Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

509

FXUS63 KSGF 091821

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

121 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High confidence in well above average temperatures through

  Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80. Potential

  for record highs Tuesday.



- Widespread 80-100% thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night

  into Wednesday with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather.

  Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts, with lower confidence

  in large hail and tornadoes. Additional potential for heavy

  rainfall and localized flooding.



- Cooler behind the frontal passage mid-week, with a warming

  trend into next weekend accompanied by a drier stretch of

  weather.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026



Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper

air analysis shows a broad zonal flow over the area however

there was a weak vort max moving through Oklahoma. A cut off low

was still south of California. Increasing southwest flow aloft

was bringing in very warm air with the 12z KSGF sounding

measuring a 850mb temp of 17C which is well above average for

early March. This warm air aloft will also establish a capping

inversion which will play a role in storm development over the

next day or two. The weak vort moving through Oklahoma does have

some cloud cover for areas south of I-44 however rain chances

look to primarily remain south of the area through the

afternoon. Temps as of early afternoon were already in the 70s

with dews in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Gusty southwest winds

were also occuring with occasional gusts around 30mph



Well Above Normal/Near Record Temperatures through Tuesday: With

several hours of heating left, temps should reach the middle to

upper 70s over the area today with a location or two touching 80

degrees. Overnight, cloud cover will increase and combined with

a steady south wind, temps will likely remain well above

average (lower 60s). This will set us up for a very warm/near

record day on Tuesday. Guidance continues to show the upper low

moving into the southwest US through the day. Cloud cover will

increase however model soundings continue to show a strong

capping inversion in place. This will likely keep the area dry

and very warm. Latest short term guidance is in strong agreement

in highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s which could tie or

break some records. See the climate section below for the

numbers.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026



Severe Thunderstorm and Flooding Potential Tuesday

Night/Wednesday: A rather complex scenario seems to be showing

itself for Tuesday night. Not only does the upper low eject out

into OK/TX, but additional energy swings through the northern

plains. Therefore two main sources of upper level lift will be

approaching the area. A surface front looks to set up from

central Kansas into northern Missouri by Tuesday evening. A dry

line then will set up across western OK into Texas.



Latest forecast soundings and HREF guidance continues to show an

unstable but strongly capped environment over the area even into

the early evening hours Tuesday. The HRW NSSL and HRW ARW do

show a few showers/storms trying to form in the warm sector

across south central Missouri Tuesday evening however there is

low confidence in this occuring given the lack of forcing/strong

capping inversion.



Of greater confidence is that there will be two areas of

thunderstorm focus from 6pm to 12am. One area will be along the

front from central Kansas into central and northern Missouri

along the front. These storms will have supercell potential with

all hazards (tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds).

Latest HREF paintball plots suggest this will remain north of

the area however we will need to watch St Clair, Benton and

Morgan counties for any storms to clip these areas. The other

area of storm focus will be storms that can congeal off the dry

line and move into central Oklahoma and then into northwest

Arkansas. These are the storms that may have the greatest chance

of reaching southern Missouri after midnight. Damaging winds

and large hail would be the most likely hazards with this

activity.



The cold front looks to move through the area around sunrise

Wednesday and time of day is also a limiting factor for severe

development. Bottom line, there remains a severe threat across

the area however it remains conditional on which if any round

makes it into the area or if we just get stuck in between. This

also impacts rainfall amounts as the latest HREF and NBM are

highlighting a decreasing trend in rainfall amounts back into

the 0.25 to locally 1 inch range. Currently the area to watch

for locally heavy rainfall is areas southeast of Springfield

where/if that activity moves up from OK/AR. Localized flooding

could occur with this activity if its heavy enough. We will

continue to monitor latest trends and update precip chance

forecasts with incoming data.



Cooler Wednesday then dry/warm to end the week: Cold air

advection is likely on Wednesday behind the front with early

morning highs then falling into the 50s during the day with

gusty northwest winds. Dry northwest flow then develops Thursday

through Saturday with highs slowly climbing each day. Temps will

likely climb back into the 70s Friday and Saturday. Dry

conditions are expected.



Pattern Change Late Weekend: Ensembles continue to suggest that

a batch of cold air will drop into the northern and potentially

central US by late weekend into early next week. This could send

below normal temps to the area with our next chance for

precipitation.





&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026



There will be some passing low level cumulus this afternoon with

MVFR ceilings at times for BBG. Clouds will increase overnight

into Tuesday morning however VFR conditions should prevail.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon out of the southwest with

gusts approaching 30kts at times. Winds will decrease tonight

with an increase again on Tuesday. Low level wind shear is

likely at the sites Tuesday morning. The chance of rain remains

below 30 percent through the TAF period.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026





Record High Temperatures:



March 9:

KSGF: 81/1974

KJLN: 81/2017

KVIH: 78/1974



March 10:

KSGF: 80/1955

KJLN: 82/1972

KVIH: 85/1955

KUNO: 82/1995



March 14:

KSGF: 82/1971

KJLN: 80/2002





&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Burchfield

CLIMATE...Burchfield