Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

866

FXUS63 KSGF 102230

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

530 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light rain chances (30-60%) this evening for areas near the

  MO/AR border. Severe weather is not expected.



- Marginal risk (1/5) for a few strong to severe storms for

  locations mainly along and north of I-44 Tuesday evening and

  night. Currently, the main threats are damaging wind gusts up

  to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters.



- Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next

  weekend with highs in the 80s late week into next weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026



A surface cold front is currently moving south across far

southern Missouri this afternoon. An upper-level trough is also

moving east across the central Plains. Some weak elevated

instability is developing mainly in Arkansas but will clip far

southern Missouri this afternoon. Showers with some embedded

thunder have developed across Oklahoma ahead of the system. As

the upper-level trough continues to move east, most of the this

activity will remain south of the area, but some scattered

showers may clip far southern Missouri this afternoon. With the

weak instability, a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms will

be possible near to the Missouri/Arkansas border and to the

south this afternoon. Any showers and maybe a few rumbles of

thunder that are able to develop across the area will push out

of the area by this evening. Rainfall amounts will remain

overall light.



A cooler air mass is pushing into the region, and highs will

warm into the middle 60s to the lower 70s this afternoon. Lows

tonight will drop into the 40s.



An upper-level ridge will move over the Rocky Mountain Region

on Monday. The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, but a

warm air mass will start to advect into the region ahead of the

region and highs warm into the middle to upper 70s Monday

afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026



The ridge will remain west of the area on Tuesday, but slightly

warmer temperatures will continue to advect into the area as

highs warm into the lower 80s Tuesday afternoon.



The region will remain in a northwest flow pattern Tuesday into

Wednesday. An upper-level shortwave trough will move southeast

at of the northern Plains and across the region Tuesday night

into Wednesday. A weak cold front will also move through the

area ahead of the trough Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Instability will start to increase across the area ahead of the

system some, along with deep layer shear. Some drier air will

be in place in the 500 to 250mb range, which may limit some of

the instability. Forcing may also not be overly strong, so

storms may be more scattered in nature overall.



A few strong to severe storms will be possible, with hail up to

the size of quarters possible with a few of the strongest

storms Tuesday evening and night, mainly north of I-44. If any

line segments can develop, some localized damaging wind gusts

up to 60 mph would also be possible. The activity should push

south of the area by Wednesday morning and coverage will likely

decrease from north to south across the area.



The air mass will not be much cooler behind the front as highs

warm into the middle 70s to lower 80s Wednesday afternoon. The

upper-level ridge will move east over the region late this

weekend into the weekend. Highs will warm into the 80s late

week, with upper 80s to near 90 degrees possible Friday into

next weekend. The ensemble model members then indicate another

upper-level trough could move east into the region next

weekend. However, there is considerable difference between the

model members on the track, timing, and structure of the system

so there is a lot of uncertainty. Some rain chances could be

possible at some point next weekend but will be dependent on the

track and timing of the system.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 527 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026



An area of light rain will move across southern Missouri this

evening with the highest chances along the Missouri/Arkansas

border. Ceilings and vis will likely stay VFR. The rain will

move east of the area after 06z. Light northeast winds will

continue through the period.





&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Burchfield