889
FXAK68 PAFC 071235
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Two distinct shortwaves are rotating around an upper-level low
centered over the Alaska Panhandle this morning. The first of
these waves is moving over the Copper River Basin and is spreading
mid-level clouds over the eastern half of Southcentral along with
a few isolated showers over the Susitna Valley. The second, more
potent shortwave is near Yakutat this morning and is bringing rain
showers to the coast near Cordova. This feature will be the one to
bring steadier showers across Southcentral from east to west
through the day.
Thunderstorm potential over the Copper River Basin looks a bit
diminished from yesterday, due in part to the lingering cloud
cover from the first shortwave trough moving through the region
this morning. A distinct band of cloud cover and moisture is also
associated with the second wave, with both helping to keep
temperatures a bit cooler and the airmass a bit more stable over
the Basin today. Farther west, clouds should scattered out
between these two features, allowing for additional daytime
heating and better instability. As such, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are again possible across the Susitna
Valley. A few thunderstorms will also be possible along the
foothills of the Kenai and western Chugach Mountains.
As this wave moves west through the Copper River Basin today, it
will run into yet another wave, associated with a surface front,
moving east from Southwest Alaska. As this wave digs across
Kennedy Entrance, it will pull moisture from the other as winds
aloft become more southeasterly. This will allow showers to
overspread Cook Inlet, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su Valleys late
tonight through early Wednesday morning. a new surface low will
then spin up along the front and get pulled southeast into the
southern Gulf. The residual Copper River trough will then elongate
and get pulled southward through the day Wednesday with scattered
showers redeveloping over the higher terrain drifting east over
Anchorage and Cook Inlet in the east-northeast flow aloft.
One other item of note will be the development of strong
southeasterly gap winds for Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and
Copper River Valley this afternoon through late tonight with gusts
up to 35 mph possible.
-TM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...
Expect a similar pattern to unfold today as yesterday across the
Southwestern Mainland. That is to say another active day in the
shower and thunderstorm department across the interior. Although,
do not expect storm coverage or lightning activity to be quite as
high as yesterday. Expect another warm day as well with highs in
the middle to upper 50s along the coast with 60s and 70s inland. A
low in the Bering Sea, currently moving eastward near the
Pribilof Islands this morning, will continue to move towards the
southwest coast today. Its front will reach the coast this
afternoon and will bring light rain along the coast.
Cooler and more stable arrive for Wednesday as the Bering low
moves across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and into the Gulf.
Expect a cooler day Wednesday, even across the interior, where
temperatures will only make it to the middle 60s along with
overcast skies and rain showers. An upper-level shortwave digs
south from interior Alaska Thursday and delivers another round of
rain to interior Southwest Alaska beginning Thursday morning.
Highest confidence for rain will be from Sleetmute east to the
Western Alaska Range. There is more uncertainty for across Aniak,
as it will depend on the exact trajectory of this shortwave as it
approaches. The airmass in place once this shortwave arrives does
not look that unstable, therefore, lightning will be a lower
threat with this little system. Steady rain from Sleetmute to Lime
Village will taper off to showers Thursday night with leftover
showers remaining mostly confined to the terrain Friday morning.
Farther out west, the Bering low mentioned previously, will
continue to bring the AKPEN rain showers today as the front
advances inland this afternoon and the low itself crosses the
AKPEN. Showers end across the Pribilof Islands late tonight into
Wednesday morning as the low pulls away to the southeast. The one
thing that will not end will be low-stratus ceilings across the
area and much of the Bering. Northerly flow ensues behind this low
across the eastern Bering for Wednesday evening and Thursday with
more showers along the AKPEN as a ridge builds across the Central
Aleutians (Adak/Atka).
This ridge moves east to the Eastern Aleutians
(Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan) Thursday morning as a North Pacific
low and associated atmospheric river move to Adak/Atka by Thursday
afternoon and evening. This moisture plume and warm tropical air
will moves to the Eastern Aleutians by Thursday night and to the
southern AKPEN by Friday morning. Wind- wise, expect sustained
small-craft southerlies with gale-force gusts at the very least
with possibly (30 to 50 percent chance) some sustained gales along
the North Pacific marine zones of the Central and Eastern
Aleutians. Stay tuned for forecast updates regarding the evolution
of this warm and moist system slated for Thursday and Friday
across the Aleutian Chain.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
An upper-level ridge centered over the ALCAN will remain the
dominant synoptic feature through much of the long-term period,
supporting generally warmer conditions across mainland Alaska.
While the ridge promotes periods of sunshine, several weak
shortwaves rounding the ridge will keep the potential for
scattered showers across portions of Southcentral through the
weekend. The greatest chance for convective development will
remain over the eastern Copper River Basin, where daytime heating
combined with passing disturbances may support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday through
Sunday. Elsewhere across Southcentral, precipitation will be more
limited.
