Tillamook. With the aforementioned low just missing our region, instability will be rather limited, therefore thunderstorm chances will be low across the Cascade foothills. The high Cascades will receive snow but snow levels will remain well above mountain passes. Thursday, a weak shortwave ridge builds over the region as the closed low moves east over the northern Rockies. This will bring sunny skies and warm temperatures up into the upper 60s (20-30% to exceed 70) for the interior lowlands and mid 50s/upper 50s along the coast. -JH .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue through at least Saturday. WPC`s 500 mb cluster analysis indicates a week shortwave could bring light showers Friday followed by an upper level low bringing slightly more showers to the region Saturday. Timing and amount of precipitation continues to remain uncertain, though temperatures are expected to be near seasonal normals. The pattern becomes a bit more uncertain Sunday on whether troughing will still be present to continue showers. By Monday, dry conditions are expected, with 20% of clusters suggesting a weak trough approaching and 80% of clusters suggesting a ridge overhead or nearby (location and timing still uncertain). This brings significant uncertainty in temperatures with NBM 25th to 75th percentiles for inland valleys ranging anywhere from upper 60s to low 80s. -JH && .AVIATION...The front is in the process of moving ashore, and rain has begun at almost all areas. Cigs at the northern/central coast (KAST) are bouncing between IFR and MVFR, while inland cigs are high end MVFR/low end VFR. By 00z Wed, the coast sees 90%+ of firmly IFR cigs. Southern terminals (KONP/KEUG) remain VFR as precipitation is heavier up north, but will begin to lower within the next few hours, by 00z Wed. Between 06-10z Wed, conditions transition to post-frontal, and most terminals will trend back to VFR, with the valley transitioning faster. By 09z Wed, even the coast only sees 30-40% chance of MVFR or lower ceilings. West/southwesterly winds will also begin to pick up around that time, with gusts for most areas up to 20 kts (25-30 kt at KAST). PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions are currently in place, but all surrounding terminals have already dropped to high end MVFR; expecting a drop in cigs down to MVFR within an hour or two, by 00z Wed. Conditions trend back to VFR around 08z, with less than 10% chance of MVFR conditions continuing past that time. Winds will pick up slightly, with top gusts up to closer to 15-16 kt from the west at that time. /JLiu && .MARINE...The front is passing through, bringing higher seas and gustier winds in the north and central waters. Winds are gusting to 25 kt or so north of Cape Foulweather, spreading southward to PZZ273 by 03Z, persisting at times through Tuesday night and Wednesday. With the persistent northwest fetch in the post- frontal environment, also expecting seas to become fairly steep Tuesday night into Wednesday with greatest impacts to PZZ251 as seas rise to 10 to 13 ft with a period 9 to 10 seconds. As we move into Thursday, calmer winds/seas return for a day followed by yet another weather disturbance moving into the region from the NNW late Friday/Saturday continuing the rather progressive and active weather pattern. Seas likely rise to 7-10 feet at 8-9 seconds on Saturday before decreasing Sunday into early next week - wave steepness may again be a concern Saturday. -mh/JLiu && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251-252-271- 272. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

000 FXUS66 KMFR 212334 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 254 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...An upper low is seen in GOES-West satellite imagery digging southward through British Columbia this afternoon. This system is ushering a cold front into the PacNW this afternoon with radar showing widespread rain occuring across Washington and northwest through north-central Oregon. Rain has progressed southward across western Oregon to a line roughly from Florence to Eugene as of 245 pm. Throughout the remainder of the afternoon and through tonight the center of the upper low will advance into south-central Washington and then into northeast Oregon by Wednesday afternoon. This transition will allow areas of rain and cooler air to spread into southwest Oregon but likely leaving most of the valleys south of the Umpqua Divide dry. Snow levels will dip to between 5000-5500 feet by about daybreak and by 10 am or so isolated areas from Crater Lake through Willamette Pass may see a skiff to up to an inch of snow on the gassy/wooded areas. Winter-related road impacts should be slim to none. High temperatures Wednesday will wind up 5-15 degrees cooler than today`s, coolest across the Oregon Cascades and the east side. While temperatures will be cooler, the gusty northwest winds will be the main story that folks will likely talk about. Afternoon breezes on the order of 15-20 mph should be common across exposed areas of southwest Oregon and Western Siskiyou County. The mountains and east side will experience afternoon winds increasing to 20-30 mph with frequent higher gusts to 40 mph. Things quickly settle down with fair and warmer weather on tap for Thursday. Stavish .