768
FXAK68 PAFC 060033
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A trough and surface low near the southern Kenai Peninsula will
lift north into the Interior through tonight, leading to more
coastal precipitation and afternoon gap winds into Anchorage, the
Mat Valley and Copper Valley. Shower activity will increase this
evening along the western faces of the Kenai, Chugach, and
Talkeetna Mountains as lapse rates increase due to some colder air
moving in behind todays trough. Behind this trough is another
that is digging south into Southwest Alaska today, over Kodiak
Island tonight, and then eventually lifting slightly into the
Copper Valley and northern Gulf by late Wednesday. This will wrap
additional cold air into the area, leading to more instability and
widespread shower conditions for Wednesday. Additionally, expect
increased westerly winds over southern Kenai Peninsula marine
zones from Kachemak Bay and through the Barren Islands.
Yet another trough will drop south from the Arctic into Southwest
on Thursday, leading to more southerly flow aloft and additional
moisture and scattered showers developing in the afternoon. Energy
will combine with a broad Pacific low to bring another round of
moisture to Kodiak Island and the north Gulf coast on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...
Currently, an upper-level low along the Arctic Coast of Northern
Alaska extends a trough southward across Western and Southwestern
Alaska. This is helping showery activity persist across Mainland
Bristol Bay today. There continues to be cold air that lingers
across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) with northerly flow in the
middle levels in the eastern Bering Sea. This is helping some
snowflakes to mix in with rain across Port Heiden and Pilot Point.
The trough axis continues to slide eastward tonight into
Wednesday as the showery activity will taper off by then.
High pressure across the central and eastern Bering today will
drift eastward and nudge in across Southwest and the AKPEN
Wednesday and persist into Thursday. This will promote relatively
drier conditions and light winds across the area both days, but
especially Wednesday. The upper-level low, currently along the
Arctic Coast of Northern Alaska, will begin to dig southward
Wednesday and begin to make its presence felt over the Kuskokwim
Valley and along the Western Alaska Range Thursday afternoon into
the evening hours and Friday. This upper low will be accompanied
by cold air aloft and elevated instability. Thus, diurnally-driven
showers will be possible mostly along the Western Alaska Range
Thursday afternoon and evening. For Friday, a North Pacific low
sends its front and moisture northward through the Gulf of Alaska.
The upper-level low, now over the lower Yukon Valley, will
interact with this moisture and help to draw more of it over
interior portions of Southwest, including interior Bristol Bay
along the Aleutian Range and portions of the Kuskokwim Valley, in
the form of Friday afternoon and evening showers. Despite the
instability and cold air aloft from the upper-level low over the
lower Yukon Valley, surface temperatures, in the middle 40s, look
to be too cold for thunderstorm formation along the Kuskokwim
Valley, interior Bristol Bay, and along the Western Alaska Range.
Farther out west, a low pressure system near Kamchatka has sent
its gale-force front to the western Bering and Western Aleutians
today. Shemya has reported misty conditions for most of the day
along with gusty southeast winds. However, steady light rain is
currently moving in over the area. Light rain and gusty
southeasterly to southerly winds will continue into tonight with
winds turning southwesterly across the far Western Aleutians by
Wednesday morning. The front continues drifting east to Kiska and
Amchitka Wednesday as it weakens. At the same time, the previously
mentioned strong central/eastern Bering ridge will drift eastward.
This will allow a little more eastward progression with the
weakening front with light rain making it over Adak for Wednesday
morning. Atka will remain mostly dry through the first half of
Wednesday. A weak North Pacific low lifts to south of Adak/Atka
Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will spread rain across Atka
during Wednesday afternoon and evening and help to keep rain
going across Adak. Rain becomes more showery across Adak/Atka by
Thursday morning as this low weakens in place south of the area.
Expect continued cloud cover showers from time to time Friday
across Shemya and Adak/Atka as additional shortwave move eastward
to the Bering from Kamchatka.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...
