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865
FXUS64 KEWX 181145
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
545 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.AVIATION...
Patches of -SNPL from the Big Bend to the western Edwards Plateau
will slide to the east this morning while slowly dissipating as they
encounter drier air further to the east. For now, will leave mention
out of KDRT TAF as observations there showed no precip while a band
moved overhead since lower levels are very dry. Will monitor trends
for possible updates to mention. The same upper level disturbance
will develop SHRA along and east of I-35 overnight into Friday. For
now, have kept mention out of I-35 TAFs as best chances (PROBS 30% or
greater) are east of the sites. Otherwise, VFR flying conditions
prevail today into tonight with a layer at FL035-060. CIGs lower to
MVFR overnight across eastern areas, including I-35 TAFs. There is
some potential for CIGs to lower further to IFR Friday morning should
SHRA develop, though better chances are east of the I-35 TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Another cold night across the area especially the northeast part of
the Hill Country where temperatures are in the lower to mid 20s as
of 4 am. The Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau are a
bit warmer since clouds lingered around for a longer period of time
yesterday and therefore, radiational cooling less effective there.
However, temperatures are still expected to bottom down to the upper
20s and lower 30s by dawn as an upper level disturbance moves across
south central Texas this morning. Most HiRes models suggest a narrow
band of wintry mix pushing across portion of Val Verde county into
the southern Edwards Plateau this morning. With such a dry airmass in
place and dewpoints in the single to the mid teens digits, we are
not expecting accumulation of any winter type precipitation.

Temperatures rebound to above freezing by noon time today everywhere
and reach the mid 40s most areas by mid afternoon. Cloudy skies will
prevail across the area for much of today with some clearing out
west late this afternoon.

The eastern two-thirds of south central Texas remains cloudy this
evening into Friday morning as increased moisture surges to the
north and into our area as a coastal low pressure system develops
ahead of the upper level disturbance mentioned above and forecast to
move east into east Texas by noon on Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
By Friday evening into Saturday morning, the coastal low dissipates
and a strong low level jet develops and brings 30 to 40 mph across
the eastern half of south central Texas with chances of rain mainly
along and east of Highway 183. Clearing is expected from west to east
mid morning Saturday with some clouds linger over the far east for
the afternoon period. A nice warmup is also anticipated with highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Chances for rain return early Sunday as a Pacific cold front moves
across the area. This front is forecast to exit the far east of south
central Texas by the early evening hours. There is enough instability
according to forecast soundings for isolated thunderstorms to occur
late afternoon into early evening along and east of Highway 183.

Once the front pushes to the east and away from the area, dry weather
conditions are expected for the remainder of the week with cool
nights and warm days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 44 34 49 45 68 / - 10 20 10 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 43 32 48 44 67 / - 10 20 20 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 44 34 49 43 67 / 10 10 30 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 43 30 51 42 67 / 0 0 0 - 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 47 29 58 38 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 44 31 49 44 67 / - - 10 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 45 34 52 39 67 / 10 10 10 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 43 33 48 43 67 / 10 10 30 10 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 43 34 49 46 67 / - 10 40 30 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 44 36 50 43 67 / 10 10 20 - 10
Stinson Muni Airport 44 35 50 42 67 / 10 20 20 10 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...17


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