AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
517 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog and black ice this morning, and possibly again 
tonight.

2) Snow showers expected on Sunday.

3) Multiple waves of low pressure will impact the area Tuesday 
through Friday of next week. Little to no impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Weak return flow, as well as residual moisture from the melting 
snowpack, has produced areas fog with some areas of black ice 
this morning. A Special Weather Statement issued earlier this 
morning now includes all zones and lasts through 9am this 
morning. 

As for tonight/early Sunday morning, fog development would be more 
likely to occur during the evening hours before a northerly flow 
strengthens overnight. Because of this timing, freezing fog would 
appear to only be possible well inland tonight due to anticipated 
temperatures.  

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills.

A cold front moves through the area tonight, but with little 
moisture to accompany it. Deeper moisture follows on Sunday along 
with PVA to bring snow/snow showers across the area. NBM PoPs have 
trended upward from the previous runs and qpf fields from several 
models imply the likelihood of precipitation occurring, so have gone 
above NBM PoPs for Sunday. Precip should be exiting out of the 
eastern zones by the end of the day. Thermal profiles support snow, 
although boundary layer profiles are close to allowing some rain to 
potentially mix in for southern zones. Will keep the forecast as all 
snow. Above-freezing temps through the event and daytime timing will 
mitigate snow accumulations. Anticipating 1-2 inches of snow across 
CT and much of Lower Hudson Valley, with under an inch elsewhere. 
Minor impacts for the most part, but brief moderate/heavier snowfall 
may overcome any melting on the roadways for a short time. Special 
Weather Statements should be able to handle impact messaging as 
needed. 

Colder air filters in from the north during Sunday night with 
minimum wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Monday only in 
the 20s for most spots. 


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Upper air pattern is forecast to change this period as a trough 
becomes established across the western half of the country by the 
end of the period, with broad upper level ridging across the east. 
This will support a period of mild weather with a storm track 
generally to the north and west of the forecast area. This supports 
mainly rain through the week. But with cold air in place Tuesday 
morning, precipitation ahead of a warm front may initially start off 
as snow before going over to rain. Transition likely occurs before a 
steadier precipitation develops. Expect little or no snowfall 
accumulation at the coast with perhaps and inch or two across the 
interior. Low pressure passes to the northeast Tuesday night into 
Wednesday with conditions briefly drying out Wednesday. Another 
frontal wave approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday 
night into Thursday bringing chances of rain into the area.

Temperatures trending warmer than normal starting on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control today while gradually 
moving offshore. A cold front approaches this evening.

Periods of sub VFR for most terminals early this morning, then VFR
expected for much of the day, before a period of sub VFR returning
towards or just before 00z Sunday.

There remains uncertainty around the degree of vsby restrictions in 
fog, and low ceilings with stratus this morning. Fog has started
to develop, the question is how far will the fog expand and just
how bad will it get. A few terminals could get down to VLIFR, 
otherwise mainly LIFR and IFR expected. There is a relatively 
higher confidence for sub VFR conditions for the city and NJ 
terminals, with somewhat less confidence for KSWF and KISP, 
KBDR, and KGON.

Light and variable winds this morning. A light S to SSW flow 
develops after sunrise, with winds 5 to 10 kt at times during
the afternoon and mainly out of the SW, with possible gusts for
KSWF. Winds generally at or below 5 kt Saturday evening.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Unscheduled amendments are possible overnight and through the day 
Saturday into Saturday evening. Sub VFR conditions, with IFR and 
MVFR conditions may extend into the day Saturday, but confidence of 
this remains low.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late tonight: Pockets of Sub VFR at times early with light 
winds, otherwise mainly VFR with winds becoming N.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with light snow showers or flurries. 
N/NW winds G15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming 
plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north.

Wednesday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain, mainly in the 
morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part today through 
Tuesday. The exception being Sunday night on the ocean when gusts 
around 25kt will be possible as the pressure gradient tightens with 
northerly gusts.  

There will then be a chance of marginal SCA conditions on the ocean 
waters next week as multiple waves of low pressure pass to the NW 
with warm frontal passages. The first chance will be Tuesday night 
into Wednesday in the warm sector as SW winds strengthen.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC