Area Forecast Discussion

Heavy Rain in the Southern U.S.; Winter Storm to Impact the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Interior Northeast

A storm system stretching from the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast will bring a variety of hazards to the Eastern U.S. through Tuesday. On the south side of the system, heavy rain and thunderstorms will persist across the Southern U.S. Further north, a wintry precipitation mix is expected from the Central Appalachians to the interior Northeast through Tuesday. Read More >

818
FXUS63 KSGF 020541
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1141 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to heavt snow moving through from the west this
evening. Main impacts will be with the snow band with 0.5-1.5
inches of snow possible.

- Precipitation chances rapidly decreasing for Thursday night
and Friday, but watching for a potentially brief freezing
drizzle event Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Current
probability for precipitation is < 15%, but that may need to
be increased in future updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Ongoing event will wind down by midnight, which is also when the
Winter Weather Advisory will expire.

Isolated to scattered showers of wintry mix are not causing any
known impacts at this point lending to daytime insolation, very
light nature, and limited coverage. The main story for this
evening will be the band of snow currently stretching from
north-central OK to the KC area. This will move east through the
area, lasting for 1-2 hours over any one area. Intensity may
vary between light and moderate at times. As for amounts,
looking for around a half inch or less over the southern CWA and
0.5-1.5 inches over the northern portions. Minor travel impacts
are possible, largely due to the snow falling after sunset with
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s and dropping.

After precip moves out, expect lows around 20 tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The long term is relatively quiet with variable temperatures,
but there are a couple low probability precip events to keep an
eye on.

Wednesday evening into Wednesday night:

Models are starting to hint at a short lived freezing drizzle
potential late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night right
behind a strong cold front. Probabilities are too low (< 15%)
to get into our forecast at this point, but it is worth
watching.

Models have quickly moved away from the Thursday night into
Friday precip event. The forecast still features 10-20% chances
for a wintry mix, but that will probably fall out of the
forecast in future updates if trends continue.

Highs will be in the 40s most days, but in the mid 20s to mid
30s on Thursday. The coldest night will be Wednesday night with
lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits, while
other nights are generally in the 20s.

Otherwise, models also hint at some precip this weekend, but
there is not much agreement and probabilities are < 15%. As
such, nothing was included in the forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current satellite imagery shows low stratus moving through the
area. Surface observations have been oscillating these clouds
from IFR to MVFR. This will continue to be the case as the
clouds shift eastward through the TAF period. There is generally
good agreement in these clouds leaving the area and/or
dissipating between 14-16Z. After 14-16Z, winds become south-
southwesterly at 5-10 kts with mostly clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ073-
097-101.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Price