Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

559

FXUS63 KSGF 300813

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

313 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Elevated fire weather conditions today and Tuesday. Relative

  humidity values will be in the 30-40% range with wind gusts up

  to 40 mph today.



- A large warm up occurs again today and Tuesday with near

  record breaking temperatures. Windy conditions are expected

  today and Tuesday.



- An active pattern builds into the region by the middle of the

  week into the weekend featuring daily rain and thunderstorm

  chances.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026



Surface low pressure will continue to move northeast across the

central Plains today. Ahead of the trough the pressure gradient

will tighten across the region. South to southwesterly winds

will occur today with winds to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30

to 40 mph at times. Sunny skies and a warm air mass will also be

in place today as highs will warm into the middle 80s this

afternoon. These temperatures will approach record levels, see

climate section below for more details on record highs for

today. A drier air mass will remain in place across the area

today as afternoon humidity values will drop into the 30 to 40%

range with some upper 20% possible in the eastern Ozarks. These

dry conditions combined with the gusty winds will lead to an

elevated fire risk this afternoon.



The Surface low will remain over the central plains tonight into

Tuesday and will start to move to the south on Tuesday

afternoon. An associated cold front will also will move south

across northern Missouri on Tuesday but will remain north of the

area through the much of the day. The warm air mass will remain

in place as highs warm into the lower to middle 80s Tuesday

afternoon. Gusty south to southwesterly winds will occur again

on Tuesday with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph again. The dry air

mass will again be in place as RH values drop to 30 to 40% in

the afternoon with some upper 20% possible in the eastern

Ozarks. These dry and windy conditions will once again lead to

an elevated fire danger on Tuesday.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026



Showers and storms will develop along the front north of the

area on Tuesday. The front will start to sag south across

northern Missouri but will likely stall across central Missouri.

Showers and storms will be likely along and just south of the

front across central Missouri. Just how far south is in

question, they may mainly remain along and north of Highway 54,

but if they can get a cold pool they could make it further south

into the area. Instability will be more limited so no severe

weather is expected.



An upper level trough will move into the central Plains on

Wednesday and will push the front more to the north. Highs will

warm into the middle 70s to the middle 80s Wednesday afternoon.

There could be some lingering rain across at least the northern

portions of the area Wednesday morning but will lift north

through the day. As the trough moves east a cold front will move

across the central Plains into the area Wednesday night.

Instability will increase across the area ahead of the front. A

line of showers and storms will likely develop and move east

into the area maybe as early as late Wednesday afternoon but

more likely Wednesday evening and night. Instability will

support the potential for some strong to severe storms mainly

across the western portions of the area with hail and wind the

main risk. The front will likely stall over the area Thursday

and lift back to the northwest Thursday night and Friday, as the

shortwave trough moves to the northeast and another trough

moves east across the western U.S. on Thursday. Shower and storm

chances will linger across the area on Thursday with the front

and upper level shortwave over the area.  As this trough moves

east the front will move back to the east and through the area

Friday evening into Saturday morning. Additional showers and

storms will be possible along the front, and there could again

be the potential for some strong storms with this activity.

There could be some locally heavy rainfall with these rounds of

rain. Cooler temperatures, highs in the 50s and 60s and drier

weather will occur behind the front this weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026



VFR conditions will occur across the area today under clear

skies. Some high clouds may start to build into the area late in

the TAF period. South to southeasterly winds will occur through

the early morning hours and will be gusty at times across

western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. Winds will

increase some and remaining gusty out of the south to southwest

this morning into the evening hours. Low level wind shear will

also be possible through the rest of early morning hours.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026





Record High Temperatures:



Monday March 30:

KSGF: 82/1963  Forecast: 84

KJLN: 84/1904  Forecast: 84

KVIH: 80/1978  Forecast: 84

KUNO: 82/1968  Forecast: 82



Tuesday March 31:

KSGF: 87/1974  Forecast: 83

KVIH: 84/2010  Forecast: 83

KUNO: 85/1981  Forecast: 83





Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:



Tuesday March 31:

KSGF: 62/1967  Forecast: 63

KJLN: 65/1967  Forecast: 66

KVIH: 61/1967  Forecast: 64

KUNO: 58/1967  Forecast: 60



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Wise

CLIMATE...Lindenberg