AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
253 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front swings through during the first half of Wednesday. A 
large dome of high pressure builds Wednesday night into Thursday. 
Canadian high pressure settles over the area for the end of the 
week, and slides offshore over the weekend. Low pressure develops 
south of the region late in the weekend into early next week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SW flow of unseasonably mild and humid continues through tonight 
in advance of an approaching cold front. Most places will have 
dewpoint readings in the lower, and perhaps a few middle 60s which 
is quite anomalous for this time of year. With advancing cloud cover 
along the frontal boundary temperatures will be quite warm for this 
time of year as the cold front is not expected to get into far NW 
portions of the region until around or just before sunrise. As far 
as PoPs, much of the region will be dry through the entire evening, 
with only far W / NW sections having more than a negligible chance 
of showers before midnight. Immediately after midnight PoPs rise 
sharply from west to east, with widespread likely and categorical 
PoPs for much of the region by 06z. This is when the steadier rain 
moves into a good portion of the area. There remains some model 
disagreement as to how soon the steadier rain presses further east 
in the eastern most portions of the area. Chose to take an NBM blend 
for the most part in terms of precip / PoP timing across the region.
BUFKIT soundings (most higher res members) suggestive of some 
instability (100-400 j/kg) with Showalter indices getting to around 
0, thus introduce isolate thunder wording towards sunrise / early 
Wednesday morning. Thus, a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but 
should be the exception rather than the norm.

The cold front pivots through the city into the morning commute. 
Immediately behind the front shower activity lightens with a quick 
wind shift to the N and NNW. The front is expected to move through 
the city in the 13-14z timeframe, and off the eastern end of LI and 
So. CT towards 16-17z. With any steadier or heavier rain shutting 
off at those times. A few lingering showers may persist for an 
additional couple of hours but will be lighter in intensity and more 
scattered in nature. Gusty N to NW winds should dry things out 
quickly into the afternoon, and the late afternoon well east. The 
unseasonably humid and warm weather abruptly comes to an end with 
temperatures a good 10 degrees cooler into the afternoon. It turns 
more crisp and fall like for the afternoon and into the evening. 
Skies clear quickly from west to east during the afternoon.
Rainfall totals look to be on the order of 0.50 to 1.0 inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear skies with more of an autumn feel during the period. A much 
drier and cooler Canadian air mass will dominate with a stiff breeze 
out of the N continuing into the day on Thursday. With the wind 
staying up Wednesday night temperatures fall back primarily into the 
40s. On Thursday sunny skies with high pressure continuing to build. 
As the high gets closer later in the afternoon the winds should 
start to diminish some, with a more noticeable relaxing of the winds 
towards early evening. Temperatures will actually be below normal 
with highs struggling to get out of the upper 50s in some spots, 
otherwise high temperatures will be in the lower 60s. Dew point 
readings will be all the way down into the 30s, so a much drier fall 
air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold to start Thu ngt with a mid 1030s high building over the 
region. A freeze is possible for the normally coldest locations. The 
NBM was followed, but those numbers will be too high if the timing 
of the high verifies. 

Fair wx Fri thru the day on Sat with this high transitioning across 
the area. Highs on Fri a solid 5 degrees or more blw climo. Temps 
and dewpoints increase on Sat with an ely flow off the Atlc 
developing. An increase in high clouds are likely as well from low 
pres to the S.

Low pres spins up along the stalled front off the SE CONUS over the 
weekend. This low gradually strengthens by Sun, with chances for 
rain spreading up the E coast. The modeling suggests the low may 
slowly track up the coast Mon into Tue, resulting in additional 
chances for rain and increasing winds, especially at the coast. If 
the low does get close enough to produce steady rains, would expect 
high temps to end up lower than currently fcst. The NBM has been 
followed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue to gradually give way to an approaching 
cold front through this evening. The front will then pass through 
the area Wednesday morning. 

Mainly VFR through the first half of tonight. Showers and MVFR/IFR 
mainly after midnight, lingering into Wednesday morning, possibly 
early afternoon for the eastern terminals. An isolated thunderstorms 
is possible, but confidence is too low at this time to mention.

SW-S winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt into early this evening. 
Gusts likely end at the inland terminals early, but should continue 
or at least remain occasional at the coastal terminals. Winds become 
NW in the morning. NW gusts behind cold front may be delayed by 2 to 
3 hours from the current forecast. 

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Wind gusts may vary by 20 degrees this afternoon on either side of 
180.

Timing of ceiling category changes and wind shifts overnight into 
Wednesday morning may vary by 1-2 hours. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon: VFR. NW-N gusts around 20 kt.

Thursday: VFR. N gusts 15-20 kt, mainly in the morning.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. NE gusts 20-30kt. 

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will prevail on the ocean waters and the 
south shore bays through tonight, and for much of Wednesday, 
Wednesday night, and at least the first half of Thursday. More 
marginal small craft conditions are likely for the eastern half of 
LI Sound and the eastern bays of LI. A small craft advisory may 
eventually be needed for these non-ocean zones at some point, but as 
of now small craft advisory gusts appear to be more occasional. Late 
Thursday afternoon conditions may fall below sca criteria, but 
timing remains uncertain. Winds and seas blw sca lvls Thu ngt thru 
the day on Sat due to high pres. Winds increase Sat ngt, with gales 
possible on Sun as low pres strengthens to the S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Despite rainfall late tonight into the first half of Wednesday, 
there are no hydrologic concerns at this time throughout the 
forecast period as dry antecedent conditions have prevailed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light winds on Fri look to limit the cstl flood threat. Still, some 
pockets of minor are possible due to the residual supermoon spring 
tides.  

There is a high degree of uncertainty as to how much low pressure to 
the south early next week will impact the local area. Given 
potential for fairly strong NE flow between the low and high 
pressure to our north, there could be multiple rounds of widespread 
flooding Sunday and Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ345-353-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT 
     Thursday for ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...