National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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Hourly Weather Forecast Fire Weather Planning Forecast
Hourly Forecast

 


092
FNUS54 KOHX 281002
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
502 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Fire weather concerns remain low over the next 7 days. Southerly
winds will gust to around 20 to 25 miles per hour today as moisture
increases ahead of a cold front. Rain and storms are expected this
evening into early Sunday morning, followed by drier conditions
Sunday afternoon and Monday. The next chance for rain will arrive on
Tuesday with more rain-free weather mid to late week.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-282230-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
502 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 82 (0) 57 (-8) 69
RH % (24H Trend) 56 (-2) 89 (+1) 38
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 10-14 G20 W 10-14 G21
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 10-14 G20 S 10-14 G20 W 10-14 G21
Precip Chance (%) 20 70 10
Precip Type None Tstms None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.01 0.32 0.02
Precip Dur (HR) 4
Precip Begin 3 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 7 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1300 1600
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4200 5300
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 10 W 10
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 23 W 23
Dispersion Index 56 17 68
LAL 3 4 1
Haines Index 4 3 4
Maximum LVORI 6 6 6
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds up
to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH
39 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 40s. Northeast winds up to 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the upper 50s. Minimum RH 73 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 52 percent. Northwest winds
up to 10 mph. Chance of showers 50 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. Minimum RH 48 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 60.
Minimum RH 50 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-282230-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
502 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 80 (0) 60 (-3) 69
RH % (24H Trend) 53 (-1) 93 (+5) 38
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 8-12 W 10-14 G20
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 9-13 S 9-13 W 10-14 G20
Precip Chance (%) 10 70 30
Precip Type None Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.35 0.07
Precip Dur (HR) 4 1
Precip Begin 9 PM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 10 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1400 1700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4600 5600
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 10 W 11
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 22 W 25
Dispersion Index 54 16 78
LAL 1 4 3
Haines Index 4 3 4
Maximum LVORI 6 6 6
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds up
to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 40 percent.
Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the upper 50s. Minimum RH 70 percent. East winds up to 5 mph. Chance
of precipitation 90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 54 percent. Northwest winds up to
5 mph. Chance of showers 60 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 60.
Minimum RH 49 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper
50s. Minimum RH 49 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-282230-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
502 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Mclear
Temp (24H Trend) 81 (-2) 57 (-8) 71
RH % (24H Trend) 59 (+9) 91 (+2) 36
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 9-13 W 8-12
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 9-13 G20 S 8-12 W 8-12
Precip Chance (%) 10 70 10
Precip Type None Tstms None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.29 0.03
Precip Dur (HR) 4
Precip Begin 3 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 7 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1400 1400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4600 4500
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 11 W 9
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 24 W 21
Dispersion Index 56 16 55
LAL 1 4 1
Haines Index 4 4 4
Maximum LVORI 6 6 6
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds up
to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. Minimum RH
40 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 50s. East winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 60s. Minimum RH 73 percent. East winds up to 5 mph
shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 60.
Minimum RH 51 percent. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. Minimum RH 48 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. Minimum RH 48 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-282230-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
502 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 79 (-2) 59 (-4) 71
RH % (24H Trend) 57 (+6) 95 (+6) 38
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 8-12 W 8-12
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 9-13 S 9-13 W 9-13
Precip Chance (%) 10 70 30
Precip Type None Tstms Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.31 0.07
Precip Dur (HR) 4 1
Precip Begin 9 PM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 10 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1200 1700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 4000 5700
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 10 W 10
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 22 W 23
Dispersion Index 48 16 62
LAL 1 4 3
Haines Index 4 3 3
Maximum LVORI 6 5 6
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds up
to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH
41 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 50. Northeast winds up
to 5 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs
around 60. Minimum RH 74 percent. East winds around 5 mph shifting
to the south up to 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the mid
40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 54 percent. Northwest winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of showers 50 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 60s.
Minimum RH 49 percent. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. Minimum RH 48 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System