756
FXAK68 PAFC 021421
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Today through Wednesday)...
Today through Tuesday will be very similar to the past few days
with very cold temperatures and clear skies across the region.
Similar temperatures in tonight as well as persistent winds along
the Gulf coast means that the cold weather advisories for the
Copper River Basin and along the Gulf coast and Prince William
Sound areas have been extended into Tuesday morning. One notable
change is that winds are likely to increase through the Alaska
Range passes in the Copper Basin tonight which will drop wind
chills, especially along the Tok Cutoff, potentially to 55 below
zero.
While persistence has been the main theme the past few days,
there are some small changes that are beginning to show up on
Wednesday which will (spoiler alert) lead to warmer temperatures
by late in the week. Short-waves dropping out of the Arctic will
lead to development of a closed upper low and amplification of the
trough currently over the eastern Bering Sea. The result will be a new
low center that moves into the Gulf, leading to a shift to
southerly steering flow. This could bring a return to clouds and
snow showers by Wednesday for the Gulf coast and Prince William
Sound regions. There remains a good bit of disagreement between
models with how far west these clouds and snow showers will
propagate. The GFS model is the farthest west solution with most
of Prince William Sound and the central and eastern Copper River
Basin being impacted. The EC model is farther east to the point
that even Cordova would see little to no snow. The NAM solution
was close to the EC solution yesterday, but is trending farther
westward with subsequent model runs.
However it works out, this will allow some moderation of
temperatures, with a very gradual warming trend over the next few
days.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...
A very consistent and resilient pattern remains in place across
the Bering and Southwest, with much below average temperatures and
cold, northeasterly flow still dominating the broader picture.
Very cold and clear conditions remain in place across Southwest,
where wind chill values in the -10s to -30s are once again common.
Unlike the past few mornings, temperatures have not been
undershooting model guidance across the Kuskokwim Delta. The
slightly warmer temperatures coupled with weaker winds compared to
yesterday are causing wind chill values to be about 5 to 10
degrees warmer than this time yesterday, mostly in the -30s. A
Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for the area until 1 pm this
afternoon, but the worst of the combination of wind and cold
temperatures appears to be ending.
Across the Bering and Aleutians, ocean-effect snow showers are
starting to become a bit less widespread as cool temperatures
aloft and steep lapse rates near an upper level low shift off to
the southwest into the North Pacific. Northeast winds in Small
Craft range continue to affect almost the entirety of the the
Bering, supported by cold advection off of the ice edge along
with a tight gradient between a strong Siberian high and North
Pacific low south of the Aleutians. Temperatures in the 10s to 20s
combined with the brisk northeasterlies are supporting areas of
heavy freezing spray close to the ice edge, which is now coming
very close to reaching Saint Paul.
The keyword for the forecast through midweek will be persistence.
Temperatures may rebound ever so slightly compared to the past
few days through Tuesday across Southwest, but the small reprieve
will be short-lived. A deep upper level trough will drive south
into the eastern Bering and Southwest from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, sending another surge of frigid air back into the
region. Low temperatures for Tuesday night into Wednesday night
will fall back into the -10s to -20s once again for all but the
Alaska Peninsula. Across the Bering and Aleutians, northeast winds
will slowly weaken and turn northerly through Wednesday as the
low to the south weakens and heads east while the strong ridge
over Northeast Russia finally begins to erode.
-AS
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...
Upper-level troughing centered over the state mid to late this
week will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. Some model differences in
the position and track of resulting surface lows lifting into the
Gulf will continue to keep the precipitation forecast confidence
below average for the long term. A lean towards the GFS ensembles
brings a shortwave over the Western Aleutians by mid to late week
with a shot of colder temperatures dropping southward out of
Northeast Russia and into the western Bering. A North Pacific low
lifts into the Gulf by Friday morning, bringing increased snow
chances across the northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound
with the potential for snow showers to overspread inland locations
of Southcentral through Saturday. Additionally, strong
northwesterly flow and cold air advection behind the Gulf low will
lead to the potential for strong gap winds across the Barren
Islands and Southern Alaska Peninsula. While forecast confidence
is low with regard to where surface features and precipitation
ultimately develop, forecast confidence is high that both
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below
normal temperatures through the end of this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
&&
$$
614
FXAK69 PAFG 021115
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Our cold weather continues as temperatures remain well below
seasonable norms. We expect to see milder temperatures develop
across the Interior with most of the West Coast and North Slope
seeing a drop in overnight lows through the week. As blizzard
conditions subside across the northeastern Arctic Coast, dry
weather sets in for much of the state through the week. There is a
chance for some snowfall to return to the Interior this weekend,
however accumulations look to remain fairly light with exact
snowfall totals uncertain for now. Otherwise, fairly quiet and
benign weather expected through the week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Another chilly morning is expected on Monday across the Interior
Valleys as overnight lows reach well into the -40s and -50s
before a slight warming trend begins tomorrow night.
