AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
239 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Improving conditions expected tonight will lead to a gradual
warming trend through the end of the week. 

2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and
Friday afternoon and evenings. 

3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably 
warm temperatures. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wave of low pressure passes well offshore tonight allowing for
drier air to filter into the low levels. Lingering light rain, 
mainly across CT and parts of LI, will end this evening. Dry 
conditions will return overnight and continue through Thursday 
morning. 

High pressure builds over the area on Wednesday. Temperatures
will start to warm, but still remain below average with highs 
in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the
southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue 
to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the 
lower to middle 80s. 

The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs 
could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with
most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices 
should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will 
be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The 
forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat 
advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time). 


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast
on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely
to set up across the area. The combination of these features 
supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the 
afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of
the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the 
highest probabilities across the southern half of the area 
including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. 
Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work 
east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE 
values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating
1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence. 
0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should 
limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a 
general thunderstorm risk for Day 3/Thursday. 

A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to
pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a 
cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The 
system will bring potential for another round of showers and 
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest 
model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north 
and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging 
around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific 
details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is
still 4 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal 
probability for a severe thunderstorm. 

PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days.
It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding 
impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an 
excessive rainfall outlook. 


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates 
ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east
and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions 
mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably
warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into 
early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. 


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will exit to the east this evening with high
pressure returning on Wednesday. 

Mixed bag of MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through this 
afternoon and possibly into this evening before conditions
gradually improve tonight. Widespread MVFR is expected tonight 
with widespread VFR returning by early Wednesday morning. 

NNE to NE winds at around 10 knots are expected through the
majority of the TAF period with winds beginning to shift to the
S/SW early Wednesday afternoon. Periodic gusts of 20 to 25 
knots are possible mainly this afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Conditions may fluctuate between MVFR/IFR through early this 
evening. Amendments may be needed.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. 

Thursday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening 
showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions 
possible.

Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been extended on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet
through 18z Wednesday due to lingering 5-6 ft seas. Seas will
diminish west of Moriches Inlet tonight and then on all waters
on Wednesday with high pressure returning. A frontal system
passes across the waters late Friday into Friday night. 
Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the upcoming 
weekend. 

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists into
Friday. 

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...DS