Expert Forecast Opinion

781
FXUS63 KDTX 190838
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
338 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory today through Tuesday morning for a
combination of winter hazards.

- Snow showers today expected to produce 1-2" inches of
accumulation. Best chances for higher amounts will be between M 59
and I 94 where a lake effect band looks to develop as well as the
northern Thumb where a second band pushes through.

- Frigid and blustery conditions today with potential for snow
squalls and winds gusting 40+ mph.

- Dangerously cold wind chills of -5 to -15F tonight into Tuesday
morning.

- Another round of accumulating snow on Wednesday, impacting the AM
commute.

- Another arctic outbreak looks to impact the region this weekend.
Single digit high temperatures with lows below zero will be
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday morning
for the combination of snow, blowing snow, possible squalls, wind
gusts to around 40 mph, and dangerous wind chills. Bulk of the
forecast remains on track with most adjustments in terms of location
and timing of POPs and snow amounts as we try to refine the lake
effect bands with additional hires model data.

The low pressure system is currently centered over eastern Lake
Superior with an arctic cold front now beginning to enter southern
MI from the west. Timing of the front through SE MI should be around
11-13Z. In advance of the front we have lingering light snow after
the exit of the leading area of synoptic snow overnight. Radar
returns and obs support light snow with minimal accumulations
through about 12Z. Arctic front will then open the door for the next
round of snow showers as it pulls the ongoing SW to NE oriented lake
effect convergence axis across lower MI. Deep mixing depths with
strong low level lapse rates will aide in stronger showers
developing in the wake of the front. Though model sounding show
mixed layer has lowered slightly to around 8kft (vs the 9-10kft
advertised previously), this will still be ample depth to result in
a decent lake effect setup today and tonight. Initially today
activity will be a bit more widespread as the lake convergence gets
pulled through oriented N to S. Then westerly flow sets up which
will then reorganize the convergence axis W to E in the typical area
from around M59 south to I94. Though moisture quality will not be
great with only around 1 g/Kg of specific humidity in the mixed
layer, Omega will be on the stronger side as will lapse rates. With
strong winds gusts today to around 40 mph, blowing and drifting of
snow will be likely which will reduce visibilities. It will also
make for potential snow squalls with any stronger showers that
develop. Overall snow amounts are on par with the inherited forecast
with mainly a refinement to narrow the corridor of best lake effect
banding. In addition, slightly higher amounts and pops have been
given to area north of M46 as hires models have been consistent the
last few runs with the trailing trough axis organizing an additional
convergence band from northern Lake MI and Lake Superior getting
pulled into the region.

Though the mixed layer shrinks overnight to around 4-5kft, the
westerly flow should continue to advect moisture along convergence
boundary which will keep clouds and light snow going through the
night. Amounts should be subdued as the band wavers around slightly
and conditions are not as favorable with cold air advection forcing
the moist layer out of the DGZ leading to more powdery snow flakes.
Some locations could still see up to an inch overnight with the
persistence of the band.

The lake effect cloud cover is going to help keep wind chills values
from cratering between I69 and I94 but the airmass will be so cold,
lows are still forecast into the single digits under the clouds so
wind chills in that region should still drop to around -5 to -10F.
The Thumb region and locations around the Ohio border will have
clearing skies and should get down to -10 to -15F. In addition, wind
chills today and Tuesday should be around 0F making for nearly 36
hours of possible negative wind chills.

High pressure sliding through the Ohio Valley Tuesday in addition to
a lack of upper level energy advancing through the trough aloft,
will lead to a brief reprieve in snow chances (outside of any
lingering light snow in the lake effect band). This will be short
lived as the next southward diving jet brings another shortwave
through the region Wednesday morning through the evening. Better
moisture quality and period of isentropic ascent ahead of the low
will provide a chance for accumulating snow on the order of 1-3
inches. Looking into next weekend, there looks to be another round
of arctic air, colder than the current airmass, which could lead to
high temps in the single digits with overnight lows below 0F.

&&

.MARINE...

Mature low pressure slides along the far northern Lake Huron
shoreline into eastern Ontario this morning. Strongest gradient
response occurs over the southern Great Lakes during this time
bringing potential gales across Lakes St Clair and Erie through the
afternoon. For Lake Huron, gale potential remains tied to the arctic
cold front offering a 3-5hr window to see gusts in excess of 34kts.
Given its proximity to the low center, the far northern waters
continue have the lowest chance to see gales with the bulk of
strongest winds expected over the central/southern open waters. Due
to the stronger winds and cold airmass, heavy freezing spray is
likely in all non-ice covered waters of Lake Huron. While gales
taper off by Monday evening with the departure of the clipper, the
region will remain under broad troughing over the eastern continent
allowing additional systems to track over/near the region
maintaining at least moderate winds (>20kts), snow showers, and
freezing spray through most of the week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

AVIATION...

Increasing absolute vorticity within reinforcing polar trough
resulted in large scale lift, top down saturation and seeder feeder
to Southeast Michigan this evening. QPF amounts will remain
relatively light, but high liquid to snow ratios should continue to
yield snow accumulations. Precipitation is expected to transition to
snow shower activity beginning after 08z in response to cold air
advection between 4.0 and 10.0 kft agl. Convective heights are
expected to increase markedly with potentially convectively unstable
lapse rates between 3.0 and 7.0 kft agl. The potential will exist
for intermittent heavy snowfall rates and potential snow squalls
particularly in the 10-15z time window. The other story is west
winds increasing during the late morning gusting to 35 knots. Will
maintain prevailing groups for IFR visibility restrictions with
BLSN. The potential does exist, however, for I 94 or I 96 lake
effect banding after 18z and continuing into Monday evening.

For DTW...Widespread light snow is expected to transition to snow
showers between 11-15z some of which may be heavy with snow squalls.
West winds will increase in excess of 30 knots with restrictions to
visibilities due to BLSN. Lake effect banding is likely late Monday
afternoon and Monday evening with continued uncertainty and low
confidence in duration before bands should drift northward.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Monday.

* Moderate to exceed crosswind thresholds Monday morning and
afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
this evening for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for
LHZ362-363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for
LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for
LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening
for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....CB


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.