Heavy lake effect snow will persist downwind of the Great Lakes through early Saturday. Snow squalls with heavy snow and gusty winds will create dangerous travel in the Interior Northeast due to low visibility and slippery roads. A major winter storm will bring moderate to heavy, accumulating snow and gusty winds from the eastern Plains to the western Great Lakes today through Saturday. Read More >
867
FXUS64 KEWX 290600
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light to moderate showers increasing overnight into Saturday morning.
- Chances for thunderstorms along and east of I-35 Saturday night.
- Strong cold front Saturday night bringing gusty winds and the
coldest temperatures of the season.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
A mid to upper level short wave is moving across South Central Texas
late this evening. Latest data from the EWX Doppler radar shows an
increasing low level jet of 40+ knots between 1 and 2 km AGL. The
03Z SPC Mesoanalysis map shows the precipitation potential placement
along and east of the low jet max that extends from north to central
Texas and into the Hill Country. During the overnight period, an
upper level pulse of energy could result in isolated pockets of
moderate rain mainly over areas along and east of Highway 281.
Rainfall amounts are likely to be minimal to quarter inch with this
activity. However, a few locations with higher amounts up to half
inch can`t be ruled out.
With increased moisture in place, expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies over most of South Central Texas on Saturday. There may be a
few locations along the Rio Grande that could see partly cloudy
skies. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 70s across the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country to upper 70s and lower 80s
elsewhere.
A strong cold front is forecast to push across the local area
Saturday night through early Sunday. A line of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is forecast along and just behind the boundary. A few
storms could be strong to marginally severe capable of producing
large hail and strong wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. As the front moves
across the area late Saturday night through Sunday morning, breezy
to windy conditions are likely with winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts
of 35 to 45 mph. A Wind Advisory is likely issue during the day if
models continue with the similar trend. In addition to the wind, a
cold airmass spreads across South Central Texas with overnight lows
in the upper 30s to lower 50s along the Rio Grande. The wind chill
factor feel like temperatures in the upper 20 to lower 30s range for
the Hill Country.
Sunday`s highs only reaching the 40s and 50s areawide with overnight
lows/early Monday morning temps in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Another chance for showers and even a storm or two, comes early
Monday and continues throughout the day as an upper level storm
tracks over South Central Texas. The areas favored for
precipitation are those along and east of Interstate 35. Cooler
weather stays for several days, however, warms back up by Friday
into next weekend with highs in the mid to upper 60s and 70s along
the Rio Grande.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
There are quite a few category changes expected with abundant
moisture and shifty and gusty winds changing our ahead of an
approaching storm system. An early shortwave disturbance is
interacting with a thick layer of low level moisture that will
slowly lead to near surface saturation overnight. Scattered
patches of drizzle and light showers will be intermittent through
the night over the I-35 corridor, with precipitation expected to
stay mainly east of the DRT VCNTY. Between 08Z and 12Z, the I-35
Corridor should become overtaken by IFR conditions and possibly
lower than that for higher terrain areas NW of AUS/SAT. The CIGs
should also fall AT DRT for a few hours, but without precipitation
and lighter winds, the CIG heights and timing is less in focus.
Getting closer to daybreak as the stronger upper disturbance
approaches, the surface winds should kick up more with southerly
winds with some midday gusts approaching 25 knots. This extra
mixing might briefly lower the precip potential and raise CIGS to
mainly MVFR. A brief VFR period could occur, more likely to the
west of AUS, but lighter winds ahead of a front could see the CIGS
lower again in the early evening. The strong front to follow may
bring the best potential for brief thunderstorms over I-35, mainly
in the 03Z-06Z window. Conditions should improve more steadily
behind the front with maybe a few hours of MVFR CIGs, but lifting
to low VFR heights once the winds become gusty up to 30 knots.
Somewhat lighter winds are projected for DRT, so their return to
VFR skies could happen by mid afternoon and stay there behind the
front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 67 59 77 40 / 10 50 30 50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 60 77 38 / 10 50 40 60
New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 60 77 40 / 10 70 30 50
Burnet Muni Airport 63 57 74 37 / 10 50 20 30
Del Rio Intl Airport 62 59 77 45 / 30 30 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 67 58 76 37 / 10 40 30 50
Hondo Muni Airport 65 60 75 41 / 30 60 20 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 68 59 78 39 / 10 60 30 60
La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 60 77 40 / 10 40 60 80
San Antonio Intl Airport 66 61 75 43 / 20 70 20 40
Stinson Muni Airport 67 63 77 45 / 20 70 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...18
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 11/25/2025 11:24:00 AM UTC
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