D21 Tracon Decision Support

104 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.AVIATION...

Plume of low cloud has developed downwind of moist northeast flow
off of Lake Huron. Waning moisture flux and entrainment of drier
boundary layer air leads to these clouds scattering out to support
VFR conditions by late this afternoon. More impactful weather
arrives Friday morning as low pressure tracks across the Ohio
Valley. Moisture increases early Friday morning, with top-down
saturation lowering the cloud deck until freezing rain begins around
12-13z Friday morning. There is high confidence in all freezing rain
south of MBS, while MBS could see sleet/snow mix in at times due to
colder temperatures. Total ice accumulations generally range from
0.1" to 0.2" by Friday afternoon, but will be highly sensitive to
surface temperatures. Winds veer from northeast this afternoon to
the southeast by Friday morning, increasing to 10-13 knots as the
low gains influence. Gusts around 20 knots will be possible Friday
morning.

For DTW...There is high confidence in freezing rain Friday morning-
early afternoon. Freezing rain is expected to begin around 12-13z
and continue through 18z before tapering off through the mid-
afternoon. Ice accumulations between 0.1" to 0.2" will be possible,
but there is potential for temperatures to climb to or above 32
degrees late morning which could reduce these amounts.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less by late morning and through
   the afternoon. Low tonight.
   
* High for freezing rain Friday morning through mid-afternoon.

TAF Dashboard (AWC)

458 FTUS43 KDTX 252338 TAFDTW TAF KDTW 252338Z 2600/2706 07010KT P6SM BKN200 FM260800 12010KT P6SM OVC070 FM261300 12010G18KT 5SM -FZRA OVC020 FM261800 06007KT 6SM -FZDZ OVC015 FM262100 36005KT P6SM OVC015=

pWind

pWind Direction Change

Ensemble Wind Direction Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

pGust

Ensemble Wind Gust Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Winds

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Gusts

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

TCF

https://www.aviationweather.gov/tcf

pConvection

WCAA Dashboard

Hourly Snow Rate at DTW	3 Hourly (centered running total) Snow Rate at DTW

Hourly Snow Density at DTW

Hourly Precip Type at DTW

6hr Prob Snow