National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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169
FNUS54 KOHX 250822
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
322 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will be in the forecast
over the next few days, keeping min RH values below critical fire
weather thresholds. Southerly winds today and tonight around 10 to 15
mph will become northwesterly/northerly on Wednesday as a cold front
passes through the area. Drier weather will move in behind the front
later on Wednesday and Thursday, which will drop min RH values a bit,
but still expecting min RH values to stay around and above 50
percent Wednesday and Thursday.


TNZ501-252245-
Highland Rim District - North-
Including the Counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston,
Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Stewart, Sumner,
Williamson, and Wilson
322 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Today Tonight Wed

Cloud Cover MCldy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 81 (+4) 68 (-2) 74
RH % (24H Trend) 78 (-6) 97 (-2) 66
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 9-13 NW 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 9-13 S 7-11 N 7-11
Precip Chance (%) 60 70 70
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.17 0.47 0.23
Precip Dur (HR) 5 9 3
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1500 900
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4800 3000
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 7 N 7
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 16 N 16
Dispersion Index 35 1 15
LAL 4 4 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
53 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds
up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
48 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80.
Minimum RH 53 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower
80s. Minimum RH 56 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
57 percent. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ502-252245-
Highland Rim District - South-
Including the Counties of Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Hickman, Lawrence,
Lewis, Lincoln, Marshall, Maury, Moore, Perry, and Wayne
322 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Today Tonight Wed

Cloud Cover MCldy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 81 (+1) 69 (-1) 76
RH % (24H Trend) 79 (+1) 96 (-2) 75
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 8-12 W 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 8-12 S 6-10 N 7-11
Precip Chance (%) 70 80 80
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.17 0.58 0.53
Precip Dur (HR) 5 7 8
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1500 1100
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4900 3500
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 7 NW 7
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 15 NW 15
Dispersion Index 30 1 16
LAL 4 4 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 58 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds
up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
57 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum
RH 54 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
55 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ400-252245-
Cumberland District - North-
Including the Counties of Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb,
Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith,
Trousdale, Warren, and White
322 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Today Tonight Wed

Cloud Cover MCldy MCldy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 80 (+4) 69 (0) 73
RH % (24H Trend) 78 (-4) 96 (-3) 85
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 10-14 W 6-10
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 8-12 S 7-11 NW 7-11
Precip Chance (%) 50 80 80
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.13 0.64 0.58
Precip Dur (HR) 2 10 11
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1400 800
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4600 2600
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 8 NW 3
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 18 NW 6
Dispersion Index 35 1 8
LAL 4 4 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 70 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 55 percent. North
winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 60 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower
80s. Minimum RH 58 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower
80s. Minimum RH 62 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System