Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

560

FXUS63 KSGF 081028

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

428 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gusty winds of 25-35 mph today into Sunday.



- Much colder conditions early Sunday into early Tuesday. Highs

  in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Wind chills mainly in the

  teens early Monday.



- Increasing confidence in elevated fire weather conditions on

  Tuesday, with dry and gusty conditions.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025



The system remains on track to impact the area mainly with

gusty winds and much cooler conditions. Most significant change

in the forecast with this update is increased winds tonight as

models show a tighter pressure gradient as the colder air

surges into the area. Winds were previously forecast to diminish

some tonight, but gusts to 25-35 mph are now expected.



Shortwave energy currently across the western Dakotas will move

quickly southeast today, resulting in a 1004mb surface low

moving along I-70 this afternoon. The associated cold front will

enter the northwestern CWA around noon today and should be

through the entire area by 6pm. With only a 15-20% chance for

very light rain across portions of central MO with this

activity, the main stories will be NW winds gusting to 25-35

mph along and behind the front along with significantly cooler

conditions. Gusts of 25-35 mph will then remain possible

Saturday night and Sunday as the surface low shifts east and a

strong 1037mb surface high moves into the Plains.



Temperatures will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s today prior

to the front moving through. By 6pm today, temperatures will be

in the upper 40s along/NW of I-44. Temperatures fall into the

low to mid 30s tonight into Sunday morning, then only rise into

the upper 30s to mid 40s on Sunday. Morning wind chills will be

in the low to mid 20s, increasing to the 30s mid day.



Some sprinkles/flurries will be possible late tonight into

Sunday morning as an embedded vort max moves through the area,

but no measurable precip is expected.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025



Sunday night and Monday will see a stronger piece of energy move

south out of the parent upper low currently over northern

Ontario. Ensemble guidance different on where this will track,

with the western extent bring along the eastern MO border and

the eastern extent being across Ohio. Main tangible difference

for our area is potential for stronger winds Sunday night into

monday if the western track plays out. As it stands, the

forecast features lows in the upper teens to mid 20s and wind

chills in the upper single digits to mid teens Sunday night into

Monday morning. Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the upper

30s to low 40s with mid day wind chills in the 30s.



Monday night will be the last period of the cold spell with lows

in the 20s.



Tuesday: Fire weather conditions are a concern. As the deep

upper trough quickly pushes east Monday night into Tuesday, a

surface ridge will move through and a surface trough will

approach from the NW. Wind fields will be strong on Tuesday as

much warmer low level air is advected in from the southwest.

This will be a dry airmass with minimum RH values of 20-30%,

possibly lower. Models are showing 850mb temps increasing by

15-20 C between 18Z Monday (-5 to -10C) and 18Z Tuesday

(10-15C). Winds needed to advect this airmass are currently

forecast to be from the southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 25-35

mph, but potential exists for gusts of >=40 mph (NBM V5

probabilities of 70-90%) and >=45 mph (30-50%) mainly along and

west of Hwy 65. Look for highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. If

the stronger winds and drier airmass do occur, elevated to

possibly critical fire weather conditions will be possible given

no appreciable precipitation and a dry airmass being in place

for a few days prior.



Wednesday through Friday will be back to well above normal

temperatures with highs in the 60s. No rain is in the forecast.



CPC 8-14 day outlook favors above average temperatures in the

November 15-21 period.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 426 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025



Gusty winds will occur behind a cold front that moves through

this afternoon and evening. Look for MVFR ceilings late tonight

into early Sunday with some sprinkles/flurries possible.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Titus