973

FXUS63 KSGF 211958

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

158 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few shower may linger across central Missouri this

  afternoon. Most locations will remain dry however.



- A few areas of dense fog may develop, mainly in valleys or low

  lying areas, with visibilities around a mile or less at times

  Saturday night.



- Widespread rain chances (60-90%) return Sunday night through

  Monday. Exact timing and amounts will continue to fluctuate

  due to some model uncertainty with this next system.



- Increasing confidence in below average temperatures by mid

  next week into Thanksgiving, and continuing into next

  weekend. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1210 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025



A surface low was essentially directly over the Ozarks early

this afternoon. This has allowed for some clearing in cloud

cover over a good portion of the region. Where clear skies and

sunshine was occurring allowed temperatures to climb into the

lower 70s. Where clouds lingered temperatures were in the lower

to middle 60s and isolated showers were occurring.



The area of low pressure will continue to make its way to the

east through today and tonight with cloud cover returning on the

back side of the low with colder air moving into the region.

There may be a stray shower or two with this activity but

coverage will be limited.



A few of the CAMS models as indicating the potential for fog to

develop again overnight. Confidence is on the low side with the

better potential for a low 200-400ft stratus deck occuring. If

fog does develop, it would be in valleys or where stratus build

down can occur. Overnight lows will be cooler in the 40s as

cooler air filters into the region.



Winds will begin to pick up through the overnight into Saturday

morning as well as high pressure enters the plains and a

tightening surface pressure gradient develops across the Ozarks.

Some locations could see winds Gus from 15 to 20 mph.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1210 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025



Saturday into Monday: The start to the weekend will be

seasonably cool with highs in the middle to upper 50s, thanks

to ongoing cold air advection, behind the departing low with

cool surface high pressure moving over the region by Saturday

night. A short wave ridge will move across the plains and the

Ozarks Sunday with surface high pressure, ample sunshine and

light winds allowing for a rather nice day with this in the

lower to middle 60s.



The ridge will be short lived however as the next storm system

will be lifting out of the southwestern CONUS and into the

plains Sunday evening. This system will bring the next round of

rainfall to Ozarks which is becoming better handled by the

synoptic and ensemble models. The better potential for rain at

this time is expected to be along and south of I-44 based on the

NBM and synoptic model outputs. This axis of better rain can

still shift over the next few days. The system Sunday night into

Monday is expected to bring more rain, as much as an inch n

some areas. Though some areas received as much as 3 inches over

the past 24-36 hours, this next systems rain is not expected to

cause any more flooding than this past system did, despite the

ground for most of the Ozarks getting a decent soaking.



Tuesday into Thanksgiving: After what will likely be the

warmest day next week (Sunday) the storm system that will bring

rain Monday will lift towards the Great Lakes through the day

Tuesday. As this occurs, a ridge will be lifting over the west

coast and Rockies producing northwesterly flow aloft. With this,

A cold airmass will see essentially unrestricted flow into the

center of the Country Tuesday into Thanksgiving. Highs for the

middle of the week will likely loiter around the middle 50s to

lower 60s. By Thanksgiving Day highs will be in the middle 40s

to around the 50 degree mark.



Next Friday into Next Weekend: Some of the models, including

the EOF shift of tails continue to show the potential for

temperatures even cooler than the current forecast. A few of the

models show potential highs from Thanksgiving Day into the

following weekend in the middle to upper 30s for highs. These

10th percentile readings remain outliers but they have been

consistent and something that bear watching.



Either way, next week may seem more seasonable than the last

week or so as several indicies are pointing to a significant

cool down by the end of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025



Surface low pressure was moving over the region pulling cloud

cover and rain north of the area. While clouds will thin or

break through this afternoon, as the low moves east, clouds

will return on the back side of the low with MVFR to IFR

ceilings returning by late this evening into Saturday morning.



Where clouds don`t fill in, patchy fog may develop though

confidence in this occurring is low.



Surface winds will be gusty through this afternoon before

dropping off as the low moves east of the region tonight. Winds

will shift from southerly to northerly as well in association

with the lows movement.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Hatch