PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1100 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016 ...SECOND SPRING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE SECOND OF TWO PLANNED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS PROVIDING SPRING SNOWMELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR THIS COMING SPRING. THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES...INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/... US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /USACE/...MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /MRCC/...HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /HPRCC/...US DROUGHT MONITOR /NIDIS/...AND THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER /NOHRSC/. THE OUTLOOK THAT FOLLOWS BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT BASIN CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. *** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS *** OVERALL...WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND WARM PATTERN...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING IS SHIFTING LOWER. THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOW LOOKING TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW PARAMETERS SUGGESTING AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK...BUT SEVERAL OTHERS THAT POINT TO A LOWER RISK. CONSIDERING ALL FACTORS TOGETHER...IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL RISK IS BELOW NORMAL. ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO EXCESS RAINFALL FROM SPRING THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SOME SNOW ANTICIPATED TO END THE WEEK OVER THE UPPER PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN. BUT THE PATTERN SHIFTS WARM AGAIN NEXT WEEK...LIKELY MELTING AWAY THE SNOW COVER AGAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME RENEWED RIVER RISES AGAIN...BUT THE RISK FOR FLOODING FROM THIS IS LOW. IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :MISSISSIPPI RIVER LAKE CITY 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 11 25 <5 9 <5 <5 WABASHA 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 28 56 8 19 <5 9 ALMA 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 DAM 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : 11 27 <5 12 <5 6 DAM 5A 656.0 659.0 661.0 : 11 27 <5 9 <5 5 WINONA 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 19 44 10 20 <5 9 TREMPEALEAU 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 12 35 <5 13 <5 7 LA CRESCENT 641.0 643.0 645.0 : 11 32 <5 12 <5 7 LA CROSSE 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 17 45 10 23 <5 8 GENOA 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 20 48 <5 11 <5 7 LANSING 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 9 <5 8 <5 <5 LYNXVILLE 625.0 628.0 631.0 : 10 23 <5 9 <5 <5 MCGREGOR 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 22 52 10 25 <5 9 GUTTENBERG 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 14 43 <5 13 <5 <5 :ZUMBRO RIVER ZUMBRO FLS 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER ROCHESTER 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ROOT RIVER HOUSTON 15.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER LANESBORO 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CEDAR RIVER LANSING 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 AUSTIN 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 13 <5 8 <5 6 OSAGE 22.0 24.0 27.0 : 8 19 <5 9 <5 <5 CHARLES CTY 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 12 24 <5 12 <5 9 :TURTLE CREEK AUSTIN 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 8 15 <5 6 <5 <5 :TURKEY RIVER ELKADER 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 31 49 12 19 <5 <5 GARBER 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 23 38 13 21 8 11 :UPPER IOWA RIVER DECORAH 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DORCHESTER 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 17 35 7 9 <5 <5 :TREMPEALEAU RIVER ARCADIA 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 7 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 DODGE 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 24 52 <5 6 <5 <5 :BLACK RIVER NEILLSVILLE 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BLK RVR FLS 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 25 60 8 22 <5 <5 GALESVILLE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 30 62 17 41 <5 <5 :KICKAPOO RIVER LA FARGE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 VIOLA 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 28 33 <5 <5 <5 <5 READSTOWN 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 33 38 <5 <5 <5 <5 SLDRS GROVE 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 20 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 GAYS MILLS 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 49 48 5 8 <5 <5 STEUBEN 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 15 21 <5 8 <5 <5 :WISCONSIN RIVER MUSCODA 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :YELLOW RIVER NECEDAH 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 34 73 14 40 <5 14 *** CLIMATE INFORMATION *** FROM NOVEMBER 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 28 2015...5 TO 7 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WAS 2 TO 3 INCHES WETTER THAN NORMAL. