National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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253
FNUS54 KOHX 310744
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Slightly drier conditions expected today, with min RH values in the
40 to 50 percent range in the afternoon. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will move in late afternoon with best chances late
evening and overnight into Sunday morning. North northwest winds
around 5 to 10 mph expected today, with 10 to 15 mph northwest winds
expected on Sunday.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-312230-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 91 (-1) 70 (0) 85
RH % (24H Trend) 41 (-16) 99 (+5) 48
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR NW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) NW 3-7 LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 20 80 60
Precip Type None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.02 0.67 0.10
Precip Dur (hr) 6 2
Precip Begin 4 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 6 PM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1700 1500
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5500 4800
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 2 N 5
Transport Wnd (mph) W 5 N 10
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 6048 9396
Category Day 2 3
Dispersion Index 12 7 21
LAL 2 5 4
Haines Index 4 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 40 percent.
North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
36 percent. North winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 36 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper
80s. Minimum RH 37 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Minimum RH 36 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-312230-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Mcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 88 (-1) 69 (+1) 82
RH % (24H Trend) 44 (-15) 98 (0) 53
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR W 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) NW 3-7 LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 80 70
Precip Type None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.42 0.12
Precip Dur (hr) 4 5
Precip Begin 7 PM Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1600 1500
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5200 4900
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 3 NW 6
Transport Wnd (mph) W 6 NW 13
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 5852 9453
Category Day 3 4
Dispersion Index 11 4 22
LAL 1 5 5
Haines Index 4 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 41 percent. North
winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
41 percent. North winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower
80s. Minimum RH 40 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 43 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s.
Minimum RH 41 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-312230-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Mcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 92 (-1) 72 (0) 85
RH % (24H Trend) 46 (-11) 97 (-1) 59
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR NW 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) NW 3-7 LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 20 50 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.05 0.29 0.10
Precip Dur (hr) 0 2 4
Precip Begin 4 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 2000 1200
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 6400 4100
Transport Wnd (m/s) NW 4 NW 5
Transport Wnd (mph) NW 8 NW 12
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 12173 8433
Category Day 3 3
Dispersion Index 19 4 18
LAL 2 5 4
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 46 percent. North
winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
40 percent. North winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 39 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper
80s. Minimum RH 38 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Minimum RH 38 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-312230-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Mcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 89 (-2) 70 (0) 83
RH % (24H Trend) 44 (-13) 97 (-2) 59
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR W 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) NW 4-8 W 3-7 NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 60 70
Precip Type None Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.22 0.12
Precip Dur (hr) 1 6
Precip Begin 1 AM Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1500 1100
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5000 3700
Transport Wnd (m/s) NW 3 NW 6
Transport Wnd (mph) NW 7 NW 14
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 6886 9675
Category Day 3 3
Dispersion Index 15 4 24
LAL 1 5 5
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 9 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 43 percent. North
winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
40 percent. North winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower
80s. Minimum RH 41 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum
RH 43 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
39 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System