Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

921
FNUS55 KTFX 241924
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
124 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Coverage of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
will increase beginning Friday into early next week. The showers
and thunderstorms largely look to be south of a Great Falls to
Lewistown line Friday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and
lightning will be concerns with this activity Friday, with hail
becoming a concern as well heading into the weekend. In the
meantime, the remainder of today looks dry, with typical afternoon
breeziness. Temperatures largely look to fall in the vicinity of
average over the upcoming week, with afternoon humidity trending
less dry next week. -AM

MTZ112-251015-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
124 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......52-57.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Max Humidity..........57-67 percent.
24 hr trend......36 percent down...9 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........8000-9500 ft agl decreasing to BELOW 1000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......79-89...69-78 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........18-28 percent...27-35 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 20 to 25 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 20 to 25 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 9000-10000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......49-54.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........82-92 percent...73-83 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......23 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........8500 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......10 percent.
* Max Temperature.......76-85...69-74 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees down...2 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........33-39 percent.
24 hr trend......16 percent up...3 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 7500-8500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80. East winds
10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 80.

$$

MTZ113-251015-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
124 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......55-61.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........56-66 percent...49-55 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......36 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........9000-10000 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft
agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......86-92...78-84 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........17-22 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 8500-10000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......53-61.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........68-78 percent...56-66 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......21 percent up...6 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing Height.........9500 ft agl decreasing to 500-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......82-87...74-80 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........30-38 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............North winds 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-6500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......North 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west in
the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds 10 to
15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80. Northeast winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. East winds 10 to
15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.

$$

MTZ114-251015-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
124 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......50-58.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max Humidity..........51-61 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........8500-9500 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 20 to 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......81-89...68-78 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........17-23 percent...22-32 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......5 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-1500 ft agl increasing to 9000-10500
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 30 to 35 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......48-55.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........63-73 percent...50-60 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......23 percent up...unchanged higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........10000 ft agl decreasing to 500-1000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 20
mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......79-86...67-77 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down...3 degrees up higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........26-36 percent.
24 hr trend......15 percent up...8 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the southeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 8500-9500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph increasing to southwest
around 25 mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80. Northeast
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.

$$

MTZ115-251015-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
124 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......56-62.
24 hr trend......Unchanged...5 degrees up higher elevations.
* Max Humidity..........54-64 percent.
24 hr trend......30 percent down...42 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........8500-10000 ft agl decreasing to BELOW 1000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......86-93...79-84 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........17-22 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 10000-11000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......10 percent.
* Min Temperature.......54-62.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Max Humidity..........62-72 percent...48-58 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......5 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........11000 ft agl decreasing to BELOW 1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 25 mph decreasing to 15 to 20
mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......83-89...75-81 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........28-36 percent.
24 hr trend......15 percent up...10 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the north in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northeast in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-1500 ft agl increasing to 6000-6500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. East winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. East winds 10 to
15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 60. Highs in the mid 80s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 60. Highs in the mid 80s.

$$

MTZ116-118-251015-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
124 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......51-58.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........47-57 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........9500-10500 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......82-90...71-81 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........17-25 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 11000-12000
ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest around 30 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......51-57.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........62-72 percent...52-62 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......6 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to
around 5 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........9000 ft agl decreasing to 1000-2500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest around 25 mph decreasing to 15 to
20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......30 percent.
* Max Temperature.......80-89...71-81 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........22-32 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............West winds around 5 mph increasing to 10 to
15 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 4000-5500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 7000-8000 ft agl
early in the afternoon increasing to 9000-10500 ft agl early in
the afternoon decreasing to 6500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 80. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 80. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.

$$

MTZ117-251015-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
124 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Min Temperature.......51-59.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........48-58 percent.
24 hr trend......27 percent down...55 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........9000-10000 ft agl decreasing to 1000-2500
ft agl early in the evening.
* Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......82-92...73-82 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........16-25 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000 ft agl increasing to 9500-11000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West around 25 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......50-57.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Max Humidity..........60-70 percent...51-61 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......5 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........10500 ft agl decreasing to BELOW 1000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Southwest around 25 mph becoming west 15 to
20 mph after midnight.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......30 percent.
* Max Temperature.......79-87...71-80 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........25-35 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
east in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 3500 ft agl
late in the morning, then increasing to 5500-7000 ft agl late in
the morning increasing to 8500-10000 ft agl early in the
afternoon decreasing to 8000 ft agl decreasing to 5500 ft agl
late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......West 15 to 20 mph shifting to the south in
the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. East winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. East
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80.

$$

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016
FXUS65 KTFX 250154
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
754 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures over the next week.

