Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

701

FXUS63 KSGF 270017

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

717 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the

  weekend (generally 15-40% chance) mainly in the afternoon

  hours. Highest and most widespread chances (40-60%) occurs

  Saturday. There will be extended dry periods and not all

  locations will be affected each day.



- A few afternoon storms Today and Saturday could produce

  lightning, brief heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 50 mph.



- There is a 60-80% chance for a return to above normal

  temperatures next week, lasting into early August. Heat index

  values will likely climb above 100 degrees next week. Rain

  chances remain below 30 percent next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis continues to show a rather complex pattern with

upper level energy organizing just south of the area across

Arkansas with several small pieces of energy rotating around it.

This upper energy was caught in between a ridge out west and

another ridge across the southeast US. A combination of

shortwave energy, a weak front nearby and low level moisture has

allowed for a few showers and storms to develop east of

Springfield. 12Z KSGF sounding still showed significant dry air

above 600mb therefore storms have struggled to get tall enough

to produce any downbursts or significant amounts of lightning

however a few lightning strikes have been observed in Shannon

and Oregon Counties where higher moisture resides.



This Afternoon through Tonight: With additional heating and

incoming moisture, we should see a few more showers and storms

develop through the afternoon. Chances remain less than 30

percent and mainly confined to areas along and east of Highway

65. While not particularly likely, if a storm can get tall

enough then it could briefly produce downburst winds to 50mph,

lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Storm motions will be slow

and generally following a more uncommon east to west movement.

Outside of storms, it will be warm and humid with highs in the

upper 80s. Storms should diminish with the loss of daytime

heating this evening.



Saturday: Upper level energy across Arkansas will begin to lift

north into the area during the day. An increase in moisture will

also occur with PW values increasing to 1.5-1.7in. High res

guidance is insistent in developing scattered showers and

thunderstorms beginning as early as mid morning and continuing

off and on during the day. Highest chances (near 60%) will be

east of Highway 65. Significant amount of clouds/precip will

limit instability therefore while a few thunderstorms will

occur, we are not seeing a signal for pulse severe storms at

this time. Given the higher PW`s and slow storm motions, locally

heavy rainfall will occur with the stronger cells and the

latest HREF data shows small pockets of up to 1 inch of

rainfall in localized areas. However most areas will see less

than 0.50 inch. Clouds/precip will likely keep temps much lower

than normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highest

readings will occur west of Springfield where rain chances are

less.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024



Sunday: The shortwave will begin its trek east on

Sunday with precip chances east of Highway 65 during the

afternoon. Areas west of Highway 65 will see more sunshine with

highs climbing back towards 90.



Monday through Thursday: Ensembles continue to be in agreement

that the mid level ridge out west will build into the central

and southern plains next week. Mean 850mb temps look to climb

into the 23-25C range which local climatology studies would

suggest median high temps in the middle 90s with the 75th

percentile of climatology closer to 100. While some areas are

drying out, many still have green vegetation which should keep

temps closer to those middle 90s. It should be noted that the

deterministic NBM numbers are right around the 90th percentile

therefore highs could be a few degrees cooler (especially west

of Springfield, closer to the middle 90s). Dewpoints will be on

the increase with readings in the lower to middle 70s

returning. Latest ensemble probs continue to suggest a 50-70%

chance of heat index values of 100 degrees or higher beginning

Monday, lasting through at least Thursday with the highest

chances west of Springfield. Heat Advisories could make a return

next week if this trend continues.



One fly in the ointment is that since the ridge will not be

directly overhead, we will still need to monitor for any systems

that can slide close enough to the area from the northwest.

Ensemble cluster means are beginning to show some precip

potential across northern, central and eastern Missouri

therefore will need to monitor to see if any systems can creep

into the area. This would have an impact on temps and excessive

heat. However given the uncertainty, precip chances remain below

30 percent for next week.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024



KSGF:

A thunderstorm developed over the airport, with another stronger

thunderstorm moving towards the airport from the east at the top

of the TAF period. Prevailing winds are light, but gusts of

25-35kts can be expected as thunderstorms impact the airport and

multiple outflow boundaries collide in the vicinity over the

next hour or two. These storms are not particularly tall, so

they are expected to fall apart after moving west of the TAF

site. Overnight, ceilings will lower into the MVFR range before

improving to VFR Saturday morning ahead of afternoon

thunderstorms. Southeast winds prevail through the TAF period.



KJLN:

JLN should avoid the bulk of the impactful activity in the

Ozarks through the TAF period, with mid-level cloud decks,

southeasterly winds, and VFR conditions prevailing.



KBBG:

Complex forecast with many nuances over the next 24 hours.

Westward-moving storms to the east will likely fall apart before

reaching the TAF site, but outflow from these storms could kick

up gusty winds to 30kts as they impact the airport early in the

TAF period. After storms dissipate, the overnight hours will

have calm winds and decreasing cloud decks, with visibilities

expected to reduce in the hours leading up to sunrise. The

severity of the visibility reduction (and resulting flight

category degradation) is still up in the air, but was included

with consideration of the quarter-mile visibility observed on

Friday morning within a persistence forecast context. After

visibilities improve to VFR briefly in the late morning

Saturday, thunderstorms with broad coverage will return and

impact BBG on Saturday afternoon.





&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Camden