311
FXAK68 PAFC 081353
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKDT Tue Sep 8 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...
Southwesterly flow has overspread Southcentral ahead of a deep
upper level trough and embedded upper level low progressing
steadily east across Southwest this morning. Much of the greater
Cook Inlet region has dried out a little faster than anticipated
this morning, namely due to a dry slot that is surging in from
the AKPen and helping to suppress rainfall. Steadier rain is still
ongoing where flow is sloping upwards into the windward side of
the various mountain ranges, particularly along and near the
Chugach Mountains and Talkeetnas. Gusty southerly gap winds are
still holding on through the Copper Basin and along parts of the
Turnagain Arm and Anchorage area, but they should trend down
quickly as the incoming trough to our west erodes the coastal
pressure gradient. Shower activity will also really flare back up
later today as cool air aloft moves in with the main upper trough
axis, supporting a more unstable atmospheric profile. In fact, an
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible (around a 30%
chance) across parts of the northern Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su
Valleys, and perhaps even Anchorage this afternoon.
Looking ahead, the pattern will reset once again to something more
akin to summer than to fall. By tonight, the main trough moving
past us from Southwest will dip southeast into the Gulf as a
strong ridge begins to build back into place across the Bering Sea
and Southwest. This will put Southcentral back into a zone of
brisk northwesterly flow aloft, supporting gusty offshore gap
winds out of the typical valleys and fjords along the Gulf Coast
starting late tonight into early Wednesday. Lingering showers will
clear out overnight from west to east along with some of the cloud
cover in place as drier air works in from the north. Temperatures
will rebound back into the 60s for most lower elevations for
Wednesday afternoon, especially where offshore winds and
downslope warming in the lee of the mountains continues along the
coast for spots like Whittier and Seward.
Not a whole lot of change is expected across the region for
Thursday as the longwave ridge continues to gain amplitude and
drift slightly east. A warm front associated with a very large low
pressure system moving over Siberia and the Chukchi Sea will
steadily progress north across Southcentral as it heads towards
the Interior through Thursday evening. However, this feature is
anticipated to do little beyond increase cloud cover as it passes
through, with all but areas near Broad Pass expected to stay mild
and dry throughout the day. Highs on Thursday will also be even
warmer, perhaps touching 70 near Kodiak, Seward, Whitter and
Valdez during the afternoon hours.
-AS
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday afternoon)...
Key Messages:
* Showery and breezy through tonight for most of Southwest. An
afternoon lightning strike or two can`t be ruled out north of
King Salmon.
* A building ridge will bring benign weather (but increasing fog
chances) on Wednesday, then a potent front gradually tracks
eastward across the Bering starting Wednesday morning.
* We continue to monitor the potential for minor flooding and
coastal erosion in Kuskokwim Delta and along Kuskokwim River for
Thursday and Friday.
Discussion:
Currently, upper level troughing extends from Southwest Alaska
down through the eastern Aleutians into the North Pacific, with
the main vertically stacked low residing over Bristol Bay. This
has brought showers across much of Southwest Alaska into the
Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) and southwesterly to westerly, small-
craft force winds across the eastern Bering and waters south of
the AKPen. To the west, a ridge is building over the western
Bering. Some small craft winds are present over the western
Aleutians near a dissipating front and patches of fog are present
throughout the Bering, otherwise the weather is mostly benign.
The vertically stacked low over Bristol Bay crosses the Alaska
Range and moves into Southcentral by this afternoon. Scattered
showers accompany the low and will persist throughout Southwest
and the AKPen today. There is a low chance for a lightning strike
or two north of King Salmon this afternoon (10-20 percent). Cold
air aloft and vorticity are the main drivers of the chance for a
lightning strike, but the lack of surface heating given the early
passage of the low this morning keeps this chance low. As winds
become more westerly late this afternoon, rainfall becomes more
concentrated along the western Alaska Range and areas in the AKPen
where winds upslope. As the low moves east tonight, winds weaken
and upper level vorticity decreases. Lingering showers along the
mountains will taper off overnight tonight, with only the northern
portions of the Alaska Range seeing showers persist into
Wednesday.
