A storm system will shift across the southwest U.S. through Thursday with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Isolated flooding is possible. High-elevation snow is also expected in parts of Nevada and the southern Sierra Nevada range. East of this storm, above average temperatures will challenge or break daily record high temperatures this week in the southern Plains and southeast U.S. Read More >
008
FXUS64 KEWX 181905
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flood Watch for Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35
Corridor Wednesday night until Friday morning.
- Some strong to isolated severe storms also possible late
Wednesday night into early Friday.
- Higher uncertainty but additional rain chances could occur from the
weekend through early next week due to a second Pacific upper
level low pressure system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
An upper level low is moving into the west coast with a low
amplitude ridge over Texas making the flow west-southwesterly. Low
level flow is from the southeast over South-Central Texas keeping
a warm, moist airmass in place. This pattern will continue tonight
and Wednesday making for another unseasonably warm night and day.
Low clouds will develop overnight, and there may be some drizzle
Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another very warm day with
high temperatures from the middle 70s to middle 80s. The upper
low will move to the east during the day Wednesday turning the
flow to the southwest. This will generate sufficient lift to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
The upper low will open into a wave and become more progressive
Wednesday night. This will bring stronger forcing to our region.
Forecast models show PW increasing to 1.5"-1.8" ahead of this
which will make locally heavy rain possible beginning late
Wednesday night. The most likely area for excessive rain Wednesday
night will be the Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill
Country. We have issued a Flood Watch starting late Wednesday
night for the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35
Corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
The upper trough will continue to move toward Texas Thursday and
bring a Pacific cold front with it. This will move into the warm,
moist airmass. PW values will remain high enough to produce
excessive rain. Another round of heavy rain is possible over the
Southern Edwards Plateau and then through the day is will move to
the east with the front. The Flood Watch will continue through the
day Thursday and overnight into Friday morning. Rainfall totals
across the area will be 1-3 inches with isolated amounts up to 6
inches. Rainfall amounts will be decreasing Thursday evening and
overnight as the front moves away from our CWA. Some showers and
thunderstorms could linger during the day Friday over the eastern
counties. The front will stall across South Texas and remain close
enough to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday. Sunday and Monday another mature Pacific system will
move through the region bringing another chance for precipitation.
There won`t be much time re-moisten the airmass, so we do not
expect excessive rainfall at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
MVFR ceilings are beginning to mix out but it may be another hour or
so before all of South Central Texas returns to VFR. South to east
winds generally remain under 12 knots this afternoon and evening,
though isolated gusts up to 25 knots could be seen midday. MVFR to
local IFR ceilings return tonight. Some -DZ cannot be ruled out
around SAT/SSF/DRT Wednesday morning, but confidence is low enough
to not mention in the TAF at this time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Record High Temperatures Tuesday 11/18
AUS 84/2017
ATT 85/1921 & 1986
SAT 88/1986 & 2017
DRT 87/1986
Record Rainfall Thursday 11/20
AUS 1.24"/2009
ATT 1.63"/2009
SAT 1.15"/2009
DRT 0.20"/1984
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 85 68 84 69 / 10 0 30 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 67 84 68 / 10 10 30 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 67 84 68 / 10 10 40 40
Burnet Muni Airport 82 66 81 66 / 10 0 30 60
Del Rio Intl Airport 82 69 80 66 / 10 10 60 80
Georgetown Muni Airport 85 67 84 68 / 10 0 30 50
Hondo Muni Airport 84 67 84 66 / 20 10 30 70
San Marcos Muni Airport 85 67 85 68 / 10 10 40 40
La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 67 85 68 / 10 10 30 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 84 69 85 69 / 20 10 40 50
Stinson Muni Airport 85 69 87 70 / 10 10 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday
night for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...27
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 11/16/2025 08:06:00 PM UTC
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