Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

649
FNUS55 KTFX 010816
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
216 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will trend warmer today, rising well above normal
by Friday and Saturday across the region as a sharp upper level
ridge builds in. Dry conditions are forecast through at least
Saturday morning, with just a low-end opportunity for showers or a
thunderstorm across western districts Saturday afternoon and
evening. Thermal belts will be a concern Friday and Saturday
mornings as the warmest air is around. A sharp Canadian cold front
then looks to move in Sunday, bringing a period of gusty
northerly winds to the region. Ahead of the cold front across
southern districts there will be enough instability for showers
and thunderstorms, a few of which could be on the stronger side.
Cooler conditions and chances for precipitation will linger behind
the cold front into Sunday night and into Monday. -AM

MTZ112-012230-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
216 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......61-66...53-59 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........21-26 percent...27-36 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......12 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......36-41.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........55-65 percent...46-56 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......8 percent down...18 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......72-78...61-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......12 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........13-18 percent...19-28 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......8 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 80.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cooler, windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds around
30 mph.
.MONDAY...Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds around 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper
60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower
70s.

$$

MTZ113-012230-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
216 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning.
* Max Temperature.......61-66...54-59 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........22-27 percent.
24 hr trend......17 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature.......33-40.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........55-65 percent...46-53 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......33 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the southeast after midnight.
Ridges.............Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......73-78...66-71 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........16-21 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Windy. Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds around
25 mph.
.MONDAY...Cooler, windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. North winds around
30 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper
60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s.

$$

MTZ114-012230-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
216 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......61-66...48-58 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........21-29 percent...31-41 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......8 percent down...29 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......35-41.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Max Humidity..........52-62 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent down...37 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......72-78...58-68 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees up...8 degrees up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........13-18 percent...20-30 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......8 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cooler. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of snow
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. North winds
20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Warmer. Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs around 70.

$$

MTZ115-012230-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
216 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning.
* Max Temperature.......59-66...51-57 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........22-28 percent.
24 hr trend......16 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature.......36-41.
24 hr trend......1 degree down...4 degrees up higher elevations.
* Max Humidity..........54-64 percent...48-55 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......20 percent down...48 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to
the south after midnight.
Ridges.............North winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......72-78...64-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........15-21 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 5 to 10 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows around 50.
Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 20 to 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Cooler, windy. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows
around 40. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds around 30 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s.

$$

MTZ116-012230-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
216 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......58-65...48-58 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........22-27 percent...28-38 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......9 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature.......34-39.
24 hr trend......5 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........54-64 percent...44-54 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......21 percent down...31 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to
the southwest after midnight.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......69-75...59-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......8 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........19-29 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 70.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cooler. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s.
West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s.
Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph.
.TUESDAY...Warmer. Mostly clear. Slight chance of rain and snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs around 60.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
mid 60s.

$$

MTZ117-012230-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
216 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers in
the morning.
* Max Temperature.......56-66...47-56 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees up...5 degrees up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........21-29 percent...28-38 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......12 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......33-41.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max Humidity..........52-62 percent.
24 hr trend......17 percent down...31 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
Ridges.............North winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......69-79...59-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........14-23 percent.
24 hr trend......14 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s. South winds around 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Cooler, windy. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
lower 50s. North winds around 30 mph.
.TUESDAY...Warmer. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 60s.

$$

MTZ118-012230-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
216 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......57-64...48-57 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......4 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........22-29 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature.......35-41.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........56-66 percent...45-55 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......14 percent down...30 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
Ridges.............East winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
south after midnight.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......69-76...60-69 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........15-20 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
70s. South winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
South winds around 25 mph.
.MONDAY...Cooler, windy. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
lower 50s. North winds around 30 mph.
.TUESDAY...Warmer. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs around 70.

$$

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632
FXUS65 KTFX 011106
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
506 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Trending warmer and drier today, with temperatures peaking Friday
and Saturday.

