National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

FXUS63 KSGF 181703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Clouds are holding on this morning across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. We will see an increase of
additional clouds from southwest to northeast today with our next
storm system developing. A strong and potent upper level storm
system will move out of the mountain areas of the western U.S.
into the Central Plains region later today and tonight. Models
show a shield of rain with embedded thunder developing southwest
of the area and moving in by this evening and through the night.
There will be enough elevated instability for thunder and maybe
isolated pea size hail tonight into Monday morning but severe
weather is not expected.

Low pressure will deepen tonight and Monday across the Central
U.S. and winds will become breezy if not gusty over the area
tonight and Monday. Off and on showers will continue Monday into
Monday night as the storm system moves through the region. Total
rainfall will average between half an inch to up to one inch. Model
indicate that colder air aloft may change some showers into wet
snow flakes mixing in by Tuesday morning as the system exits the
region. Temperatures will be above freezing and the ground will be
too warm to support any accumulations or impacts. But don`t be
surprised if we see some wet flakes Tuesday morning especially
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Cooler weather returns for middle of the week with drier weather
for a couple days. A rebound in temperatures come back by Thursday
into Friday with southerly winds. The next storm will will
approach from the west on a progressive flow in the weather
pattern. Rain chances return for the end of the week with mild


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The southwest half of the stratus deck dissipated rather quickly
over the past hour, which includes the 3 TAF sites. We are
expecting VFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon, with
lower ceilings and showers moving into the area by 23-00z. MVFR
and IFR ceilings will be possible this evening and overnight with
several rounds of rain. The showers later tonight will probably
have embedded thunderstorms and a chance of heavier rain, along
with some wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin