AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
155 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence for showers and along with a slight chance of 
a thunderstorms Memorial Day morning, with drier conditions for the 
afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet and cool conditions continue tonight into the first half of 
Memorial Day, with gradual improvement in the afternoon.

2) High risk of rip currents continue into Memorial Day. High Surf 
advisory continue through the rest of the day. 

3) Warmer and mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday through 
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1... 
The first wave of low pressure passing over the region will push 
eastward later this afternoon and this evening with a main batch of 
precipitation sliding eastward. The steady rainfall this afternoon 
will be become more light rain/drizzle for this evening and 
overnight along with areas of fog with a warm front near the region. 

For Memorial Day, Confidence continues to increase with models in 
good agreement. The warm front moves north of the area late tonight 
into Monday morning. A wave of low pressure then drags a cold front 
through the area Monday morning with a shortwave passing through 
aloft. It is likely that the precipitation that moves across the 
area Monday morning will be more convective in nature as shown in 
latest CAMs. Latest NAM and GFS continue to show pwats ahead of this 
cold front between 1.75-2.00 inches, which is well above the max 
moving average for the OKX observed sounding climatology. This will 
result in some higher rainfall rates for the area with isolated 
heavy downpours. The good thing is that the speed of the showers 
will be fairly quick. Average rainfall amounts on Monday morning 
will be around a quarter of an inch, with higher amounts likely in 
the heavier downpours. Rainfall rates are not expected to exceed 
0.75 inches per hour. Drier conditions are then expected for the 
afternoon hours with temperatures warming into the 70s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A high risk of rip currents continues through Memorial Day due
to a persistent easterly flow and building swell. While Memorial
Day afternoon will dry out and warm up, the lingering swell will
continue to bring dangerous rip currents.

The building swell looks to peak today around 9 to 10 ft at 9
seconds out of the E/SE. This will bring breaking waves between
4 and 9 ft resulting in the High Surf Advisory. Breaking waves 
will be lower for Memorial Day.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Warmer and mainly dry conditions are becoming increasingly likely 
Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures on Tuesday will 
likely be above normal in the mid to upper 70s, with some low 80s 
for the usual warmer spots. A cold front approaches on Wednesday. 
Ahead of the front, temperatures may rise into the mid 80s. The 
front should pass through dry, but bring a return to seasonably warm 
conditions for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front slowly approaches from the south through this 
evening, before lifting over the terminals late tonight and 
early Monday. A cold quickly follows late Monday morning into 
Monday afternoon.

IFR conditions will continue through early this evening. Light 
rain will also continue this afternoon, but transition to 
drizzle this evening. Ceilings will lower to LIFR this evening 
with visibilities becoming LIFR this evening into the overnight.
There is a chance for visibilities to lower to 1/4SM in fog 
tonight. 

A round of showers is expected Monday morning. There is also a 
chance for a thunderstorm and have handled this potential 
Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR Monday morning. 

E-NE winds around 10-15 kt this afternoon will weaken this evening, 
becoming under 10 kt this evening. Light and variable flow will 
occur overnight into early Monday morning, becoming W-SW late 
morning into the afternoon under 10 kt. 

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

LIFR conditions may develop 2-4 hours sooner than forecast this 
afternoon/early evening. 

There is a chance for 1/4SM FG this evening into early Monday 
morning.

Amendments to timing of PROB30 TSRA Monday morning possible. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: Becoming VFR.

Tuesday-Friday: VFR. 

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The gusty east winds on the area waters will continue to diminish 
and drop off significantly by tonight into Monday. A Small Craft 
Advisory remains in effect for all waters through this afternoon and 
then continue on just the ocean waters tonight for lingering 
elevated seas. The elevated seas look to continue into Memorial day, 
so have extended the SCAs for the ocean waters. For the ocean waters 
from Sandy hook to Jones beach out 20nm, the Advisory is through 
Monday evening and from Jones Beach Inlet to Montauk and out 20 NM 
the Advisory goes through Monday night. 

Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC