000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090252
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THEN
STALLS NEAR THE GULF STREAM WALL WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ADJUSTED
A FEW MIN TEMPS FOR OVRNGT...BASED ON LATEST OBS AND LAMP GUIDANCE.
OTHRWISE...CLR AND COOL WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 40S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AS ITS ASSCD MID LVL TROF PUSHES INTO THE SRN
GRT LKS OH VLY RGN LATE MON. MEANWHILE...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
MOVES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO A SECOND HYBRID LOW
OVER THE WRN GULF COAST IS FCSTD TO EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH IDA AS
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE THE AL/FL PANHANDLE
COAST BY THEN. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS THAT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS TO
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA TUE-THU.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO WHAT THE REMNANTS
OF IDA WILL BRING TO OUR REGION...AND IT IS CURRENTLY THE OUTRIGHT
OUTLIER BOMBING THE SYSTEM OUT JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE GRT LKS RGN. SEEMS THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE...THUS WEAKER BROAD SYSTEM THAN ONE TO
BOMB OUT. THEREFORE SIDING CLOSER TO LATEST NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLN FOR
NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM HPC AND BULK OF TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR CHS OF RA/SHRA ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA (ESP SRN
THIRD) STARTING LATE TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. OVERALL THINKING
PRECIP MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NRN ZONES AND WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH PRES CAN START TO MOVE INTO THE RGN.
COULD ALSO START TO SEE STRONG ERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BY
THEN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MON (BUT A FEW
NOTCHES HIGHER) AND UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S MON/TUE NIGHT. WEDS TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEGINNING OF THIS PRD WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY
OF THE LOW PRS SYSTM ASSCTD WITH WHAT IS CRNTLY "IDA". RTHR LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME AS TO JUST HOW LONG
PCPN CONTS ACROSS FA GIVEN NMRS MODEL SOLNS. STARTED WITH HPC GRIDS
BUT HAD TO MAKE NMRS ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME
BASED ON TRYING TO MESH THE SHORT TERM FCST WITH THE XTNDD FCST.

FOR NOW...INCRSD CLOUD COVERAGE & TMP GRIDS AS WELL AS XTNDG CHC
POPS (RAIN) ACROSS FA WED NITE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ELECTED
TO KEEP THU DRY BUT WILL LWR TMPS GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO BEHIND POTENT LOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE STORM. PLAN ON TRENDING
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND STICKING WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE FCST FOR
FRI THRU NXT WKEND. HIGHS FRI 55-60 AND IN THE 60S NXT WKEND.
LOWS FRI MORN M30S-M40S AND 40-50 NXT WKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS EVNG AS HI PRES REMAINS JUST
OFF THE MID ATLC CST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST AS LGT AND VRBL
WNDS AND CLR SKIES WL CONTINE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS THE MAIN
THINKING POINT OF THIS FCST AS MDLS CONTINUE TO LWR VIS TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS MON. DECIDED TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PATCHY FOG IN DISCUSSION BUT NOT IN TAFS. THINKING IS THAT
WHILE SOME FOG MAY FORM (BEST CHC AT CSTL SITES)...CONDS ARE TOO DRY
FOR IT TO POSE A THREAT TO VIS AT THE MOMENT

VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO TUE...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS A LOW MVS
ACRS THE SE US. TO WHAT EXTENT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED AS MDLS
HAVE HAD DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW. MOST LIKELY EXPECT GUSTY NE/E WNDS WITH LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VIS DUE TO PCPN FOR WED/THU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST RESULTING IN WNDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS BTWN 2-3 FT THRU MON NITE. CNDTNS XPCTD TO REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS TUE...BUT NE WNDS BEGIN TO INCRS THE SEAS TO BTWN 3-4
FT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA`S XPCTD TO OVRSPRD MARINE AREA TUE NITE AS LOW PRS APPRCHS
APPRCHS FROM THE S. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND HERE AS THE FCST WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE LOW. PER COORD CALL WITH
OPC/MHX/LWX...WILL CONT TO INCRS WNDS WED WITH GUSTS TO LOW END GALE
XPCTD TO OVRSPRD CSTL WTRS S-N BEGINNING WED AFTRN ACROSS SRN CSTL
WTRS THEN WED NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL WTRS. WILL KEEP GUSTS CAPPED AT
30 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND ATTM. CUD SEE GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
THIS FAR OUT. WILL CAP SEA HEIGHT THIS FAR OUT BTWN 8-10 FT. CSTL
FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MID WEEK AS WELL.

WILL UPDATE THE MARINE SECTION OF THE HWO FOR THE MID WEEK PRD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR/AM

000
FXUS61 KLWX 090211
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEAST...PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT...PUTTING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN SLY
RETURN FLOW. DESPITE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TNGT...MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH LLVL THERMAL INVERSION...LOW TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE HIGHER OVR THE RIDGE TOPS THAN IN LOCATIONS IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GREATER SLY FLOW WITH HIGH
POSITION TO ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN
SUNDAY`S HIGH DUE TO CI DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE MIDWEST/MS VLY. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE HIGH
CLOUDS NOT HAVE THAT GREAT OF AN EFFECT...HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN
YESTERDAY COULD OCCUR...15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...APPROACHING RECORDS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS TRENDS ALSO BRING THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
CWFA FOR THE MID WEEK.

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED THE POPS UPWARDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO
ALMOST 50 PERCENT IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW
CENTER TRACK...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE OPTED ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST AND IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR
THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS THRU MON AS HIPRES REMAINS OVER THE
TERMINALS.

SUB VFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LGT THRU TNGT WITH HIPRS OVRHD. FLOW WILL BECOME SLY
MON 5-10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN MD
CHSPK BAY IN THE LATE AFTN.

SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE SE US AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE REMNANT LOW IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.

POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE LOW CENTER AFFECTS THE EAST COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TOMORROW. IN FACT...THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 9 SINCE 1994 /WHEN LOCAL RECORDS
WERE SET/ IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
BUT NOT BREAK THOSE RECORDS. BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AT SELECTED AREA CLIMATE SITES...

SITE    09/11    YEAR
BWI......78......1994
DCA......79......1994
IAD......78......1994


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...BAJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NWL/JRK

000
FXUS61 KPHI 090052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
JUST PASSING EAST AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A DECENT
RADIATING NIGHT AS WE EXPECT TO DECOUPLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT FLOW OFF THE SURFACE. DEW POINTS AT MOST LOCATIONS START
FROM A RELATIVELY HIGH PLACE /NOT SO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/, BUT
THE NIGHTS ARE PRETTY LONG NOW AND THEY SHOULD START TO DROP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE REGARDING MINS. FOR THE SHORT TERM UPDATES, WE HAVE BEEN
EDGING MIN TEMPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH EACH ISSUANCE.

AS FOR IDA AND MODEL VERIFICATION, USING THE VORT MAX FIELDS, A
CONSENSUS ECMWF/WRF-NMM/GFS SOLUTION WOULD WORK BETTER VS ANY
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ON THEIR RESPECTIVE 6 OR 12 HOUR FORECAST. THE
WRF APPEARS TOO FAR SW, GFS TOO FAR SE AND ECMWF TOO FAR W.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING FRONT, TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ANOTHER DAY
OF SUNSHINE /PERHAPS THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS/ WITH TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY. THESE ARE NOT RECORD
MAXES, BUT THEY ARE WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF RECORDS. WE
EXPECT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST BETWEEN INLAND MAXES AND
COASTAL ONES AS ANOTHER SEA BREEZE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CLOUDINESS OR WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT IT`S DIFFICULT TO FORECAST COMPLETE RADIATING AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING FRONT AND SO WE`VE JUST LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE
COOLER GUIDANCE.

FOR TUESDAY, GUIDANCE STILL IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE DESPITE FAIR DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENESIS, AND SO WE
HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ON POPS. WE`VE ACCEPTED
THE MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHWEST AND RAISED IT A BIT
IN THE SOUTHEAST PER THE 12Z ECMWF H925 TEMPERATURE PROG.

WHATEVER MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT /MAINLY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT/ PER THE
00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION IN THAT IT IS BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL MANIFESTATION OF
IDA CLOSE ENOUGH TO US TO BRING SOME DYNAMICS AND SOME I300
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH SOME PRETTY ROBUST MOISTURE INTO AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS
SOLUTION FOR NOW, AND WE ARE JUST CARRYING CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THAT PUTS US CLOSER TO THE MET POPS. WE ALSO HAVE
ACCEPTED MET GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAV VALUES BECAUSE OF
OUR DECISION ON THE MODELS OF CHOICE.

WE CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY JUST IN CASE THE CORRECT
SOLUTION TO THE TRACK OF IDA EVEN REMOTELY RESEMBLES THE 12Z GFS,
BUT BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE AREA AND SHUNTING IDA TO THE SOUTH AND SO THOSE CHANCE
POPS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC /THE MEAN TRACK OF THE TROPICAL MODELS
SEEMS TO TAKE IDA OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AN EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY/. THE ONLY THE NAM AND THE ECMWF DO SHOW IS A FAIR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. WE FAVOR HPC GUIDANCE
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLDER MEX VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP, AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
PESSIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA IN BRINGING THE TROPICAL LOW FURTHER NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH THE SOLUTION, BOTH FOR THE SURFACE AND AT UPPER
LEVELS. HPC SEEMS TO SIDE MORE WITH THE GFS. AT THIS TIME,
CONTINUITY FROM THE SHORT TERM WAS FOLLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOUTH AND CENTRAL, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURROUNDING OFFICES LIKED THE IDEA OF NO WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DRAG THE SYSTEM AWAY, AND THIS THEME WAS ADOPTED FOR THURSDAY
FOR NOW. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE BUILT BY THE MODELS AND
HPC FOR SUCCEEDING TIME PERIODS, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEIGHBORS BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE OHIO
VALLEY WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WE JUST BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HPC TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO WORK WELL WITH THE FORECAST AIRMASS
TYPES, MORE HUMID TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THEN DRYING OUT WITH
TIME UNTIL A SOUTHERLY FLOW REASSERTS ITSELF FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH BENIGN RESULTS FOR THE TAF SITES. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
MARGINAL VFR FOG COULD OCCUR AT THE MORE RURAL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT; THE GFS MOS WAS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THIS THAN
THE NAM MOS.

AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A CALM TO LIGHT WIND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES A BIT FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLOUD POTENTIAL, THEREFORE JUST SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE TIME FRAME FROM
ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS MOISTURE COULD CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LEFTOVERS
OF NOW HURRICANE IDA, SO STAY TUNED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY WIND. FOR NOW, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
HOWEVER AS IT MOVES THROUGH DURING TUESDAY A WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FROM
ABOUT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT REGARDING ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN
TIMING AND OVERALL SOLUTIONS AS TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH ENERGY FROM
CURRENT-HURRICANE IDA, THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST AND STRONG,
AND TOO FAR NORTH. SO, THE OVERDONE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
DOWNWARD WITH CONTINUITY TO EDGE THE SEAS UP BY ABOUT 3 OR 4 FEET.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
PROBABLY PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT,
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EITHER LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT OR DURING WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE PRESSURE
PATTERN, EVEN THE WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED NAM/WRF INDICATES
LOW-END GALES FOR A TIME. AS A RESULT, WINDS WERE CAPPED AT 35 KNOTS
FOR NOW, TO AT LEAST INDICATE THE GALE POTENTIAL. THEN, HPC WAS
CLOSELY FOLLOWED, WHICH BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR AREA DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

AS A SIDE NOTE, THE FORECAST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME TIDAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM.../
AVIATION...GORSE/
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 082356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN MOVES EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOOK
FOR CLEAR SKIES TNT AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR
MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AS ITS ASSCD MID LVL TROF PUSHES INTO THE SRN
GRT LKS OH VLY RGN LATE MON. MEANWHILE...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
MOVES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO A SECOND HYBRID LOW
OVER THE WRN GULF COAST IS FCSTD TO EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH IDA AS
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE THE AL/FL PANHANDLE
COAST BY THEN. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS THAT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS TO
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA TUE-THU.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO WHAT THE REMNANTS
OF IDA WILL BRING TO OUR REGION...AND IT IS CURRENTLY THE OUTRIGHT
OUTLIER BOMBING THE SYSTEM OUT JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE GRT LKS RGN. SEEMS THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE...THUS WEAKER BROAD SYSTEM THAN ONE TO
BOMB OUT. THEREFORE SIDING CLOSER TO LATEST NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLN FOR
NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM HPC AND BULK OF TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR CHS OF RA/SHRA ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA (ESP SRN
THIRD) STARTING LATE TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. OVERALL THINKING
PRECIP MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NRN ZONES AND WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH PRES CAN START TO MOVE INTO THE RGN.
COULD ALSO START TO SEE STRONG ERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BY
THEN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MON (BUT A FEW
NOTCHES HIGHER) AND UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S MON/TUE NIGHT. WEDS TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEGINNING OF THIS PRD WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY
OF THE LOW PRS SYSTM ASSCTD WITH WHAT IS CRNTLY "IDA". RTHR LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME AS TO JUST HOW LONG
PCPN CONTS ACROSS FA GIVEN NMRS MODEL SOLNS. STARTED WITH HPC GRIDS
BUT HAD TO MAKE NMRS ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME
BASED ON TRYING TO MESH THE SHORT TERM FCST WITH THE XTNDD FCST.

FOR NOW...INCRSD CLOUD COVERAGE & TMP GRIDS AS WELL AS XTNDG CHC
POPS (RAIN) ACROSS FA WED NITE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ELECTED
TO KEEP THU DRY BUT WILL LWR TMPS GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO BEHIND POTENT LOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE STORM. PLAN ON TRENDING
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND STICKING WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE FCST FOR
FRI THRU NXT WKEND. HIGHS FRI 55-60 AND IN THE 60S NXT WKEND.
LOWS FRI MORN M30S-M40S AND 40-50 NXT WKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS EVNG AS HI PRES REMAINS JUST
OFF THE MID ATLC CST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST AS LGT AND VRBL
WNDS AND CLR SKIES WL CONTINE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS THE MAIN
THINKING POINT OF THIS FCST AS MDLS CONTINUE TO LWR VIS TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS MON. DECIDED TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PATCHY FOG IN DISCUSSION BUT NOT IN TAFS. THINKING IS THAT
WHILE SOME FOG MAY FORM (BEST CHC AT CSTL SITES)...CONDS ARE TOO DRY
FOR IT TO POSE A THREAT TO VIS AT THE MOMENT

VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO TUE...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS A LOW MVS
ACRS THE SE US. TO WHAT EXTENT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED AS MDLS
HAVE HAD DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW. MOST LIKELY EXPECT GUSTY NE/E WNDS WITH LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VIS DUE TO PCPN FOR WED/THU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST RESULTING IN WNDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS BTWN 2-3 FT THRU MON NITE. CNDTNS XPCTD TO REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS TUE...BUT NE WNDS BEGIN TO INCRS THE SEAS TO BTWN 3-4
FT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA`S XPCTD TO OVRSPRD MARINE AREA TUE NITE AS LOW PRS APPRCHS
APPRCHS FROM THE S. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND HERE AS THE FCST WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE LOW. PER COORD CALL WITH
OPC/MHX/LWX...WILL CONT TO INCRS WNDS WED WITH GUSTS TO LOW END GALE
XPCTD TO OVRSPRD CSTL WTRS S-N BEGINNING WED AFTRN ACROSS SRN CSTL
WTRS THEN WED NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL WTRS. WILL KEEP GUSTS CAPPED AT
30 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND ATTM. CUD SEE GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
THIS FAR OUT. WILL CAP SEA HEIGHT THIS FAR OUT BTWN 8-10 FT. CSTL
FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MID WEEK AS WELL.

WILL UPDATE THE MARINE SECTION OF THE HWO FOR THE MID WEEK PRD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KPHI 082049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
JUST PASSING EAST AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A DECENT
RADIATING NIGHT AS WE EXPECT TO DECOUPLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT FLOW OFF THE SURFACE. DEW POINTS AT MOST LOCATIONS START
FROM A RELATIVELY HIGH PLACE /NOT SO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/, BUT
THE NIGHTS ARE PRETTY LONG NOW AND THEY SHOULD START TO DROP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE REGARDING MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING FRONT, TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ANOTHER DAY
OF SUNSHINE /PERHAPS THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS/ WITH TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY. THESE ARE NOT RECORD
MAXES, BUT THEY ARE WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF RECORDS. WE
EXPECT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST BETWEEN INLAND MAXES AND
COASTAL ONES AS ANOTHER SEA BREEZE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CLOUDINESS OR WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT IT`S DIFFICULT TO FORECAST COMPLETE RADIATING AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING FRONT AND SO WE`VE JUST LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE
COOLER GUIDANCE.

FOR TUESDAY, GUIDANCE STILL IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE DESPITE FAIR DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENESIS, AND SO WE
HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ON POPS. WE`VE ACCEPTED
THE MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHWEST AND RAISED IT A BIT
IN THE SOUTHEAST PER THE 12Z ECMWF H925 TEMPERATURE PROG.

WHATEVER MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT /MAINLY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT/ PER THE
00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION IN THAT IT IS BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL MANIFESTATION OF
IDA CLOSE ENOUGH TO US TO BRING SOME DYNAMICS AND SOME I300
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH SOME PRETTY ROBUST MOISTURE INTO AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS
SOLUTION FOR NOW, AND WE ARE JUST CARRYING CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THAT PUTS US CLOSER TO THE MET POPS. WE ALSO HAVE
ACCEPTED MET GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAV VALUES BECAUSE OF
OUR DECISION ON THE MODELS OF CHOICE.

WE CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY JUST IN CASE THE CORRECT
SOLUTION TO THE TRACK OF IDA EVEN REMOTELY RESEMBLES THE 12Z GFS,
BUT BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE AREA AND SHUNTING IDA TO THE SOUTH AND SO THOSE CHANCE
POPS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC /THE MEAN TRACK OF THE TROPICAL MODELS
SEEMS TO TAKE IDA OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AN EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY/. THE ONLY THE NAM AND THE ECMWF DO SHOW IS A FAIR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. WE FAVOR HPC GUIDANCE
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLDER MEX VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP, AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
PESSIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA IN BRINGING THE TROPICAL LOW FURTHER NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH THE SOLUTION, BOTH FOR THE SURFACE AND AT UPPER
LEVELS. HPC SEEMS TO SIDE MORE WITH THE GFS. AT THIS TIME,
CONTINUITY FROM THE SHORT TERM WAS FOLLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOUTH AND CENTRAL, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURROUNDING OFFICES LIKED THE IDEA OF NO WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DRAG THE SYSTEM AWAY, AND THIS THEME WAS ADOPTED FOR THURSDAY
FOR NOW. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE BUILT BY THE MODELS AND
HPC FOR SUCCEEDING TIME PERIODS, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEIGHBORS BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE OHIO
VALLEY WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WE JUST BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HPC TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO WORK WELL WITH THE FORECAST AIRMASS
TYPES, MORE HUMID TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THEN DRYING OUT WITH
TIME UNTIL A SOUTHERLY FLOW REASSERTS ITSELF FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE KPHL TERMINAL RADAR DATA INDICATED THAT THE
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SINCE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALLOWED THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND EVEN BE
MORE VARIABLE AT TIMES. OVERALL, A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL GO
EITHER VARIABLE OR CALM BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, A LIGHT SEA/BAY BREEZE MAY AFFECT KACY AND KILG THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE, JUST A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY AT TIMES. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS UP THOUGH TONIGHT, COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS, SOME FOG LOOKS TO FORM LATE. SOME WAS
AROUND EARLIER THIS MORNING, THEREFORE WILL EXPAND THE FOG MENTION
/3-5SM AT THIS TIME/ TO ALL OUR TERMINALS EXCEPT KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN. WE PLACED THIS MENTION IN TOWARD MORNING FOR NOW.

AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A CALM TO LIGHT WIND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLOUD POTENTIAL, THEREFORE WILL JUST INCLUDE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED. THE TIME FRAME FROM
ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS MOISTURE COULD CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LEFTOVERS
OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. STAY TUNED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY WIND. AS OF NOW, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NEARBY THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT REALLY IMPACT THE WINDS MUCH INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERALL, A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEARSHORE, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
HOWEVER AS IT MOVES THROUGH DURING TUESDAY A WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BE SLIDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT REGARDING
ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. WHILE THE COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES IN TIMING AND OVERALL SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
ENERGY FROM CURRENTLY HURRICANE IDA, THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TO
FAST AND WAY TO STRONG. THIS INFLUENCES THE WAVEWATCH DATA SINCE IT
IS DERIVED FROM THE GFS. AS A RESULT, WE DID NOT GO 100 PERCENT WITH
THE 12Z WAVEWATCH DATA, BUT ONLY BLENDED IN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF IT
TO CONTINUITY TO EDGE THE SEAS UP ABOUT 3 TO 4 FEET. THIS IS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A POTENTIALLY PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT, ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EITHER LATER TUESDAY NIGHT OR DURING
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE PRESSURE PATTERN, EVEN THE WEAKER
AND MORE SUPPRESSED NAM/WRF INDICATES LOW-END GALES FOR A TIME. AS A
RESULT, WE CAPPED WINDS AT 35 KNOTS FOR NOW TO AT LEAST INDICATE THE
GALE POTENTIAL. WE THEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO HPC, WHICH BRINGS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

AS A SIDE NOTE, THE FORECAST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME TIDAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KLWX 082000
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD
TNGT...PUTTING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN SLY RETURN FLOW. DESPITE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNGT...MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD. WITH LLVL THERMAL
INVERSION...LOW TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGHER OVR THE RIDGE TOPS
THAN IN LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY WX. SFC
HIPRES/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONT TO PROGRESS EWD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WX PATTERN.
SOME CI BLOWOFF MAY MOVE IN FROM THE W AS AN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE MIDWEST/MS VLY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WILL
CONT MON WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
URFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS TRENDS ALSO BRING THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
CWFA FOR THE MID WEEK.

