390
FXUS61 KPHI 071830
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
130 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added Key Message 2 and updated the aviation and marine sections.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Continuing breezy and cool under mainly sunny to
partly cloudy skies this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.
Sunday will remain on the breezy side with temperatures moderating
some compared to today.

2. A potentially strong coastal storm/nor`easter late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Continuing breezy and cool under mainly sunny to
partly cloudy skies this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.
Sunday will remain on the breezy side with temperatures moderating
some compared to today.

Low pressure and an associated cold front have moved offshore to our
east but in the wake of this system there`s a fairly strong pressure
gradient due to high pressure centered near the center of the
country. This will lead to it continuing breezy this afternoon with
WNW winds generally around 15 gusting up to 25 mph. It should be
mainly sunny for most of the region except up north in the southern
Poconos into NW NJ where there will continue to be a bit more in the
way of cloud cover.

For tonight, the winds remain elevated as the pressure gradient
persists but they will diminish a bit compared to this afternoon,
especially in terms of gustiness. The winds along with some cloud
cover moving through overnight will help keep temperatures from
really bottoming out. Generally expect lows in the low to mid 40s.

For Sunday, temperatures warm a few degrees compared to today with
highs mostly in the low 60s. Some morning clouds will give way to
afternoon sun. Expect west winds generally around 10 to 15 gusting
at times to around 20 mph due to a pressure gradient persisting
between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure to our
south and west.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A potentially strong coastal storm/nor`easter late
next week.

A significant upper-level trough is forecast to evolve across the
eastern U.S. later next week. This should support a surface low that
initially tracks near the Ohio Valley, however a secondary low
should develop in the vicinity of the northern Mid-Atlantic. The
model guidance overall is in decent agreement with the development
of the strong upper-level trough, however there are some differences
on the handling of the embedded shortwaves and thus the surface low.
The timing and amplification of the trough will also have an impact
on the secondary surface low development and track. This will be
important as it will determine where the main forcing for ascent
becomes established along with colder air on the west/northwest side
of the developing coastal storm/nor`easter.

The strength of the parent upper-level trough would result in a
colder air mass moving in with time. This could be sufficiently cold
enough for a rain/snow mix of even some snow across our far western
to northwestern zones. This would have a greater chance of
occurrence if the secondary low develops and takes over instead of
the initial low remaining primary and tracking over our area or to
our west. Elsewhere, a decent amount of rain is possible. The amount
of precipitation (rain and/or snow), and precipitation types for at
least portions of our area, will depend on the ultimate development
and track of the secondary surface low and the associated thermal
profiles that evolve across our region. The coastal impacts,
including the potential for stronger winds and also tidal flooding,
are less certain because if the surface low tracks over our area
that would lessen the residence time of the (stronger) onshore flow.
Lots of uncertainty with the details this far out in time (Thursday
night through Friday night), therefore this time frame will continue
to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR. W-NW winds generally around 15 gusting up to 25
knots. High confidence.

Tonight...Mainly VFR though there will be some low stratus moving
through overnight. Any cigs look to stay mainly in the low VFR range
but can`t rule out that they briefly go to MVFR at RDG and ABE. West
winds generally around 10 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots
possible. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...Some cigs may persist into the morning, especially north,
but otherwise VFR. West winds generally around 10 to 15 knots
gusting up to 20 knots. High confidence overall.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR. West-southwest winds diminishing
Sunday evening, then west-northwest to northwest winds Monday
increasing with gusts to 25-30 knots probable.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR. West-southwest wind gusts to 20 knots
possible Tuesday.

Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions possible especially at night along
with some rain developing (rain/snow possible near KABE/KRDG late
at night).

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters until 9
AM Sunday. Generally expect winds 15-25 with gusts up to 30
knots and seas 4-5 feet. It will remain on the breezy side for
the rest of the day Sunday but the conditions should be just
below Small Craft Advisory levels with winds generally around
15-20 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable.
The conditions should improve Monday night

Tuesday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible.

Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions may start to develop
mostly at night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Gorse