- Daytime high temperatures should warm into the single digits
below zero thanks to increasing sun angles and sufficient
daytime heating. For those above 1500ft, expect highs near zero
and lows in the teens below zero.
- Clear and dry conditions should persist through most of the
week, with our greatest chances for snow returning on Friday.
Current model guidance suggests light snow accumulations with
exact snowfall totals through the weekend uncertain this far
out. We will continue to monitor conditions as we approach the
weekend.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Anomalous cold continues across the West Coast with lows in the
-20s and -30s along the coast and the -30s and -40s across the
Western Interior.
- Northerly winds are expected to increase overnight into Monday
through Tuesday afternoon, with sustained winds between 20-25
mph, gusting to 40-45 mph at times. Minor blowing snow
conditions may develop due to plenty of fresh snow on the ground
across the Seward Peninsula. A Winter Weather Advisory was
issued for Brevig Mission in effect now through Monday evening.
- Milder temperatures are expected for the Western Interior
beginning Tuesday, while parts of the West Coast near the
Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue should expect to see overnight
lows in the -20s through the week.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Blowing snow and blizzard conditions are rapidly deteriorating
across the northeastern Arctic Coast and winds rapidly die down
overnight. Visibilities have already seen significant
improvement from 1/4 miles to around 2 miles in the last few
hours.
- Lingering snow showers will continue through the morning across
the Arctic Coast, with much of the snowfall ending by Monday
afternoon. Another brief burst of snowfall is expected to impact
the northeast Arctic Coast early morning Tuesday, with an
additional 2" possible through the day.
- Skies are expected to clear quickly following the snow showers
allowing for temperatures to drop significantly Monday night.
Overnight lows will be in the -30 and -40s, with daytime highs
in the negative teens and -20s during the day.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Practically no change in the upper level pattern today as we
continue to see cold northerly flow thanks to an upper level ridge
over Siberia and an upper level trough over the Canadian
Archipelago. This however will start to change very soon, as that
trough to our northeast finally begins to retreat further east
into the Beaufort Sea. In its place, an upper level low tracks
southwestward and situates itself over the Western Interior. As
this new trough begins to strengthen throughout the early parts of
next week, our upper level Siberian ridge also makes its own
retreat west leaving us with broad large scale troughing over much
of the state by Wednesday. At the surface, we expect to see high
pressure gradually weaken throughout the week, as a series of lows
make their way into the Gulf of Alaska. With all of this in mind,
this new pattern should allow us a brief respite from active
weather before a more active pattern begins to set in this
weekend.
The main story for the week will be cold and dry conditions for
much of the state beginning Monday evening. 850 mb temperatures do
climb about 10C allowing our lows to warm up to the -20s and -30s
across the Interior. As for the West Coast and North Slope, we
expect to see an opposite trend towards colder temperatures, with
lows in the - 20s along the coast and -30s and -40s across the
North Slope. Daytime highs should remain fairly similar across the
state due to increased sun angles and daylight. Blizzard
conditions along the northeast Arctic Coast will see significant
improvement overnight into Monday as winds continue to quickly die
down. Lingering snow showers are likely across the Arctic Coast
through Monday morning, but should resolve by the early afternoon
hours. There is still a chance for some moderately strong winds to
blow through the Bering Strait overnight Sunday into Monday, but
model guidance has backed off quite a bit in the recent days. The
strongest signal remains within the GFS showing a 4 mb gradient,
but other models such as the ECMWF, NAM, and CMC continue to point
towards only a 2 mb gradient. Blowing snow and reduced visibility
impacts are still possible to occur given all the fresh blowable
snow on the ground across the Seward Peninsula, so we went ahead
and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Brevig Mission in effect
now through Monday evening.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Looking towards midweek, broad scale upper level troughing sets up
over the state with a northern Pacific high to our south. This
pattern will help to keep most of the active weather to our south as
a series of surface low pressure systems make their way into the
Gulf of Alaska. The first of these lows seem to be pretty weak, with
the strongest of them arriving sometime Friday. Models are picking
up a signal for some warmer air and moisture to move north and into
the Interior, bringing back the chance for some light accumulating
snowfall. Exact snowfall amounts are undetermined right now but
models seem to be in good agreement with any accumulations being
pretty light. Temperatures across the Interior have the chance to
rise into the single digits and teens above zero, but it all depends
on how that low moves keeping forecast uncertainty high right now.
