AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated aft-eve shower activity today and Tuesday, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms.


2) An approaching frontal system will bring a more widespread
potential for heavy downpours and iso-sct thunderstorms 
Thursday into Thursday Night. Additional isolated thunderstorm 
activity possible Friday aft/eve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
 
Closed upper level low opens and lifts through Quebec and northern 
New England through Tuesday night, with one shortwave approaching 
late today and sliding thru tonight, and another shortwave crossing 
Tuesday afternoon. At the surface, respective weak pre-frontal 
troughs will cross the region this evening and Tue aft/eve as 
well.

Isolated aft/eve shower and slight thunderstorm threat into 
this evening for most of the area, and Tue aft/eve (mainly 
across the interior) in response to above trigger and focus as 
they translate across the region in a generally marginally 
unstable/modest shear environment. Primary threat will be for 
brief heavy downpours and locally strong wind gusts in a fairly 
dry mid and low level environment.

Otherwise, near seasonable temps and comfortable humidity levels 
under upper troughing and Canadian airmass. Good radiational
cooling conds tonight and Tue Night will bring potential for 
patchy fog, particularly river valleys.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Developing Hudsons Bay low will deepen upper troughing into the 
Great lakes Thursday, with a series of weak shortwaves rotating
around its base into the NE US Thu-Fri. At the surface, a weak 
warm front and pre-frontal trough approaches from the southwest 
Thursday into Thursday Eve, crosses Thu Night, with cold 
frontal passage Fri aft. 

Strengthening but modest deep S/SW flow ahead of these features will 
gradually increase moisture and instability into the area Thu 
afternoon into evening. Overall forcing is modest, but distinct 
focus along pre-frontal trough and nearby warm front/triple 
point low, should be sufficient for an increasing likelihood for
showers and scattered thunderstorms from west to east during 
the day Thursday. Main threat appears to be heavy downpours with
localized flash flooding potential with PWATS increasing to 
around 2", semi- tropical airmass and weak MBE vectors.
Timing/location of this localized flash flood threat will 
depend on surface low track, but primary threat across urbanized 
NE NJ, NYC metro, and surroundings. An isolated strong to 
severe wet microburst is not out of the question in modest 
instability/ weak shear environment, particularly Thu aft/eve. 

Deepest moisture axis appears to slide east later Thursday Night 
into Friday morning, but potential exists for iso to widely sct 
shower and thunderstorms activity on Friday aft along trailing 
cold front. Threat for an isolated strong to severe 
thunderstorm once again on Friday with modest instability, but 
a slightly stronger shear and dry air entrainment environment. 

Highs Thursday and Friday remain near seasonable, in the low to
mid 80s but with a more humid airmass (Tds in the upper 60s) to
near 70. Max heat indices reach in the upper 80s to near 90 for
NE NJ and NYC metro on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A trough of low pressure lingers across the region today with
high pressure gradually building in from the west.

VFR through the TAF period. Can't rule out a few widely isolated
pop up showers this afternoon, mainly east of NYC terminals, but
confidence remains too low to include in the TAF.

Winds vary from WSW to S, with speeds around 10 kt and gusts 20
to 25 kt through late afternoon. An isolated gust up to 30 kt 
can't be ruled out. Some coastal terminals may not gust, or may 
be more occasional. Gusts diminish and speeds lower early this 
evening. W/WSW flow expected on Tuesday, afternoon gusts 15 to 
20 kt possible.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Isolated gust up to 30 kt possible thru late afternoon. Gusts
may also be more occasional at times.

Isolated shower can't be ruled out this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday PM: VFR. WSW winds 10G15-20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds.

Thursday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR w/ SHRA/TSRA.

Friday: Mostly VFR, sub VFR possible in afternoon w/ SHRA/TSRA.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient remains relatively weak over the waters 
through Wednesday. As a result, conditions on the forecast waters 
are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds, with 
just afternoon nearshore gusts to around 20 kt today and Tuesday.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters (gusts and 
seas) and perhaps southern and eastern bays (gusts) ahead of 
approaching frontal system Thursday into Thursday Night.

Conditions likely falling below SCA Friday, into the weekend.

Rip Currents: 

Moderate risk of rip currents for all waters into this evening
with combo of 2 ft southerly wind wave and a couple of 1 ft SE 
swells.

Low risk of rips for NYC and W LI beaches on Tuesday with a 
combo of 1 ft E/SE wind waves and swells, with moderate for the 
E LI beaches, with a greater influence of 2-3 ft SW wind waves.

Low risk of rips for NYC and W LI beaches on Wednesday with a 
combo of 1 to 2 ft E/SE swells, with moderate risk for E LI 
beaches with a greater mix of 2 ft SE swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...NV