353
FXUS61 KPHI 270843
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
443 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The High wind warning for Atlantic and Cape May Beaches has
been replaced with a Wind Advisory.

Coastal Flood Warning for New Castle and Salem counties was
allowed to expire.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. The nor`easter will continue to retrograde back towards New
Jersey on Sunday before finally slowly departing Monday and into
Tuesday. This will bring periods of additonal rainfall and
strong winds to the region.

2. More Moderate to Minor tidal flooding expected Sunday.
Highest levels water levels will trend less as the storm begins
to weaken later Sunday.

3. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at the Jersey
Shore and Delaware Beaches through Sunday. Additional beach and dune
erosion can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The nor`easter will continue to retrograde back
towards New Jersey on Sunday before finally slowly departing
Monday and into Tuesday. This will bring periods of additonal
rainfall and strong winds to the region.

Broad high pressure remains centered over eastern Canada and extends
back into the Great Lakes. While the high will weaken and lift into
northern portions of the Province of Quebec, it will still be strong
enough to create a tight pressure gradient between it and the low
off the New Jersey coast. An increase in wind gusts is once
again expected this morning.

High Wind Warnings remain in effect for coastal Monmouth and
Ocean counties, but were exchanged for Wind Advisories across
coastal Atlantic and Cape May county, in effect through noon
Sunday. Wind Advisories remain in effect for the rest of the
region. Given that trees still have their leaves, the
combination of these winds and heavy rain will result in downed
trees and also power lines. Property damage cannot be ruled at
the coast where the winds are highest.

With the track closer to the coast, the higher PoPs that were
introduced early this morning will remain in place. PoPs are pretty
much in the 80 to 100 percent range across the whole area Sunday.
Event rainfall totals will be in the 1 to 2 inch range along
the I-95 corridor and points north and west with as much as 3
inches over much of eastern New Jersey. Locally heavier amounts
are possible. This will be over a 48 to 60 hour timeframe, so
widespread freshwater flooding is not anticipated at this time.
That said, the Millstone River at Griggstown is now expected to
crest above flood stage. This is our only forecast point above
flood stage. It goes without saying that and freshwater runoff
will exacerbate the flooding along the coast. It simply will not
be able to drain. We cannot rule out a few embedded
thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...More Moderate to Minor tidal flooding expected Sunday.
Highest levels water levels will trend less as the storm begins
to weaken later Sunday.

A slow moving Nor`easter offshore will remain into Sunday and
begin to weaken. Although this current/most recent high tide will
be/has been the most impactful, we`re not out of the woods yet
along the coast and back bays. Additional flooding will occur
over the next several high tides. There are no changes with the
headlines right now. While widespread major flooding is not
expected going forward, widespread moderate is.

For Delaware Bay communities, north/northeast winds will keep
pushing water to the west side of the Bay and onto the Delaware
coast. This will increase the water levels for those communities.
Moderate Flood levels are forecasted for Cumberland and Salem,
NJ as well as New Castle, DE, so the Warning will remain in
place across these areas.

For the tidal Delaware River, we expect the minor tidal flooding
will take place early Sunday morning. The strong North to
Northeast flow is for the most part keeping the water levels in
check for those areas.

As mentioned above,the north to northeast winds will limit the
tidal flooding threat for the Chesapeake Bay. Some spotty minor
tidal flooding is anticipated at Claiborne around dawn Sunday,
but nothing higher than that at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at
the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through Sunday. Additional
beach and dune erosion can be expected.

A nor`easter is bringing strong north to northeast winds and
high seas for our marine zones. Breaking waves within the surf
zone of 6 to 12 feet will occur through Sunday. Dangerous rip
currents will accompany the high surf, making it extremely
dangerous to enter the water at any time through Sunday. The
high surf and strong winds are resulting in areas of beach
erosion across the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Across
some locales, large breaking waves and run- up are also eroding
dunes.

The High Risk for life threatening rip currents remains in
effect through Sunday for all beaches. A High Surf Advisory is
in effect for all beaches through Sunday as well.

The risk for dangerous rip currents will begin to decrease on
Monday as winds shift offshore and wave heights begin to
decrease. For now have opted for a MODERATE risk for all shore
points.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight (through 12Z)...MVFR gradually overspreading
further north and west this morning, likely covering all
terminals by 12Z. That said, VFR will try to hold on north and
west. Otherwise, gusty wind and periods of rain. Prevailing vis
conditions should remain VFR with periods of MVFR in more
moderate showers, so included a TEMPO group covering that. N
winds 15 to 20 kt with 30 to 35 kt gusts inland and gusts as
high as 40 kt from time to time at KACY. Winds will trend
towards N/NW by dawn. Medium confidence.

Sunday...Widespread MVFR cigs in the morning with continued
waves of showers and gusty wind. Periods of reduced vis in
heavier showers is likely. By early afternoon, ensemble
soundings suggest a push of low-level moisture increasing
probability to 50-60% for IFR cigs from northeast to southwest
with most likely arrival to PHL and surrounding terminals around
15z, though the pessimistic end of the goal posts could sit as
early as ~13z. RDG and ABE lag a bit behind farther inland. A
period of low level wind shear is possible in the mid to late
morning hours as a belt of stronger 925 mb flow spreads inland
on the west side of the low, but forecast soundings all suggest
some depth of a mixed layer at the surface and thus gusts
continuing to 25-30 knots. For that reason, held off on the LLWS
mention for now, but if it appears that we won`t mix quite as
efficiently and surface gusts will be less, LLWS mention may be
needed. W to N winds 15 to 20 kt with 30 to 35 kt gusts.
Low/medium confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Continued MVFR/IFR conditions in lingering SHRA.
Diminishing winds.

Monday through Monday night...Conditions improve to MVFR, then
to VFR late Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Widespread storm force winds can be expected across our offshore
waters with Gales for the nearshore waters and Delaware Bay through
midday Sunday. Winds will quickly diminish below Gale criteria
late afternoon.

Seas will be rough, as high as 8 to 14 ft on the ocean during
this time, diminishing to 6-8 feet late. VSBY restrictions in
rain.

Conditions expected to improve considerably Sunday night. Small
Craft Advisory conditions likely.

Outlook...

Monday-Monday night...Conditions continue to improve. Seas may
remain above advisory levels while winds continue to diminish
below 25 knots.

Tuesday through Thursday...Conditions expected to be below advisory
levels.

Rip Currents...Please see Key Message 3 above.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-
     015>025-027.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     High Wind Warning until noon EDT today for NJZ014-026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     NJZ017>019.
DE...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for DEZ001>004.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DEZ002>004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ430-431-454-455.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>453-485.
     Storm Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ480>483.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJL
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL