299
FXAK68 PAFC 150048
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...
A beautiful April day is underway across Southcentral Alaska as
upper-level ridging amplifies. Temperatures continue to warm in
many locations to near the warmest they`ve been all calendar year,
with many locations in the mid 40s as of this afternoon.
Starting tomorrow, a series of shortwave troughs amid southwest flow
aloft will begin moving atop the ridge and into Southcentral.
The first front and associated precipitation reaches Kodiak Island
tonight before then spreading across the Kenai Peninsula and the
rest of the area during the day on Wednesday. Lingering cold air
will keep most precipitation as snow during the morning hours, but
expect lingering precipitation, mainly in the Susitna Valley, to
mix with rain in the afternoon. The Copper Valley will also get
snow in the afternoon, so expect a quick drop in temperatures in
the afternoon for areas under snow showers. Amounts will be very
light with most locations outside of the mountains not expecting
more than a few hundredths to one tenth of an inch liquid
equivalent or trace to an inch of snow.
Precipitation looks to diminish Wednesday night as ridging builds in
wake of this system, but another front, tied to a more potent low
in the eastern Bering, shifts into Southcentral again on Thursday
and Thursday night. There remains some timing differences with
various model runs, but Kodiak Island looks to get the next wave
of precip sometime Thursday morning before the rest of
Southcentral gets it later into the day and into the overnight
period. Snow levels will be similar to the previous day`s system,
though perhaps a few hundred feet higher initially due to the
timing. Locations at elevation should remain most/all snow with
this next wave.
Precipitation will linger for the Prince William Sound region and
many of the mountain ranges across Southcentral Alaska as the
upper-level trough opens up and shifts east on Friday. Lower
elevations, Anchorage included, may receive light additional
precip. Snow accumulation with this late Thursday-Friday will be
highest across the Thompson Pass area, where 6+ inches may accrue.
Mentasta Pass, Isabel Pass, McCarthy Rd, and other higher
elevation areas will likely receive accumulating snow as well
before tapering off somewhat on Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3:)...
An elongated low pressure system covering much of the Bering Sea
is currently sending a front into the coast of Southwest Alaska.
Between 1 and 3 inches of snow is expected as precipitation moves
inland over the region through Wednesday. Additional shortwaves
will drift in behind the front, allowing for mixed precipitation
in the Bering and the Southwest Mainland through Friday morning.
Farther west, rain showers and elevated westerly winds will
persist for the Aleutian Chain. A strong North Pacific low looks
to rise into the western Aleutians late Friday morning. Strong
winds and moderate to heavy precipitation will spread over the
western and central Bering Sea through the day Friday before
deteriorating conditions for mainland Alaska through the weekend.
Models are trending toward the stronger solution in regards to
this system, so stay tuned as we track its progression into our
forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
An active pattern will persist from Friday through Monday as a
broad low-pressure system remains anchored over the Bering Sea. A
strong North Pacific storm moving into the region on Friday will
bring heavy rain and gale-force winds to the Western and Central
Aleutians, while moisture spreads across Southcentral Alaska,
maintaining cloudy skies and precipitation through Saturday.
By Sunday and into Monday, the system will pull cooler air back
into the region, likely turning precipitation into a rain-snow mix
for the Alaskan Peninsula and Southwest coast. While specific
timing remains a little uncertain, the overall pattern suggests
continued unsettled weather for both Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska with temperatures hovering near seasonal averages.
-DD
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Clouds above
5000 ft roll back in by the morning. Light snow showers will be
possible late morning through early afternoon with dips in
ceilings to MVFR.
&&
$$
221
FXAK69 PAFG 150944
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally showery weather is likely across Northern Alaska through
late this week, with multiple rounds of precipitation moving
inland from over the Bering Sea. On the West Coast and in higher
elevation areas, most precipitation will remain snow due to colder
temperatures, but in the Interior valleys, rain will be possible
with any daytime showers with high temperatures in the 30s. Gusty
northerly or northeasterly winds will be possible through the next
few days on the Chukchi Sea and Bering Sea coasts and in the
Brooks Range. There is potential for a weekend system which could
bring more widespread precipitation to the area, although there is
uncertainty on how much moisture it could bring and how warm it
will be.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cooler temperatures remain through the end of the week with
highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for most areas.
- Scattered snow showers linger across the Central Interior and
higher elevations across the Eastern Interior this morning.
