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Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 221043
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
543 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy work their way northeastward
over the next few days, you can expect rainy weather to become the
rule here in the Mid-State. The heaviest rains are expected Friday
afternoon and evening, as the center of circulation traverses our
area. A drying trend commences over the weekend and continues through
the middle of next week, as high pressure builds in across the
Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys.

TNZ501-222215-
Highland Rim District - North-
Including the Counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston,
Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Stewart, Sumner,
Williamson, and Wilson
543 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 78 (-8) 73 (+5) 80
RH % (24H Trend) 81 (+41) 95 (+4) 80
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SE 7-11 S 12-16
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SE 10-14 S 10-14 S 12-16
Precip Chance (%) 90 50 80
Precip Type tstms tstms tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.76 0.19 1.51
Precip Dur (HR) 11 3 11
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1200 1200
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4000 3800
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 9 S 12
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 21 S 26
Dispersion Index 22 17 38
LAL 3 3 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
45 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. North winds up to
5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
46 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 49 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80.
Minimum RH 46 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 45 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ502-222215-
Highland Rim District - South-
Including the Counties of Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Hickman, Lawrence,
Lewis, Lincoln, Marshall, Maury, Moore, Perry, and Wayne
543 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 79 (-6) 73 (+4) 81
RH % (24H Trend) 82 (+27) 95 (+1) 77
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SE 7-11 S 12-16 G22
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 10-14 S 10-14 S 12-16 G23
Precip Chance (%) 100 40 80
Precip Type tstms tstms tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.59 0.09 1.09
Precip Dur (HR) 10 3 11
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1200 1200
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3900 3800
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 10 S 11
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 22 S 25
Dispersion Index 26 19 47
LAL 3 4 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper
60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 47 percent. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. North winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
45 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs around 80. Minimum RH
48 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower
80s. Minimum RH 45 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 46 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ400-222215-
Cumberland District - North-
Including the Counties of Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb,
Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith,
Trousdale, Warren, and White
543 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 77 (-7) 71 (+4) 81
RH % (24H Trend) 77 (+35) 96 (+6) 72
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SE 6-10 S 12-16
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SE 9-13 S 10-14 S 12-16
Precip Chance (%) 80 40 80
Precip Type tstms tstms tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.59 0.23 0.56
Precip Dur (HR) 11 3 10
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 800 1400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 2600 4700
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 10 S 9
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 22 S 20
Dispersion Index 15 10 38
LAL 3 4 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 49 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
48 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 50 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 47 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower
80s. Minimum RH 48 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System