594
FXUS61 KPHI 221716
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
116 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A high risk of rip currents and cold ocean water temperatures
will create dangerous conditions tomorrow at the New Jersey and
Delaware coasts.

2. Times of much needed rainfall through most of the holiday
weekend and significantly cooler temperatures continuing, then
some warming to end the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A high risk of rip currents and cold ocean water
temperatures will create dangerous conditions tomorrow at the
New Jersey and Delaware coasts.

For tomorrow, an increasing east-northeast wind will range from
15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts. Seas will be increasing
to 4-6 feet through the day. There will be a southeast 2 to 4
foot swell with a period of 10 to 13 seconds. As a result,
there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents on Friday and a Rip Current Risk Statement has been
issued for all of the New Jersey and Delaware coasts.

Ocean temperatures continue to remain mainly in the 50s to low
60s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause
hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly
immersed in the water.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Times of much needed rainfall through most of
the holiday weekend and significantly cooler temperatures
continuing, then some warming to end the holiday weekend.

A front will continue to settle to our south through Friday before
trying to lift back northward over the weekend. Some mid level
ridging slides over our area during Friday and this will result
in surface high pressure building to our north across New
England. This will help keep areas around Philly northward
mostly dry during the day on Friday while areas across the
Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey will see some light
rain. While the surface high across New England will remain in
place through Saturday, a developing low tracking up the Ohio
Valley across the eastern Great Lakes will help increase warm
air advection aloft and help pull the frontal boundary back
northward while running into the surface high. This will lead to a
robust "cold" air damming setup across the region, resulting in
a cool, cloudy, and rainy weekend. Guidance is in good
agreement that showers fill in by later Friday across the
southern zones and then spread northward Friday night into
Saturday, with a more steady rain evolving Saturday and Saturday
night before tapering off Sunday. While the precipitable water
values will be up to about 1.5 inches, this will be within a
more stable low to mid level environment. Some heavier embedded
rain is possible however the risk of thunder looks very low.
This will also result in a rather chilly Saturday with a
noticeable onshore breeze. The system them departs on Sunday
with rain/showers ending overall, and temperatures should warm
some however still be below average.

The pattern looks to remain active early next week, with some
showers around on Memorial Day. It does look warmer for Memorial
Day, but to what extent will depend on cloud cover and shower
chances. While not great timing for the holiday weekend, our region
needs more rain as a long-term drought continues. Rainfall totals
through Friday night are mostly in the 0.10-0.50 inch range, and
then 1-2 inches Saturday into Sunday. In total, around 1.50-2.50
inches of beneficial rainfall are expected over the next three
days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today (through 00z)...Primarily VFR with off and on
light showers at KACY/KMIV. Easterly winds around 10 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt with the exception of KACY where gusts are
around 25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR to start but conditions gradually lowering getting
towards daybreak Saturday. Have some confidence in prevailing
MVFR by daybreak or not long after but lower confidence in the
timing. Thinking KACY/KMIV see lower CIGs first as early as
03z-06z, followed by the I-95 terminals and then eventually the
Lehigh Valley terminals. East or just north of east winds around
10 kt. Low to moderate confidence.

Saturday...MVFR conditions will deteriorate and drop to IFR by
the mid to late morning as widesperad rain moves in. Expecting
drop to IFR by 14z-17z and remain that way through the rest of
the day and into Saturday Night. Brisk east/northeast winds
around 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night..IFR conditions with rain.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR conditions with some rain ending, however
conditions should then improve some.

Monday and Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Some showers still possible.

&&

.MARINE...
East-northeast flow increases Friday morning. Seas will build
through late Friday. The Small Craft Advisory will be in effect
for all marine zones beginning Friday morning with the inclusion
of the waters off coastal Monmouth County. ENE winds gust to
20-25 kts with seas 4 to 6 feet during the day Friday. Winds may
begin to gust close to 30 kts overnight Friday into early
Saturday morning with seas building to 5 to 7 feet.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory
conditions forecast. Brief period of Gale conditions probable.

Sunday through Monday... Small Craft Advisory conditions
probable.

Tuesday...Conditions are forecast to remain below advisory
criteria.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, east-northeast winds will range from 15 to 20 mph
with 25 to 30 mph gusts. There will be a southeast swell with a
period of 10 to 13 seconds and breaking waves of 2 to 4 feet.
As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents on Friday and a Rip Current Risk
Statement has been issued for all of the New Jersey and Delaware
coasts.

On Saturday, winds are more out of the east and will range from
20 to 25 mph with 30 to 35 mph gusts. Seas will reach 6 to 8
feet with a period of 10 to 13 seconds and breaking waves of 2
to 4 feet. This should result in a HIGH risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents.

Ocean temperatures continue to remain mainly in the 50s to low
60s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause
hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly
immersed in the water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJL
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...MJL