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Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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711
FNUS54 KOHX 120824
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
324 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Conditions will be just below marginal fire danger today but
will be improved on Thursday as wind speeds weaken. Fire
danger conditions will need to be monitored this afternoon.

TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-122230-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
324 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Today Tonight Thu

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 65 (-4) 44 (-3) 67
RH % (24H Trend) 32 (-15) 79 (+6) 30
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) NE 7-11 G16 NE 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) NE 7-11 NE 6-10 NE 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 10 10
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1600 2400
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5400 7800
Transport Wnd (m/s) NE 10 NE 3
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 23 NE 7
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 16865 12599
Category Day 5 3
Dispersion Index 68 13 35
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 4 4
Maximum LVORI 4 7 6
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
30 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. East winds up
to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
33 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 36 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 42 percent. South winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of showers 40 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 44 percent. South winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of showers 50 percent.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-122230-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
324 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Today Tonight Thu

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 63 (-5) 42 (-3) 65
RH % (24H Trend) 31 (-15) 77 (+4) 34
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) NE 7-11 NE 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) NE 6-10 NE 4-8 NE 3-7
Precip Chance (%) 20 10 10
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin 6 AM
Precip End 9 AM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1700 2300
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5600 7700
Transport Wnd (m/s) NE 8 N 3
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 17 N 6
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 15710 12291
Category Day 4 3
Dispersion Index 53 10 24
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 4 4
Maximum LVORI 4 7 6
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH
31 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast winds
up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
33 percent. Southeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the southwest in
the afternoon.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid
70s. Minimum RH 37 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid
70s. Minimum RH 42 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the upper
50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 42 percent. South winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of showers 40 percent.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-122230-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
324 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Today Tonight Thu

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 65 (-4) 44 (-4) 68
RH % (24H Trend) 34 (-18) 82 (0) 32
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) NE 7-11 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) NE 6-10 NE 6-10 LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 20 10 10
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.01 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin 6 AM
Precip End 8 AM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1500 2200
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 4900 7300
Transport Wnd (m/s) NE 9 NE 3
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 21 NE 7
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 15463 11149
Category Day 4 3
Dispersion Index 54 11 24
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 3 4
Maximum LVORI 5 8 8
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast winds
up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
31 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. East winds up
to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
35 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80.
Minimum RH 38 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 44 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 47 percent. South winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of showers 50 percent.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-122230-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
324 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Today Tonight Thu

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 62 (-7) 43 (-4) 65
RH % (24H Trend) 41 (-11) 81 (-2) 37
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) NE 7-11 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) NE 4-8 NE 4-8 LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 30 20 10
Precip Type Showers Showers None
Precip Amount (in) 0.01 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr) 1 1
Precip Begin 6 AM 1 AM
Precip End 10 AM 6 AM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1300 2000
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 4200 6400
Transport Wnd (m/s) NE 6 NW 2
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 14 NW 3
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 11338 5986
Category Day 4 2
Dispersion Index 40 6 13
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 4 8 8
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Minimum RH 33 percent.
North winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast winds
up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
32 percent. Southeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the southwest in
the afternoon.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 37 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 42 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows around 60. Highs
in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 43 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of showers 30 percent.

$$

end/07


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System