Accumulations will be very light.
- Another round of rain/snow showers across the Interior begins by
this afternoon. Rain will be predominant in the warmer valleys
with snow predominant overnight and at higher elevations.
Snowfall totals generally light with 1 to 3 inches possible.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through at least
Thursday with the strongest winds from the Bering Strait to St.
Lawrence Island. Expected gusts 25 to 35 mph.
- Light rain, snow, and mixed precipitation will be possible
through the end of the week. Precipitation will be most
consistent for areas south of the Bering Strait along the West
Coast and south of Huslia across the Western Interior. Mostly
rain/snow mix is expected today and Thursday during the daytimes.
- Temperatures remain cool throughout the week with highs in the
20s and overnight lows in the teens to single digits above zero.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Scattered snow showers linger across the Brooks Range today and
become more isolated thereafter.
- Periods of gusty winds on the northwest Arctic Coast continue
through the end of the week. Gusts as high as 45 mph are
possible between Point Hope and Point Lay. Periods of blowing
snow may reduce visibility and make travel difficult. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued.
- Cold temperatures continue through the end of the week with
highs in the single digits above zero while overnight lows
reach as cold as the teens below zero.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
General ridging is in place over the Gulf of Alaska, with cold
troughing over the High Arctic. This is lending to general
westerly flow across Alaska, with a fairly progressive flow
pattern supporting multiple lows and rounds of precipitation
moving into the area out of the Bering Sea. Some gusty northerly /
northeasterly winds on the western Arctic Coast are allowing for
blowing snow in spots. A shortwave trough over Interior Alaska is
helping to produce some light snow showers early this morning and
will gradually move eastward and into Canada through the day.
Reinforcing shortwaves moving out of the southeastern Bering Sea
(coupled with some weak surface troughing) will produce further
snowfall in the YK Delta and Lower Yukon Valley this morning
before spreading it northeastward into the Central and Eastern
Interior by this evening. Precipitation is likely to be scarcer
in the Middle Tanana Valley/Fairbanks area, with higher amounts in
the Lower Tanana Valley, the White Mountains, along the Dalton
Highway, and the Fortymile Country. Highs in the southern half of
the Interior the next few days will be in the mid to upper 30s,
with upper 20s and low 30s in the northern portions. This will
allow for periods of rain with any shower activity during the
daytime in these areas. Highs will be generally near or below
freezing on the West Coast and in the low single digits on the
North Slope, so any precipitation will likely remain snow there.
General showery weather will continue through the week and into
the weekend as a more amplified trough moves into southwestern
Alaska Thursday. This will coincide with troughing over the Arctic
dipping southward into the North Slope, with northerly or
northeasterly winds increasing across the Chukchi/Bering Sea
coasts and Western Brooks Range.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Saturday through Tuesday
To start out the extended time frame, showery conditions will be
occurring across much of Northern Alaska, with some snowfall just
starting to shift north into the southern North Slope. A stronger
low over the southern Bering Sea will be moving toward
southwestern Alaska on Saturday morning; by Saturday afternoon,
most model guidance supports its leading front moving onshore,
bringing easterly winds to the Bering Sea coast. It will also
bring potentially widespread precipitation, with the chance for a
few inches of snow in the Western Interior through the weekend,
with higher totals in the higher terrain. Much of the Alaska Range
and the southern slopes of the Central Brooks Range could see
several inches of snow as well. In valley locations, snow totals
could be reduced by daytime changeover to rain during warmer
temperatures. After the system moves inland, northerly flow on
its west side early next week will allow for colder air to move
south across Western Alaska, although the Central/Eastern Interior
could also see highs fall to a lesser extent.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-817-851-854-856-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
&&
$$
DS
924
FXAK67 PAJK 150531
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
931 PM AKDT Tue Apr 14 2026
.UPDATE...Update to the discussion to include the 06z TAFs.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 352 PM AKDT Tue Apr 14...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Clear skies through Wednesday morning before clouds begin to
move in preceding more precipitation Wednesday night into
Thursday
- Another front reaches the northern panhandle Thursday night,
continuing precipitation through Friday and into the weekend
SHORT TERM...Drier weather has spread across SE AK as a low dips
south of the panhandle, bringing the arrival of spring in full
force across the area. Clear skies will allow for warmer daytime
high temperatures, with colder nighttime lows and patchy fog
development through the early morning hours for parts of the
southern and central panhandle. The primary changes made to the
forecast were increases in northerly flow for the inner channels,
alongside some upward adjustments to high temperatures for
Wednesday. The ridge building over SE AK will keep precipitation
at bay through most of Wednesday, with cloud cover steadily
increasing through Wednesday evening as a shortwave manages to
move over the ridge axis and into the panhandle. This shortwave
will increase precipitation chances across the northern outer
coast and eventually spread into the rest of the panhandle, though
precipitation is expected to remain light and mostly rain. See
the long term discussion for more information.
LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...Minimal changes have
been made to the long term forecast, with increased confidence in
a shortwave trough bringing light precipitation to the northern
panhandle Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This organized
band of precipitation will move into the northern outer coast
overnight and spread southeast through the early morning.
Overnight temperatures are still expected to get cold enough for
parts of the northern panhandle, mainly Yakutat and the northern
highways at higher elevations, to see snow or a rain/snow mix with
the initial band of precipitation into Thursday morning. These
temperatures will increase to above freezing through daytime
hours, which will limit any snowfall from accumulating through
Thursday. Onshore flow will push showers over the panhandle after
the band moves over, continuing on and off precipitation until
late Thursday night when a more organized frontal band reaches the
northern outer coast and pushes inland overnight. This front is
expected to mainly impact the northern and central panhandle
through early Friday morning, but moist onshore flow will continue
precipitation through the rest of the panhandle during this
period. Higher resolution models are showing a chance for parts of
the southern and central panhandle to see some breaks in weather
during this showery period on Friday, but many of the medium-range
models depict more consistent moisture lingering over the entire
panhandle. Temperatures should stay warm enough to keep
precipitation as rain into the weekend, though rainfall rates will
remain on the lighter side. The only real wind issue is expected
near the typical hot spots from Thursday into Friday as the front
moves inland, with Lynn Canal, southern Stephens Passage near Five
Finger Lighthouse, and around Point Couverden potentially seeing
small craft advisories through this period.
Active weather is expected to persist over the northern
panhandle, especially the northern outer coast around Yakutat,
through Saturday morning before another low pressure system jumps
up into the southern gulf which will bring consistent
precipitation back to the rest of the panhandle. This is expected
to continue through Saturday before another front moves in along
the northern gulf coast, forcing the lingering precipitation to
shift southeast out of the panhandle. Uncertainty still remains on
the position of the low center and how strong this upcoming front
will be, which will impact the timing of the previous system
moving out and the next front moving in. The EC is thinking this
front will move in through SUnday morning and blanket the entire
panhandle, while the GFS is hanging back with the front moving in
Sunday night and only reaching parts of the northern panhandle.
Due to the northern location of this low, precipitation has the
possibility of falling as snow overnight for northern locations
such as Yakutat and the northern highways. Updates to the timing
of this late weekend system will be made as the period gets
closer.
AVIATION...Showers continue to move out of the area this evening
as the low that was producing showers dives to the south. With
this, VFR conditions are left behind with clearing skies with the
exception of a band of clouds over the southern panhandle. One
concern with the clearing skies is the potential development of
fog during the overnight hours this evening as temperatures cool.
This will need to be monitored closely as some places are
borderline for fog development. But this fog could also frost out
with the dropping temperatures. Heading into tomorrow, clear
conditions are expected through the morning before clouds from the
next approaching system move across the Gulf to the NE Gulf coast
and Baranof island area. With these clouds, MVFR conditions could
be possible along the outer coast as well as some potential for
light precipitation for the latter half of the TAFs.
MARINE...
Outer Coastal Waters: Westerly fresh to strong breezes continue
across the outer coastal waters on Tuesday. Wave heights of 5 to 6
ft in the northern gulf and to 7 to 8 ft in the southern gulf
will steadily decrease through Wednesday to around 4 and 6 ft,
respectively. Winds will begin to turn more southeasterly as a
system approaches through the northern gulf Wednesday night into
Thursday.
Inner Channels: Northerly winds have strengthened above what was
previously anticipated, bringing N/S oriented channels up to a
fresh to strong breeze (20-25 kt) through Tuesday. Winds are
expected to diminish through Tuesday evening before flipping out
of the south Wednesday morning and remaining light.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>663.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GFS/ZTK
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS/ZTK
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