525
FXAK68 PAFC 032351
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Thu Jul 3 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Partly cloudy skies with pockets of sunshine continue through
Friday afternoon. High pressure remains situated over the Interior
over the next few days, with easterly flow continuing across
inland portions of Southcentral. Isolated thunderstorms and rain
showers are possible this afternoon/evening and Friday
afternoon/evening for the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley. A
low developing near the Alaska Peninsula sweeps its front into
the southern Gulf of Alaska late Friday into Saturday, helping
shove the high pressure further north through the weekend and
promoting a pattern change for Southcentral. The approaching front
is expected to reach Kodiak Island Friday night and move north
into the north Gulf coast by late Saturday night. Increased cloud
cover is expected ahead of the front, bringing mostly cloudy skies
into Southcentral by Friday night. Temperatures will gradually
cool through the weekend, with temperatures in the upper 60`s
(lower 60`s for coastal areas) expected by Sunday. Rain is
expected along the front, moving from Kodiak north toward the
coastal areas through aforementioned time frame. Moisture will
feed into portions of the western Copper River Basin and the
Susitna Valley, producing areas of rain showers for Sunday. The
bulk of precipitation is expected to fall over the north Gulf
coast, including the Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai
Peninsula, late Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...
A weakening, occluded area of low pressure is situated south of
the AK Pen this afternoon and is exiting into the western Gulf.
Its large upper level low component with broad scale cyclonic flow
is sending easterly waves across Southwest AK, which is causing
shower activity to continue across the northern Kuskokwim Valley,
in particular for Sleetmute, Aniak, and Lime Village. Although the
environment does not look as unstable today, an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as the afternoon progresses. Rain
chances decrease as this system moves out of the area by the
start of the holiday weekend.
By this evening to early Friday morning, a complex area of low
pressure with some semblance of a triple point low developing on
its eastern flank moves into the Bering Sea with rain, elevated
winds, and areas of fog. The Pribilofs will likely feel the most
impacts, especially with fog potential Friday, but these impacts,
to a lesser extent, will be felt along the Central Aleutians as
well. Guidance also shows Shemya and much of the Western Aleutians
become blanketed by fog and low stratus starting this evening
into midday Friday. Likewise this evening, Cold Bay winds begin to
pick up in intensity as southeasterly gap winds funnel through
the area. If current guidance holds, peak winds will be Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning, and could gust as high as 35 kts
as the front and associated area of low pressure begins to stall.
By Saturday afternoon, models show the complex low and its energy
shifts abruptly eastward, with much of its precipitation moving
across the AK Pen and Bristol Bay areas before tapering off Sunday
morning. By Sunday morning, an area of low pressure looks to
skirt just south of the Western Aleutians and deepens as it does
so. For southwest AK, some thunderstorm activity may develop
Sunday afternoon across the northern Kuskokwim Valley.
-AM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...
A large upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska on Monday will
continue to slide east to Southeast Alaska through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, there is moderate to above average confidence that an
Arctic trough will dig southwestward nearing Southwest Alaska for
Thursday. While southcentral see rainy conditions along the coast
and interior mountain ranges Monday, Southwest and the AKPEN will
remain mostly dry except for a few showers in interior Southwest.
Easterly upper-level shortwaves will continue across Southcentral
through Tuesday which will keep shower chances going for the
interior while the coast sees quieter weather by then.
As the Arctic trough begins to dig southwestward for Tuesday,
shortwaves also look to dig down ahead of the main trough across
Southwest. Most precipitation associated with these shortwaves
looks to be confined to the Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western
Alaska Range Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers fill in back further
east in the Susitna Valley for Wednesday as southwest flow around
the southerly digging trough becomes more dominant. Rain chances
make it back to the southern coast for Thursday with the greatest
chances being around Bristol Bay and Prince William Sound as
showers continue along the southwestern interior and the Susitna
Valley.
Along the Aleutians, a low pressure system will track just south
of the Chain Monday through bringing rain to the Western and
Central Aleutians. A Kamchatka low, not that strong, might impact
the Western Aleutians for Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence in
the low track for this possible system is very low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The southeasterly Turnagain
Arm winds are expected to develop again by mid to late afternoon
and persist through late tonight.
