National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 162007
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
207 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

While it will be dry until at least Wednesday afternoon, winds will
be light and fire weather concerns will remain low. Showers will make
their way into Middle Tennessee Wednesday night and Thursday and
linger into the weekend. Temperatures will be slightly above normal
for most of the work week.


TNZ501-171030-
Highland Rim District - North-
Including the Counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston,
Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Stewart, Sumner,
Williamson, and Wilson
207 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover MClear MClear MClear PCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 34 (-5) 55 (-4) 30 52
RH % (24H Trend) 98 (+1) 51 (-3) 95 49
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 0 0 0 0
Precip Type None None None None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 200 200
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 700 500
Transport Wnd (M/S) NW 5 S 1
Transport Wnd (MPH) NW 12 S 2
Dispersion Index 1 3 2 1
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 4 4 4 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 4 3
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds
up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 60 percent. South winds up to
5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Not as cool. Lows in the mid 40s.
South winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
80 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers
70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers, colder. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower
40s. Minimum RH 77 percent. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of
showers 80 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs around 50.
Minimum RH 59 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
40s. Minimum RH 58 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ502-171030-
Highland Rim District - South-
Including the Counties of Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Hickman, Lawrence,
Lewis, Lincoln, Marshall, Maury, Moore, Perry, and Wayne
207 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover PCldy MClear PCldy MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 35 (-5) 56 (-2) 31 54
RH % (24H Trend) 98 (-1) 51 (-6) 96 49
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 0 0 0 0
Precip Type None None None None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 200 200
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 800 700
Transport Wnd (M/S) N 5 S 2
Transport Wnd (MPH) N 12 S 3
Dispersion Index 1 4 2 2
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 4 4 4 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 4 3
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Southeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 50s. Minimum RH 61 percent. South winds up to
5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds
up to 5 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
78 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers
70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Colder. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. Minimum RH 75 percent. Northwest
winds up to 10 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower
50s. Minimum RH 58 percent. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s.
Minimum RH 57 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ400-171030-
Cumberland District - North-
Including the Counties of Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb,
Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith,
Trousdale, Warren, and White
207 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Tonight Mon Mon Night Tue

Cloud Cover PCldy MClear MClear MClear
Temp (24H Trend) 34 (-6) 53 (+1) 29 51
RH % (24H Trend) 99 (-1) 53 (-19) 94 48
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) W 3-7 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) W 4-8 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 0 0 0 0
Precip Type None None None None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (HR)
Precip Begin
Precip End
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 500 400
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 1600 1400
Transport Wnd (M/S) NW 4 S 1
Transport Wnd (MPH) NW 9 S 1
Dispersion Index 5 6 2 1
LAL 1 1 1 1
Haines Index 4 4 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 7 7
RH Recovery Excellent Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds
up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
58 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH
81 percent. South winds up to 5 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers, colder. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower
40s. Minimum RH 79 percent. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of
showers 80 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow or rain. Lows
around 30. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 61 percent. West winds
up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
40s. Minimum RH 59 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System