Area Forecast Discussion

Bering Sea Storms for Alaska; Multi-Day Heavy Rain Event for the Southern Plains and Southwest

A series of Bering Sea storms will impact western Alaska this week, with elevated water levels, isolated coastal flooding, high surf, erosion, and strong winds. Heavy rain and snow are also expected for the West Coast into Interior Alaska. A multi-day flash flooding threat is forecast across parts of the southern High Plains and Southwest through the weekend. Surf remains high for Florida. Read More >

AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 731 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SCA issued for the ocean waters out to 20nm for Friday afternoon/night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A dry cold frontal passage on Friday will be followed by another strong area of high pressure for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave trough riding over top of the upper ridge will send a cold front toward the area today, with the frontal passage Friday morning. Another area of strong high pressure builds into the area for the weekend with more autum-like airmass. System is moisture starved and any shower activity with the front is forecast to remain north of the area. Gusty NW winds will follow behind the cold front Friday with the potential for gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. NBM and NBM90 looked too deficient in the cold advection based on 00Z model soundings. This is a noted bias. Used a blend of the raw GFS, NAM12 and NBM/NBM90. Temperatures today into Friday will be about 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the 60s to around 70, and lows mainly in the 50s. However, it cools back down to more seasonable levels for the weekend with highs in the 50s to around 60, and lows in the 30s and 40s. Frost is possible Saturday night for some coastal locations where the growing season has yet to end. Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through early next week. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by mid next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure remains nearby throughout the TAF period. VFR conditions continue. Winds will primarily be light and variable through the morning push. Winds become more SW mid morning, with wind speeds around 7 to 10 kt during the afternoon and early evening. Winds remain from the SW but lighten a bit Thursday night. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt possible Fri afternoon. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Monday: Manly VFR. Low chance of a shower with pockets of sub VFR possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... SCA has been issued for the ocean waters out to 20nm for Friday afternoon/night. A cold frontal passage Friday morning will be followed by a gusty NW flow developing during the afternoon hours with gusts up to 30 kt into the first half of Friday night. The SCA may need to be extended to the non-ocean waters. For the time, there is a mention of occasional 25 kt gusts. High pressure builds in for the weekend with sub-SCA conditions expected into at least early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...BC MARINE...DW