267
FXAK68 PAFC 100217
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...
Snow will continue to taper off across the eastern Copper River
Basin this evening. Besides some lingering snow showers across
Western Prince William Sound and the coastal mountain ranges,
expect a rather quiet night in the weather department across
Southcentral Alaska.
Attention quickly shifts to a lifting frontal system originating
from a strong low pressure system in the Bering Sea Tuesday.
Precipitation will reach Kodiak Island first Tuesday morning with
a rain/snow mix turning to rain by mid-morning. Snow and rain/snow
mix then lifts northward to the rest of the coast, Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys by late Tuesday morning.
For Anchorage, expect light snow to be falling by late morning and
then to cut off by afternoon with stronger southeast downslope
flow aloft. However, when the while upper trough lifts through the
area and a surface low pressure system tracks into Prince William
Sound, expect snow to fill back in by the evening and overnight
hours. Expect a light accumulation of a few inches possible across
the Anchorage area.
Higher snowfall amounts look to occur across Turnagain Pass, the
Western Susitna Valley, as well as along the Cook Inlet coast of
the Western Kenai Peninsula. Locations from Anchor Point northward
to Nikiski could see 4 to 8 inches of snow with lower amounts
inland Tuesday. Turnagain pass looks to see 5 to 10 inches of snow
Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. With this, Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for the entirety of the
Western Kenai Peninsula as well as Turnagain Pass for the
anticipated snow amounts Tuesday. The heaviest snow will fall
along the Western Kenai Peninsula mid-morning Tuesday through the
early afternoon with light snow continuing into the evening.
Across Turnagain Pass, the heaviest snow will fall from the early
afternoon hours through the evening hours, including the evening
commute.
In addition, the Western Susitna Valley, Willow, and portions of
the Northern Copper River Basin, especially Paxson, may also
experience a period of moderate to heavy snow Tuesday. However,
confidence was not high enough to put out an Advisory yet due to
finer details of where the best snow bands may set up. Paxson`s
setup is more of an upslope flow set up with southerly flow
upsloping against the Alaska Range Tuesday afternoon into the day
on Wednesday.
Additional rounds of light snow are likely for Wednesday as the
Bering Sea low pressure system continues to push shortwaves over
Southcentral Alaska. Light snow will also be aided by the
weakening surface low pressure system moving inland from Prince
William Sound. Another low pressure system lifts into the
southcentral Gulf for Thursday. However, indications are that most
of the energy and precipitation with this system will be confined
to the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. Stay tuned to the
forecast as minor adjustments are made to the upcoming system for
tomorrow/Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...
KEY MESSAGES...
1) A High Wind Warning is in effect for Adak and Atka, and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for Unalaska through Tuesday.
2) Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Pribilof Islands
through Tuesday evening.
3) Heavy snow/blowing snow for coastal Southwest Alaska with
possible blizzard conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 1...A High Wind Warning is in effect for Adak and
Atka and a Wind Advisory is in effect for Unalaska.
The overall eastern/northeastern shift in the Bering Sea storm,
verified by observations continues to result in slight changes to
the wind products for the Aleutians from Adak to Unalaska. Wind
gusts through this afternoon range from 35 to 45 mph. Leaning
toward a blend of short-term models in addition to the marine
observations and their trends continues forecaster confidence in
the current high wind warning and advisory products. The strongest
winds are expected from this evening through tomorrow afternoon
with southwest gusts ranging from 80 mph to 90 mph in Adak and
Atka and gusts up to 70 mph in Unalaska. The axis of the strongest
winds has shifted northeastward toward Adak and Atka consistently
in the past and current model runs. This early week low remains
quasi-stationary through mid-week bringing continued gusty winds
and precipitation to the Central Aleutians.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the
Pribilof Islands through Tuesday evening.
This early week Bering Sea low moves west of the Pribilof Islands
today into Wednesday. As the low moves northward, its front will
bring southeasterly to easterly winds to the Pribilofs tonight
through tomorrow evening. The wind gusts for the NBM 95th
percentile as well as the GFS, NAM and HiRes models consistently
exceed 60 mph during this time with the strongest winds from
tomorrow morning through the afternoon when gusts range from 65
mph to 75 mph. Temperatures briefly rise above freezing during the
front`s arrival before returning to just below freezing. During
this time, the precipitation type will remain as snow due to high
snowfall rates continuing to bring cooler air aloft to the
surface. Additionally, falling and blowing snow is likely during
these strong winds causing low visibility. Snowfall accumulations
ranging from 4 to 6 inches with 1/2 mile visibility is expected.
