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278
FXUS65 KTFX 211053
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
353 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty to locally strong north to northwest winds this morning across
eastern portions of north-central Montana will gradually
diminish through this afternoon.

- A colder airmass expands across the area Thursday and Friday
with the greatest risk for subzero temperatures and wind chills
across the north-central Montana plains Thursday night through
Friday morning.

- Some very light snow or flurries are possible as the cold air moves
into the region Thursday and Thursday night with additional
opportunities for mainly light snow as temperatures moderate
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

- Meteorological Overview:

The area remains under a cyclonic north to northwest flow aloft on
the western periphery of a deep/large scale upper level trough. An
embedded shortwave perturbation is rippling across central/eastern
MT this morning, bringing another period of gusty N/NW surface winds
to noth-central MT. Locally strong gusts continue through this
morning mainly across portions of Blaine and Fergus counties as a
low level wind maximum (50kts at 850mb) zips across these areas in
association with the shortwave. Except for an increase in lower to
mid level clouds and perhaps a few morning flurries across eastern
portions of north-central MT, mainly dry conditions are expected
today as slightly cooler airmass continues to filter in from the
north with temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.

The center of the deep Canadian upper trough rotates from Hudson Bay
across southern Manitoba and Ontario Thursday and Friday with a
strong (~1050mb) surface high pivoting around its west side from the
Canadian prairies to the Dakotas. While the core of this cold
airmass remains well to the east, colder air will expand across the
area Thursday into Friday with areas on the plains and particularly
Hill and Blaine counties seeing the coldest conditions and lowest
temperatures occurring Friday morning. As the cold air
expands/deepens across the plains late Thursday and Thursday night,
there may be enough low level moisture to wring out some very light
snow or flurries, especially where low level N/NE upslope flow
impinges on the central MT mountain ranges and Rocky Mtn Front.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the colder air recedes as the strong
surface high pivots away from the area and upper troughing shifts
further east. A general NW flow aloft looks to persist however with
longer range models/ensembles keeping an upper level ridge axis west
of the area. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the
details of energy within the NW flow this weekend into early next
week with some potential for additional disturbances to bring some
opportunities for light snow, but with low confidence in timing for
now. Hoenisch

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The colder airmass expanding into the region on Thursday will be
deepest across the north-central MT plains, where temperatures will
fall to the single digits above/below zero Thursday night and
potentially as low as the teens below zero across Hill and Blaine
counties. The probability for minimum temps of 10 below zero or
colder Friday morning ranges from around 50-60% for areas from Cut
Bank to Great Falls and Lewistown to 80% or higher across Hill and
Blaine counties. Strong surface high pressure centered east of the
area will likely provide enough wind (10-15 mph) to support wind
chills as low as 15 below to 20 below across portions of north-
central MT with a 60-80% risk of 20-30 below zero wind chills across
Hill and Blaine counties. Cold advisory statements are likely for
portions of north-central MT for the Thursday night period. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
21/06Z TAF Period

The primary concern this TAF period will be for a period of gusty
northwest winds developing through the night tonight, mainly over
the plains east of I-15. These winds slowly subside toward the
afternoon hours Wednesday. At least a brief period of lower clouds
moves in Wednesday morning, though confidence in persistent sub-VFR
conditions was too low in most locations to prevail it at this time.
-AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 30 11 20 -3 / 0 0 20 20
CTB 27 5 14 -8 / 0 0 20 20
HLN 31 11 23 2 / 0 0 0 10
BZN 31 10 25 2 / 0 0 0 10
WYS 26 -2 26 -4 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 35 14 30 7 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 1 10 -15 / 0 0 10 10
LWT 26 6 16 -7 / 10 0 10 20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus
County below 4500ft-Northern Blaine County.

&&

$$
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