Expert Forecast Opinion

907
FXUS63 KDTX 241151
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
651 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today but still slightly above average.

- Light rain showers/drizzle will be possible tonight mainly south
of M-59. Some freezing drizzle possible in the higher terrain of
Oakland, Washtenaw, and Lenawee. Little to no ice accumulation.

- Wintry mix likely Friday with increasing potential for widespread
freezing rain over much of SE MI. Ice accumulations of a tenth or
two favored though some locales could approach a quarter inch. An
inch of two of snow possible in the northernmost portions of the
Thumb/Saginaw Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...

Patchy fog hangs near the area. VSBYs look to stay VFR, but cannot
rule out a brief drop to MVFR before sunrise ends any VSBY
restrictions. Higher coverage of low clouds has struggled to persist
further south into the terminal corridor early this morning, so will
lean towards VFR to start the TAF period this morning. VFR skies
look to prevail through the remainder of the day with higher
coverage of mid and high clouds arriving ahead of a low pressure
system across the Ohio Valley tonight. Low chances for light
rain/drizzle to occur and even lower chance for a brief period of
freezing drizzle with this system. With rain favored, will just hold
a PROB30 tonight for -SHRA/BR. Predominately VFR ceilings look to
prevail tonight, but a drop to MVFR is possible with the
precipitation. Light winds turn southerly this afternoon and then
veer towards the northwest late tonight will remaining at or below 10
knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling 5000 feet or less this morning. Moderate late
tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

DISCUSSION...

A seasonable day in store for SE MI today as highs top out a few
degrees above normal in the mid-upper 30s with high pressure passing
overhead. Influence of said high wanes by evening as a weak
shortwave rotates out of the upper midwest into the SW Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley late evening-tonight. Main accompanying moisture
plume and ascent occur southwest of the region, however areas mainly
south of M-59 see just enough saturation to support drizzle
development after roughly 8pm continuing through 3-5am. Temperatures
during this window are forecast to range 31-36 with the potential 31-
32 temps holding over areas along/north of M-59 as well as along the
higher terrain of the glacial moraine from the Irish Hills up
through northern Oakland. In these areas, a window of light freezing
drizzle is possible though given overall QPF very much on the lean
side (only a few hundreths at most) no measurable ice accums
expected.

Cold advection follows to start Christmas as high pressure sliding
over northern Ontario sends a backdoor cold front across Lake Huron
into SE MI. Southern areas (south of M-59) stand the best chance to
see temps reach the lower 40s before falling below freezing in the
evening. Northern areas are held in the lower to mid 30s given the
earlier frontal passage. This colder air however sets the stage for
more impactful weather with the next system arriving early Friday.
Developing low pressure over the Midwest lifts a warm front toward
southern lower MI with the elevated portions of the frontal slope
arriving around 10-12Z. There remains good agreement across the
model space that surface/near-surface temperatures will range from
mid 20s to around 30 fed by persistent east-southeast flow at the
base of the aforementioned northern Ontario high. Forecast soundings
advertise +2-7C warm layer from roughly 3-9kft over the vast
majority of SE MI, save for the far northern CWA (roughly north of M-
46) who`s columns hold near or just below 0C. With the surface low
track holding south across northern IN/OH and cool ESE flow blunting
northward progression of the front, the trend has been for the
surface warm front to fail to push further north of I-94 if not
stalling over Lenawee-Monroe keeping temperatures for all areas
north around or below 32 all day. Result is a very favorable setup
for prolonged freezing rain for most of the area.

Areas of particular sensitivity and lower confidence in p-type at
this time are the northern Thumb/Saginaw Valley who are looking to
reside on the fringe of the elevated warm frontal slope. If warm
advection is more robust (resulting from a more northerly frontal
advance), more wintry mix (freezing rain-sleet) are favored vs a
weaker push of elevated warm advection favoring more snow or snow-
sleet. In a similar vein, these scenarios would likely impact the p-
type over the southern third of the CWA with a stronger warm push
favoring a transition to (liquid) rain vs staying freezing rain.

Anomalously moist airmass is drawn north by the low with the
CMCE/GEFS/EPS all showing PW between 0.6-0.9", solidly above the
90th percentile for daily climo, with ensemble mean QPF ranging
between 0.25-0.4". Currently, ice accumulations between 0.1-0.2" are
most favored over the majority of the CWA, however should the colder
trend hold (ie surface front fails to lift into SE MI) there is
potential for some areas to exceed 0.25". Potential snow
accumulations in the far northern portions of the CWA range 0.5-2"
in the current forecast scenario. Given this forecast with sub-
warning totals and lower confidence in higher end amounts (at this
time), held off on any watch headlines with this forecast package.

Precipitation winds down during the evening Friday as low pressure
advances across the central Appalachians. Low amplitude mid-level
ridging fills in its place for Saturday bringing drier weather and
modestly above average temperatures. Active pattern looks to
continue to close out the weekend/start the new week as an energetic
northern stream jet allows Pacific northwest shortwave(s) to track
into the central CONUS/Great Lakes.

MARINE...

A high pressure system will quickly move across the Great Lakes this
morning and afternoon before washing out across the western Atlantic
tonight. Influence of this high pressure will rapidly diminish wind
speeds and gust potential through the morning and will maintain
lighter winds through the day. A second high pressure system will
then progress across the central Canadian Provinces, arriving over
the James Bay by tomorrow evening. Wind direction will progress from
northeast to southeast with the arrival of high pressure which will
bring elevated wave heights along the Lake Huron shoreline. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed through Thursday and Friday given
favorable fetch increasing wave heights within the nearshore areas.
The shift to east flow will also bring some stronger gusts with wind
gusts ranging between 20 to 30 knots across Lake Huron.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ421-441-
442.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......AM


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