National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 210823
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
323 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty south winds are expected today ahead of a line of showers and
storms that will move across Middle Tennessee late this morning
through the afternoon. Rainfall totals between 0.5 and 1.25 inches
are expected with this activity. Cooler and dry weather is
anticipated tomorrow through Thursday, with rain returning fore the
end of the week.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-212330-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
323 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Today Tonight Tue

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Clear
Temp (24H Trend) 75 (0) 47 (-10) 65
RH % (24H Trend) 66 (+18) 90 (-1) 39
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 12-16 G25 W 8-12 G18
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 12-16 G23 SW 9-13 W 10-14 G20
Precip Chance (%) 90 60 0
Precip Type Tstms Tstms None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.37 0.17 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 8 3
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 3 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 900 1700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3000 5400
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 11 W 10
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 25 W 23
Dispersion Index 15 6 66
LAL 5 5 1
Haines Index 2 3 4
Maximum LVORI 0 1 2
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 40. West winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH 35 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds up to
5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
41 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Cooler.
Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 61 percent.
North winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 58 percent. East
winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH 55 percent. South winds
up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-212330-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
323 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Today Tonight Tue

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 76 (+6) 49 (-5) 65
RH % (24H Trend) 55 (-3) 97 (+2) 40
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 12-16 W 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 12-16 G23 S 9-13 W 9-13
Precip Chance (%) 80 80 10
Precip Type Tstms Tstms None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.31 0.61 0.01
Precip Dur (HR) 3 7
Precip Begin 1 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 7 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 900 1700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 2900 5600
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 14 W 10
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 31 W 23
Dispersion Index 30 7 56
LAL 5 5 1
Haines Index 2 2 4
Maximum LVORI 10 1 2
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds up to
5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 35 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds up to
5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH
39 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 63 percent. North winds
up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 59 percent. East
winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH 56 percent. South
winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-212330-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
323 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Today Tonight Tue

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Clear
Temp (24H Trend) 75 (+1) 48 (-10) 66
RH % (24H Trend) 66 (+12) 93 (0) 37
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 11-15 G23 W 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 11-15 G23 SW 9-13 W 9-13
Precip Chance (%) 90 50 10
Precip Type Tstms Tstms None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.52 0.22 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 8 4
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 2 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 700 1700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 2300 5700
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 11 W 10
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 24 W 22
Dispersion Index 13 8 63
LAL 5 5 1
Haines Index 2 3 4
Maximum LVORI 2 1 2
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 40. West winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH 34 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds up to
5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
40 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 62 percent. North
winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 58 percent. East
winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH 55 percent. South winds
up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-212330-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
323 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Today Tonight Tue

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 75 (+4) 49 (-6) 65
RH % (24H Trend) 57 (0) 99 (+2) 38
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 10-14 G21 W 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 11-15 G23 S 10-14 G20 W 9-13 G20
Precip Chance (%) 90 80 0
Precip Type Tstms Tstms None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.40 0.58 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 3 7
Precip Begin 11 AM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 6 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 700 1700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 2200 5400
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 12 W 9
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 28 W 21
Dispersion Index 18 6 58
LAL 5 5 1
Haines Index 2 2 4
Maximum LVORI 10 1 2
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 40. West winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 33 percent.
West winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Southeast winds up
to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH
38 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 64 percent. North
winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 59 percent. East
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH 56 percent. South winds
up to 5 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System