Ridging is already building in behind the low over the western
Bering and Aleutians. Some patches of fog will persist through the
Bering and Aleutians, otherwise the weather today will be mostly
benign. For weather conditions later in the week, the ridge will
be one of the key influences on how stormy the weather will be
across the Bering and Southwest Alaska in the coming days. For
Southwest, the AKPen, and the eastern Aleutians, Wednesday will be
quiet. Some showers may linger along northern portions of the
Alaska Range. Out west, a Kamchatka low will push its front into
the Western Bering (along the western periphery of the ridge)
beginning Wednesday morning. Models have generally been trending
towards a more resistant ridge, one that will be strong enough to
keep the worst winds in the Western Bering and perhaps only
clipping the northern parts of Kuskokwim Delta. With the ridge
trending stronger and the front continually being displaced north
and westwards, concern for coastal erosion and flooding for
Kuskokwim Delta is diminishing. Still, we continue to closely
monitor the behavior of this front and its ridge. Though the storm
will be weaker in this area and tides will generally be
decreasing around this time, the other factor to consider will be
an influx of water down Kuskokwim River due to recent rainfall,
which may still cause flooding issues along Kuskokwim River
itself, and especially near where the mouth of the river opens out
into Kuskokwim Bay. Stay tuned.
-PA/KC
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
A highly amplified pattern is expected through the second half of
the week as a deep upper level Kamchatka low opens into a trough
in the western Bering while a strong upper ridge slides east
across the Mainland Friday through Saturday. Models remain
consistent on the overall upper level longwave pattern with the
biggest uncertainty continuing to be the exact timing and
placement of individual shortwaves embedded within the mid to
upper level flow. The strong surface low over eastern Russia
continues to trend farther north and west, with ensemble model
guidance steady in the general northeastward track across far
eastern Siberia and into the Arctic Ocean Friday into Saturday.
Confidence remains high on its associated gale- force front
tracking east across the Bering through mid to late this week,
bringing gusty southwesterly winds and moderate to heavy rainfall
across the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands.
The strong front similarly continues to trend farther north in
the Bering as its eastward progression stalls against the strong
high pressure stretching across the North Pacific into the
southern Mainland. The longest duration and strongest core of
winds with this system is now expected to affect the Norton Sound
and Seward Peninsula region through Friday. Despite this shift in
the storm track, a period of gusty small-craft to potentially
gale-force winds along the front is still likely to impact the
Kuskokwim Delta coast by Thursday night through Friday evening.
The long fetch of strong, southwesterly onshore winds could bring
the possibility of high surf and minor coastal flooding and
erosion along the Kuskokwim Delta coast as the front progresses
through the region. Elevated water levels in the Lower Kuskokwim
River due to preceding rainfall across the Interior, combined with
additional rainfall, could lead to minor river flooding for
communities along the river from Bethel to the Kuskokwim Bay.
Details will continue to become clearer in the coming days on the
exact timing and potential impacts of this upcoming late-week
storm.
Behind this system, weaker west-southwesterly flow continues over
the Bering and Southwest Alaska through the weekend, while the
weakening frontal system and rainfall continues east into
Southcentral and the Gulf. Broad troughing remains centered over
the Bering, with models hinting at the pattern becoming more
amplified once again as a low lifts north out of the North Pacific
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Waves of rain showers will continue moving across the
terminal for the rest of the morning, with a general decrease in
coverage by midday. As such, expect MVFR visibilities and MVFR to
IFR ceilings for much of the remainder of the morning. There is
some uncertainty in how low ceilings fall this morning, especially
around the 14-18z timeframe. Also, the Turnagain Arm wind with
gusts to around 20 to 30 knots will be the case until midday, with
winds thereafter diminishing rapidly as lighter southwesterly
winds take over by this afternoon.
-AM
&&
$$
079
FXAK69 PAFG 081308
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKDT Tue Sep 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers expected to become more widespread, along
with a slight cooling trend, throughout the day Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- Gusty west winds expected to gradually increase through
Wednesday with potential gusts between 30 and 40 mph
possible. The strongest winds are expected in the higher
terrain north of Fairbanks. Some of these winds may have
issues reaching to the valleys that are sheltered from the
west. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Interior through
Wednesday night.
- Scattered showers and a slight warming trend is expected
through the latter half of the week. By Early Thursday
morning, showers will be more widespread over the Central
Interior and more isolated over the Eastern Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered showers expected to continue through Tuesday
afternoon.A brief lull in precipitation is expected for most
areas Tuesday night before starting up again after midnight
with a W to E moving cold front from the Chukchi.
- A strong low is expected to move NE from the western Bering
into Siberia Wednesday night, swinging a NW-SE oriented warm
front across the West Coast. With this system, expect
widespread rain, gusty winds, and the potential for high surf
and minor coastal erosion.
