Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

219

FXUS63 KSGF 142015

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

215 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above average temperatures (upper 70s to low 80s) today and

  Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record high

  temperatures are in jeopardy today and Saturday.



- 30-40% rain chances on Monday, mainly east of Highway 65.

  Higher rain chances (>50%) then return by the middle to end

  of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis shows a strong mid level ridge across the central

US with a upper level low off the California coast. Warm air

advection at 850mb continues across the area. While the 12z KSGF

sounding measured a 850mb temp of 13C, the soundings to the

southwest of the area all measured 850mb temps around 20C

(impressive for middle November). The low levels of the

atmosphere continue to moisten across our area as shallow gulf

moisture makes its way north. Other than some scattered cumulus

across far southwest Missouri, the area was mostly sunny which

has boosted temps to very warm levels. Early afternoon temps

were in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area with KVIH

already breaking their record as of 1pm. Surface dewpoints have

also climbed into the upper 50s.



This afternoon through tonight: Temps should top out near

records this afternoon (see climate section below) and then only

slowly fall off this evening and overnight. Southerly winds will

keep the lower trop mixed. These winds combined with higher

dews will keep low temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The

other factor will be the increasing cloud cover overnight which

will also act to keep temps well above average. While there was

some fog this morning, we are not seeing that signal for

tonight given the higher expected winds however can`t rule out

some patchy fog for a few valleys and wind protected areas.



Saturday: Several synoptic features will be occuring during the

day. Shortwave energy will be moving east/southeast through the

northern plains. This will force a dry frontal boundary to drop

south into Kansas and northern Missouri during the day. Ahead of

these features, the 850mb flow will be out of the west, ushering

in the 17-19C 850mb airmass which, as mentioned multiple times,

is near a record for middle November. This would easily lead to

temps a few degrees warmer than today. The limiting factor is

that it appears we will see more cloud cover, especially during

the first half of the day. Any breaks in the clouds or less

clouds would allow for temps to easily push past 80 degrees in

many areas. For now we are going with upper 70s to lower 80s

for highs across the area which will likely tie or break some

more records. The dry front will move through late in the day

however no precipitation is expected.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



Sunday: The cutoff low will eventually move into California and

the southwest US on Sunday. The front that moved through

Saturday evening looks to bring some drier air in, especially

across the northeast half of the area. There continues to be a

spread in highs with lower 60s across central Missouri and lower

70s across far southwest Missouri. Would expect some additional

changes to these temps as we get closer. No precip is expected

on Sunday.



Monday through Tuesday: Ensembles suggest that the energy out

west with begin to move into the Rockies and Central Plains as a

weaker wave on Monday. Winds will gradually switch to the south

as low pressure develops across Kansas. Therefore a warm front

may try to lift through the area which could cause a sizable

temperature difference across the area, depending on the frontal

location. Highs could either be in the upper 50s or lower 70s

therefore confidence in temps is low. The moisture return is

then the next issue with regards to precip chances Monday night

with the passage of the trough. The latest data continues to

suggest that areas east of Springfield will see the highest

chances of rainfall. While some of the AI and analog output

shows some severe potential (mainly south of the area), latest

instability and shear combos do not seem to overlap at this

time. Northerly winds should occur on Tuesday behind the frontal

passage. There remains a sizable temp spread as well on Tuesday

therefore expect changes to temps as we get closer.



Wednesday and Thursday: While there is still decent ensemble

variance, the overall synoptic pattern favors a strong and

deep trough across the southwest US by the middle of next week.

This would put the area in more of a southwest flow aloft which

in turn would allow for higher moisture to move into the area.

Latest ensemble means suggest PW values over 1 inch which is

near the 90th percentile. The latest ECMWF EFI Shift of Tails

tool suggests the potential for an anomalously high precip

event somewhere in the Oklahoma/Arkansas/Missouri region where

multiple rounds of rainfall occur. Still too early to get into

specifics however this pattern does favor heavy rainfall

wherever that baroclinic zone sets up. Rainfall chances are in

the 50-70% range for next Wednesday and Thursday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



Mostly clear skies are expected for most of the afternoon

however there are some ceilings around 4kft that could move into

BBG and JLN this afternoon however confidence is low in the

coverage. Mostly VFR should prevail through the period. Winds

will remain out of the south around 12kts with some gusts around

20kts. Winds will then gradually switch to the southwest on

Saturday morning. Low level wind shear is possible at the TAF

sites overnight.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 1234 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



For context, average high temps for middle

November are in the 57-60 degree range.



Record High Temperatures:



November 14:

KSGF: 78/1973

KJLN: 79/1964

KVIH: 75/1960

KUNO: 79/1999



November 15:

KSGF: 78/1964

KJLN: 77/1950

KVIH: 79/1955

KUNO: 81/1955



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Burchfield

CLIMATE...Burchfield