AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
841 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system moves through the area tonight. High 
pressure then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday, moving 
offshore Tuesday night. A cold front approaches Wednesday into 
Wednesday night and moves across the area Thursday. High 
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Friday into next 
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
For this update have kept a slight chance PoPs around for a few
hours later into the evening, mainly for S and SE portions of 
the area. Therefore a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm 
through mid evening. Otherwise, heights begin to rise late 
tonight/toward 12Z Monday as ridging builds into the region. 
Heat begins to build late tonight as warmer air begins to move 
in behind the frontal system. And overnight lows will be several
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
* Heat and humidity builds on Monday and continues into at least
  Tuesday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire
  area, Monday and Tuesday, and was extended through Wednesday.

Weak upper ridging aloft builds through Monday and then remains
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the area remaining on the
eastern edge of the upper ridge. Monday 850mb temperatures rise
to near 19C and remain into Monday night. Tuesday 850mb
temperatures rise a couple more degrees, to around 21C. Surface
highs Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. At this time no
records are expected. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 90s, potentially hitting 100 across
portions of Northeastern New Jersey. A couple of record high
temperatures are possible. See the CLIMATE section for details.
The combination of high dew points Monday, around 70, and mixing
out to the upper 60s during the afternoon across northeastern
New Jersey, will produce heat indices of 95 to around 104. The
higher temperatures Tuesday with similar dew points will
result in heat indices of 97 to 104. A few locations may reach
105, however, with the limited areal coverage a Heat Warning is
not expected to be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points: 

*Once more day of heat and humidity is expected on Wednesday with 
max heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. The heat advisory has 
been extended through early Wednesday evening. 

*An approaching cold front brings chances for showers and 
thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday. The front likely sags 
south on Thursday, but a frontal wave may bring a continued 
chance of showers into the evening. 

*High pressure builds towards the area Friday and settles over the 
region next weekend bringing cooler temperatures and low humidity 
levels. 

Latest trends indicate ridging aloft holding on through 
Wednesday afternoon. This has lead to a trend up with 
temperatures and resulting heat indices. Given fairly high 
confidence heat indices will at least reach or exceed 95 across 
much of the area, have extended the heat advisory. Heat indices 
may peak in the low 100s in the normally warm spots, but do not 
think they will get as high as extreme heat warning criteria. 

A cold front approaches late Wednesday and will move across the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms 
are possible with the front. There is still low confidence with 
severe potential, but a few strong storms with heavy downpours 
cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening. A frontal wave may form 
on the front Thursday as it shifts through the area, which would
continue the potential of showers and a few thunderstorms 
through Thursday evening. There are still mixed signals 
regarding the exact track of the wave, but there has been a 
trend towards being located close enough to the coast to support
showers through Thursday evening, potentially even a portion of
Thursday night. 

An anomalously strong upper trough follows for Friday pushing 
the front well offshore and allowing sprawling high pressure to 
build over the region through next weekend. Temperatures will be
much cooler, generally in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and 
Saturday with a slight uptick next Sunday, but still seasonable.
Humidity levels will be held down with a dry air mass 
accompanying the high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary passes through the area overnight. 

Mainly VFR, expect IFR to start at KISP and KGON, which will 
see improvement later tonight as some drier air filters into the
low levels behind the front. 

Light S/SW winds will veer around to N/NW overnight. Northerly 
flow at less than 10 kt Monday will be overtaken by seabreezes 
at the coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Spotty shower possible through about 02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 

Monday - Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the day and at night. 

Wed Night thru Thursday: Showers with MVFR possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component 
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels tonight through 
Wednesday. A cold front moves across the waters Wednesday night 
through Thursday. An increasing pressure gradient behind the 
front will bring the next chance of SCA conditions into Friday, 
mainly on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the day Wednesday.

Locally heavy downpours are possible Wednesday evening into 
Thursday, but potential impacts are uncertain at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches 
Monday and Tuesday with only 1 to 2 feet offshore wave heights 
and the absence of a wind wave contribution.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The following are record high temperatures for July 28

Newark       101/1949  
Bridgeport    95/1949 
Central Park *97/1999
LaGuardia     98/1949
Kennedy       98/1949
Islip         96/1999

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS


The following are record high temperatures for July 29

Newark       100/1949
Bridgeport    96/2002
Central Park  99/1949
LaGuardia     97/1949
Kennedy       99/2002
Islip         96/2002


The following are record high minimum temperatures for Monday, July 
28th through Wednesday, July 30th. Currently the forecast reflects 
that records will be approached at some of our climate sites with 
respect to the minimum temperatures.

Record Minimum Temperatures for Monday, July 28th    
----------------------------------------------------     
Central Park........80 (2020)
LaGuardia...........83 (2020)
Kennedy.............79 (2020) 
Islip...............77 (2020)
Newark..............80 (2020)
Bridgeport..........77 (2020)

Record Minimum Temperatures for Tuesday, July 29th    
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........79 (2002)
LaGuardia...........82 (2002)
Kennedy.............76 (2022,2002,1995,1949) 
Islip...............77 (1995)
Newark..............79 (2002)
Bridgeport..........78 (1995)

Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, July 30th    
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........80 (2002)
LaGuardia...........81 (2019,2002)
Kennedy.............79 (2006,1995)
Islip...............76 (2002)
Newark..............81 (2002)
Bridgeport..........76 (2002)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for 
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for 
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for 
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...