AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
315 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick-moving low passes to the south and off the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the 
region Thursday, before exiting offshore ahead of a frontal 
system that impacts the area Friday into Saturday. High pressure
then briefly returns the second half of the weekend and remain 
into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Weak high pressure builds over the region today before a fast 
moving low passes south of the area late tonight. Lighter flow 
than recent days with a more relaxed pressure field as the high 
builds overhead and deep low pressure over Atlantic Canada 
continues to exit. 

Weak high pressure associated with deep dry air is located over
New England into southern CT. Cold air aloft helping to deepen
the mixed layer is allowing for some surface WNW gusts to around
25 mph but these gusts will be easing by sundown. To the west 
is a weak-amplitude shortwave trough and sfc low pressure over 
the lower OH Valley. This progressive wave will pass through
eastern PA overnight and into the waters south of Long Island
into Wed. Modest burst of warm advection associated with the
sfc low will allow for a shield of precip to break out after
midnight tonigh from west to east. Even factoring in potential
wet-bulb cooling, precip is expected to fall as plain rain for 
NW NJ and NYC/LI overnight into the early Wed morning hours. 
Rain amts are not significant with totals around a tenth of an 
inch or less in most areas, limited by the fast- moving nature 
of this low. Further northwest into the Western Highlands and 
into southern CT, drier air will be tough to fully scour out and
could create a pretty sharp south-to-north gradient in the 
precip shield. Were anything to fall in these locations, and 
it's debatable given the drier air below cloud base, precip may 
mix with wet snowflakes but impact would be nil from these. Lows
upper 20s to freezing for southern CT/Lower Hudson to the mid 
30s to low 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure exits to our southeast and offshore during the Wed
morning hours. High pressure then reasserts from the northwest.

Areas of rain to taper off from NW to SE through Wed morning,
with overcast skies improving to partly to mostly sunny
conditions for Wed and again into Thurs. Temperatures should 
still be pretty seasonable by mid November standards in the 40s.

Light winds and lingering moisture in the low levels should 
allow for widespread areas of frost to develop overnight into 
Thu AM, but mainly for colder inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall no substantial change for late in the workweek into
early next week. Frontal system for Fri could be a little
moisture starved which could limit QPF amts. Remainder of the
forecast and key messaging below remains valid.

Key Points:

* A frontal system will impact the region Friday into Saturday as 
  low pressure passes north of the region. A warm front remains near 
  the region on Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday. 

* High pressure returns for the second half of the weekend and first 
  part of next week with dry conditions. 

* High temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for
  this time of year. Generally in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
21z Update: Observations show WNW gusts have become more 
intermittent and with decreased gust speeds. Amends were to
indicate gusts easing now closing in on sundown, with sustained
wind speeds coming down thru tonight as well, to go along with
lowering VFR ceilings. Rest of the 18z TAF discussion issued 
earlier is still valid:

VFR through at least 06z Wed, with initial WNW winds 12-15 kt 
with gusts low-20s kt range; gusts decrease by 21-22z Tue with 
winds backing to W and easing to around 5-10 kt. Ceilings 
steadily lower after 06z to MVFR as precip breaks out from W to 
E with light winds. Drier air entrenched over CT could produce a
pretty sharp south-to-north gradient in precip. Thinking best 
chance for light rains with MVFR ceilngs/visbys for the NYC hubs
as well as ISP between 07-14z Wed; further north, light rain 
could mix with wet snowflakes at SWF but given drier air which 
could dry up some of the precip on the northern edge, left as a 
prob30 group for SWF. Gradual improvement to categories into the
VFR range around 13-17z Wed W to E, with winds becoming NE 
around 5 kt. 

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Ceilings could fall into IFR range for a brief period overnight
to early Wed AM if steadier rains develop. Improvement timing 
shown in TAFs Wed could slip an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. S 
winds G15-20kt Friday and Saturday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas have now fallen below small craft advisory
criterion, and should remain so through at least Saturday. SCA 
conditions look to return on the ocean Sunday night into the 
first part of next week as the gradient tightens and seas build 
to 5 ft or greater.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through early
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
MARINE...99
HYDROLOGY...99