National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

FXUS63 KSGF 190028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Gusty winds were occurring today across the area, especially
along the plateau near Springfield where near wind advisory
criteria has been reached. An upper level trough was developing in
the western U.S. A surface front was stretching from a low in
central MN into eastern Colorado this afternoon with a tight
pressure gradient ahead of the low across our region.

This pattern shift to a main trough out west and strong ridge off
the east coast will provide our region with some active weather
over the next 7 to 10 days. Wind, thunderstorms, heavy rain,
possible flooding, sleet and freezing rain will all be in our
upcoming forecast. Pinpointing the heaviest axis of rainfall,
critical surface temperatures for duration of freezing rain and
the amount of ice will all be the forecast issues this week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Winds have been fairly strong today along the plateau near
Springfield with some gusts over 40 mph earlier. Lesser wind
speeds, but still gusty have occurred outside of the Springfield
area. Southwest flow aloft and a low level warm advection pattern
will lend to some showers spreading into the area tonight. There
will be some instability tonight into Monday as well and so we
will maintain our chance of embedded thunderstorms with the
showers. The overall pattern will not change much through Monday
and we should see an increase in moisture content across the area
with PW values increasing to around 1.40-1.60" range. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms will become more numerous in coverage,
however the better chances for heavy rain over the area will not
arrive until Monday night/Tuesday. The pressure gradient will
remain tight across the area on Monday and we should once again
see some fairly gusty winds throughout the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

The cold front will begin to sharpen up to our northwest on Monday
night and especially on Tuesday. There continues to be heavy rain
signals with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead
of the approaching front. Models are in decent agreement with
heavy rain across the area, but have some differences with the
the placement of the axis of heaviest rainfall and with the timing
of the below freezing temperatures which will have an impact on
the timing of freezing rain across the area.

The colder air mass will be fairly shallow, so for areas which
drop below freezing the precipitation type will likely be freezing
rainfall from the Tuesday night through Wednesday night time
period. At this time, our axis of the most freezing rain will be
along the I-44 corridor where up to 0.20" of ice will be possible.
These ice accumulations will likely change over the next several
forecast periods as newer model data comes in and the surface
temperatures along with qpf can be fine tuned.

After a brief respite from the heavy rain and winter weather
during the day on Thursday, the next wave of showers and embedded
thunder will move in on Thursday night and continue into Saturday.
Model QPF are averaging from 2 to 6 inches of QPF (northwest to
southeast) across the area through the forecast period. Despite
the moderate to severe drought across portions of our area, the
amount of heavy rain forecast will probably bring some flooding to
the region during the course of the next 7 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Sfc low pressure over ne CO/nw KS will move
to eastern IA by the end of the taf period with a trailing cold
front reaching northern MO and southeast Kansas. Gusty/strong
s-se winds will continue with low level wind shear in all tafs.
Lowering mvfr ceilings are expected along with increasing chances
for showers toward 12z.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg