Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

549

FXUS63 KSGF 081855

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1255 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Precipitation chances remain less than 10% areawide through

  Saturday.



- Near to above average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.



- Cold air settles in Friday night through Saturday night.

  Overnight wind chills in the teens to single digits are

  possible.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025



The stratus deck that was blanketing southern Missouri this

morning will continue to break up throughout the afternoon,

though a few scattered clouds may linger. Despite the clearing,

warm air advection looks to arrive too late to realize much

actual heating today, and high temperatures will remain below

average.



However, a passing mid-level shortwave impulse and increasing

southwesterly winds will aid in warmer air advecting into the

region by Tuesday. Afternoon highs look to top out in the mid to

upper 50s. While point forecast soundings suggest relatively low

mixing heights, the tightening surface pressure gradient will

support occasional wind gusts between 25 to 30 mph.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CST

Mon Dec 8 2025



Dry:

The upper-level pattern will not be supportive of notable

precipitation chances through the long term period; that is,

global ensembles depict a longwave trough persisting across the

eastern CONUS, keeping southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas

in a dry northwest flow pattern through at least Sunday.

Precipitation chances remain less than 10% through the long term

forecast.



Cold Weekend:

A passing shortwave through the northern Plains and Midwest will

drag a surface cold front through the region Thursday night into

early Friday that will usher in a much colder airmass this

weekend. The good news is that southwest Missouri and southeast

Kansas will be spared from the coldest air, which will be across

the Midwest and northeastern U.S. A glance at ensemble clusters

reveals two primary solutions. The "warmer" solution-- mainly

dominated by ECMWF members--keeps the aforementioned trough

slightly flatter, or farther northeast. To that end, the ECMWF`s

Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails therefore keep any

extreme cold signal northeast of our area. The colder solution

is comprised mainly of GEFS and GEPS members which allow the

trough to intrude farther southwest. Indeed, this disagreement

in the models is manifested in the NBM`s large (10+ degrees)

interquartile spread in temperatures beyond Friday.



So what does this mean for actual temperatures? In the "warm"

solution, low temperatures Friday night would generally be in

the 20s with Saturday highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. In the

cold solution, lows Friday night would generally be in the

teens to single digits with Saturday highs in the mid 20s to mid

30s. Wind chills in the single digits are possible. Regardless,

there is high confidence that temperatures will fall well below

normal late Friday through Saturday--the question is simply how

far below normal. For what it`s worth, the trend in the

guidance has been toward the warmer solution. Temperatures look

to increase for Sunday as the cold airmass shifts northeast.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025



Mid-level stratus that has been producing MVFR to locally IFR

ceilings this morning will continue to break up at the

beginning of the TAF period, though scattered mid-level clouds

may persist through the afternoon.



Southwest winds will increase on Tuesday, sustained between 10

to 15 kt and gusts near 25 kt.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Didio