287

FXUS63 KSGF 251701

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1101 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy drizzle to linger into the afternoon.



- Mostly dry with below-average temperatures this afternoon

  through at least early Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s,

  and lows in the 20s to low 30s.



- Widespread precipitation chances (50% to 80%) arrive late

  Friday and persist through the weekend. All rain is favored

  across most of the area, but wet snow may mix in across the

  eastern Ozarks late Friday into early Saturday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 241 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025



The upper level shortwave trough that assisted in yesterday`s

precipitation development continues to push northeast of the

area, with the respective surface low exiting to the east this

morning. Observations showcase decreasing visibilities across

the Missouri Ozarks as fog begins to develop behind this system.

As the early morning continues, areas of patchy fog will

continue, however we`re not expecting any widespread dense fog.

Radar shows patchy light showers continuing in localized areas,

with rates up to a couple hundredths of an inch.



As the morning continues, cloud ice is essentially nonexistent,

with relative humidities >90% and pockets of upward omega

(a.k.a. lift). All that to say, ingredients are present for

patchy drizzle to continue through the morning and into the

early afternoon hours before a cold front sweeps through the

area and ushers in a drier airmass.



Models show an upper level trough digging into the Midwest as we

continue through today, with the aforementioned associated cold

front sweeping through the area this afternoon and evening. This

frontal passage should end any residual drizzle as it passes

from west to east. Ensembles continue hinting at very light rain

sprinkles over our northeast counties this afternoon, however

any rainfall that does occur will have little to no

accumulations. The more likely scenario would be for any

precipitation to be in the form of drizzle.



With clouds sticking around through the afternoon before

clearing occurs this evening/tonight, afternoon highs are

expected to remain in the upper 50s, with some areas near

south-central Missouri reaching the low 60s.



A much colder airmass will settle into the region behind the

front as northwesterly flow aloft dominates. As a result,

afternoon highs through the remainder of the week will top out

in the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows in the 20s to low

30s.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 241 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025



As we look towards this weekend, ensembles continue to showcase

an upper level trough developing over the western CONUS,

allowing Gulf moisture to return to the area as southerly flow

takes over. This will likely bring an end to the dry conditions,

with NBM probabilities continuing to range between 50-85%,

especially Friday night through Saturday afternoon.



Now the big question remains: what precipitation type will we

likely see. The short answer is that it`s still too far out to

narrow down specifics, as large discrepancies between ensembles

still exist. Even just looking at the NBM interquartile spread

for Springfield, there`s still a 19-20 degree difference between

the 25th and 75th percentiles (25th: 34 degrees; 75th: 53

degrees), which would be a large determining factor in precip

type. However further northeast, this does narrow down a bit

where the colder temperatures are more probable. It`s really

going to come down to if the warm air in the south can surge

northward or if the colder air remains. We`ll have a better idea

of these specifics once ensembles come into better agreement on

the dynamics of this system. For now, the best chances for any

wintry precip in our CWA remain over the eastern Ozarks Friday

night/Saturday morning where temperatures around freezing could

lead to a rain/wet snow mixture. In these locations, NBM

probabilities for measurable snow >0.1" are 20-30%, with

probabilities of >1" remaining between 10-20%. Further

northeast, snow would be favorable, while southwest (most of

our CWA) rain would be the favorable ptype. The Probabilistic

Winter Storm Severity Index continues to show a 10% to 30%

chance of minor travel impacts across the eastern Ozarks.



With the high uncertainty still at play leading to drastically

different scenarios, we`ll need to monitor how this system sets

up closer to this timeframe in order to get a better idea of

what to expect. However with those traveling after the

Holidays, now would be the time to begin preparing in the case

of wintry precipitation. Make sure to keep up with the forecast

through the remainder of the week as forecast details continue

to change.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025



MVFR to IFR ceilings are being observed across the region as

widespread low-level stratus persists. Patchy light drizzle may

also temporarily reduce visibilities. Little clearing is

expected until a cold front pushes through Missouri from the

west during the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will increase as

the front approaches, with gusts of 20 to 25 kt.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Melto

LONG TERM...Melto

AVIATION...Didio