Blowing snow concerns will continue after the snowfall ends. After
tomorrow and into Wednesday, there are indications the low will
stall just north of the Island before moving toward the Southwest
coast. Regardless of the late-week track, this low will continue
to bring gusty winds and periods of wintry precipitation to the
Pribilofs through mid-week.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Heavy snow/blowing snow for coastal Southwest
Alaska with possible blizzard conditions.
Temperatures across the Interior Southwest remain in the single
digits below zero. Cold temperatures will remain over the region
as offshore winds persist into late this evening. As the front
from the Bering Low moves northward, southerly to easterly winds
will dominate the overnight to early Wednesday morning time frame.
Steady snowfall and high winds are expected. The greatest snowfall
amounts and highest wind gusts remain in the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast and Nunivak Island where blowing snow will create whiteout
conditions frequently this evening into tomorrow afternoon.
Snowfall spreads into the Interior Kuskokwim Delta overnight into
Wednesday morning. Though wind gusts will be lower, blowing snow
causing reduced visibility is expected. Farther south, another
robust area of snow is expected in the Western Capes and Northern
Bristol Bay coast. Though snow totals have fluctuated, wind gusts
up to 45 mph will cause low visibility as early as tomorrow
morning.
Lastly, onshore winds for the Kuskokwim Delta from Tuesday into
Wednesday are expected. Due to the amount of sea ice into the
Bering and shorefast ice along the coast, the threat of coastal
impacts is minimal at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...
By Friday, a weak but well agreed upon low pressure system will
be stationed over the northern Gulf of Alaska, likely promoting
unsettled conditions with onshore easterly flow into the Western
Prince William Sound and precipitation. A similarly weak ridge
over the Southern Alaska Peninsula will be weakening further and
retreating to the northern Pacific, making way for the next system
to enter the Bering. A strong low over the Kamchatka Peninsula
Friday morning will have pushed a fairly strong front into the
Central Bering and Aleutians. Agreement is mixed on whether or not
a subsequent low will form along the triple-point of this front,
which would work to increase its effects across the region. By
Friday morning, the front will be sweeping a large swath of strong
southerly winds across much of the Chain, and by later Friday
morning, pushing a new precipitation pattern into Southwest
Alaska. By Friday afternoon, agreement remains strong that the
Kamchatka low shifts into the Northern Bering, allowing the front
to orient favorably for strong onshore winds into Southwest Alaska
as well as continued precipitation across the area.
Uncertainty arises on Saturday with the potential for smaller
lows to move through the Bering. These would increase winds and
precipitation chances for wherever they move over. Uncertainty for
Southcentral is a little better, with a low forming somewhere in
the northern Gulf, allowing for snowfall for the coast and
potentially inland as well. The picture will become more clear
overtime as guidance gets a better feel for the forecast. By
Sunday morning, agreement degrades further with some solutions
bringing the ridge back in over the Southern Alaska Peninsula and
another potent low moving near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Another,
slower front may be entering the Western Bering and Aleutians near
Shemya by Monday morning, with Southwest Alaska to shift back
into a more benign inactive pattern.
-CL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Stratus is holding firm over northern Cook Inlet leading
to continued MVFR ceilings. The ceilings should lift some late
this afternoon or evening as drier air filters in from the west.
There is an outside chance for some visibility reduction in fog
overnight if the clouds clear out enough, but if that happens the
air will likely be dry enough to keep the fog from developing,
hence just an outside chance. The next front moves into the area
Tuesday bringing in potential for low level wind shear during the
day with northerly surface winds and southeasterly winds aloft.
These southeasterly winds aloft will also mitigate snowfall during
the day Tuesday, but then snow, and MVFR to IFR conditions, are
expected by late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening as the
cross-barrier winds subside.
