Major Hurricane Erin is tracking just north of the lower Bahamas today. Dangerous surf and rip current threats increase this week for most of the Atlantic coastline. Erin's outerbands may impact the Outer Banks later this week. Hot to extremely hot temperatures are forecast today and Tuesday from a part of the southern Plains into the central to lower Mississippi River Valley. Read More >
Fire Weather Forecast:
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248 FNUS55 KTFX 180859 FWFTFX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana National Weather Service Great Falls MT 259 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front and across portions of central Montana. The main hazards will be gusty, erratic winds and lightning. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to get hot with highs in the 90s and minimum RH values ranging from the teens to the mid 20s. The upper level ridge is expected to break down Wednesday into Thursday with cooler temperatures expected through the rest of the week. MTZ112-182300- Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty- 259 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......80-88...72-77 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up...8 degrees up higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........23-28 percent. 24 hr trend......Unchanged...8 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 9000-10000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......54-60. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........59-69 percent. 24 hr trend......7 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........8000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TUESDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......87-95...78-85 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......8 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........19-24 percent. 24 hr trend......4 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 12500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph increasing to southwest around 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .THURSDAY...Not as warm. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. $$ MTZ113-182300- Hill and Blaine Counties- 259 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......83-88...76-81 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........24-33 percent. 24 hr trend......9 percent down...2 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds around 5 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 8000-9000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......South 10 to 15 mph increasing to southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......58-65. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........64-74 percent...56-65 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......10 percent down...18 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds around 5 mph. Ridges.............South winds around 5 mph. * Mixing Height.........8500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......South 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TUESDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......92-97...85-90 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........21-30 percent. 24 hr trend......6 percent up...7 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds around 5 mph. Ridges.............South winds around 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 7500-9000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......South 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs around 90. North winds 10 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Not as warm. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. $$ MTZ114-182300- Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District- Rocky Mountain Front- 259 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......81-88...68-78 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......7 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........23-29 percent...28-38 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......2 percent down...8 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 10000-11000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 20 to 25 mph increasing to around 30 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. * Chance Lightning.......10 percent. * Min Temperature.......54-59. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........57-67 percent. 24 hr trend......4 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. * Mixing Height.........8000-9500 ft agl decreasing to 1000-1500 ft agl early in the evening. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TUESDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......88-96...75-85 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........16-26 percent. 24 hr trend......8 percent down...16 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 13500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. $$ MTZ115-182300- Chouteau and Fergus Counties- 259 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......85-90...75-82 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......6 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........26-33 percent. 24 hr trend......6 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Ridges.............South winds around 5 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 8000-9500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......58-65. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........62-72 percent...54-62 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......12 percent down...45 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds 5 to 10 mph. Ridges.............South winds 5 to 10 mph. * Mixing Height.........8500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TUESDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......94-99...85-92 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......8 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........17-22 percent. 24 hr trend......7 percent down...16 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Ridges.............South winds around 5 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 11000-12500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Not as warm. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. $$ MTZ116-118-182300- Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest- Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest- 259 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Chance Lightning.......20 percent. * Max Temperature.......80-88...71-80 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......13 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........24-33 percent. 24 hr trend......10 percent down...17 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 4000 ft agl late in the morning, then increasing to 8000-9500 ft agl early in the afternoon increasing to 10000-10500 ft agl decreasing to 8500 ft agl late in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 25 to 30 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. * Chance Lightning.......20 percent. * Min Temperature.......53-60. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........54-64 percent. 24 hr trend......36 percent down...30 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........7000 ft agl decreasing to 1000-1500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .TUESDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......88-96...78-88 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......6 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........12-18 percent. 24 hr trend......13 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 11500-13000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. $$ MTZ117-182300- Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas- 259 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......82-90...72-81 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........23-32 percent. 24 hr trend......8 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 9500-11000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. * Chance Lightning.......20 percent. * Min Temperature.......54-62. 24 hr trend......2 degrees up...8 degrees up higher elevations. * Max Humidity..........55-65 percent. 24 hr trend......21 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds 5 to 10 mph. Ridges.............South winds 5 to 10 mph. * Mixing Height.........10000 ft agl decreasing to 1000-1500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......South 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TUESDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......89-97...80-89 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......11 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........13-18 percent. 24 hr trend......10 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 11500-13000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s. .SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. $$ weather.gov/greatfalls |
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807
FXUS65 KTFX 181706
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1106 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon, with gusty winds and lightning being the main
concerns.
- Warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with
Tuesday expected to be the warmest day.
