170
FXAK68 PAFC 091326
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...
Two separate upper level systems, one over Southwest and the
other over the Gulf, are beginning to interact with one another
this morning. The main result of this interaction across
Southcentral is yet another unseasonably wet May morning for much
of the region. Multiple bands of rain are now moving along a
deformation zone situated between a trough moving near the western
Alaska Range and the low drifting north into the Gulf. Rain and
high elevation snow is also spreading into the northern Gulf Coast
and Prince William Sound along and ahead of the low`s occluded
front. A few spots have even managed to switch over to wet snow
even near sea level given seasonably cool temperatures hanging out
mostly in the 30s, including around Whittier and Portage Valley.
A generally cool, wet and showery pattern will continue for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. Much of the Mat-Su
Valleys and Anchorage will temporarily dry out by this afternoon
as increasing southeast flow leads to more downslope drying on the
leeside of the Chugach Mountains. Generally wet conditions will
persist along the coast as the Gulf low weakens and shifts towards
the Kenai Peninsula through Sunday morning. The low and supporting
upper trough will begin to shear apart as both features continue
to shift northwest into Southcentral towards Sunday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a portion of the upper level low drifting over
Southwest will stretch out and lift northeast as a negatively-
tilted shortwave trough, shifting up the Cook Inlet into the Mat-
Su region by Sunday night. This feature will push another round of
rain showers north from Kenai and Homer up into Anchorage and the
Mat-Su valleys between midday Sunday and Sunday night. Pressure
rises behind both the incoming shortwave trough and the
dissipating low reaching the coast will also help drive another
round of southerly gap winds on Sunday afternoon, most notably
across the Copper River Valley.
Another break in the wet weather over inland areas is expected for
Monday as the upper level shortwave trough continues north into
the Interior and as a transient upper ridge moves in behind it.
Gap winds will also intensify throughout the day as a strong
coastal ridge builds out ahead of a deep low moving across the
Bering Sea. Rain and mountain snow will mostly stay confined to
the coast between the southern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince
William Sound due to increasing southeast winds and upslope flow
along the coastal mountains.
-AS
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday)...
Synoptically speaking, the main feature at hand is an upper level
low slowly moving southward over the Southwest Interior. With it
bringing in colder air aloft, lapse rates have steepened, which
will allow for shower activity to be on the increase this
afternoon. An occluded low moving northward across the Gulf is
interacting with this low in the upper levels by creating a
deformation precipitation band, which will begin to pivot across
the eastern fringes of Southwest Alaska through this afternoon
with rain/snow.
Elsewhere, the main weather players consist of surface high
pressure centered across the eastern Bering, a decaying, remnant
front/trough west of the Pribilofs, and a Kamchatka low pressure
system moving closer to the Western Aleutians.
As we go into Sunday morning, the deformation band of
precipitation looks to continue to move westward across Lime
Village and points southward while the Gulf low nears the Gulf
coast and the upper level low over the Southwest becomes quasi-
stationary. Model guidance Sunday morning also shows convective
showers forming across the Kuskokwim Delta and most of the
Southwest Interior Sunday morning. Temperatures will be cold
enough during the morning hours to support snow showers, but rain
will begin to mix in as surface temperatures warm to near 40F for
Sunday afternoon.
Meanwhile, looking westward, the Kamchatka front moves across the
Western Aleutians with rainfall and gusty winds Sunday morning
through Sunday afternoon. Current thinking is that the front will
be on a weakening trend as it moves across the area, but still
high end small craft with gusts to gale force winds are still
likely from Shemya to Adak. Models show the front weakening
further Monday morning and becoming increasingly elongated as it
does so while the parent low moves southeastward and tracks along
the Aleutian Chain.
-AM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...
Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and
progressive pattern through the long term forecast.
The front from an unseasonable Bering low will generate heavy
rainfall over Eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William
Sound on Tuesday. The low progresses eastward to the AK Pen by
Tuesday morning, south of Kodiak Island Wednesday morning, then
reaching the Gulf overnight Wednesday. Periods of wind and rain
will be generated along the path of the low, including the
Northern Gulf Coast.
