A slow moving weather disturbance will continue to bring periodic rain showers, a few isolated thunderstorms, and a localized flash flooding across the Southwest. The threat will expand into the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Moderate to heavy snow across the Sierra Nevada and southern Utah Ranges will continue into the overnight period. Read More >
213
FXUS64 KEWX 182347
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
547 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flood Watch for Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35
Corridor Wednesday night until Friday morning.
- Some strong to isolated severe storms also possible late
Wednesday night into early Friday.
- Higher uncertainty but additional rain chances could occur from the
weekend through early next week due to a second Pacific upper
level low pressure system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
An upper level low is moving into the west coast with a low
amplitude ridge over Texas making the flow west-southwesterly. Low
level flow is from the southeast over South-Central Texas keeping
a warm, moist airmass in place. This pattern will continue tonight
and Wednesday making for another unseasonably warm night and day.
Low clouds will develop overnight, and there may be some drizzle
Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another very warm day with
high temperatures from the middle 70s to middle 80s. The upper
low will move to the east during the day Wednesday turning the
flow to the southwest. This will generate sufficient lift to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
The upper low will open into a wave and become more progressive
Wednesday night. This will bring stronger forcing to our region.
Forecast models show PW increasing to 1.5"-1.8" ahead of this
which will make locally heavy rain possible beginning late
Wednesday night. The most likely area for excessive rain Wednesday
night will be the Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill
Country. We have issued a Flood Watch starting late Wednesday
night for the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35
Corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
The upper trough will continue to move toward Texas Thursday and
bring a Pacific cold front with it. This will move into the warm,
moist airmass. PW values will remain high enough to produce
excessive rain. Another round of heavy rain is possible over the
Southern Edwards Plateau and then through the day is will move to
the east with the front. The Flood Watch will continue through the
day Thursday and overnight into Friday morning. Rainfall totals
across the area will be 1-3 inches with isolated amounts up to 6
inches. Rainfall amounts will be decreasing Thursday evening and
overnight as the front moves away from our CWA. Some showers and
thunderstorms could linger during the day Friday over the eastern
counties. The front will stall across South Texas and remain close
enough to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday. Sunday and Monday another mature Pacific system will
move through the region bringing another chance for precipitation.
There won`t be much time re-moisten the airmass, so we do not
expect excessive rainfall at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
For tonight expect VFR conditions to continue until about 06Z for
KAUS/KSAT and KSSF before a return to MVFR cigs and possibly IFR
cigs overnight. Conditions should improve to VFR by late
afternoon (21Z). Afterwhich we start to see the increase of rain
chances just beyond the forecast package. Have kept the mention
out of the TAFS for the 3 I-35 TAF sites for now as confidence on
when we first see rain is low. Will continue to monitor and
amend as needed. For KDRT expect VFR cigs until about 10Z
overnight before MVFR cigs return and last throughout the period.
Additionally -RA chances increase and have added a TEMPO from 18Z
to 22Z however its possible could need to amend for longer
duration as rain lingers over the TAF site longer.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Record High Temperatures Tuesday 11/18
AUS 84/2017
ATT 85/1921 & 1986
SAT 88/1986 & 2017
DRT 87/1986
Record Rainfall Thursday 11/20
AUS 1.24"/2009
ATT 1.63"/2009
SAT 1.15"/2009
DRT 0.20"/1984
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 68 84 69 81 / 0 30 40 80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 84 68 81 / 10 30 40 80
New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 84 68 81 / 10 40 40 80
Burnet Muni Airport 66 81 66 73 / 0 30 60 80
Del Rio Intl Airport 69 80 66 77 / 10 60 80 90
Georgetown Muni Airport 67 84 68 77 / 0 30 50 80
Hondo Muni Airport 67 84 66 79 / 10 30 70 90
San Marcos Muni Airport 67 85 68 81 / 10 40 40 80
La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 85 68 83 / 10 30 20 60
San Antonio Intl Airport 69 85 69 80 / 10 40 50 80
Stinson Muni Airport 69 87 70 83 / 10 40 50 80
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday
night for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...CJM
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 11/16/2025 08:06:00 PM UTC
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