Heavy to excessive rainfall could lead to flash flooding over portions of east Texas into southern Mississippi through Wednesday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana Wednesday. Large hail will be the primary threat, with the greatest risk across south Texas. Read More >
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533 FXUS66 KMTR 062321 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 421 PM PDT Tue May 6 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1123 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025 Overall the weather is pretty quiet. There will be a modest warming trend late week before a cold front brings gusty winds and a significant cooling trend from Sunday-Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1123 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025 A southerly surge has brought the marine layer back to the coast and the Ft. Ord profiler is measuring the depth around 2,000 feet. As these winds are south-southeasterly, the San Francisco Peninsula was mostly spared from the stratus this morning. Even if you managed to stay out of the clouds, temperatures are much colder for virtually everybody today. The average 24 hour change is around -7F. While the SFO-WMC gradient has relaxed from -6.7 to -3.6 mb over the last 24 hours, there are still some lingering offshore winds in northern Napa County. Otherwise the NE winds have subsided as the 500 mb ridge becomes the dominant feature. According to high resolution guidance, the southerly surge will likely persist through Wednesday morning before more typical NW winds return. Expect more extensive stratus coverage tomorrow morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1123 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025 As the ridge builds a warming trend will kick off from Wednesday through Friday. There is high confidence that the 850 mb temperature is expected to exceed 17C by Friday, which is the 90th percentile for this time of year. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s for many inland areas, with upper 60s to low 70s along most of the coast. The Southern Salinas Valley looks like the warmest spot with King City temperatures in the 90s. Santa Cruz looks like the warmest coastal location with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s due to terrain driven adiabatic warming. There is still some uncertainty with how deep the following trough or cut-off low will be, but it looks likely that the warming trend will reverse sharply starting Sunday. Broadly speaking, our current forecast brings inland temperatures from 10 degrees above normal to 15 below normal from Saturday - Monday. The associated cold front also brings a slight chance for light rain and some gusty winds to start next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 421 PM PDT Tue May 6 2025 Generally VFR throughout the region with MVFR stratus confined to the immediate coast. Breezy and somewhat gusty onshore flow prevails through the evening hours, as MVFR-IFR stratus fills the coastal valleys overnight. Stratus mixes out late Wednesday morning with the immediate coast remaining socked in through the 24-hour TAF period, with breezy onshore flow resuming in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR into the early overnight hours, with MVFR stratus over the terminal after midnight through late Wednesday morning. Breezy westerly flow will continue into the evening with light and variable winds overnight before the onshore flow resumes Wednesday afternoon. Clouds return to the terminal area Wednesday evening, but confidence is low to moderate for a ceiling at the terminal before the end of the TAF period. OAK has a slightly higher confidence for ceilings late Wednesday evening before the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach... Confidence is low in stratus impacts on Wednesday evening before the end of the TAF period. Otherwise similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the evening hours, with MVFR- IFR stratus developing through the overnight hours. Breezy onshore flow continues into the evening with light drainage winds overnight. High confidence that SNS clears out, and moderate confidence that MRY scatters out, late Wednesday morning with breezy onshore winds developing in the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 421 PM PDT Tue May 6 2025 Moderate to fresh northwest winds will build back in over the northern outer waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes this afternoon and evening before diminishing early tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, southerly winds are expected to shift back to the northwest by late this evening before winds diminish, becoming moderate across the waters. Seas have subsided with moderate seas to continue through the end of the forecast period. Northerly winds strengthen late this week with widespread fresh to strong gusts expected through the end of the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...DialH MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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