Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

593
FNUS55 KTFX 120740
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
140 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms will persist
through at least early next week. Although the afternoon and evening
timeframe will have the greatest coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, at least isolated showers and thunderstorms look to
persist into the overnight hours most nights through early next
week. Gusty and erratic winds, hail, and lightning are the concern
with the strongest thunderstorms that form. -AM

MTZ112-122215-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
140 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning.
Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......63-68...56-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......12 degrees down...4 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........63-73 percent.
24 hr trend......37 percent up...22 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to
10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................60 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers through
the night.
* Min Temperature.......46-51.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........87-97 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent up...5 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the
morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-75...63-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up...unchanged higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........41-51 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent down...22 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds
15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

$$

MTZ113-122215-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
140 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Haze in the morning. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through
the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......60-65.
24 hr trend......18 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........72-82 percent.
24 hr trend......50 percent up...45 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................70 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
* Min Temperature.......47-52.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........91-100 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
morning, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......68-76...64-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........52-61 percent.
24 hr trend......23 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. North
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 70s.

$$

MTZ114-122215-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
140 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Showers likely through the
day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......68-73...57-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......10 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........50-60 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................50 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers through
the night.
* Min Temperature.......45-51.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........82-92 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent up...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-76...58-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........40-50 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds 15 to
20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70.

$$

MTZ115-122215-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
140 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of
thunderstorms and slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......62-70...53-60 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........65-75 percent...74-84 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......42 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the north in the afternoon.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers through
the night.
* Min Temperature.......48-53.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........89-99 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent up...11 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
morning, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......71-76...62-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........52-62 percent...62-72 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......17 percent down...8 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. East
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.

$$

MTZ116-122215-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
140 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers through the
day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-76...61-70 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent...46-56 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......3 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 5 to 10 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then slight
chance of showers after midnight.
* Min Temperature.......45-50.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........80-90 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 5 to 10 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-76...61-70 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........44-54 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 5 to 10 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.

$$

MTZ117-122215-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
140 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers through the
day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......65-73...57-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........54-64 percent.
24 hr trend......17 percent up...23 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers through
the night.
* Min Temperature.......45-51.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........84-94 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged...11 percent down higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southeast after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny then becoming cloudy. Chance
of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
then showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-77...62-70 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........50-60 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down...9 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................40 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds
10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

$$

MTZ118-122215-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
140 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......70-78...60-70 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Min Humidity..........43-53 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after
midnight.
* Min Temperature.......48-53.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........81-91 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then showers and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......71-78...63-71 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........41-51 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.

$$

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699
FXUS65 KTFX 120828
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
228 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled pattern looks to continue into at least early next week,
with daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across
most areas.

- The day most favored for strong to severe thunderstorms looks
to be Friday, with the threat continuing in portions of the
region into Saturday.

- Confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms decreases for late
weekend into early next week, though the risk is certainly non-
zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

- Meteorological Overview:

Persistent troughing off the Pacific NW coast and associated
southwesterly flow aloft will be the main driver of weather across
the region through at least Monday. Waves rippling through the
Southwesterly flow aloft will combine with ample surface moisture
for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Showers
and thunderstorms will be around through the overnight and into the
morning hours at times, but these timeframes are overall less likely
for precipitation.

Upper level support today appears to be the least favorable compared
to the next several days, as subtle shortwave riding passes through.
That said, ample surface moisture, surface heating, and increased
shear (Up to around 30kts or so effective shear) will result in
better organized showers and thunderstorms today. The lack of higher
shear keeps confidence low for organized severe thunderstorms today,
though they cannot be ruled out.

In the meantime, a mix of showers and more stratiform rain will
continue across eastern and northern portions of the plains into
daytime hours today. This should help decrease overall smoke amounts
near the surface, though will not eliminate it.

Heading into Friday a shortwave pivoting through the Pacific NW
troughing ejects toward the Northern Rockies in the late morning
through afternoon hours. Surface moisture from previous
precipitation across the plains and adjacent areas as well as
advection in from the east near the surface should be sufficient for
ample instability, even with cooler surface temperatures in place.
Increased southwesterly flow aloft overtop easterly surface winds
will help increase shear above 40 kts, helping to support a greater
threat for organized severe weather. Strong wind gusts in excess of
58 mph and large hail are the primary concerns with the stronger
thunderstorms Friday.

The setup is largely the same for Saturday, though the best
instability does look to be confined to eastern areas. Gusty winds
and hail will continue to be the primary concern with the strongest
thunderstorms that form.

Heading into Sunday and into Monday the southwesterly flow aloft
remains. Confidence in timing any shortwaves that would aid in
shower and thunderstorm development decreases quite a bit. That
said, lingering surface moisture and respectable shear profiles
suggest at least a low-end threat for stronger thunderstorms will
remain heading into early next week.

Cluster guidance for the middle of next week favors the
southwesterly flow aloft persisting. Where confidence lowers
significantly is whether this is a more cyclonic or anti-cyclonic
southwesterly flow. Regardless, at least low-end chances for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms look to persist
heading into the middle of next week. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

So far the bulk of the more persistent/stratiform precipitation has
been in the Lewistown area and away from the Hi-Line. Guidance still
does show a window later this morning for the rain to make it up
that way still, so I have not lowered PoPs just yet.

Otherwise the greatest uncertainty in the forecast is related to
just how much instability develops each day late weekend into early
next week. There remains significant discrepancies between magnitude
of instability that develops as well as where exactly it develops.
As mesoscale details become better resolved over the next couple
days, confidence in how Saturday and onward will play out will
subsequently increase. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
12/06Z TAF Period

Initial concerns this TAF period will be for continued smoke/haze in
the Havre and Cut Bank areas, which looks to slowly improve heading
into Thursday. Otherwise thunderstorm activity through the rest of
the overnight looks to slowly wane, with a more stratiform type
precipitation taking over. Areas of low clouds look to increase
through the overnight and into early Thursday over the plains,
becoming more scattered into the afternoon hours. Additional
showers and thunderstorms develop Thursday afternoon, with gusty
winds, hail, and lightning being the main concern. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 72 50 76 52 / 80 30 80 50
CTB 68 48 73 46 / 90 30 50 30
HLN 78 54 78 52 / 80 50 80 40
BZN 78 49 79 49 / 40 50 60 30
WYS 73 39 74 38 / 30 30 20 10
DLN 75 47 77 46 / 40 30 50 10
HVR 66 49 76 52 / 90 30 60 60
LWT 64 47 72 50 / 70 30 80 70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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