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED THE POPS UPWARDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO
ALMOST 50 PERCENT IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW
CENTER TRACK...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE OPTED ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST AND IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR
THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDTIONS AND LGT WINDS THRU MON AS HIPRES REMAINS OVER THE
TERMINALS.

SUB VFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LGT THRU TNGT WITH HIPRS OVRHD. FLOW WILL BECOME SLY
MON 5-10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN MD
CHSPK BAY IN THE LATE AFTN.

SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE SE US AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE REMNANT LOW IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.

POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE LOW CENTER AFFECTS THE EAST COAST.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
KLEIN/LISTEMAA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081951 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RATHER DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
THROUGH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS TRIES TO BRING
IDA REMNANTS NORTH AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF TO CREATE A
CLOSED LOW WELL INLAND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NAM KEEPS IDA
REMAINS SUPPRESSED FAR SOUTH, WITH OTHER MODELS HAVING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS BUT NONE AS EXTREME AS THE GFS. WHILE DEALING WITH
TROPICAL REMAINS IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WILL NOT FOLLOW GFS AND
WILL KEEP WITH A SOLUTION NEARER THE NAM, AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HPC THINKING AS WELL. AS SUCH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY.
BEGINNING OF FCST IS CLOSEST TO A NAM/EMCWF BLEND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FASTER IN BUILDING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THE LATE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.

LATE ON SATURDAY...A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO THE THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CHC OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING WILL RETURN AS
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY LATE ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE A FRONT BOUNDARY PASSING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS SATURDAY AND CHC POPS INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...KEEPING
THE TERMINALS IN A WEAK SRLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. REDUCED CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCD PRECIP
WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081949
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
249 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN MOVES EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOOK
FOR CLEAR SKIES TNT AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR
MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AS ITS ASSCD MID LVL TROF PUSHES INTO THE SRN
GRT LKS OH VLY RGN LATE MON. MEANWHILE...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
MOVES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO A SECOND HYBRID LOW
OVER THE WRN GULF COAST IS FCSTD TO EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH IDA AS
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE THE AL/FL PANHANDLE
COAST BY THEN. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS THAT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS TO
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA TUE-THU.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO WHAT THE REMNANTS
OF IDA WILL BRING TO OUR REGION...AND IT IS CURRENTLY THE OUTRIGHT
OUTLIER BOMBING THE SYSTEM OUT JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE GRT LKS RGN. SEEMS THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE...THUS WEAKER BROAD SYSTEM THAN ONE TO
BOMB OUT. THEREFORE SIDING CLOSER TO LATEST NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLN FOR
NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM HPC AND BULK OF TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR CHS OF RA/SHRA ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA (ESP SRN
THIRD) STARTING LATE TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. OVERALL THINKING
PRECIP MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NRN ZONES AND WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH PRES CAN START TO MOVE INTO THE RGN.
COULD ALSO START TO SEE STRONG ERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BY
THEN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MON (BUT A FEW
NOTCHES HIGHER) AND UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S MON/TUE NIGHT. WEDS TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING OF THIS PRD WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY
OF THE LOW PRS SYSTM ASSCTD WITH WHAT IS CRNTLY "IDA". RTHR LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME AS TO JUST HOW LONG
PCPN CONTS ACROSS FA GIVEN NMRS MODEL SOLNS. STARTED WITH HPC GRIDS
BUT HAD TO MAKE NMRS ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME
BASED ON TRYING TO MESH THE SHORT TERM FCST WITH THE XTNDD FCST.

FOR NOW...INCRSD CLOUD COVERAGE & TMP GRIDS AS WELL AS XTNDG CHC
POPS (RAIN) ACROSS FA WED NITE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ELECTED
TO KEEP THU DRY BUT WILL LWR TMPS GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO BEHIND POTENT LOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE STORM. PLAN ON TRENDING
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND STICKING WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE FCST FOR
FRI THRU NXT WKEND. HIGHS FRI 55-60 AND IN THE 60S NXT WKEND.
LOWS FRI MORN M30S-M40S AND 40-50 NXT WKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA IS RESULTING IN
LGT AND VRBL WINDS. SKIES REMAIN CLR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH THE NAM
INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE DURG THE DAY MON.

THE EARLIER TAF FOR SBY HAD 2 MILES BR AFT 06Z. THE MAV HAS IFR FOG
BUT MODEL DATA IS LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS LOCATION OF
THE SENSOR. BOTH MOS FCSTS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 30S...
ABOUT 5 DEGREES LWR THAN OUR OFFICIAL FCST. WILL KEEP THEM 7+ MILES
FOR NOW.

VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE BUT THINGS GO DOWNHILL FROM THERE.
VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK
OFF EITHER THE CAROLINA OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND AREAS OF IFR BY WED AND POSSIBLY THU. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST RESULTING IN WNDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS BTWN 2-3 FT THRU MON NITE. CNDTNS XPCTD TO REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS TUE...BUT NE WNDS BEGIN TO INCRS THE SEAS TO BTWN 3-4
FT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA`S XPCTD TO OVRSPRD MARINE AREA TUE NITE AS LOW PRS APPRCHS
APPRCHS FROM THE S. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND HERE AS THE FCST WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE LOW. PER COORD CALL WITH
OPC/MHX/LWX...WILL CONT TO INCRS WNDS WED WITH GUSTS TO LOW END GALE
XPCTD TO OVRSPRD CSTL WTRS S-N BEGINNING WED AFTRN ACROSS SRN CSTL
WTRS THEN WED NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL WTRS. WILL KEEP GUSTS CAPPED AT
30 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND ATTM. CUD SEE GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
THIS FAR OUT. WILL CAP SEA HEIGHT THIS FAR OUT BTWN 8-10 FT. CSTL
FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MID WEEK AS WELL.

WILL UPDATE THE MARINE SECTION OF THE HWO FOR THE MID WEEK PRD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081946
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RATHER DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
THROUGH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS TRIES TO BRING
IDA REMNANTS NORTH AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF TO CREATE A
CLOSED LOW WELL INLAND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NAM KEEPS IDA
REMAINS SUPPRESSED FAR SOUTH, WITH OTHER MODELS HAVING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS BUT NONE AS EXTREME AS THE GFS. WHILE DEALING WITH
TROPICAL REMAINS IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WILL NOT FOLLOW GFS AND
WILL KEEP WITH A SOLUTION NEARER THE NAM, AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HPC THINKING AS WELL. AS SUCH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY.
BEGINNING OF FCST IS CLOSEST TO A NAM/EMCWF BLEND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FASTER IN BUILDING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THE LATE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.

LATE ON SATURDAY...A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO THE THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CHC OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING WILL RETURN AS
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY LATE ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE A FRONT BOUNDARY PASSING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS SATURDAY AND CHC POPS INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1258 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER SUNDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH AFTN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.

GENERALLY A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY COOL
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WXWISE...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF COAST STREAMS TOWARDS THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN
PORTEND TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS L/M70S
INLAND...U60S/L70S COASTAL AREAS.

TUESDAY...
MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING INTERACTION BETWEEN
(EXTRATROPICAL) SFC TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF COAST...HURRICANE IDA
AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM (GREAT LAKES) TROUGH/APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WNW.

GFS/NAM CAN AGREE IN DEPICTING INCREASING CLOUDS AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE INCREMENTALLY RISES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/ERY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H5-85
LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
OCCURS...SO HV LEFT FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE
WITH MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING LOCATION (AND COVERAGE)
OF BEST POPS. GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL DEPICT A GENERALLY WET
AFTERNOON/EVENING TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM/SREF SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND QPF. FOR NOW...UNTIL BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...HV DECIDED TO TAKE A HYBRID OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS. WL PLAY ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF OF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION FOR TOTAL QPF...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
GEM/NAM TIMING WITH THE IDEA THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HELD ON TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. 1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST
PRD. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CNDTNS XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
WED IN THE 50S...NR 60 THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA IS RESULTING IN
LGT AND VRBL WINDS. SKIES REMAIN CLR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH THE NAM
INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE DURG THE DAY MON.

THE EARLIER TAF FOR SBY HAD 2 MILES BR AFT 06Z. THE MAV HAS IFR FOG
BUT MODEL DATA IS LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS LOCATION OF
THE SENSOR. BOTH MOS FCSTS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 30S...
ABOUT 5 DEGREES LWR THAN OUR OFFICIAL FCST. WILL KEEP THEM 7+ MILES
FOR NOW.

VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE BUT THINGS GO DOWNHILL FROM THERE.
VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK
OFF EITHER THE CAROLINA OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND AREAS OF IFR BY WED AND POSSIBLY THU. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW WNDS CONTG TO GRDLY DCRS...SEAS SUBSIDE...(ERY) THIS MRNG.
OTRW...HI PRES INVOF RGN TDA/TNGT...B4 SLIDING OFFSHR FOR MON/MON
NGT. WNDS GRDLY BCMG ONSHR...THOUGH RMNG AOB 10 KT ERY IN THE WK.
MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR TUE/WED PD AS PSBL LO PRES PASS NR OR RMNS S OF
WTRS. WL BLEND LATEST SHORT TERM GUID/FCST W/ CURRENT MIDWEEK FCST
FOR NOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/SMF

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1252 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY, AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS
AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70, EVEN POSSIBLY SOME MID 70S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

GIVEN THOSE HIGHS TODAY AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES THAT GENERALLY
ARE IN THE 50S, WE THOUGHT THAT A SEA/BAY BREEZE MIGHT KICK IN.
THAT WOULD MAKE TEMPS NEAR THE COAST A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT`S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT MIGHT
WELL TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE
GET INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
I`M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE KPHL TERMINAL RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND EVEN BE MORE VARIABLE AT TIMES. OVERALL, A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
WILL GO EITHER VARIABLE OR CALM BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, A SEA/BAY BREEZE MAY AFFECT KACY AND KILG THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE, JUST A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY AT TIMES. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS UP THOUGH TONIGHT, COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS, SOME FOG LOOKS TO FORM LATE. SOME WAS
AROUND EARLIER THIS MORNING, THEREFORE WILL EXPAND THE FOG MENTION
/3-5SM AT THIS TIME/ TO ALL OUR TERMINALS EXCEPT KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN. WE PLACED THIS MENTION IN TOWARD MORNING FOR NOW.

AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A CALM TO LIGHT WIND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLOUD POTENTIAL, THEREFORE WILL JUST INCLUDE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED. THE TIME FRAME FROM
ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS MOISTURE COULD CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LEFTOVERS
OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. STAY TUNED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY WIND. AS OF NOW, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM
HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, MAY OR MAY
NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD GET STUCK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY,
I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...DELISI/EBERWINE/GIGI
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...RPW

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY, AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS
AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY IN THE 60S, WITH LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE
40S.

GIVEN THOSE HIGHS TODAY AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES THAT GENERALLY
ARE IN THE 50S, WE THOUGHT THAT A SEA/BAY BREEZE MIGHT KICK IN.
THAT WOULD MAKE TEMPS NEAR THE COAST A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT`S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT MIGHT
WELL TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE
GET INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
I`M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE KPHL TERMINAL RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND EVEN BE MORE VARIABLE AT TIMES. OVERALL, A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
WILL GO EITHER VARIABLE OR CALM BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, A SEA/BAY BREEZE MAY AFFECT KACY AND KILG THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE, JUST A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY AT TIMES. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS UP THOUGH TONIGHT, COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS, SOME FOG LOOKS TO FORM LATE. SOME WAS
AROUND EARLIER THIS MORNING, THEREFORE WILL EXPAND THE FOG MENTION
/3-5SM AT THIS TIME/ TO ALL OUR TERMINALS EXCEPT KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN. WE PLACED THIS MENTION IN TOWARD MORNING FOR NOW.

AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A CALM TO LIGHT WIND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLOUD POTENTIAL, THEREFORE WILL JUST INCLUDE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED. THE TIME FRAME FROM
ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS MOISTURE COULD CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LEFTOVERS
OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. STAY TUNED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY WIND. AS OF NOW, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM
HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, MAY OR MAY
NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD GET STUCK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY,
I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...DELISI/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...RPW

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081624
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1124 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL CLOUDS FROM GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD. EXPECT MILD
MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KLWX 081549
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1049 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MUCH TO SAY HERE. JUST WENT OUTSIDE AND COULDN`T FIND A
CLOUD IN THE SKY...WHICH WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE WHOLE CWFA.
12Z IAD RAOB SHOWED STRONG THERMAL INVERSION IN THE NEAREST 1 KFT
AGL. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUITE FAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 70F WITH A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE C FOOTHILLS/NRN PIEDMONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS RISING
INTO THE MID 70S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. ANY PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE RIDGES/HIGHLANDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...PAVING THE WAY FOR A SUNNY DAY AS RIDGE ENHANCED
DRY/SUBSIDING AIR DOMINATES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 FOR MOST
PLACES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS PERHAPS MOVING IN LATE ON THE
BACK OF THE RIDGE. SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BUT MINS WILL
STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PERHAPS HIGHEST OVER THE
RIDGES DUE TO THE INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLY FLOW PRVLS MON...CONTG ABOVE NRML TEMPS. FOR TUE INTO WED...FCST
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IDA AND SRN STREAM STORM
SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS SE US. FOR NOW WILL PLAN ON THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING S OF THE CWA...WITH MID-ATLC SANDWICHED BTWN THE SRN STORM
AND STRONG UPR SHRTWV DIGGING OUT OF GREAT LAKES INTO NE CONUS. WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...LOW POPS TUE/TUE NGT WITH
FROPA...BCMG BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WED/THU. HIPRES BUILDS IN BEHIND
FRONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIPRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT
WINDS TO THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TDA AND TNGT.

HIPRES DOMINATES INTO ERY NEXT WK...WITH VFR CONDS THRU MON NGT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY. CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY CONDS FOR
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CONCERNS ON THE WATERS TDA AND TNGT AS HIPRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LGT TDA.

NO MARINE ISSUES XCPD UNTIL LATE TUE NGT AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATER. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CREATE WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...GALE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PSBL. BY FRIDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...KLEIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..PELOQUIN/SBK

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081525
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1025 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER SUNDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH AFTN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.

GENERALLY A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY COOL
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WXWISE...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF COAST STREAMS TOWARDS THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN
PORTEND TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS L/M70S
INLAND...U60S/L70S COASTAL AREAS.

TUESDAY...
MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING INTERACTION BETWEEN
(EXTRATROPICAL) SFC TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF COAST...HURRICANE IDA
AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM (GREAT LAKES) TROUGH/APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WNW.

GFS/NAM CAN AGREE IN DEPICTING INCREASING CLOUDS AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE INCREMENTALLY RISES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/ERY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H5-85
LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
OCCURS...SO HV LEFT FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE
WITH MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING LOCATION (AND COVERAGE)
OF BEST POPS. GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL DEPICT A GENERALLY WET
AFTERNOON/EVENING TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM/SREF SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND QPF. FOR NOW...UNTIL BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...HV DECIDED TO TAKE A HYBRID OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS. WL PLAY ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF OF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION FOR TOTAL QPF...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
GEM/NAM TIMING WITH THE IDEA THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HELD ON TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. 1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST
PRD. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CNDTNS XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
WED IN THE 50S...NR 60 THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MON NGT...PTNTL FOR MVFR CIGS TUE INTO WED. LLVL FLO FM
THE SSW (AOB 10 KT) FOR A WHL TDA...B4 BCMG LGT/VRBL FM THIS AFTN
THROUGH TNGT. GENLY SLY WNDS XPCTD MON INTO MON NGT W/ SPDS RMNG AOB
10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW WNDS CONTG TO GRDLY DCRS...SEAS SUBSIDE...(ERY) THIS MRNG.
OTRW...HI PRES INVOF RGN TDA/TNGT...B4 SLIDING OFFSHR FOR MON/MON
NGT. WNDS GRDLY BCMG ONSHR...THOUGH RMNG AOB 10 KT ERY IN THE WK.
MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR TUE/WED PD AS PSBL LO PRES PASS NR OR RMNS S OF
WTRS. WL BLEND LATEST SHORT TERM GUID/FCST W/ CURRENT MIDWEEK FCST
FOR NOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR/SMF

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
817 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY, AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS
AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY IN THE 60S, WITH LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE
40S.

GIVEN THOSE HIGHS TODAY AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES THAT GENERALLY
ARE IN THE 50S, WE THOUGHT THAT A SEA/BAY BREEZE MIGHT KICK IN.
THAT WOULD MAKE TEMPS NEAR THE COAST A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT`S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT MIGHT
WELL TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE
GET INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
I`M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE CAN LOOK FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. THE FEW SC TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PREDAWN FOG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS, MAINLY NW OR THE PHILLY METRO AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT AT 44009 EARLY THIS MORNING
AND NEVER REACHED 5 FT AT 44065. THEREFORE, WILL DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL
BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY
FROM HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN,
MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD
GET STUCK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE/DELISI
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081258
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIDGES...AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THERE SEEMS TO BE
SOME LIMITED BUILDING OF THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
SOME CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS GREENE/MARION COUNTIES DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
INVERSION DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT MILD MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080913
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. ALOFT...MID LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED
ALONG THE GULF COAST. TO THE SOUTH...HURRICANE IDA WAS ANALYZED
JUST SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. SEE THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM
THE NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IDA.

VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED IN GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MID/UPR RIDGE WILL DEEPEN AND BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN MID-ATL...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A STELLAR FALL DAY ACROSS
THE AREA W/NEARLY MAXIMUM INSOLATION AND MODERATING TEMPS ACROSS
THE CWA. H92 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +13 TO +15 C SHOULD EASILY
YIELD HIGHS ABOUT 1 STANDARD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...
GENERALLY A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY COOL
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WXWISE...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF COAST STREAMS TOWARDS THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN
PORTEND TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS L/M70S
INLAND...U60S/L70S COASTAL AREAS.

TUESDAY...
MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING INTERACTION BETWEEN
(EXTRATROPICAL) SFC TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF COAST...HURRICANE IDA
AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM (GREAT LAKES) TROUGH/APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WNW.

GFS/NAM CAN AGREE IN DEPICTING INCREASING CLOUDS AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE INCREMENTALLY RISES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/ERY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H5-85
LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
OCCURS...SO HV LEFT FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE
WITH MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING LOCATION (AND COVERAGE)
OF BEST POPS. GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL DEPICT A GENERALLY WET
AFTERNOON/EVENING TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM/SREF SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND QPF. FOR NOW...UNTIL BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...HV DECIDED TO TAKE A HYBRID OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS. WL PLAY ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF OF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION FOR TOTAL QPF...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
GEM/NAM TIMING WITH THE IDEA THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HELD ON TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. 1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST
PRD. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CNDTNS XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
WED IN THE 50S...NR 60 THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MON NGT...PTNTL FOR MVFR CIGS TUE INTO WED. LLVL FLO FM
THE SSW (AOB 10 KT) FOR A WHL TDA...B4 BCMG LGT/VRBL FM THIS AFTN
THROUGH TNGT. GENLY SLY WNDS XPCTD MON INTO MON NGT W/ SPDS RMNG AOB
10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW WNDS CONTG TO GRDLY DCRS...SEAS SUBSIDE...(ERY) THIS MRNG.
OTRW...HI PRES INVOF RGN TDA/TNGT...B4 SLIDING OFFSHR FOR MON/MON
NGT. WNDS GRDLY BCMG ONSHR...THOUGH RMNG AOB 10 KT ERY IN THE WK.
MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR TUE/WED PD AS PSBL LO PRES PASS NR OR RMNS S OF
WTRS. WL BLEND LATEST SHORT TERM GUID/FCST W/ CURRENT MIDWEEK FCST
FOR NOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR/SMF

000
FXUS61 KLWX 080840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. ANY PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE RIDGES/HIGHLANDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...PAVING THE WAY FOR A SUNNY DAY AS RIDGE ENHANCED
DRY/SUBSIDING AIR DOMINATES. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60 FOR MOST
PLACES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS PERHAPS MOVING IN LATE ON THE
BACK OF THE RIDGE. SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BUT MINS WILL
STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PERHAPS HIGHEST OVER THE
RIDGES DUE TO THE INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLY FLOW PRVLS MON...CONTG ABOVE NRML TEMPS. FOR TUE INTO WED...FCST
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IDA AND SRN STREAM STORM
SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS SE US. FOR NOW WILL PLAN ON THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING S OF THE CWA...WITH MID-ATLC SANDWICHED BTWN THE SRN STORM
AND STRONG UPR SHRTWV DIGGING OUT OF GREAT LAKES INTO NE CONUS. WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...LOW POPS TUE/TUE NGT WITH
FROPA...BCMG BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WED/THU. HIPRES BUILDS IN BEHIND
FRONT THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGH 30 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...LEADING TO A WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL...WEAK GRADIENT WILL MEANS
SPEEDS AOB 5 KT.

