696
FXAK68 PAFC 280055
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKDT Mon Jul 27 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Monday through Wednesday)...
Satellite imagery showed a surface low and cold front continuing
to move south today with radar indicated and ground observations
confirmed scattered rain showers across most of Southcentral. The
chance for isolated lightning strikes will continue to move
northward through the evening hours as southerly flow through the
Copper Basin and Susitna Valley persists.
As a low currently over Dillingham moves southeastward the next 48
hours, the aforementioned cold front will rotate northwestward
allowing for a deeper area of moisture to work into Southcentral.
This leads to a more widespread coverage of rain showers for most
locations overnight into tomorrow afternoon. However, the
greatest rain showers are expected from the Northern Susitna
Valley to the Copper River Basin.
Rainfall amounts in the Susitna Valley and Northern Copper River
Basin ranging from 0.50" to 1.00" are at a 60-80% possibility with
a 30% to 50% chance of exceeding 1.00" of rain for the Susitna
Valley. While these amounts are still not expected to cause any
additional flooding, it will be worth watching as many streams and
rivers in the Susitna Valley remain elevated along with already
saturated ground.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday
afternoon)...
Areas of rain today will taper off through tonight/tomorrow
morning. Generally warm and dry from tomorrow through Thursday,
but a storm system moving into the Western Bering and Adak/Atka
Wednesday evening will mark the beginning of a transition towards
more unsettled weather. The primary hazards to monitor will be a
3-4 day stretch of warmer than usual temperatures (70-75 degrees)
for parts of Bristol Bay and interior Southwest. Otherwise, the
fog forecast remains the most challenging aspect of the forecast.
Diving into the details... a front and its associated weak,
elongated surface low is bringing rain as it slides southeastwards
just to the west of the Pribilof Islands. Simultaneously, a low
near Kodiak Island is bringing rain showers to the Lake Iliamna
area and to the northern Alaska Peninsula. A tightening surface
pressure gradient between a ridge in the Bering Sea and these two
lows is leading to 20-30 kt winds, with gusts to 35 kt, along the
Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula.
As these lows move southwards and out of the area tonight, expect
a return to drier conditions for tomorrow and Wednesday. For the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, this will likely mean a return of
low clouds and fog for Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday
afternoon, a low coming from the west will displace the ridge
eastwards, leading to widespread light to moderate rain and winds
to 20-30 kt by Thursday.
For Southwest Alaska, tomorrow will mark the beginning of about
3-4 days of warmer temperatures as higher pressure builds in.
Compared to yesterday, models have trended a bit warmer,
especially as a slowing down of the Bering Sea low will allow for
the ridge to persist for a bit longer over Southwest Alaska. While
much of Southwest will see daytime highs in the 60s to 70s, the
areas to watch will be from Bristol Bay north to Kuskokwim Valley,
where there will likely be a prolonged period of daytime highs
above 70 degrees. For Bristol Bay, conditions like these occur
about once a year, and typically towards the end of July. With
more people out and about conducting subsistence activities, it`s
a good idea to plan for these warmer temperatures, especially as
several days in a row of 70+ degree temperatures could lead to
cumulative heat stress. The good news is that overnight lows will
dip to 45-50 degrees, providing the opportunity for some cooling
down overnight. We`ll continue to monitor these conditions,
especially as observed temperatures in recent days have been
warmer than predicted. As such, it`s possible that our forecast
may trend warmer, and the threat of warmer temperatures could be
more pronounced than currently anticipated. Stay tuned.
-KC
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
The trend towards warmer, drier conditions continues through the
long term period as high pressure remains over much of mainland
Alaska and the northern Gulf of Alaska. Broad troughing is
forecast to slide across the southern Bering and Aleutians Friday
through Saturday. While not particularly strong, intermittent rain
chances are likely beneath and downstream of the trough, with the
greatest chance for rain stretching from Unalaska and Saint Paul
to coastal Southwest Alaska through Saturday. By Sunday into early
next week, the low tracks into the North Pacific with its front
remaining well south of the northern Gulf coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this evening. A few
showers could move over the terminal during the remainder of the
afternoon, but steadier rain should hold off until later tonight.
Gusty winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm will gradually
decrease this evening and mostly shut off by the early morning
hours. Ceilings could drop into MVFR range as steady, light rain
begins overnight tonight.
