Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

348
FNUS55 KTFX 140950
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the districts today,
along with windy conditions, especially this afternoon. Lighter
winds and drier conditions develop on Tue, with temperatures
starting a slow warming trend on Thu. Showers will affect the
central and southern districts by Friday. Brusda

MTZ112-142300-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......54-60...47-52 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees down...4 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........61-71 percent...74-84 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......12 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds 30 to 35 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 2500-4000 ft
agl in the late morning and afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 40 to 45 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......38-43.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........93-100 percent.
24 hr trend......22 percent up...3 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph becoming north
10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2500-4000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 30 mph becoming north 15
to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......53-62...47-52 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........59-69 percent...74-84 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......4 percent down...12 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 4500-5000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......East 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs around 60. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. North winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
60s.

$$

MTZ113-142300-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers or
thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......57-62...48-53 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........58-68 percent...75-85 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......28 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 4000-4500 ft
agl in the late morning and afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......West around 35 mph increasing to northwest
around 45 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......38-43.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........90-100 percent.
24 hr trend......17 percent up...unchanged higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds around 25 mph
decreasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2000-3500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft
agl in the late evening and overnight.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 35 mph decreasing to 20 to
25 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......60-66...55-60 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......1 degree up...7 degrees up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........42-52 percent...52-62 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......14 percent down...22 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 15 to 20 mph shifting to the east
in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs around 70.

$$

MTZ114-142300-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the
morning. Slight chance of showers through the day.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......56-63...42-52 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........47-57 percent...71-81 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......1 percent down...5 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Very windy. West winds around 35 mph
decreasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 5000-6000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 40 to 45 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......38-43...32-38 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........88-98 percent.
24 hr trend......22 percent up...unchanged higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph becoming southwest
around 5 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........4000 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 25 mph becoming south 15 to 20
mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......57-65...47-57 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........48-58 percent...60-70 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged...21 percent down higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 4000-5000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. North
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
60s.

$$

MTZ115-142300-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......58-63...49-57 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........53-63 percent.
24 hr trend......26 percent up...17 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Very windy. West winds 30 to 35 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 30 to 35 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 4500-6000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 40 mph becoming northwest and
increasing to around 50 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......38-43.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........88-98 percent.
24 hr trend......18 percent up...1 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds around 30 mph
becoming west 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds around 25 mph
becoming west 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........3000-4500 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 40 mph becoming west 20 to
25 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......65-70...57-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent.
24 hr trend......16 percent down...22 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 6000-6500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid
40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 50. Highs
in the lower 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

$$

MTZ116-118-142300-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......53-63...43-53 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......12 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........45-55 percent...60-70 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......7 percent up...22 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 6000-7000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 35 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......33-40.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........84-94 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged...15 percent down higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph becoming south
around 5 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........6000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 25 mph becoming south 10
to 15 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-72...53-63 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........33-43 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent down...23 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to
the northeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-6500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 60s. North winds 20 to 25 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.

$$

MTZ117-142300-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......54-64...43-53 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees down...15 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........47-57 percent...60-70 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......16 percent up...22 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Very windy. West winds around 35 mph.
Ridges.............Very windy. West winds around 35 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-5500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 45 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......32-41.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........85-95 percent.
24 hr trend......12 percent up...14 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds around 25 mph becoming
south 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds around 25 mph
becoming west 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........3000-4000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 40 mph becoming southwest
20 to 25 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TUESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-68...54-63 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up...13 degrees up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........36-46 percent.
24 hr trend......17 percent down...24 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5500-7000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. North winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.

$$

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375
FXUS65 KTFX 141005
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
405 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow this morning over the Rockies, with scattered rain
showers and windy conditions elsewhere today.

- It turns drier on Tuesday, with a slow warming trend late week.

- Another widespread rain event expected over Central and
Southwest MT Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

- Meteorological Overview:
A closed upper level low will slowly move eastwards across the
northern portions of MT today. Scattered rain
showers/thunderstorms will affect mostly the eastern portions of
the CWA this morning, with rain/snow falling over the Rocky
Mountain Front. Snow levels this morning will be around 6500 feet.
An inch or two of snow is still possible this morning at ridge
tops along the divide. Windy conditions develop this afternoon
over North Central MT, as the upper level low exits the area.

For Tue through Wednesday, expect drier and not as windy
conditions over the CWA. Seasonable temperatures are expected.

On Thursday, the next upper level approaches Southwest MT by late
in the day. Expect increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms
over Southwest MT, with the precipitation spreading northward into
Central MT by Friday morning. At this time, since this system is
expected to be quick moving, precipitation amounts will be light
side for most areas.

Showers should exit the eastern portions of the CWA on Saturday
morning, with generally dry conditions the rest of Saturday and
into early next week. Afternoon temperatures will likely be near
normal next weekend as well.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main concern today will be snow levels over the Rockies this
morning and windy conditions over the Plains by this afternoon.

Overall, temperatures have cooled to near freezing along the
divide for elevations above 6500 feet this morning. Light precip
should redevelop this morning as the upper level low moves
through. Day time heating will limit snow accumulations, thus no
winter weather advisory for snow will be issued at this time.

In terms of winds, it is still looking like Fergus County will
have the highest potential for strong wind gusts over 55 mph
today, so the high wind watch was changed to a high wind warning
for that county. For Judith Basin, the overall probability of
warning wind gusts is generally less than 60 percent, thus the
high wind watch was cancelled. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
14/12Z TAF Period

Scattered showers/thunderstorms this morning will give way to
drier but windy conditions this afternoon. Snow levels this
morning will be around 6500 feet along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Expect drier conditions to move into the CWA overnight, along with
lighter winds. Mountains/passes will be obscured across the CWA
this morning, with improvements expected this afternoon/evening.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 63 42 66 45 / 20 10 0 20
CTB 57 40 56 42 / 60 30 10 60
HLN 63 38 71 46 / 10 0 0 10
BZN 62 34 73 38 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 58 23 66 26 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 63 33 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 62 40 66 45 / 50 10 0 60
LWT 59 37 68 41 / 30 10 0 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
evening for Fergus County below 4500ft-Snowy and Judith
Mountains.

&&

$$
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