Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

943
FNUS55 KTFX 210804
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
204 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.DISCUSSION...

Today is the hottest day of the week, with relative humidity
dropping well into the teens in many areas. Localized elevated fire
weather conditions will exist at the lower elevations between
Bozeman and Helena where southerly winds around 15-20 mph will
develop this afternoon.

The transition cooler begins Wednesday, initially in the form of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the
region. A cold front then sweeps through Wednesday evening, bringing
sharply cooler temperatures and gusty northwest winds to most areas.
Winter weather follows this cold front, most likely in northwesterly
upslope areas and in the mountains late Wednesday night into
Thursday. The gusty northwest winds slowly subside Thursday
evening into Friday. -AM

MTZ112-212230-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
204 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......74-79...65-72 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged...6 degrees up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........11-16 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the south in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 11500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......43-48.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........52-62 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent down...11 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the northwest after midnight.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........11000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......62-72...53-63 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down...15 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........36-46 percent...49-59 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......15 percent up...50 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph
increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 2500-4000 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 5500 ft agl early in
the afternoon increasing to 7500-9000 ft agl early in the
afternoon increasing to 9000-10000 ft agl decreasing to 7500 ft
agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Much colder. Very windy. Snow likely with possible
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
upper 30s. Northwest winds around 40 mph.
.FRIDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the
lower 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 30 mph.
.SATURDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows
around 20. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows around 20.
Highs in the lower 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows in the lower
20s. Highs around 50.

$$

MTZ113-212230-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
204 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......76-81...70-75 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........12-17 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down...8 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 8000-8500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......48-53.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........44-54 percent...38-44 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......7 percent down...unchanged higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........7000 ft agl decreasing to BELOW 1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......74-79...68-73 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........19-26 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the southwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 9000-10000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Much colder. Very windy. Showers with possible snow
and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.
Northwest winds around 35 mph.
.FRIDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the
mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 30 mph.
.SATURDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the
lower 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows in the lower
20s. Highs in the mid 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows in the mid
20s. Highs in the upper 40s.

$$

MTZ114-212230-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
204 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......74-79...60-70 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........13-22 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up...27 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 11500-12000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......41-47.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max Humidity..........45-55 percent.
24 hr trend......11 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........10500 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers in the morning, then showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-71...49-59 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......13 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........28-38 percent...45-55 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......15 percent up...22 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to
west 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph
increasing to west around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 3000 ft agl
late in the morning, then increasing to 5000-6500 ft agl late in
the morning increasing to 8500-10000 ft agl in the afternoon
decreasing to 7000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Much colder. Windy. Snow showers, showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
upper 30s. Northwest winds around 30 mph.
.FRIDAY...Windy. Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the
mid 30s. North winds around 25 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 20. Highs
in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 20. Highs in
the lower 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and slight chance of
rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 40s.

$$

MTZ115-212230-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
204 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......78-83...70-76 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........11-16 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent down...11 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 10000-11500
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......47-55.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........42-52 percent...37-42 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......7 percent down...1 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........9000 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast around 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......73-79...66-71 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........16-25 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 8000-9500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Much colder. Very windy. Showers with possible snow
and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs around 40.
Northwest winds around 40 mph.
.FRIDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows in the
mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 30 mph.
.SATURDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows in
the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds around
25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows in the lower
20s. Highs in the mid 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow. Lows in
the upper 20s. Highs around 50.

$$

MTZ116-118-212230-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
204 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......72-80...62-72 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........12-18 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent up...3 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20
to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Windy. South winds 15 to 20 mph increasing
to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 11000-12000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to around 30
mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......44-50.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........42-52 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. South winds 15 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........9000 ft agl decreasing to 1000-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......60-68...51-60 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......13 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........26-36 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. South winds 20 to 25 mph increasing
to southwest around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Very windy. South winds 30 to 35 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 4000 ft agl
late in the morning, then increasing to 6000 ft agl late in the
morning increasing to 8000-9500 ft agl late in the morning
increasing to 10500-11000 ft agl decreasing to 8500 ft agl late
in the afternoon decreasing to 6500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South around 45 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Much colder. Very windy. Snow showers, showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in
the mid 30s. Northwest winds around 35 mph.
.FRIDAY...Windy. Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the
mid 30s. North winds around 30 mph.
.SATURDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 20.
Highs in the upper 30s. North winds around 30 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the lower 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and slight chance of
rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 40s.

$$

MTZ117-212230-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
204 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......73-81...64-74 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up...1 degree up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........12-17 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20
to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000 ft agl increasing to 11500-12000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 20 to 25 mph increasing to around
30 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......45-52.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........40-50 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........9500 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......South around 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.WEDNESDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-73...56-66 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........19-29 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. South winds 20 to 25 mph increasing
to southwest around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 4000-5500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 7500-9000 ft agl late
in the morning increasing to 9000-10000 ft agl in the afternoon
decreasing to 8000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 35 to 40 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.THURSDAY...Much colder. Strong winds. Snow, showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid
30s. Northwest winds around 45 mph.
.FRIDAY...Very windy. Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs
in the lower 30s. Northwest winds around 35 mph.
.SATURDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 19.
Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 30 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 20. Highs in
the lower 40s.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and slight chance of
rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 40s.

$$

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818
FXUS65 KTFX 210749
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
149 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hottest day of the week for most today.

