National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

FXUS63 KSGF 300757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
257 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Surface ridge will slowly move off the east today, allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. So expect sunny and dry
conditions across the region with temperatures warming up into the
upper 50s to low 60s for afternoon highs.

By this evening, surface ridge will be east of the forecast area
with next system approaching region in the active flow aloft. In the
meantime, clear and cool conditions expected tonight with lows in
the mid 30s to low 40s.

On Saturday, will see winds pickup from the south to southwest ahead
of a deepening upper level trough and associated cold front. Could
see gusts up to 30 mph at times during the afternoon hours. Highs
will be near normal between 60 and 65 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Weather continues to look quiet and dry for the rest of the weekend
and into next week.

Deterministic models, as well as the HREF, have similar timing with
this shortwave trough. Moisture remains limited with most of the
energy remaining well north of the forecast area. So expect a dry
frontal passage as it slides through Saturday evening. Winds will
shift to the northwest behind the boundary.

There will be decent cold air advection behind the front, so much
colder conditions on Sunday with highs only in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Beyond that, expect a gradual warming trend next week as upper level
ridge builds in. By Wednesday and Thursday, highs will be in the mid
60s to low 70s across the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected for the TAF sites
through the valid period. Light winds will become southerly around
10kts by late Friday morning. Patchy fog is possible at KBBG
toward sunrise early Friday morning, but unlikely with drier air
filtering in.