National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 090846
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Warmer air and additional moisture continue to filter in from the
south today. Rain chances increase this afternoon into tonight ahead
of a cold front. As colder air overtakes the precipitation on Tuesday,
rain will transition to snow in the afternoon and evening. Wednesday
and Thursday will be dry with Min RH values around 40 percent or
greater. Rain chances return as early as Friday morning, continuing
through late Saturday.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-092230-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
246 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Today Tonight Tue

Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 65 (+4) 36 (-17) 39
RH % (24H Trend) 71 (+13) 88 (+2) 78
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 12-16 G25 N 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 12-16 G23 SW 10-14 G20 N 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 60 80 80
Precip Type Showers Showers Snow/Rain
Precip Amount (IN) 0.05 0.18 0.30
Precip Dur (HR) 3 9 10
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 200 600
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 800 2100
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 9 N 7
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 21 N 15
Dispersion Index 9 15 19
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow.
Lows in the lower 20s. North winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH
44 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
48 percent. East winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 65 percent. Southeast winds up to
5 mph. Chance of showers 40 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 69 percent.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
50s. Minimum RH 60 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-092230-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
246 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Today Tonight Tue

Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 64 (+5) 41 (-8) 44
RH % (24H Trend) 67 (+15) 95 (+14) 86
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 12-16 G23 NW 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 12-16 G23 SW 10-14 G20 N 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 50 80 80
Precip Type Showers Showers Snow/Rain
Precip Amount (IN) 0.04 0.24 0.41
Precip Dur (HR) 2 10 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 400 700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 1200 2200
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 9 N 6
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 21 N 14
Dispersion Index 9 6 20
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds up to
5 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Minimum RH
44 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
46 percent. East winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and snow.
Lows in the lower 30s. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 63 percent.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 69 percent. West winds
up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
50s. Minimum RH 58 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-092230-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
246 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Today Tonight Tue

Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 66 (+6) 41 (-12) 44
RH % (24H Trend) 70 (+12) 92 (+3) 84
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 11-15 G23 N 8-12
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 11-15 G23 SW 9-13 N 6-10
Precip Chance (%) 50 80 80
Precip Type Showers Showers Snow/Rain
Precip Amount (IN) 0.04 0.13 0.40
Precip Dur (HR) 2 9 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 200 600
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 700 2100
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 9 N 8
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 21 N 18
Dispersion Index 8 8 23
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow.
Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH
41 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast
winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 47 percent.
East winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 64 percent.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows around
40. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 66 percent. West winds up to
5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Minimum RH 57 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-092230-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
246 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Today Tonight Tue

Cloud Cover Mcldy Cloudy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 64 (+6) 45 (-4) 48
RH % (24H Trend) 68 (+14) 95 (+12) 89
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 11-15 G23 N 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 11-15 G23 SW 10-14 G20 N 6-10
Precip Chance (%) 40 80 80
Precip Type Showers Showers Snow/Rain
Precip Amount (IN) 0.05 0.21 0.43
Precip Dur (HR) 2 9 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 200 500
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 600 1500
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 9 N 8
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 20 N 17
Dispersion Index 6 4 20
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...A chance of snow and rain likely. Lows in the upper
20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH
43 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast
winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 46 percent.
East winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 65 percent.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 68 percent. West winds
up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
50s. Minimum RH 55 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System