Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

856

FXUS63 KSGF 161126

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

526 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM this morning for

  Howell, Oregon, Shannon, and Dent counties. If fog forms,

  visibilities may drop below a half mile at times, especially

  in low-lying areas.



- Windy Tuesday with gusts up to 40 mph possible west of

  Springfield.



- Above-average temperatures are likely (70-90% chance) this

  week with highs in the 60s and 70s through Thursday. Some

  records may be broken.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



Synoptic overview: High pressure currently sits over the Ozarks,

allowing for clear skies and calm winds. The trough/low that brought

rain late last week is moving off the east coast. Upper level

ridging is building in to the central U.S., though there are

embedded mid- and low-level shortwaves. The next big system can be

seen just off the west coast as it begins to bring precipitation to

northern California today.



Uninhibited cooling has resulted in lows overnight in the 30s and

low 40s, with some high 20s readings in valleys out east. A Dense

Fog Advisory began at 11 PM. Fog has not yet been observed within

the SGF CWA, though it is widespread and dense to the southeast into

Paducah and Little Rock`s areas. Hi-res models have reduced

visibilities moving farther into south-central Missouri over the

next few hours, but as a whole, guidance has backed off on fog

potential for our area. This is interesting given the clear skies,

obviously ample radiational cooling, calm winds, and recent

rainfall. Many observations have come in cooler than the crossover

temperature by this time, yet fog has not developed in those areas.

Will let the DFA ride for a few more hours, but if these conditions

continue, it will be cancelled early.



The pressure gradient tightens today with approaching surface low

pressure, increasing wind speeds particularly west of Hwy 65 to 15

to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Flow will be from the south,

and with rising 850mb temperatures and mostly clear skies, highs

today will reach the mid to upper 60s. Winds decrease a bit after

sundown but only become calm in the far southeast, where ingredients

could theoretically come together again for some patchy fog, but the

odds aren`t as good as they are for the current early morning hours

wherein we still haven`t seen any fog. So, pretty doubtful there is

much to worry about tonight. Lows tonight dip to the low 40s out

east but remain in the low 50s to the west where cloud cover will be

higher.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



Tuesday, shortwave energy approaches ever closer, and the pressure

gradient tightens even more. Tuesday will be the windiest day this

week, particularly west of Hwy 65, where sustained winds could reach

25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. East of Hwy 65, sustained winds will

remain below 25 mph and gusts maximize at 30 mph. These strong south-

southwest winds will stream warm air into the area, resulting in

widespread highs in the 70s.



The surface front approaches Tuesday night, but moisture and

instability are lacking, keeping PoPs below 20% for most of the area

and 25-35% for the far northern counties. Better rain chances remain

north of the area, closer to the low pressure center. The main

effect of the frontal passage is the reduction in moisture for our

area; it will not have much of an impact on temperatures, which

continue to soar into midweek.



Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the low

to mid 70s. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures 20+ degrees

above normal will have Wednesday feeling like spring. Temperatures

stay high for Thursday before a negatively tilted surface trough

pushes through Thursday night and finally flips surface flow around

to the north. Some low pre-frontal PoPs up to 20% exist in the east

Thursday. Highs Friday are much closer to normal, right around 50.



Headed into the weekend, a low ejects northeast out of Texas,

potentially bringing more widespread rain. There is vast model

disagreement on this at the moment, so PoPs remain low for now.

Temperatures remain around normal through the weekend, though the

CPC 8-14 day outlook does indicate a 60-70% chance for above normal

temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



VFR conditions through the period. Southerly winds pick up speed

at the beginning of the period, gusting up to 25 kts for JLN

midday and up to 20 kts for SGF. Winds decrease after 0Z. Clear

CIG/VIS. LLWS at JLN up to 50 kts after 6Z.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



Record High Temperatures:



February 17:

KSGF: 73/1911

KJLN: 74/2011



February 18:

KSGF: 74/2016

KJLN: 78/1986

KVIH: 72/1991

KUNO: 77/1986



February 19:

KSGF: 75/2017

KVIH: 76/2017

KUNO: 73/1981





Record High Minimum Temperatures:



February 18:

KSGF: 51/1971



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ083-097-

     098-106.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Nelson

LONG TERM...Nelson

AVIATION...Nelson

CLIMATE...Nelson