959
FXAK68 PAFC 201341
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKST Tue Jan 20 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Weather conditions across Southcentral will remain rather quiet
over the next several days thanks to a stagnant upper-level ridge
of high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. With
most of Southcentral west of the ridge axis, the south-southwesterly
flow upstream is resulting in several weak waves moving over the
region. These features, however, are bringing only periodic cloud
cover to the Southcentral Mainland. For Kodiak Island and the
northwestern Gulf, a wave moving through this morning will
continue to produce a few showers through the afternoon hours.
The challenge in the short term for Southcentral will continue to
be the extent of fog and low stratus for typical valley and
coastal locations. The extent of any low clouds and/or fog will be
highly dependent on the timing in breaks in the higher cloud
cover, with any significant clearing during the overnight and
early morning hours likely aiding to fog development due to the
combination of a strong inversion (warm air aloft over colder air
near the surface) and radiational cooling at the surface.
The cloud cover and extent of fog/stratus will also have a
significant effect on overnight low temperatures the next couple
of nights. However, it does look like a general cooling trend is
in store through midweek as the high cloud cover should be less
moving into midweek. The exception to this will be in the
mountains, where warmer air aloft will keep temperatures in the
mid 30s to low 40s.
A surface ridge builds into the interior as well today, as a weak
surface trough develops over Prince William Sound. The result will
be an increased pressure gradient leading to a slight uptick in
gap winds along the coast later today through at least Wednesday
evening.
-TM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday night)...
With high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska extending north across
the mainland of the state, a series of gale to storm force lows
will lift across the central and western Aleutians, bringing
primarily rain with the exception of the furthest west islands
(Attu, Shemya). The first of these lows is a storm-force system
already lifting into the Bering Sea this morning. A corridor of
storm-force winds just east of Atka will push north into the
central and northern Bering Sea by this afternoon. Warm air
associated with this low will cause precipitation to be mostly
rain, though if the front pushes as far west as Shemya today,
colder air wrapping around the west side of the low will lead to
some snow. Further east, weak shortwaves lifting across the
Alaska Peninsula into Southwest Alaska today will bring isolated
light showers of mixed precipitation type. Temperatures today will
generally be above freezing, meaning this falls mostly as safely
snow or rain. However, localized areas remaining below freezing
may experience a brief period of freezing drizzle or freezing
rain, but accumulations would be no more than a trace.
As surface high pressure builds west over Southwest Alaska
tonight, trace amounts of precipitation trend down to virtually
nothing, especially by Wednesday. This will be fortunate as
cold northerly winds intensify near the surface while above
freezing temperatures remain aloft, which would cause more
significant freezing rain if precipitation were to fall in this
environment. High pressure, however, will keep things dry at least
into Thursday. Out west, a second low pushes another front into
the western and central Aleutians as early as tonight, bringing
storm force south to southeasterly winds and the potential for
some brief snowfall (an hour or two) on the leading edge of the
front. Precipitation quickly turns to rain, though, as a tongue of
warm air quickly moves north. In the colder air mass moving in
behind the front over the western Aleutians, some snow showers
will be possible on Wednesday in combination with strong southerly
gales. Precipitation wanes for a period of time in the evening as
the front remains west of the Pribilof Islands before the warm
front of a third low reintensifies rainfall over the central
Aleutians on Wednesday night. The third low will be the warmest of
all the systems this week, meaning high confidence for nearly all
rain along the Aleutian Chain as the low tracks toward Attu
through Friday.
Quesada
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Confidence remains high for high pressure to persist across the
state into the weekend. While much of the mainland will experience
dry and quiet weather, there continues to be a strong signal for
persistent upper level troughing over Kamchatka and the Western
Bering Sea through the period. Several shortwaves and accompanying
surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and into the
western Bering, keeping unsettled and active weather mainly
confined to the Western and Central Aleutians. Each wave will move
in succession through the Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing
multiple rounds of potentially storm force winds and precipitation
through the weekend into early next week.
The upper level ridge looks to retreat to the northwest towards
eastern Siberia and the northern Bering by the end of the weekend.
This leads to a shift in the storm track and disturbances lifting
out of the North Pacific and into the Gulf, bringing more active
weather across the AKPen and coastal Southcentral. Heading into
early next week, model spread begins to grow but ensemble means
remain consistent in a trough digging south across the interior,
bringing increased precipitation chances and cooler temperatures
across inland Southcentral locations.
JH
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Light and variable winds under 10 kts will prevail through
the TAF period. With narrow dewpoint depressions near the surface
in conjunction with the light winds, the setup is conducive to
low stratus and fog formation. With ridging and a strong inversion
overhead, this will be the case over the next few days.
