Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

279

FXUS63 KSGF 111129

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

529 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- S-SW wind gusts of 35-45 mph today, with the strongest winds

  along and west of Highway 65. There is a 30% chance of gusts

  exceeding 45 mph.



- Widespread elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon,

  especially in areas with very dry fuels. Strong winds and

  humidity values of 30-35%.



- A warm-up begins today with 60s and 70s expected for

  Wednesday into Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average).



- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in

  the forecast for early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 213 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025



Strong winds and dry conditions are the main story today.



Strong high pressure over the SE CONUS and a trough moving

across the northern CONUS are resulting in a tightening pressure

gradient across the area. This along would result in breezy

conditions, but as the trough moves into the Great Lakes this

morning, pressure falls of 6-7 mb/6 hours will result in an

isallobaric component that is in light with the pressure

gradient. Models have trended stronger with both the gradient

and the pressure change, so winds were increased with this

forecast update.



S-SW winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph are in the

forecast. Mixing just a couple hundred feet higher in the strong

LLJ this morning would be enough to gust above the 45 mph Wind

Advisory criteria, so that will have to be monitored, but at

this time mixing is expected to remain in check due in part to

cloud cover. NBM V5 shows around a 30% probability for gusts >45

mph. Regardless of exact speeds, the area impacted by the

strongest wind will be along and west of Hwy 65.



Accompanying gusty winds today will be high temperatures in the

upper 50s to mid 60s with minimum RH values of 30-35%. NBM

probabilities suggest at least a 95% chance of RH values not

dipping below 30%, lending confidence to not seeing

significantly worse fire conditions that currently predicted.

Given seasonal changes in fire fuels (leaf fall, grasses going

dormant, etc), weather conditions will lead to widespread

concerns for elevated fire behavior.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 213 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025



Wednesday through Saturday look dry for the most part with NW

flow transitioning to an upper ridge over the area with time.

This will result in temperatures increasing from highs in the

60s Wednesday to the mid and possibly upper 70s on Friday and

Saturday. Forecast high temperatures Friday and Saturday are

within a few degrees of record highs. Friday and Saturday also

look breezy with gusts of generally 20-30 mph.



After Saturday, model systems have been showing potential for a

system to move through the region, but vary widely from model to

model and run to run. Cluster analysis shows quite different

solutions in each of the 4 clusters, each with similar

membership, so confidence is very low (lower than normal) in

this portion of the forecast. Will want to keep an eye on this

time period as solutions could reasonably range from dry weather

to severe weather depending on strength and location of any

potential system (if one develops at all).



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025



LLWS turning to strong surface winds this morning is the

primary hazard for aviation in this TAF period. Expect winds to

diminish this evening, with potential for LLWS mainly at KBBG

tonight.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Titus