389
FXAK68 PAFC 180207
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A negatively-tilted upper trough that moved quickly past much of
Southcentral this morning has shifted steadily east since this
morning, now extending from near Cordova up into the Copper
Basin. Steady snow and rain near the coast has also given way to
widespread bands of showers behind the trough passage as cool air
moving in aloft supports very steep deep layer lapse rates and an
overall unstable atmospheric profile. These clusters of showers
are riding up through disorganized southwesterly flow setting up
across the region. A particularly vigorous area of rain and snow
showers is now moving up into the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet
along and ahead of a weak shortwave impulse driving northeast from
the western Gulf. This could bring another quick round of snow to
parts of Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys as it continues north
later this evening into tonight. While briefly heavy snowfall
rates will be possible with the convective nature of these
showers, most of the western Kenai Peninsula up through the Mat-Su
is not expected to see more than an inch or so of new
accumulation overnight. Bands of showers in the form of rain along
the immediate coast and mountain snow will also continue to
stream into Prince William Sound and much of the Chugach Range
this evening into tonight.
Forecast details from Tuesday onward remain rather murky. Overall,
the pattern for Tuesday will be fairly similar to today, with
continued southwest flow and areas of rain and snow showers moving
past at times, especially along the Gulf Coast. From Tuesday night
into Wednesday, an inverted trough extending from a low entering
the far eastern Gulf will begin to bend northwest into the
vicinity of Middleton Island. A swath of moisture coupled with
weak lift north of the surface trough could make it into eastern
fringes of the outlook area near Valdez and Cordova by Wednesday
afternoon, but this remains highly uncertain given the model
spread for where this feature sets up and for the track of the low
moving up into the eastern Gulf.
Forecast confidence deteriorates even further by Wednesday night
into Thursday. A complex trough moving south of the Aleutians is
expected to bend northeast towards the Alaska Peninsula between
Wednesday and Thursday, likely inducing the development of a
strong surface low somewhere between Bristol Bay and the western
Gulf. This discrepancy in where the low forms has significant
implications regarding any potential for strong winds and
precipitation type/amounts near and to the east of this system
across Southcentral. The signal through the noise is that much of
the Gulf could experience gale force winds, possibly stronger,
from Wednesday night into Thursday, with potential for heavy rain
and snow for coastal parts of Southcentral along and ahead of the
low`s front. The air mass moving in with this system also looks
fairly mild, and this could cause some issues with mixed
precipitation types for anything that makes it over the coastal
mountains into the Mat Valley, Anchorage and Cook Inlet region.
However, this will hinge on details for the progression of this
low that are still far from fully resolved. Stay tuned for updates
as we follow this next upcoming storm system and as confidence
for the track and intensity of this feature improves.
-AS
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 to 3: Today through Thursday morning)...
The low that continues to bring a mix of rain and snow showers to
the Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island this afternoon has drifted
to the north of Nunivak Island, and continues advancing northward
to near St. Lawrence Island by Tuesday morning. Southerly winds
gusting between 30 to 40 mph through this evening will begin to
weaken through Tuesday morning as they shift more southwesterly.
Colder air wrapping in behind the departing low will allow for
showers across the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast to
transition back to snow and for any rain across Bristol Bay to mix
with snow at times tonight into Tuesday. The majority of moisture
moving into Southwest off the Bering Sea, in the wake of the
strong low, will impact mostly the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
Delta Coast Tuesday where a couple inches of snowfall will be
possible.
The next notable storm system moves into the western Bering
Tuesday morning as a front brings gusty southeast winds to the
Western Aleutians Tuesday morning along with moderate rain. The
front moves eastward across the Bering and Aleutians through
Wednesday morning as it makes it to the Pribilof Islands by then.
The frontal system eventually tracks into the eastern Bering and
reaches the mainland Southwest coast by mid-Wednesday morning.
Gusty southerly winds up to 35 mph will accompany the front at the
coast. There remains some uncertainty on exactly where a compact
low pressure might spin up along the front, though a track between
Nunivak Island and St Matthew Islands looks like the most likely
scenario. The bulk of precipitation associated with this system is
again expected to mainly impact the Kuskokwim Delta Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning. Warm, southerly flow will allow for
snow to transition to a rain/snow mix along the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast by early Wednesday morning, while any precipitation that
makes it into inland Kuskokwim Delta likely remains light snow.