&&
$$
549
FXAK69 PAFG 272207
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 PM AKDT Mon Jul 27 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A cold front that had swept in from the north brought
with it some early season cool weather to the North Slope and the
Brooks Range, with low temperatures overnight getting below
freezing. Further south, periods of rain have moved along with the
front, and will continue to push across the south central &
southeastern interior through this evening. By Tuesday, the parent
trough will be pushing off to the east while a ridge begins to build-
in over the Western Coast and the Western Interior. A shortwave
trough moving out of the NW over the ridge Wednesday into Thursday
will bring chances of precipitation back to the North Slope and for
much of the central and eastern interior. Behind the second front,
conditions trend warmer and drier heading into the weekend and into
next week as a ridge of high pressure builds-in from the west with
some light isolated showers primarily confined to the west coast
where they will be experiencing onshore-flow.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A cold front continues to track southeastward across the
Interior Monday afternoon. A few isolated afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front with the scattered
showers, wind gusts to around 20 to 30 mph, and cooler
temperatures expected. Precipitation will remain primarily
around the southeastern Interior and along the central and
eastern Alaska Range.
- Rainfall totals into Monday evening will remain light overall
with amounts greater than 0.10" most likely nearer to the
Alaska Range. A few afternoon thunderstorms can`t be ruled out,
especially across the southeastern Interior Monday afternoon.
- A brief warming and drying period sets in for Tuesday and
Wednesday as highs return to the 60s to low 70s ahead of another
cold front moving southeastward across the Interior late
Wednesday into Thursday with isolated rain showers and breezy
winds.
- Following the secondary midweek front, warmer and drier
conditions are expected to return for late in the week into
next week, as highs return to the 70s to low 80s as a ridge
builds-in.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Warmer and drier conditions return through Tuesday ahead of
another cold front moving into northwest Alaska for Wednesday
into Thursday with scattered rain showers and breezy winds.
- Following the midweek/secondary front, warmer and drier
conditions are expected to return for late in the week into
next week as a ridge builds-in with isolated showers along the
coast from the onshore-flow. Highs will return to 60s/70s for
most with locally cooler conditions along the coast.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures have been trending cooler this afternoon in the
wake of the cold front which passed through on Sunday.
- Dry conditions have built-in from west to east today and we will
see a warming-trend through midweek. A secondary cold front
remains on track to move-in Wednesday into Thursday with
scattered showers and gusty winds.
- Following the secondary midweek front, a ridge of high pressure
builds-in, giving warmer and drier conditions for later in the
week into next week with isolated showers along the coast from
the onshore-flow. Highs will return to 60s/70s for most with
locally cooler conditions along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Through Wednesday.
The cold front and its associated short-wave trough have moved off
to the East, primarily impacting the southeastern Interior(mainly
Delta Junction, southeastward, including Tok) this afternoon. A few
isolated thunderstorms have developed along & ahead of the front
mainly near the ALCAN border this afternoon. Those will diminish and
depart the region through the evening.
As the front departs from the region on Tuesday, drier weather
returns and temperatures begin to rebound. While cooler weather will
linger across the Brooks Range and the North Slope, temperatures
will reach into the 60s for areas further south on Tuesday. On
Wednesday, widespread upper 60s with some 70s are expected for areas
near sea level, barring marine-influenced locations where
temperatures in the 50s and low 60s linger. Another shortwave trough
begins moving in from the NW late on Tuesday. Its corresponding
front will bring gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph along the coast from
the Lisburne Peninsula northward. Some light rain will likewise move
in, but nothing in the way of noteworthy accumulations.
Precipitation will largely fade away as the front tries to move
south of the Brooks Range through Wednesday as upsloping wrings-out
most of the available moisture.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front that is moving through Eastern AK this afternoon has
provided another round of wetting rains to the Alaska Range,
Fortymile Country, Eastern Yukon Flats, and Brooks Range. The Upper
Tanana Valley southeast of Delta Junction has low chances for
wetting rains, but will likely see a few light rain showers.
