031
FXAK68 PAFC 310158
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Friday)...
Ridging in the Bering Sea and troughing over Southcentral and the
Gulf of Alaska continue to define the upper-level pattern this
afternoon. The trough is anchored by a vertically-stacked low
pressure system in the east-central Gulf, while a closed upper-
level low sits over interior Alaska. Conditions are largely cold
and dry across Southcentral as the Gulf low slowly tracks toward
Southeast Alaska. This will be punctuated by some light snow as a
band of precipitation extending from the Susitna Valley across the
Alaska Range into the Interior drops south tonight, aided by the
closed upper-low to the north swinging a shortwave trough across
Southcentral. Light snow is most likely near the Alaska Range,
with accumulations up to an inch or so possible along the Denali
Highway and near Paxson. Some flurries and lighter accumulations
are possible further south in the Matanuska Valley and even
Anchorage (the best chance would be on the Hillside and higher
elevations of Eagle River) later this evening as the snow works
its way south. By around midnight tonight, this band of
precipitation will begin to interact with the moist easterly flow
wrapping around the Gulf low and bring slightly heavier
precipitation to Prince William Sound and portions of the Copper
River Basin.
Meanwhile, a separate potent shortwave trough tracking over the
top of the Bering ridge digs southeastward across Southwest Alaska
and digs into the western Gulf tonight into Wednesday. Cold
advection associated with the trough spreads across Southcentral,
with winds already increasing through the coastal mountain gaps
this evening. Wind gusts in Whittier already approaching 65 mph
are reducing visibility to one half mile by lofting low density
snow that fell earlier this morning. Low visibilities look to
continue through the night, at minimum, until the transportable
snow is mostly scoured out. While the strongest area of cold
advection will be across the Alaska Peninsula, the western Gulf
coastal waters, and Kodiak Island, cold air deepens across the
rest of Southcentral as well, so gap winds look to ramp up again
through Wednesday (New Year`s Eve). Fortunately, one gap that will
be spared with this northwesterly flow event is the Matanuska
Valley, where winds will remain fairly light.
Gusty winds, already ongoing through Thompson Pass, are also
expected to reduce visibility to one half mile or less as snow
returns after midnight. Visibility is expected to improve as now
comes to an end across Prince William Sound and the Copper Basin
Wednesday evening. In all, snow accumulations up to around 3
inches are expected near the coast, with decreasing amounts
further inland/north. After that point, dry and cold conditions
will settle back in across the region as the upper trough
marches eastward. Gap winds will begin to gradually diminish
Thursday into Friday with the loss of the upper-level forcing from
the trough. Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually trend downward
into the weekend. We are monitoring the potential for wind chills
40 below zero or lower developing across the Copper Basin and
mountain passes of the Alaska Range as early as Wednesday night.
By Friday, ambient temperatures in the single digits above and
below zero are expected across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage,
western Kenai, Mat-Su) and even much of the north Gulf coast
(including Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Meanwhile, the
Copper Basin will likely be in the range of 20 to 30 below zero.
Cold temperatures look to stick around through Monday next week.
Quesada
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...
A stout upper ridge is making slow but steady progress eastwards
today, allowing dry conditions to spread across the
central/eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs. Farther west, a front
associated with an North Pacific low has pushed over the western
Aleutians from the south, spreading low-end Gale force winds, and
moderate rainfall into the western Chain. Across the AKPen, very
strong and gusty north winds persist this morning, fueled by
strong northerly flow between the Bering ridge and a deep low
meandering across the Gulf. These strong winds will continue
through tonight, remaining storm-force through the southern gaps
and passes, through tonight diminishing Wednesday morning. Winds
causing the resuspended ash from several of the volcanoes along
the AKPen have diminished, and the ash is no longer airborne.
The Bering front will continue to make steady northeast progress
into the western and central Bering through midweek, spreading
mainly rain across the Aleutian Chain as it moves across.
Precipitation could start out as snow in the Pribilofs as the
front moves in Wednesday afternoon, but a fairly quick transition
to rain is likely by Wednesday evening as warmer air along the
boundary pushes through.
Across Southwest, a weak low and trailing front currently moving
across the far northern Bering is on track to push a quick shot of
snow showers across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening into early
Wednesday. Moisture support for snow along this incoming front
still looks unimpressive, with up to an inch of new snowfall for
areas of the Kusko Delta anticipated as the front races past
tonight, before deteriorating. Across the rest of Southwest, cold
and dry conditions will persist through Thursday as north winds
gradually die down. For the AKPen region, very strong and gusty
northerly winds will continue today, weakening slightly by
Wednesday, then coming down more sharply by Thursday as the Bering
ridge erodes and as the Gulf low weakens.
By the end of the workweek, a shift toward more active weather
across the Bering Sea and Southwest coastline is expected with a
broad trough moving in. No significantly deep lows on the horizon
yet, however the passage of several shortwaves through the area
may be the beginning of a longer term shift out of the high
pressure benign pattern.