An upper level low coming out of Kamchatka arrives in the Bering
Sea Thursday morning and dissipates rapidly. A North Pacific low
travels to the south of the Aluetian Islands. There is little
confidence on the strength or exact track of the system.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Cloud ceilings below 5000 ft expected until ~18Z. Light
rain will continue this morning, becoming showery in the
afternoon. North winds will flip to southerly after 01Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.
&&
$$
359
FXAK69 PAFG 091230
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
430 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of fronts will bring precipitation from south to north
across Alaska this weekend. On Saturday, the Central and Eastern
Interior will see widespread showers. Then, Sunday night into
Monday, a more organized band sweeps across the Western half of
Alaska. Both Saturday and Sunday, thunderstorms will be possible
in the Southern Interior. Strong Winds develop along the West and
North coasts Saturday and remain strong along the North Slope
through Monday. By the start of next week, the pattern shifts to
favor warmer and less active weather.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Chances for precipitation become more widespread across the
Interior through middle parts of the weekend. Precipitation type
should be mostly rain, apart from higher elevations where snow
or a rain/snow mix could occur.
- Gradual warmup is expected throughout the weekend. Maximum
temperatures in the Southern Interior will get close to 60F
Saturday and Sunday, and after a brief dip Monday, the warming
trend should continue.
- Gusty NE winds will continue across the northern Interior today.
The south slopes of the Brooks Range and Dalton Hwy Summits
could get gusts up to 35 mph Saturday night into Sunday.
- A front will passes through the Central Interior Sunday night
bringing gusty southerly winds behind it. Southerly gap winds
through the Alaska Range passes will reach their peak Sunday
night into Monday with gusts up to 40mph.
- There are chances for thunderstorms in the Southern Interior
Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, chances are best near the
AlCan border in the Southeast Interior. Sunday, chances spread
across the middle Tanana Valley.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northerly winds will increase throughout today with gusts up to
30 mph through the Strait by the evening. Winds will start to
diminish overnight before turning southerly behind a front
Monday morning.
- On Monday, the cool, dry air mass over the western half of the
state will be replaced by warm, southerly flow bringing
temperatures into the 50s for the Western Interior and 40s along
the coast. The warming trend continues through next week.
- A front lifts north across Western Alaska Sunday night into
Monday morning, producing a band of precipitation which should
be primarily rain.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Northerly gap winds through the Central Brooks Range passes will
be slightly enhanced Saturday with gusts up to 30 mph. Monday,
winds shift to southerly and briefly gusty in the morning.
- The Central and Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope will see
chances for snow through the weekend. Daily snow accumulations
look to be up to 3 inches in the heaviest places.
- Monday morning, a front brings a band of snow across the Brooks
Range, arriving north of the Range by the afternoon.
Accumulations should be generally less than an inch.
- Northeasterly winds, at times gusty, will gradually increase
across the North Slope through Saturday night. Winds will be
strongest along the Western and Eastern Arctic Coast where winds
peak upwards of 40 mph. Winds will remain elevated through the
start of next week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 525 decameter low over southwest Alaska has been the main
driver of weather this week, but a 528 dam low cruising northward
from the Pacific is here to shake things up this weekend. This
morning, the western half of Alaska continues to be drier and
cooler. In the Interior, there are scattered showers. Along the
north slope there is low stratus. At the surface, high pressure
over the Arctic and low pressure in the Gulf is creating a
gradient across the state which is producing northerly to
northeasterly winds. Through the day Saturday, the Pacific low
will approach the Gulf coast. As it does, winds will strengthen,
slightly over the Interior but more impressively along the Arctic
Coast and through the Bering Strait. It will also advect moisture
into the Interior, resulting in more widespread showers through
Saturday evening. Some of the showers in the southeast Interior
will be thunderstorms.
Sunday, the upper-level low from the Pacific is pulled into the
low over southwest Alaska. As that happens, a band of
precipitation forms from Cook Inlet to the Seward Peninsula. This
is the start of a front that will develop through the day Sunday
and eventually move back north. A ridge will begin to build over
the Panhandle. Winds through the Bering Strait should weaken as
the gradient becomes more zonal. However, winds remain strong
along the Arctic Coast. Temperatures should warm up closer to
seasonally average as southerly flow sets up late Sunday.
