[top]
000
FXUS63 KLBF 082053
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SWWD
INTO SWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH 50S AND 60S BEHIND THE FEATURE. DEW POINTS RANGED
FROM THE MID 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE LOWER 30S BEHIND THE
FRONT IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ALOFT...LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CONUS WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM IDAHO INTO UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER NERN
FLORIDA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO. ABUNDANT
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SRN ROCKIES PER WV IMAGERY.
.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
ARE THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES THROUGH THURSDAY. ELIMINATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE BEFORE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT. TIME SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY...CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ABOVE
12000 FEET BUT A DRY LAYER BENEATH. GAVE LOWS A SLIGHT BOOST
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED OVERCAST SKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NRN
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR...COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL LEAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN CONTRAST TO THE 50S AND
60S TDY. EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FACILITATE COOLER
TEMPS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME TRICKY AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS INDICATE A ZONAL PATTERN AND ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TUESDAY...AM
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
60 DEGREE MARK. SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS
MONDAYS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH
MEAGER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...ARRIVING
ACROSS THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE AN ISSUE
FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR FOR THE AVIATION DESK.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A FAST ZONAL PATTERN PUSHES ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WAS CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS
BOTH DAYS AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RUN TO RUN MODEL CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE POOR FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME CONTINUES. FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT WITH THE 00Z GFS RUN
ADVERTISING AN OPEN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z EURO
ECHOES THIS TO A LESSER DEGREE. HAVE FAVORED A MORE OPEN PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND...IN LINE WITH NAT`L GUIDANCE...WHICH
FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS FROM
LAST NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLES...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW AND THE LATEST 12Z GFS SOLN DOES LITTLE TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE PER SE WITH A LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES WAS
TO STICK TO NATL GUIDANCE BEYOND FRIDAY AND FAVOR A MORE OPEN
PATTERN...AND THAT IS WHAT WE PLAN TO DO HERE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AOA 10000 FT AGL. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET...WITH A SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
$$
BUTTLER
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000
FXUS63 KGID 082034
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
234 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE ARE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER TOWARDS 06Z AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THAT REGION.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE H85 BOUNDARY LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
THE H85 BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE ALSO INCREASES
IN THAT AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FAR SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY IN THE AREA OF BETTER ISENTROPIC
LIFT. DEBATED LIGHT RAIN VERSUS SHOWERS FOR MONDAY...AND OPTED FOR
SHOWERS SINCE MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG ARE SHOWN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER TO SOME DEGREE IN HOW QUICKLY THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM
IN MOVING THE LIFT SOUTH..AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...SUNRISE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERN IN THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP ON TUESDAY. WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...BELIEVE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS AROUND 51
DEGREES AT GRAND ISLAND. THE WEAK AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BIGGER QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM AND TODAY`S RUNS DO NOT SHED A WHOLE LOT OF LIGHT ON THE
SITUATION. FOR EXAMPLE...THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS DUG
THE SYSTEM DOWN THE WEST COAST AND HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER LAS VEGAS
BY 12Z SAT. THE LATEST RUN PLACES THE LOW BETWEEN DENVER AND
CHEYENNE AT THAT TIME WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 600 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE 0Z RUN OF THE EC HAD A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND THEN
BOMBED THE LOW INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY NEXT SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING IT TO CNK BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW THE 12Z EC RUN COMPARES WHEN IT ARRIVES. ALSO EXAMINED THE
GFS ENSEMBLE AND MOST OF THE MEMBERS PREFER A SLOWER TRACK AS
COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. THUS THE PLAN FOR NOW WILL BE
TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
UPPER TROUGH BASICALLY FROM WESTERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN UTAH BY SAT
EVENING AND THEN PROGRESS IT EASTWARD AND THROUGH OUR CWA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING
ON SATURDAY AND WILL NOT STRAY FROM THAT THINKING AT THIS TIME DUE
TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL TRACK OF SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR KGRI. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS63 KOAX 082015
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
215 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. 12Z MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. MAIN PRECIP FOCUS REMAINS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
ELSEWHERE. MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FOLLOWED BY SW TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD IN REGARDS TO 500 MB PATTERN. THEY SHOWED A SYSTEM
IN THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE
00Z CANADIAN GEM MODEL WAS FASTER WITH WEST COAST TROUGH AND
APPEARED TO BE TOO FAST. THE CANADIAN MODEL ALSO BROUGHT A CLOSED
LOW OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY. FOR
THOSE REASONS...DID NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THE 00Z CANADIAN
MODEL.
12Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPED A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DID NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND (DAYS 6 AND 7) IS BELOW AVERAGE...DUE TO
FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DEPICTED LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND FRONTAL
POSITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
12Z ECMWF DID NOT ADD MUCH CONFIDENCE TO DAYS 6 AND 7. GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS PROBABLY THE BEST AT THIS POINT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DECIDED TO
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD GENERATE SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
08/18Z TAFS
MAIN ISSUE THIS FCST CYCLE IS TIMING WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FROPA. AT 08/20Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY WAS FROM ABOUT NW
IA TO NW KS. LATEST KOFK OBS INDICATED WIND DIRECTION ALREADY OUT
OF THE NW. AS FOR KOMA/KLNK...EXPECT SWING TO NW AT KOMA SOMETIME
TWD 08/21Z AND 08/23Z AT KLNK. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CROSS WIND ACTIVITY...25KT OR GREATER... NOR LLWS WITH
FROPA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER/DEE
000
FXUS63 KGID 081722
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1122 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR KGRI. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES
WHILE A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
KEEP A FRONT STALLED FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALTHOUGH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POTENT 120KT
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THE BETTER
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING FROM THE DIRECT CIRCULATION IS
SHOWN TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE DAKOTAS...HENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF CIRRUS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET AXIS TO STREAM OFF THE
FRONT RANGE REGION OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY INHIBIT
HEATING SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL
STAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BASED ON
THIS SCENARIO WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NEAR ORD...TO THE
MID 70S AROUND BELOIT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...THE
STRONGEST JET WINDS ACTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
WHICH LEAVES ONLY A WEAK DIRECT CIRCULATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY THIS POINT. WITH ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING
FROM THIS FORCING IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
MORE THAN A SPRINKLE NORTH OF A YORK TO PHILLIPSBURG LINE.
HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IS SHOWN TO BRING SOME WEAK
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES IN THE 100-400 J/KG. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE SAME LINE MENTIONED ABOVE STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER AROUND AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL OR SPRINKLES AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN VALUES SEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MODEST SUBSIDENCE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
ANY SIGN OF LIGHT RAINFALL TO SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FA BY
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A MILD AND DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 081146
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. CHANGING WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF KGRI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY STALLING FOR A BRIEF
TIME TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE BEING
PUSHED BACK SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY...FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME
MORE STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE KGRI AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES
WHILE A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
KEEP A FRONT STALLED FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALTHOUGH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POTENT 120KT
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THE BETTER
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING FROM THE DIRECT CIRCULATION IS
SHOWN TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE DAKOTAS...HENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF CIRRUS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET AXIS TO STREAM OFF THE
FRONT RANGE REGION OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY INHIBIT
HEATING SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL
STAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BASED ON
THIS SCENARIO WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NEAR ORD...TO THE
MID 70S AROUND BELOIT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...THE
STRONGEST JET WINDS ACTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
WHICH LEAVES ONLY A WEAK DIRECT CIRCULATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY THIS POINT. WITH ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING
FROM THIS FORCING IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
MORE THAN A SPRINKLE NORTH OF A YORK TO PHILLIPSBURG LINE.
HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IS SHOWN TO BRING SOME WEAK
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES IN THE 100-400 J/KG. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE SAME LINE MENTIONED ABOVE STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER AROUND AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL OR SPRINKLES AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN VALUES SEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MODEST SUBSIDENCE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
ANY SIGN OF LIGHT RAINFALL TO SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FA BY
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A MILD AND DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLBF 081000
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH A
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. INVERTED TROF ALIGNED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL HAVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW//CLOSE TO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. JET STREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO CREATE
SOME LIFT OVER S DAKOTA AND PRODUCE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR.
BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY DRY AND HAVE SEEN FEW REPORTS OF ANYTHING
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TODAY...SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. GOOD SURF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN TO THE EAST...AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE AS H2O IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SEE PACIFIC FEED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TO RIDE OVER THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. 00Z GFS/NAM HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLE
WITH UPPER LEVEL STRENGTH OF THE JET...HOWEVER ECMWF CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF OVER SW NEB. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN AGREEMENT BY
ALL MODELS...SO EXPECT IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPS ANOTHER PROBLEM TODAY AND TONIGHT. TRACK OF LOW WITH WARMER
AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY PUSH SW INTO N CENTRAL TEMPS ABOVE GOING
FORECAST. GUIDANCE JUMPED OVER 5 DEGREES FROM LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...HOWEVER THINK CIRRUS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING
YESTERDAY READINGS. CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TO FAR.
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TOMORROW AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AS HIGH SLIDES OVER
THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE RETURN OF
LL MOISTURE. MAY SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP...WHICH IS COMMON THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AS MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD. THIS MAY CAUSE TEMPS
TO BE BELOW CURRENT FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH KVTN AND KLBF BTWN 15Z AND 18Z. CURRENT BKN200 TO
PERSIST TIL 21Z...THEREAFTER BECMG SCT200. NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO 12G18KTS FROM 19Z-23Z...THEN DIMINISHING AOB 10KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
000
FXUS63 KGID 080958
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES
WHILE A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
KEEP A FRONT STALLED FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. ALTHOUGH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POTENT 120KT
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THE BETTER
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING FROM THE DIRECT CIRCULATION IS
SHOWN TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE DAKOTAS...HENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF CIRRUS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET AXIS TO STREAM OFF THE
FRONT RANGE REGION OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY INHIBIT
HEATING SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL
STAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BASED ON
THIS SCENARIO WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NEAR ORD...TO THE
MID 70S AROUND BELOIT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...THE
STRONGEST JET WINDS ACTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
WHICH LEAVES ONLY A WEAK DIRECT CIRCULATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY THIS POINT. WITH ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING
FROM THIS FORCING IT APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
MORE THAN A SPRINKLE NORTH OF A YORK TO PHILLIPSBURG LINE.
HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IS SHOWN TO BRING SOME WEAK
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPES IN THE 100-400 J/KG. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE SAME LINE MENTIONED ABOVE STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER AROUND AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL OR SPRINKLES AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN VALUES SEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MODEST SUBSIDENCE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
ANY SIGN OF LIGHT RAINFALL TO SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FA BY
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A MILD AND DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
&&
.AVIATION...06 KGRI TAF. RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND WILL
EVENTUALLY BACK TO A MORE NORTH DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS. WITH AN UPSLOPE LIGHT EAST FLOW...THIS
COULD HELP PROMOTE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE AREA...BUT WITH
SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...I OPTED TO KEEP
VISIBILITY AT VFR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KOAX 080930
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A FRONT WHICH HAD STALLED NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TODAY TOWARD THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT.
MEANWHILE...AN ADVANCING TROUGH OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MERGE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. IT SHOULD STILL BE DRY TODAY...AND MOST LIKELY
EVEN TONIGHT...AS WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR A BIT STRONGER LIFT AND
DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA...THAT ARE TIED INTO
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THESE SHOULD NOT AFFECT
OUR CWFA TODAY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE ARE..ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE READINGS AGAIN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE LOWER 60S.
LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT AS THE SREF WAS STILL
INDICATING AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWFA...BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN COMES MONDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
THEREAFTER...WITH A RETURN FLOW SLOWLY SETTING UP THROUGH MID WEEK...
AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
MID 60S BY THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT PROGGED INTO
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL TRENDS KEEP PUSHING THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS FRONT BACK. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
COULD OCCUR THURSDAY IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAY COME FRIDAY AS HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK IS IN QUESTION...LEADING TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
08/06Z TAFS
THE SFC FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KSTJ AND NORTH OF
KCNK IN KANSAS. DURING THE DAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASE...THIS SFC FNT LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE KLNK AND KOMA TAF
SITES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT LOW CLDS AND FOG AS THERE
ARE LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WRMFNT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR...HOWEVER ONLY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 12 TO
18KT RANGE...DECREASING UNDER 10KTS AFT 23Z. THE WINDS AT KOMA AND
KLNK WILL BEGIN TO SWING FM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AS THE FNT SAGS SOUTH AFTER 00Z. KANSAS VWPS ARE ALREADY 45 TO
50KTS AND MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AS H9
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-45KT FROM 220DEG. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A FEW HRS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE VFR CLDS AROUND 5K FT DEVELOP.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEWALD/ZAPOTOCNY
000
FXUS63 KGID 080458
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1058 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...06 KGRI TAF. RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND WILL
EVENTUALLY BACK TO A MORE NORTH DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS. WITH AN UPSLOPE LIGHT EAST FLOW...THIS
COULD HELP PROMOTE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE AREA...BUT WITH
SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...I OPTED TO KEEP
VISIBILITY AT VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...GENERALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MAY BE SOME
SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGHT TO ADD ANOTHER FM
GROUP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
THICKNESS WITH TIME. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS.
