The official start of winter is only a couple of weeks away and the new outlook from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has some insight into what we can expect across North Dakota and Minnesota. There is some good news for those that are not looking forward to the bitter chill of winter, as warmer than average temperatures appear likely. It also appears that drier than normal conditions will be just as likely. One of the biggest factors in this forecast is the strong El Niño that is expected to last through this winter. There is a tendency for temperatures to be warmer in northern sections of the U.S. during El Niño winters.
December's Breakdown
The following graphics show the current temperature and precipitation outlook for December. The image on the left shows the temperature outlook with the orange and red shading indicating a higher likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures across North Dakota and Minnesota. The image on the right shows the precipitation outlook with the shades of tan and brown indicating a higher likelihood of drier weather.
| Temperature Outlook | Precipitation Outlook |
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"Warmer than Average" May Not Mean "Warm"
However, don't be fooled by the warm colors on the map. There's a difference between warm, let's say 60 degrees and warmer than average. Keep in mind that the average high temperature for Grand Forks in December is 20 degrees. There will be days that are much warmer than average and days where it's below or near average. The monthly forecast describes what conditions will be, averaged over the entire month. There will still be plenty of fluctuations in our December weather. All this being said, there seems to be likely there will be plenty of days where it doesn't feel like a typical winter.
It Will Still Snow
As we've already seen this winter across North Dakota and Minnesota, there's already been some early season snow. Other parts of the northern plains and upper Midwest have seen plenty of snow already this winter. Sioux Falls, SD recorded its fourth snowiest November on record and it has already snowed twice in Chicago. The important thing to remember about the forecast is that the amount of precipitation expected for December and through the winter is below the average amount that we typically receive.
Breakdown for the Rest of Winter
The next two graphics show the current temperature and precipitation outlook for the rest of winter through February. The trend looks to continue for the next few months with above average temperatures expected. The image below on the left shows the temperature outlook through February with the orange and red shading again indicating a higher likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures across North Dakota and Minnesota. The image on the right shows the precipitation outlook through February with the shades of tan and brown indicating a higher likelihood of drier weather. It is important to remember that these forecasts are for the overall month and season. These expected temperatures will be accompanied by periods of both colder and warmer temperatures.
| Temperature Outlook | Precipitation Outlook |
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