Expert Forecast Opinion

221
FXUS63 KDTX 170345
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1045 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for scattered snow showers tonight and overnight, most
favorable through the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Continued chance for
flurries to light snow through Saturday.

- Progressively colder each day through the weekend, with frigid and
blustery conditions Monday through Wednesday. Wind chills to or
below 0 degrees Monday morning through Wednesday morning.

- Dangerously cold wind chills near -15F will be possible Tuesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

A bout of warm advection ahead of the approaching cold front has
allowed temperatures over much of Southeast Michigan to climb up to
and in some cases just over the freezing mark. There has also been
an increase in moisture or thetae that has resulted in a relatively
high number of UP or -RA observations upstream. Did include a TEMPO
for a -fzdzsn mix. A low confidence forecast for timing and duration
of any snow shower activity as cold cyclonic flow will remain in
place. Upper level height and kinematic fields suggest southwest
orientated jet axis will remain immediately to the southeast of the
terminal sites which will effectively guide various shortwave maxima
directly across the state throughout the 24 hour period. There is
some signal that higher midlevel saturation will push out of
portions of IL and IN late tonight and stream across the Detroit
terminals. It is possible that saturation will be enough to allow
for some snow shower between 11-15z. Breezy southwest flow Saturday
with a better chance for prevailing light snow showers Saturday
afternoon and KFNT and KMBS.

For DTW...Included a tempo for -fzdzsn between 6-9z tonight as
upstream radar supports moisture advection ahead of an approaching
cold front. Then, there is model support for a prevailing light snow
11-15z Saturday along the cold front.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft through the forecast.

* High for precipitation type of snow tonight.

* Medium for some freezing drizzle to mix in with the snow.

* Low confidence in visibility restrictions to 1/2sm in falling
snow tonight or Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1011 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

UPDATE...

With a fairly high number of surface observations reporting UP or -RA
over the northern cwa and upstream across portions of western Lower
Michigan decided to include a chance of freezing drizzle tonight.
Traffic data suggests some slow going across portions of Midland
County and with cold ground/surface temperatures this could be some
impact from the freezing drizzle. No significant impacts are
expected as precipitation type should favor snow.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

DISCUSSION...

At present, the better coverage of light snow now resides in the
Thumb through Port Huron area as an upper-level wave vacates the
Great Lakes. Some lingering coverage is also observed through the
Tri-Cities closer to where the occluded low pressure system resides.

For the remainder of the evening and into the early morning hours...
Advent of dry air through the low-levels will reduce the integrity
of moisture quality through the dgz up from the border to around the
M59 corridor, bringing the very low-end chance for patchy freezing
drizzle. The moisture depths from the surface to 5kft are poor and do
not support a robust fz dz signal, thus confidence remains low for
materialization.

Overnight through the late morning hours, a trough of arctic air
will descend through the Plains late tonight, accelerating ahead of
a strong arctic high, which will start to wrap into the Great Lakes
as the aforementioned low pressure system gradually weakens and
exits into Canada. The favorable west flow and enhancement of lake
moisture advection from the initial edge of cold air advection will
increase snow shower chances overnight for all of SE MI. The better
coverage will reside M59 north and increasingly so across the Tri-
Cities noting the more favorable ssw flow and thus alignment of
better lake moisture in conjunction some enhanced lift along the
leading edge of the cold air. A very transient band of elevated snow
rates will be possible with this feature, leading to variable
accumulations of a dusting up to an inch. For the remainder of the
day, flurries to light snow showers remain possible as westerly flow
holds steady. 0-1km lapse rates remain sufficient to sustain minor
accumulation potential, again hedging the northern half of the cwa
as most favorable for some better snow rates, where stronger
troughing resides. But overall this setup affords continuing chances
to grind out light snow and minor accumulations through the day.

Throughout Sunday, winds back to the southwest, briefly ending lake
effect snow chances. This will be short-lived as cold air settles
over the Great Lakes. Amplification of the upper-level trough
commences early next week with an even stronger push of arctic air
extending well into the Great Lakes, bringing the start of what will
be an extended window of below normal temperatures an active
conditions from both lake effect and potential clipper systems. The
leading edge of the arctic air early Monday brings likely lake
effect snow chances along with the possibility for snow squalls
under the backdrop of multiple upper-level waves and continued cold
air advection. Highs in the 20s Sunday drop into the low teens
Monday morning with wind chills in the negative single digits as
mixing depths increase. Very cold Monday as the apex of the trough
arrives Monday evening where projected 850mb temperatures drop aob -
20C and 500mb temperatures aob -40C. Highs remain capped in the
teens with wind gusts on the order of 30-40 mph maintaining wind
chills in the negative single digits. Overnight lows near zero bring
wind chills in the negative teens Tuesday morning with highs again
in the teens Tuesday. Some potential for a slight warm up into the
midweek, however, temperatures are projected to remain below normal
through the forecast period.

MARINE...

Low pressure drifts eastward across The Straits tonight causing
southerly winds to veer toward the southwest. This leads to
heightened waves across portions of the southern Lake Huron
nearshores, thus a short duration Small Craft Advisory was issued. A
constricted pressure gradient develops Saturday afternoon given the
slow departure of low pressure and inbound high pressure. This
yields sustained winds between 20 and 25 knots. Additional Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed for high waves and gusts
approaching 30 knots. Weak troughing competes with high pressure on
Sunday to keep winds and waves elevated. A large and deepening low
pressure system races through Sunday night into Monday offering the
next opportunity for gusts to gales amidst a strong surge of arctic
air. Freezing spray issues are also expected during this very cold
and wind period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK


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