Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

949
FNUS55 KTFX 121007
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Snow diminishes this afternoon before another round of snow
brings wintry impacts along the Rocky Mountain Front and the
plains tonight into Monday morning. Temperatures warm slightly
next week, but there will be day to day opportunities for
scattered shower activity and mostly mountain snow, especially
during the second half of the week.

MTZ112-122215-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......31-39...25-30 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......32 degrees down...26 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........65-75 percent...77-87 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......32 percent up...41 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds around 30 mph
becoming north 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Windy. North winds around 30 mph decreasing
to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........2500-4000 ft agl increasing to 4000-4500 ft
agl early in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......North around 40 mph decreasing to around 25
mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the
evening, then snow likely after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......18-24.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........87-97 percent.
24 hr trend......18 percent up...unchanged higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2000-3500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast around 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.COLUMBUS DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Cloudy. Snow in the morning, then chance of
snow in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......28-36...23-28 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Min Humidity..........70-80 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1500-3000 ft agl increasing to 3000-3500 ft
agl in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......East 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the lower
20s. Highs around 40. East winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow. Lows in
the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds around
5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the lower 50s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s.

$$

MTZ113-122215-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of snow and rain in
the morning, then slight chance of snow in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......38-43...31-36 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......31 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........59-69 percent...72-82 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......21 percent up...33 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds around 25 mph
decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........3000-4500 ft agl increasing to 4500-5000 ft
agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......23-28...15-24 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........78-88 percent.
24 hr trend......16 percent down...unchanged higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2500-4000 ft agl decreasing to 2000-2500 ft
agl after midnight.
* Transport Winds.......North 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.COLUMBUS DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the
morning. Slight chance of snow in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......37-42...29-34 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Min Humidity..........52-62 percent...67-77 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......6 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1500-3000 ft agl increasing to 3500-4000 ft
agl in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......East 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper
40s. East winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain likely. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs around 50.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the lower 50s.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain and slight chance of
snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 50s.

$$

MTZ114-122215-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Cloudy. Snow in the morning, then chance of
snow in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......34-39...24-33 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......33 degrees down...22 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........65-75 percent...81-91 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......38 percent up...28 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10
to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............North winds 20 to 25 mph becoming northeast
10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........2500-4000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......North around 30 mph becoming northeast 20
to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................40 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Cloudy. Snow.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......19-24...13-19 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down...12 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Max Humidity..........90-100 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent up...5 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2000-3000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................50 percent.

.COLUMBUS DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Cloudy. Snow in the morning, then snow
likely in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......29-35...19-27 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........79-89 percent.
24 hr trend......20 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1500-2500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast around 30 mph decreasing to 20 to
25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow likely. Lows
in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely and chance of rain. Lows
in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s.

$$

MTZ115-122215-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of rain and snow in
the morning, then slight chance of rain and snow in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......38-44...32-38 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......29 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........58-68 percent...69-79 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......24 percent up...35 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2500-4000 ft agl increasing to 4500 ft agl
early in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......24-29.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........84-94 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down...8 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2500-3500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.COLUMBUS DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the
morning, then slight chance of snow in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......36-42...28-34 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........61-71 percent...70-78 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......12 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2000-3500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......East 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in
the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. East winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain likely. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper
40s. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the mid 50s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s.

$$

MTZ116-118-122215-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Snow in the morning. Chance
of rain through the day. Snow likely in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......39-49...30-39 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......17 degrees down...25 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........63-73 percent...76-86 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......5 percent down...20 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2000-3000 ft agl increasing to 4000-5500 ft
agl late in the morning, then decreasing to 3500 ft agl late in
the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the evening.
Snow through the night. Chance of rain after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......18-28.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down...12 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Max Humidity..........89-99 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2000-2500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................50 percent.

.COLUMBUS DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Snow in the morning, then
chance of snow in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......33-43...24-34 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........72-82 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent up...3 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northeast winds around 25 mph
decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1500-3000 ft agl increasing to 2500-3500 ft
agl early in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow and slight chance of
rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely. Lows around
30. Highs in the lower 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Rain and snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in
the lower 40s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s.

$$

MTZ117-122215-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Snow and chance of rain in
the morning, then chance of snow in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......32-41.
24 hr trend......30 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........66-76 percent.
24 hr trend......34 percent up...unchanged higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds around 25 mph
decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........2000-3500 ft agl increasing to 3500-4000 ft
agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Snow.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......20-25.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........89-99 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. East winds 20 to 25 mph increasing
to around 25 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........2000-3000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................50 percent.

