Expert Forecast Opinion

865
FXUS63 KDTX 072358
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
758 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm tomorrow with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop Thursday afternoon
and Thursday night. High humidity will bring a threat for locally
heavy rainfall with any storm.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions return this weekend.

- A heat wave is possible next week (3 consecutive days of 90+
degrees).

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure maintains quiet aviation conditions this evening with
a few scattered mid clouds lingering across the area and light
winds. Main item for tonight will be the potential for patchy ground
fog development as low level moisture lingers across east and south
portions of the forecast area. Data continues to suggest a few hours
of MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions prior to sunrise. Any visibility
will begin to lift as daytime mixing develops. Expecting VFR
conditions to prevail afterwards through the bulk of the day.
Scattered showers will be possible near the end of this TAF period
towards MBS.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast today or
tonight.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for visibility 1/2SM or less and ceilings 200 feet or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge and drier air held strong over Lower Michigan most of
the day, but the eastern half of the CWA finally saw some SCT-BKN CU
development this afternoon as surface dew pts pushed into the 60s.
Very dry mid levels (12z DTX 700 MB dew pt depression checked in at
36 C) will preclude any shower/thunderstorm activity.

Upper level energy/jet forcing tracking through the Great Basin,
northeast through the northern Rockies and into northern Ontario
tonight. Multiple shortwaves are present, but the main 850-700 MB
Theta-E ridge and moisture axis (PW values 1.75-2 inches) will
remain around the Straights through the day on Wednesday. The last
vestiges of 850-700 MB Theta-E trough will hold over southeast
Michigan to provide another dry and warm day as temps push into the
upper 80s.

The cold front/moisture axis will sag south Wednesday evening into
Thursday, providing the focus for showers and thunderstorms. A
stronger shortwave tracking through Iowa will likely slow the
southward progression of the cold front over southern Lower
Michigan, which could allow for repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night- even potentially into
Friday if the stronger Canadian model is to believed. As usual, the
12z NAM most aggressive with instability building during Thursday,
with MLcapes reaching 2000+ J/kg, along with just enough 0-6 bulk
shear of 30-35 knots to draw concern for severe storms. However,
other models are more subdued. With weak mid level lapse rates and
weaker wind fields, we would expect mostly strong, sub-severe
thunderstorms, though isolated, precip loaded marginal severe
downbursts are possible given the higher DCAPE values indicated.
With good moisture (PW values around 1.75"/700 MB dew pts in excess
of 2 C), heavy rain and localized flooding are a concern with
repeated rounds of storms. But right now, no clear signal indicated,
as euro ensembles struggle to even support qpf aoa 0.5" in a 24 hour
period.

A building upper level ridge over the Northern Plains during the
weekend will be the main weather story, with this heat dome pushing
into the Upper Mississippi River Valley/Western Great Lakes early
next week. Another heat wave is possible next week for southeast
Michigan, but the exact strength and location of ridge center will
have to be worked out, as we could end up on the outer fringe and be
susceptible to the ridge riders diving southeast from Central
Canada.

MARINE...

High pressure continues to sit atop the Great Lakes today into
Wednesday, allowing light winds and dry conditions to persist. A
front will bring rain and the possibility for a thunderstorm
Thursday into Friday. This will also provide the best chance for
slightly breezy conditions with gusts around 20 knots. As this front
moves out of our region Friday, we see another high pressure
entering the region into the weekend, providing calmer and drier
conditions.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......TO/AM


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