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FXUS63 KSGF 110941

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

341 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gusty southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph by this afternoon.



- Near to above average temperatures through Friday. The warmest

  temperatures will be focused across the south and west with

  highs in the middle to upper 50s.



- Cooler temperatures gradually settle into the area Friday

  night through Sunday, with the coldest temperatures on Sunday.

  Minimum wind chills on Sunday morning could be around -10 to

  -5 F degrees.



- Dry through most of the period, with a gradual warm-up to

  start next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025



Winds will be breezy out of the southwest with gusts up to 30

mph by this afternoon with the highest wind gusts over SE KS and

SW MO. Skies will remain partly cloudy through the day and a

warm front moves through making it feel mild with highs in the

mid to upper 50s. Winds stay elevated through Thursday night

and clouds stick around as well as lows sit in the mid 30s.



Next front is expected to move through Friday afternoon. Highs

tomorrow will still reach the middle 40s to lower 50s. Winds

will start out southerly then flip northerly and gust up to 25

mph. Friday night will be about 10 degrees cooler than tonight

with lows in the mid 20s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 214 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025



Saturday will start out with a warm front draped over us. There

is a bit of uncertainty on how far north that front makes it

through southern MO. NBM still has a large temperature spread

for Springfield at about 10 degrees with daytime highs either

in the 40s or 50s. Right now, we have the warm front only making

it just north of I-44. Highs only make it to the mid 30s to

lower 40s north of I-44 and mid 40s to low 50s south of I-44.



Then, another shot of cold air will move through in the evening

hours. The stronger CAA finally reaches us Saturday night with

lows sitting in the single digits with subzero wind chills and

northerly winds gusting up to 25 mph especially over in the

eastern Ozarks. No Cold Weather Advisory is being issued at this

time, though we may need one as we get closer to Saturday

night. We`d need to have a widespread -10 to -5 F wind chill

range and right now we only have a few isolated spots hitting

the criteria. The areas that we`ll need to monitor for an

advisory will likely be areas north of I-44 and east of Highway

65 up near central MO and near Rolla. LREF has probability of

apparent temperatures (wind chills) < -10 F at 12-20% in those

areas and confidence is low-medium at duration and coverage of

those cold temperatures. As mentioned in the previous

discussion, models are starting to get a better handle on this

arctic airmass this weekend. This latest update has temperatures

colder than the previous forecast and it may drop even more in

the coming days ahead.



Sunday will be chilly with highs only reaching the upper 20s to

lower 30s, but skies start to clear out as surface high

pressure starts to move in. The start of next week looks dry and

rain chances all but disappeared with the latest forecast

update. Monday starts the warming trend as high pressure moves

overhead. By mid-week, we could see temperatures in the 60s.

This return of mild temperatures will put the area 5 to 10

degrees above normal.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



VFR through the period with variable winds overnight. Winds turn

out of the southwest again on Thursday and will gust up to 20

knots and diminish by Thursday night.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Soria

LONG TERM...Soria

AVIATION...Soria