559
FXAK68 PAFC 170033
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Tue Jun 16 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Ridging continues to build over the Southern Mainland, while a
weak low traverses the southern Gulf towards Southeast AK over
the next couple of days. Benign conditions will continue overall.
Light rain showers will pop up this afternoon, primarily along
terrain in the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley.
Additionally, there will be periodic isolated diurnally driven
thunderstorms over the next few afternoons as we progress into a
warming trend. For coastal locations, expect diurnally driven sea
breezes each afternoon to continue.
KM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...
Fog/low stratus remains over the Bering as ridging continues. The
low stratus/fog over communities in the Aleutians will follow the
same pattern as before, thinning out during the day and filling
back in during the evening/night. Meanwhile, the Southwest
Mainland is seeing the upper low south of the Alaska Peninsula
continue to move eastward. Due to this, lesser cloud cover and
greater high temperatures are following. This daytime heating will
allow for convection over inland areas of Southwest Alaska.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible (10 to 20%) over the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley through the weekend, with thunderstorm coverage
increasing each day towards the end of the week. An upper low will
drop from the north by Thursday, allowing for cooler temperatures
and non-convective rainfall over the Kuskokwim Delta.
Back to the Bering, by late Wednesday into Thursday, a low will
move southwest of Attu Island. This low will push a front into the
Attu/Shemya region, bringing gusty, easterly winds and light
rainfall. However, the front will stall against the ridge and will
slowly weaken through Friday. The ridge will eventually be
squeezed by the low out west and the low dropping into the
Southwest Mainland. This means that fog/low stratus coverage will
shrink to the middle of the Bering between the Adak/Atka and
Pribilof Islands area by Friday.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...
Expect unsettled weather late this week into early next week,
though no major impacts are anticipated at this time. The primary
concerns during this period will be (a) thunderstorm potential
across the interior and (b) relatively warm conditions in
Southcentral from late this week into early next week.
Saturday begins with a low in the far western Aleutians, a low
moving into Southwest Alaska from the north, and a low approaching
Kodiak/Alaska Peninsula from the North Pacific. A north-south
oriented ridge extends across the Bering Sea, and another ridge
will extend over eastern Alaska and into Canada. Putting the
pieces together: while ridging will have dominated much of the
Southern Mainland and the Bering Sea late this week, the
encroaching lows from the Arctic and the North Pacific will bring
a transition towards cooler, moister, and more unsettled weather
this weekend. The degree to which this happens will depend on how
the two lows phase and interact with each other, and how strong
the ridge over the interior remains.
Since yesterday, this interior ridge seems to have trended
stronger in model guidance, suggesting that the North Pacific low
and its moisture may be shunted off into Southwest Alaska or
remain in the Gulf altogether, leading to fairly dry conditions in
the Southcentral interior. If this were to happen, this may
extend the potential for thunderstorms into early next week, and
keep temperatures warmer for Southcentral. For Southwest Alaska,
precipitation amounts will depend on how the two lows phase and
evolve. If the North Pacific low is absorbed into the Southwest
low, this will mean greater moisture advection and more rain in
Southwest Alaska. If the two lows remain separate, moisture is
more likely to remain in the Gulf and lead to drier conditions in
Southwest. Either way, it looks likely that Kodiak Island, the
Alaska Peninsula, Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William
Sound will see rain this weekend from the North Pacific low.
For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the trend is for the
Western Aleutians low and its front to gradually nudge the Bering
ridge eastwards, leading to more rain and wind moving into the
Bering Sea. The displacement of the ridge will also shift where
fog and low clouds are likeliest into the Central and Eastern
Bering/Aleutians by early next week.
-KC
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
&&
$$
485
FXAK69 PAFG 162220
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Tue Jun 16 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
The heavy rain in the Brooks Range and North Slope has prompted
a Flood Warning in Wiseman/Coldfoot as well as a Flood Advisory
along the Colville and Sag River. The rain will stop this
afternoon/evening and there will likely be rises in
Allakaket/Bettles along the Koyukuk in the next 1 to 2 days. The
Sag and Colville will likely rise as well, since the water will be
draining into the headwaters and flowing downriver over the next
couple of days. Otherwise, the rest of Northern Alaska is pretty
quiet and cool with isolated rain showers and a chance for a
couple of thunderstorms in the Upper Tanana. Tomorrow will begin a
warming trend for most spots and it is expected to continue into
the weekend with increasing chances for thunderstorms each day.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures a few degrees below normal today with a warming
trend into the low-mid 70s beginning on Wednesday and upper 70s
to near 80 by Friday.
- Isolated afternoon showers across the Interior today with a
couple of thunderstorms possible in the Upper Tanana Valley.
- Thunderstorms increase in coverage Wednesday, but more
noticeably on Thursday and Friday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Generally light winds and calm weather for most of the area. A
few showers possible in the Western Interior.
- A warming trend begins on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to
near 70 in the Interior and 50s along the coast. Gradual warming
by about 1 to 2 degrees a day continues through the week.
- Thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday and will be isolated
over most of the Interior and northern Seward Peninsula.
Isolated thunderstorms persist on Thursday in the Interior then
track east on Friday.
- A low moves to the West coast Wednesday night and will provide
an enhanced area of showers through Thursday, especially south
of the Seward Peninsula.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Other than some showers, the heaviest rain has ended. A Flood
Advisory is in effect for the Colville River through Friday
morning with Flood Watches elsewhere through at least Wednesday
morning.
- Warming trend with temps ranging from the upper 40s/low 50s
along the coast to the low to mid 70s in the Brooks Range
valleys by Thursday.
- The warmer temps will also support chances for thunderstorms in
the Brooks Range and North Slope from Wednesday through
Saturday.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
There isn`t much change from the last few days as we have a ridge
building over western Canada, a trough north/northwest of
Utqiagvik, a ridge over the North Pacific and a low near the
Eastern Aleutians. Over the next few days, ridging will take over
most of Northern Alaska allowing the temperatures to warm but also
introduce higher chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the week. It will be a messy ridge as we`ll have many shortwaves
moving around it, acting as the main driving force for our
thunderstorms in the Central/Eastern Interior and Brooks Range.
For thunderstorms, this is one of the "best" patterns of the year
so far with east/southeast flow, warm temperatures and plenty of
lift from shortwaves. Overall, this looks like typical warm
summer weather with chances for storms but given the timing,
around the Midnight Sun activities, this could be particularly
impactful. For those that will be outside, you will want to be
weather aware this weekend as many of these thunderstorms will
come with briefly heavy rain, gusty winds, hail and frequent
lightning. Typically thunderstorms end during the evening as well,
but with persistent energy moving into the area, thunderstorms
may linger all night, especially over the Central and Eastern
Interior. Otherwise, expect near to above normal temperatures for
the North Slope and Central/Eastern Interior through the end of
the week and into the weekend.
Out west, we`ll have an upper level low moving
towards the West Coast Wednesday night. This will provide stratus
and some fog to the coast while bringing an enhanced area of
showers south of the Seward Peninsula through the day on Thursday.
It will also assist in providing thunderstorms to the Western
Interior on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near to
above normal in the Western Interior but around average along the
coast for much of the period. Otherwise, there are no major
systems expected for the foreseeable future.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively quiet for now on the fire weather front as we keep
cool temperatures with mostly 30%+ RHs this afternoon. Tomorrow
will begin a warming trend across Northern Alaska, high
temperatures get into the 70s in the valleys across the Interior
but RHs remain around 30% or higher. Heading through the rest of
the week, most of the Central/Eastern Interior warms into the
upper 70s or low 80s by Friday. Lowest min RHs look to be around
25% in the Tanana Valley and Yukon Flats, but most spots remain
above 30% by Friday. The Western Interior valleys remain in the
low 70s through the end of the week with RHs around 30 to 40%.
Thunderstorms will be isolated across the Interior today, we`ve
already had a couple of strikes south of Manley Hot Springs, but
thunderstorms will be hit or miss. Tomorrow, coverage will expand
to the Fortymile, AK Range, SW Interior, Brooks Range and northern
Seward Peninsula. On Thursday, most thunderstorms will be from
the Western Interior to the Western North Slope. Friday comes
with chances for scattered storms across the Central/Eastern
Interior.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Most of the rain is ending on the North Slope and Brooks Range
but there are plenty of flood products issued including an
Advisory along the Colville and Sag and a Warning in
Wiseman/Coldfoot. Watches are issued for most of the North Slope,
Brooks Range and the Koyukuk River to Allakaket.
See Weather.gov/afg for the most updated flooding products and
water.noaa.gov for the most updated river gauge forecasts.
Otherwise, we anticipate high water and river rises as the
snowmelt continues and rain ends. Impacts may persist through the
end of the week, especially on the North Slope as it takes a while
for all of the water to pass through the system. The latest
forecast for the Sag River along the Dalton Highway is, between
mileposts 310-340, road washouts are possible especially in areas
adjacent to the Sag River and in the vicinity of stream crossings
if lingering ice results in culvert blockages. On the Colville
from Umiat to Nuiqsut, minor flooding in low-lying areas due to
rapid temperature rises and continuing rain on residual snowpack
is possible. The flood crest should attenuate as it progresses
downstream, but water levels are already high in Umiat and minor
flooding should be expected elsewhere.
High water near Coldfoot and Wiseman will continue to recede
today but it is flowing towards Bettles and Allakaket currently.
The river gauge in Bettles is beginning to rise and will continue
to do so through about midnight Wednesday night with a current
forecasted crest around 22.70 feet. Allakaket will see their
highest water about 24 hours later. Minor flooding will be
possible as the water continues to rise.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A high pressure system will continue over Northern Alaska, and
drive most of our upcoming weather. A series of shortwaves will
provide instability to our area. We are expecting a general trend
of increasing temperatures, decreasing relative humidity, and a
moderate supply of CAPE present as we move into our weekend.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible as we approach
saturday, and with the trend of lower relative humidity values,
fire weather remains a concern for the Central and Eastern
interior. Wind gusts are expected to be light and variable with
precipitation scatted throughout our area.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ812-831.
