Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

750

FXUS63 KSGF 310916

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

416 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to severe

  storms today and Monday. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail to

  the size of quarters are the primary hazards, though a

  conditional tornado threat cannot be ruled out this evening.



- Flash flooding will continue to be a concern in any areas that

  receive heavy downpours over the next two days, with recent

  rains increasing likelihood of localized flash flooding.



- Warm and humid conditions on Monday with heat index values in

  the 90s.



- Mostly dry conditions through the work week, with better rain

  chances returning next weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026



Early Sunday morning, a series of dynamic surface lows are

located along the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. A dryline

extends south from a low in western Kansas through western

Texas, with a stationary front extending southeast off the low

through northeast Oklahoma all the way to the Carolina Coast.

A surface pressure trough extends southeast from another

surface low in the Black Hills, stretching across the Missouri

Valley and into the Missouri Bootheel. This pressure

trough/quasi-stationary boundary has been the primary axis for

weakly organized convection overnight amidst a broad warm air

advection regime.



A weak upper-level trough over Montana will slowly become cut

off through the day today, and ridging aloft will continue

building northward through the Plains through the day today and

into the work week. This will be the beginning of a persistent

500mb/300mb omega block-like (not actually blocked, but taking

the same shape as an omega block) pattern that will persist

into midweek, with troughing on the west and east coasts and

ridging through the central CONUS.



Well-saturated conditions at the surface will allow for patchy

fog development again this morning, though winds will generally

mitigate dense fog potential to localized areas, specifically

low-lying areas.



Despite ridging building aloft, the low-level pattern keeps us

in everything but a quiet, predictable stretch of weather. A

very warm and moist airmass is in place across the central US,

with dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s stretching from the

Texas Coast northward through eastern Nebraska. Southerly flow

throughout the Plains will continue to sustain this large plume

of warm, moist advection through today, which will increase

instability to 2000-4000 J/kg of CAPE across our area by 00Z

tonight. Bulk shear also improves through the day to above

30kts.



Models aren`t even initializing convection properly so take them

with a grain of salt (welcome to MCS season), but the potential

scenarios of evolution they hint at for today are some mix of

the following (in no particular order): scattered storm

development through the morning and into the afternoon, overall

dissolution of the early AM stuff and a dry period all afternoon

into this evening, a mostly dry morning with isolated

redevelopment this afternoon, and upscale storm development

to our north/west moves into the area very late tonight.



Lack of synoptic forcing should keep storms fairly disorganized

through at least this evening. However, between the sfc

pressure trough to our north, the stationary front to our south,

the subtle isentropic ascent from the southerly winds, and the

outflow boundaries that will be left behind by morning

convection, current forecast hedges that there will be ample

mesoscale sources of lift to push towards the "isolated to

scattered showers and storms most of the day today" solution.

2000+ J/kg of CAPE will be available by the time the cap breaks

around 10-11am.



The ingredients don`t line up perfectly spatially for severe

weather this afternoon and evening, so the risk is quite

conditional, but there will be a threat for damaging winds up

to 70 mph and hail up to the size of quarters with any storms

that form. Tornado threat is low but not zero, with low-level

shear remaining rather meager until just before sunset, and storms

should become elevated fairly quickly after sunset as the

nocturnal inversion develops. Damaging winds will likely

dominate as the primary hazard type considering 1000-2000 J/kg

of DCAPE and the mid-level dry air.



Flash flooding will also remain a concern anywhere that storms

can form. We are saturated from the recent rains, and anywhere

that sees downpours associated with these efficient rain-

producing storms will be at risk for flooding, especially if a

clustered mode results in multiple storms moving over the same

area in a short period of time.



With so much uncertainty in evolution this afternoon and

evening, the forecast gets muddy fast as we progress into

tonight and Monday. Better instability and theta-e to our north

and west would promote a more organized storm mode with a

stronger, more dominant cold pool if storms can find a mechanism

of lift in northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri this evening.

Northwest flow aloft would advect the potential MCS into our

area late tonight into Monday morning, which could bring another

round of severe weather.



The potential MCS will have dramatic implications on Monday`s

evolution. It could wash out the environment early and prevent

additional redevelopment in the afternoon, or it could dissipate

as it arrives, leaving an outflow boundary behind without

washing out the environment, which would increase severe weather

potential. While the environment isn`t quite as favorable on

Monday for severe weather as it is today, there is still enough

shear and instability present that a low severe weather risk is

maintained for Monday as well.



Southerly low-level flow keeps the heat coming, with

temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s this

afternoon and again Monday. The muggy air mass will bring heat

indices into the 90s both days.





&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026



The omega-like upper-level pattern persists into at least

midweek, with ridging likely resulting in mostly dry conditions

through much of the week after Tuesday (PoPs 20% or less). Would

not be surprised if global models are not yet picking up on more

subtle low-level features that would suggest slightly higher

PoPs (perhaps some pulse storms) in the afternoon, but the

highest chances push past us after Tuesday as the ridge-riders

move east with the ridge as it expands into midweek.



Global ensembles and AI models still suggest the pattern

breaking down late in the week, but very little else to be

gleaned from recent long-range models.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026



Not a clear cut forecast. Most likely outcome is predominantly

VFR conditions through the period. The two factors that would

impact prevailing VFR are 1) isolated to scattered

showers/storms, and 2) decreased visibility from BR/low stratus,

mostly at KBBG but maybe also KSGF.



Storms: isolated to scattered development/redevelopment through

the AM hours. Low confidence in impacts to TAF sites due to

limited coverage of storms. MVFR visibility possible within any

storms due to heavy rainfall. Very low (<20%) chance of

additional scattered showers and storms during the afternoon

Sunday.



Visibility/BR: the low levels are very saturated, and similar to

last night, visibility reductions due to mist/patchy fog will be

possible. Far lower confidence in magnitude of reductions, with

IFR conditions unlikely to be reached (<15% chance) due to

stronger winds, but MVFR expected for at least a few hours at

KBBG due to terrain.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Camden

LONG TERM...Camden

AVIATION...Camden