Area Forecast Discussion

Severe Weather for Northeast Southeastward into the Southern Plains; Flooding in the Upper Great Lakes

Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast to Texas through the night and for the Central/Southern Plains on Friday. Considerable flooding impacts are ongoing in the Upper Great Lakes, and expected to continue through the weekend. Fire weather concerns persist in the Plains and the mid-Atlantic. There is late-season snow over the Northern/Central Rockies and the Northern Plains. Read More >

AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 733 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder weather for the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Friday will be the last of the really warm temperatures this week, although not as warm as today. Expect temperatures on Friday to be in the 70s and lower 80s. This will still be a good 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Still felt like parts of long Island were too cool on the NBM, (which has been the case all week) so I did manually adjust the temperatures up a bit. There will also be more cloud cover along with a chance for some showers. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A frontal boundary remains stalled north of the forecast area through tonight. A wave of low pressure will travel along the front which may result in some showers overnight, however the better forcing for showers and thunderstorms remains north of the forecast area. As the surface front starts to drop southward late tonight into Friday morning, expect the chance for showers to increase a bit, however most of the forecast guidance has most of the precipitation dissipating as it approaches the area. Will keep just slight chance POPs with the frontal passage early Friday. It looks like the best chances for any shower/thunder development will be focused on the eastern sections of the CWA late Friday into Friday evening as an upper level trough moves across the area. CAMs seem to be focusing on an area of eastern CT and possibly the Twin Forks. Have bumped up POPs a bit here to likely. NBM thunder chances seem low, but probably just enough to warrant the need to mention a chance of thunder. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A stronger cold front will move across the region on Sunday, bringing another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Good cold air advection kicks in on a NW flow behind the front and temperatures quickly fall by late in the evening and overnight. Any lingering areas of rain may mix with some sleet or snow as the precipitation comes to an end. Lows Sunday night drop into the 30s, except near 40 in the NYC metro area. The cold pool aloft builds in Mon with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 520dam. The steep lapse rates should allow for at least isold-sct shwrs, possibly mixed with snow or ice pellets. The NBM pops may be a bit too low. Temperatures Monday night will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A prefrontal trough moves across the area this evening followed by a cold front passage on Friday. Mainly VFR. A few showers are possible across the Lower Hudson Valley this evening after 01z. Isolated showers are also possible overnight elsewhere, but not enough confidence/coverage to include in TAF at this time. PROB30s for showers have been added at all terminals for Friday afternoon/early evening with the cold front passage. Sustained winds falL below 10 kt overnight. Winds will veer to the NW early Friday morning and then the NE late Friday afternoon and evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: Chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, especially at night. Saturday: Chance of MVFR ceilings. Sunday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely. W winds gusts 20 kt in the afternoon and evening. Monday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves will remain to come close to 5 ft on the ocean waters out to 20 NM. Some seas will come close to 6 ft on the on the far eastern ocean waters from 20-60mm. Otherwise conditions will remain below SCA levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will likely bring SCA conditions Sunday and Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...BR MARINE...BC