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FXUS63 KSGF 240901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
401 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Early this morning...a stationary front extended from southern
Kentucky to a low near MEM...then across Arkansas to another low
near SHV. The eastern end of the front was advancing northward in
response to an upper level wave currently moving through the
Ozarks. An area of light rain and showers was currently making its
way into northern Arkansas. Low stratus has now developed across
the entire area with even some patchy fog noted along the
Missouri-Arkansas border.

The low clouds are expected to persist through the morning hours
and may not be able to mix out until early this afternoon. This
may eventually affect high temperatures. Right now...mid to upper
70s look reasonable but will continue to monitor through the day.

Scattered light rain and showers will move into southern Missouri
this morning although rainfall amounts will be fairly light. As
the upper level wave moves off to east later today...the rain will
gradually come to an end. With a moist air mass across the
region...overnight lows should only drop into the mid 60s. Patchy
fog and low clouds will also be possible again tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

As Tuesday rolls around...the attention then turns to what is
going on out west. By Tuesday...a longwave trough will move out of
the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. As it
will drive a cold front into the forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
frontal boundary but uncertainty remains as to how strong these
storms will be. Models are indicating MLCAPE values of 1000-1500
J/kg but only with modest shear values. For now...will continue
mention of strong storms with damaging winds being the primary

The frontal passage will occur Tuesday evening with a noticeable
10-15 degree drop in temperatures between Tuesday and Wednesday.
The rain will come to an end on Wednesday as Canadian high
pressure moves into the area. Lows Thursday morning will be the
coolest of the season with upper 40s likely north of US-60.

As the surface high moves off to the east and the flat upper
ridge begins to build westward...surface winds will shift back
around to the south and temperatures will begin to warm once
again with highs making it back to near 80 by Saturday. Yet
another front is expected to approach the area by this weekend
increasing the rain chances once again.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

A low level stratus will remain over much of the area overnight
into the day on Monday. IFR to LIFR ceilings will occur across
southern Missouri overnight. Fog and drizzle will also occur
at times into early Monday morning. A few showers will be
possible across the area on Monday, but will be isolated in
nature. Ceilings will gradually improve into the MVFR range during
the day on Monday.