National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
    
                        
670
FXUS63 KSGF 112306
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
506 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of freezing drizzle this evening into the overnight
hours ahead of the main system. Take caution if traveling and
remain aware, even if seemingly in a lull, of potential
impacts.

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 12AM to 9PM Wednesday
for a stronger second system with mixed wintry precipitation.
At least minor travel impacts are expected for most of the
region.

- For Wednesday`s system, there is a greater threat for freezing
rain and/or sleet along a corridor parallel to I-44, with
highest accumulations across the eastern Ozarks. Expect
accumulations of a glaze to 0.20". The greatest snow threat is
along and north of Hwy 54. Expect amounts between 2-4 inches.
Mostly rain is expected along the Missouri-Arkansas border
within lower terrain.

- Another system will move through the region this weekend and
will bring additional rain and snow chances to the area, but
there is still uncertainty with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle have already been observed
across portions of southwest Missouri, with coverage of freezing
drizzle expected to expand overnight as temperatures drop to
and below freezing. Satellite analysis and model soundings keep
the saturated cloud layer warmer than the -12 to -18C
temperature zone where cloud ice typically grows, suggesting
that the saturated layer stays supercooled rather than frozen.
This supercooled phase will facilitate drizzle formation, and
cooling will create a mixture of freezing and liquid drizzle at
the surface, and subfreezing surfaces will see liquid drizzle
freezing on contact.

Confidence in the occurrence of areas of drizzle and freezing
drizzle persisting overnight ahead of the incoming storm is
high, but confidence in impacts from frizzle is lower. None of
the CAMs are initializing current conditions better than
another, and the forecast is further complicated by the fact
that our temperatures along and south of Highway 60 steadily
sit in the 31-33 degree range all night. Lift and larger-scale
dynamic support will not remain constant in time or space, which
decreases confidence in widespread impacts.

There will certainly be slick spots overnight, especially on
untreated roads, bridges, and elevated surfaces. History has
shown that freezing drizzle can cause hazardous road impacts and
travel conditions, and with that in mind, we have decided to
expand the Winter Weather Advisory segment accounting for the
mixed precip/ice accumulations further south to also encompass
the freezing drizzle threat. This Advisory is in effect
beginning midnight tonight through 9 PM Wednesday. Additional
expansions or changes to the Advisory will remain in constant
consideration for the next 12-16 hours as the main Wednesday
system advances into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight Wednesday
through 9 PM Wednesday for southeastern Kansas and most of southwest
Missouri.


The big system moves in early Wednesday morning, just in time
for widespread precipitation during the morning commute. Areas
along and north of the general Highway 54 corridor have a 50-85%
chance of seeing at least two inches of snow (highest chances
furthest northwest) and a 10-40% chance of seeing more than 4
inches of snow. Highway 54 stands as a good proxy for the edge
of the highest snowfall totals and where the sharp gradient in
snowfall totals lies: for example, there`s a 44% chance of over
4 inches of snow in Cole Camp (northern Benton County) and a 15%
chance in southeast Benton County near Climax Springs- a pretty
large variation in potential for a single county. Most likely
snowfall amounts are in the 2-4" range for the area in and
around Highway 54.

South of this area, expected snowfall totals fall off pretty
quickly. Between Highway 54 and a line generally from Pittsburg
(KS) through Bolivar (MO) to Rolla, the expectations are for
1-2" of snow, and all areas south of that line can expect less
than two inches.

South-central Missouri, especially closest to the Missouri-
Arkansas state line, is expected to remain primarily rain for
the duration of Wednesday. A glaze of ice from some freezing
rain may also accumulate in areas east of Highway 65 and south
of Highway 60.

The wide corridor spanning parallel to I-44 between Highway 60
and Highway 54 will be the area with mixed precip for most, if
not all, of the event. Various combinations of rain, snow,
freezing rain, and sleet will fall for the duration of the
event, with no hard times or locations where precip types
transition. There might be transitions back and forth between
precip types at a single location, with wet bulbing potentially
decreasing temperatures by a degree and increasing freezing rain
duration and accumulations locally.

HREF LPMMs show widespread ice accumulations of at least 0.01"
across southern Missouri, with the highest ice accumulations
reaching the 0.1-0.25" range in this middle corridor parallel to
I-44. Our forecast ice totals fall in the 0.05-0.1" range, with
potential for locally higher (up to 0.15") accumulations in
areas where a combination of persistent upslope flow and
freezing rain increases ice accretion efficiency.

Freezing drizzle potential returns again as the bulk of the
stratiform precipitation moves east out of the region and cloud
ice clears. We may get dry slotted, and large synoptic
subsidence could also suppress some of the FZDZ potential, but
there is a window where freezing drizzle ingredients line up
Wednesday afternoon along the northwest edge of the Ozark
Plateau.

After the system moves out Wednesday night, much colder air
is pushed south into our area by a building high in the Plains.
Low temperatures Wednesday into Thursday morning will range from
upper teens in Oregon County (far south-central Missouri) to
single digits in our northwest counties (north of Highway 54).
Sustained winds in the 10-15 mph range and gusts up to 25 mph
will bring wind chills down to lower teens in south-central
Missouri and below zero further northwest, especially into
central and western Missouri.

Highs on Thursday will range from mid to upper 30s in far
south-central Missouri to mid 20s in west-central Missouri,
warming further into the mid 40s to low 50s into the weekend
ahead of our next system. PoPs return Friday night, with 70-80%
chances of precip on Saturday. Cold air on the backside of the
system may have this precip be another wintry mix- more details
in the coming days.


.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

For the 18z TAFS, looking like mostly IFR and LIFR conditions
through the period at SGF/BBG, while JLN will likely start in
MVFR before falling into IFR later today. Next system will bring
a mix of drizzle, freezing drizzle, rain, freezing rain, sleet
and snow to the area with drizzle starting this afternoon. As
temperatures fall back to freezing and below will see this
become freezing drizzle for awhile before cloud ice moves back
into the area and we see more of a rain/freezing rain/sleet and
snow potential. Precipitation is not likely to end until after
these 18z TAFS expire on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings will occur across the area through the TAF
period this evening through the day on Wednesday. Winds could
vary from northeast to southeast and in between at times this
evening into Wednesday morning, then winds will become
northwesterly later Wednesday. Winds will generally remain 10kt
or less.

There could be some pockets of drizzle/freezing drizzle at times
this evening, but could become more widespread in nature tonight
into early Wednesday ahead of a storm system. As the system
moves through the area periods of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain
will be possible at the KSGF and KJLN sites and maybe more rain
and sleet at the KBBG site Wednesday morning. Then Wednesday
afternoon the precipitation will transition more to drizzle and
freezing drizzle at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CST
Wednesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CST
Wednesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Wise