Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

152
FNUS55 KTFX 312000
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
200 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Critical fire weather conditions will be a concern on
Saturday and Sunday across all Fire Weather Zones.

Highs on Saturday will range from 100 to 110 degrees with
minimum RH values in the single digits to mid teens. Winds will
start to pick up as early as 2 PM with the cold front expected
to arrive between 5 PM and 7 PM. Winds are expected to shift
from the south/southwest to out of the west while increasing
through the evening and overnight hours. Even though Sunday will
be relatively cooler, poor overnight RH recovery followed by low
minimum RH in the afternoon and strong winds will keep elevated to
critical fire weather concerns through the evening hours.

MTZ112-011045-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
200 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear. Areas of smoke.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......54-60.
24 hr trend......1 degree down...7 degrees up higher elevations.
* Max Humidity..........42-52 percent...32-40 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......3 percent down...12 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
Ridges.............North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........7000-8500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke in the
morning, then patchy smoke in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......92-102...81-90 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........10-15 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph
increasing to southwest around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Windy. South winds 15 to 20 mph increasing
to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 13000-13500
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to southwest
around 35 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Patchy smoke through the
night.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......52-59.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up...7 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Max Humidity..........40-49 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent down...1 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Very windy. West winds around 40 mph.
Ridges.............Very windy. West winds around 40 mph.
* Mixing Height.........12000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 45 mph increasing to around 55
mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......72-82...62-72 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......20 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........12-18 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Very windy. West winds around 40 mph
decreasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Very windy. West winds around 35 mph
decreasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 8000-9500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 50 mph decreasing to around 35
mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Windy. Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s. Northwest winds around 30 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper
80s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.

$$

MTZ113-011045-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
200 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear. Areas of smoke in the
evening, then patchy smoke after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......56-65.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........47-57 percent...33-43 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......20 percent down...39 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
east after midnight.
Ridges.............North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........6500-8000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the east
after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Patchy smoke.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......99-105...90-96 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........6-11 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 12000-13500
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph increasing to south
around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Patchy smoke through the night.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......59-68.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........30-40 percent.
24 hr trend......22 percent down...6 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 15 to 20 mph increasing
to around 30 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 15 to 20 mph increasing
to northwest around 30 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........13500 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 25 mph increasing to around 40
mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......82-87...73-79 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......19 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........7-12 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds around 30 mph decreasing
to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 10000-10500
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 40 mph decreasing to around 30
mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Cooler, windy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
70s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper
80s. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower
90s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 90.

$$

MTZ114-011045-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
200 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear. Areas of smoke through the
night.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......56-63.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down...3 degrees up higher
elevations.
* Max Humidity..........37-47 percent.
24 hr trend......18 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
west after midnight.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........9500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke in the
morning, then patchy smoke in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......93-102...77-87 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........10-18 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph
increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 12500-13000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 20 to 25 mph increasing to around
35 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Patchy smoke.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......54-60...47-55 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up...10 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Max Humidity..........39-49 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent up...11 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Very windy. West winds 35 to 45 mph.
Ridges.............Strong winds. West winds 35 to 45 mph.
* Mixing Height.........10500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 55 to 60 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......74-84...59-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......17 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........11-21 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds around 30 mph decreasing
to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Very windy. West winds around 40 mph
decreasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 8500-9500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 55 mph decreasing to around 35
mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Windy. Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
mid 60s. Northwest winds around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.

$$

MTZ115-011045-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
200 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear. Areas of smoke.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......58-66.
24 hr trend......11 degrees down...6 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Max Humidity..........38-48 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
Ridges.............North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........9000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......North 20 to 25 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke in the
morning, then patchy smoke in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......100-107...92-97 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........6-11 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 14000-14500
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph increasing to
southwest around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Patchy smoke through the night.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......60-70.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........31-41 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent down...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 15 to 20 mph increasing
to around 25 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 15 to 20 mph increasing
to northwest around 25 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........13500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......84-90...76-85 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......16 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........7-12 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds around 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 9500-10000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Not as warm. Windy. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 70. Northwest winds
around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 70s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Warmer. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
lower 90s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Highs in the lower 90s.

$$

MTZ116-118-011045-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
200 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear. Patchy smoke in the evening,
then areas of smoke after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......57-63.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........44-54 percent...34-44 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......41 percent down...18 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
Ridges.............North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........9000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Patchy smoke through the day.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......91-100...81-91 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........8-13 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent down...14 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to
southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 13500-14000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to southwest
around 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Patchy smoke.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......56-61...50-59 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........43-53 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 30 to 35 mph.
Ridges.............Very windy. West winds 30 to 35 mph.
* Mixing Height.........13500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 40 to 45 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......78-88...66-76 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........12-19 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds around 30 mph decreasing
to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 3000-4500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 5500 ft agl early in
the afternoon increasing to 7500 ft agl early in the afternoon
increasing to 9500-10500 ft agl decreasing to 8500 ft agl late in
the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......West around 40 mph decreasing to around 30
mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Cooler, windy. Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.
Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
lower 80s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.

$$

MTZ117-011045-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
200 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear. Areas of smoke in the
evening, then patchy smoke after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......56-63.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........40-50 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent up...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southeast after midnight.
Ridges.............North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........10000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Patchy smoke through the day.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......93-103...85-95 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......15 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........7-12 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down...8 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 12000-13000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to southwest
around 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Patchy smoke through the night.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......54-62.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max Humidity..........37-47 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent down...3 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........12500 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......79-88...72-82 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......17 degrees down...11 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........9-18 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent down...5 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds around 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 9500-10000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Cooler, windy. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds
around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s. East winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Warmer. Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs
in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper
80s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s.

