Area Forecast Discussion

Hurricane Isaias Approaching the Gulf Coast; Remnants of Rachel to Impact the Southwest U.S.

Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coast with damaging wind gusts extending well inland. Areas of heavy rainfall are forecast throughout much of the Southeast U.S. The remnants of Rachel will bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the Southwest U.S. this weekend. Read More >

AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 248 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the forecast with the latest update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and seasonable through Saturday. 2) An area of low pressure will bring rain to the area Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Another shortwave aloft and associated weak surface trough will move through the area late this morning/early afternoon. Thereafter, high pressure builds in and remains in control through Saturday. This pattern will bring dry and seasonable conditions. Went higher than NBM with gusts and lower than NBM with Tds given deep mixing expected today. Additionally, blended in CONSMOS for temperatures tonight as high pressure settles over the area. The combination of the dry airmass, light winds and mostly clear skies will allow the usual cool spots to radiate down to the upper 30s/lower 40s. There is potential for some high clouds to work against this, but will ultimately depend on coverage and thickness. Should high cloud cover be more significant than forecast, tonight's low temperatures could end up a few degrees warmer. No frost/freeze is expected. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Hurricane Isaias is forecast to make landfall tonight along the eastern Gulf Coast. Refer to the latest official track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for additional details. Remnant moisture from this system then looks to interact with mid-latitude energy, bringing a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall across the area Sunday into Monday. There continues to be little change with the forecast/potential impacts with this system for our area and at this time no significant impacts are expected. The system will be progressive and the current forecast is a widespread inch of rain over an 18-24 hour period starting Sunday late morning/early afternoon. Given pwats approaching 2 inches and some elevated instability (dependent on track), a widespread 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts can not be ruled out. At this time this would be a reasonable worst case rainfall. WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island. Most likely impacts would be minor urban and poor drainage flooding. S/SE winds Sunday night may briefly reach 25 to 35 mph along the coast. There is a new moon on Saturday and coastal locations will need about 1 to 2 ft to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks, which is not expected at this time. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pres builds S of the area today, then into the area on Sat. VFR thru the TAF period. WNW/VRB winds 5 kt or less into the AM push. Winds increase to 10 to 15 kt by mid to late morning, with gusts 20 to 25 kt likely in the afternoon. Winds will generally be left of 300 true thru early afternoon, potentially wavering or veering right of 300 true between 19z and 23z. WNW winds and gusts subside quickly btwn 23 and 01z, becoming LV overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of gusts starting-ending may be off by an hour today. Peak gusts to 25 kt likely. Winds will generally be left of 300 true into early afternoon, potentially wavering or veering right of 300 true between 19z and 23z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Tonight: VFR with LV winds. Saturday: VFR. N winds, becoming S/SE late. Sunday: VFR through the early afternoon. Chance of rain with MVFR/IFR cond developing late, and at night. Increasing E/SE winds 10-15g20kt in aft/eve. Monday: MVFR or lower in rain showers early, VFR likely in afternoon. Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gusty winds expected again today, but largely remain below 25 kt. There will likely be a few hours this afternoon of occasional 25 kt gusts, mainly for the LI Sound east of the CT River, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the ocean east of Moriches Inlet. The next chance for SCA criteria will be as an area of low pressure passes through Sunday into Monday. Ocean seas during this period could briefly reach as high as 9 to 11 ft. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JT AVIATION... MARINE...JT