Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

917

FXUS63 KSGF 150830

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

330 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot weather continues, coupled with scattered afternoon shower

  and thunderstorm chances (15-40%). Downburst wind gusts up to

  40-50 mph could occur with any stronger storms, especially

  Monday afternoon.



- A mid-week pattern change will initiate a cooling trend with

  better rain chances (30-60%) Wednesday into Thursday.

  Lingering low rain chances continue into the weekend.



- Despite the daily chances of rain, total rainfall will be

  modest this week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025



Water vapor imagery illustrates well the low pressure center over

the High Plains, the cutoff low over the southeast, and the steep

ridging in between. The Plains troughing is increasingly invading

the Ozarks, wrapping in moisture from the southeast and sending

fronts across Missouri. It will take a couple of days to fully break

us out from under our ridge, though.



Some mid-level forcing on the warm side of the stationary front in

the eastern Ozarks (and locally higher moisture) has allowed for

some isolated thunderstorms since yesterday evening in spite of the

capping inversion. These have lasted impressively late into the

night, but the latest CAM runs have them dropping off by 4 a.m.

Impacts have been few and far between, with only lightning and

perhaps some river rises in Shannon county due to a slow moving,

persistent cell.



We`ll start Monday morning with cloudy skies given all the mid-level

moisture that has been pulled into the area. High pressure will

still dominate for a couple of days, and we`ll see highs in the low

90s to start the week. The trough will push closer throughout the

day, and by late afternoon there will be enough moisture,

instability, and lift to support more thunderstorms primarily east

of Hwy 39. PoPs max out at 30% given scattered coverage, and the

main threats will be lightning and heavy rain. There is also the

chance for downburst wind gusts as these storms may be pulse-like in

nature. Total rain accumulations will be light for the majority of

the area.



Thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish around midnight.

Clouds will break up a bit overnight, and lows will be in the 60s.

The cold front currently across western Kansas takes its sweet time

to get here, so highs Tuesday will again be in the 90s (though low

90s, so we`re getting there). Since the pattern is expected to hold,

we will again see a 20-40% chance for scattered afternoon

thunderstorms once daytime heating causes us to reach convective

temperature. The most likely area shifts a bit to the west, toward

the incoming front, moreso along and west of Hwy 65.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025



Tuesday`s afternoon convection looks to wrap up by early evening

with too much mid-level warming inhibiting free ascent. The night

looks quiet with lows a tad cooler, especially in the eastern Ozarks

where cloud cover will be minimal.



The front approaches Wednesday morning (yay). It moves very slowly

and brings widespread 30-60% rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

Ensembles have totals through Thursday at between half and three-

quarters of an inch. This activity is not expected to pose a

flooding/excessive rainfall hazard, but rather be a nice fall

wetting rain that we could certainly use given current drought

conditions.



This system continues to impact the Ozarks through the weekend as it

throws a series of shortwaves across the area. The most

noticeable difference though will be the decrease in

temperatures, as models continue to indicate lower temperatures

around normal this weekend going into next week. While

interquartile NBM temperature spreads are still 5-6 degrees

beyond day 6, they are pretty small for the extended timeframe,

and in any case indicate temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than

the hottest days we saw in the last week. Here`s hoping fall

sticks around this time.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025



Isolated showers and storms currently in eastern Kansas and

east-central Missouri, but are not expected to impact

airfields. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the

period with broken ceilings at 15-20 kft and light winds.

Scattered thunderstorms expected after 18Z through 00Z which

may temporarily reduce CIG/VIS to MVFR.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025



Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within

5 degrees of a record.





Record High Temperatures:



September 16:

KSGF: 95/2019

KVIH: 96/1954



September 17:

KSGF: 96/1953





Record High Minimum Temperatures:



September 15:

KSGF: 74/1936







&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Nelson

LONG TERM...Nelson

AVIATION...Nelson

CLIMATE...Nelson