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday, Memorial Day weekend. The main weather feature will be upper low which will move down the British Columbia coast on Friday. This low will drop into Washington Friday night into Saturday. There are differences in the strength of this low but timing is similar. This low will move away from the region late Saturday. Much of Friday will be dry with this approaching system along with near normal temperatures. A cold front will pass through the region Saturday morning with a chance of showers mainly north of the Umpqua Divide. For those people traveling across the high passes, there could be a mix of rain and snow or even snow showers Saturday morning with snow levels falling to between 5500 and 5000 feet. No appreciable accumulation is expected on the roads. Conditions dry out Saturday afternoon as the upper low moves away from the area. Saturday daytime temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs in the 40s at Crater Lake, and 50s at Lake of the Woods and Howard Prairie. Conditions on Saturday could be similar to tomorrow (Wednesday) as the upper lows are of similar strength and their cold fronts are forecast to move through in the morning. Temperatures should rebound to near normal readings on Sunday with weak high pressure possible. The models begin to differ more on Monday. Just over half the models show stronger high pressure nearby, a third of the models show high pressure farther east over the Idaho/Montana border, and a small percentage of the models show lower pressure which implies more clouds and cooler temperatures. Right now, the warmer solutions are depicted in the forecast with highs in the lower 80s in the western valleys but this could change with updated forecasts. To summarize: No heatwaves for the holiday weekend. Dry weather and near normal temperatures are forecast Friday (morning and afternoon), Sunday, and Monday. Saturday will likely see the most inclement weather, especially for those in the mountains with cooler temperatures and light rain or snow showers early in the day. Sandler && .AVIATION...22/00Z TAFs...Plenty of high clouds streaming into the region ahead of a weak disturbance, with MVFR ceilings starting to move into northwest Coos County. While this disturbance won`t bring too much in the way of precipitation, it will strengthen the marine push into inland areas, with IFR/LIFR conditions at North Bend and MVFR ceilings moving into Roseburg this evening and possibly Medford late tonight. Confidence is fairly high for deteriorating conditions tonight as the disturbance comes into the region. As the upper level disturbance moves southwards, northwesterly winds will start to increase aloft early Wednesday morning, and gusty winds will start to surface late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon, continuing through the TAF period. At the surface, winds will be strongest over ridges and east of the Cascades. -CSP && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM Tuesday, May 21, 2024...Seas are anticipated to stay fairly consistent with current conditions through Wednesday with small fluctuations. Periods of small craft advisory conditions are expected through Wednesday evening. However, conditions will subside here and there before returning again. This is due to a low pressure system moving southward across Oregon. By Thursday, we are expecting to see a break in hazardous conditions over the waters through the weekend. -Schaaf/Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ MTS/RES/BMS

000 FXUS66 KEKA 212215 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 315 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Slightly below normal interior temperatures are expected through the weekend. Gusty northwest winds will persist today and diminish some on Wednesday. At the coast low clouds, fog and drizzle are expected to return tonight and will be intermittent through the week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level low in British Columbia is dropping southeast into the Pacific Northwest. This is expected to bring fog and low clouds to the coast tonight. This trailing frontal boundary is expected to be dry this far south, but it may provide some lift to the marine layer and bring some drizzle to the coast. Wednesday this will bring cooler temperatures to the inland area and the coastal stratus may struggle to clear out. Highs in the interior are expected to only be in the low 70s while the coast may see highs only in the mid 50s. Winds will diminish on Wednesday as well, especially in the north. Thursday and Friday is expected to see a slight rebound in the interior temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Some clouds are expected to linger at the coast. The offshore flow isn`t showing a very strong signal, but with the moderately cool temperatures aloft this should weaken the inversion and that may allow some clearing each afternoon. Saturday another upper level low drops down from the northwest bringing cooler inland temperatures, highs only in the low to mid 70s in the interior. There isn`t a strong signal for offshore flow so stratus is expected to persist. The inversion may be weak enough for some clearing at the coast during the day, but its not expected to last through the night. Sunday and Monday the NBM is showing temperatures warming back into the 80s in the interior. MKK && .AVIATION...Mostly SKC and unlimited Vis prevailed across the region and TAF sites today; the exception was some scattered stratus reported at ACV...and a very brief bout of BKN010 due to sea spray. Gusty northerly winds (especially at CEC) were slower to develop today and were not as robust as the previous day. A plethora of mixed clouds were situated well off the coast, and will most likely slide onshore through the night. The clouds will be enhanced by the tail-end of a cold front expected to impact the coastal terminals Wednesday morning. ACV and CEC are expected to experience MVFR/IFR conditions with the possibility of light drizzle. Above ground winds will increase near the ACV airport producing the threat of marginal LLWS. Following the unremarkable frontal passage, conditions should improve to VFR and coastal surface winds will increase Wednesday afternoon. /TAA && .MARINE...The steep waves and strong winds have started to diminish this afternoon and these will continue to diminish tonight and Wednesday morning. These will increase again Wednesday afternoon. They are not expected to be as strong as they have been the last few days, but gale force gusts remain possible south of Cape Mendocino. These stronger winds are expected to persist into Thursday. At this point it is uncertain if a Gale warning will be need in the southern waters. It looks like it will be marginal in most areas aside from immediately south of Cape MEndocino. Friday and Saturday models are showing winds dropping to 15 to 20 kt and are expected to continue to drip Sunday and Monday. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450. Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