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES FELL ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA... AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WAS 3 TO 7 INCHES WETTER THAN NORMAL. WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST NOVEMBERS AND DECEMBERS ON RECORD...MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION SATURATED THE SOIL AND THE REST OF IT WAS CARRIED DOWNSTREAM...WHERE IT CAUSED RECORD FLOODING ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FROM DECEMBER 29 2015 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY...1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH TEMPERATURES 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SINCE MID-FEBRUARY...MUCH OF THE SNOW MELTED SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29. THIS WATER HAS ALREADY ENTERED EITHER SOILS OR IS BEING TRANSPORTED AWAY FROM THE AREA IN THE RIVER AND STREAMS. FROM FEBRUARY 29TH THROUGH MARCH 1ST...1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE WATER EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SNOW IS UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THIS NEW SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY. AS WE HEAD INTO SPRING OF 2016...EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TYPICALLY DURING AN EL NINO EVENT...MARCH TENDS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH ITS PRECIPITATION...AND THEY TEND TO BE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL IN APRIL AND MAY. *** FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION *** THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ANALYSIS IS BASED ON CURRENT SOIL AND SNOW CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A BROAD SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL SPRING WEATHER CONDITIONS REFLECTED IN THE CLIMATE RECORD FROM 1949 TO 2015. THE ANALYSIS BELOW IS VERY GENERAL. A MORE QUANTIFIED RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY IS AVAILABLE THROUGH WEB GRAPHICS AND TABLES AT HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP?PERCENT=50 THE FALL AND WINTER PERIOD BEGAN RATHER WET...WITH WARM AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. SOILS WERE VERY MOIST GOING INTO THE FREEZE UP...AND RIVERS WERE RUNNING HIGH. THEN THE COLD WEATHER FINALLY SETTLED IN FOR JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS CAUSED THE MOISTURE TO FREEZE IN THE SOILS...AND RIVERS CONTINUED TO RUN HIGH ALL WINTER LONG. STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AS REPORTED BY THE USGS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...RUNNING IN THE HIGHEST 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF ALL HISTORICAL RECORDS. BUT TIMELY SNOW PUT A BLANKET ON THE GROUND...INSULATING THE FROST FROM GOING TOO DEEP. THE PAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS WERE RATHER WARM...MELTING OFF MOST OF THE SNOW COVER...AND ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE ICE TO RUN OUT FROM THE RIVER SYSTEMS. BUT SNOW FELL EARLIER THIS WEEK DROPPING A FEW INCHES BACK ONTO THE LANDSCAPE. WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE REMAINING SNOW IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH. FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 TO 18 INCHES. WHEN LOOKING AT ALL OF THE FACTORS...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS SPRING LOOK BELOW NORMAL. ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO EXCESS RAINFALL FROM SPRING THUNDERSTORMS. IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MISSISSIPPI RIVER LAKE CITY 9.2 10.2 11.7 12.6 14.2 16.3 16.7 WABASHA 8.9 9.4 10.5 11.4 12.3 13.8 14.1 ALMA 6.7 7.4 8.6 9.5 11.0 13.1 13.6 DAM 5 653.2 653.9 655.2 656.3 658.0 660.6 661.3 DAM 5A 648.5 649.5 650.7 651.8 653.6 656.5 657.1 WINONA 7.2 8.0 9.3 10.3 12.1 15.0 15.7 TREMPEALEAU 641.8 642.5 643.6 644.4 645.8 648.0 648.6 LA CRESCENT 634.9 635.6 636.9 638.0 639.4 641.6 642.3 LA CROSSE 6.8 7.4 8.8 9.9 11.2 13.2 13.8 GENOA 625.5 626.3 627.9 629.2 630.5 632.5 633.3 LANSING 8.7 9.0 9.9 10.9 12.0 14.7 15.7 LYNXVILLE 617.6 618.3 619.6 620.8 622.3 624.9 626.0 MCGREGOR 10.6 11.2 12.8 13.8 15.8 18.8 20.1 GUTTENBERG 9.7 10.2 11.7 12.8 14.1 16.7 17.8 :ZUMBRO RIVER ZUMBRO FLS 8.3 8.6 9.6 11.2 12.9 14.6 19.3 :SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER ROCHESTER 4.3 4.6 5.2 6.4 7.6 8.8 14.5 :ROOT RIVER HOUSTON 4.9 5.1 5.8 7.5 8.7 10.7 13.7 :SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER LANESBORO 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.5 5.5 7.8 9.1 :CEDAR RIVER LANSING 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.2 15.4 16.1 16.6 AUSTIN 5.9 6.4 7.4 8.7 10.6 11.8 12.5 OSAGE 16.6 16.9 17.8 18.8 20.0 21.2 22.5 CHARLES CTY 5.2 5.4 6.9 8.2 9.9 13.3 14.2 :TURTLE CREEK AUSTIN 3.1 3.3 5.0 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.9 :TURKEY RIVER ELKADER 7.7 8.3 8.8 10.4 12.4 16.8 18.3 GARBER 9.2 9.8 11.1 13.3 16.3 21.3 28.2 :UPPER IOWA RIVER DECORAH 3.8 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.9 8.2 9.4 DORCHESTER 9.2 9.5 10.4 11.4 12.5 16.2 18.3 :TREMPEALEAU RIVER ARCADIA 4.2 4.4 5.4 6.0 6.4 7.5 8.5 DODGE 6.1 6.5 7.6 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.7 :BLACK RIVER NEILLSVILLE 7.6 8.0 8.7 9.8 11.5 13.4 14.1 BLK RVR FLS 41.3 42.0 43.1 44.8 47.0 50.8 51.9 GALESVILLE 8.0 9.0 9.9 11.1 12.3 13.4 13.6 :KICKAPOO RIVER LA FARGE 4.6 5.4 6.5 7.2 9.3 10.6 11.0 VIOLA 10.5 11.2 12.2 12.8 14.1 15.0 15.2 READSTOWN 6.8 7.4 8.7 10.4 11.3 12.4 13.2 SLDRS GROVE 9.4 9.7 10.8 12.2 12.9 13.9 14.7 GAYS MILLS 10.0 10.4 11.5 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 STEUBEN 9.3 9.6 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.5 12.9 :WISCONSIN RIVER MUSCODA 3.2 3.4 3.8 5.8 6.6 7.6 8.8 :YELLOW RIVER NECEDAH 11.8 12.5 13.9 14.6 15.6 16.7 16.9 THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE INTERNET AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED MARCH 3RD. $$ WELVAERT/BOYNE