A slow moving front will produce a threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather from New Mexico into the western High Plains through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is also expected this weekend in South Florida. The Bering Sea storm continues to bring heavy precipitation, strong winds, and minor to major coastal flooding through the weekend across western Alaska. Read More >
Fire Weather Forecast:
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500 FNUS55 KTFX 250958 FWFTFX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana National Weather Service Great Falls MT 358 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .DISCUSSION... Expect passing clouds along with some morning fog today and Monday. The next weather system arrives Mon night into Tue, with scattered rain/snow showers. Unsettled weather conditions are also expected Thu thru Sat. Overall afternoon temperatures will generally be a bit below normal for the next week or so. Brusda MTZ112-252300- Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty- 358 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......37-45...31-36 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......2 degrees up...8 degrees down higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........47-57 percent...60-70 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......18 percent down...19 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........1500-2500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......East 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......19-24. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Max Humidity..........87-97 percent...75-85 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......14 percent up...2 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............East winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......East 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......41-49...37-42 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 degree down...6 degrees up higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........53-63 percent...63-73 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......11 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 1500-2500 ft agl in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. Southwest winds around 30 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds around 30 mph. .THURSDAY...Colder. Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the mid 30s. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 20. Highs in the upper 30s. $$ MTZ113-252300- Hill and Blaine Counties- 358 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......41-47...35-40 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......2 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........44-54 percent...58-66 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......11 percent up...6 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 2000-3000 ft agl in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......East 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......23-28. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Max Humidity..........82-92 percent. 24 hr trend......3 percent up...13 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............East winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......East around 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......45-51...39-44 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......4 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........56-66 percent...71-81 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......6 percent up...15 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 2500-3000 ft agl in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 25 to 30 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain likely and chance of snow. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and slight chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 20 to 25 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow and rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. $$ MTZ114-252300- Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District- Rocky Mountain Front- 358 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......36-41...28-36 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......3 degrees down. * Min Humidity..........58-68 percent...73-83 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......7 percent down...22 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............East winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........1500-2500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Northeast 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......20-26. 24 hr trend......1 degree down. * Max Humidity..........86-96 percent. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......East 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......39-46. 24 hr trend......4 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........56-66 percent...65-75 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......4 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds around 5 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds around 5 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 10 to 15 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy with chance of snow and rain. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds around 30 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 30 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the mid 30s. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. $$ MTZ115-252300- Chouteau and Fergus Counties- 358 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......41-47...35-41 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 degree up...5 degrees down higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........48-58 percent. 24 hr trend......17 percent down...15 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 2000-2500 ft agl in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......East 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......21-29. 24 hr trend......4 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........84-94 percent. 24 hr trend......15 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 20 to 25 mph. Ridges.............East winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......East around 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......46-52...40-47 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........54-64 percent. 24 hr trend......5 percent up...3 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 2000-3000 ft agl in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......Southeast around 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s. South winds 20 to 25 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs around 50. West winds around 30 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs around 40. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. $$ MTZ116-118-252300- Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest- Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest- 358 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......37-46...31-41 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........66-76 percent. 24 hr trend......2 percent down...12 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Northeast 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......20-26. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Max Humidity..........85-95 percent. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........BELOW 1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......East 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......45-52...39-46 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......4 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........60-70 percent. 24 hr trend......5 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......South 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Windy. Snow and rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 30 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs around 40. $$ MTZ117-252300- Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas- 358 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......35-42. 24 hr trend......1 degree up. * Min Humidity..........61-71 percent. 24 hr trend......6 percent down...19 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 1500-2500 ft agl late in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......East 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......19-25. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Max Humidity..........85-95 percent...75-85 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......14 percent up...9 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......40-49. 24 hr trend......2 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........59-69 percent. 24 hr trend......2 percent up...3 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southeast around 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Very windy. Mostly cloudy with snow and rain likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 35 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 30 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs around 40. $$ weather.gov/greatfalls |
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468
FXUS65 KTFX 260125
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
725 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to areas of dense fog will bring localized sharp
visibility reductions across short distances and isolated
slippery spots from frost deposition again tonight in Monday
morning.
- Pacific weather systems will bring periods of light snow
this week, most widespread over the higher terrain along the
Continental Divide and southwest Montana Monday night into
Tuesday.
- Temperatures will generally remain below average heading into
the latter part of October.
