Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

487

FXUS63 KSGF 061130

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

530 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM for areas along

  and west of Highway 65 for visibilities dropping below 1/4 mi.

  Central MO has the possibility of seeing freezing fog. If

  freezing fog does occur, elevated surfaces may become icy,

  travel with caution.



- Low precipitation chances 10-15% Sunday morning for areas

  along and north of I-44. Little to no accumulations are

  expected.



- Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal

  temperatures into next week. Average highs for this time

  period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather

  accompanies this pattern.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025



There is a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM for areas

along and west of Highway 65. Dense fog is expected to develop

this morning and visibilities could drop below 1/4 mi at times.

Areas near central MO have the possibility of seeing freezing

fog as their temperatures will hover near freezing early this

morning. If freezing fog does occur, elevated surfaces may

become icy, travel with caution.



The rest of today will feature partly cloudy skies with highs

reaching the lower 50s and light southerly winds just near 10

mph. Another shot of cold air will arrive overnight as a cold

front moves through. Lows will slowly drop into the mid 30s

tonight.



Winds turn northerly and become gusty by Sunday morning. Winds

will gust up to 25 mph by Sunday afternoon. As mentioned in the

previous discussion, there is still a slight chance (10-15%) of

drizzle following the frontal passage on Sunday morning. This

is mainly for areas along and north of I-44. The RAP shows that

low-level moisture is expected to be over 90%, there will be

plenty of lift from the passing front, and cloud ice will depart

as the front pushes southeast. We haven`t completely ruled

freezing drizzle out of the forecast for Sunday morning. It sill

appears that locations closer to central MO have the highest

chance to see freezing drizzle if it does occur. Right now,

hourly temperatures hover around 31 to 33 degrees from 7 AM to

10 AM Sunday morning up there. The confidence in freezing

drizzle occurring is still low at this time due to that two

degree temperature spread. The formation of freezing drizzle

will be dependent on how quickly temperatures begin to drop

behind the front. No other wintry accumulations or impacts are

expected at this time.



The rest of the day Sunday will be cloudy, breezy, and chilly

with temperatures only reaching the mid 30s by the afternoon.

Sunday night will be cold with lows in the upper teens to lower

20s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025



A surface high starts to build in to our north to start the next

week. Southerly flow returns on Monday and high temperatures

slowly warm back up for the middle of next week. Highs on Monday

will be in the 40s while Tuesday and Wednesday could feature

highs in the low to mid 50s. Towards the end of the forecast

period, we have a couple of shortwave features that will past

just to our north. These shortwaves will bring us a couple of

weaker fronts by mid-week. Right now, there isn`t precipitation

expected with those fronts. One front will move through on

Wednesday and another one will move through on Thursday

night. This means that our wind directions will be erratic for

the latter half of the week and will switch between southerly

and northerly each day and each day will feature partly cloudy

skies. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be similar in the

upper 40s to low 50s with wind gusts near 20-25 mph due to the

shortwave activity. Highs by Friday will be a bit cooler in the

30s due to the front that moves through on Thursday night.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025



Ceilings and visibilities will continue to drop over the next

couple of hours as fog continues to become more dense. A Dense

Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM for the TAF sites for

visibilities down to 1/4 SM. Ceilings are currently at IFR/LIFR

levels and will stay there until at least 15z. There could be a

few areas where freezing fog occurs if early morning temperatures

can get below 32 degrees. VFR returns by 18z but high clouds

will stick around. Southerly winds will remain light less than

10 knots. A cold front will move through late tonight turning

winds out of the north by Sunday morning and bringing MVFR

ceilings back to the area.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ073-097-

     101.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ066-067-

     077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Soria

LONG TERM...Soria

AVIATION...Soria