407
FXAK68 PAFC 101254
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Tue Jun 10 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...
Summer is on its way! With the cold low exiting into the Gulf from
the Kenai Peninsula early this morning, the unseasonable cold
temperatures will begin to warm closer to normal Wednesday. By
Thursday, many temperatures in Southcentral will warm into the mid
60s to mid 70s under sunny skies. There will still be a chance
for some isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially
in the Copper River Basin, but a significant clearing and warming
trend is on its way over the next few days.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A front currently situated over the central Bering and Aleutians
is bringing widespread rounds of rain and small craft winds.
There is a small core of gales set up just west of the Eastern
Aleutians that will track north with the front, passing near the
Pribilof Islands before tapering off near Saint Matthew Island.
The front continues to progress eastward through today, reaching
just offshore of the Southwest Coast by this afternoon. The
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island have the best chance to
see rain while the rest of Southwest remains on the drier, though
cloud cover will gradually spill into the rest of the Southwest
mainland over the next few days.
Expect steady onshore flow into the Kuskokwim Delta coast
to persist beyond midweek. This will coincide with the full moon
and astronomical high tide, potentially resulting in coastal
waters rising slightly higher than the highest astronomical tide
line.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Expect generally unsettled weather as several lows move across
Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea late this week and into early
next week. The worst conditions during this 4-day span will
likely be focused along the Central/Eastern Bering Sea, Alaska
Peninsula, Southwest Mainland, and Kodiak Island as a robust low
moves up from the North Pacific. There is still uncertainty with
the timing and how far east/west the low will track. However, with
good consensus that the low will push north into the Bering Sea,
it looks likely that there will be gusty winds through gaps and
passes of the Alaska Peninsula, as well as through Kamishak Gap
and into interior Bristol Bay. Periods of moderate to heavy rain
will also be likely across this area. For the Western
Bering/Aleutians, fairly quiet weather with winds expected to
remain below 25 kt and areas of rain showers.
For Southcentral Alaska, warm weather and rain showers (with the
potential for thunderstorms) under a ridge will likely give way to
more widespread rain as an upper low retrogrades westward over the
weekend. However, forecast confidence is low because the
placement of the upper low varies greatly among the models.
Steadier rain and stronger winds could be on the way as another
North Pacific low enters the Gulf from Sunday into Monday, but
forecast confidence is also low regarding the track of this
feature.
-KC
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Other than a brief period or two of MVFR ceilings early
this morning, VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
&&
$$
264
FXAK69 PAFG 102039
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1239 PM AKDT Tue Jun 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Summer returns to the Interior after a fairly cold late
spring/early June. It will warm into the 70s across the Interior
Wednesday, and will be approaching 80 degrees for Interior
locations by the end of the week, and pushing above 80 for the
weekend. Out west, it is a completely different tale as southerly
flow will bring rain and blustery south wind to the coast through
the week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
A fairly straightforward forecast as temps increase each day
through the week, in association with an upper level ridge.
Wednesday should be the first 70 degree day in Fairbanks this
season, which is the latest of all-time (the record latest day was
June 7th, 1955). However, we will just keep going and likely
reach the first 80 by Sat. The only other noteworthy weather will
be a chance for isolated thunderstorms over the SE Interior and
Fortymile Country each afternoon.
- Summer returns to the Interior with warming temps through the
week, getting close to 80 degrees for lower elevation valleys by
Friday.
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon across the SE
Interior and Fortymile Country.
West Coast and Western Interior...
Rounds of rainfall along with blustery south winds 25 to 35 mph
will impact the West Coast through the week. Most of the rainfall
will occur over the W Seward Peninsula to Saint Lawrence Island,
with much lighter rainfall over the YK Delta and intermittently
into Kotzebue Sound. Elsewhere, it will be dry with bouts of
higher clouds.
- South winds, rain, and cooler temps for the coast with warming
temps inland.
- Gusts as high as 50 mph are expected for the Bering Strait
coast.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
Winter is finally losing its grip over the Arctic as south flow
will bring in warmer temps through the week. A front will bring
some clouds and a chance for rain over the Chukchi coast today and
tonight. Point Hope will be the blow hole in this pattern as
south winds to gale force will be possible through the week.
Otherwise, fairly sunny skies and warming temps will grace the
eastern half of the Arctic.
- Warming temps and quiet weather for the arctic, with the
exception being Point Hope where gale force south winds and
rainfall are expected.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 548 dam arctic low is finally drifting southeast away from the
Mainland into the N Gulf Coast. There is a 564 dam skinny ridge
trying to build into the Mainland, stretching from Bristol Bay to
the E Arctic. There is a 541 dam low over the W Bering Sea with a
south flow across the West Coast, which is supporting rainfall and
blustery south winds. With time, the ridge is projected to
strengthen and move over the Mainland, promoting rising temps over
the Interior and Arctic.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temps will be on the rise into the 70s by Wednesday and then the
80s by the weekend over the Interior. Minimum RH will be dropping
into the upper teens to low 20 % range along with mostly sunny
skies. Isolated wet thunderstorms will be possible today,
tomorrow, and Thu across the SE Interior and higher elevations
such as the Yukon-Tanana Uplands and Fortymile Country.