&&
$$
880
FXAK69 PAFG 100044
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A large storm system enters the Bering Sea today and slowly moves
northeast through Wednesday. As it approaches winds increase
across the West Coast ahead of a front bringing areas of light to
moderate snowfall to much of the West Coast and Western Interior.
Cold temperatures across the North Slope and Interior warm as the
storm brings warmer air north. Periods of blizzard conditions are
expected across the West Coast from the Bering Strait south to
the YK Delta. The storm weakens rapidly Wednesday night into
Thursday. Another, weaker, but wetter system moves into the Bering
Sea late this week bringing more widespread snowfall to much of
the region this weekend.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Very cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the
Interior through Tuesday morning, as snow chances remain
confined to the Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska Range. A
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect in this corridor
through tonight for an additional 1-5" of snow.
- Coldest valleys through midweek will continue to reach down to
the 20s/30s below zero with 40s below zero expected for the
Yukon Flats up to Arctic Village. Wind chills will be even
colder at times.
- Snow chances increase across the Interior and Alaska Range
Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to warming temperatures and
increased winds. Strongest winds will be southerly through the
Alaska Range Passes, easterly around Delta Junction, and
easterly/northeasterly across the White Mountains and Dalton
Highway Summits.
- Snowfall amounts Tuesday through Thursday are expected to be
around 1-3" with up to 3-7" for southern portions of the Alaska
Range Passes. A winter weather advisory has been issued for 4 to
8 inches of snow
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Very cold and dry conditions continue across Western Alaska
through Monday, with coldest locations reaching down to the
20s/30s below zero and colder wind chills possible. Winds
remain breezy along the West Coast and across higher elevations.
The coldest conditions are expected in valleys with light to no
wind.
- A storm moving into the Bering Sea Monday night into Tuesday
will support an increase in winds, snow chances, and warming
temperatures through midweek.
- Strong easterly winds gusting up to 55 mph expected Tuesday
ahead of the first front of snow approaching from the south
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The strongest winds are
expected along the coast from the Seward Peninsula south. Winds
shift northerly Wednesday increasing through the Bering Strait
and decreasing along the Eastern Norton Sound.
- A front extending from the storm brings a wave of new snow
across the West Coast from the south to the north Tuesday
through Thursday. 2 to 7 inches of snow is expected with the
highest amounts expected to the southwest and along south facing
slopes along the Southern Seward Peninsula, Lower Yukon, and YK
Delta regions. Relatively lighter amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected for most of the rest of the West Coast and Western
Interior.
- Blizzard warnings have been issued for the Lower Yukon, Yukon
Delta, Eastern Norton Sound Coast, Bering Strait Coast, Diomede,
and St. Lawrence Island. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula and Interior Seward
Peninsula for gusty winds, moderate to heavy snowfall and
periods of blowing snow.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Very cold and dry conditions will continue through midweek, as
temperatures reach down to the 30s/40s below zero to around 50
below zero from Toolik Lake to Umiat. Wind chills will be even
colder, down to around 50-70 below zero. Extreme Cold Warnings
remain in place through at least Wednesday.
- Winds will continue to remain light overall as more moderate
winds remain confined to the Western Arctic Coast from Point Lay
to Point Hope. Winds will see an increase regionwide Tuesday
into Wednesday, with areas of blowing snow and localized
blizzard conditions possible.
- Light snow chances will move into the western portions of the
Brooks Range and North Slope Wednesday into Thursday. Total snow
accumulations of up to an inch along the North Slope and 1 to 3
inches in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Monday through Thursday.
At the start of the forecast period Monday, a cold air mass with
850 millibar temperatures between -20C to -30C sits over
northeastern Alaska and a strong 948 millibar storm enters the
Bering Sea. This storm is quickly occluding cutting it off from
much of the warm, moist air that has been fueling it which will
cause the storm to slowly weaken as it spins over the Bering Sea
Tuesday and Wednesday. As the storm meanders north the pressure
gradient along the West Coast increases causing easterly winds to
ramp up especially from the Seward Peninsula south. Localized
Blizzard conditions are possible with these strong winds even
ahead of the approaching occluded front. Once the front reaches
the Yukon Delta Tuesday evening falling snow will further
contribute to the poor conditions. Winds weaken as the front
approaches and eventually shift more northerly Wednesday as the
storm begins to move east. Another storm moving through the North
Pacific towards the Gulf of Alaska drags the Bering Sea storm east
while robbing it of much of its strength Wednesday evening and
overnight. The storm rapidly weakens late Wednesday through early
Thursday. As the front moves further north it pushes against the
cold air mass across the North Slope and brings warmer weather to
much of the area.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Thursday night through Sunday.
