National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 280923
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
423 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will be gusty out of the south through mid afternoon today. Off
and on showers are expected all day today through Saturday as an
upper low moves over the Tennessee Valley. Total rainfall amounts
expected are around or just below an inch. Rain should move out of
the area by Sunday morning.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-282215-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
423 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 64 (-3) 50 (+1) 58
RH % (24H Trend) 61 (+24) 99 (+6) 75
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) SE 12-16 G23 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) S 9-13 G20 S 6-10 W 3-7
Precip Chance (%) 90 80 80
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (in) 0.25 0.16 0.15
Precip Dur (hr) 5 4 7
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1100 800
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3600 2600
Transport Wnd (m/s) S 9 W 2
Transport Wnd (mph) S 20 W 3
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 8947 2412
Category Day 4 1
Dispersion Index 43 9 6
LAL 2 2 1
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 6 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. West winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 72 percent. Northwest winds 5 to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH
47 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Minimum RH 46 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
50s. Minimum RH 46 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 50s. Minimum RH 51 percent. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-282215-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
423 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 61 (-3) 49 (+4) 55
RH % (24H Trend) 65 (+28) 100 (+9) 77
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) SE 12-16 G23 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) SE 10-14 G20 S 6-10 LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 80 70 80
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (in) 0.15 0.09 0.15
Precip Dur (hr) 3 5 10
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 800 700
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 2700 2400
Transport Wnd (m/s) S 9 SW 3
Transport Wnd (mph) S 21 SW 6
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 8060 3799
Category Day 3 1
Dispersion Index 48 10 10
LAL 2 2 1
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 9 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 40s. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
75 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 60. Minimum RH 56 percent.
Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. Minimum RH 48 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. Minimum RH 47 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 50s. Minimum RH 55 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-282215-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
423 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 65 (-6) 50 (0) 57
RH % (24H Trend) 58 (+25) 98 (+4) 75
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) SE 12-16 G23 SW 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) S 9-13 S 6-10 W 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 70 80 70
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (in) 0.23 0.17 0.14
Precip Dur (hr) 3 6 8
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1100 700
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3600 2400
Transport Wnd (m/s) S 9 W 3
Transport Wnd (mph) S 21 W 7
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 10954 3961
Category Day 4 2
Dispersion Index 45 19 9
LAL 2 2 1
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 5 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 50. West winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 72 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest
winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 54 percent.
Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Minimum RH 48 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Minimum RH 47 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. Minimum RH 55 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-282215-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
423 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 60 (-8) 49 (+2) 54
RH % (24H Trend) 65 (+31) 99 (+9) 77
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) SE 15-19 G26 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) SE 11-15 G21 S 6-10 LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 90 80 80
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (in) 0.28 0.11 0.21
Precip Dur (hr) 5 5 11
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 900 700
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3000 2300
Transport Wnd (m/s) S 10 SW 4
Transport Wnd (mph) S 22 SW 8
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 8524 3163
Category Day 4 2
Dispersion Index 46 17 14
LAL 2 2 1
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 5 9 8
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds around
5 mph. Chance of showers 80 percent.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
77 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH
54 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Minimum RH 48 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
60s. Minimum RH 47 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
50s. Minimum RH 53 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System