Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KSGF 202324
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

An upper level low is currently located across southern
Wisconsin early this afternoon. An upper level jet is spreading
south across the region. There is a strong cap in place across the
area. Lift is spreading across the region, but the cap is
resulting in just scattered showers developing mainly west of
Highway 65 so far this afternoon. A rumble of thunder or two may
be possible with this activity, but overall just a brief period of
light rain will be all that comes out of this activity.

Late this afternoon into this evening scattered strong to severe
storms will be possible. This will be a conditional risk on the
cap breaking. Deep layer shear is increasing across the region
with the jet spreading across the area. 0-6km Bulk shear values
are in the 40 to 50kt range. MLCAPE values around 3000 to 4000
J/kg. The cap is currently pretty stout and is not expected to
completely erode, but the question is can it weaken enough that
lift can over come it. If storms can develop, hail to the size
of golf balls and 70 mph winds will be the risk. If the cap
cannot weaken enough, may not see storm develop this afternoon
and evening. Given that the cap will not erode completely, if any
storms can develop coverage will be more isolated in nature.

Overnight as the upper level low and a weak front sags south
scattered storms will be possible across the area, with the best
chances along and south of I-44. A few strong storms will be
possible.

The hot conditions will continue into this evening. Clouds from
the elevated convection may cool things briefly, but when the sun
comes back out, temperatures will warm right back up. Highs will
top out in the lower 90s to around 100 degrees across the area.
The hottest readings will be across extreme southeastern Kansas
and far southern Missouri. Heat index values around 100 to around
110 degrees will occur into early this evening. An Excessive Heat
Warning is in effect for locations along and south of a Joplin to
Branson to West Plains, MO line. A Heat Advisory is in effect for
locations along and south of a Pittsburg, KS to Springfield to
Eminence, MO line.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

The upper level low that is currently across Wisconsin this
afternoon, will slowly sag south into and across the eastern U.S.
this weekend into early next week. The low will help to keep the
upper level ridge west of the area. The ridge will nudge towards
the area during the middle of next week, then will be pushed back
to the west late next week as an upper level trough slides
southeast towards the region. The trough may bring the next rain
chances to the area next week.

A drier and slightly cooler air mass will spread into the area
this weekend into early next week. Highs will top out in the upper
80s to the lower 90s with lower humidity levels. No rainfall is
expected this weekend into early next week. Highs may warm into
the lower to middle 90s mid week before returning to the upper 80s
lower 90s late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Elevated convection moving through the area at this time.
However...with a midlevel cap in place...it is rather weak and
producing little lightining. Models do show this activity
continuing into the evening and overnight hours. So...have
maintained VCTS at all aerodromes.

Convection should clear the area towards sunrise leaving just mid
and high level clouds through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ088-
093-097-101>106.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ077-082-089>092-
094>096-098.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede