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FXUS63 KSGF 191126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
626 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Two areas of showers and thunderstorms continue to move across
the region this morning. First, an area of activity across the
eastern half of the CWA continues to push off towards the east
posing no hazardous threats. The second area of interest through
the early morning hours is associated with a convergent boundary
across southeastern Kansas. This boundary in conjunction with
moist advection from the Southern Plains poses a short term flash
flooding threat as storms continue to train into far southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. There is a strong focus on
potential flash flooding in this area as rainfall over the past
week has resulted in highly saturated soil. This threat will
continue to be monitored through the early morning hours.

As overnight activity comes to end by mid morning, a rather strong
shortwave begins to translate across the Central Plains into the
Middle Mississippi Valley. This shortwave energy will result in a
surface low tracking across the Interstate 70 corridor through the
early afternoon hours. The current trends of CAM models suggest
storms will fire along a cold front boundary by the mid afternoon
hours. At this time, the environmental setup looks favorable for
several scattered strong to severe storms with the greatest risk
along and southeast of Interstate 44. A key factor in the
environmental setup will be daytime heating allowing an unstable
atmosphere to develop across the region as temperatures climb into
the upper 70s to lower 80s across the Ozarks. Current models
suggest MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and low-level moisture
will advance out ahead of the frontal boundary. Additionally,
adequate shear ranging from 30-35 knots supports organized updraft
development. Given this setup, thunderstorm development will be
multicellular in nature posing a wind and hail risk. The threat
for these scattered strong to severe storms will exist from early
afternoon across the western CWA through the early evening hours
across the eastern half of the CWA. Lastly, it should be noted
that there is marginal risk for excessive rainfall with these
storms given the efficiency to produce heavy downpours, especially
in areas that have already seen sufficient rainfall this week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Looking ahead to Thursday, rising heights and a building ridge to
our east will result in drier and warmer weather. By Friday into
Saturday high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower
90s across the Ozarks. In addition to the warmer temperatures,
dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s will be a prime recipe for
sticky weather across the Ozarks with heat indicies pushing into
the upper 90s. As we settle into a southwest flow pattern by
Saturday, a few lobes of vorticity will translate through the
central CONUS bringing a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday, and once again on Monday.
Model continue to differ on exact solutions, thus vary on timing
and location of potential rainfall into early next week.

As the large scale trough transitions across the central CONUS
early next week there may be additional concerns for flooding
potential, but need to be evaluated further in future forecasts.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

An area of showers and thunderstorms were moving through southwest
Missouri early this morning, with the biggest affect the next few
hours at the KBBG TAF site. There should be a break in the
activity by mid morning, but a frontal boundary will push through
the terminals this afternoon. This may spark some additional
showers/storms, especially at KBBG and KSGF through about 00Z
today. Winds will also come around to a westerly direction this
afternoon and evening. Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected,
with lower MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings/visibilities within and
near any storms.