AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1049 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mainly dry conditions throughout the forecast period.

2. Temperatures warm through Saturday with a more substantial 
warmup next week.

3. Potential fire weather concerns Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
There will be a quasi-zonal mid to upper level flow rest of 
this week into the middle part of next week. Not much moisture 
will get worked into any systems with this kind of pattern. A 
cold front passing through Friday night will have low chance 
of showers with its passage. Numerical weather prediction 
models show very little QPF with the front. Other periodic weak 
systems pass through next week with also minimal QPF. No 
hydrologic issues are expected through the next week.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures warming up today into Friday and more substantially
for next week. High pressure to close out this week is more based
in the Northern Atlantic while the one next week will be more 
southward based across the Western Atlantic. Max temperatures 
forecast transition from upper 40s to mid 50s today to mid 50s 
to mid 60s Friday and for the weekend slightly lower before 
rising well into the 60s to 70s Monday and eventually 70s to 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Post cold front Saturday with the lack of wetting rainfall will
set up lower RH. With gusty winds from the NW, forecast could
trend both higher with wind gusts and lower with RH in subsequent
forecasts. This would allow for an elevated threat of wildfire
spread if ignition were to occur. Hence, there are more 
concerns regarding fire weather Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains off the Northeast coast through tonight. 
A weak cold front slowly approaches the region Friday into 
Friday night.

VFR today. Increasing potential for MVFR/IFR cigs developing 
after 00-04z this evening for all but KSWF with low stratus. 
Patchy fog possible.

S flow increasing toward 10-12 kt during the early to mid 
afternoon. Gusts to 18 kt possible away from south coastal 
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Occasional gusts to 18 kt possible for aft/early eve push.

Potential for MVFR-IFR cigs developing after 00-04z. MVFR-IFR 
cigs likely for Fri AM push. Patchy fog possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 

Late Tonight: MVFR-IFR stratus likely for NYC/NJ metro and 
coastal terminals, possible for KSWF. Patchy fog possible.

Friday: MVFR to IFR stratus likely for morning push, becoming 
VFR by mid-morning. 

Friday Night: Potential for MVFR or lower in rain showers. 
Highest chances north and west of NYC terminals.

Saturday: VFR. NW gust 20 to 25 kt possible. 

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR. SW gusts to 30 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure provides weak pressure gradient today through
Friday morning, keeping conditions below SCA thresholds. SCA 
thresholds could develop Friday afternoon into Friday night as
pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. The SCA
conditions could linger into Saturday behind the cold front,
especially for the ocean. High pressure eventually returns, 
lowering conditions back below SCA for Saturday night through 
rest of the weekend. Another chance for SCA conditions early 
next week with high pressure offshore.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM