National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

FXUS63 KSGF 141115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Upper level low has closed off over northeast TX as expected with
cold Canadian high pressure centered over the CWA early this
morning. Temperatures were ranging from around 10 to near 20
degrees across the CWA with some record lows possible by morning.
Most of the area was clear with the exception of some mid level
clouds over south central MO in association with the next storm

Main focus in teh short term will be with the track and position
of the low pressure system and resultant snowfall Wednesday night
into Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

For today, models are in general agreement in bringing strong
closed upper low northeast into central AR by the end of the day
with an inverted surface trough from FL into the TN valley, with
cyclogenesis expected during the early evening hours over the TN
valley. With a very cold start to the day and a light north wind
over the area, expecting another cold day with highs in the low to
mid 30s.

Should start to see the TROWAL/deformation band of snow
developing this evening over our eastern counties. The surface low
should initially take a northerly track from TN into the OH valley
by midday Thursday, which is about when precipitation should come
to an end over our area. So the best chance of snow in our CWA
will be over south central Missouri tonight lifting into east
central MO Thursday morning. Heaviest snow will remain east of our
CWA, but we are still expecting 1 to 3 inches over our eastern CWA
with the far eastern CWA getting the higher amounts. Warmer air
should be moving in from the west on Thursday with some of the
western CWA getting into the mid 40s. The east will initially be
plagued with cloud cover and snow, but should see temperatures
increase during the afternoon with the low pulling away.
We will be issuing a winter weather advisory for snow across our
eastern CWA mainly east of a Branson to Osage Beach line (not
including Taney or Miller counties)

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

By Thursday night, the low will be long gone with west-northwest
flow over the area. Should be some low level warming taking place
with the cold core low departure and ahead of the next cold front.
Friday highs will be in the mid to upper 50s across the area which
should do away with any remaining snowfall.

Another cold front will move into the area Saturday. A wave of low
pressure is progged to develop along the front to our south with
some precipitation developing over the CWA on Sunday into Sunday
night. Temperature profiles would indicate mostly rain on Sunday,
with the exception of central MO which may have some light snow
and transitioning to snow on Sunday night before ending. Snow
accumulations at this time look to be very low with less than an
inch with most of the precipitation in the form of rain. Highs on
Sunday from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south and lows
Sunday night from the mid 20s north to low 30s south. Monday and
Tuesday look dry with 40s on Monday and back to the 50s on


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

TAF sites will mostly be on the outside of this storm system which
will bring snowfall over the eastern Ozarks. Will see some
ceilings at JLN and SGF around 10,000ft and possibly around
4000-5000ft ceilings at BBG tonight with a few snowflakes, but
should remain VFR at all 3 sites. Fairly light winds are expected
through the entire period at JLN, with some northeast to north
winds at SGF and BBG during the day today before diminishing


MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Thursday for MOZ058-070-071-082-083-092-096>098-105-106.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg