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Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 241914
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
214 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into Monday will
keep min RH values above 50 percent Monday. This afternoon, min RH
values will be between 20 and 30 percent before temperatures fall
this evening and dewpoints increase with approaching rain chances.
Winds will be out of the south today around 5 to 10 mph, and be out
of the northwest/north Monday afternoon around 10 to 15 mph.
Northerly winds will remain strong Monday night and into the day
Tuesday, when min RH values again drop to the 20 to 30 percent range.


TNZ501-251015-
Highland Rim District - North-
Including the counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston,
Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Stewart, Sumner,
Williamson, and Wilson
214 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover MCldy MCldy MCldy MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 52 (+10) 65 (-1) 40 57
RH % (24H Trend) 88 (+19) 69 (+31) 80 34
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 4-8 N 8-12
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 6-10 NW 10-14 N 10-14 N 9-13
Precip Chance (%) 70 70 30 10
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Showers None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.26 0.14 0.01 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 3 3 0 0
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 9 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1800 1100
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 5800 3800
Transport Wnd (M/S) W 7 NE 8
Transport Wnd (MPH) W 16 NE 17
Dispersion Index
LAL 2 2 2 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 4
Maximum LVORI
RH Recovery Moderate Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds
around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 39 percent.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds
up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH
40 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70.
Minimum RH 46 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower
50s. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 62 percent. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 55 percent. North
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ502-251015-
Highland Rim District - South-
Including the counties of Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Hickman, Lawrence,
Lewis, Lincoln, Marshall, Maury, Moore, Perry, and Wayne
214 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover MCldy MCldy MCldy PCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 52 (+11) 66 (-2) 43 58
RH % (24H Trend) 89 (+17) 66 (+29) 85 37
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 6-10 N 9-13
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 5-9 NW 8-12 N 9-13 N 9-13
Precip Chance (%) 70 70 30 10
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Showers None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.29 0.17 0.01 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 3 4 1 0
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 10 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1300 1400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4300 4600
Transport Wnd (M/S) W 7 NE 7
Transport Wnd (MPH) W 16 NE 16
Dispersion Index
LAL 5 5 3 1
Haines Index
Maximum LVORI
RH Recovery Moderate Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH
43 percent. Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds
up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Minimum RH 38 percent.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70.
Minimum RH 45 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower
50s. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH 60 percent. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum
RH 48 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ400-251015-
Cumberland District - North-
Including the counties of Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb,
Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith,
Trousdale, Warren, and White
214 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover MCldy MCldy MCldy MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 50 (+12) 62 (-6) 40 56
RH % (24H Trend) 84 (+15) 68 (+38) 85 38
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 5-9 NE 8-12
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 5-9 NW 6-10 N 9-13 N 9-13
Precip Chance (%) 60 70 40 10
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.17 0.28 0.02 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 2 8 1 0
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 10 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1400 1200
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4600 3800
Transport Wnd (M/S) W 7 NE 7
Transport Wnd (MPH) W 16 NE 15
Dispersion Index
LAL 2 2 2 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 4
Maximum LVORI
RH Recovery Moderate Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH
43 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. South winds up to
5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH
38 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 70.
Minimum RH 43 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows around 50.
Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH 58 percent. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of showers 50 percent.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Cooler. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in
the upper 50s. Minimum RH 57 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
Chance of showers 60 percent.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System