Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

103

FXUS63 KSGF 261013

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

513 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Heat and humidity continue through at least Tuesday. Daily

  highs in the lower to middle 90s with maximum afternoon heat

  index values around 100 to 108. Heat Advisory remains in

  effect until 7PM Tuesday.



- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into

  this evening. The main potential hazards will be wind gusts up

  to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and localized heavy rainfall.



- Confidence increasing in cooler temperatures by the end of

  next week. Daily rain chances (20-40%) will occur at times

  during the middle and end of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025



Showers and thunderstorms have developed again early this

morning from central Oklahoma into northern Missouri. This

activity is developing as an upper level shortwave trough moves

northeast through the region. Much of this activity should

remain south and north of the area through the early morning

hours but could clip portions of the far northwestern of the

area. This activity will then move off to the northeast this

morning. Lightning and brief locally heavy rainfall will be the

risk with any early morning storms.



The upper level ridge remains over the region with the western

side of the ridge over the area. Highs will again warm into the

lower to middle 90s this afternoon with afternoon/early evening

heat index values in the 100 to 105 range today. The entire

area remains in a Heat Advisory for today through Tuesday.



Instability will increase as the cap weakens across the area

with the heating of the day. There will not be a lot of lift

across the area today as the shortwave tough moves off to the

northeast. It is possible that an outflow boundary from the

current storms to the west and north of the area moves into the

Ozarks and stalls. Any boundary with weak the cap could help

trigger a storm this afternoon into the evening hours. The

overall severe risk is low across the area today but a few of

the stronger storms could be capable of wind gusts up to 50 mph

and frequent lightning. The storms will be slow moving with

locally heavy rainfall possible. There is a low risk for some

localized flooding where multiple storms develop and sit over

one location. These pulse type storms remain possible into the

mid evening hours as storm development may occur with outflow

boundaries moving to the east to northeast.



Overnight uncapped MUCAPE will remain in place across portions

of central Missouri into early Sunday morning. A low level jet

may be able to kick up a few storms but the jet will likely

weaken by the early morning hours. Overall chances for storm

develop overnight is low, and if storms can develop, coverage

will be isolated in nature.



The upper level ridge builds to the west and remains over the

region on Sunday. Highs in the lower to middle 90s with heat

index values in the 100 to 108 range will occur Sunday

afternoon. A few afternoon pulse type storms will again be

possible, mainly along and east of Highway 65 as drier air in

the mid levels of the atmosphere advects east into the area.

Lows will only cool into the middle 70s tonight and Sunday

nights.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025



The upper level ridge remains centered over the region early

next week with the heat continuing. Highs will warm into the

middle 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 108 range both

Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances will overall be low both days,

but there could be a low chances for a pop up isolated storm

across portions of central Missouri both Monday and Tuesday

afternoon. The Heat Advisory remains in a affect for the entire

area through 7PM Tuesday.



The upper level ridge then moves back to the west during the

middle to end of next week with the area getting into a

northwest flow upper level pattern allowing a front and slightly

cooler conditions to move into the area. There are still some

timing difference on when this occurs. Until the ridge moves

west of the area the warmer air mass will remain in place so its

quite possible that highs in the middle 90s occur again on

Wednesday. But with the ridge starting to flatten it is also

possible convection starts to move southeast into the area by

Wednesday afternoon allowing for cooler temperatures. Models

then show highs near to slightly below normal Highs in the lower

to middle 80s late next week into next weekend. Normal highs

are in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees for this time of year.

The northwest flow pattern could remain in place into next

weekend and will have to watch for upper level energy moving

through the northwest flow into the area and could generate some

showers and storms at times from Wednesday into next weekend

but will be dependent on exactly where the ridge is located and

the timing and track of any shortwave troughs riding through the

northwest flow.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 512 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025



Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be

possible during the afternoon into the early evening hours

today, generally in the 17Z to 2Z timeframe. Coverage in this

activity will not be widespread and confidence in a TAF site

being affected is too low to include any mention of thunder in

the TAFs at this time.



South to southeasterly winds will continue across the area

through the TAF period and could see some gusts up to 15 to

20kts at times this afternoon.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-

     077>083-088>098-101>106.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Wise