[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222138
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
438 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM SW TO NE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES
MOVNG FM THE FL PANHANDLE NE TO JUST OFF THE SE CST. IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LO LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (SW-NE) OVR THE
REGION...WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOT MOVNG INTO THE SRN/SW CNTIES
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENG. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACRS THE REGION FM
SW TO NE OVRNGT INTO MON MORNG. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES MOVES UP THE ERN SEABOARD MON THRU TUE. MOIST NE ONSHR FLO
AHEAD OF THE LO WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A DECENT RAINFALL ACRS THE
AREA DURING MON INTO ERLY MON EVENG (ESPLY LWR MD). QPF AMTS SHUD
BE BETWEEN .25 INCH TO .50 INCH MOST AREAS...WITH HIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE OVR THE SE. MAX TEMPS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR
60S.
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY UP THE CST LATER MON NGT THRU TUE
WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGON TUE AND TUE NGT. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT A MSTLY CLDY OR CLDY SKY TO DOMINATE OUR WX DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS FCST AREA REMAINS IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE SCENARIO WITH LO
LVLS MOIST ARND 850-900MB AND BELOW. VRY LGT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
STILL POSSIBLE ESPLY TUE MORNG...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ALL AREAS TUE NGT. LOWS MON NGT IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS
ON TUE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.
GENERALLY MSTLY CLDY STILL ON WED WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE
AFTN/EVENG...AS A WEAK COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WED NGT/THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF NOW BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID ATLC...WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
MOVING UP THE SE COAST. THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NNE AND OFF
THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST THU NGT/FRI. CARRIED 20-40% CHANCES FOR
SHWRS THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT (HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST).
AFTER THAT...GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPR
LOW...NOW CLOSING IT OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION FRI/FRI NGT.
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF STILL
KEEPING THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER VA (RATHER THAN THE
CAROLINAS). GIVEN THIS TRACK...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST A BIT CLOUDIER
AND ADDED 20-30% CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI AFTN/EVENING FOR CNTRL AND
NRN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE SOUTH DRY. ADDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD CVR SAT (PTLY SUNNY) BUT OVERALL A COOL DRY PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL W/ WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW. HIGHS FRI/SAT...ARND 50 FAR NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH. DRY W/ A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE E COAST FROM THE SW...HIGHS MID/UPR 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS AND STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE ONSHORE NE FLOW...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES.
RAIN OVER GEORGIA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS ALABAMA WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LAV USED TO FORECAST THE
START TIMES OF THE RAIN. CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH LGT
RAIN/BR AND TO IFR A FEW HOURS LATER IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH MET
AND MAV.
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON NIGHT BUT MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE
BY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR PCPN
AND LOWER CEILINGS THU. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS OVER THE CSTL WATERS HAVE COME UP TO 4-5 FT THIS AFTN...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT...SCA HEADLINES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL EXCEPT THE BAY N OF NEW PT COMFORT (COMING UP THERE LATER
THIS EVENING). MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WILL BE THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST...AND A 1035+ MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST/OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES W/ THE
POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN THEY HAD SHOWN YSDY.
WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES FOR MON (NO GALES). STILL...DO ANTICIPATE
20-25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COAST ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FCST SEAS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH (UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE). WINDS TURN TO THE NNW AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATER MON NGT AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT SCA HEADLINES STAY UP THROUGH THE 4TH PERIOD/TUE AFTN
FOR THE CSTL WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL/SEAS 5 FT+. ANOTHER SFC
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A STRG WNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL FLOODING NOT LOOKING TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN AS ASTRONOMICAL
VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW. ANOMALIES SHOULD BUILD TO 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATER MON/MON NGT (WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS).
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222111
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
411 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LOUISIANA TONIGHT TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY NIGHT MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY TO GIVE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS INDICATED BY RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES EXPECT FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
LOUISIANA HEADS TOWARD THE VIRGINIA COAST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
AS CONTINUED TO BE SHOWN BY SREF MODEL OUTPUT...THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWERS FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM COULD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.
FORECASTED CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD USING A BLEND
OF CLOSELY CONCURRING GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERAL SREF MODEL MEMBERS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL NAM MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHOWERS FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW NO RAIN FOR THE AREA. OUR CURRENT
SOLUTION WAS TO KEEP MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT FOR ONLY LOCATIONS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DAYTIME
TUESDAY.
BASED ON RECENT BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT THE
FIRST SHOWERS WITH THE INCOMING WESTERN SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED SLIGHTLY MILDER GFS MOS VALUES THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT WITH THESE
BEING THE FIRST TWO NIGHTS IN SOME TIME WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THERE WOULD BE ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
MODELS HAVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST
TO AFFECT LOCAL WEATHER. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY CLEAR BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE A FEW
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIRRUS SHIELD TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. FOR NOW...WILL JUST KEEP LOW VFR
CEILINGS AT MOST SITES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 222030
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD MOVE UP INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AT 3:00 PM, THERE WAS A NORTHEAST WIND AND TEMPERATURES WERE
MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR REGION. THE POCONOS AND PARTS OF FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WERE IN THE 40S.
THE CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WERE A BIT MORE STUBBORN THAN WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE EARLIER IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, AT MID AFTERNOON THE CLOUDS WERE SHOWING SIGNS
OF DISSIPATING. THERE WERE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS DRIFTING OFF THE
OCEAN AND TOWARD THE NEW JERSEY COAST.
ALL IN ALL, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN, AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO MENTION CHANCE
POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION, WITH SOME 30S POSSIBLE UP NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST OF CANADA`S MARITIME
PROVINCES ON MONDAY, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FARTHER INLAND ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE WORKING ITS WAY BACK TOWARD THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.
IN REGARD TO THE COASTAL LOW, THE 12 UTC GFS AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE FEATURE. THE 12 UTC NAM
REMAINS THE OUTLIER. THE LOW SHOULD PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIFT OVER OUR REGION LATE ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY MORNING.
WE ARE EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO WE ARE NOT INDICATING A GREAT
DEAL OF CLEARING FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE TO GET UNDERWAY AS WE START THIS
PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS
STRONG ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY, COUPLED
WITH THE JET STREAM POSITIONING, WILL TEND TO LEAD TO A CLOSED LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS AGREED UPON FAIRLY WELL BY THE COMPUTER
GUIDANCE, DETAILS ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT ALONG WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE
LOCATION AND TRACK OF A CLOSED MIDLEVEL CENTER /AS IT MOVES EAST
AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST/.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE INITIALIZED THE DATABASE WITH HPC
GUIDANCE /COMPRISED OF THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY/. WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.
BASED ON THE ABOVE, AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND SLIDES EASTWARD, ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE CHC OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A NEW SURFACE LOW FORMS TO OUR EAST. IF
THIS IS PRESENT, THEN PRECIPITATION COULD BE ENHANCED SOME
ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW APPROACHES. FOR FRIDAY, THE SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE PULLING UP INTO THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE?/ WITH EVEN SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW, WE JUST KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
AROUND AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES BY, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH SOME SHOWERS. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST
TO SETUP AS WE GO THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS COULD KEEP
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GOING SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO MOISTURE COULD GET PULLED
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF STREAMERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY ON THE
DECREASE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN FORMING AFTER SUNDOWN AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO START AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, AND THEN LOWER TO IFR BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE EAST
COAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. LOW CEILINGS,
VISIBILITIES, AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WHICH
COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF REPRIEVE LAST TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER COASTAL LOW ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP THE SEAS BUILD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, STARTING TONIGHT. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY, AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO
OUR NORTHEAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, ALLOWING WINDS
TO INCREASE AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT NOW FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LOWER BAY MAY GET SOME GUSTA UP TO 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WELL, SO WE HAVE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THERE AS WELL. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, LEADING
TO A BRIEF REPRIEVE FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA, WITH ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NEAR OUR AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TIDES TO BE HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT ASTRONOMICAL FORECASTS. WE WOULD STILL NEED AROUND A 1.5
TO 2 FT TIDAL SURGE ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE, BUT THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE ONLY PRODUCING 1 TO 1.5 FT TIDAL SURGES AT THIS TIME.
SO THE CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN ABOUT .5 TO 1.0 FT
BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
IN CASE THINGS CHANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION/MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 222000
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BY MONDAY
MORNING.
A LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE ACTUAL STORM SYSTEM REMAINING WELL TO
THE SOUTH...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...RAIN AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHEARS APART AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OUR
REGION. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO THE RAINFALL...RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO NEAR 50 IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY PCPN LINGERING MON NGT WUD BE AS A RSLT OF THE DEF AXIS ACRS
CWFA. HWVR...LOPRES RATHER WEAK...AND FAR OFFSHORE...SO DONT THINK
THAT PCPN WUD BE PLENTIFUL. WUD BE MORE CONCERNED ABT DZ...BUT SFC
WNDS NLY NOT NE/ELY.
HIPRES BRIEFLY BLDS TUE-TUE NGT. BUT IT SHUD BE A DIRTY RDG AS AMPLE
LLVL MSTR STILL LINGERS. SUNSHN SHUD BE LMTD...ASSUMING IT CAN BRK
THRU MARINE STRATUS. BASED ON TKNS OF MARINE DECK ON MDL
TIME-HGTS...THAT/LL BE A BIG ASSUMPTION. SUSPECT LLVL CLDS WL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DZ TO DVLP TUE NGT...SPCLY SINCE SFC HIGH WEDGED A LA
CAD AND H9-8 FLOW BCMG SLY.
CMPLX SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR MID WK...AS S/WV ENERGY DROPS INTO
CNTRL PLAINS...CUTTING OFF H5 LOW BY TUE. ADDTL VORTS CARVE OUT A
2ND LOW...WHICH WL DEEPEN LOW OVR GRTLKS BY THU. LCLLY...CWFA WL
RECEIVE ISENT LIFT...THEN GLANCING BLOW OF PVA WED. THUS...CLDS
GOING NOWHERE...AND CHC SHRA RETURNS. SOME MIXING CUD PUNCH HOLES IN
THE CLD DECK BHD VORT LT WED-WED NGT.
