AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
237 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There still is a threat of severe weather on Thursday, but
ingredients are very disjointed at this time. Confidence is
low. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another dry seasonable day across the region. 

2) Water levels will be close to minor coastal flood benchmarks
again tonight into Wednesday for the nighttime high tide cycles.

3) A weak warm front approaching on Wednesday may produce a 
round of showers and an isolated thunderstorm.

4) A strong low pressure system will bring a frontal system
through the area Thursday/Thursday night with a severe weather 
threat and gusty south winds. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1... 
Weak high pressure builds into the area this morning and then
offshore in the afternoon. Temperatures will once again be 
near normal for most locations. 

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Still have high astronomical tides through midweek but getting
relatively farther away from the new moon so these levels will
slightly lower. 

A strengthening southerly flow this afternoon into tonight may
provide just enough wind forcing to offset the slight decrease
in tide levels and produce water level near minor coastal flood
benchmarks for the more vulnerable locations. Another coastal 
flood statement is possible for parts of NY Harbor, Western 
Long Island Sound and South Shore Bays shorelines.

A storm system impacting the area on Thursday with a strong
southerly flow will also need to be watched, but winds should 
veer enough to the west before high tide Thursday night to keep
water levels below minor coastal flood benchmarks. 

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
On Wednesday, warm air advection aloft will help with development
of showers associated with warm front moving in. A thunderstorm
will be possible. Instability will be quite limited with the 
southeast flow. The best chances for rain will north and west of
NYC. 

Temperatures will be near normal if not a bit cooler Wednesday 
with a more S to SE flow and more maritime influence along the 
coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A broad upper trough encompassing the northern two thirds of 
the country from the Northern Plains to the eastern seaboard 
will send a strong shortwave trough across the Great Lakes and 
into eastern Canada Wednesday night into Thursday. At the 
surface, low pressure deepens below 990 mb, passing well north 
and west of the forecast area on Thursday, sending a warm front 
through the area by late morning and/or early afternoon. The 
best thermal forcing and stratiform rain will mainly pass to the
north. However, the system is very disjointed as the region 
will reside in the warm sector Thursday, but the cold front will
not arrive until later in the evening. In addition, winds will 
veer to the SW with evidence of drying in the low-levels with 
MLCAPE values below a 1000 J/KG and unimpressive mid level lapse
rates. Deep-layer shear (0-6km) is impressive at 50-60 kt, but 
with too much of an imbalance with the CAPE, storms could have a
difficult time developing along and ahead of the cold front. 
Bottom line, ingredients are there, but not aligned.

It also should be the hottest day of the week with highs into
the 80s, possibly 90, from NYC and points north and west, to the
upper 70s and lower 80s at the coast. In addition, 00Z GFS
vertical wind profile is quite impressive with gust potential 
in the 30 to 40kt range. It looks to be below wind advisory 
levels at this time. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area today.

VFR through the TAF period.

NW/VRB winds back to the SW thru the day as return flow
develops. Sea breeze enhanced/backed flow JFK and possibly LGA.
Winds lighten aft 00Z Wed, becoming VRB aft 4Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tonight: VFR with diminishing winds. 

Wednesday: Chance of sub-VFR with possible showers and tstms in
the afternoon. 

Thursday: Chances of MVFR/IFR conditions increasing toward 
afternoon and evening with showers/tstms. SW winds G30kt.

Friday: Sub VFR possible early, otherwise VFR. W winds G20kt. 

Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt. 

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Below SCA level conditions are expected through midweek with
high pressure influence. SCA level conditions become more 
likely Thursday into Thursday night with the strong cold front 
approach and crossing through. Maybe even some possible low end 
gale force wind gusts are possible Thursday into Thursday night.

SCA conditions should last into Thu night on the ocean and the
ern Sound and bays of Long Island into Thu evening, with ocean
seas 6-8 ft and SW winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Thereafter, 5-7 
ft seas should linger on the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet
for the rest of Thu night, with 5-ft seas E of Fire Island Inlet
still possible daytime Fri. 

Rip currents: The rip current risk today  will be at least 
moderate with a lingering 2-3 ft S swell. As S winds increase 
the risk could become high late in the afternoon for the NYC and
Nassau beaches. 

A mostly moderate risk expected for Wed, then a high rip 
current risk appears likely for Thu with strong onshore flow and
building seas expected, and this could linger into Fri.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...DW