103
FXAK68 PAFC 031355
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...
The broad negatively-tilted upper level trough that has been the
subject of recent discussions can be seen very well on satellite
imagery early this morning as the cloud band that stretches from
Kodiak to eastern Norton Sound. Ahead of this feature, there are
numerous shortwaves embedded in the south-to-southeast flow which
are bringing in scattered snow or rain showers to the region. One
of the stronger waves moved across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and
then across Anchorage overnight. Behind this wave there is
generally just disorganized snow showers across the Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage and into the Mat-Su. This supports more of a
scattered snow showers regime instead of there being enough to
call the showers numerous in coverage. What is interesting is that
with this upper level trough is that it is not moving a whole lot
for the next few days. This will keep the area from the Kenai
Peninsula to Prince William Sound and areas north in an overall
pattern that supports persistent, but disorganized, rain and snow
showers. However, most of the models show periods of more
organized shower activity in conjunction with any number or weak
shortwaves moving through. the issue is that there is little to
no model agreement on when and where any of these waves will
develop and move. This is not unusual with weak upper level waves
in such a pattern. However, it does keep the door open for a more
organized wave to develop and drop a few inches of surprise snow
over an area. This will generally be the case for the next few
days. Perhaps the biggest change will be a slow cooling trend that
will turn most of the precipitation to all snow showers by
Wednesday across the region including the eastern Kenai Peninsula
and most of Prince William Sound.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...
An upper trough now extends from the Bering Strait region out over
Southwest Alaska, with a smaller embedded upper low drifting over
the Kuskokwim Delta this morning. Areas of very slow-moving snow
showers have developed near this small upper low where weak lift
and steep lapse rates in the mid levels are promoting these
patches of convectively enhanced showers. Synoptic lift and weak
deformation out ahead of the main trough axis is also helping
bands of very light snow develop over the interior parts of
Southwest closer to the Alaska Range, including near Sleetmute and
Aniak. Across the Bering Sea, relatively quiet conditions are
prevailing under a ridge axis centered over the western
Bering/Aleutians. A low is also now pulling well south of the
Aleutian Chain into the North Pacific, allowing east to northeast
winds near the southern AKPen and eastern Aleutians to steadily
trend down today.
By this evening, a shortwave trough currently moving over
Kamchatka will head east, sending a developing low and attendant
front into the western Bering Sea. The low will deepen overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning as it continues east, becoming a gale
force low by late tonight. Winds will become most notably strong
and gusty out near the western Aleutians, where a secondary
shortwave will drive through right behind the initial wave
passage right as colder air begins to wrap into the western and
southern side of the surface low. Peak westerly gusts will likely
reach the 50 to 60 mph range across the western Aleutian Chain on
Tuesday as the low passes off to the northeast. Light to moderate
rainfall along the low`s leading front will also push across the
Aleutians from west to east as the parent center skirts to the
north from tonight into Tuesday evening. From Tuesday night into
Wednesday, the low will weaken and dive south into the North
Pacific as a weak ridge moves back over the western Bering,
allowing for a return to calmer conditions and lighter north to
northeast flow by midweek.
Looking back towards Southwest, the upper trough in place will
gradually lift to the northeast over the next couple days,
allowing bands of snow moving out ahead of the trough to also
slowly shift northeast and eventually dissipate along portions of
the western Alaska Range by Tuesday evening. The snow showers over
the Kuskokwim Delta should also begin to wind down by tonight as
the cold air aloft and weak forcing near the embedded upper low
shifts east and as northerly cold advection along the coastline
shuts off. Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the 10s to
20s over the next day or two, with wind chills not much lower
while winds remain light through Tuesday night. Breaks in cloud
cover and mostly calm winds will also be conducive to fog
formation, mainly over parts of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Delta overnight tonight. Northeast winds will begin to pick up by
Wednesday as an offshore gradient develops between the Bering
ridge and a strong low moving south of the Gulf. Generally dry and
cool conditions will also prevail through midweek.
-AS
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...