000 FXUS66 KMTR 212331 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 431 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 Summer-like pattern to persist through Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1237 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 The broad tilted upper level troughing pattern over California has brought some weak offshore winds over interior areas, causing some warmer temperatures and drier conditions. The offshore flow will help inhibit some of the marine layer from reaching inland tonight into Wednesday morning allowing for another blue sky morning for interior regions. On the other hand, the weak onshore flow along the coast will bring some low clouds along the coastal areas, especially near Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley tonight. Models show interior regions will be on the drier side this evening with minimum relative humidity values between 14-30%. Overnight temperatures are relatively the same as last night with minimums in the mid to upper 40`s to low to mid 50`s. Some isolated areas will see a slight increase 2-3 degrees higher. Temperatures will start to trend cooler on Wednesday, but still will be relatively warmer than usual with inland max temperatures in the low 80s to high 70s, as coastal areas will see temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s. The onshore flow along the coast will increase on Wednesday, which will help increase some relative humidity values between 20-55%. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1237 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 The low pressure system that sits in the northwest, will drop south a bit on Thursday and will move across the Pacific northwest over the weekend, which will bring stronger onshore flow and cooler temperatures. Thursday will start to see max temperatures in the mid 70s inland and upper 50s to 60s along the coast. Friday through the weekend, max temperatures are expected to drop between 5 to 7 degrees below average over the weekend with mid 50s to low 60s coastline and upper 60s to low 70s inland. With the stronger onshore flow, expect the gloomy mornings pattern to continue along the coast, with slow clearing in the mornings. Ensemble models show no impactful precipitation associated with this trough as it moves through our area this weekend, but if precipitation does occur this weekend, expect the best chance to occur near the coast. On Sunday into Monday, a weak ridging will develop over our area bringing back some slightly warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 431 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will see IFR/MVFR CIGs starting in the early morning and lasting into the late morning. Expect winds to become light to moderate overnight for most areas. Moderate winds build into Wednesday afternoon, with gusty winds expected along the immediate coast, in portions of the North Bay, and around the SF Bay. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect moderate west winds overnight. Gusty westerly winds arrive Wednesday afternoon with peak gusts around 26 kts. These winds reduce into the early night, but stay moderate. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR LAsts through the late night with IFR/MVFR CIGs arriving in the early morning and lasting into the late morning. Expect light winds overnight with more moderate westerly winds arriving Wednesday afternoon and lasting into the night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 431 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 Expect strong and gusty northwest winds continue over the coastal waters through the mid week, with gale force gusts across the outer waters. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves with these strong winds. The pattern changes and winds are expected to reduce into the late week && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SO LONG TERM....SO AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

000 FXUS66 KOTX 212307 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 407 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A wet low pressure system will bring steady rain across the region into Wednesday. Snow levels will drop down to pass level Tuesday night with wet snow accumulations for travel over the Cascade crest. Another weather system will move in on Friday and Saturday bringing more unsettled weather into the Memorial Day weekend. Monday will be the warmest day of the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Wednesday night: A warm front with a modest plume of moisture is making its march across the Northwest this afternoon. Radar mosaic is filling in across the region as stratiform precipitation develops behind the front. The leading edge is beginning to move into the Washington Palouse, Spokane Area, and Northeast Mountains at the 2pm hour. Accumulations will be light but steady, and soaking rains are expected across much of the region through this evening. The trailing cold front will move into the Cascades around midnight tonight. This will shift the moisture plume eastward with drying occurring in the lee of the Cascades. Snow levels will crash down to around 3,000 feet in the Cascades at this time. Slop over moisture across the Cascade crest will result in a transition of rain to snow for Stevens Pass and Washington Pass. Lee side cyclogenesis will occur in central Washington with moisture wrapping around the center of the low across the northern mountains into the northern portions of the Cascades. This will be the axis where stratiform precipitation will continue into at least early Wednesday. A dry slot punching across southeast Washington will turn off the faucet for the basin into the Palouse and Spokane Area where a break in precipitation is anticipated. The upper level low with a minus 27 celsius cold pool will be squarely over the Inland Northwest by early Wednesday afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will promote convection into the afternoon, but the coverage and intensity of convection will be limited by the cooler temperatures at the surface. It will also be limited by drier air being entrained into the region across the southeast portion of the forecast area. We will then see showers diminishing