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922
FXUS65 KTFX 202320
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
420 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be windy tonight into tomorrow morning across North-
central Montana with the strongest winds in locations near the
mountains.

- Wednesday through Friday it will gradually cool down each day
to have well-below seasonal average temperatures on Thursday
and Friday.

- It will be mostly dry through the entire forecast period and
will begin to warm back up Sunday through early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 239 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there is northerly flow aloft this will keep cool
temperatures across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana
this afternoon. This afternoon snow will linger across the Little
Belts and western Fergus County. This snow will gradually end by
this evening. This evening into tomorrow morning another shortwave
will move south from Canada. This will bring gusty winds to North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. The strongest winds will
be near the mountains of North-central Montana. On Wednesday
northwesterly flow aloft remains which will cool down temperatures
to around seasonal averages with dry conditions. On Thursday a
surface high slides south from Canada into North Dakota. This
combined with northwest flow aloft will pull some cold air from
Canada into North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. The
coldest temperatures will be in Hill and Blaine County.

On Friday northwest flow aloft will remain over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep the cold and dry
conditions over the area. On Saturday the northwest flow aloft over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will remain, but
the cold air will begin to slowly move out of the area. On Sunday an
upper-level ridge will begin to move over North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up
with mostly dry weather. On Monday the upper-level ridge remains
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will
allow temperatures to warm up further with dry weather. -IG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Tonight through Wednesday morning there is greater than a 60% chance
for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater in Blaine County, portions of
Fergus County, and near the Sweet Grass Hills. Given that the
impacts from the wind in Northern Blaine County and Fergus County
are expected to be limited and isolated, a High Wind Warning was
issued for the Bears Paw Mountains (Southern Blaine County) and the
Sweet Grass Hills from midnight tonight to 8 AM tomorrow morning.
Future shifts will continue to evaluate Northern Blaine County and
Fergus County for the need to add them to the High Wind Warning.

On Thursday morning there is greater than a 50% chance for low
temperatures below zero along most of the Hi-Line. On Friday morning
there is a 25 - 50% chance for low temperatures of 20 below zero
across Hill and Northern Blaine Counties. Elsewhere across North-
central Montana there is greater than a 30% chance for low
temperatures of 10 below zero Friday morning. -IG


&&

.AVIATION...
21/00Z TAF Period

The initial concern this TAF period will be for lingering low clouds
across eastern portions of the plains. Another round of gusty
northwest winds develops later tonight, initially near the Canadian
border, spreading south across the plains into early Wednesday
morning. At least a brief period of low clouds will move in across
the region late tonight into Wednesday before slowly subsiding
toward the afternoon Wednesday.

The probability for snow Wednesday morning at any terminal was too
low to warrant mention at this time. Mountains will be obscured at
times late tonight into Wednesday. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 18 27 6 16 / 0 10 0 0
CTB 15 25 1 12 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 14 28 9 22 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 9 28 7 24 / 0 0 0 0
WYS -5 25 -4 25 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 10 32 10 28 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 14 23 1 8 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 15 22 4 13 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MST Wednesday
for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and
Liberty.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

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