AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1016 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains nearby overnight. A cold front 
approaches on Thursday and swings through Thursday night. The 
front then stalls nearby or just to the south during Friday into
Saturday and will slowly work south into the Mid Atlantic into 
early next week. Waves of low pressure will track along the 
boundary during this time. The front will then return northward 
as a warm front toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains nearby overnight, to the south and 
southwest. This should provide primarily clear skies. With a 
weak pressure gradient expect light winds mainly out of the SW. 
Temperatures should be close to normal, perhaps a couple of 
degrees above normal. With the lack of an onshore wind component
overall, there should be enough of a temperature and dew point 
separation to preclude fog development, although locally a 
little patchy fog cannot be completely ruled with night time 
minimums mainly in the 60s.

Weak high pressure then drifts further east to our south on 
Thursday, with a cold front approaching from the west-northwest 
in the afternoon. It will be a moderately humid day with 
dewpoints primarily in the lower 60s with the region just south 
of the polar jet. BUFKIT forecast soundings are suggestive of at
least a conditional convective chance, especially for the 
western half of the area later in the day and early evening. 
Moderate CAPE profiles are evident with over 1000 J/kg of CAPE 
for many sites, with lower CAPE further east. Would have to get 
parcel to 5 kft to enable lifting above the LFC. Exact timing 
and placement of the approach of the cold frontal boundary will 
dictate where and exactly when convection will try to initiate. 
The conditionality with respect to convective chances comes from
signs of warmer air in the mid levels and some potential 
capping. If the capping is weaker or non-existant than a few 
strong to severe storms would be possible with the jet just to 
the north and 40 kt bulk shear in place. Thus, if convective 
initiation is achieved, then the potential for storm 
organization and maintenance would be high. For now will hold 
off on any enhanced wording due to the high conditionality of 
any convection and carry slight chance and isolated wording for 
the late afternoon and evening. Look for a noticeably warmer day
overall with daytime maximums primarily in the 80s region wide,
with some spots in urban NE NJ getting to 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Thursday night the cold front is progged to push through as
the shortwave feature gets further east and in its wake later 
at night surface high pressure attempts to ridge down from the 
northwest out of Canada. Carry slight chance PoPs early on with 
showers and isolated thunder chances, with skies later on going 
partly cloudy to mostly clear on a light NW to N flow. With the 
light wind behind the boundary if any convection did occur some 
localized patchy fog would be possible late where any rain or 
convection occurred, but due to the high conditionality of any 
previous shower or convective activity have chosen to keep any 
patchy fog wording out of the forecast for the time being. 
Dewpoint readings should drop some by early Friday morning into 
the middle and upper 50s, thus some drop in humidity levels is 
expected.

A sunny start is expected during Friday with weak sfc ridging 
working in during the morning. However, the cold front which 
moved through Thursday night is not progged to get very far to 
the south and is expected to stall nearby, perhaps just to the 
immediate south. This scenario would likely set up an light 
onshore flow, especially during the afternoon along and north of
the boundary. Any light onshore flow would keep temperatures 
somewhat cooler from the previous day. There is a chance that 
the flow will be quite weak and won't really penetrate much 
inland. Thus temperatures should be able to reach the 80s, 
perhaps middle 80s inland during the day Friday. Coastal 
sections are likely to be in the upper half of the 70s to around
80, thus closer to normal. A mid-level shortwave is forecast to
approach later in the day and evening. This could trigger some 
shower activity late in the day and evening. Thus have re- 
introduced slight chance PoPs across far western sections late 
in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast area during this time will reside on the southern 
edge of the westerlies which is likely to keep the area 
unsettled into early next week. A frontal boundary just south of
the area on Saturday will settle slowly south into the Mid 
Atlantic states into early next week before returning northward 
mid week. The challenging part of the forecast is 
timing/location of frontal waves along the boundary and the 
associated rainfall. Airmass is marginally unstable over the 
weekend along with PWAT values approaching 2 inches. Thus, there
could be some downpours, but by no means will it be raining all
the time. Forecast running with chance PoPs (30-50%) over the 
weekend into early next week with a chance of showers and 
embedded thunderstorms. Shortwave energy passing to the north on
Sunday will be followed by high pressure building across 
eastern Canada and into the Northeast. This looks to push the 
front farther south into Monday with even some drying of the 
airmass. Airmass should be stable enough to limit convection to 
mainly showers at this time. 12Z global models are in good 
agreement taking low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast early 
Tuesday, passing to the south and east. Forecast area will be on
the northern periphery of the system and may be far enough 
removed from the stratiform rain shield. Rain chances will be 
lower during this time.

Temperatures Saturday through Monday will trend down through 
the 70s and in some cases may struggle to get above 70 with an 
easterly flow and cloud cover. Temperatures will then begin to 
climb back up to normal by Tuesday and even above by Wednesday 
as heights begin to rise and the front starts returning 
northward as a warm front. Lows will be close to normal, but 
night will be humid with dew points around 60. NBM box and 
whisker temperatures plot shows large difference between the 
25th and 75th percentiles from Saturday into Tuesday, likely due
timing of the frontal waves and rain.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds over the terminals through the 
overnight. A weak cold front slowly approaches from the 
northwest on Thursday, moving into the Lower Hudson Valley late 
in the afternoon and through the remaining terminals during the 
evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible late
Thursday afternoon into the early evening, however, with the
sparse coverage and uncertainty of occurrence, have not included
in the forecast.

VFR through the TAF period.

A SW/WSW flow continues through the overnight, with a few
locations becoming light and variable. A W flow develops 
Thursday morning and increases into the early afternoon, 
becoming 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt possible. The flow may 
start backing to the SW near the coast early afternoon, with a 
sea breeze possible at KJFK by late afternoon.


 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible Thursday afternoon and early 
evening. 

Timing of afternoon sea breeze Thursday at KJFK may be off by 
1-3 hours, and possible that the sea breeze does not move into
KJFK.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 

Thursday Night: VFR. MVFR possible in isolated showers and 
thunderstorms before 06Z.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of  
showers and a few thunderstorms possible.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms possible.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions are anticipated in the near and short term 
for all waters. Across far eastern portions of the ocean there will 
be 4 ft and just under 5 ft seas at times for a portion of tonight. 
Otherwise seas gradually decline to 2 to 3 ft by Thursday afternoon, 
and closer to 2 ft into Friday.

With a weak pressure gradient force expected across the forecast 
waters, as a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the ocean 
waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from 
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the short term, other than 
the low chance of some nuisance urbanized minor flooding in 
association with an isolated thunderstorm late Thursday. Showers and 
embedded thunderstorms may produce localized heavy rainfall on 
Saturday. WPC has portions of the area under a marginal risk of 
excessive flooding. This represents a low probability of flash 
flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A gradually diminishing southerly swell will result in another 
day of a moderate rip current risk Thursday, but lowering to a 
low risk on Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for 
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...