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932
FXUS65 KTFX 150017 CCA
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 517
PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of light snow continue along the Continental Divide
from Rogers Pass north through Glacier National Park through the
weekend.

- A few light rain and snow showers will track east across north-
central and southwest Montana Sunday morning with overall mild
conditions prevailing through Monday.

- Widespread snow is likely to accompany a transition to a
colder and more active weather pattern beginning Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Slight adjustments were made to the near-term forecast based on
updated model guidance but otherwise no major changes were made to
the going forecast. -thor

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 201 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Flat upper level ridging remains in place across the Northern
Rockies and MT through the rest of the weekend in between a split
upper level trough offshore of the west coast and deeper trough
shifting across northern Canada. A plume of Pacific moisture
streaming out of the offshore trough across the Northern Rockies
will support some periods of mainly mountain precipitation, with
measurable precip/accumulating snowfall primarily focused along the
continental divide. A few light rain/snow showers may accompany an
embedded disturbance moving east across north-central MT Sunday
morning. Otherwise, the overall mild conditions persist across the
area through Monday with breezy to locally windy conditions along
the Rocky Mtn Front and portions of north-central MT diminishing
this evening. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds will persist across
southwest MT, mainly over ridgetops and valleys with N-S alignment,
where winds will increase further on Monday as southerly flow
increases ahead of the incoming upper level trough.

A significant transition in our overall weather pattern occurs on
Tuesday as the offshore trough moves inland and deepens in response
to upper level energy diving south out of the Gulf of AK. Models are
in reasonable agreement with a wave of energy lifting out of the
trough and across the area Tuesday, supporting a period of
widespread precipitation/snow. Cooling aloft arrives initially
beneath the upper level trough before a lower level cold airmass
surges south from AB into the area later Tuesday through Tuesday
night. Colder (near to below seasonal) temperatures are likely to
follow through the remainder of the week with additional energy
moving through the trough maintaining chances for at least some
localized snowfall. Hoenisch

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Periods of snow across the continental divide this weekend will
create some winter driving conditions at times on portions of
US-2 over Marias Pass and MT-200 from Lincoln to Rogers pass.
While total weekend snow accumulation over these passes of 2 -4
inches is expected, snow intensity looks to be periodic and light
with temperatures near freezing. Still, travelers should
anticipate some changing visibility and road conditions over these
areas.

Confidence is increasing in widespread/measurable snow across
much of the area Tuesday, though there is still considerable
uncertainty in the timing/duration and amounts of precipitation at
this point. Latest blended model guidance gives areas along and
west of I-15 across north central MT (including Great falls and
Cut Bank) a 70% or higher risk of snowfall exceeding 2 inches
with similar probabilities over the southwest MT mountains but
lower probabilities across eastern portions of north-central MT
and the SW MT valleys.

Temperature forecasts are trending colder for the Wednesday through
Friday period as an increasing number of model ensemble members
support of colder airmass surging south across the area by
Wednesday. Additional cooling is possible if trends continue and
considering potential for snow-cover following the Tuesday system. A
reasonable low-end (25th percentile) scenario would have daytime
temperatures as cold as the single digits across north-central MT
Wednesday and Thursday. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
15/00Z TAF Period

Gusty winds and associated mountain wave turbulence along the Rocky
Mountain Front and over the plains will decrease shortly after
sunset. Then the attention turns to a shortwave and attendant cold
frontal passage that will bring scattered light rain and snow
showers, low VFR/MVFR cloud cover, and mountain obscuration late
tonight into Sunday. The precipitation will generally be most
widespread over central/north-central MT between 15/12 and 15/18Z,
but weak instability looks to maintain at least isolated shower
activity Sunday afternoon. - RCG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 34 50 32 57 / 30 30 10 10
CTB 26 45 23 50 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 30 51 28 53 / 20 40 20 10
BZN 29 53 28 53 / 10 10 20 10
WYS 18 39 18 40 / 10 20 10 30
DLN 31 52 26 51 / 0 10 0 0
HVR 28 47 26 53 / 20 20 20 10
LWT 30 47 28 52 / 10 30 20 10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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