Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

027
FNUS55 KTFX 120727
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
127 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Precipitation coverage increases to scattered to widespread
throughout the morning across North-Central MT. There will be isolated
showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon. A few stronger
thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty erratic winds,
lightning, and small hail. An active pattern continues into next
week, with a brief cool down during the beginning of the week.

MTZ112-122245-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
127 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers
through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......73-78...65-71 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........40-48 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the southeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............South winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 6000-7500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......45-51.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........84-94 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent up...13 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
west after midnight.
Ridges.............South winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........5000 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......73-78...66-71 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........35-44 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down...9 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 7500-8000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 50. Highs
around 70. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
70s.

$$

MTZ113-122245-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
127 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.
Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......75-80...67-72 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........43-53 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............East winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 4000-5000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......East 15 to 20 mph shifting to the south in
the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers
through the night.
* Chance Lightning.......30 percent.
* Min Temperature.......48-54.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down...unchanged higher elevations.
* Max Humidity..........86-96 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Ridges.............East winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........3000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......East 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......71-76...64-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........49-59 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent up...7 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds around 5 mph.
Ridges.............East winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-5500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
South winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 70. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
70s.

$$

MTZ114-122245-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
127 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers through the
day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Max Temperature.......71-78...58-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up...4 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........38-48 percent...53-63 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......9 percent up...19 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 3000-4500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 5500-7000 ft agl in
the afternoon decreasing to 5000 ft agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......43-49.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........82-92 percent.
24 hr trend......18 percent up...1 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1500-3000 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft agl
early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......71-78...58-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........37-43 percent...45-55 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......2 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northeast in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 7000-8000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast
in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs around 70.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
60s.

$$

MTZ115-122245-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
127 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......40 percent.
* Max Temperature.......74-79...65-72 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........40-47 percent...47-57 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......4 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 4000-5500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in
the evening. Slight chance of showers through the night.
* Chance Lightning.......30 percent.
* Min Temperature.......48-54.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........84-94 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent up...7 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
Ridges.............Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1500-3000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......East 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers through the
day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......68-78...59-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........46-56 percent...60-70 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......9 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............East winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 4000-5500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east
in the afternoon.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
70s.

$$

MTZ116-118-122245-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
127 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers
through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......70-77...60-70 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........36-46 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southwest winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 8500-10000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......43-50.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max Humidity..........78-88 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent up...2 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds around 5 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the southwest after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........6500 ft agl decreasing to 1000-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......67-75...58-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down...unchanged higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........41-51 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the northeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
north in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 3500-4500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 5500-7000 ft agl in
the afternoon decreasing to 5000 ft agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 70.

$$

MTZ117-122245-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
127 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......40 percent.
* Max Temperature.......71-79...62-71 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........36-46 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 3500-5000 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 7000-8500 ft agl in
the afternoon decreasing to 6000 ft agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers through
the night.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......43-51.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........78-88 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent down...2 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southwest after midnight.
Ridges.............Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........4500 ft agl decreasing to 1000-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......67-77...57-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........40-50 percent...50-60 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......1 percent up...7 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the northeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Northeast winds around 5 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5500-7000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northeast in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid
40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
70s.

$$

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044
FXUS65 KTFX 121445
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
845 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be rain showers this morning across North-Central
Montana and isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
across the region.

- An active period continue through the weekend and into next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Slight adjustments were made based on trending observations and
updated model guidance but otherwise no major changes were made to
the going forecast. -thor

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 452 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025/

- Meteorological Overview:

With this trough axis coming closer to being overhead, lots of
vorticity maximums aloft will increase coverage in precipitation
to scattered this morning across North-Central MT. High pressure
to the south in Southwest MT will keep things dry throughout the
morning. This afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms
develop across the region. This morning, there should be breaks
in the cloud cover to where instability can develop. A few
stronger storms can be capable of producing erratic gusty winds,
hail, and locally heavy rainfall. The best chances for this
extends from Central MT to along the Hi-Line where the boundary
lifts northward throughout the afternoon. A low pressure system
developing will keep precipitation chances through the weekend.

Beginning of next week, another trough comes through. Models try
to form a closed low from this. This will keep the active pattern
and give a brief cool down for the first part of the week.
However, there is uncertainty in the amplitude and timing of the
trough, so details remain a little murky at this. Models still;l
have diverging solutions towards the end of the work week next
week. Some bring another trough from the Pacific, keeping this
active pattern. While some keeps a brief dry period before
precipitation returns.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For thunderstorms today, areas that have less cloud cover from
precipitation this morning will build in better instability.
Storms that do form will be more like pulse thunderstorms due to
low wind shear. Meaning, storms that form will go up and will be
shorter lived. Good lapse rates and depending on how much
instability builds in, a few stronger storms will develop. These
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rain.

There remains a little bit of uncertainty with the position and
precipitation amounts with this low morning across Central MT
Saturday and Sunday. With that cut off low the beginning of next
week, depending on where it sets up, there is a low chance enough
cold air moves into Southwest MT where the highest peaks can see a
dusting of snow. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
12/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will predominately prevail throughout the 1212/1312
TAF period; however, brief periods of MVFR/low-VFR conditions are
possible beneath shower and thunderstorm activity in addition to
gusty and erratic winds. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
largely be isolated to widely scattered over the next 18-24 hours,
with the greatest areal coverage occurring between 21-24z this
afternoon. While widespread mountain obscuration is not expected
there will be periods of obscuration beneath/near precipitation.
- Moldan

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A few heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible today. While
unlikely, should one of the heaviest rain showers hit a burn scar
some flash flooding may be possible. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 78 48 78 51 / 40 20 20 10
CTB 76 45 77 48 / 40 20 10 10
HLN 76 49 76 51 / 40 20 30 10
BZN 75 44 73 45 / 20 20 40 10
WYS 69 35 65 33 / 30 10 50 10
DLN 73 41 71 42 / 20 10 20 10
HVR 78 49 77 52 / 40 30 30 20
LWT 74 48 69 48 / 60 40 60 30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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