- Through Thursday night, for areas north of the YK-Delta,
rain totals are expected to be between 0.5" and 2.0". The
heavier amounts are expected along the southern Seward
Peninsula and areas south of the Western Brooks Range.
- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward
Peninsula Coast north to Kivalina for water level rises
around 2 to 4 feet above the normal highest high tide line.
- High Wind Watches have also been issued for St. Lawrence
Island and the Bering Strait for wind gusts up to 60 mph.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Scattered rain showers are expected to continue through
Tuesday.This will be quickly followed by a weak, W to E
moving cold front early Wednesday. Rain showers are expected
to continue across most of the Arctic Plains with higher
elevations over the Brooks Range expected to see a rain/snow
mix.
- A strong low is expected to move NE from the western Bering
into Siberia Wednesday night, swinging a NW-SE oriented warm
front across the North Slope by early Thursday morning. With
this system, expect widespread rain and gusty winds. Along the
NW Arctic Coast, there is a chance for high surf and minor
coastal erosion.
- Through Thursday night, rainfall totals across the Arctic
Pains and the NE Arctic Coast are expected to be between
0.15" and 0.4". While the NW Arctic Coast, from Utqiagvik to
the Western Brooks Range, could see totals between 0.5" and
1.0".
- High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Western/NW
Arctic Coasts from Point Hope to Wainwright for water level
rises around 3 to 5 feet above the normal highest high tide
line.
- High Wind Watches have also been issued for Point Hope to
Point Lay for wind gusts up to 60 mph.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers are expected to continue across much of the
state through the early week ahead of a series of fronts moving
in. The first will be a weak cold front progressing W to E
across the North Slope starting late Tuesday night. This will
help to continue the showery pattern as the front progresses.
Meanwhile, a strong low is expected to move NE out of the Bering
into Siberia. This, along with a strengthening ridge, will
provide the state with southwesterly winds that will slowly
increase through the latter half of the week. The initial round
of strong winds will be Wednesday across the Interior. A series
of wind advisories are in effect across the Interior. Starting
Wednesday night, the ridge and low will strengthen slightly,
allowing for a stronger south to southwesterly across the
Bering. This is expected to set up a prolonged period of gusty
winds between 50 and 60 mph across the West Coast. As a result,
there is a slight chance for some areas across the Norton Sound
and Kotezbue Sound to see potential coastal impacts. A series of
high surf advisories and high wind watches are in effect across
the West Coast. In addition to the strong winds, an abundant
amount of precipitation is expected to accommodate this system
which will allow for heavy and persistent rainfall for some
isolated locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Not much change has been made to the overall forecast. A quick
look at satellite imagery shows much of the state covered with
mid to low level clouds and scattered showers. This is
associated with a 544 decameter upper level low that has set up
over Bristol Bay. This continues to provide much of Northern
Alaska with southerly flow aloft, allowing for the continuous
influx of moisture and shortwaves. The southerly flow continues
to provide the Alaska Range passes with gusty southerly winds
and is expected to continue throughout Tuesday morning. The rest
of the day will consist of this upper level low progressing
eastward across the Alaska Peninsula, and into the northern
portion of the Gulf of Alaska. This will continue to provide
isolated showers across portions of Northern Alaska. As the
shortwave moves into the northern Gulf, 850mb and 925mb
temperatures are showing a slight cooling trend as cooler air
moves in from the NW. This will help to slightly amplify the
trough, setting up west to northwesterly flow across Northern
Alaska as the trough axis moves across the Alaska Panhandle.
Starting early Wednesday morning, this northwesterly setup will
allow for a shortwave to move E-SE from the Chukchi to the
southern portions of the Yukon Flats. Previous model runs were
showing a good amount of disagreement with the trajectory of how
far south the trough will be able to push as it shifts east. The
latest runs show that models are trending toward the ECMWF,
which was expected based on the discussion from the previous
morning. A weak cold front is expected to progress W to E across
as part of this trough. This will allow for isolated showers to
continue across the North Slope and most of the Central/Eastern
Interior. As the front moves across the state Tuesday night
into Wednesday, a 30-40kt westerly, low-level jet is expected
to form across much of the Interior. This will provide much of
this area with increased wind gusts through Thursday morning.
