391

FXUS63 KSGF 241153

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

553 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread light to moderate rain continues through today and

  into tonight. Some breaks in precipitation are expected.



- Mostly dry with below-average temperatures Tuesday through

  Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 20s to

  low 30s.



- Additional rain chances (60-70%) next weekend.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 532 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025



As of 5AM, observations across the Missouri Ozarks showed

substantial improvements in visibilities as precipitation and

mid-level clouds extended east and overspread the Eastern

Ozarks. With that in mind, we went ahead and cancelled the

remainder of the Dense Fog Advisory. Some localized areas may

still see patchy lower visibilities this morning.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025



An upper level low continues to progress eastward through the

Plains, with a surface low over southeast Colorado as of 2 AM.

Satellite imagery clearly depicts the comma-head feature surrounding

this low pressure system, with the eastern extent over much of

Missouri.



Dense Fog Advisory This Morning:

Observations showcase a large portion of northern, eastern, and

southeastern Missouri experiencing visibilities below a mile,

with many in the 0.25-0.50 mile range as a stratus deck remains

over the region in places that aren`t yet seeing precipitation.

There remains a question of how far west this will extend as we

progress through the morning hours. For areas along and east of

Highway 63, REFS and HREF continue to highlight 60+%

probabilities of visibilities below 0.25 miles, leading to

higher confidence. Once you get west of Highway 63 towards

Springfield, those higher probabilities start to drop off and

become more patchy. Decided to trim the western tier of counties

out of the Dense Fog Advisory since they should remain more

patchy in nature before rain settles in. Counties along and east

of a Howell to Miller line remain in the Advisory until 9AM.



Precipitation continuing through today:

As the upper level trough has been making its way towards the

Ozarks, a 30-35kt low level jet developed over Kansas, with PVA

and increasing moisture (0.75-1.0 PWATS) beginning to push into

the area. As a result, light rain began making its way into

southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri after midnight, with the

"heaviest" rainfall showcasing an hourly rate of 0.15-0.20"/hr.

As the morning progresses, CAMs showcase a weakening trend in

the coverage, leading to some breaks in the rainfall. However,

as the surface low continues to make its way towards the area

late afternoon/evening, additional showers are expected to

develop and push through the area before exiting the CWA from

west to east tonight. Instability trends have gone down with the

more current guidance, but still can`t rule out a rumble of

thunder or two this afternoon/evening (20-30%). Forecast rain

totals remain on track with the previous forecast, with amounts

generally between 0.20 and 0.50. HREF LPMM continues to

highlight the potential for localized areas reaching 1.0-1.5

inches towards western/Central Missouri where training showers

are more possible, however most locations won`t see these higher

amounts.



Cooler and More Seasonable Temperatures Today:

With the increased cloud cover and precipitation limiting

warming potential, decided to lower temperatures several degrees

away from the deterministic NBM, with afternoon highs topping

out in the low to mid 50s. This is between 6-12 degrees cooler

than yesterday`s highs (with the exception of Vichy-Rolla that

stayed in the upper 40s), and is much closer to seasonable

temperatures.



Tuesday:

Cloud cover will slowly begin to clear from west to east

throughout much of Tuesday, with highs in the low 60s for much of

the area. Models depict an upper level shortwave digging into the

Midwest Tuesday afternoon/evening, with an associated cold front

sweeping through the area. However, moisture and lift remain slim to

none, so confidence in any precipitation occurring with this frontal

passage is low - therefore, kept pops in the 10-20% range.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025



The cold front that`s progged to sweep through the area on Tuesday

will usher in much colder, below-normal temperatures, with highs

remaining in the 40s to low 50s, and overnight lows in the 20s to

low 30s Wednesday through Friday. With the northwesterly flow aloft

and the dry airmass in place, not expecting any precipitation

through at least Friday afternoon.



As we head into next weekend, ensembles are beginning to hint at an

upper level trough pushing through the western CONUS, leading to

additional precipitation chances returning to the area. With this

being so far out still, there`s a lot of discrepancies leading to

low confidence in timing, intensity, amounts, and locations. NBM

temperature interquartile spread continues to show an almost 20

degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles (25th: 37

degrees; 75th: 56 degrees; NBM deterministic: 51 degrees), further

showcasing the uncertainty surrounding this system. We`ll need to

continue assessing model trends as we get closer to this time frame

to really narrow down potential scenarios.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 532 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025



Flight categories will deteriorate the further we progress into the

TAF period. Some light rain has been affecting the TAF sites during

the early morning, with off and on showers expected to continue

through the remainder of the day before tapering off tonight. There

exists a low chance (20-30%) of isolated thunder occurring later

this afternoon and evening, however due to the low confidence,

decided to keep it out of the TAFs for now. By this afternoon, all

sites should be down to IFR status, with LIFR likely towards the end

of the period.



Otherwise, southeasterly winds between 8-12kts will become light

again tonight.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Melto

SHORT TERM...Melto

LONG TERM...Melto

AVIATION...Melto