434

FXUS63 KSGF 300900

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

300 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy winds will result in near single digit wind chills this

  morning as colder air moves into the Ozarks.



- A system will bring a 35-70% chance of precipitation Monday

  into Monday night. Models favor snow for precipitation type,

  but a wintry mix of snow, light freezing rain, and/or sleet

  could occur over far south-central Missouri. Confidence in

  precipitation amounts is limited, with potential for some

  areas to only see trace amounts.



- Precipitation chances trending upward for Thursday night into

  Friday, currently at 30-40%. Model spread is currently still

  too high to put any certainty to forecast precipitation types.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025



Breezy winds & cold air result in near single digit wind chills:



Current temperature observations put SW MO/SE KS down into the

middle 20s as a strong surface cold front continues to surge

east of the Mississippi River Valley. Continued cold air

advection will further bring temperatures down into the lower

20s early this morning. With winds continuing to be around 10-15

mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph, wind chills this morning are

expected to be in the upper single digits to lower teens.



While winds will diminish after this morning, persistent

northerly flow along with polar surface high pressure traversing

the Midwest will keep the weather dry with high temperatures

quite cold today in the lower 30s. Then, lows tonight continue

to be cold in the upper teens to middle 20s within a continued

northerly flow regime.





30-40% chance of scattered bouts of precipitation mid-day Monday:



The dry weather will not last long, though, as another system

currently over the northern Rockies (as evidenced by water vapor

satellite imagery) is already poised to move through the region

Monday into Monday night.



The forecast for this system, particular for our area in the

Ozarks, continues to be tricky as we get positioned between the

two "cores" involved with this system. The first core is

associated with the shortwave trough diving in from the northern

Rockies, bringing a swath of snow to KS/NE/north MO/south IA.

The second core is associated with subtle shortwave energy

lifting out of Mexico and the Gulf along the baroclinic zone

established along the coast. This core is expected to bring

rain in east TX and LA, with freezing rain in Arkansas. This the

MoKsArOk and Ozarks region in the middle of the northern and

southern system. Due to strong low-level warm air advection and

downstream positive vorticity advection ahead of the cores, air

will still be rising in this "in between" region, but given a

sharp dry layer around 850-600 mb in model soundings, there is

uncertainty in how much precipitation can be generated from this

rising air during the day Monday.



With all that context, as the broad synoptic-scale ascent begins

late Monday morning into the mid-afternoon hours, coverage of

any precipitation will be determined by how quickly the low-

levels can moisten. For that reason, there is only a 30-40%

chance for precipitation during this time frame. If the strong

700 mb warm air advection can overcome low-level dry air, we can

expect scattered showery precipitation to increase in coverage

across the area. With the HREF giving a 50-100% chance for <32 F

across the area, much of this will be in the form of light snow

save for areas in extreme south-central Missouri (generally

along the Highway 160 corridor) where light sleet and/or

freezing rain is possible as a warm nose advects over the below

freezing surface temperatures.



Most model guidance suggests these snow/sleet/freezing rain showers

would be light in nature, creating little accumulation late

Monday morning through mid-afternoon. That said, some wintry

driving conditions would be experienced beneath any of these

showers, so using caution while driving is recommended.





40-70% chance for a band of snow to move through later Monday:



The better chance for precipitation comes late Monday afternoon

into the early overnight hours as the upper-level shortwave

trough traverses Missouri. Within the jet core, strong 700 mb

frontogenesis looks to force a SW to NE oriented band of snow

that will quickly move from west to east between 4 PM and

midnight.



Models differ on the southward extent of this band, but

generally, the further north toward central MO you go, the

better chance for greater snow accumulations with the snow band

as its further into the colder air. The NBM 25th-75th

accumulations range from 0 to 1 inch for much of the area,

increasing to 0.5-2 inches along and north of Highway 54. 10% of

the model members show a worst case scenario of 2-3 inches

along and north of Highway 60.



CAMs are also not overly bullish on rates with this band due to

the quick-moving nature. That said, 0.5-1 in/hr rates would be

the upper-end of the spectrum, which could put down some light

road accumulations for the evening commutes.





Potential for freezing rain and/or sleet in south-central MO:



During this period, light sleet and/or freezing rain will still

be possible across extreme south-central MO. Analysis of

HREF/REFS sounding plumes favors sleet a bit more than freezing

rain as lapse rates within the warm nose are a bit more

isothermal, leading to a deeper near-surface cold layer.

Nevertheless, a mention of freezing rain is still warranted if

any shifts in the storm tracks occur.



If freezing rain does occur, amounts of 0.01-0.05" seem most

plausible, which is certainly enough for slick surfaces, so

those along the Highway 160 corridor will need to be extra

cautious if out driving.





&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025



Below normal temperatures continue for most days next week:



Following Monday`s system, NBM temperature spreads point to

continued below normal temperatures, save for a brief warm-up

Wednesday as heights rise behind the exiting system. Highs

Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 30s to lower 40s, with

lows in the lower to middle 20s. Wednesday is the brief warm-up

to near normal temperatures in the 40s. Wednesday night looks to

have the coldest temperatures as a dry cold front surges south

through the area. Lows look to be in the middle teens to lower

20s, with wind chills near 0 F toward central MO. Thursday`s

highs do not get very warm with temperatures in the upper 20s to

middle 30s. Another warm-up is then possible Friday into

Saturday, but that will depend on how the next system evolves at

the end of the week.





Confidence increasing in next system Thursday night into Friday:



In previous discussions, we have mentioned how model spread was

high late in the week, but a signal in deterministics being

present for another system at some point. Well, models are

starting to converge a little bit, with the best chance for the

next system to move through Thursday night into Friday (30-40%

chance). While we`re getting a better idea of rough timing, LREF

sounding profiles are still all over the place, revealing little

certainty in what type of precipitation we could see from this

system. Keep in touch with subsequent forecasts for more

details.





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025



Current satellite imagery and surface observations show a

blanket of MVFR cigs at all TAF sites, but with a clearing and

lifting trend that past few hours. Based on satellite trends,

cig conditions should continue to improve through 13Z.

Conditions have a medium high (70-80% chance) of improving to

VFR by 13Z, but some rapid refresh models want to hold onto MVFR

cigs, especially at SGF. Have included a TEMPO for this

potential, though given current satellite trends with clouds

clearing from NW to SE, would lean more towards VFR becoming

prevalent after 13Z.



Otherwise, winds will stay at 10-15 kts out of the northwest

with some gusts up to 20-25 kts through 13Z. Winds are then

expected to shift to northeasterly after 00Z.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Price

LONG TERM...Price

AVIATION...Price