National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 212019
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
219 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Chances for showers over the next few days will keep min RH values
above 50 percent. Southerly winds this afternoon will give way to
northerly winds Friday afternoon around 10 to 15 mph. A cold front
will pass through the area Saturday, bringing northwest winds around
10 to 15 mph and rain chances ending from west to east late Saturday.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-221045-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
219 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat

Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 50 (+7) 54 (-8) 46 54
RH % (24H Trend) 96 (+15) 83 (+37) 99 68
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) NW 6-10 NW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 NE 6-10 NE 4-8 NW 7-11
Precip Chance (%) 100 100 80 50
Precip Type Showers Showers Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.81 0.43 0.27 0.08
Precip Dur (HR) 8 9 7 2
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 500 700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 1600 2200
Transport Wnd (M/S) NE 6 NW 5
Transport Wnd (MPH) NE 14 NW 10
Dispersion Index 3 12 6 8
LAL 1 1 2 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of sprinkles. Lows
in the mid 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH
54 percent. West winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds
around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
53 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs around 60. Minimum RH 63 percent. South winds
5 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 53 percent. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
58 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-221045-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
219 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat

Cloud Cover Mcldy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 48 (+9) 56 (-7) 48 59
RH % (24H Trend) 97 (+10) 80 (+40) 99 74
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 4-8 SW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 N 4-8 NE 4-8 W 7-11
Precip Chance (%) 90 100 80 70
Precip Type Showers Showers Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.42 0.48 0.35 0.33
Precip Dur (HR) 6 10 8 6
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 500 400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 1500 1400
Transport Wnd (M/S) N 2 NW 4
Transport Wnd (MPH) N 3 NW 9
Dispersion Index 4 3 3 4
LAL 1 1 2 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 54 percent. West
winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
50 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 30s. Highs around 60. Minimum RH 60 percent. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 52 percent. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in
the upper 50s. Minimum RH 52 percent. South winds around 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-221045-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
219 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat

Cloud Cover Mcldy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 51 (+7) 59 (-4) 50 57
RH % (24H Trend) 94 (+15) 79 (+35) 100 66
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 6-10 W 6-10
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 NE 4-8 NE 4-8 NW 6-10
Precip Chance (%) 80 100 90 50
Precip Type Showers Showers Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.30 0.38 0.52 0.09
Precip Dur (HR) 5 11 12 2
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 400 500
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 1400 1600
Transport Wnd (M/S) N 4 NW 5
Transport Wnd (MPH) N 8 NW 10
Dispersion Index 2 6 4 8
LAL 1 1 2 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0 1
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of sprinkles. Lows
in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH
51 percent. West winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
52 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 62 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 52 percent. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 40. Highs around 60. Minimum RH 59 percent. Southeast
winds around 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-221045-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
219 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat

Cloud Cover Mcldy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Temp (24H Trend) 49 (+8) 58 (-4) 52 60
RH % (24H Trend) 90 (+9) 76 (+35) 100 75
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 7-11 SW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR W 7-11
Precip Chance (%) 70 90 90 70
Precip Type Showers Showers Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.10 0.33 0.60 0.40
Precip Dur (HR) 4 12 12 6
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 300 400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 1100 1400
Transport Wnd (M/S) E 1 NW 5
Transport Wnd (MPH) E 1 NW 10
Dispersion Index 3 2 1 4
LAL 1 1 2 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 0 0 0
RH Recovery Moderate Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 53 percent. West
winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
50 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 30s. Highs around 60. Minimum RH 61 percent. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 51 percent. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in
the upper 50s. Minimum RH 52 percent. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System