Across the Bering Sea and Aleutians, an active pattern persists
as a series of lows track eastward through the weekend, bringing
periods of rain, low clouds, and locally gusty winds. Forecast
confidence in the exact track and timing of these systems remains
moderate, though the highest confidence for more persistent
rainfall continues to be from Adak eastward to Unalaska.
Attention then turns to a stronger North Pacific low expected to
move into the western and central Bering over the weekend before
lifting toward Bristol Bay late Sunday into Monday. As the system
approaches, widespread rain will overspread much of Southwest
Alaska with increasing winds, especially along the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay coast.
By Monday, the low is expected to continue tracking inland while
gradually weakening, allowing rain to spread farther across the
Kuskokwim Valley and portions of interior Southwest Alaska.
Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska will remain on the eastern
periphery of the system beneath the upper-level ridge, supporting
isolated showers over the higher terrain while lower elevation may
experience a mix of clouds and sunshine. Although model spread
increases by Monday regarding the exact evolution of the low,
confidence is growing in a wetter pattern across Southwest Alaska.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will likely persist through the TAF
period. Winds will be light and variable through the early
afternoon. By the mid to late afternoon a Turnagain Arm wind will
redevelop and bring southeasterly gusts up to 30 kts. Through the
late afternoon/evening a shower in the vicinity of the terminal
is possible; however, downslope winds should stave off most
showers. Turnagain winds will gradually weaken through the
overnight and evening hours, but some gusty winds may linger
through tomorrow morning. Showers will likely develop over the
terminal by late tonight and linger into early Wednesday morning.
&&
$$
455
FXAK69 PAFG 071345
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
545 AM AKDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather will continue in the Interior Tuesday, with the
hottest temperatures in the northeastern parts of Alaska.
Isolated thunderstorms are likely across most of the Interior
Tuesday afternoon, with greater coverage in the Western and
especially southwestern Interior. Southerly winds through the
Alaska Range will briefly swell overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.
Hot temperatures and thunderstorm chances shift to the northern
half of the state on Wednesday, before conditions become more
moderate for most areas Thursday and Friday.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A warming and drying trend will continue across the Interior
through Tuesday with daytime temperatures rising into the 70s
and lower 80s. A heat advisory is in effect for the Yukon Flats
for highs near 85F Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures cool late
Wednesday into Thursday.
- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across much of the
Central and Eastern Interior with the exception being the Yukon
Flats. Thunderstorms will also be possible in the Alaska Range,
mostly on be the northern slopes.
- Tuesday night and into Wednesday, southerly flow through Isabel
Pass will briefly support gap winds gusting between 40 to 45
mph.
- Heavier rain is expected in the southern Central Interior
Wednesday and Thursday. The model spread is quite high still
making totals hard to predict, but between a half to an inch of
rain is possible from Minchumina to the Alaska Range for the 48
hour period, with 1 to 2 inches in the Western Alaska Range.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures will continue to be warm across the region with
daytime highs in the 70s and low 80s in the Western Interior
valleys. Along the coast, highs will be in the 50s/60s.
Temperatures will cool across the region on Wednesday.
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon across
the Western Interior with numerous thunderstorms in the southern
half. The thunderstorm threat will shift northward again
Wednesday, with coverage becoming isolated to scattered.
- Heavier rain is expected in the middle Kuskokwim Valley
Wednesday and Thursday. Totals are still uncertain but between a
half to an inch of rain is possible from McGrath to the Alaska
Range for the 48 hour period.
- Stronger southwesterly/westerly winds will develop Wednesday
afternoon and gusts up to 15 mph will be possible throughout the
western Interior Valleys through Thursday night.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Warm temperatures expected. Daytime temperatures warm into the
50s near Utqiagvik to near 80F on the Arctic Plains. A heat
advisory is in effect for the Arctic Plains for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the Brooks Range and
Central Arctic Plains Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 569 decameter upper-level high over the North Slope has slipped
gradually eastward into Canada overnight, leaving the Western and
Southern Interior under the influence of a pair of upper-level
lows. One is gradually losing steam in the eastern Gulf of Alaska,
the other is building slightly as it travels north of the
Aleutians towards Bristol Bay. The high will allow hot and dry
weather to persist along the Arctic Plains and in the Yukon Flats
on Tuesday and to a lesser extent on Wednesday. Maximum
temperatures across inland areas on Tuesday will be near 80, with
the eastern North Slope and Yukon Flats likely reaching the mid
80s. Wednesday, temperatures will be cooler, especially in the
Southern Interior where they are expected to peak in the low 70s.
However, the same northern and eastern regions will have the
potential to reach the mid 80s again, although it is less certain.
Meanwhile, the arrival of the low in the Bering will support
thunderstorm development, particularly in the Western Interior.
