Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KSGF 181100
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in above normal temperatures this weekend into
  early next week (mid to upper 80s), with near record
  temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

- Return of active weather and severe thunderstorm potential
  early to mid next week, with the highest chances on Tuesday.

- Unsettled weather may persist through late next week into
  Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

This Morning: Clouds are slowly clearing across portions of
southern Missouri this morning. As this happens, variable light
winds in the vicinity of low-level moisture may support some fog
approaching sunrise. In general, hi-res model guidance has
backed off over the last 6 to 12 hours on the extent of fog
coverage. The general consensus has been focused across
portions of northern Arkansas into southern Missouri, before
quickly dissipating after sunrise. Areas most likely to see
reduced visibilities will be near lakes and rivers or within
low- lying areas.

This Afternoon-Tonight: Height rises will be on the increase
across the central CONUS this afternoon as a ridge builds into
the region. 850mb temperatures reach to around 16 to 18 C this
afternoon with mostly clear skies. Local climatological research
suggests highs in the lower to middle 80s in this regime. Drier
conditions prevail across the area as well today, providing a
much needed break from recent active weather. Lows tonight drop
into the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Sunday: The ridge builds further east over the area on Sunday,
as 850mb temperatures reach to 18 to 20C (around 90th percentile
of climatology). This correlates to highs in the middle to
upper 80s. Confidence remains high on the anomalously warm
temperatures, as NBM percentile spreads remain around 2 to 4
degrees. Highs in the upper 80s is anywhere from 10 to 15
degrees above normal for mid-May. The area should remain
completely dry through at least Sunday evening. However, cloud
cover slowly builds east into the area on Sunday night as strong
to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of
central Kansas. Recent guidance suggests that this convection
will rapidly decay as it approaches portions of southeast Kansas
and western Missouri late Sunday night into Monday morning. At
this time, we will continue to highlight 20-40% PoPs through
late Sunday night into Monday morning, though no severe weather
is expected this far east given the lack of a favorable
environment.

Monday-Wednesday: By Monday, high pressure shifts east of the
area allowing southwest flow to develop across the Middle
Mississippi Valley. This pattern shift will support a return of
shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. Meanwhile, above
normal temperatures in the middle to upper 80s persist through
Monday and Tuesday before a frontal passage clears the area on
Wednesday. This introduces the potential for near record highs early
next week (see Climate section below). For Monday, rain chances
remain low (10-30%) beyond the weakening activity through
Monday morning. This is depicted by a stout cap within the warm
sector of a developing low pressure system centered across
central Kansas. Breezy southerly winds can be expected on Monday
and Tuesday as warm air and moisture advect into the area.

By Tuesday, the low lifts through northeast Kansas into Iowa.
Ensemble guidance depicts the presence of a strong shortwave
sliding through the broad upper-level trough on Tuesday,
supporting showers and thunderstorms across the area. The
environment appears conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms
on Tuesday afternoon and evening, as ample instability and
deep-layer shear are present within the guidance. Additionally,
rich moisture funnels into the area characterized by a 40+ knot
low-level jet. There is still remaining uncertainties on how the
mesoscale features will evolve and will be best resolved as we
approach 48 to 72 hours out. This includes the potential storm
mode and associated hazards, in addition to exact timing and
locations. The SPC continues to highlight the entire area with a
Slight (15%) risk for severe storms. This aligns with CIPS
Severe Probability Guidance and CSU Machine Learning. An
additional threat to monitor will be flooding, as PWAT values
around 1.5 to 1.8 over the area, or around the 90th percentile
or higher. If there are any training components to this system,
excessive rainfall may quickly become a concern. Shower and
thunderstorm chances are progged to continue through Wednesday
as a secondary shortwave and associated trough and cold front
slide through the area. Wednesday`s severe potential remains a
bit more unclear with the timing of the frontal passage. Stay
tuned for further updates.

Thursday-Friday: Behind the frontal passage on Wednesday, highs
back off into the upper 70s to lower 80s. This remains around 5
degrees above normal for mid to late May. Overall, ensemble
guidance hint at unsettled weather persisting in late next week
and Memorial Day Weekend. However, there remains variance among
the guidance on the extent of rain chances. It is worth noting
that the CPC 8 to 14 day precipitation outlook supports above
normal precipitation through late May.


.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Areas of fog may develop through the early morning, reducing
visibilities to as low as 2 to 4 mile at KBBG. Visibility
reductions around 6 miles at KSGF and KJLN, though confidence is
lower on the extent of the fog this far north. Any areas of fog
dissipate around an hour after sunrise. Winds light and
variable through the morning, becoming predominately
southwesterly around 5 knots in the afternoon with minimal
cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Patchy fog in low-lying areas and near lakes or rivers early
this morning, dissipating after sunrise. High confidence in VFR
conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Light winds at 5
knots or less with minimal cloud cover.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Burchfield