National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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776
FNUS54 KOHX 190826
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
326 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Very low fire danger for the next 7 days. It will be particularly
hot and humid across the midstate today with very light winds and
only isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will
increase during the weekend and peak on Monday as a cold front
approaches. Expect cooler and drier air for the middle of next week
with few if any thunderstorms.

TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-192215-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
326 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Today Tonight Sat

Cloud Cover PCldy MClear PCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 93 (+4) 74 (+2) 92
RH % (24H Trend) 56 (-9) 95 (-4) 58
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 4-8 SW 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 4-8 SW 4-8 SW 3-7
Precip Chance (%) 10 10 20
Precip Type None None Tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 0 0 1
Precip Begin 1 PM
Precip End Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 2300 2300
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 7600 7400
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 4 W 3
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 8 W 6
Dispersion Index 25 0 17
LAL 1 1 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 3 2 1
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 63 percent. Southwest
winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 80s.
Minimum RH 68 percent. West winds up to 5 mph shifting to the north
in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum
RH 50 percent. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 47 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper
80s. Minimum RH 45 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-192215-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
326 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Today Tonight Sat

Cloud Cover PCldy MClear PCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 91 (+5) 72 (+2) 89
RH % (24H Trend) 61 (-7) 97 (-3) 63
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 10 10 30
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.06
Precip Dur (HR) 1 0 2
Precip Begin 1 PM Continuing 7 AM
Precip End Continuing 7 PM Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 2200 2300
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 7100 7600
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 2 SW 2
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 3 SW 3
Dispersion Index 13 0 9
LAL 1 1 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 66 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 80s.
Minimum RH 73 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum
RH 54 percent. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower
80s. Minimum RH 50 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 48 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-192215-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
326 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Today Tonight Sat

Cloud Cover PCldy PCldy PCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 92 (+3) 73 (+1) 90
RH % (24H Trend) 59 (-8) 96 (-3) 61
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 3-7 LGT/VAR SW 3-7
Precip Chance (%) 10 10 30
Precip Type None None Tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.04
Precip Dur (HR) 0 0 2
Precip Begin 4 PM Continuing 7 AM
Precip End Continuing 7 PM Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 2000 2300
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 6700 7400
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 3 W 3
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 6 W 7
Dispersion Index 19 0 21
LAL 1 1 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 1 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 66 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 80s.
Minimum RH 72 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum
RH 55 percent. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 52 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 51 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-192215-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
326 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Today Tonight Sat

Cloud Cover PCldy PCldy PCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 90 (+5) 71 (+1) 87
RH % (24H Trend) 61 (-9) 98 (-2) 65
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 20 20 70
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.17
Precip Dur (HR) 1 0 2
Precip Begin 1 PM Continuing 7 AM
Precip End Continuing 8 PM Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 2100 1700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 6800 5600
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 1 W 2
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 2 W 3
Dispersion Index 10 0 10
LAL 2 2 3
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 2 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 67 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds up to
5 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 80s.
Minimum RH 73 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs around 80. Minimum RH
59 percent. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the
lower 80s. Minimum RH 54 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 53 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System