through the evening on Wednesday from northwest to southeast. Light northwest flow into the southern and central Idaho Panhandle will keep showers persisting there into the overnight hours on Wednesday. * Rainfall: accumulations have been trending drier with models indicating a good punch of dry air moving in behind the cold front. We will still see a decent amount of rainfall with much of the eastern half of the forecast area expected to pick up at least between 0.15 to 0.30 inches. The Okanogan Highlands, Northeast Mountains and Idaho Panhandle looks to pick up closer to a half of an inch, and some areas potentially picking up near 0.75 inches when all said and done. This will all be beneficial rainfall with base flows for our streams and rivers running low at this time. * Snowfall: Main impacts from snow will be for travel over Washington Pass and Stevens Pass once the cold front moves through after midnight. Total snow accumulations looks to be between 2 to 4 inches. Road temperatures will start out warm, but snow intensity does look to be enough to overcome the warmer road temperatures with slushy accumulations possible over these passes by early Wednesday morning. Sherman Pass may also see light snow, but the coldest air will track south of this pass and may just see non-accumulating snowfall. * Thunderstorm potential: Doesn`t look great for Wednesday afternoon due to the cool surface temperatures. It will take breaks in the cloud cover for sufficient warming to spark off convection. Best potential for a 15-20% for thunderstorms will be over the Pasayten Wilderness to the Okanogan Highlands and over the southeast portion of the forecast area (Northeast Blue Mtns into the Palouse). * Temperatures: Wednesday will be the coldest day this week. The precipitation, cold air advection, and cloud cover will dampen our warming with highs generally in the 50s. /SVH Thursday through Saturday: The Inland Northwest will be under the influence of upper-level troughing over this multi-day span with several shortwaves dropping through from Canada. This will not only keep temperatures in check with readings near or cooler than average but also keep a threat for showers and thunderstorms just about every day. The highest precipitation chances will focus over the Idaho Panhandle and northern mountains but the Basin will carry at least a 20-30% chance at times. As different shortwaves drop into the mean trough, they will cool the upper-levels with 500mb temperatures near -21C at times supporting afternoon CAPES between 200-600 J/kg. This will be sufficient for a handful of thunderstorms with the main hazards being heavy downpours of rain and small hail along with lightning strikes. At this time, models show some of the heaviest rain cores with showers Thursday through Saturday where pockets of a quarter of an inch or more will be possible. Although Sunday will keep a mention of showers and storms, instability parameters will be on the decline as 500mb temperatures warm suggesting less rainfall with any cells. 85% of the ensemble solutions support a shift in the weather pattern late Sunday into early next week with a low pressure becoming reestablished over the Gulf of AK and heights building northward from the Great Basin into the Inland NW. The exact placement and amplification of these features carries moderate uncertainty. Forecast is leaning toward dry conditions for Monday which is supported by 70% of the ensembles. This decreases to 50% by Tuesday and further later in the week. There is high confidence that these upcoming precipitation chances will come with a moisture trajectory from the southwest indicative of a warmer environment. This raises some concern that instability parameters could be on the rise with more thunderstorm activity. Stay tuned as we continue to dial this period in. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A moist frontal system pushing east of the Cascades will result in lower ceilings and light rain. Ceilings are expected to lower down to between 3-6 kft agl. in the lee of the Cascades for KEAT-KOMK-KEPH-KMWH. Rain moving into extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle later today (after 22Z) will bring the potential for MVFR conditions tonight with ceilings down to between 1-4 kft agl and visibility down to 4SM. Low clouds will continue into Wednesday morning with numerous showers continuing and a low potential for isolated thunderstorms where sun breaks occur. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for ceilings lowering to MVFR after 02Z Wednesday over extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. HREF shows at least a 70% chance of CIGS lowering to MVFR for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE- KPUW, and there is a 30% chance for IFR conditions developing at times. For KEAT to KMWH, there is a 80-90% chance of conditions remaining VFR through the TAF period. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 45 56 41 64 44 65 / 100 70 20 20 20 20 Coeur d`Alene 45 54 41 59 44 62 / 100 90 30 30 30 30 Pullman 43 51 39 59 40 62 / 100 80 30 10 10 10 Lewiston 51 61 46 66 47 70 / 100 70 40 20 0 10 Colville 40 56 36 64 39 63 / 100 100 30 70 40 50 Sandpoint 43 52 39 57 44 59 / 100 90 50 60 60 60 Kellogg 45 49 42 56 45 60 / 100 90 70 50 30 40 Moses Lake 42 60 43 72 45 73 / 70 50 30 0 0 0 Wenatchee 45 59 46 71 48 70 / 50 50 20 0 0 10 Omak 43 62 42 73 45 70 / 70 90 20 20 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$

