National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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Hourly Forecast

 


000
FNUS54 KOHX 221011
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
511 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Convection is currently confined to the MS river area at this hour.
Main surface low is over the northern plains so the pre frontal
forcing is a good distance to the east. Models in agreement with
positive omega deterioration into the post dawn hours. 700-500mb
directional flow will take the convection toward the northeast.
Thus, the eastward transfer of shower and tstm activity looks rather
limited. So, pops for today will only cover west and northwest
sections and will only be in the 20-40 percent range.

High pressure aloft to dominate through the remainder of the
forecast period. Thus, warm and dry weather with moderate humidity
levels can be expected.

TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-231200-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, and Waverly
511 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Today Tonight Thu

Cloud Cover PCldy MClear MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 87 (-2) 67 (+2) 90
RH % (24H Trend) 54 (+9) 89 (+2) 47
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 9-13 SW 7-11
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 9-13 S 6-10 SW 7-11
Precip Chance (%) 20 10 10
Precip Type Tstms None None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.01 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 1 0 0
Precip Begin 6 AM
Precip End 6 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 2000 2300
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 6500 7700
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 11 SW 9
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 25 SW 20
Dispersion Index 66 2 63
LAL 3 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 2 2
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Southwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds up
to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH
41 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 42 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 41 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 40 percent. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-231200-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
511 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Today Tonight Thu

Cloud Cover MClear MClear MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 88 (+2) 65 (+3) 87
RH % (24H Trend) 43 (+2) 87 (-3) 48
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 8-12 SW 6-10
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 8-12 S 4-8 SW 6-10
Precip Chance (%) 10 0 0
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 0
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 2700 2400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 8700 7700
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 11 SW 8
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 24 SW 18
Dispersion Index 109 1 60
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 2 1 2
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
50 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 39 percent.
West winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs around 90.
Minimum RH 38 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the
lower 90s. Minimum RH 39 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 38 percent. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-231200-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
511 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Today Tonight Thu

Cloud Cover PCldy MClear MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 88 (0) 66 (+1) 89
RH % (24H Trend) 50 (+5) 91 (+1) 44
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 S 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 S 4-8 SW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 10 10
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 0 0 0
Precip Begin 1 PM
Precip End 2 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 2300 2400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 7500 8000
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 9 SW 8
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 21 SW 18
Dispersion Index 67 2 57
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 3
Maximum LVORI 2 1 2
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds up
to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
52 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds up
to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH
39 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 38 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 38 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 38 percent. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-231200-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
511 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Today Tonight Thu

Cloud Cover MClear Clear MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 87 (0) 64 (+2) 87
RH % (24H Trend) 42 (+1) 88 (-5) 48
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 S 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 S 3-7 SW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 10 0 0
Precip Type None None None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 0
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 2500 2500
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 8200 8100
Transport Wnd (M/S) S 9 SW 7
Transport Wnd (MPH) S 21 SW 15
Dispersion Index 90 1 55
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 3
Maximum LVORI 2 1 2
RH Recovery Moderate

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds up
to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
52 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 40 percent.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs around 90.
Minimum RH 38 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the
lower 90s. Minimum RH 38 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 38 percent. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

21

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System