WITH AN UPSLOPE LIGHT EAST FLOW...THIS COULD HELP PROMOTE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...I OPTED TO KEEP VISIBILITY AT VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...WIND PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAIN JET AXIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 100+ KT 300 MB JET OVER NDAK. PROFILER CONFIRM
WITH 80KT FROM NW NEB TO SOUTHERN MN...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH WINDS
DROP OFF TO 30 KT OVER KS. AT THE SURFACE...MSAS DATA AND CURRENT
OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN NEB WITH FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. DRIER AIR AT
SURFACE...DEWPOINT WAS 28 AT KGRI AT 18Z...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S DESPITE THE NORTHEAST FLOW. DRY AIR MASS
EXTENDS UPWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY RUNNING AROUND A HALF AN
INCH AT PRESENT. WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING BUT HAVE DECREASED A BIT IN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRST QUESTION IS WILL WE GET ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHALLOW AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH POOLS
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. DEPTH IS LIMITED
BUT WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW COULD GET A BIT OF PATCHY TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO INSERT FOG WORDING INTO
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE DRY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
BETTER WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO COME LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWA. TIME HEIGHT FORECAST PLOTS SHOULD GOOD
OMEGA VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS AROUND NOON MONDAY ON THE NAM
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT QUITE SO ROBUST. NAM ALSO LACKING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING DOWN ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. GFS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...NOT AS GOOD WITH THE FORCING. AT THIS
POINT PLAN TO LEAVE ONGOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. A QUIET START IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. THAT BEING
SAID...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO STILL SHOW THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ALSO PUT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
000
FXUS63 KGID 080258 AAA
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
857 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MAY BE SOME
SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGHT TO ADD ANOTHER FM
GROUP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
THICKNESS WITH TIME. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS.
WITH AN UPSLOPE LIGHT EAST FLOW...THIS COULD HELP PROMOTE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...I OPTED TO KEEP VISIBILITY AT VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...WIND PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAIN JET AXIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 100+ KT 300 MB JET OVER NDAK. PROFILER CONFIRM
WITH 80KT FROM NW NEB TO SOUTHERN MN...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH WINDS
DROP OFF TO 30 KT OVER KS. AT THE SURFACE...MSAS DATA AND CURRENT
OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN NEB WITH FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. DRIER AIR AT
SURFACE...DEWPOINT WAS 28 AT KGRI AT 18Z...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S DESPITE THE NORTHEAST FLOW. DRY AIR MASS
EXTENDS UPWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY RUNNING AROUND A HALF AN
INCH AT PRESENT. WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING BUT HAVE DECREASED A BIT IN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRST QUESTION IS WILL WE GET ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHALLOW AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH POOLS
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. DEPTH IS LIMITED
BUT WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW COULD GET A BIT OF PATCHY TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO INSERT FOG WORDING INTO
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE DRY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
BETTER WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO COME LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWA. TIME HEIGHT FORECAST PLOTS SHOULD GOOD
OMEGA VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS AROUND NOON MONDAY ON THE NAM
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT QUITE SO ROBUST. NAM ALSO LACKING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING DOWN ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. GFS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...NOT AS GOOD WITH THE FORCING. AT THIS
POINT PLAN TO LEAVE ONGOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. A QUIET START IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. THAT BEING
SAID...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO STILL SHOW THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ALSO PUT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH.
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THOUGHT PROCESS FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION ISSUANCE OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
HEINLEIN
000
FXUS63 KOAX 080045
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
645 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...TRIMMED MOST LOWS BACK INTO UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S...SPCLY GIVEN HOW COOL IT GOT THIS MORNING. CI THICKENING IN
CNTRL NEBR MAY LIMIT TEMP DROP IN NERN NEBR IF TRENDS WOULD
CONT...BUT WITH DWPTS THERE IN THE UPR 20S AND SOME 00Z TEMPS
ALREADY AROUND 50...DECIDED TO NOT TO COUNT ON THAT HAPPENING.
