OHD/HL/HSMB - HEP: Publications and Presentations

Brown, J.D. (2014) Verification of temperature, precipitation and streamflow forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service: an evaluation of the medium-range forecasts with forcing inputs from NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a comparison to the frozen version of NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS). Technical Report prepared by Hydrologic Solutions Limited for the U.S. National Weather Service, Office of Hydrologic Development, 139pp.

Brown, J.D. (2013) Verification of long-range temperature, precipitation and streamflow forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service. Technical Report prepared by Hydrologic Solutions Limited for the U.S. National Weather Service, Office of Hydrologic Development, 128pp.

Regonda, S., Seo, D-J., Lawrence, B., Brown, J.D., and Demargne, J. (2013) Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach. Journal of Hydrology. 497, 463-475.

Brown, J.D. (2013) Verification of temperature, precipitation and streamflow forecasts from the NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): medium-range forecasts with forcing inputs from the frozen version of NCEP's Global Forecast System. Technical Report prepared by Hydrologic Solutions Limited for the US National Weather Service, Office of Hydrologic Development, 133pp.

Lee, H., Seo, D.-J. and Koren, V., 2010. Assimilation of streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data into operational distributed hydrologic models: Effects of uncertainties in the data and initial model soil moisture states. Advances in Water Resources, 34 (2011), 1597-1615.

Liu, Y., J. Brown, J. Demargne, and D.-J. Seo, 2010. A wavelet-based approach to assessing timing errors in hydrologic predictions. Accepted for publication in Journal of Hydrology, 397(2011), 210-224.

Wu, L., Seo, D.-J., Demargne, J., Brown, J., Cong, S., and Schaake, J., 2010. Generation of ensemble precipitation forecast from single-valued quantitative precipitation forecast for hydrologic ensemble prediction. Accepted for publication in Journal of Hydrology, 399(2011), 281-298.

Brown, J.D., Demargne, J., Seo, D-J. and Liu, Y., 2010. The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): a software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25(7), 854-872.

Brown, J.D. and Seo, D-J., 2010. A nonparametric post-processor for bias correcting ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11(3), 642-665.

Demargne, J., Brown, J.D., Liu, Y., Seo, D-J., Wu, l., Toth, Z. and Zhu, Y., 2010. Diagnostic verification of hydrometeorological and hydrologic ensembles. Atmospheric Science Letters, 11 (2), 114-122.

Seo, D.-J., Demargne, J., Wu, L., Liu, Y., Brown, J. D., Regonda, S., and Lee, H., 2010. Hydrologic ensemble prediction for risk-based water resources management and hazard mitigation, 3rd Joint Federal Interagency Conference on Sedimentation and Hydrologic Modeling (JFIC2010), June 27 - July 1, 2010, Las Vegas, NV.

Lee, H., Seo, D.-J., Mckee, P., and Corby, R., 2010., State Updating of Distributed Hydrologic Model via Variational Data Assimilation for Real-time Analysis and Prediction of Streamflow. 3rd Joint Federal Interagency Conference on Sedimentation and Hydrologic Modeling (JFIC2010), June 27 - July 1, 2010, Las Vegas, NV.

Demargne, J., Liu, Y., Brown, J. D., Seo, D.-J., Wu, L., Weerts, A., and Werner, M., 2010. Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcasting & Verification in the U.S. National Weather Service. EGU General Assembly 2010, May 2-7, 2010, Vienna, Austria.

Liu, Y., J. Brown, J. D., Demargne, J., and Seo, D.-J., 2010. Using Wavelet Analysis to Assess Timing Errors in Streamflow Predictions. EGU General Assembly 2010, May 2-7, 2010, Vienna, Austria.

Schaake, J., Pailleux, J., Thielen, J., Arritt, R., Hamill, T., Luo, L., Martin, E., McCollor, D., Pappenberger, F., 2010. Summary of recommendations of the first workshop on postprocessing and downscaling atmospheric forecasts for hydrologic applications held at Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, 15-18, June 2009. Atmospheric Science Letters, 11, 59-63.

Weerts, A. H., Seo, D.-J., Werner, M., and Schaake, J. C., 2010. Operational hydrologic ensemble forecasting. Chapter to appear in Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management, K. Beven and J. Hall, Editors.

Demargne, J., M. Mullusky, K. Werner, T. Adams, S. Lindsey, N. Schwein, W. Marosi, and E. Welles, 2009. Application of forecast verification science to operational river forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(6), 779-784.

Seo, D.-J., Cajina, L., Corby, R., and Howieson, T., 2009. Automatic State Updating for Operational Streamflow Forecasting via Variational Data Assimilation. Journal of Hydrology, 367, 255-275.

Demargne J, Wu L, Seo DJ, Schaake J. 2007. Experimental hydrometeorological and hydrologic ensemble forecasts and their verification in the U.S. National Weather Service. Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management (Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007). IAHS Publication 313: 177-187.

Schaake, J., Demargne, J., Hartman, R., Mullusky, M., Welles, E., Wu, L., Herr, H., Fan, X., and Seo, D.-J., 2007a: Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts. Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences Discussions, 4, 655-717.

Schaake, J., T. M. Hamill, and R. Buizza, 2007b. HEPEX, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1541-1547.

Seo, D.-J., Herr, H., and Schaake, J., 2006. A statistical post-processor for accounting of hydrologic uncertainty in short-range ensemble streamflow prediction. Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences Discussions, 3, pp 1987-2035.

Seo, D. J., Koren, V., and Cajina, N., 2003. Real-time variational assimilation of 18 hydrologic and hydrometeorological data into operational hydrologic forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4(3), 627-641.