Area Forecast Discussions

943
FXAK69 PAFG 282116
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
116 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain showers in the valleys with snow showers
generally above 1000-2000ft through Wed AM. A flurry possible
in Fairbanks Tues night/Wed. Snow amounts 1 to 3 inches above
1000ft with a coating in Fairbanks.

- Snow likely in Isabel Pass tonight through Wed AM. 3 to 6
inches expected with another round of snow Wed eve into Thurs
with an additional 3 to 6 inches.

- More widespread light snow in the Interior Wed night into
Thurs with accumulating snow possible in Fairbanks.

- Temperatures drop significantly this week with highs for many
in the 30s by Tues/Wed and lows in the teens/20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Remaining breezy for much of the Coast with max gusts up to 45
mph in the Bering Strait Region, weaker to the east. Winds
remain gusty this week, up to 30 mph Tues-Thurs.

- Light snow showers in the Bering Strait Region through Thurs,
totaling less than 2 inches, mainly near Shishmaref. Rain/snow
showers in the Interior with little to no accumulation.

- Temperatures continue to drop with highs mainly in the 30s
this week, lows in the teens and 20s, coldest in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- The main storyline for the next week will be chilly, cloudy
and periods of snow.

- Snow accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches for most
spots through Thurs, heavier west of Anaktuvuk Pass with up to
6 inches. 1 inch or less near Wiseman.

- Temperatures cool into the mid/upper 20s for high in most
spots on Tues. Teens and 20s in the Brooks Range with a 1F to
3F temperature drop each day through Thurs. Warmest spots will
be from Kivalina to Point Hope, highs in the low/mid 30s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A bit of active weather across the area as valley rain and
elevation snow showers persist through Wednesday in the
Interior. Another round of snow is likely Wednesday night and
Thursday with the first accumulating snow possible for many in
the Interior. Isabel Pass likely receives light to moderate snow
Monday night through Wednesday AM, with another round Wednesday
night into Thursday. Periods of light snow persist on the North
Slope through much of the week. The West Coast sees breezy
conditions through much of the week, strongest today while the
Interior has a few rain/snow showers. Otherwise, temperatures
will drop across Northern Alaska through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It`s a very messy pattern at 500mb with a weak upper low in the
Gulf, an open wave trough over the Interior and a closed trough
digging southeast from the Chukchi Sea. Starting in the
Interior, numerous lobes of vorticity will be meandering around
from northwest to southeast bringing valley rain showers and
elevation snow showers through Wednesday. For the most part,
snow showers across the Interior will be above 2000ft on Monday,
1000ft on Tuesday with a chance even in the valleys on
Wednesday as snow levels drop. Isabel Pass likely sees periods
of light snow this evening through Wednesday morning as well.
Snow accumulations remain light, around 1 to 3 inches in the
Interior terrain above 1000ft with 3 to 6 inches in Isabel Pass
during this time. Wednesday night and Thursday, a piece of
energy rounding the base of the trough will move northward from
the Gulf, towards the AK Range and Interior bringing another
round of snow. This will be running into a much colder airmass,
so snow is the most likely precipitation type across the
Interior. Additional snow accumulations will be 3 to 6 inches in
Isabel Pass with another 1 to 3 inches possible in the terrain
of the Interior and Fairbanks potentially getting its first
measurable snowfall this year. As you would infer, temperatures
are dropping this week. Monday will be the warmest day as
temperatures remain in the upper 40s to near 50 in the valleys,
but they will be dropping quickly in the low 40s tomorrow and
widespread low to mid 30s by midweek. This is driven by 850mb
temperatures plummeting from near 2C to -8C by the middle of the
week.

Elsewhere, Western Alaska is relatively quiet but we continue to
see gusty winds along the coast through much of the week. The
strongest winds come today, gusting 35 to 45 mph but these do
come down, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph through the rest of the
week. The gusty wind is mainly due to a surface high over
Russia running into a surface low in the Interior, allowing for
a semi-strong pressure gradient over the West Coast. There will
be a fairly weak Arctic trough dropping southeast as well, this
will provide enough support for snow showers from the Bering
Strait northward with light snow accumulations less than 2
inches in the Northern Seward Peninsula this week. Otherwise,
temperatures will be dropping through the week, with highs in
the mid/upper 30s for most spots by Tuesday, low/mid 30s on
Wednesday and continuous dropping by 1F to 3F each day
thereafter. Low temperatures likely drop into the teens and 20s,
especially away from the coast by Wednesday morning.