CHERMOK
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
08/00Z TAFS
EXPANDED FOG MENTION FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE TO MENTION VSBYS
DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE FOR A WHILE AROUND AND AFTER SUNRISE AT KOMA
AS WINDS TURN TO LIGHT SE LATE COULD ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
AIR. MENTIONED MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KLNK AND KOFK ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS LESS CERTAIN AT KOFK GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS IN UPR 20S. DID
NOT MENTION CIGS WITH THE FOG IN TAF FCSTS JUST YET EVEN THOUGH
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED SUCH...CHCS APPEARED TOO LOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP CONTINUES
ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB
FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ONE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER AFFECTS THE WEST COAST. 12Z GFS WAS A
LITTLE FASTER AND 00Z ECMWF WITH TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE RESULT WAS THAT THE 12Z GFS
IS ALSO FASTER WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FRONTAL TIMING...WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
12Z ECMWF IS NOW EVEN FASTER THAN 12Z GFS WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK. FOR NOW...FELT THAT TIMING (FROM 12Z ECMWF) WAS TOO FAST.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
07/18Z TAFS
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU FCST PD. APPEARS TO BE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT HUGGING AREAS ALONG THE MO
RIVER VLY TWD 08/10Z...MAINLY AFFECTING KOMA. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO
ANY DEVELOPMENT AT KOFK/KLNK...THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER/DEE
000
FXUS63 KGID 072320
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
520 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
THICKNESS WITH TIME. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS.
WITH AN UPSLOPE LIGHT EAST FLOW...THIS COULD HELP PROMOTE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...I OPTED TO KEEP VISIBILITY AT VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...WIND PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAIN JET AXIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 100+ KT 300 MB JET OVER NDAK. PROFILER CONFIRM
WITH 80KT FROM NW NEB TO SOUTHERN MN...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH WINDS
DROP OFF TO 30 KT OVER KS. AT THE SURFACE...MSAS DATA AND CURRENT
OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN NEB WITH FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. DRIER AIR AT
SURFACE...DEWPOINT WAS 28 AT KGRI AT 18Z...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S DESPITE THE NORTHEAST FLOW. DRY AIR MASS
EXTENDS UPWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY RUNNING AROUND A HALF AN
INCH AT PRESENT. WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING BUT HAVE DECREASED A BIT IN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRST QUESTION IS WILL WE GET ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHALLOW AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH POOLS
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. DEPTH IS LIMITED
BUT WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW COULD GET A BIT OF PATCHY TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO INSERT FOG WORDING INTO
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE DRY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
BETTER WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO COME LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWA. TIME HEIGHT FORECAST PLOTS SHOULD GOOD
OMEGA VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS AROUND NOON MONDAY ON THE NAM
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT QUITE SO ROBUST. NAM ALSO LACKING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING DOWN ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. GFS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...NOT AS GOOD WITH THE FORCING. AT THIS
POINT PLAN TO LEAVE ONGOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. A QUIET START IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. THAT BEING
SAID...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO STILL SHOW THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ALSO PUT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH.
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THOUGHT PROCESS FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION ISSUANCE OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
000
FXUS63 KLBF 072053
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SWRN KS INTO NERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WERE IN THE
70S...WHILE 60S WERE COMMON NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES
ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY OVER NERN
AND SWRN KS...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT. STALLING ACROSS SWRN
NEBRASKA TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXISTS IN ERN AND CENTRAL KS PER SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTS PROGRESSION NWD TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS AS STRATUS
FORMATION LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. ALSO...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HAVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...EVEN IN LIGHT OF ONLY MEAGER DYNAMICS. THE NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET WILL SLIDE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE SRN BRANCH WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER KS/SRN NEBRASKA. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT WILL FOCUS POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. WILL GO WITH ONLY 20 POPS AT THIS
JUNCTURE...GIVEN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND WEAK DYNAMICS.
