AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
242 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances have been increased to likely for portions of the
area tonight and Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Some rain, mainly light, is expected thru Saturday.

2) A slow-moving frontal system will lead to increasing rain chances 
mid-to-late week with decreasing temperatures. Thunderstorms are 
also a concern late Tuesday into Wednesday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
H5 low over ON will drift into QC on Sat. The flow will bring a
wave thru tngt, which will interact with an inverted trof across
the area into Sat mrng. The best dpva is across the nrn portion
of the cwa, so this is where chances for rain are highest tngt,
then as interaction with the trof occurs, further development
swd is possible into Sat mrng. Moisture transport is weak with
this sys, with modeled PWs maxing out at around 3/4 inch. As a
result, QPF is low. There is a chance however that pcpn may be a
bit more widespread and focused on Sat mrng across srn areas due
to the sfc trof, with NBM POPs too low. Still low QPF, but a
little rainier than fcst nonetheless.

The second shot of rain comes late in the day to Sat ngt as low
pres develops offshore and tracks out over the Atlc E of the 
benchmark. Based on this expected track which is supported by 
the ECMWF, GFS, and AI-GFS, some additional light rain, mainly 
the ern half of the cwa, is all that is expected if anything 
attm.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A large upper-level trough will gradually amplify over the Great 
Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday into Thursday, eventually traversing 
the region on Friday. Just east of this trough, a stalled front will 
remain situated to our north and west. Several waves of surface low 
pressure may pass along it, which will lead to several shots at 
rainfall mid to late week. 

Tuesday will remain mostly under a ridge that gradually exits east. 
Higher heights will lead to warm temperatures with highs in the mid 
60s to low 80s across the area. Wednesday will also remain mildly 
warm with highs in the 60s and low 70s.

Given warmer air, higher humidity, and a nearby frontal system, rain 
chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a chance for 
thunderstorms, as well. 

On Thursday, the now amplified longwave trough nears the area which 
finally sends the main frontal system through the area. This leads 
to more widespread rainfall, but also cooler and milder temperatures 
Thursday going into Friday. The 13Z NBM is currently projecting mean 
48-hr (Wed AM - Fri AM) rainfall around 1.00" with 90th percentiles 
around 1.50" to 2.00". 

Winds become quite gusty as well with tightening pressure gradient 
between high pressure offshore and approaching frontal system 
Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there will likely be some 
limitations with the low level warm air advection and less favorable 
mixing environment.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore overnight as a weak front moves 
through Saturday morning. A stronger area of low pressure then moves 
up the coast Saturday into Sunday, but largely remains well offshore 
of the area.

VFR through much of the TAF period. MVFR possible late tonight into 
early Saturday morning with -SHRA associated with an approaching 
cold front. Best chances for any rain is KSWF. 

Sea breeze likely develops today, with coastal terminals becoming S 
or SSW. Winds then shift back to the W/NW tomorrow morning following 
the frontal passage.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

Timing of sea breeze (S/SSW) this afternoon could be off by an
hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: Additional -SHRA possible late in the day for KISP and 
KGON. Light flow.

Sunday: VFR with NW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt.

Monday: VFR with SW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt. 

Tuesday: VFR with S flow 10 to around 15 kt, G20 to around 25 kt.
MVFR or lower possible after 00Z.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in SHRA and TSRA. S flow 10 to around 15 
kt, G20 to around 25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. Low pres over
the Atlc will bring winds close to SCA lvls on Sun, with seas on
the ocean likely reaching 5 ft criteria. Increasing S flow on
Mon may produce SCA cond on all waters Mon.

Tuesday through Wednesday, SCA conditions are possible due to an 
approaching frontal system with some possibility of low-end gales, 
as well. 

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$