D21 Tracon Decision Support

556 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
.AVIATION...

Subtle veering of wind in the cloud bearing layer has caused stratus
to expand across much of the area this morning. Prevailing MVFR
ceiling today, particularly north of Metro Detroit where lake
moisture is most plentiful via low-level southwest flow. A few
flurries possible in this plume but accumulating snow is not
anticipated during the day. Model soundings show occasional lapses
in low-level saturation for the Detroit terminals, so fluctuations
to VFR may be possible at times. A clipper system is on track to
move into the area from the Midwest this evening, bringing
widespread light snowfall to all terminals into tonight. A strong
arctic front follows this system Monday morning with snow/cloud
character shifting to more localized lake effect streamers through
Monday.

For DTW...Intervals between MVFR and VFR are most likely through the
morning and early afternoon. Light snowfall favored to start around
00Z this evening and begin to taper off around 07Z. Snow showers
then become more prevalent Monday morning with the arctic front
passing through around 12Z, shifting wind to the west with gusts
quickly ramping up to 30 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the day. High tonight.

* Medium to exceed crosswind thresholds Monday morning.

TAF Dashboard (AWC)

196 FTUS43 KDTX 181457 AAB TAFDTW TAF AMD KDTW 181457Z 1815/1918 23014KT P6SM -SHSN BKN016 OVC030 TEMPO 1815/1816 2SM -SHSN OVC016 FM182000 22013G21KT P6SM OVC020 FM190100 22009KT 5SM -SN OVC012 FM190300 22008KT 2SM -SN OVC010 FM190800 23013KT 4SM -SHSN BKN010 OVC020 FM191300 27020G30KT 6SM -SHSN BKN025 OVC050=

pWind

pWind Direction Change

Ensemble Wind Direction Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

pGust

Ensemble Wind Gust Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Winds

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Gusts

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

TCF

https://www.aviationweather.gov/tcf

pConvection

WCAA Dashboard

Hourly Snow Rate at DTW	3 Hourly (centered running total) Snow Rate at DTW

Hourly Snow Density at DTW

Hourly Precip Type at DTW

6hr Prob Snow