RFC Short-Term Ensemble Workshop Agenda

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RFC Short-Term Ensemble Workshop Agenda (Updated Nov 28)

Nov 28-30, 2006

NOAA/NWS/Office of Hydrologic Development
1325 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910

Nov 28, 2006 (Tue) SSMC2 Rm 8246

Introduction
09:00 – 09:10 am	Welcoming remark	Gary Carter
09:10 – 09:20 am	Workshop objectives	Geoffrey Bonnin
09:20 – 09:30 am	Logistics, Overview of Agenda	DJ Seo, Satish Regonda
RFC/Region Presentations (Chair Julie Demargne)
09:30 – 09:50 am	MARFC	Ned Pryor
09:50 – 10:10 am	OHRFC	Tom Adams
10:10 – 10:30 am	CNRFC	Eric Strem
10:30 – 10:50 am	Break
10:50 – 11:10 am	NCRFC	Mike DeWeese
11:10 – 11:30 am	WR	Kevin Werner
Status Update (Co-Chairs Ned Pryor, Eric Strem)
11:30 – 11:50 am	Overview of Short-term Ensemble Activities	DJ Seo
11:50 – 01:00 pm	Lunch
01:00 – 01:20 am	Ensemble Pre-Processor (EPP)	DJ Seo, Limin Wu
01:20 – 01:50 pm	Ensemble Hindcaster	Julie Demargne
02:10 – 02:20 pm	Break
02:20 – 02:40 pm	Verification Team activities	Julie Demargne
02:40 – 03:10 pm	Ensemble verification	DJ Seo, Julie Demargne
03:10 – 03:30 pm	Ensemble Post-Processor	DJ Seo, Satish Regonda
03:30 – 03:50 pm	Probabilistic flood mapping STEWksp_Prob_flood_mapping JB_flood_future	DJ Seo, Satish Regonda
03:50 – 04:10 pm	Q&A, discussion	All
04:10 – 04:20 pm	Break
04:20 – 04:40 pm	VAR	DJ Seo, Haksu Lee (Moved)
05:00 – 05:30 pm	Data Assimilator (DA) for Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM)	DJ Seo, Haksu Lee (Moved)
03:50 – 04:10 pm	Q&A, discussion	All
05:30 pm	Adjourn

Nov 29, 2006 (Wed) SSMC2 Rm 8246

Presentations by New Personnel (Chair Tom Adams)
08:30 – 09:00 am	Data uncertainties	James Brown
09:00 – 09:30 am	Statistical ensemble seasonal forecasting	Satish Regonda
09:30 – 10:00 am	Predictive uncertainty analysis	Haksu Lee
10:00 – 10:20 am	Break
NCEP Presentations (Chair DJ Seo)
10:20 – 10:40 am	Ensemble directions at NCEP	Zoltan Toth
10:40 – 11:00 am	NAEFS and global ensembles	Yuejian Zhu
11:00 – 11:20 am	Short-range ensemble	Jun Du
11:20 – 11:40 am	HPC confidence factor	Jung-Sun Im
11:40 – 11:50 am	Q&A, discussion	All
11:50 – 01:00 pm	Lunch
Data Assimilation
01:00 - 01:20 am	VAR	DJ Seo, Haksu Lee
01:20 – 01:40 pm	Data Assimilator (DA) for Research Distributed Hydrologic Model	DJ Seo, Haksu Lee
Planning
01:40 - 02:20 pm	Short-Term Ensemble Concept of Operations	DJ Seo (lead)
02:20 – 02:30 pm	Q&A, discussion	All
02:30 – 02:40 pm	Break
02:40 – 03:30 pm	Short-Term Ensemble R&D and RTO plan	DJ Seo (lead)
03:30 – 03:50 pm	Q&A, discussion	All
03:50 - 04:00 pm	Break
04:00 – 05:00 pm	Action items	All
05:30 pm	Adjourn
06:00 pm	Group Dinner at Mi Rancho

Nov 30, 2006 (Thu) SSMC2 Rm 8246

Training
08:30 – 08:40 am	Organization of presentations	DJ Seo
08:40 – 09:30 am	Ensemble Pre-Processor	Limin Wu (lead)
09:30 – 09:40 am	Break
09:40 – 10:30 am	Ensemble Hindcaster	Julie Demargne (lead)
10:30 – 11:50 am	Hydrologic verification	Julie Demargne, DJ Seo, Satish Regonda
11:50 – 01:00 pm	Lunch
01:00 – 01:30 am	Interactive Verification Program (IVP)	Hank Herr
01:30 – 03:00 pm	Ensemble verification I	James Brown (lead)
03:00 – 03:10 pm	Break
03:10 – 04:40 pm	Ensemble verification II STEWksp_Training_Verif_Results_ABRFC_EPP2 STEWksp_Training_Verif_Results_ABRFC_GFSvsEPP2 verification_results_precip_abrfc verification_results_precip_marfc verification_results_temp_marfc	James Brown (lead)

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