Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

015

FXUS63 KSGF 120014

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

714 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible across far

  southern Missouri this afternoon into early this evening.

  Better chances will remain south of the area.



- Relatively drier with near-normal temperatures next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026



Scattered storms have develop just south of the area in

Arkansas along surface boundary. An upper level trough is

currently moving south across the region and some uncapped

instability has developed across far southern Missouri. As the

trough moves south some scattered storms will be possible across

far southern Missouri this afternoon into early this evening but

over all coverage should be more limited. The better severe

risk will remain south of the area, but there is the potential

for a few strong storms with gusty winds and small hail the

risk, along with locally heavy rainfall. Any activity that can

develop across the area will move south of the area this

evening. Clouds are increasing across central Missouri with the

upper level trough. A few light shower could be possible across

portions of central Missouri this afternoon.



Highs will range from the lower 80s across central Missouri

where more clouds are in place to the lower 90s across extreme

southeastern Kansas this afternoon. Lows tonight into Sunday

morning will drop into the 60s. Highs will warm into the

middle 80s to around 90 again on Sunday. Dewpoints will be

slightly lower on Sunday with readings in the middle to upper

60s resulting in heat index in values in the upper 80s to the

lower 90s Sunday afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026



Highs will warm into the middle 80s to around 90 with heat

index values in the upper 80s to the lower 90s Monday through

Wednesday.



The ensemble model members show an upper level low moving into

region from the southeast Tuesday into Wednesday and could bring

some rain chances to the area at times these days to portions of

the area. There are still some difference on the exact track

between the members, if the low takes a more southerly track

the rain chances would decrease across the area versus a more

northerly track. Overall rainfall amounts should remain light

with this system even with a more northerly track.



Late next week an upper level ridge will move towards the area

with highs in the lower to middle 90s occurring.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 714 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026



VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF

period.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Titus