Northerly winds through the Bering Strait decrease going into
Thursday evening, but are expected to persist along the western
Arctic Coast through Friday morning out of the northeast. These
stronger winds have the potential to cause some mild to moderate
blowing snow conditions, but will likely be short lived. As the
upper level ridge situated to our west briefly weakens, a cold
front is able to make a quick push inland late Thursday into
Friday, creating an additional chance for some light snowfall
across the western Interior and Brooks Range. A warm and wet low
moves into the eastern Bering Sea late Friday into Saturday,
raising temperatures back up into the single digits and teens
above zero for much of northern Alaska south of the Brooks Range.
With this system, we`re expecting to see another wide swath of
snowfall return to the West Coast and Interior, with the highest
amounts across the Kuskokwim Delta and Alaska Range. Exact
snowfall totals are still yet to be determined since they`re
largely dependent on which track the low ends up taking. For now,
we have moderate confidence in a snowier weather pattern for much
of northern Alaska going into this weekend. Model confidence is
pretty low going into next week, but generally suggests a return
of cold and dry weather, with some occasional embedded
disturbances out in the Bering Sea.
Coastal Hazard Potential...
As a low moves into the eastern Bering Sea on Tuesday, it will
bring with it a fairly wide area of gale-force winds. Given the
likely storm track to the south of Nunivak Island, these winds
should remain largely easterly to southeasterly and offshore for
areas from Hooper Bay north. By Wednesday afternoon and evening,
winds shift more to the north, which could bring winds alongshore
from the Yukon Delta to Hooper Bay and onshore over northern St.
Lawrence Island. These areas are generally heavily ice-covered,
which should limit the overall flooding potential, but some water
rises through cracks in the ice at Hooper Bay are a possibility.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ801>810.
Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ811.
Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ824>827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ833.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-803-850-852-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ804>807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
Storm Warning for PKZ851.
Storm Warning for PKZ854.
&&
$$
Stokes
Santiago- Extended
013
FXAK67 PAJK 100735
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1035 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026
.UPDATE...Update to include the 06Z TAF issuance...
Minor edits to the forecast this evening. Did bump up southerly winds
in Lynn Canal and Skagway for tonight and Tuesday morning as gusts
of 30 to 35kt being measured at Skagway airport and dock as well
as Eldred Rock. Furthermore, have the Wind Advisory starting
earlier for Skagway, now at 9am Tuesday morning. Confidence is
increasing for a potential upgrade to High Wind Warning for
Skagway given latest observations and forecast trends. Wind
Advisories may also be expanded for more zones across northern
SEAK. Otherwise, forecast remains on track with winds increasing
through the short term as a strong cold front approaches from the
west on Tuesday and passes through the panhandle Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, bringing strong gusty winds and a period
of moderate to possibly heavy rain.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Trough of low pressure passing through SEAK through the day
Tuesday will continue showers and some breezy winds to the
panhandle.
- A stronger front arrives Tuesday night followed by a new low
Wednesday night.
SHORT TERM...Main changes to short term today was to narrow down
wind timing and speeds for the incoming system Tuesday into
Wednesday. A low end gale force front is moving into the northern
gulf Tuesday, proceeded by southwesterly 20 to 25 mph winds
across the gulf. Areas of the panhandle near the water will feel
these winds periodically pick up through the rest of Monday night,
with areas around Lynn Canal a bit higher with isolated gale
force gusts. The incoming front is expected to reach the outer
coast of the panhandle midday Tuesday, pushing inland and bringing
strong sustained winds with isolated gales up through the inner
channels through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.
Widespread gale to strong gale force wind gusts are expected
during the peak of the system overnight. Areas of the strongest
winds will be the far northern interior panhandle, with Haines
expected to see around 40 to 45 mph wind gusts through this period
and Skagway expected to see closer to 50 to 55 mph wind gusts
starting slightly earlier and for a slightly longer period.