Yet another point of uncertainty will be the potential for a
stronger low to move into the southeastern Bering by Wednesday
night into Thursday. A northern solution would bring more in the
way of heavier precipitation across mainland Southwest Wednesday
night into Thursday while a southern solution, more into the North
Pacific, would keep the gusty winds and heavy precipitation
confined to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Stay tuned
to forecast updates as the active pattern looks to continue.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Forecast confidence is generally low from late this week through
early next week. Generally expect stormy weather as a low impacts
Southern Alaska on Friday, followed by a brief break before the
next storm moves into the Bering Sea from the west.
Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. A robust shortwave
curving up from the North Pacific will spur the development of a
surface low near the Alaska Peninsula. However, model solutions
remain very divergent, which makes forecast details and potential
impacts difficult to pinpoint. Among the deterministic solutions,
low tracks range from the low curving up the Southwest Alaska
coastline, to the low moving onshore in Bristol Bay, to the low
curving up the Gulf coast towards Prince William Sound. Given the
strength of this low (minimum MSLP as low as 950-960 mb), gales
are likely, with sustained storm force winds possible. All told,
this will be a potentially impactful storm, and one to watch as
forecast confidence gradually improves.
As the aforementioned low gradually weakens and exits out of the
Southern Mainland, a ridge will move in, followed by the front
from a strong low that moves in by Saturday. Winds to storm force
are possible with this front, impacting the Western and Central
Bering/Aleutians. As the front approaches the Mainland by Monday,
secondary lows developing along the front will lead to stormy
weather along the Bering Sea, though uncertainty with low tracks
will once again lead to difficulty pinpointing exact details.
Overall, a low-confidence long-term forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Radar continues to show snow showers moving northward from
the Kenai Peninsula toward the Mat-Su Valley this afternoon. As
this flow continues overnight, light snow showers are possible
through the Anchorage Bowl with some becoming 12Z to 15Z tomorrow.
Scattered snow showers will likely develop after 18Z. &&
$$
498
FXAK69 PAFG 180035
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 PM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad upper level troughing in the Bering Sea will continue to
support a series of low pressure systems moving into Western
Alaska through midweek, with gusty winds, widespread snow, and
warming temperatures along the West Coast, Western Interior,
Central/Western Brooks Range, and NW Arctic Coast. An overlap of
gusty winds and snow could lead to significant reductions in
visibility at times. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories remain in place for the Yukon Delta north through the
Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast for gusty winds and
snow/blowing snow through Wednesday. A rain/snow mix will be
possible across southern portions of the West Coast as warmer
temperatures build in.
Across the Central/Eastern Interior, conditions will remain drier
overall with more isolated to scattered snow chances, as
temperatures also see a warming trend. Best chances for more
moderate snow in this corridor will remain confined to higher
elevations and in the Brooks/Alaska Ranges.
Snow chances are expected to continue across Northern Alaska
through the weekend, as a series of low pressure systems and
fronts in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska continue to support
moisture transport into our region. Looking ahead, increasing
confidence supports a ridge of high pressure building in over
Alaska starting early next week, supporting cooler and drier
conditions returning.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Conditions remain mostly dry overall with isolated to scattered
snow showers possible through the weekend.
- A warmer airmass will continue to build into the Interior this
week, with highs reaching back into the single digits and teens
above zero and lows in the single digits above and below zero.
- A colder and drier airmass will return heading into early next
week as snow chances diminish.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- An active weather pattern continues through midweek across
Western Alaska as a series of storms in the Bering Sea bring
gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.
- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
blizzard conditions are possible at times.
- Strongest wind gusts through Wednesday night will peak around
30-50 mph, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where
gusts up to 60 mph are expected. As the first system moves
north, conditions may briefly improve ahead of a second system
moving in Wednesday.
- Temperatures will continue to see a steady warming trend with
southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
in place. A mix will be possible across lowest elevations,
particularly the southern coastlines.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- A series of systems moving north across Western Alaska will
continue to support widespread snow moving into the
Central/Western Brooks Range (including Atigun Pass) and NW
Arctic Coast through Wednesday.
- Gusty winds are expected to continue Tuesday into Wednesday
across higher elevations and coastal regions, leading to areas
of blowing snow and significant reductions in visibility at
times.
- Colder and drier conditions are expected to continue in the
Eastern Brooks Range and NE Arctic Coast.
