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636
FXUS65 KTFX 262355
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
455 PM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms will diminish by late afternoon.

- A strong cold front will move southward through the area late
tonight and Saturday morning.

- Some light snow will accompany the cold front, along with very
cold wind chill values.

- This cold snap will be short, with temperatures starting to warm
back up on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 252 PM MST Fri Dec 26 2025/

- Meteorological Overview:
An upper level disturbance is moving eastward across MT this
afternoon. With just enough instability, around 400 CAPE, some
isolated severe storms have developed. Any remaining severe storms
will diminish by late afternoon, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. Additionally, the high wind warning and
winter weather advisory currently in effect for the West
Yellowstone area, those statements will expire by late afternoon,
if not sooner.

Otherwise, the main attention will turn towards the strong cold
front that will move southward through the CWA late tonight and on
Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to fall into the single
digits below zero by late Saturday morning and fall into the 20s
over far Southwest MT by late Saturday afternoon. Convective snow
showers will accompany the cold front. A few snow showers could be
heavy over Southwest MT. There is a possibility of a snow squall
on Saturday morning, mostly along/south of I-90 from Butte to
Bozeman, but the probability is low right now. Otherwise over the
northern Plains, snow accumulations look minor, generally less
than an inch. In the mountains, there will be more snow, mostly a
2 to 5 inch snowfall for the mountains, with Glacier Park seeing
a bit more. The winter weather advisory was expanded a bit to
cover more mountain passes over Central and Southwest MT.

The other concern on Saturday will be the wind chills. Expect wind
chills to fall below 25 below over much of North Central MT on
Saturday morning. Thus a cold advisory issued for much of North
Central MT. The exception is the Havre/Harlem areas, it will be
near 40 below so an extreme cold warning issued for that area.
Warm air starts to move back into the area by Saturday evening, so
the cold statements start to expire already from west to east
starting late Saturday evening.

This cold snap will be short lived, as the warmer air really
starts to move back into the western portions of the CWA by
Sunday. Generally dry conditions, along with a warming trend
expected for the first half of next week.

For Thu/Fri of late next week, expect a brisk westerly flow aloft
to develop. This will increase the winds over North Central MT,
along with increase the chances for rain/snow showers, mainly
over the mountains.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main concern through Saturday will be the timing of the cold
front and not only how fast the cold air moves in, but how fast
does the cold air move out. It is possible the forecast models
could be too quick in moving out the cold air on Sunday over North
Central MT and temperatures might need to be lowered a bit.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
27/00Z TAF Period

The main concern for the TAF period will be a cold front passage
happening between 27/07z through 27/14z. This will bring a sharp
change in winds to the west/northwest. The front will also bring
snow showers through Saturday afternoon, with a low end threat
for snow squalls along the frontal passage. This front will drop
conditions to as low as IFR/LIFR at times from cigs and vis with
snow showers. -Wilson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 7 9 0 24 / 20 50 0 0
CTB -3 -1 -7 20 / 20 20 0 0
HLN 23 25 3 20 / 60 60 10 0
BZN 25 29 3 20 / 30 80 10 0
WYS 20 24 -7 15 / 60 90 20 0
DLN 23 27 7 21 / 30 50 0 0
HVR 3 5 -10 8 / 20 40 0 0
LWT 11 15 -2 19 / 10 50 10 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST Saturday for East Glacier
Park Region-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday for
East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Northern High Plains.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM MST Saturday for
Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-
Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Western and Central Chouteau County.

Extreme Cold Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday for
Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Hill County-Northern
Blaine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM MST
Saturday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin and
Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little Belt
and Highwood Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Upper
Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday
for Fergus County below 4500ft-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for Gallatin
and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Madison River
Valley.

&&

$$
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