A slow moving front will be the focus area for heavy to excessive rainfall and a threat for flash/urban flooding across parts of the Gulf Coast into central/northern Florida early this week. Abnormally hot, potentially record-breaking, temperatures will continue for southern California and stretch north toward the Bay Area and Central Valley this week. Read More >
Fire Weather Forecast:
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134 FNUS55 KTFX 040933 FWFTFX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana National Weather Service Great Falls MT 333 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026 ...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Monday With Very Warm Temperatures, Low Afternoon Humidity and Gusty West Winds... .DISCUSSION... An extended period of dry and mild conditions is expected through much of the upcoming week before an anticipated change next weekend. Monday will be the warmest with afternoon temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages for early October. Breezy to locally windy conditions are also expected to develop Monday alongside the warm temperatures with afternoon humidity as low as around 20 percent. Hoenisch MTZ112-042230- Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty- 333 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......70-75...63-70 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......8 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........27-37 percent. 24 hr trend......4 percent down...14 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds around 5 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 4000-4500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......South 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......45-52. 24 hr trend......10 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........52-62 percent. 24 hr trend......16 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Windy. South winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to southwest around 25 mph after midnight. Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 30 to 35 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......71-81...62-72 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......6 degrees up...3 degrees down higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........17-24 percent...25-35 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......16 percent down...5 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 30 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 5000-5500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West around 35 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds around 25 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. .SATURDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 40s. $$ MTZ113-042230- Hill and Blaine Counties- 333 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......68-73. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........31-36 percent. 24 hr trend......7 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 3000-3500 ft agl in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......43-52. 24 hr trend......6 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........62-72 percent. 24 hr trend......8 percent up...9 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 20 to 25 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......76-82...69-74 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......9 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........18-24 percent. 24 hr trend......16 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-6500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 25 to 30 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 70. North winds around 5 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. .SATURDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s. $$ MTZ114-042230- Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District- Rocky Mountain Front- 333 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......74-79...61-71 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......9 degrees up...4 degrees up higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........23-32 percent. 24 hr trend......7 percent down...12 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 5000-6000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......46-55. 24 hr trend......13 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........43-53 percent. 24 hr trend......51 percent down...22 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Windy. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph after midnight. Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph increasing to west around 30 mph after midnight. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest around 25 mph increasing to around 40 mph after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......73-82...59-69 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......Unchanged. * Min Humidity..........16-23 percent...25-35 percent higher elevations. 24 hr trend......12 percent down...1 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 20 to 30 mph. Ridges.............Windy. West winds 20 to 30 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 5000-6000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West around 40 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70. West winds around 30 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. .SATURDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 40s. $$ MTZ115-042230- Chouteau and Fergus Counties- 333 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......72-77...65-75 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......5 degrees up...10 degrees up higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........28-37 percent. 24 hr trend......3 percent down...8 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Ridges.............Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 3000-4000 ft agl in the afternoon. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......47-55. 24 hr trend......9 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........48-58 percent. 24 hr trend......11 percent down...30 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. Ridges.............South winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. * Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southeast 20 to 25 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......80-85...71-80 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......9 degrees up...4 degrees up higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........14-20 percent. 24 hr trend......17 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph. Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 6000-7500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 30 to 35 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. North winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. .SATURDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. $$ MTZ116-118-042230- Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest- Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest- 333 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......72-79...63-72 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......8 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........21-30 percent. 24 hr trend......4 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 4500-5500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......45-52. 24 hr trend......7 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........44-54 percent. 24 hr trend......22 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 20 to 25 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......73-82...63-73 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......3 degrees up...2 degrees down higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........17-26 percent. 24 hr trend......5 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 3000-4000 ft agl late in the morning, then increasing to 5500-7000 ft agl early in the afternoon increasing to 7000-8500 ft agl late in the afternoon decreasing to 6000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West around 30 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 70. .SATURDAY...Cooler. Partly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s. $$ MTZ117-042230- Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas- 333 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .TODAY... * Sky/Weather...........Sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......74-80...65-74 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......10 degrees up. * Min Humidity..........22-28 percent. 24 hr trend......11 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-6000 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Min Temperature.......47-57. 24 hr trend......12 degrees up. * Max Humidity..........36-46 percent. 24 hr trend......31 percent down...23 percent down higher elevations. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph. Ridges.............Windy. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph after midnight. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......South 20 to 25 mph increasing to southwest around 30 mph after midnight. * CWR...................0 percent. .MONDAY... * Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. * Chance Lightning.......0 percent. * Max Temperature.......75-84...67-77 higher elevations. 24 hr trend......6 degrees up...1 degree up higher elevations. * Min Humidity..........13-20 percent. 24 hr trend......7 percent down. * Wind (20 FT). Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds around 25 mph. Ridges.............Windy. West winds around 25 mph. * Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 6000-7500 ft agl. * Transport Winds.......West 30 to 35 mph. * CWR...................0 percent. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...... .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds 20 to 25 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. .SATURDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s. $$ weather.gov/greatfalls |
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767
FXUS65 KTFX 042301
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
501 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday, with warmest temperatures
expected on Monday.