Models have come into better agreement regarding the long term
forecast. The global models all have a large North Pacific low
entering the southern Gulf and moving northeastward through Sunday
morning. If current trends continue, the low pressure system
itself moves to Southcentral`s east, but does bring with it
precipitation, mainly for coastal Southcentral areas. Looking
aloft, watching a digging trough or closed low move over Southwest
Alaska, though the question of if/when these two features
interact is still rather uncertain. If they do in fact interact,
the much larger upper trough with the "right" orientation could
help tug/retrograde the low back to the northwest, which would
increase precipitation chances for coastal Southcentral. The next
order of business is a strong front that moves across the
Aleutians and eventually into the western Gulf from Sunday
afternoon to Monday afternoon as its parent low situates itself
across the southern Bering. After the front pushes into the Gulf,
details become fuzzy. All said, the pattern looks to remain
active through the end of the long term.
-AM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail this evening under weak southeasterly
low level flow. The low level flow will then shift to southwest
overnight ahead of an upper level short-wave trough approaching
from the west. This will lead to lowering ceilings and development
of showers in the vicinity, with high confidence in dropping to
MVFR between 09 and 15Z. As the upper trough gets closer steady
light rain will develop Wednesday morning. Most likely ceilings
will stay in the MVFR category, but there is a small chance of IFR
ceilings at the terminal or in the vicinity.
Meanwhile, the terminal will remain right along the northerly edge
of the Turnagain Arm jet this afternoon and evening, making it a
challenge to determine timing of gusty southeasterly winds moving
in. The most likely period for gusty winds is 03 to 06Z, but it
could be a little longer than that. Once winds die down, they will
remain light through Wednesday.
-SEB
&&
$$
083
FXAK69 PAFG 060050 AAA
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
450 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2026
Updated Hydro Section
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system pushing across Northern Alaska is bringing areas
of rain and snow to much of the Interior. Gusty south winds in
the Alaska Range will diminish through this evening. In the
Central and Eastern Brooks Range and on the North Slope, snow
could be heavy in some areas. On the eastern Arctic Coast, blowing
snow will is expected from this evening into Thursday with gusty
westerly winds. Colder conditions are expected across the
Interior/West Coast beginning Wednesday and Thursday, with
isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior Thursday afternoon.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes are gusting at
30 to 45 mph but will decline through the night tonight.
- A cold front brings colder, occasionally gusty winds and
chances for precipitation into the Interior Tuesday afternoon.
Expect widespread rain/snow in the Central and Northeastern
Interior. Rain will be favored during the day with snow favored
overnight and at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall
accumulations are expected.
- Daytime high temperatures will be cooler through Thursday,
likely only reaching the mid/upper 40s Wednesday. Similarly, low
temperatures will cool into the low 30s, allowing for some
patchy areas of frost to develop overnight.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Frontal rain/snow in the Western Interior including near McGrath
is expected to end outside the mountains by late this evening
into tonight.
- Breezy north/northwest winds strengthen Tuesday night as the
front advances inland. Interior winds subside Wednesday evening
but remain strong along the Northwest Arctic Coast and into
Kotzebue Sound. Thursday, the strongest winds move to the
southern Bering Strait.
- Temperatures will remain cooler than average across the western
half of the state. High temperatures along the coast will be in
the low 40s farther inland. Lows will range from the upper
teens across the Seward Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s
across the Western Interior.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow showers continue in the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and
across the Eastern Arctic Coast. Widespread snow showers are
expected to reach Utqiagvik by late Tuesday night. Snow
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches will be possible through Thursday
between Utqiagvik and Nuiqsut.
- Total snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible
through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the
Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.
- North to northeast winds, at times gusty, will allow for
localized areas of blowing snow to develop through Wednesday
night where there is fresh and/or falling snow.
- Conditions begin to clear along the North Slope as high pressure
descends from the Arctic on Thursday.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Rain and snow is occurring across parts of the Interior along a
stationary front extending from the Western Brooks Range
northeastward to the Central/Eastern Brooks Range. With a cold
air mass across Western Alaska, there is a gradient of
precipitation type across the front, with snow on the back side in
the colder air and rain ahead of it. This will shift eastward
through this afternoon, with showers likely across the Eastern
Interior by late Wednesday morning. Snow will also be possible
with any showers overnight tonight as temperatures cool down. Snow
will also be favored in the higher elevations (especially above
2000 feet), including the White Mountains, Dalton Highway Summits,
and the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. Any snow that manages to
accumulate in Interior valleys will likely be short-lived due to
abundant surface heating during the daytime periods and residual
ground heat.
