Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

103

FXUS63 KSGF 081932

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

132 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gusty winds of 25-35 mph today into Sunday.



- Much colder conditions early Sunday into early Tuesday. Highs

  in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s. Wind chills dipping

  into the single digits and teens Sunday night into Monday

  morning.

- Increasing confidence in elevated fire weather conditions on

  Tuesday, with dry and gusty conditions.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 132 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025



Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a high

amplitude ridge axis centered along the west coast. A strong

upper low was located just south of Hudson Bay in northern

Ontario with deep northwest and westerly flow aloft between the

ridge axis and upper trough. An embedded shortwave was located

over Nebraska/Iowa with strong upper jet energy(100 to 120kts)

from the ridge axis southeast into the Ozarks. At the surface, a

leading low pressure and frontal system over northern Missouri

into Kansas was aiding in some light precipitation, mostly north

of the CWA. A secondary frontal system was not far behind in the

northern plains. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s to

around 70 early this afternoon with mid and high level cloud

cover over the area.



Tonight-Sunday: The mid level clouds should shift east of the

area late this afternoon and early evening and we should clear

out until later this evening and overnight. The cold front

should move through this afternoon and evening and winds will

switch from the southwest to the northwest and become gusty with

some gusts over 30 mph possible. An Arctic air mass will then

start to move in behind the front overnight into Sunday.

Temperatures by morning will dip into the low to mid 30s.

Moisture does not look very impressive as the upper wave moves

in tonight into Sunday, but may have enough lift for some

sprinkles or light flurries late tonight into Sunday morning. We

are not expecting any accumulating rain or snow. Low clouds and

strong cold air advection will keep temperatures from rising

much on Sunday and we have highs in the upper 30s to low 40s for

most locations. Snow flurry and sprinkle chances should end

during the afternoon.





&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 132 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025



Cold weather into Tuesday morning: The coldest air of the

Autumn season so far will move into the area Sunday night. The

sky should clear out by the evening and we should see

temperatures dip into the teens to low 20s across the area. With

the Arctic high to our west by 12z Monday, we`ll still have

some northwest winds to the east of the high and will see wind

chills Sunday night into Monday morning in the single digits to

teens. This air mass will push over the area during the day

Monday and will keep the cold temperatures in place with highs

from the upper 30s to low 40s. Monday night will be another cold

one with lows back in the 20s. The coldest air will be in the

east where some teens will be possible in the valleys.



Warming trend, gusty winds and fire weather concerns: The upper

trough will shift off to the east coast on Tuesday and the

surface high will be to our southeast. Strong low level warm

advection is expected with the departure of the high, but the

dry air mass will remain in place. Highs should rebound into the

mid 50s to low 60s, but will see afternoon RH values dip into

the 30s. Gusty southwest winds with the low afternoon RH values

will bring some elevated to locally significant fire weather

potential to the area Tuesday afternoon. An upper ridge will

push east into the plains and Mississippi valley by the end of

the week with the potential of temperatures returning to the 70s

by Thursday and Friday.







&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025



For the 18z TAFS, A cold front was just about to enter the

western CWA. Surface low was located over northeast KS and will

push into northwest Missouri by the onset of the 18z TAFS. Some

mid level clouds and light precipitation was occurring with the

low and the southern extent of the precipitation will likely

remain north of the TAF sites. Winds will veer from light out of

the south at the onset to southwest near the front and then

become west and northwest behind the front and become gusty,

with some gusts up to 25 kts possible. These mid level clouds

should clear to the west by late afternoon or early evening,

however a secondary front will push through later during the

overnight and we`ll see stratus around 1500-2500 feet develop

with northwest to north wind gusts continuing into the remainder

of the TAF period. While we can`t rule out some sprinkles or

flurries Sunday morning with upper level energy moving in,

probabilities remain less than 30 percent at this time.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg

LONG TERM...Lindenberg

AVIATION...Lindenberg