902
FXAK68 PAFC 240004
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 PM AKDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A high amplitude 500 mb ridge has built over the Bering,
amplifying the upper level pattern and bringing a weak
northeasterly jet over mainland and Southcentral Alaska. Much of
Southcentral will be clear and relatively calm. However, winds
will become gusty in the Matanuska Valley starting Tuesday due to
a northeast to southwest temperature gradient between the
Matanuska Valley and the Copper River Basin. Confidence in gusty
winds has improved as models further clarify features. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for the Matanuska Valley through
Wednesday afternoon due to the threat of gusty winds up to 55 mph.
Winds will slowly diminish afterwards, but will remain gusty
through Thursday due to a secondary shortwave dropping. The
strongest winds will be oriented toward Wasilla and the Parks
Highway corridor. Valdez and Thompson Pass could also see some
gusty winds over the next few days, though not as strong as the
Matanuska Valley.
Beyond Wednesday, the upper level pattern looks almost steady-
state except the troughing becomes more broad in nature. The one
and perhaps only location to watch for any notable precipitation
would be Kodiak Island in the event one of these more compact Gulf
lows moves closer to the area.
-JAR/CJ
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...
The warming trend and dry conditions will continue over mainland
Southwest Alaska through the short-term period with little change
in the forecast. Troughing in the Gulf of Alaska continues to
persist as does the strong ridge in the central Bering Sea,
allowing for northerly flow and dry air to continue flowing across
Southwest through the short-term.
Gusty northerly gap winds will continue across the Alaska
Peninsula through the short-term as the synoptic pattern persists
as discussed above. Weak forcing due to an upper-level shortwave
dropping south across the Interior will increase snow shower
activity along the Alaska Peninsula beginning tonight through
Tuesday. Similarly, weak cold air advection will result in an
uptick in northerly winds across both the Southwest mainland and
the Alaska Peninsula, with the strongest winds expected Tuesday
evening into Wednesday afternoon.
Farther out west, a stalled front in the western Bering will
continue to dissipate as the parent low continues north into
eastern Siberia. Southeasterly small craft winds associated with
this frontal system across the western Aleutians diminish through
the overnight hours tonight. Light rain chances may linger into
Tuesday afternoon as the best moisture axis shifts east towards
Kiska Island and Amchitka. Due to the strength of the central
Bering ridge, the Central Aleutians (Adak/Atka) look to remain dry
as the front weakens in place to their west. Another front
approaches the western Bering and western Aleutians by Wednesday
evening bringing another round of rain and southeast winds to
Shemya.
-JH
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
The end of the work week will feature a familiar upper-air setup:
a mid-level trough anchored over Southcentral Alaska and strong
upper level ridging dominating the Bering Sea. A broad, meandering
surface low remains in the Gulf of Alaska, though its precise
location is still uncertain. This uncertainty will drive the main
differences along the Gulf Coast -- closer proximity of the new
low to the coast would favor stronger onshore flow, gustier winds,
and heavier precipitation, while a more distant or weaker
position would limit those impacts. Inland portions of
Southcentral, however, are expected to stay comparatively dry with
only light winds. This general pattern shows little evolution
through Monday, with the Gulf low continuing to wander without
significant deepening or organized progression.
In Southwest Alaska, forecast confidence is equally low. The
Bering Sea ridge is anticipated to gradually weaken and break
down through the weekend as an upper-level low approaches from
the west. Model solutions diverge on the associated frontal
system: some depict it slowly advancing across the Bering Sea
domain. There is considerable spread, however, on whether the low
will remain sufficient strength and identity by the time it nears
the Pribilof Islands. Meanwhile, the Southwest Mainland is
forecasted to remain under a persistent cold air mass, with
temperatures staying well below seasonal norms throughout the
period.
-DD
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
&&
$$
542
FXAK69 PAFG 232147
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
147 PM AKDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet weather continues across Northern Alaska, with a
gradual warming trend to near to above average across the area
expected through the week. Today, light snow will be possible
across the central North Slope, although accumulations are not
likely to exceed 1 inch. Tuesday into Wednesday, northwest winds
will pick up across the Interior and YK Delta areas, with gusts up
to 25 to 35 mph, mostly in the higher terrain. Along the western
Arctic, Chukchi Sea, and Bering Strait coasts, gusty south to
southwest winds are expected beginning Tuesday and lasting through
the week while spreading east. Periods of blowing snow will be
possible with the highest winds, especially at Point Hope. From
Thursday into the weekend, temperatures across much of the
Interior and West Coast, especially in valley locations, could
rise into the mid to upper 20s, with some areas potentially rising
above freezing.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to
continue with high temperatures steadily rising into the
twenties in most areas by mid-to-late week and lows rising
into the single digits below zero.
- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 35 mph are expected
for the Interior Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the
higher terrain.
- By this weekend, high temperatures in Interior valleys could
approach freezing, with widespread highs in the mid to upper
20s or warmer possible.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- North/northeast winds gusting as high as 25-35 mph are expected
for the southwestern Interior and YK Delta Tuesday and
Wednesday, especially for the higher terrain. Areas along the
Chukchi Sea coast and Bering Strait could experience south
winds gusting as high as 20 mph.
- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs
in the mid-to-upper twenties by late week and lows rising into
the single digits above zero.
- Patchy dense fog will be possible in the mornings over
portions of the West Coast the next few days, including the YK
Delta, St. Lawrence Island, and Bering Strait coast.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low stratus moving in off the coast could bring light snow
accumulations for the central North Slope, especially
Utqiagvik and Nuiqsut.
- South/southwest winds gusting as high as 45 mph are expected
for the northwest Arctic Coast Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds
will decrease Wednesday night; however they will likely still
gust as high as 25 mph throughout the rest of the week and
expand to the entire Arctic Coast with the highest winds
shifting east.
- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs
in the mid-to-upper teens by late week and lows ranging from
the single digits below to the single digits above zero.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Ridging over the central Aleutians extends northward across
eastern Siberia. General troughing with a couple associated
surface lows predominates over the Gulf of Alaska. Cold mornings
continue across Northern Alaska, with temperatures mostly in the
single digits to twenties below zero. Afternoon highs have been
much warmer than overnight lows in the Interior and across the
West Coast; with plenty of sunshine, temperatures have risen into
the teens and twenties above zero each day, a trend which is
expected to continue into midweek ahead of further warming. Light
snow will be possible on the North Slope today and tonight as a
shortwave moves southward from over the Arctic. Accumulations will
likely remain under 1 inch. The next few mornings will see
chances for patchy dense fog over portions of the West Coast,
although any fog should burn off during the afternoons.
Tuesday into Wednesday, developing high pressure over the eastern
Beaufort Sea will yield a southerly gradient wind over the
western Arctic Coast. These winds could gust as high as 45 mph at
Point Hope and could produce blowing snow at times. Weaker winds
gusting up to about 20 to 30 mph will be possible on the Chukchi
Sea coast and through the Bering Strait. During this same time
frame, northeasterly winds will pick up across the Interior,
especially over elevated areas. Gusts could be as high as 25 to 35
mph. By overnight Wednesday, the northeastern end of the ridge
will bend well to the east under an Arctic trough. This will lead
to temperatures rising across the area heading into the late
week/extended time frame as cold air aloft is finally pushed east
into Canada.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
By Thursday morning, southerly winds across the western half or so
of the Arctic coast will have started shifting to a more westerly
direction. As this occurs, these westerly winds will begin
spreading across the eastern Arctic Coast while weakening over
the Northwest Arctic and Bering Sea coasts, including at Point
Hope. The most significant blowing snow concerns will also shift
east, potentially lasting into the weekend. Northeasterly winds
across the Interior will decline by mid Thursday, with calmer
conditions settling in. Warmer temperatures are expected with
ridging across Northern Alaska during the late week time frame.
Beginning on Thursday, most of Northern Alaska will see highs
climbing into the 20s above zero. The North Slope and higher
elevation areas will likely be slightly cooler and could see highs
in the upper teens, but even these areas are likely to near or
exceed 20F as ridging aloft extends well into the Eastern
Interior. By this weekend, troughing moving east over the Arctic
will bring the potential for snow to the North Slope and Chukchi
Sea coast. Interior valleys could see highs rise to near or above
freezing for the first time in months from this weekend into early
next week. This will coincide with lows across Northern Alaska
generally rising into the negative single digits or higher.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
PK...None.
&&
$$
DS
741
FXAK67 PAJK 240609
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1009 PM AKDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.UPDATE...Update to aviation section to include 6z TAF issuance...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Snow showers continues across the central and southern panhandle
this afternoon but will be on the downward trend this evening
into Tuesday.
- Outflow winds will start to increase Tuesday for the northern
channels and NE gulf coast. Strong gusty winds for downtown
Juneau/south Douglas and Skagway expected for Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Rain and snow showers continue to impact parts of the
panhandle this afternoon. Although the coverage of these showers
has significantly decreased compared to the past few days. These
showers will still bring some accumulating snow to the area but
accumulations will be limited due to the spotty nature of the
showers. With the increasing amount of daylight and sun angle,
temperatures have been able to warm from any nighttime cooling.
With the decreasing potential for showers going into tomorrow as
outflow winds start to increase, areas not moderated by winds
could start to see warmer temperatures. Temperatures will start to
feel more normal with the clearing skies. With the increasing
outflow, winds in the Skagway and Downtown Juneau areas could see
some strong winds with the outflow and potential for some
downslope winds. Current thinking is that wind gusts could range
from 45-50 mph for these areas for Tuesday into Wednesday.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/...
