722
FXAK68 PAFC 260027
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...
A vertically stacked Bering Sea low is centered over the central
Bering and continues tracking eastward toward the Alaska
Peninsula.
As the front from the Bering low approaches the coast tonight
into tomorrow morning, a coastal ridge will build across
Southcentral. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the
terrain gaps and passes, allowing gap winds to develop and
increase from this afternoon through Tuesday night.
Turnagain Arm winds will ramp up first, pushing into the western
side of Anchorage this evening before turning more down-inlet by
Tuesday morning. Gusty easterly winds are also expected along the
Anchorage Hillside and Eagle River, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
possible at times. Farther north, Knik winds will increase,
bringing gusty conditions into Palmer. These gap winds will be
most persistent through Tuesday before gradually easing Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the gradient relaxes.
Rain will continue to spread across Southcentral through this
evening as the front lifts north across the Gulf. The steadiest
rainfall will favor coastal areas including Kodiak Island, the
eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound. Meanwhile,
downslope flow will maintain mostly dry conditions from the
western Kenai to Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys. Showers linger
into Tuesday as the front weakens inland, with periods of light
rain persisting through the day. By Tuesday night into Wednesday,
precipitation becomes more scattered and showery in nature as the
parent low weakens over the Gulf. Lingering moisture and weak
disturbances will keep a chance of showers in the forecast through
Wednesday evening, through overall rainfall intensity will be
lower compared to earlier in the week.
Looking ahead to mid to late week, the parent low weakens as it
shifts into the Gulf, but maintains an unsettled pattern across
Southcentral with periodic showers and lingering cloud cover.
LM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
The large, vertically stacked low in the Bering continues to
track to the northeast along the Bering side of the Alaska
Peninsula through tonight. The gusty southerly winds continue this
afternoon for AKPen communities, but will weaken through this
evening as they turn more southwesterly as the low tracks into
Bristol Bay. Elsewhere across the Bering, northwesterly small
craft winds on the back side of the low decrease from west to east
through tonight before lingering over the eastern Aleutians and
Pribilof Islands through Wednesday morning.
Showery conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska and the
Alaska Peninsula through early this week as the low slows in its
track and becomes nearly stationary through Tuesday. As the front
pushes into the Gulf this afternoon, gusty southeasterly winds
will pick up across northern/central Bristol Bay as the Kamishak
Gap wind kicks in. Kamishak Gap winds are expected to remain
elevated until the low finally begins to pivot across the AKPen
and into the Gulf later this week. By Wednesday, gradual
improvement is expected across the region as winds relax and
precipitation becomes more scattered. A second front extending off
a much weaker Kamchatka low moves over the Western Aleutians
Tuesday night, bringing another round of precipitation to the
Bering Sea.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST
(Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
The Aleutians, Southwest Alaska, Kodiak Island and coastal areas
of Southcentral will remain unsettled into next Monday. A
weakening trough originating from the Bering Strait will persist
over the Kuskokwim Delta bringing showers through the Monday. A
Kamchatka Low reaches the Western Aleutians Friday afternoon. The
exact track remains uncertain but chances of precipitation and
continued cloudy weather is expected over the weekend for the
Western and Central Aleutians. An upper level low over Bristol Bay
travels over the Alaska Peninsula and into the western Gulf of
Alaska overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon
through Monday, the GFS model has this low stall in the center of
the Gulf while the Euro weakens it as it moves toward Southeast
Alaska. Therefore, forecaster confidence in its track and effects
on Southcentral is low.
-SS/DJ
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period, with
ceilings generally remaining above 5,000 ft. An approaching front
will likely lead to gusty southeasterly winds out of the
Turnagain Arm this evening, peaking around 30 kt between about 06Z
to 12Z tonight. While winds diminish around 12Z, there is some
uncertainty with the wind direction. Have leaned towards a weaker
southeasterly wind; however, if these light winds becoming more
northerly, there could be a period of low-level wind shear between
about 12Z and 21Z tomorrow morning. After 21Z, gusty southeasterly
winds return.
&&
$$
589
FXAK69 PAFG 252351
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A front moves north across the region late Monday into Tuesday.
