Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

368

FXUS63 KSGF 031140

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

640 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (5 to 15 degrees

  above normal) and mainly dry weather expected through the end

  of the week.



- The next main potential for rainfall is not expected until

  early to the middle of next week. 20-30% chances for mainly

  light rainfall totals across the area.



- A high level of uncertainty exists in the pattern for the

  middle of next week. Fall-like temperatures are as equally

  likely as continued above normal temperatures.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025



A pretty lackluster water vapor satellite imagery is present

across a majority of the CONUS tonight. A weak upper-level

trough is exiting our area and drier air, weaker flow, and

large-scale ridging are all building back into the region from

the west. As with the weak upper-level pattern, the surface

pattern for much of the CONUS is also pretty lackluster with

weak winds and high pressure in place. As we have seen with this

static pattern in place, patches of light ground fog are

present in some areas, especially low-lying locations. We can

probably expect this to be the case most mornings through the

weekend, but nothing overly dense is forecast.





Above normal temperatures through the weekend:



Also, as has been the case the past week with this static

upper-level and surface pattern, temperatures are expected to

continue above normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s

through the weekend. Lows will also be mild in the middle 50s to

lower 60s.





Slightly breezier this weekend, with moderately drier air:



What has not been discussed yet is a very meridional and

energetic trough currently entering the west coast. This trough

is progged to rotate to the NE around a longwave trough in NW

Canada. This will eject the trough off the Rockies and into the

northern Plains Saturday into Sunday, forcing a surface low

pressure system across ND/SD. The resulting surface pressure

gradient will tighten across the central Plains, and increase

south-southeasterly winds across our area this weekend. Nothing

overly breezy is expected, just some faster wind speeds than we

have seen in recent days. Expect 10-15 mph sustained winds with

gusts up to 20 mph at times, especially west of Highway 65.



Also of note, with the departing surface high pressure to the

east, increased wind speeds, and dry mid-levels, daytime mixing

will drop afternoon relative humidity values this weekend into

the 30-40% range. The NBM deterministic has been gradually

decreasing these forecasted values, and departing high pattern

recognition suggests some localized areas may see afternoon

relative humidity values below 30%. This, along with slightly

breezy conditions, would introduce very minor and localized fire

weather concerns this weekend, especially with drought-like

conditions and browning fall fuels across the area.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025



Above normal temperatures to continue early next week:



While the result of the ejecting shortwave and progressing

longwave troughs will be increased southwesterly atmospheric

flow across our area, the jet stream and resulting baroclinic

zone is expected to stay northwest of the area for the start of

next week. This will continue to allow above normal

temperatures in the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, with

lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. NBM spreads are very small

for these days, showing high confidence in these temperatures.





20-30% chances for rain ahead of front early next week:



Confidence in the weather pattern starts to break down as next

week progresses due to model differences in the evolution of the

upper-level and surface patterns. Ensemble clusters have come

into a little better agreement on the upper-level pattern, with

mainly only timing differences of the energetic trough across

Canada and the northern CONUS. This leads to increased

confidence in the gulf opening up with enhancing southerly mid-

level flow and a surface high pressure to the east. As a

result, 60+ F dewpoints are expected to return to the region,

bringing at least weak instability to the area. This may allow

for diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions

of the area Monday and Tuesday (15-30% chance).



The main differences in the ensemble clusters are with the

timing of the upper-level wave and associated surface cold

front. Depending on the timing of these features, additional

more widespread rain chances may become apparent as the front

pushes southward. For the moment, though, the uncertainty

leaves rain chances at 20-30% Tuesday into Wednesday morning,

which is the timeframe in which the front could push through.



While there is lot of talk in the uncertainty of rain chances,

for the most part, ensembles are in agreement that rainfall

totals across the area will largely be light and sparse. Only

a select few outliers of the 100 members have anything more

than half an inch of rain. That being said, instability is

expected to be in place across the area, and resulting scattered

thunderstorms would produce localized areas that could see more

than half an inch. What the ensembles do tell us is that any

widespread rain is expected to be light in total amounts.





Uncertainty in the following pattern mid to late next week:



There is then even more uncertainty in the southward progression

of cooler air behind the cold front, as well as the following

upper-level pattern. For example, the operational GFS has a deep

trough over our area Thursday/Friday, while the operational

ECMWF has an upper-level high bulging into our region for the

same timeframe. As a result, there is quite a bit of uncertainty

in temperatures and rain chances beyond Wednesday next week.

This is manifesting in NBM deterministic forecasts being unable

to pick a side. The previous forecast package had highs in the

lower 70s end of next week, this forecast package it is back to

upper 70s and lower 80s. LREF histogram plots depict the reason

being an equal amount of members showing highs in the 60s vs.

70s vs. 80s. So we have an equal chance of seeing fall-like

weather finally entering southwest Missouri as we do seeing

above normal temperatures in the 80s persisting into middle

October.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025



Some light mist is intermittently bringing MVFR visibilities to

BBG. With sunrise around the corner, this is only expected to

last until 13Z. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail for

the entire TAF period at all sites, with 5-10 kt south-

southeasterly winds and mostly clear skies--save for a sparse

6-7 kft cu field around JLN and SGF between 18-01Z.





&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Price

LONG TERM...Price

AVIATION...Price