-AS/CL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Very cold, dry weather will persist into the weekend across mainland
Alaska, while the Aleutians remain near- or just above-average in
terms of temperatures thanks to a strong amplified upper-level ridge
that remains in place across the central Bering Sea. Models are
beginning to converge to a solution which features a deep low
crossing over the Aleutians and into the Bering late Saturday into
Sunday, helping shift that large ridge eastward a bit. Strong
winds, large waves, and heavy precipitation are all a possibility
with this low as it shifts north, with the strongest winds
currently expected to be from approximately Atka west.
For Southcentral, the main hazard for the weekend will be the
continuation of strong gap winds through Sunday before the pressure
gradient relaxes. Temperatures will be quite cold, with highs near 0
for Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula, with lows closer to 10 below.
The Copper River Basin will remain frigid, with temperatures largely
hovering between 20 and 40 below.
Models diverge, and thus confidence lowers, as we head into the
beginning of next week. There`s still reasonable consensus that a
strong front associated with this low will rotate east into mainland
Alaska, helping break down the ridge that would then be across the
Gulf of Alaska north. A strong triple point low may also develop
across the northern Gulf, which would bring heavy precip/snow to
much of the Southcentral Coast. Details are still murky with this
one, but this would ultimately be the next chance of significant
snow accumulation for much of the area. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty winds will finally die down today, slowly diminishing
through the morning hours. A weak upper short-wave digging into
Southcentral from the Interior tonight, will keep some clouds
overhead, though mostly mid to high clouds. There is a just a
slight chance of ceilings dropping to 5000 feet or a bit lower
as the trough crosses overhead between 09Z and 15Z.
&&
$$
451
FXAK69 PAFG 302259
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
159 PM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow and wind on the West Coast with near blizzard conditions in
Wales will be ending this afternoon as a front moves through.
Light snow is expected across most of the West Coast with
accumulations around 1 to 2 inches. The Interior has some cloud
cover south and east of Fairbanks resulting in milder temperatures
in the upper Tanana and very cold temperatures persisting
north/west. The North Slope will see some light snow today and
tomorrow with increasing winds tomorrow afternoon. Blizzard or
near blizzard conditions will be possible from the south side of
Atigun Pass to Deadhorse and Kaktovik.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Persistent cold weather in the Interior will keep temperatures
well below normal for the foreseeable future.
- Widespread 30s/40s below or colder where there are clear skies.
- Most cloud cover moves northeast by this weekend leaving much of
the Interior clear and calm.
- Most extreme temperatures will be in the Eastern Interior
Valleys where temperatures near 60 below zero will be possible.
- Central Interior Temperatures may get near 50F below zero or
colder.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow and gusty wind today in the Bering Strait with mostly light
snow and light winds along the rest of the coast.
- 1 to 2 inches of snow expected.
- Low visibility to 1/2 mile in the Bering Strait through the
afternoon.
- Gradually dropping temperatures tonight through the end of the
week with temperatures in the teens/20s below zero along the
coast and widespread 40s below zero in the Interior Valleys.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light snow and flurries from the northern slopes of the Brooks
Range to the Arctic Coast today and tomorrow.
- Snow accumulations around 1 inch or less.
- Wind increases with northerly winds through Atigun and Anaktuvuk
Passes around 35 mph tomorrow morning through Thursday morning.
- Wind in Kaktovik will also increase Wednesday evening and
continue through Thursday afternoon with gusts to 50 mph.
- Blowing snow is likely to occur with visibility 1/2 mile along
the Dalton Highway and 1/4 mile in Kaktovik.
- Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are issued.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The Omega block continues in the North Pacific with an area of
lower pressure stations from the Western Aleutians to Japan, ridge
over the Central Aleutians and low over the Gulf. This pattern has
been nearly stationary for 2+ weeks with no signs of changing too
much this week. A cold pattern across most of the state will only
get colder as we head into the weekend.
Prior to this though, the trough over the Gulf and Eastern Alaska
will interact with a high over the Arctic, resulting in breezy
west winds across the North Slope and Brooks Range. This will
cause blowing and drifting snow tomorrow through Thursday, mostly
from the Dalton Highway eastward. Farther southwest along the West
Coast and in the Western Interior, temperatures will continue to
drop beginning tonight with well below zero temperatures expected
from the coast to the Interior. While the coldest air will be in
the Western Interior Valleys, light northerly winds will likely
reside along the coast, and perhaps bring very cold wind chills,
as low as 60F below zero at times. However, the coldest ambient
temperatures will be in the Western Interior, which will range
from 30F to 50F below zero range.
Across the Central and Eastern Interior, 850mb temperatures will
be around 20C to 30C below zero which will support surface
temperatures around 40F to 50F below zero. There will be chances
for colder, especially in the Eastern Interior Valleys where
850mb temperatures are closer to 30C below zero. By this weekend,
we could be looking at the coldest air of the season for many
spots in the Interior.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Saturday through next Tuesday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Saturday, broad
troughing will be reasserting with strong northwest flow expected
in the Interior from the Chukchi Sea. Temperatures well below 0
are expected for the entire region with many Interior valleys
seeing temperatures in the 30s to possibly even as cold as the
60 below zero. Some sparse cloud cover may provide some brief
warming across small portions of the Interior, but the timing and
placement of this cloud cover is very unpredictable.
