National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Middle Tennessee Fire Weather

 

The National Weather Service Fire Weather Program emerged in response to a need for weather support to large and dangerous wildfires. This service is provided to federal and state land management agencies for the prevention, suppression, and management of forest and rangeland fires. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Nashville provides year-round fire weather forecasts for most of Middle Tennessee. Routine fire weather forecasts are issued daily for Tennessee Division of Forestry Districts 4 and 5.

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393
FNUS54 KOHX 090730
FWFOHX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Middle Tennessee
National Weather Service Nashville TN
230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...

More scattered storms can be expected today and Friday. Storms on
Saturday will be more isolated in comparison. Storms on Sunday will
once again be scattered to numerous before the forecast begins to
dry out starting on Monday. Dew points through the forecast will be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s leading to min RH values to be no less
than the mid 40s. Winds will shift to the WNW/NW and increase to
around 10 mph tomorrow as an upper wave swing through the area.


TNZ005>008-023>028-059-062-092215-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Houston-Humphreys-Montgomery-Robertson-
Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson-Wilson-
Including the cities of Ashland City, Brentwood, Clarksville,
Dickson, Dover, Erin, Franklin, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Hendersonville, Kingston Springs, La Vergne, Lebanon, McEwen,
Mount Juliet, Murfreesboro, Nashville, New Johnsonville, Smyrna,
Springfield, Tennessee Ridge, and Waverly
230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 91 (+2) 73 (+2) 89
RH % (24H Trend) 59 (+4) 99 (-1) 60
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR W 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 30 30 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.02 0.06 0.14
Precip Dur (hr) 1 1 2
Precip Begin 9 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 2200 2100
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 7300 6700
Transport Wnd (m/s) S 2 SW 6
Transport Wnd (mph) S 3 SW 13
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 3478 12423
Category Day 2 4
Dispersion Index 12 4 35
LAL 3 3 4
Haines Index 3 4 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 48 percent. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. West winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s.
Minimum RH 60 percent. West winds up to 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the upper
80s. Minimum RH 51 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 47 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Highs in the mid 90s.
Minimum RH 46 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-078-080-092215-
Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Overton-
Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Including the cities of Allardt, Byrdstown, Carthage, Celina,
Cookeville, Crossville, Gainesboro, Gordonsville, Hartsville,
Jamestown, Lafayette, Livingston, McMinnville, Smithville,
South Carthage, Sparta, Spencer, and Woodbury
230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 89 (+3) 71 (+2) 87
RH % (24H Trend) 60 (+3) 99 (-1) 63
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR SW 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR W 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 40 30 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.08 0.05 0.17
Precip Dur (hr) 2 1 3
Precip Begin 9 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 2300 1700
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 7500 5700
Transport Wnd (m/s) E 2 SW 5
Transport Wnd (mph) E 3 SW 12
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 4566 9830
Category Day 2 4
Dispersion Index 12 3 32
LAL 3 3 4
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Northwest winds up to
5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. West winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 56 percent. West
winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum
RH 54 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper
80s. Minimum RH 48 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 45 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-076-092>096-092215-
Bedford-Giles-Hardin-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Lincoln-Marshall-Maury-
Moore-Perry-Wayne-
Including the cities of Centerville, Clifton, Columbia,
Fayetteville, Hohenwald, Lawrenceburg, Lewisburg, Linden,
Lobelville, Lynchburg, Olive Hill, Pickwick Dam, Pulaski, Savannah,
Shelbyville, and Waynesboro
230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 90 (+1) 73 (+3) 89
RH % (24H Trend) 61 (+4) 100 (0) 61
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR W 4-8
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 30 30 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.01 0.01 0.10
Precip Dur (hr) 1 1 2
Precip Begin 9 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1800 1900
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 5900 6100
Transport Wnd (m/s) S 2 SW 6
Transport Wnd (mph) S 3 SW 14
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 3343 14246
Category Day 2 4
Dispersion Index 11 4 34
LAL 3 3 4
Haines Index 3 4 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. West winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s.
Minimum RH 63 percent. West winds up to 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Minimum RH 53 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 48 percent. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Highs in the mid 90s.
Minimum RH 48 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079-097-092215-
Coffee-Franklin-Grundy-
Including the cities of Altamont, Coalmont, Cowan, Decherd,
Estill Springs, Manchester, Sewanee, Tullahoma, and Winchester
230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Today Tonight Fri

Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Temp (24H Trend) 88 (+2) 71 (+3) 87
RH % (24H Trend) 63 (+2) 99 (-1) 64
AM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR W 3-7
PM 20FT Wnd (mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 4-8
Precip Chance (%) 40 40 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
Precip Amount (in) 0.13 0.03 0.22
Precip Dur (hr) 2 1 3
Precip Begin 9 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt (m-msl) 1900 1700
Mixing Hgt (ft-msl) 6100 5600
Transport Wnd (m/s) W 2 SW 5
Transport Wnd (mph) W 3 SW 12
Vent Rate (m/s-m) 3589 9262
Category Day 2 4
Dispersion Index 11 3 30
LAL 3 3 4
Haines Index 3 3 3
Maximum LVORI 10 10 10
RH Recovery Excellent

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Northwest winds up to
5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 49 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Northwest winds up to
5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s.
Minimum RH 59 percent. West winds up to 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum
RH 55 percent. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper
80s. Minimum RH 49 percent. West winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower
90s. Minimum RH 46 percent. South winds up to 5 mph.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 1-2 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

The following links also pertain to fire weather:

Smoke Dispersion Index
Fire Terms and Definitions

Keetch-Byram Drought Index
National Interagency Fire Center
NOAA's Drought Information Center
Palmer Index
Storm Prediction Center's Fire Weather Forecasts
Tennessee Division of Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Wildland Fire Assessment System