202
FXAK68 PAFC 010101
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 PM AKDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday afternoon)...
Southcentral Alaska sits in a col between upper level ridging to
the northeast and southwest, and upper level lows to the
northwest and southeast. This will bring divergent weather across
the region through midweek.
For Kodiak Island and Southern Kenai Peninsula, the low to the
northwest will push in a very moist front by early tomorrow
morning. Satellite imagery currently shows precipitable water
values of over 1.5 inches as the front makes its way across the
Bering Sea. For Kodiak Island, 3-day rain totals could be around
2-3 inches as the front stalls overhead through Thursday. Southern
Kenai Peninsula will be on the periphery of this front, so skies
will be cloudy but rain amounts will be much, much lower.
Mariners transiting around the Barren Islands should beware of
winds to gale force tomorrow as the front moves through on Tuesday.
For the remainder of Southcentral Alaska, generally expect warmer
and more showery conditions (with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms) under the influence of both the ridge to the north
and the low near Southeast Alaska. For today, showers are
tapering off in the wake of an upper level shortwave that moved
across the region this morning. With skies clearing, warmer
surface temperatures are helping to promote convection. There is a
chance for isolated thunderstorms across the Copper River Basin
this afternoon and evening, though the overall likelihood is lower
due to the environment being tempered by the rain and fog from
earlier today. Tomorrow looks even less favorable for showers or
thunderstorms as the ridge nudges in and will likely suppress
convection.
By Wednesday afternoon, however, a robust shortwave diving south
from the Arctic will bring the highest chances for thunderstorms
so far this week. While instability does not look very impressive,
favorable upper level dynamics and storm motion could lead to
thunderstorms initiating along the northern Copper River Basin,
then moving southwestward. The footprint for these thunderstorms
could extend over much of the Copper River Basin, and perhaps even
reaching the Chugach Mountains to the south and west. Easterly
waves transiting across Southcentral on Thursday could also bring
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, but where these storms
initiate will depend on how far south the ridge to our north will
nudge into Southcentral, which will, in turn, will affect how far
south these easterly waves are displaced as they exit out of
Canada.
-KC
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night)...
A mature low pressure system in the Bering Sea is currently
pushing a strong front across Alaska`s west coast bringing gusty
southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain to the region. Abundant
tropical moisture associated with the system will allow continued
rainfall through tomorrow for Southwest Alaska. Rain continues to
linger across mainland Southwest through Tuesday evening with the
heaviest along the southern AKPEN as the low tracks to the
eastern Bering. The development of a triple point low to the south
of the AKPEN will continue to bring additional rainfall to the
AKPEN, Bristol Bay, and Southwest Alaska coast into Wednesday.
A ridge builds in behind the low across the rest of the Bering
with quieter weather across the Western and Central Aleutians
tomorrow evening as the Eastern Aleutians contend with northerly
flow and rain showers downstream of the ridge. Areas of fog are
likely to redevelop for the western Bering and Aleutians,
underneath the ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Starting off the long term is the presence of an upper high in
northern Alaska. This, combined with an upper low in the Gulf of
Alaska will allow easterly flow into inland areas of
Southcentral. This flow will allow for chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the Copper River Basin, and the Talkeetna
Mountains for the 4th of July. Easterly storm motion may allow
some of these showers and thunderstorms to stream into the Susitna
Valley. Southwest Alaska will have a large low in the Bering
slowly make its way eastward. Heavy rainfall will impact the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula with the mainland coast
seeing rain by Saturday. The low will stall out just off the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and will continue to send fronts eastward,
bringing heavy rain to the Southwest mainland for the rest of the
weekend and into Monday.
Southcentral will see some ridging build in on Saturday. This
will result in a drying and warming trend for the region. The
Copper River Basin, Talkeetna Mountains, and the Susitna Valley
will retain chances for thunderstorms despite the ridge. This
drying trend will not last too long as a front from the low in
the Bering will arrive on Saturday. Heavy rainfall is expected
first in Kodiak on Saturday afternoon, then at the Southcentral
coastline. Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley may receive rainfall
from this front as well if it orients correctly. This scenario is
uncertain as model agreement is quite poor at this moment.
