National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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000
FNUS54 KOHX 171052
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
452 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Rain will overspread all of Middle Tennessee today, and cannot rule
out a couple of thunderstorms as well. Rain will end from west to
east tonight, with cool and dry conditions anticipated for Friday.
Heavier rain and some thunderstorms will arrive late Friday night
into Saturday and continue much of the day, with rainfall totals
between 1 and 3 inches expected. An Arctic cold front will bring much
colder air into the area Saturday night, with rain changing to light
snow before ending Sunday morning. Light snow accumulations are
possible, especially along and north of I-40. Cold but dry weather
will continue through Monday before a quick warmup commences on
Tuesday. Yet more rain is expected for Wednesday.


TNZ501-172245-
Highland Rim District - North-
Including the Counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston,
Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Rutherford, Stewart, Sumner,
Williamson, and Wilson
452 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 49 (+2) 40 (+3) 50
RH % (24H Trend) 79 (+9) 95 (+3) 70
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) SW 7-11 W 4-8 LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 90 50 10
Precip Type Showers Showers None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.28 0.03 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 11 2 0
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 5 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 300 500
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 800 1600
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 12 SW 3
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 26 SW 7
Dispersion Index 9 5 4
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 3 3
Maximum LVORI 0 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the mid
40s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent.
.SATURDAY...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the
upper 50s. Minimum RH 76 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely or a chance of snow. Colder. Lows in
the mid 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation
70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Scattered flurries. Much colder. Highs in
the lower 30s. Minimum RH 48 percent. North winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 17. Highs in
the upper 30s. Minimum RH 37 percent. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of rain. Not as cool.
Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
64 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in
the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. Minimum RH 63 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ502-172245-
Highland Rim District - South-
Including the Counties of Bedford, Giles, Hardin, Hickman, Lawrence,
Lewis, Lincoln, Marshall, Maury, Moore, Perry, and Wayne
452 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 49 (-1) 43 (+6) 53
RH % (24H Trend) 83 (+21) 99 (+7) 72
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 6-10 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 SW 4-8 LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 90 50 10
Precip Type Showers Showers None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.34 0.03 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 11 2 0
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 4 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 200 700
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 700 2400
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 13 SW 3
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 29 SW 7
Dispersion Index 8 3 6
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 3 4
Maximum LVORI 0 8 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 40s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent.
.SATURDAY...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 60.
Minimum RH 77 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely or a chance of snow. Colder. Lows in
the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation
70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Scattered flurries. Much colder. Highs in
the mid 30s. Minimum RH 48 percent. North winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 18. Highs
around 40. Minimum RH 38 percent. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 69 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in
the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. Minimum RH 61 percent. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ400-172245-
Cumberland District - North-
Including the Counties of Cannon, Clay, Cumberland, DeKalb,
Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Putnam, Smith,
Trousdale, Warren, and White
452 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy
Temp (24H Trend) 46 (+3) 41 (+7) 50
RH % (24H Trend) 79 (+4) 98 (+6) 76
AM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 6-10 LGT/VAR
PM 20FT Wnd (MPH) S 7-11 SW 7-11 LGT/VAR
Precip Chance (%) 90 60 10
Precip Type Showers Showers None
Precip Amount (IN) 0.31 0.06 0.00
Precip Dur (HR) 9 4 0
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing
Precip End Continuing 6 AM
Mixing Hgt (M-MSL) 300 800
Mixing Hgt (FT-MSL) 900 2500
Transport Wnd (M/S) SW 12 SW 3
Transport Wnd (MPH) SW 26 SW 6
Dispersion Index 9 4 6
LAL 1 1 1
Haines Index 2 2 3
Maximum LVORI 0 8 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the
upper 50s. Minimum RH 77 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Colder. Lows in the upper
20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Much
colder. Highs in the lower 30s. Minimum RH 55 percent. North winds
5 to 15 mph.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 14. Highs in
the mid 30s. Minimum RH 35 percent. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of rain. Not as cool.
Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH
57 percent. South winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in
the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. Minimum RH 71 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System