Area Forecast Discussion

Heat the Southwest; Fire Weather in the Central U.S.; Kona Low Impacting Hawaii

A rare March heat wave is ongoing with much above-normal temperatures over the Southwest U.S. through this weekend. Periods of critical fire weather will persist from the central Rockies to the central and southern Plains through the weekend as gusty winds and low relative humidity continue. A Kona low will continue to bring several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall to Hawaii through Sunday. Read More >

AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 746 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures warming into the weekend. 2) No major storm systems expected in the forecast with just a couple of disturbances Friday night into Saturday morning, and again from Sunday afternoon into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure weakens today as a quick moving frontal system approaches the area from the northwest tonight. Ahead of it, an increasing S flow will advect warmer air into the area beginning today. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast and into the upper 50s to low 60s for western areas. This trend of warmer temperatures should largely persist on Saturday though it may be a few degrees cooler than today behind the frontal system. Temperatures warm once again into Sunday with highs similar to today. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A couple of relatively weak disturbances will move through the area over the next 3-4 days. The first quick moving frontal system will bring a period of rainfall late this afternoon through tonight. Rain ends by Saturday morning with much of the weekend remaining dry. Another system approaches the area from the northwest late Sunday, bringing the potential for rainfall once again, mainly late Sunday into Monday, though there remains a bit of uncertainty as to our placement with respect to the passing low. This will determine how long of a chance of rain showers we will see. Either way, not anticipating the event to be particularly impactful. In between the two systems, high pressure will be largely in control for the weekend with temperatures averaging 5 to 10 degrees above normal. However, following a cold frontal passage late Sunday night into Monday morning, temperatures will cool down to more seasonal levels. Another more robust system may impact the area late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region through much of the day Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Friday afternoon and will cross the region by around daybreak Saturday. Mainly VFR through Friday afternoon. Cigs start to lower with rain chances increasing after 20Z Friday. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions after 00Z Saturday in rain. Winds will become light and variable overnight. Friday morning winds increase to around 10 kt out of the south, then increase into the afternoon with speeds 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Winds diminish overnight, with gusts ending after 03Z Saturday. Wind shear at 2 kft with SW winds at 45 to 50 kt, mainly for eastern terminals (KBDR, KISP, and KGON) with a low level jet developing overhead. There is a low chance this impacts terminals farther west, such as KJFK, KLGA, and KHPN. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional winds speeds/gusts may be higher than forecast late Friday afternoon. Timing of rain and lower flight categories may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday: VFR with NW winds at 10 kt or less. Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with rain in the late afternoon/evening, possibly mixing with snow at night for the Lower Hudson Valley and CT. SW winds 10 kt or less. Monday: VFR. N winds G20 kt. Tuesday: VFR. N winds 10 kt or less. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure will maintain light S/SW winds through Friday morning. Small Craft Advisories for all waters this afternoon and evening as S winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front with gusts 25-30kt, before winds become SW and diminish tonight. Seas on ocean will take longer to subside, probably not falling below 5 ft until early Saturday afternoon. Another round of Small Craft Advisory winds and seas appears likely late Sunday night through Monday night. Much of this will be in the NW flow following a cold frontal passage Monday morning. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332-335. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...MW AVIATION...JP MARINE...MW