159
FXAK68 PAFC 051356
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
556 AM AKDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Overall the weather across the region today will be similar to
that observed yesterday. A shortwave is currently moving through
Southcentral this morning, which will bring another round of rain
to the downsloped areas while enhancing areas that were receiving
upsloping precipitation with the south to southwest flow aloft.
This evening will be a bit of a pattern change aloft as the
southernmost shortwave from the broad trough over the Bering lifts
into Southcentral, filtering in some colder air aloft. While the
thermodynamic profile is changing a bit, the main change to the
sensible weather for Monday will just be cooler temperatures along
with the rain. As the trough progresses east, a surface low will
develop south of the Kenai Peninsula, which will weaken winds for
inland areas by Monday afternoon. Kodiak and Whittier will then
have some gusty westerly winds lasting through Tuesday afternoon.
Ridging will be the predominant weather for Tuesday and Wednesday,
with clearer skies and above normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...
The large elongated trough across the Bering Sea remains this
morning as numerous shortwaves continue to lift northward from the
North Pacific, across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and into
Southwest Alaska. Rain will continue through Monday morning across
the AKPEN and Southwest Alaska while eventually tapering off from
west to east as the upper-level energy moves into the Gulf
through Monday. Colder air, via western flow, will also filter in
from the Bering Sea across the Eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and
Southwest Alaska as the low near the northern Kamchatka Peninsula
continues to weaken in place. In tandem with the movement of the
colder air, showers along the Central Aleutians this morning will
work eastward to the Eastern Aleutians by Sunday morning, and
eventually to the AKPEN by Sunday afternoon and evening.
Attention then quickly turns back to the western Bering and
Western Aleutians for Sunday as the next big weather-maker takes
shape. A ridge moves eastward across the Bering as a trough across
the Sea of Okhotsk and Kamchatka digs into the North Pacific.
This will help draw ample amounts of warm air and moisture
northward from the tropical Pacific into the Bering. Initially,
light rain will develop across the Western Aleutians Sunday
morning as the warm front of the Kamchatka/Sea of Okhotsk low
moves overhead. The warm front continues eastward to the Pribilof
Islands and Eastern Aleutians by Monday morning. At the same time,
the synoptic pattern amplifies as the Kamchatka trough digs and
elongates farther into the North Pacific and the surface low
deepens while it interacts with cold air across Siberia. Rain
becomes moderate to heavy at times across the Western Aleutians
beginning Monday afternoon as a strong shortwave rounds the base
of the digging Kamchatka trough. This strong shortwave will induce
cyclogenesis in the North Pacific on Monday which will drive the
rain enhancement.
The newly developed North Pacific low moves north into the
western Bering Monday evening as it continues to deepen. Moderate
to heavy rain spreads east to the Central Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands Tuesday as the western Bering low continues northward and
interacts with the low near the Kamchatka coast. Rain moves into
mainland Southwest Alaska also beginning on Tuesday with most of
the area seeing light to moderate rain at times. The Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast could see moderate to heavy rain
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the main moisture axis
overhead. The moisture axis then looks to push further eastward
for Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain reaching the Eastern
Aleutians, the southern AKPEN, Bristol Bay, and the Kuskokwim
Valley with warm air continuing to advect across the area. Colder
air also works from west to east behind the cold front of the
northward advancing Bering low starting across the Western
Aleutians Monday evening and advancing to the Eastern Aleutians to
around Nikolski by Wednesday morning with instability driven
showers continuing across the Western Aleutians by then.
In addition to the plethora of warm air and moisture with this
setup, strong winds will be another chapter to this Bering storm
story, as will the possibility of coastal flooding across the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast (more on that below). A corridor of
southerly to southwesterly sustained gale-force to storm-force
winds across the Western Aleutians Monday will move northeastward
to the Central Aleutians Monday night and to coastal waters of the
of the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN for Tuesday.
