Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains Thursday, with large hail the main threat. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible. A storm system moving north along the New England coast will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the region Thursday and Friday. Read More >
Fire Weather Forecast:
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629 FNUS55 KTFX 210842 FWFTFX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana National Weather Service Great Falls MT Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT 242 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025 .DISCUSSION... There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms today through Saturday with the greatest chances and most widespread rain Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Temperatures will gradually warm up through Saturday. There will be moderate humidity recovery tonight with good humidity recovery Thursday night through Saturday night. -IG MTZ112-212245- Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty- 242 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......56-64...48-56 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Min Humidity..........29-36 percent...36-46 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 percent down...7 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Min Temperature.......32-38. 24 hr trend......1 degree down. * Max Humidity..........71-81 percent. 24 hr trend......8 percent up...5 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......60-67...52-60 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........31-37 percent. 24 hr trend......4 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 60. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. $$ MTZ113-212245- Hill and Blaine Counties- 242 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......59-64...53-58 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 degree up. * Min Humidity..........35-45 percent. 24 hr trend......4 percent up...10 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................10 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening. * Min Temperature.......35-40. 24 hr trend......1 degree up. * Max Humidity..........80-90 percent...66-71 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......29 percent up...unchanged higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......64-69...58-63 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......4 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........30-38 percent. 24 hr trend......6 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .FRIDAY...Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 40. Highs in the mid 60s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 70. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. $$ MTZ114-212245- Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District- Rocky Mountain Front- 242 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......55-61...42-52 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 degree up. * Min Humidity..........27-34 percent...40-50 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 percent up...15 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 25 mph. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 15 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Min Temperature.......30-38. 24 hr trend......1 degree up. * Max Humidity..........61-71 percent. 24 hr trend......3 percent down...9 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 5 to 15 mph. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......58-64...45-55 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......2 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........36-41 percent...42-52 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......8 percent up...unchanged higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. * CWR...................10 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. $$ MTZ115-212245- Chouteau and Fergus Counties- 242 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......59-64...50-56 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 degree up. * Min Humidity..........30-37 percent. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Min Temperature.......35-40. 24 hr trend......2 degrees down...3 degrees up higher elevations. * Max Humidity..........66-76 percent...59-67 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......8 percent up...4 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......63-69...55-61 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......4 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........32-41 percent. 24 hr trend......6 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .FRIDAY...Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 70. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s. $$ MTZ116-212245- Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest- 242 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......53-58...43-53 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 degree down. * Min Humidity..........30-36 percent...36-46 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear then becoming mostly cloudy. * Min Temperature.......32-37. 24 hr trend......6 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........59-69 percent. 24 hr trend......22 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......55-61...47-55 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......4 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........42-52 percent. 24 hr trend......7 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...East winds 5 to 10 mph. Ridges.............East winds 5 to 10 mph. * CWR...................30 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. $$ MTZ117-212245- Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas- 242 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......53-62...45-54 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Min Humidity..........30-40 percent. 24 hr trend......1 percent up...6 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Min Temperature.......32-38. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........60-70 percent. 24 hr trend......3 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph becoming south around 5 mph after midnight. Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the south after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Showers likely in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......58-65...51-59 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......7 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........38-47 percent. 24 hr trend......11 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................10 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 60. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. $$ MTZ118-212245- Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest- 242 AM MDT Wed May 21 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......54-61...44-53 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......2 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........25-35 percent. 24 hr trend......9 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Min Temperature.......35-40. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........57-67 percent. 24 hr trend......9 percent down...18 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.......58-66...50-58 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......4 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........37-46 percent. 24 hr trend......9 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. * CWR...................20 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 70. South winds 15 to 20 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. $$ weather.gov/greatfalls |
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511
FXUS65 KTFX 220249
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT
849 PM MDT Wed May 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage Thursday
afternoon, greatest across Southwest and Central Montana.
- Showers become more numerous heading into Thursday night and
Friday across Central and North-central Montana.
- Looking warmer and mostly dry for the latter half of the
weekend into Memorial Day, with just an outside chance for an
afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
&&
.UPDATE...
With a cluster of showers and thunderstorms along the Canadian
Border this evening, I have increased POPs across a portion of
North Central Montana. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
Ludwig
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT/
- Meteorological Overview:
An initially zonal to slightly northwesterly flow aloft will
transition more southwesterly heading into Thursday as the next
shortwave disturbance approaches from the Pacific. Opportunities for
showers and an isolated thunderstorm through the remainder of the
day are relatively low, at least compared to previous days and the
next few days. Heading into Thursday the aforementioned wave will
promote more widespread shower and thunderstorm development across
Southwest Montana initially, spreading northward with time through
the remainder of the day. Gusty winds appear to be the greatest
threat, though forecast soundings aren`t overly concerning for
widespread strong thunderstorm wind gusts.
Showers and a few thunderstorms linger into Thursday night and
Friday morning, though appear to be more confined to areas across
the plains.
Some ridging builds in toward Saturday and Sunday, which will help
send temperatures a touch above average. Although the ridging will
be in place, there will still be an outside chance for a shower in
eastern areas. Further warming occurs for Memorial Day but by the
late afternoon and early evening, low-end opportunities for showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm or two creeps back into the forecast as a
southwesterly flow aloft attempts to build in.
Confidence in the evolution of the pattern after Memorial Day is
lower in nature, but temperatures do look to remain a touch above
average toward the middle of next week, with afternoon and early
evening showers and thunderstorms. -AM
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Overall, there is a greater than 50% chance for a tenth of an inch
of rain across the entire region through Saturday morning, with
isolated pockets closer to 80%.
Heading into Memorial Day and Tuesday, the chance for an 80F high
is greatest in and around Great Falls (Around 60% chance), with
Helena not far behind (50%).
Thereafter another period of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
develops. Between the Tuesday and Thursday time frame, the chance
for a tenth of an inch of rain across the region is roughly 40%
or greater. -AM
&&
.AVIATION...
22/00Z TAF Period
Lingering showers and TSRA will quickly diminish this evening as
daytime heating comes to an end for the day. While VFR conditions
are expected to continue through the day on Thursday, brief rain
showers may bring temporary MVFR to IFR conditions as they pass
through. Ludwig
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 37 65 43 63 / 20 40 70 50
CTB 32 64 41 60 / 20 30 60 60
HLN 39 65 43 68 / 0 60 50 40
BZN 35 68 38 65 / 0 50 60 30
WYS 28 64 29 62 / 0 40 40 20
DLN 37 64 35 65 / 0 60 30 20
HVR 36 71 44 58 / 50 20 90 80
LWT 34 65 41 58 / 20 30 90 60
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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