National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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489
FNUS54 KOHX 162041
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
241 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Dry weather is expected the next few days but humidity values are
not expected to be excessively low. Fire danger is not expected.

TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-171015-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
241 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Tonight Sun Sun Night Martin Luther King Jr Day

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 31 (0) 44 (+3) 28 44
RH % (24H Trend) 93 (-1) 51 (-7) 94 53
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) SW 8-12 W 6-10
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) W 6-10 W 9-13 W 4-8 W 6-10
Precip Chance (%) 10 10 10 0
Precip Type None None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin 7 PM
Precip End 11 PM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1500 1300
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5000 4100
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 9 W 6
Transport Wnd (mph) W 21 W 14
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 15746 8259
Category Day 4 4
Dispersion Index 23 61 21 34
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 8 8 8 9
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds
around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
57 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
53 percent. East winds up to 5 mph shifting to the south in the
afternoon.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 82 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Cooler.
Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH 63 percent.
North winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid
40s. Minimum RH 59 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-171015-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
241 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Tonight Sun Sun Night Martin Luther King Jr Day

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 31 (+1) 42 (+5) 27 39
RH % (24H Trend) 93 (-1) 55 (-5) 95 59
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) SW 7-11 W 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) W 7-11 W 7-11 G16 W 7-11 W 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 10 10 0
Precip Type None None Flurries None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr) 2
Precip Begin 1 AM Continuing 7 PM
Precip End Continuing 8 AM 5 AM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1500 1200
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 4900 3900
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 10 W 6
Transport Wnd (mph) W 22 W 14
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 15422 8172
Category Day 4 3
Dispersion Index 24 59 23 37
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 3 3
Maximum LVORI 8 7 7 7
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
56 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds up
to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH
55 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 86 percent. West
winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH 67 percent. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid
40s. Minimum RH 66 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-171015-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
241 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Tonight Sun Sun Night Martin Luther King Jr Day

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 30 (0) 47 (+6) 27 46
RH % (24H Trend) 98 (+9) 44 (-12) 98 49
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) SW 7-11 W 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) W 3-7 W 7-11 G16 W 4-8 W 6-10
Precip Chance (%) 10 0 10 0
Precip Type None None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1600 1300
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5200 4200
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 10 W 6
Transport Wnd (mph) W 22 W 14
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 16331 8762
Category Day 4 4
Dispersion Index 18 61 17 34
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 3 3 4 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 9 9
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds up
to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 52 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and snow showers. Lows around 30. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 59 percent.
Northeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 84 percent.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 64 percent. North
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs in the upper 40s.
Minimum RH 59 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-171015-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
241 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Tonight Sun Sun Night Martin Luther King Jr Day

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 30 (0) 44 (+6) 27 43
RH % (24H Trend) 94 (+6) 50 (-7) 93 54
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) SW 7-11 W 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) W 6-10 W 7-11 G16 W 6-10 W 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 10 10 0
Precip Type None None None None
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1600 1200
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5200 3900
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 10 W 6
Transport Wnd (mph) W 22 W 14
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 16327 7742
Category Day 4 3
Dispersion Index 20 60 19 35
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 3 3
Maximum LVORI 8 6 7 7
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
59 percent. North winds up to 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the
afternoon.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 85 percent.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 68 percent. North
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper
40s. Minimum RH 62 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.

$$

end/07


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System