.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread precipitation is lifting across the area this
morning, mostly in the form of freezing rain. Air temperatures
are marginal (31-33 deg) for accretion on elevated surfaces,
while ground temperatures will likely be too warm for much ice
to form. This precipitation also seems to be keeping ceilings up
for the moment as guidance had widespread IFR to even LIFR
conditions in place by this time. Do think we should eventually
fall solidly into the IFR category through the morning hours.
Temperatures will likely rise solidly above freezing by mid
morning, and steadier rain will likely taper off some by midday
but there could still be drizzle and mist in place. Low ceilings
likely continue through the day as NE/E winds are slow to become
southerly. An additional wave of rain is likely this evening,
then guidance seems to be split whether IFR ceilings persist or
the southerly winds are able to bump them into the MVFR category
(or even VFR at CHO).
Thereafter, details become much more uncertain as a front wavers
near the region. Conditions will return to MVFR if not VFR for a
time Wednesday, but additional rain showers will be possible. If
the boundary remains overhead, low ceilings or fog could return
Wednesday night.
VFR conditions are likely much of the time on Thursday and Friday as
a warm front remains north of the Mason-Dixon Line. This does come
with some opportunities for showers which may aid in a few
restrictions at times. The current wind forecast shows mainly south
to southwesterly flow through Friday before turning easterly by
Friday night. However, if the front to the north returns southward
more quickly, more northern TAF sites could see a north to
northeasterly wind earlier.
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
Update as of: 358 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026