The strongest winds across the Interior are expected to be at
the higher elevations, along with any valleys that are not
sheltered by terrain to their west. A series of wind advisories
are in effect across the Interior through Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, a 980mb low will be moving NE from the Western
Bering into Siberia Wednesday night with an upper-level ridge
building up over the Bering Sea. This building ridge will set up
the potential for a 1040mb high to set up in the north Pacific
and play a major role for the remainder of the forecast period.
An associated warm front will extend to the SE from the low over
Siberia, moving NE across the West Coast Wednesday night into
Thursday. The low over Siberia and the high in the north Pacific
will set up a period for prolonged south to southwesterly flow
across the Bering Sea and West Coast. Integrated Vapor
Transport outputs from several models are showing the potential
for this system to tap into an atmospheric river stretching as
far southwest as Japan. This will provide much of the West Coast
a chance to see heavy rainfall through the end of the week, with
storm totals as high as 1.5" to 2" in some locations. With the
southwesterly flow, the most favorable positions for the
heaviest precipitation will be on the south side of higher
terrain. These areas include the southern Seward Peninsula and
areas south of the Western Brooks Range. The prolonged period of
strong, southwesterly winds will also provide a chance for
coastal concerns across the West Coast. More on this will be
discussed in the Coastal Hazard section.
By Thursday, the ridge from the Bering will continue to shift
east across the state as the low from Siberia shifts NE out of
Siberia and into the Chukchi. By this point, the strongest gusts
across the West Coast will shift through the Bering Strait and
the NW Arctic Coast. The strength of this ridge will play a role
as too how much precipitation will fall across the southern
portions of the Interior. The latest guidance is showing the
potential for a decent amount through the start of the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Attention for the start of the long term forecast continues to
remain focused on the surface low now shifting more eastward
across the Arctic. With the ridging expected to hold in place,
this will keep the west/southwest gradient prevalent across the
state. This will keep winds gusty in place as the low continues
to shift east across the Arctic Coast throughout the weekend. A
quick look at the upper-level pattern shows a noticeable
difference amongst the GFS. It is showing the associated upper
level trough to dig further south across parts of the North
Slope as it shifts east. Interestingly, this trough is weaker
with the GFS in comparison to the EC and the Canadian, which do
not have the trough digging further south. With that said, the
GFS quickly becomes an outlier as it does not seem to have a
good grasp on this system.
As the weekend progresses, west to southwesterly flow looks to
continue across much of Northern Alaska. There is good agreement
amongst the models in showing a week shortwave moving across
the Norton Sound Saturday night into Sunday. The associated
surface low does not look to be as strong, thus winds with this
do not look to be a concern at this time. However, it is showing
the potential to bring another round of scattered showers
across much of the West Coast and the Interior as some of the
ridging will have flattened over the Eastern Interior with its
eastward progression.
By the start of next week, all models are showing the potential
for another low to move north across the Central Aleutians and
into the Bering Sea. Deterministic models are showing the
strength of this low to be anywhere between 970 and 990mb,
while ensembles are closer to around 1000mb. This low is being
brought north by a negatively tilted ridge that will be building
up over the Bering around Monday. The track and strength of
this low will be greatly dependent on how this ridge manifests.
With that said, there is a great deal of uncertainty at this
time regarding potential impacts given the various model
solutions. This will continue to monitored closely over the next
several model runs.
&&
Coastal Hazard Potential...
A developing Siberian low will move northeast towards the Chukchi
Sea setting up southwesterly flow across the West Coast. This low
will bring gale force winds into Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound.
With these strong winds and long fetch of the winds we will see
water rises across the West Coast. For much of the coastline we
could see rises of 2 to 5 feet with the highest rises from Elim to
Unalakleet.
With the strong southwesterly winds continuing for roughly 48
hours, there will be multiple high tide cycles that will be
elevated. Waters will begin to rise Wednesday and will peak
Thursday night for the communities along the Norton Sound and
the Y-K Delta Coastline. The higher waters are expected to
continue through Friday. For communities along Kotzebue Sound
and then the NW Arctic Coastline waters will rise early Thursday
morning and peak Friday morning. The higher waters for this
region will continue into Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures cool Tuesday as a low over Southern Alaska brings
showers to the Interior. As the low moves east, showers follow
bringing higher chances of wetting rain across the Interior. The
Upper Tanana Valley is expected to see some rain with this system
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A cold front associated with a
shortwave low moves out of the Chukchi Sea east across the Interior
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Showery conditions continue along
the initial front as it moves east. Showers become more isolated
behind the front. Gusty westerly winds are expected across the
Interior behind the front as a strong jet develops at 925 millibars.
Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are generally expected across the
Interior Wednesday with some stronger gusts possible across higher
elevations north and east of Fairbanks. Temperatures cool further
Wednesday with highs falling into the low to mid 50s across most of
the Interior.
Another low moves through eastern Siberia late Wednesday into
Thursday which brings another round of strong winds and heavy rain
to parts of the West Coast and Western Interior and a warming trend
to the entirety of Northern Alaska. The wind and rain impacts will
be much weaker farther east into the Interior. The Southeastern
Interior is not expected to see much rain with this system. Instead
temperatures will warm again with highs reaching back into the 60s
by the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A weak Bering Sea low will be bringing 0.25" to 0.75" of
rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Tuesday.
While this amount of rainfall wouldn`t typically warrant hydro
concerns, it does prelude a bigger event Wednesday night through
Sunday. A strong low will move into the Chukchi Sea late
Wednesday night and will be accompanied with an atmospheric
river extending to the tropics. This atmospheric river will help
to produce 72 hour rainfall totals of 0.5" to 2.5" for most of
Northern Alaska. The Upper Tanana Valley and Upper Yukon will be
the driest spots with only up to 0.25" of rainfall expected. On
the flip side the wettest areas will be the Southern Seward
Peninsula and the south slopes of the Western Brooks Range will
be the wettest.
This additional rainfall is not expected to create any concerns
along the mainstem rivers. However, on the smaller creeks and
streams could see rapid rises and/or bankfull conditions.
Recreators should be prepared for rapidly changing water
conditions in the smaller tributaries.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday
for AKZ801-802.
High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
afternoon for AKZ801.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday
for AKZ815>818.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 PM AKDT Friday
for AKZ820>822.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday
night for AKZ820-821-827.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ831>846.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
afternoon for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT
this evening for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT
Wednesday for PKZ804-809.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for
PKZ804-856.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for
PKZ806-807.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for
PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT
this evening for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this
evening for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ853.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for
PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT
this evening for PKZ855.
&&
$$
KEY MESSAGES...Twombly
SYNOPSIS.......Twombly
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
LONG TERM......Twombly
COASTAL........Dennis
FIRE WEATHER...Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Dennis
719
FXAK67 PAJK 081241
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
441 AM AKDT Tue Sep 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A strong front moves in Tuesday, bringing moderate to heavy rain
and breezy conditions to the panhandle. Skagway will likely see
wind gusts up to 50 mph.
- For the latter half of the week, high pressure returns with more
sun and high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Primary focus Tuesday morning is stout southerly
winds filling in across the Panhandle, accompanied by respectable
rainfall. Expect wind/rain to pick up along the northern coast
through Tuesday morning, spreading east into the northern and
central Panhandle by the early afternoon. Not a great day to be
out and about in a small vessel, see marine section for inner
channel wind hazards. For folks nestled safely onshore, this will
be our first real southerly blow of the fall season. Overnight the
focus has been on wind speeds along and north of Frederick Sound,
with gusts 30 to 40 knots likely for Juneau, Skagway, and Haines,
with a brief period of 40+ knot winds for Skagway in the
afternoon. Highest winds likely starting near 3pm Tuesday and
persisting into the evening. We have upgraded the Wind Advisory to
included these areas; however, there is much higher confidence
for 40+ knot winds in Skagway.
Moving on to rain, the published forecast maintains about 1 to
2.5 inches of rain for most of the region over the next 24 hours,
with locally higher amounts in steep terrain. No flooding is
anticipated at this time. With that said, we will see some rise in
smaller creeks and streams. Wednesday, cold air on the backside
of this system will drive some instability, allowing the potential
for a few thunderstorms to form along our coast from Cape
Fairweather south into Baranof.
.LONG TERM.../ Thursday through Monday /...Low pressure will
continue to remain over the gulf before diving to the south
Thursday morning. As this low dives south along the coast towards
Haida Gwaii, high pressure will start to build into the Yukon and
British Columbia from the Alaskan Interior. With the ridge on the
heels of the low, there looks to be a tight pressure gradient
forming Thursday night into Friday morning. The orientation of
this gradient looks to favor north-south oriented water ways at
this time so we could see some significant northerly winds for the
end of the week and into the start of the weekend. With the flow
becoming offshore during this time, we should dry out again thanks
to drier air moving in from Canada. Some forecast guidance is
also leaning into 850mb temperatures dropping down to 0C as this
air moves along the Coast Mountains but agreement on this is still
on the lower end. With the offshore winds and clearing skies,
daytime temperatures look to get back into the 60s and potentially
some 70s for some locations.
