Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

509

FXUS63 KSGF 191645

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1145 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gradual warming trend and a drier stretch of weather into

  early next week, featuring temperatures in the upper 60s to

  lower/middle 70s.



- Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-70%) return by next

  Thursday and Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper

air analysis shows a large mid level trough moving east of the

area into the Great Lakes. A dry airmass has settled in as seen

on the 00z KSGF sounding (0.21in PW value). Skies were clear

and surface high pressure has settled into Oklahoma and Texas.

This has allowed for winds to begin to turn more southwesterly

however many areas have gone calm. The wind protected/sheltered

areas have already seen temps drop into the lower to middle 30s.

Most locations however were in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

There is likely going to be some patchy frost development the

next few hours prior to sunrise for locations that drop down

into the lower/middle 30s.



Dry with increasing temperatures: After a cold start, temps

should rebound nicely today with full sunshine and a dry

airmass. Temps should easily reach the upper 60s to around 70.

Guidance suggests a very weak back door front dropping into

central Missouri late tonight which may increase cloud cover

there. Given the dry airmass in place, precip will be hard to

come by but a few areas may see a sprinkle near or northeast of

Rolla. Warmer air aloft builds in for Monday with highs

climbing into the lower to perhaps middle 70s.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



Increasing Rain Chances Thursday-Friday: Dry conditions will

persist until late week as ensembles continue to suggest a large

trough will move into the Rockies. This pattern looks to set up

southwest flow aloft and will be our next rain/thunderstorm

chances. The WPC has highlighted the area in a risk for heavy

rainfall. CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning probs do

suggest the potential for severe weather across the

central/southern plains however predictability in finer details

is low for our area at this time range.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



High confidence in VFR flight conditions prevailing through the

period. West-southwest winds this afternoon around 8 to 12

knots, with occasional gusts approaching 20 knots. Winds turn

more southerly and light overnight into Monday morning.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Perez