Fire Weather Forecast:
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013 FNUS55 KTFX 280901 FWFTFX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana National Weather Service Great Falls MT 301 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .DISCUSSION... A dry westerly flow aloft across the Northern Rockies and Montana will bring some additional warming today with overall dry conditions continuing through the weekend. Breezy west to southwest winds are expected this afternoon and again Sunday across central and southwest Montana. Daytime humidity will fall to the teens today with slightly higher RH on Sunday. More widespread cooling and a chance for showers along with windy conditions occur with the passage of a Pacific cold front across the region on Monday. Hoenisch MTZ112-282300- Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty- 301 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......50-59...43-49 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Min Humidity..........22-31 percent...30-40 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......15 percent up...20 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 6500-7000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......20-27. 24 hr trend......5 degrees down. * Max Humidity..........75-85 percent...66-76 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......34 percent up...25 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........6000 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Northwest 25 to 30 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......47-55...38-47 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......3 degrees down. * Min Humidity..........34-44 percent...45-55 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......9 percent up...14 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Windy. East winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to southwest around 25 mph in the afternoon. Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-6500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest around 35 mph increasing to around 45 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .MONDAY...Colder, windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and slight chance of rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds around 30 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows around 13. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Warmer. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 50s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. $$ MTZ113-282300- Hill and Blaine Counties- 301 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......54-60. 24 hr trend......1 degree up. * Min Humidity..........20-27 percent. 24 hr trend......11 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 4000-5500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Northwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to west around 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......25-32. 24 hr trend......1 degree down. * Max Humidity..........72-82 percent. 24 hr trend......23 percent up...33 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........3500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......49-54. 24 hr trend......3 degrees down. * Min Humidity..........36-46 percent. 24 hr trend......18 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Ridges.............West winds 5 to 10 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 2500-4000 ft agl late in the morning. * Transport Winds.......North 20 to 25 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .MONDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Rain likely and chance of snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 30 mph. .TUESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Lows around 15. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds around 25 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Warmer. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. $$ MTZ114-282300- Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District- Rocky Mountain Front- 301 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......56-62...41-51 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........20-30 percent...32-42 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......13 percent up...6 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to west 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph. * Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 7000-8000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest around 25 mph increasing to west around 35 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......26-36. 24 hr trend......8 degrees down...unchanged higher elevations. * Max Humidity..........56-66 percent. 24 hr trend......7 percent up...12 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph. * Mixing Height.........6500 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 30 to 35 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of snow in the morning. Chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......51-59...36-46 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......3 degrees down...8 degrees down higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........34-44 percent...55-65 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......12 percent up...23 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 6000-7500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest around 45 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .MONDAY...Colder. Very windy. Mostly cloudy. Snow and chance of rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds around 40 mph. .TUESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 16. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds around 30 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow and slight chance of rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with snow and chance of rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. $$ MTZ115-282300- Chouteau and Fergus Counties- 301 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......58-63...52-59 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........19-25 percent. 24 hr trend......3 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-5500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......27-37...33-38 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Max Humidity..........61-71 percent...50-56 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......15 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 20 mph. Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. * Mixing Height.........4000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West around 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......54-59. 24 hr trend......5 degrees down. * Min Humidity..........34-41 percent. 24 hr trend......15 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 2500-3000 ft agl late in the morning, then increasing to 4500-6000 ft agl in the afternoon decreasing to 4000 ft agl late in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......West 25 to 30 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .MONDAY...Cooler, windy. Mostly cloudy with rain likely and chance of snow. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds around 30 mph. .TUESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows around 18. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds around 25 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Warmer. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with chance of snow and rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. $$ MTZ116-118-282300- Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest- Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest- 301 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......58-68...47-57 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......9 degrees up...3 degrees up higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........16-26 percent. 