HIPRES DOMINATES INTO ERY NEXT WK...WITH VFR CONDS THRU MON NGT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY. CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY CONDS FOR
WED.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS.

NO MARINE ISSUES XCPD UNTIL LATE TUE NGT AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATER. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CREATE WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW
PRESSURE...GALE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PSBL. BY FRIDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN/SBK
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PELOQUIN/SBK
MARINE...PELOQUIN/SBK

000
FXUS61 KPHI 080757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
257 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST, AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF FROST
TO SCRAPE OFF. TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN 40S MONDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT`S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT JUST WELL
TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE GET
INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
I`M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE CAN LOOK FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. THE FEW SC TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PREDAWN FOG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS, MAINLY NW OR THE PHILLY METRO AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.MARINE...

WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT AT 44009 EARLY THIS MORNING
AND NEVER REACHED 5 FT AT 44065. THEREFORE, WILL DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL
BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY
FROM HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN,
MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD
GET STUCK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIDGES...AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THERE SEEMS TO BE
SOME LIMITED BUILDING OF THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
SOME CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS GREENE/MARION COUNTIES DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
INVERSION DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT MILD MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR VFR CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FKL-DUJ. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE MVFR VIS IN
FOG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ZZV/FKL. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080252
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD DAWN AS RECENT NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW LIFTING NEAR THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LAYER THAT COULD
INDUCE CLOUDS TO FORM THEN. ONCE THE WARM FRONTAL TYPE INVERSION
BREAKS MID MORNING...THE CLOUDS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE.

RAISED FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON
WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT CLOUDS TO
THWART NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. TWEAKED FORECASTED HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY UP BY A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S AND RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED MAINLY AT
RELATIVELY NEW STATIONS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING, MAGNITUDE
OF COLD AIR, AND DEPTH OF UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.  EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL THUS BE OF GENERAL
PERSISTENCE WITH DECLINING PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THEREAFTER, QUICK MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO, THEN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IS EXPECTED WITH FLAT RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY.  THAT RIDGE, WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES TO RETARD SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WILL
PROVIDE A DRY CLOSE TO THE WORK-WEEK.

BY SATURDAY, NEXT LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE APPROACH SO PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...HEDGED BY GOING WITH MVFR STRATUS AND
FOG FOR TAF SITES NORTH OF THE KZZV-KPIT CORRIDOR WHILE
MAINTAINING CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS SOUTH.

EXPECT AS WARM FRONTAL INVERSION BREAKS BY MID MORNING FOR ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH 4-6 KTS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS MOVES THROUGH FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KLWX 080208
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
908 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA
TOMORROW...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

WOW. NOV NGT TIME WX DOESN`T GET TOO MUCH BETTER THAN THIS. IT IS
HARD FOR ME TO THINK OF A TIME WHEN THE NATL COMP RDR HAS BEEN SO
QUIET - NARY AN ECHO FM THE ATLC CST TO THE MIDWEST. SFC ANLYS
REVEALED 90 DEG AIR OVR WRN OK THIS AFTN...AND THE WARMER AIR IS
COMING E. CERTAINLY IT WON`T BE NEARLY THAT WARM...BUT NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE 2ND WK OF NOV NORMS OF THE
U50S FOR HIGHS. ENJOY.

PRVS DCSN...

HIPRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
SEWD BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC WX PATTERN. WLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR FROM THE C CONUS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL INVERSION IN THE
FIRST 3 KFT ABOVE THE GROUND. THIS INVERSION COMBINED WITH
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER MIN TEMPS COMPARED
TO COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. FCST LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
LOCATIONS BELOW 1 KFT TO NEAR 50F FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2 KFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THRU BY THE ERY
IN THE PD. SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT NWLY IN WAKE OF TROUGH BUT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AS HIPRES RIDGE SETTLES OVRHD. WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE...MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MU60S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
CWFA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO WILL OPT TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOKS LIKE UNTIL THE FROPA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN THE VALLEYS.
ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /TNGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND SUN.

NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION CAN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PLAN IS TO LET SCA EXPIRE AT 02Z. WINDS RELAX LATE THIS EVNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME LGT OVRNGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.

SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY IS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND GUST POTENTIAL MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...WINDS
ALOFT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...JRK/NWL

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080136
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
836 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 30S TO LOW 40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLR-MO/CLR SKIES IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON AS A LARGE HIGH PRES
SYSTEM HOLDS OVER THE RGN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S SUN NIGHT
AND UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 MON NIGHT.

NAM/GFS DIFFER ON OVERALL SOLN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN TWO
HIGH PRES SYSTEMS. HAVE WENT WITH THE SLWR SOLN LATER ON TUE.
CURRENTLY HOLDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLN THIS FCST PACKAGE. GFS NOT CONSISTENT IN ITS
HANDLING OF SRN MSTR. CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS IN FOR NOW (LOW CHC ACROSS NC CNTYS ALLOWING FOR ANY
SRN MSTR THAT MAY MAKE IT THAT FAR N). FA MAY END UP IN THE "SPLIT"
ZONE BTWN MSTR TO THE N & S.

1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST PRD. P-GRDNT
BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CNDTNS
XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WED IN THE 50S...NR 60
THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH
HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST...EXPECT LGT S TO SW WNDS
THROUGH SUN. COULD SEE MORE OF A SE COMPONENT ALNG CSTL TAF SITES
SUN AFTN. A COLD FRONT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W
WED WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH RUC/WRF INDCTG A SVRL HR PRD OF INCRSD WNDS (15-20KTS) ACROSS
THE CHES BAY THIS EVE. SO AFTR COORD WITH LWX...DECIDED TO HOIST SCA
HEADLINES ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WNDS
THEN PROGGED TO DMNSH BY MORNING.

ALSO, WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS ACROSS THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS, AND SEAS HAVE REACHED 5.2 FT AT BUOY 09 AS OF 1Z.
18Z SWAN DID AN EXCELLANT JOB OF CATCHING THIS INCREASE IN SEAS
OVR THE NRN TWO COASTAL ZONES, AND HAVE THUS RE-POPULATED SEAS
WITH SWAN GUIDANCE AND HOISTED A SCA FOR OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SUN THRU TUE WITH WNDS AOB 15
KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. RETURN SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCRS A BIT TUE
AHEAD OF NXT CDFRNT. THIS FRNT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NITE. WNDS SHFT INTO N-NW AND INCRS INTO SCA RANGE BY LATE TUE NITE.
P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR THE NE AND 1030+MB HIGH BLDG E CUD
RESULT IN LOW END GALES ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS BY ERLY WED. WILL CAP
GUSTS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR/SMF

000
FXUS61 KPHI 080128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
828 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER INFLUENCE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOW FOR THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR CWA AND IN SPITE OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT, THEY HAVE NEARLY DECOUPLED. WE ARE SEEING SOME SC AND AC
DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE AND WESTERN NY, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
WINDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING NVA AFTER ABT 03Z SHOULD
HELP FIGHT THE CLOUDS TRYING TO ENTER OUR CWA. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS WEAKER ALONG OUR BORDERS WITH BGM AND OKX, WE HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WIND DOWNWARD AS PER CURRENT OBS AND THE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC 18Z MODEL DATA.

THEREFORE, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT UNDER, PERHAPS, SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS /NOT A GREAT
DEAL, AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE WAY NORTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN RESPONSE. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO, SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BE A FAIR RADIATING NIGHT /THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHOICE REGARDING
MINS BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV AND THE WARMER MET/. THAT SAID, THE
GENERAL TENOR IS FOR DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS THAT MAY EVENTUALLY
HAVE US REFERRING TO INDIAN SUMMER.

A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ONCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, AND
FOR NOW WE`VE GONE WITH THE TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF OVER THE
ATYPICALLY QUICKER 12Z NAM OR THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS PUSH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOISTURE
FROM IDA OUT OF OUR AREA, AND THE FRONT WOULD NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT ENDS UP BEING CORRECT.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ALSO MAY BE AN
UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDING SUPPORT, AND WE WON`T YET DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS KEEP THE IDA MOISTURE TOO FAR SOUTH, SO
WE`LL GO A BIT HIGHER WITH POPS ON TUESDAY THAN HPC IS GOING. WITH
THE ADVANCING FRONT, WE`LL LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH WE WON`T OVERDO IT AS THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG. CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED FOR TUESDAY
AS IT SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH OUR TIMING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY, STAYING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG
AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE KINK IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IN THE GULF MAKING ITS WAY UP NORTH. THE GFS
TAKES THE REMNANT SYSTEM AND THEN MOVES IT UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME
DECENT RAIN TOT HE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER SOLUTION IN WHICH THE HIGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE AND KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH. THE CANADIAN MODEL
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE AND KEEP THE REMNANT LOW FROM PUSHING NORTHWARD THUS
KEEPING THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THEREFORE, WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIGHTER SUNDAY
AND WITH MILDER AIR ARRIVING, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY TURN SOUTH OR
EVEN SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT KILG AND KACY DUE TO A POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE FROM NEARBY WATER.

OTHERWISE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS RATHER LOW. WHILE A TOUCH OF RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KRDG, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ONTO THE
AIRFIELD /IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP/, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A POSSIBLE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR WATERS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH, THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOME RELATED TO A LOW-LEVEL JET.

AS A RESULT OF THIS JET AND SOME VERTICAL MIXING, SEAS HAVE RISEN
TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009 THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING UP NEAR 25
KNOTS. WE HAVE THEREFORE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OCEAN FRONT IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT FOR A TIME TO THE WEST. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POSSIBLE STORM IS TO OUR
EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH CAA WILL COMBINE FOR MORE EFFICIENT VERTICAL
MIXING AND AN INCREASED CHC OF WINDS/SEAS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN/, MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED OR IT COULD
JUST GET STUCK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE DID NOT GO WITH THE 12Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE /GFS
DRIVEN/ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS OVERDONE
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 080044
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
744 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER INFLUENCE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOW FOR THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR CWA AND IN SPITE OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT, THEY HAVE NEARLY DECOUPLED. WE ARE SEEING SOME SC AND AC
DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE AND WESTERN NY, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
WINDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING NVA AFTER ABT 03Z SHOULD
HELP FIGHT THE CLOUDS TRYING TO ENTER OUR CWA. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS WEAKER ALONG OUR BORDERS WITH BGM AND OKX, WE HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WIND DOWNWARD AS PER CURRENT OBS AND THE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC 18Z MODEL DATA.

THEREFORE, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT UNDER, PERHAPS, SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS /NOT A GREAT
DEAL, AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE WAY NORTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN RESPONSE. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO, SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BE A FAIR RADIATING NIGHT /THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHOICE REGARDING
MINS BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV AND THE WARMER MET/. THAT SAID, THE
GENERAL TENOR IS FOR DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS THAT MAY EVENTUALLY
HAVE US REFERRING TO INDIAN SUMMER.