Tuesday afternoon, isolated thunderstorms appear likely in most of
the Interior and North Slope, with the exception of the Yukon
Flats and Eastern Brooks Range where the ridge is still
suppressing development. In the Western Interior, especially in
the Middle Kuskokwim to Middle Tanana Valley, models are showing
several hundred J/kg of CAPE, setting us up for another day of
numerous thunderstorms. As the Bering low approaches land Tuesday
night, surface low pressure will drop in the Interior. As a
result, southerly gaps winds through the Alaska Range will
strengthen. The current peak appears to be gusts up to about 45
mph between 0900Z (1AM) to 1500Z (7AM) Wednesday.
Wednesday, as the Bering low moves over the Alaska Peninsula
towards the Gulf of Alaska, it will pull some energy left over
from the Gulf low, back over Southern Alaska from east to west.
As a result, southern Alaska will be cooler and wetter, while the
northern half will be warmer again, with more chances for
thunderstorms. The area with the heaviest rain appears to be from
the Western Alaska Range to the Kuskokwim Valley around McGrath,
to the area around Minchumina. The model spread on the amount of
rain they could receive through Thursday is large, more than an
inch difference. The low end 25th percentile on the NMB is showing
0.50 to 0.75 in the valleys, with and inch or more in the Western
Alaska Range. Meanwhile, the high end 75th percentile dumps 1.50
inches in the valleys and up to 3 in the mountains. I am leaning
on the side of caution for now, expecting a half to three
quarters of rain for most of the area over the 48 hour period,
with a few spots getting more than an inch by the end of the day
Thursday. In the northern half of the Interior, and in the North
Slope, the weather should be warmer, thanks to the ridge still
clinging to the northwest corner of Alaska. Temperatures will be
in the 80s again for the Northern Interior, and the Yukon Flats
and eastern North Slope, will potential hit the mid 80s.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Western Interior and
Western Brooks Range where the high pressure is less influential.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Broad upper-level troughing continues to dominate the state with a
low in the Gulf of Alaska and a low approaching from the Bering Sea.
Shortwave energy will travel over the state associated with these
lows, causing showers and thunderstorms, especially over the West
Coast and Western Interior. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for
areas along the West Coast for today for the potential of numerous
lightning strikes. Red Flag Watches have also been issued for
Wednesday for the same general area for the potential of numerous
lightning strikes. Theses lows will travel eastward in tandem and by
Thursday the low that was in the Bering will be in the Gulf with the
potential of weak ridging building over the state by late Thursday
into Friday. Models are hinting at another low approaching from
Siberia on Friday, limiting the strength of the ridge. There is
still some uncertainty with the timing and strength of this low.
Today is generally expected to be the warmest day of the week with
each day becoming cooler through the week. Likewise, today is also
expected to be the driest with min RHs increasing each day this
weak. Beyond Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected to remain in the
northern areas of the state.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensemble models remain in reasonable agreement for Friday with a
broad upper level ridge of high pressure extending northeast from
Southwest Alaska to the Beaufort Sea, with two upper level lows: one
situated over in Southeast Alaska and another around the Bering
Strait. The broad troughing pattern to our west will be the main
driver of weather through the weekend, as it begins to shift east to
being over Northern Alaska. This setup will support the increasing
coverage of daily scattered showers regionwide through the weekend,
with the warmer and drier airmass under the ridge shifting east. A
first look at precipitation amounts Friday through the weekend shows
light amounts overall, with around a T-0.25" for most locations, and
around 0.25-0.50" for the Brooks Range and along the West Coast.
Highs on Friday will be near seasonal norms in the 60s/70s to low
80s for most, locally cooler along the coast, with Saturday shaping
up to be the warmest day in the Interior as the decaying ridge axis
shifts overhead, with gradually cooling temperatures rolling back in
for early next week. Looking ahead, while this broad upper level
troughing pattern looks to stick with us through the weekend, we
will be closely keeping an eye on the potential breakdown of this
pattern as models split on high pressure building back in versus
another storm working east through the Bering Strait. Until then,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms peaking in coverage
each afternoon and evening will be the going trend.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Fire Weather Watch for AKZ916-918-919-928.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ918-919-923-928-929.
Heat Advisory for AKZ833.
Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808.
PK...None.
&&
$$
Troyke
Lewis - Fire Weather
MacKay - Extended
560
FXAK67 PAJK 071833
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1033 AM AKDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.UPDATE...Showers continue across the area as a low pressure
system remain over the eastern gulf. A more organized band of
showers is beginning to move into Baranof and Prince of Wales
Islands. As this move through, erratic gusty winds may occur. We
are already seeing variable gusty winds near Hydaburg. Overall the
forecast remains largely on track. We will continue to monitor
the band of showers as it moves northward watching for any
thunderstorm potential.
