Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

759

FXUS63 KSGF 202359

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

659 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) severe risk late tonight into Sunday

  morning for an area northwest of I-44. The primary risk is

  damaging wind gusts.



- Slight (Level 2 of 5) severe risk Sunday afternoon through

  Sunday night across the entire area. Primary risks are large

  hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary risk for a few

  tornadoes.



- A Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Excessive

  Rainfall risk Sunday morning through Monday morning. A Flood

  Watch is in effect from 1 AM Sunday morning through 7 AM

  Monday morning.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



BLUF:

There will be a roughly 24 hour window of severe thunderstorm

potential across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas from

Sunday morning through early Monday morning. The highest

confidence in severe weather is during the late afternoon and

evening period across central Missouri. With the potential for

several rounds of storms, a flash flood risk is also apparent.



Sunday Morning:

An upper-level shortwave across the northern Plains has helped

to initiate convection across eastern Nebraska early this

afternoon. This activity will expand into an MCS and dive east-

southeast along a warm front through Iowa and northern Missouri

throughout the evening and overnight. Depending on the exact

positioning of the front, locations along and north of Highway

54 may be clipped by this MCS Sunday morning. Models remain

quite variable in how they handle the southern flank of the MCS

and how much (if any) convection develops along the trailing

cold front/trough that extends southward from the parent low

through the Plains. MPAS models tend to be the most bullish and

bringing a line of convection into southeast Kansas and

southwest Missouri, while others tend to dissipate this activity

as it outruns the 850 mb jet and higher instability. If storms

are able to remained organized, a marginal wind threat may

exist, mainly for locations across far western Missouri and

eastern Kansas.



Sunday Afternoon and Evening:

Models shows a general weakening of convection from the

overnight MCS Sunday morning. Exactly where showers and storms

track, how quickly (or if) they dissipate, and how much coverage

lingers will affect how much thermodynamic recovery can occur

during the day and where the afternoon/ evening risk will

manifest. One or several outflow boundaries will likely exist

across central Missouri, which will act as the focus for

convective initiation once again. Given steep forecast mid-

level lapse rates and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear,

supercells capable of producing hail to golf balls, 60-70 mph

wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Wherever

initiation occurs, storms will translate to the southeast during

the afternoon and evening as the aforementioned surface low

shifts east and drags its attendant cold front through southwest

Missouri and southeast Kansas.



Sunday Night:

Global models depict another shortwave impulse diving southeast

through the Plains Sunday night into early Monday morning. This

wave could help reinvigorate convection along the front before

it clears the Missouri/Arkansas border and introduce a lingering

severe thunderstorm risk across southern Missouri. Of course,

this threat actually coming together is dependent upon a number

of prior convective occurrences and mesoscale interactions, so

confidence remains low at this time.



Flash Flood Risk through Sunday:

The strong 850 mb jet across eastern Kansas will pump moisture

into the region ahead of the front during the day Sunday, which

will allow for efficient rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr within the

strongest storms. Model QPF continues to vary quite

significantly in the placement of highest rainfall amounts given

the multitude of solutions in convective evolution throughout

the day. As such, it is difficult to discriminate the flash

flood potential across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas,

but given the saturated antecedent conditions from recent

rainfall, any location that experiences training thunderstorms

will be susceptible to flash flooding. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3

inches will be common, with localized amounts up to 5 inches.

Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for the entire forecast

area from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Ensemble clusters depict general agreement in building an

upper-level ridge across the western CONUS next week, leaving

the Missouri Ozarks under northwest flow aloft with a stalled

frontal boundary draped somewhere across Arkansas. Overall, this

pattern will allow for more dry time than not throughout the

week. Deterministic global models do suggest some weakly forced

convection may be possible each day with the passing of

transient shortwave impulses as evidenced by NBM PoPs of 25-50%,

but these chances will moreso be near-term forecast challenges

that will have to be better assessed in future forecast

updates.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Scattered fair weather cumulus will continue to move across the

region into this evening and tonight. This will have no impacts

on aviation concerns. A storm complex in the Plains will move

east and approach the Ozarks by Sunday morning with the

potential for showers and storms from 12 to 14z on. Where storms

occur, flight conditions may drop to MVFR.



Surface winds will be light and southerly tonight and become

westerly and gusty by Sunday morning and continue into Sunday

evening.Additional showers and storms will be possible into

Sunday evening.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Monday morning for

     KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Monday morning for

     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Hatch