Critical Fire Weather Continues for Coastal Southern California; Sharp Temperatrue Swings in the East

Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions will continue for southern California through Wednesday due to moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds. Red Flag Warnings are in effect. A fresh Arctic blast will impact the eastern half of the U.S. through the middle of this week before milder temperatures briefly return by week's end. Heavy lake effect snow continues in the Great Lakes. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Wed, Jan 15, 2025 at 6:06:58 am MST

Watches, Warnings & Advisories

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National Weather Service Great Falls, MT

High Wind Warning

Air Stagnation Advisory

Onset of cold and Snowfall Friday

Coldest Temperature Ranges

Here's an updated weather story that shows that the timing of the arctic air on Friday has been slightly delayed, but still on track to push in area-wide by Saturday. There's a 60% chance that snow develops Thursday evening . There is a 40 to 50 percent chance for greater than an inch of snow in the west-central Montana valleys, but higher in the mountains. The range of snowfall in the west-central Montana valleys go from a trace up to 3 inches. If snow showers are more robust and last longer Thursday night into Friday morning, then some locations may see locally higher amounts within that range. Gusty east winds ranging from 15 to 35 mph are expected with the arrival of the cold air on Friday. The higher wind speeds will be found in the channeled terrain and to the west of gaps like Badrock Canyon and Hellgate Canyon just to name a few. Be prepared for reduced visibility and slick areas on Friday into Saturday. The bright yellows in the snow probability image signify greater than 90 percent, or highest confidence for greater than 1 inch of snow.

Here's an updated box and whisker plot of how cold the temperature might get to this weekend. Because the Northern Rockies is on the western edge of the huge arctic airmass (extending all the way east towards the Mid-Atlantic states!), there continues to be many ways this forecast could bust. Hopefully this plot gives you confidence, especially the temperatures within the blue squares (or the "most likely range") that certain locations will "be at least this cold". The models have trended colder for the weekend. If this pattern continues, there could perhaps be locations that are able to get well below zero. For Butte, we can say that temperatures have the most likely outcome of getting as cold as 10 to 20 below zero. But climatology and similar patterns would suggest that if we can get the flow patterns and localized calm and clear conditions, then we could reach the much colder temperatures. This update for Butte has a 40 below for a 5 percent chance of occurring.

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Critical Fire Weather Continues for Coastal Southern California; Sharp Temperatrue Swings in the East

NWS Forecast Office Missoula, MT