Once the surface low tracks further east into the Canadian Yukon by
Sunday, surface high pressure over Siberia slowly starts to creep
and build back in. Depending on how far east this high sets up, it
could bring temperatures back up closer to their seasonable norms,
as well as also strengthening northerly winds through the Bering
Strait. Given how far out this is right now, uncertainty remains
high with how this will all play out. For now, it looks like there`s
a light at the end of the tunnel as we head into the weekend.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-816-817-850-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
&&
$$
Santiago
100
FXAK67 PAJK 021425
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
525 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
- Moderate snowfall continues across the SE AK panhandle into
Monday. Multiple warnings and advisories remain in effect across
parts of the panhandle for additional snow accumulations up to
3 inches through Monday morning.
- Additional winter weather products have been issued for a follow
up snow event Monday night into Tuesday. Heavier snow is
expected to impact the central panhandle, with potentially
lighter snow north of Angoon depending upon the track of the
system.
- More active weather pattern lasts through the rest of the week
and into the weekend as systems continue to move into the Gulf.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Precipitation continues
across the panhandle from Gustavus and Juneau southward. The
rain/snow line currently stretches from south of Wrangell to just
south of Sitka and has not moved all that much overnight. South
of that line, rain is the predominate ptype at sea level, but the
inland areas on the Prince of Wales Island highways likely are
seeing snow based on air temperatures from RWIS sites at Hollis
Highway, and Harris River Pass. North of the snow, outflow winds
continue down Lynn Canal, out of Cross Sound, and out of the
passes E of Yakutat. Lynn Canal in particular is still blowing
around min gale force this morning and will likely stay at that
strength through the day.
The next 24 hours mainly features a short break in between the
current system and the onset of the next system late Monday night.
Last night`s precipitation should be diminishing through the
morning as the upper level disturbance that supported it moves
into Canada. The surface trough and arctic boundary are not really
going anywhere though so while the intensity of the precip will
diminish, it will not go away entirely so expect at least light
precip to stick around into tonight over the central and southern
panhandle before the next system starts to enter the area late
tonight into Tuesday. The arctic boundary meanwhile is not
expected to move all that much through tonight except for a
slight northward drift that could move it far enough to get
Petersburg, Wrangell and Kake into a mix of precip rather then all
snow.
Wind concerns will mainly be outflow winds across the northern
channels and gulf coast. These winds are expected to show a slight
diminishing trend through this afternoon as the surface trough
over the eastern gulf and panhandle weakens. However, the outflow
will then ramp back up tonight and become stronger by Tuesday as
the pressure gradient tightens due to falling SLP across the
eastern gulf and Panhandle due to the next system starting to move
in. Expect min to moderate gales down Lynn Canal, out of Cross
Sound, and out of the passes east of Yakutat by late Monday night.
Farther south, frontal winds from the SE will be the concern
tonight, but they will not be nearly as strong as the outflow
farther north, only expected to top out at 25 to 30 kt by late
Monday night.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through this weekend/...Onshore southwesterly
to westerly flow and upper level shortwaves will work to keep
systems moving into the panhandle, with the current active weather
pattern lasting through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
The next system to move in after the Tuesday system will be
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a low moves NE into the
Gulf before looking to move up into the N coastline, through models
are not showing much confidence on the exact position or trajectory
of the low as it moves in with plenty of spread across the
ensembles. Despite the spread on the low positions for both this
system and the next moving in Friday into Saturday, there is some
agreement on the low center staying further westward, between south
of Yakutat to the NW Gulf near Kayak Island. It seems that some of
the lack of model agreement in the long term is related to the
strength of the upper level ridge over the Gulf and SE AK. This is
especially impacting the current model agreement on the next
impactful system Friday into Saturday, with nearly half of the
ensemble clusters pushing for a more SW-ly flow aloft with the low
pushing in more directly into the NE Gulf and closer to the
panhandle, and half suggesting a solution of the low remaining
further west towards Anchorage with the stronger upper level ridging
over the Gulf and the trough staying a bit further westward. The
models appear to show more confidence for the cooling trend this
weekend as the low center begins to bring some colder air down and
across the Gulf into the panhandle, regardless of the positioning of
the low center being a bit further west, with a more zonal to almost
NW-ly flow setting up aloft.