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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766
FXUS65 KTFX 312342
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
542 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region through the
end of the week.

- Hot, dry, windy conditions expected on Saturday and Sunday with
elevated to critical fire weather concerns through the
afternoon.

- A brief cool down is expected Sunday evening through Tuesday
before temperatures start warming up again.

- Dry conditions are expected to persist over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 210 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

The upper-level ridge pattern continues Friday which will bring
another day of hot temperatures to the region. Drier PWATs and
little forcing Friday will keep most of the region dry, but I can`t
rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in Southwest MT during
the afternoon. Temperatures peak on Saturday as the ridge
breakdowns and southwest flow increases. Lower elevations are
forecasted to reach into the 100s across north-Central MT and the
upper 90s in Southwest MT. The ridge breakdown also brings an
increase in 700mb winds through Sunday, peaking late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning to 60-70kts along the Northern
Rocky Mountain Front. As a result, strong winds develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front windy conditions develop elsewhere Saturday
and Sunday. This with the combination of hot temperatures and low
relative humidity creates concerns for elevated to critical fire
weather conditions (see FIRE WEATHER section).

A mostly dry frontal passage Sunday will help bring a relief in
the heat through the first half of next week. Northwest flow
aloft will help keep temperatures down through Tuesday, before
very warm temperatures return. Low moisture throughout the week
will keep conditions dry. -Wilson

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Weekend Heat:

Model agreement remains high on the potential for widespread high
temperatures in the upper 90s to upper 100s on Saturday. The
previous Extreme Heat Watches have now been upgraded to Extreme
Heat Warnings with additional Heat Advisories added for
surrounding areas.

Cascade county and the lower elevations of Judith Basin county
will get hot during the day but manage to cool off. Chouteau and
Fergus counties along with the Bears Paw zone will be more at risk
for maintaining the warm overnight lows which will provide
additional heat stress. Thus the Cascade and Judith Basin warnings
will end earlier while the Chouteau, Fergus, and Bears Paw
warnings will continue until around the time the cooler air from
the front is expected to reach those zones. The Gallatin and
Madison Valley zones were added to the Extreme Heat Warning based
on the expected highs compared to climatology. Both Bozeman and
Ennis are at risk for having a top 10 high temperature event on
Saturday which means this kind of heat is generally on the rare
side for these areas and may have greater impacts for both
residents and those recreating in the area. Given that these two
valleys will cool off Sunday morning, these warnings will also
drop off earlier compared to the North-Central Montana zones.

Supplemental Heat Advisories were issued for surrounding areas to
bring attention to locations that might not get as hot or have as
significant impacts but still be a concern for those who are
without air conditioning or plan on spending a significant amount
of time outdoors.

Strong Winds Saturday/Sunday:

There is still strong model agreement in strong winds developing
over the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning with the strongest winds expected between midnight and 8
AM Sunday. With these winds being well outside of climatology for
this time of year, the potential for impacts to those recreating
along the Rocky Mountain Front, and the overall confidence in the
event occurring, the decision was made to upgrade the watch to a
High Wind Warning. Additionally, with there being strong hints in
the models that the front could arrive a little earlier, the High
Wind Warning will start at noon on Saturday to account for this
possibility.

Across the rest of the region gusts between 35 and 50 mph are
possible with most locations outside the warning unlikely to reach
high wind criteria. But there still will be a concern for those
traveling along north-south roads as locally stronger crosswinds
in some of the typical wind-prone areas may make travel difficult
for high profile vehicles and those towing trailers. -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
01/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF
Period. Across all terminals after 01/18Z winds will begin to
increase with the strongest winds being at the KCTB terminal. At the
KCTB terminal by the end of this TAF Period winds will gust in
excess of 30 kt. Across most of the TAF sites smoke from
wildfires will reduce slantwise visibility. -IG

For KGTF: Winds will be light through 18Z. Between 18Z and 00Z
winds will increase and shift from the southwest to the west.
Between 21Z and 00Z there is a 50% chance for a 15 kt crosswind.
-IG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday
afternoon through Sunday evening across North-Central, Central,
and Southwest Montana.

On Saturday, highs in the upper 90s to upper 100s combined with
minimum RH values as low as 8%. Winds will start to pick up in the
afternoon with a wind shift from the south/southwest to the west
as the cold front arrives. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible along
the Northern Plains with gusts up to 75 mph possible along the
immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front.

Poor overnight RH recovery into Sunday morning is expected with
maximum RH values in the 20-40% range. Even though Sunday
afternoon will be cooler, RH values are still expected to drop
into the upper single digits to mid teens through the afternoon
with frequent gusts over 35 mph. This will raise concerns not
only for ongoing fires but any potential new starts that occur.

Given the expected threat for critical fire weather conditions,
the watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from Saturday
afternoon to Sunday evening. -thor

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 60 102 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 54 97 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 60 100 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 57 100 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 47 91 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 55 94 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 57 105 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 58 100 59 86 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 3 AM MDT Sunday for
Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Canyon Ferry Area-
Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern
Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Elkhorn and
Boulder Mountains-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill
County-Meagher County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Northern
Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-Eastern
Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-Helena and
Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-Hill and
Blaine Counties-Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain
District-Rocky Mountain Front-Lincoln Ranger District of the
Helena National Forest.

High Wind Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon MDT Sunday for East
Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Northern High Plains.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to noon MDT Sunday for
Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below
4500ft-Western and Central Chouteau County.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 3 AM MDT Sunday for
Cascade County below 5000ft-Gallatin Valley-Judith Basin County
and Judith Gap-Madison River Valley.

&&

$$
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