Area Forecast Discussion

Clipper to Bring Light Snow; Gulf Storm to Bring Heavy Rain

Light snow accumulations are expected through Sunday from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic as a clipper storm dives across the northern U.S. A storm is forecast to develop across the western Gulf of Mexico and track across Florida Monday into Tuesday with gusty winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms. Read More >

000
FXUS63 KSGF 231110
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
510 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Key Messages:

1. Another wave of cold air for the middle of next week. Single
digit wind chills possible. Otherwise no significant impacts
through the next seven days.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 135 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Today: Southern areas of the CWA will see warmer temperatures
than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 40s. A cold front
along with increased cloud cover and a colder airmass will result
in highs in the upper 30s to low 40s over northern portions of the
area. Dry air will prevent any precip from occuring.

Tonight: Lows will range from the low 20s east to the low 30s
west under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Impact summary: Only impactful weather in the long term will be
some minor wind chill concerns early Tuesday and early Wednesday,
but values will be well warmer than Wind Chill Advisory criteria.
The forecast is dry through the long term.

Monday: A cold front looks to move into the area on Monday, which
is trending earlier than previously expected. This has resulted
in dropping temperatures a little over the northern CWA for
Monday. Even so, highs are forecast to range from the low 50s
north to the upper 50s south.

Monday night through Wednesday: This period will be the coldest
part of the next 7 days. Lows Monday night will range from the
mid teens north to the mid 20s south with some single digit wind
chills possible north. Highs Tuesday are forecast to range from
the mid 20s north to the upper 30s south, with Wednesday being 2-3
degrees warmer. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is forecast to
see lows in the single digits across central Mo to the teens
elsewhere with single digit wind chills possible areawide (albeit
with fairly light winds).

Thursday into the weekend: Generally warmer conditions are
expected with highs in the 40s Thursday, a bit cooler in the mid
30s to low 40s Friday, then in the 40s to low 50s Saturday. That
being said, there is increased spread in temperature guidance so
confidence in exact values is limited.

1-2 week outlook (Jan 30-Feb 5):

CPC 8-14 day outlook shows above normal precipitation, which
agrees quite well with GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles that all
show positive precipitation anomalies. CPC and ensembles favor
the southeastern CWA with highest anomalies. Overall, the pattern
looks more active with greater access to moisture than are seeing
this coming week.

The CPC outlook shows near normal for temperature potential,
although the ensemble data favors slightly negative anomalies over
the entire 7 days. However, shorter term ensemble anomalies (and
investigation of the overall pattern) show periods of
more substantial positive and negative anomalies that get averaged
out in the 7 day averages. Particularly, early in the week
anomalies look more negative, followed by positive in the middle
of the week, then back to negative late in the week.

We will have to see how how all the ingredients come together.
Some wintry precipitation may be possible, but obviously it is too
early to have any confidence in details of such.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 508 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

A cold front will move through today, leading to a wind switch to
the northwest. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus