AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
937 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west and then passes well to
the south overnight. A cold front passes through the region 
Christmas afternoon. High pressure briefly returns Thursday 
night into Friday. A winter storm likely affects the area late 
Friday into Saturday morning. Another frontal system may affect 
the area Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure returns early 
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Dry, with near seasonable temperatures, becoming breezy
  Thursday afternoon.

High pressure builds in from the west, and over the region this
evening. The high then drifts to the south tonight as a cold
front approaches from the north. Tonight and Christmas Day will
be dry, with high temperatures just a few degrees above seasonal
normals. A cold front passes through the region Christmas
afternoon with some cloudiness and breezy northerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
What's Changed: There have been no changes to existing winter 
weather headlines. Snowfall amounts have been lowered slightly 
across coastal Long Island and NYC, and raised slightly across 
southern/coastal CT. 

Key Messages: 

* Confidence in a winter storm impacting the area Friday evening 
  through Saturday morning continues to increase. Travel will be 
  impacted Friday evening into early Saturday morning.

* Heavy snow is possible Friday night/early Saturday morning.
  Total accumulation ranges from 4 to 8 inches in the watch area and 
  2 to 5 inches east of the watch in SE CT and east end of Long 
  Island. 

Global models and their associated ensemble systems continue to 
highlight a quick moving shortwave rounding a strong upper ridge 
centered over the central plains, approaching the local area from 
the northwest Friday afternoon. At the surface, a cold high 
pressure centered over Quebec heads to the east as a surface low
traverses the OH Valley, through PA and generally south of the 
local forecast area by 12Z Saturday. This will allow for a cold 
and dry arctic airmass to remain in place at the start as the 
shortwave and sfc low pressure approach Friday afternoon.

Model consensus continues to have the local area on the north side 
of the system, though it's notable that the 00Z NAM made a dramatic 
shift to the north with the sfc low. As is typical with the NAM in 
warm nose aloft scenarios, this run is either an anomaly, or the 
beginning of the trend that will need to be watched over the next 
several model cycles, as this track would lower snow totals across 
NE NJ and the LoHud at the expense of sleet/IP. Nonetheless, thermal 
profiles from most 00Z guidance and the NBM continues to be 
suggestive of a period of decent snow growth from late Friday into 
early Saturday across much of the CWA. Best h7 frontogenetic forcing 
appears on a line from SWF-LGA-HVW by 00-03Z Saturday, though this 
feature continues to wiggle with the sfc low track changes from 
guidance to guidance. Areas that fall under any heavy banding will 
pick up the highest snowfall totals with the highest rates, with the 
typical positional uncertainty this far out on exactly where that 
will happen.  

All said, and in conjunction with the latest WPC WSO and neighboring 
WFOs, held the line on existing winter storm watch areas with this 
update.  Should the trend of a more northerly low track solution 
continue, warning level snow could be possible for SE CT and the 
watch would need to be expanded there.

Snowfall Forecast: 4 to 8 inches possible within the watch area and 
2 to 5 inches further east outside of the watch. A reasonable worst 
case scenario of 8 to 10 inches currents exists within the watch 
area with potential locations further east could still see warning 
criteria met. 

Snowfall rates: Peak rates around 1 inch per hour possible. There is 
a low chance rates could come close to 2 inches per hour in heavier 
banding. The snow may initially begin with a higher ratio (drier 
snow) and then trend to a lower ratio (wetter) as the storm moves 
across the area. This will be fine tuned over the next day or so as 
high range guidance comes into range and the event draws closer. 

As noted above with the trend in the 00Z NAM, there is still some 
concern with the warm advection aloft Friday night bringing in a mix 
with sleet late in the event. The latest (01Z) NBM probability of 
sleet is very low and trends seem to be leaning towards keeping the 
precipitation all snow across the area. Models can sometimes 
underestimate the warm advection aloft. This is something that will 
need to be watched, especially for parts of northeast NJ and 
interior Lower Hudson Valley as this is the direction the warm air 
aloft tries to move in from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

*The next system for Sunday afternoon into early Monday looks to be 
mainly rain with only a chance of a wintry mix across the interior. 
Highest probabilities for precip occur late Sunday and persist 
through Sunday night into early Monday. 

*Dry weather returns on Monday behind the frontal system into
 midweek with below normal temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure slides offshore to the south this morning. A cold
front passes through in the afternoon.

VFR through the period.

Light SW flow increases into mid morning and gusts 20-25 kt 
develop by 15-17Z. Winds veer W, then NW, with cold fropa 
around 18Z. Speeds pick up behind it, and gusts 25-30 kt are 
then likely through late day. Speeds gradually lower into the 
overnight, and frequent gusts largely abate after 6Z for most 
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours in TAFs. 

Occasional NW gusts up to 35 kt possible for aft/eve push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR in the morning, becoming IFR in snow from KBDR and 
KISP and west into early evening. LIFR, possibly VLIFR in snow 
Friday night across the region. Low potential (<30%) for IP/RA 
to mix in Fri Night for NYC/NJ metro and LI terminals.

Saturday: IFR with AM snow, low potential (<30%) for IP/RA to mix in 
Sat AM for NYC/NJ metro and LI terminals. IFR conditions may linger 
through the afternoon with a mix of light snow/DZ/FZDZ. Improving 
conditions late Sat into Sat eve.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR with rain developing in the afternoon,
continuing overnight.

Monday: MVFR/IFR with rain AM, improving in the afternoon. SW/W
winds G25-30 kt.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With increasing winds ahead of a cold front SCA conditions 
develop on the ocean waters early this morning, and then with 
the passage of the front later today, northerly gusts continue 
at SCA levels through tonight. SCA on all waters through early
Friday address this.

Low pressure then passes south of the waters Friday night 
through Saturday. Conditions will remain below SCA levels Friday
into Friday night. Winds and seas build behind the system later
Saturday with the next potential of SCA conditions. Seas should
briefly subside Sunday. Another frontal system impacts the 
waters Sunday night. This will bring another threat of SCA 
conditions. Behind the system on Monday, gales are possible and 
this is mentioned in the HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday 
     afternoon for CTZ005-009.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday 
     afternoon for NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday 
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DBR
HYDROLOGY...DBR