AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1009 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal flood statements are now in effect for a few locations
tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Water levels will be close to minor coastal flood benchmarks 
   tonight for the nighttime high tide cycles.

2) Showers are possible mainly west of the Hudson River on 
   Wednesday with a chance of a thunderstorm. Impacts look 
   limited.

3) A storm system brings a threat of severe weather during 
   Thursday into Thursday evening - low confidence. Heat and 
   flooding impacts not anticipated.

4) There is a high risk of rip currents on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1... 
Still have high astronomical tides through midweek but getting 
relatively farther away from the new moon so these levels will 
slightly lower. 

A strengthening southerly flow tonight may provide just enough wind 
forcing to offset the slight decrease in tide levels and produce 
water level near minor coastal flood benchmarks for the more 
vulnerable locations. Coastal flood statements have been issued for 
southern Nassau and southern Fairfield for tonight's high 
tides, where up to 0.2 ft of inundation is expected, with 
isolated areas up to 0.3 ft of inundation. 

A storm system impacting the area on Thursday with a strong 
southerly flow will also need to be watched, but winds should veer 
enough to the west before high tide Thursday night to keep water 
levels below minor coastal flood benchmarks. Parts of southern 
Queens and Bergen Point may just touch minor, but there was not 
enough confidence to issue a statement for these areas. 

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Weak wave of low pressure along an approaching warm front passes by 
to our south Wednesday morning. Guidance consensus keeps us dry 
during this time. CAPE then increases into the afternoon, and with 
residual moisture, showers will be possible with a thunderstorm 
chance. Although shear increases, mechanical forcing is relatively 
weak, so severe weather is not anticipated. That said, some storms 
could be strong where CAPE is able overcome the lack of mechanical 
lift - generally west of the Hudson River. As for the rain, no 
impacts anticipated due to the combination of conditional 
thunderstorm chances, storm motion and only modest moisture in
place.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A broad upper trough encompassing the northern two thirds of 
the country from the Northern Plains to the eastern seaboard 
will send a strong shortwave trough across the Great Lakes and 
into eastern Canada Wednesday night into Thursday. At the 
surface, low pressure deepens below 990 mb, passing well north 
and west of the forecast area on Thursday, sending a warm front 
through the area by late morning and/or early afternoon. The 
best thermal forcing and stratiform rain will mainly pass to the
north. However, the system is very disjointed as the region 
will reside in the warm sector Thursday, but the cold front will
not arrive until later in the evening. In addition, winds will 
veer to the SW with evidence of drying in the low-levels with 
MLCAPE values below a 1000 J/KG and unimpressive mid level lapse
rates. Deep-layer shear (0-6km) is impressive at 50-60 kt, but 
with too much of an imbalance with the CAPE, storms could have a
difficult time developing along and ahead of the cold front. Bottom 
line, ingredients are there, but not aligned. Now there is also some 
question if we can destabilize enough as the warm front works 
through in the morning hours Thursday for any strong convection. 
Instability is mainly elevated during this time. SPC continues to 
keep much of the area within a slight risk of severe thunderstorms 
for Thursday. Main impacts would be due to gusts, but a potential 
for large hail would exist based on shear and CAPE within the hail 
growth region. Flooding impacts would be limited even though 
moisture will be higher this time around. The forward speed of any 
cells should mitigate flooding impacts.

Thursday also will be the warmest day of the week with highs mostly 
in the 80s, with some low 90s for parts of the city and the urban 
corridor of NE NJ. Heat indices should remain below 95 as dewpoints 
drop a little in the afternoon during peak heating. As for winds, it 
could be quite gusty during the day with a potential of 30-40kt 
gusts regardless of any thunderstorms. Low level jet(s) timing and 
strength limit the threat of advisory-level gusts. 

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A high rip current risk appears likely for Thursday for all beaches 
with strong onshore flow and building seas expected, and this could 
linger into Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure departs offshore overnight. A warm front approaches 
the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. 

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Any exception would be the potential for any brief showers during 
Wednesday afternoon into early evening which could result in 
temporary reductions in visibility to MVFR. For this same time 
period, there is low probability for some thunderstorms, too low to 
include in TAFs at this time. Also there is a low probability for 
sub VFR arriving towards the tail end of the 30 hr TAF period for 
KJFK and KLGA, but confidence in occurrence remains too low to 
include in TAF at this time.

Winds overall main S or SW this initially, with city terminals 
primarily around 10 kt for a few more hours. Some of the interior 
terminals will settle in with wind speeds closer to 5 kt or less at 
times overnight as the winds become more variable in direction. 
Otherwise a southerly flow at 5 to 10 kt will prevail overnight for 
most city and coastal terminals. During late Wednesday morning into 
the afternoon a S flow becomes more SE, especially later in the 
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of a thunderstorm for western terminals (KEWR and KTEB) 
Wed afternoon and evening. Confidence remains low at this time.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: Mainly VFR through the evening. Chance of MVFR or 
lower late, especially for southern and eastern terminals.

Thursday: Chances of MVFR/IFR conditions increasing toward afternoon 
and evening with showers/tstms. SW wind gusts near 25-30kt day into 
early eve, then gusts near 20kt. Possible LLWS.

Friday: Mainly VFR. W wind gusts near 20kt afternoon into eve. 

Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 20-25kt day into eve. 

Sunday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20kt day into eve.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Below SCA level conditions are expected through Wednesday night with 
high pressure influence. SCA level conditions become likely on all 
waters Thursday into Thursday night with the next storm system 
approaching and passing through. Maybe even some possible low-end 
gale force wind gusts, but a low level inversion may prevent 
widespread gales. Will at least include a mention of the threat over 
all waters in the HWO for the time being. Not enough confidence for 
a Gale Watch at this time. SCA conditions otherwise should last into 
Thu night. SCA conditions are then possible once again on Saturday 
with a gusty WNW flow. 

Rip currents: there remains a moderate risk of rip currents through 
this evening with a lingering 2-3 ft S swell. As S winds increase 
the risk could become high late in the afternoon for the NYC and 
Nassau beaches. There is moderate risk of rip currents for Wednesday 
(though some beaches may see low risk for part of the day such as at 
Jones Beach, Ocean Beach, and perhaps East Hampton),

See key message 4 for the high risk of rip currents for Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/JP