- Mostly dry conditions are expected through the rest of the week
with the exception of a cold front that is expected to move
through and bring a chance for rain Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 1002 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025/
The only change this morning was to increase the PoPs in
Jefferson county and vicinity. A few showers and a thunderstorm or
two have continued northeastward after forming in Idaho early this
morning. The thinking is that these showers slowly diminish late
this morning, though with increased daytime heating, the window
for them to diminish is becoming more and more narrow.
Additional showers and thunderstorms look to develop this
afternoon, initially in Beaverhead county and vicinity. These
showers and thunderstorms shifts northeastward through the
afternoon and evening, eventually making their way onto the
plains. Gusty winds and lightning are the primary concerns with
the stronger thunderstorms that form today. -AM
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1002 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Unstable southwest flow will continue today allowing for another
round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Overall these
thunderstorms are expected to be on the drier side compared to
previous days which will increase fire weather concerns with
gusty, erratic winds and lightning as the main hazards.
Upper level ridging will continue to build on Tuesday allowing for
temperatures to get into the mid to upper 90s across the plains
and valleys of central and southwest Montana. By Wednesday evening
into Thursday the ridge starts to flatten out as a trough comes
down across central and southern Canada. Depending on the timing
of the cold front, afternoon showers and thunderstorms may be
possible on Wednesday but the main benefit will be cooler
temperatures that will last through the remainder of the work
week.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Thunderstorms Today:
Yet another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is
expected this afternoon. Inverted-v soundings and DCAPE over 1000
J/kg in the models point towards another day of strong gusty
winds out of any thunderstorm that develops with an isolated
chance for severe wind gusts out of stronger downbursts.
One of the big concerns for this afternoon is that these storms
will trend on the drier side particularly across southwest
Montana. The potential for frequent lightning along with gusty
winds will raise fire weather concerns through the afternoon. North
of I-90 PWAT values start increasing which will allow for some
wetter thunderstorms to develop across central Montana through the
early evening hours. Compared to yesterday the track and coverage
of storms is expected to be fairly similar.
Heat Tuesday and Wednesday:
When looking at the HeatRisk, there are areas across Fergus and
Blaine counties that touch the major category on Tuesday and there
is some justification for a heat advisory based on Tuesday`s high
temperatures and dewpoints. However, temperatures cool off into the
low to mid 60s overnight and while Wednesday is expected to reach
the 90s again, overall, temperatures are expected stay below
critical thresholds. Because the main threat seems to be only
Tuesday afternoon, for now, the decision was made to hold off on
issuing a heat advisory. However, this is a developing situation and
if updated model guidance trends warmer for Wednesday it is possible
an advisory may be needed.
Late Wednesday and Beyond:
The latest model guidance shows the ridge flattening out as a trough
moves across central and southern Canada. Currently the best
estimate for timing between Wednesday afternoon and early
Thursday morning. There remains some uncertainty with how this
event will play out with even minor changes in the track and
timing potentially having a significant impact. If the associated
cold front arrives earlier on Wednesday it may become a concern
for severe weather along the Hi-Line and if the trough is able to
make it farther south it may be able to impact more of the
region. Right now those are the two main questions that have yet
to receive a definitive answer but will be monitored closely with
future updates. -thor
&&
.AVIATION...
18/18Z TAF Period
Primary concern this TAF period will be for scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing early this afternoon across Southwest
Montana, shifting northeastward through the afternoon and evening
into Central Montana. Gusty and erratic winds and lightning are the
primary concerns with thunderstorms.
Otherwise impacts from regional wildfires will continue to result in
localized reduction to surface visibility, with more widespread
slant-range visibility reductions. -AM
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to continue through
today. A mix of wet and dry showers/thunderstorms can produce
strong erratic wind gusts and frequent lightning. This can
lead to new lightning starts and easier fire spread with gusty
outflow winds and lower minimum humidities. -Wilson
Fire weather concerns will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the 90s expected across the plains and valleys across
the region. Minimum RH values will range from the single digits to
the mid teens with Tuesday expected to be the warmest and driest day
of the week. Winds are less of a concern these days, however, an
isolated afternoon dry thunderstorm cannot be ruled out which will
keep fire weather concerns elevated until a cold front passes
through late Wednesday into Thursday. -thor
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 89 59 96 60 / 10 20 0 10
CTB 84 54 91 59 / 0 20 0 10
HLN 89 58 96 59 / 20 50 0 0
BZN 89 53 96 55 / 20 20 0 0
WYS 82 40 86 43 / 20 10 0 0
DLN 86 49 93 52 / 20 20 0 0
HVR 90 60 96 61 / 0 10 0 10
LWT 85 58 93 59 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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