103
FXAK68 PAFC 031355
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...
The broad negatively-tilted upper level trough that has been the
subject of recent discussions can be seen very well on satellite
imagery early this morning as the cloud band that stretches from
Kodiak to eastern Norton Sound. Ahead of this feature, there are
numerous shortwaves embedded in the south-to-southeast flow which
are bringing in scattered snow or rain showers to the region. One
of the stronger waves moved across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and
then across Anchorage overnight. Behind this wave there is
generally just disorganized snow showers across the Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage and into the Mat-Su. This supports more of a
scattered snow showers regime instead of there being enough to
call the showers numerous in coverage. What is interesting is that
with this upper level trough is that it is not moving a whole lot
for the next few days. This will keep the area from the Kenai
Peninsula to Prince William Sound and areas north in an overall
pattern that supports persistent, but disorganized, rain and snow
showers. However, most of the models show periods of more
organized shower activity in conjunction with any number or weak
shortwaves moving through. the issue is that there is little to
no model agreement on when and where any of these waves will
develop and move. This is not unusual with weak upper level waves
in such a pattern. However, it does keep the door open for a more
organized wave to develop and drop a few inches of surprise snow
over an area. This will generally be the case for the next few
days. Perhaps the biggest change will be a slow cooling trend that
will turn most of the precipitation to all snow showers by
Wednesday across the region including the eastern Kenai Peninsula
and most of Prince William Sound.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...
An upper trough now extends from the Bering Strait region out over
Southwest Alaska, with a smaller embedded upper low drifting over
the Kuskokwim Delta this morning. Areas of very slow-moving snow
showers have developed near this small upper low where weak lift
and steep lapse rates in the mid levels are promoting these
patches of convectively enhanced showers. Synoptic lift and weak
deformation out ahead of the main trough axis is also helping
bands of very light snow develop over the interior parts of
Southwest closer to the Alaska Range, including near Sleetmute and
Aniak. Across the Bering Sea, relatively quiet conditions are
prevailing under a ridge axis centered over the western
Bering/Aleutians. A low is also now pulling well south of the
Aleutian Chain into the North Pacific, allowing east to northeast
winds near the southern AKPen and eastern Aleutians to steadily
trend down today.
By this evening, a shortwave trough currently moving over
Kamchatka will head east, sending a developing low and attendant
front into the western Bering Sea. The low will deepen overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning as it continues east, becoming a gale
force low by late tonight. Winds will become most notably strong
and gusty out near the western Aleutians, where a secondary
shortwave will drive through right behind the initial wave
passage right as colder air begins to wrap into the western and
southern side of the surface low. Peak westerly gusts will likely
reach the 50 to 60 mph range across the western Aleutian Chain on
Tuesday as the low passes off to the northeast. Light to moderate
rainfall along the low`s leading front will also push across the
Aleutians from west to east as the parent center skirts to the
north from tonight into Tuesday evening. From Tuesday night into
Wednesday, the low will weaken and dive south into the North
Pacific as a weak ridge moves back over the western Bering,
allowing for a return to calmer conditions and lighter north to
northeast flow by midweek.
Looking back towards Southwest, the upper trough in place will
gradually lift to the northeast over the next couple days,
allowing bands of snow moving out ahead of the trough to also
slowly shift northeast and eventually dissipate along portions of
the western Alaska Range by Tuesday evening. The snow showers over
the Kuskokwim Delta should also begin to wind down by tonight as
the cold air aloft and weak forcing near the embedded upper low
shifts east and as northerly cold advection along the coastline
shuts off. Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the 10s to
20s over the next day or two, with wind chills not much lower
while winds remain light through Tuesday night. Breaks in cloud
cover and mostly calm winds will also be conducive to fog
formation, mainly over parts of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Delta overnight tonight. Northeast winds will begin to pick up by
Wednesday as an offshore gradient develops between the Bering
ridge and a strong low moving south of the Gulf. Generally dry and
cool conditions will also prevail through midweek.
-AS
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...
A fairly stagnant weather pattern continues for the long term
forecast period as a blocking upper level ridge over Canada keeps
the mean trough axis over western mainland Alaska. Temperatures
will gradually cool with northerly flow aloft, especially over
Southwest Alaska. Surface lows in the Gulf of Alaska will bring in
rounds of precipitation to Southcentral, but the majority of
accumulation will stay coastal. Gap winds on the backside of the
Gulf lows will increase through the Alaska Peninsula Thursday and
Friday while the rest of Southwest stays relatively quiet.
There are signals of a strong low pressure system sweeping a
front across the Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend.
Enhanced rain and gale to storm force wind gusts are possible as
the front moves over the region, but the exact storm track as it
moves east is uncertain at this time. This is something we will
keep an eye on going forward.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Scattered snow showers this morning then scattered rain
and snow showers this afternoon will be around the airport. While
any of these showers could bring in brief MVFR (or even IFR)
conditions today through Tuesday, for the most part ceilings and
visibility should remain VFR. No significant winds are anticipated
around the terminal through tomorrow.
