Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

441

FXUS63 KSGF 251733

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1133 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for 6 PM today through 12

  PM Monday. Sub-zero low temperatures expected tonight with

  wind chills as cold as -23 degrees by Monday morning.



- Behind the winter storm, high temperatures in the 20s and 30s

  through Thursday along with lows in the single digits to

  teens will extend the time it takes for any snow on the ground

  to clear.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026



Snow is still ongoing across the area this morning with most

areas reporting 2 to 4 inches measured so far. An additional 3

to 6 inches is forecast to fall through the rest of today with

snowfall slowly tapering off this afternoon. Looking at radar,

sleet mixed with snow appears to still be falling over the far

eastern Ozarks near the MO/AR border. Model soundings for the

West Plains area have the column cooling a bit more over the

next couple of hours and that precip type should change over to

all snow here shortly. There are areas of banded snow occurring

that have been dropping visibilities down to below 1 mile as

those bands move through. Not only are most roads in the state

of KS and MO snow covered, there are places where snow will make

it difficult to see the road ahead of you. Use caution if out

driving today and leave plenty of room for the plows.



Northerly wind gusts will start to increase later this morning

and gust up to 25 mph by this afternoon. Highs may only make it

into the teens today with widespread wind chills near -10

degrees. Snow is expected to end around 1-3 PM from west to east

across the area and clouds will dissipate through the evening

hours. This will make for a very cold night ahead for us due to

clear skies and the snowpack. As alluded to in the previous

forecast packages, model guidance has lowered our overnight

lows and wind chill temperatures down even more which is the

reason why we upgraded our Cold Weather Advisory to an Extreme

Cold Warning for all of our CWA from 6 PM tonight to 12 PM

Monday with wind chills as low as -23 degrees expected. The

criteria for the area is -15 to -20 degrees and we are

definitely hitting that threshold now. Remember to dress warmly,

bring outdoor pets inside, and check on the vulnerable.



Northwest flow returns as surface high pressure moves over the

area. Monday will be mostly sunny but cold with highs only in the

teens once again. Northwest winds will be breezy with gusts up

to 20 mph.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026



An upper level ridge will be over the west cost with an upper

level trough over the eastern US. This will leave the region in

an upper level northwest flow pattern for most of the week.

Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s will occur Tuesday and

Wednesday. Though, daytime highs will struggle to make it past

the freezing mark due to the lingering snowpack. Winds will be

breezy just about everyday this week and may blow the light

fluffy snow onto the plowed roads. This may continue to cause

slippery roadways until the snow completely melts.



Another trough will move through the region during the end of

the week bringing colder conditions back to the area on Friday

with highs in the 20s. A dry air mass will be in place across

the area and moisture return will be limited, so mainly dry

conditions will occur this coming week. There is 10-15% chance

of snow over central MO on Friday, but precip is not very

widespread and no accumulations are expected at this time. The

CPC 8-14 day Hazard Outlook has our area outlined for a slight

risk of much below normal temperatures for the start of

February. This means that our temperatures over the next couple

of weeks may struggle to get above our average high/low

temperatures for this time of year which would be highs in the

low to mid 40s and lows in the low to mid 20s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026



The back edge of the snow is ending from west to east across the

area and will continue to end early this afternoon. MVFR

ceilings will likely linger behind the snow this afternoon then

clear with high clouds remaining over the area this evening and

tonight. Northerly winds will occur this afternoon and could

gusts up to 15 to 20kt at times. Winds will become light and

variable tonight.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-

     097-101.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday

     for KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for

     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday

     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Soria

LONG TERM...Soria

AVIATION...Wise