Additional weaker fronts push into the Gulf into Monday with the
potential for scattered rainfall.
-JAR
&&.AVIATION...
PANC...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Some lower clouds between 3000 and 5000 ft will linger through
Cook Inlet this afternoon, but should they move over the Terminal
this afternoon they will likely burn off. There`s a chance the
MVFR cigs from this morning will rematerialize between 9Z and 15Z
but increasing southeasterly flow will allow conditions to dry
and cigs to remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.
Light winds will persist, changing between southerly and westerly.
&&
$$
456
FXAK69 PAFG 302054
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1254 PM AKDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend across the Interior continues this
week. A low is approaching the West Coast and spreading rain
from Bristol Bay north to the Seward Peninsula. Areas of low
clouds and fog at night across the Central and Eastern Arctic
Coast. Widely scattered thunderstorms expected again this
afternoon in the Fortymile Country.
&&
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- The Southeastern Interior from the Fortymile Country south
through the Upper Tanana Valley to the Eastern Alaska Range will
have showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday.
- Temperatures in the mid 70s today in most Interior valleys
soar into the mid 80s on Wednesday.
- Hot...dry and windy conditions will develop Wednesday in the
higher terrain of the central and eastern interior increasing
wildfire concerns.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A Bering Sea storm is spreading rain into the West Coast and
Western Interior from the Seward Peninsula south to Bristol Bay.
These rains will be heaviest Monday, but lighter showers may
persist through mid week.
- Southeasterly winds over western Alaska increase tonight into
Tuesday. Sustained values of 20 to 30 mph expected for most
areas in Bering Sea through the Bering Strait. Southeast winds
15 to 25 mph develop late tonight through the Norton and
Kotzebue Sounds.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low stratus and fog continue at night along the Eastern Arctic
Coast. Conditions should improve during the day.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the eastern
Brooks Range through Tuesday. Isolated showers possible over the
Western Brooks Range late tonight and Tuesday.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure will strengthen over northeast Alaska
the next several days. The northeasterly flow around this high
will focus showers and thunderstorms over the Fortymile Country
down into the eastern Alaskan Range. This will be enhanced today
by wrap around flow from the low over the Gulf of Alaska. Storm
activity will also be enhanced early on Wednesday as a strong
short wave moves down from the Northern Yukon. In the west a
Bering Sea low pressure system is spreading rain and breezy
southeasterly winds over the Western Interior from the Bristol Bay
north to the Seward Peninsula through Tuesday. The warming and
drying trend will continue this week for the rest of the
Interior...the Brooks Range and the North Slope. Hot...dry and
windy conditions are expected in the higher terrain of the central
and eastern interior on Wednesday. A fire weather watch for
Wednesday was coordinated with AICC and posted accordingly. As a
precaution we expanded this watch to include the Fairbanks area
and areas to the west (marginal winds). Smoke should begin to
become an issue again later this week. We are already seeing more
haze in the lower atmosphere south of Fairbanks. Winds drop off on
Thursday but hot and dry conditions continue. In the extended
more of the same with persistence under the High Pressure ridge
centered over the North Slope Borough. Shortwaves will undercut
the ridge in the easterly flow and should increase thunderstorm
coverage over the higher terrain of western and central Alaska
this weekend. Temperatures in the Interior and along the North
Slope will be the hottest they have been so far in 2025.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting an increase in fire weather to develop through the week
as temperatures reach into the mid 80s and RH drops below 30%
through a majority of the interior. The driest conditions start to
develop Wednesday; current forecast confidence suggests minimum
RH near 15 to 20%, areas of highest concern essentially east of
Fairbanks to the ALCAN border. Furthermore, Wednesday winds become
more organized from the northeast, with sustained winds near
10mph and gusts reaching 15 to 20mph. With that said,
gaps/channels in terrain will see stronger winds. Across the
western portions of the region from Seward Peninsula to Bristol
Bay expecting cooler and wetter weather, with widespread rain.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns along the rivers. No impacts are expected from the rain
in the west or along the eastern Alaska Range.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ931>947-949-953.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&
$$
Maier/Park
068
FXAK67 PAJK 302236
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
236 PM AKDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.SHORT TERM...
Key messages:
- Precipitation and overcast skies continue for a majority of the
panhandle.
