AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
942 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential light snow accumulation well NW of NYC with minimal 
impacts for late tonight into Thursday morning.

2) Breezy and cold Thursday night with winds and wind chills short 
of advisory thresholds.

3) Unsettled weather this weekend with potential of a coastal low 
pressure Sunday into Sunday night.

4) Much colder air expected Sunday through the middle of next week 
with temperatures potentially below freezing Monday through 
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mainly rain showers possible through tonight with isentropic 
and low level jet lift this evening and a shortwave and 
approaching cold front late tonight. Forecast soundings and 
freezing level heights indicate snow starting to mix in well NW 
of the city and mainly in the higher elevations near daybreak 
Thursday as the cold front starts moving through. Not much 
liquid equivalent precipitation left by the time profiles 
support all snow. Any snow accumulation will be under a half of 
an inch for well NW of the city with limited impacts for the 
morning commute. Dry outside of a stray snow shower/flurry for 
the interior Thursday afternoon into early evening.

.KEY MESSAGE 2... 
Winds increase behind the cold front on Thursday with a 
tightening pressure gradient. Westerly downsloping winds should 
offset the cold air advection somewhat before stronger advection
begins in the afternoon to evening. Wind speeds aloft only 
supportive of surface gusts below advisory thresholds 
Thurs/Thursday night with wind chills falling into the single 
digits for most areas late Thursday night/early Friday morning. 

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes and an associated upper trough 
will send a cold front into the area on Saturday. The energy in the 
trough is broad, but there is enough lift and moisture to support 
chance probabilities for precip on Saturday. Thermal profiles are 
marginal for anything frozen, but some colder air will start moving 
in as the front passes across the region to support mention of some 
light snow along with light rain, especially from the NYC metro on 
north. Any precip will be light with little to no impacts currently 
expected due to the marginal boundary layer temperatures and overall 
weak system. 

The cold front passes moves offshore Saturday night. Large upper 
trough over the eastern US will likely amplify with potential of 
energy rounding the base of the trough on Sunday. Depending on the 
amplification/amplitude of the energy, low pressure may develop off 
the Middle Atlantic coast. The current consensus has this low 
tracking far enough east of the area for any concerns. However, some 
of the 12z model guidance has trended west with the system which 
would bring an increasing potential for precipitation across at 
least the eastern portion of the area. This system is still 5 days 
out and there are many areas of sensitivity to the overall evolution 
of this potential system. For this forecast, have gone ahead and 
bumped PoPs up to low chance for the eastern two thirds of the area 
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Colder air should be over the 
area by this time, so any precip would be in the form of snow. This 
time period bears watching in subsequent forecasts. 

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A colder temperature regime begins on Sunday with highs in the lower 
to middle 30s. Deep upper troughing will then persist over the 
eastern US allowing for arctic air to funnel down into the region. 
Highs Monday through next Wednesday should remain below freezing 
with highs on Tuesday potentially not rising out of the 20s. 
Nighttime temperatures will likely be in the teens at night. While 
it is a bit early for specific details on wind chills, there is some 
potential for winds to combine with the cold temperatures for wind 
chills in the single digits to around 0 Monday night into Tuesday 
night. These details will be fine tined as confidence increases with 
respect to the magnitude of the winds over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure over north central Pennsylvania into central
upstate New York will track northeast through tonight, sending 
a cold front across the area Thursday morning. Low pressure
continues to track northeast, away from the region, Thursday as
high pressure builds to the southwest.

Trends have become more optimistic for VFR through the 
overnight with a chance of MVFR ceilings mainly late tonight 
into Thursday morning, after 09Z to around 14Z. Any rain that 
occurs this evening and into the overnight will be light and 
scattered.

Winds SE-ESE at less than 10 kt ahead of a surface trough or 
weak warm front approaching from the south. Winds will then veer
back to the SW late tonight into the early morning hours with 
the approach of a cold front, and then become W with the passage
of the front Thursday morning. Gusty WSW winds develop behind 
the cold front 15-20 kt G25-30 kt, with higher gusts possible 
during the afternoon, with gusts peaking at 35 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance of amendments overnight for MVFR and timing.

Timing of wind shifts could be 1-2 hours later early Thursday 
morning, and onset of wind gusts could be delayed 1-2 hours.

Chances of IFR ceilings overnight have diminished, and are low.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 25 to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower at times with low 
chance of rain and/or snow.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow.

Monday: VFR W winds gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean waters through tonight and Thursday,
primarily for seas through tonight, but winds ramp up on 
Thursday. Gales then expected as early as around midnight Thurs 
night through Friday morning, so have upgraded the previous Gale
Watch to a Warning. For the other waters, SCA for 14z Thurs 
through Friday morning. SCA conds likely on the ocean Friday 
afternoon through the rest of the forecast period. Elevated 
ocean seas between 5-7 ft are likely to continue through Monday.
Winds on Saturday should remain below SCA levels with the next 
potential period of SCA winds Sunday into Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to noon EST Friday for 
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM Thursday to noon EST Friday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DS