National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 142009
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
209 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Chances for mixed precipitation tonight through the day Thursday will
keep min RH values above 50 percent. Drier conditions will return
Friday through the weekend, when min RH values during the afternoon
hours will get down to the 50 percent range. Northerly winds around
10 to 15 mph today will become more westerly Thursday also around 10
to 15 mph. Winds will calm below 10 mph Thursday night.


TNZ501-151015-
Highland Rim District - North-
Including the Counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston,
Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Stewart, Sumner,
Williamson, and Wilson
209 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Tonight Thu Thu Night Fri

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy PCldy MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 32 (+3) 36 (-2) 29 52
RH % (24H Trend) 99 (+7) 84 (+1) 96 57
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 6-10 SW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) NE 8-12 W 7-11 W 6-10 SW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 90 30 10 0
Precip Type Snow/fz Ra Snow/fz Ra Frz Rain None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.53 0.02 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 10 1 1
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 11 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1000 600
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3100 2000
Transport Wnd (M/S) W 8 W 7
Transport Wnd (MPH) W 17 W 16
Dispersion Index 10 40 22 11
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 1 2 9 10
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds up
to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
63 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds
up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
64 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 63 percent. North winds
up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Highs in the lower 50s.
Minimum RH 57 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
50s. Minimum RH 58 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ502-151015-
Highland Rim District - South-
Including the Counties of Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Hickman, Lawrence,
Lewis, Lincoln, Marshall, Maury, Moore, Perry, and Wayne
209 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Tonight Thu Thu Night Fri

Cloud Cover MCldy MCldy PCldy MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 30 (-1) 37 (-1) 28 54
RH % (24H Trend) 100 (+6) 79 (-7) 91 54
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) W 6-10 SW 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) N 6-10 W 7-11 W 4-8 SW 3-7
Precip Chance (%) 90 20 10 0
Precip Type Snow/fz Ra Frz Rain None None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.32 0.01 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 8 1 0
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 8 PM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1000 600
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3200 1900
Transport Wnd (M/S) W 8 W 6
Transport Wnd (MPH) W 18 W 14
Dispersion Index 11 40 15 11
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 2 3 9 10
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds up to
5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Minimum RH 60 percent.
Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
61 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 66 percent. North winds up to
5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
50s. Minimum RH 57 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper
50s. Minimum RH 58 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ400-151015-
Cumberland District - North-
Including the Counties of Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb,
Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith,
Trousdale, Warren, and White
209 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Tonight Thu Thu Night Fri

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 36 (+4) 38 (-2) 28 50
RH % (24H Trend) 98 (+1) 89 (+4) 96 53
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 4-8 SW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) NE 8-12 W 7-11 W 7-11 SW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 100 50 30 0
Precip Type Rain Snow/fz Ra Frz Rain None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.88 0.02 0.01 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 12 2 1
Precip Begin 6 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing 2 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 900 700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3000 2200
Transport Wnd (M/S) W 8 W 7
Transport Wnd (MPH) W 17 W 15
Dispersion Index 6 28 31 16
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 0 2 3 2
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds up
to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH
58 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
62 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 69 percent. North winds
up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower
50s. Minimum RH 56 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
50s. Minimum RH 59 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System