National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce


000
FXUS63 KSGF 230729
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
229 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Muggy conditions were across the entire CWA early this morning
with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s and generally dew
point depressions of around 1 or 2 degrees. With a calm or very
light wind, we could see some patchy areas of fog redevelop again
towards morning.

A weak area of upper level low pressure was located underneath a
ridge near the ARKLATX region and is expected to lift north over
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the day today. The
atmosphere should become uncapped by late morning with enough
instability and moisture for more widespread convection today,
mainly from late morning into the early evening. The higher pops
will be closer to the low over our southwest CWA with lowest pops
to the northeast. Shear is expected to remain fairly weak so the
overall severe weather risk is low.

Thunderstorm coverage should diminish after sunset and be more
confined to areas over southern MO through the mid to late
evening.

Highs today may be a bit lower today with more cloud cover and
more widespread convection, with the lower readings in the
southwest CWA in the low to mid 80s. Mid to upper 80s are expected
in the northeast CWA.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible on nearly a daily
basis with mainly diurnal convection expected. A disturbance in
the upper level flow on Friday may bring about a chance of more
organized convection late in the day across our western CWA.

A tropical low in the Gulf will eventually push inland early next
week. The ECMWF is still much further to the west with it`s track
and does bring some of that moisture and rainfall into MO by
midweek, while the GFS keeps the majority of the rainfall over the
southeast U.S.

A deep low currently off the west coast will slowly push inland on
Friday and into the Rockies over the weekend. Upper ridging will
be over the central U.S. However instability and some energy
underneath the ridge will allow for diurnal convection on a daily
basis. Highs each day will be from the mid 80s to around 90.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Light winds will occur overnight. May see some patchy light fog
early in the morning.

Southeasterly winds will then occur on Wednesday. Scattered
storms are expected to develop across the region. Brief period of
lower flight category and gusty winds could occur with any storm.

Patchy fog may be possible again late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise