Expert Forecast Opinion

792
FXUS63 KDTX 061354
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
854 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few snow squalls are possible between Noon and 5pm with the
passage of an arctic cold front. Northwest winds ramp up and gust 30-
40 MPH with the front through early tonight. Temperatures reaching
the lower to mid 30s early this afternoon will plummet through the
evening and night, bottoming out in the -5 to +5 F range by early
Saturday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of southeastern
Michigan late this evening through Saturday morning as wind chills
fall to 15 to 20 degrees below zero.

- Above normal temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday of
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Area of widespread light to moderate snow should end pretty much on
schedule around 15-17Z late this morning with only scattered showers
expected in it`s wake for the next few hours. Attention turns toward
the arctic front that will slide southward this afternoon from about
18Z (MBS) to 21Z (DTW). 850mb temps are slated to drop from -8C to -17C
from 18Z to 00Z respectively with the strong cold advection behind the
front. Hires suite still advertising a narrow band of broken snow
showers with the steep low level lapse rates that will develop up to
5kft with decent saturation in the 2-5kft layer. With the strong wind
field that will accompany the front, northwest winds pushing 40
knots below 5kft, there will be a chance of squalls with any stronger
shower that develops. Should be a brief duration for any one
location with the speed at which the band will be moving, mainly less
than 1 hour, but we could get a quick half inch to an inch with
these stronger cells. Then the cold air rushes in with the Cold
Weather Advisory already in effect for tonight into Saturday morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 535 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

AVIATION...

After some intervals of light freezing drizzle/mist, moisture depth
is increasing which is allowing a change back over to snow. This
moisture increase and region of light snow is associated with a short
wave impulse moving across the region this morning. Ample low level
moisture will support IFR and LIFR conditions this morning, a
combination of falling snow and fog. Subtle low level drying forecast
early this afternoon will trend conditions toward MVFR. An arctic
cold front is forecast to move across Se Mi this afternoon, between
18Z and 21Z. Brief higher intensity snow showers are possibly ahead
of this front. The onset of cold air within strengthening northwest
winds will support frequent gusts over 30 knots at the terminals late
this afternoon into the evening.

For DTW...The transition from freezing drizzle/mist to snow will
occur prior to the start of the TAF period as deeper moisture is now
advancing toward the airport. Light snow will then prevail through
the morning with around an inch accumulation possible. Northwest
wind speeds will steadily increase between 20Z and 23Z in the wake
of an arctic cold front.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today. Low tonight.

* Moderate for crosswind thresholds to be exceeded this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

DISCUSSION...

Continuing weak vorticity advection within broader mid-upper
troughing across the Great Lakes has provided just enough lift to
capitalize on lingering low level saturation below the DGZ to
support scattered freezing drizzle/mist overnight into early this
morning. The primary shortwave coming out of the upper Midwest
drives southeast across the southern Lake Michigan basin into the
Ohio Valley between roughly 10-16Z this morning. Models are still
holding firm in this track to our southwest keeping the bulk of
heavier snow likewise to our west and south during the morning
commute timeframe. That said, SE MI will reside under the broader
albeit weaker isentropic ascent as the trough axis pivots overhead
supporting widespread light snow over most the area. Given the track
of the wave, areas south of I-96 stand the best shot at seeing some
pockets of more moderate snowfall rates (around 0.25"/hr). Overall,
most areas stand likely to pick up around an inch of snowfall by the
end of the morning. Locales south of I-96, particularly towards
Lenawee county, could see up to 1.5-2" dependent on the arrival of
quarter inch rates. Switching over to temperatures, modest warm
advection in southwest flow this morning allows temps to make a run
for lower to mid 30s by midday marking the first time since mid
January with highs above 30.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of the shortwave over southern OH
by this point offers a break in snow early this afternoon before the
arrival of the trailing arctic front between roughly 17-22Z.
Forecast soundings generate weak instability along the shallow
frontal circulation supportive of at least scattered snow showers
with fropa. High-res model solutions however diverge on overall
coverage ranging from a somewhat broken line (HRRR) to widely
scattered (ARW)- owing to shallow saturation depths only up to
~4kft, which are marginally saturated at that. For now, will hold
with chance PoPs (30-40%) and accumulations from a dusting to couple
tenths. Despite the shallow convective depths, weak instability
combined with a healthy column wind field of 35-50kts in the lowest
5kft do support some potential for an isolated snow squall or two
with modeled snow squall parameters around to just over 1. If any
squall does manage to develop, it would be capable of a quick half
inch or so of new snow (lack of residence time as the front quickly
crosses limits higher accumulation chances).

Strong cold air advection follows the arctic front as mixing of
lower level column winds will be capable of generating gusts on the
order of 30-40mph late afternoon-evening into the first half of
tonight. Temperatures plummet behind the front from 30s early this
afternoon to single digits by late evening-early tonight. Coldest
air settles over the Thumb, due to the core of the arctic airmass
sinking over eastern Ontario, with negative single digit lows
forecast. Rest of SE MI sees lows at 0 to low positive single
digits. While winds weaken from the peak this evening, sustained 10-
15mph northwest winds with peak gusts up to 25mph result in wind
chills ranging from -10 to -20, coldest in the Thumb. As such, all
of SE MI is under a Cold Weather Advisory from late evening through
Saturday morning.

Upper troughing begins to slide out over the eastern seaboard by
late Sunday with weakening central CONUS ridging attempting to build
in its place first half of next work week. This is expected to lead
to a steady moderation in temperatures through midweek back to near
normal for early February including a shot at above average highs by
Tuesday.

MARINE...

A Gale Warning and Heavy Freezing Spray Warning are in effect this
afternoon through early Saturday morning. The Gale Warning has been
expanded to include all of Lake Huron and Outer Saginaw Bay as
strong cold advection leads to northwest gale force gusts beginning
this afternoon. Both ice cover and post-frontal subsidence still
work to reduce mixing depths quickly in these areas, but given the
magnitude of the cold advection and low level jet, thinking gales
may linger past the 3 hour duration mark. General sentiment of the
warning stays the same, with gusts peaking this afternoon and
evening around 35 to 40 knots. For ice-free portions of the lake,
sustained northwest winds of 30 to 35 knots and the arctic inbound
airmass lead to heavy freezing spray. On top of this, periods of
snow are likely throughout the day as the governing Hudson Bay low
sends several disturbances across the Great Lakes. A much drier
airmass floods into the region early Saturday morning, paired with
building surface pressure to support quieter conditions for the
weekend. That said, snow chances return Sunday as a clipper system
glances across the Great Lakes.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday
for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday
for MIZ075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for
LHZ361.

Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for
LHZ362-363-421-441>443-462>464.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Saturday for LHZ362-363-462.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......MV


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