626
FXAK68 PAFC 080049
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 PM AKST Sat Nov 7 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A weak trough will continue to bring rain showers to the Whittier
and the Prince William Sound coast and snow to higher elevations
through late this evening. Similar conditions will persist on
Kodiak Island into tomorrow evening as a quasi- stationary low
remains near the island. Elsewhere in Southcentral, a mix of sun
and clouds are expected into tomorrow evening.
A North Pacific Low moves into the Gulf of Alaska Monday bringing
gale to storm force winds to the Northern Gulf with coastal rain
and inland snow. Warmer air will move into the higher elevations
through the day Monday changing the snow to a mix of rain/snow by
the afternoon hours. As the low progresses towards Southcentral,
wind gusts will increase and remain gusty in the usual gap
locations of Southcentral. Northeast wind flow out of the
Mat-Valley into the Anchorage Bowl as the storm moves closer to
the Kenai Peninsula favors a period of rain and snow showers
early this week. Model agreement with the location of heaviest
precipitation Monday and Tuesday from the storm continues with
Kodiak Island, Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound
remaining the areas where the highest precipitation will fall.
As the storm progresses closer to the Southern Kenai
Peninsula/Kodiak Island Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening,
northwest flow over Kodiak Island will bring rain changing to a
mix of rain/snow by late Monday evening. Precipitation continues
into Tuesday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
The quiet weather pattern continues across the region through the
rest of the weekend and into early next week. A weak Gulf low is
bringing a low cloud deck to the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest with
minimal precipitation chances. Longwave, broad troughing has been
generating rain and snow showers across the Aleutians and
Pribilof Islands, which is set to linger through early next week.
The system has also been advecting colder air across both the
Bering and Southwest Alaska, which will keep most of the showers
as a rain/snow mix. Given the weak northerly flow, and showery
nature of the precipitation, breaks in the clouds and periods of
sunshine are possible into early next week.
By Late Tuesday, a front connected to a North Pacific Low is
expected to approach Shemya and the Western Aleutians bringing
precipitation and easterly winds. Precipitation from this system
would most likely be in the form of rain. There is a 20% chance
of the Aleutian Chain west of Adak to see Gale force winds
Tuesday night. Disagreement lingers in the long-term model
ensembles with the track of this low. Some push the low northward,
crossing the Aleutians by midweek enter the Bering north of the
Aleutian Chain, while others keep it south of the Chain shifting
eastward. Stay tuned for any updates as it looks like this will
break our temporary quiet weather pattern
-SS
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...
The long term is characterized by lows moving into the Bering and
from the west and from the North Pacific. These lows will bring
active weather to Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska.
Wednesday starts off with a North Pacific low moving into the
Bering. Gale to storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain over
the Aleutians accompanies this low. Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska
sees lingering light rain and snow for coastal regions and Kodiak
Island with inland areas remaining drier. Thursday sees the low
move eastward, bringing winds and rain to Southcentral Alaska
while the back end of the low allows for continued winds and
rain/snow over the Aleutians and AKPEN. Friday has the low move
into the Gulf of Alaska with continued rain/snow and winds for
coastal Southcentral Alaska. A ridge builds over the Bering,
leading to drier and calmer conditions over much of Southwest
Alaska. However, northerly flow allows for gap winds in the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas. Also, another low
moves into the Shemya area from the west, bringing another round
of gusty winds and rainfall.
-JAR
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northeast winds will persist
through this evening. There is still a slight chance (around 20%)
for a few sprinkles or flurries this afternoon, but anything that
does make it to the surface should stay very light. Depending on
what happens with residual upper level cloud cover, low stratus
could fill in over the terminal overnight tonight and bring
ceilings down to MVFR or lower through Sunday morning. Again,
this will depend on how much clearing happens after dark this
evening, with more clearing increasing the chance for low stratus
development late tonight into Sunday morning.
&&
$$
770
FXAK69 PAFG 072243
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 PM AKST Sat Nov 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered light snow showers will continue across the
Interior through the weekend. Light accumulations are possible with
the most around the higher terrain of the White Mountains, Dalton
Highway Summits, Coldfoot, and Bettles areas.
