Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KSGF 241740
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Strong warm air advection with a low level jet along with a
moisture axis over the area was producing rain showers across the
area from this evening to current time. The showers were
progressing eastward across the forecast area as the moisture axis
shifts eastward and was mainly over the eastern half of the CWA as
of 08z. Temperatures were fairly steady or slowly rising and were
above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. May encounter a few
pockets of sleet where the dewpoints were a still a bit lower in
the eastern Ozarks at the onset of the area of showers.

Broad southwesterly flow was occurring out ahead of a deep trough
and closed low over southern California and a developing surface
frontal system over the central and southern plains. An inverted
trough of low pressure extended northeast of the low into south
central KS into northwest MO. A large shield of stratus will be
moving into the area today behind the showers which should mainly
be east of the area by 12z. Main precipitation type the remainder
of the morning should be drizzle. With the cloud cover expected
today, the only source of warming will be with low level warm
advection and we could still see temperatures reach the low to mid
50s over southern MO with mid 40s in central MO.

A surge of moisture along with strong synoptic scale lifting with
low level and upper level jet interactions will begin this evening
and continue into Monday morning. Instability will increase over
southern MO where embedded thunderstorms will be possible along
with some small hail. Heavy rainfall will be the main risk tonight
and this risk has expanded northward. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain will
be possible along and south of the I-44 corridor with 1 to 1.5
inches of rain northwest of the corridor. Given the time of year
and lack of vegetation, some localized flooding will be possible,
mainly in low lying areas across southern Missouri. Temperatures
will remain warm enough in the upper 30s to mid 40s to where
precipitation will remain all rain.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

The strong low pressure system is expected to track northeast
across southeast Kansas into west central Missouri on Monday, with
a dry slot pushing northeast across southwest portions of the area
during the morning. This will shift the precipitation axis further
east as the morning progresses. The colder air behind the low
won`t start making it into the area until late in the day and
Monday night when the low begins to track eastward, but the
precipitation will primarily be over for the CWA, with the rain
having moved east of the area and the snow staying north of the
area. No winter impacts area expected with this system for the
CWA. Highs on Monday will range from the low 50s to mid 60s, with
lows Monday night from the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Another upper level wave will begin to push into the central U.S.
on Tuesday and into our forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. It looks like this system will begin as some light
snow, before transitioning to rain during the afternoon on
Wednesday. Only light snow amounts are expected at this time with
less than an inch of accumulation.

Upper level ridging builds into the area by the later portion of
the work week and we should see temperatures rise back into the
upper 40s to mid 50s by Friday.

Another upper level system will begin to move into the area on
Saturday providing the next rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

IFR to LIFR conditions will effect the area this afternoon into
Monday through the entire TAF period.

Light fog and and low level stratus deck will occur this
afternoon, there could be some drizzle at times.

This evening as a system approaches from the west showers will
develop and affect the area this evening into Monday. Moderate to
heavy rain will be possible at times. A few storms will also be
possible across southern Missouri, a few could be capable of
producing small hail. Do to the more limited coverage of the
storms have not included a mention of thunder in the TAFs at this
time, just showers as coverage will be widespread for the showers
with embedded thunder.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise