National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 152022
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
222 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A wet and unsettled pattern will continue over the forecast period.
Gulf moisture will continue its ongoing availability as the
subtropical jet remains active. A series of low pressure systems
will move eastward with the 1st system occurring tonight. Other
systems will follow on Sunday and again on Tuesday. Rainfall totals
over the next 7 days look like they could be as high as 4 to 5 inches
across the Cumberland and Highland Rim south district. Areas across
the northern highland rim district looks like as much as 2 to 4
inches.

TNZ501-161200-
Highland Rim District - North-
Including the Counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston,
Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Stewart, Sumner,
Williamson, and Wilson
222 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 32 (-16) 45 (-7) 38 56
RH % (24H Trend) 92 (+5) 62 (-9) 97 75
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) NE 7-11 SW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) NE 7-11 NE 3-7 LGT/VAR W 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 100 0 40 40
Precip Type Frz Rain None Showers Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.48 0.00 0.04 0.03
Precip Dur (HR) 8 2 2
Precip Begin 6 PM 8 PM Continuing
Precip End 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 1000 1000
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 3100 3200
Transport Wnd (M/S) NE 2 W 11
Transport Wnd (MPH) NE 3 W 25
Dispersion Index 20 15 2 9
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 3 2 2
Maximum LVORI 2 2 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.
Minimum RH 56 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
71 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers
70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in
the upper 50s. Minimum RH 81 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
Chance of showers 90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 64 percent.
Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
around 40. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 73 percent. East winds
up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ502-161200-
Highland Rim District - South-
Including the Counties of Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Hickman, Lawrence,
Lewis, Lincoln, Marshall, Maury, Moore, Perry, and Wayne
222 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 35 (-15) 48 (-9) 40 60
RH % (24H Trend) 93 (+3) 62 (-13) 98 74
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) N 6-10 SW 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) NE 7-11 NE 3-7 LGT/VAR W 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 100 0 40 50
Precip Type Frz Rain None Showers Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.54 0.00 0.07 0.05
Precip Dur (HR) 8 2 2
Precip Begin 6 PM 8 PM Continuing
Precip End 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 900 900
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 2900 2900
Transport Wnd (M/S) N 2 W 11
Transport Wnd (MPH) N 3 W 25
Dispersion Index 14 13 2 14
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 3 2 2
Maximum LVORI 2 2 0 0
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 53 percent. North winds
up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH
74 percent. East winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 60. Minimum
RH 81 percent. North winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers near
100 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 64 percent.
Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs around 60. Minimum RH 72 percent. East winds up
to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ400-161200-
Cumberland District - North-
Including the Counties of Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb,
Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith,
Trousdale, Warren, and White
222 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 35 (-15) 45 (-12) 37 56
RH % (24H Trend) 95 (+8) 66 (-3) 96 81
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) NE 8-12 SW 14-18
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) NE 7-11 NE 4-8 E 4-8 SW 12-16
Precip Chance (%) 100 0 50 50
Precip Type Frz Rain None Showers Showers
Precip Amount (IN) 0.56 0.00 0.03 0.10
Precip Dur (HR) 9 2 2
Precip Begin 6 PM 9 PM Continuing
Precip End 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 900 200
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 2800 700
Transport Wnd (M/S) N 3 SW 11
Transport Wnd (MPH) N 6 SW 25
Dispersion Index 13 12 1 5
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 2 2
Maximum LVORI 2 2 2 0
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 57 percent. Northwest
winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 50. Minimum RH 73 percent.
East winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s.
Minimum RH 83 percent. Southeast winds up to 5 mph. Chance of
showers near 100 percent.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 67 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
Chance of showers 70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 74 percent.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.

$$

21

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System