Otherwise, the remainder of Northern Alaska will be mostly dry with
cooler than normal temperatures. Min RHs will be drying in the
Western Interior, around 30 to 40% with the Central/Eastern Interior
sitting around 45 to 65%. Temperatures will rise into the 60s to
near 70 for most of the area on Tuesday with RHs around 30 to 40%
across Northern Alaska. Another cold front moves into the Brooks
Range on Wednesday. Ahead of this front will be gusty southwest
winds across the Interior and West Coast on Wednesday with gusts
around 20 to 30 mph. This front traverses across the Brooks Range
Wednesday night and loses some steam by Thursday, only allowing for
a few showers in the Interior. Temperatures wont change too much
from this front as ridging builds in shortly after the frontal
passage. By Friday and through the weekend, it is becoming
increasingly more likely to see temperatures rise above normal, back
well into the 70s and potentially 80s with RHs in the 30s and
possibly the 20s in the driest areas. This is something that is
being monitored very closely because there may be a prolonged period
of warm/dry weather with chances for thunderstorms once again as we
head into the first half of August.
Overall, there is not a ton of fire weather concerns this week with
mild temperatures and moderate min relative humidities. However,
this will change heading into the weekend and next week as a pattern
change increasing temperatures and decreasing relative humidities is
looking more likely to occur.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No major concerns at this time. Rivers draining the Brooks Range
will rise slightly due to the recent rain and melting snowfall, but
no flooding is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
As we head into the long term period beginning on Thursday, we will
be seeing the beginning of a pattern change as a NPAC ridge extends
northward over mainland AK. This will begin to bring a period of
warmer temperatures to most of Northern Alaska. The exception may be
the West Coast and NW Arctic Coast as there is some uncertainty in
the placement of a broad longwave trough extending from the North
Pole to the Bering. If the ridge is weaker, the trough will be
farther east over Western AK and if it is stronger, the trough will
be farther west over the Bering. The difference is stark as a
farther east trough brings cooler temperatures and chances for rain
while a farther west trough brings warmer and drier conditions.
Regardless, the ridge should move east towards The Yukon this
weekend keeping the Central/Eastern Interior warmer and drier.
Towards Sunday and into next week, guidance diverges a bit more as
there may be a strong Arctic trough dropping southeast, thus
battling the ridge Sunday into Monday. The strength of the ridge
will determine how quickly it moves out, but given the projected
strength being nearly 1 to 2 sigma stronger than the mean, it may
not budge easily. There is low to medium confidence in the forecast
going into next week, but it is increasing towards a solution which
keeps the ridge as the more predominant weather feature across much
of Northern Alaska.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Minor water rises are
expected near Kotzebue Sound once again on Wednesday with west to
southwest winds sustained around 15 to 25 mph from Wednesday morning
through Wednesday evening. Water levels will rise slightly Wednesday
morning and into the afternoon from Kotzebue to Kivalina. Expected
rises are around 1 to 2 feet and this may result in minor erosion.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
&&
$$
805
FXAK67 PAJK 280558 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
958 PM AKDT Mon Jul 27 2026
.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Showers continuing today with partial clearing across the north
later this afternoon and into Tuesday.
- Another low and front will approach from the south and spread
steadier rain into the southern panhandle tonight into Tuesday,
then further north Tuesday night.
- Lighter winds will generally prevail, with occasionally breezy
winds for southern panhandle and near Skagway.
SHORT TERM...Partial clearing in the northern panhandle has
allowed for some more daytime heating and thus instability,
leading to some isolated light showers along the Icy Strait
corridor and southward to Angoon and Sitka. These are expected to
diminish into the evening hours, with cloud cover diminishing once
more. For the panhandle south of Frederick Sound, a low
approaching Haida Gwaii will continue northward into Dixon
Entrance tonight bringing a more steady dose of showers spreading
northward into Tuesday. Orographic enhancement combined with
positive vorticity advection aloft is likely to produce more
enhanced shower activity for the southern panhandle Tuesday
afternoon with isolated thunder also possible. Even without
thunder though, the primary message is these heavier showers
could prove hazardous to those on the water due to quick drops in
visibility as well as gusty erratic winds in the vicinity.
While the highest likelihood for these heavier showers is
primarily expected from Prince of Wales Island eastward all the
way to Hyder, the northward progression of the low could push them
as far north as Frederick Sound by Tuesday evening before they
are expected to begin weakening as instability decreases.
