297
FXUS61 KPHI 061438
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1038 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly works its way through the region today
through tonight, then one area of low pressure passes north and
west of the region while a coastal low passes east of the region
tonight through Saturday. High pressure briefly builds in from
the north late Saturday through Sunday. Low pressure passing
west of the area pulls a warm front through the region Sunday
night through Monday. A cold front passes through the region
Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few updated this morning with showers moving north across the
Delaware and southern NJ coastal areas. Pops were raised across
these areas into the early afternoon. Overall, most of the area
will be dry for most of the day today, and it will be another
warm and moderately humid day for early June with highs in the
mid and upper 80s and surface dew points in the mid and upper
60s.

Low pressure on that cold front lifts through central Pennsylvania
and central New York starting this afternoon. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will develop over the southern Poconos and Lehigh
Valley during this time. SB CAPE Values will be over 1500 J/kg
along with 20 to 25 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear. The Storm Prediction
Center has a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather today
with damaging winds being the primary threat. In addition, PWATs
will be in excess of 1.5 inches, and heavy rain in the northern
areas could result in localized flooding.

Some showers and scattered thunderstorms may make it down to
the I-95 corridor by this evening, but the front will mostly be
hung up west of the area. Lingering showers and thunderstorms
will impact areas north and west of the I-95 corridor through
tonight. Otherwise, another warm and humid night on tap with low
stratus and patchy fog. Lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather remains on tap for the weekend.

Weak low pressure on the cold front just west of the area
approaches Saturday morning and works its way through the region
during the day Saturday, finally departing in the afternoon.
Showers become likely with scattered thunderstorms across the
region. Cloudy skies and rainfall will knock temperatures down
on Saturday compared to Friday, with highs generally in the
upper 70s to low 80s, yet dew points remain in the upper 60s. SB
CAPE values will be a touch lower on Saturday, generally 1000
to 1500 J/kg, but 0-6 KM Bulk Shear will be a touch higher on
Saturday, generally 25 to 35 kt. The Storm Prediction Center has
a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for Delmarva, central and southern
New Jersey, and most of southeast Pennsylvania for Saturday
with damaging winds being the primary threat.

Showers and thunderstorms taper off late in the day and by
Saturday evening. High pressure noses in from the north, but
there will not be much cooler and drier air associated with it.
Dew points drop into the lower 60s, and lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 60s as well.

The base of high pressure lifts through the region Sunday
morning. Another area of low pressure begins to organize and
develop west of the area, and a warm front will extend out from
that low. This warm front lifts to the north and west through
Delmarva and the Delaware Valley, and then another round of
showers and thunderstorms will develop by Sunday afternoon.
Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather on tap for the first half of the Long Term
period. Low pressure lifts through the region Sunday night
through Monday morning with yet another round of convection.
Conditions briefly dry out Monday afternoon and evening, and
then another cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday,
crossing the area Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect the area during this time,
with likely PoPs (around 70 percent) on Tuesday.

High pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday and
conditions finally dry out through Thursday. Highs will top off
in the 70s to around 80 on Wednesday, and then will be in the
80s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR throughout the terminals. Scattered SHRA possible,
mainly at KRDG/KABE prior to 00Z. Will introduce PROB30 groups
for TSRA at KRDG/KABE starting at 20Z and will keep the rest of
the terminals dry. S to SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence
overall.

Tonight...SHRA with scattered TSRA mostly at KRDG/KABE, but
some SHRA may make it down to the I-95 corridor terminals. Fog
and stratus developing after 06Z or so with MVFR/IFR and
possibly lower conditions. Light S winds. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...Sub-VFR conditions likely in
SHRA/TSRA during the day, then sub-VFR conditions in fog and
stratus possible at night.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR initially Sunday, then sub-
VFR in SHRA/TSRA Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR Monday afternoon, then sub-VFR in
SHRA/TSRA Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today and tonight. South to
southwest winds 10 to 15 kt today become south to southeast
around 10 kt tonight with 3 to 4 ft seas.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...Sub-SCA conditions. VSBY
restrictions in showers and thunderstorms, mostly on Saturday.
Thunderstorms may result in locally higher winds and waves. VSBY
restrictions in fog possible at night.

Sunday through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions. VSBY restrictions
in showers and thunderstorms, mostly late Sunday and Sunday
night. Thunderstorms may result in locally higher winds and
waves.

Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions. VSBY restrictions in showers and
thunderstorms, mostly Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms may result in locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents...

On Friday, winds will be south to southeast around 10 mph.
Swells will be around 1-2 feet with a period of 6-8 seconds. As
a result, breaking waves will be around 1-2 feet. Therefore,
there is a LOW risk for development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents for all beaches on Friday.

On Saturday, the onshore swell increases to 3-5 feet with a
medium 7-9 second period. Additionally, some longer period
waves may be embedded in the swell. Breaking waves in the surf
zone of 2-3 feet are expected as a result. Winds will be around
5-10 mph out of the southwest to west-southwest. Due to the
increasing and potentially multi-period swells, there is a
MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents for all beaches on Saturday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/po
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MPS/po
MARINE...AKL/MPS