Strong easterly winds develop across the Northern Interior ahead
of the front, strongest across the Dalton Highway Summits. Along
the front showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
the Western Interior with some reaching into the higher terrain of
the Eastern Interior. Behind the front southerly winds increase
once more through the Alaska Range passes Tuesday leading to
elevated fire weather concerns. The pattern calms somewhat
Wednesday into Thursday before become much less certain over the
weekend.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers are expected to
continue across most of the Interior throughout the week. The
greatest chances for thunder will be in the higher terrain of
the Eastern Interior through Wednesday afternoon.
- Gusty east/northeast winds return to the Interior late Monday
through Tuesday morning with gusts reaching near 20 to 30 mph
for areas north of Fairbanks. Stronger gusts up to 55 mph are
possible across the Dalton Highway Summits Monday night.
- Southerly gap winds return to the Alaska Range passes Tuesday
morning and continue into Wednesday. Gusts up to 55 mph are
possible. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected near Delta
Junction Tuesday afternoon.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms continue
across the Western Interior and parts of the Seward Peninsula
this week. The heaviest showers are expected Monday afternoon
and evening from the Middle to Lower Yukon north and west to the
Norton Sound Coast.
- Gusty northeast winds return to the West Coast tonight. The
strongest winds are expected from St. Lawrence Island through
the Bering Strait to the Lisburne Peninsula with gusts up to 35
to 45 mph possible. Winds should gradually diminish late Tuesday
into Wednesday, but remain gusting around 20 to 30 mph through
the end of the week.
- Patchy dense fog is possible across the West Coast each morning
this week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected with highs
in the upper 20s to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to mid
20s along the North Slope. Highs will be in the low 40s across
the northern Brooks Range in the upper 50s to low 60s across the
southern Brooks Range.
- Easterly winds increase across the Arctic Coast tonight with
gusts up to 30 mph possible east of Point Barrow and up to 35
mph near Point Lay. Winds are expected to weaken Tuesday night.
- Low clouds and patchy fog continue across the North Slope
through most of the week. Gaps in the clouds become more common
further west.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Monday through Thursday.
At the start of the forecast period Monday, the pattern is one of
broad troughing across the region centered on yet another low
pressure system in the Bering Sea. A front extending from this low
moves north across the region Monday evening through Tuesday.
Ahead of the front strong easterly winds are expected, especially
across the Northern Interior. Along the front heavier showers with
embedded thunderstorms are expected from the Lower Yukon north
and east to the Middle Yukon and Koyukuk River Valley.
Thunderstorms are more likely further into the Western Interior,
but still expected to remain isolated. Behind the front winds
shift southerly. Strong gap winds are expected through the Alaska
Range Tuesday following the front.
By Monday night the low in the Bering will have reached Bristol
Bay where it briefly stalls along the southwestern coast before
moving east into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday. As the low moves
east winds weaken in the Alaska Range and the trough axis shifts
to put Northern Alaska in the center of the trough. Winds weaken
across most of the region, except from the Lisburne Peninsula
through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island where northern
winds will continue through much of the week. Calmer winds across
most of the state are expected with afternoon showers and very
isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure over the southeastern Bering combined with high
pressure over the Arctic will help drive continuing easterly winds
across the Western and Northern Interior through Tuesday morning
before weakening. Winds gusting over 50 mph will be possible over
the Dalton Highway summits from Monday night through Tuesday
morning with this easterly flow. Dry northeast winds in the Yukon
Flats combined with generally warm temperatures in the Interior
this week will allow for min RH values to fall into the 20s. Rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and evening in the Western Interior, with additional isolated
storms possible in the higher terrain of the Central and Eastern
Interior. Southerly flow on the east side of the Bering Sea low
will support south winds through the Alaska Range passes beginning
tonight; through Isabel Pass and Delta Junction, winds could gust
to over 50 mph.