TEMPS FAIRLY TEMPERATE THRU THE PD. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN MOS TEMPS
TMRW NGT-TUE...AND A SLGTLY LRGR SPREAD TUE NGT. CONSIDERING
CLDS...STAYED AWAY FM BIG DIURNAL SWINGS-- WARM SIDE OF MEAN FOR
MIN-T BUT COOLER SIDE FOR MAXT.
XTNDD...DP H5 TROF AXIS/CUTOFF LOW TO PIVOT ACRS CWFA THU-FRI. THIS
CYCLE...GDNC - SPCLY GFS - NOW TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO DVLPG CSTL
SYSTM LT THU NGT-ELY FRI MRNG. BUT EVEN THE MORE STBL ECMWF TRENDING
TWD GFS. EITHER WAY THE END RSLT WL BE SIMLR...FVRBL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN...AND SIGNALS THAT HIER ELEVS CUD RECEIVE SNW. WL INCR POPS
THU-THU NGT...AND STICK W/ MTN SNW/MIX ONCE CAA UPON US THU PM. NW
FLOW PTTN THRU SAT. WL ENHANCE UPSPL PCPN THRU THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS MONDAY
MORNING WHILE A NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER IN PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY. VSBYS WILL DROP
MAINLY TO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
THE RAIN BEGINS.
FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL THRU MUCH OF WK AS UNSTTLD CONDS ABOUND. IF
THERE WERE A BRK IT WUD COME TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT LOW CLDS/DZ LKLY TO
RTN TUE NGT.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LOW WILL BRING SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC OVERNIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...MORE SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE CAPPED WIND GUSTS MONDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT WITH FASTER WINDS LESS THAN A THOUSAND
FEET FROM THE SURFACE...ANY MIXING WOULD BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY
LATER SHIFTS.
G20KT LKLY TO CONT INTO TMRW NGT DUE TO NLY FLOW...SPCLY FOR MAIN
CHANNEL BAY BLO POOLES ISL AND FOR LWR PTMC. WL INCL BIG INLETS BUT
NOT BALT HARBOR/PAX RIVER. HIPRES RDG SHUD DECR WNDS TUE-WED...ALTHO
LOW CLDS SHUD BE PLENTIFUL AND RA A PSBLTY BY WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH...AN ONSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND TIDAL ANOMALIES RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. LATEST CBOFS AND EXTRATROPICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS FOR WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO ON THE
LOWER SIDE DUE TO THE LUNAR CYCLE APPROACHING THE FIRST QUARTER
PHASE. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO REASONS...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ530-538-542.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASORSA
NEAR TERM...LASORSA
SHORT TERM...LASORSA
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...LASORSA/HTS
MARINE...LASORSA/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LASORSA
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221823
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK EAST
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TRACK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES WILL STRENGTHEN OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN. HI CLDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVR THE GULF CST STATES...BUT WILL NOT REALLY
THICKEN TIL LTR TNGT. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME SC ALNG THE CST.
MSTLY SNY OR PRTLY SNY THIS AFTN WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N)
OVER THE RGN AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TIL LATE
EVE AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE FAR S. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY
LIGHT AT FIRST...AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM LATER TNT AND INTO MON AM. REALLY DO NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACCUMULATING TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
TRACES N TO NEAR 0.10 FAR S BY DAYBREAK MON...AS SYSTEM PUSHES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FCST SNDGS SHOW BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP TO
OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MON...AS SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER UP THE EAST
COAST BEFORE MORE OF A --RA/-DZ SCENARIO DVLPG INTO TUE OVER THE
AREA. GNRLY CALLING FOR NEAR A 0.10 OF AN INCH NW TO 0.25-0.35 FAR
S FOR STORM TOTAL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAR SE).
WITH THIS IN MIND...E/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN ON TUE.
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO NAM SOLN CALLING FOR A CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS
OF --RA/-DZ TO OCCUR...AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS DOES NOT LOOK TO
ERODE TIL TUE NIGHT/ERLY WED. BUT IF SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...COULD SEE
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CRNTLY FCSTG (ESP S/SW).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE
MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST THU NGT/FRI AS UPR LVL ENERGY
OVER THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER
THE RGN...BUT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY BY THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS LATER THIS WK).
HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING
TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS AND STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE ONSHORE NE FLOW...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES.
RAIN OVER GEORGIA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS ALABAMA WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LAV USED TO FORECAST THE
START TIMES OF THE RAIN. CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH LGT
RAIN/BR AND TO IFR A FEW HOURS LATER IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH MET
AND MAV.
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON NIGHT BUT MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE
BY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR PCPN
AND LOWER CEILINGS THU. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SRN SYSTM...HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINITY IN STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS WELL TO HOW IT WILL
INTERACT (P-GRDNT WISE) WITH 1035MB HIGH TO THE N. SO CRNT SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO XTND HEADLINES THRU
MON NITE (END OF 4TH PRD).
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTS THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH
THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015
MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. WILL CONT WITH WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
H925 WNDS VERIFY...MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTRN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST GALE WTCH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB/CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
EQUIPMENT...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221715
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1215 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL BRING SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY, IMAGES SHOWING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER BASED
ON RECENT SURFACE DATA AND RUC OUTPUT.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM SYSTEM
COMING FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST IS INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. MODEL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE BUT WILL NOT GO THAT FAR
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST WITH A DRY PERIOD LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL
THICKNESS STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LOWER FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A MIX FOR FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW BUT NEW RUN OF ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MEX MOS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KFKL/KDUJ WHERE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KMGW-KDUJ LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 221615
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN RECEDE EAST.
FAIRLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST.
THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING AND IT
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO POKE
DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTING SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS CAUSED
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS REMAINED OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
LATE THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE A BIT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, THE MASS OF CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO
RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID LEVEL REX BLOCK IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY TONIGHT. STILL, IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT MAKES
US CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR SECOND PERIOD FORECAST MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH. THE SURFACE FLOW STARTS TO
VEER JUST A LITTLE AND STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO BRING
IN SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS. CERTAINLY, MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL WEAK
RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM OF THE BLOCK WEAKENS FURTHER. GUIDANCE AND
CONTINUITY WERE ALL PRETTY CLOSE ON MINS AND WERE FOLLOWED.
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WE START TO SEE AND THEN DO SEE
INGREDIENTS FOR RAIN COME TOGETHER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM PUSHES
EVERYTHING A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE ECMWF DOES DESPITE
THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE AND H5 FORECASTS. THEY BOTH
HAVE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION, BUT THE ECMWF WANTS ALL THIS MORE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE OPEN WATER THAN THE NAM. SINCE
THE MAV POPS WERE LOWER THAN THE MET POPS, WE HAVE COME DOWN IN
BETWEEN THE TWO TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE NAM IS TOO FAR
WEST WITH THE ACTION. IN PARTING DEFERENCE TO THE LIFTING AND
WEAKENING REX BLOCK, WE START THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN INCREASE
THEM IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, WE START WITH CHANCE POPS
AND THEN INCREASE THEM. AM NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS OF INSTABILITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA, SO HAVE NOT HIT THE QPF VALUES VERY
HARD.
OUR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE
MEAN OF THE DISPARATE STAT GUIDANCE, PERHAPS LEANING A BIT ON THE
MILD SIDE WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY OR WILL START LAST
AND ON THE COOLER SIDE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. OUR MIN TEMPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT TRY TO SHRINK THE DIURNAL OSCILLATION. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
DISREGARDED THE POSSIBILITY THAT WARMER AIR RIDING OVER THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE IT DOWN.
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT NORTHEAST WIND THANKS TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RECEDING HIGH AND THE ADVANCING LOW, BUT NOT THE SAME
IN STRENGTH OR PERSISTENCE AS THE ONE WE EXPERIENCED JUST AFTER
VETERAN`S DAY.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW TRAPPED MOISTURE AND THE HINT OF A TRAILING
WAVE FOR TUESDAY, AND SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. WE TRY TO CARVE OUT SOME SORT OF BREAK ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO
VALLEY ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND
THE BETTER FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WAS WHERE THE HIGH
CLOUDS HAD BEEN GENERATED YESTERDAY. THESE MOVED OFF EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SET-UP WAS LEAVING OUR REGION IN A CLOUD-FREE
AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS AROUND
KACY AND KMIV WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY...THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM MOS
BEING MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW, CEILINGS WILL BE
LOWERED TO MARGINAL VFR IN THE AREA OF MIDNIGHT, WITH JUST A MENTION
OF SCATTERED 8 HUNDRED AND LOW MARGINAL VFR OVERCAST FOR THE LATE
NIGHT PERIOD AND TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY STAND
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SUCH A SMALL CHANCE, AND
VISIBILITIES LIKELY NOT BEING AFFECTED, THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE
KMIV, KACY, AND KILG TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY SHOULD BE THE TIME PERIOD WHEN CEILINGS ARE MARGINAL VFR TO
EVEN IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN, AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA INTO OR POSSIBLY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOITERING WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MORE FULLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY...A BETTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL FORM OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF THE NAM PRESSURE PATTERN TURNS OUT TO A BETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS, WHICH SHOWS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT, THEN WINDS AND GUSTS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS, AND NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE NAM WHICH
APPARENTLY HAS OVERCOOKED THE TROUGH ALOFT. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THAT WILL BE COMING INTO EFFECT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTH THIS EVENING, AND WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH MONDAY, WILL
BE STRETCHED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS, AND MAYBE
WINDS, COULD BE IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PART OF THIS WEEK AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL LOWS WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT OUR AREA. PRESENTLY, CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST WILL BE BROUGHT TO NEAR ADVISORY TERRITORY
THERE, AND FUTURE FORECASTERS MAY NEED TO FOLD AT LEAST LOWER
DELAWARE BAY INTO THE ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CAUSE
ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS. AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST, A FRESH ONSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING. AVIATION STORM
SURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT CREATING DRAMATIC EFFECTS, BUT IT MAY BE
UNDERDONE AS IT ONLY BRINGS ANOMALIES OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
TIDE LEVELS MAY BE MORE LIKE 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND, WITH
RECENT SEVERE BEACH EROSION, THIS MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN A FEW
AREAS. IF CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN THIS SCENARIO, SOME TYPE OF COASTAL
PRODUCT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON TODAY`S DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW,
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221522
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK EAST
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TRACK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES WILL STRENGTHEN OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN. HI CLDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVR THE GULF CST STATES...BUT WILL NOT REALLY
THICKEN TIL LTR TNGT. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME SC ALNG THE CST.
