939
FXAK68 PAFC 061337
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKST Fri Feb 6 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...
Satellite imagery this morning shows a weak upper level trough
exiting Southcentral as it lifts into the Interior. A shortwave
ridge is building north from the Gulf into Southcentral. Skies
have cleared across much of the region. The exceptions are the
southern and eastern Kenai Peninsula and the western Susitna
Valley where overcast skies prevail in some weak upslope flow.
Temperatures have dropped below freezing where skies have cleared
and are holding just above freezing in cloudy areas.
Meanwhile, a new large vertically stacked low has set up shop in
the northeast Pacific. Numerous shortwaves along the eastern
periphery of the larger trough are rotating northward toward the
Gulf. The leading shortwave and surface low are just about to
enter the southeastern Gulf. These will track westward across the
Gulf today through tonight as the main low in the Northeast
Pacific tracks eastward underneath it. The forecast is largely on
track for a weak front to spread north and west across the Gulf
and then dissipate before it reaches the Gulf coast Saturday. Low
elevation rain and mountain snow will spread onshore of Kodiak
Island and the north Gulf coast overnight tonight through
Saturday. Unlike storms from the past several days, precipitation
will be uniformly light. Some gusty northerly winds will affect
Kodiak Island and the western Gulf. Otherwise, winds over
Southcentral will be light.
A trough digging southward across northern Alaska Saturday through
Saturday night will lead to low level southerly flow over
Southcentral, helping to gradually advect moisture and light
precipitation inland. There could be some mixed precipitation at
the start for the western Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat Valley.
However, as the atmosphere saturates expect a transition to all
snow.
A short-wave trough crossing the Bering Sea will then arrive in
Southcentral Sunday night. Model spread is large on the track and
shape of this trough. Guidance also disagrees on whether this
trough phases with the Interior Arctic trough. Nonetheless,
chances are high that this trough will act upon the moisture in
place and lead to heavier snowfall Sunday night through Monday.
Low level southwest flow favors Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley,
the eastern Susitna Valley, and the Denali Highway to Paxson
corridor up along the Alaska Range for accumulating snow. The best
window for accumulating snow looks to be Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon. Stay tuned, as the uncertainty in the upper
levels leads to low confidence in snow totals at this point in
time. Meanwhile, the arrival of cooler air with the trough will
lead to lowering snow levels for coastal areas, with potential
for snow to get all the way down to sea level by Sunday night or
Monday.
-SEB
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta
for a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain through noon today.
The wave of moisture will lift north of the area this afternoon
allowing Southwest Alaska to see mostly dry conditions through the
weekend; the one exception being possible showers along the SW
coast Sunday morning.
The main weather maker in the forecast comes in the form of a
strong low pressure system moving to just west of Kamchatka by
late Friday night. It will send its front across the western and
central Aleutians through the day Saturday with gale to storm
force winds and moderate precipitation as it marches eastward. A
vigorous trough rotating around the aforementioned parent low will
rapidly deepen and form its owned closed center as it barrels
across the Aleutian Chain near Adak and Atka early Sunday morning.
Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are likely for these communities
as it moves north into the Bering Sea. The Pribilof Islands will
also see a period of high winds Sunday evening, although the
severity of them will be greatly dependent on how far east the
storm tracks. This is followed by an even stronger low crossing
the Aleutians on Monday. Along with strong winds for most of
western Alaska and the Bering Sea, this system will draw up plenty
of moisture and send a front of moderate to heavy snow and mixed
precipitation over Southwest Alaska by Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...
Starting in the Gulf of Alaska, a once complex low pressure system
looks to weaken and open into a trough centered over the Southern
Gulf. The core of energy looks to be exiting to the east by Monday
morning, leaving Southcentral Alaska in a unsettled pattern
through Tuesday morning. Also on Tuesday morning, a front moving
over the Western Alaska Range with some of the model guidance
suggesting a low to form near Kodiak Island then tracking
northeast into mainland Southcentral. Agreement seems fair at this
point for a low to develop. The expected track into Southcentral
may shift, with the general expectation currently being the low
moving over Kenai Tuesday night. A subsequent front moving over
the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday, may develop another low pressure
system near Kodiak again by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Progression of this system is still uncertain, with some solutions
intensifying the low in the northern Gulf through Thursday night.
Looking out west, several low pressure systems associated with the
aforementioned frontal boundaries will enter the Bering Sea early
next week. By Monday morning, the first low pressure system
appears to be located over the Central Bering, with the
best estimated position being just west or east of the Pribilof
Islands. By Monday afternoon, the low may shift northward with
some solutions bringing a slightly weakened feature into Southwest
Alaska. At the same time, a new stronger low pressure system will
have crossed the Aleutians near Adak. This has potential to
produce another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong
wind gusts in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday morning, model
agreement begins to degrade significantly. Some solutions exit
the low to the northern Bering by Wednesday morning, while some
solutions take the core of the low center directly over Nunivak
Island, which would promote potentially highly impactful weather
for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Greater Southwest coast beginning
as early as Tuesday morning.
Weak agreement for yet another low pressure system entering the
Southwest Bering by Thursday morning.
