National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce


000
FXUS63 KDTX 030348
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1048 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Another round of record high temperatures on Monday.

-Rain showers likely on Tuesday as cold front tracks through.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low level south to SSE flow will continue to direct some degree of
moisture into the lowest 2-3k ft overnight and Sunday morning. This
occurs beneath a strengthening inversion, bringing potential for an
increase in low cloud and/or fog during the early-mid morning hours.
Near surface saturation under steady nocturnal cooling may afford an
initial dip in visibility during the early morning hours,
particularly from PTK southward. Attention also focused on a
northward advancing area of stratus over eastern IN/western OH,
which may afford a wider coverage of MVFR restrictions emerging late
tonight and persisting well into Sunday. This possibility lends to a
lower confidence forecast in terms of prospective dense fog
potential, supporting holding with a conservative approach on
visibility trends. Modest wind speed from the south tonight, with a
slight uptick for the diurnal heating cycle Sunday.

For DTW...Potential for renewed stratus development late tonight
leading a higher coverage into Sunday. An additional disruption to
visibility with shallow fog development also possible overnight.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for cigs aob 5000 ft late tonight through Sunday morning.
Low Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024

DISCUSSION...

Low clouds finally dissipating this afternoon, giving us our late
day push above 50 degrees. With the late dissipation of the low
clouds today, weak pressure gradient lagging over southeast
Michigan, coupled with light southeast flow tonight off Lake Erie,
have elected to add patchy fog for areas along/south of the
extension of the Irish Hills based off the Regional Gem/ARW surface
condensation pressure deficits. Could end up being just more low
clouds vs surface visibility reduction however, and thus just the
patchy mention as min temps settle into low to mid 30s (still 10-15
degrees above normal).

Upper level trough along the west coast of North American with
copious amount of upper level PV/energy, leading to a very strong
upper level wave/surface low tracking through the northern Plains
tomorrow and into southern Manitoba tomorrow evening. Excellent 500
MB height fall center tracks through northwest Ontario and then into
Hudson Bay on Monday, with little to no height falls over Lower
Michigan. Deep and strong southwest flow will allow for another
round of record high temperatures on Monday. Based on 925 MB temps,
will lead toward middle of road Euro (~15 C) suggesting highs in the
lower 70s/around 70 vs cooler/moist NAM (~13 C) and drier/warmer
(~17 C) Canadian model.

Cold front/frontal boundary to slide through the Central Great Lakes
Tuesday. With PW values aoa 1 inch and sufficient low level FGEN,
rain showers appear likely with a slight chance of non-severe
thunderstorms as we become modestly unstable, with showalter index
at or slightly below zero and mid level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/KM.

Back to another split flow pattern to finish the work week, with
southeast Michigan caught in between the northern and southern
branches, which favors above normal temperatures. A southern system
looks to make a run toward the southern Great Lakes by Friday, but
confidence is low at this time.

MARINE...

Warm air advection and ridging aloft is allowing for stable marine
conditions today while skies gradually clear from west to east
through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds become more south-
southeasterly tonight into tomorrow in response to the developing
northern plains low pressure system. Pressure gradient will
gradually increase throughout the day on Sunday with the peak of
wind gusts to around 30 knots across central/northern Lake Huron
coming Sunday evening. The wind direction will allow waves to build
into the nearshore zones of the Thumb bringing possible Small Craft
conditions overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Winds decrease
slightly for Monday while holding out of the south before a weak
cold front sweeps through the region on Tuesday. Mainly a wind
direction shift to the northwest and increased rain chances will be
associated with this frontal passage. Cooler airmass settles into
the region by mid-week.

CLIMATE...

Here are the record high temperatures for March 3rd and 4th:

March 3rd:
Detroit 67 (set in 1974)
Flint 68 (set in 1974)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 69 (set in 1974)

March 4th:
Detroit 69 (set in 1983)
Flint 63 (set in 1983)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 56 (set in 2000)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AA
CLIMATE......SF


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