000 FXUS66 KPDT 212338 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 438 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 Updated aviation discussion .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday....Active mid-week weather pattern is occurring as a Canadian low is currently sweeping a warm front across the region, with stratiform rain overspreading today followed by breezy winds and a chance at showers and occasional thunderstorm tomorrow before clearing out in Friday. The aforementioned precipitation overspreading the region is expected to continue through the evening and overnight hours, heaviest across the Blue Mountains. Probability of 24 hour rainfall amounts shows high confidence (70-100%) that locations across the foothills and into the mountains themselves will receive 0.5 inch; increasing this threshold to 1.0 inch, there remains moderate confidence (40-60%). Into Wednesday, the focus shifts to then showers, thunderstorms, and breezy winds. Showers will be a bit more scattered in nature than compared to the widespread stratiform rain ongoing today, but with moderate to high confidence still (60-90%). Instability has seen a noteworthy jump, with a bit more widespread coverage of low amounts of CAPE from the Ochoco-John Day Highlands through the Blues and Wallowas. Still, with how weak parameters are, there`s low confidence (10-30%) in thunderstorms, and any that do occur should just have occasional lightning and perhaps some locally breezy winds, though with cooler temperatures aloft the chance of graupel with an isolated storm cannot be ruled out. On the subject of winds, confidence is moderate to high (60-80%) in widespread wind gusts of 30-50 mph, strongest across the lower Columbia Basin of Oregon. A wind advisory for this region has been issued in response with the expectation of gusts 45+ mph. Finally, as this system cools our temperatures, snow levels descend to between 4.5-5k feet. This should promote late season mountain snow, heaviest across the Strawberry Mountains into the Wallowas, and even a noteworthy amount falling in the Blue Mountains. Heavy accumulations should be limited to the highest peaks and crests of this region, but there is moderate confidence (60%) in accumulations of 1-3 inches for some of the passes including locations such as Santiam Pass and Tollgate. Late Thursday into early Friday the low progresses eastwards out of our region, with a chance of some light wrap around moisture possible in the Wallowas but by Friday morning we should be dry and cleared out with another system expected into the weekend. Goatley/87 Key Messages: 1. Breezy winds Friday and Saturday. 2. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms return late in the week. 3. Above normal high temperatures Sunday onward. The extended period is characterized by an upper level low pressure system dropping along the British Columbia coast before driving through the Pacific Northwest early in the holiday weekend. This synoptic feature, coupled with a passing cold front, will allow for a pressure gradient to develop along the Cascades that will cause breezy conditions to occur over the east slopes of the Cascades, Simcoe Highlands, Lower Columbia Basin, foothills of the northern Blue Mountains, and the Kittitas Valley Friday and Saturday - peaking during the afternoon hours. Confidence in elevated winds is high (90%), especially on Saturday as the ECMWF EFI highlights unclimatologically high sustained winds and gusts across the aforementioned areas. Thus, wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph on Friday and 30 to 40 mph on Saturday will be possible out of the west northwest. Confidence in these wind gusts is moderate to high (60-80%) as the NBM a 70-90% chance of 39 mph gusts across the Simcoe Highlands on Friday before bumping up to a 75-95% chance of wind gusts of 47 mph on Saturday. Saturday does look to be the windier day, which is also advertised by the GFS and NAM as incurring a pressure gradient of 9- 10 mb between Portland and Spokane - just shy of the normal advisory threshold of 12 mb. However, these forecast gradients may continue to trend upward as the NBM showcases a 70-80% chance of 47 mph winds on Saturday across the northern Blue Mountain foothills and Kittitas Valley. Thus, there is a moderate (70%) chance of a Wind Advisory being issued for the earlier mentioned areas on Saturday. The upper level low and associated cold front arrival will also bring showers along the Cascades Friday afternoon before extending across the Blue Mountains and foothills Friday evening through Saturday afternoon. Minimal rain amounts are expected along the foothills (less than 0.05 of an inch), with only 0.10-0.20 of an inch expected at elevation over the Cascades and Blues. The only exception will be over Wallowa County, which should get 0.15-0.25 of an inch. This additional moisture will also allow for the potential for afternoon thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday, with a much better chance on Saturday. Friday`s storm chances (10-15%) will primarily stay confined over Wallowa county, extending south and west over the Blue Mountains and John Day-Ochoco Basin on Saturday. Storm probabilities will also bump up to a 15-25% chance as SBCAPE increases from 50 J/kg to 150 J/kg and shear increasing from 20-30 knots Friday to 30-45 knots on Saturday. One thing to note, is that these higher SBCAPE and shear values are primarily associated with the GFS solution, which does drive the upper low further south across the area - correlating to a better potential for thunderstorms. At this time, 52% of ensembles on Friday and 60% on Saturday align more with a shallower path of the upper level low as advertised by the ECMWF. As such, it is expected that isolated, discrete storm cells will have the potential for development as the low tracks over mountainous terrain over the eastern mountains, but will not exhibit severe characteristics in the form of large hail, damaging winds, or tornadic activity. The upper low pressure continues to depart to our east over the latter half of the holiday weekend (Saturday evening onward), drying conditions and clearing skies into the beginning of the workweek. This is a result of an upper level ridge that builds across the Pacific Northwest as an upper level low pressure lingers over the Gulf of Alaska and slowly drops south. Guidance is in good agreement of this feature as 86% of ensemble members show an upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest and southwest flow aloft on Monday. This flow will advect warmer and drier air into the region to allow above normal high temperatures to arrive Monday onward as highs will break into the low to mid-80s across lower elevations of the Basin. Confidence in reaching high temperatures of 80 degrees or more on Monday is as followed: 72% for Pasco, 6t4% for Hermiston, 69% for The Dalles, 55% for Yakima, 45% for Pendleton and Redmond, 44% for Bend, and 42% for Walla Walla via the NBM. These probabilities ramp up to between 80-90% on Tuesday as southwest flow aloft continues to enhance. 