The North Slope remains active as periods of snow persist
through the end of the week. None of the snow looks particularly
heavy with accumulations around 1 to 3 inches through Thursday
across most of the Brooks Range, but there may be up to 6 inches
west of Anaktuvuk Pass. Winds will be gusty in the Brooks Range
through Tuesday afternoon, meaning there is a chance for some
blowing snow, mainly on top of Atigun Pass. Temperatures remain
chilly and do cool down this week widespread highs in the 20s by
Wednesday and even some teens on Thursday, especially in the
Brooks Range. Kivalina to Point Hope remains a bit warmer with
highs remaining in the low to mid 30s for most of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday through Saturday, a slow-moving arctic trough will
keep Northern Alaska locked into a pattern of below average
temperatures with periods of snow. The trough has several
smaller shortwave features embedded within it which make it
difficult to pin down the exact timing and amount of snow
expected. However, snow amounts through the entire 72-hour
period are expected to be less than inch across Central and
Eastern Interior Valleys, with 3 to 6 inches possible in higher
terrain. One caveat to this is the Eastern Alaska Range and in
particular Isabel Pass. This area will receive a greater amount
of moisture as the bottom of the trough passes over the Gulf of
Alaska and directs flow back north. As a result, Isabel Pass may
see between 6 and 10 inches of snow from Thursday until Sunday
morning, with the heaviest snow expected on Thursday. Areas
north of the Brooks Range will experience intermittent light
snow through the end of the week as well, which should shift
east through the period. The Western Interior and West Coast
should get hardly any snow as they remain under the influence of
drier northerly flow. Temperatures in the Interior should
bottom out between 20 and 30F with daily highs around 35 to 40F.
The coldest time for much of the Interior looks to be Friday or
Saturday morning, where locations with clear skies will likely
drop into the teens. Temperatures north of the Brooks Range will
remain below freezing, and may get as low as the single digits
along the Arctic Plains.

Attention turns to a low coming in from the Pacific as it
enters the Bering Sea on Saturday and approaches the southwest
Coast on Sunday. Ensemble low locations are mostly staying south
of St Lawrence Island, reducing potential coastal impact
concerns for areas north of Hooper Bay. There are still moderate
rain amounts and winds expected with this system, but impacts
appear minimal at this time. We will keep a close eye on it and
keep you up to date as the system approaches.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No great concern for coastal hazards over the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be dropping with min RHs rising this week.
Expect highs in the upper 40s today, dropping to near 40 on
Tuesday with low 30s by the middle of the week. Min RHs will
largely be above 50% but may drop near 40% to 50% on Friday.
Winds will be a tad breezy beginning on Tuesday. Expect
northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph with an occasional gust to 20
mph. This continues into Wednesday, though shifting southeast
with a shift back to northwest on Thursday. A few gusts may be
up to 25 mph Thursday afternoon and evening. Some light snow is
also possible Wednesday night into Thursday, though
accumulations remain light and most likely less than 1 inch.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Interior rivers continue to drop to near normal values.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801-
805-810.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802-
850.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ806-807.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ808-854.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ809.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
Tuesday for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ853-
855-856.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...BIANCO
SYNOPSIS.......BIANCO
SHORT TERM.....BIANCO
LONG TERM......TROYKE
COASTAL........BIANCO
FIRE WEATHER...BIANCO
HYDROLOGY......BIANCO

524
FXAK67 PAJK 281925
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1125 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF Issuance and marine update.

&&


.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE...

VFR and high end MVFR conditions will be the order of the day for
flight conditions today. A weakening zone of low pressure over the
Gulf will keep overcast skies that will largely sit between 2-5 kft.
Additionally light rain will be continuous across the panhandle
today. Some convective activity may occur, meaning some localized
heavy showers may form, creating isolated pockets of vsby reduction.
Along with convection comes the isolated threat of thunderstorms
mostly along the coast/offshore, though today`s setup is not so
favorable as to require mention in the TAF. Winds will be modest in
the presence of the weak low.