A fairly stagnant weather pattern continues for the long term
forecast period as a blocking upper level ridge over Canada keeps
the mean trough axis over western mainland Alaska. Temperatures
will gradually cool with northerly flow aloft, especially over
Southwest Alaska. Surface lows in the Gulf of Alaska will bring in
rounds of precipitation to Southcentral, but the majority of
accumulation will stay coastal. Gap winds on the backside of the
Gulf lows will increase through the Alaska Peninsula Thursday and
Friday while the rest of Southwest stays relatively quiet.
There are signals of a strong low pressure system sweeping a
front across the Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend.
Enhanced rain and gale to storm force wind gusts are possible as
the front moves over the region, but the exact storm track as it
moves east is uncertain at this time. This is something we will
keep an eye on going forward.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Scattered snow showers this morning then scattered rain
and snow showers this afternoon will be around the airport. While
any of these showers could bring in brief MVFR (or even IFR)
conditions today through Tuesday, for the most part ceilings and
visibility should remain VFR. No significant winds are anticipated
around the terminal through tomorrow.
&&
$$
916
FXAK69 PAFG 031533
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
633 AM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather is expected to continue today across Western
Alaska, with general low pressure in the area. The Western
Interior could see up to a few inches of new snow the next couple
of days with a north-moving band beginning to track across the
area this morning. Some of this will eventually traverse the
western North Slope, with the best chance for an inch or more of
snow at Point Hope and Utqiagvik. East winds gusting up to 50 mph
across the Arctic coast east of Utqiagvik will continue today
while shifting farther east. A general cooling trend will continue
across Northern Alaska through mid-to-late week. Beginning
Wednesday night and running through the weekend, a fairly broad
area of potential snowfall will be possible across the Interior.
While there is still significant forecast uncertainty, many areas
could receive at least an inch of accumulation, with some areas
potentially seeing more.
&&
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Better snow chances return Wednesday night into the weekend.
While there is uncertainty, most areas have a chance for at
least an inch. With high snow-to-liquid ratios possible, some
areas could see up to six inches over a multi-day period.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will gradually cool off each day
this week with highs mainly in the 20s and lows mainly in the
teens for the beginning of the week, then highs generally in the
teens by the second half of the week. Expected breaks in clouds
in southeastern areas could yield lows in the single digits.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered ocean effect snow showers will move into the YK Delta
and Norton Sound areas from the west to northwest this morning,
then from the northeast from tomorrow afternoon onward.
- With the exception of parts of the Lower Yukon Valley, an
additional 1-2 inches of snow is possible through Tuesday
morning for most of the Western Interior and the Bering Sea
coastline. A few inches of snow will be possible across most of
Western Alaska from Wednesday through Friday.
- Highs near 30 with lows in the low-to-mid 20s are expected for
St. Lawrence Island. In the Western Interior, highs cool from
the upper 20s today into the mid teens by Friday, with lows
falling from near 20 into the single digits. The West Coast will
see highs in mid/upper 20s and lows in the low 20s/high teens.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Easterly winds continue across the Arctic coast, with the
highest gusts today being east of Utqiagvik up to 45 mph. These
winds will shift toward the eastern Arctic coast by Tuesday.
There will also be some blowing snow, with restricted
visibilities getting down to a quarter of a mile at times.
- Isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries with little
accumulation will be possible today, mostly near Utqiagvik and
Point Hope. 1-2 inches of snow, perhaps more with high snow
ratios, will be possible in the western two-thirds of the North
Slope from Wednesday through Saturday.
