Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

692

FXUS63 KSGF 101059

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

559 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Chances for rain and a few rumbles of thunder (20-50%) later

  this morning into the early afternoon for areas near the MO/AR

  border. Severe weather is not expected.



- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather for areas along and

  north of I-44 for Tuesday evening. Currently, the main threats

  are 60 mph damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail.



- Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next

  weekend with highs in the mid 80s by Thursday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026



Scattered high clouds are pushing into the area from the

southwest as convection moves through SE OK/NW AR. Temperatures

have stayed warm in the low 60s tonight. A surface low pressure

system will pass to our southwest over the course of this

morning and bring a 20-50% chance of thunderstorms to the MO/AR

border. Storms are expected to remain sub-severe, and not

everyone will see rain. There will be abundant dry air that the

forecasted convection will have to overcome this afternoon that

already eliminated our rain chances from occurring earlier. If

rain does occur, accumulations will be light at <0.25". Skies

will be mostly to partly cloudy for most of the day with highs

reaching the lower 70s and northeasterly winds gusting near 20

mph. Rain will taper off by late afternoon and clouds will begin

to clear for Sunday night. Lows will be much cooler in the 40s.





Mid-level high pressure starts to build over the four corners

region on Monday. Winds will remain easterly on Monday for us and

highs will reach the mid 80s with sunny skies expected. The dry

airmass will still be in place to start the week and dewpoints

will stay in the mid 40s making Monday feel warm but dry. Monday

night will be clear with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 238 AM CDT

Sun May 10 2026



Tuesday is the start of our warm up over the next several days.

Southerly flow returns on Tuesday and moisture begins to

return to the area. Skies will be sunny with high temperatures

in the lower 80s. A cold front is forecast to move through late

Tuesday into Wednesday and will bring us our next chance for

shower and thunderstorms. SPC currently has areas along and

north of I-44 in a Marginal risk (1/4) for severe weather. Those

areas over SE KS and central MO are forecast to have the better

moisture with dewpoints in the 50s. Though, there is some

uncertainty as far as instability and how the low-level

convergence plays out ahead of the front. Right now, the severe

threat appears isolated with the main threats being damaging

wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter sized hail.



The cold front will bring down our dewpoints and flip our winds

out of the northeast, but it won`t really impact our

temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will still be in the upper 70s

to lower 80s. Winds turn southerly by Thursday and dewpoints

really start to increase for the end of the week. Highs will

creep into the upper 80s by Saturday and dewpoints reach the mid

60s as well. This will make it feel hot and humid for the end

of the week into next weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026



Scattered clouds are over the area as a low pressure system

passes to our southwest and a warm front sits over northern

Arkansas. Widespread rain isn`t expected today, and VFR

ceilings will persist. Winds will be northeasterly today and

gust around 20 mph. Low-end rain chances are expected around 18z

for BBG and near the MO/AR border. Rain is forecast to dissipate

near 00z.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Soria

LONG TERM...Soria

AVIATION...Soria