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GFS MOS 2009 Refresh Evaluation

New MOS forecast equations based on output from NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS) Model have been developed for selected weather elements: Max and Min Temperature, 2-m Temperature, Dewpoint Temperature, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Wind Gust, 24-h Snowfall Amount, Precipitation Type, Ceiling Height, and Sky Cover.

Element Cool Season Warm Season
Maximum Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Minimum Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
2-m Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Dewpoint Temperature
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Bias - All Sites
Bias - CONUS
Bias - Alaska

MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska
Wind Speed
MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score - Alaska
MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Heidke Skill Score - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score - Alaska
Wind Direction
MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Cumulative Rel. Freq. - All Sites
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - CONUS
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - Alaska
MAE - All Sites
MAE - CONUS
MAE - Alaska

Cumulative Rel. Freq. - All Sites
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - CONUS
Cumulative Rel. Freq. - Alaska
Wind Gust
Probability of Detection (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Intensity ≥ 38 knots) - All Sites

False Alarm Ratio (Gust Event) - All Sites

Heidke Skill Score (Gust Intensities) - All Sites
Probability of Detection (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Event) - All Sites

Threat Score (Gust Intensity ≥ 38 knots) - All Sites

False Alarm Ratio (Gust Event) - All Sites

Heidke Skill Score (Gust Intensities) - All Sites
24-h Snowfall Amount
Cool Season ONLY

Bias 06Z Window - All Sites
Bias 06Z Window - CONUS
Bias 06Z Window - Alaska
Bias 18Z Window - All Sites
Bias 18Z Window - CONUS
Bias 18Z Window - Alaska

Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 06Z Window - All Sites
Heidke SS Imp. Snow Cat. 18Z Window - All Sites

P-Score Imp. Snow Prob. 06Z Window - All Sites
P-Score Imp. Snow Prob. 06Z Window - CONUS
P-Score Imp. Snow Prob. 06Z Window - Alaska
P-Score Imp. Snow Prob. 18Z Window - All Sites
P-Score Imp. Snow Prob. 18Z Window - CONUS
P-Score Imp. Snow Prob. 18Z Window - Alaska
Precipitation Type
Cool Season ONLY

Bias (MAV) - CONUS
Bias (MAV) - Alaska

Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score (MAV) - Alaska
Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - CONUS
Heidke Skill Score (MEX) - Alaska

P-Score (MAV) - CONUS
P-Score (MAV) - Alaska
P-Score (MEX) - CONUS
P-Score (MEX) - Alaska
Ceiling Height Heidke Skill Score - All Sites Heidke Skill Score - All Sites
Sky Cover Heidke Skill Score - CONUS Heidke Skill Score - CONUS


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Office Of Science and Technology
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Statistical Modeling Branch
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
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Page last Modified: Monday, 04 January 2010 18:43 UTC