ON MONDAY...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...FORCING THE FRONT INTO THE OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS. ONGOING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. BY MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...ALLOWING SRLY FLOW TO INCREASE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS FORMATION TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IN THE
OUTER PERIODS. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONTINUITY DOWNRIGHT BAD THIS
MORNING. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS YESTERDAY FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...IS NOW
ABSENT FROM THIS MORNING`S MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
SOLN NOW LIFT AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO SOLN IS
FRONTAL TIMING MIDWEEK AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE SLOWER EURO SOLN...IN LINE WITH NATL GUIDANCE...WHICH
FAVORS A SLOWER FROPA INTO LATE THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED
FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATING
A DRY FROPA THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE OPEN TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH LOWEST LEVEL WIND SWINGING AROUND TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG/MIST AND/OR STRATUS TONIGHT.
STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM SHORT RANGE SIMULATIONS SHOWS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARGINAL CEILINGS IN THE PLATTE VALLEY EAST OF LBF. SINCE
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GUIDANCE...WE WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE LBF TAF FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING. OUTSIDE OF THE PLATTE VALLEY...UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
$$
.PUBLIC...BUTTLER
.AVIATION...SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KGID 072029
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
229 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. MAIN FOCUS IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...WIND PROFILER DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES. MAIN JET AXIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 100+ KT 300 MB JET OVER NDAK. PROFILER CONFIRM
WITH 80KT FROM NW NEB TO SOUTHERN MN...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH WINDS
DROP OFF TO 30 KT OVER KS. AT THE SURFACE...MSAS DATA AND CURRENT
OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN NEB WITH FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. DRIER AIR AT
SURFACE...DEWPOINT WAS 28 AT KGRI AT 18Z...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S DESPITE THE NORTHEAST FLOW. DRY AIR MASS
EXTENDS UPWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY RUNNING AROUND A HALF AN
INCH AT PRESENT. WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING BUT HAVE DECREASED A BIT IN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRST QUESTION IS WILL WE GET ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHALLOW AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH POOLS
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. DEPTH IS LIMITED
BUT WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW COULD GET A BIT OF PATCHY TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO INSERT FOG WORDING INTO
FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE DRY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
BETTER WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO COME LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWA. TIME HEIGHT FORECAST PLOTS SHOULD GOOD
OMEGA VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS AROUND NOON MONDAY ON THE NAM
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS NOT QUITE SO ROBUST. NAM ALSO LACKING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO MAY HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING DOWN ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. GFS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH THE
MOISTURE BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...NOT AS GOOD WITH THE FORCING. AT THIS
POINT PLAN TO LEAVE ONGOING FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. A QUIET START IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW THEN BECOME MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. THAT BEING
SAID...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO STILL SHOW THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ALSO PUT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THOUGHT PROCESS FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION ISSUANCE OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KOAX 072015
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
215 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP CONTINUES
ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB
FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ONE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER AFFECTS THE WEST COAST. 12Z GFS WAS A
LITTLE FASTER AND 00Z ECMWF WITH TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE RESULT WAS THAT THE 12Z GFS
IS ALSO FASTER WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FRONTAL TIMING...WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
12Z ECMWF IS NOW EVEN FASTER THAN 12Z GFS WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEK. FOR NOW...FELT THAT TIMING (FROM 12Z ECMWF) WAS TOO FAST.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
07/18Z TAFS
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU FCST PD. APPEARS TO BE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT HUGGING AREAS ALONG THE MO
RIVER VLY TWD 08/10Z...MAINLY AFFECTING KOMA. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO
ANY DEVELOPMENT AT KOFK/KLNK...THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER/DEE
000
FXUS63 KGID 071722
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1122 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THOUGHT PROCESS FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION ISSUANCE OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE INVOLVES A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING AND IS SHOWN TO STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM
THIS FROPA AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING WILL STAY CLOSER TO A 120KT
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE LOWER 10 KFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE...WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TRANSITION DAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A BROAD
BUT FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE FRONT STALLED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BETTER UPPER FORCING WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY.