75 && .AVIATION...00Z TAFS...General VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. There will be some rain and rain showers through the evening with PDT and ALW having a chance of dropping to MVFR through the night until 06-08Z due to rain and lowering cigs to around BKN- OVC040. Conditions improve a little overnight through Wednesday morning before a return of showers midday. Some breezy winds will increase overnight (10-20kts) becoming 15-30kts on Wednesday with gusts around 35kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 44 56 42 67 / 100 70 50 0 ALW 47 59 45 68 / 100 70 40 10 PSC 50 64 48 74 / 90 50 20 0 YKM 40 64 41 74 / 40 30 10 0 HRI 47 62 45 72 / 100 50 30 0 ELN 40 59 43 70 / 40 30 10 0 RDM 42 54 31 66 / 70 30 10 0 LGD 43 52 39 61 / 100 80 60 10 GCD 43 53 37 61 / 100 80 80 0 DLS 47 61 46 70 / 70 40 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ044-508. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....75 AVIATION...97

000 FXUS65 KREV 211959 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1259 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Progressive weather pattern across the West tosses a few upper level waves into the Sierra and western Nevada this week and into the holiday weekend. Plan on enhanced afternoon and evening breezes Wednesday and Saturday, as well as some low chances (10-15%) for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons starting on Friday. Forecast temperatures will hover around seasonal values. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Enhanced breezes will develop on Wednesday and Saturday afternoons this week bringing periods of choppy lakes and bumpy aviation conditions. Otherwise, plan on typically breezy afternoons through the holiday weekend. * We`re still looking at a 10-20% chance for some Sierra showers and isolated thunder starting Friday afternoon with the potential persisting through the holiday weekend. * Takeaway: Outdoor plans this weekend? Be prepared for periods of gusty afternoon winds for much of the region Wed and Sat. Watch the skies for building clouds and listen for thunder. When thunder roars, go indoors (sturdy building or vehicle, not a tent). Details: A rather progressive weather pattern in place across the West will allow for multiple shortwaves and troughs to migrate through the Sierra and western Nevada. Overall, these troughs will be dry and result in wind increases and direction shifts. The better potential for wetting rains through the long weekend will be across Oregon and Idaho. That doesn`t mean we will be completely out of the precipitation game, but our chances will be around 10-20% at the most from Friday through Memorial Day and primarily along the Sierra. This is subject to change day-to-day since it will rely heavily on the trajectory of the passing troughs through the region. Don`t check the forecast once and assume you`re "good to go" for the weekend. Weather forecasts are updated 2/day as improved, higher resolution data becomes available. WINDS: The primary concern over the next several days will be the potential for enhanced wind gusts on Wednesday and Saturday afternoons. Peak wind gusts will be around 30-40 mph late Wednesday as the dry front passes through the region. While there may be a period of choppy lake conditions late in the day, the rapidly shifting wind direction may prevent alignment with the fetch of Lake Tahoe or Pyramid Lake long enough to warrant lake wind advisories. SHOWERS: There is a less than a 5% chance for showers today through Thursday. The potential for showers and storms is slightly higher on Friday, but still topping out at 20% for the Sierra. The storm potential over the Holiday weekend isn`t zero, but it is on a downward trend with chances less than 10% for the Sierra. Just keep in mind this may change with how the shortwaves drift through the region. Early Look at Next Week: Ensemble clusters show a ridge signal for the Great Basin that will be in contention with a trough over the Eastern Pacific. For now the ridge signal appears to be "winning" the synoptic battle with a trend for drier conditions and a general warming trend. Any west or eastward shift in the ridge axis will dictate the extent of warming or drying we will experience following Memorial Day. Just for example, the blended model guidance for max temperatures on May 31st for Reno ranges from 84 to 94 degrees. -Edan && .AVIATION... * Plan on light winds and VFR conditions for all terminals today. A few cumulus buildups along the Eastern Sierra may produce SCT sky conditions near KMMH, but shower and thunderstorm probabilities are less than 5% this afternoon and evening. * WSW FL100 winds will increase around 9-12z Wednesday in advance of an upper level wave. FL100 winds will peak around 30kts between 18z WED and 3z THU with surface wind gusts around 25-30kts as well. Late Wednesday evening winds will gradually taper off and turn N-NW by Thursday morning. Keep an eye out for periods of light to moderate mountain wave turbulence Wednesday and possibly again on Saturday. * Additional upper level waves will swing through the Sierra and western through Memorial Day resulting in periodic enhanced breezes (particularly Saturday) and some afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm potential each afternoon starting on Friday (roughly 10-20% for the Sierra). -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