&&
$$
241
FXAK69 PAFG 032220
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Thu Jul 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The word of the day? Hot. Hot, dry and windy in spots today as the
Alaskan summer rolls on. Heat Advisories are issued for portions
of the West Coast, Western Interior and southern slopes of the Brooks
range through 10 PM this evening. The pattern doesn`t look to
change much for the next few days as upper level ridging remains
nearly stationary over the North Slope. There is some relief
coming next week as a cooler and wetter pattern looks to move in.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Hot, dry and windy in the hills north of Fairbanks, White
Mountains, Chena Hills and Northern Interior.
- Heat Advisories will be issued from Tanana to Eielson today for
temperatures in the mid 80s.
- Red flag conditions continue tomorrow, especially in the higher
terrain of the Central and Eastern Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Hot, dry and windy conditions continue for the Interior with
Red Flag Warnings in the Upper Kobuk and Lower Koyukuk Valleys
through tonight.
- Warm elsewhere with above normal temperatures, especially away
from the immediate coast.
- Isolated thunderstorms in the Seward Peninsula this
afternoon/evening with isolated storms in the NW Arctic Borough.
- Cooler and potentially wetter pattern heading into next week.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Hot and dry, especially inland from the coast and in the Brooks
Range where temperatures can be as high as 85 degrees.
- Removed coastal sections from the Advisory.
- Temperatures cool down this weekend, especially on Sunday and
into next week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A strong stationary ridge aloft is keeping things hot, dry and
windy across Northern Alaska. There isn`t much change to the
ongoing forecast in the short term. Expect isolated thunderstorms
in the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Borough this
afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage on
Saturday, including the Alaska Range, Western Interior and Western
North Slope. On Sunday, expect a more typical summer day with
thunderstorms isolated across most of the terrain in the Interior
and Brooks Range. The extended forecast looks to change up quite a
bit.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure persists aloft through
Saturday, then begins to weaken and break down Sunday. Red Flag
Warnings for hot, dry, and windy conditions are in effect across a
large portion of the central and eastern Interior both Thursday and
Friday. Wind concerns increase late Friday evening as high pressure
at the surface builds over the Yukon Territory and a thermal trough
shifts southwest along the north slopes of the Alaska Range. This
will bring gusty northeast winds from the Nenana Hills east to the
Canadian Border. Winds will persist through the night Friday night
over ridgetops with poor relative humidity recovery expected.
Saturday will be the hottest day with persistent northeast winds,
including the possibility of needing additional Red Flag Warnings
for the northwest interior. The ridge begins to weaken Sunday,
bringing cooler conditions and a shift to mostly southwest winds
across all areas. Conditions look to be cooler with higher RH and
more showers and thunderstorms moving into next week, though
consecutive days of wetting rains in the same spot are not expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A much cooler and wetter pattern is looking likely. Rain is also
looking more likely, especially in the Central and Eastern
Interior Monday through Wednesday next week with isolated to
scattered showers over the West Coast and Western Interior.
Temperatures look to drop into the 50s and 60s in the Interior
with some 40s and even 30s on the North Slope. There have been
some hints at snow, or mixed rain and snow in the higher peaks of
the Brooks Range as well, though we will see how it plays out.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ935>937-939>941-943-944-953.
Heat Advisory for AKZ812>814-816-818-822-823-829.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ919-928-931>934-938-942.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ934-938-942.
Heat Advisory for AKZ806>809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
&&
$$
Bianco
Fire Weather: Chriest
192
FXAK67 PAJK 032156
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
156 PM AKDT Thu Jul 3 2025
.SHORT TERM...Short term forecast heading into the holiday weekend
remains on track with low cloud cover starting to thin out over the
southern and central panhandle through this afternoon but still hang
on along the Icy Strait corridor. Weak anticyclonic flow can be
seen in satellite imagery of cumulus clouds that have popped up at
higher elevations along Baranof Island and Admiralty Island,
essentially filling the void left by the dissipating stratus
layer in those areas. The best chance for continued clearing skies
will be over the inner channels, as drier air aloft tries to make
take center stage. Overnight Thursday into Friday most areas in
the central panhandle will still have enough moisture in the low
levels to see fog development, as winds remain relatively light
and variable and afternoon cumulus cloud cover diminishes.