&&
$$
790
FXAK69 PAFG 201543
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
643 AM AKST Tue Jan 20 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather persists across Alaska this week as high
pressure and ridging remain overhead. The few exceptions to the
benign conditions will be across portions of the West Coast and
North Slope where periodic chances exist for light snow and windy
conditions. Well above normal temperatures for this time of year
continue with highs ranging from the teens to mid 30s. Coldest
spots are in Interior valleys and low lying areas while higher
elevations above the inversion and along the west coast have the
best chance of getting above freezing. Added a Special Weather
Statement for the West Coast to account for the possibility of a
wintry mix or rain within scattered upslope snow showers. Periods
of blowing snow and gusty winds are likely over the Arctic coast
today then again Thursday into Friday as a few systems ride over
the ridge. Watching later this weekend into early next week for a
brief cool down back below zero for much of the region.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Well above normal temperatures continue with highs in the teens
and 20s. Coldest spots remain in the valleys, warmer at higher
elevations.
- Fog and low stratus to continue in interior valleys
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Mild with widespread high temperatures in the 20s to low 30s
continue for the next several days.
- Mainly dry, but a few snow showers and potentially some freezing
drizzle along south-facing slopes Tuesday and Wednesday,
especially around Nome and southern facing slopes
- More widespread precipitation moves into West and NW Coast
Thursday into Friday. Rain may mix in at times with temperatures
rising above freezing.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Increasing easterly winds along the Arctic coast with gusts to
30 mph at times. Visibility may decrease at times due to blowing
snow.
- Warming trend through the week with highs ranging from the teens
to lower 30s
- More widespread snow expected Friday for the North Slope
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this morning shows a strong ridge over the
state, diverting the storm track around the Bering and up over the
high arctic. Despite southerly flow across the interior, surface
high pressure has kept a strong surface inversion in place,
keeping valleys significantly colder than surrounding areas and
low fog and stratus trapped at the surface. Fog and low stratus
continues for these areas over the next several days as high
pressure remains with light winds and little change in airmass to
mix out that lower layer. Subtle differences in topography/elevation
of as little as 100ft agl can mean the difference between 10-20
degrees and sunny skies or stuck under the low clouds.
High pressure becomes centered over the West tomorrow into the
end of the week switching low level flow around to the north
across the interior, decreasing downsloping flow off the Alaska
range and helping 850mb temperatures cool slightly. This should
weaken the inversion, potentially helping areas stuck under low
clouds to clear out. Stronger low level southerly flow today keeps
moisture and higher clouds streaming northward from the Pacific,
but as this shuts off tomorrow, expect a clearing trend for mid
and upper level clouds as well.
A weak frontal boundary along the north slope increases NE winds
along the Arctic coast today to 10-20 mph with gusts as high as
30-35 mph. Brief reductions in visibility due to blowing snow are
possible at times.
While the main storm track has shifted well to the west around the
ridge, the west coast remains in a southerly flow pattern with
weak disturbances riding up the ridge. A weak shortwave along a
front extending east from a low in the Bering may increase snow
shower activity along southern facing slopes on the Seward
Peninsula and in the western Brooks range today. With strong warm
air advection, rain/freezing rain may mix in at times along the
Seward Peninsula. Most precipitation should be confined to upslope
favored areas, with locations further away from higher mountains
likely to remain warmer and drier.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
High pressure remains in place over the Interior mid to late
week; however a pattern change is on the horizon. By the end of
the week, longer range guidance has been consistent in showing a
strong storm system developing and moving along the top of the
ridge in the Chukchi sea and high arctic. This system will have
numerous impacts to sensible surface weather and the overall
weather pattern. While confidence is lower on the finer details,
confidence is increasing that a strong system pushes eastward near
the arctic coast Thursday into Friday bringing a period of strong
winds, low visibility, and widespread snow to the NW Coast and
North Slope...with deteriorating conditions possibly as far south
as the Seward Peninsula depending on how the storm system evolves.
The rest of the interior remains relatively quiet in the extended
with temperatures slowly cooling down this weekend.
This system impacts the anomalously strong ridge in place over the
week, creating a weakness along the top of the ridge, allowing a
deep trough over NW Canada to push westward into the Interior of
Alaska this weekend. High confidence exists in this pattern
change by the weekend with a much colder airmass advecting in with
850mb temps back into the -20s once again. The ridge aloft
becomes centered over the Bering and Siberia as troughing takes
hold of the state. A few day period of temperatures in the 0 to
-30 range are likely, especially for the Eastern Interior where
the core of the colder air will be. Mild, above average
temperatures hold on a few days long along the west coast, before
the arctic airmass pushes west. Expect northerly gap winds to
significantly increase across much of the state this weekend as
strong high pressure sets up over the high arctic behind the late
week system.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
048
FXAK67 PAJK 201746
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
846 AM AKST Tue Jan 20 2026
.UPDATE.../to add the 18z aviation discussion/...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Decent break in weather for much of the region through most of
the week.
- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog,
most likely in the morning hours.
- Active weather returns by late weekend, with rain for most of
the panhandle. Accumulating snow possible for the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM...The main forecast challenge for the short term
continues to be the presence of fog across portions of central
and southern panhandle this morning. Drier, northerly outflow
across have dissipated most of the fog near Juneau and the Icy
Strait Corridor, with the Freezing Fog Advisory being cancelled
for these areas. As you head south, fog and low stratus remain,
but on a lesser scale then the previous morning. Dense Fog and
Freezing Fog Advisories continue for portions of the central and
southern panhandle. Fog/stratus is currently thickest across
Frederick Sound and into Kake and Petersburg. Outflow winds will
will slowly funnel in drier air into central/southern, with
fog/low stratus likely dissipating this afternoon. Patchy fog
could develop tonight, but again, on a lesser scale than this
morning. Otherwise, dry conditions with passing high clouds
expected through the short term with high pressure dominating.
Gusty winds again expected for Haines and especially Skagway as
the gradient strengthens. Have lowered temps this morning as
clearing has allowed for efficient radiational cooling. Also
lowered high temps slight across the south due to limited mixing.
.LONG TERM...Mid range pattern remains consistent; an amplified
ridge will remain in place over southeast, with the axis
stretching into southcentral AK. This feature will continue to
block large systems from making landfall over southeast, with a
cool arctic airmass dominating the Yukon and B.C. territories
driving outflow for the inner channels. Magnitude of outflow winds
looks to remain below gale force for the most part with the
exception of gale force gusts for localized areas like Taku Inlet
and perhaps Taiya. By the weekend, a prominent system in the far
southwest gulf will push some moisture into southeast bringing
light precipitation and increasing wave energy along the coast.
Though there is still lots of spread between models, overall
guidance suggests a small upper level disturbance moving into the
eastern gulf Saturday night. The resulting surface inflection
looks to send a front into the panhandle through Sunday, bringing
widespread precipitation back to the panhandle into Monday. This
system has the possibility of bringing gale force winds along the
outer coast, with strong gusts pushing up into the channels. The
pressure gradient in the northern panhandle will attempt to keep
strong northerly outflow winds through Lynn Canal as the low moves
inland. Temperatures will be the more uncertain part of the
extended forecast, as outflow during the week bringing cooler
temperatures southward will be combating the southerly onshore
flow associated with the low. CPC guidance suggests overall
warming temperatures next week with the more active weather, but
due to the weakening outflow winds persisting in Lynn Canal,
northern panhandle communities still have a chance to see this
precipitation fall as snow before most likely changing over to
rain by early next week. Precipitation still looks to remain on
the lighter side of what is typical for Southeast Alaska, though
continued onshore flow and another potential broad low following
behind should keep relatively consistent precipitation in the
forecast for next week.
&&
.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Wednesday/...A northerly outflow wind
pattern is in place, which is bringing breezy/gusty conditions
through the 24-hour TAF period for the northeastern Panhandle/Lynn
Canal region sites, including PAGY & PAHN. Winds elsewhere across
Southeast Alaska are on the lighter side as the the SFC pressure
gradient is much more relaxed. As far as CIGs and VISs are
concerned, VFR flight conditions are expected for most areas
through the period. The exception looks to be the PAPG area, which
will see LIFR category conditions from dense FG through this
morning, improving to VFR. Then, tonight, conditions for PAPG
look to deteriorate again for several hours. LLWS values continue
to be rather benign through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Lighter outflow winds continue across
most of the inner channels today, with the exception being Lynn
Canal and Taku Inlet, which could see moderate to strong breezes
through tonight as the gradient tightens. Pockets of dense fog
continue across portions of central/southern inner channels this
morning, but looks dissipate by this afternoon. The outflow
continues to build across the inner channels through the week with
speeds of strong breezes to near- gale force. One benefit of
outflow will help limit fog potential as we move through the week.
Mariners should continue to watch for fog development in
protected bays and inlets.
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to
bring fairly benign marine conditions across the outside waters.
Winds and seas looks to increase by late week and into the weekend
as a series of low pressure systems push north into the Gulf
waters. Outflow winds also look build through the week, with
fresh to strong breezes coming out of Cross Sound by Friday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ321-326-327.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ328-330.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP/ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...DS
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