Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

133

FXUS63 KSGF 121743

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1143 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A G3-4 magnetic storm impacted the Earth overnight with

  Auroras noted in the sky above the Ozarks and areas farther

  south. Some impacts may occur to GPS and communications.



- A warm-up with temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected for

  today into Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record

  high temperatures are in jeopardy Friday and Saturday.



- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in

  the forecast for next Monday into early next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1055 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025



After looking at the 12z SGF sounding and upstream obs we

increased high temps today closer to the NBM 95th percentile

which leads to most places seeing highs in the upper 60s to

around 70 degrees. A few low 70s are likely west and south of

Springfield. Also decreased dewpoints some which leads to RH

values in the 25 to 35 percent range today however winds will

remain light out of the west northwest which will keep the fire

danger limited.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025



An area of weak surface high pressure was moving across the

region this morning under upper level northwesterly flow. This

was helping to keep clear skies and light winds across the

area. This pattern is expected to continue for several days with

a slow increase in surface and middle level temperatures

through the end of the week. With 850mb temperatures in the 8-10

degree range for today and then slightly warmer, in the 10-13

degree range for Thursday, this translates into afternoon highs

today in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees and in then upper

60s to middle 70s on Thursday. The warmest temperatures today

will be along the Arkansas state line and mainly west of Highway

65 for Thursday.



The one thing that may impact temperatures would be increases

in cloud cover, for today, this will be a non issue but Thursday

may see some cloud cover early which may hamper temperatures.

Otherwise, there is little to no expected weather impacts

forecast.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025



For the end of the work week into the start of the weekend,

Friday into Saturday, the middle level warming trend is

expected to continue with surface high pressure remaining and

southwesterly surface winds brining in additional warm air.

current indications from ensembles and NBM guidance suggest a

good potential for a much warmer than seasonal normal for this

period, note the climate section. Probabilistic analysis would

suggest highs from 10 to 15 degrees above normal with some

locations nearing 20 degrees above normal for the period with

high in the middle to upper 70s, depending on any cloud cover

that can be realized.



Synoptic models and ensemble guidance continue to show the

potential for showers and storms to begin next week. The remain

speed and strength differences that would have an impact of

type and severity of weather possible. Some synoptic models

have a negatively tilted upper low moving into the plains and

pushing a cold front with severe storms through the Ozarks

Monday afternoon with other moving the low into the northern

plains pulling most of the moisture north of the region and

brining only a very windy day to the area. In short, for next

Monday into Tuesday, the forecast remains uncertain and little

to no changes occurred for this period.



Interestingly, the CPC forecast for the 6-10 and 8-14 day

periods lean warmer and wetter. The wave 5 plots and

teleconnection pattern, with a +PNA/-NAO expected to persist

into the end of next week, would suggest a persistence

forecast. With the +PNA/-NAO pattern the center of the country

can see an active weather pattern with a semi-persistent ridge

over the west coast and Rockies and energy sliding either over

the ridge into the plains or undercutting the ridge and sliding

out of the Four Corners region, only to be replaced with the

next ridge/trough cycle after 5 to 7 days. This will be watched

going forward.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025



Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the

TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear until early Thursday

morning when high clouds will move in from the northwest. Winds

will remain less than 10kts out of the west to northwest until

Thursday morning when they turn southerly. No precipitation is

expected.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025



Record High Temperatures:



November 14:

KSGF: 78/1973

KJLN: 79/1964

KVIH: 75/1960

KUNO: 79/1999



November 15:

KSGF: 78/1964

KJLN: 77/1950

KVIH: 79/1955



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Burchfield

SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Burchfield

CLIMATE...Burchfield