Expert Forecast Opinion

919
FXUS63 KDTX 061942
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
242 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog will impact portions of the area tonight.

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening,
then again on Saturday. THere is a low risk of severe weather with
these storms.

- Warm and windy on Saturday with southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45
MPH.

- Above average temperatures are expected through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The cluster of showers/isolated thunderstorms now advancing across
the Saginaw Valley are tied to a mid level short wave impulse along
the leading edge of a plume of elevated instability. A stronger wave
tracking into central Lake Michigan this afternoon will track across
nrn Lower Mi this evening. The trailing moist axis combined with the
advection of weak elevated inability ongoing across srn Mi will
support additional convective development this evening. A strong warm
front positioned along the MI/OH border will slowly be drawn
northward during the night under increasing southerly flow preceding
a surface wave lifting across the western Great Lakes. The warm
sector south this boundary is characterized by sfc temps in the 70s
and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Weak sfc based cape within this
warm sector will attempt to push into Lenawee/Washtenaw counties this
evening prior to nocturnal cooling, at least increasing the risk of
a severe storm given the strong wind fields. Otherwise, evening
convection will largely be elevated atop a very stable boundary
layer, suggestive of hail as the main severe weather concern. With
upper 50/lower 60 degree sfc dewpoints advecting into Se Mi along the
warm front, areas of dense fog are likely to persist prior to the
arrival of the warm sector, especially within the Lake Erie/St Clair
marine layer. The northward advancing warm front will also lead to
rising temps during the night.

An approaching upper level trough axis will drive an associated cold
front across Se Mi late Saturday afternoon. There is strong
agreement among hi res guidance and ensemble members indicating lead
short wave features driving another round of convective Saturday
morning. The coverage and duration of this will determine severe
convective chances and wind gust potential later in the day. Ample
warm moist air will remain in place in advance of the cold front,
easily supporting highs in the 60s. A strongly sheared environment
will remain in place. At this point, it is questionable at to
whether there will be enough surface based instability to balance
the shear, especially if early day convection becomes a little more
widespread. For this reason, most of Se Mi remains in a marginal
risk for severe wx. Daytime mixing potential will also support windy
conditions. Available probabilistic guidance suggests enough
uncertainty as to whether mixing depths adequately reach into the 40-
45 knot low level wind fields to hold off on advisory criteria wind
gusts attm.

Respectable yet shallow post frontal cold air advection will drive
temps into the 30s Sun night. Rebounding mid level heights and
steady warm air advection within west-southwest winds will result in
a steady warming trend Sunday into Monday under dry conditions.
Highs in the 60s look highly probably on Monday, with some ensemble
members still indicating a few locals reaching 70.

&&

.MARINE...

Ongoing progression of a warm front across the Great Lakes will
continue to advect in higher surface moisture and given ongoing
dense fog across Lake Erie and Lake St Clair and factoring in
expanding moisture, have opted to expand the marine dense fog
advisory across all of Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay and extend the
ongoing advisory for locations south. Some improvement with
visibilities will be possible with any rain showers, however,
widespread improvement to conditions will be more likely with the
passage of a cold front which will move across the Great Lakes
through tomorrow afternoon.

Widespread rain showers with a low chance for some embedded
thunderstorms will move in this evening across Lake Huron. A lull in
activity overnight, with a second round of rain showers and
thunderstorms chances expected through tomorrow morning ahead and
along the cold front. There will be a low-end chance for gusts to
reach gales along and immediately behind the cold front tomorrow
afternoon, but given the brevity for gale potential, will preclude
and issuance of gale products. Any stronger thunderstorms will have
the capability to produce gusts in excess of 34 knots.

Some additional low end chances for gust to gales will be possible
Sunday morning and afternoon, but a near neutral thermal profiles
brings low confidence if stronger winds aloft will make it to the
surface. A strong warm front then pushes through Monday morning,
which will bring breezy southwest flow with gusts around 30 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Probabilities show two time periods with the greatest/more
widespread rain potential; this evening and then again Saturday
morning. 12-hour rain totals are most likely to fall into the one
quarter to three quarters inch range. Some totals up to an inch are
possible across the Saginaw Valley and thumb regions. While this
will result in rises on area rivers, no flooding is forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

AVIATION...

Aviation conditions are dominated by the IN/OH front and its
connection to Midwest low pressure this afternoon through tonight.
The primary surface low is slow to move northward which leaves the
front subject to delayed northward progress through Lower Mi due to
cool easterly flow off the eastern Great Lakes. This combination
prolongs the duration of LIFR/IFR ceiling and visibility across
Lower Mi while showers and a rumble of elevated thunder move west to
east over the region. Midwest low pressure finally moves far enough
north to pull the warm front into the northern Great Lakes late
tonight leading to rapid warm sector improvement across SE Mi into
Saturday morning. Observations this afternoon are clear to scattered
VFR toward the Ohio River as evidence of warm sector improvement,
although some form of LLWS/low level jet driven MVFR stratus is
likely to fill in toward sunrise followed by surface wind gusts
reaching into the 30 kt range. There is also a late night break in
shower/storm activity until after 12Z when and band of convection is
expected to move in ahead of the inbound Midwest cold front.
Showers/storms reach MBS around 13Z and then fill in to the south
and east during the morning.

For DTW... Persistent LIFR ceiling/visibility is the primary weather
concern this afternoon and evening. Showers also increase across the
area while thunderstorm coverage remains low overhead or directed
father north through the evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and tonight.

* High for ceiling and visibility below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM this
afternoon and evening.

* Low for thunderstorms at DTW this afternoon and evening.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ063-069-070-076.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ075-083.

Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AA
HYDROLOGY....SC
AVIATION.....BT


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