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Arctic Transit

 

Week 2 Outlook: Issued August 19, 2016
Valid August 26, 2016

 

Storminess is likely to be centered in the Gulf of Alaska during this time, with only a very slight risk for a weaker storm in the Chukchi Sea, This results in MODERATE to HIGH confidence in the basic pattern for the forecast area.

 

Barrow to Demarcation Point: During August in this region the long term frequency of small craft advisory level winds (23-32kt) is 10 to 15%. Gale force wind frequency (≥33kt)  is less than 5% of the time.
 

August 26: It is increasingly likely that an area high pressure will prevail over the Beaufort Sea during this time. Near-shore there is a 5 to 10% chance of winds 25 kt or higher.