AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
630 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 8PM for the
Twin Forks of Long Island.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow continues across the eastern portions of the region into
this evening. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for
the Twin Forks, with a Special Weather Statement for western
Suffolk and much of southern CT. 

2) Extreme Cold Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect
for the entire region.

3) Temperatures moderate a bit mid-week through the weekend, but 
still remain below normal.

4) Chances of light snow mid-week and to start the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light to occasionally moderate snow remains across eastern Long
Island as a vort max continues to rotate through the region as 
a negatively tilted upper trough moves slowly eastward. This 
upper trough along with a low level trough from offshore low 
pressure has combined to produce heavier snowfall earlier in the
day. And with the cold airmass in place snow ratios have been 
running up to near 30 to 1, also contributing to the high 
snowfall totals. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Twin Forks
continues until 8PM this evening. By this time guidance shows 
the bulk of low and mid level lift offshore with the upper level
trough axis east of the area.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
No changes have been made to the Extreme Cold Warnings in effect
until 100 PM EST Sunday, and the Wind Advisories in effect until
Midnight tonight. An Arctic front moved across the region this
morning bringing potentially the coldest airmass of the winter
season. Strong winds and gusts remain with a strong pressure
gradient force across the region and strong cold advection.
Winds will be gradually diminishing late tonight with the
strongest cold advection ending. However, with the cold airmass
in place wind chill values will be lowering into tonight as will
likely reach as low as 15 degrees below zero to 22 degrees 
below zero. Sunday's high temperatures remain as much as 20 
degrees below. Sunday night remains cold and windy as the high
builds slowly toward the area, with wind chill values falling 
to as low as 5 degrees below zero to 15 degrees below zero, and
Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed across the 
region.


.KEY MESSAGE 3... 
Shortwave ridging aloft builds in on Tuesday with a warm front 
moving through at the surface as high pressure weakens. This will 
aid in temperatures moderating and getting back up into the 30s. A 
cold front does eventually move through later Tuesday night, but the 
airmass that builds in is not as cold as some of the previous 
airmasses we have seen this winter. The pattern at the surface from 
Wednesday through Saturday will basically be high pressure gradually 
building in, with some shortwaves rotating through aloft as well as 
associated weak surface troughs. This will keep temperatures 
relatively steady, 30s for highs, 20s and teens for lows.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Chances of light snow comes from the aforementioned pattern from mid 
to late week. First chance will be with the frontal system Tuesday 
into Wednesday. The bulk of the moisture and lift with this system 
look to pass north and east of the area. The highest PoPs are for 
the northern interior and eastern CT and LI. Current NBM QPF mean is 
under a tenth of an inch of liquid.

Additional slight chances of snow late in the week into Saturday as 
aforementioned troughs move through. Confidence in this is low as 
moisture at this time will be very limited.

Both events are expected to be sub-Advisory (less than 3 inches of 
snow) at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states will 
slowly build east through Sunday. At the same time, deepening 
low pressure departs across the western Atlantic. 

Occasional MVFR ceilings and IFR vsbys at eastern terminals this 
eve in light snow and/or blowing snow. Otherwise, VFR thru the
TAF period.

NW winds 15-25kt with G30-40kt through the first half of the night, 
then dropping off to 25-30kt by daybreak Sunday and continuing 
thru the day. Winds diminish slowly after 19Z, and more 
substantially aft 2Z. 

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts up to 50 kt possible this eve.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR. NW winds 10-15 gusts around 15-20 kt. 

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: slight chance of light snow in the afternoon and at night.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NW winds with gusts 15-20 kt.  

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Strong and gusty northwest winds continues across the forecast
waters tonight into Sunday morning, as deepening low pressure
develops this evening south of the waters and tracks northeast
into Sunday, and high pressure builds in to the west of the
waters. A Gale Warning remains on all the waters through
tonight, and on the ocean waters through Sunday morning. In
addition, with a cold airmass over the waters, rough seas, and
strong gusty winds, freezing spray is likely, and a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning, with ice accretion of 0.8 inches per 
hour are possible on all the waters except New York Harbor, and 
the Long Island eastern bays where accretion will be under 0.8 
inches per hour and a Freezing Spray Advisory remains in effect 
for tonight. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning continues on the 
ocean waters into Sunday morning. Winds and gusts will be 
diminishing later tonight through Sunday night as high pressure
builds closer to the waters and low pressure moves well to the 
northeast. Once gales end Small Craft Advisories will be needed 
on the non-ocean waters through Sunday, and on the ocean into at
least Monday morning.

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Tuesday through 
Saturday. Brief 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas are possible on the 
ocean waters on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR:  18/1985
KBDR:  18/1994
KNYC:   8/1895
KLGA:  21/1985
KJFK:  22/1967
KISP:  20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934 
KBDR:   5/1963 
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA:   7/1979 
KJFK:   8/1979 
KISP:   5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all 
time record lows for those sites. Temperatures are not expected
to fall to those levels.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ005>012.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NYZ079-
     081.
NJ...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon EST Sunday for ANZ331-
     332-335-350-353-355.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until noon EST Sunday for ANZ338-340.
     Gale Warning until noon EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MET/JT
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/JT