Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

407

FXUS63 KSGF 110605

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

105 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Fog into Saturday morning, dense across portions of the area

  (see Dense Fog Advisory for expected locations).



- Above average high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s

  and mostly dry weather forecasted into early next week.



- Forecast uncertainty increases mid-week ahead of a Pacific

  cold front.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025



A cold front pushes south through central KS, serving as a

focal point for some isolated shower development this afternoon.

It`s more of a moisture boundary than a cold front though, with

temperatures in the 80s in the clear skies behind the boundary,

and only in the upper 50s to mid 60s under the cloudy skies

ahead of it; wind shifts and dew points in the 40s are what give

the boundary away.



Showers and thunderstorms moved across the area this morning,

which developed along an isentropic boundary in an otherwise

weak-forcing regime. PW values in the 1.2-1.3" range helped

these weakly-forced storms to produce as much as 0.75" of well-

needed rain in the last 12 hours. This rain will help prime the

environment for overnight fog formation, especially in central

Missouri (along/north of I-44, but especially east of Hwy 65),

where fog could become quite dense. While afternoon crossover

temperatures are still TBD, low temperatures are forecast to

drop into the 50s tonight, which is where current dew points are

generally situated. HREF probabilities of visibility less than

a quarter mile are 40-70%; while confidence isn`t high enough to

issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this time, confidence isn`t low enough

to rule out the need for one during the overnight hours

tonight.



Spotty shower re-development and/or drizzle may be possible

this evening, primarily in the eastern Ozarks (east of Hwy 63)

where PoPs are 15-25% into the early overnight hours, but PoPs

remain slightly elevated (10-15%) south of Hwy 60 as well.

Thunder/lightning is not expected to accompany any potential

evening showers.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025



Warm, above-normal temperatures from the upper 70s to mid-80s

will occur this weekend beneath a building upper-level ridge. A

low pressure system that is currently barreling into the

Cascades will attempt to undercut the building ridge in the

central US, with a Pacific cold front surging ahead of it.

Questions still remain on when the cold front will scrape the

central CONUS and whether it will even reach our area, but most

long-range guidance suggest at least one (maybe more) shortwave

ejecting off the parent trough, which would increase the

chances of the weather pattern in the Ozarks being disrupted.



The first shortwave is progged to approach the area Sunday

night (give or take), which increases our PoPs in the far

western fringes of the area to 15-30%. This coincides with a

tightening of the surface pressure gradient, bringing some gusty

winds up to 25 mph on Sunday. Sunday afternoon RHs are

currently expected to drop into the 35-50% range, so some

limited fire weather risk could occur in areas with excessively

dried fuels.



NBM PoPs stay low for the remainder of the week, but NBM has

increased limitations in transition seasons and weak forcing

regimes; additionally, deterministic NBM temperatures are

falling outside the IQR Monday and beyond for some portions of

our area. With increased spread for that period as well,

can`t say with certainty that there won`t be weakly-forced

showers after Monday that the NBM just can`t resolve at this

time scale (and gut feeling says there might be), but confidence

in occurrence isn`t high enough to add increased PoPs at this

time.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025



Fog (dense at times) is areas being observed at KSGF. Fog

should continue to thicken through the night and persist into

mid-morning on Saturday. This will eventually impact KBBG, too,

but with less confidence on the extent. KJLN is southwest of

where fog is expected, but will need to be monitored. After fog

burns off Saturday morning, VFR conditions will then be

observed.





&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-

     066>070-077>082-088>092-094-095-102-103.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Camden

LONG TERM...Camden

AVIATION...Titus