Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

395

FXUS63 KSGF 122302

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

602 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- 20-50% chance for light showers across western Missouri and

  extreme southeast Kansas tonight into Monday. Cloud cover and

  rain will keep highs in the 70s in some areas.



- After Monday, above average high temperatures in the upper

  70s to mid 80s and dry weather forecasted through the end of

  next work week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025



Current RAP analysis paired with satellite imagery depicts the

longwave pattern staying largely the same as the forecast

package 24 hours ago. An energetic longwave trough with several

embedded shortwaves are located over the west CONUS, with a

weaker but also meridional shortwave trough over the east coast.

One of the shortwave over the west has lifted north of ND into

Canada, leaving a strong jet across the central and northern

Plains. This has shifted the ridge axis in between the waves

eastward over our area bringing clear skies and highs on track

to reach the upper 70s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle

80s along and west of I-49. Additionally, the deep low pressure

system associated with the shortwave in Canada has tightened the

surface pressure gradient across the Plains, bringing observed

winds up to 10-20 mph across our area with gusts up to 20-25 mph

at times.



Elevated winds and moisture will keep lows mild tonight ranging

from the mid-50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid-60s along and

west of I-49.





20-50% chance for light showers tonight into Monday:



With the shortwave trough lifting north into Canada, the

trailing jet stream will stall in its current position, also

stalling the surface cold front at the leading edge of the jet.

Residual positive vorticity advection atop the front along with

residual frontogenesis should be enough forcing for some light

showers and sprinkles across west MO and extreme southeast KS

late tonight into Monday. The best chances for these are along

and northwest of a line from Neosho to Camdenton, though a few

sprinkles reaching east of that line are certainly possible

(10-20% chances). HREF/SREF/NBM guidance all point to MUCAPE

being below 100 J/kg, with a 70-90% chance of instability being

below 50 J/kg, therefore, thunder is highly unlikely. And if

there is enough instability for convection, the forecasted

profiles do not look tall enough for lightning. With much of the

forcing being weak and synoptic, only light amounts are

forecast, generally between 0.01-0.1".





Some areas to see slightly cooler highs in the 70s Monday:



Because of the widespread mid-level clouds and light rain

showers across the area, those areas mainly northwest of I-44

may see highs in the 70s, some locations as low as the lower

70s. Areas southeast of I-44 will continue to see above normal

temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025



Above average temperatures and dry weather during the work week:



Height rises will once again take hold of the region as a kidney

bean upper-level high builds in the Gulf States. This will

continue to promote above average high temperatures in the

lower to middle 80s. NBM spreads are much smaller now for this,

showing very high confidence. There are only 5-20% chances for

high temperatures below 80 F for some locations through the

period. To the same point, low temperatures will also be mild

ranging from the middle 50s in the eastern Ozarks, to the upper

50s and lower 60s elsewhere.





Monitoring potential system next weekend:



Global ensembles are still depicting a potent trough traversing

the area next weekend. While clusters still show some

discrepancy on exact timing, a majority consensus is honing in

on a passage sometime Saturday/Saturday night. This system will

bring our next bout of widespread rain chances, currently at

30-50% Friday night through Sunday. Due to timing differences,

chances will likely diminish the other days as they increase on

one day that favors the system passage. For example, if Saturday

night becomes favored, rain chances will likely increase

Saturday, while chances may decrease for Friday/Sunday. The

trough passage will be quick and progressive, so it is unlikely

we will see rain Friday, Saturday, and Sunday like the current

forecast shows.



Additionally, the synoptic pattern depicted by ensembles favors

the potential for severe weather if the trough passage aligns

with peak heating/instability. LREF gives a joint probability

of MUCAPE >500 J/kg and deep layer shear >40 kts (the general

threshold for high-shear, low-CAPE severe weather potential) at

45-65% across the region Saturday. Therefore, we will need to

monitor trends. While there will be small deviations in the

timing of the system, if we were to use the current ensemble

guidance, the trough and associated surface front look to move

through Saturday late morning. This would place a severe weather

risk just west of us Friday, and just east of us Saturday.

Again, details will likely change between now and then, so the

potential for severe weather exists. GEFS and ECMWF AI guidance

continues to support this potential, though chances are low due

to the spatial differences.



What is more certain is that after the trough passage, we will

likely see cooler temperatures, though this is outside our

7-day time range to discuss too much. However, NBM spreads point

to highs in the 70s rather than 80s in the extended range.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 602 PM

CDT Sun Oct 12 2025



Mid-level cloud cover will increase after 06Z tonight as a cold

front approaches western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Light

showers are likely to develop along this boundary, which may

temporarily bring MVFR conditions to the JLN terminal. There is

a low chance (20%) that a few sprinkles are observed across

central Missouri after 08Z, but confidence in both occurrence

and flight category degradation was too low to include any

mention in the current TAFs.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Price

LONG TERM...Price

AVIATION...Didio