National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Storms in the Upper Midwest; Heavy Rain in the Mid-Atlantic; Widespread Heat in the Southwest

Severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rain will impact portions of the Upper Midwest. A lingering front will bring another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic. Excessive heat continues in the South Plains to the Southwest, and fire weather threats remain Critical across the Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and into the Plains. Read More >


000
FXUS63 KSGF 131123
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

It was a calm and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the upper 60s and
lower 70s, under a mix of clear skies and some cloud cover.

A large cluster of thunderstorms developed over the Kansas Flint
Hills, and pretty much stayed out west through the night. Some of
the stratiform echoes has moved into the Highway 59 corridor, and
could potentially ooze into Cherokee and Crawford counties at
some point through the morning. Therefore we have some pops going
in that zone through the morning hours.

We think most locations will remain dry through today with highs
in the upper 80s and low 90s. Humidity levels will remain in check
due to drier dew points expected.

For tonight, a few showers can not be ruled out across the Osage
Plains counties. Otherwise another calm and quiet night is
expected with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

The summertime high center shifts west into Arizona by this
weekend, forcing a drier and cooler airmass into the Ozarks. The
leading edge of this front could offer a few showers and
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday, however, most locations
should remain dry this weekend with temperatures trending lower.

As a matter of fact, Sunday`s high temperatures are expected to
range mainly in the middle 80s. Overnight lows Sunday morning will
fall into the low to middle 60s.

Even cooler weather is on tap for Sunday and Monday nights with
lows falling into the 50s. Mainly dry weather is expected this
weekend and into early next work week. Our next chances for rain
could occur Tuesday night into wednesday as a shortwave
disturbance approaches from the northwest. This feature may have
limited moisture to work with given the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

Fog was ongoing over the Springfield and Branson airports this
morning creating low ceilings and IFR conditions. We think IFR and
MVFR will only last a couple hours this morning as fog should burn
shortly after sunrise.

Look for light and variable breezes today as showers and
thunderstorms mainly remain west and south of the Ozarks. We can
not rule out some isolated convection later today, however, there
is a decreasing trend with the ongoing cluster of rainfall over
eastern Kansas.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer