Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

959

FXUS63 KSGF 092355

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

555 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Coldest air of the Autumn season tonight with lows in the

  teens to low 20s.



- Wind chills tonight in the single digits to teens and on

  Monday night in the teens to mid 20s.



- A warmup begins on Tuesday with 60s and 70s expected for

  Wednesday into Saturday.



- Elevated fire weather on Tuesday afternoon with windy

  conditions and a dry air mass.



- Rain chances over the weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025



Upper level analysis and current conditions: A high amplitude

upper ridge has shifted inland from the west coast yesterday and

into the great basin and intermountain west. East of the ridge

axis was a deep trough from eastern Ontario through the

Mississippi valley. The surface cold front which moved through

yesterday has pushed all the way into the Gulf to our south as

an Arctic air mass plunges into the region. Gusty northwest

winds and strong low level cold advection were occurring across

the area and were limiting temperatures in the 30s and low 40s.

The main stratus deck shifted south of the area which has helped

temperatures rise a bit, with a few stratocumulus remaining

behind the main stratus deck.



Cold temperatures and wind chills tonight into Monday: Models

are in excellent agreement in the short term, bringing the

center of the Arctic air mass into the central plains tonight.

Dry air will provide for a clear sky, but with the surface high

to our west, the winds will remain steady around 10 to 15 mph

tonight in open areas. The coldest air of the Autumn season so

far is expected with lows from the upper teens to low 20s. Wind

chills will be in the single digits to teens late tonight into

early Monday morning. Despite plenty of sunshine on Monday,

highs are only expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s for

highs. The center of the surface high pressure will shift to our

south with the ridge axis over the area.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025



Another cold night Monday night: The upper trough will shift

east into the northeast and mid Atlantic states and we should

see some rising upper heights. Low level warm advection will

begin as well with a southerly surface wind and 850mb winds from

the southwest to west. We`re still looking at lows in our

eastern CWA near 20 with some warmer conditions in the west in

the mid to upper 20s.  Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s.



Warm-up starts on Tuesday and continues into Saturday: The below

normal temperatures will be short-lived with temperatures

rebounding into the mid 50s to low 60s on Tuesday with the dry

air mass and strong low level warm advection. Upper level

ridging will nudge east throughout the week and we`ll continue

the low level warm advection with temperatures warming into the

60s through the entire area on Wednesday, into the 60s to low

70s by Thursday, and in the 70s across the CWA by Friday and

Saturday.



Elevated fire weather on Tuesday: It is looking more likely for

some patches of elevated fire weather in our area on Tuesday

afternoon as winds gust over 30 mph and RH values dip into the

30s and 40s Tuesday afternoon.



Rain chances over the weekend: There are some pretty significant

model differences with how the upper level wave out west

evolves. In the deterministic models, the GFS keeps one main

closed low and bring it negatively tilted into the central

plains on Saturday, while the Canadian the ECMWF have more of a

split trough with the Canadian more bullish on closing of a low

in the southern stream portion earlier on. All 3 eventually have

a closed low over the area by Sunday. Ensemble means show a

stronger trough with the GEFS and is quicker to break out

precipitation than the ENS. Will have to monitor model trends

through the week for thunderstorm chances over the weekend, but

it is looking more likely, especially from late Saturday into

Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 549 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025



VFR through the period with gusty northwesterly winds up to 20

knots overnight. Winds stay elevated through Monday at around 15

knots. Skies will remain clear.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg

LONG TERM...Lindenberg

AVIATION...Soria