There is a chance for some more notable warming late in the
period, as early as next Tuesday as another system moves through
the pattern potentially bringing some warmer and wetter air over
the region. Should this occur some light snow is expected along
with rising temperatures, but confidence is still far too low at
this time to give any particular qualitative or quantitative
details.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ811.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Gale Warning for PKZ807-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Bianco
471
FXAK67 PAJK 310031
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Winter storm continues in Northern Southeast Alaska with
multiple rounds of snow through early Wednesday.
- Arctic Boundary is around Angoon and Pelican, so places south
of that like Sitka to Kake to Petersburg and south are in the
40s.
- Localized flooding from streams over the southern panhandle.
- Offshore flow with break in snowfall looks to come for the
panhandle into the end of the week through the early weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ through Thursday / Multi center low pressure
system over the central will continue to spin bands of showers
into the panhandle. One exited early Tuesday and one is expect
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Yet another band of showers should
lift into the northern portion of the band late tonight to
Wednesday morning. Shower activity will be lessening on Wednesday
and should be tapering off early Thursday for much of Southeast
Alaska. Between the heavier showers and first part of the
overnight freezing rain pockets possible.
Rains across the southern panhandle has settled down, and it is only
the running off leaking into the rivers or localized Flood
advisories earlier, and just the one for Ward Lake Recreational
area below Lake Connell Dam. Showers for the south are not
expected to be extensive.
.LONG TERM...End of the week into the start of the weekend is
generally on a cooler and drier trend, with diminishing chances
for snowfall.
Going into the end of the week, an upper level trough moving
eastward will sit over the panhandle, blocking off some of the
moisture from moving in despite the low lingering in the northern
Gulf, and allowing for arctic air to be brought down into the
panhandle. The setup will change to more of an outflow pattern as
northerly winds last into the weekend, and cooler and drier air is
brought down into the panhandle from the Yukon. Temperatures will
steadily decrease across the panhandle Wednesday through
Saturday, however the weaker outflow setup will not allow for
quite as cold conditions as we have seen earlier this month, with
minimum temperatures staying largely above 10-15 degrees with the
exception of the far northern panhandle seeing colder conditions.
Temperatures will decrease to the low to to mid 30s for the
southern panhandle and central outer coastline by the end of the
week, to the low to mid 20s for the central panhandle, and to the
mid teens to less than 10 degrees for the far northern panhandle
by Friday. These colder temperatures and drops in snow level will
last into the weekend before the next system moves into the Gulf,
with warmer temperatures and moisture returning to the panhandle
by Monday as this next system brings in the next round of
snowfall.
Overall during this period, precipitation chances will drop across
the panhandle as the moisture is cut off, with only some slight
chances during the end of the week. The highest chances remain
along the northern Gulf coast and the far southern panhandle,
though some weak showers may move through the panhandle from the
low weakening in the northern Gulf. Any precipitation that happens
will remain largely light and short lasting showers, due to the
lack of moisture and weakened dynamic setup. Either way this
period of time is expected to be a break in the snowy weather,
with the majority of the panhandle expecting to see drier and even
potentially sunny conditions as skies clear with the offshore
flow that sets up by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Conditions will continue to be poor across the region tonight as a
wave of moisture and colder temperatures moves south to north.
Main IFR to LIFR conditions will be from Icy Strait north this
evening, with Yakutat`s FZRASN becoming SN. Expect precip type to
change over to SN as far south at PAPG and potentially PAWG. For
the southern Panhandle expecting MVFR conditions to hold with
periods of heavier rain diminishing to IFR.
Wednesday morning we start to see some improvement of conditions
in the central and southern Panhandle, with IFR SN at times for
the north.
LLWS continues to be a threat this evening as the parent storm
makes landfall and stout southerly winds move over the
Panhandle. 30-50 knots of southerly wind, becoming southwesterly,
continue tonight with LLWS decreasing Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...Inside (Inner Channels): A frontal boundary is splitting the
panhandle and bringing two regimes. Across southern Chatham,
Sumner and Clarence Straits, fresh to near gale southerly winds
persist. North of the boundary, a fresh to strong outflow pattern
is prevalent. Waters near Point Couverden experiencing winds
around 50 kt with higher gusts. The boundary lifts north through
the day and into tonight, with a shift in winds to the south
expected north Stephens Passage and northern Chatham.
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low out in the northern Gulf
will persist through midweek, bringing fresh to strong breezes.
12-16 ft waves are expected to continue with the predominant
swell direction remaining out of the south and west. Winds and
seas diminish through the latter half of the week as the low
weakens.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318>320-
325.
Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ321-322.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031-034-036-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Bezenek
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