NONETHELESS...DECENT CROSS COMPONENT FLOW TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL ALLOW A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET
AXIS. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM BUT
SHOULD STAY THE MOST OPAQUE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALREADY IN EXISTENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE CIRRUS REINFORCING THIS
GRADIENT...WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR ORD...TO THE MID
70S NEAR BELOIT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL DIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION
ON THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS PRODUCING AN ENHANCED BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB LAYER. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE IT
APPEARS THIS FORCING WILL ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITIC
LAYER AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TRICKY BUT WILL START WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE TOO WARM.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MODEST SUBSIDENCE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW ANY SIGN OF LIGHT
RAINFALL TO SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FA BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD AND DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
EWALD
000
FXUS63 KGID 071150
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER THIS MORNING
IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
INITIALLY TO EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BY MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST. ONLY
EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL BECOME A LITTLE
THICKER THIS EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TRY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS LOW-LEVEL RH INCREASES NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOS
GUIDANCE ISN/T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CIGS OR REDUCED
VSBYS...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE SOME FOG
POTENTIAL. WILL INTRODUCE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AND SOME MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS AT THIS POINT...AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CLOUD/FOG POTENTIAL IS STILL SHAKY ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE INVOLVES A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING AND IS SHOWN TO STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM
THIS FROPA AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING WILL STAY CLOSER TO A 120KT
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE LOWER 10 KFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE...WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TRANSITION DAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A BROAD
BUT FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE FRONT STALLED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BETTER UPPER FORCING WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY.
NONETHELESS...DECENT CROSS COMPONENT FLOW TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL ALLOW A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET
AXIS. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM BUT
SHOULD STAY THE MOST OPAQUE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALREADY IN EXISTENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE CIRRUS REINFORCING THIS
GRADIENT...WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR ORD...TO THE MID
70S NEAR BELOIT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL DIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION
ON THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS PRODUCING AN ENHANCED BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB LAYER. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE IT
APPEARS THIS FORCING WILL ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITIC
LAYER AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TRICKY BUT WILL START WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE TOO WARM.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MODEST SUBSIDENCE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW ANY SIGN OF LIGHT
RAINFALL TO SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FA BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD AND DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 071010
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE LONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS RULE INVOLVES A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING AND IS SHOWN TO STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM
THIS FROPA AS THE BETTER UPPER FORCING WILL STAY CLOSER TO A 120KT
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE LOWER 10 KFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY. OTHERWISE...WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A TRANSITION DAY AS A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE A BROAD
BUT FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE FRONT STALLED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BETTER UPPER FORCING WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY.
NONETHELESS...DECENT CROSS COMPONENT FLOW TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL ALLOW A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET
AXIS. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM BUT
SHOULD STAY THE MOST OPAQUE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALREADY IN EXISTENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE CIRRUS REINFORCING THIS
GRADIENT...WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR ORD...TO THE MID
70S NEAR BELOIT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL DIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION
ON THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS PRODUCING AN ENHANCED BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB LAYER. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE IT
APPEARS THIS FORCING WILL ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITIC
LAYER AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TRICKY BUT WILL START WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE TOO WARM.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MODEST SUBSIDENCE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW ANY SIGN OF LIGHT
RAINFALL TO SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FA BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD AND DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
JUST WEST OF KGRI WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY WILL
STEADILY VEER BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES...SETTLING ON AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN. CONCERNING CLOUD
COVER...ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS...WHICH WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED AND LOWER TO AROUND 20 KFT AGL THIS EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLBF 071000
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP TODAY...WITH H20 VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT
NUMBER ONE HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE...WHILE A SECOND FRONT IS
JUST NORTH OF THE NEB/SD BORDER. IN THE VALLEYS THE TEMPS HAVE
FALLING BACK IN THE 30S FROM THE RECORD TO NEAR RECORDS TEMPS SEEN
YESTERDAY. SOME AREAS STILL STAYING SOME WHAT MIXED...WITH LATEST
OBS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
FOR TODAY...PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE TO BRING AN INCREASE OF HIGH
CLOUDS...MEANWHILE SECOND FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
SURFACE AND THIN CIRRUS WILL ALLOW SOME SUN TO REACH THE GROUND.
TEMPS NOT NEAR WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS COOL AIR BEHIND FRONTS
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BRUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
NORTH. AS HIGH PUSHES TOWARD IA...EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AND HELP REBOUND TEMPS INTO THE 60S.
NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT THE SURFACE...AND
QUESTION HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND. MODELS FOR THE
MOST PART ARE SPOTTY AT BEST FOR QPF...HOWEVER SHREF DOES PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
LIGHT RAIN IN FORECAST...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST
AREAS DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY MONDAY AND A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM UNDERNEATH A CONTINUED ZONAL PATTERN INTO MIDWEEK. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY EXITED WRN NEBR. WINDS FCST TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST BY 21Z AND REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER. WIND
SPEEDS TO BE 10 KTS OR LESS. CURRENT SKC TO BECOME FEW-SCT250
THROUGH 21Z...THEN SCT-BKN250 AFT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
000
FXUS63 KOAX 070900
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT COMING IN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THAT ONLY PROVIDES A WIND SHIFT
TODAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST...BUT WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. MIXING
TO ABOUT 900MB SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
MAV NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE READINGS FROM YESTERDAY.
THE FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARD THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK WAVE NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE WARM FRONT...SETTING
UP KSTJ TO KDSM BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH COOLER NEAR NORMAL
READINGS ON MONDAY. REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE DYNAMICS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AS BEST
LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
IN THE MID TERM...MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED MID WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM AS IT WILL BE THIS
WEEKEND. LATEST ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A MUCH SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAN THE GFS SINCE IT NOW DIGS A STRONG CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...THUS CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE LATE WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO WIDESPREAD MODEL SOLUTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
12/06Z TAFS
A SFC FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SAG
SOUTH...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN...HOWEVER AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHS TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
RE-ORGANIZE OVR WRN KS/SW NEB WITH A WRMFNT RE-DEVELOPING OVR ERN
NEB. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE FOR VARIABLE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THRU THE TAF PD.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS. THERE IS A POCKET OF
STRONGER 30 TO 35KT WINDS AROUND 2K FT ABV GRD FM THE NW AND THIS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THRU 12Z FOR THE KOFK AND KOMA SITES. IN
ADDITION MAY NEED TO INCLUDE LLWS IN LATER PERIODS DUE TO THE H925
WIND MAX INCREASING AND MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER 06Z. WILL ALSO KEEP
AN EYE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RETURNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ABOVE 10K FT AFT 00Z WITH VFR CIGS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEWALD/ZAPOTOCNY
000
FXUS63 KGID 070604
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
JUST WEST OF KGRI WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY WILL
STEADILY VEER BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES...SETTLING ON AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN. CONCERNING CLOUD
COVER...ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS...WHICH WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED AND LOWER TO AROUND 20 KFT AGL THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA IS FINALLY THINNING OUT AND EVEN
STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MAINLY DRY SO NO
PRECIPITATION OR REALLY ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES COOL OFF A LITTLE AND THERE IS SOME COLD
ADVECTION SO THE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION.
SATURDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD. ON SUNDAY A
MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT. THIS WEAKENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 06.12Z GFS PLACES THE BETTER
LIFT/FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE IT SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
06.12Z NAM IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN THIS
PLACEMENT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION
WITH THE WAVE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL IN THAT
THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ARE IN THE SOUTH...SO MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING POPS. WILL ALSO KEEP IT DRY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THE SLOWER NAM TIMING
IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN.
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TO THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH THE 06.12Z GFS AND 06.00Z ECMWF
SUGGEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 070452 AAA
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1052 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BEGIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...BUT OVERNIGHT WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER MORE WEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THEN...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MID-MORNING AND
VEER WIND DIRECTION TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH A BIT MORE OF A
GUSTY NATURE...AND EVENTUALLY VEER MORE EAST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AND WITH SUCH
LITTLE MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA IS FINALLY THINNING OUT AND EVEN
STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MAINLY DRY SO NO
PRECIPITATION OR REALLY ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES COOL OFF A LITTLE AND THERE IS SOME COLD
ADVECTION SO THE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION.
SATURDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD. ON SUNDAY A
MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT. THIS WEAKENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL HAVE A WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 06.12Z GFS PLACES THE BETTER
LIFT/FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...AND THAT IS ALSO WHERE IT SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
06.12Z NAM IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN THIS
PLACEMENT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION
WITH THE WAVE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL IN THAT
THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MONDAY ARE IN THE SOUTH...SO MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING POPS. WILL ALSO KEEP IT DRY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THE SLOWER NAM TIMING
IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN.
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TO THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH THE 06.12Z GFS AND 06.00Z ECMWF
SUGGEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION...18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE NIGHT AND TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
HEINLEIN
| 
