Expert Forecast Opinion

025
FXUS63 KDTX 041756
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1256 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers increase coverage late tonight and continue Thursday.
Elevated thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon-evening.

- Temperatures in the 50s today warm well into the 60s by Saturday.
Expect colder readings near the Huron and Erie shorelines.

- Showers become likely again Friday and Saturday with a chance of
thunderstorms as a cold front moves across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...

A quick moving high pressure system and sunshine has worked to erode
and scour out fog and low clouds across most of the Metro terminals.
The exception is across KDET, which has the closest proximity to the
marine layer off of Lake Erie. Latest satellite observations hold
the difference between low stratus and clear skies right along the
edge of the terminal. Latest thinking is that continued daytime
heating will work to erode the stratus layer, however, there is a
chance that stratus ends up holding right along the terminal give
east-southeast flow.

Arrival of a low pressure system will then push a warm frontal
boundary around southern Michigan which will advect low-level
moisture through the state overnight. The extensive IFR-LIFR stratus
now across the Ohio Valley will push through Michigan through at
least KPTK and likely well into KFNT. Drizzle will be likely given
good saturation in the low-levels. Lower certainty regarding cigs
reaching IFR/LIFR into KMBS, but confidence is higher that MVFR
cigs/vis reach that far north by the mid to late morning hours.

For DTW...Expensive region of IFR/LIFR stratus across the Ohio
Valley is expected to fill back in overnight. There is a low chance
for earlier arrival after sunset given east flow advecting Lake Erie
moisture inland.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft late tonight and
overnight.

* Low for ceilings and visibilities below 200 ft and 1/2SM in fog
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

DISCUSSION...

Patchy fog is observed this morning across much of SE Michigan, with
a more localized area of dense fog observed from Monroe to St Clair
County owing to inland expansion of the marine layer. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect through 10 AM as a result. Main question is
how long this fog layer will persist, especially as winds veer to an
easterly/onshore direction this morning. Current thinking is that
the dry airmass aloft and March sun angle will support enough
diurnal mixing to at least lift this fog to a low stratus deck near
the shoreline mid-morning, and eroding completely further inland.
Low stratus presence will have a major impact on high temperatures
today, with highs ranging from low 50s inland to as low as 40
degrees under the cloud deck.

Synoptic moisture stalls over the Ohio Valley today as SE Michigan
stays locked into a stagnant deformation pattern, supporting dry
conditions. By this afternoon, the governing Ontario high breaks
down and flow above the inversion fully shifts to the southwest. As
a result, the Ohio Valley theta-e plume releases north tonight to
bring low stratus/fog, and light rain/drizzle into SE Michigan that
persists through Thursday morning. Forcing for this lead wave of
showers is primarily driven by the release of the elevated warm
front. A second surge in moisture and forcing arrives Thursday
afternoon as a compact vort max barrels across southern MI. This
wave not only brings a deeper layer of moisture overhead, but also a
plume of marginal elevated instability with lapse rates in excess of
7 C/km. Elevated thunderstorms are thus possible Thursday afternoon-
evening, with the very steep lapse rates capable of both enhancing
heavy rainfall potential and generating small hail. Broad QPF
footprint ranges from 0.25" to 0.75" with highest totals south,
where localized amounts in excess of an inch are possible should
convection develop. Will acknowledge the close proximity of the
surface warm front to the state line in some models Thursday
afternoon (e.g. 03z.RAP), although the bulk of the guidance
including ensemble members does keep the front south. This holds
highs in the mid to upper 40s and firmly caps surface based
convection.

A taste of spring arrives Friday into the weekend as the surface
warm front surges north and the Gulf connection extends into
Ontario. 850mb temperatures climb into the teens, with many models
boosting temperatures into the 60s both Friday and Saturday. The
caveat to this is that temperatures may not reach 60 degrees until
Friday night, as the marine layer interacts with the lead edge of
the warm front during the day. Warm overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s are on track to exceed daily records and carry into
another seasonably warm day Saturday, in which there is higher
confidence in 60+ degree highs amidst breezy southwest flow.
Positioning of the SE CONUS high and resultant theta-e advection
initially is directed just to our north/west Friday, but will
gradually drift east Friday night-Saturday in the path of a
progressive northern stream trough axis. Direct gulf moisture
transport is expected Friday night through the first half of
Saturday ahead of a strong cold front that sweeps across the area.
Steep mid level lapse rates again support elevated convection Friday
night, but with more uncertainty as to if/when the warm sector could
destabilize Saturday. Will keep an eye on Saturday for organized
convective potential.

MARINE...

Dense fog early this morning is expected to lift through the late morning
hours. A ridge of high pressure maintains a weak gradient over the
Great Lakes today with generally light and variable winds. Moisture
pooling north of a stalled front across the Ohio Valley will result
in areas of marine fog at times. Low pressure tracking along this
front into the southern Great Lakes brings the next window for
widespread showers on Thursday as well as increasing northeast wind
over Lake Huron to 15 to 20 kt. Drier conditions with lighter wind on
Friday in between systems, then another low tracks into the Great
Lakes Friday night to bring showers, thunderstorms, and stronger
southerly flow into early Saturday. A cold front follows on Saturday
with drier conditions favored to finish the weekend.

CLIMATE...

The record highest minimum temps for Saturday, March 7th.

Detroit: 47 Degrees (Set in 2012)
Flint: 49 Degrees (Set in 2012)
Saginaw: 49 Degrees (Set in 2012)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AM
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......TF
CLIMATE......MV


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