- Chances for precipitation re-enter the forecast late Saturday and
especially Sunday into Monday as temperatures trend cooler.

- Another drier period is favored toward the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 237 AM MDT Thu May 1 2025/

- Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging is building in across the region from the west.
The departing trough will linger enough to yield low-end chances for
showers across eastern areas through early this afternoon.
Otherwise the story over the next few days will be for warming
temperatures, which look to peak on Saturday as ridging amplifies
ahead of the next trough just off the Pacific coastline.

Sunday looks to be a transition day, as upper level ridging is
kicked eastward from a splitting trough moving onshore across the
west. The majority of the upper level support for precipitation with
this event looks to follow the upper level low which dives
southeastward toward southern CA and AZ and then stalls through at
least early next week. Nonetheless, at least some upper level
support for precipitation will cross the region Sunday into Monday.
A Canadian cold front will pass from north to south Sunday into
Sunday night associated with this system, knocking temperatures
back toward normal. Ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon there
looks to be enough instability for a few stronger thunderstorms
across Central and Southwest Montana. Forecast soundings feature
relatively deep inverted-Vs, suggesting wind as the primary
threat. More aggressive guidance features mucape in excess of
1,000 j/kg, which would also suggest at least a low-end hail
threat as well. Exact location of this threat will depend on just
how quickly the cold front progresses south on Sunday, which
remains unclear at this point.

Along and behind the cold front there will be a period of more
stratiform type precipitation, with upslope enhanced precipitation
in northerly upslope areas. Snow levels will drop quickly behind
this front, though snow largely looks to stay confined to mountains.
Also worth mentioning is that the cold front looks to be on the
stronger side from a wind perspective. There remains some
discrepancies between guidance as to where this stronger corridor of
wind will be, however.

Uncertainties grow heading into Monday, mostly related to timing how
quickly the upper level wave and associated precipitation and cloud
cover exit eastward. Areas further south have the best chance to see
lingering precipitation into Monday afternoon, while northern areas
look to trend drier and warmer a touch quicker at this point.

The aforementioned closed upper low across the southwest CONUS
continues to linger into the middle of next week as another upper
level low stuck over the central/eastern CONUS holds up the
progression of the upper pattern. Ensembles largely favor a flavor
of zonal flow across the Northern Rockies over this timeframe,
which largely looks to keep the region dry, with near to slightly
above average temperatures. -AM

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Confidence is high in a period of warmer and drier conditions
developing. The only uncertainty through Saturday is largely related
to the magnitude of temperature anomalies. The vast majority of the
plains has a greater than 90% chance for highs above 80F Saturday.

Although there is a bit of uncertainty in the magnitude of the cold
front gusts Sunday into Sunday night, there is good confidence
for a lower bound max wind gust. At this point there is a greater
than 50% chance for gusts of 35 mph or greater behind the cold
front, with many areas on the plains having a greater than 70%
chance for this magnitude.

As for precipitation with the Sunday into Monday system, the only
areas with a greater than 50% chance for a quarter of an inch of
precipitation are in or immediately adjacent to the mountains,
otherwise that chance is below 50%. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
01/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across most of the North Central
through Southwest Montana terminals over the next 24 hours, with
the exception of the KWYS terminal where there remains a 20%
chance for VIS/CIGS reductions to LIFR due to shallow fog
development through 16z this morning. Isolated to scattered rain
showers over the plains of Central and North Central Montana have
been stubborn to dissipate overnight and will continue to move
southeast through 15-18z Thursday before decreasing in areal
coverage. Main impact from any shower will be brief reductions in
CIGS to generally 5-6kft at the KGTF and KLWT terminals, but with
precipitation chances less than 30% at these terminals I have
refrained from using a PROB30 group for rain. Periods of mountain
obscuration are likely due to scattered to broken mid- level
cloud cover through the afternoon hours. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 65 40 78 42 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 65 36 77 40 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 68 40 79 46 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 62 33 74 39 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 57 23 65 26 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 61 35 73 39 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 67 36 78 41 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 59 35 72 44 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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