24 hr trend......1 percent up...7 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to west around 25 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 7500-8000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 20 to 25 mph increasing to west around 35 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......32-39. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........54-64 percent. 24 hr trend......14 percent up...21 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 25 mph. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 15 to 25 mph. * Mixing Height.........6000 ft agl decreasing to 1000-2500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 30 to 35 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......57-67...46-56 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......1 degree down. * Min Humidity..........28-38 percent...41-51 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......13 percent up...21 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Windy. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon. Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 8000-9500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest around 35 mph increasing to around 45 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .MONDAY...Colder. Very windy. Mostly cloudy with snow likely and chance of rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds around 35 mph. .TUESDAY...Very windy. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows around 19. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds around 35 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Warmer, windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and slight chance of rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. South winds around 25 mph. .THURSDAY...Colder. Snow with rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. $$ MTZ117-282300- Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas- 301 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......57-64...48-58 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up...10 degrees up higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........17-23 percent. 24 hr trend......10 percent up. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph. Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph. * Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 6500-7500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 25 to 30 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......31-37. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Max Humidity..........51-61 percent. 24 hr trend......11 percent up...22 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........4500 ft agl decreasing to 1000-2000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 25 to 30 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......57-62...47-56 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......3 degrees down. * Min Humidity..........32-42 percent. 24 hr trend......13 percent up...18 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to southwest around 25 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 7000-8000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest around 30 mph increasing to around 40 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .MONDAY...Colder, windy. Rain and snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds around 30 mph. .TUESDAY...Very windy. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows around 17. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds around 35 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Warmer. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 50s. South winds 20 to 25 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 40s. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. $$ weather.gov/greatfalls |
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030
FXUS65 KTFX 281032
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
432 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions prevail through the weekend with mild
temperatures and breezy afternoon winds supporting periods of
locally elevated fire danger across mainly southwest Montana.
- Cooler air begins to move back south into northern areas on
Sunday with windy and showery conditions following a cold front
through all areas on Monday.
- Cooler and unsettled conditions are expected for much of the
week ahead with increasing chances for precipitation late in
the week and mainly mountain snowfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 206 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026/
- Meteorological Overview:
A dry westerly flow aloft across the Northern Rockies and Montana
will bring some additional warming today with overall dry conditions
continuing through the weekend. Surface high pressure and a cooler
airmass begins to nose south from Alberta tonight and brings at
least a temporary shift to north winds and some cooling to
portions of north central MT on Sunday. More widespread cooling
occurs with the passage of a Pacific cold front across the region
Monday beneath an mid-upper level shortwave tracking east along
the International border. Windy conditions and a few showers
accompany and follow the cold front across the area with
widespread precipitation mainly limited to areas along the
continental divide north of MT-200 through GLacier NP.
Temperatures briefly warm again on Wednesday ahead of a larger
scale upper level trough dropping out of the Gulf of AK into the
NW US by Thursday. This system tracks across the Northern Rockies
and MT Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation
expected along with lower snow levels, though specific details are
still uncertain. Hoenisch
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Wind:
Afternoon mixing will support the downward transport of moderate
westerly mid level flow again today. High clouds may limit the full
potential of deep mixing and forecast gusts of 25-35 mph are the
most likely scenario. However, deeper mixing (above 700MB) is
indicated by some models and could be achieved with less cloud-
cover than currently anticipated. 700-500mb winds of 35-45kts could
be tapped in this scenario, which in combination with low afternoon
humidity would create locally elevated fire danger, particularly
across southwest MT, where afternoon RH is expected in the low teens
again today. Mid-level flow increases and turns more southwesterly
on Sunday, favoring SW MT for gusty winds. Depth of mixing will
again be key to potentially stronger winds than currently forecast.
Precip:
A plume of Pacific moisture is directed across NW MT ahead of the
initial upper level wave moving into the region late Sunday with a
period of steady precipitation likely along northern portions of the
Continental Divide (Glacier NP/Wilderness areas) through Monday
morning. Snow levels lower to 4000 ft or less by Monday morning with
Marias Pass having a 40-60% chance of receiving 4" or greater
snowfall amounts with higher amounts likely above 6000 ft. Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
28/12Z TAF Period.
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as high level
clouds/moisture gradually increase within a moderate westerly
flow aloft. West to southwest surface winds become breezy this
afternoon at most terminals and diminish this evening. Winds
shift to the north late this evening or overnight at KCTB and
KHVR. Hoenisch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 63 33 59 37 / 0 0 10 50
CTB 55 21 52 26 / 0 0 10 20
HLN 63 35 62 32 / 0 0 10 50
BZN 67 36 67 36 / 0 10 10 40
WYS 57 27 58 35 / 0 0 10 30
DLN 68 36 65 39 / 0 0 0 10
HVR 58 27 54 31 / 0 10 10 50
LWT 60 34 58 32 / 0 10 20 60
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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