The push of strong southerly winds also makes it to the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast by Tuesday and continues into Wednesday morning. With
the sustained fetch of strong southerly winds into the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast, water levels look to rise for areas along the coast
with two peaks occurring during high tide cycles Tuesday morning
and Tuesday night. To address this concern, a Coastal Flood Watch
has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island
from Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. Stay tuned
to forecast updates as details are ironed out further with this
next incoming storm system.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...
High pressure will dominate south central Alaska through the end
of the work week. By next weekend, a weakening front stretching
across the western half of the state, will help develop low
pressure that will bring rains back into the region. While still a
week out, precipitation type will be something to watch.
Termination Dust should continue it`s descent down the mountains.
At this time, most of lower elevation should remain rain.
Temperatures are definitely cooling, so this aspect will need a
keen eye to remain on it.
Out west... low pressure in the western Bering will sling a front
across the Aleutians through Friday. This weather system will have
a deep tap of moisture (roughly 40N) and should bring abundant
precipitation to the Aleutians and west coast into the weekend.
The deep southerly flow will rebound temperatures. Upper level
high pressure over the state will help to deflect any approaching
western Pacific system from impacting the coast. Friday and into
the weekend, in what looks like a rinse and repeat of the current
weather system, another WNPac low will ride the ridge north into
the western Bering. Another front is expected to drive east across
the Aleutian Chain and AKPen into Sunday. Continued unseasonably
warm and wet weather will continue through the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light northwesterly winds persist
through late this evening. Light rain will continue to be
intermittent and ceilings may at times drop below 5000 ft. Low-
level wind shear will remain an issue as southeasterly winds
continue aloft. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds then have the
potential to return to the terminal at the surface late this
evening, beyond about 06Z. Winds may gust intermittently 20-25 kt.
Winds become light southerly late Monday morning.
Quesada
&&
$$
061
FXAK69 PAFG 051341
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
541 AM AKDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Stormy conditions are continuing today across much of the West
Coast. A brief break is anticipated Tonight and Monday before the
next coastal storm moves into the area Monday night. This storm
will bring strong winds, and heavy rainfall to much of Northern
Alaska Tuesday through Thursday. We are anticipating there to be
coastal impacts from this storm including coastal flooding,
erosion, and wave run up.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered showers in the Eastern Interior today.
- Alaska Range Gap winds of 65 mph are continuing this morning,
and will begin to weaken this afternoon.
- Widespread heavy rainfall is possible starting Monday night and
ending early Thursday. Storm total rainfall amounts are in the
1.0" to 1.5" range. Some locations could receive up to 2
inches.
- Gusty southwest winds are possible Monday night and through
Wednesday. In the higher terrain wind gusts could be up to 40
mph, while the Interior valleys could see wind gusts up to 30
mph.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- With our current low in the Bering Sea weakening, coastal
impacts from this system are diminishing. Lingering showers and
gusty winds associated with a warm front will exit the Northwest
Interior this afternoon.
- A brief dry period for the West Coast will last until Monday
afternoon.
- Late Monday afternoon/evening, a low in the Bering brings its
initial front to the coast bringing moderate rain and gusty
winds. These conditions will be a prelude to the conditions on
Tuesday.
- Early Tuesday morning the low in the Bering will be undergoing
rapid intensification. Along with coastal impacts from this
system, there will be strong southwesterly winds and heavy
rainfall. Some areas could see wind gusts up to 75 mph.
- This can result in widespread coastal impacts including coastal
flooding and/or significant erosion. More details can be found
in "coastal hazard potential" section.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Easterly winds of 30 to 40 mph will continue this morning, and
will begin to weaken this afternoon. Winds will generally be
light Sunday night to Wednesday morning. Wednesday evening winds
shift southwesterly and then westerly. These westerly winds
could bring coastal flooding and erosion. These concerns are
highlighted in the Coastal Hazard Potential section.
