Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

369

FXUS63 KSGF 151914

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

214 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above-average temperatures will occur across the area for the

  remainder of the work week.



- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday night into Saturday

  night. There is the potential for strong to severe

  thunderstorms across the area.



- More seasonable temperatures to begin next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025



The persistent upper level ridge and surface high pressure

remained over the Ozarks region today with mostly sunny skies

and afternoon temperatures again above average for this time of

year in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With the ridge forecast to

remain over the region through Thursday night, little in the way

of forecast changes are expected through then.



Winds will be generally light with afternoon highs in the upper

70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the middle 50s to around

60 degrees. By Thursday night, the ridge is expected to begin

shifting east, This will allow the surface pressure gradient to

begin to tighten and produce a bit more breezy conditions

across the area from west to east. Winds may gust to around

15-20mph at times Thursday afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025



The upper ridge will continue to move east through the day

Friday as an upper level low slides to the northeast into the

northern plains. As the low moves east, energy rounding the base

of the trough will make its way into the plains. The warmer air

mass, currently over the region, will remain in place with

highs once again warming into the lower to middle 80s with the

Ozarks now on the western edge of the ridge Friday. South to

southwesterly wind gusts around 15 to 25 mph will occur at times

on Friday ahead of the approaching system.



The upper low will move into central Canada by Friday afternoon

with the trailing upper trough remaining over the central plains

and southwest into the Four Corners region. Increasing

southwesterly flow will allow moisture to make its way into the

plains and the Ozarks through the day Friday with a cold front

making its way into eastern Kansas after dark Friday evening.

There may be a few isolated pre-frontal showers for areas west

of I-49 before midnight Friday but the main rain chances are

expected to hold off until early Saturday morning.



There are still some questions on timing and strength of the

front moving through the Ozarks Saturday morning through

Saturday night. Synoptic and longer lead CAMS are coming into

better agreement with the potential for showers and storms, some

strong to severe, impacting the region.



As the trough moves east a cold front will move south across

the plains and move into far southeastern Kansas and

southwestern Missouri between 06-12z Saturday. Showers and

storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front,

mainly from 15-21z, before the front then moves into and

through the region through the day Saturday and into Saturday

evening. One concern with the system is the potential impact

any prefrontal precipitation will have on the environment across

the Ozarks. This may limit instability and severe potential.

There is the possibility that just rain and a few embedded

storms occur with the early activity.



A front will move through the area Saturday by early evening.

The best jet dynamics with the system move over Missouri

starting 12z with the surface front and 850mb/700mb

fronts/troughs moving through most of the Ozarks by Saturday

evening. The morning initiation of the storms are not the best

time of the day for severe convection though the surface

through 700mb features/fronts will aid in lift. Morning

instability from 300-900j/kg of surface based instability will

increase into the afternoon with upwards of 1800-2200j/kg of

CAPE across areas east of Highway 65 by the afternoon peak

heating. By 21z, the best 850-700mb jet dynamics will move east

of the region, though there will be a 90-100+ kt 500-250mb jet

streak nosing into the area through 00z.



There could be the potential for strong to severe storms on

Saturday, especially if a slower cold frontal passage occurs

later in the day and instability can recover after the morning

convection. If the front moves through faster Saturday morning,

the strong to severe risk will be lower on Saturday. Some

locally heavy rainfall will be possible but widespread heavy

rainfall is not expected as event the 90th percentile rainfall

for is struggling to reach 0.50 inches to 0.75 inches of

widespread rainfall for the region. This will likely limit any

flooding potential with this event. The main concerns with the

Saturday system will be wind and hail, which will depend on the

speed of the system to determine which will be the more

concerning. With the jet energy over the area, shear may be

enough for an isolated tornado to develop also.



Behind the front cooler conditions will occur on Sunday, as

highs may not warm out of the 60s for many locations. Models

indicate a ridge moving back over the region early next weekend

with highs in the 70s Monday into the middle of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025



Surface high pressure and upper level ridging remain over the

Ozarks region which will allow for VFR flight conditions to

prevail through the forecast period. Surface winds will be

light and mainly variable with a southeasterly component.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Hatch