780

FXUS63 KSGF 220800

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Some areas of fog through this morning, with localized dense

  fog in locations along and south of the Ozark Plateau. Reduced

  visibilities around one mile or less at times. Potential for

  additional fog development tonight into Sunday morning.



- Widespread rain chances (60-90%) return Sunday night through

  Monday. Exact timing and amounts will continue to fluctuate

  due to some remaining uncertainty with this next system.



- Increasing confidence in below average temperatures by mid

  next week into Thanksgiving, and potentially continuing into

  next weekend. Highs in the 40s to near 50, and lows in the 20s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025



This Morning:

Cold air advection continues on the backside of a departing low

pressure system to the east. Sufficient low-level moisture

remains in place, with a low cloud stratus deck around 200 to

400 feet over the Ozarks region. As some of the stratus builds

down, there will be some areas of fog that develop. Reduced

visibilities around 1 mile or less may occur at times through

this morning, though the extent of coverage is not expected to

be widespread. Instead, localized areas of dense fog is the more

likely scenario. Confidence in localized dense fog is highest

along the Ozark Plateau and south towards the MO/AR border.

Additionally, the areas of fog have been transient in nature,

with visibilities fluctuating over short periods of time and

distance. Given this setup, have elected to not issue a Dense

Fog Advisory for the time being. Monitor for updates or changes

through the morning.



Today-Tonight:

As we progress into this afternoon, clouds will linger over much

of the area. The latest guidance keeps the cloud deck in place

through at least early to mid afternoon before clearing

gradually occurs from north to south. As a result, high

temperatures may underachieve, with the current forecast in the

middle to upper 50s. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are

expected through today with subtle mid-level ridging into the

region ahead of the trough building over the Baja/Four Corners.

Lows fall into the lower to middle 40s tonight. Some localized

areas of fog cannot be ruled out, especially along waterways

and valleys.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025



Sunday-Monday:

Mid-level height rises overspread the region into Sunday,

supporting highs returning into the lower to middle 60s. Dry

weather is expected the majority of the day on Sunday before the

next system begins to build out of the Southern Plains. This

system will feature the return of widespread rain chances

(70-90%) late Sunday night into Monday. Ensemble guidance trends

continue to support widespread measurable rainfall, primarily in

the form of showers with a low chance (10-20%) for a few

embedded thunderstorms along the MO/AR border. This system is

supported by increasing southerly flow advecting moisture into

the area. Southerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph can be expected

through Monday. Rain chances remain highest Monday morning

through Monday afternoon. As for potential amounts, NBM depicts

the highest to occur along and south of Interstate 44. NBM

probabilities are a bit lower than previous forecasts for this

area:



Prob > 0.5 inch: 40-70%

Prob > 1.0 inch: 20-50%



With this in mind, we not looking at any flooding with this

system despite widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in this area

over the last few days. Instead, this will remain a beneficial

rainfall given the lingering drought conditions. Rainfall

amounts will fall off further north of Interstate 44. It is

worth noting there remains some uncertainty amongst the

guidance, with exact details of timing and amounts to be pinned

down over the next 24 to 48 hours. Rain chances look to diminish

into Monday night from west to east.



Tuesday-Next Weekend:

By Tuesday, the early week system slides east of the region with

a cold front progged to translate through the Middle Mississippi

Valley. This cold front is tied to a passing trough across the

north, ushering in a cooler airmass for mid week. This will

support highs in the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday, and

overnight lows in the middle to upper 20s. The cooler weather

will be accompanied by mostly dry weather through mid to late

week. This includes the Thanksgiving Holiday next Thursday,

with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.



By next weekend, confidence is a bit lower with regards to

temperatures, as NBM interquartile spreads remain 10 degrees or

greater. For the time being, the forecast is leaning towards

seasonable to below average temperatures. Additionally, the

upper-level pattern appears to become more active, supporting

the return of rain chances next weekend. Confidence remains

lower given the differences from model run to run and

timing/position of synoptic features.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025



A boundary slowly drops through the area overnight, with

associated low stratus. Some areas of fog and mist will

accompany this low status at times. As a result, expect

widespread IFR to LIFR flight conditions. Ceilings as low as 200

to 500 feet in addition to visibilities dropping towards 2 to 4

miles, perhaps even lower at times. The low status and fog/mist

are expected to persist through much of Saturday morning, with

guidance hinting at improving flight conditions from IFR to MVFR

by late morning into the early afternoon. Clouds look to

gradually dissipate late in the TAF period. Light north-

northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots overnight, becoming more

westerly on Saturday.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Perez