National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

FXUS63 KSGF 232330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
530 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 104 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

It`s a great sunny Thanksgiving Day across the Ozarks with
temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Westerly winds were
helping to put a little chill in the air, but not enough to keep
you indoors after eating turkey.

Relative humidities in the middle 20s percent range aided
spreading at least one wildfire this afternoon. Fire weather will
be the primary concerns as drought conditions are giving fuels
ideal characteristics for rapid spreads of ignited wildland fires.

Friday will see surface winds increase and become breezy with
limited to locally elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures
will climb into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees on the breezy
southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 104 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A dry cold front will move through the region Friday night into
Saturday morning. Winds will shift out of the north behind the
front with temperatures a bit more seasonable for Saturday and
Sunday. Highs around 60 are expected as surface high pressure
moves over the region and controls the weather through the

The surface high shifts southeast Sunday afternoon with
southwesterly surface return flow continuing through Monday and
Tuesday. This will produce another windy day for the region. Limited
to elevated fire weather concerns again the primary issue.

A cold front will move into the area next Tuesday night into
Wednesday and bring the first chance for precipitation in the 7
day period. There are some model differences in coverage and
timing however, will hone in on the forecast over the next few

Models are developing a surface low across the plains and
approaches Missouri Wednesday into Thursday. Again there are some
significant timing and coverage differences that will need to be
resolved before we can have more confidence in the forecast for
the middle to end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals through Friday.
Surface high pressure will move off to the allowing for increasing
southerly winds at the surface on Friday.