- Another round of light snow showers is possible Monday night into
Tuesday as additional disturbances move northward from the Gulf of
Alaska. Confidence on exact snowfall amounts & coverage remains
relatively low with up to around another 0.5 to 1.5 inches possible
across the Dalton Highway Summits.
- Temperatures will trend downward toward seasonal normals early
next week with overnight lows potentially falling below zero by
midweek across the Eastern Interior & toward the end of the week in
the Fairbanks metro area, particularly where clearing skies occurs.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated to scattered light snow showers will continue across the
Seward Peninsula & portions of the Western Interior through the
weekend. The highest accumulations are expected north of the Yukon
River & along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range with
accumulations remaining light.
- Light snow shower chances will increase again across the Western
coastal Seward Peninsula area & the Bering Strait area from Sunday
into early next week with periods of light snow showers potentially
continuing through midweek. Light accumulations will be possible
Sunday into Monday with higher totals of up to around 2 inches
across St. Lawrence Island.
- Winds will increase across the Northwest Arctic Coast & Bering
Strait down to St. Lawrence Island for this weekend with gusts up to
around 30 mph possible. Winds will gradually begin to decrease for
that area Monday through midweek.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Periods of light snow showers will continue across the Arctic
Coast & the Brooks Range into late next week with generally light
accumulations expected.
- Winds along the Beaufort Sea Coast will continue to weaken through
this weekend before increasing again Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile, stronger winds will continue to shift westward toward the
Chukchi Sea Coast this weekend with areas of blowing snow and gusts
up to around 50 mph possible.
- Temperatures will trend toward seasonal normals through the
weekend & into early next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...Upper level shortwave trofs with associated upper-level
vorticity-maximums, providing lift, moving from Southeast to
Northwest periodically through the rest of this weekend & next week
will bring some periods of isolated to scattered light snow showers
to the region. A tightened pressure gradient from an area of high
pressure over the Arctic Ocean keeps gusty winds over the Arctic
Coast, generally through the forecast period. The exception will be
the Chukchi Sea Coast / Bering Strait area, where the wind gusts
will subside for the latter half of the weekend & Monday as the
gradient there relaxes a bit. Temperatures across the region will
finally be dropping to around normal values starting the latter half
of this weekend. The winds to the east will increase, once again,
for Monday night through the majority of the work-week as the
pressure gradient tightens up, again. This may cause a bit of
periodic blowing snow around the Arctic Coast during the peak of the
winds from Monday night through Tuesday night for areas that receive
any light snowfall, appreciably reducing visibilities, at times.
Then, winds over the region significantly subside by Friday &
heading into next weekend as that gradient relaxes as the Gulf low
weakens & drifts east-southeastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday Night/...The overall weather
pattern shows broad trofing is in place over northern Alaska
with a strong ridge of high pressure of about 1030mb set-up over
the Arctic Ocean. Looking up at the 500mb heights/vorticity
model forecast output, several weak shortwave trofs with
associated lift-providing vort-maxes look to move over our
region, rotating counterclockwise around a quick series of
strong SFC lows of about 970mb poised over the Gulf of Alaska.
These will bring some isolated to scattered snow showers with
light accumulations to the region through much of next week.
As we move into next week, colder & drier air advects into the
region, finally cooling the Interior down to around normal values,
which is confirmed by model forecast 850mb temperature & 700mb
moisture advection. Any breaks in the clouds during the overnight
hours, which are becoming more likely as time progresses, will
assist in this. Additional weaker shortwave trofs will continue to
rotate around the parent low in the Gulf as we move into next week,
with less energy & moisture to work with, bringing our AOR more snow
showers, but they will be lighter/weaker & more scattered/isolated
in coverage as time progresses.
As far as the winds are concerned, the tightened North to South
pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast down to the Bering Strait
will be generally keeping winds gusty between an area of high
pressure over the Arctic Ocean & lower pressure to the south. The
high has shifted westward for this weekend, keeping winds increased
for the Chukchi Sea Coast & Bering Strait areas & decreasing winds
for the Beaufort Sea Coast. The Arctic high will then shift back
eastward on Monday, increasing winds, once again, for the Beaufort
Sea coast & decreasing them for the Bering Strait area. These
increased winds over the Arctic Coastal areas may cause periodic
blowing snow, reducing visibilities, at times.