MSTLY SNY OR PRTLY SNY THIS AFTN WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N)
OVER THE RGN AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TIL LATE
EVE AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE FAR S. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY
LIGHT AT FIRST...AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM LATER TNT AND INTO MON AM. REALLY DO NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACCUMULATING TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
TRACES N TO NEAR 0.10 FAR S BY DAYBREAK MON...AS SYSTEM PUSHES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FCST SNDGS SHOW BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP TO
OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MON...AS SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER UP THE EAST
COAST BEFORE MORE OF A --RA/-DZ SCENARIO DVLPG INTO TUE OVER THE
AREA. GNRLY CALLING FOR NEAR A 0.10 OF AN INCH NW TO 0.25-0.35 FAR
S FOR STORM TOTAL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAR SE).
WITH THIS IN MIND...E/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN ON TUE.
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO NAM SOLN CALLING FOR A CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS
OF --RA/-DZ TO OCCUR...AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS DOES NOT LOOK TO
ERODE TIL TUE NIGHT/ERLY WED. BUT IF SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...COULD SEE
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CRNTLY FCSTG (ESP S/SW).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE
MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST THU NGT/FRI AS UPR LVL ENERGY
OVER THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER
THE RGN...BUT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY BY THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS LATER THIS WK).
HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING
TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU 00Z DESPITE HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT)
INCRS THRU THE DAY. SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR
00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES. BY 05Z...CIGS LWR
INTO MVFR RANGE WITH LGHT RAIN/BR DVLPNG XCPT AT SBY WHERE PCPN
HOLDS OFF THRU FCST PRD.
MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG CONT MON AND MON NITE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR SYSTEM BRINGS A
RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SRN SYSTM...HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINITY IN STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS WELL TO HOW IT WILL
INTERACT (P-GRDNT WISE) WITH 1035MB HIGH TO THE N. SO CRNT SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO XTND HEADLINES THRU
MON NITE (END OF 4TH PRD).
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTS THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH
THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015
MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. WILL CONT WITH WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
H925 WNDS VERIFY...MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTRN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST GALE WTCH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB/CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KLWX 221501
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1001 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST PAST THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WEDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WHILE ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN WILL RESULT IN A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU DECK THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HOLDING OVER
THE CENTRAL CWFA WHILE A SURFACE LOW EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNTIL LATER IN
THE NIGHTTIME. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP. TEMP
PROFILES...EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NELSON/ALBEMARLE...SHOW
ALL RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PUSHES EAST OFF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...CONTINUING ELY FLOW/CAD FOR THE AREA. EXPECT MARINE
MOISTURE/RAIN/DRIZZLE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH EAST
FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHY. DUE TO OPAQUE LOW CLOUD COVER WITH SOME RAIN...EXPECT
LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MAX-T LOW TO MID 50S...MIN-T LOW TO MID 40S
/AROUND 50F NEAR SHORE/.
TUESDAY...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MOIST
NELY/NLY FLOW CONTINUING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WELL INTO IF NOT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID WEST TO SPREAD SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...MID 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS BREAKING CAD WEDGE AND ADVECTING IN MOIST SWLY FLOW.
MORE MILD TEMPERATURES...MIN-T MID TO UPPER 40S...MAX-T MID TO UPPER
50S...PERHAPS 60F IN THE MIDDLE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...S/W ENERGY DIGS UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE SERN CONUS BY THURSDAY. ONE OR MORE COLD FRONT PASSAGES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR THE CWA IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN /TO AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS/ FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID ATLANTIC A POSSIBILITY IN
THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...ADDED RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS /I.E. OVER 500 FT/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH COOLEST
AIR OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE A LOW OVER THE NERN
CONUS BY THE WEEKEND...INDICATING UPSLOPE SNOW IN NWLY FLOW FOR THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CU DECK WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 3KFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT ALL TERMINAL SITES...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG. SCT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KCHO TOWARDS 12Z MON.
ONSHORE NELY/ELY FLOW /AROUND 15 KT/ MONDAY WITH PRECIP BEGINNING BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INTO TUESDAY. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/S/
WITH AN UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO CROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA...BEGINNING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. CERTAINLY PAY
ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TIGHTENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST. NE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
HATTERAS MONDAY BRINGS NELY FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR MONDAY /WINDS AROUND 20 KT/ FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC /WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INLAND EXTENT OF STRONGER WINDS/.
WINDS BECOME MORE NLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLY NEEDING EXTENSION. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO
BRING WLY FLOW...SOME PRECIP AND COLDER AIR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
LASORSA/LISTEMAA/BAJ
000
FXUS61 KPHI 221325
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
RECEDE EAST. FAIRLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING AND IT
WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST. A SURFACE RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO POKE
DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTING SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS CAUSED
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 8:00 AM, THE CLOUDS WERE
CONTINUING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INLAND. WE HAVE ADDED SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER TO THE FORECAST FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, THE MASS OF CLOUDS TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO
RECEDE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID LEVEL REX BLOCK IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY TONIGHT. STILL, IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT MAKES
US CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR SECOND PERIOD FORECAST MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH. THE SURFACE FLOW STARTS TO
VEER JUST A LITTLE AND STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO BRING
IN SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS. CERTAINLY, MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL WEAK
RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM OF THE BLOCK WEAKENS FURTHER. GUIDANCE AND
CONTINUITY WERE ALL PRETTY CLOSE ON MINS AND WERE FOLLOWED.
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WE START TO SEE AND THEN DO SEE
INGREDIENTS FOR RAIN COME TOGETHER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM PUSHES
EVERYTHING A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE ECMWF DOES DESPITE
THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE AND H5 FORECASTS. THEY BOTH
HAVE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION, BUT THE ECMWF WANTS ALL THIS MORE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE OPEN WATER THAN THE NAM. SINCE
THE MAV POPS WERE LOWER THAN THE MET POPS, WE HAVE COME DOWN IN
BETWEEN THE TWO TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE NAM IS TOO FAR
WEST WITH THE ACTION. IN PARTING DEFERENCE TO THE LIFTING AND
WEAKENING REX BLOCK, WE START THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN INCREASE
THEM IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, WE START WITH CHANCE POPS
AND THEN INCREASE THEM. AM NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS OF INSTABILITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA, SO HAVE NOT HIT THE QPF VALUES VERY
HARD.
OUR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE
MEAN OF THE DISPARATE STAT GUIDANCE, PERHAPS LEANING A BIT ON THE
MILD SIDE WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY OR WILL START LAST
AND ON THE COOLER SIDE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. OUR MIN TEMPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT TRY TO SHRINK THE DIURNAL OSCILLATION. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
DISREGARDED THE POSSIBILITY THAT WARMER AIR RIDING OVER THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE IT DOWN.
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT NORTHEAST WIND THANKS TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RECEDING HIGH AND THE ADVANCING LOW, BUT NOT THE SAME
IN STRENGTH OR PERSISTENCE AS THE ONE WE EXPERIENCED JUST AFTER
VETERAN`S DAY.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW TRAPPED MOISTURE AND THE HINT OF A TRAILING
WAVE FOR TUESDAY, AND SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. WE TRY TO CARVE OUT SOME SORT OF BREAK ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MORE FULLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO VALLEY
ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THE
BETTER FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WAS WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS
HAD BEEN GENERATED YESTERDAY. THESE MOVED OFF EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SET-UP WAS LEAVING OUR REGION IN A CLOUD-FREE AREA THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS AROUND KACY AND
KMIV WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY...THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM MOS
BEING MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW, CEILINGS WILL BE
LOWERED TO MARGINAL VFR IN THE AREA OF MIDNIGHT, WITH JUST A MENTION
OF SCATTERED 8 HUNDRED AND LOW MARGINAL VFR OVERCAST FOR THE LATE
NIGHT PERIOD AND TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY STAND
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SUCH A SMALL CHANCE, AND
VISIBILITIES LIKELY NOT BEING AFFECTED, THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE
KMIV, KACY, AND KILG TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY SHOULD BE THE TIME PERIOD WHEN CEILINGS ARE MARGINAL VFR TO
EVEN IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN, AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA INTO OR POSSIBLY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOITERING WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MORE FULLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY...A BETTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL FORM OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF THE NAM PRESSURE PATTERN TURNS OUT TO A BETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS, WHICH SHOWS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT, THEN WINDS AND GUSTS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS, AND NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE NAM WHICH
APPARENTLY HAS OVERCOOKED THE TROUGH ALOFT. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THAT WILL BE COMING INTO EFFECT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTH THIS EVENING, AND WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH MONDAY, WILL
BE STRETCHED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS, AND MAYBE
WINDS, COULD BE IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PART OF THIS WEEK AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL LOWS WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT OUR AREA. PRESENTLY, CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST WILL BE BROUGHT TO NEAR ADVISORY TERRITORY
THERE, AND FUTURE FORECASTERS MAY NEED TO FOLD AT LEAST LOWER
DELAWARE BAY INTO THE ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CAUSE
ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS. AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST, A FRESH ONSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING. AVIATION STORM
SURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT CREATING DRAMATIC EFFECTS, BUT IT MAY BE
UNDERDONE AS IT ONLY BRINGS ANOMALIES OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
TIDE LEVELS MAY BE MORE LIKE 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND, WITH
RECENT SEVERE BEACH EROSION, THIS MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN A FEW
AREAS. IF CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN THIS SCENARIO, SOME TYPE OF COASTAL
PRODUCT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON TODAY`S DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW,
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221119
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF CWA
THIS MORNING AS BREAKS HAVE FILLED IN. WILL REQUIRE MIXING BY MID
MORNING TO DECREASE CLOUDS . STILL EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHEARS OUT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS REGION.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST IS INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. MODEL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE BUT WILL NOT GO THAT FAR
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST WITH A DRY PERIOD LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL
THICKNESS STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LOWER FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A MIX FOR FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW BUT NEW RUN OF ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MEX MOS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KFKL/KDUJ WHERE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KMGW-KDUJ LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221106
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
606 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE ERN GRT LKS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BUT WILL NOT
REALLY THICKEN TILL LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WENT WITH M/S NRN
CWA TO P/S SOUTH. HIGHS TDY MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N)
OVER THE RGN AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TILL LATE EVE
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE FAR S. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM LATER TNT AND INTO MON AM. REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP ACCUMULATING TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TRACES N TO NEAR 0.10
FAR S BY DAYBREAK MON AS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FCST
SNDGS SHOW BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MON AS
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST BEFORE MORE OF A --RA/-DZ
SCENARIO DVLPG INTO TUE OVER THE AREA. GNRLY CALLING FOR NEAR A 0.10
OF AN INCH NW TO 0.25-0.35 FAR S FOR STORM TOTAL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FAR SE).
