Expert Forecast Opinion

382
FXUS63 KDTX 270353
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1153 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No significant weather concerns through the weekend as dry and
mostly sunny weather is expected.

- Temperatures trend up each day with highs reaching the mid to
upper 80s by Sunday.

- Unsettled weather then becomes more likely late Sunday through the
middle of next week with periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...

A mid level ridge and surface high pressure combination is locked in
place over the Great Lakes for the first half of the weekend. The
associated dry and stable air mass ensures sky free of low clouds
with the possible exception of a few patches off western Lake Erie
around sunrise. A few cirrus streamers also make it around the mid
level ridge and down from the northern Great Lakes and Ontario.
Light and variable to calm wind becomes light easterly as a nearly
identical day unfolds through the afternoon into Saturday night.

For DTW/D21 Convection...There is no chance of thunderstorms
through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

DISCUSSION...

Near-surface anti-cyclone is currently centered in the vicinity of
Southern Lake Huron - bringing mainly sunny conditions with light
southeasterly winds. A shallow diurnal cumulus fields sprouted
midday along and south of a Howell to Grosse Isle line - in an area
of increased near surface moisture. These clouds are already well on
the way to mixing out. The reduction in surface moisture via
advection and mixing should limit fog formation overnight tonight.
The exception will be warmer inland bodies of water - where lows in
the upper 50s may establish some lake-induced patch fog.

The flow aloft is already undergoing a dramatic shift toward an anti-
cyclonic attitude - support broad subsidence and increasing heat in
the mid and lower troposphere. The influence of the upper-level
ridging will continue through the weekend - reintroducing typical
mid-summer conditions. An increase in high clouds will occur on
Saturday as some cirrus cascades about the upper ridge axis.

Sunday will be a bonafide summer day with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. Moisture levels will on the
increase during the afternoon hours as a weak wave trapped within
the longwave ridge inches closer to the Great Lakes Region. The
higher humidity levels will continue into Monday and chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The same can be said for
Tuesday as the wave drifts overhead and creates a weakness in the
ridge for a shortwave across southern Canada to exert a little
influence.

There is a substantial consensus for a prolonged period of above
average temperatures next week as the column remains warm along the
periphery of the expansive ridge over the central portions of the
CONUS. The Southern Great Lakes Region will be close enough to the
faster flow aloft - and the mid-level thermal fluctuations the
accompany the waves washing through - to prevent the forecast from
being completely dry.

MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure centered over The Thumb maintains weak and
variable winds through the rest of today yielding favorable maritime
conditions across the central Great Lakes. The high then migrates
into the eastern waters Saturday and provides southwesterly return
flow (locally) with only a minor uptick in afternoon wind speeds
after the reestablishment of a better defined surface pressure
gradient. Peak gusts could reach 20-25 knots for portions of
northern Lake Huron Saturday evening while the rest of the waterways
generally hold AOB 10 knots. A weak shortwave trough approaches
Monday bringing the next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms
followed by a more organized surface low pressure system Tuesday
with higher precipitation chances.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...Mann
MARINE.......KGK


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