National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

FXUS63 KSGF 221756 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

High pressure will slide to the south of the area through tonight,
keeping a modestly tight pressure gradient across the area,
resulting in good mixing today under mostly sunny skies. Expect west
winds once again to be rather gusty with some gusts of 30 to 35 mph
expected once again. These will slacken tonight, as winds become
more southerly with time. Temperatures will be cooler than normal
today with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 60s. Southerly winds
and some mixing tonight will keep lows in the low to mid 40s, with a
few spots across the eastern Ozarks hitting the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

As the high continues to slide well southeast of the area Wednesday,
warm advection on breezy south to southwest winds will push
temperatures back up to slightly above seasonal normals, with highs
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Next shortwave trough sharpens up over the intermountain region,
pushing a cold front out into the plains Wednesday night, eventually
pushing it through the area Thursday. Models have been consistent in
showers or rain associated with the front from later Wednesday night
into Thursday. With clouds/showers and cold advection Thursday,
temperatures will be quite cool, with highs just around 50 over
southeast Kansas, to perhaps 60 over far south central Missouri
where the colder air will be last to arrive.

Confidence levels from Friday through Monday is very low at this
point. Models continue to diverge significantly as GFS maintains an
more open and progressive wave to translate across the area late
this week and weekend, advertising rain on Friday, but dry for the
weekend. On the other hand the ECMWF continues its trend of much
slower and deeper trough, actually cutting off a low over New Mexico
Friday, then slowly lifting it northeast into the area by Saturday
night/Sunday, bringing rain to the region for the weekend. For now
we have a some small rain chances over the weekend as a compromise.
Hopefully further model runs over the next couple of days will hone
in on a similar solution. Temperatures will look to generally be
below normal for the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

High pressure over the plains will keep the Ozarks region under
clear skies through the next 24 hours. Surface winds will be gusty
out of the west through this evening before winds drop off and
begin to turn out of the south overnight. Low level wind shear
will impact the region overnight until mid morning Wednesday when
surface winds will again begin to pick up and become gusty.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding