Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

653

FXUS63 KSGF 192308

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

608 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gradual warming trend and a drier stretch of weather through

  Wednesday, featuring temperatures in the upper 60s to

  lower/middle 70s.



- Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) return by Thursday

  and Friday. Low to medium confidence in the potential for

  strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy

  rainfall. There is still remaining uncertainties.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



Today-Tonight:

A dry airmass has settled into the region this afternoon,

featuring a slight warm up and dry weather. Highs top out in the

upper 60s to near 70 across the area, which is right around

average for mid April. This has been accompanied by mostly clear

skies and light west-southwest winds.



As we progress into tonight, a secondary weak cold front sags

south into the area with a surface high dropping into the Great

Lakes region. This will support some additional cloud cover

sneaking into central MO, though PoPs remain less than 10% given

little to no moisture return. Lows tonight fall into the 40s,

with a bit colder temperatures into the upper 30s across the

Eastern Ozarks.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



Monday-Wednesday:

Broad northwest flow aloft takes shape into early week, with

southwesterly low-level flow. This will support ridging across

the Plains, with increasing mid-level heights nudging into the

area. As a result, a warming trend will continue through early

week, with highs reaching into the middle 70s. Additionally,

drier weather prevails with this pattern.



Thursday-Saturday:

By Thursday, ensemble guidance depicts the evolution of a trough

building off the West Coast into the Rockies and Northern

Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop to the north

of the area with an associated frontal boundary draped across

the region. Moisture builds back into the area ahead of this

frontal passage, with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Additionally, the dynamics become stronger, supporting the

potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as rain chances

(50-80%) increase into Thursday afternoon/night. The latest

trends suggest the timing of the frontal passage and associated

thunderstorm chances to linger into Friday. SPC has highlighted

portions of the area in Severe Weather Outlooks (15-29%) on

Thursday and Friday to account for the potential. Localized

heavy rainfall and flooding may accompany this system as well,

particularly in areas that saw heavy rainfall over the last

week. WPC Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook encompasses our area for heavy

rainfall during this Thursday and Friday timeframe. There are

still many remaining uncertainties with the exact timing,

locations of greatest concern, and hazard types. Continue to

monitor the forecast for updates through the week. Lower rain

chances (20-40%) persist beyond Thursday and Friday into the

upcoming weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



For the 00z TAFS, VFR conditions are expected through the period

with a dry air mass in place. Winds will continue to diminish

and become southerly tonight before picking back up again out of

the south-southwest by mid morning with some gusts up to 22 kts

during the day.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Lindenberg