CL/LM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light, variable winds are expected to
persist through the TAF period.
&&
$$
710
FXAK69 PAFG 061527
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
627 AM AKST Fri Feb 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty southwest winds continue across the Western Arctic Coast,
resulting in blowing snow conditions. Elsewhere, areas of snow
showers continue across Western Alaska, with additional light snow
showers across parts of the Central and Eastern Interior but with
little accumulation expected. Moving into next week, cold air in
place over the North Slope will expand across the Interior. The
deepest cold will be short-lived as a series of fronts/systems
move into the area from over the Bering Sea bringing winds,
snowfall, and warmer temperatures to Northern Alaska.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Interior
through Saturday, with up to 2 inches of new snow possible
primarily north and east of Fairbanks and in the Alaska Range.
- Temperatures will see an overall cooling trend into the weekend,
with coldest locations reaching down into the 10s to 30s
range. Temperatures then warm again next week.
- Moisture from the Gulf of Alaska will lift north Monday,
supporting another round of scattered snow chances.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- East to northeast wind gusts up to 20-40 mph will continue
along the West Coast and across higher elevations of the
Interior through the weekend, locally stronger up to 50 mph from
the NW Arctic Coast southwest through the Bering Straight to
St. Lawrence Island.
- Scattered snow showers will continue across Western Alaska
through the weekend, with up to 2" of additional snow expected.
- Warmer temperatures are expected today, with highs reaching
into the teens/20s, warmest on the Y-K Delta in the 30s.
- Confidence is increasing for a strong Bering Sea low to arrive
Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing widespread snowfall across the
southwestern Interior, the Lower Yukon, and the Norton Sound
Coast and strong northerly winds through the Bering Strait
through midweek.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Very cold and dry conditions will continue across the North
Slope through the weekend, with air temperatures in the 20s to
40s below zero as wind chills drop to as cold as 60F.
- Gusty winds on the Arctic Coast will be mostly confined to the
Western Arctic Coast through the weekend.
- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Point Lay due to strong
winds creating a shallow layer of blowing snow.
- The cold and dry pattern is expected to continue until the
middle part of next week. Southwest flow will lead to warming
temperatures and increasing snow chances.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
General ridging extends across northwestern Canada into
southeastern Alaska, with troughing and very cold air over the
Canadian Archipelago extending southwest into northeastern Alaska.
This cold airmass is yielding cold surface temperatures in the
30s across much of the North Slope. There is a 1040 mb surface
high (and additional high pressure aloft) over the the Arctic
northwest of Alaska driving southeast winds across the Western
Arctic coast, resulting in blowing snow conditions. Troughing
(and an associated 990 mb surface low) over the southeastern
Bering Sea is bringing areas of snow showers to the southwestern
Interior and adjacent coastal areas as it shifts northwest.
Additional light snow showers are occurring across parts of the
Central and Eastern Interior, although accumulations will likely
remain limited.
Heading into tonight and tomorrow, the Bering Sea
low will degenerate into an open wave and most snow in Northern
Alaska should be coming to an end. This will coincide with the
Arctic airmass over northwestern Canada shifting southwest, with
troughing extending into Central Alaska and 850 mb temperatures in
the 20s Celsius becoming widespread. This combined with clearing
in many areas will allow for surface temperatures to broadly fall
into the 20s and 30s F across the Interior beginning Sunday
night. Sunday night into the extended time frame will see some
wrap-around moisture pulled around the eastern Alaska Range with a
low over southern Alaska, which will bring snow first to the
southeastern Interior Monday morning before shifting it northwest.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through Thursday.
Heading into early next week, the cold air mass over Northern
Alaska will deepen a bit while extending farther west. This will
allow for nighttime temperatures in the Interior to fall by a few
degrees, with the Yukon Flats potentially seeing lows in the 40s.
Snow over the southwestern Interior early Monday morning will
likely overspread the Alaska Range, most or all of Fairbanks North
Star Borough, and the Fortymile Country by mid-Monday afternoon.
Snow in the Alaska Range could potentially total several inches,
with up to a few inches in the Interior. By Monday afternoon, a
southeast-to-northwest-oriented front will have shifted into the
northern Bering Sea south of St. Lawrence Island, which could
produce gusty winds in coastal locations.
In the wake of this front is the most significant event in the
extended time frame: A strong low will move into the Bering Sea by
Tuesday evening, potentially producing easterly gales on its
leading edge along with bringing widespread cloud cover,
snowfall, and warmer temperatures to most of Alaska north of the
Alaska Range. There are significant differences in model prognosis
for strength, track, and timing. Ensembles guidance suggests that
as the low approaches the Alaska coastline, it could take a more
southerly track into the Kuskokwim Delta-to-Bristol Bay area, or
it could track as far north as the Yukon Delta. ECMWF and GEFS
ensemble members favor the former solution while CMC members favor
the latter. Regardless of exact track, the low will weaken from
its peak in the southern Bering by the time it reaches the
coastline, which occurs sometime between early Wednesday afternoon
and late Thursday morning under most scenarios. From Tuesday
onward, winds could also rise inland, especially over the higher
terrain, as well as over the Western Arctic Coast. Blowing snow
will be possible in areas where recently-fallen or actively
falling snow is present.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805-807>809-816-817-851-854>856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&
$$
DS
197
FXAK67 PAJK 061501
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
601 AM AKST Fri Feb 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Areas of fog, with visibilities below 1 mile, continue over the
Icy Strait Corridor near Gustavus and Juneau early this morning.
