National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

Fire Weather Forecast Area
Click the map above for the latest Fire Weather Forecast

See more products below

 

Request a SPOT Forecast

 

 

 
Fire Weather Forecasts
7-Day Forecasts Current Local Radar

Hourly Forecast

 

 

Current Local Radar
Hourly Weather Forecast Fire Weather Planning Forecast
Hourly Forecast

 


000
FNUS54 KOHX 150828
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
328 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level axis will shift to the east of the mid state by late
afternoon. Still looking at favorable cape to cap ratios late today
but moisture levels will be on the decrease, especially to the west
of the Plateau. Furthermore, net subsidence should be the rule
across western and central areas. Therefore, rainfall chances will
only be included across the Plateau today, with max values of just 40
percent.

On Sunday, a fropa will occur. Moisture is rather limited so just 20
percent chance of showers and tstms will be included.

In the ext fcst, upper troughing to persist through the period. This
will be accompanies by off and on 20-40 percent chances of showers
and possible thunderstorm.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-161200-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
328 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 87 (+1) 69 (0) 86
RH % (24H Trend) 58 (-7) 94 (-4) 59
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 4-8 NW 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 4-8 N 4-8 NW 6-10
Precip Chance (%) 10 0 20
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.02
Precip Dur (hr) 1 1
Precip Begin 6 AM 12 PM
Precip End 3 PM 6 PM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1800 1800
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5800 6100
Transport Wnd (m/s) N 6 NW 5
Transport Wnd (mph) N 13 NW 10
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 11140 8782
Category Day 4 4
Dispersion Index 41 6 30
LAL 1 1 2
Haines Index 3 4 4
Maximum LVORI 10 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up to
5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
50 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up to
5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 53 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 57 percent. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum
RH 58 percent. East winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
59 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-161200-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
328 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 84 (+1) 69 (+1) 84
RH % (24H Trend) 65 (-2) 90 (-8) 62
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 4-8 N 4-8 NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 40 10 20
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.06 0.00 0.01
Precip Dur (hr) 2 1
Precip Begin 6 AM 12 PM
Precip End 6 PM Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1600 1800
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5400 6100
Transport Wnd (m/s) N 6 NW 4
Transport Wnd (mph) N 13 NW 9
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 10552 7106
Category Day 4 3
Dispersion Index 33 6 22
LAL 3 1 2
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 8 8
RH Recovery Poor

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up to
5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 53 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. A chance of showers. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 60 percent. Northeast winds
up to 5 mph. Chance of showers 30 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 80s.
Minimum RH 58 percent. East winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum
RH 62 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-161200-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
328 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Pcldy Mclear Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 89 (+3) 70 (0) 88
RH % (24H Trend) 55 (-10) 90 (-7) 57
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 4-8 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 4-8 N 4-8 NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 20 0 20
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.00 0.00 0.02
Precip Dur (hr) 1 1
Precip Begin 6 AM 12 PM
Precip End 3 PM 6 PM
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1800 1800
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5800 5900
Transport Wnd (m/s) N 6 NW 5
Transport Wnd (mph) N 14 NW 12
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 11783 10562
Category Day 4 4
Dispersion Index 43 7 29
LAL 3 1 2
Haines Index 3 4 4
Maximum LVORI 10 7 8
RH Recovery Poor

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up to
5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH
47 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds
up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 48 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. A chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent. Northeast winds up to
5 mph. Chance of showers 30 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
57 percent. East winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
59 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-161200-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
328 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Today Tonight Sun

Cloud Cover Mcldy Mclear Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 84 (+1) 69 (0) 86
RH % (24H Trend) 63 (-3) 87 (-10) 58
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) NW 3-7 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) N 4-8 N 4-8 NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 30 10 20
Precip Type Tstms None Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.06 0.00 0.00
Precip Dur (hr) 2 0
Precip Begin 6 AM 2 PM
Precip End 6 PM Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1600 1600
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5200 5200
Transport Wnd (m/s) N 7 NW 4
Transport Wnd (mph) N 15 NW 8
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 11242 6866
Category Day 4 3
Dispersion Index 35 7 26
LAL 3 1 2
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 6 7
RH Recovery Poor

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. North winds up
to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds
up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 46 percent. North winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. A chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 57 percent. Northeast winds up to
5 mph. Chance of showers 30 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
57 percent. Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum
RH 61 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

21

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System