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Forecast Discussion

                        
844
FXUS64 KEWX 170608
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1208 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and muggy into midweek with morning low clouds,
patchy fog, and drizzle

- A Pacific storm system will bring returning rain and storm chances
(60-80%) with the opportunity for strong storms and locally heavy
rainfall

- Uncertainty in the forecast this weekend with a secondary system

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A warm and humid airmass stays in place through Tuesday with a
persistent southerly low-level flow and a west-southwesterly flow
aloft. This will support development of low clouds from the late
overnight into each morning. For most locations, stratus should
remain more favored over fog formation. However, there will be
patchy fog still for some. Highest HREF/REFS probabilities of
visibility below 1 mile occurs across Atascosa, Bexar, Bandera,
Frio, Kendall, Medina, and Uvalde counties this morning. For
Tuesday, best probabilities look to be mainly over the Southern
Edwards Plateau. Wouldn`t rule out some patchy drizzle Tuesday
morning as well thanks to a slightly deeper pool of low-level
moisture. The low clouds will lift and mix with occasional high
clouds to result in partly cloudy to mostly clear skies from the
afternoon through the evening each day. Daytime highs will run
primarily in the 80s. Locations could approach record highs for
Tuesday but today`s records may be a little out of reach. The
overnight lows primarily run in the 60s into the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Warm and moist air advection intensifies across the region from
Tuesday night through Wednesday with increasing southerly flow in
the advance of the approaching upper level low coming off the
Pacific. Wednesday starts off warm and very humid with patchy to
areas of drizzle possible. Rain showers and some storm activity
could establish into and through Wednesday afternoon within this
warm, moist air advection regime. While instability does build
Wednesday, regional analysis of box soundings show a capping
inversion holding at around 700 mb level, likely limiting storm
growth and strength at least through the daytime. Better chances
arrive from late Wednesday night through Thursday into Thursday
night, and would be highlighted in the paragraph below.

As the main upper level low pivots northeastward from the Desert
Southwest into the Texas panhandle from late Wednesday through
Thursday, it`ll help to send a trailing vort max and cold front
across the region. Immediately ahead of and along these features
would be the strongest ascent, with the highest rain and storm
chances in the 60 to 80% range. A concern would be some locally
heavy rainfall that may result in some flooding concerns. WPC has
elected to introduce a level 1 to 2 risk for excessive rainfall
across the region during this time range. The ensemble means are
continuing to highlight rainfall amounts into the 1.5 to 2 inch
range. However, the highest rainfall amounts continue to favor
regions of north Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. In addition to
locally heavy rainfall, enough shear and instability overlap to
where strong to severe storms could be possible as well with the
most organized convection. Rain and storm chances decline into and
through Friday from west to east as drier and cooler air filters
into the region behind the front.

Forecast uncertainty increases this weekend due to differences in
the medium range guidance regarding a second upper level system
coming off the Pacific. The latest ECMWF and Canadian suites are
more progressive with the system while the GFS is slower. The
progressive solutions would promote a cooler forecast with the
clouds becoming socked in and with opportunities for rain. While
with the slower solution, conditions would lean to a drier and
milder forecast. I will keep the forecast on par with the NBM
guidance, featuring low to medium (20-30%) rain chances and
afternoon highs in the low 70s. The overnight lows trend into the
40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

High clouds and mainly VFR conditions are seen over South Central
Texas for the start of the period. Low stratus and areas of fog will
quickly develop over the next few hours, mainly from the Hill
Country and locations eastward including I-35 terminals. A mix of
IFR to MVFR conditions is forecast but expect pockets of LIFR near
HDO-SAT-SSF-PEZ from around 11-15Z. Conditions will improve late
morning with VFR conditions expected across the area this afternoon.
There is high confidence low ceilings will develop again early
Tuesday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Record High Temperatures

Day    Mon     Tue
Date   11/17   11/18

AUS   89/2013  84/2017
ATT   90/2013  85/1921 & 1986
SAT   89/2013  88/1986 & 2017
DRT   91/1906  87/1986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  71  86  70 /   0  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  70  87  68 /   0  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  69  86  69 /   0  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            85  68  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  66  85  68 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  70  84  68 /   0  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             87  67  85  68 /   0  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  69  87  68 /   0  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  69  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  70  85  70 /   0  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           87  70  87  70 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...27