Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

475
FNUS55 KTFX 170833
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
233 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.DISCUSSION...

Northwesterly flow aloft will bring cooler, showery, and breezy
to windy conditions today, particularly for the central and
northern zones. There will be some widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the northern zones on Thursday, otherwise,
general warmer and drier and conditions are expected for the first
half of the weekend before showers and thunderstorms return by
Saturday evening.

MTZ112-172215-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
233 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......64-70...56-62 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......15 degrees down...7 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 6000-7500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers
after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......42-47.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........82-92 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent up...4 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........4500-5500 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 25 mph decreasing to 15 to
20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-70...57-62 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........39-48 percent...48-56 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......1 percent up...9 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............North winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 6500-7000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 15 to 20 mph increasing to around
25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.JUNETEENTH...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 70s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cooler, windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in
the mid 60s. Northwest winds around 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
70s.

$$

MTZ113-172215-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
233 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-69...56-61 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........46-56 percent.
24 hr trend......15 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 5500-6000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 35 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in
the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......43-48.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........86-96 percent.
24 hr trend......16 percent up...2 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph becoming west
10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to
around 5 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........3500-5000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl in the late evening and overnight.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 30 mph decreasing to 15 to
20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......65-70...57-62 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........42-52 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 5500-6000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.JUNETEENTH...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper
70s. East winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cooler, windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest
winds around 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
70s.

$$

MTZ114-172215-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
233 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......66-71...53-63 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........32-40 percent...40-50 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......9 percent up...2 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 7500-9000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of
showers after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......40-47.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........76-86 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
west after midnight.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........5000-6000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph becoming west 10 to
15 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......66-72...55-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........35-42 percent...41-51 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......6 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the north in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 6500-7500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.JUNETEENTH...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 70s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cooler. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
70s.

$$

MTZ115-172215-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
233 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......66-72...57-64 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........34-43 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds around 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 6500-8000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 40 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers through
the night.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......43-48.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........77-87 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent up...6 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph becoming west
10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph becoming west
10 to 15 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........5000-6000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 35 mph becoming west 15 to
20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......67-72...58-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 7000-8000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph increasing to northwest
around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.JUNETEENTH...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the
lower 80s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Not as warm. Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 70.
Northwest winds around 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs around 70.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 70s.

$$

MTZ116-118-172215-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
233 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......10 percent.
* Max Temperature.......65-75...55-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........29-39 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent up...11 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 9000-10000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 25 to 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in
the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......41-47.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........65-75 percent.
24 hr trend......17 percent up...1 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph becoming west
around 5 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph becoming west
10 to 15 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........7000-8000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 25 mph becoming west 10 to
15 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......69-79...59-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........25-35 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent down...12 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the northwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 9500-10500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.JUNETEENTH...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
mid 70s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 15 to
20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds
20 to 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 70.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper
70s.

$$

MTZ117-172215-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
233 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-72...54-63 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......17 degrees down...12 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........34-44 percent.
24 hr trend......17 percent up...12 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds around 30 mph
decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1500-2500 ft agl increasing to 7000-8500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 35 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......39-46.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........73-83 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent up...5 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph becoming
southwest around 5 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds around 25 mph
decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........5000-5500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest around 30 mph becoming west 15 to
20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......65-73...56-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........34-44 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-1000 ft agl increasing to 2500 ft agl
early in the morning, then increasing to 4500-6000 ft agl late in
the morning increasing to 7000-8500 ft agl late in the morning
increasing to 7500-9000 ft agl decreasing to 6500 ft agl late in
the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.JUNETEENTH...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s. East winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southeast winds around 25 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.

$$

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343
FXUS65 KTFX 171112
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
512 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy at times Wednesday afternoon with stronger winds
possible around any thunderstorm that develops.

- Cooler and wetter conditions continue on Thursday with another
chance for afternoon thunderstorms.

- More seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday before cooling
off again Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1202 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026/

- Meteorological Overview:

Breezy conditions are expected on Wednesday across portions of
Central Montana but to a lesser extent than what was observed on
Tuesday. Northwesterly flow will remain in place through Thursday
bringing daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

On Friday, upper-level ridging starts to build bringing a day of
warmer and drier conditions to the region. Saturday into Sunday the
ridge flattens a bit with allows for a brief period of precipitation
before building back over the western CONUS through at least the
middle of next week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Gusts up to 35 mph are possible Wednesday afternoon, especially
along the Hi-Line and Central Montana east of a line between
Inverness and Geyser. Afternoon instability is enough that isolated
thunderstorms are possible across the Northern Plains. With DCAPE
values in the 400-800 J/kg range, strong wind gusts are possible
with any thunderstorm that develops. The overall severe threat is
quite low but it is definitely within the range of possibilities for
a couple thunderstorms to turn severe on Wednesday afternoon,
particularly when it comes to severe wind gusts.

On Thursday, the models are a little split on the potential. The NAM
and RDPS are relatively more robust in SFC CAPE. Whereas the GFS and
HRRR seem a little less convinced. The main uncertainty is how a
potential shortwave might behave as it dips down out of Alberta.
Currently both the GFS and Euro have it missing us whereas the NAM
has it clipping the northeastern portion of our CWA. The placement
and track of this shortwave will be the main thing to watch as it
will directly play into how the thunderstorm potential will play
out. -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
17/12Z TAF Period

An area of concentrated showers between KGTF and KLWT will slowly
dissipate through 17/15Z. Northwesterly flow aloft will maintain
periods of widely scattered showers and low VFR clouds for much
of the forecast period, with shower activity being most widespread
over north-central MT this afternoon and tonight. VFR conditions
will generally prevail, but there will be some MVFR stratus and
mountain obscuration over and near the central island ranges
through around 17/16Z, mostly impacting KHLN and KLWT. Then
ceilings may trend towards MVFR over the plains tonight, mostly
after 18/06Z. - RCG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 71 47 72 46 / 30 30 30 0
CTB 67 44 67 43 / 30 50 30 0
HLN 74 48 78 48 / 10 20 0 0
BZN 74 44 79 45 / 10 10 0 0
WYS 73 34 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 76 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 69 44 70 43 / 30 20 60 10
LWT 66 41 67 41 / 20 20 50 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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