000 FXUS66 KSTO 212015 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 115 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather continues. Breezy north winds Thursday. Minor cooling this weekend before warming returns next week. && .DISCUSSION... Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery depicts abundant sunshine being observed across interior northern California on this Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are currently trending approximately 3 to 8 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, valid at 1 PM PDT. The north to east winds have decreased across the area for the most part (compared to yesterday) with gusts of around 15 to 25 mph now being observed this afternoon, and continued decrease is expected through the day. A system passes to the north late Wednesday into Thursday bringing some slightly cooler temperatures later in the week, as well as another round of locally breezy northerly winds behind it on Thursday. Strongest winds are expected in the Sacramento Valley where gusts of 20 to 35 mph are forecast. Any precipitation with this looks to be well to the north and east of our forecast area. By the end of the week and into the weekend, a trough with northwest flow will be bringing temperatures down slightly. Guidance is suggesting a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the Sierra Crest south of Highway 88 Friday afternoon, but otherwise dry conditions prevail. Mainly Minor Heat Risk continues in the Valley and into the lower foothills the rest of this week, with Little to No Risk in the upper foothills and mountains. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)... The aforementioned trough will bring temperatures down to near or slightly below the climatological normal for late May, with the coolest temperatures expected on Saturday where Heat Risk is at Little to None for most of interior northern California. High pressure then begins to build back in Sunday and into next week, bringing gradual day to day warming and Minor Heat Risk to the Valley and foothills. Overall quiet and warm weather is in store for Memorial Day Weekend with periods of locally breezy onshore flow. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with surface winds under 12 kts over the next 24 hours. Periods of north winds 10-15 kts across the Northern Sacramento Valley and western portions of the Valley after 18z Wed. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

000 FXUS65 KMSO 211836 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1236 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 .DISCUSSION...A broad trough across the western U.S. will support a couple of embedded cutoff low pressure systems over the next week. So overall, the weather will remain cooler than average with clouds and showers, but with a couple stronger systems embedded in the overall pattern. A change to warmer, drier weather is in the works for next week. The first cutoff low pressure system arrives tomorrow. During the day, this will just bring widespread rain across western Montana and central Idaho. But tomorrow night some cooler air from the north arrives and causes snow levels to drop. Currently, we have winter weather watches out for areas south of I-90 in western Montana for Wednesday night as a result. Forecasts have a wide range from the low end (10th percentile) to the high end (90th percentile). Lost Trail Pass ranges from around 3 inches to 1 foot, with Georgetown Lake and Phillipsburg ranging from 0.75 to 8 inches of snow by Thursday morning. In Lemhi County, Idaho Gilmore Summit ranges from about 0.2 to 9 inches. And some of the most extreme impacts will be in the back country of the Anaconda- Pintlar Mountains where forecasts range from 5 to 25 inches of new snow. There are two main reasons for the high ranges of snow amounts in the forecast. The first is that this is a very wet system, so IF it turns to snow at any point, it will produce a lot of snow. But the crux of the uncertainty lies in how low and when the snow levels will drop. The bottom line is that the risk is high enough for heavy snow that you need to be prepared for it in the back country and over the passes of southwestern Montana and Lemhi county Idaho. The second cutoff low looks to arrive just in time for Memorial Day weekend. It looks very similar to the system forecast for tomorrow, though the uncertainty remains higher due to the longer lead time. The bottom line there is if you are planning on heading to the outdoors for Memorial Day weekend, be prepared for cool, wet conditions and snow if you`re headed to higher elevations. Ensembles and long range models agree well on a change to warmer weather and above average temperatures around next Monday. So while Memorial Day weekend starts out cold and wet, it looks to end with some very pleasant weather. && .AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions through this evening with clouds increasing tonight. A cutoff low is moving into the region tonight and tomorrow morning. Showers will start in western Montana Wednesday morning with snow levels above 6,000 feet, so area terminals won`t be affected by the snow. Snow levels start to fall Wednesday night, so by Thursday morning snow will very likely be impacting terminal KBTM. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region. ID...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County. && $$

000 FXUS65 KBOI 212054 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 254 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A strong upper level system will move towards and then through the area tonight and Wednesday. This will bring plenty of precipitation along with a cold front. There is also a chance of thunderstorms behind the front beginning Wed morning and lasting through the afternoon. The front will enter our Oregon zones early Wed morning, move through the Boise area around noon, and make it through the western Magic Valley around 6 PM MDT. Showers will occur both ahead of and behind the front, from this evening through tomorrow. Precipitation totals are expected to range from 0.01 to 0.30 in lower elevations, up to 1 to 1.5 inches in higher elevations. Snow levels will start out around 7000 ft MSL, and fall to 4500-6000 by late Wed afternoon. With snow showers lingering in the mountains into Thu night, total snowfall above around 7000 ft MSL will range from 6-12 inches, with the highest totals above 8000 ft. Temperatures Wednesday will be 15-20 degrees below normal, and it will be breezy (gusts 30-40 mph), especially over southeast Oregon and in/near the Treasure and Magic Valleys. However, at this time, it does not appear as if a wind advisory is warranted. Thursday will be breezy in the western Magic Valley, with gusts to 25-35 mph, and temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal. We will dry out Thursday night as NW flow behind the departing system backs to zonal. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A weak short wave trough will move through Friday, spreading clouds across the area, but very little if any precipitation. A stronger system will move in Saturday. Details on the exact path of this system are not clear yet, but our best bet is the center will pass by to our north. This would give us a good cold front along with showers mainly in the higher elevations of the northern part of the CWA. Snow levels are forecast to range from 6-7000 ft MSL. Upper level ridging is expected to build into the area late Sunday night and Monday, bringing dry and warmer conditions. Tuesday, we may get a passing glance from another upper level trough, but uncertainty is high. After climbing a few degrees above normal Monday, temps might be 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...VFR through evening under increasing and lowering clouds. A cold front will bring numerous showers to SE Oregon after Wed/03Z in E Oregon, and after Wed/06Z in SW Idaho creating low-VFR and local MVFR in valleys. Areas of IFR/LIFR in mountains obscuring higher terrain. Snow levels 6500-7500 ft MSL through Wednesday morning, lowering to 4500-5000 after Thur/00Z. Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. Surface winds: SW to NW 5-15 kt local gusts to 25 kt east KMUO through Wed/00Z. Widespread gusty winds to 30 kt with cold frontal passage and continuing through Wednesday. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Rain beginning Wed/09-11Z with MVFR ceilings. Winds: NW shifting to SE around sunset. Frontal passage tonight will switch winds to NW with gusts up to 20 to 30 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....SP AVIATION.....DG

000 FXUS65 KLKN 212130 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 230 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Persistent high pressure over the Pacific Ocean keeps northwesterly flow over the intermountain west thru the weekend. Disturbances moving thru the flow provide unsettled weather conditions with low probabilities for showers and thunderstorms at times along with afternoon breezes. Pattern transitions early next week with an upper ridge and southwesterly flow over the region bringing fair weather and much warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night. Dry and fair weather continues this evening and tonight with increasing cloud cover from the northwest ahead of the next bout of active weather expected to arrive early Wednesday morning. Slightly warmer temperatures tonight compared to last night with lows in the low 30s to low 40s. Jet energy moves in from the northwest with a jet exit region situated over the forecast area by Wednesday morning. A deep closed upper low will concurrently reside over the PacNW. Pattern progresses with the the upper low and attendant cold front skirting northern Nevada during the day, with the low moving east into Wyoming by sunrise Thursday. This will bring light rain showers to northern Humboldt and northern Elko Counties beginning early Wednesday morning with a 10-15% probability of thunderstorms near the Idaho border during the afternoon. Rain accumulations will generally be around 0.10” or less. Gusty west/northwesterly winds will also be a concern Wednesday with the strongest winds situated over the northern half of the forecast area. Winds continue to look to fall just short of wind advisory criteria (sustained 30 mph, gust 45 mph) for the majority of northern Nevada, though higher winds are likely across the higher summits and mountains. Activity diminishes Wednesday evening and thru the first portion of the night. Daytime high temperatures reside in the low 60s to mid 70s with the cooler temperatures along the ID and OR borders. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s to low 40s with a similar distribution. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. A departing upper low pressure system will bring light, isolated showers to northeastern Elko county. Northwest winds will be breezy but afternoon gusts will be around 20-25 mph. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with the warmest conditions felt in central Nevada. Conditions will remain dry and quiet during the overnight period with lows in the 30s and 40s. A weak upper trough is forecast to form along the West Coast Friday. The westerly flow will help to moderate temperatures with readings near normal for this time of year, in the upper 60s and 70s. Winds will be rather light though some breezes to 20 mph can be expected. Isolated light showers or buildups are possible during the afternoon and early evening across central Nevada. These will dissipate for the night period with lows in the 40s. An upper trough will pass over northern and central Nevada for the upcoming weekend. Light, isolated to scattered showers are expected on Saturday but will become less widespread for Sunday. Winds will be out of the west and northwest on Saturday with gusts to 40 mph, but will be much lighter on Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s both days with lows in the 30s and 40s. All models are showing upper level ridging building in for the early portions of next week. This will lead to dry and warming conditions with readings reaching the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds will remain light. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions for Wednesday. Winds will be out of the SW-W in the early morning hours, but will increase during the late morning to early afternoon and switch to the W-NW15-25G35KT. && .HYDROLOGY...As high elevation spring snowmelt continues, many streams and creeks coming off snow covered terrain will experience elevated flows. This weeks cooler temperatures have slowed the rate of snowmelt, however elevated flows persist. Late this weekend and into next week as warmer temperatures return, expect flows on many creeks and rivers to rise again, possibly up into action stage. Wildhorse Reservoir is in action stage. Recent cooler temperatures are allowing the reservoir level to gradually lower, however the level is expected to remain in action stage all week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 92/86/86