Flood Watch for AKZ804>810.
PK...None.
&&
$$
Bianco
Donner - Extended Forecast
018
FXAK67 PAJK 170559
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
959 PM AKDT Tue Jun 16 2026
.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation section to include the 06z set of
TAFs.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 350 PM AKDT Tue Jun 16 2026...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Slightly stronger winds are occurring across N Lynn Canal this
afternoon into this evening.
- Isolated showers continue across SE AK through mid week.
- Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are anticipated for
this weekend as an area of high pressure remains over the gulf.
SHORT TERM...A ridge in the gulf is bringing breezy westerly winds
into the panhandle, turning northwesterly in the southern
panhandle and turning southerly through Lynn Canal. This onshore
flow is also continuing isolated to scattered shower potential for
the panhandle, which will last through Wednesday before shifting
more over the northern panhandle for Thursday. A mid- level low
moving into the panhandle through Wednesday afternoon may bring a
period of more organized showers and overcast skies through the
panhandle, though the far southern panhandle may be able to avoid
this and clear out through the day. Widespread clearing will
attempt to take hold Thursday, though the periods of showers will
make it hard for the northern panhandle to completely follow. Only
light, wetting rainfall is expected with these showers, and they
may be weak enough to not make it all the way through the
panhandle to the interior.
With the potential for clearing skies, daytime high temperatures
will be able to increase to mid to high 60s going into the
weekend. The northern panhandle will most likely see high 50s to
low 60s through this period with the continued shower potential
and cloud cover. Diurnal sea breezes will be able to develop
through the day for locations that see significant clearing and
warming, and fog potential will increase for locations that stay
clear overnight and reach cooler nighttime low temperatures. The
main location expected to see some fog development is around
Petersburg and in Frederick Sound, but with the building ridge off
the coast, a dense marine layer pushing into outer coastal
communities is not out of the question.
LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/... As the ridge builds
Friday, a marine layer will set up just offshore of Baranof down
the coastline to western parts of Prince of Wales. Skies begin
clearing further inland over the southern panhandle sooner than
the rest of the panhandle from the offshore northwesterly flow.
With the ridge in place bringing a trend of clearing skies into
late week, some periods of fog cannot be ruled out.
High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the low-to-
mid 70s. Temperatures aloft don`t look too warm (<15 C at 850 mb),
so the highest temperatures are expected outside of our area.
Some areas may see sea breezes set up Friday and this weekend as
clouds decrease and temperatures increase. Most areas will see
fairly light winds this weekend, but some stronger northwesterly
winds (20-25 kts) in the eastern Gulf are expected as the high
pressure will lead to a stronger pressure gradient, particularly
along the coast of PoW to near Haida Gwaii. As of now, conditions
look to be near small craft advisory criteria. Monday, a weak low
pressure system looks to form in the Gulf. This will decrease
temperatures and increase rain chances into next Tuesday and
beyond.
AVIATION...Isolated showers and lowered ceilings continue across
the panhandle this evening as an area of high pressure moves into with
on-shore flow across the panhandle. Flight conditions remain
predominately MVFR to low-end VFR with CIGs AoB 5000ft with persistent
SW- ly on-shore winds. Conditions are expected to remain low this
evening with low end MVFR conditions for the overnight hours.
Broken to overcast skies will continue into Wednesday, but flight
conditions should start to improve improve after 18z Wednesday,
similar to today, with higher confidence of VFR flight conditions
returning into Wednesday afternoon for the S Panhandle terminals.
MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Weak ridging over the gulf has
been shifting over the coast through the day, allowing for
westerly flow to continue. Seeing westerly fresh breezes in the
southern gulf, bringing pockets of strong breezes near Cape
Decision and through Dixon Entrance. These winds will continue to
shift southeast overnight, persisting through Wednesday in Dixon
Entrance before northwesterly winds increase along the coast again
through Thursday as the ridging builds. 5 to 6 ft wave heights
will decrease as the winds shift Wednesday, but increase again
along the coast with the building ridge. Southwesterly 3 ft swell
at a period of 8 to 10 ft swell continues.
Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to fresh breezes are continuing
through the inner channels through Tuesday afternoon, with the
Icy Strait Corridor seeing westerly winds, Clarence Strait seeing
northwesterly winds, and Lynn Canal seeing southerly winds. Areas
of Northern Lynn Canal, specifically Taiya Inlet, have seen winds
increase to strong breezes throughout the day. A majority of the
panhandle will see winds diminish overnight, though Northern Lynn
Canal may stay somewhat elevated at a moderate breeze overnight.
Winds will persist like this through Wednesday before the area of
ridging in the gulf begins to build more, turning winds to a
northwesterly direction for the end of the week. Sea breezes will
begin to pick up for areas along the water seeing clearing skies,
but are not expected to be very strong with periods of showers
still possible. 1 to 2 ft wave heights are expected, decreasing in
areas of light winds.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...Musall
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...ZTK
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