Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

488

FXUS63 KSGF 091054

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

454 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gusty winds of 20-30 mph today.



- Much colder conditions early today into early Tuesday. Highs

  in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s. Wind chills dipping

  into the single digits and teens tonight into Monday morning.



- Increasing confidence in elevated fire weather conditions on

  Tuesday, with dry and gusty conditions.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025



A cold front moved through the region last night with cold air

advection ongoing this morning. Satellite imagery showed low

stratus moving into the region, in advance of a secondary

shortwave and is expected to overspread the Ozarks today.

A tight surface pressure gradient today, between the departing

low and the approaching arctic surface high, will allow for

gusty winds, from 20 to 30 mph to occur through the day.



The combinations of cold air advection, gusty winds and cloudy

skies will make today feel rather blustery and late fall to

early winter like. Wind chills this afternoon will be in the

20s and in the single digits to teens for tonight. Moisture with

this system looks meager at best, though as the system move

through the area today, if enough lift can be realized, isolated

sprinkles or light flurries may occur into this morning. No

accumulating rain or snow is expected.



Sunday night into Monday, Cold air advection will continue

overnight tonight into Monday bringing the coldest temperatures

so far this season to the Ozarks. As temperatures fall into the

upper teens to lower 20s and winds continue wind chills by

Monday morning will be in the single digits. The cold air mass

move over the area during the day Monday as the center of the

surface high pressure slides south across the plains, just to

the west of the Ozarks. This will help keep cold temperatures

in place with highs from the upper 30s to low 40s. Monday night

will be cold once again with lows back in the 20s. The coldest

air will be in the east where some teens will be possible in the

valleys.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025



Tuesday though Friday will see a warming trend, gusty winds and

fire weather concerns. The upper trough will shift off to the

east Tuesday and be replaced by dry, northwesterly flow as an

upper level ridge builds across the western CONUS. Fairly good

low level warm advection, thanks to southwesterly surface flow

is expected as high pressure departs and an upper level short

wave approaches the Ozarks. Despite the change, a dry air mass

will remain in place.



Highs should rebound into the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday and

reach the upper 60s to lower 70s by Friday as the upper level

ridge makes its way east into the plains. Despite the

southwesterly surface flow, the air moving into the region will

come from the desert southwest Tuesday and as a result will be

rather dry with afternoon RH values it the 30s. Gusty southwest

winds with the low afternoon RH values will bring some elevated

to locally significant fire weather potential to the area

Tuesday afternoon. Continued southwesterly flow into Friday will

finally see a bit more moisture with dewpoints in the lower to

middle 50s. The week looks dry as a result of the slow moisture

return to the region.



Heading into next weekend, a strong upper level trough digs

into the four corners region of the southwest by Saturday. This

will allow for a more southerly flow into the region and good

enough moisture return to bring the potential for showers and

isolated storms to the region in to next Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 449 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025



Cold and gusty surface winds will impact the region through

today. Winds will gust from 25 to 35 mph at times from

the northwest. Low MVFR stratus was also moving over the region

as an upper level shortwave moves across the plains. As the

upper level trough moves through the region clouds will begin

to clear this afternoon into this evening brining VFR

conditions.





&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Hatch