National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
    
                        
915
FXUS63 KSGF 162027
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
327 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity will continue through Monday then return
late next week.

- Daily chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-30%)
for the start of this week thanks to the hot and humid air
mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Current visible satellite imagery shows a few isolated thunderstorms
popping up over the Springfield/Branson area. These thunderstorms
may continue to form especially over areas along and east of Highway
65 where there is more sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the 70s)
and better CAPE values (3000-4000 J/kg). The main threats with these
storms are cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy downpours as
mid-level lapse rates are 6-6.5 C/km, which isn`t all that
supportive of hail. These storms are expected to continue for the
next few hours until diurnal heating drops off after 7 PM.
Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system has developed over western
KS and has tightened the pressure gradient all the way over into
western MO. This is evident at the JLN observation at the Joplin
Airport which has gusted to 25-30 mph over the past couple of hours.
Expect breezy southerly winds to continue over the next few hours in
that area.

Tonight, skies will clear out but it will still be a warm and muggy
night with lows in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A 500mb ridge will hangout over the eastern U.S. for most of the
week and a series of several shortwaves will move through the area
bringing rain chances of at least 15-40% for the start of this week.
Additional rain chances may need to be added to the afternoon hours
of each day through Thursday. Though, models don`t quite handle
pulse/pop-up thunderstorms very well in the long term. However, with
a moist airmass in place and multiple opportunities of shortwave
energy moving through, and a stalled front over northern MO, expect
a summer-like pattern of short-lived thunderstorms that form in the
afternoon and dissipate in the evening hours. A ridge begins to
build back over the region on Friday and will bring down dewpoints
just a few degrees for the end of the week with dewpoints near the
mid 60s. Rain chances begin to dwindle on Friday and Saturday.

Highs will still be warm this next week in the lower 90s to upper
80s by mid-week when we see a brief cool down. One thing to mention
that was brought up in the last discussion was the spread in
temperatures especially on Wednesday with at least a 5-6 degree
temperature spread. This could be due to the cloud cover that will
increase through the week as a tropical system moves onshore
westward across south Texas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Pop-up thunderstorms have formed near the MO/AR border and will
continue to develop generally along and east of highway 65. Main
threats are lightning and brief heavy downpours. Convection will
continue for the next few hours before skies clear out this
evening. Have added a TEMPO group to SGF and BBG to reflect
this.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria