Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

111

FXUS63 KSGF 311908

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

208 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Marginal to Slight risk for severe storms this evening into

  the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging straight- line

  winds will be the primary hazards.



- Localized flash flooding is a concern broadly across central

  Missouri tonight, though confidence in the location/axis of

  the heaviest rainfall remains low.



- Warm and humid conditions on Monday with heat index values in

  the 90s to around 100 degrees.



- Mostly dry conditions through the work week, with better rain

  chances returning next weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026



Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:



An upper-level shortwave embedded in an otherwise stangnat

blocking pattern is pivoting northeast through the northern

Rockies this afternoon, with a broad ridge trying to build over

the south- central CONUS. At the surface, a stalled front is

draped from central Kansas to the southeast through southwest

Missouri and into the lower Mississippi Valley.



On radar, a few loosely organized thunderstorms/storm clusters

are drifting through central and eastern Missouri riding a

residual outflow boundary from last night`s convection.

Observations and hi-res guidance say the environment is still

moist and plenty unstable with dewpoints in the low 70s and

MUCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg early this afternoon. Deep-layer shear

is modest at 20-30 kt.



Isolated Severe Storms this Afternoon and Tonight:



Afternoon: Diurnal heating and steep low and mid-level lapse

rates will result in further destabilization this afternoon and

evening. While shear is marginal, the aforementioned stalled

front and residual outflow boundaries combined with this strong

instability may allow for isolated, weakly forced severe

thunderstorms. Hail to quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph will be

the primary hazards with these storms. Probability of

occurrence is low here.



Evening/Overnight: Warm air advection through a corridor of

increasing shear in southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri look

to produce more widespread and organized convection this

evening. Furthermore, decreasing surface CIN and strong 35-45 K

theta-e differences should allow for better- established cold

pools that may result in the formation of an MCS. Storm motion

would initially be easterly or even northeasterly across eastern

Kansas and western Missouri but will eventually shift to the

southeast as storms cross into central Missouri, following the

eastern periphery of the ridge and forward-propagating corfidi

vectors in a highly unstable, uncapped atmosphere.



Hazards: If supercells do form across eastern Kansas and western

Missouri (I-49 and west) this evening, there will be a short

window where hail up to golf balls and winds up to 70 mph will

be the primary hazards. Low- level shear will initially be weak,

but RAP output suggests 0-1 km SRH modestly increases to around

100-125 m2s2 throughout the evening, which is marginally

sufficient for a low-end tornado risk, particularly in the

vicinity of the stalled surface front. As the storms move into

central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks overnight, wind gusts

of 60 to 70 mph and quarter sized hail will be the primary

hazards.



Localized Flash Flood Threat Tonight:



Storms will be efficient rainmakers tonight with PWATs of 1.6"

to 1.9", likely allowing for rain rates of 1-2"/hr. While storm

motions will be more progessive tonight than they were last

night, a veering low-level jet in the vicinity of the front may

produce training storms over the same area.



How Much Rain: Guidance varies quite significantly in the

placement of the strongest storms and axis of heaviest rainfall

(therefore precluding Flood Watch issuance); HREF LPMM depicts

an axis of 2 to 4 inch totals near the Highway 54 corridor,

while the REFS shows similar precip totals farther north along

the I-70 corridor. There is a broad Slight (level 2 of 4)

Excessive Rainfall Outlook across central Missouri tonight. In

reality, the areal extent of the flood risk will not be quite as

widespread as the outlook may suggest, but there is increasing

confidence that there will be a localized flash flood risk

across central Missouri tonight.



Warm and Muggy Monday:



The shortwave will lift northeast tonight, allowing the

aforementioned ridge to build across the central CONUS, bringing

warm and humid air with it. Afternoon high temperatures in the

mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat

index values in the 90s to near 100 degrees across extreme

southwest MO and southeast KS. Greater cloud cover--and possibly

even lingering showers through the morning--across the eastern

Ozarks and south- central Missouri may result in slightly cooler

conditions than the rest of the forecast area.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026



Ensembles show general agreement in the omega block pattern

persisting through mid-week, meaning dry and seasonably warm

conditions for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Indeed,

PoPs remain less than 20% through Thursday with NBM percentile

data suggest daily highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.



Cluster analysis depicts increasing variability in the synoptic

pattern starting on Friday, though most show the pattern finally

breaking down with the return of rain chances across the area

Friday into the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026



Scattered low to mid-level clouds are moving through southern

Missouri at the start of the TAF period, with scattered showers

and storms across central Missouri. Cloud cover over may

occasionally fill in enough throughout the afternoon for

ceilings to bounce between MVFR and VFR, but no precipitation is

expected through the evening.



Overnight, a thunderstorm complex will track though central and

eastern Missouri. This activity will likely remain north of the

terminals. The highest chance for any impacts will be at SGF,

where a PROB30 group was included after 06Z.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Didio