A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ONCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, AND
FOR NOW WE`VE GONE WITH THE TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF OVER THE
ATYPICALLY QUICKER 12Z NAM OR THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS PUSH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOISTURE
FROM IDA OUT OF OUR AREA, AND THE FRONT WOULD NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT ENDS UP BEING CORRECT.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ALSO MAY BE AN
UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDING SUPPORT, AND WE WON`T YET DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS KEEP THE IDA MOISTURE TOO FAR SOUTH, SO
WE`LL GO A BIT HIGHER WITH POPS ON TUESDAY THAN HPC IS GOING. WITH
THE ADVANCING FRONT, WE`LL LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH WE WON`T OVERDO IT AS THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG. CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED FOR TUESDAY
AS IT SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH OUR TIMING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY, STAYING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG
AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE KINK IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IN THE GULF MAKING ITS WAY UP NORTH. THE GFS
TAKES THE REMNANT SYSTEM AND THEN MOVES IT UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME
DECENT RAIN TOT HE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER SOLUTION IN WHICH THE HIGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE AND KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH. THE CANADIAN MODEL
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE AND KEEP THE REMNANT LOW FROM PUSHING NORTHWARD THUS
KEEPING THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THEREFORE, WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIGHTER SUNDAY
AND WITH MILDER AIR ARRIVING, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY TURN SOUTH OR
EVEN SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT KILG AND KACY DUE TO A POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE FROM NEARBY WATER.

OTHERWISE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS RATHER LOW. WHILE A TOUCH OF RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KRDG, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ONTO THE
AIRFIELD /IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP/, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A POSSIBLE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER WITH IT MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT, A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT FOR A TIME TO THE
WEST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOME RELATED TO A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS IS WITHIN A WAA
REGIME, THEREFORE IT IS MOSTLY A QUESTION OF VERTICALLY MIXING THIS
WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT TENDS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DO THIS
IN WAA PATTERNS AND THIS LATEST ONE LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEING REACHED, WE OPTED TO NOT HOIST THE ADVISORY AND GO WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR NOW. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POSSIBLE STORM IS TO OUR
EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH CAA WILL COMBINE FOR MORE EFFICIENT VERTICAL
MIXING AND AN INCREASED CHC OF WINDS/SEAS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN/, MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED OR IT COULD
JUST GET STUCK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE DID NOT GO WITH THE 12Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE /GFS
DRIVEN/ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS OVERDONE
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 30S TO LOW 40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLR-MO/CLR SKIES IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON AS A LARGE HIGH PRES
SYSTEM HOLDS OVER THE RGN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S SUN NIGHT
AND UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 MON NIGHT.

NAM/GFS DIFFER ON OVERALL SOLN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN TWO
HIGH PRES SYSTEMS. HAVE WENT WITH THE SLWR SOLN LATER ON TUE.
CURRENTLY HOLDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLN THIS FCST PACKAGE. GFS NOT CONSISTENT IN ITS
HANDLING OF SRN MSTR. CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS IN FOR NOW (LOW CHC ACROSS NC CNTYS ALLOWING FOR ANY
SRN MSTR THAT MAY MAKE IT THAT FAR N). FA MAY END UP IN THE "SPLIT"
ZONE BTWN MSTR TO THE N & S.

1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST PRD. P-GRDNT
BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CNDTNS
XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WED IN THE 50S...NR 60
THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH
HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST...EXPECT LGT S TO SW WNDS
THROUGH SUN. COULD SEE MORE OF A SE COMPONENT ALNG CSTL TAF SITES
SUN AFTN. A COLD FRONT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W
WED WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH RUC/WRF INDCTG A SVRL HR PRD OF INCRSD WNDS (15-20KTS) ACROSS
THE CHES BAY THIS EVE. SO AFTR COORD WITH LWX...DECIDED TO HOIST SCA
HEADLINES ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY THRU 05Z. WNDS THEN PROGGED TO
DMNSH AFTR MIDNITE.

HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SUN THRU TUE WITH WNDS AOB 15
KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. RETURN SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCRS A BIT TUE
AHEAD OF NXT CDFRNT. THIS FRNT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NITE. WNDS SHFT INTO N-NW AND INCRS INTO SCA RANGE BY LATE TUE NITE.
P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR THE NE AND 1030+MB HIGH BLDG E CUD
RESULT IN LOW END GALES ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS BY ERLY WED. WILL CAP
GUSTS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 30S TO LOW 40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLR-MO/CLR SKIES IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON AS A LARGE HIGH PRES
SYSTEM HOLDS OVER THE RGN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S SUN NIGHT
AND UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 MON NIGHT.

NAM/GFS DIFFER ON OVERALL SOLN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN TWO
HIGH PRES SYSTEMS. HAVE WENT WITH THE SLWR SOLN LATER ON TUE.
CURRENTLY HOLDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLN THIS FCST PACKAGE. GFS NOT CONSISTENT IN ITS
HANDLING OF SRN MSTR. CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS IN FOR NOW (LOW CHC ACROSS NC CNTYS ALLOWING FOR ANY
SRN MSTR THAT MAY MAKE IT THAT FAR N). FA MAY END UP IN THE "SPLIT"
ZONE BTWN MSTR TO THE N & S.

1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST PRD. P-GRDNT
BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CNDTNS
XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WED IN THE 50S...NR 60
THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM A LOW OVER SRN CANADA HAS
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. S TO SW
WINDS INCREASED TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 17Z. MIXING OF THESE WINDS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS AT RIC AND SBY AND THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS AROUND SUNSET. WINDS BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE SUN
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AROUND THE
TAF SITES.

VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH
IT. HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH RUC/WRF INDCTG A SVRL HR PRD OF INCRSD WNDS (15-20KTS) ACROSS
THE CHES BAY THIS EVE. SO AFTR COORD WITH LWX...DECIDED TO HOIST SCA
HEADLINES ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY THRU 05Z. WNDS THEN PROGGED TO
DMNSH AFTR MIDNITE.

HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SUN THRU TUE WITH WNDS AOB 15
KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. RETURN SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCRS A BIT TUE
AHEAD OF NXT CDFRNT. THIS FRNT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NITE. WNDS SHFT INTO N-NW AND INCRS INTO SCA RANGE BY LATE TUE NITE.
P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR THE NE AND 1030+MB HIGH BLDG E CUD
RESULT IN LOW END GALES ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS BY ERLY WED. WILL CAP
GUSTS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KPHI 072013
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
INFLUENCE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOW FOR
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY KEEP
TONIGHT FROM BEING THE WHOLESALE RADIATING NIGHT THAT LAST NIGHT
WAS. WE GENERALLY HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
WHERE THERE IS A DIFFERENCE. ALSO, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BRING SOME
MOISTURE IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WITH THE NAM GENERALLY BEING
MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT THIS THAN THE GFS, AND BOTH DEFINITELY BEING
MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT IT UP NORTH THAN DOWN SOUTH. THEREFORE, WE
EXPECT A DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT UNDER,
PERHAPS, SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS /NOT A GREAT DEAL SOUTH, AND PERHAPS
A BIT MORE NORTH/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN RESPONSE. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO, SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BE A FAIR RADIATING NIGHT /THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHOICE REGARDING
MINS BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV AND THE WARMER MET/. THAT SAID, THE
GENERAL TENOR IS FOR DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS THAT MAY EVENTUALLY
HAVE US REFERRING TO INDIAN SUMMER.

A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ONCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, AND
FOR NOW WE`VE GONE WITH THE TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF OVER THE
ATYPICALLY QUICKER 12Z NAM OR THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS PUSH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOISTURE
FROM IDA OUT OF OUR AREA, AND THE FRONT WOULD NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT ENDS UP BEING CORRECT.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ALSO MAY BE AN
UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDING SUPPORT, AND WE WON`T YET DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS KEEP THE IDA MOISTURE TOO FAR SOUTH, SO
WE`LL GO A BIT HIGHER WITH POPS ON TUESDAY THAN HPC IS GOING. WITH
THE ADVANCING FRONT, WE`LL LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH WE WON`T OVERDO IT AS THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG. CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED FOR TUESDAY
AS IT SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH OUR TIMING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY, STAYING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG
AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE KINK IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IN THE GULF MAKING ITS WAY UP NORTH. THE GFS
TAKES THE REMNANT SYSTEM AND THEN MOVES IT UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME
DECENT RAIN TOT HE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER SOLUTION IN WHICH THE HIGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE AND KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH. THE CANADIAN MODEL
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE AND KEEP THE REMNANT LOW FROM PUSHING NORTHWARD THUS
KEEPING THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THEREFORE, WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH HAS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE LATEST DATA INDICATES SOME 25 KNOTS OF WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. MOST OF THIS WILL NOT MIX DOWN INTO THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE AIR MASS MODERATING, ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
SURFACE, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUSTAINED WINDS,
THEREFORE WE JUST BUMPED UP THE SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, THE VERTICAL
MIXING WILL QUICKLY WANE THEREFORE THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO SOME WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY OF
10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD EVENING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIGHTER SUNDAY AND WITH
MILDER AIR ARRIVING, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY TURN SOUTH OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT KILG AND KACY DUE TO A POSSIBLE INFLUENCE
FROM NEARBY WATER.

OTHERWISE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS RATHER LOW. WHILE A TOUCH OF RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KRDG, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ONTO THE
AIRFIELD /IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP/, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A POSSIBLE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER WITH IT MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT, A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT FOR A TIME TO THE
WEST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOME RELATED TO A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS IS WITHIN A WAA
REGIME, THEREFORE IT IS MOSTLY A QUESTION OF VERTICALLY MIXING THIS
WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT TENDS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DO THIS
IN WAA PATTERNS AND THIS LATEST ONE LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEING REACHED, WE OPTED TO NOT HOIST THE ADVISORY AND GO WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR NOW. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POSSIBLE STORM IS TO OUR
EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH CAA WILL COMBINE FOR MORE EFFICIENT VERTICAL
MIXING AND AN INCREASED CHC OF WINDS/SEAS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN/, MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED OR IT COULD
JUST GET STUCK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE DID NOT GO WITH THE 12Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE /GFS
DRIVEN/ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS OVERDONE
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE

000
FXUS61 KLWX 072000
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA
TOMORROW...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
SEWD BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC WX PATTERN. A VERY
WEAK LLVL SHORTWAVE AND SFC PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION LATE TNGT. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR FROM THE C
CONUS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL
INVERSION IN THE FIRST 3 KFT ABOVE THE GROUND. THIS INVERSION
COMBINED WITH MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER MIN
TEMPS COMPARED TO COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS. FCST LOWS RANGE FROM
AROUND 40F IN LOCATIONS BELOW 1 KFT TO NEAR 50F FOR ELEVATIONS AOA
2 KFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THRU BY THE ERY
IN THE PD. SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT NWLY IN WAKE OF TROUGH BUT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AS HIPRES RIDGE SETTLES OVRHD. WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE...MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MU60S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
CWFA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE NUMBERS
FOR THIS PERIOD...SO WILL OPT TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOKS LIKE UNTIL THE FROPA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY TEMPS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN THE VALLEYS.
ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TNGT AND SUN. SLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL RELAX TOWARDS SUNSET. A SUBTLE PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL PUSH THRU OVRNGT...SHIFTING THE WINDS W-NWLY SUN.

NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION CAN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 02Z THIS EVNG IN THE MD CHSPK BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. SLY CHANNELING WILL PROLONG 20 KT GUST
POTENTIAL THRU THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS RELAX LATE THIS EVNG. WINDS
WILL BECOME LGT OVRNGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES SETTLES OVRHD.

SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY IS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND GUST POTENTIAL MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...WINDS
ALOFT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES DURING THIS
PERIOD.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
KLEIN/LISTEMAA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071830
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WENT JUST
UNDER MOS TONIGHT AS WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLE DECOUPLING
MAY BE ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN A BIT. NEAR WARM MOS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S AND RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED MAINLY AT
RELATIVELY NEW STATIONS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING, MAGNITUDE
OF COLD AIR, AND DEPTH OF UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.  EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL THUS BE OF GENERAL
PERSISTENCE WITH DECLINING PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THEREAFTER, QUICK MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO, THEN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IS EXPECTED WITH FLAT RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY.  THAT RIDGE, WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES TO RETARD SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WILL
PROVIDE A DRY CLOSE TO THE WORK-WEEK.

BY SATURDAY, NEXT LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE APPROACH SO PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
CANADA.  RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS HAS/WILL
GENERATE AFTERNOON  WIND OF APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
SLIGHTLY OVER 20KTS.

WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND AS SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY IN THE EARLY MORNING OF SUNDAY.  HAVE THUS FORECAST SOME
VFR CEILINGS AT FKL AND DUJ AS PER EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THAT
WEAKENING FRONT, WHICH SHOULD WASH OUT RAPIDLY AS SUNDAY MORNING
PROGRESSES.

GENERAL VFR IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO VFR WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071747
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE RGN ASSOCD WITH THE NOSE OF AN
UPR LVL JET MAX (H50-30 LVLS). OTHERWISE...M/S SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW/MID
60S INLAND.

SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (UPR 30S TO LOW 40S) FOR TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ANOTHER VERY NICE WX DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPR RIDGE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE...TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
ANOTHER GENERALLY BENIGN...PLEASANT WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN
ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WX ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND ZONES...UPPER 60S/NR70
ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN`T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...AROUND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM A LOW OVER SRN CANADA HAS
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. S TO SW
WINDS INCREASED TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 17Z. MIXING OF THESE WINDS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS AT RIC AND SBY AND THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS AROUND SUNSET. WINDS BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE SUN
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AROUND THE
TAF SITES.

VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH
IT. HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR THE MOST PART...MARINE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WHEN SLY WINDS ON THE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL SCA WILL BE
NEEDED...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW SCA FOR NOW...AND DAY SHIFT CAN
MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
CRITERIA...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS DROP OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY LOOKING VERY NICE FOR MARINERS. NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/WED...WITH A NLY/NWLY SURGE LIKELY BEHIND
FNT. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS MARINE AREA WIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...WRS

000
FXUS61 KPHI 071737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TODAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN INTO THE TWENTIES THIS MORNING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON ENDED TWO DAYS AGO ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MORNING CHILL IN THE AIR
WILL TURN INTO A NICE SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING BY TONIGHT WITH
A FEW CLOUDS WELL NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 5 OR 6 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CAN`T HELP BUT NOTICE THE HUGE OUTFLOW FROM T.S. IDA WHICH IS TAKING
UP THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MOISTURE FROM T.S. IDA AND THE APPROACHING FRONT
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT WILL NOT REACH US LATE THIS
PERIOD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY`S HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST MODELS KEEP THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THEN
SWEEP IT OFFSHORE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE GEM ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOWS A LOW FORMING IN THE TENNESSEE WITH THE MOISTURE FROM
THE T.S. MOVING NORTHEAST.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT IT STARTS OUT RELATIVELY BENIGN. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE EARLY ON AND A DRY FCST
IS IN STORE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN, THINGS GET MORE MUDDLED.

A SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACRS ERN CANADA ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CDFNT
THROUGH THE MID-ATLC.  THE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THAT
OCCURRENCE.  HOWEVER, THEN THE DIFFS SET IN.  MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH
WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SERN CONUS.
HOW THIS INTERACTS WITH THE CDFNT AND WHERE IT MOVES IS THE MAJOR
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A VERY STRONG HIGH PRES SYS
OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS HIGH HELPS
SUPPRESS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE TO THE S OF OUR REGION.  THE GFS
IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS SO AND IS ALSO
STRONGER WITH THE H5 TROF BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY
BE A PLAYER AS WELL.  THE CMC IS LESS HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE, WHICH BRINGS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE UP
OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES.  THE CMC IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER, BUT IT
HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THE EXTENDD PORTION OF THE FCST OF LATE.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS MOISTURE AND FRONT, ALL MDL
INDICATE THAT BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND DRY WX.  DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT, WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHNGS TO THE
FCST.  ATTM, WILL FOLLOW GUID TEMPS AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH HAS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE LATEST DATA INDICATES SOME 20 KNOTS OF WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IT IS BELIEVED THAT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
MIX DOWN DUE TO THE AIR MASS MODERATING, ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE COME UP A LITTLE BIT MORE,
THEREFORE WE BUMPED UP THE SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, THE VERTICAL MIXING
WILL QUICKLY WANE THEREFORE THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO SOME WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY OF
10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD EVENING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIGHTER SUNDAY AND WITH
MILDER AIR ARRIVING, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY TURN SOUTH OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT KILG AND KACY DUE TO A POSSIBLE INFLUENCE
FROM NEARBY WATER.

OTHERWISE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS RATHER LOW. WHILE A TOUCH OF RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KRDG, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ONTO THE
AIRFIELD /IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP/, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A POSSIBLE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
SMALL SEAS TO OUR WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND/OR SEAS COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE HIGH REACHES OUR AREA AND BRINGS A RETURN
TO MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...RPW

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071617
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1117 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE RGN ASSOCD WITH THE NOSE OF AN
UPR LVL JET MAX (H50-30 LVLS). OTHERWISE...M/S SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW/MID
60S INLAND.

SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (UPR 30S TO LOW 40S) FOR TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ANOTHER VERY NICE WX DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPR RIDGE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE...TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
ANOTHER GENERALLY BENIGN...PLEASANT WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN
ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WX ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND ZONES...UPPER 60S/NR70
ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN`T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...AROUND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE
MID ATLNC RGN. A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BRING A FEW HIGH PASSING
CLDS BY EARLY AFTN MON...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK COLD
FNT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN
WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR THE MOST PART...MARINE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WHEN SLY WINDS ON THE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL SCA WILL BE
NEEDED...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW SCA FOR NOW...AND DAY SHIFT CAN
MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
CRITERIA...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS DROP OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY LOOKING VERY NICE FOR MARINERS. NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/WED...WITH A NLY/NWLY SURGE LIKELY BEHIND
FNT. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS MARINE AREA WIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS

000
FXUS61 KLWX 071557
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1057 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY SAG SEWD OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTN BUT CONTROL THE MID ATLANTIC WX PATTERN. TEMPS
SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND FROM A COLD START THIS MRNG AS SLY WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MODERATE THE AIRMASS OVRHD. WEIGHTED MORE
TOWARDS MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WHICH HAVE VERIFIED THE BEST
RECENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW SENDS WEAK CDFNT THRU LATE SAT NGT. INCRD
CLOUDS...SPCLY NRN ZONES...AND WDSHFT TO WNW ONLY EFFECTS OF FROPA
ON MID ATLC. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...MINIMA XPCD TO BE 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT MRNG.

HIPRES AT THE SFC AND UPR LEVELS BUILDS ON SUN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS RISE ABOVE AVERAGE. USED A MAV/MET BLEND
TO OBTAIN MAXIMA IN M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SANDWICHED IN TUE NIGHT. FROM SUN 12Z TO TUE 12Z...A POSITIVE H85
TEMP ANOMALY OF +1SD WHICH TRANSLATES THIS TIME OF YEAR TO +12C AT
H85 WILL GIVE OUR REGION A COUPLE OF PLEASANT INDIAN SUMMER DAYS ON
MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MAYBE LOWER 70S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON LATE TUE AFT OR ERLY EVENING...WITH
A DIGGING H5 TROF.  THE GEFS WASHES OUT THE PCPN...WITH ONLY A
COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING ANY PCPN ON TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE 20 POP BUT ANTICIPATE ATTM LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
DRYNESS IN FUEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON WED.

HIGH PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI.

GEFS HAS A PCPN SYSTEM MOVING INTO REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SCT HI CI TDA...MSTLY CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE WEEKEND.

SLY WINDS 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT TDA BECOME WLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TNGT AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. LGT WLY WINDS XPCD SUN.

LONG TERM NOT OF CONCERN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THOUGHOUT PERIOD.  POTL
FOR TURB TUE NIGHT ACROSS REGN WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOC WITH
DIGGING TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE US.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED LATE THIS MRNG WITH SLY CHANNELING ACROSS THE
CHSPK BAY. SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC THRU SUNSET.

BY SUNSET MIXING SUBSIDES...AND WINDS SHUD RETURN BELOW SCA
SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME WLY ERY SUN AS CDFNT PASSES OVER WATERS...BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO SCA LEVELS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS MODELS
SHOW STRONG LLVL JET AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...KLEIN
PREV DISC...SBK/JEL

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE DEGREES AS MORNING
IS OFF TO A WARMER START. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-70 REACHING THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MID
CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED
TO CLIP THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KLWX 071320
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
820 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95 WITH
TEMPS QUICKLY RISING TO ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RDG CURRENTLY OVHD...WITH TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BELOW
FRZG...XCPT FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ALONG CHESAPEAKE. PATCHY
OF CI STREAMING INTO WRN ZONES...WHICH SHUD PASS THRU THE AREA
THIS MRNG.

HIPRES SLIDES S/E TODAY...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW. 850MB WAA
PERSISTS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. FOR
MAXIMA...WENT ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AMPLE AFTN SUN SHUD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS IN U50S/L60S E OF BLUE RIDGE...60S WRN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW SENDS WEAK CDFNT THRU LATE SAT NGT. INCRD
CLOUDS...SPCLY NRN ZONES...AND WDSHFT TO WNW ONLY EFFECTS OF FROPA
ON MID ATLC. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...MINIMA XPCD TO BE 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT MRNG.

