Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

502

FXUS63 KSGF 131123

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

523 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A Geomagnetic Storm Watch remains in effect. Many areas could

  see the Northern Lights (Aurora Broils) tonight. Some impacts

  may occur to GPS and communications.



- Above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected

  through Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record high

  temperatures are in jeopardy Friday and Saturday.



- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in

  the forecast for next Monday into early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 109 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025



The Ozarks remained under the influence of surface ridging and

high pressure this morning under northwesterly upper level flow.

The pattern was providing generally clear skies and light winds

for the area which will continue into today. This will allow for

another nice day across the Ozarks with light winds and ample

sunshine with afternoon highs climbing into the lower 70s again

today.



By the the afternoon, the surface high will will have move east

of the Mississippi River being replaced by south to southwesterly

surface and middle level flow. The southerly winds will allow

for additional warm air and moisture advection through tonight

and into Friday. Looking at the Ensemble and HREF output for

winds and Td`s for tonight through Friday A decent amount of

moisture is expected to advect into the region, especially from

850mb to the surface. With surface high pressure over southern

Louisiana tonight, winds into the Ozarks will be southerly and

right off the Gulf. Probabilities have greater than a 90 percent

chance for Td`s to be in the 50-55 degree range by Friday

morning.



In addition to increasing moisture, the combination of a

tightening surface pressure gradient and a 25-35kn LLJ will

bring breezy southerly winds with gusts from 25 to 35 mph at

times (35-55% chances). Even if those higher gusts aren`t

realized, winds will be breezy. The Boston Mountains in NW

Arkansas may slow things a bit, but would be overcome eventually

into the day Friday.



With the strong warm air advection, plenty of sunshine,

increasing moisture and southerly winds, afternoon highs will

climb into the middle, in some areas, to upper 70s Friday

afternoon. This will be very near record highs for Friday. (see

Climate section below)



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 109 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025



The pattern that develops on Friday will remain and likely be

stronger for Saturday with continued warm air and moisture

advection into the region. This will allow for warm and near

record breaking high temperatures to again be reached as an

upper level ridge expands over the central CONUS. Current

indications support going near the 90th percentile from the

probabilistic ensemble output which indicated afternoon highs

in the middle to upper 70s. Some locations my event see highs

around the 80 degree mark. This will depend on any cloud cover

however.



Heading into Sunday and the beginning of next week is where

models begin to differ in solutions for the region. An upper

level low off California coast by Saturday remains problematic

for the ensembles and synoptic models alike. Ensemble analysis

shows differences in timing, track and strength as the low make

its way ashore. Sunday looks fairly nice with only partly

cloudy skies and highs in the 60 to 70 degree range, thanks to

Canadian high pressure sliding into the plains in advance of

the low in the west.



Trends in the models have been slower and weaker wave as it

lifts into the northern Rockies towards the northern plains.

Until the system can be sampled by upper air observations

however, chances in the track, timing and strength will remain

possible. If the current ensembles are correct with the system,

there would be a 30-40% chance for rain Monday when the system

finally moves into the Central Plains.



This active pattern may continue as noted by the CPC forecast

for the 18th through the 26th with outlooks showing a slight

lean in the probabilities towards a warmer and wetter pattern.

While longer range forecasts for 6 to 14 days out have some

skill, there can and often are changes in this time scale. With

that said, CPC hazards outlook has the area in a slight to

moderate risk (20-60% chance) of heavy precipitation centered

around the middle of next week (Nov 20). To boil this down, the

second half of November looks like it may have the potential

to be more active which may help the ongoing drought across the

Ozarks.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025



Surface high pressure will be in control of the regions weather

through this evening with VFR flight conditions and light and

variable to light southeasterly winds.



Flight conditions will remain VFR with increasing middle and

high cloud cover. However, an increasing Low Level Jet will

bring the potential for low level wind shear after 06Z.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025



For context, average high temps for middle November are in the

57-60 degree range.



Record High Temperatures:



November 14:

KSGF: 78/1973

KJLN: 79/1964

KVIH: 75/1960

KUNO: 79/1999



November 15:

KSGF: 78/1964

KJLN: 77/1950

KVIH: 79/1955



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Hatch

CLIMATE...Burchfield