D21 Tracon Decision Support

705 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.AVIATION...

Dry and colder air in the low levels off northern Ontario high
pressure has effectively displaced MVFR clouds from SE Mi this
evening. Earlier NE wind in the 10 to 20 kt range did most of the
work and remains steady around 10 knots tonight to further reinforce
cold and dry air across the region. This sets the stage for freezing
rain arrival shortly after sunrise with similar onset timing along
the terminal corridor. A rapid drop from VFR into low end MVFR
ceiling and visibility occur as precipitation intensity increases
during the morning. A mix of freezing rain and sleet is more likely
toward MBS, greater intensity freezing rain from FNT to PTK, and a
lighter intensity toward DTW. All areas see icing of at least 0.1"
with higher totals to around 0.2" beginning to show focus from PTK
to FNT until the pattern exits around mid Friday afternoon.

For DTW... Confidence remains high in freezing rain Friday morning
to early afternoon. Freezing rain is expected to begin around 12-13z
and continue through 18z before tapering off through the mid-
afternoon. Ice accumulations between 0.1" to 0.2" are possible, but
with potential for temperatures to climb slightly above 32 degrees
by late morning which could reduce these amounts.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less Friday.   
   
* High for freezing rain Friday morning through mid-afternoon.

TAF Dashboard (AWC)

458 FTUS43 KDTX 252338 TAFDTW TAF KDTW 252338Z 2600/2706 07010KT P6SM BKN200 FM260800 12010KT P6SM OVC070 FM261300 12010G18KT 5SM -FZRA OVC020 FM261800 06007KT 6SM -FZDZ OVC015 FM262100 36005KT P6SM OVC015=

pWind

pWind Direction Change

Ensemble Wind Direction Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

pGust

Ensemble Wind Gust Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Winds

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Gusts

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

TCF

https://www.aviationweather.gov/tcf

pConvection

WCAA Dashboard

Hourly Snow Rate at DTW	3 Hourly (centered running total) Snow Rate at DTW

Hourly Snow Density at DTW

Hourly Precip Type at DTW

6hr Prob Snow