174
FXAK68 PAFC 240553
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
953 PM AKDT Wed Jul 23 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today to Friday)...
Today`s rain showers in the Copper Basin depart overnight, a
ridge builds into Southcentral ahead of another fast-moving low
arriving Friday morning.
Rain today in the Copper Basin will continue to taper off this
evening and end overnight. Many places received an additional
0.25" to 0.50" today; mostly over the Wrangell mountains. A
hydrologic outlook remains in place for the potential for small
streams to rise in response to this rainfall. It will be dry and
tomorrow in the Copper Basin as well as the rest of Southcentral
as a ridge builds. This ridge will move eastward overnight into
Friday as an upper level low progresses southeastward.
The aforementioned low will move into the Gulf of Alaska Friday
causing strong gap winds, gale warning strength in Shelikof
Strait, the Barren Islands and the Gulf of Alaska, as well as
widespread rain showers in Southcentral. Confidence is high
though that clearing skies prevail for the weekend as the low
quickly departs overnight into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...
Today`s story is much the same as yesterdays. The low that is
responsible for all of the activity in the Southwest mainland is
located somewhere around Chukotka. The front it is directing
through Southwest Alaska is triggering widespread rainfall. The
Bering is still under an ever-strengthening ridge. The ridge is
causing low stratus and fog to prevail. Friday will see the low
take a drop southwards. Widespread heavy rains will affect all of
the Southwest mainland starting with the Kuskokwim regions on
Thursday morning. Rainfall eventually encompasses the entire
Southwest mainland by Thursday evening into Friday morning.
Scattered rainfall will linger on through Friday evening until a
col builds in and dries everything out. Gap winds up to small
craft in Bristol Bay and west of Kodiak Island are expected as
cooler air and northwesterly flow sets up Friday through Saturday.
Meanwhile in the Bering, the ridge will continue to strengthen,
acting as a blockade for any rainfall. Low stratus and fog,
however, will be free to form, particularly at night.
On Saturday, the col region will still be in place in the
Southwest mainland. Skies will finally be allowed to clear,
meaning temperatures will warm and reach the lower 70s in most
areas. Weaker, thin waves will squeeze into the west coast of
Alaska, allowing for some rainfall and northwest breezy winds.
The Bering will continue to be under the influence of the ridge
with the same implications as mentioned earlier. Looking a bit
ahead reveals much of the same with the Bering ridge remaining in
place into next week and some more shortwaves pushing into the
Southwest mainland.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
The features to note for the long-term forecast will be a ridge
over the Bering Sea, and an upper level low diving southwards
across the state and into the Gulf of Alaska. With the ridge,
expect lingering fog and low stratus across the Bering Sea until
the ridge begins to exit into Southwest Alaska early next week.
Behind the ridge, expect windier and wetter conditions as a front
moves in. For Southern Alaska, expect several rounds of showers
as upper level shortwaves rotate around the low in the Gulf and
over the top of the ridge. With the Gulf low occluding, expect
synoptic winds to gradually diminish.
-KC
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
&&
$$
144
FXAK69 PAFG 232130
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
130 PM AKDT Wed Jul 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Wet and cool weather will continue across most of the Interior
into Friday. Heavier rain will occur in the eastern Alaska Range
...upper Tanana Valley...along the west coast and in the southwest
Interior. Scattered showers will occur elsewhere. Temperatures
will remain in the 50s and 60s with relatively light winds. Some
warming and drying occurs Friday into the weekend.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Heavy rainfall over the eastern Alaska Range and upper Tanana
Valley through tonight. Scattered showers will occur elsewhere.
- It will stay cooler with high temperatures generally in the
60s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Occasional rain will continue through Wednesday.
- Cool temperatures continue with highs in the 50s.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Onshore/northeasterly winds and areas of dense fog will continue
along the Arctic coast.
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Brooks Range
tonight and Thursday.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system over southern Chukchi Sea continues to
rotate moisture and short wave energy up over the Interior in a
southwest flow aloft. Widespread rain is spreading into the west
coast and western Interior. A strong short wave trough also
moved across the southern Interior last night and developed a
low over the southwest Canadian Yukon. This feature is causing
widespread rain over the eastern Alaska Range and the upper Tanana
valley. Scattered rain under cloudy skies will continue elsewhere
in the Interior and the Brooks Range. Thursday and Friday the
Bering Strait low will drop south to over the northern Gulf of
Alaska. That energy will trigger more rain across the Interior.
