Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

498

FXUS63 KSGF 020727

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

227 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rainfall coverage and amounts continue to decrease through

  this morning, with precipitation exiting the area by this

  afternoon.



- Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will then occur

  this weekend through the majority of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026



The upper level system that we`ve been tracking over the past

few days has weakened substantially, with the previous 500mb closed

low now an open shortwave trough extending from western TX up

into northern MO/northern IL. Scattered showers have been

ongoing overnight, primarily in areas along/southeast of I-44.

As of 2AM, the 3-hour observed precipitation totals showed a

meager few hundredths of an inch, with some locations between

0.1-0.2". No lightning has been observed, as instability remains

weak, with drizzle being reported behind the light precip. The

surface cold front has been trekking southeast through the area

overnight, and is currently extending across southern MO.



As the early morning progresses, the cold front will continue

to sag southeast, and is progged to clear the forecast area

around sunrise. Some lingering drizzle/light rain will continue

to end from northwest to southeast through this morning before

fully exiting the CWA by late afternoon. Areas along/southeast

of I-44 could see additional rainfall amounts up to 0.4-0.75",

with amounts generally remaining below 0.1" north of the I-44

corridor.



Behind the frontal passage, a cooler and drier airmass will

begin to filter into the region, keeping afternoon temperatures

in the upper 60s to low 70s today.



Tonight will mark the beginning of an extended dry period, as

skies begin to clear from north to south. Expect overnight lows

to range in the 50s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026



Heading into the beginning of the weekend, upper level High

pressure will build over the desert southwest, with

northwesterly flow developing aloft. Dry conditions and close to

normal temperatures in the 70s and low 80s are expected through

midweek before a warm-up occurs, causing temperatures to climb

into the mid to upper 80s towards the end of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026



Aviation conditions are gradually deteriorating as a cold front

sags into the area. Observations show an IFR (700-1000 ft) cloud

deck just north of JLN and SGF. These should reach SGF and JLN

by 06-08Z. BBG is already experiencing LIFR cigs. Once these

cigs take hold, they should be quite persistent for much of the

TAF period. There is uncertainty in how long IFR cigs hang on,

though latest guidance and rules of thumb suggest clearing may

not occur until the end of the TAF period. Trends will be

monitored for the 12Z TAFs.



During this period, rain and/or drizzle is possible through

12-15Z. The main period to watch is between 06-13Z at SGF and

BBG where some heavier rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm

may occur, bringing visibilities down to 2-5 miles at times.



Winds are expected to stay north-northeasterly as the front

continues to push south. For the most part, winds will increase

to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times, especially

between 08-23Z.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Melto

LONG TERM...Melto

AVIATION...Price