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Forecast Discussion

                        
547
FXUS64 KEWX 271150
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
550 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry for Thanksgiving Day.

- A wetter weather pattern may return Saturday and continue into
next week.

- Coldest temperatures of the season possible Sunday into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A broad upper level trough covers most of the country. The trough
axis has moved to the east of Texas and the flow is from the
northwest. At the surface, cooler, drier air has moved over South-
Central Texas. Temperatures are 5-15 degrees cooler and dewpoints
are 10-20 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. A low amplitude ridge
will move over Texas today and then flatten tonight and Friday.
Surface high pressure will move to the east turning the low level
flow to the east. This will result in dry weather today and tonight.
We expect seasonably cool high temperatures today in the 60s and
lower 70s. The easterly winds will  bring a slightly warmer airmass
and lows Friday will be a little warmer than today. The easterly
flow will also bring deeper moisture up the Rio Grande. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the region Friday and produce
chances for rain spreading from the Rio Grande area to the central
part of our CWA through day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1152 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The next frontal system will move into the region Friday night and
move away Saturday night. This will bring better chances for showers
and possibly some thunderstorms to much of the CWA, although the
better chances will be over the eastern half of the area where there
will be deeper moisture. Breezy northerly winds will move in behind
the cold front Saturday night and Sunday. This will bring another
surge of cooler air. Highs Sunday will be in the 50s. The cool air
will stick around for the last couple of days of the forecast. Lows
Monday through Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s with Tuesday
looking like the coldest morning. We may need a Freeze Warning for
much of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and parts of the I-35
Corridor. Look for a warm up Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR skies should last through the daytime across all TAF sites. In
general, the TAFs are running a bit more aggressive on the basic
MOS guidances, so the beginning of MVFR CIGs at DRT might be a tad
early. Even the NBM comes in with MVFR skies before midnight which
is also faster than the MET/MAV MOS timing. Winds will remain
mainly below 10 knots as they slowly veer back toward return flow
late in the periods. No rain is projected inside 30 hours, but
there could be some in the daytime hours at DRT, or just beyond 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  47  66  59 /   0   0  10  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  45  66  57 /   0   0  10  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  48  67  59 /   0   0  20  70
Burnet Muni Airport            62  46  61  56 /   0   0  20  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  55  64  59 /   0  10  50  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  44  64  56 /   0   0  10  60
Hondo Muni Airport             66  51  65  58 /   0   0  30  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  47  68  58 /   0   0  10  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  44  68  59 /   0   0  10  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  52  65  61 /   0   0  30  60
Stinson Muni Airport           66  53  68  62 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...18