Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KSGF 062359 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

Key Messages:

1. Areas of dense fog potentially redeveloping tonight.

2. Rain becoming widespread by late Wednesday into Thursday.

3. Additional rain chances over the weekend and early next week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

Pesky southwest flow aloft as evidenced by the water vapor imagery
is keeping a surface front draped across the area. An area of low
pressure was located over southwest MO along the front. We have
temperatures behind the low in the 40s and ahead of the low in the
50s to low 60s. In addition, there are still some areas of dense
fog across the area which prompted the expansion and extension of
the dense fog advisory until 2 pm.

The low is expected to track northeast along the front, with only
a slight southeast push of the front expected tonight. With a
light wind and low level moisture, it is looking light the stratus
will continue over the area through the night and there is
potential for dense fog redevelopment, especially over the south
and eastern CWA. Will hold off on any advisory for now, but an
additional advisory may be needed later if the fog begins to
redevelop.

The southwest flow aloft will continue on Wednesday and will
eventually see some shortwave energy out ahead of the main low
begin to move into the area later in the day on Wednesday. Rain
should expand northward into the area from the south, eventually
becoming widespread over the southern half of the CWA by late in
the daytime.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

The rain will then expand across the entire area on Wednesday
night into Thursday as the main upper low begins to lift northeast
into the central/northern plains. Areas of southern Missouri,
south of the I44 corridor may see 1-3 inches of rain with this
system before it ends from west to east Thursday evening, with a
half inch to inch and a half northwest of the I44 corridor.

While we are not expecting any widespread flooding, there may be
some favorable low lying areas along rivers and streams that may
flood, most likely over southern Missouri.

Drier air should work into the area from the west behind the upper
low by late Thursday night and should end the rain chances from
west to east.

The upper jet energy remains quite active and may spread
additional rain into the area late Friday night into Saturday.

Most of Sunday looks dry for now, but another deep upper low
begins to move into the Rockies early next week with a strong low
pressure system developing in the plains. Low level wind fields
look decent out ahead of the low which should transport Gulf
moisture into the area on Monday and Monday night. SPC has added a
15% severe risk area for day 7 (Monday) into the southwest portion
of the CWA.

Temperatures look to be near or slightly above seasonal norms for
this time of year for much of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022

IFR ceilings and vis are likely overnight into Wednesday morning
with the lowest conditions expected at SGF. Conditions may improve
into MVFR by late morning or afternoon however precip chances
increase by the end of the period. Winds will remain light out of
the west to northwest through the period.



&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 110 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2022

Looking ahead at the CPC forecasts and some longer range guidance
shows the potential for a shift in the weather pattern for the
latter half of the month. A significant shift towards a -AO/NAO,
which produces an area of blocking high pressure in the vicinity
of Greenland, is forecast during the second half of the month. Why
does High pressure in Greenland matter? This results in a trough
across the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S. allowing cold Canadian and
Arctic airmasses to move south into the plains. As a result the
forecasts for the 8-14 day and the week 3-4 period is for a lean
towards colder than normal temperatures.

As a reference, normal highs for the last half of December are in
the middle 40s and normal lows in the middle 20s.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ055>057-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-097-098-101-102-106.

     Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for MOZ058-070-071-081>083-090>092-095-096-103>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Hatch