National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

 

Fire Weather Forecast:

 


913
FNUS55 KTFX 190745
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.DISCUSSION...

Near to below normal temperatures will occur through the remainder
of the work week as unsettled northwest flow aloft remains in
place, with daily chances for precipitation through the day on
Thursday. The best opportunity for widespread precipitation
remains to be from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning as
a compact disturbance moves southeast and over the region, with
Fire Weather Zones 114 and 117 likely to see the highest
precipitation amounts. Temperatures warm above normal through the
holiday weekend, with a return to breezy and gusty winds. - Moldan

MTZ112-192215-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......58-65...48-56 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......10 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........34-44 percent...48-58 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......5 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 7500-8000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
evening.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......37-42.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........72-82 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........5500-7000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the
morning, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......51-58...43-50 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........53-63 percent...67-77 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......14 percent up...25 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 5000-6000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 60s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in
the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
70s.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in
the lower 70s.

$$

MTZ113-192215-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-68...54-59 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......13 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........29-36 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 7500-9000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
evening.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......38-43.
24 hr trend......10 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........75-85 percent...69-76 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......16 percent up...2 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........5500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......58-63...50-55 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........41-49 percent...51-60 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......12 percent up...19 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-6000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs around 70. West
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
upper 70s. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 70s.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in
the upper 70s.

$$

MTZ114-192215-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......58-64...43-53 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......12 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........33-42 percent...54-64 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......1 percent up...5 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 7000-8000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
evening.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......36-41...29-37 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........66-76 percent...81-91 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......3 percent down...2 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........5000-6000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Cloudy. Chance of rain and snow in the
morning, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......52-58...40-50 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........54-64 percent...72-82 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......19 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the north in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 3000-4000 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 3500-5000 ft agl in
the afternoon decreasing to 3000 ft agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................40 percent.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Rain likely and snow. Lows in the mid
30s. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
around 70. Southwest winds around 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
70s.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around
70.

$$

MTZ115-192215-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......60-66...51-58 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees up...16 degrees up higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........30-39 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent up...16 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 3500 ft agl
late in the morning, then increasing to 5500-7000 ft agl late in
the morning increasing to 8000-9000 ft agl in the afternoon
decreasing to 7000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......37-42.
24 hr trend......12 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........65-75 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent down...15 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........4500-6000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the
morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......58-64...50-57 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........42-52 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent up...7 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 4000-5500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 6500-7500 ft agl late
in the morning decreasing to 4500-5000 ft agl late in the
afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 25 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 60s.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 70s.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper
70s.

$$

MTZ116-118-192215-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......55-63...45-55 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........29-39 percent...38-48 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......2 percent down...6 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 8000-9500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
evening.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......32-39.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........71-81 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........5000-6500 ft agl decreasing to BELOW 1000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......54-63...44-54 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........39-49 percent...48-58 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......10 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the northwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 2500 ft agl
early in the morning, then increasing to 4500-6000 ft agl late in
the morning increasing to 7000-8500 ft agl in the afternoon
decreasing to 6500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Showers with possible snow and thunderstorms. Lows in
the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. North winds 20 to 25 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
lower 60s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper
60s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
70s.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s.

$$

MTZ117-192215-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......56-65...46-56 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......12 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........34-44 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........BELOW 1000 ft agl increasing to 2500 ft agl
early in the morning, then increasing to 4500-6000 ft agl late in
the morning increasing to 7000-8500 ft agl late in the morning
decreasing to 6500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
evening.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......32-41.
24 hr trend......12 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........69-79 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent down...5 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........4500-6000 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the
morning, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......54-59...45-55 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........47-57 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent up...3 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 2500 ft agl
early in the morning, then increasing to 4500-6000 ft agl late in
the morning increasing to 6500-8000 ft agl early in the afternoon
decreasing to 6000-7000 ft agl decreasing to 4500 ft agl late in
the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Showers with possible snow and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds 20 to
25 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around
70. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
70s.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in
the lower 70s.

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


 

 

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387
FXUS65 KTFX 191113
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
513 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
across much of the region.

- More widespread precipitation is expected on Wednesday through Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the week with the warmest
temperatures expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 504 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026/

- Meteorological Overview

After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will warm modestly
into the 50s and 60s. Lingering moisture on the backside of the
upper-level trough combined with modest instability will allow for
pop-up showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon today.

On Wednesday another upper-level trough will arrive bringing a
chance for widespread wetting precipitation to the region. Snow will
be generally confined to locations above 7,000 feet with the rest of
the lower elevations seeing primarily rain through the event.

As the upper-level trough starts to slowly exit the area towards the
end of the week, temperatures will gradually start to warm up as
upper-level ridging begins building over the western CONUS through
the weekend.


- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For today, hi-res models were showing pretty scattered 15-30%
chances for precipitation across the region. In general, most
locations will remain dry throughout the day except for where these
pop-up showers end up developing. The highest chances for
thunderstorm activity will be across North-Central Montana with any
precipitation in Central and Southwest Montana expected to be more
stratiform in nature.

There is still good agreement for widespread wetting rains. The
heaviest amounts are currently expected along a stretch from the
Northern Rockies down through Central Montana including Great Falls
and Helena into Lewistown. Probabilities of more than 0.25" of
precipitation are currently sitting at 60-80% with a 20-40% chance
of 0.5" or more. While precipitation amounts across the remainder of
North-Central and Southwest Montana are not expected to be quite as
high there is still at least a 40% chance for a tenth of an inch or
more. -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
19/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the
1912/2012 TAF period; however, widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop between 16-19z and persist
through 03-06z Wednesday across Southwest through North Central
Montana. Main impact from any shower or storm will be erratic
winds and brief reductions in CIGS to low-VFR, along with mountain
obscuration. - Moldan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 64 40 58 38 / 40 20 80 70
CTB 62 38 55 34 / 20 10 80 40
HLN 65 38 64 38 / 20 20 60 90
BZN 62 34 63 35 / 10 20 40 90
WYS 54 26 57 30 / 10 10 40 80
DLN 61 34 62 35 / 10 20 20 70
HVR 68 40 62 36 / 30 30 50 10
LWT 60 36 58 35 / 30 20 80 80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


 

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