Expert Forecast Opinion

307
FXUS63 KDTX 110358
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1158 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory is in effect tonight from Midnight to 7am.

- Frost is likely again Monday night.

- The next chance of rain arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- Above normal temperatures possible next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail through the taf period as conditions remain
dry and stable within the lowest levels. Intervals of higher based
cloud within the 7 to 10k ft layer will drift through at times
overnight and Monday as mid level energy funnels across the region.
Winds becoming north-northwest overnight into Monday as high
pressure builds across the northern great lakes. Advancement of the
high to the east will bring a wind shift toward the east Monday
evening, before becoming light and variable.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms through TAF period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

DISCUSSION...

Strong surface anticyclone and deep midlevel subsidence will build
out of Manitoba southeastward into the Great Lakes region through
early Tuesday. A very dry low level airmass, PWATS at less than a
1/3rd of an inch, combined with deep midlevel subsidence will ensure
relatively quiet weather the remainder of today and Monday.
Southeast Michigan will still reside within the main composite axis
of broad upper level troughing. This supports intervals and periods
of high cloudiness as individual shortwave maxima pivot and work
through the trough.

One such very low amplitude feature will work out of
Northeast Wisconsin through the Saginaw Bay region early this
evening. Midlevel cooling between 6.0 and 12.0 kft agl may good
enough for a rouge high based shower but the potential impact or
coverage is too low to include. Moisture progs in/around Great Lakes
is always a difficult endeavor, but model solutions (hires NAM and
GEM) suggest a variable coverage of thin high cloud for tonight.
With subzero 850mb temperatures, the forecast will call for lows in
the 30s for most areas outside of the urban heat island. Despite a
gradient wind that may remain light and sustained out of the north
tonight, cannot discount microclimate cooling potential and will
issue a Frost Advisory tonight for areas north of I 94 including
Washtenaw county. Another cold, below normal night is anticipated
Monday night with the center of high pressure building overhead.
More Frost or Freeze headlines may be needed.

Model data continues to support categorical precipitation chances,
greater than 75%, late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. A
notable aspect of the Tuesday system are the low dewpoints (40s)
holding and likely wetbulbing at least through the 00-06z timeframe
Wednesday. Latest forecast soundings support higher static stability
holding in the lowest 3.0 kft agl with largely moist adiabatic lapse
rates between 900-500mb. The potential will exist for thunder, but
no strong or severe weather is anticipated. A more compact jet
streak structure and tight curvature of the upper level jet streaks
overhead Tuesday suggests some moving parts yet on the timing and
duration of the best forcing. There is at least good support for a
period of stronger low level frontogenesis with the warm advection
surge. Confidence is low on the expected QPF amounts.

Pattern change then looks to happen Friday and into the beginning of
next weekend as high amplitude ridge structure advances through
central North America. Still some uncertainty with how progressive
the ridge becomes which may cause flow to become more zonal locally.
The current forecast suggests daytime highs climbing into the 70s.

MARINE...

High pressure continues to drift over the region through Monday
maintaining lighter winds. Next low is set to sweep across the Great
Lakes late Tuesday bringing widespread showers and a few chances for
thunderstorms mainly over the southern Great Lakes. In advance of
the system, southerly winds strengthen though with ongoing warm
advection, thermal stability over the waters is expected to cap peak
gusts around 30kts. Moderate NNW winds follow Wednesday as cooler
air filters back in behind the low however a diminishing gradient
should keep winds under 30kts. High pressure briefly follows to
close out the work week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-
068>070-075.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......KDK

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at www.weather.gov/detroit.