In the Central and Eastern Brooks Range, final snow totals
through Wednesday morning could exceed 6 to 8 inches with upslope
flow. In the Arctic Plains and on the Arctic Coast, most areas
will see the potential for at least a couple inches of snow
through Thursday. Along the Arctic coast between Utqiagvik and
Nuiqsut, around 4 to 7 inches of snow will be possible, with
higher totals possible offshore over the sea ice. On the eastern
Arctic Coast, the winds are currently light but will turn to
the west tonight as the front moves north. Given the likelihood
for a couple inches of light snow during this same time frame,
blowing snow will be possible with these winds. On Wednesday, as
a shortwave trough transits across the Eastern Interior from the
southwest, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the area,
especially in the Fortymile Country. Any storms will likely be
limited to mostly the higher terrain near the eastern border of
Alaska.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures in the Middle and Upper Yukon Valleys, the
Fortymile Country, and the Yukon Flats will fall from the 50s
today in most areas into the 40s Wednesday behind a front. Showers
will occur along the front as it shifts east but will likely drop
under a tenth of an inch of additional liquid-equivalent
precipitationin most Eastern Interior valleys. Highs will rise
back into the 50s by Friday with potential further warming early
next week. In the Western Interior, cooler conditions in the 40s
or upper 30s will prevail through the period with a cold airmass
focused over the area, although the dry air in place will permit
min RH values in the 40s and 50s. Minimum relative humidity values
in the 30s and 40s are likely across the Upper Tanana Valley and
Fortymile Country today and will expand to the Yukon Flats and
Middle Tanana Valley from Wednesday through Friday. Parts of the
Delta Junction to Tok areas could see RHs fall into the 20s.
Warmer and drier conditions will be possible early next week with
the chance for southerly downsloping across the Alaska Range.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
***NEW*** A Flood Warning has been issued at Eagle at 4:30PM AKDT
Tuesday May 5th. According to reports from Eagle, the ice has
stopped moving and water has begun to gradually rise. River water
has been observed on the road between the town and village. If
the ice jam continues to impound water, this may result in rapid
rises upstream.
Otherwise, as of 10 am the local breakup front had not yet
reached Calico Bluffs. Aerial observations on Monday found all
Yukon tributaries from the Canadian border to Coal Creek open and
creating small areas of open water where they entered the Yukon.
The ice in the same region was showing signs of weakening. A flood
watch was issued for the Upper Yukon region (Canadian border to
Coal Creek). Ice jams may form as the breakup front progresses
downriver and cause localized flooding. Downstream of Coal Creek
the ice appeared to be stronger (more white/blue ice) and more
remnant snow remained in the low lands. River Watch flights will
begin on Wednesday (weather permitting) and updates on breakup
progression will be provided as information becomes available.
If you live near or along the Yukon River monitor ice movement
and water levels; stay alert and be prepared to take action. Stay
tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
For online information, see http://www.weather.gov/aprfc
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Friday through Monday.
Cold air will still be present in Western Alaska with an amplified
trough in place over the area. Substantial moisture with a
shortwave trough/front from the North Pacific will push into the
Eastern Interior Saturday; this will allow for scattered to
numerous showers, mostly over the higher terrain, across much of
Northern Alaska moving into next week. Southerly flow on the east
side of the trough could lead to much warmer conditions by Sunday.
Troughing could begin to shift westward by late this weekend into
early next week, although there is high uncertainty on exactly
how this could play out due to model uncertainty. Regardless,
south flow is likely to persist, with temperatures potentially
nearing 60 in Interior valleys next week and continuing showers
across much of Northern Alaska, especially in the higher terrain.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ835.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&
$$
DS
513
FXAK67 PAJK 052359
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
359 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A front moves into the northeastern gulf, bringing light
rainfall to Yakutat and increasing the chance for rain for
parts of the northern and central panhandle through Tuesday
night and Wednesday.
- Drier weather for the southern panhandle continues, with drier
weather returning for the northern panhandle on Thursday.
- A stronger front arrives late Friday bringing widespread rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Ridging over the eastern gulf has begun to weaken
slightly, shifting more inland over the central and southern
panhandle. This is allowing bands of precipitation rotating around
an occluded low in Kodiak to reach the northeastern gulf coast of
SE AK. Light rain has reached Yakutat early this afternoon, and
will continue through the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday. The
chance to see light rain is expected to steadily spread inland,
giving the northern panhandle and parts of the outer gulf coast a
chance to see periods of light rainfall starting Tuesday night.
