Convective Outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) provide the first advance notice that severe storms containing damaging winds, hail and tornadoes are possible. Emergency managers and other decision makers have been relying on these Outlooks for decades to provide critical days of lead time to prepare for severe weather. But until now, there has not been a way to differentiate days when especially violent or extreme weather is expected. That changed in February 2026 with the addition of hazard severity information, called Conditional Intensity, which allows SPC forecasters to highlight areas at risk for more intense, violent storms.
“High-end severe weather like intense and violent tornadoes cause by far the greatest loss of life and property, and this improvement allows us to highlight days when these specific threats are more likely," said Evan Bentley, Warning Coordination Meteorologist for NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. “Now, even when the probability of a severe hazard is low but the intensity is high, we can convey that threat.”
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| How Conditional Intensity will be displayed on SPC Outlooks starting March 3, 2026. A severe weather event occurring March 15-16, 2025 is used as an example. (Credit: NOAA) |
Convective Outlooks have long been a way for SPC forecasters to quantify the threat for severe weather; in other words, the number of tornadoes, large hail, or severe wind instances that will occur in a given area. Conditional Intensity adds another layer, highlighting areas that are more likely to experience more extreme events, such as violent tornadoes.
For example, a wind event that is anticipated to generate many reports but few significant severe reports could have high coverage probabilities but a lower conditional intensity forecast. Conversely, an event where only one or two high-end storms are anticipated to occur could have low coverage probabilities but a higher conditional intensity forecast, suggesting that any storms that do form could result in more extreme impacts. This is vital guidance when positioning resources and preparing citizens, because it allows for the differentiation between more and less destructive severe weather setups.
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| A chart showing the methodology behind the Conditional Intensity addition to SPC Convective Outlooks. (Credit: NOAA) |
This level of detail in convective outlooks was first explored during the 2019 Spring Experiment in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed in Norman, OK. The Severe Hazards Desk issued conditional intensity forecasts for tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail, in which areas corresponded to significant severe weather being unlikely, possible, or expected. Participants in the Spring Experiment laid the groundwork for the development of Conditional Intensity, which highlights areas of greatest concern for violent weather and a higher potential for societal impacts.
Since late 2021, SPC forecasters have been producing these forecasts experimentally, using multiple severe weather events as opportunities to improve these intensity forecasts. After over 4 years of the internal experiment, SPC forecasters have demonstrated skill in the ability to discriminate between the conditional intensities of different severe weather hazards and are ready to share this information officially through the Convective Outlook.
The Conditional Intensity addition to SPC Convective Outlooks is scheduled to appear in the Day 1 Convective Outlook on March 3, 2026. If a substantial severe weather threat exists on March 3, the implementation will be shifted to another day that same week.
Media contact: NWS Public Affairs, nws.pa@noaa.gov