Southern and outer coastal regions of the panhandle are also
expected to see strong winds with gusts around 40 mph, especially
in unsheltered areas near the water and higher elevation areas.
Heaviest rains associated with this system will be along the outer
coast and for higher elevated regions, though a majority of the
panhandle is still expected to see between half an inch to an inch
of rain in 24 hours from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning.
High temperatures are still expected to remain in the 40s, with
lows in the mid to upper 30s for most locations Monday night.
Breaks in the clouds for southern and interior areas of the
panhandle will be possible overnight Monday, allowing for areas of
patchy fog to develop through the early morning hours. High
overcast clouds moving in before the main front Tuesday midday
will make sure that any potential lingering fog will dissipate
through Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...An active week continues in the mid-range as a stout
jet continues to feed systems into the north Pacific and the Gulf
of Alaska. As one system weakens Wednesday along southeast, an
additional shortwave trough will reinforce storm development in
the north Pacific, allowing a storm force low to develop near 46N
158W. As this system quickly moves into the Gulf of Alaska
Wednesday night, southeast winds will freshen up along our coast
to gale force and bringing additional moderate to heavy
precipitation. For more wind info, see marine section below.
Touching on precipitation type, temperatures slowly start trending
down through the week, bringing increased chances of snow by
Thursday into the weekend for the north. For next week, the
primary threat remains focused on outflow across the inner
channels, with temperatures dropping into the single digits for
the north and teens for the south, helping to prime southeast for
future snow.
.AVIATION.../through Tuesday evening/...
Mainly MVFR to VFR conditions through Tuesday afternoon with
generally terrain driven showers near the airports. VIS and CIGs
will occasionally lower as if showers pass over the TAF sites.
Winds across the southern panhandle will generally be less than 10
kts through the period and if any clearing occurs through the
morning, fog/low stratus could develop and bring lower VIS/CIGs
but confidence is not high. Across the northern panhandle, winds
10-15G20-25kt will increase as a strong front approaches, becoming
15-22g25-32kt by Tuesday afternoon (PAGY 20-25G30-35kt becoming
30-35G45-50kt). Light winds for PAYA will increase to 10-15G20-25
by Tuesday afternoon. LLWS will increase through the period,
with winds 2kft aloft becoming 25-40kt by Tuesday evening,
strongest across central/northern SEAK as the front approaches.
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and coastal waters): As of Monday afternoon, a low
is making landfall along the southern portions of southeast, with
winds of moderate to fresh breezes are being reported by coastal
buoys. Significant heights were 7 to 9 ft, dominant energy out of
the south, focused near 9 to 12 seconds, masking fresh seas out of
the southeast. Further upstream a hurricane force low developing
near 47N 176E will continue moving toward the Bering. This low
will be responsible for our weather this week, driving a series of
secondary gale to storm force lows, gale force south-
southeasterly winds, and high wave energy along our coast. The
first of these systems will reach the Gulf Tuesday afternoon,
bringing near-gale force conditions to our coast. The second
system, which appears much stronger, will bring strong gales to
waters south of Cape Edgecumbe and seas near 30 ft. There is high
uncertainty with where the strongest winds might be, which is
resulting in large variance in wave height potential. For now, we
highlight south southwest significant wave heights near 30 ft for
the Prince of Wales coast and Dixon Entrance, with the potential
to see closer to 35 ft by Thursday afternoon.
Inside (Inner channels): Winds below 20 knots continue through
the inside with the exception of Lynn Canal, with low clouds and
rain showers moving over the region. Expect winds to slowly
increase out of the southeast Tuesday morning, with near- gale
force conditions for Lynn Canal and moderate to fresh breezes for
major north-south channels. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
as the low makes landfall, we will see gale force conditions in
Clarence Strait and Lynn Canal, with near- gales impacting other
major passages. Wednesday afternoon another system approaches,
with winds diminishing briefly through the inside before quickly
ramping back up to near gale, to gale force, conditions by early
Thursday. Winds diminish Friday into Saturday before outflow
begins to dominate the region, likely bringing gale force
conditions and freezing spray to Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ318.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 7 AM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ319.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 2 AM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ323.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 5 AM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ328.
Wind Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 7 AM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-031-033-644-651-662>664-671-672.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...AP
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