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FXUS63 KSGF 221054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
454 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Quite a bit of upper level cloud cover across the area and have
started to see an increase in the low level moisture and clouds
over the past few hours as well around 2500-3000 feet. Areas which
have seen the cloud cover have risen a couple of degrees. Quite a
temperature range across the area with near freezing temperatures
at VIH and the low 40s in southwest Missouri into extreme
southeast Kansas as a warm front was moving into the area. A
surface low was located over western Oklahoma early this morning
with temperatures in the low to mid 50s ahead of the low and cold
front in central OK. Aloft, a large scale trough extended from
Minnesota southwestward to Arizona. This system will be the main
focus in the short term forecast bringing mainly rainfall to the
area today and potentially some light wintry precipitation and the
back edge of the system as it moves out tonight.

In the longer term, focus will mainly be with temperatures as it
looks like we will get another couple shots of cold air late in
the week and another early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Will see upper trough shift east with a low closing off over
Kansas and pushing east into central Kansas by 00z. Surface low
and frontal system will move into far western MO by 00z. Low level
moisture will continue to move into the area with fairly strong
low level flow off the Gulf ahead of this system. Strong warm air
advection will enhance the lifting over the area throughout the
day with rain, possibly starting out as drizzle this morning,
spreading across the entire CWA. Sharply colder air sits just on
the other side of the cold front with this system with
temperatures falling below the freezing mark not far behind the
frontal boundary. While most of the precipitation should fall as
rain this afternoon and evening, the back edge of the
precipitation may have some freezing rain/drizzle as we begin to
lose cloud ice and our gridded database is producing a few
hundredths of ice over the western portion of the CWA. If we do
retain cloud ice longer then the precipitation would be some light
snow. Either way, the bulk of the accumulating precipitation will
be east of the cold air arrival. South central may receive a half
inch to three quarteres of an inch of rainfall with this system,
while areas further northwest will receive a quarter to half inch.
At this time we are not expecting to issue any winter headlines
with this forecast package, but will make a last minute decision.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Precipitation should be winding up if not all the way out of the
eastern CWA by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will struggle in
the low to mid 30s on Wednesday and in the low 30s to low 40s on
Thursday before the next surge of cold air arrives Thursday night.
This air mass will be centered over the CWA during the overnight
hours on Thursday night, with lows dipping into the single digits
to teens and wind chills in the single digits.

We will remain in northwest flow aloft through pretty much the
entire long term period with periodic shortwaves of energy moving
through, each with a chance of light precipitation in the form of
rain or snow. Highs will be in the 30s/40s from Friday through the
weekend with lows generally in the 20s. Another strong shot of
cold air will arrive early next week dropping lows back into the
teens for Monday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 448 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Breezy to windy conditions will persist through the period both
ahead of a surface low pressure system and behind it. Ahead of the
system, rain will overspread the area by late morning or early
afternoon, with MVFR/IFR throughout the TAF period. Rain may
change over to snow and/or freezing rain as colder air moves in
on the back side of the low behind the cold front by late evening,
however remaining precipitation will be short lived. Wind will
become northwesterly behind the cold front and remain gusty.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg