333

FXUS63 KSGF 230500

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1100 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dense Fog Advisory in effect from midnight tonight through 10

  AM Sunday for southeast Kansas and portions of west-central

  Missouri. Visibilities may be as low as one quarter to one

  half mile at times.



- Widespread rain chances (60-90%) return Sunday night through

  Monday. Exact timing and amounts will continue to fluctuate

  due to some remaining uncertainty with this next system.



- Increasing confidence in below average temperatures by mid

  next week into Thanksgiving, and potentially continuing into

  next weekend. Highs in the 40s to near 50, and lows in the 20s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1251 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025



Persistent low stratus seemed to be trapped over the Ozarks

region under a leaned over surface ridge of weak high pressure.

With lingering moisture from recent rainfall, light northerly

winds and cool temperatures, limited improvement is expected

though the day. This fits rather nicely with one of our local

rules of thumb concerning weak upslope flow on the plateau under

northwesterly flow. in general, clouds linger until the 850mb

ridge shifts out of the region. Looking at short term models,

the 850 ridge takes its time to slide south of the area finally

making it into Arkansas by 12z Sunday morning.



As a result, lowered todays potential highs a few degrees with

highs expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s. If clouds do

break some, areas that see some sunshine this afternoon may

climb into the middle 50s before sunset this evening.



With the 850mb ridge moving slowly south and relative humidities

lingering near 100 percent, a renewal of low stratus or fog is

expected overnight and through sunrise Sunday. Will need to

monitor through this evening and overnight as to weather the

moisture will remain in the form of stratus or build down to the

surface in the form of fog (45-65% based on CAMS) as has

occurred the past few mornings. For now, thinking there will be

patchy areas of fog but not enough coverage to consider an

advisory for now.



With the expected cloud cover, overnight lows will likely

remain in the 40s for most locations though areas in valleys

and other low areas may see enough cold air down slope drainage

to dip into the upper 30s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1251 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025



Surface high pressure and a shortwave upper level ridge will

bring what may likely be the warmest day of the week for next

week with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Early morning cloud

cover will shift east along with the ridge and surface high

allowing for afternoon sun.



The ridge will be replaced with a storm system that will swing

out of the Four Corners region and into the plains during the

Day Sunday. This system will bring some rain potential to the

area late Sunday night into Monday morning. Rainfall amounts

have trended down a bit with this system with the main axis of

heavier rainfall having shifted slightly south of the Ozarks.

Still the Ozarks could see and additional 0.25 to 1 inch of rain

through the day Monday with he highest rain potential mainly

along and south of I-44.



The system that will bring rain to the region Monday will also

bring a pattern shift for the remainder of the week. A ridge

building into the Gulf of Alaska will produce upper level

northwesterly flow, allowing old Canadian and Arctic airmasses

to make through way south into the central plains Wednesday and

for Thanksgiving Day. Highs for the Holiday period will be in

the 40s, though some models and ensambles members bring

slightly colder air across the are. Current blends however have

middle to upper 40s for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day with

overnight lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s.



Friday into the weekend will see a warm up along with the next

chance for rain across the region. With departing high pressure

and a more zonal pattern aloft for the end of the week,

southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico associated with lee

cyclogenesis will swing a warm front into the area Friday night

into next Saturday. Rain may continue into next Sunday as well

as another potentially deep trough digs south of the west coast.

With the southerly winds will come more seasonable temperatures

with highs in the lower 50s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025



High confidence in fog developing overnight, with reduced

visibilities through Sunday morning at the TAF sites. This will

result in IFR to LIFR flight conditions. Visibilities as low as

a quarter to a half mile through a 4 to 6 hour period, before

gradually dissipating through mid-morning. Flight conditions are

expected to improve by late morning into the early afternoon as

clouds clear. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming

southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots into Sunday afternoon.





&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for MOZ055-056-

     066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Perez