National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

NOAA Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation: Plans for the Twenty-First Century

A Report to be submitted to Congress, October 2018

Draft annotated outline of NOAA's draft S2S report

The report will serve as a guidepost for NOAA planning and execution, as well as to inform the public and NOAA’s stakeholders on its efforts on subseasonal and seasonal (S2S) forecasting. It will trace the continuum of effort for S2S, from products and services to the innovations needed to enable and improve them. The report is being organized around two main goals: (i) improving the skill of the S2S forecasts, and (ii) enhancing the value of S2S products for stakeholders.

In providing the annotated outline of this report, the NWS requests and will consider all substantive comments and information provided during the public comment period as we finalize this report. Feedback is sought on the scope of the outline and potential utility of this report, from relevant Federal, regional, State, Tribal, and local government agencies, research institutions, and the private sector.

A draft copy of the annotated outline can be found here.


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An illustration of potential sources of predictive skill (vertical axis), from the atmospheric state (yellow), the land-surface state (green), and the ocean state (blue) over various forecast lead times (horizontal axis). This is figure 3.2 in the report "NOAA Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation: Plans for the Twenty-First Century". Credit: NOAA graphic, adapted from original by Paul Dirmeyer.