Cloud cover is expected to build in over the southern panhandle as
the low progresses northward, however from Icy Strait northward
cloud cover is expected to remain minimal aside from fair weather
cumulus popping up in the afternoon. This should allow for
slightly higher afternoon highs on Tuesday to the mid to upper
60s, while the southern panhandle can expect temps to remain in
the low to mid 60s, with little variation overnight. Wednesday
looks to be a small break between systems as this first one
continues to weaken and fall apart as it moves inland Wednesday.
See the long term discussion below for more on the continuing
unsettled pattern for the second half of this week.
LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/...A generally wetter
pattern remains in place for SE AK through the long term period.
There will be a few drier breaks, especially for the north, but
otherwise rain continues. Thursday morning will start off a little
drier before a low, sends a few rounds of precipitation toward the
panhandle. The highest rain totals will be over the south, but there
is still high variability in the exact totals. Currently the spread
for Thursday, over the southern panhandle in a 24 hour time span, is
around 0.1 inches for the NBM 25th percentile and around 1.5 inches
for the NBM 75th percentile. The mean is around 0.8 inches in 24
hours. The higher amounts will depend on if another low develops
slightly closer to the panhandle, just SW of Prince of Wales Island.
As this same low moves eastward, it will continue to send waves of
precipitation over the area. No impacts are anticipated, but there
are likely to be periods of slightly heavier rain as showers
persist.
Along with rain, near to slightly above average temperatures will
begin across the area as more northerly flow persists and 850 mb
temperatures warm Thursday into the weekend. High temperatures are
likely to reach into high 60s to the low to mid 70s. Warmest
locations look to be across the north where cloud cover will remain
lower.
AVIATION...The scattered showers from this afternoon have
diminished for most areas except for the far southern panhandle.
Most areas are reporting VFR conditions with winds on the lighter
side. Waves of showers will continue to be the theme of the next
24 hours with most of those showers located across the southern
half of the panhandle especially into Tuesday. Northern panhandle
will likely remain mostly VFR (slight possibility of some fog or
low clouds Tuesday morning) into Tuesday afternoon while the
southern panhandle will see periods of MVFR conditions due to the
precipitation. Winds remain rather low with most areas mainly
seeing sea breeze circulations up to 15 kt tomorrow afternoon.
MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
Monday afternoon easterly winds are building for southern waters
and into Dixon Entrance as a low moves toward Haida Gwaii, with
satellite wind passes highlighting fresh breezes. North of Cape
Edgecumbe, winds are light and out of the southeast. Current sea
state is dominated by multiple wave groups: 20+ seconds south from
the far south pacific, a 15ish second southeasterly group from a
tropical system several days ago, and some wind wave chop in the
south. Combined these groups are bringing significant wave heights
of 2 to 4 feet, with wind waves dominating in Dixon.
As a low makes landfall in the south Tuesday, northwest winds of
moderate to fresh breezes build along much of the coast, with
northerly winds of moderate breezes being pulled out of Chatham
Strait. Wind wave of 5 to 7 ft begin dominating coastal waters
west of PoW and Dixon, with significant waves building to 5 ft
from Cape Ommaney to 3 to 4 ft toward the Fairweather Grounds and
Cape St. Elias.
Smaller vessels operating on the western coast of Prince of Wales
(near Heceta, Esquibal, Baker, and Noyes Islands) should be aware
of these northwesterly winds waves.
A more prominent system sets up Thursday, bringing strong breezes
to much of the southern waters.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Monday highest winds of strong breezes are currently in northern
Lynn Canal, with moderate breezes in Clarence. Elsewhere winds are
gentle breezes to light. Moving through the late afternoon a low
continues to approach Haida Gwaii, with the primary focus for
waters along and south of Frederick Sound. As winds to slowly back
down this evening, expect the general flow to become northerly
through much of the inside into the early morning hours of
Tuesday. Mariners navigating southern Chatham and perhaps the
exposed ocean entrance of Sumner Strait will likely see a few
hours of moderate breezes out of the north to northeast Tuesday
AM. Folks transiting the Inside Passage will also feel northerly
winds of moderate to fresh breezes in southern Clarence and
Revilla early Tuesday.
As the low shifts into the southern Alexander Archipelago Tuesday
afternoon, winds should generally begin to diminish. The
exception will be southern Clarence Strait and Revilla Channel
(Revillagigedo Channel) where northerly winds will switch to the
south, building to moderate to fresh breezes Tuesday afternoon
into early Wednesday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP
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