Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

183

FXUS63 KSGF 151948

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

248 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the area with the exception

  of south central Missouri from 12 PM Friday through 8 PM

  Monday. Daily afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105

  degrees are likely through at least Monday.



- Rain chances remain less than 30 percent until the middle of

  next week. Temperatures also look to drop back closer to

  average by the middle of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025



Through Monday: More of the same in the short term as an upper

high remains over the area. Greater mixing than what NBM has

predicted continues to lead to lower dewpoints and higher

temperatures than NBM deterministic. Have weighted the forecast

toward higher NBM percentiles (90th-95th) for temperatures and

lower (5th-10th) percentiles for dewpoints. Daily high

temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100 (highest where grass

is brown) and afternoon heat index values of 95-105 (highest

over all but south-central MO) are expected.



Could see an isolated shower or two this afternoon, but almost

all areas will remain dry. Otherwise, there is a 15-25% of

isolated showers on Saturday afternoon along and east of Hwy 65.

Sunday and Monday look dry.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025



By midweek, the upper high over the area looks to retrograde

back to the western CONUS, putting the area into more

northwesterly flow. This will back the heat off some with

potential for some cooler air to work into the are under the NW

flow.



Conditions Tuesday are less certain given potential for a

changing airmass, but at this time the NBM keeps us warm with

high sin the mid 90s to around 100 and heat index values of

100-105. May end up needing to extend the Heat Advisory to

include Tuesday if confidence increases.



Late Tuesday through Wednesday includes 20-30% PoPs as a front

moves through. For those wanting rain, amounts are not too

encouraging. NBM probability of >=0.5" is around 15-25% and even

a lower value of >0.01" is only 40-60%.



Behind the front, Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to see

temperatures closer to normal with highs in the mid 80s to low

90s and lows in the mid 60s to around 70.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025



VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF

period. There is a 15-20% probability for isolated showers and

thunderstorms at KSGF and KBBG Saturday afternoon.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-

     077>081-088>090-093>095-101>104.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Titus