430

FXUS63 KSGF 112343

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

543 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy northwesterly winds through Thursday with frequent

  gusts of 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon hours.



- Unseasonably cool conditions take hold Thursday through the

  weekend.



- Precipitation chances return to southwest Missouri and

  southeast Kansas on Sunday. Considerable uncertainty on the

  track of this system limits overall confidence.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 118 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026



Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:



Upper-air analysis indicates a building ridge across the western

CONUS and a shortwave embedded within the upper-level jet

sinking southeastward out of the northern Plains. At the

surface, a low pressure center is transiting the Ohio Valley,

dragging a cold front through southern Missouri. A second low

is situated over the Great Lakes region, with another front

extending through the Midwest.



Moderately Breezy Today and Thursday:



A tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the

aforementioned low pressure center underneath the upper- level

jetmax has and will produce moderately elevated winds in this

cold air advection regime today. Observations have indicated

gusts of 20 to 25 mph are common, and NBM QMD data suggest a

sporadic gust to 35 mph is possible during the afternoon hours.

Winds will lessen somewhat after sunset as the boundary layer

decouples but will strengthen again on Thursday once mixing

resumes. A slightly more diffuse pressure gradient may result in

a bit tamer winds on Thursday as the area sits in between low

pressure systems, but gusts of 20 to 25 mph are still likely.



Unseasonably Cool Temperatures to End the Week:



Global models show consensus in shifting the polar jet southward

on Thursday, engulfing nearly the entire eastern CONUS. A

secondary cold front will transit southwest Missouri and

southeast Kansas at the same time, ushering in an unseasonably

cold airmass that will stick around through the end of the week.

Highs in the 50s Thursday afternoon will be followed by

overnight lows at or below the freezing mark Thursday night. In

fact, REFS depicts a 60-95% chance of temperatures 32 degrees or

lower across the forecast area. Probabilities of temperatures

28 degrees or lower drop to less than 25%.



Temperatures will be colder still on Friday. Highs are forecast

to fail to climb out of the 40s for many locations Friday

afternoon, with the exceptions perhaps being across extreme

southern Missouri and Kansas. Lows Friday night will drop into

the 20s for many, and we would not be surprised to see some

observations in the teens across the eastern Ozarks Saturday

morning with the mostly clear skies and calm winds promoting

efficient radiational cooling.



Given recent frost and cold temperatures, the growing season is

considered to be over, however, and additional frost/freeze

headlines will not be issued.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 118 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026



Precipitation Chances on Sunday:



Ensemble guidance suggests the synoptic pattern described above

will begin to break down late Saturday into early next week. As

it does so, there is consensus in a shortwave transiting the

Plains, bringing modest moisture, lift, and precipitation with

it. Cluster analysis shows there is meaningful non-consensus on

the track of this system, however. Canadian and European

members tend to favor a more northerly track, which would mean

precipitation is more likely to get into southwest Missouri and

southeast Kansas; GEFS members tend to favor a more southerly

track, however, which would keep the area mostly if not entirely

dry. Thus, NBM PoPs remain down the middle, ranging from 40-60%

across far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, with lower

chances as you look toward central and eastern Missouri. It is

difficult to pick a "winner" scenario at this point, and

monitoring of forecast trends is prudent. Currently the highest

precipitation chances are Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Should this happen, temperatures will be warm enough to keep the

precipitation as all rain. If precipitation lingers into Sunday

night, however, temperatures near 32 degrees could allow for a

few snowflakes to mix in with the rain. For reference, NBM 25th

percentile temperatures currently sit between 32 and 37 degrees.

Given these marginal temperatures and only modest QPF to begin

with, no accumulations or impacts are expected even if a few

flakes do fall.



Gradual Warmup Next Week:



Global models depict upper-level ridging taking hold over the

Plains throughout the week. This pattern change will promote a

steady and gradual warmup each day, with temperatures

approaching seasonal norms near 60 degrees by midweek (and

likely even higher through the week`s end).



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026



Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the

entire 00Z TAF period. Northwesterly winds will diminish to 5-10

kts until 15-17Z in which they will turn slightly more northerly

at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts.



Skies should remain mostly clear. After 17Z, a 3-4 kft cu field

may enter SGF. Coverage is expected to be scattered and above 3

kft, though there is a 15-30% chance to see some BKN MVFR cigs

at times after 15Z.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Price