Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

899

FXUS63 KSGF 211127

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

627 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of

  Springfield to the 90s elsewhere into the weekend. Heat

  indicies in the upper 90s to around 100 southwest of

  Springfield.



- Marginal risk for severe storms northwest of Springfield late

  tonight into Saturday morning. Periodic, scattered rain

  chances (20-40%) will then occur on a daily basis Saturday

  through early next week. Many locations will remain dry.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026



The region remains influenced by a lob of the high pressure over

the Great Lakes region. Some cloud cover was moving over the

Ozarks from a storm complex moving across Kansas early this

morning. Rainfall from this system is expected to remain mainly

west of the Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas, though some

locations may see a shower or two from Pittsburg kansas to

Joplin and west but most areas will remain dry.



Today should see a slight increase in high temperatures compared

to yesterday, especially southwest of Springfield where a few

locations could approach 100 degrees. Dewpoints in the lower to

middle 60s will keep heat indicies generally at or below 100

degrees. An increase in mid and high clouds should arrive by

late afternoon and evening as another disturbance moves down

towards the area.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026



The upper level pattern is forecast by the synoptic and

ensembles to be stuck in a western ridge, eastern trough with

the Ozarks under the influence of upper level northwesterly

flow and on the northeast periphery of the ridge. While this

pattern can be dry, any disturbances that slide down and over

the region can bring occasional rain chances.



One such disturbance is expected to move over the Ozarks late

this evening into early Saturday. NBM precipitation chances have

remained in the 20-40% range with the main uncertainty on rain

placement. The SPC has included the far northwest portion of

our area in a marginal risk for late tonight into Saturday

morning, though the latest outlook pushed the Marginal risk a

bit to the north. Confidence is pretty low with system and

additional updates are likely. Ensembles suggest additional

shortwaves dropping down Sunday through Wednesday which will

keep daily rain chances going, albeit on the low side of

probabilities.



The one thing that is expected to continue despite any rain

chances is the summer time heat. Thank to this, and the limited

rain over the past 1 to 2 weeks, increasing drought (D0 and D1)

occurred this weak. This potential, flash drought, may aid in

highs reaching into the 90s across most of the area this

weekend into early next week. Locations west and southwest of

of Springfield will be the hottest with highs around 100.



There will be the need to keep an eye on afternoon mixing since

this could/should keep heat indicies below 100. However if we

start seeing higher values then heat headlines could return,

especially given the prolonged nature of the heat. The Heat Risk

tool does show pockets of the major category across the far

southwest corner of Missouri this weekend into next week. The

latest CPC outlook for late August into early September favors

lean in the chances towards above average temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026



The region will see mainly VFR flight conditions through the

forecast period. There is the potential for a few showers that

may move near the KJLN terminal through the day but coverage

and confidence kept mention out of the forecast. This may need

to be amended as the day goes on depending on how the atmosphere

develops.



Winds will be light with only a few to scattered middle to high

clouds moving over the region.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Hatch