Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

065

FXUS63 KSGF 060451

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1151 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area

  this afternoon and evening.



- More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (50-70%)

  Sunday afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rainfall may

  accompany this activity.



- Additional rain chances (20-60%) Monday through Friday of

  next week. Highest chances in the afternoon and evenings.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025



A breakdown of the upper-level ridge has allowed for the

development of a handful of scattered small showers across the

forecast area this afternoon, which are expected to continue

through the evening hours. Guidance depicts MUCAPE values

topping out between 1000-2000 J/kg this afternoon, particularly

along and east of Highway 65 where cloud cover has been less

prevalent. Some updrafts may get tall enough to produce

lightning, though very weak shear will limit the longevity of

any particular storm. We have left low-end PoPs (20-40%) in the

forecast overnight as some CAMs suggest this activity festers

through this period.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025



Sunday:

Sunday features the highest precipitation chances of the

forecast period, with 50-70% PoPs in the afternoon and evening.

As the slow-moving upper-level disturbance transits the region,

moisture convergence ahead of a diffuse cold front will spur

more widespread convective initiation across the forecast area.

Diurnal heating is progged to push afternoon MUCAPE values into

the 2500-3500 J/kg range with 0-3 km theta-e differences of

20-25 deg C, which may allow for a few stronger storms capable

of producing small hail and wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. Shear

still looks to be limited again, so individual storms will

struggle to stay organized. PWATs in the 1.6-2.0" range will

allow for efficient rainfall, and slow storm motions may allow

for locally heavy rainfall. Widespread flooding is not expected,

however.



Monday-Friday:

Little change to the ensemble suite was noted for the long-term

forecast; that is, a quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft with

transient embedded shortwave disturbances will allow for

intermittent rain chances throughout the week. NBM percentiles

support climatologically average temperatures each day, with

highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025



VFR flight conditions through tonight. Increasing chances for

scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon

into the evening. Periods of MVFR to IFR flight conditions as a

result of reduced visibilities and ceilings. Winds out of

southwest at 5 to 10 knots.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Perez