Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

842
FNUS55 KTFX 111026
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...Hot and Dry This Weekend With Near Record Afternoon Temperatures
and Breezy Afternoon Winds...

.DISCUSSION...

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure extending into the
northern U.S. Plains will bring hot afternoon temperatures to the
region this weekend along with low afternoon humidity. Overnight
humidity recovery is also likely to worsen at mid-slope and higher
elevations. Breezy southwest winds are expected to develop this
afternoon and again Sunday. Temperatures moderate slightly next
week as moisture begins to circulate into the region, bringing
increased cloud-cover along with the potential for thunderstorms.
Hoenisch

MTZ112-112215-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......88-98...76-86 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........17-24 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to
southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............South winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 9500-11000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to southwest
around 35 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......57-62.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Max Humidity..........44-54 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph becoming south 10
to 15 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds around 25 mph becoming
south 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........7500 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 30 mph becoming south 20 to 25
mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......86-96...74-84 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........19-26 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the west in the afternoon.
Ridges.............South winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 7000-7500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to west
around 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs around 90.
Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 80s.
North winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs in the lower 80s. East
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.

$$

MTZ113-112215-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......96-102...89-94 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........15-23 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent up...3 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 11000-12000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 20 to 25 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......60-67.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........46-56 percent...39-44 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......1 percent up...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the north after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the northeast after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........10000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 25 mph becoming northeast
15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......96-105...90-96 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........16-25 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 3000-4500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 5500 ft agl early in
the afternoon increasing to 11000-12500 ft agl late in the
afternoon decreasing to 9000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast around 25 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid
90s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds
20 to 25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 80s.
East winds 20 to 25 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs in the mid 80s.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.

$$

MTZ114-112215-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......89-99...74-84 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up...3 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........15-21 percent...21-31 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......1 percent down...5 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 8500-10000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest around 25 mph increasing to
around 35 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......54-62.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........42-52 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent up...1 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight.
Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........7000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 30 mph becoming south 15 to 20
mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......89-98...74-84 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........16-22 percent...22-32 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......4 percent up...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 6500-8000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs in the upper 80s.
Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 80s.
North winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80. North
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.

$$

MTZ115-112215-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......98-103...91-97 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......10 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........13-18 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent down...9 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 12500-13500
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to southwest
around 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......61-67.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........42-52 percent...34-42 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......5 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the east after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........11000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 25 mph becoming northeast
15 to 20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......98-107.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Min Humidity..........10-20 percent...6-11 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......3 percent up...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to
southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 3000 ft agl
late in the morning, then increasing to 5000 ft agl early in the
afternoon increasing to 7500 ft agl early in the afternoon
increasing to 12000 ft agl increasing to 14000-15000 ft agl late
in the afternoon decreasing to 13000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast around 25 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Highs in the mid 90s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s.
Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.

$$

MTZ116-118-112215-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......90-100...79-89 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........12-21 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to
southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 12000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......58-64.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........34-44 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........11500 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 25 mph becoming southeast 15 to
20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......92-102...81-91 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........12-22 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing
to southwest around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to west
20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 2500-4000 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 7000 ft agl early in
the afternoon increasing to 11000 ft agl early in the afternoon
increasing to 14500 ft agl increasing to 15500-16500 ft agl late
in the afternoon decreasing to 14000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs around 90.
West winds 20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds 15 to
20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80. North
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.

$$

MTZ117-112215-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
426 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......91-101...83-93 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees up...6 degrees up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........14-19 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent down...6 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 10000-11000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to southwest
around 30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......57-64.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........40-50 percent...28-38 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......7 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the southeast after midnight.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........9500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph shifting to the
southeast after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SUNDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......93-102...87-97 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........10-17 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............South winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 3000-4500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 7000 ft agl early in
the afternoon increasing to 11000 ft agl early in the afternoon
increasing to 14500-15000 ft agl decreasing to 13000 ft agl late
in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the
lower 90s. South winds 20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds 20 to
25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80. North
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.

$$

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456
FXUS65 KTFX 111055
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
455 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot this weekend with afternoon temperatures near daily records.

- Heat, dryness and afternoon breezy to locally windy conditions
will bring elevated fire weather concerns, especially across
southwest Montana.

- Not as hot next week with increasing chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 349 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging continues to amplify and extend northeast into
the Northern US Plains this weekend, bringing several days of
excessive heat to the region with afternoon temperatures near daily
records today and tomorrow. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms
moving across north-central MT early this morning in association
with a subtle shortwave disturbance and some mid-level moisture will
lift out of the area by mid-morning. With the ridge axis centered
east of the area a moderate southwesterly flow aloft remains in
place with afternoon mixing tapping into this for breezy winds this
afternoon and again Sunday. By late Sunday, shortwave energy lifting
through southern BC will compress the the NW periphery of the upper
ridge and allow low-level thermal trough to shift east across the
area Sunday evening. This will lead to enhanced southwest winds
Sunday afternoon across much of the area. Mid-level moisture also
begins to stream northeast across the Northern Rockies late
Sunday and this could lead to some increased cumulus development
and perhaps an isolated high-based shower or thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon/evening, primarily across north-central MT. The hottest
daytime maximum temperatures are likely on Sunday as 500MB
heights/thickness and 700MB temps peak with only slight moderation
but increased cloud-cover on Monday. Looking ahead, models
continue to indicate a fairly robust plume of monsoon-related
moisture to begin circulating around the ridge into the Northern
Rockies and MT beginning Tuesday and potentially continue across
the area through the rest of next week supporting an increased
risk for daily shower and thunderstorm activity with afternoon
temperatures not as hot due to the increased moisture and cloud-
cover. Precipitable Water (PWATs) well in excess of 1.00" are
supported by most models/ensembles Tuesday through Thursday of
next week, which will bring the risk for heavy rain producing
thunderstorms. Hoenisch

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Below are the probabilities for maximum temperatures reaching or
exceeding 100F this weekend:

Sat 7/11 Sun 7/12
Great Falls 50% 50%
Bozeman 5% 75%
Helena 50% 50%
Havre 75% 70%
Cut Bank 0% 0%
Lewistown 10% 80%
Dillon 0% 20%

&&

.AVIATION...
11/12Z TAF Period

Except for an isolated shower in the KHVR vicinity early this
morning, mainly clear skies and VFR conditions prevail at all
terminals through the TAF period. Surface winds become breezy with
a few 20-25kt gusts this afternoon before winds decouple and
become generally light again late this evening/overnight. Hoenisch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns this weekend are greatest across southwest MT
where deeper mixing is expected today and especially on Sunday as
the thermal trough shifts across the area. Probabilities for wind
gusts in excess of 35 mph are mainly below 30% today but increase to
50% or better for much of southwest MT Sunday afternoon, including
areas as far north as the valleys of Broadwater and Meagher counties.
The Hot-Dry-Windy Index is projected to exceed the 90th percentile
across these areas on Sunday with near record afternoon temperatures
and very low humidity leading to elevated fire weather risk.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 100 61 100 62 / 0 0 10 10
CTB 91 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 100 63 100 65 / 0 0 10 0
BZN 98 61 102 60 / 0 0 10 10
WYS 91 49 97 51 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 95 56 98 57 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 102 63 101 63 / 0 0 10 20
LWT 98 59 103 59 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Monday for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County
below 5000ft-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and
Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley-Gates of the
Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill County-Judith Basin County and
Judith Gap-Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Northern
Blaine County-Southern High Plains-Western and Central Chouteau
County.

&&

$$
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