National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 012036
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
236 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Dry condition are expected to prevail across mid state region
tonight and at least through morning hours on Tuesday. An upper
level system will approach and move across mid state region Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening bringing with it rain showers in the
afternoon and evening hours before a possible rain/snow mix after
midnight. No snowfall accumulations are expected at this time.
Total rainfall amounts will range only from just a few tenths of
an inch north to around a quarter of an inch south. Dry conditions
will then prevail through next Monday.

TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-021100-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
236 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Tonight Tue Tue Night Wed

Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Mcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 32 (-9) 51 (+1) 33 61
RH % (24H Trend) 85 (-15) 48 (-5) 88 45
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) E 4-8 NW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 4-8 E 3-7 LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 0 20 60 0
Precip Type None Showers Showers None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00
Precip Dur (hr) 0 5
Precip Begin 4 PM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 6 AM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1100 1300
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3500 4400
Transport Wnd (m/s) NE 2 NW 4
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 5 NW 8
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 2196 5658
Category Day 2 3
Dispersion Index 13 10 2 19
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 4 4 4 4
Maximum LVORI 5 6 10 10
RH Recovery Moderate Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
51 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 46 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
50s. Minimum RH 50 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper
50s. Minimum RH 50 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Minimum RH 50 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-021100-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
236 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Tonight Tue Tue Night Wed

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Mcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 32 (-12) 51 (+2) 34 59
RH % (24H Trend) 84 (-15) 43 (-17) 89 41
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) E 6-10 N 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 7-11 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 0 20 60 10
Precip Type None None Showers None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00
Precip Dur (hr) 5
Precip Begin 4 PM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 6 AM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1100 1300
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3700 4200
Transport Wnd (m/s) E 2 NW 4
Transport Wnd (mph) E 3 NW 8
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 2147 5621
Category Day 1 3
Dispersion Index 16 10 1 19
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 4 4 4 4
Maximum LVORI 4 5 10 8
RH Recovery Poor Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
50 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds up
to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH
41 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
50s. Minimum RH 48 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Minimum RH 50 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper
50s. Minimum RH 49 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-021100-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
236 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Tonight Tue Tue Night Wed

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Mcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 35 (-9) 50 (-2) 36 60
RH % (24H Trend) 87 (-13) 51 (-6) 91 44
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) E 3-7 N 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 4-8 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 0 40 70 0
Precip Type None Showers Showers None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.02 0.17 0.00
Precip Dur (hr) 1 5
Precip Begin 1 PM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 6 AM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1000 1300
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3400 4400
Transport Wnd (m/s) NE 3 NW 4
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 6 NW 9
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 3469 5965
Category Day 2 3
Dispersion Index 17 13 3 22
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 4 4 3 3
Maximum LVORI 4 5 10 9
RH Recovery Moderate Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds up
to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds
up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 42 percent.
Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper
50s. Minimum RH 51 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper
50s. Minimum RH 51 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Minimum RH 52 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-021100-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
236 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Tonight Tue Tue Night Wed

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Mcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 35 (-10) 50 (-2) 37 58
RH % (24H Trend) 82 (-16) 48 (-12) 88 43
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) E 4-8 N 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 6-10 SE 3-7 SE 4-8 NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 0 40 80 10
Precip Type None None Showers None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00
Precip Dur (hr) 6
Precip Begin 3 PM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 6 AM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1000 1100
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 3400 3800
Transport Wnd (m/s) E 2 N 5
Transport Wnd (mph) E 5 N 12
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 3002 6624
Category Day 2 3
Dispersion Index 18 11 4 24
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 4 4 3 3
Maximum LVORI 4 5 9 8
RH Recovery Poor Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 49 percent.
North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 40 percent.
Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
50s. Minimum RH 47 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Minimum RH 47 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs around 60.
Minimum RH 48 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$
JB Wright

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System