These wind gusts look to particularly ramp up later Monday night &
last through the Tuesday night timeframe & may get up to around 50
mph. As the snow character will be fluffy with any light snow
showers that may occur in that area as temperatures throughout the
atmospheric column will remain quite cold, the aforementioned strong
wind gusts could blow the snow around, significantly reduce
visibilities, impacting travel for several hours during that
timeframe. As this is getting out into the Long Term forecast
period, will continue to monitor the situation as the timeframe
grows closer & will provide further updates as expected conditions
warrant.
&&
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...The weather pattern
generally remains the same through the rest of the forecast period.
The strong Arctic high will remain parked over the Arctic Ocean, &
strong lows will continue to track from WNW to ESE through the Gulf
of Alaska with general broad trofing remaining over the majority of
Alaska with weaker shortwaves of energy rotating counterclockwise
around the Gulf lows, periodically bringing continued chances light
isolated to scattered snow showers through the period. Those snow
showers will be lighter & more isolated in nature as time progresses
as low pressure becomes less dominant. Along with this, the area
will see more breaks in the clouds over time, as well.
Gusty winds will remain in place over the Arctic Coastal areas due
to the tightened North to South pressure gradient that will already
be in place, causing some blowing snow at times, reducing
visibilities. Notably, temperatures will continue to cool to around
normal values for this time of year for the Interior along with the
rest of our AOR, potentially dipping to around or a bit below zero
for overnight lows, especially for some areas outside & to the East
& North of Fairbanks, especially if we see some more appreciable
breaks in the clouds, which looks more likely as we move further
into next week. This outcome is further supported by model forecast
CAA & less moisture advecting over the area for the period.
Winds for the Arctic Coastal areas start to taper down on Thursday
as a change in the general weather pattern takes place, & that will
continue through the end of the forecast period as the pressure
gradient relaxes between the aforementioned high over the Arctic
Ocean & low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska as the low slides east-
southeastward while gradually weakening.
.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...No coastal hazard concerns are
anticipated at this time.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ810>812-
856>858.
Gale Warning until noon AKST Sunday for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon
AKST Sunday for PKZ812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Sunday for
PKZ812-814-861.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ813-
860.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon
for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ814.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM AKST Sunday for PKZ814-
860.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ815-
859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM AKST Sunday
for PKZ817.
Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for PKZ857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for
PKZ859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM AKST Sunday for
PKZ859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon AKST Sunday for PKZ861.
&&
$$
KEY MESSAGES...Chambers
SYNOPSIS.......Chambers
SHORT TERM.....Chambers
LONG TERM......Chambers
COASTAL........Chambers
019
FXAK67 PAJK 080553
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
853 PM AKST Sat Nov 7 2026
.UPDATE...update to the aviation and long term discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- N winds in the northern panhandle will continue to increase
this evening.
- Generally deteriorating conditions expected into Sunday.
- Strong storm force gulf low pressure system expected for Sunday
night through Monday bringing rain and high winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../through Monday/...An active weather pattern
persists for the panhandle through the next few days with a low
currently moving into the southern panhandle and another one on
the way for Monday. Gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall is
expected for the panhandle south of the Icy Strait Corridor into
Sunday, with showers keeping rain and clouds in the forecast into
the evening before the next big low moves into the Gulf. A near
955 mb low is expected to jump into the central gulf and move
northwest, sweeping a strong, moist front across the panhandle for
Monday. Confidence has increased on a swath of storm force
sustained winds extending northward along the coastline of the
eastern Gulf through Monday morning, and around 0.5 to 1.5 inches
of rainfall is expected for the entirety of the panhandle in 24
hours. A high wind watch has been issued for Prince of Wales
Island, Baranof Island, and the southern tip of Kuiu Island for
winds increasing to 50 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. Uncertainty
remains on how easily the strong winds aloft will mix down to the
surface.
As this front traverses through the panhandle, the higher
elevations of the Haines and Klondike Highways can expect to see
this precipitation manifest as snow. Temperatures below freezing
and a snow level below 1000 ft indicate that upper elevations of
both highways will see at least a few inches of snow on Monday.
Due to mid-level flow being more southeasterly as the system moves
in, the thinking is that White Pass may get more shadowed than
initially anticipated. This pattern also indicates that Haines
Customs may see more snow than initially anticipated, with
currently up to 12 inches possible in 24 hours Monday. Confidence
will increase in the coming days on whether these watches will be
upgraded.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...Active weather looks to continue
for the long term period with multiple lows moving into the Gulf
and subsequently past the panhandle bringing more rain and wind to
the area. Starting Tuesday evening, the larger low which is
expected to be near Kodiak will have a smaller, more compact low
potentially in the around 970mb moving northward before phasing
with the original circulation Tuesday morning. This will bring a
reinforcing shot of moisture to the panhandle as well as more
winds to the area. With cold air at 850mb in Canada sitting around
-7C, it is possible that the northern panhandle could see some
mixed precipitation, especially places not at sea level.
Behind these two lows, a third circulation looks for move into the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning which will bring
another reinforcing round of moisture and wind. Once these lows
dissipate, our attention then turns towards the potential of a low
moving up the Aleutian chain and into the western Gulf Thursday.
Current ensemble guidance shows this system crossing the Gulf Friday
into Saturday while higher pressure remains the Interior and the
Yukon. One thing that will need to be watched is if an of high
pressure does develop as some ensemble members are hinting at. But
at this moment, more members are agreement that a high does not
form. The big area of uncertainty is the exact track and strength of
this low as there is some divergence regarding this feature. Getting
towards the end of the week, with some of the cooler air spilling
over from Canada, it will be more possible to see some mixed
precipitation for places like Haines, Skagway, and potentially
Yakutat starting Thursday. The Icy Strait corridor could see some
mixed potentially for next weekend if the guidance continues with
the colder overnight lows.
&&
.AVIATION.../Through Sunday evening/...A disturbance pushing into
the southern panhandle will spread multiple bands of showers
south to north across the panhandle. MVFR flight conditions across
the south this evening will gradually spread northward tonight
through the panhandle. For PAHN, PAGY and possibly PAJN, colder
temps from the persistent northerly flow could lead to some mixed
precipitation and thus more VIS reductions. More MVFR flight
conditions will be possible tomorrow as another band of showers
spreads north across the panhandle. For PAYA, VFR flight
conditions will likely prevail, but there will be a chance for
light mixed showers Sunday afternoon that could bring brief MVFR
flight conditions. Winds generally less than 10 kt, although
PAGY, PAHN, PAKT and PAKW could occasionally see winds up to 15
kt. Elevated easterly winds up to 2kft aloft around 25-35kt
through this evening could lead to LLWS for southern panhandle and
through the Gastineau Channel near PAJN.
&&
.MARINE...The gale force low passing just to the west of Haida
Gwaii tonight weakens over the southeastern GulfAK by Sunday
morning. Gale warnings continue through 9 PM AKST this evening
around the Dixon Entrance area and offshore to the west into the
southeastern GulfAK zones. Over the inside waters, we continue
several Small Craft Advisories over the inner channels tonight
with enhanced northerly to easterly flow across the area. That
outflow will be fairly short lived and not overly strong, with
winds diminishing by early morning. Our attention then turns to
Sunday night as we continue to see a fairly strong low (down to
955 mb) deepening over the central Gulf of Alaska Sunday night
with the first wrap band/front of higher winds moving up the
central and eastern GulfAK Sunday night through the day Monday. We
have posted the Storm Warnings for the offshore zones (312/311)
starting Sunday night...with potential winds 50 kt gusting to 60
kt and seas building to around 35 ft over the eastern and northern
GulfAK Monday into Monday night. We will likely be adding the
additional marine zones closer to the outer coast of SE Alaska
later tonight to the Storm Warnings and Gale Warnings for that
system on Monday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318-325.
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night for AKZ318-319.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for AKZ323-327-328.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-033-034-036-053-
642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JG
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