For the 4th of July holiday, cloud cover looks to diminish further
across a majority of the panhandle as the ridge continues to push
in with even lower chances for any afternoon showers to produce
measurable precipitation. The lone exception will be Skagway and
the Klondike Highway as chances have increased for convective showers
from a trough moving down from the Yukon to make their way over
the town Friday evening. Coming from the interior though, these
showers will have fairly high cloud decks, and depending on the
stage of their development, could end up having little rain
actually making it to the surface.
.LONG TERM...Key messages:
- A drier trend is expected this weekend with times of light showers
still expected.
- Temperatures slightly increase into the weekend.
- Weak trough to skirt the far southern panhandle Saturday
- The next low pressure system enters the gulf at the start of next
week.
- Unseasonable heavy rain for far southern panhandle Monday into
Tuesday.
Details: Precipitation chances diminish into the weekend as an area
of weak surface high pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska. Even with diminishing precipitation chances, that does not
mean that the panhandle will remain completely dry. Isolated
showers remain possible across the panhandle in the afternoon
hours. However, minimum QPF is expected with no impacts. Along
with light showers, an upper level trough will continue to bring
increased cloud cover with broken to overcast skies. Temperatures
at the end of the week begin to return to near typical values for
this time of year with maximum temperatures in the mid to high
60s. Low temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s to end out
the week.
Toward the end of the weekend, a low will slide into the northwest
gulf and a trough extending from it will bring a shift to more
southerly flow over the panhandle and increasing precipitation
rates. The heaviest precipitation currently looks to be more
focused on the northern panhandle than the central and southern
areas for Sunday. Another system will move into the southern gulf
early next week bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain. Some
model discrepancies still exist with the placement of this
feature, however models continue to trend towards winds increasing
along the eastern gulf to fresh to strong breezes by Tuesday.
Ensemble trends have begun to show a signal for heavy rain with
this early week system impacting the far southern panhandle from a .
The EFI has trended towards increasing SoT near 2 for QPF for the
far southern panhandle, with more than 80% members, for the 24 hr
period from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The track
of the plume of moisture responsible for producing this heavy
rain will be the primary forecast challenge heading into the next
work week. With continued model spread for this low pressure
system just under a week away, we will continue to monitor it`s
development.
&&
.AVIATION...A bit of a pattern transition today becoming a bit
more prevalent tomorrow as weak ridging sets up across SE Alaska
and subsidence results in less rain and low ceilings. We still
will have to contend with areas of lower ceilings and potential
visibilities tonight where we will see some reformation of low
clouds and some fog. The main area for IFR/LIFR with fog
production tonight looks to be around the Juneau, Angoon, and
Petersburg regions. Elsewhere mostly MVFR overnight and especially
tomorrow with most locations seeing VFR by the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...Inside Waters: Generally low winds of 10 kt or less for
most areas this afternoon. The only exception to that is in Taiya
Inlet, but it is not much higher, only blowing 15 kt out of the
south there. These lower wind conditions are expected to continue
for the next few days with some possible localized increases to 15
to 20 kt or so in the afternoons and evenings due to sea breeze
circulations. Waves will also be rather low with mainly 3 ft or
less wind wave through the weekend and little contribution from
swell near ocean entrances. Next more intense storm is more toward
Monday night into Tuesday with 15 to 25 kt winds possible for
mainly the southern inner channels.
.Outside Waters: Highest winds of 15 to 20 kt remain stationed in
the central gulf this afternoon. While seas remain rather low
with the highest being 4 ft seas for the near shore waters and 6
ft in the central gulf. There is also a small SW swell of 3 ft at
9 sec observed as well. This pattern is not going to change all
that much through the early weekend. It is into Sunday and early
next week that we start to see some changes. First the trough over
the central and southern gulf will drift north on Sunday to bring
some 15 to 20 kt SE winds and seas to 5 ft to the northern near
shore waters. That is followed by a stronger system on Monday
night into Tuesday that will bring 20 to 30 kt winds and seas up
to 8 ft for the SE gulf. Most of those seas will be wind wave as
the southerly swell will still only be around 2 to 3 ft through
the period.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...EAL
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