National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 300710
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
210 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Middle Tennessee is transitioning into a much drier weather pattern.
Conditions will be cool today with north winds around 10 mph with
min RH values at or above 50%. A cold front will pass through the
area on Sunday with N winds at 10-20 mph and min RH values in the
northwest around 40-45%. After a heavy frost Monday morning,
afternoon min RH values will dip into the low 30% range and perhaps
the upper 20s, but winds will be light. Tuesday min RH values will be
slightly higher in the mid 30 to low 40 percent range. Moisture will
increase slightly through the Friday but no chances of rain are in
the forecast.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-302215-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
210 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Today Tonight Sat

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 53 (-15) 36 (-1) 62
RH % (24H Trend) 56 (-23) 98 (+2) 51
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 7-11 E 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 6-10 NE 3-7 S 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 0 0
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1100 1000
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3700 3300
Transport Wnd (m/s) N 6 S 7
Transport Wnd (mph) N 14 S 15
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 7830 7263
Category Day 3 3
Dispersion Index 32 0 20
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 3 2
Maximum LVORI 9 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
42 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Widespread frost. Colder. Lows around 30.
North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Areas of frost. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH
35 percent. North winds up to 5 mph shifting to the northwest in the
afternoon.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Widespread frost. Areas of frost. Lows in the mid
30s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 42 percent. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 60s.
Minimum RH 44 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
60s. Minimum RH 49 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-302215-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
210 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Today Tonight Sat

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 51 (-22) 36 (-3) 61
RH % (24H Trend) 62 (+1) 95 (-1) 49
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 7-11 SE 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 7-11 NE 4-8 S 3-7
Precip Chance (%) 10 0 0
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1200 1200
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 4100 3800
Transport Wnd (m/s) N 6 S 6
Transport Wnd (mph) N 14 S 14
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 8001 7024
Category Day 3 3
Dispersion Index 34 0 20
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 4 3
Maximum LVORI 7 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
46 percent. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Widespread frost. Colder. Lows in the upper
20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Areas of frost. Highs around 50. Minimum RH
35 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Widespread frost. Areas of frost. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 39 percent. Southwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Minimum RH 43 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper
60s. Minimum RH 47 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-302215-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
210 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Today Tonight Sat

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 55 (-13) 37 (-1) 63
RH % (24H Trend) 55 (-16) 97 (+1) 51
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 7-11 E 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 6-10 NE 3-7 S 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 0 0
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1100 1000
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3500 3400
Transport Wnd (m/s) N 7 S 8
Transport Wnd (mph) N 15 S 17
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 8432 7938
Category Day 3 3
Dispersion Index 36 0 23
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 8 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds
around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH
43 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Widespread frost. Colder. Lows in the lower
30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Areas of frost. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
35 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Widespread frost. Areas of frost. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 39 percent. Southwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper
60s. Minimum RH 42 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
60s. Minimum RH 48 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-302215-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
210 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Today Tonight Sat

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 52 (-19) 37 (-2) 61
RH % (24H Trend) 61 (+1) 92 (-4) 49
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 7-11 G16 SE 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 7-11 N 6-10 SE 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 0 0
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1000 800
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3400 2700
Transport Wnd (m/s) N 8 S 8
Transport Wnd (mph) N 17 S 18
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 8188 7018
Category Day 3 3
Dispersion Index 39 0 23
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 4 3
Maximum LVORI 5 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Widespread frost. Colder. Lows around 30.
North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Areas of frost. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH
34 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Widespread frost. Areas of frost. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 37 percent. Southwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid
60s. Minimum RH 41 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
60s. Minimum RH 46 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System