Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

004

FXUS63 KSGF 040540

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1140 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Low chances (15-30%) for a narrow band of light wintry mix

  becoming light snow into this evening across central

  Missouri. Low confidence in any light snow accumulations,

  generally limited to a dusting or less.



- Low chances (10-20%) for freezing drizzle south of Interstate

  44 corridor this evening into tonight, with the best chances

  across south central Missouri. Low confidence in a light

  glaze of ice and a few slick spots into Thursday morning.



- Much colder on Thursday with highs in the 30s, before a

  return to 40s through the weekend. Furthermore, confidence is

  increasing in a warming trend into next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025



Through Tonight:

A shortwave trough builds off the leeside of the Rockies today,

with a cold front surging south out of the Plains. Strong

dynamics overlay the region, with a 120-140 knot jet streak.

Moisture lifting north will clash with the front sliding south.

In this area of frontogenesis, there may be enough moisture to

squeeze out some precipitation. This introduces low PoPs

(15-30%) across the area through this evening and tonight.

Initial temperature profiles would support rain, before a

changeover to a wintry mix. However, the other side of picture

would suggest little to no coverage of precipitation through

tonight due a lack of sufficient moisture.



The most likely scenario based on the latest trends suggests a

narrow band of light wintry mix sliding through portions of the

area. This can be gleaned from the latest radar analysis,

depicting light reflectivity echos developing across central

MO. However, much of this has struggled to make it to ground so

far this afternoon, as low- level moisture remains marginal. As

we progress through the late afternoon into the evening, a

slight uptick in moisture is progged to occur, supporting PoPs

up to 30% across central and south central MO. A deeper look

would suggest light rain develops in a narrow band associated

with 700mb frontogenesis. As colder air settles into the area

and sunset occurs, a changeover to light rain to wintry mix to

all light snow would occur. Confidence remains low on the

extent of coverage and any potential accumulations. The higher

end of guidance suggest light snowfall amounts across central MO

towards a 0.5 inch, with most of the guidance around a dusting

or less. As the front sinks further south, the attention turns

towards light wintry mix becoming light drizzle/freezing

drizzle. This is generally in the area east of Highway 65 and

south of Highway 60, where low-level moisture is present in the

vicinity of no cloud ice. Thus, supporting the potential

development of areas of drizzle to freezing drizzle. The

residual time of any freezing drizzle would be short-lived, with

it falling as a very fine drizzle in terms of microphysics.

Additionally, as stratus builds down, some spotty areas of

freezing fog may develop again into south central MO. Likewise,

confidence remains low in this potential as well. However, any

light accumulations of snow or a glaze of ice could support some

slick spots, especially on elevated or untreated roadways. With

all this in mind, the extent of coverage of wintry

precipitation is expected to remain low, with most areas likely

remaining dry through tonight.



On the contrary, moisture and forcing overlap may not be enough

to overcome dry air in the low-levels. In this scenario, lower

PoPs would be warranted along a dry frontal passage.



Nonetheless, the frontal passage supports colder air building

into the area overnight, with lows in the teens (north) and

lower 20s (south). Northerly winds around 10 to 15 mph gives

way to wind chills in the single digits to teens for Thursday

morning.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025



Thursday:

Guidance suggests the stratus deck behind the front gradually

dissipates through Thursday for portions of the area, with

colder temperatures in the forecast. Highs Thursday reach into

the upper 20s (north) to middle 30s (south).



As we progress through the day, a secondary shortwave ejects

eastward into the region. The latest ensembles suppress the jet

streak further south of the area, which would suggest a shift

of precipitation axis further south. There has been a lack of

run to run, and model to model consistency with this wave. Based

on the latest, the general consensus is low PoPs (10-20%)

skirting the MO/AR border. Timing would generally be late

afternoon through the night if anything is able to materialize.

However, confidence remains low once again. Another cold night

across the area with lows in the upper teens to middle 20s.



Friday-Sunday:

As we get into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes

quasi-zonal to northwesterly. This will support a bit "warmer"

temperatures, though still 5+ degrees below normal for early

December. Highs this weekend are progged to reach into the 40s

to near 50 on Friday and Saturday, before yet another frontal

passage cools us off into Sunday. Ensembles vary on associated

precipitation chances with the frontal passage. For now, keeping

PoPs low around 15-25%.



Next Week:

Ensembles are slowly coming into better agreement on mid-level

riding building east towards the region into next week. If

confidence continues to increase in this signal, next week would

favor a return of temperatures near to above normal into the

50s. Additionally, this pattern would support a drier stretch of

weather. This aligns with the latest CPC 6 to 10 day Outlook,

with remaining uncertainty on the extent east of the ridging.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025



A band of MVFR cigs is dropping south behind a fropa that has

brought 5-10 kt northerly winds to the TAF sites. Current

observations put the cloud deck between 1200-1800 ft, but some

observation sites further east bring the deck down to 900 ft.

Guidance suggests the IFR cigs should stay east of the area,

though added a TEMPO group for SGF and BBG to account for the

possibility of some brief drops to IFR. These clouds should

begin decreasing in coverage and exiting the area between

10-15Z. There is a 10-15% chance that the stratus clouds hold on

after that timeframe for a few hours, but at this point,

coverage should be SCT, producing minimal impact to the sites.



After 00Z, winds will begin shifting clockwise to become

southerly at 3-8 kts by the end of the TAF period.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Price