Expert Forecast Opinion

783
FXUS63 KDTX 071033
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
633 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms today
through the weekend. Better coverage of showers and storms possible
Monday.

- Temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend, with highs
mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few pockets of very low stratus and fog will steadily lift as
mixing depth improves with daytime heating. Some lingering areas of
IFR/MVFR transition to VFR within a broader diurnal cu by the midday
period. There remains a lower probability for a limited coverage of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Confidence in
occurrance at any one location remains quite low, precluding a
defined mention at this stage. Forecast will continue to highlight
VFR conditions holding tonight within some lingering pockets of
higher based cloud. Winds remain modest from the south through
tonight.

D21/DTW Convection... Very low potential for a thunderstorm Friday
afternoon and evening.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling aob 5000 ft today. Low tonight.

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Patchy fog, locally dense in spots, will remain possible through the
early morning hours, especially closer to south-central MI where
upstream observations highlight the region of reduced visibility.
Any fog development will dissipate quickly after sunrise with
daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing.

Broad troughing remains in place across the Great Lakes today with
relatively weak large-scale forcing overall. A subtle shortwave is
progged to track across southern Michigan during the afternoon and
combined with weaker boundary layer convergence, will provide
sufficient ascent for isolated or scattered shower and thunderstorm
development as diurnal instability builds towards 1000 - 1500 J/kg.
Deep-layer shear remains modest, generally 20-25 knots through 6km,
with very weak low-level flow. This will favor isolated or loosely
organized multicell convection with limited thunderstorm longevity.
The severe weather threat remains very low, although steep low-level
lapse rates and elevated DCAPE values could support a highly
localized strong wet microbursts with any robust development.

Isolated shower chances continue overnight as another shortwave
traverses the region, but loss of daytime heating should limit
coverage and intensity.

A weak cold front will be the focus for additional shower and
thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon and evening. Under a
similar environment with CAPE values around 1000-1300 K/kg and modest
deep layer shear, this will again favor disorganized convection and
a very low severe weather threat. Additional shower and thunderstorm
chances may persist Sunday, but forcing will be much more ill-
defined, bringing low confidence for shower chances.

A better signal exists for thunderstorms Monday as strengthening
southern flow across the Plains establishes a more pronounced
moisture transport regime. Moisture convergence with the elevated
instability brings higher end chances for MCS development across the
Plains that will be capable of progressing into portions of the Great
Lakes. Uncertainty remains regarding eventual timing, track and
degree of maintenance.

Temperatures through the forecast period will remain seasonable with
highs around the mid 80s through the weekend, settling into the low
80s by the midweek period.

MARINE...

A series of frontal boundaries will bring the continuation of
showers and some thunderstorms to round out the week and into the
weekend. Most of the activity will be mainly confined south of the
northern Lake Huron zone, aligned with the frontal boundary. Winds
generally remain light and variable outside of any thunderstorm
activity. High pressure building in over northern portions of the
area will keep things dry through the morning, before another cold
front moves through Friday into Saturday. This will bring yet
another chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. Winds on Friday will remain lighter as the flow becomes
more southerly. Periods of unsettled weather will continue to be
possible going through the weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......SS

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at www.weather.gov/detroit.