D21 Tracon Decision Support

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1228 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across far southern Lower Mi
will attempt to lift northward into metro Detroit overnight amidst a
broad region of low to mid level moisture advection. Model soundings
have some degree of indication in the expansion of an MVFR based
stratus deck during the early morning hours. A more pronounced mid
level short wave is forecast to track from Iowa early this morning
and across Se Mi this afternoon, supporting an increase in coverage
and intensity of afternoon showers and thunderstorms within a deep
moist environment.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Showers and scattered thunderstorms now
approaching metro will affect the region through at least the first
couple hours of the TAF period. There is a potential for more
widespread convection today. While the timing carries some degree of
uncertainty, the most likely time period for a convective response
will be tied to the approach of a mid level short wave, mid
afternoon to early evening.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Saturday.

* Low in thunderstorms this morning. Moderate this afternoon and
evening.

TAF Dashboard (AWC)

653 FTUS43 KDTX 260520 TAFDTW TAF KDTW 260520Z 2606/2712 09004KT P6SM SCT040 BKN100 TEMPO 2606/2608 6SM -TSRA BKN030CB OVC060 FM261000 11004KT 4SM BR BKN022 OVC060 FM261500 21008KT P6SM SCT028 BKN045 OVC150 TEMPO 2618/2622 2SM +TSRA BKN018 OVC040CB FM262200 19005KT P6SM -SHRA SCT040 BKN060 OVC120 FM270200 17005KT P6SM SCT050 OVC100=