WITH THIS IN MIND...E/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN ON TUE.
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO NAM SOLN CALLING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS
OF --RA/-DZ TO OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS DOES NOT LOOK TO
ERODE TILL TUE NIGHT/ERLY WED BUT IF SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...COULD SEE
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CRNTLY FCSTG (ESP S/SW).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE
MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST THU NGT/FRI AS UPR LVL ENERGY
OVER THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER
THE RGN...BUT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY BY THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS LATER THIS WK).
HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING
TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU 00Z DESPITE HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT)
INCRS THRU THE DAY. SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR
00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES. BY 05Z...CIGS LWR
INTO MVFR RANGE WITH LGHT RAIN/BR DVLPNG XCPT AT SBY WHERE PCPN
HOLDS OFF THRU FCST PRD.
MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG CONT MON AND MON NITE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR SYSTEM BRINGS A
RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SRN SYSTM...HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINITY IN STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS WELL TO HOW IT WILL
INTERACT (P-GRDNT WISE) WITH 1035MB HIGH TO THE N. SO CRNT SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO XTND HEADLINES THRU
MON NITE (END OF 4TH PRD).
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTS THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH
THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015
MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. WILL CONT WITH WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
H925 WNDS VERIFY...MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTRN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST GALE WTCH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB/CCW
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221029
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
529 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF CWA
THIS MORNING AS BREAKS HAVE FILLED IN. WILL REQUIRE MIXING BY MID
MORNING TO DECREASE CLOUDS . STILL EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHEARS OUT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS REGION.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST IS INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. MODEL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE BUT WILL NOT GO THAT FAR
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST WITH A DRY PERIOD LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL
THICKNESS STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LOWER FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A MIX FOR FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW BUT NEW RUN OF ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MEX MOS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KFKL/KDUJ...WITH CIGS HOVERING
AROUND 3-4KFT OTHERWISE. TEMPO GROUPS ARE FCST FOR KFKL/KDUJ FOR CIGS
DROPPING TO LIFR-IFR LEVELS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. WITH CLEARING
AT KZZV...VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMES CENTERD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220858
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE ERN GRT LKS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BUT WILL NOT
REALLY THICKEN TILL LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WENT WITH M/S NRN
CWA TO P/S SOUTH. HIGHS TDY MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N)
OVER THE RGN AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TILL LATE EVE
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE FAR S. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM LATER TNT AND INTO MON AM. REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP ACCUMULATING TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TRACES N TO NEAR 0.10
FAR S BY DAYBREAK MON AS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FCST
SNDGS SHOW BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MON AS
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST BEFORE MORE OF A --RA/-DZ
SCENARIO DVLPG INTO TUE OVER THE AREA. GNRLY CALLING FOR NEAR A 0.10
OF AN INCH NW TO 0.25-0.35 FAR S FOR STORM TOTAL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FAR SE).
WITH THIS IN MIND...E/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN ON TUE.
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO NAM SOLN CALLING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS
OF --RA/-DZ TO OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS DOES NOT LOOK TO
ERODE TILL TUE NIGHT/ERLY WED BUT IF SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...COULD SEE
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CRNTLY FCSTG (ESP S/SW).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE
MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST THU NGT/FRI AS UPR LVL ENERGY
OVER THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER
THE RGN...BUT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY BY THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS LATER THIS WK).
HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING
TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD. XCPTN BEING SOME MVFR CNDTNS IN
PTCHY FOG (3-4SM) THRU 12Z. HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT) INCRS
THRU THE DAY SUN WITH SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR
00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES.
MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG OVRSPRD RGN SUN NITE
AND MON. MVFR CNDTNS CONT MON NITE INTO TUE ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DRIZZLE AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR
SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SRN SYSTM...HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINITY IN STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS WELL TO HOW IT WILL
INTERACT (P-GRDNT WISE) WITH 1035MB HIGH TO THE N. SO CRNT SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO XTND HEADLINES THRU
MON NITE (END OF 4TH PRD).
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTS THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH
THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015
MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. WILL CONT WITH WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
H925 WNDS VERIFY...MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTRN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST GALE WTCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTL FLOODING...
NO TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS ATTM AS ASTRONOMICAL VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...BUT IF GALE FORCE GUSTS DO DVLP...AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLDG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT
ANOMALIES BTWN 1-1.5 FEET ABV NRML.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB/CCW
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KPHI 220851
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
RECEDE EAST. FAIRLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE ARE GOING TO FOLLOW THE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO SKY
COVER TODAY AND KEEP THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OUT OF OUR AREA.
EVENTUALLY, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. SINCE WE DO SEEM
TO HAVE A MID LEVEL REX BLOCK OVER US, WE DON`T PUSH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUDS TOO MUCH.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
/ESPECIALLY AS ONE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST/, MORE IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH THAN CYCLONGENESIS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER COOL
H925 FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW AND THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH, SO OUR MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID LEVEL REX BLOCK IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY TONIGHT. STILL, IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT MAKES
US CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR SECOND PERIOD FORECAST MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH. THE SURFACE FLOW STARTS TO
VEER JUST A LITTLE AND STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO BRING
IN SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS. CERTAINLY, MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL WEAK
RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM OF THE BLOCK WEAKENS FURTHER. GUIDANCE AND
CONTINUITY WERE ALL PRETTY CLOSE ON MINS AND WERE FOLLOWED.
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WE START TO SEE AND THEN DO SEE
INGREDIENTS FOR RAIN COME TOGETHER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM PUSHES
EVERYTHING A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE ECMWF DOES DESPITE
THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE AND H5 FORECASTS. THEY BOTH
HAVE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION, BUT THE ECMWF WANTS ALL THIS MORE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE OPEN WATER THAN THE NAM. SINCE
THE MAV POPS WERE LOWER THAN THE MET POPS, WE HAVE COME DOWN IN
BETWEEN THE TWO TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE NAM IS TOO FAR
WEST WITH THE ACTION. IN PARTING DEFERENCE TO THE LIFTING AND
WEAKENING REX BLOCK, WE START THE DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN INCREASE
THEM IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, WE START WITH CHANCE POPS
AND THEN INCREASE THEM. AM NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS OF INSTABILITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA, SO HAVE NOT HIT THE QPF VALUES VERY
HARD.
OUR MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE
MEAN OF THE DISPARATE STAT GUIDANCE, PERHAPS LEANING A BIT ON THE
MILD SIDE WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY OR WILL START LAST
AND ON THE COOLER SIDE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. OUR MIN TEMPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT TRY TO SHRINK THE DIURNAL OSCILLATION. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
DISREGARDED THE POSSIBILITY THAT WARMER AIR RIDING OVER THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE IT DOWN.
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT NORTHEAST WIND THANKS TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RECEDING HIGH AND THE ADVANCING LOW, BUT NOT THE SAME
IN STRENGTH OR PERSISTENCE AS THE ONE WE EXPERIENCED JUST AFTER
VETERAN`S DAY.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW TRAPPED MOISTURE AND THE HINT OF A TRAILING
WAVE FOR TUESDAY, AND SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. WE TRY TO CARVE OUT SOME SORT OF BREAK ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MORE FULLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO VALLEY
ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THE
BETTER FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WAS WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS
HAD BEEN GENERATED YESTERDAY. THESE MOVED OFF EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SET-UP WAS LEAVING OUR REGION IN A CLOUD-FREE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD MOSTLY CONTINUE TODAY. ONLY KRDG HAD A
TEMPO GROUP IN ITS TAF FOR LIGHT FOG FOR THE HOURS NEAR SUNRISE
IN VIEW OF SATURDAY MORNING/S BRIEF FORAY DOWN TO 2 MILES...AND ALSO
IN VIEW OF MOS GUIDANCE AROUND 12Z.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY...THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM MOS
BEING MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW, CEILINGS WILL BE
LOWERED TO MARGINAL VFR IN THE AREA OF MIDNIGHT, WITH JUST A MENTION
OF SCATTERED 8 HUNDRED AND LOW MARGINAL VFR OVERCAST FOR THE LATE
NIGHT PERIOD AND TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY STAND
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SUCH A SMALL CHANCE, AND
VISIBILITIES LIKELY NOT BEING AFFECTED, THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE
KMIV, KACY, AND KILG TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY SHOULD BE THE TIME PERIOD WHEN CEILINGS ARE MARGINAL VFR TO
EVEN IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN, AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA INTO OR POSSIBLY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOITERING WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MORE FULLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
THIS MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY...A BETTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL FORM OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. IF THE NAM PRESSURE PATTERN TURNS OUT TO A BETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS, WHICH SHOWS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG
WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT, THEN WINDS AND GUSTS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TERRITORY. THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS, AND NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE NAM WHICH
APPARENTLY HAS OVERCOOKED THE TROUGH ALOFT. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THAT WILL BE COMING INTO EFFECT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTH THIS EVENING, AND WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH MONDAY, WILL
BE STRETCHED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS, AND MAYBE
WINDS, COULD BE IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PART OF THIS WEEK AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL LOWS WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT OUR AREA. PRESENTLY, CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST WILL BE BROUGHT TO NEAR ADVISORY TERRITORY
THERE, AND FUTURE FORECASTERS MAY NEED TO FOLD AT LEAST LOWER
DELAWARE BAY INTO THE ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CAUSE
ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS. AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST, A FRESH ONSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING. AVIATION STORM
SURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT CREATING DRAMATIC EFFECTS, BUT IT MAY BE
UNDERDONE AS IT ONLY BRINGS ANOMALIES OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
TIDE LEVELS MAY BE MORE LIKE 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND, WITH
RECENT SEVERE BEACH EROSION, THIS MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN A FEW
AREAS. IF CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN THIS SCENARIO, SOME TYPE OF COASTAL
PRODUCT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON TODAY`S DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW,
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 220829
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST PAST THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO UPPER LOWS NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING...ONE OVER
NORTHEAST PA AND THE SECOND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. UPPER
LOW OVER PA WILL DROP SLIGHTLY SOUTH TODAY...ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THE MISSISSIPPI LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND FILL.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD
STRONG ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE
GULF COAST.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
MOISTURE GETS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. AREAS ALONG
THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH THE
PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY CLOUDING OVER THE EARLIEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HOLDING OVER
THE CENTRAL CWFA WHILE A SURFACE LOW EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNTIL LATER IN
THE NIGHTTIME. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP. TEMP
PROFILES...EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NELSON/ALBEMARLE...SHOW
ALL RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PUSHES EAST OFF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...CONTINUING ELY FLOW/CAD FOR THE AREA. EXPECT MARINE
MOISTURE/RAIN/DRIZZLE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH EAST
FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHY. DUE TO OPAQUE LOW CLOUD COVER WITH SOME RAIN...EXPECT
LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MAX-T LOW TO MID 50S...MIN-T LOW TO MID 40S
/AROUND 50F NEAR SHORE/.
