Isolated severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep South Tuesday morning into early evening. A couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama. In the north-central U.S., a storm will bring heavy snow and gusty to high winds over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday before impacting the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Read More >
617
FXUS64 KEWX 250604
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1204 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather continues for the next few days with cooler air arriving
Wednesday.
- Cool and dry for Thanksgiving Day.
- A wetter weather pattern may return Saturday and continue into next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Drier air is now spreading across South-Central Texas, whisking away
clouds and moisture for the next few days. Over the last 12 hours,
the precipitable water measured by the Del Rio upper-air balloon
fell from 1.42 inches (well above the 90th percentile) to
approximately 0.4 inches (below the 25th percentile). The rarefied
moisture and light winds will make for a much cooler morning. Lows
in the valleys of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country are
forecast to dip into the upper 40s. Elsewhere, lows will generally
range from the 50s over most of the region to around 60 over the
Coastal Plains. Evapotranspiration and low-level moisture sticking
around the Coastal Plains with light winds supports patchy overnight
and morning fog, dense in some spots, as temperatures fall to
saturation.
Winds aloft not far above the surface remain westerly, so warm air
is still present in the lower troposphere. This air should mix down
on a sunny Tuesday afternoon, leading to highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s.
A mass of cold air currently over the northern Rockies is expected
to spill south across the Central Plains Tuesday. As is typical,
flow aloft guides the core of this air east into the Central
Mississippi River Valley and Midwest, but its southern periphery
should make it to our area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Lows north and west of the Balcones Escarpment Wednesday morning are
expected to dip into the low to mid 40s with low 50s to the south
and along the Rio Grande. However, breezy winds associated with the
surging airmass will make those temperatures feel more chilly. Winds
are expected to peak during the morning hours on Wednesday, with
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts possibly up to 35 mph
across much of South-Central Texas. Current modeled wind speeds are
below Wind Advisory criteria, but it will likely be a blustery
morning nonetheless. Those brisk winds should steadily lessen
Wednesday afternoon as the leading edge of the airmass drops farther
south. Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the 60s regionwide
under essentially cloudless skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Effective radiational cooling Thursday morning should make for a
cool start to Thanksgiving with forecast lows in the 30s and 40s.
Rural low-lying areas north of I-10 may experience a brief patchy
freeze. Thanksgiving Day is expected to be rather seasonable with
mostly clear skies and highs in the 60s.
Beginning Friday, the northerly winds responsible for bringing in
the cooler air shifts east as the subtropical jet makes its return
over the southwestern US ahead of amplifying troughing, restoring a
moistening southerly wind. Conditions may still be dry with
seasonable temperatures Friday, but more mild and muggy weather
could be in place by Saturday with rain chances on the rise. There
are significant uncertainties regarding the weather this weekend
into early next week. In general, a broad longwave trough should set
up over the western and central US downstream of a blocking ridge
over the North Pacific, placing the subtropical and southern branch
of the polar jet over the Southern Plains and supporting the
increase of moisture in our area. However, timing of rainfall and
temperature trends will be tied to the track and timing of
individual shortwave disturbances along the jets. Saturday looks to
be the favored timing of a first rainmaking disturbance, but there
may be several opportunities for rain so long as the longwave
pattern remains in place. As an example of the uncertainty, the GFS
has a shortwave along the subtropical jet Saturday while the ECMWF
pushes one along the southern polar jet, leading to a 30-degree
difference in temperatures between those two models for some spots
Sunday morning.
All in all, the main takeaway is that a period of variable weather
with multiple windows of opportunity for rain will likely kickoff
this weekend with recurring cloudiness. Temperatures will likely be
on the warmer side to start the weekend, but there is good
consensus that colder air will eventually return sometime early to
mid next week as the longwave pattern expands across CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Clear skies and light winds will be mostly of a drainage variety
in the early period. A reinforcing cold front arrives in the
evening hours, but significant winds and gusts will be hardly
noticeable until after 06Z Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry pattern is expected to continue through Thursday. Relative
humidity values are expected to fall below to 20-30 percent south of
Interstate 10 this afternoon, but winds remain light to near calm. A
cold front pushes south Wednesday morning with a breezy and cooler
post-frontal environment. North winds of 10-15 mph may overlap with
25-35 percent relative humidity south of Interstate 10 and produce
some locally elevated fire weather conditions, but cooler
temperatures and improved soil moisture should mitigate impacts.
Moisture returns Friday and over the weekend, with an upper level
disturbance bringing a low chance of wetting rains over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 54 79 49 / 70 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 52 79 47 / 70 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 54 82 49 / 60 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 72 51 75 45 / 80 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 82 52 80 52 / 20 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 51 77 45 / 80 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 75 50 82 49 / 50 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 76 52 81 49 / 70 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 55 79 50 / 70 40 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 55 82 51 / 60 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 74 56 83 53 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...18
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 11/25/2025 11:24:00 AM UTC
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