303

FXUS63 KSGF 011738

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1138 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A system will bring 40-80% chances for precipitation Monday

  into Monday night. Very light wintry mix possible roughly

  along and south of I-44 (turning to all snow in the evening),

  with mainly snow north of I-44. Confidence in precipitation

  amounts is limited, with potential for some areas to only see

  trace amounts. Little to no significant impacts expected.



- Precipitation chances trending upward for Thursday night into

  Friday, currently at 30-40%. Model spread is currently still

  too high to put any certainty to forecast precipitation types.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025



Current infrared and water vapor imagery depict two systems

developing across the central CONUS well. The first system is

developing across NE/KS where the left exit region of a jet

streak is currently situated. The second system is developing

across east TX beneath the right entrance region of a separate

jet streak stretched across the Gulf States. Sandwiched in

between these systems, a ribbon of dry air can be seen on water

vapor imagery stretching from southern NM up through the Ozarks.

Both systems have cooled cloud tops in the upper levels,

producing stratiform snow in KS/NE, and stratiform rain in east

TX. In between, where the mid-level dry layer is, infrared

satellite shows more broken low-level clouds as shallow showers

associated with strong 700 mb warm air advection across the

region. This type of precipitation is expected to move NE into

the Ozarks, staying beneath the mid-level dry layer.





30-40% chance for scattered light wintry mix showers this morning:



The type of precipitation currently over OK is expected to move

northeast into the Ozarks, staying beneath the mid-level dry

layer. Current mPing reports within Oklahoma have varied between

sleet/ice pellets, snow, and sometimes freezing drizzle. Given

observed and forecast soundings showing an unsaturated DGZ, a

near-surface dry layer, and the saturated precipitating layer

between 800-600 mb (-4 to -8 C), snow development

characteristics would point towards columns and needles, which

falling through the dry layer would sometimes present itself as

ice pellets or sleet at the surface. Freezing drizzle is also

then possible in areas where near-surface air becomes saturated

enough for warm rain processes. That`s a long way of saying that

these showers are producing a wintry mix of pellets, snow, and

sometimes freezing drizzle.



Timing:



These showers will lift into SW MO/SE KS early this morning

after 5 AM and progress through southern Missouri into the mid-

afternoon hours, clearing our CWA by 3-5 PM. Following these

scattered showers, a period of mostly dry weather is expected.

Forecast soundings show near-surface dry air following these

showers, however, recent RAP runs do suggest a low-end chance

for some light freezing drizzle within this dry area. This would

most likely occur along and south of I-44 between 1 and 6 PM.





Accumulations and Impacts:



Since the wintry mix showers are initiated in a shallow layer

between 600-800 mb, are isolated to scattered in nature, and

expected to move somewhat quickly, any bouts of precipitation

will be light and quick leading to little to no accumulations or

impacts. Any impacts would likely come from freezing drizzle,

though even then, it would be light enough where only less than

minor driving impacts would occur.





50-80% chance for quick-hitting light snow band this evening:



Following the brief dry period during the middle of this

afternoon, the first jet streak will pivot to a more SSW-NNE

orientation and sweep through the area. This will pivot the snow

band across NE/KS also to the SSW-NNE orientation and traverse

our CWA as light snow. The better chance for seeing this snow is

toward central MO, where the snow band is closer to better

synoptic ascent with the left exit region of the jet over north

MO/south IA/west IL. It is very possible that areas along the

southern MO border do not see much or any snow from this band as

it moves west to east (20-40% chance of seeing snow along the

southern MO border; 60-80% chance of not seeing snow).



Timing:



The band is expected to enter our SE KS counties between 3-5 PM,

reach the Springfield area by 6-8 PM, then the eastern Ozarks by

9-11 PM, clearing the area by midnight. While HREF CAMs show

very minor differences in exact timing of arrival of the band,

when it does hit your area, it will last only 1-3 hours.



Accumulations and Impacts:



Since this snow band will be rather light and quick-moving, only

nuisance impacts are expected if driving through the actively

snowing area. This includes modest drops in visibility, and some

slick spots on the roads. The best chance for road impacts

increases as you go north where HREF mean places snowfall rates

at 0.25-0.5 in/hr, which is still meager, but is better than the

0.1 in/hr rates along and south of I-44. This paired with

current road temps sitting around 28 F will allow for some light

accumulation to roads while it is actively snowing. Melting on

roads will likely occur quickly after the snow band ends.



Accumulations on unpaved surfaces look to amount from nothing,

to a trace, to 1 inch or so. The best chance for an inch also

increase as you go toward central MO for the same reasons as

outlined above.



Along southern MO, there is a higher chance (>50%) for no snow

accumulations than there is for a trace. Once you get to the

Highway 54 corridor and northward, there is a 20-50% chance of

at least an inch of snow.





As for temperatures, today will be quite chilly, hovering in the

upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures then drop into the upper

teens to lower 20s tonight.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025



Oscillations of below to near normal temperatures thru the week:



Temperatures will largely be below to near normal through the

week as the jet stream stays over the area, but a somewhat flat

ridge moves over from west to east. As the ridge axis moves

overhead, temperatures will slightly rise before another cold

front drops south. So, temperatures Tuesday start at the mid-30s

to mid-40s, increasing to the middle to upper 40s Wednesday,

decreasing to the upper 20s to middle 30s Thursday, before

warming back up into the 40s for the weekend following another

system. During this period, lows will largely hover in the 20s,

with the coldest night being Wednesday night with lows in the

middle teens to middle 20s.





Next system brings a 30-40% chance of precipitation late week:



Chances for precipitation with our next system Thursday night

into Friday have not increased any bit from the last 24 hours

of forecasts. Taking a look at global deterministic models, each

subsequent run is flip-flopping on northward extent and timing

of the system. This is a physical embodiment of the large

differences in ensemble clusters at the moment. Each cluster has

varying types, amounts, and locations of precipitation. So, at

the moment, there is a signal for anything from rain, to snow,

to freezing precipitation, but nothing meaningful can be

discerned from each signal at this time. Continue to monitor the

forecast for any updates.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025



Ongoing wintry mix will continue. Showery nature of

preciptiation will lead to rapidly changing conditions and

variable precipitation types including snow, sleet, and light

freezing rain. This activity will change to all snow as a band

moves through, most likely impacting KJLN and KSGF and a period

of 3-4 hours this evening. KBBG is will be on the southern edge

of this band and less likely to see impacts, so left mention at

a PROB30 for now.



Low level IFR to MVFR ceilings persist tonight, mainly at KSGF,

before VFR conditions move in.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ073-

     097-101.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for

     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Price

LONG TERM...Price

AVIATION...Titus