Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

626

FXUS63 KSGF 162259

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

559 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above-average temperatures will occur across the area for the

  remainder of the work week.



- Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area Friday

  night into Saturday night. There will be the potential for

  some strong to severe storms.



- Cooler conditions will occur on Sunday behind the front.

  Slight warm up occurs on Monday followed by near to slightly

  below normal temperatures next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025



Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper low

over southern Colorado lifting to the northeast. A large

amplitude ridge axis extended from the eastern Gulf into the mid

and upper Mississippi valley. At the surface a frontal system

extended from the low in Colorado into the northern plains.

Abundant sunshine was occurring across the forecast area with

warm temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s so far this

afternoon.



Tonight and Friday: The upper low will continue to lift

northeast tonight into Friday and will cause the upper ridge

axis to shift to the east. Moisture should begin to increase

from the south on Friday, but we are expecting precipitation

chances to hold off until late Friday night with the upper wave

and front approaching from the west. Southerly winds are

expected on Friday and despite the increased cloud cover, we are

still looking at well above normal temperatures for this time of

year with highs in the low to mid 80s.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025



Storm and severe chances Friday night-Saturday night: By late

Friday evening into the overnight, we start to get upper level

jet energy into the area and shower/thunderstorm chances will

increase. Elevated CAPE increases as we head into early Saturday

morning through midday so we could see some stronger storms

capable of some large hail from early morning into the early

afternoon. As we get into the mid to late afternoon and then the

evening, deep layer bulk shear of 40 to 70 kts is expected and

the surface front will begin to push into the area. The main

question will be how much instability can develop in the wake of

the morning convection ahead of the front and best shear. If

enough instability can occur ahead of the front, then we could

see some potential for supercells before the front begins to

surge east as the upper level jet punches in. Once the front

begins to surge through, convection should become mostly linear

as it pushes through the remainder of the area. The most likely

area for severe storms will be along and south of the interstate

44 corridor from the mid afternoon into the evening. All modes

of severe storms will be possible, with the main risk being with

damaging wind and large hail. Despite the drought, if some

training of storms can set up then a localized flood risk would

be possible, although we are not expecting widespread flooding

with this event.



Cooler temperatures behind the front: The cold front will push

through Saturday night with a dry air mass and cooler

temperatures Saturday night into Sunday night. Lows will dip

into the 40s with highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 60s.



Rain chances and a bit warmer Monday: The surface high will

shift east of the area by Monday and another surface front will

develop in the plains ahead of the next upper wave in the

northern plains and upper Mississippi valley. Southerly flow

will increase over our area in between the surface high and low

pressure which will draw some moisture into the area ahead of

the front which moves through late Monday into Monday night.

Little or no instability is expected. Models are split on

whether to develop any precipitation as the front moves through

but we are going with low end pops(15-30%) for showers Monday

night. Highs on Monday will return to above average in the mid

to upper 70s. The increased surface pressure gradient on Monday

will lead to some gusty winds, possibly up to 30 mph at times.



Temperatures cool back down on Tuesday behind this second

front, back into the mid 60s to around 70 which will continue

into Wednesday. Lows may dip into the mid to upper 30s over the

eastern Ozarks by Tuesday night, with most of the area in the

low to mid 40s.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025



VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF

period. Breezy southeasterly wind conditions will begin to

taper off as the evening progresses, however gusts up to 20kts

at KSGF and KJLN are expected once again beginning Friday

morning. Additionally, winds will become southerly by the

morning, shifting out of the south-southwest by tomorrow

afternoon.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg

LONG TERM...Lindenberg

AVIATION...Melto