- Cloudy skies and above normal temperatures continue through
early this week. A colder air mass drops highs into the teens
and single digits in the Arctic plains and eastern Arctic coast,
with lows in the single digits or lower by Wednesday into late
week. Portions of the Arctic Plains could have highs below zero
by the weekend.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
General troughing is in place across Western Alaska, with a ~516
dm upper low in place over the YK Delta and a ~534 ridge over the
Arctic. With a several millibar gradient in place across the
eastern half or so of the Arctic coast, gusts of upwards of 45
mph are occurring at some sites. Model prognosis shifts a 1024 mb
high over the Arctic to the southeast as it gradually
strengthens. This will shift the gradient and thus the highest
winds to the east but should still support continuing gusty winds
near and just offshore of Barter Island from Tuesday night through
Thursday night. A shortwave trough northeast of the main upper
low will support some light showers to the northern/western Arctic
coast through this evening as it shifts to the north. Areas of
snow showers will move from the northwest off the Bering Sea /
Norton Sound onto adjacent coastal areas through tomorrow morning
but will move to the southwest thereafter as an otherwise
unimpactful (for Northern Alaska) low over the southern Bering
passes by.
Additional snow/snow showers over the Western Interior
will bring up to a few inches of snow to the area through
midweek. Beginning Wednesday evening, a shortwave on the east side
of the upper low (by then over southwestern Alaska) will move
north across the eastern Interior/North Slope and could yield
anywhere from 1 to 6 inches for many areas. Model prognosis
provides limited certainty. The 00Z ECMWF solution has the
shortwave moving in a more southeast-to-northwest orientation,
which brings more moisture around the Alaska Range into the area
and drops more snowfall. The 06Z GFS solution conversely is drier
in the Eastern Interior and moister in the Western Interior, with
the shortwave beginning farther west and tracking more directly to
the north. The 00Z Canadian resembles the GFS solution, and the
06Z ECMWF is similar to the 00Z ECMWF but with a stronger
shortwave, a slightly more due north rather than northwest track,
and slightly lower snowfall.
&&
HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across the area
and is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.
&&
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Wednesday night, a
large low in the Gulf of Alaska is sending fronts of moisture
north into the Alaska Range and around it into the Southeastern
Interior. These fronts are expected to bring widespread snowfall
across the state similar to the snowfall seen late last week.
This snowfall is expected to develop in a colder pattern and thus
fluffier, less dense snowfall is expected. There is currently low
confidence in snowfall amounts, but areas of up to 6 inches is
possible Thursday through Saturday, especially in the White
Mountains and other more elevated areas. Another low moves east
along the Aleutians early next week which will likely bring
additional snow and gusty winds to the West Coast and parts of the
Western Interior.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813>815-859-860.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813>815-858>860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
DS: Synopsis, Key Messages, and Forecast Analysis/Discussion
Stokes: Extended
119
FXAK67 PAJK 031528
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
628 AM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Weak shortwave brings light showers across southern and central
panhandle this morning into the evening, shearing apart by
tonight.
- Offshore flow for northern panhandle for this evening, with low
precipitation chances and some sky clearing.
- A low enters the gulf Tuesday increasing bringing gales to the
southern gulf and increasing winds across the panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A weak shortwave continues to move up into the southern panhandle
early this morning, bringing some light showers across the
southern panhandle before getting sheared apart by the time the
trough moves more northward. These showers will move as far north
as the central panhandle by this evening, before PoPs rapidly
diminish to only some slight chances by tonight reaching as far
north as Juneau. The northern panhandle will begin to see some
northerly offshore flow by this afternoon as the next low
approaches from the southwest, allowing for some breaks in cloud
cover from Icy Strait corridor northward during the day. The
highest precipitation chances for tonight will be along the NE
Gulf coast as flow moves along the shore, and into the southern
panhandle later tonight as the next system approaches.
Precipitation from this upcoming front will begin to push across
the southern panhandle by early Tuesday morning, moving northward
into the late morning.
Winds will remain calmer today across the majority of the
panhandle, with the exception being the southern panhandle, where
the shortwave moving through this morning will bring up winds both
over the waters and inland. Winds should diminish after the wave
passes through, with lighter winds lasting into tonight for most
inland parts of the panhandle.
.LONG TERM...