On Monday, the upper-level low will extend east to west from the
Western Interior toward a new Low arriving along the Aleutians.
The part of the low over Alaska, will send a front northward through
the Western Interior with an accompanying band of precipitation.
Behind the front, winds in the Interior will be gusty and
southerly. There may be few more thunderstorms in the southern
Interior with these showers as well. Winds along the North Slope
will remain strong and easterly, with areas along the Eastern and
Western Arctic Coast gusting up to 45 mph. Once the last of the
cool air from the Arctic low has passed, the southerly flow
pattern should warm temperatures to near seasonal average.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
General troughiness across the state will continue to allow for
isolated precipitation chances across the Interior today through the
weekend. Temperatures are expected remain on the cooler side with
highs mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s today. This weekend will
likely see increasing temperatures, with some areas possibly
reaching 60. Areas that see a quick warm up may also see quick drops
in RH as well. Minimum RHs are expected to be between 30% and 40%
through the end of the weekend. The lowest humidities are expected
on Sunday where the Tanana Valley could see as low as 25%. Northerly
winds could be gusting as high as 30 mph for areas in the Yukon
Flats and Central Interior today. Thunderstorms may be isolated
today in the SE Interior, especially Eagle, and on Sunday in Tanana
Valley.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning remains in effect through Sunday, for Chalkyitsik.
Latest reports say that 8 homes have flooded and some of them
have now become unaccessible. Waters continue to slowly rise and
are approaching the post office, clinic, and church within the
village.
River Watch reports the Porcupine River at Old Crow is now breaking
up. The ice appears to be very distorted and the water levels in
town is currently low. However, flow remains high in the headwaters.
Over the Chatanika River, the advisory has been shifted west with
the jam moving downstream. As a result, a new group of cabins have
begun to flood just after the hard bend in the river. Water levels
have dropped in the original location of the advisory. A mix of ice
and high water continues for another 20 miles up river, followed by
about 10 miles of open water to Elliot.
Water levels have begun to rise again along the Tanana River at
Manley Hot Springs and another flood watch has been implemented.
Reports from 13:05pm show the levels at 15.06 feet, an increase from
this morning but the levels are starting to slowly drop. In
addition, the landing in the Tanana River has large ice chunks that
are moving quickly.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday to Friday
As an upper level trough moves from the Bering Sea toward the Gulf
of Alaska, southerly gap winds are expected to taper off by Tuesday
morning. Light, isolated showers are still likely for most of
Central and SW Alaska in the form of rain, as surface conditions are
expected to warm into the 50s for this area, though snow is still
possible at higher elevations. All precipitation is expected to be
limited for the Interior into the middle of the week. The low is
expected to reach the Gulf of Alaska around Thursday afternoon, with
a weak ridge building in for NW Alaska. This ridging will likely
restrict any precipitation from occurring.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ852.
Flood Watch for AKZ828.
Flood Watch for AKZ846.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856>858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
JT/EK/SCL
118
FXAK67 PAJK 090612
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1012 PM AKDT Fri May 8 2026
.UPDATE...Aviation update for 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.AVIATION...A low in the GOA will continue to move northward
through the next 24hrs. The associated front wraps around the low
and is sweeping north-northwest over SE AK. This front is brining
widespread rain which will be heavy at times for the outer coastal
areas as well as for areas PAKT S. Primarily MVFR conditions will
prevail throughout the region through tomorrow mid morning,
however, some isolated IFR is expected (due to either ceilings or
visibility). Additionally, with this frontal passage winds will
continue to pick up particularly for the terminals south of the
PAWG-Port Alexander line, where LLWS of +/-25kts will continue
through the overnight hours. LLWS conditions north of the
aforementioned line is expected within the atmospheric column
(SFC-060) but not in the lowest 2000ft (see AAWU forecast for
additional details). A gradual improvement is expected to begin
from the south starting Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...0416PM AKDT Fri May 8 2026
SYNOPSIS...
- Rain and wind return through the weekend, with total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches across SE AK, with winds gusts 35 to 45
mph across the southern panhandle.