Conditions will gradually dry across the Interior moving into mid
week with general downsloping south flow across the Alaska Range,
with highs in the upper 50s or lower 60s and min RH values in the
20s and 30s. With both dry and windy conditions at Delta Junction
Tuesday, this could yield elevated conditions, but min RH values are
likely to remain just above critical levels. Isolated thunderstorms
will continue through midweek in the Western Interior, on the
southern slopes of the Brooks Range, and especially in the higher
terrain of the Eastern Interior. Increasing showers and isolated
storms with moister conditions will be possible across much of the
Interior on Thursday with a supporting wave aloft moving into the
area from the southeast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Yukon River: As of 1 PM Monday, the River Watch Team observed the
breakup front moving downstream past Emmonak and Alakanuk with a
30 mile run of thick bank to bank ice and high water upstream
still. Kwiguk Pass is jamming up and water will begin backing up
at Emmonak. Based on the very high water levels seen at the gauge
in Pilot Station, communities could see the highest water levels
since 1989. Water has begun to receed at Pilot Station, St.
Mary`s, and Mountain Village.
Flood warnings have been cancelled for Holy Cross, Russian Mission,
and Marshall. Flood Warnings remain in effect for Pilot Station, St.
Mary`s, Mountain Village, Emmonak and Alakanuk. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for the rest of the Yukon Delta.
Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
hydro information.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For late Thursday through next Monday.
At the start of the extended forecast period late Thursday, the
pattern is that of broad troughing centered around a low in the
Gulf of Alaska. Ridging in Canada and high pressure over Siberia
wear at the trough and cause it to shift somewhat unpredictably
over the weekend. There is a great deal of forecast uncertainty
regarding how the pattern evolves early next week. The most likely
outcome currently is remaining within this broad troughing pattern
keeping temperatures slightly moderated with afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible each day. A less likely, but more
dramatic solution begins building the Canadian ridge farther into
Alaska which would lead to a warmer and drier pattern which could
lead to worse fire weather conditions. Current estimates do not
have the potential ridge being very strong meaning that strong
lows moving through the pattern could more easily shift it should
a ridge begin developing.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
Flood Watch for AKZ825.
High Wind Warning for AKZ832.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-816-817-854-857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
&&
$$
Stokes
FIRE WEATHER- Saltzman
185
FXAK67 PAJK 260604
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1004 PM AKDT Mon May 25 2026
.UPDATE...update for the 06Z TAF issuance...
Only minor edits to the forecast this evening. Did increase winds
up Taiya Inlet into Skagway for Tuesday and have issued a Wind
Advisory starting at 7am and lasting until 10pm Tuesday.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track. PAtchy frost tonight across
portions of the northern panhandle if clearing can occur overnight
and before the winds begin to increase ahead of the next front.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Another front moves into the Northern Panhandle through Tuesday,
with increasing marine winds across the inner channels and
elevated seas along the coast.
.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/
A dry and sunny Memorial Day has set up for SE AK
as a ridge builds in the wake of a departing front. Clearing skies
have paved the way for temperatures to reach into the 60s across
the panhandle, with a few isolated areas potentially reaching as
warm as the low 70s through the remainder of the day. Overnight,
low temperatures will plunge into the 30s or low 40s for many
areas, as the clearer skies allow lingering heat to radiate back
into space. Patchy frost may form overnight for areas around the
Icy Strait Corridor northward, with the slight possibility of a
few patches of frost for areas further south like Petersburg.
The ridge responsible for the pleasant weather is being built by
energy moving downstream of an unseasonably strong 978 mb low in the
Aleutians. Unfortunately for those who enjoy clearer skies, the
ridge will not remain long. Through Monday night, the ridge will be
driven E into British Columbia by a warm front advancing E from the
parent low in the Aleutians. Although the front will weaken as it
approaches the coast, still expect a return of abundant rain showers
to Yakutat beginning late Monday night, and for similar conditions
to return to the central and northern panhandle alongside outer
coastal areas through the day on Tuesday. Rain showers will
generally remain on the lighter side, and much of the southern
panhandle will generally stay dry. The Icy Strait Corridor north
will see upwards of half of an inch of rain through Tuesday night
with these showers. Totals will steadily diminish as one goes
further south. Breezy conditions will ramp back up across the
area, with stronger winds focused around land-based areas from
Sitka northward, and gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph at times. Winds
across the inner channels will climb up to 15 to 20 kt, with Lynn
Canal reaching 25 kt. Winds and PoP chances remain elevated
through Wednesday as onshore flow coincides with a shortwave
approaching the southern panhandle. For additional information,
see the long term discussion.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Through Saturday/
The mid to long term forecast remains mainly unchanged as a low
along the Aleutian chain moves into the Gulf of Alaska late
Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will send a front into the
panhandle bringing widespread rain showers into SE AK. The NE gulf
coast is most likely to see periods of moderate showers with
slightly elevated winds. On the other hand, the southern panhandle
is more likely to see longer breaks between showers. The main
impact from this low, Wednesday into Thursday, will be increased
southwesterly swell along the gulf and into the gulf coast. The
significant wave heights along the gulf are anticipated to be
around 15 ft at a period of 15 to 20 seconds.