Onshore/northeasterly winds and areas of dense fog will continue
along the Arctic coast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A storm system over the Chukchi Sea continues to spread clouds and
rain over northern and central Alaska. Heavy rains are occurring over
the eastern Alaska Range...the upper Tanana Valley and across the
west coast. Scattered showers will continue elsewhere. Temperatures
will be in the 50s and 60s with humidities well above 40% in most
locations. Winds are generally light. Behind this storm system on
Friday the weather begins to clear out. Drier and warmer weather
will occur across most of the Interior and North Slope Friday and
Saturday. There will be some gusty northeast winds Friday and
Saturday across the Arctic Coast and Yukon Flats. Another low
pressure trough spreads more clouds and rain into the west coast
on Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
High pressure will develop behind the storm system impacting the
Interior this week. It will be warmer and drier over the central
and eastern Interior this weekend. Temperatures will warm back up
into the 70s. The exception will be the west coast where another
trough of low pressure moves into the Chuckchi Sea generating
more onshore flow...cooler temperatures and rain on Sunday. That
trough moves slowly across northern Alaska Monday and Tuesday
bringing more unsettled weather.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
&&
$$
814
FXAK67 PAJK 240538
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
938 PM AKDT Wed Jul 23 2025
.UPDATE...Updated aviation section for 6z tafs.
&&
SHORT TERM...
Chances of rain showers, alongside a resurgent cloud deck, are
the big stories across the panhandle. The extended period of drier
weather has come to an end, as a weak low in the northern gulf
steers onshore flow over the panhandle. Anticipate lingering
chances of PoPs through the remainder of the week as a result,
with the best chances slowly moving southward, following the
strongest onshore flow along the southern flank of the low as said
low meander to the SE. No significant QPF is expected from this
system, but cooler temperatures (highs in the low 60s for much of
the panhandle) are expected as a combination of less daytime
heating and cooler 850 mb temperatures aloft around ~5C put a cap
on warm weather across the area. A stronger low moves into the
Gulf on the weekend. For additional details, see the long term
forecast discussion.
LONG TERM...
Over Friday a system aloft will move off south-central AK,
allowing a sub- gale force low to stagnate in the Gulf over the
next few days. Expecting a pattern shift to southeast winds of 22
to 27 knots, with a low probability (less than 20% chance) of gale
force strength. The biggest threat for these winds are along our
coast and inner channels south of Frederick. We anticipate the
elevated easterly winds to envelope the northern coast Friday and
move down the Panhandle through the weekend, reaching Dixon
Entrance/Clarence Strait by Saturday night. We will see multiple
rounds of rain over the weekend, with the highest amounts south of
Frederick Sound. In general, 24-hour totals will remain below 2
inches.
AVIATION...
Coastal MVFR to IFR flight conditions continue this evening as an
upper level system pushes into the northern and central
panhandle. Anticipating general trend of MVFR to IFR flight
conditions to prevail across much of the coastal panhandle through
the night, with highest confidence of IFR to LIFR flight
conditions continuing around Yakutat through tonight. For the
southern and interior panhandle TAF sites, low-end VFR conditions
will deteriorate to MVFR through the night with CIGS AoB 3000ft,
with CIGS decreasing further by 12z region wide to AoB 2500ft.
Winds should remain around 10kts or less for the majority of the
panhandle through this evening. Winds have calmed down at Skagway
as of 9 pm and should stay mostly less then 15 kt through the next
24 hours. No significant LLWS concerns at this time.
MARINE...
Inside Waters: Cloud cover and less daytime heating associated
with a weak low pressure system impacting the panhandle will
decrease sea breeze potential through the foreseeable future.
Winds will remain around 15 kts or less with wave heights up to 3
ft across the inner channels as this system moves through, with
the exception being Lynn Canal, where winds will remain 20 kt
through the evening hours on Wednesday. Most N/S channels will see
southerly winds, barring Clarence Strait which will cling to NW
flow through much of Wednesday night before turning out of the
South. Fog along the outer coast going into Cross Sound and down
Icy Strait will persist through Wednesday evening.
Outside Waters: Sustained westerly strong breezes (22 to 27 kts)
from the gap flow in the western gulf continue to impact the outer
gulf waters, persisting through Wednesday night before decreasing
to fresh breezes. Winds off the coast will reach up to fresh
breezes (17 to 21 kts) with the current system and then drop to
gentle to moderate southwesterly breezes (7 to 16 kts) through
Thursday afternoon, and remain on the lower side until a system
arrives Friday into Saturday, resulting in winds ramping back up
from N to S. Gusts near 30 kts are possible in the gulf and Dixon
Entrance. Wave heights will be as high as 10 ft in the open gulf
waters from the western gap winds and around 4 to 6 ft through
Thursday before increasing Friday into Saturday up to 10 to 12
feet as the next system moves in. Currently, wave period is around
7 seconds with a W swell of 2 ft or less.
HYDROLOGY...
A flood advisory remains in effect for the Chilkat River through
Thursday evening. Diurnal Heating and cooling has seen the
Chilkat River rise into minor flood stage due to snow melt, and it
is likely to do so once more Thursday, before cooling
temperatures decrease snow melt enough that the river finally
drops out (and stays out) of minor flood stage.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ663-664.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS
HYDROLOGY...GFS
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