- Temperatures will continue to see a warming trend overall this
week, with highs by Wednesday reaching back into the teens and
20s above zero and lows in the single digits and teens.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 970 mb low just off the
coast of the Yukon Delta slowly tracking northeast, supporting
gusty winds and snow across the West Coast. This system will
continue to lift NE into the Seward Peninsula, as a secondary 970
mb low builds in the Central/Eastern Bering Sea late Tuesday into
Wednesday, continuing to reinforce snow and winds into Western
Alaska. Snowfall accumulations through Wednesday night with this
series of systems will be highest across the West Coast/NW Arctic
Coast, Western Interior, Western and Central Brooks Range, and in
the Alaska Range. Here is where we are expecting a broad 3-6" with
higher totals in that 6-12" range across the Southern Seward
Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island, and higher elevations of the
Alaska Range/Brooks Range, locally higher across highest elevations.
Wind gusts in this area are expected to be strongest offshore and
at St. Lawrence Island where wind gusts up to 60 mph are
expected. Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak
around 30-50 mph. Due to warm air advection out of the south,
there could also be a few locations for the Southwest Coast and
the Yukon Delta which may have a mix of rain and snow. Here is
where after the intrusion of warm air builds in today, there is
lower confidence on significantly reduced visibilities in blowing
snow, which will continue to be monitored. We have extended the
winter products in effect for the West Coast through Wednesday
night to capture the impacts from that secondary system lifting
north.
Across the Interior, a persistent cold and dry airmass has given
way to warming temperatures through the upcoming week as broad
southerly flow encompasses the state. Low pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska and Southcentral overnight and earlier today helped to
create a moderate gradient across the Alaska Range, leading to
gusts peaking up to 60 mph through Windy Pass on the Parks Highway
and gusts up to 70 mph on the Richardson Highway north of Isabel
Pass. Snow has built into the Interior southwest to northeast,
with more moderate snowfall amounts expected across the Western
Interior and Alaska Range with lighter amounts further east out
towards the Alcan Border. Isolated to scattered snow showers will
continue through this corridor through the weekend.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Monday.
Ensemble trends have shown little change with most of the region
being influenced by low pressure. The overall energy from the
broad areas of low pressure is going to move into the Gulf of
Alaska towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will
keep the relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to
some of the coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K
Delta to get a mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into
the Gulf, but then transition back to snow with colder air
advection on the backside of this system. The moisture from the
south is going to expand across much of the Mainland towards the
end of the week, and then going into the following weekend, there
are beginning signals which indicate that a ridge could be
building back in towards the end of next weekend and will continue
to lead to a cooling and drying pattern.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819-824>826.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820>823-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852-853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-812-816-817-851-854-
856-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810-855.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Stewey
834
FXAK67 PAJK 172345
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
245 PM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SHORT TERM...
As of 1400 Monday afternoon a near-gale force front is making
landfall along the Chichagof and Baranof coast. Anticipate gusty
25 to 35 mph winds out of the south and east to continue or build
this late afternoon across the Panhandle as the front moves over
the region, with some snow impacts for Haines and Klondike
Highways. As of this writing light snow is ongoing in the north,
with minimal impacts for Haines Highway. Klondike is seeing more
snow given the elevation, but current forecast remains confident
that 24 hour totals from Monday into Tuesday morning remain near 4
to 6 inches for the pass; heaviest snow before 12 AM Tuesday.
Winds and rain decrease Tuesday before a more prominent system
arrives Wednesday. More info below.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week with
a complex scenario in the books for Wednesday into Thursday. The
impactful change in the long term forecast is the shift in model
guidance to spin up a much more vigorous triple point low or
embedded trough in the southeast gulf ahead of the parent low. The
primary low is still expected to push into the southern gulf by
Wednesday afternoon, however this extra feature will bring
enhanced winds to the southern panhandle and coastal waters by
early Wednesday morning, spreading northward with widespread
gales. Depending on when and where this embedded feature develops,
it could get a jumpstart from the backside of an upper level
ridge over the panhandle just ahead of the parent low at the
surface. Due to this uncertainty in strength and the range of
potential impacts, a high wind watch has been issued for the
southern panhandle including Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of
Wales Island. For Prince of Wales Island, the southern coast is
the area where the highest winds are expected to occur. As of this
forecast issuance, the timing of the highest winds with gusts up
to 60 mph out of the southeast would be between 9am and 3 pm
Wednesday.
Regardless of track, strong winds will accompany this feature as it
swings northward through the panhandle Wednesday, along with
moderate to locally heavy precipitation. The heaviest
precipitation is still expected to be limited to south of
Frederick Sound. However, a more northward track of this embedded
trough could bring moderate moisture further north, leading to
higher snowfall for the Haines and Klondike Highways, which are
expected to remain cold enough to maintain primarily snow along
higher elevations. Elsewhere, temperatures in the low levels are
expected to remain warm enough for cold rain, with some snow
potentially mixing in with heavier rates along the Icy Strait
corridor and for Haines and Skagway at sea level. This will likely
be dependent upon how long winds in Lynn Canal stay northerly
ahead of the arrival of precipitation. Overall high temperatures
will continue to range from the upper 40s in the south to the low
40s in the north. Extensive cloud cover and persistent
precipitation will moderate temperatures in the northern
panhandle.
Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday, transitioning
the panhandle to predominantly onshore southwesterly flow Friday
into Saturday. This front is expected to bring gale force winds
to the gulf waters along with widespread moderate to heavy
precipitation to a majority of the panhandle. The heaviest
precipitation is expected along outer coastal communities, with 24
hour totals from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon 1.5 to
2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts at higher elevations and
westward facing slopes. For communities in the inner channels,
storm totals look to be closer to 0.75 inches to 1.5 inches. As
with earlier in the week, a lack of a significant cold continental
airmass in the inner channels will likely limit any snow
potential for communities at sea level. Haines and Skagway cannot
be ruled out, especially higher elevations of the Chilkat
Peninsula. Also, the track of the low on Wednesday into Thursday
could serve to prime the northern inner channels for snow if it
induces a northerly gradient for long enough. Stay tuned for
forecast updates as the week progresses.
Overall a very dynamic setup with potential for higher land and
marine impacts if this triple point low develops and tracks just
off of the outer coast. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates
as we head into midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR to VFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 5000ft and
intermittent visbys down to 3SM ongoing across the panhandle this
morning as front pushes inland. MVFR flight conditions become
predominate across the panhandle through 02z with CIGS AoB 2500ft,
decreasing further after 06z post FROPA with intermittent CIGs
AoB 1500ft by 15z Tuesday. Highest potential for IFR cigs and
visbys late Monday night into Tuesday morning across the southern
panhandle TAF sites like Klawock, Ketchikan, and Petersburg, but
low forecast confidence at this time. Return to MVFR to VFR flight
conditions once more through Tuesday morning as a weak system
pushes into the NE Gulf coast.
Winds across the N panhandle will remain elevated through Monday
afternoon due to aforementioned passing front, with strongest
sustained winds around 15 to 25kts with gusts up to 25 to 35kts.
Strongest winds will remain near TAF sites like Haines and Skagway,
continuing through Tuesday morning. Winds across the S panhandle
expected to be lighter through Monday afternoon, around 10kts.
&&
.MARINE...Outside (Gulf/Coastal waters):Monday afternoon a near-
gale force front is moving into the coast. Seas reached a minimum
of 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds from the WSW this morning, with a
combination of southeasterly seas and westerly swell bringing
confused seas of 10 to 13 ft as the front moves through this
afternoon. By Monday evening westerly swell becomes more prominent
for the majority of the coast, focused at 10-13 ft near 12
seconds from the WSW. One item of concern is a secondary low
moving into the northern coast Monday night, bringing another
round of strong breeze to near gale force conditions from Yakutat
toward the Fairweather grounds as the parent low moves into
Yakutat Bay into Tuesday morning. Winds increase to gales early
Wednesday morning, more info below.
Wednesdays 970 mb low continues to trend stronger, with
southerly strong-gales likely for much of the coast. The
published forecast has matched this trend, with southeasterly
seas near 23 to 27 ft likely with the associated fetch duration
and wind strength. There is a chance to see storm force winds
Wednesday morning along the outer coast. Something to watch
carefully over the next 24 hours.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Monday morning winds are southerly through the inner channels in
response a near-gale force front moving northeast toward the
coast. Expect the front to push over the Panhandle through the
afternoon with winds building to fresh to strong breezes for most
of the inner channels. Lynn Canal will likely see near-gale force
conditions, with a brief period of gales as the front moves over
this evening. Generally, winds decrease overnight Monday,
remaining below 25 knots for Tuesday. A storm force low moves into
the coast Wednesday bringing gale force winds to much of the
central and southern inner channels. A healthy fetch of strong-
gale force winds in Queen Charlotte Sound/Hecate Strait will drive
stout southeasterly seas of 12 to perhaps 18 ft into southern
Clarence.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening
for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP
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