TUESDAY...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MOIST
NELY/NLY FLOW CONTINUING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WELL INTO IF NOT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID WEST TO SPREAD SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...MID 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS BREAKING CAD WEDGE AND ADVECTING IN MOIST SWLY FLOW.
MORE MILD TEMPERATURES...MIN-T MID TO UPPER 40S...MAX-T MID TO UPPER
50S...PERHAPS 60F IN THE MIDDLE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...S/W ENERGY DIGS UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE SERN CONUS BY THURSDAY. ONE OR MORE COLD FRONT PASSAGES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR THE CWA IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN /TO AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS/ FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID ATLANTIC A POSSIBILITY IN
THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...ADDED RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS /I.E. OVER 500 FT/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH COOLEST
AIR OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE A LOW OVER THE NERN
CONUS BY THE WEEKEND...INDICATING UPSLOPE SNOW IN NWLY FLOW FOR THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS LIKELY JUST BEFORE AND RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG. SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KCHO TOWARDS 12Z MON.
ONSHORE NELY/ELY FLOW /AROUND 15 KT/ MONDAY WITH PRECIP BEGINNING BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INTO TUESDAY. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/S/
WITH AN UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO CROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA...BEGINNING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. CERTAINLY PAY
ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TIGHTENING TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
HATTERAS MONDAY BRINGS NELY FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR MONDAY /WINDS AROUND 20 KT/ FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC /WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INLAND EXTENT OF STRONGER WINDS/.
WINDS BECOME MORE NLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLY NEEDING EXTENSION. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO
BRING WLY FLOW...SOME PRECIP AND COLDER AIR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
LISTEMAA/BAJ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220820
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEGINNING TO
BREAK ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK. AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY CLOUDS WILL BREAK ACROSS CWA WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES BEING
THE LAST TO CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHEARS OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES PUSHING MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST IS INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. MODEL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE BUT WILL NOT GO THAT FAR
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST WITH A DRY PERIOD LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL
THICKNESS STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LOWER FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A MIX FOR FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW BUT NEW RUN OF ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MEX MOS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KFKL/KDUJ...WITH CIGS HOVERING
AROUND 3-4KFT OTHERWISE. TEMPO GROUPS ARE FCST FOR KFKL/KDUJ FOR CIGS
DROPPING TO LIFR-IFR LEVELS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. WITH CLEARING
AT KZZV...VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMES CENTERD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220552
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE COMING EASTWARD FROM
THE ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACRE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MILDER THAN NORMALS USING CLOSE TO
RECENT BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES ALONG WITH SREF MODEL
OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES CAN BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST...THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH WILL COME TO AN END.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EACH NIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KFKL/KDUJ...WITH CIGS HOVERING
AROUND 3-4KFT OTHERWISE. TEMPO GROUPS ARE FCST FOR KFKL/KDUJ FOR CIGS
DROPPING TO LIFR-IFR LEVELS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. WITH CLEARING
AT KZZV...VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMES CENTERD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220525
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1225 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.
RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.
CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD. XCPTN BEING SOME MVFR CNDTNS IN
PTCHY FOG (3-4SM) THRU 12Z. HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT) INCRS
THRU THE DAY SUN WITH SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR
00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES.
MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG OVRSPRD RGN SUN NITE
AND MON. MVFR CNDTNS CONT MON NITE INTO TUE ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DRIZZLE AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR
SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS THRU ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY 10-15 KT
ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ON
SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NE...AND LOW PRS
ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT WEEK.
WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY ON S AND FOR
THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).
NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.
&&
.TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...TIDAL FLOODING NOT LOOKING TO BE MAJOR CONCERN
AS ASTRONOMICAL VALES ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT IF STRONGER WINDS PREVAIL
AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. STILL...THIS
IS NOT A REAL SLOW SYSTEM (LIKE LAST WEEK) SO THE ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY
ONLY BUILD TO 1-1.5 FEET.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MPR/JEF
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220424 AAB
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1124 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.
RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.
CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES GENLY CLR TONIGHT WITH A FEW STRATOCU AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE NIGHT WITH CHC OF PTCHY
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY ON SUN WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRES SYS TO THE
SOUTH CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT
WX SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON
THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).
NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...LKB/JEF
EQUIPMENT...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 220410
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1110 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CANADA`S MARITIME
PROVINCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME MIXING WAS OCCURRING OVER SOME OF THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS,
AND THAT WAS KEEPING SOME TEMPERATURES UP JUST A BIT LATE IN THE
EVENING. WE STILL EXPECT ENOUGH DECOUPLING TO ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
REACH THEIR FORECAST MINIMUMS, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS WILL KEEP ENOUGH OF A BREEZE GOING OVERNIGHT TO WARRANT A
RAISING OF TEMPERATURES THERE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVED VALUES AND MINIMUMS WERE ONLY TWEAKED.
THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST WERE ERODING AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. GENERALLY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
MID 40S RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH INFLUENCING OUR REGION, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR SUNDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
THE 12 UTC NAM AND THE 12 UTC GFS BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. THE 12 UTC NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW THAN THE 12 UTC GFS
AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF. WE WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION
FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARED AWAY EARLIER, AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, THEN BEGIN
SLACKING ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN FACT, AN ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR BASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION IN CASE THIS COMES TO FRUITION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD HELP
TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. TIDE
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MORE THAN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN ORDER FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CURRENTLY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET IN TIDAL ANOMALIES, SO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING COULD INCREASE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DELISI/EBERWINE/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/STAUBER/
MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220341
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE COMING EASTWARD FROM
THE ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACRE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MILDER THAN NORMALS USING CLOSE TO
RECENT BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES ALONG WITH SREF MODEL
OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES CAN BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST...THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH WILL COME TO AN END.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EACH NIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE 3KFT MARK AT ALL TAF
SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY
SUNSET...WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR. MVFR CIGS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT FAVORED
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220245
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.
RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.
CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES GENLY CLR TONIGHT WITH A FEW STRATOCU AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE NIGHT WITH CHC OF PTCHY
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY ON SUN WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRES SYS TO THE
SOUTH CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT
WX SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON
THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).
NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...LKB/JEF
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220135
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
835 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.
OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.
RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.
CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).
NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KPHI 220111
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
811 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CANADA`S MARITIME
PROVINCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 8:00 PM, TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S IN INTER SNJ(PINE BARRENS). CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED SOUTHEAST TO THE POCONOS AND ABE AIRPORT BUT SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING IN A FEW HOURS WITH WAA AT 80H. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
VERY THIN W-E BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS DRYING OUT.
MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY FROM 2,500 TO 4,5000 BASED CU/SC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH INFLUENCING OUR REGION, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR SUNDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
THE 12 UTC NAM AND THE 12 UTC GFS BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. THE 12 UTC NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW THAN THE 12 UTC GFS
AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF. WE WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION
FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SOME OF THE STRATOCU FROM THE POCONOS WAS SHOWING IT WAS SPREADING
INTO AREAS NEAR ABE. THEREFORE, SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 25 HND FT
WILL BE FCST THERE WITH A TEMPO BKN GROUP UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THESE CLOUDS GETTING INTO RDG, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE, SKIES HAVE CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THE STRATOCU NORTH SHOULD BE GONE BY MORNING, SO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, THEN BEGIN
SLACKING ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN FACT, AN ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR BASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION IN CASE THIS COMES TO FRUITION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD HELP
TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. TIDE
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MORE THAN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN ORDER FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CURRENTLY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET IN TIDAL ANOMALIES, SO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING COULD INCREASE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/STAUBER
MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 220015 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
715 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BKN-OVC CLD CVRG RMNS SLOW TO ERODE OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF FCST
AREA. HAVE RESTRUCTURED CLD GRIDS TNGT AND INTRODUCED FOG INTO WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...FCST GENLY IN GOOD SHAPE. TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SPLIT JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
IS MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TRACKS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER PA SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY HANG
ON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH
NOT TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LOW-LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GDNC TRENDING MUCH SLOER...HOLDING OFF PCPN SUN NGT AS STRONG HIPRES
OVR NEW ENGLND RDGS DWN ATLC CST. EMPHASIS OF RAFL NOW MON-MON
NGT...AS A WK WV IN THE SRN STREAM SPILLS MSTR NWD...AND EVENTUALLY
SPAWNS CSTL LOW. WAA ON SRN DOORSTEP SUNSET SUN...AND CLDS WL
THICKEN/LWR THRU EVE. WL BRING POPS INTO GRIDS LT SUN EVE/SUN
OVNGT...SPCLY SRN CNTYS WHICH IS NEARER TRIGGERING MECHANISM.