- Periods of gale force conditions are likely along the coast
over the weekend. See Marine Section for further info.
SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/...A gale force low lifting north
into the Gulf of Alaska will pull moisture north across southeast
Alaska through the night, along with increasing rain potential.
Multiple fronts/troughs will pivot around the low through Saturday
night, bringing rounds of moderate to potentially heavy rain at
times. On Sunday, as the low lifts north and weakens over the Kenai
peninsula, rain will slowly diminish through Sunday night as onshore
flow weakens and ridging builds into the region. Generally looking
at rain accumulations of 1-3 inches through the weekend, with
upwards of 4 inches possible. Added a slight chance of
thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday from near Cross Sound on
south as there looks to be weak instability as the front pushes
across the panhandle. Additionally, snow levels look to hover
around 3.5-4kft through the period. However, snow levels could dip
down to 3kft across the north and could bring snow or rain/snow
mix near White Pass. A couple rounds of slushy snow accumulations
are possible during the nighttime and and early morning hours.
South to southeasterly winds will increase through Friday night into
Saturday, especially over southern SE AK. Gusts 40-45 mph are
possible late tonight into Saturday afternoon for POW Island,
Annette Island and Ketchikan and a Wind Advisory is in effect.
Breezy winds with gusts 25-35 mph possible for coastal communities
along Icy Strait corridor down to Sumner Strait, with lighter. A
diminishing trend then expected Sunday into Sunday night as the low
pushes away and the gradient relaxes.
Seasonable temperatures will continue with highs in the upper 40s to
mid 50s and nighttime lows generally in the 40s, both warmest across
the south.
LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/... Rain continues into the
week across the panhandle, improving to showery and light
conditions. There is a period mid-day Monday where conditions
could improve to little or no precipitation due to a ridge
building over the panhandle after the low pressure system jumps on
land in the western gulf. However, PoP and QPF are anticipated to
increase again as a front associated with a low in the Bering Sea
sweeps across the panhandle on Tuesday. This precipitation is
more likely to stay concentrated in the northern and central
panhandle, however, the southern panhandle could see at least
overcast conditions and showers. Winds are currently not foreseen
to be an issue for this time period across the panhandle, except
for Yakutat, which could see breezier conditions as the front
passes through.
AVIATION...A low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing
deteriorating flight conditions to IFR and Ceilings at or below 1000
ft across the Panhandle. While LLWS concerns are for the southern
TAF sites, rain and gusty winds will be widespread for Southeast
Alaska. As the low system approaches land after 18z Saturday, the
system should weaken and lead to at least some improvement in
flying conditions to MVFR.
MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): A front is currently pushing north through
the panhandle brining increased southerly winds into the southern
inner channels. As winds increase, they will mainly remain around
fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27 kts. By and large, expect
sustained winds of strong breezes for many locations, with some
favored areas, like Clarence Strait, seeing a few hours of near-
gale force conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. Clarence
Strait and ocean entrances along inner channels have already seen
increased winds around 25 kts with gale force wind gusts. As the low
continues to move northward, winds will continue to increase with
the strongest winds anticipated across the south and east to west
facing channels. Strongest winds are most likely to occur early
Saturday into Saturday afternoon before slowly diminishing. Lynn
Canal into Taiya Inlet will continue to see increased winds around
15 to 20 kts into Sunday after the low moves inland.
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A front is currently making its
way north across the area bringing areas of SE near gale to gale
force wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts across the gulf. This initial front
will reach the northern gulf before the low moves farther north,
once again increasing winds. As the low pushes northward, winds will
continue to increase with sustained gale force winds over the
eastern gulf and outside waters tonight into Saturday. There is even
a chance of low end storm force wind gusts near Cape St. Elias.
Associated with this system is an excellent dynamic fetch
responsible for southerly swell, along with the aforementioned fetch
of southeasterly winds generating large southeasterly wind waves
along the coast. Expect large and confused seas of 15 ft, to
potentially as high as 18 ft, along the majority of our coast, with
the focus of wave energy from the Fairweather Grounds to Cape St.
Elias.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>036-053-641>643-661.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...Butwin
MARINE...EAB
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