- Light snow develops in the Central Brooks Range Sunday morning
and continues into the evening before ending. More widespread
snow develops in the Central/Western Brooks Range and North
Slope Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday night. Scattered snow
showers could persist into Thursday.
- Storm total snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches in
Anaktuvuk Pass and the North Slope, 4 to 9 inches in Atigun
Pass and potentially upwards of 18 inches in the Western
Brooks Range north/east of Shungnak.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The weakening 985 mb Bering Sea Low will begin to move southeast
into the Gulf of Alaska, as the stout ridge that currently
occupies the Gulf moves east. This low will provide our support
for isolated to scattered showers later today in the Eastern
Interior. With the ridge moving off to the east, our pressure
gradient across the Alaska Range will slack, and our current
threat of gap winds will subside by this afternoon.
Looking towards Monday, a 980 mb low will move over Shemya on the
Aleutian Islands. This low will move into the Central Bering
overnight Monday. During this time the low will begin to rapidly
intensify. The 06z Deterministic GFS/Nam have this low bottoming
out around 958 mb west of St. Lawrence Island Tuesday morning. The
ECMWF has the low slightly weaker at around 968 mb. The ensembles
have much better agreement this morning. The GEFS and ECMWF Ens
has the range of potential low pressures from 957 mb to 970 mb.
With this much better agreement we are expecting the low to bottom
out in the low 960s. Previously there was some uncertainty
regarding the track of this system. The ensembles and
deterministic models are in agreement that the Low will move west
of St. Lawrence Island and into the Bering Strait. With this
track there will be a large fetch of strong southwesterly winds
into Norton Sound. The warm front that is connected to this low is
accompanied with a very potent 850 mb jet. This jet is 60 to 75
knots that will stretch from the Bering Sea to the Kuskokwim
Valley and then the Tanana Valley. With heavy rainfall expected to
accompany this front, we are expecting winds to be able to freely
mix down. There will be an atmospheric river that is feeding
moisture into Mainland Alaska. This atmospheric river is producing
precipitable water anomalies of 3 to 5 sigma across the Interior.
Widespread 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely with some areas
receiving up to 2 inches of rain. The impacts from this system
will be a multi-day event stretching from Monday night to Thursday
morning.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7..
As the low moves north into the Chuckchi Sea, the North Slope will
begin to see impacts Wednesday morning. Southerly wind gusts are
anticipated to be up to 40 mph across the Western Arctic Plains
and Coast. The weakening warm front will produce some rain/snow
showers along the coast and rain on the Arctic Plains. The winds
will shift westerly as the low moves towards the Canadian
Archipelago Thursday. These winds should be 30 to 40 mph, with
the exception of near Kaktovik. Kaktovik could see winds near 50
mph Thursday night and Friday.
Our next Bering Sea low will move into the Far Western portions of
the Bering Friday. This low is expected to remain on the western
portion of the Bering, this will limit the impacts onto the West
Coast. There will be some weak features that will rotate around
this low bringing some gusty winds and rain chances to the West
Coast this weekend.
&&
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 through 5...
Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from Utqiagvik to Hooper
Bay. While some places won`t see "warning level flooding" there is
a chance for significant impacts in all of these spots and every
community along the coast. Details below.
We are anticipating 2 to 3 high tides that will see higher waters.
For communities that are south of the Bering Strait, these high
tides will be Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, and Wednesday
afternoon. North of the Bering Strait it will be the two Wednesday
high tides. There could be concerns Thursday morning particularly
when the winds turn northwesterly, but there is limited tidal
forecast data for that morning. Hooper Bay to Nunam Iqua is
expected to see 3 to 6 feet above mean high water (MHHW). Stebbins
to Shaktoolik will be 4 to 8 feet above MHHW. Koyuk will have the
highest water of 5 to 11 feet above MHHW. Elim to Wales will see 4
to 8 feet above MHHW. Shishmaref to Kotzebue is expecting 3 to 8
feet above MHHW. Red Dog to Point Lay is expecting 4 to 8 feet
above MHHW. Wainwright to Utqiagvik is expecting 3 to 5 feet
above MHHW.