BY MON-MON NGT...ENERGY WL TRANSFER OFF CST. PCPN WL BE IN RESPONSE
TO DVLPG LOW...MOSTLY IN DEFORMATION ZN. HV LINGERED A CHC INTO
TUE...SPCLY NRN CNTYS. HWVR...CAA SHUD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEEP
MSTR. BUT...FLOW WONT GO WLY...AND AS SUCH AM AFRAID WL HOLD ONTO A
PRTL MARINE DECK INTO MIDWK. PER XTNDD DSCN 2 PARAGRAPHS DWN...FCST
AT THIS PT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...AND GRIDDED DETAILS BECOME
BROADER IN SCOPE.
PER TEMPS...HV LMTD DIURNAL SWINGS IN RESPONSE TO CLDCVR NXT CPL
DAYS...GOING ON HIGH SIDE FOR MIN-T...AND LOW END FOR MAXT. DID
SHADE DWNWD MON NGT SINCE CWFA WL BE AFFECTED BY CAA BY THEN.
WE/VE ENTERED THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN SPLIT FLOW WRECKS HAVOC ON MDL
SOLNS. IT APPEARS WE/RE ENTERING SUCH A PD. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES
REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY DIGGING INTO TROF ACRS THE PLAINS...LKLY
CUTTING OFF AN UPR LOW...AND THEN TRAVERSING THE CONUS AS ADDTL
PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY DIVE INTO THE TROF AXIS. GFS AND GGEM DEEPER
AND QUICKER W/ H5 LOW...WHICH IS ALMOST CONTRADICTORY. WL TAKE A
HIGHLY ENSEMBLED APPROACH...LEANING ON STEADIER ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
WL HV AN UPR TROF IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD /PRBLY CNTRD OVR THE GRTLKS/
THIS THXGVG...WHICH MEANS THE XTNDD FCST WL START OUT WARM...THEN HV
A CFP COOL CWFA OFF. THERE ALSO WL BE THE SUPPORT FOR PCPN-- RA AT
1ST...BUT HGTS/TKNSS/H8 TEMPS WUD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNW...SPCLY
FOR THE MTNS BY THU NGT..WHICH MAY CONT INTO FRI ACRS WRN UPSLP
AREAS. POP FCST LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM...BUT WL CONT TO BE MONITORED
DUE TO POTL TRVL IMPACTS. THE WRN UPSLP ASPECT TO THE FCST THE MOST
SOLID.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT VRB-NLY WINDS XPCD TNGT. CIGS AROUND 5 KFT MAKING SLOW WWD
PROGRESS. THESE CLDS XPCD TO LINGER THRU THIS EVE AT KMRB/KIAD BUT
WILL ERODE LATE THIS EVE. CLDS MAY BE REPLACED BY PATCHY MVFR FOG
AS RGN WILL BE FOUND IN SWRN QUADRANT OF BROAD SFC HIPRES CNTRD IN
NEW ENGLAND. INCRG CLDS SUN AFTN AS ENELY FETCH BGNS TO TRANSPORT
ATLC MSTR WWD.
VFR SUN EVE...AS CLDS THICKEN/LWR FM S-N. FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL
OVNGT AS RA SPREADS IN. RESTRICTIONS PREVALENT MON-MON NGT AS LOPRES
PASSES E OF TERMINALS.
SHUD BE A BREAK TUE-WED...THO MARINE LYR CUD POTENTIALLY HOLD ON.
THEN...ANTHR STORM SYSTEM MVS IN WED NGT-THU...FLLWD BY COLD AIR BY
END OF WK.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC HIPRES BUILDS ACRS NEW ENGLAND TNGT. NO HAZARDS XPCD THRU SUN
AS WINDS VEER SLGTLY FROM NLY TO NELY. SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 10 KT
XPCD SUN AMID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WK WV OF LOPRES TRACKS ACRS SERN CONUS SUN NGT...AND
TRANSFERS/DEEPENS OFF DELMARVA MON-MON NGT. WNDS INCR DURING THIS
PD...W/ SCA CONDS PSBL.
IN WAKE OF THIS LOW AND IN ADVC OF NXT STORM SYSTM...N WNDS VEER
ELY. MORE PCPN WL SPREAD IN MIDWK...BUT SCA NOT XPCTD ATTM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISCUSSION...LASORSA/HTS
000
FXUS61 KPHI 212333
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CANADA`S MARITIME
PROVINCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 3:00 PM, TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THERE WERE SOME READINGS IN THE 40S UP IN THE POCONOS. THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR THICK CIRRUS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE WAS ALSO A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS
POKING DOWN OVER THE POCONO REGION.
THE CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
COAST. MEANWHILE, SOME OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE POCONO REGION INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH INFLUENCING OUR REGION, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR SUNDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
THE 12 UTC NAM AND THE 12 UTC GFS BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. THE 12 UTC NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW THAN THE 12 UTC GFS
AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF. WE WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION
FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SOME OF THE STRATOCU FROM THE POCONOS WAS SHOWING IT WAS SPREADING
INTO AREAS NEAR ABE. THEREFORE, SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 25 HND FT
WILL BE FCST THERE WITH A TEMPO BKN GROUP UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THESE CLOUDS GETTING INTO RDG, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE, SKIES HAVE CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THE STRATOCU NORTH SHOULD BE GONE BY MORNING, SO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, THEN BEGIN
SLACKING ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN FACT, AN ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR BASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION IN CASE THIS COMES TO FRUITION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD HELP
TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. TIDE
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MORE THAN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN ORDER FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CURRENTLY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET IN TIDAL ANOMALIES, SO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING COULD INCREASE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/STAUBER
MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212151
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HI PRES OVR THE ERN GRT LKS WILL SLIDE E TWD NRN NEW ENGLAND TNGT
INTO SUN MORNG. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS
MAINTAINING A MSTLY CLR OR PRTL CLDY SKY. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE ALL AREAS THE FIRST PART OF SUN...THEN
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM S TO N THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO
SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL
BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES
TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.
RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.
CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).
NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.
&&
TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...TIDAL FLOODING NOT LOOKING TO BE MAJOR
CONCERN AS ASTRONOMICAL VALES ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT IF STRONGER
WINDS PREVAIL AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY. STILL...THIS IS NOT A REAL SLOW SYSTEM (LIKE LAST WEEK) SO
THE ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY ONLY BUILD TO 1-1.5 FEET.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MTG
NEAR TERM...MTG
SHORT TERM...MTG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...LKB
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212120
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HI PRES OVR THE ERN GRT LKS WILL SLIDE E TWD NRN NEW ENGLAND TNGT
INTO SUN MORNG. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS
MAINTAINING A MSTLY CLR OR PRTL CLDY SKY. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE ALL AREAS THE FIRST PART OF SUN...THEN
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM S TO N THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO
SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL
BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES
TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.
RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.
CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212041
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
341 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
BRING SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES
BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE CLOUDS ERODING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL HYDROLAPSE /VERTICAL HUMIDITY
PROFILE/ SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...SUBSEQUENT
NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO FOG PATCHES BY EARLY
MORNING.
DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS AND HENCE
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MILDER THAN NORMALS USING CLOSE TO
RECENT BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES ALONG WITH SREF MODEL
OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES CAN BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST...THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH WILL COME TO AN END.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EACH NIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE 3KFT MARK AT ALL TAF
SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY
SUNSET...WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR. MVFR CIGS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT FAVORED
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 212030
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CANADA`S MARITIME
PROVINCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 3:00 PM, TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THERE WERE SOME READINGS IN THE 40S UP IN THE POCONOS. THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR THICK CIRRUS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE WAS ALSO A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS
POKING DOWN OVER THE POCONO REGION.
THE CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
COAST. MEANWHILE, SOME OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE POCONO REGION INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH INFLUENCING OUR REGION, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR SUNDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
THE 12 UTC NAM AND THE 12 UTC GFS BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. THE 12 UTC NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW THAN THE 12 UTC GFS
AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF. WE WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION
FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
BUT THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, AND PROVIDE A
MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEVER MADE IT TO OUR ARA, AND WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH AT THIS TIME EITHER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH, THEN
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. THE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE GUSTY IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG TOWARD MORNING IN SOME ISOLATED
AREAS, BUT WE ONLY HAVE IT IN THE RDG TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, THEN BEGIN
SLACKING ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN FACT, AN ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR BASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION IN CASE THIS COMES TO FRUITION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD HELP
TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. TIDE
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MORE THAN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN ORDER FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CURRENTLY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET IN TIDAL ANOMALIES, SO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING COULD INCREASE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION/MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KLWX 211943
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SPLIT JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
IS MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TRACKS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER PA SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY HANG
ON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH
NOT TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LOW-LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GDNC TRENDING MUCH SLOER...HOLDING OFF PCPN SUN NGT AS STRONG HIPRES
OVR NEW ENGLND RDGS DWN ATLC CST. EMPHASIS OF RAFL NOW MON-MON
NGT...AS A WK WV IN THE SRN STREAM SPILLS MSTR NWD...AND EVENTUALLY
SPAWNS CSTL LOW. WAA ON SRN DOORSTEP SUNSET SUN...AND CLDS WL
THICKEN/LWR THRU EVE. WL BRING POPS INTO GRIDS LT SUN EVE/SUN
OVNGT...SPCLY SRN CNTYS WHICH IS NEARER TRIGGERING MECHANISM.
BY MON-MON NGT...ENERGY WL TRANSFER OFF CST. PCPN WL BE IN RESPONSE
TO DVLPG LOW...MOSTLY IN DEFORMATION ZN. HV LINGERED A CHC INTO
TUE...SPCLY NRN CNTYS. HWVR...CAA SHUD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEEP
MSTR. BUT...FLOW WONT GO WLY...AND AS SUCH AM AFRAID WL HOLD ONTO A
PRTL MARINE DECK INTO MIDWK. PER XTNDD DSCN 2 PARAGRAPHS DWN...FCST
AT THIS PT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...AND GRIDDED DETAILS BECOME
BROADER IN SCOPE.
