National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
    
                        
626
FXUS63 KSGF 162259
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average temperatures will occur across the area for the
remainder of the work week.

- Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area Friday
night into Saturday night. There will be the potential for
some strong to severe storms.

- Cooler conditions will occur on Sunday behind the front.
Slight warm up occurs on Monday followed by near to slightly
below normal temperatures next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper low
over southern Colorado lifting to the northeast. A large
amplitude ridge axis extended from the eastern Gulf into the mid
and upper Mississippi valley. At the surface a frontal system
extended from the low in Colorado into the northern plains.
Abundant sunshine was occurring across the forecast area with
warm temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s so far this
afternoon.

Tonight and Friday: The upper low will continue to lift
northeast tonight into Friday and will cause the upper ridge
axis to shift to the east. Moisture should begin to increase
from the south on Friday, but we are expecting precipitation
chances to hold off until late Friday night with the upper wave
and front approaching from the west. Southerly winds are
expected on Friday and despite the increased cloud cover, we are
still looking at well above normal temperatures for this time of
year with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Storm and severe chances Friday night-Saturday night: By late
Friday evening into the overnight, we start to get upper level
jet energy into the area and shower/thunderstorm chances will
increase. Elevated CAPE increases as we head into early Saturday
morning through midday so we could see some stronger storms
capable of some large hail from early morning into the early
afternoon. As we get into the mid to late afternoon and then the
evening, deep layer bulk shear of 40 to 70 kts is expected and
the surface front will begin to push into the area. The main
question will be how much instability can develop in the wake of
the morning convection ahead of the front and best shear. If
enough instability can occur ahead of the front, then we could
see some potential for supercells before the front begins to
surge east as the upper level jet punches in. Once the front
begins to surge through, convection should become mostly linear
as it pushes through the remainder of the area. The most likely
area for severe storms will be along and south of the interstate
44 corridor from the mid afternoon into the evening. All modes
of severe storms will be possible, with the main risk being with
damaging wind and large hail. Despite the drought, if some
training of storms can set up then a localized flood risk would
be possible, although we are not expecting widespread flooding
with this event.

Cooler temperatures behind the front: The cold front will push
through Saturday night with a dry air mass and cooler
temperatures Saturday night into Sunday night. Lows will dip
into the 40s with highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 60s.

Rain chances and a bit warmer Monday: The surface high will
shift east of the area by Monday and another surface front will
develop in the plains ahead of the next upper wave in the
northern plains and upper Mississippi valley. Southerly flow
will increase over our area in between the surface high and low
pressure which will draw some moisture into the area ahead of
the front which moves through late Monday into Monday night.
Little or no instability is expected. Models are split on
whether to develop any precipitation as the front moves through
but we are going with low end pops(15-30%) for showers Monday
night. Highs on Monday will return to above average in the mid
to upper 70s. The increased surface pressure gradient on Monday
will lead to some gusty winds, possibly up to 30 mph at times.

Temperatures cool back down on Tuesday behind this second
front, back into the mid 60s to around 70 which will continue
into Wednesday. Lows may dip into the mid to upper 30s over the
eastern Ozarks by Tuesday night, with most of the area in the
low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF
period. Breezy southeasterly wind conditions will begin to
taper off as the evening progresses, however gusts up to 20kts
at KSGF and KJLN are expected once again beginning Friday
morning. Additionally, winds will become southerly by the
morning, shifting out of the south-southwest by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Melto