AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1026 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic
today as a cold front approaches from the west and then passes
through tonight. Weak high pressure briefly returns on Tuesday
before the front returns as a warm front on Wednesday. A series
of low pressure centers then impact the weather through Friday,
and possibly into the weekend. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fog has become really patchy with most locations greater than a
mile, with the exception being right along the oceanfront. Fog 
is likely to persist in the adjacent waters into at least early 
afternoon, and possibly this evening for the ocean waters.
Potential is there for another round of low clouds/fog this 
tonight ahead of a cold front. Best chances will be across LI 
and coastal CT. 

Meanwhile, a closed upper low swings into eastern Canada and 
will help send a cold front through the region tonight.

Temperatures jump 10 to 20 degrees compared to Sunday with 
ongoing WAA in the resulting SW flow, likely rebounding into 
the low to mid 70s away from the coast. Should more breaks in 
the cloud cover develop, temperatures inland could achieve mid 
to upper 70s.

Can't rule out a few pop up showers in the afternoon, mainly
across the interior, ahead of the trailing cold front, but 
coverage appears limited on CAMs at this point with weak lift 
and moisture. Maintained a low chance of a thunderstorm as well,
but likely isolated at best. The front moves through tonight, 
and the flow veers NW as a result, bringing in drier air and 
decreasing cloud cover overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes behind 
the fropa on Tuesday. This should set up the clearest day of the
week so far, with drier air working down in the northerly flow.
A mild afternoon for most with downsloping helping the interior
and areas away from the coast to warm into the mid to upper 
70s. Lower 80s possible in the urban metro of NE NJ. Much more 
sky than clouds should be apparent and sunshine prevails much of
the day.

Thereafter, the front that pushed through Monday night stalls 
over the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday in zonal flow, returning to the
region Tuesday night as a warm front as the high erodes and low
pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. This will reintroduce 
rain chances by Wed AM, and perhaps some thunderstorms into 
Wednesday afternoon. Still a bit too far for our CAM coverage, 
so timing and coverage will need to be refined over the next day
or two. SPC currently has the region outlined in a general
thunder risk.

Wednesday is likely the hottest day of the week for at least 
portions of the area as the warm front attempts to lift north. 
Exceptions may be eastern LI and southern CT, where onshore
southerly flow will limit temperatures. Elsewhere, low 80s 
possible, with mid 80s into NE NJ. The attendant cold front 
passes through Wednesday night as the low exits to our east, but
the pattern remains unsettled into late week as a wave of low 
pressure along the boundary to the south approaches thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley on Thursday with a 
secondary low center forming and passing over us or just off to our 
south Thursday night. As energy continues to transfer from the 
parent low to the secondary low center, a lingering trough between 
the two centers remains near the forecast area during Friday. Rain 
is likely Thursday and Thursday night, with still some chances of 
showers during Friday with moisture convergence along the trough 
along with some shortwave lift from aloft. An isolated rumble of 
thunder can't be ruled out mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as 
elevated instability will be present.

There's some uncertainty regarding the weekend, but overall there 
seems to be a model trend over the past day or two toward drier 
conditions. Although both days currently feature a chance of showers 
in the forecast, it can very well end up dry all weekend. There are 
indications of deep weak ridging for Saturday, then an area of low 
pressure that may pass too far to our south and west on Sunday to 
bring showers.

NBM was used for temperatures through the long term period. Cooler 
than normal through Saturday with a return toward more seasonable 
temperatures on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic
today as a cold front approaches from the west and then passes
through tonight. 

Still seeing mainly IFR cond with pockets of LIFR hanging on at
KISP/KGON. Overall, conditions are improving slightly ahead of 
schedule and have made some unscheduled amendments to reflect
this trend. 

Cond should improve to MVFR this afternoon at most terminals,
and it is possible that cigs may even scatter for a time late
this afternoon mainly north/west of KJFK/KISP/KGON. IFR/MVFR
cond this evening should improve to VFR late tonight. 

There is chance of a late day shower and possibly a tstm as
well, with probability and coverage too low for TAF mention. 

Light/vrb winds shift more SW-W for this afternoon, then become
N late tonight. 

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement in flight cat has been running slightly ahead of
schedule this morning, and cigs may even scatter for a time 
this afternoon. Chance that KJFK remains IFR all day. 

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late with MVFR 
cond possible. 

Wednesday: MVFR or lower AM, improving to VFR PM. Chance of
showers. Tstms possible mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, mainly 
in the afternoon and at night. 

Friday: MVFR/VFR with showers possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog advisories are now in effect for all waters. Do expect
improvement on the non-ocean waters by early afternoon, however,
the ocean may last into this evening. For the time, it's in 
effect until noontime for the non-ocean waters and 2 pm for the
ocean.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions 
through Wednesday.

Easterly winds increase on Thursday, and this onshore flow combined 
with swell being generated from low pressure passing nearby is 
expected to build ocean seas to advisory levels starting late 
Thursday night into Friday morning, and lasting well into Friday 
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new
moon Tuesday night. 

A statement has been issued for localized minor flooding with 
tonight's high tide cycle for Southern Fairfield County and the 
south shore back bays of Nassau County.

A more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate 
advisories for these two locations plus Southern Queens will more 
likely occur with the nighttime cycles from Tuesday night through 
at least Thursday night. Statements for these 3 high tide cycles
may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound, SW Suffolk
County, as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ331-332-335-338-
     340-345.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/BG
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...