Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

190

FXUS63 KSGF 010540

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers and storms possible across the area this

  afternoon and evening (40-60% chance). There is a Marginal (1

  of 5) Risk for some of these storms to become severe, along

  with a heavy rain risk for areas east of Highway 65.



- Some mild heat and rain relief mid-week following the frontal

  passage before heat, humidity, and isolated rain chances

  (15-30%) return for the 4th of July weekend and onwards.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis shows a shortwave trough with embedded vorts

currently moving through Nebraska/Kansas/Iowa. The 12z KSGF

sounding measured slightly warmer air aloft and a substantial

cap however plenty of moisture remains. A cold front was

located from about Kansas City to Wichita and was moving

southeast. A subtle outflow boundary has pushed into

southcentral Missouri. Vis satellite was showing substantial

breaks in the clouds with temps reaching the lower 80s. RAP

analysis shows about 500-1500j/kg of ML CAPE across the area

with the highest instability east of Springfield.



This Afternoon through Tonight: Expect instability to continue

to increase with heating however dewpoints and temps overall are

not expected to reach as high as yesterday. 0-3km theta-e diffs

are also much lower than yesterday (15-20C) therefore localized

damaging winds to 60mph will be the main concern if storms can

get organized. Highest chances for a severe storm will

generally be east of Highway 65 however we are not expecting

anything close to the magnitude or extent of yesterday. HREF

guidance shows that storm coverage will be highest from 4pm

through about 9pm. PW values around 1.8in and slow storm

motions will also promote a risk for a few instances of flash

flooding, especially given saturated soils and higher than

normal stream flows.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025



Tuesday and Wednesday: Surface high pressure looks to slide

overhead and dewpoints should finally drop back down into the

lower 60s. NBM suggests highs in the lower to middle 80s Tuesday

and the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday. A somewhat comfortable

and dry few days before the heat, humidity and rain chances

return late week.



Thursday through the weekend: Ensembles suggest that some upper

level energy will try to slide in as early as Thursday however

there will be mid level ridging at the same time which should

limit the rain chances to less than 20 percent. Slightly higher

chances (20-40%) return Friday into the weekend as the flow

turns slightly southwesterly and lift increases. An increase in

temps and dews are likely with heat indicies reaching the middle

to upper 90s as well.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



Some very light mist and developing low clouds have been

observed at SGF. This is coincident with short-term guidance

suggesting a 60-80% chance for IFR to LIFR cigs to develop at

all TAF sites (greatest confidence at SGF as cooler air rises up

the Ozark Plateau). The mist developing could be from build

down of the low clouds, so have put TEMPOs with lowered

visibilities as well.



Otherwise, winds will be light at 3-8 kts out of the north for

the whole period, with clouds and visibilities gradually

clearing after 14Z.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Price