.COLUMBUS DAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Snow in the morning, then
chance of snow in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......33-38...26-33 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........71-81 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northeast winds around 25 mph
becoming east 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............East winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1500-3000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......East around 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25
mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow and slight chance of
rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds
20 to 25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely. Lows around
30. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Rain and snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in
the mid 40s. West winds 20 to 25 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s.

$$

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465
FXUS65 KTFX 121145
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
545 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow diminishes this afternoon before another round of snow
brings wintry impacts along the Rocky Mountain Front and the
western plains tonight into Monday morning.

- Temperatures warm slightly next week, but there will be day to
day opportunities for scattered shower activity and mostly
mountain snow, especially during the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 406 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025/

- Meteorological Overview:

The trough responsible for this morning`s snow will weaken and
swing northeastward today while southwesterly flow aloft
redevelops in response to a strengthening mid- level circulation
retrograding southwestward into the Pacific Northwest. Snow along
the Rocky Mountain Front, over the southwestern mountains, and
over the plains will thin out heading into this afternoon.

This lull in activity will be brief for northern areas due to
northeasterly upslope flow setting up in the low levels and
combining with warm air advection/isentropic lift aloft. Cold air
will become established at the surface tonight into Monday while
H700 temperatures generally remain around -10C over the northwest
portions of central/north-central MT. This will result in more
winter impacts at lower elevations than the first round. Areas
along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains west of I15,
including the canyon area between Helena and Great Falls will be
most susceptible to higher end snow totals tonight into Monday
morning. Snow diminishes for most locations by Monday afternoon,
though lighter snows may persist through Monday night along the
Rocky Mountain Front.

Most ensembles favor weak difluent flow aloft over the Northern
Rockies for the first half of next week for slightly warmer, but
continued below average, temperatures and day to day lower grade
shower and mountain snow activity. The Pacific Northwest trough
then moves into Montana later in the week, though the precise
details of the trough`s evolution is unclear at this time.
Overall, there`s an expectation for increased precipitation and
mountain snow for the second half of the week while temperatures
warm slightly. - RCG

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow today through Monday...

Outside of mountain areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and in
southwest MT, snow has been slow to get going during the overnight
hours. There`s still an expectation for at least a period of
lower elevation snow over the plains west of I15 this morning, but
overall, it`s now looking like the most impactful snow will be
tonight into Monday morning for locations along the Rocky Mountain
Front, the central island ranges, and their northerly/easterly
upslope foothills/plains. The combination of cold low level
upslope flow and warm air advection aloft will bring an
opportunity for the most widespread winter impacts so far this
fall. NBM probabilities are supporting this set up with a 70 to
90% chance for snow amounts exceeding 6 inches for location along
and west of highway 89 and in the I15 canyon area between Dearborn
and Wolf Creek. There are similar probabilities for snowfall over
3 inches or more for portions of Cascade and Judith Basin
counties. The southern plains and I15 canyon zones were upgraded
to a winter storm warning for tonight and Monday morning while
advisories were posted for some central/north-central plains zones
and the Boulder area farther southwest in Jefferson County.

Impacts will still be greatest over the higher terrain of the
Rocky Mountain Front where outdoor recreation may become dangerous
with near or impassible forest roads. There will also be more
instances of icy/snowy roads tonight and Monday morning with
colder air in place, including the aforementioned lower
elevations. Isolated to scattered snow induced power outages and
or tree damage can also be expected. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
12/12Z TAF Period

Snow/rain and MVFR/IFR conditions associated with a passing
trough and cold front will continue through the morning hours with
the worst conditions over central and north-central MT. There will
be modest improvement between 12/18 and 13/00Z before warm air
advection aloft combined with low level north to northeasterly
upslope flow brings snow and a return of MVFR/IFR conditions
between 13/00 and 13/18Z. Once again, the central and north-
central MT terminals will be most impacted by degraded flight
categories. - RCG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 38 26 36 25 / 80 90 80 40
CTB 35 20 32 22 / 80 80 80 50
HLN 44 26 38 26 / 80 90 70 30
BZN 50 27 43 24 / 50 50 20 20
WYS 39 17 50 25 / 50 30 10 40
DLN 51 29 46 26 / 20 40 10 30
HVR 42 24 41 23 / 50 30 30 0
LWT 38 23 37 23 / 60 80 40 20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Monday for East Glacier Park
Region-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for Elkhorn and
Boulder Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northern
High Plains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Monday
for Gates of the Mountains-Southern High Plains.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Gates of
the Mountains-Southern High Plains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT
Monday for Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Pondera and
Eastern Teton-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Gallatin and
Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.

&&

$$
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