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Overview

A combination of synoptic snow and lake effect banding characterized the first winter precipitation of the 2025-2026 winter season. Snow initially began during the early morning hours of Sunday, November 9th as low pressure deepened while tracking across the Ohio Valley. SE Michigan was favorably positioned for cooler temperatures within the northern quadrants of the low. Models were initially forecasting a sharp band of frontogenesis to develop over the area, but ultimately the forcing and moisture prospects settled toward a more standard light/steady snowfall for most of the morning hours. Most areas saw around 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation by mid-day. As the low moved east toward New England, a very cold airmass surged across the Great Lakes while cyclonic north-northeast flow across Lake Huron began to induce a lake response. The lake effect response with this system stole the show in terms of snowfall amounts, in which two convergence axes led to advisory-level snowfall Sunday-Sunday night. The first was downwind of Saginaw Bay, which is a less common lake effect setup in the DTX CWA, in which banding started to develop late in the morning and persisted until flow shifted more northerly Sunday evening. When all was said and done, storm total accumulations were around 2-5 inches under the most intense snow bands. The other location of interest was downwind of southern Lake Huron toward St. Clair and Macomb Counties, where a more organized/linear lake effect snow band developed overnight. Snow accumulations in this area were around 3 to 5 inches by Monday morning. 

Some of the challenges with this forecast included warm ground temperatures and air temperatures near freezing, which generally melted the snow in areas that did not see lake effect. There were also questions as to how the warm waters of Lake Huron would impact snow-to-liquid ratios in the lake effect bands. For reference, 24-hour liquid precipitation amount was 0.29" at MBS. 

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