Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

094

FXUS63 KSGF 131831

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

131 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High confidence in above normal temperatures through the

  remainder of the week into the weekend. Daily highs in the

  80s, with near record high maximum and high minimum

  temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.



- Increasing confidence in unsettled weather Friday through the

  weekend, and into early next week. This includes the potential

  for some strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to

  localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Uncertainty remains in

  the exact details.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025



Today-Tonight: An upper-level ridge continues to shift eastward

on the central CONUS today. As a result, low-level warm air

advection streams into the Middle Mississippi Valley. 850

temperatures push 15 to 17 C this afternoon, correlating to

surface temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The warmest temperatures will be found across southeast KS into

southwest MO where height rises are most significant. Meanwhile,

weak convergence and lift may support an isolated shower or

thunderstorm across the Eastern Ozarks through this

afternoon/evening. Most locations remain dry with PoPs < 10%.

Winds gradually increase out of the southeast through this

evening. Overnight lows fall into the lower to middle 60s.



Wednesday: Additional warming expected into Wednesday with 850

temperatures pushing 17 to 19 C. Confidence is high that strong

mixing will support surface highs in the lower to middle 80s

across the area, with perhaps some locations taking a run at

record highs (see Climate AFD section). Meanwhile, dewpoints

climb into the upper 60s to near 70. This will give us the first

taste of humidity this year, with maximum afternoon heat index

values approaching lower 90s along and west of Highway 65.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025



Thursday: Unseasonably warm temperatures persist into late week and

this weekend as mid-level southwest flow takes shape over the

region. Daily highs in the 80s can be expected. The main upper-

level wave and surface low are progged to lift through the

Central and Northern Plains, remaining displaced well north of

the area. An associated surface cold front will be draped back

through the central CONUS. Forcing remains limited, with a

strong thermal cap preventing any convection. A very low

confidence scenario would be for initiation to overcome the cap,

in a regime that will be highly unstable.



Friday: Additional shortwave energy translates eastward through

the region on Friday and into the weekend. However, there

remains some differences on placement and timing of the features

that will play a key role in convection on Friday. There are

two scenarios presenting themselves on Friday. The first being a

strong cap limits convection initiation and the second being

forcing overcomes the cap and convection develops in an

environment favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Guidance has remained variable between the no convection versus

convection scenarios. If convection is able to initiate, the

environment will be characterized by strong deep layer shear

(50-60 knots) in the vicinity of ample instability (ML CAPE

1500-2500 J/kg). SPC highlights portions of south central MO in

15% outlook (equivalent to a Slight Risk 2 of 5). An additional

signal is depicted in various Machine-Learning Severe

Probability products. Continue to follow the forecast for

updates as changes occur over the next 72 to 84 hours.



Saturday-Monday: Unsettled weather persists into the weekend

with increasing rain chances. Rain chances (40-70%) are highest

as we progress through Saturday night into Sunday, and beyond

into early next week. There remains some uncertainty in the

exact timing/placement of key mesoscale features that will drive

the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to

localized heavy rainfall and flooding. However, it is worth

noting this deep southwest flow pattern is supportive of both.

While there will be dry time through late weekend and early next

week, periods of showers and thunderstorms are becoming

increasingly likely.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025



High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the period.

Winds light at 5 to 10 knots out of the southeast.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025



Record High Temperatures:



May 14:

KSGF: 88/2018

KJLN: 92/1947

KVIH: 89/1899



May 15:

KSGF: 87/1957

KUNO: 87/1957





Record High Minimum Temperatures:



May 14:

KSGF: 66/1911



May 15:

KSGF: 67/1941



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Perez

CLIMATE...Burchfield