A more moist and active pattern arrives Tuesday as multiple low
pressure systems move north into the gulf of Alaska. These lows
will send a series of fronts and shortwaves over the panhandle
allowing precipitation chances to remain high into the end of the
week. 24 hour precipitation amounts remain on the lower side for
this time of year, but the southern panhandle is looking to
receive the most rain as these fronts move north.
Land and marine winds will have the most impact for the panhandle
Tuesday into Wednesday. On Tuesday night, winds across the
southern gulf of Alaska increase to gale force around 35 kts as
the low begins to move north. As the low begins to move into the
gulf, and high pressure around 1015 to 1020 mb builds over BC, the
east to west facing channels will see a more significant increase
in winds. This will also create easterly winds across the Coastal
Mountain Range. Those easterly winds will help to increase wind
strengths near Juneau, Taku Inlet, and Stephens Passage. Although
these winds will not the strongest mountain wave, Juneau has a 40%
chance of seeing gusts up to 40 mph late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. Other inside waters are likely to experience fresh to
strong breezes of northerly 15 to 25 kts as the low moves north.
While the parent low in the gulf is expected to be fully stacked
and well occluded, multiple shortwave troughs aloft continuously
move energy northward for the rest of the week. Which allows for
uncertainty to remain in the forecast, into the end of the week.
However, the week will remain active with the southern panhandle
the most likely to see the most rain and wind into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION.../through Tuesday Morning/
General VFR conditions across the panhandle this morning, even
with a nuisance shortwave pushing into the S Panhandle. CIGS
hovering AoA 3500ft, with some brief intermittent dips down to
MVFR flight conditions near 1500ft. Aforementioned shortwave will
keep isolated showers across the panhandle TAF sites through
Monday afternoon, primarily along and south of a line from Sitka
over to Petersburg, dropping visbys down to 2 to 4SM with the
heavier showers. CIGS south of this line will generally by AoB
5000ft through the morning, with potential to SCT out for a few
hours from 18z to 00z. On the opposite trend, anticipating drier
outflow conditions along and north of the Icy Strait corridor,
including Juneau, with higher forecast confidence of VFR flight
conditions with CIGS AoA 5000ft by 18z to 20z through Monday
evening. Light intermittent rainfall returns to the N TAF sites
near tail end of TAF period as a weak front sweeps from SE to NW
across the panhandle.
Winds should largely remain 10kts or less, diminishing through
the late afternoon into Monday night. However, can`t rule out an
isolated gust up to 20kts at Skagway through the morning. No major
LLWS concerns through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Winds predominantly less than 15 kt across the
Gulf throughout the day and lasting into early tonight, with only
some increases to between 15-20 kt as a surface trough moves
northward along the SE Gulf coast this morning. The NE Gulf coast
within 15 NM will see an increase to 15 kt near Cape Fairweather
and Cape St. Elias as a weak coastal jet late this morning, and
increasing to 20 kt by tonight as the low approaches. The
southeastern Gulf will switch to an Easterly direction by tonight
as the low approaches, winds nearshore and offshore increasing to
15-25 kt late tonight into early Tuesday morning as the low moves
northward toward the panhandle. 7 to 10 ft seas this morning
diminishing to 5 to 7 ft tonight, before SE Gulf seas become 7 to
10 ft into Tuesday morning as the low moves in. Westerly swell of
4 to 7 ft diminishing into tonight and becoming southerly into
Tuesday morning.
Inner Channels: Winds largely remaining below 10 kt across the
inner channels today. Northern Lynn Canal will still see southerly
15 to 20 kt winds through this morning, before diminishing and
switching to a northerly direction by the afternoon. Clarence
Strait and Southern Chatham Strait near Cape Decision will
continue to see southeasterly 15-20 kt winds following the
shortwave moving through this morning, before diminishing to 10-15
kt by this afternoon. Winds across the inner channels will switch
from a more southeasterly direction this morning to an easterly
to northeasterly direction by early Tuesday morning as the low
approaches the panhandle from the southwest. Winds in Cross sound
and southern Clarence Strait will begin to see increases to 20 kt
from an easterly direction early in the morning.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino
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