D21 Tracon Decision Support

740 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
.AVIATION...

A broken line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms in
advance of an approaching cold front finishes working across the
terminal corridor over the next 1-2hrs. Obs post front have shown
pockets high IFR ceilings in the immediate wake of the front with
more uniform MVFR trailing behind. May need to make amendments if
west MI obs show wider spread IFR but for now will run with a steady
lowering ceiling towards low MVFR tonight. Winds shift to the west
post-front and eventually to the northwest latter half of Friday
with the arrival of a secondary cold front though are expected to
hold under 15kts. Some improvement to cig heights come Friday
morning as diurnal mixing develops though more significant
improvements hold off until the afternoon period following the
second front. Still a slight chance to see a passing shower near the
Detroit terminals Friday late morning-afternoon as a disturbance
slides along the Ohio state border so have maintained inherited
Prob30 with tweaks to timing window.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Broken line of showers with isolated
embedded thunder cross the airport within the first 2 hours of the
new forecast period. Gusts with this activity has been 35mph or less
and this expected to continue to hold true as it crosses. Ceilings
lower through the night post cold front with MVFR favored into
Friday morning. Slight chance (~20%) to see a shower around midday
Friday with even lower potential to have thunder with it.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight through Friday
   morning, medium by Friday afternoon.

* Medium (around 40%) for thunder until 02z this evening.

TAF Dashboard (AWC)

345 FTUS43 KDTX 020101 AAA TAFDTW TAF AMD KDTW 020101Z 0201/0306 20012KT P6SM BKN045 FM020300 22012KT P6SM OVC035 FM020500 23012KT P6SM OVC025 FM021200 24005KT P6SM OVC015 FM021500 26013KT P6SM OVC025 PROB30 0215/0218 P6SM -SHRA OVC015 FM021800 29008KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060=

pWind

pWind Direction Change

Ensemble Wind Direction Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

pGust

Ensemble Wind Gust Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Winds

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Gusts

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

TCF

https://www.aviationweather.gov/tcf

pConvection

WCAA Dashboard

Hourly Snow Rate at DTW	3 Hourly (centered running total) Snow Rate at DTW

Hourly Snow Density at DTW

Hourly Precip Type at DTW

6hr Prob Snow