Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

711

FXUS63 KSGF 140943

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

443 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy fog will occur across portions of the area at times

  early this morning.



- Temperatures warm to above normal for the remainder of the

  work week.



- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday into Saturday night.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025



Some patchy areas of fog are occurring across portions of the

area early this morning, with most locations only seeing light

fog. There are some localized areas where fog is reducing

visibilities to less than a mile at times mainly across

portions of central Missouri. This will continue through the

early morning hours but widespread dense fog is not expected at

this time. The fog should dissipate by the mid morning hours

if not by sunrise across much of the area. Mid level clouds are

moving east across the area and will remain over much of the

area this morning then should start to clear this afternoon.



An upper level ridge of high pressure is building back over the

region and will be over the area the rest of the work week.

Highs will warm back into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon

and also again on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows this morning

will remain in the lower 60s with lows tonight and tomorrow

night cooling into the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Winds will

remain light today and Wednesday as highs pressure will be over

the area. Winds will then increase slightly on Thursday.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025



An upper level low is currently over the west coast early this

morning. The low will slowly move northeast this week, remaining

west of the area as the upper level ridge remains over the

region through Friday. On Friday the upper level low will move

northeast across the plains and will start to push the ridge

that will be over the region this week off to the east. Highs

will again warm into lower to middle 80s on Friday as the ridge

and warmer air mass remains in place. Southwesterly winds will

increase some on Friday ahead of the system to the west. Winds

could gusts to 20 to 30 mph at times on Friday.



The upper level trough and an associated cold front will move

northeast across the plain Friday and across the region on

Saturday. Moisture will increase from the south ahead of the

trough bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms to

the area as early as Friday night into Saturday evening. Models

are in good agreement that an upper level trough and cold front

will move through region this weekend, but there area still

difference in the exact timing and structure of the low between

the ensemble model members.



One solution the models are depicting, is a southern upper

level low and a northern upper level low develop with the

system. The upper level low will move northeast with the

southern low moving further south resulting in the trough

extending from the southwest to the northeast. This would result

in the front moving south through the area with a faster timing

Friday night into Saturday. The faster frontal passage and the

southern upper level low reaming further to the south would

result in the better moisture and instability remaining south of

the area. This solution would still bring showers and some

embedded storms to the area with the front, but the better

severe potential would be south of the area.



Another solution with the models, is the upper level lows remain

phase together into one with the trough and cold front moving

more from north to south as they move across the region. This

solution is showing a slower frontal passage occurring later in

the day on Saturday. This would allow better moisture return

and instability to move further north into the area bringing the

potential for some strong to severe storms to much of the area

on Saturday. There are other solution that are in between these

two.



Overall, this system will bring shower and thunderstorm chances

to the area as early as late Friday with shower and storm

chances lingering into Saturday evening and night as a cold

front moves through the region. There is the potential for some

severe storms across portions of the area, but there is a

scenario that the severe risk remains south of the area.

Uncertainty remains on the exact details due to the timing and

track differences of the upper level trough between the model

members.



Cooler conditions will occur behind the front on Sunday with

highs in the 70s and possibly only warming into the 60s across

portions of the area on Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025



Some patchy fog is occurring across portions of the area early

this morning, especially across portions of central Missouri.

Overall the fog is not expected to impact the TAF sites but

there is a low chance for a very brief period of MVFR

visibilities occurring early in the TAF period around sunrise.

Mid level clouds will remain over the area this morning,

clearing this afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable

through tonight.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Wise