Expert Forecast Opinion

771
FXUS63 KDTX 270350
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1150 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers gradually diminish in coverage overnight as much colder
air moves into the area.

- Notably colder conditions will exist Friday.

- Warming trend into the weekend with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...

Notably colder northerly flow overnight will maintain a canopy of
low stratus at mainly MVFR restrictions. Some gustiness to the wind
expected, potentially up to 25 knots at times. Mixed signal overall
on the pace and degree of clearing late tonight and early Friday.
Forecast will continue to highlight greater potential for scattering
of low stratus from north to south during this window. Assuming a
period of open sky emerges for Friday, then expectation remains for
prolonged VFR into the afternoon. Some thickening and lower of cloud
Friday evening as a mid level wave tracks through the region. This
may induce a limited coverage of very light snow showers or flurries
early Friday night.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for cigs below 5000 ft overnight. Low Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

DISCUSSION...

For this evening... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms
to expand along and in the wake of an advancing cold front as
stronger large- scale ascent increases in conjunction with an
approaching 700mb jet. The greater severe weather threat remains
conditional and partially tied to a narrow and limited time window
within the warm sector, focused mainly south of I-94.

Forecast soundings highlight impressive bulk shear values ranging
between 70-80 knots through the afternoon and evening, which is
readily apparent within storm relative hodographs, noting the
elongated extension from 1km through 6km, with a significant
streamwise component. That said, the conditionality of strong to
severe storms will be tied to the rapid cold frontal progression and
associated cold air intrusion which will undercut any late afternoon
activity and favor a transition from surface-based storms to
elevated convection. This creates a setup where any storm able to
briefly remain rooted within the warm sector just ahead of the front
could organize quickly and produce a window for severe weather. All
storm modes would be possible in this scenario, which includes an
isolated tornado, damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) and/or large hail
(2+ inches). However, the current response relative to the latest
12Z cams has been relatively muted under copious cloud cover
and under some scattered early afternoon rain showers.

Thus the more favorable evolution for today trends toward elevated
convection after the surface cold front moves through, which is now
just north of I-94. The primary hazard with this setup would be
large hail with any severe thunderstorm development. The
aforementioned strong kinematics in the 1-6km layer and mid-level
lapse rates 7-8C/km with modest MUCAPE does bring the potential to
see 2+ inch hailstones in a higher-end scenario through the evening,
again favored around I-94 and south. Some low end chances for hail to
an inch will be possible north through M59 where mid-level lapse
rates are weaker. Rain and thunderstorm chances end from north to
south between 8PM to around Midnight. Strong cold air advection in
the wake of the cold front drops overnight lows into the 20s.

Continued caa tomorrow with 850mb temperatures ranging from -5 to -
10C by 18Z will hold temperatures in the low 40s through the Metro
region down to the MI/OH border and into the low 30s to upper 20s
within the Thumb under the cooler northeast flow. Passage of a
shortwave late Friday through Saturday morning brings low chances
(20%) for snow showers. High pressure fills in across the Ohio
Valley on Saturday supporting dry weather with return flow from the
departing high then bringing in warmer air through the early week
period.

MARINE...

A cold front moves through the central Great Lakes today with
showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the boundary. Locally
higher winds/waves are possible in some storms, and a few could
intensify to meet thresholds for Marine Weather Statements and/or
Special Marine Warnings. Should storms intensify, strong wind gusts
of 34+ knots are possible, particularly during the evening hours for
the southern waterways (Lake St. Clair and western Erie). Post-
frontal cooling will be stark, but a decrease in low-level northerly
flow should limit nocturnal mixed-layer gustiness to 30 knots or
less. Modest on-shore post-frontal gradient winds still support
Small Craft Advisory level waves through Friday. Winds and waves
expected to remain in-check over the weekend with mainly dry
conditions into Monday.

HYDROLOGY...

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected through the evening
hours as a cold front sweeps through Lower Michigan. Consensus model
guidance QPF totals generally between 0.25 and 0.75 inches through
Thursday evening, with the higher totals near the southern Michigan
border. Highly localized totals nearing an inch or more cannot be
ruled out with any stronger thunderstorms. Highly localized flooding
in urban small streams and/or ponding of water in poor drainage
areas will be possible with any thunderstorms.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....AM

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