We are expecting significant erosion for many along the coast
with coastal flooding likely, especially in more vulnerable
locations. Preparations should be made for a strong coastal storm
everywhere along the coast as most, if not all communities will
see some sort of impact.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ801>803-815>818.
Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ820>822-824-825-827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-810-851-855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-814-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859>861.
&&
$$
Dennis
551
FXAK67 PAJK 051339
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
539 AM AKDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SHORT TERM.../ through Sunday night / Front continues to move
across the gulf and the panhandle starting in the northern portion
including Juneau Sunday morning, and then southeast to south
central Angoon/Kake by Sunday evening, then to the southern
panhandle (Ketchikan area) by early Monday morning. A period of
heavier rain rates as the front move through which should take
about 3 hours and that 3 hour block should release a quarter to
half inch of rain. Winds today through the inside 10 to 20 mph.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through the weekend/...The long term
forecast starts off with a return to form for SE AK - which is to
say a front moving into the panhandle. The track of its parent
low, which dives NW out of the interior, would during winter
normally herald the arrival of a snow producing system. Given that
this is only early October, anticipate it be primarily a rain
event for most locations, although snow levels dropping down to
3,500-4,500ft will open up the opportunity for the termination
dust line to likely continue to work down the mountainside. The
possibility of snow mixing down to White Pass is possible and
could result in a dusting to minor accumulations for this area
especially during heavier periods of precipitation Thursday into
Friday. Everywhere below 3,000ft is expected to continue to see
rain. Headed into the weekend, high pressure returns across the
Gulf, though the positioning of the ridge could result in some
moderate onshore flow, bringing with it some lingering cloud
cover and shower chances. Long term guidance points towards a near
normal trend for this time of the year. Although places to the
north will likely see a higher potential for above normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation. While farther to the
south, there is a greater chance for near normal temperatures but
potentially below normal precipitation for the next one to two
weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...As a front tracks inland, CIG and VIS are dropping
into MVFR/IFR as moderate rainfall arrives, and a heavier band of
precipitation will move from North to South through Sunday and
Sunday night. Onshore flow continues bringing rain into the
panhandle at times through much of Tuesday.
Wind speeds will increase as the front passes through, upwards of 10
to 15 kts with higher gusts, highest wind speeds in the north.
But once the front clears your area, wind speeds will decrease.
LLWS is a possibility. For the Yakutat area, it should begin after
08 to 09z. For the rest of the panhandle, the potential LLWS will
start to slide in the central panhandle after 14 to 15z and spread
east and south for the rest of the day with decreasing LLWS chances
Sunday evening. Some turbulence is also possible further aloft,
especially for areas around Yakutat and Sitka, for additional
information, see the forecast produced by the Alaska Aviation
Weather Unit.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside: Winds increasing across the outside waters and Gulf
Sunday with a frontal system pushing across. Gales over the
outside waters from Cape Suckling to Icy Cape early Sunday, then
Icy Cape to Cape Spencer Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions
developing from Cape Spencer on south to Dixon Entrance. After a
brief lull in winds and waves Sunday night, a weakening low
pressure system will push southeast along the coast early next
week, brining increasing winds and seas. May see Small Craft
Advisory winds for the outer coastal waters, but an elevated
southwest to west swell looks to bring seas up to 13+ feet across
the outside coastal waters.
Inside: Light winds early Sunday will increase from the south and
east with an incoming frontal passage, becoming moderate to
fresh. A weakening low pressure system pushing southeast along the
coast early next week will keep winds elevated. especially
across southern Chatham Strait, southern Stephens Passage and
Frederick Sound, before lifting as clouds and rain move in.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031>034-641>643-661>664.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...Bezenek
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