HIPRES AT THE SFC AND UPR LEVELS BUILDS ON SUN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS RISE ABOVE AVERAGE. USED A MAV/MET BLEND
TO OBTAIN MAXIMA IN M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SANDWICHED IN TUE NIGHT. FROM SUN 12Z TO TUE 12Z...A POSITIVE H85
TEMP ANOMALY OF +1SD WHICH TRANSLATES THIS TIME OF YEAR TO +12C AT
H85 WILL GIVE OUR REGION A COUPLE OF PLEASANT INDIAN SUMMER DAYS ON
MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MAYBE LOWER 70S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON LATE TUE AFT OR ERLY EVENING...WITH
A DIGGING H5 TROF.  THE GEFS WASHES OUT THE PCPN...WITH ONLY A
COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING ANY PCPN ON TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE 20 POP BUT ANTICIPATE ATTM LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
DRYNESS IN FUEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON WED.

HIGH PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI.

GEFS HAS A PCPN SYSTEM MOVING INTO REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT CI AOA 20KFT WILL OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS THIS MRNG...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. SLY WINDS
5-10 MPH THIS AFTN BECOME WLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT AS CDFNT PASSES
THRU. LGT WLY WINDS XPCD SUN.

LONG TERM NOT OF CONCERN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THOUGHOUT PERIOD.  POTL
FOR TURB TUE NIGHT ACROSS REGN WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOC WITH
DIGGING TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE US.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRDLY BCMG MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS ERY THIS MRNG. AS
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT INCRS THIS AFTN...925 MB WINDS 30+
KTS...MIXING AND CHANNELING SHUD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED 15 KT
WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AOA 20 KTS. SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTN FOR MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. BY SUNSET
MIXING SUBSIDES...AND WINDS SHUD RETURN BELOW SCA SPEEDS. WINDS
BECOME WLY ERY SUN AS CDFNT PASSES OVER WATERS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO SCA LEVELS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS MODELS
SHOW STRONG LLVL JET AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK/JEL
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/SBK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JEL
AVIATION...SBK/JEL
MARINE...SBK/JEL

000
FXUS61 KLWX 070852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RDG CURRENTLY OVHD...WITH TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BELOW FRZG...XCPT
FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ALONG CHESAPEAKE. PATCHY OF CI STREAMING
INTO WRN ZONES...WHICH SHUD PASS THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG.

HIPRES SLIDES S/E TODAY...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW. 850MB WAA
PERSISTS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. FOR
MAXIMA...WENT ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AMPLE AFTN SUN SHUD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS IN U50S/L60S E OF BLUE RIDGE...60S WRN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW SENDS WEAK CDFNT THRU LATE SAT NGT. INCRD
CLOUDS...SPCLY NRN ZONES...AND WDSHFT TO WNW ONLY EFFECTS OF FROPA
ON MID ATLC. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...MINIMA XPCD TO BE 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT MRNG.

HIPRES AT THE SFC AND UPR LEVELS BUILDS ON SUN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS RISE ABOVE AVERAGE. USED A MAV/MET BLEND
TO OBTAIN MAXIMA IN M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SANDWICHED IN TUE NIGHT. FROM SUN 12Z TO TUE 12Z...A POSITIVE H85
TEMP ANOMALY OF +1SD WHICH TRANSLATES THIS TIME OF YEAR TO +12C AT
H85 WILL GIVE OUR REGION A COUPLE OF PLEASANT INDIAN SUMMER DAYS ON
MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MAYBE LOWER 70S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON LATE TUE AFT OR ERLY EVENING...WITH
A DIGGING H5 TROF.  THE GEFS WASHES OUT THE PCPN...WITH ONLY A
COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING ANY PCPN ON TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE 20 POP BUT ANTICIPATE ATTM LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
DRYNESS IN FUEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON WED.

HIGH PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI.

GEFS HAS A PCPN SYSTEM MOVING INTO REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT CI AOA 20KFT WILL OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS THIS MRNG...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. SLY WINDS
5-10 MPH THIS AFTN BECOME WLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT AS CDFNT PASSES
THRU. LGT WLY WINDS XPCD SUN.

LONG TERM NOT OF CONCERN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THOUGHOUT PERIOD.  POTL
FOR TURB TUE NIGHT ACROSS REGN WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOC WITH
DIGGING TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE US.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRDLY BCMG MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS ERY THIS MRNG. AS
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT INCRS THIS AFTN...925 MB WINDS 30+
KTS...MIXING AND CHANNELING SHUD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED 15 KT
WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AOA 20 KTS. SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTN FOR MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. BY SUNSET
MIXING SUBSIDES...AND WINDS SHUD RETURN BELOW SCA SPEEDS. WINDS
BECOME WLY ERY SUN AS CDFNT PASSES OVER WATERS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO SCA LEVELS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS MODELS
SHOW STRONG LLVL JET AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ006-007-011-
     013-014-016>018.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054>057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK/JEL
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JEL
AVIATION...SBK/JEL
MARINE...SBK/JEL

000
FXUS61 KPHI 070758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TODAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN INTO THE TWENTIES THIS MORNING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON ENDED TWO DAYS AGO ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MORNING CHILL IN THE AIR
WILL TURN INTO A NICE SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING BY TONIGHT WITH
A FEW CLOUDS WELL NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 5 OR 6 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CAN`T HELP BUT NOTICE THE HUGE OUTFLOW FROM T.S. IDA WHICH IS TAKING
UP THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MOISTURE FROM T.S. IDA AND THE APPROACHING FRONT
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT WILL NOT REACH US LATE THIS
PERIOD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY`S HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST MODELS KEEP THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THEN
SWEEP IT OFFSHORE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE GEM ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOWS A LOW FORMING IN THE TENNESSEE WITH THE MOISTURE FROM
THE T.S. MOVING NORTHEAST.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT IT STARTS OUT RELATIVELY BENIGN. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE EARLY ON AND A DRY FCST
IS IN STORE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN, THINGS GET MORE MUDDLED.

A SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACRS ERN CANADA ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CDFNT
THROUGH THE MID-ATLC.  THE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THAT
OCCURRENCE.  HOWEVER, THEN THE DIFFS SET IN.  MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH
WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SERN CONUS.
HOW THIS INTERACTS WITH THE CDFNT AND WHERE IT MOVES IS THE MAJOR
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A VERY STRONG HIGH PRES SYS
OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS HIGH HELPS
SUPPRESS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE TO THE S OF OUR REGION.  THE GFS
IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS SO AND IS ALSO
STRONGER WITH THE H5 TROF BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY
BE A PLAYER AS WELL.  THE CMC IS LESS HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE, WHICH BRINGS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE UP
OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES.  THE CMC IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER, BUT IT
HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THE EXTENDD PORTION OF THE FCST OF LATE.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS MOISTURE AND FRONT, ALL MDL
INDICATE THAT BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND DRY WX.  DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT, WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHNGS TO THE
FCST.  ATTM, WILL FOLLOW GUID TEMPS AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME THIN CI
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S 5 TO 10 KT TODAY AND
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
SMALL SEAS TO OUR WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND/OR SEAS COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE HIGH REACHES OUR AREA AND BRINGS A RETURN
TO MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALOFT...UPR LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE
LWR MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH LEVEL
AC/CI DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST WL THIN OUT A BIT AS THEY BEGIN TO DRIFT
INTO OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HAVE
INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL VA/MD
ZONES...ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH SCT AC/CI AROUND...SHOULD
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY TDA. AFTER A CHILLY START TO
THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY ON STRONG RETURN (SSW)
FLOW. TOUGH TO MIX H85 TEMPS DOWN THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO USED H92
TEMPS FOR T GRIDS TODAY. EARLY AFTERNOON H92 TEMPS AROUND +10 TO
+11C OVER THE WEST...+8 TO +9C OVER THE EAST WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO (MID 60S) OVER ALONG/WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE (U50S TO LOW 60S) OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA.

SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR (UPR 30S TO LOW 40S) FOR TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ANOTHER VERY NICE WX DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPR RIDGE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE...TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
ANOTHER GENERALLY BENIGN...PLEASANT WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN
ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WX ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND ZONES...UPPER 60S/NR70
ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN`T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...AROUND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID
ATLNC RGN. A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BRING A FEW HIGH PASSING
CLDS BY EARLY AFTN MON...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK
COLD FNT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF
PCPN WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR THE MOST PART...MARINE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WHEN SLY WINDS ON THE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL SCA WILL BE
NEEDED...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW SCA FOR NOW...AND DAY SHIFT CAN
MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
CRITERIA...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS DROP OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY LOOKING VERY NICE FOR MARINERS. NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/WED...WITH A NLY/NWLY SURGE LIKELY BEHIND
FNT. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS MARINE AREA WIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>016-
     030>032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ017.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ070>094-096-
     097-099.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-098-100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK WAVES
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...RESULTING IN A NICE
WARMUP FROM THIS MORNINGS COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. FOR TNGT...A FEW CLOUDS AND A MILDER AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-70 REACHING THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MID
CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED
TO CLIP THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070628
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PORTSMOUTH AND NORFOLK TO FROST ADVSY. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S AND LIGHT-CALM WINDS OVRNIGHT THIS AREA CUD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST AS WELL. PREV DISC FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN. WITH
DEW PTS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID-UPR 50
TO LWR 60S.

AS THE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE RGN TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLR SKIES WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS THIS AFTN WERE A FEW HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED...THIS
SHOULD NOT HAMPER FCSTD LOWS TNT AS TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL AFTER
SUNSET. KEPT SAME HEADLINES AS EARLIER TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND UPR 30S ALONG THE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S
ON SAT INLAND (UPR 50S ALONG THE COAST) AS A RETURN S-SW FLOW
STARTS TO DVLP. RETURN TO NEAR NRML LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(UPR 3S TO LOW 40S) FOR SAT NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
TRANQUIL DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN ON MON (SIMILAR TEMPS AS SUN)
WITH HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASN`T HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF (SRN STREAM WAVE)...HOWEVER OVER TIME (THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK) THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND (THUS) THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTRW...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...ARND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE (MID 60S TO LWR 70S)...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
(LOW-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID
ATLNC RGN. A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BRING A FEW HIGH PASSING
CLDS BY EARLY AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK COLD
FNT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN
WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF SCA.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS/WAVES TO DIMINISH MORE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING.

MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS...AND GREAT BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING NORTH OF REGION LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO INCREASE THE SLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO CAP CHANNELING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AOB 15 KTS ON THE BAY AND ~15 KTS ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>016-
     030>032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ017.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ070>094-096-
     097-099.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-098-100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...SMF/CCW/AM
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...BKH/AM