Confidence is increasing for northern panhandle to see drier
pattern continuing with outflow conditions. The southern will
continue to see waves of rain/snow showers through the period a
low lingering off the coast out in the eastern gulf sends multiple
troughs/fronts lifting north through the southern panhandle. In
terms of precipitation, most of the southern panhandle will see
snowfall at nights as low temperatures remain in the low 30s and
as colder air aloft lingers over the area. During the daytime,
much of this will transition to more of a rain snow mix, as
temperatures will increase to the high 30s to low 40s throughout
the week, alongside snow levels raising to 400 to 600 ft by
Friday. These warmer temperatures along with the low QPF amounts
expected will likely not bring as much snow accumulation over the
area, particularly into the end of the week as the southern
panhandle continues to see some warming. By late week, low-end
snow chances return to the north, mainly along Icy Strait corridor
on south, as the drier outflow pattern weakens and we see the
potential for some of the moisture and troughs/fronts across the
south creeping north.
Outflow winds remain largely unchanged in the forecast, with the
continued gusty winds for the Gastineau Channel and Downtown
Juneau with increased confidence in a mountain wave event into
Wednesday. 30 to 40 kt cross barrier flow over Gastineau Channel
and Taku Inlet, alongside a critical level forming at around 500
mb. The conditions overall look favorable for some 15 to 30 kt
winds with gusts up to 45 kt at the peak for downtown Juneau and
southern Douglas. The gusty winds also continue for Skagway and
Klondike highway on Wednesday as the gradient remains tight across
Lynn Canal.
By the end of the week, expect a moderating trend as the gradient
relaxes. High temps across the north will be in the 20s to low
30s on Wednesday, climbing to the 30s by Friday. Across the south,
afternoon highs in the 30s to around 40 on Wednesday, climbing to
the upper 30s to mid 40s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION.../Through 06z Wednesday/...Widespread VFR conditions
with clearing skies and light winds are prevailing through the
panhandle. An organized band of showers is currently pushing
through Juneau, dropping VIS to 1 SM or less with CIGs between
1500 and 3000 ft. The heaviest part of this band looks to have
finally moved out of the area, but lingering low clouds along the
back are continuing snowfall with IFR conditions for a bit longer.
There is a chance for another cell currently moving north through
Stephens Passage to continue snowy conditions for longer, as it is
moving rather quickly towards the downtown area. Conditions are
expected to improve once the remaining snow moves out of the area,
but there is a chance that convection from the mountains on
northern Admiralty continues light snowfall for longer than
anticipated. Moisture aloft looks to leave the area within the
next 3 hours, so anticipating all shower activity and upper level
clouds to move out by then. Some guidance suggests once skies
begin to clear out overnight, a low fog layer may develop, so a
PROB30 group has been included. For other locations across the
panhandle, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
night. There is a band of showers off the coast from Sitka which
is expected to push onshore through the next hour or two, which
could bring MVFR to IFR conditions with lowered CIGs and light
snow showers. Some other locations in the southern panhandle may
experience effects from the edge of this band, including VFR
conditions with high broken to overcast CIGs or the occasional
light shower. This band is not expected to make it too far through
the panhandle as outflow winds begin to develop through Tuesday
morning. Many sites will start to feel winds picking up through
midday Tuesday, though speeds will be strongest in Skagway with
gusts up to 30 kts. Gastineau Channel is expected to experience a
weak mountain wave event with this outflow, which may cause LLWS
around 25 kts from the northeast.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds across the Gulf this
afternoon with moderate to fresh breezes. Wave heights have been
trending around 5-8 ft. Seas are expected to increase with the next
area of low pressure moving across the southern Gulf with wave
heights potentially getting up to 10-14 ft. With the low passing by,
outflow winds are expected to increase through the gaps in terrain.
Winds are expected to increase to gales Tuesday evening as the
outflow conditions continue to strengthen.
Inside (Inner Channels): Conditions for the Inner Channels continue
to vary with light to fresh breezes being reported. With the passing
rain and snow showers, gusty winds have been reported. These winds
are expected to continue before outflow winds start to become the
main issue for the Inner Channels. Winds will increase through
outflow prone channels as a low moving up from the south moves
across the southern Gulf. With the increasing outflow winds, wind
speeds are expected to increase up to gales for Lynn Canal and Taku
Inlet while near gales are possible for Chatham Strait. These
outflow winds are expected to persist through the week as outflow
conditions persist.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday for
AKZ318.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 AM AKDT Wednesday for
AKZ325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-053.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>033-641>644-651-
661>664-671.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...SF
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