Winds greatly decrease Thursday and remain on the lighter side
into the weekend as the low continues to weaken. However, this low
will continue to allow shower development into the panhandle with
continued onshore flow. Overall QPF remains on the lower side as
these showers are anticipated to be on the lighter side. Similar
conditions will continue into the weekend with breaks in between
showers. Along with this, slightly warmer maximum temperatures,
than what we have seen, are anticipated late this week through the
weekend. There is even a slight chance, around 40%, that portions
of the southern panhandle could see temperatures into the low 70s
during the start of next week. We will continue to monitor this
potential as it is still a week away.
.AVIATION.../through 06z Wednesday/
VFR conditions ongoing across the majority of the panhandle with
SCT to BKN CIGs largely between 5000 to 10000 ft. Anticipating
VFR conditions to prevail overnight for much of the panhandle,
with the exception of the outer coastline and some protected areas
in the southern panhandle that will see some low-end MVFR to IFR
clouds developing overnight. These low level clouds will largely
clear through the morning Tuesday as daytime heating gets
underway. Areas along the outer coast will begin to see a more
widespread drop to MVFR CIGs in the early morning through the
afternoon as a front pushes in, beginning with Yakutat and moving
eastward through the day.
This front will bring Yakutat down to MVFR flight conditions
overnight ahead of the front, before diminishing to 1500 ft CIGs
as the front pushes in around 15-18z. This will bring SE-ly 15 kt
winds with 25 to 30 kt gusts around 18z before switching to a
more southerly direction and diminishing after the front passes by
00z. Areas near the coastline from Cross Sound over to Gustavus
down to Sitka will see a drop to MVFR CIGs with this front by
18-21z with brief elevated SE to S-ly winds following behind it.
Areas across the northern half of the panhandle that are more
inland than Gustavus and Hoonah are expected to stay VFR and not
see precipitation move in until the very end of the TAF period,
but will see some winds of up to 15 kt with some gusty conditions
increasing from late morning through the afternoon. Skagway will
see some more elevated winds beginning in the morning, with
sustained 20 to 25 kt winds by late morning into the afternoon and
gusts of 30 kt up to 35 kt possible midday.
S Panhandle from Kake to Petersburg southward still looking to
see an extended period of VFR through the end of the TAF period,
into late Tuesday evening as front primarily targets the N
Panhandle. Only exception will be more protected areas such as
Petersburg, Wrangell, and Klawock seeing some low level clouds
develop overnight with MVFR to IFR CIGs largely between 500 to
1200 ft.
.MARINE...
Outside: Coastal and Gulf winds have ranged between 15 to 25 kts
NW-ly through the afternoon as ridging shifts eastward across the
Gulf. Anticipating winds to shift W through the late evening with
wave heights diminishing to 6 to 9 ft with swell becoming more
SW-ly. By Tuesday morning, a 980 mb low near the AK Pen sends a
front across the Gulf with winds turning SW-ly and barrier jet
Gale formation from Icy Bay west to Cape Suckling. By Tuesday
evening, winds across the Gulf remain SW-ly around 10 to 15kts,
increased along the Gulf and SE-ly around 20kts.
Inside:
Winds have remained around 15kts or less across the inner
channels as pressure gradient diminishes, going near calm and
variable overnight. Winds quickly increase through Tuesday
afternoon with N/S channels as gradient tightens from arriving
frontal passage. Strongest S-ly winds are expected in N Lynn,
Taiya Inlet, and the upper arms of Glacier Bay, sustained near 25
kts with gusts up to 35 kts. Expecting these winds to slacken
slightly but continue through the evening and into early Wednesday
morning. Wave heights around 2 to 3 feet are expected within the
inner channels, up to 4 feet in the aforementioned locations
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ318.
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ319>321-325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-
672.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...NM
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