The lack of model agreement and overall spread between the two main
solutions are making some of the precipitation amounts uncertain at
this time, particularly for Yakutat as the position of the low
Thursday will make a difference in how much snowfall they receive.
Overall QPF amounts are not looking too impactful for Wednesday
through Friday, but the Friday into Saturday system may bring a bit
more precipitation. The continued warming trend Thursday through the
early weekend will begin to transition more of the central panhandle
to rain, and transition the northern panhandle to more of a wintry
mix with the warmer onshore flow. Not as much snow accumulation for
this reason, even as QPF amounts look to be higher for the Friday /
Saturday system, due to the warmer temperatures and wet bulb
temperatures and higher snow levels pushing in across the N
panhandle.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 14z Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway, continue to
enjoy VFR, with northerly outflow winds gusting to 30 to 50 knots
in Lynn Canal. Not expecting that to change Monday. The Icy
Strait Corridor south toward Dixon Entrance is currently seeing
IFR from a combination of snow and/or low ceilings. Snow line is
near PAPG/PAWG, with rain being reported south. IFR will continue
through the morning, either from snow or low ceilings, especially
in the central Panhandle TAF sites like PAPG and PAWG. Conditions
will slightly improve in the afternoon as heavier snow showers
fizzle out. This reprieve will be short lived as Monday night a
more extensive plume of moisture will move in from the southwest,
bringing IFR snow back to the central region, with heavier snow
lifting north through Tuesday morning.
There remains a possibility of a few hours of freezing rain
Monday and Monday night in the central Panhandle as the rain/snow
line shifts north. Current forecast has Wrangell seeing this
threat near 20z Monday afternoon, with Sitka near 06z Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Inner Channels: Outflow winds remain the primary concern for inner
channels mariners. Lynn Canal still features min gale force winds
this morning and gusty winds are being observed out of Cross
Sound, the passes E of Yakutat and Taku Inlet. Slight diminishing
trend expected today where outflow winds will likely decrease by
about 5 to 10 kt by afternoon, but they will start to ramp back up
Monday night with min to moderate gales expected down Lynn Canal,
and out of Cross Sound by Tuesday morning with gusty winds in the
usual outflow areas of the north. Seas will also be on the rise
with northern areas seeing 4 to 6 ft seas. However, the long fetch
down Lynn Canal will likely lead to higher seas in southern Lynn
and northern Chatham (likely building up to 10 to 11 ft by Tuesday
morning). Freezing spray will also be a problem for the northern
channels with heavy freezing spray likely for northern Lynn this
morning and tonight. In the southern channels, southerly winds
will dominate with mostly 15 to 20 kt winds through Monday
evening. These winds will increase to 25 to 30 kt by Tuesday
morning as the next front starts to move in.
Gulf waters:
Outflow out of Cross Sound and the passes along the northern gulf
coast continue to plague the northern gulf this morning. Those
winds are expected to diminish somewhat this afternoon, but will
start ramping back up tonight and are expected to be stronger.
Expect moderate gale force winds out of Cross Sound by Tuesday
morning while equivalent gusts will likely be observed out of the
interior passes along the northern gulf coast. Areas south of 57N
will see more frontal driven winds out of the E and S especially
tonight with 25 to 30 kt winds at max as the front moves W to E.
Seas are mostly 7 ft or less (with a SW swell of around 2 to 5 ft
at 11 sec) except in the outflow areas where seas could be as high
as 9 ft. Highest seas still expected to be in the outflow areas
which could reach as high as 14 ft Tues morning.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night
for AKZ320>325-327.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ323-
327.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ326.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST early this morning for
AKZ328-329.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-643-644-663-664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>034-036-053-641-642-651-661-
662-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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