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These images are summaries of the 10-day forecast runs for runoff risk.  These images can be helpful for monitoring and evaluating the runoff risk behavior.

The images in the "Model Output" column are generated from the native 4km x 4km model output.  The images in the "geoTIFF" column are based on geoTIFF images derived from the model output and are re-projected to Google Mercator projection with 2km x 2km nearest neighbor interpolation.  The geoTIFF images represent what state partner websites will show.   


Columns are Day 1 (today) through Day 10
Row 1: Daily QPF (precipitation) [note: QPF only available for 7 days]
Row 2: Daily Rain + Snowmelt (RAIM) from the Snow-17 model that is passed to SAC-HTET soil model
Row 3: Daily average simulated snow depth (inches) from Snow-17
Row 4: Daily average soil temperature (F) from surface to 4" depth
Row 5: The average soil temperature (F) of the three previous days (not including today) from surface to 4" depth
Row 6: Frozen Soil/Snow Condition:  For a given day, checks if snow depth > 1" (Row 3) and/or ground is frozen (Row 5)
Row 7: Indicates if runoff is increasing at anytime in the given day
Row 8: Indicates if UZTWC > 80Percentile & is increasing at anytime in the given day
Row 9: Daily Runoff Risk [Valid for only this day]

Row10: Daily Total Runoff Risk :: Looks ahead at all days in future and indicates:
       (1) Runoff on FZ/Snow on any day in future, or
       (2) FZ/Snow on any day in future if no risk is expected, or
       (3) 72-hour risk if no risk on frozen/snow is expected in future

Note: Following post-process modifications are still in use at this time:
       (1) If RAIM is only from rainfall (no snowmelt), then risk in a cell with RAIM < 0.1" is not shown
       (2) If RAIM is only from rainfall (no snowmelt), when these conditions are met we impose a minimum risk:
                  (A) 0.75" =< daily rainfall < 1.5" == minimum risk bumped to Low risk      [20th percentile]
                  (B) 1.50" =< daily rainfall < 2.0" == minimum risk bumped to Moderate risk [50th percentile]
                  (C) 2.00" =< daily rainfall        == minimum risk bumped to High risk     [70th percentile] 


State Model Output GeoTiff