National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

FXUS63 KSGF 262009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
309 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

At early afternoon...a surface front extended from northwest
Missouri across southeast Kansas into a low over northeast
Oklahoma then into the southern Texas Panhandle. Ahead of this
front a very warm and moist air mass was in place. Surface
dewpoints had already climbed to around 70 degrees across eastern
Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Low-level water vapor imagery
was indicating that an elevated mixed layer...EML...had made it
into all but the south central Missouri area. In the upper
atmosphere...the main upper level system was located over Manitoba
with another system rotating around the base currently over the
northern Rockies.

The northern end of the front will continue moving eastward
overnight while the southern end lifts slowly northward. Any
convection that may form overnight would be near the MO-AR border
near the periphery of the EML.

This front will then lift northward as a warm front on during
the day Saturday as a surface low develops and moves east along
the front. The air mass in the vicinity of the front will be very
unstable with CAPEs near 4000 J/kg but the atmosphere will also be
initially capped. Once storms do begin to form on Saturday
afternoon...they are expected to quickly become severe.

Storms will initially form as discrete multicell or supercell
storms with large hail being the primary threat. These will
eventually evolve into more linear storms with damaging winds
becoming the primary threat. Given the environment...tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. However...these storms will be more likely as
storms develop near or cross surface boundaries.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

As the upper level system moves southeast out of Manitoba into the
Great Lakes region...the front will push eastward with the rain
ending by late Sunday afternoon. Monday actually looks good with
highs temperatures approaching the 80 degree mark. This should
continue into Tuesday.

Mid to late week looks unsettled as the region remains in
northwest flow with surface boundary meandering through the
region. Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal with
highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Low hanging cumulus was noted across much of the area early this
afternoon. This should continue through the rest of today and into
tonight. In fact we should hang right around VFR and MVFR
thresholds for all three sites through the evening. Overnight
cloud bases are forecast to lower a bit further as low level
moisture continues to increase. Can`t rule out a very isolated
thunderstorms, especially closer to the BBG area (continued the
VCs). Overnight winds will subside. There is still a low VIS
signal for all three sites. This was hard to ignore given
persistence in the models. Some improvement will be likely after
sunrise tomorrow, however, cloud bases should continue to be
rather low through the end of this cycle.