Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

636

FXUS63 KSGF 112021

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

321 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms

  for northwestern portions of the area Saturday and Saturday

  night. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

  Confidence in coverage and probabilities are low.



- Warming trend this weekend into early next week as highs in

  the 90s return.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



Rest of today: A few isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of

thunder or two are possible, mainly south of I-44. Some fog is

possible overnight, but not expecting any widespread fog at this

time. Looks for lows in the 60s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



Saturday and Saturday night:



This time period is highly uncertain due to the nature of the

setup and model disagreement.



The overall setup is that shortwave energy and WAA will result

in potential for thunderstorms across the region (mainly N and W

of the CWA) with a very unstable airmass in place. With our CWA

on the fringe of better lift and forcing, we will depend more on

outflow and thunder complex cold pools to bring convection into

our area, which is very difficult to predict and models handle

poorly.



Some guidance does suggest a Saturday morning complex diving

into the CWA, which could bring a marginal wind threat if this

materializes. The afternoon and evening has the overall best

potential for severe storms, with the northwestern portions of

the CWA being most favored. Threats are still tricky to pin

down, but mainly looking at a marginal wind and hail threat,

with potential for some stronger gusts and larger hail if things

line up well.



Late Saturday into early Sunday is also uncertain as the

environment may, depending on earlier convective evolution,

favor a storm complex to move southeast into the area. However,

models differ significantly on if and where this could occur.

Worst case scenario is that a complex of storms moves through,

bringing primarily a damaging wind threat.



Looking at precip changes through the rest of the long term

shows almost daily 15-30% chances for showers and storms as we

will see SW flow aloft with shortwave energy potential along

with broad WAA.



Temperatures will once again be above average. Look for highs in

the low to mid 90s Saturday, then the mid to upper 90s Sunday

through Wednesday, with Thursday possibly looking just a little

cooler.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



Some morning MVFR cumulus will lift to VFR at KBBG, otherwise

look for VFR conditions this TAF period. There is a 15-30%

chance for showers and storms Saturday morning, but confidence

is very low.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Titus