- Elevated fire weather concerns develop with breezy to locally gusty
conditions across portions of north-central MT Monday.
- Confidence is increasing for shift towards cooler/wetter weather
beginning Saturday and continuing through at least Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1212 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026/
- Meteorological Overview:
Dry and mild conditions persist across the Northern Rockies and MT
through much of the upcoming work week as large scale ridging
remains centered across the SW US with the ridge flattening some
after Monday. The warmest daytime temperatures are on track for
Monday as increased mid-level westerly flow over the flattening
ridge provides some additional warming to the lee of the Rockies.
This also results in increased surface winds on Monday, particularly
across north-central MT where gusts in excess of 30 mph are likely
in areas adjacent to the Rockies and central MT mountains. After
peaking around 20 degrees above seasonal averages Monday with a few
locations potentially approaching daily records, temperatures are
likely to remain 10-15 degrees above average through Friday. Hoenisch
Confidence is increasing for a significant change in the current
weather pattern beginning Saturday due to the development of an
upper level trough and cold air moving into the region. While
Saturday is expected to be 10-20 degrees cooler than Friday, there
is increasing confidence that this will be followed by another 5-15
degree drop between Saturday and Sunday. Additionally, while there
is uncertainty with accumulation amounts, most models are beginning
to agree that there is the potential for some form of widespread
snowfall Saturday night into the beginning of the following week.
Actual accumulations will likely be dependent on the amount of
moisture and the timing of the second cool off as the bulk of the
precip is currently expected Saturday night through Sunday. ESH
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main weather hazard to watch over the coming days will be
elevated fire weather concerns developing Monday as anomalously warm
afternoon temperatures combine with low afternoon humidity and
breezy to locally windy conditions. This is most pronounced across
areas areas from the east slopes of the Rocky Mtn Front eastward
across areas adjacent to the central MT mountains where wind gusts
in excess of 30-35 mph are most likely. While fuels are not
currently critical, these conditions will begin a trend toward
higher fire danger in the upcoming week. Hoenisch
While there is still uncertainty with the potential widespread snow
event next weekend, confidence is increasing for snow accumulations
of over 1" for western and central Montana. Models are currently
favoring the Rockies and central Montana for the highest totals,
although most models do have total snow accumulations remaining
under 5". It is worth noting, as we are still many days out from the
potential event, we could still see large swings in the model
outputs, especially for total snow accumulations. ESH
&&
.AVIATION...
05/00Z TAF Period.
The primary concern this TAF period will be for gusty winds
developing, mainly over the plains, during the morning hours Monday
and lasting through the afternoon. While a few instances of low-
level wind shear will be possible just before gusty surface winds
ensue Monday morning, confidence in timing and duration is too
low to warrant mention in the TAFs at this time. -AM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 53 84 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 48 76 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 48 83 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 46 81 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 36 76 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 46 82 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 45 82 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 54 83 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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