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FXUS63 KSGF 030445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Isolated to scattered rain showers over the western half of the
CWA will move east across the area into this evening. It appears
models may be under estimating instability, which makes sense
given they have struggled to show how warm most areas have gotten
this afternoon. Could see some stronger storms this afternoon with
small hail and gusty winds, but not expecting severe storms.
Gusty winds ongoing at this time will diminish into this evening.

Attention then turns to greater showers and thunderstorm
probabilities later tonight into Friday night as a cold front
slowly moves through the area. Temperatures will drop behind the
front. By noon, temps will range from the 40s over the far W/NW
CWA to near 60 elsewhere. By 7pm, the NW half of the CWA will be
in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Starting the long term is Saturday with highs in the 50s and low
end chances for showers. An unsettled pattern will keep
preciptiation in the forecast off and on through the rest of the
forecast period. Temperatures will gradually warm Sunday and
Monday until highs are in the upper 70s to around 80 Tuesday and
Wednesday. No severe storms are expected at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Cloud cover over the region will continue overnight and through
the day Friday. Ceilings and visibilities will begin to fall to
MVFR and IFR Shortly before sunrise as showers and thunderstorms
begin to impact the area. The showers and storms will develop
along a cold front which will move through the area during the
morning. Winds will shift to the west behind the front with low
cloud cover continuing through the rest of the day Friday.