- Showers and thunderstorms in a few areas tomorrow afternoon
ahead of a cold front bringing much cooler temperatures, gusty
winds, and winter weather into Thursday.

- Unsettled with cool temperatures Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

- Meteorological Overview:

A long fetch of southerly flow aloft ahead of an upper level low
just off the Pacific coastline will result in the warmest day of the
week for many today. While the day looks to be dry for the vast
majority of areas, a few showers cannot be completely ruled out
given the ample surface heating and diffluent flow aloft this
afternoon and evening. A few elevated showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out tonight as better forcing aloft arrives.

As the upper low devolves more into a series of stronger open waves,
the mass drifts northeastward toward the Northern Rockies and
Northern Great Plains Wednesday. Sufficiently cool air aloft looks
to combine with forcing from the troughing and still very warm
surface temperatures across much of the region to result in showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The overall risk
for a strong to severe thunderstorm appears quite conditional and
localized at this time, but bears monitoring for changes in trends.

A cold front then moves across the region Wednesday night, bringing
gusty northwesterly winds (Mostly across the plains) and much cooler
temperatures. Northwesterly surface flow behind this cold front and
additional forcing from a trough diving South/Southeast from BC late
Wednesday night into Thursday will result in a stretch of winter
weather, mostly in the mountains and in northwesterly upslope
favored areas at lower elevations like the Lewistown area and areas
southeast of Great Falls toward the Little Belts. Although overall
snowfall amounts may not accumulate to large totals at lower
elevations, the combination of gusty northwest winds and falling
snow will result in difficult travel conditions and stress
infrastructure late Wednesday night and Thursday.

The aforementioned trough diving south or southeast from BC slows
and lingers near the Continental Divide in Southwest Montana
Thursday into Thursday night. This will aid in additional snowfall
along the Continental Divide and across Southwest Montana over this
timeframe.

Confidence in specifics wane after Thursday, but the overall pattern
of upper level troughing across the region persists through the
weekend. The main takeaway for this timeframe is for temperatures to
continue to be on the cooler side, with additional rounds of
precipitation at times. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Thunderstorms Wednesday:

Latest HREF guidance favors areas near the Canadian border for the
greatest instability Wednesday afternoon. The probability for 500+
J/Kg cape in this area is roughly 40%. Forecast soundings from the
most aggressive guidance does feature effective shear in excess of
30 kts in the favorable thermodynamic environment. All that to say
there is a conditional risk for strong to severe thunderstorms near
the Canadian border Wednesday afternoon, though the ingredients have
to come together perfectly for it to happen.

Active Weather Wednesday Evening into Thursday:

Temperatures are not rapid to respond to the cold front at lower
elevations Wednesday evening (At least with respect to becoming cold
enough to result in snow), which looks to delay the onset of snow at
lower elevations til late night. Nevertheless, the gusty winds and
snow that does develop at lower elevations (The best overlap for
this looks to be in northwesterly upslope areas over the plains)
looks to result in localized impacts to travel and infrastructure
through the day Thursday. The trend in amounts with this system has
generally been down slightly over the past day or so at lower
elevations, largely associated with better forcing trending eastward
into eastern Montana. Mountain areas still look to see impactful
snow, with the Little Belts seeing the greatest probability for 9
inches of snow (Greater than 80% at this time).

As for the gusty winds that develop behind the front, forecast
soundings are not overly concerning for high wind criteria.
Localized areas southeast of terrain in Fergus and Blaine counties
will have the greatest probability to see strong winds/gusts. Given
this threat appears localized and not high probability at this time,
no High Wind Watches have been issued. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
21/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Westerly flow
aloft backs to southerly Tuesday afternoon with some increase in
mid to high level cloud-cover. Generally light surface winds
persist through Tuesday morning with breezy south winds
developing at southwest MT terminals Tuesday afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 80 48 72 30 / 0 10 60 100
CTB 77 43 65 27 / 0 10 60 90
HLN 81 47 66 32 / 0 0 80 100
BZN 78 42 64 32 / 0 0 50 100
WYS 67 34 48 26 / 0 20 80 100
DLN 74 43 59 33 / 0 0 70 90
HVR 82 48 78 30 / 0 10 30 80
LWT 79 50 72 29 / 10 10 50 90

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin
and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little
Belt and Highwood Mountains.

Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and
Judith Gap-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

&&

$$
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