Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

803
FNUS55 KTFX 040751
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
151 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.DISCUSSION...

A disturbance moving across the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies will bring cooler and wetter conditions to Southwest through
North Central Montana through Saturday, with generally a 30-60%
chance for 0.5" of rainfall across all Fire Weather Zones through
Saturday night. Temperatures will then begin to moderate back
above seasonal normals through the second half of the weekend and
first half of the upcoming work week, with predominately dry
conditions expected. - Moldan

MTZ112-042230-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
151 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......70-79...63-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......19 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........35-42 percent.
24 hr trend......21 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 6500-7500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in
the evening. Showers likely through the night. Slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Min Temperature.......48-53.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Max Humidity..........91-99 percent.
24 hr trend......21 percent up...26 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the east after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........4500-6000 ft agl decreasing to 1000-1500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................50 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the
morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the day. Chance
of showers in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......60-69...54-59 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......17 degrees down...11 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........57-67 percent.
24 hr trend......22 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon.
Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1500-3000 ft agl increasing to 3500-4000 ft
agl early in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Warmer. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 15 to
20 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s.
North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 80s.
South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
lower 90s.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
mid 80s.

$$

MTZ113-042230-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
151 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......0 percent.
* Max Temperature.......76-81...70-76 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......13 degrees down...8 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........30-35 percent.
24 hr trend......15 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 7000-8000 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the night.
Showers likely after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......50-57.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........81-91 percent.
24 hr trend......12 percent up...34 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........8000 ft agl decreasing to 1500-2500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
morning, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......66-71...59-64 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......10 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........50-60 percent.
24 hr trend......20 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the west in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1500-3000 ft agl increasing to 3500-5000 ft
agl in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......East 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80. North winds
10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Warmer. Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in
the lower 90s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Highs in the mid 90s.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs around
90.

$$

MTZ114-042230-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
151 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......69-76...56-66 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees down...8 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........39-49 percent.
24 hr trend......25 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 3500-4000 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 5000-6000 ft agl in
the afternoon decreasing to 3500 ft agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the
evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the night. Chance
of showers after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Min Temperature.......44-53.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........89-99 percent.
24 hr trend......44 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southwest after midnight.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......North 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................40 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the day. Showers
likely in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......63-70...50-60 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........47-57 percent...56-66 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......19 percent up...11 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 5500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Warmer. Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in
the mid 70s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper
70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
upper 80s.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
mid 80s.

$$

MTZ115-042230-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
151 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......78-84...71-77 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......12 degrees down...5 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........28-36 percent.
24 hr trend......12 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the northeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the northeast in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........500-2000 ft agl increasing to 7500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northeast in the afternoon.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Min Temperature.......52-58.
24 hr trend......1 degree down...6 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Max Humidity..........88-98 percent.
24 hr trend......46 percent up...39 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........7500 ft agl decreasing to 1000-1500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north
after midnight.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the
morning, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......20 percent.
* Max Temperature.......67-73...60-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......12 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........53-63 percent.
24 hr trend......22 percent up...29 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1500-2500 ft agl increasing to 3500-4500 ft
agl late in the morning.
* Transport Winds.......Southeast 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon.
* CWR...................40 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds 10 to
15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
lower 90s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the
mid 90s.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the
upper 80s.

$$

MTZ116-118-042230-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
151 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning, then showers and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Max Temperature.......70-79...61-71 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........39-49 percent.
24 hr trend......19 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southeast in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 2500-4000 ft
agl late in the morning.
* Transport Winds.......Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
* CWR...................40 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Min Temperature.......44-51.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........88-98 percent.
24 hr trend......32 percent up...39 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southwest after midnight.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Max Temperature.......64-74...55-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........42-52 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent up.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 3500-5000 ft
agl in the late morning and afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......West around 5 mph increasing to 15 to 20
mph in the afternoon.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid
40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 80.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
upper 80s.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
lower 80s.