Heading towards the start of next week, GEFS and some members of the
EPS want to develop a low over the Northern Gulf but agreement on
this idea is still low. Otherwise, high pressure looks to remain in
the area heading into next week allowing for a fairly quiet pattern
to set up for the area.
&&
.AVIATION.../through 12z Wednesday/ Lots of MVFR conditions with
scattered areas of IFR or lower around the panhandle this morning,
and it is just expected to get worse as the day goes on. A band of
moderate to heavy rain is expected to move W to E across the
panhandle through Tuesday night associated with a somewhat strong
front. The leading edge of it is already impacting Yakutat where
ceilings have dropped below 1000 ft as of 4 am. That is expected
to reach the northern inner channels around noon, The central
panhandle around this afternoon, and the southern panhandle this
evening. Expect ceilings to drop into IFR or lower with vis
dropping to 2 to 4 miles as the heavier precip moves in.
Conditions then improve, again from W to E starting tonight into
Wednesday as the front move east.
Winds will be the other factor with this front. Surface winds are
already gusting to 30 kt around N Lynn and Skagway this morning
and they are only expected to strengthen through the day. By this
afternoon and evening surface winds could be gusting to 45 kt
around N Lynn and Skagway with gusts to 25 to 35 kt for various
parts of the northern panhandle. Turbulence will likely be present
across the north as well this afternoon and evening. Winds across
the north then start to diminish late tonight. Southern panhandle
will not see as strong of winds, but there is the possibility
that there could be some low level wind shear post front late
tonight as winds aloft switch to SW and increase to around 30 to
35 kt while surface winds stay somewhat lighter and more S or SE.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside:
As of 0200 Tuesday focus remains on the developing low and fronts
near the Kenai, which will quickly advance east along the
northern coast through Tuesday. Expect east to southeast winds to
continue to ramp up through the day, with many areas from Cross
Sound to Cape St. Elias seeing strong breezes to near gales (20 to
30 knots). For folks south of Cape Edgecumbe, expecting southerly
winds of moderate to fresh breezes; however, southwesterly winds
will build later Tuesday afternoon, with fresh to strong breezes
expected to fill in across the Gulf Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning, with winds becoming westerly.
Touching on sea state, southwesterly swell of 5 to 7 ft near 12
to 15 seconds from a gale force low a few days ago south of the
Aleutians is currently impacting our coast. Through Tuesday
afternoon expect wave heights to increase to 10 to 12 ft, with the
dominant period diminishing to 9 to 12 seconds. Along the coast,
expect ESE winds mentioned above to drive a southerly wave
component as well. As westerly winds build Wednesday expect WNW
seas near 8 to 10 ft, diminishing by Friday. Expecting southerly
long period ground swell from Hurricane Lowell to spread along the
coast through Saturday, with significant heights of 2 to 4 ft.
Inside:
Simply put, Mariners navigating our waters should make ready for
strong southerly winds, with elevated westerly winds filling in
across Icy Strait into southern Lynn through Wednesday morning.
The first real southerly blow of the fall season is upon us. The
main message is much of the inner channels along and north of
Frederick will experience, at minimum, sustained winds of strong
breezes, with gale force winds likely in Lynn Canal. The primary
challenge this morning has been diagnosing the strength of the
wind for Icy Strait, Glacier Bay, and northern Stephens Passage.
For now, the forecast has been maintained to reflect gusts to gale
force for eastern Icy and northern Stephens by 12 to 3pm Tuesday
afternoon, with these winds persisting into the early evening.
Mariners navigating Glacier Bay should be aware of strong
southeasterly winds becoming southerly, with sustained speeds
likely reaching near-gale force, particularly in the upper arms.
As we move from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, winds
become westerly across Icy Strait, with speeds likely near fresh
to strong breezes. These winds will likely become southwest as
they move into southern Lynn, which historically brings some small
wave action into Auke Bay. Not forgetting about the southern
Panhandle, expect southerly fresh to strong breezes to impact
Clarence Strait Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Winds come down Wednesday late afternoon leaving some time for
folks to reposition before elevated northerly winds fill in
across the central and northern Panhandle Thursday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ318.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ319.
Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM AKDT this evening
for AKZ325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP
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