Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

023

FXUS63 KSGF 212337

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

637 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight (Level 2 of 5) severe risk through tonight across the

  entire area with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Primary

  risks are large hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary risk

  for a few tornadoes.



- A Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Excessive

  Rainfall risk through Monday morning. A Flood Watch is in

  effect through 7 AM Monday morning. Widespread rainfall

  amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized corridors up to 5

  inches.



- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances through next week,

  with the highest chances (30-60%) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

  Cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



This Afternoon-Tonight:

Now that the morning convective complex has moved off to our

east, we are closely monitoring the mesoscale setup for this

afternoon and evening. Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s

as of 2 pm, with low 70s dewpoints. Highs will top out in the

mid to upper 80s over the next few hours with gusty south-

southwest winds of 25 to 30 mph. Currently it appears we are

still a couple hours away from convective initiation, which

according to the CAM models should develop along or just south

of the cold front, which is currently draped from near

Benton(KRAW) west-southwest to near Iola(KK88). The environment

will favor supercell development initially, with deep layer

shear around 40 knots in the vicinity of ample instability

(MUCAPE 2000-2500+ J/kg). Steep mid-level lapse rates in this

setup suggests initial supercells to pose a large hail threat,

up to golf balls. Furthermore, sufficient DCAPE would support

damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. As for the low-level

environment, it supports a few tornadoes, particularly along

boundaries in the area this afternoon. Initial supercell storm

mode may quickly become clusters and/or segments as coverage

increases with a gradual southeast progression through the area.

Expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the

afternoon and evening. SPC captures this severe potential with a

Slight (2 of 5) severe risk across the entire area today

through tonight.



Later tonight, a secondary shortwave overspreads the area with

the cold front sagging farther south into the area. This would

support further thunderstorm development in a rich moist

environment. PWATs upwards of 1.8 to 2.0 inches will support

efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per a hour as multiple

rounds of thunderstorms track over the same areas. This will

further amplify the potential for heavy rainfall and flash

flooding through this evening and tonight. The storms this

morning brought rainfall amounts of between a half inch and an

inch to areas north of Joplin to Springfield, with much lighter

amounts to the south. For tonight, we are expecting an

additional 1 to 2 inches remains in the forecast, with some of

the CAMs depicting localized corridors of up to 5 inches. I am

thinking the heaviest rainfall tonight with the greatest

likelihood of training storms is generally along and south of

Interstate 44, which did not get hit as hard as areas north of

the interstate did overnight. This may mitigate the potential

for flash flooding, but given our antecedent conditions with

elevated streamflows and saturated soils, have maintained the

Flood Watch, which is in effect through Monday morning. WPC has

maintained a Moderate (3 of 4) risk for flashing flooding across

portions of the area.



The cold front is progged to slide south of the area late

tonight after midnight, dragging the rain and thunder potentail

to the south of the area. High pressure building into the area

behind that front will bring cooler and drier weather for

Monday. Highs Monday will be much cooler than today, only rising

into the mid 70s to low 80s. Precipitation chances will remain

mostly in AR and OK through Monday night.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Northwest flow develops beginning Tuesday and continuing

through at least Thursday, with transient shortwaves through the

pattern. This will bring additional chances for showers and

thunderstorms, especially along the southern MO and northern AR

border with a frontal boundary draped generally along the area.

These are not expected to be all day washouts, there are likely

to be scattered shower and thunderstorms each day this week. The

highest chances (30-60%) are currently depicted by the NBM on

Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a bit lower chances (30-50%)

Thursday through Saturday. This pattern will be accompanied by

cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



A line of thunderstorms is forming along and north of a line

from Joplin to Springfield to Viburnum terminals early this

evening. Right now these are non-severe general thunderstorms,

but scattered severe thunderstorms are possible along and south

of this line through about 06Z tonight as the line slowly drops

southward along a boundary moving southeastward. Large hail and

gusty, erratic winds to 50 knots are the primary hazards from

any severe thunderstorms this evening / early overnight. Behind

the exit of the storms after Midnight local time tonight, expect

decreasing ceilings into MVFR and areas of IFR. Have maintained

the MVFR ceilings and introduced IFR ceilings at Joplin and

Springfield terminals with the latest TAF routine issuance just

now. Branson terminal was left without IFR for downsloping flow

forecast to limit chances of IFR ceilings there late tonight.

Expectation is for scouring out and lifting ceilings from 13-15Z

Monday morning, but lingering MVFR ceilings slowly becoming VFR

towards 16-18Z under light northeast winds under 10 knots.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-

     077>083-088>098-101>106.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...00

LONG TERM...00

AVIATION...00