- Dry today, though coverage and intensity of thunderstorms
increases Friday into the weekend.

- Daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, some which look
to be on the stronger side, persists into much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

There was just enough instability to initiate isolated convection
along the Idaho border in far Southwest Montana this evening.
This activity should fade out over the next couple of hours or
so. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and diminishing winds are
expected tonight. A strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will
bring breezy conditions to most areas on Friday. Widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop over
Southwest Montana in the afternoon before moving northward into
Central Montana later in the evening. Localized strong wind gusts
and isolated lightning will be the primary storm hazards to watch
for. - RCG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 136 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025/

- Meteorological Overview:

A broad, overall lower amplitude upper level ridge will set up
across the eastern half of the CONUS over much of the upcoming week.
This setup will result in a persistent southwesterly flow aloft for
the Northern Rockies, which will become increasingly conducive to
shower and thunderstorm development, mainly in the afternoon and
evening through the upcoming week.

The ridge well to the east is just beginning to build today,
which is resulting in a more zonal flow aloft across the Northern
Rockies. Given the lack of forcing today and temperatures aloft
that are a touch too warm, the region looks to stay dry. That
said, a few showers near the ID border near Monida Pass and
vicinity cannot be ruled out this evening.

Flow becomes increasingly southwesterly Friday across the Northern
Rockies, with a compact upstream upper trough/low over CA shedding
some vorticity toward Montana Friday afternoon and evening. This
will support convective initiation in the early to mid-afternoon
hours across Southwest Montana, with activity shifting northeastward
into Central Montana in the late afternoon and evening. Forecast
soundings demonstrate deep inverted-V profiles, with limited shear.
Hence, the main threat for Friday appears to be gusty winds, with
some gusts in excess of 50 mph, as well as lightning. As this
activity shifts onto the plains Friday evening, increasing
convective inhibition should result in a diminishing trend after
sunset.

The overall setup does not change much this weekend, though flow
aloft does increase in magnitude, with slightly cooler temperatures
aloft as well. This will result in larger instability as well as
better shear, which will be more supportive of organized stronger to
severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. The strongest
thunderstorms this weekend will support the risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail. Timing continues to be in the afternoon
through early evening with this activity, though with increasingly
cooler temperatures aloft, elevated overnight showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

To not drag on saying the same things over and over again, much of
early next week is looking similar to this weekend, with daily
opportunities for strong to severe thunderstorms, most favored in
the afternoon and evening. The main difference moving deeper into
next week will be for increasing PWATs from better surface flow from
the east over the plains. Should storm motion be on the slower side
when the better moisture arrives, there would be an increased risk
for localized flash flooding from more persistent showers and
thunderstorms over any given area. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Overall confidence levels in the evolution of the broad scale
pattern is high. Day to day uncertainty related to the timing and
exact placement of mesoscale features will continue until 12 to 24
hours prior to each round of showers and thunderstorms.

Gusty winds will be the main concern Friday with large hail also
becoming a concern Saturday and beyond where thunderstorms form.
As mentioned in the overview section above, moisture increases
toward the middle of next week, which will raise concerns for at
least localized heavy rain on top of threats already mentioned. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAF Period

Decreasing winds and mostly clear skies are expected tonight.
Southwesterly flow aloft strengthens on Friday and brings increased
west to southwesterly surface winds with gusts mostly staying in the
15 to 30 kt range. Widely scattered shower and thunderstorm
development will initiate over the higher terrain of Southwest
Montana after 25/20Z before moving north and eastward over the
central and southwest valleys through 26/06Z. Localized gusty
winds in excess of 35 kts and isolated lightning will be the
primary hazards. Afternoon temperatures on Friday will reach and
exceed 90 degrees for most terminals, potentially causing density
altitude concerns. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 58 91 55 87 / 0 0 0 20
CTB 53 82 50 79 / 0 0 0 20
HLN 57 91 56 87 / 0 20 20 30
BZN 53 91 52 91 / 0 20 20 20
WYS 41 81 39 81 / 10 20 0 10
DLN 49 86 48 85 / 0 30 30 30
HVR 57 91 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 55 86 54 82 / 0 20 40 20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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