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Forecast Discussion

                        
711
FXUS64 KEWX 030605
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" today through Saturday with
  locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer on Sunday through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A mid to upper level trough moves over our area today and Friday.
The airmass remains unseasonably moist with PWs of 1.8 to 2.4
inches. Forcing by the trough and heating will generate rounds of
showers over most areas with sufficient instability for isolated to
perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms. As seen the last few days,
locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches can be expected and may
cause some minor flooding, especially where recent heavy rains have
moistened soils resulting in faster runoff. In addition, gusty winds
of 40 to 50 mph are possible as storms collapse. Due to the clouds
and rain, below to well below average temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Most models are now leaving a remnant mid level feature over our
area with less of an influence of the Subtropical Ridge through much
of the weekend. As a result, the unseasonably moist airmass remains
along with forcing by the feature and heating. Thus, have introduced
low chances of showers and thunderstorms over most areas on Saturday
and Rio Grande into Edwards Plateau on Sunday. The Subtropical Ridge
builds more fully over our area next week. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms wane as the airmass dries under increasing subsidence.
About the only rain chances will be with the seabreeze near the
Coastal Plains each afternoon. Increased sunshine leads to
temperatures warming to near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Showers at AUS will move north of the airport in the next hour with
scattered showers expected to continue at DRT through at least
sunrise. Ceilings will continue to drop in the west overnight with
MVFR ceilings spreading to I-35 terminals around 08-10Z. IFR
ceilings are likely from the Hill Country westward including DRT
through mid morning which may just reach SAT/SSF around 11Z.
Conditions return to VFR for I-35 terminals this afternoon while
MVFR ceilings linger at DRT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon but timing and placement remain uncertain
like previous days. For this issuance, have continued PROB30 groups
for convection during the afternoon today. MVFR ceilings will likely
to redevelop late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  75  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  76  91  75 /  50  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  75  91  74 /  50  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            85  74  88  73 /  50  30  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  75  92  76 /  70  50  50  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  75  90  75 /  40  20  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             85  75  89  73 /  50  40  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  75  91  74 /  50  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  75  91  75 /  40  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  76  90  75 /  50  30  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           90  76  92  75 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27