Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

071

FXUS63 KSGF 110855

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

355 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy fog possible across portions of central Missouri early

  this morning mainly north of Highway 54. Additional fog

  development will be possible mainly east Highway 65 tonight

  into Saturday morning.



- Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue across

  portions of south central Missouri early this morning. There

  is the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms redeveloping southeast

  of a Branson to Salem Missouri line late this morning into

  this afternoon.



- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms

  across portions of east central Kansas into Central Missouri

  Saturday and Saturday night.



- Warming trend this weekend into early next week as highs in

  the 90s return.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is moving east

across portions of northern Arkansas into southeastern Missouri

early this morning. This activity is mainly remaining south and

east of the area, but may continue to just clip the far southern

portions of the area early this morning.



Fog has developed across portions of central Missouri early

this morning. The better fog potential will remain north of the

area but some patchy dense fog will be possible mainly along

and north of the Highway 54 corridor early this morning.



An upper level shortwave trough is moving southeast towards the

area currently and will move through the area today. A drier

air mass in the mid level of the atmosphere is advecting into

the area from the northwest. As the trough moves across the

area today a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible later

this morning into this afternoon, mainly southeast of a Branson

to Salem Missouri line will better mid level moisture will be in

place. The drier air mass in the mid levels will limit the

potential to the west across the rest of the area today.

Lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the hazards with any

storm that is able to develop today. Coverage will remain

limited and most locations will likely remain dry with the

activity this afternoon. The drier air mass will continue to

advect to the east across the area today ending the rain chances

from east to west by this evening. This evening the drier air

mass should be in place across much of the area except maybe for

far south central MO where there is a low chance for a

lingering isolated storm to occur into this evening.



Tonight the upper level shortwave trough will push off the east

as an upper level ridge builds across the plains. Warm air

advection will start to occur from west to east tonight into

Saturday. Skies will clear and winds will be light tonight into

Saturday morning. There will be the potential for fog

development again tonight into Saturday morning mainly along and

east of Highway 65, east of the warm air advection. Some patchy

dense fog could be possible as lows drop into the lower to

middle 60s across the eastern Ozarks. Highs this afternoon will

range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the upper

80s across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



Warm air advection will occur across the area on Saturday as

highs warm into the upper 80s to the middle 90s. Moisture will

also start to advect into the area from west to east Saturday

into Saturday night. Instability will increase across the area

Saturday afternoon with the heating of a day. Lift will be

limited across the area but the cap should start to weaken

Saturday afternoon. There will be the potential for a few

isolated storms developing Saturday afternoon/early evening

mainly west of Highway 65, as the cap will likely be stronger to

the east and the drier air mass may remain in place into the

afternoon hours across the eastern Ozarks. Storm coverage will

likely be limited due to the weak lift therefore, most

locations will likely remain dry Saturday afternoon. If isolated

storms can develop there would be the potential for a few strong

to severe storms with damaging winds the main risk due to the

increasing instability and Theta-E difference Saturday afternoon

across southeastern Kansas into western Missouri. If a storm can

develop and produce an outflow, the low level flow would support

additional storm development on the outflow to the

east/southeast.



Saturday evening additional storm development will be possible

across central Kansas into northern Missouri. This activity

could develop into a complex of storms and track east southeast

and move into portions of the area late Saturday evening into

early Sunday morning. The exact track will be dependent on

exactly where storms develop and if the cold pools can congeal

and storms developing into a complex. The storm motion would

support a complex of storms moving east/southeast Saturday

night. Therefore, the further west storms develop the better

potential more of the area is impacted, then further to the east

and north would limit the potential. The better lift will

remain to the north of the area but if a strong cold pool can

develop low level wind flow and MUCAPE would support a complex

of storms maintaining to the southeast into the area, again the

exact track and locations impacted will be dependent on a

complex of storms developing and exactly where one develops.

There will also be the potential for some strong to severe

storms with damaging winds the main risk with the Saturday night

storms too.



Highs are expected to warm into the 90s again Sunday

into early next week. The ensemble model members are trending

more towards keeping the front further north through the middle

of next week, which would keep highs in the 90s through the

middle of next week. The front may then push into the area late

next week but there remains difference in the timing between the

model members. There could be some scattered shower and storm

chances at times early/middle of next week, but with the front

remaining further north the widespread rain potential may remain

more limited to the front can move into and through the area.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



Showers and some storms are moving east across portions of

northern Arkansas into south central/southeastern Missouri early

this morning. This activity will mainly remain south of the TAF

sites this morning, there is a low chance a shower clips the

KBBG site this morning into this afternoon.



Some patchy ground fog will be possible this morning mainly

across central Missouri into southeastern Kansas. As the showers

move east this some MVFR ceilings will be possible at the KSGF

and KBBG sites early this morning with a low chance for brief

period of IFR conditions.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Wise