Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

163

FXUS63 KSGF 301902

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

202 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Flood Watch continues through 7 AM Thursday with another round

  of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.



- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue during the day

  Thursday. Therefore, any lingering flood impacts may continue

  for areas receiving more heavy rainfall.







&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025



Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and

upper level analysis show a large scale trough shifting into the

central and southern plains, and another shortwave trough

shifting southeast across Montana and northwest Wyoming.

Regional radar shows a thunderstorm complex over eastern

Oklahoma into Texas shifting east northeast, with the northern

edge of precipitation shifting into southwest Missouri. A

stationary boundary was located along the MO/AR border.

Temperatures were ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s with the

warmer conditions in areas across southern Missouri which have

broken out of the cloud cover.



Rest of this afternoon into tonight: The thunderstorm complex

should continue shifting east-northeast with the northern

portions of this pushing across mostly southern Missouri within

our CWA. Some instability has crept into far southern Missouri

and will need to monitor this area for potential strong to

severe wind gusts. Can`t entirely rule out a brief spin-up

tornado given near the surface front. The better severe weather

chances will occur further south of the CWA within a higher area

of instability. CAMS shift the majority of this convection to

the east of the CWA by 04-06z, so most of the precipitation will

occur in the remainder of the afternoon and evening. During the

overnight hours, the southern/central plains shortwave should

shift into the area. Pops will continue, but should be lower

behind the MCS. We are expecting low stratus to build into the

area overnight tonight.



Thursday-Thursday night: The shortwave will continue to lift

northeast through the area while the northern stream system will

drop southeast into the mid and upper Mississippi valley

regions. Additional rain chances will continue through Thursday

night, however the risk for the heavy rain/flood potential

should come to an end by Thursday morning.



Will continue the flood watch through 7 AM Thursday.





&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025



The upper trough will then begin to shift into the area from the

northwest on Friday into Friday night. This will keep at least

low pops in the forecast through Friday night. Differences are

showing up in how the trough is handled over the weekend. Some

of the models start to cut off the low east of the area and may

linger low precipitation chances over the area through the

weekend. Some of the models are pushing a more progressive

trough trough which would keep generally dry conditions in

through the weekend as high pressure builds into the area. We

will likely keep in some low pops in at least our eastern CWA

through the weekend and diminish pops below 15% over the west.



We should get some upper level ridging in between two trough

axis early next week with a dry and slightly warmer

temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025



For the 18z TAFS, a thunderstorm complex was over eastern

Oklahoma and will continue to lift northeast and into southern

Missouri this afternoon and evening. Will likely see MVFR

within the convection. The convection should clear east of the

TAF sites by 02z and then stratus builds back into the area

overnight with MVFR and IFR conditions. Some of the winds within

the convection may gust up to 45 to 50 kts.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-

     077>083-088>098-101>106.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg

LONG TERM...Lindenberg

AVIATION...Lindenberg