&&
.UPDATE...
The only update for the evening was to increase mention of cloud
cover across the valleys of SW MT. Low clouds have persistent
there, but are still forecast to lower further and become fog
overnight tonight. Consideration was given toward expanding the
Dense Fog Advisory further north, between the Helena and Great
Falls area, but high level clouds moving in were a nudge to hold
off for now. Trends will be monitored through the night for any
additional Dense Fog Advisories. -AM
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 525 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026/
- Meteorological Overview:
Low level easterly flow looks to bring another round low stratus
and patchy/areas of dense fog again tonight. Areas along the
Continental Divide, the southwest valleys, and the plains
east/northeast of the Rocky Mountain Front/Big Belts will see the
greatest coverage and overall visibility impacts. The general flow
aloft will shift southwesterly in advance of a closed low moving
onto the Pacific NW coast. This will bring variable cloudiness and
a slight warm up on Monday before the low heads into the Northern
Rockies and sends a wave of mostly mountain light snow moving in
southwest to northeast fashion Monday night into Tuesday.
Accumulations in the 1 to 4 inch range will generally favor the
higher terrain along the Continental Divide and the southwest
mountains.
Ensembles then highlight another closed low moving southeast out
of the gulf of AK before slowing down and remaining near or just
off the Pacific NW coast for much of the week. This will bring a
southwesterly flow aloft again and send a series of weak
shortwaves and periods of spotty light rain and snow into the
Northern Rockies for much of the remaining week. This system is
progged to move towards the Great Basin/SW conus by early next
week. Similar to many systems so far this fall, splitting and
shearing will make for a challenging forecast. A further north
track while maintaining strength would favor more snow and colder
temperatures heading into early next week. Roughly half of the
ensembles favor this. - RCG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
...Dense fog increasing tonight into Monday morning...
Low stratus has been slow to thin out early this afternoon, with
another night of light wind and continued lingering surface
moisture in the forecast. The stratus looks to increase in
coverage and lower again tonight for another round of fog in the
southwest valleys. A dense fog advisory was added through Monday
at noon to address the impacts from variable visibility down to a
quarter mile or less and frost deposition creating slippery spots
on area roads.
Dense fog looks to also be a concern for valleys and plains
locations adjacent to the Big Belt Mountains, with HREF
probabilities supporting half mile visibility approaching 50% in
some cases. Held off issuing fog products here with higher clouds
looking to be thicker and arriving sooner than the southwest. This
area will continue to be monitored for fog products heading into
the evening hours.
...Light mountain snow Monday night into Tuesday...
A cold core aloft will bring a period of accumulating snow Monday
night into early Tuesday. H700 temperatures quickly drop off to
around -5C, which will be supportive of the 1 to 4 inches snow
being depicted by model guidance. Areas along the Continental
Divide and the southwestern mountains along and south of I90 look
to see the heaviest snowfall amounts with lighter snows over the
central ranges. Impacts will mostly be slippery passes and reduced
visibility. - RCG
&&
.AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF Period
VFR conditions will prevail at the KHLN, KGTF, KHVR, and KLWT
terminals during this TAF Period. At the KBZN and KWYS terminal
there will be fog from 26/03Z through 26/16Z. This fog will reduce
visibility to at least one mile with intermittent visibility
reductions down to one half mile expected at the KBZN terminal.
During the first 16 hours of this TAF Period at the KBZN terminal
there will be at least IFR-level ceilings with a period of LIFR-
level ceilings. During the first 6 hours of this TAF Period there
will be periods of mountain obscuration across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. Between 26/06Z and 26/18Z there
will be mountain obscuration across Southwestern Montana. -IG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 18 43 30 50 / 0 0 40 40
CTB 19 43 25 50 / 0 0 30 40
HLN 22 48 32 50 / 0 0 80 30
BZN 19 52 28 47 / 0 0 90 60
WYS 17 49 18 38 / 0 10 100 70
DLN 22 52 30 46 / 0 0 90 20
HVR 23 52 28 49 / 0 0 40 70
LWT 22 50 29 45 / 0 0 60 70
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT Monday for Beaverhead and
Western Madison below 6000ft-Canyon Ferry Area-Elkhorn and
Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gallatin and Madison County
Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Madison River Valley-Missouri
Headwaters-Northwest Beaverhead County.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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