Expert Forecast Opinion

000
FXUS63 KDTX 261000
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
600 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022


.AVIATION...

Additional shower activity clears the terminals this morning ahead
of an approaching cold front. This front clears the area before
sufficient instability can arise from daytime heating which yields a
dry afternoon period and improving ceilings. Still some uncertainty
with duration/persistence of borderline MVFR ceilings given weak low-
level moisture surge and lowering stratocumulus bases mid-morning.
Deepening afternoon mixing lifts and scatters cloud bases by mid
afternoon with strengthening gustiness. Mainly clear overnight with
perhaps some high cloud in the post-frontal wake and high pressure
building into the region. Modest gradient holds tonight with wind
orienting from 290.

For DTW...A few additional showers possible this morning with no
visibility restrictions expected. Still an outside chance of brief
MVFR, but recent ceiling trends have exhibited slower descent.
Narrow window this evening for gusts from 290 to reach 26 knots
which would marginally impact crosswind factor.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceiling at or below 5000 ft this morning.

* Low for reaching crosswind threshold.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

DISCUSSION...

Shower activity overnight has occurred within the initial deep
moisture transport along the lead edge of a 312-324Ke moisture axis.
Time window for more widespread coverage is very short with
definitive edge for midlevel dry air/subsidence above 600mb already
impinging on the area by 09Z. Some lingering iso-sct squatty depth
elevated convective showers will exist through 12-15Z as low level
thetae max/wave crests across far southern Lower Michigan. This
forcing has been responsible for the elevated shower and weak
thunderstorm activity now near the South Bend area. After 15Z, high
confidence strong signal for active subsidence lowering down into
the 3.0 to 9.0 kft agl layer. This will effectively end
precipitation potential for the remainder of the day despite the
surface extension of cold front tracking through MBS around 18Z,
northwestern Metro Detroit around 21Z and through the remainder of
the cwa by 00Z this evening. Note, SPC does not include Southeast
Michigan in General Thunderstorm designation. May raise highs a
degree or two as deeper mixing this afternoon/lowering dewpoints
should allow temperatures to warm compressionally right in advance
of the cold front.

A comfortable stretch of summer weather Monday and Tuesday with warm
daytime temperatures giving way to cool nighttime conditions. A low
humidity air mass with dewpoints in the 40s will allow for the swing
in temperatures. Monday temperatures will be slightly below normal,
while readings Tuesday will be right at normal.

A progessive upper level jet packet and secondary internal trough
will allow a Canadian cold front to advance into the central Great
Lakes late Tuesday and Wednesday. Still some question about timing,
but the loose consensus is for late Tuesday night. Right now, there
appears to be a lack of midlevel lapse rates and given the nocturnal
timing any chance for organized thunderstorm activity appears low
attm.

Rising heights and broad ridging over the Great Lakes region is
expected to result in well above normal temperatures Thursday and
Friday.

MARINE...

Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Said front clears the
region by early this evening allowing a cooler airmass to settle
over the central Great Lakes. Reduced thermal stability from this
airmass allows stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface,
particularly tonight. Strongest gusts of around 25kts expected over
the open waters of Huron. Wind direction could lead to rougher
waters around the tip of the Thumb however current thinking is
winds/waves hold below small craft advisory criteria. Pressure
gradient over the region gradually relaxes over the course of Monday
as the parent low moves into Quebec resulting in a slow but steady
decrease in wind strength.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......KDK


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