Any rainfall that makes it into the northern panhandle should
taper off through Wednesday night, with the rest of the band over
the northeastern gulf coast pulling back through Thursday morning.
The ridge is expected to keep this precipitation out of the
southern and central panhandle, though partly cloudy conditions
may take hold overnight and into Wednesday morning. Skies should
begin clearing out again over the southern panhandle Wednesday,
spreading north through Thursday morning. A more organized front
is forecast to move north through the southern gulf Friday, which
will start to move cloud cover back in overnight Thursday.
Gusty winds will continue into Wednesday, with the strongest
winds in northern Lynn Canal. The strongest gusts will last into
Tuesday night before slightly decreasing into Wednesday, staying
relatively elevated into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be
cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the high 40s for the northern
panhandle and reaching the mid 50s for the southern panhandle.
With skies in the southern panhandle clearing out Thursday, highs
should reach back up into the high 50s to low 60s. Lows on
Wednesday night look to drop into the high 30s for the northern
panhandle and the low 40s for the southern panhandle. Sea breezes
are still expected to develop through the peak of the day for
many coastal communities, but with cooler daytime temperatures,
wind speeds should remain light.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/... This weekend brings rain
for the entire panhandle beginning Friday afternoon or evening as
a low pressure system moves into the gulf. The rain is expected to
begin over POW Island and make its way northeast. There is high
confidence that the entire panhandle will have rain by Saturday
morning and continue so throughout the period. The heaviest
precipitation is expected along the coast and southern panhandle
and conditions are forecasted to stay relatively the same once the
precipitation begins.
Winds in Dixon Entrance are expected to pick up to around 25mph
through the beginning of the period and channel up Clarence
Strait and die off by Sunday afternoon. It is anticipated that
winds will pick up in the inner channels of the central panhandle
through the night Friday into Saturday as the rain moves in.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR vis and ceilings today with some areas of
MVFR ceilings (down to 2000 ft) along the entire outer coast from
increasing onshore flow that developed this afternoon. VFR
conditions expected to continue into this evening for the inner
channels through this evening with areas of MVFR conditions for
the outer coast. Later tonight into Wednesday, more areas in the
northern panhandle and outer coast will likely see ceilings
dipping into MVFR territory as chances of light rain increase.
Southern half of the panhandle (except for the western side of
Prince of Wales Island) should remain mostly VFR, but expect
increasing cloud cover. Gusty S winds to 35 kt at sea level has
developed around N Lynn Canal, Haines and Skagway this afternoon.
Gusts at sea level could still reach 40 kt at Skagway this evening
before winds start to diminish overnight. Some gusty winds may
redevelop Wednesday afternoon but they should not be as strong as
this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Southwesterly fresh to strong
breezes in the central gulf will begin to shift north and steadily
decrease through Wednesday morning. 10 to 12 ft wave heights will
quickly decrease following the winds, reaching a more uniform 7
to 8 ft through Wednesday morning and eventually 4 to 5 ft through
Thursday morning. 7 to 8 ft southwesterly swell at a 10 to 12
second period will steadily decrease to 2 ft at 8 to 10 seconds by
Wednesday night. Winds and waves will continue on the downward
trend through Thursday night before a swath of near gale force
winds surges northward with waves reaching 9-12 ft Friday into the
weekend as a low moves up from the South.
Inside (Inner Channels): Fresh south to southwesterly breezes
through the inner channels have increased through Tuesday, staying
elevated into the evening before starting to diminish into
Wednesday. Winds in northern Lynn Canal will be the strongest,
reaching sustained strong breezes and potentially seeing gale
force gusts before decreasing down to around 20 kts overnight.
These winds, along with parts of Cross Sound and Icy Strait near
Point Couverden, will stay elevated through Wednesday before
decreasing Thursday and turning out of the north. 2 to 3 ft wave
heights will persist in the channels experiencing the stronger
winds Tuesday into Wednesday, with Lynn Canal seeing 3 to 5 ft
seas and channel entrances seeing closer to 5 to 6 ft with the
peak wind speeds. Strong southerly winds are expected to return
Friday afternoon into Saturday as a front moves up from the south
and sweeps into the panhandle.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...ZTK
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