severe weather

WFO Detroit/Pontiac Severe Weather Statistics

Year	FAR	POD	CSI
1994	0.727	0.375	0.187
1995	0.247	0.785	0.624
1996	0.325	0.873	0.614
1997	0.303	0.812	0.600
1998	0.238	0.848	0.670
1999	0.192	0.773	0.563
2000	0.245	0.859	0.672
2001	0.258	0.790	0.620
2002	0.265	0.712	0.567
2003	0.287	0.869	0.644
2004	0.350	0.866	0.590
2005	0.292	0.776	0.588
2006	0.266	0.818	0.631
2007	0.261	0.895	0.680
2008	0.266	0.873	0.663
2009	0.407	0.892	0.553
2010	0.328	0.917	0.633
2011	0.312	0.850	0.614
2012	0.353	0.883	0.596
2013	0.284	0.827	0.622
2014	0.250	0.914	0.700
2015	0.256	0.749	0.595
2016	0.286	0.706	0.550
2017	0.379	0.782	0.529
2018	0.367	0.868	0.578
2019	0.316	0.807	0.588
Year	FAR	POD	CSI

WFO Detroit Severe Weather Statistics

Year	FAR	POD	CSI
1986	0.603	0.596	0.313
1987	0.753	0.523	0.201
1988	0.667	0.333	0.200
1989	0.697	0.407	0.210
1990	0.614	0.653	0.321
1991	0.500	0.500	0.333
1992	0.590	0.657	0.397
1993	0.437	0.500	0.360
1994	0.534	0.556	0.339
Year	FAR	POD	CSI

WFO Flint Severe Weather Statistics

Year	FAR	POD	CSI
1986	0.750	0.545	0.207
1987	0.750	0.462	0.194
1988	0.727	0.167	0.115
1989	0.250	0.200	0.187
1990	0.609	0.429	0.257
1991	0.400	0.534	0.394
1992	0.389	0.620	0.484
1993	0.500	0.640	0.390
1994	0.341	0.741	0.536
Year	FAR	POD	CSI

* White Lake forecast office assumed County Warning responsibility for the WSO Detroit and Flint areas on July 23 1994.

False Alarm Ratio (FAR): This ratio measures how often we issue false alarms, in other words, a measure of crying wolf. Ideally we want this to be 0.0%.

FAR = Unverified warnings / (verified warnings + Unverified warnings)

Probability of Detection (POD): This is the percentage of all events which were warned events, a perfect score would be 100%.

POD= Warned events / (warned events + unwarned events)

Critical Success Index (CSI): CSI is the ratio of warned events to the total number of events + the number of unwarned events. As with the POD, 100% is a perfect score.

CSI = Warned events / (warned events + unwarned events + unverified warnings)