&&
$$
169
FXAK69 PAFG 030342
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
642 PM AKST Sun Nov 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The overall unsettled pattern continues with the majority of the
region being influenced by troughing. This has allowed for some snow
to be possible, especially for portions of the Interior, as well as
along the West Coast and North Slope. Expect on and off light snow
showers to be possible. Stronger winds along the North Slope will
begin to weaken by tomorrow. There will begin a gradual cooling
trend throughout the week as there is more cold air being advected
in from the north once a ridge begins to establish itself over the
Chukchi Sea. Highs for the North Slope/Arctic Plains will fall into
the singles, and even a few locations not getting above zero by the
following weekend. There is also going to be the potential of a more
impactful area of low pressure to move in towards the end of the
week, which could result in some potentially significant snowfall
amounts within portions of the Interior and for the southeastern
slopes of the Brooks Range. This is still days out and therefore
these potential impacts will continued to be monitored in the
upcoming days.
&&
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light flurries but little accumulating snow in the Interior today.
- South flow through the Alaska Range passes may yield gusts up
to about 35 to 40 mph through the early part of this evening.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will begin to gradually cool off
each day this week with highs mainly in the 20s and lows mainly
in the teens for the beginning of the week, and then highs
generally in the teens by the second half of the week.
- Breaks in cloud cover are expected across the southeastern
Interior and temperatures should drop into the single digits at
night where clear skies occur.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northerly winds over St. Lawrence Island, the Bering Strait,
and the western capes diminish to near or below 30 mph by this
evening. Scattered ocean effect snow showers accompany areas of
gusty north winds.
- Areas of light snow will continue to shift west across most of
the area through tonight. In general, 1-3 inches of additional
snowfall are expected for most locations by Monday morning, less
around the Kotzebue Sound and east of the Yukon. By later in
the week, there could be potentially more significant snowfall
amounts for portions of the Interior and Yukon Flats.
- High temperatures near 30 with lows in the low-to-mid 20s are
expected for St. Lawrence Island. In the Western Interior, highs
cool from near 30 today into the mid teens by Friday, with lows
falling from near 20 into the single digits.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Northeasterly winds gusting to 30-45 mph continue into tonight
while gradually turning easterly. The strongest gusts today will
be near Utqiagvik and will shift toward the eastern Arctic
coast by Tuesday. There will also be some blowing snow due to
this, with restricted visibilities getting down to a quarter of
a mile at times.
- Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible across the
North Slope throughout the evening, mostly across the Arctic
plains and points eastward, with snow elsewhere mostly limited
to light flurries.
- Cloudy skies and above normal temperatures continue through
early this week. A colder air mass drops highs into the teens
and single digits in the Arctic plains and eastern Arctic coast,
with lows in the single digits or lower by Wednesday into late
week. Portions of the Arctic Plains could have highs below zero
by the following weekend.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The overall area of broad troughing currently over a majority of the
state, with embedded waves and areas of weak instability has allowed
for a generally unsettled pattern, and has kept a lot of lower level
clouds and fog socked into some of the Interior, along for some
accumulating light snow. Low pressure to the southeast, and high
pressure over the Chukchi Sea, This ridge axis will shift more to
the east and over the Beaufort Sea, which will allow for an omega
blocking pattern to materialize as there is a deepening trough over
western Canada, which will eventually extend back over into eastern
portions of the mainland. As this does, more colder air will be
ushered in from the north and result in a gradual cooldown
throughout the week, given the colder northerly flow. The EPS and
GEFS ensemble anomalies also confirm this, showing the spread in
comparison to averages (which has been a much large spread in recent
days) beginning to tighten up more in terms of dispersion. Towards
the end of the week, the deterministic models have been hinting at
the potential for there to be a more significant major shortwave
trough moving up into the gulf of Alaska, which may bring some areas
of the Interior a more substantial amount of snowfall, as warm
southerly flow ahead of this system overrides much relatively colder
air at the surface. The EC`s EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) has also
been outlining an area of potentially impactful for portions of the
Interior and Yukon Flats. The evolution of this major shortwave
trough will continue to be the focus for this week.
&&
HYDROLOGY... No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across
the area and is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.
&&
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Wednesday night, a
large low in the Gulf of Alaska is sending fronts of moisture
north into the Alaska Range and around it into the Southeastern
Interior. These fronts are expected to bring widespread snowfall
across the state similar to the snowfall seen late last week.
This snowfall is expected to develop in a colder pattern and thus
fluffier, less dense snowfall is expected. There is currently low
confidence in snowfall amounts, but areas of up to 6 inches is
possible Thursday through Saturday, especially in the White
Mountains and other more elevated areas. Another low moves east
along the Aleutians early next week which will likely bring
additional snow and gusty winds to the West Coast and parts of the
Western Interior.
-Stokes
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812>815-858>860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813>815-859-860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Stewey
Extended- Stokes
757
FXAK67 PAJK 030540
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
840 PM AKST Sun Nov 2 2025
.UPDATE...
06z Aviation discussion updated.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A low enters the gulf Tuesday increasing bringing gales to the
southern gulf and increasing winds across the panhandle.