$$

MTZ117-042230-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
151 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly sunny. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Max Temperature.......73-79...65-74 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........33-42 percent.
24 hr trend......26 percent up...12 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northeast in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the southeast in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl increasing to 3500-4500 ft
agl late in the morning, then increasing to 5000-6500 ft agl in
the afternoon decreasing to 3500 ft agl late in the afternoon.
* Transport Winds.......North 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Min Temperature.......46-53.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........90-100 percent.
24 hr trend......44 percent up...31 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2500 ft agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 5 to 10 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.SATURDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Chance Lightning.......50 percent.
* Max Temperature.......65-72...57-66 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........49-59 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent up...23 percent up higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* Mixing Height.........1000-2000 ft agl increasing to 5000-5500 ft
agl.
* Transport Winds.......West 5 to 10 mph.
* CWR...................30 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds
10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid
80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the
upper 80s.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.

$$

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559
FXUS65 KTFX 041136
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
536 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect below normal temperatures through Saturday, with
readings climbing near to slightly above normal on Sunday and
Monday before rising well above normal through the remainder of
next week.

- Showers and thunderstorms will lift northeast across Southwest
through North Central Montana through the day today, with
lingering showers and storms persisting into the day Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 305 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025/

- Meteorological Overview:

Shortwave trough over Northern California will lift northeast over
the Great Basin through the day today (Friday) and Northern Rockies
on Saturday. This shortwave trough will help to spread showers and
thunderstorms across much of Southwest through North Central Montana
through the first half of the upcoming weekend, with showers and
thunderstorms initially developing over Northeast Idaho/Southwest
Montana through the morning hours today before lifting northeast
across Central and North Central Montana through the evening hours
tonight. Wrap around showers and scattered thunderstorms will then
linger into the day on Saturday as the main mid- and upper level low
move over the Northern Rockies, with the best areal coverage of
precipitation focused across eastern portions of Central and North
Central Montana (i.e. east of a Havre, to Great Falls, to White
Sulphur Springs line). High temperatures today will cool to near
normal in wake of a Pacific front, with below to well below normal
temperatures expected on Saturday as the aforementioned upper level
low moves overhead.

Quasi-northwest flow develops in wake of the departing shortwave
through the remainder of the weekend and into day on Monday before
becoming predominately zonal through the remainder of the work week.
This will allow temperatures to moderate back to near to slightly
above normal through Monday, with readings climbing well above
normal from Tuesday onwards. Predominately dry conditons will
accompany the transition of northwest to zonal flow; however, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out over the higher
terrain on any given day. - Moldan

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Rainfall through Saturday night :

Showers and thunderstorms moving across Southwest through North
Central Montana will be capable of producing moderate to locally
heavy rainfall through the period, with the latest ECMWF EFIs
for QPF generally ranging from between 0.6 to 0.8 for a given
location over the next 48 hours. NBM probabilities for a wetting
rainfall (i.e. 0.10" or greater) are in excess of an 80% chance for
any given location within Southwest through North Central
Montana, with the probability for 0.5" or greater ranging from a
15-30% chance along and south of the I-90 corridor to a 30-60%
along and north of the I-90 corridor. Finally, NBM probabilities
continue to support between a 10-20% chance for rainfall amounts
to exceed 1" across predominately the Island Ranges of Central
Montana and along the Continental Divide where the most persistent
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to occur. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
04/12Z TAF Period

Primary aviation concern through 15z this morning will be LIFR/IFR
conditons at the KWYS terminal due to low VIS and/or CIGS.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail outside of this window
despite lowering CIGS and increasing precipitation coverage beyond
15-18z, with showers and thunderstorms lifting from southwest to
northeast beyond this timeframe. Biggest impact to terminal
operations from thunderstorm activity, which is generally expected
to occur between 04/18z to 05/06z, will be gusty and erratic
winds. Mountains will become increasingly obscured beyond 18z
this afternoon, especially those peaks at and above 9kft. -
Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 78 53 72 47 / 60 80 60 10
CTB 74 50 64 46 / 80 80 60 10
HLN 77 52 74 48 / 80 70 50 10
BZN 82 48 76 44 / 90 80 70 10
WYS 71 39 71 33 / 80 30 30 10
DLN 73 45 72 42 / 90 50 40 0
HVR 82 54 71 49 / 30 70 80 20
LWT 79 50 67 44 / 50 70 90 40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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