National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

FXUS63 KSGF 252313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

High pressure and a very dry airmass will remain over the region
tonight. Light to calm winds and clear skies will allow
temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s overnight.

The transition from cooler to above normal temperatures will begin
on Sunday as southerly winds increase in response to a deepening
area of low pressure over the central Plains. Could see enough of
a gradient to produce wind gusts around 30 mph, especially near
the MO/KS border. Also expect dewpoint temps to increase through
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Dry conditions and warm temperatures are expected to continue
through Tuesday with upper level ridging over the region.

Attention then turns westward toward the upper low currently over
the southwest US. This feature will gradually be pushed northeastward
as a larger trough moves across the western U.S. With the
increasing moisture over the region interacting with this feature,
we could see rain begin as early as late Tuesday night over our
western counties. Otherwise, seeing increasing chances for rain
from Wednesday and early Thursday as the upper ridge shifts east
of the area and disturbances move through the upper level
southwest flow that sets up over the Plains and interacts with
decent low level moisture over the area.

Confidence in precipitation chances drops off as we get into late
Thursday through Saturday as models vary on how much to build the
ridge back into the central US and whether to generate another
cutoff low over the southwest US. Most of the ensembles of the
GEFS do show some light precip during that time. So will keep low
pops going through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.

High pressure directly overhead will lead to continued light and
variable winds this evening into early tonight. Winds will
gradually turn out of the south early Sunday morning and then
south-southwest for the remainder of Sunday as a surface trough
develops over the central Plains. Winds will also become breezy
for Sunday, with gusts up to 20 knots at SGF and 20-25 knots at