For the extended, expect 80s to last into next week with ever-
increasing thunderstorm threats by Monday as a "ring of fire"
pattern sets up, with a strong Interior high and daily chances for
strong thunderstorms across parts of the Interior.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The only breakup concern remaining is the Sag River. Rising temps
across the E Arctic commences today and continues through the
weekend, with temps shooting into the 60 degree range along the
coast. Expect rapid snowmelt and degradation of ice, which may
cause break concerns along the Colville, Sag, and other rivers
draining the Brooks Range.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A blocking high will begin to dominate the Mainland pattern this
weekend, with the upper high expected to form and strengthen over
the E Interior and Yukon this weekend. This will promote very
warm Interior temps with highs expected to be into the 80 degree
range Saturday and Sunday for E Interior lower elevation valleys.
Over the West Coast, broad south flow will remain in place with
cool onshore flow and rainfall. Monday and Tuesday, a "ring-of-
fire" pattern aloft is expected to develop which will promote
widespread thunderstorms across the Interior and up along the
Brooks Range, and possibly even into the Arctic. Summer is here.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-816-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
$$
Ahsenmacher
416
FXAK67 PAJK 101752
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
952 AM AKDT Tue Jun 10 2025
.UPDATE...18z Aviation Issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM...High pressure brings a
break in the rainy weather and more sunshine for SE AK.
Key messages:
-Mainly dry weather expected but can`t completely rule out isolated
showers today for parts of the northern half of the panhandle.
-Mainly light winds expected today.
-Daily temperatures remain at or below normal for this time of year.
Details: Ridge of high pressure continues to build at the surface.
This ridge should bring SE AK drier weather with breaks in the
clouds. And using latest model guidance, kept the low PoPS in the
forecast. However, with onshore flow at higher levels, isolated
showers can`t be completely ruled out for the northern half of the
panhandle.
Wind speeds around the panhandle look to be mainly light, with
gustier winds possible in the afternoon before the winds calm back
down in the evening.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal for this time of
year. Afternoon highs look to be near normal for the southern
panhandle while the northern half will see below normal temps.
Tonight`s low look to be near normal.
Overall, a quiet weather forecast especially when compared to the
last couple of weeks.
.LONG TERM...
Less active weather remains in the forecast for a majority
of the week with a broad area of ridging remaining over the
panhandle. There is still a chance of scattered showers for the
northern panhandle through this period due to 500 mb zonal onshore
flow. Winds will decrease and remain light until turning easterly
with the next system moving over the panhandle on Thursday.
The weak surface low with associated upper level easterly flow
will increase the chances for convective showers later in the
week, especially for the northern and inner portions of the
panhandle. QPF remains low for this system with minimal to no
accumulation expected. The potential for easterly thunderstorms is
being considered, though moisture levels look relatively dry with
normal surface temperatures. The EFI table currently shows
agreement for increased gusts on the western side of Canada. Most
models agree on low CAPE, slightly unstable lapse rates, and a
positive lifted index. Uncertainty still remains because the GFS
shows more likely of a chance for these variables to line up,
along with increased vorticity and an inversion.
After the system on Friday, there is potential for another dry
period through the weekend before the next system reaches the
panhandle Tuesday. A broad upper level low helps guide a
relatively weak surface low northeast through the gulf, with the
front looking to reach the outer coast by Tuesday morning. EC runs
have stretched and weakened the upper level low more so than
other model runs, which causes the surface low to fall apart and
give the panhandle another dry day. Either way, showers will most
likely follow. Temperatures are looking to increase slightly
through the week, with some areas seeing highs in the low 60s and
lows in the high 40s.
&&
.AVIATION.../ through 18z Wednesday / Conditions across the
panhandle have improved to VFR, and these conditions are expected
to continue through the 18z taf issuance. Warm advection between
925-700 mb with saturated air in the north gulf is causing some
onshore flow near Yakutat, but winds aloft look to flip around 20z
to offshore with a drying trend. Expect MVFR cigs in the area AOB
2500 ft to quickly diminish and clear out. Not expecting any fog
development, as a lingering stacked low looks to bring some
vorticity advection and upward motion, mixing out the lower levels
of the atmosphere overnight.
Some increase in winds are expected in the northern panhandle near
Skagway, due to thermal gradients between the relatively cold
panhandle air and solar heating in Canada. Not expecting strong
gusts above 30 knots.
&&
.MARINE...Outside Waters: As a ridge builds in the gulf, winds diminish to 5
to 10 across most of the outer coastal waters. The big exception is
the the far southern outer coastal waters, which will see winds
closer to 15 to 20 kt. Wave heights of between 4-6 feet are
expected. Still a general southwest swell.
These conditions continue until a weak low enters the Gulf tomorrow,
Wednesday the 11th. Then wind speeds will increase to 15 kt across
most of the outer coastal waters by late Wednesday night with 15 to
20 kt speeds lasting into Thursday and Friday. Wind directions can
be considered variable as they will be highly determined by where
the low is at that time. Ahead of the low, winds will be out of a
southerly direction with west or north winds behind the low.
Inner Channels: Winds for most of the inner channels will be around
5 to 10 kts or less through the next few days. There are some
exceptions, such as Lynn Canal, near Point Couverden, near Young
Bay, and Clarence Strait, where winds of up to 15 kt are expected at
times.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...GJS
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