National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

 

Recent Changes: transition to new image generation

 

  • /images/dtx/aviation/D21discussion.jpg

1200 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.AVIATION...

A steady increase in moisture flux off lake Huron in cold northerly
flow will occur again during the early and mid morning hours Tuesday
as a mid level trough pivots across the region. This will lead to
some reduction of ceiling heights with an overall increase in light
shower potential. Forecast maintains a window for Lower VFR to brief
MVFR conditions to materialize once again from FNT southward.
Moderately mixed north-northwest flow offers modest gust potential
Tuesday as lingering moisture lifts into a broader VFR stratocu with
daytime heating.      
      
For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*   Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 ft late tonight and Tuesday
    morning. Low Tuesday afternoon.

TAF Dashboard (AWC)

 

257 FTUS43 KDTX 150828 AAA TAFDTW TAF AMD KDTW 150828Z 1508/1612 34005KT P6SM SCT060 FM151000 35005KT P6SM BKN040 FM151500 34013G20KT P6SM SCT035 BKN050 FM152300 34011KT P6SM SCT060=

pWind

pWind Direction Change

Ensemble Wind Direction Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

 

f01

f02

f03

f04

f05

f06

f07

f08

f09

f10

f11

f12

f13

f14

f15

f16

f17

f18

f24

f27

f30

f33

f36

 

pGust

Ensemble Wind Gust Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

 

f01

f02

f03

f04

f05

f06

f07

f08

f09

f10

f11

f12

f13

f14

f15

f16

f17

f18

f24

f27

f30

f33

f36

 

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Winds

 

 

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

 

f01

f02

f03

f04

f05

f06

f07

f08

f09

f10

f11

f12

f13

f14

f15

f16

f17

f18

f24

f27

f30

f33

f36

 

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Gusts

 

 

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

 

f01

f02

f03

f04

f05

f06

f07

f08

f09

f10

f11

f12

f13

f14

f15

f16

f17

f18

f24

f27

f30

f33

f36

 

Ceiling Guidance at DTW

Visibility Guidance at DTW

 

 

TCF

https://www.aviationweather.gov/tcf

       

pConvection

 

 

 

WCAA Dashboard

 

Hourly Snow Rate at DTW

3 Hourly (centered running total) Snow Rate at DTW

Hourly Snow Density at DTW

 

Hourly Precip Type at DTW

 

6hr Prob Snow

 

For Planning and Situational Awareness Only