- Active weather has returned this morning, with isolated wind
gusts up to 35 mph possible for Ketchikan, Annette Island, S
Clarence Strait, and SE Prince of Wales Island.
- After an organized band of rain this morning, wide spread rain
showers return this afternoon through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...An organized band of precipitation continues to move
northward this morning, currently over the central panhandle near
Sitka and Angoon. No significant rain rates have occurred with this
system, with mostly light rain observed. Areas along the Icy Strait
Corridor, like Juneau and Gustavus, continue to see areas of fog
reducing visibilities below 1 SM. This fog has slightly improved
overnight, and will dissipate when the rain moves over the area.
There is a chance for fog to return after the initial band of
precipitation. If fog does return, it should again dissipate late
morning.
After a very short break, another shortwave pushes into the area
Friday, once again moving northward. This system will bring
widespread showers over SE AK. Along with widespread rain, winds
increase Friday morning. The strongest winds will be over the
southern panhandle with gusts around 35 mph being very likely with
the potential for slightly stronger gusts in isolated areas.
Precipitation then lasts through Friday into the weekend.
.LONG TERM.../Saturday through early next week/...The main feature
going into Saturday is a cold front racing up from the south,
resulting rapid increases in southerly wind gusts, briefly cooler
temperatures, and showers with rain and ice pellets. For the
marine areas, currently expecting to see fresh to strong
southerlies with possible gale force gusts associated with this
cold front. What follows this cold front is continued onshore
flow, associated with multiple shortwave troughs associated with
the longwave trough that has been responsible for the continued
warm temperatures.
Looking toward early to mid week next week sees the next proper
frontal passage for the panhandle, bringing more precipitation and
increased winds. Ultimately, most of the energy expected to move
into the SE AK area is originated from a strong Bering Sea low
pressure. As the associated front from the low in the Bering moves
eastward, the triple point looks to form into its own low center
near the northern gulf, swinging a front over the panhandle. Early
indication of the trough moving over the Coast Mountains and into
Canada could result in strong wind gusts up to 50 mph over land
areas, and gale force southeasterlies in the inner channels.
Definitely a system to watch going forward.
Looking far into the extended, ensemble guidance seems to indicate
our warm streak has come to an end, with little to hold back the
deepening cold air in Canada by late next week. While details could
change, there is definitely growing confidence in below normal
temperatures going into the second half of February.
&&
.AVIATION...Mixed bag of conditions across the panhandle depending
on where you are this morning. Parts of the northern panhandle
down to Gustavus and Juneau have areas of fog this morning that
have reduced ceilings and vis as low as 200 ft and a quarter mile
respectively overnight. Conditions improve to VFR in the central
panhandle and southward, but a band of rain is over Admiralty and
Baranof Islands at the moment and moving northward. Behind it and
farther south, VFR conditions still prevail with a high (over
10000 ft) broken to overcast cloud layer. This morning, the areas
of fog in the north should diminish early this morning as the band
of precip moves in. Areas that were IFR or lower will likely
improve to MVFR as the precip moves in, then improve to VFR late
this morning/early this afternoon as the band of rain moves north
and diminishes. Meanwhile, the south and central panhandle will
see lowering conditions as a new area of rain move in from the
south. Expect conditions in these areas to drop to MVFR by late
afternoon with these conditions spreading northward Friday night.
In addition upper level winds will be becoming stronger across the
southern panhandle today with SE winds to 30 to 40 kt at 2000 ft
ASL. This will likely lead to some low level wind shear (mainly
speed shear) in the south with some turbulence also possible into
Friday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Areas of fog continue over portions of the
northern inner channels this morning with visibilities below 1
nautical mile in some areas. As precipitation moves over the area,
and winds increase, this fog will dissipate. Winds this morning will
quickly increase, especially over Clarence Strait. Currently winds
over the southern inner channels are around 15 kts. These winds will
become southerly and begin to increase this morning to around 20 to
25 kts with the strongest winds over Southern Clarence into Dixon
Entrance. As a low pressure system moves further into the gulf,
northerly winds over Lynn Canal will also increase to around 15 to
20 kts. These stronger winds will then persist throughout the day
and slightly diminish overnight into Saturday.
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds over the gulf will increase
this morning as a low pressure system moves northwest into the gulf
sending multiple shortwaves into the panhandle. After increasing,
winds will remain around fresh to strong breezes, with areas of near
gale force winds over Dixon entrance and in the Fairweather grounds.
Winds will slightly diminish late Friday, but periods of stronger
winds will continue into the weekend as multiple shortwaves move
into SE AK. Wave heights of 9 to 11 ft are expected to persist
through the weekend.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAB
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