&&

.MARINE...Small marine update for the morning. Northern Lynn
Canal has been blowing around 20 kts from the south through the
morning, which is expected to persist through the day. Winds in
the northern panhandle should begin to decrease Monday night into
Tuesday, shifting southeastward to impact the southern and central
panhandle through Tuesday. Sustained speeds should peak around 20
kts for locations near Five Finger Lighthouse and up the southern
channels.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 422 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain continues this evening into tomorrow with the heaviest
rainfall expected through this evening across the southern
panhandle. Total accumulations of 1-3 inches in 24 hours
possible.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early next week
with multiple weather systems.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

SHORT TERM...A low pressure system in the Western Gulf of Alaska
is bringing showers across the Panhandle this Monday morning.
Through the day, these rain showers are expected to continue as
the low moves eastward. Satellite shows that the showers
associated with the low are convective in nature. Due to this, a
strike of lightning or two cannot be ruled out through Tuesday
evening. Any convective showers may also produce some brief
moderate rainfall rates and gusty winds.

The low will continue to meander eastward as it weakens for the
next couple of days. By Tuesday into Wednesday, the low in the
Gulf will dissipate, but onshore flow will continue. The next low
pressure and front will move into the Gulf Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will lead to increasing rain chances and winds for
Southeast Alaska. This active weather pattern looks to keep
temperatures seasonably cool.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday to Sunday/...Active weather continues in a
typical Southeast Alaska fall fashion through the extended
forecast. A weakening low anchored in the gulf dissipates as it
drifts north and melts into the central gulf coast by Wednesday
morning. General upper-level, onshore flow mid week will leave the
panhandle experiencing showery activity, with higher potential
for breaks in the clouds. However, conditions are expected to
deteriorate Wednesday night into Thursday as another front
approaches. Another low moving NE out of the Pacific looks to move
over the Haida Gwaii or BC coast region Thursday; rain may cover
the southern panhandle, but another feature will drop into the
northern gulf and track east over the northern panhandle into
Friday. Continuous rain and gusty winds across the region could
last into the weekend as additional waves of moisture track across
the Gulf of Alaska. There looks to be a stronger low moving into
the western gulf with an associated frontal band arcing to the
central gulf by Saturday, bringing 20 to 30 kt winds approaching
the gulf coastal zones Saturday to Saturday night. Expect winds to
pick up along the coast and through major marine waterways, with
Small Craft Advisory conditions likely starting late Wednesday
night. Additionally, low cloud ceilings and steady rainfall will
reduce visibility, creating mountain obscuration and potential
delays for regional aviation throughout late week and the weekend.
Overall, the end of the week`s forecast will stay on the wet side
with fairly continuous rain, with higher amounts associated with
the frontal bands and lows.

AVIATION...
Last night`s front has mostly cleared the panhandle taking its
heavy rain and winds with it. Wind concerns for aviation have
largely diminished as a result with low level wind shear and
turbulence much reduced, to largely absent, compared to yesterday.
Lower wind conditions are expected to continue into tonight
though gusty winds near heavier showers are still possible.

Of greater concern this morning is the low clouds and fog that
has developed in some parts of the inner channels. Ceilings have
dropped to a few hundred feet in some areas while fog has dropped
vis to a few miles though webcams show any fog is rather shallow.
These lower conditions should diminish by late morning with VFR to
MVFR conditions for the rest of the day and into tonight. Showers
will be around also, especially along the outer coast from
Baranof Island northwestward, and will persist into tonight. Some
of these showers will likely bring vis and ceilings down to MVFR
or lower for brief periods of time and the strongest could produce
some lightning (again mainly along the outer coast).

MARINE...
Inner Channel: As a front pushes East into British Columbia, winds
in the inner channels are weaker than they were for most of Sunday.
However, winds are still elevated in Northern Lynn Canal, with
southerly 25 kt winds being reported. Based on the pressure
gradient orientation, winds up to 15 kts also appear possible near
Cape Decision and Port Gardner. Winds this morning are generally
less than 15 kts, and are expected to remain elevated through the
day. In the Northern Inner Channels, gusts up to 30 kts are
expected with a showery weather pattern. However, since the low
pressure is weakening, this means that winds should not get much
stronger. The next frontal system that is expected to bring
elevated winds to the Northern Inner Channels will move into the
Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday.

Outer waters: A weakening low pressure system near Middleton Island
is leading to onshore winds this morning. As the low moves
eastward, the strongest winds are anticipated in the Gulf of
Alaska. Winds the Gulf are generally are 15-20 kts, but seas are up
to 10 feet. In the vicinity of the low, expect winds to approach
20 kts through Tuesday evening. By Tuesday night, the low will
weaken, and this will lead to onshore flow generally less than 15
kts. As another low pressure system and front moves into the Gulf
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Musall
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...ZTK

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