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946
FXUS65 KTFX 181554 CCA
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
954 AM MDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.UPDATE...

The upper level low responsible for today`s rainfall remains
stationary over southwest Idaho, continuing to push moisture
across the region. Rainfall amounts so far today range from around
one-third to two-thirds of an inch across North-central Montana,
with localized areas exceeding an inch near eastern slopes of
mountain ranges. The wettest area today appears to be over western
Teton County. Short-term model guidance observations reveal some
breaks in precipitation advancing from the southeast. Thus, expect
a transition to rain showers and possible thunderstorms through
the afternoon, with additional rounds of rain redeveloping into
the evening. The overall forecast reflects these trends, so only
minor updates were needed to match observed trends.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will slowly move through the
region from today through Wednesday. As a result, expect periods
of rain today and tomorrow, along with an isolated thunderstorm. A
few showers and thunderstorms are then possible Wednesday through
Friday, as afternoon temperatures climb back towards seasonal
normals.

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1000z.
Light rain continues to move northward from Southwest MT into
Central MT. This trend will continue through today, with the rain
moving into the northern portions North Central MT by mid morning.
Expect IFR and LIFR conditions with low clouds/precip. Mountains
will be obscured at times through the period. Brusda

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood watches continue, with no changes to the current highlight.

The potential for moderate to heavy rainfall will continue over
the watch area. There is a slight risk for flash flooding later
today, if a convective shower develops.

The Dearborn River could go above flood stage later today. We
will evaluate further with the morning run of river forecast to
decide on whether to change this to a warning for a short time.

Other rivers to watch over the next few days include the Sun River
near Simms, Tenmile Creek and Prickly Pear Creek in the Helena
Valley. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 415 AM MDT Mon Jun 18 2018/
Today through Wednesday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will move from west to east over the region from today
through Wednesday. Expect periods of rain today through Tuesday,
with showers diminishing from west to east on Wednesday. The
rainfall could be heavy at times today, causing minor flooding
issues. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible later
today/evening as the airmass becomes a bit unstable near the
center of the upper level low. Afternoon temperatures will be well
below normal, but overnight lows will be above normal because of
the high dew points.

Thursday through Monday...Overall a warm day is expected on
Thursday as I raised temperatures a few degrees over the national
blends. A fast moving cold front moves through Thursday
afternoon/evening. Some storms could be strong ahead of the front.
Expect a chance for storms continuing for Fri/Sat as an upper trof
moves through. Weak ridging on Sunday should allow for a
warm/mostly dry day, with another fast moving cool front moving
through the region by late Monday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 57 52 63 50 / 100 90 60 50
CTB 56 49 61 47 / 100 90 90 40
HLN 59 50 63 50 / 100 80 70 60
BZN 58 46 64 47 / 90 60 80 40
WEY 52 39 57 39 / 80 50 60 50
DLN 59 44 62 44 / 70 60 60 30
HVR 66 54 69 51 / 60 90 50 20
LWT 55 48 61 47 / 100 90 50 50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon Broadwater...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern Teton...
Jefferson...Judith Basin...Meagher...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

Flood Watch through this evening Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

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