National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 211945
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
145 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Warm wx will continue tonight and Monday as south winds increase. A
cold front will cross the area Monday with showers and very gusty
winds. Cooler northwest winds will take over Monday night through
Tuesday. Mainly dry wx will prevail Tuesday through Friday, then the
next front will bring showers Saturday and Sunday.

TNZ501-221015-
Highland Rim District - North-
Including the Counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston,
Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Stewart, Sumner,
Williamson, and Wilson
145 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover MCldy MCldy PCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 51 (+2) 63 (-1) 37 45
RH % (24H Trend) 78 (0) 62 (+6) 79 56
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 15-19 G25 W 10-14 G20
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 9-13 S 15-19 G25 SW 12-16 G23 W 8-12
Precip Chance (%) 10 90 10 0
Precip Type showers tstms showers NONE
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 1 7 1
Precip Begin 12 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 12 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1200 1400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3900 4500
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 11 W 9
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 25 W 20
Dispersion Index 3 28 11 61
LAL 1 3 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 3 3
Maximum LVORI 3 0 0 0
RH Recovery Poor Poor

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds up
to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH
51 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds up to
5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 43 percent.
South winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Minimum RH 43 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs
in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 70 percent. South winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with showers likely. Cooler. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 60 percent. Northwest winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.

$$

TNZ502-221015-
Highland Rim District - South-
Including the Counties of Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Hickman, Lawrence,
Lewis, Lincoln, Marshall, Maury, Moore, Perry, and Wayne
145 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover PCldy MCldy PCldy PCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 51 (+3) 64 (-2) 36 47
RH % (24H Trend) 81 (+4) 61 (+11) 81 52
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 14-18 G25 W 9-13
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 8-12 S 14-18 G25 SW 11-15 G21 W 7-11
Precip Chance (%) 10 90 0 0
Precip Type showers tstms NONE NONE
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 1 7
Precip Begin 12 AM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 6 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1100 1400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3700 4500
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 12 W 9
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 28 W 20
Dispersion Index 4 35 7 54
LAL 1 3 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 3 4
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0 0
RH Recovery Moderate Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
46 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds up to
5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 40 percent.
South winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Minimum RH 42 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs
in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 70 percent. South winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 56 percent. Northwest winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.

$$

TNZ400-221015-
Cumberland District - North-
Including the Counties of Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb,
Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith,
Trousdale, Warren, and White
145 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover PCldy MCldy PCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 49 (+4) 63 (-1) 38 43
RH % (24H Trend) 81 (+8) 64 (+10) 90 59
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 15-19 G25 W 10-14 G20
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 8-12 S 15-19 G25 SW 14-18 W 9-13
Precip Chance (%) 0 90 40 10
Precip Type NONE tstms showers showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.29 0.07 0.01
Precip Dur (HR) 11 2 1
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 6 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1100 1200
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3800 4000
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 15 W 9
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 35 W 20
Dispersion Index 2 49 17 59
LAL 1 3 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 3 3
Maximum LVORI 1 0 1 1
RH Recovery Moderate Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds
5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH
51 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds up to
5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 40 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Minimum RH 39 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs
in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 66 percent. South winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
around 50. Minimum RH 60 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
showers 70 percent.

$$

13

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System