Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

085

FXUS63 KSGF 162249

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

449 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Well above normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with

  some potential records(see climate section).



- Windy conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some gust

  potential of 30 to 45 mph.



- Rain chances Tuesday night(15-30%), Thursday(20-30%) and

  Friday night into Saturday night(15-20%).



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show two strong

upper level lows off the west coast. One off the California

coast and another off the British Columbia coast with a jet

streak of 100-120kts pushing into California. Upper level

ridging was located over the central U.S. A southwesterly low

level jet around 40kts was advecting warmer air into the area.

Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 60s across the area.



Tonight: Upper level energy and jet streak will push eastward

into the 4 corners region with jet streak increasing to around

150-160kts. Widespread upper divergence expected into the

Rockies and high plains with a surface low and frontal system

strengthening over the Rockies and high plains. Low level warm

advection will continue with lows tonight from the low 40s in

the southeast to the low 50s in the southwest.



Tuesday: Upper level wave will lift northeast into the central

and northern plains with a strong surface low pushing into the

Dakotas. The main upper energy and surface front will remain

well north of the area through the day with a strong pressure

gradient developing over the area. Wind gusts in our western CWA

of 30 to 40 mph will be possible during the day with 25 to 30

mph gusts in the east. Even though the sky will be mostly

cloudy, temperatures should reach the mid 60s to low 70s for

highs.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



Windy conditions continuing into Tuesday night: The windy

conditions will persist into Tuesday night with possibly higher

wind gusts during the evening up to 45 mph in parts of the

western CWA. A narrow line of instability may set up just ahead

of the front with the front and upper energy generating some

showers and possibly some thunder(15-30% for rain). The main

area of rain will be well north of the forecast area, however

the trailing cold front will bring low pops into the forecast

for mainly our northern counties.



Unseasonably warm temperatures continue into Thursday: A drier

air mass moves in behind the front Tuesday night and we should

expect more sunshine on Wednesday. High should reach the 70s

across the area which may approach or break some records(see

climate section for the record highs and record warmest lows).



A secondary low and frontal system should approach on Thursday.

Highs ahead of the front should again reach the upper 60s to mid

70s. Some moisture will try to sneak back up to the northeast

ahead of the front and we`ll have to keep an eye on

shower/thunderstorm chances in our far eastern CWA for Thursday

afternoon.



A cooler air mass will then move into the area for Friday into

the weekend, knocking temperatures back to more seasonal

readings. Upper energy will continue to move into the region

with low end rain chances(15-25%) Friday night into Saturday

night.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 447 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the

TAF period with passing high clouds. Winds will remain out of

the south with increasing speeds and gusts again on Tuesday.

Wind gusts around 25kts are likely Tuesday. Low level wind shear

is likely at the TAFs beginning late tonight at JLN and SGF and

BBG on Tuesday.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026



Record High Temperatures:



February 17:

KSGF: 73/1911

KJLN: 74/2011

KUNO: 77/1986

KVIH: 73/2017



February 18:

KSGF: 74/2016

KJLN: 78/1986

KVIH: 72/1991

KUNO: 77/1986



February 19:

KSGF: 75/2017

KJLN: 78/2017

KVIH: 76/2017

KUNO: 73/1981







Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:



February 17:

KSGF: 54/2011

KJLN: 63/1911

KUNO: 55/1961

KVIH: 55/1961





February 18:

KSGF: 51/1971

KJLN: 58/1971

KUNO: 53/1971

KVIH: 50/2017



February 19:

KSGF: 52/1994

KJLN: 53/1943

KUNO: 54/1994

KVIH: 54/1994



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg

LONG TERM...Lindenberg

AVIATION...Burchfield

CLIMATE...Lindenberg