Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

899

FXUS63 KSGF 050501

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1101 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light patchy fog again tonight into Monday morning (60-80%

  confidence). Freezing fog will not be an issue this time

  around as lows only drop to the middle 30s to lower 40s.



- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected through

  Wednesday.



- A pattern change brings 45-65% chances of widespread rain

  Thursday and possibly (15-30% chance) into Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026



The large-scale pattern today features broad ridging across the

entire CONUS. Mid-level water vapor imagery highlights two

branches of the jet stream ending at the base of mid-level

shortwaves. One branch extends from central California into the

Dakotas where a mid-level shortwave and surface low pressure

system is currently moving through. The second branch extends

from the Baja Peninsula into Oklahoma where another mid-level

shortwave is moving through. The surface low in the Dakotas is

vacuuming in air from the south, renewing warm air advection

across our area. Highs are on track to reach the mid-40s to

mid-50s despite high cloud cover.





Light patchy fog again tonight into Monday morning:



Moisture has also been advecting into the region through the

course of the day. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover will clear

as the backside of the subtle 700mb shortwave moves through the

area. Both factors may allow for some patchy light fog again

tonight into Monday morning much like last night. However, one

major difference includes a low-level jet developing overhead

creating 8-12 mph southerly winds tonight. This may be enough to

keep the low-levels mixed and unable to produce fog and side

more with low stratus. Either way, the probability for dense

fog is very low (<10%), so impacts are not expected.

Furthermore, low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-30s

to lower 40s which will inhibit any freezing fog potential.





Dry conditions above normal temperatures through Wednesday:



The ridge axis is progged to be directly overhead Monday,

bringing well above normal high temperatures in the lower to

middle 60s and lows in the middle to upper 40s.



Global ensembles then flatten out the ridge a bit Tuesday as a

small shortwave trough traverses the northern Plains. A weak

cold front will push through with this shortwave, but with the

flat trough and jet streak north of the area, any appreciably

cooler air will stay well north of the area keeping highs in the

60s Tuesday with lows slightly cooler in the mid-30s to lower

40s Tuesday night.



Heights then rise ahead of the next incoming trough/system,

allowing for above normal highs again in the middle to upper 60s

Wednesday.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026



Pattern change brings 45-65% chances of showers Thursday:



Global ensembles seem to have figured out the large-scale

troughing pattern coming into the area as NBM probability of

precipitation across the area has finally increased from 30-50%

to 45-65%. Despite this general agreement, clusters still reveal

slight differences in the timing/position of the shortwave

trough. This is resulting in drastic "wiggles" of the axis of

greatest rainfall amounts across the area. The 13Z NBM has this

axis across our far southeast counties. However, 12Z global

models (which most aren`t included in the 13Z NBM) depict a

shift further northwest with the axis over the I-44 corridor.

We`ll have to see if this trend continues to hold weight.

Ignoring pinning down where the greatest amounts land for a

second, the main message is that widespread, minimally impactful

rain showers are possible for much of the area (45-65%).



While the main message leads to minimal impacts, there are some

nuances to the forecast that model members are hinting at the

potential for. Firstly, the NBM forecast calls for mainly rain

showers as the "Probability of Thunder" was too low to introduce

thunderstorms in the forecast. However, global deterministics

like the GFS and ECMWF both bring in enough CAPE for some

embedded thunderstorms. As a result, would not be surprised to

see subsequent forecast packages introduce the mention of

lightning.



Secondly, with the introduction of thunderstorm potential paired

with the strong trough and deep low pressure system expected,

a low excessive rainfall potential should be considered. The

chance is at 5% as the WPC has us in a Marginal (1 of 4) Risk

for excessive rainfall Thursday and Thursday night. This concern

would need to be heeded if a few things happen with the

forecast. First, thunderstorm potential pans out. And second, a

more meridional trough orientation occurs, resulting in stronger

synoptic lift along the frontal boundary. For what it`s worth,

the 12Z GFS does show this scenario, resulting in a swath of 2-3

inches of rain along I-44. The 12Z ECMWF deterministic depicts

thunderstorms, but has a more southwesterly trough orientation

which keeps amounts around one inch. That said, those are just 2

of the 100 of model members. The current NBM probability of

exceeding one inch of rain is only 20-40%, so we will have to

continue to monitor to see if the trend seen in the

deterministics translates to the ensemble mean.



Lastly, if the trough assumes or more positively-tilted

orientation, this would delay its exit which could bring the

potential for additional light precipitation on the backside

cold front. This could bring either rain or snow. Once again,

though, each scenario is particularly uncertain so we will have

to monitor trends going forward.





Cooldown following the system; uncertainty in degree of cooling:



Model ensembles now agree in northwesterly flow overspreading

the area in the wake of the system (shoutout to AI ensembles for

predicting this before physical ensembles). This will result in

a general cooldown. However, potential high/low temperatures

are still very uncertain due to the notorious southwest CONUS

closed low. Models will continue to struggle with this low until

a few days before. Therefore, we can only offer a forecast of a

cooldown. But that cool down could be into the lower 50s, or

further into the middle 30s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There could

be some patchy light fog in some river valleys across the area

but not expecting any impacts at the TAF sites. Some low level

wind shear is possible tonight with gusty southerly winds

developing on Monday.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Price

LONG TERM...Price

AVIATION...Wise