- A low remains near the eastern gulf as it weakens and moves
inland.
Details: A band of precipitation has moved north across the
panhandle as of early this afternoon. We are continuing to watch
this band as it increases precipitation rates to around 0.1 to 0.15
inch per hour rates as it moves over an area. This band of
precipitation has already begun to weaken leaving areas of light
rain across the panhandle. This light rain will continue into
tomorrow as the low in the eastern gulf weakens and moves inland.
A ridge developing over the gulf Tuesday will also help to move the
low inland. This ridge moves over the eastern gulf late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will help to lighten rain rates on Tuesday to a 60%
to 70% chance of 0.1 inches in 6 hours. That being said, an upper
level low will help to continue that light rain. Most of this rain
will be focused on the central panhandle, but no impacts are
expected. Winds will remain light in the short term with the daily
increase in winds in N. Lynn Canal into Skagway due to a thermal
gradient.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
We are looking for a pattern shift starting Wednesday as broad low
pressure over the eastern GULFAK weakens and weak ridging starts
to setup over SEAK. While a drier trend to the forecast Wednesday
into the weekend is expected, we won`t be rain free. The weak
nature of the ridge with periods of weak upper energy ejecting out
of the central GULFAK upper level low means that scattered showers
will still be around for Thursday and through the 4th of July
weekend. It should not be a washout and guidance does not have any
heavy precipitation through Saturday. We will have to watch an
approaching front moving east out of the central GULFAK on
Sunday. /Garmon
&&
.AVIATION...
Weak low pressure over the eastern GULFAK just NW of Haida Gwaii
will continue to lift to the N through tonight...with an occluded
front moving north across the central Panhandle through tonight.
The associated band of showers currently over the central
panhandle will continue to move north through the evening hours.
The pressure gradient is relaxing as the low weakens, and
generally winds will go lighter through the evening most areas.
The northern Panhandle should remain generally MVFR to VFR
overnight with the central and southern Panhandle seeing MVFR to
IFR in lower ceilings and rain. /Garmon
&&
.MARINE...
Outside: As the low moves northeast into the panhandle, winds along
the gulf slight increase to 15 to 20 kts. The strongest of these
winds are near dixon entrance with wind gusts near 25 to 30 kts.
These stronger winds will decrease tonight through tomorrow
before becoming 5 to 10 kts along the outside waters. The highest
waves are near dixon entrance at 5 ft with a period of around 10
seconds. Waves will also subside through tomorrow to near 3 ft.
Inside: As the low has moved northward, winds have changed direction
within the southern inner channels to become southerly, with the
central to northern inner channels remaining northerly. As this low
diminishes, wind directions across the channels will become
southerly by tomorrow afternoon. Tonight, the northerly winds across
N. Lynn Canal will be overcome by a thermal gradient that will allow
for southerly winds of 15 to 20 kts. This is expected to occur near
Eldred Rock to Taiya Inlet today and tomorrow. Otherwise, the other
windy area will be near Clarence Strait. In Clarence Strait,
southerly winds of 15 to 20 kts are expected to continue before
diminishing tonight into tomorrow, to 10 kts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Taku River is continuing to steadily rise as
water from the glaicer dammed lake, Lake No Lake, along the
Tulsequah Glacier drains. The river will rise through the next 18
to 24hrs and crest late Tuesday morning just below bankfull
levels of 42 feet. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for
this event with no flooding impacts expected. People who recreate
along the Taku River and Taku Inlet should remain aware of the
rising water conditions along with any debris floating down the
river.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....JG
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...EAB
HYDROLOGY...ABJ
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