[SEP 13 8 AM AST] Northern Leeward Islands (AL94): Surface observations indicate a small area of low pressure is located over the northern Leeward Islands. The system continues to produce showers and thunderstorms this morning, but they have not become any better organized. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the northern Leeward Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.