SHORT TERM...Forecast is mostly on track through this evening, with
the incoming shortwave nicely visible on satellite near Prince of
Wales Island. One change going forward is the addition of
isolated thunderstorms on the western slope of Prince of Wales
Island. With skinny cape present, westerly winds exceeding 30
knots up to 850 mb, and vorticity advection aloft, the thought was
some enhanced convection from orographic lifting on the western
slope of PoW. Not expecting any strong winds greater than 30 knots
due to lack of moisture limiting evaporative rain cooling aloft.
Otherwise, will see a diminishing trend in showers from north to
south this evening, with showers in the central and southern
panhandle slowing down tremendously as the shortwave passes into
Canada. Similar story with the winds, with wind gusts on the
downward trend beginning around 6 PM tonight with the departing
energy moving into Canada.
Tomorrow will see a weak shortwave moving up from the south,
bringing another round of moist weather and increased winds to 30
mph over land for the southern panhandle. Not expecting rain or
wind to continue significantly into the afternoon hours, as the
weak trough is sheared apart by the mountains in the area. PoPs
significantly fall apart into the evening as the next system moves
up from the south.
LONG TERM...
A more moist and active pattern arrives Tuesday as
multiple low pressure systems move north into the gulf of Alaska.
These lows will send a series of fronts and shortwaves over the
panhandle allowing precipitation chances to remain high into the end
of the week. 24 hour precipitation amounts remain on the lower side
for this time of year, but the southern panhandle is looking to
receive the most rain as these fronts move north.
Land and marine winds will have the most impact for the panhandle
Tuesday into Wednesday. On Tuesday night, winds across the southern
gulf of Alaska increase to gale force around 35 kts as the low
begins to move north. As the low begins to move into the gulf, and
high pressure around 1015 to 1020 mb builds over BC, the east to
west facing channels will see a more significant increase in winds.
This will also create easterly winds across the Coastal Mountain
Range. Those easterly winds will help to increase wind strengths
near Juneau, Taku Inlet, and Stephens Passage. Although these winds
will not be the strongest mountain wave, Juneau has a 40% chance of
seeing gusts up to 40 mph late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Other
inside waters are likely to experience fresh to strong breezes of
northerly 15 to 25 kts as the low moves north.
While the parent low in the gulf is expected to be fully stacked and
well occluded, multiple shortwave troughs aloft continuously move
energy northward for the rest of the week. Which allows for
uncertainty to remain in the forecast, into the end of the week.
However, the week will remain active with the southern panhandle the
most likely to see the most rain and wind into next weekend.
AVIATION...
As of 06z VFR remains the dominant category across the Panhandle,
with MVFR for the northern coast, diminishing to IFR at times. For
the northern coast, anticipate CIGS near FL015, dropping to FL008
at times along with VSBY at 2SM from +SHRA. Showers also continue
to plague the Panhandle, diminishing CIGS/VSBY down to MVFR with
CIGS near FL020. Expecting these showers to persist through early
Monday afternoon dropping conditions to MVFR at times, mainly
impacting the central and southern Panhandle (south of Icy
Strait). Winds also diminish over the next 12 hours. Tuesday a
system will lift north from Haida Gwaii bringing cool
northeasterly outflow winds to the Inner Channels and elevated
easterly winds across the Coast Range into Wednesday.
MARINE...
Outside Waters: Light to moderate pockets of showers continue to
develop through the gulf with fresh southwesterly flow diminishing
through Sunday night. Winds will begin turning southerly
overnight, becoming southeasterly Monday morning and eventually
turning easterly by Monday night. As this flow starts to turn, an
area of shortwave troughing will attempt to spin up along the
southeastern coast of the panhandle which will keep winds going
into Clarence Strait and off the coast of PoW Island between 11 to
16 kts overnight. Another low pressure system jumps into the
southern gulf Monday, sending a shortwave of elevated winds into
the southern gulf overnight. East to southeasterly strong breezes
to near gales (22 to 33 kts) will spread north through the gulf
Tuesday and stay elevated as the fully developed gale force front
moves in Tuesday evening. Wave heights in the gulf will rapidly
fall from 12 to 14 ft to around 5 to 7 ft by Monday before the
next system southeasterly 15 to 20 ft waves in the southern gulf,
continuing to increase through Tuesday. 8 to 10 ft southwesterly
swell with a wave period around 11 seconds will follow suit, with
the system bringing in 15 to 20 ft southeasterly swell with a
period around 14 seconds.
Inner Channels: Elevated fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts)
in the inner channels are beginning to weaken through Sunday
afternoon as the pressure gradient turns more easterly. Northern
Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage are still seeing areas of near
gale force winds (28 to 33 kts) with gale force gusts (34 to 40
kts) going into Sunday evening. By Monday morning, channel winds
will have largely diminished to below 10 kts with the exception of
a small shortwave attempting to bring moderate breezes (11 to 16
kts) up Clarence Strait. Winds will start picking up again
overnight Monday into Tuesday as the next system moves into the
southern gulf. Outflow winds will pick up Tuesday and continue
into Wednesday, with multiple channels seeing near gale force
winds.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...ZTK
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