AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1039 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation for the 15Z amendments.

There is a high rip current risk for the ocean beaches today.

Confidence is increasing in a period of heavy rainfall late 
Sunday through Monday, with an isolated flash flood potential.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches today.

2) Mainly dry and seasonable conditions this weekend. 
Increasing humidity each day.

3) The potential is increasing for periods of heavy rain Sunday
night into Monday. Unsettled conditions continue into midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Based on similar conditions to what we saw across the area on
Friday, with continued S/SE swells around 3ft 8s and south 
winds in the afternoon at 10-15kt, a high rip current risk is in
effect for the ocean beaches today. The swell direction is 
nearly perpendicular to the coastline, maximizing waves heights
in the surf zones at 3 to 4 ft. 

For Sunday, a moderate rip current risk is more likely with
swell height and period diminishing some.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Weak ridging aloft remains in control to start the weekend, as 
the ridge axis aloft slides east of the local area by Saturday 
afternoon. Increasing southerly flow results as the surface high
remains to our east. A weak midlevel shortwave with cold pool 
aloft may spark an isolated shower/thunderstorm Saturday 
afternoon, especially north and west of NYC. Thermodynamic 
profiles do show some available MUCAPE in the 500-1000J/kg range
after 18Z, per the HRRR, with weakening CIN. Other CAMs 
maintain a warm layer aloft/cap, and do not develop any activity
between 18 and 00Z. Have opted for slight chance PoPs across 
the interior for this, but again current thinking is that any 
activity is isolated at best, coverage- wise. Any storms that do
develop should wane by evening.

Given the increasing southerly flow, expect moisture advection and 
humidity levels to noticeably start increasing Saturday afternoon 
into Sunday. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels, in the mid 
80s across the board. 

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Positively tilted upper trough with attendant closed low over 
the Central Plains on Saturday ejects out into the OH Valley by 
Sunday evening, shearing as it does so. Surface low pressure 
accompany this feature, and approaches the local area on Monday.

With increased moisture advection commencing ahead of this system, a 
tropical-like airmass will be in place as rain chances begin to 
increase Sunday afternoon and evening.  Ensemble PWATS approach or 
exceed 2.0" by Sunday night into early Monday, which is above the 
90th percentile for the date per SPC sounding climo.  As the upper 
trough and low approach, lift becomes better and rain with possible 
thunder becomes potentially heavier Monday morning. Any convection 
has the potential to train as well, increasing the heavy 
precipitation threat, with low and upper level flow aligned.

Heaviest precipitation, and thus threat for any flooding looks to 
occur Monday into Monday afternoon. Total amounts at this point look 
to be in the 1-2" range area-wide, with higher amounts possible. NBM 
probabilities of >2" are in the 10-30% range, and have increased 
with each successive model run. While we are not quite in the window 
of the convective allowing models, which may help to highlight the 
axes of heaviest precipitation, the WPC Urban Rainfall Rate Dashboard 
is already advertising the possibility of >1" per hour rainfall 
rates for NYC early Monday from this event. These numbers will be 
refined with subsequent forecast cycles as we go through the weekend. 
Isolated flash flooding would be possible given this setup, 
especially in urban areas and spots that received significant 
rainfall earlier this week. WPC maintains the slight risk of 
excessive rainfall for western portions of the area, which include 
northeastern NJ, NYC, much of CT, western Long Island, and the Lower 
Hudson Valley for Monday.

Rain tapers late Monday but continues again Tuesday. It will not be 
as widespread into midweek, but guidance continues to indicate still 
the chance for showers and thunderstorms through at least
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure weakens across the area today, while low 
pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley tracks slowly east 
through the weekend.

Mainly VFR. Low confidence of MVFR/IFR conditions returning 
tonight, mainly for KGON.

Light SW or light and variable winds will become S/SSE by early
afternoon, increasing to 10-15 kt. A few gusts up to around 20 
kt are possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Occasional 20 kt gusts possible in the afternoon/early evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of a late day shower or tstm. S/SE 
winds G15-20kt. 

Monday-Wednesday: Sub-VFR in showers and thunderstorms. S winds
G20kt Monday.
 
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions on the waters are likely into early Sunday. 
There may be an occasional gust this afternoon to 25 kt from 
Sandy Hook to Fire Island inlet.

Marginal SCA potential for wind gusts on Sunday with higher chances 
of SCA conditions starting on Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DBR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DBR