Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

594

FXUS63 KSGF 031719

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1119 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Watching for a potential narrow band of light rain/snow this

  afternoon and evening across central Missouri. Current

  probability for precipitation is around 15-30% along and north

  of Hwy 54.



- Low (<10%) confidence in a brief timeframe for freezing

  drizzle Wednesday evening into the night as a cold front drops

  south.



- Periods of warm-ups and cool-downs this week, but for the most

  part temperatures remain near or below normal (46-52 F is

  normal range for early December).



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025



Current infrared satellite and surface observations depict an

area of low stratus and fog overspreading the eastern Ozarks

(West Plains is down to <1 mile visibility at times). This comes

as southerly surface winds modestly advect in moisture,

responding to rising heights aloft as evidenced by modest

ridging in mid-level water vapor imagery. With temperatures

observed in the middle 20s, this fog is likely supercooled and

freezing to untreated and elevated surfaces.





Freezing Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM for eastern Ozarks:



The Advisory is currently in effect for Taney, Ozark, Douglas,

Howell, Oregon, and Shannon counties. However, satellite imagery

shows the low stratus creeping into Wright, Dallas, and Dent

Counties as well. Due to a lack of surface observations in those

areas, it is uncertain whether the stratus is reaching the

ground as fog. Therefore, have extended the Advisory to those

counties out of an abundance of caution. The main concern is

untreated and elevated surfaces becoming slick from the freezing

fog. Any fog should lift by 9-11 AM.





Watching for a potential narrow band of light rain/snow today:



Attention then turns to a cold front that is currently analyzed

over the northern Plains states, quickly dropping south. As the

day progresses and high temperatures warm into the 40s, the

temperature gradient along the front will become sharper. Due to

the thermal wind relation, this will generate a strong 120-140

kt jet streak over the Midwest, downstream of a positively

tilted trough axis over the Rockies. Right entrance region jet

dynamics overtop the southward progressing cold front should

provide enough forcing for residual moisture to precipitate in

a band along the front. HREF members vary in which

frontogenesis plane initiates the precipitation, which has

implications on the timing, location, and precipitation type of

the band, therefore chances are currently low at 15-30%, though

there is medium-high (50-75%) forecaster confidence in a band

developing across central Missouri at some point this

afternoon/evening.



Timing and Accumulation Scenarios:



If the 700 mb frontogenesis plane is activated (favored by

RAP/HRRR), the band looks to develop within the northern

portions of Benton/Morgan counties this afternoon. With daytime

temperatures above 35 F, this would likely be a rain, maybe a

rain/snow mix if adiabatic cooling can occur. Therefore, slick

spots on roads would be the main hazards/impacts if snow does

fall.



If the 650 mb frontogenesis plane is activated (favored by FV3),

the band looks to develop after sunset with a little more

southward progression along and north of the Highway 54

corridor. In this scenario, the band would likely be snow as the

HREF puts a 50-80% chance of surface temperatures <32 F. A

rain-snow mix would still be possible (30-50% chance).

Therefore, this band has the best chance of snow accumulation

along roads, generally around a trace which would still be

enough for slick spots.



Some models favor both bands developing (favored by

NSSL/ARW/NAM). The same timings and impacts noted above would

still apply.



A caveat to the forecast, is the potential for a brief time

period of greater snowfall rates. The band orientation will be

parallel to 850-650 mb isotherms within those frontogenesis

bands, and there is a weak signal for some conditional

instability above those planes. If tapped into, we could get a

quick burst of snow accumulations from the band. The

NSSL/ARW/NAM models output up to half an inch of snow within

this band, with an MPAS model even showing a narrow corridor of

2-3 inches. This is a very low-end scenario given the forecasted

conditions, but it is a possibility (10-15% chance for greater

than half an inch from the HREF).





Low confidence in a brief freezing drizzle band this evening:



Once the cold front escapes south from the favored right

entrance region of the jet, the rain/snow band should cease.

However, low-level lift will still be present along the surface

front with high resolution models suggesting some residual

near-surface saturation. This could present a brief period of

freezing drizzle as the front droops south tonight. There is low

confidence in this as the three ingredients for drizzle (lift,

saturation, and lack of cloud ice) appear to be disjointed in

different ways among different models. If everything lines up,

though, we could see a brief band which would present a threat

for a glaze of ice on untreated and elevated surfaces making

travel somewhat hazardous.





Cold front passage will bring colder temperatures tonight:



The cold front will then usher in chilly air with lows tonight

dropping to the teens toward central MO, and the lower 20s along

the southern MO border.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025



15-20% chances for precipitation return Thursday night:



Models just cannot seem to make up their mind about Thursday

night into Friday`s system. While chances briefly decreased

below 15% recently, they are now back to 15-20%, likely

responding to medium-range guidance from the SREF coming into

range and suggesting a 30-50% chance of >0.01 inches of

precipitation. However, the chance drops below 10% for >0.10

inches of precipitation. Evaluation of medium-range and global

deterministic models reveals that the jet stream will be

situated across and just south of the area, which should squash

much of any appreciable precipitation south of the area. At the

moment, it looks like if any precipitation made it up into our

area, it would be light. Trends will continue to be monitored,

though, including the chance for freezing precipitation if we do

see anything fall from the sky.





Near or below normal temperatures prevail this week:



The general longwave pattern depicted by ensembles through the

week show a trough across the central and eastern CONUS, with

largely northwest flow over our region. The jet is expected to

also hover around our region, which opens the door for

fluctuations in temperature, though the northwest flow from the

poles will keep us mostly in near to below normal.



Following the strong cold front, highs Thursday will be chilly

again in the upper 20s toward central MO, to the middle 30s

along the southern MO border. Temperatures are then expected to

gradually warm-up once again with highs in the lower to upper

40s Friday, and the middle 40s to lower 50s Saturday which is

near normal. NBM temperature spreads then widen a bit beyond

Saturday as ensemble spread increases, but the mean temperature

trend suggests another cold front to move through before a

gradual increase to just near or above normal temperatures into

Tuesday. Highs sits around the middle 30s to lower 40s Sunday,

increasing to the 40s Monday, middle 40s to lower 50s Tuesday.

Lows are expected to hover in the lower 20s to lower 30s during

this whole timeframe.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025



Clouds are scattering out early afternoon, though will be

short-lived as additional cloud covers builds in this afternoon

ahead of a frontal passage. Expect IFR to MVFR flight conditions

with the frontal passage into this evening, with ceilings around

900 to 2500 feet. Additionally, there is a low chance (10-20%)

as depicted by the PROB30 groups for light wintry mix overnight.

Confidence is low in coverage and extent of chances. Flight

conditions gradually improve late in the TAF period.



Meanwhile, expect light southerly winds to become more west-

northwest with the frontal passage. Likely a more northeasterly

component at KBBG.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Price

LONG TERM...Price

AVIATION...Perez