517

FXUS63 KSGF 260820

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

220 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry with below-average temperatures through at least early

  Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 20s to

  low 30s.



- Widespread precipitation chances (70% to 90%) arrive late

  Friday and persist through the weekend. All rain is favored

  across most of the area, but wet snow may mix in across the

  eastern Ozarks late Friday into early Saturday.



- Below-average temperatures are likely to continue into early

  December.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025



Synoptic analysis shows an upper level low approaching the Great

Lakes region, with the associated surface low dragging a cold

front that pushed east of the forecast area late yesterday

evening. The pressure gradient remains tightened over the area,

which has led to the higher gusts continuing. Observations

overnight have showcased gusts ranging between 20-30mph, with

some localized higher gusts up to 35mph. As the low continues

making its way eastward through the Great Lakes and the trough

continues pushing away from our area, winds will begin to

diminish slowly throughout the day before becoming light once

again later this evening and tonight.



The aforementioned cold front that swept through the area

ushered in a cooler airmass, with observed temperatures in the

mid to upper 30s so far during the early morning hours (as of 2

AM). As the early morning progresses, we`ll see a temperature

drop of a few more degrees, with most locations reaching the

freezing mark before/around sunrise.



With surface high pressure overspreading the Plains and the

northwesterly flow aloft remaining over the region, sunny skies

will return to the area once again. Despite that, today will be

fairly chilly, with high confidence in afternoon highs

remaining in the low to mid 40s.



The cold will continue through at least the Thanksgiving

holiday, with overnight lows both tonight and Wednesday night

dipping into the 20s and low 30s. Temperatures on Thursday will

be slightly warmer than today, however they`ll still remain in

the mid/upper 40s (most of the area) to low 50s (towards the

MO/AR border).





&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025



As we look towards the holiday weekend, ensembles have

consistently depicted an upper level trough developing over the

western CONUS and digging into the Plains by late week/early

weekend. An associated surface low is progged to develop over

the Plains, with a warm front lifting over our area. This will

bring an end to the dry weather as moisture returns to the area,

with NBM probabilities ranging between 70-90% Friday night

through Saturday.



The big-picture forecast looks fairly on track from previous

forecasts, with continued agreement between models placing much

of our area in the "warm" sector, with temperatures above

freezing and the colder temperatures over northeast Missouri,

Illinois, and Iowa. As such, the most likely ptype scenario

remains: all rain across southwest Missouri/southeast Kansas,

snow favored across northeast Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa, and

a rain/wet snow mixture in between. This would lead to the mixed

ptype potentially over parts of the eastern Ozarks. That being

said, latest NBM probabilities of 24-hour snow >0.1" did

increase from the previous forecast, now showing a 30-60% chance

over the eastern Ozarks. Jumping up to the probability of >1",

NBM shows less than 15% chances.



Despite the greater consistency between ensembles, there remains

uncertainty regarding Sunday, as some guidance suggests wrap-

around precipitation affecting the area. If this were to occur,

more of the area could experience mixed wintry precipitation.

Confidence remains low at this point, so we`ll need to continue

watching trends through the week. Regardless, those traveling

during the holiday weekend should begin preparing now for

potential wintry impacts, and keep an eye on the forecast as we

get closer to this timeframe.



Heading into next week, below- normal temperatures will continue

to be possible, with highs ranging in the 30s for Monday and

into the 40s through midweek. There remains an 8-12 degree

difference between the NBM interquartile spread, so we`ll have

to see how much of the cold air can infiltrate the Ozarks with a

secondary upper level trough progged to push through the CONUS.

We`ll also need to keep an eye on precipitation chances with

this system - as it stands, large uncertainties regarding the

timing and magnitude remain, which would largely influence

precip chances, temperatures, ptypes, etc. We`ll continue to

monitor how models handle this system through the week and into

the weekend.





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025



VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF

period. Northwesterly winds will continue periodically gusting

up to 20-25kts before diminishing after 09Z at KJLN, and after

21Z at KSGF and KBBG.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Melto

LONG TERM...Melto

AVIATION...Melto