D21 Tracon Decision Support

559 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
.AVIATION...

Southeast MI remains under the influence of upper ridging through
the daylight period which promotes prevailing VFR. The gradient in
place gradually increases, resulting in an uptick in southeast wind
magnitude this afternoon with gusts on the order of 25 kt at times.
A surge of low- and mid-level moisture arrives along a warm front
late this evening into the overnight period, with scattered to
numerous showers likely with embedded thunderstorms possible.
Instability will be remain low, so a weakening trend is expected
with this convection. Low-level wind shear may be a concern
overnight as a 50 kt LLJ passes through the 1-2 kft layer, but near-
surface wind is currently expected to remain sufficiently gusty to
mitigate widespread LLWS. Mid-level ceilings develop this afternoon
and trend toward MVFR early Tuesday morning.

D21/DTW Convection...Several windows for upstream convection to
approach the area, currently centered on 22 to 02z and 04 to 07z.
Instability will be a limiting factor locally and convection is
expected to exhibit a weakening trend with eastward progression.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for thunderstorms tonight.

* Moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet after midnight, high Tuesday
   morning.

TAF Dashboard (AWC)

651 FTUS43 KDTX 271120 TAFDTW TAF KDTW 271120Z 2712/2818 12010KT P6SM SCT150 BKN250 FM271700 13014G24KT P6SM BKN200 FM280300 17012G22KT P6SM -SHRA SCT045 OVC080 PROB30 2804/2807 4SM -TSRA BKN030CB OVC060 FM280800 19014G23KT P6SM -SHRA BKN020 OVC030 FM281500 26015G24KT P6SM SCT025 BKN035=

pWind

pWind Direction Change

Ensemble Wind Direction Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

pGust

Ensemble Wind Gust Distribution

Forecast hourly 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Winds

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

DTW Flow Probabilities based on Ensemble Gusts

Forecast hour to 18 hours - 3 hourly to 36 hours ... Updated Hourly

TCF

https://www.aviationweather.gov/tcf

pConvection

WCAA Dashboard

Hourly Snow Rate at DTW	3 Hourly (centered running total) Snow Rate at DTW

Hourly Snow Density at DTW

Hourly Precip Type at DTW

6hr Prob Snow