PER TEMPS...HV LMTD DIURNAL SWINGS IN RESPONSE TO CLDCVR NXT CPL
DAYS...GOING ON HIGH SIDE FOR MIN-T...AND LOW END FOR MAXT. DID
SHADE DWNWD MON NGT SINCE CWFA WL BE AFFECTED BY CAA BY THEN.
WE/VE ENTERED THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN SPLIT FLOW WRECKS HAVOC ON MDL
SOLNS. IT APPEARS WE/RE ENTERING SUCH A PD. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES
REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY DIGGING INTO TROF ACRS THE PLAINS...LKLY
CUTTING OFF AN UPR LOW...AND THEN TRAVERSING THE CONUS AS ADDTL
PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY DIVE INTO THE TROF AXIS. GFS AND GGEM DEEPER
AND QUICKER W/ H5 LOW...WHICH IS ALMOST CONTRADICTORY. WL TAKE A
HIGHLY ENSEMBLED APPROACH...LEANING ON STEADIER ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
WL HV AN UPR TROF IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD /PRBLY CNTRD OVR THE GRTLKS/
THIS THXGVG...WHICH MEANS THE XTNDD FCST WL START OUT WARM...THEN HV
A CFP COOL CWFA OFF. THERE ALSO WL BE THE SUPPORT FOR PCPN-- RA AT
1ST...BUT HGTS/TKNSS/H8 TEMPS WUD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNW...SPCLY
FOR THE MTNS BY THU NGT..WHICH MAY CONT INTO FRI ACRS WRN UPSLP
AREAS. POP FCST LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM...BUT WL CONT TO BE MONITORED
DUE TO POTL TRVL IMPACTS. THE WRN UPSLP ASPECT TO THE FCST THE MOST
SOLID.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY BR MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS SUNDAY WITH THE DIRECTIONS VEERING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.
VFR SUN EVE...AS CLDS THICKEN/LWR FM S-N. FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL
OVNGT AS RA SPREADS IN. RESTRICTIONS PREVALENT MON-MON NGT AS LOPRES
PASSES E OF TERMINALS.
SHUD BE A BREAK TUE-WED...THO MARINE LYR CUD POTENTIALLY HOLD ON.
THEN...ANTHR STORM SYSTEM MVS IN WED NGT-THU...FLLWD BY COLD AIR BY
END OF WK.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TOWARD THE NORTH
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WK WV OF LOPRES TRACKS ACRS SERN CONUS SUN NGT...AND
TRANSFERS/DEEPENS OFF DELMARVA MON-MON NGT. WNDS INCR DURING THIS
PD...W/ SCA CONDS PSBL.
IN WAKE OF THIS LOW AND IN ADVC OF NXT STORM SYSTM...N WNDS VEER
ELY. MORE PCPN WL SPREAD IN MIDWK...BUT SCA NOT XPCTD ATTM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211754
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1254 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES CNTRD TO OUR N WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS AFTN...AS NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVES ALONG THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. N/NE WINDS OVR THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. HI CLDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACRS THE CWA...DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SYSTEM. SO...GENERALLY A PRTLY SNY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT
AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF
MAIN SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211533
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES CNTRD TO OUR N WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS AFTN...AS NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVES ALONG THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. N/NE WINDS OVR THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. HI CLDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACRS THE CWA...DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SYSTEM. SO...GENERALLY A PRTLY SNY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT
AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF
MAIN SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD DESPITE WDSPRD CI OVRSPRDG RGN FROM
SW. LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 211505
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT 10:00 AM, HIGH CLOUDS COVERED OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CIRRUS
OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED TO THIN A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ENTIRE CLOUD SHIELD DRIFTS TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MAY NUDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVER SOME OF
OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ALL
IN ALL, A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN OUR
REGION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY
A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY. SO, OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG
FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT
BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME
BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH
OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY. OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK
TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO
FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY); LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF)
DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS WELL. ONCE IT STARTS,
WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.
OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KLWX 211450
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE JETSTREAM REMAINS SPLIT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
LOCATED OVER TEXAS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGH
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRATO CU DECK HAS
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE DRY SLOT WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS LOCATED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRATO CU DECK WILL HANG ON THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO...IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BKN STRATO CU DECK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. THE
STRATO CU DECK WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING WITH PATCHY BR.
ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LISTEMAA/LASORSA/BAJ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211132
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN TODAY AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
AT KPIT...KBVI...AND KHLG WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AT
KDUJ AND KFKL LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH CIGS BREAKING AT
KMGW/KZZV THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTHWARD...CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
3-4KFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDUJ AND
KFKL THIS AFTN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211130
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
630 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SOME VSBYS WILL FALL TO UNDER 2 MILES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TDY AS
NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY
CALL FOR P/C-P/S SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD DESPITE WDSPRD CI OVRSPRDG RGN FROM
SW. LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 211051
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUICK UPDATE FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS DECK
AROUND 4 KFT HAS MADE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND BUMP UP THE SKY COVER BETWEEN THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA
AND THE MASON DIXON LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SET
UP ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION...AND BOTH INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. THE NAM DEVELOPS A CUT
OFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHEAR AXIS. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING PRECIP...JUST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.
250MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO HANG AROUND MOST OF
TODAY...AT TIMES BECOMING OPAQUE. HAVE OPTED TO GO PARTLY SUNNY FOR
TODAY...RATHER THAN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE NW CWFA
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.
THICKER CIRRUS COULD LEND TO TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MAV MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING RATHER WELL...HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS AND BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP
SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CIGS WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.
SOME LOWER STRATUS HAS SETTLED ACROSS KMRB...IN THE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW...BUT CIGS ARE AROUND 4 KFT. EXPECT THE CIRRUS CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT TIMES BKN. THE LOWER STRATUS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT
CIGS BLO 3 KFT ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THOUGHT TONIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210902 CCA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
WANT TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. WE`VE ACKNOWLEDGED THIS BY
CARRYING SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THAN
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS MIXING TO H925 AND WITH THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE MAV AND MET
STAT GUIDANCE, AND SO WE WENT THAT WAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY MODEST
NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROAHCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING
SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS FAILING
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS MORNING ON OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, AND SHOULD LESSEN
SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT
LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER,
THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER
SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY.
OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH
IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY);
LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF) DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS
WELL. ONCE IT STARTS, WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210856
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SOME VSBYS WILL FALL TO UNDER 2 MILES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TDY AS
NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY
CALL FOR P/C-P/S SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD XCPT FOR SOME MVFR CNDTNS THRU 12Z
IN PTCHY FOG. WENT AHEAD WITH A BKN250 FCST VICE SKC AS SAT LOOP
ALRDY INDCTG PLNTY OF CI APPRCHG FROM SW.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS...SO WILL END SCA WITH
AM PACKAGE. CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS
DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES FCSTD MON AM WITH SCND HIGHEST TIDE TUE AM. CRNT FCST
HAS TIDES AT 1 FT OR LESS ABV NRML DRNG THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THESE NMBRS NRML INCRS THE CLOSER WE GET TO
THE EVENT. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TIDAL DEPARTURES APPRCH THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ERLY NXT WEEK IF CRNT TRACK HOLD TRUE.
STAY TUNED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210854
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
WANT TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. WE`VE ACKNOWLEDGED THIS BY
CARRYING SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THAN
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS MIXING TO H925 AND WITH THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE MAV AND MET
STAT GUIDANCE, AND SO WE WENT THAT WAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY MODEST
NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROAHCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING
SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS FAILING
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS MORNING ON OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, AND SHOULD LESSEN
SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT
LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER,
THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER
SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY.
OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH
IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY);
LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF) DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS
WELL. ONCE IT STARTS, WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 210842
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SET
UP ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION...AND BOTH INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. THE NAM DEVELOPS A CUT
OFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHEAR AXIS. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING PRECIP...JUST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.
250MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO HANG AROUND MOST OF
TODAY...AT TIMES BECOMING OPAQUE. HAVE OPTED TO GO PARTLY SUNNY FOR
TODAY...RATHER THAN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE NW CWFA
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.
THICKER CIRRUS COULD LEND TO TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MAV MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING RATHER WELL...HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS AND BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP
SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CIGS WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.
SOME LOWER STRATUS HAS SETTLED ACROSS KMRB...IN THE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW...BUT CIGS ARE AROUND 4 KFT. EXPECT THE CIRRUS CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT TIMES BKN. THE LOWER STRATUS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT
CIGS BLO 3 KFT ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THOUGHT TONIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LISTEMAA/BAJ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210723
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
223 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210544
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS
TO COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR PERHAPS SOME
SUNNY BREAKS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT BASED ON CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210512
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1212 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTS THIS EVENING IN ASSN WITH
MID/UPPER LVL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE GETTING SHOVED DOWNSTREAM...RIDING SW FLOW ALOFT
ALREADY PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AS
NOTED ON EARLY EVENING IR/RAMSDIS WV IMAGERY. WL LKLY SEE THESE
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
CLR CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
CIRRUS ACROSS THE WESTERN...AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL CWA
OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED TEMPS...AND STILL SHUD SEE
GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. ERY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO THE
NR 40...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME L30S WELL NORTH/NW OF RIC.
SATURDAY...
SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMING FOR SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE THICKEN CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN W/SW PARTS OF THE CWA. SEASONABLE HIGHS IN
THE L60S FOR MOST ZONES...UPR 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS GENERALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
STRONG OF A SYSTEM. THE NAM/CANADIAN SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
OVERRUNNING PCPN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND BRINGING SOME LOW POPS IN LATE SUNDAY BUT FOCUSING POPS AND
QPF ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HESITANT TO BE TOO SLOW AS
OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN FASTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MET ON SUNDAY FOR
HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DID LEAN A LITTLE MILDER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND LINGERING RAIN. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM ON MONDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE GFS SOLUTION...IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THEY
WOULD BE WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...SO EVOLUTION OF
NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FCST MON NIGHT AS NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HIGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AT LEAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLC/SE COAST (OUTLIER GFS SOLN GNLY DISREGARDED). FOR
TUE/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST (ECMWF) OR
WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC
FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER
WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD XCPT FOR SOME MVFR CNDTNS THRU 12Z
IN PTCHY FOG. WENT AHEAD WITH A BKN250 FCST VICE SKC AS SAT LOOP
ALRDY INDCTG PLNTY OF CI APPRCHG FROM SW.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
CONT SCA FOR NC CSTL WTRS FROM VA/NC BORDER TO CURR BCH LGT TIL 6
AM SAT AS NE WNDS KEEPS SEAS ARND 5 FT.
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NE...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM
THE S ON SUN. GFS SOLN LOOKS TOO FAST AND HAVE DISREGARDED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IT DEPICTS ON MONDAY (KEEPING WINDS NE ON
MON/MON NGT PER NAM/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS). THIS CONSENSUS SOLN
PLACES THE SFC HIGH IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCA CONDITIONS
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY (OVER NEW ENGLAND) AND HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO PREV FCST (HIGHER THAN THE MODELS FOR WIND SPEEDS). FOR
SEAS...GNLY WENT 5-6 FT FOR NOW ON THE COAST (GFS SOLN YIELDS A
WAVEWATCH FCST FOR ONLY 4-5 FT SOUTH AND 6-7 FT NORTH).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MPR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210401
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1101 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS,
ALTHOUGH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE WARMER WATER WILL TEMPER
THIS SOME. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS
INTO THE 30S SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP WE
RAISED THEM A LITTLE. MIN TEMPS ALSO WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DELISI/MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210231 AAB
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTS THIS EVENING IN ASSN WITH
MID/UPPER LVL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE GETTING SHOVED DOWNSTREAM...RIDING SW FLOW ALOFT
ALREADY PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AS
NOTED ON EARLY EVENING IR/RAMSDIS WV IMAGERY. WL LKLY SEE THESE
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
CLR CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
CIRRUS ACROSS THE WESTERN...AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL CWA
OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED TEMPS...AND STILL SHUD SEE
GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. ERY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO THE
NR 40...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME L30S WELL NORTH/NW OF RIC.
SATURDAY...
SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMING FOR SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE THICKEN CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN W/SW PARTS OF THE CWA. SEASONABLE HIGHS IN
THE L60S FOR MOST ZONES...UPR 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS GENERALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
STRONG OF A SYSTEM. THE NAM/CANADIAN SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
OVERRUNNING PCPN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND BRINGING SOME LOW POPS IN LATE SUNDAY BUT FOCUSING POPS AND
QPF ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HESITANT TO BE TOO SLOW AS
OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN FASTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MET ON SUNDAY FOR
HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DID LEAN A LITTLE MILDER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND LINGERING RAIN. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM ON MONDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE GFS SOLUTION...IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THEY
WOULD BE WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...SO EVOLUTION OF
NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FCST MON NIGHT AS NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HIGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AT LEAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLC/SE COAST (OUTLIER GFS SOLN GNLY DISREGARDED). FOR
TUE/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST (ECMWF) OR
WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC
FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER
WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GENERALLY COVER THE TAF SITES. WNDS WILL BE
MOSTLY N-NE AND LIGHT. SOME SHALLOW GRND FOG PSBL ACROSS THE
REGION BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. VFR CONDS THRU SAT.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ONLY REMAINS UP FOR ONE ZONE ON THE CSTL WTRS FROM VA/NC
BORDER TO CURR BCH LGT TIL 6 AM SAT. WNDS WILL BE GENLY N-NE
OVERNIGHT 10-15 KT THRU SAT.
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NE...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM
THE S ON SUN. GFS SOLN LOOKS TOO FAST AND HAVE DISREGARDED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IT DEPICTS ON MONDAY (KEEPING WINDS NE ON
MON/MON NGT PER NAM/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS). THIS CONSENSUS SOLN
PLACES THE SFC HIGH IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCA CONDITIONS
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY (OVER NEW ENGLAND) AND HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO PREV FCST (HIGHER THAN THE MODELS FOR WIND SPEEDS). FOR
SEAS...GNLY WENT 5-6 FT FOR NOW ON THE COAST (GFS SOLN YIELDS A
WAVEWATCH FCST FOR ONLY 4-5 FT SOUTH AND 6-7 FT NORTH). IN ANY
EVENT...LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED...WITH SEBV2
DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE DROPPING BELOW ACTION STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK...NO FLOOD CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED (OR FORECAST) OVER THE AKQ HSA.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
HYDROLOGY...MAM/JEF
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210217
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
917 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ARE TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST
AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE LOTS OF
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKY FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING TOMORROW. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S. THE MAV VALUES LOOKED REASONABLE. ON SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMING SO HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE THICKEN CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN SW PARTS OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS GENERALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
STRONG OF A SYSTEM. THE NAM/CANADIAN SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
OVERRUNNING PCPN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND BRINGING SOME LOW POPS IN LATE SUNDAY BUT FOCUSING POPS AND
QPF ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HESITANT TO BE TOO SLOW AS
OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN FASTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MET ON SUNDAY FOR
HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DID LEAN A LITTLE MILDER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND LINGERING RAIN. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM ON MONDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE GFS SOLUTION...IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THEY
WOULD BE WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...SO EVOLUTION OF
NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FCST MON NIGHT AS NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HIGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AT LEAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLC/SE COAST (OUTLIER GFS SOLN GNLY DISREGARDED). FOR
TUE/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST (ECMWF) OR
WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC
FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER
WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GENERALLY COVER THE TAF SITES. WNDS WILL BE
MOSTLY N-NE AND LIGHT. SOME SHALLOW GRND FOG PSBL ACROSS THE
REGION BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. VFR CONDS THRU SAT.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ONLY REMAINS UP FOR ONE ZONE ON THE CSTL WTRS FROM VA/NC
BORDER TO CURR BCH LGT TIL 6 AM SAT. WNDS WILL BE GENLY N-NE
OVERNIGHT 10-15 KT THRU SAT.
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NE...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM
THE S ON SUN. GFS SOLN LOOKS TOO FAST AND HAVE DISREGARDED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IT DEPICTS ON MONDAY (KEEPING WINDS NE ON
MON/MON NGT PER NAM/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS). THIS CONSENSUS SOLN
PLACES THE SFC HIGH IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCA CONDITIONS
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY (OVER NEW ENGLAND) AND HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO PREV FCST (HIGHER THAN THE MODELS FOR WIND SPEEDS). FOR
SEAS...GNLY WENT 5-6 FT FOR NOW ON THE COAST (GFS SOLN YIELDS A
WAVEWATCH FCST FOR ONLY 4-5 FT SOUTH AND 6-7 FT NORTH). IN ANY
EVENT...LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND FLOOD
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE AKQ CWA.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/JEF
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 210213 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RESIDUAL UPPER WAVE REMAINS BACK TO THE NW...SLIDING DOWN THRU
THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT W/ LITTLE-NO PRECIP BUT A LARGE MASS OF
LOW CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE ERIE DOWN INTO THE
CNTRL APLCNS. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE ONLY WX ACTIVITY FOR THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THIS CLOUD
BANK WILL BREAK-UP AND SLIDE DOWN ACROSS THE NRN SHENANDOAH VLY
AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS DECREASING
AND AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF NWLY WINDS THIS AFTN...CONDITIONS ARE
RELATIVELY DRY...SO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED
/OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED VLYS AND OTHER TYPICAL FOG-PRONE AREAS
TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HRS/. THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLIDE DOWN INTO M/U30S /L40S IN THE METRO AREAS AND
CLOSER TO THE BAY/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SCATTERED CU DECK DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LRG HIPRES HANGING OUT ACRS THE NE/GRTLKS RGN SAT NGT-SUN. DIFF THIS
CYCLE IS THE COMBO OF SFC HIGH AND H5 RDGG...MAKING IT HARDER TO
DISLODGE. THRFR..GDNC THIS CYCLE SLOER THAN PRVS CYCLES. GFS SEEMS
TO BE QUICKER...BUT IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE AFFECTED BY GRIDSCALE
FEEDBACK...OWING TO S/WV PHASING. GGEM/NAM IN CONCERT...SUGGESTING
PCPN WL BE CENTERED ON SUN NGT-MON. A WK LOW WL THEN EMERGE OFF MID
ATLC CST MON NGT. WL MAKE APPRO CHGS TO GRIDS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT THERE/S NO COLD AIR ARND. AFTR MAKING APPRO MOS TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS /NEGLECTING THE COOLER MAXT OF WET GFS AND SIDING WARMER
SUN NGT AS CLDS ADVECT NWD/...MAXT WL BE NEAR NRML BUT MIN-T WARMER
THAN NRML.
SHUD GET A RESPITE TUE BEFORE ANTHR STORM AFFECTS CWFA IN THE
WED-THU TIMEFRAME. WL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO TRAVEL IMPACTS. ATTM...
THE WARM TREND CONTS AS A CUTOFF H5 LOW DVLPS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SCATTERED STRATUS DECK /3-4 KFT/ WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT IN FROM
THE NW /BUT ONLY IN SMALLER PORTIONS FROM ITS LARGER MASS - BACK
ACROSS OH/WRN PA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DRIFTING
THRU AND DISSIPATING BY LATER IN THE EVNG. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10 KNOTS THRU THIS TIME.
VFR THRU SUN. FLGT RESTRICTION DUE TO LOPRES SUN NGT-MON NGT.
&&
.MARINE...
NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT W/ A MINIMAL PRES GRADIENT...SO NO WX CONCERNS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU THE WKND. LOPRES AFFECTING WATERS MON. WNDS MAY
PICK UP IN ADVC OF LOW...W/ A ENELY FETCH.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210050
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
750 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. LOW
TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS INTO THE 30S
SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210045 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS TO
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR
PERHAPS SOME SUNNY BREAKS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT BASED ON CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOW END VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY LATE...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT/HLG NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
FINALLY SCATTERING OUT LATE SAT AFTN...WITH SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
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