.AVIATION...18z TAFs...Showers across the area are creating for
variable flight conditions. CIGS and VIS remain mainly VFR with
areas of MVFR. A secondary front is starting to move into the central
to southern coast. This will bring a more organized band of
showers across the area, especially for Baranof Island and Prince
of Wales Island. This is the area where we are mainly concerned
for convection and potential thunderstorm development. Confidence
on thunderstorm development has slightly decreased. That being
said, there is still a chance for TS development. The main hazard
from any thunderstorm development will be sporadic gusty winds.
Chances for thunderstorms are most likely late this morning into
early afternoon. After that, periods of showers continue with
another more organized band of precipitation, focused on the
southern panhandle, moves through the area tonight into tomorrow
morning. CIGs late tonight into tomorrow will remain variable with
the chance of a few areas, especially near Yakutat, seeing a low
cloud deck around 1000 ft over night. There is also a chance of
fog development if we get enough of a break, but forecast
confidence remains low. he
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- An organized band of strong showers approaches Baranof and
Prince of Wales Island Tuesday morning, expected to move inland
through the day.
- A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms will be possible,
with potentially gusty outflows from the stronger cells.
- Active weather continues midweek as shower potential continues
Wednesday and another front moves into the central and southern
panhandle through the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday/...The occluding front
continues to move northeastward into Canada, and has wrapped
around to send a secondary wave of showers towards the southern
and central panhandle Tuesday. This organized band of showers is
expected to bring a swath of 20 to 25 mph southeasterly winds to
the outer coast of Baranof and Prince of Wales Islands through the
latter half of Tuesday morning, with periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall pushing inland over the course of the day.
This band will also bring a slight chance of isolated
thunderstorms to parts of the southern and central panhandle,
which could cause erratic wind gusts and periods of heavy
rainfall. With a fresh injection of cold air, lapse rates may
exceed 8 degrees/km with CAPE values possibly exceeding 500 J/kg.
While this may not seem like much by either central Alaska or
CONUS standards, this is not climatologically normal for SE AK.
Modest effective bulk shear of around 20-30 knots shows that these
storms may have some structure to them, lasting longer than what
we would have normally seen. Additionally, with some drying above
around 600 mb, could see some substantial DCAPE associated with
these storms, resulting in gusty winds possibly exceeding 40 mph.
The potential for showers will exist as far north as the Icy
Strait Corridor, but breaks in the clouds are still expected for
the whole northern panhandle Tuesday. Southeasterly winds will
decrease overnight before picking back up through midday Wednesday
as another front moves northeast into the southern and central
panhandle through Wednesday evening and into Thursday. The far
southern panhandle will again be the main target of this front,
with 24 hour rainfall totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches.
High temperatures remain in the high 50s to low 60s through the
period, with lows in the high 40s to low 50s.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/...Another area of low
pressure moves from near Kodiak Island into the central gulf. This
low will bring more steady rain back to the panhandle, mainly
focused on southern areas. Currently no significant rain totals are
anticipated with largest 24 hour amounts around 1 to 1.5 inches.
There is a low chance, 10 to 15%, that up to 2 inches could fall
around the Annette Island area in 24 hours. Areas north of Frederick
Sound will see a lot lower of rain totals with near or below 0.4
inches. Around this time, late Thursday into Friday, there is a
chance that Skagway and Haines also sees a period of moderate rain
showers from a low over the BC area. The low in the gulf will then
continue to move SE and weaken eventually moving south of the
panhandle Friday. Periods of light showers will then continue late
Friday into Saturday. There is a chance for a few drier breaks on
Saturday, but confidence still remains low as there is little
agreement on the location of the ridge. On another note,
temperatures start to fall more in line with what we would typically
see for this time of year with high temperatures in the low to mid
60s across the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure system is
currently situated in the eastern gulf, headed towards the western coast
of Prince of Wales Island before it is expected to stall out. A
secondary frontal system will wrap around this low pressure
system going into Tuesday, once again increasing southeasterlies
to 20-25 knots with waveheights as 8 ft. This front looks
significantly more convective in nature, which may result in gusty
winds and thunderstorms, primarily impacting areas to the south of
Cape Edgecombe.
Inside (Inner Channels): The height of the stronger winds have
passed, with a general downward trend in the inner channels
through the evening. The secondary wrap of the low pressure system
moving near the western coast of PoW Island is then expected to
increase winds up to 20 knots in Clarence Strait. Furthermore,
thunderstorms are a possibility in Clarence Strait, Sumner Strait,
and the southern portion of Chatham Strait, at around 20% chance
of occurrence. There is some evidence that storms may move
northward along Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage towards the
Icy Strait area, but confidence is diminishing for this outcome.
Will definitely depend on how the low near PoW Island will behave
and how much sun will break through the clouds. Any thunderstorms
that will develop may have gusty winds up to 35 knots.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZTK/NC
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...STJ
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
