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Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)

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The FY19-FY21 Strategic Implementation Plan  

Building on the accomplishments and momentum of efforts over the past year, the first annual update to the Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) for the Evolution of NGGPS to a National Unified Modeling System, the Unified Forecast System (UFS), is available.  The link is here.

The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is envisioned to be a community-based, coupled comprehensive Earth system modeling system,designed to support the Weather Enterprise and to be the source system for NOAA's operational numerical weather prediction applications, as well as to serve both the Research & Development, and Operational communities engaged in the numerical prediction of the Earth System. This document is the UFS Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) for FY 2019 - 2021. It is the first annual update to the initial SIP and describes the actions required of community participants in the next one to three years as they work together to evolve the UFS.

FV3GFS Official Evaluation

Information about the model and implementation timeline, as well as links to data, see statistics, and view forecast images are available at the FV3GFS Official Evaluation website. The link is here. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/

Pending a successful validation, the preliminary timeline calls for the FV3GFS to replace the operational GFS at the end of the calendar year. The purpose of this upgrade is to confirm that the FV3 core can successfully replace the spectral model core in operations. The Zhao-Carr microphysics are being replaced by the GFDL microphysics in the FV3GFS, but most of the GFS physics will be retained in this package. Getting the FV3 core into operations will pave the way for a GFS upgrade in 2020 that will feature advanced physics and higher resolution.

Public Release of the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)

The DTC’s Global Model Test Bed (GMTB) is pleased to announce the public release of the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a library of physical parameterizations for atmospheric numerical models. It is distributed with a framework that enables its use with any host application for which a connecting cap is written. In this release, the CCPP has been bundled with the GMTB Single Column Model (SCM) and contains all the physical parameterizations used in the current operational NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS).

For more information, and to learn how to download, build, run, and contribute to the code, please visit the CCPP release page at https://dtcenter.org/gmtb/users/ccpp/. Questions and comments can be directed to gmtb-help@ucar.edu.

FV3GFS Version 1 Public Release

NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is pleased to announce the Version 1 Release of the NEMS FV3GFS Modeling System to the community through github.com (public version) and NOAA Virtual Lab (developers version). FV3GFS Version 1 is potentially scheduled to replace the Global Spectral Model (GSM) currently in operations at NCEP by December 2019.

This Version 1 is a significant enhancement to the Version 0 Community Release of the FV3GFS on May 15, 2017. In the past year, significant advancements were made to the FV3GFS as a community model. This release allows community users to gain access to the latest version of FV3GFS modeling system through public repository on github.com, and run forecast experiments with pre-processing and post-processing tools. Highlights of this release can be found on the NGGPS Implementation page. 

Directions for accessing the public release, details on the contents of the release, and additional information about the NEMS FV3GFS can be viewed in the Virtual Lab community at the link https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/fv3gfs.

NGGPS Overview

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) has the responsibility to provide weather, water, and climate information to protect life and property, and enhance the national economy. The NWS mission is to provide the best possible guidance to a wide variety of customers, including emergency managers, forecasters, and the aviation community

The NWS R2O Initiative is expanding and accelerating critical weather forecasting research to operation to address growing service demands, and increase the accuracy of weather forecasts through accelerated development and implementation of current global weather prediction models, improved data assimilation techniques, and improved software architecture and system engineering. The new unified coupled model system will have the flexibility and capability to implement model component improvements as they are developed.

flow chart of NGGPS

The NWS Research to Operations (R2O) initiative's five year plan is to upgrade the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully coupled Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) within NEMS (NOAA Environmental Modeling System) infrastructure. Using advanced high performance computing architectures, the system will incorporate the most recent advances in weather prediction modeling from NOAA and the research community.

  • Implement a weather-scale, fully-coupled NWP System
  • Extend forecast skill beyond 8 to 10 days
  • Improve hurricane track and intensity forecast
  • Extend weather forecasting to 30 days