Extreme heat will continue across the Pacific Northwest into midweek before finally waning. Hot temperatures, low relative humidity, gusty winds, and isolated dry thunderstorms will bring critical fire weather into Tuesday. A refreshingly cool air mass has settled into much of the eastern two-thirds of the Rockies through the week. Read More >
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142 FXUS66 KMTR 251738 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1038 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 322 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - Low, but non-zero chance of elevated convection today and Tuesday - Gradual cooling through the work week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 322 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 (Today and tonight) Today begins a gradual cooling trend that will persist through the work week. The first signs of weak upper level offshore troughing will set in today. The most interesting portion of the forecast both today and Tuesday will be the low probability of elevated thunderstorms. There are a number of limiting factors, most importantly, a lack of forcing to help initiate convection. We will see storms to our east along the Sierra where strong diurnal heating and orographic lift combine to tap into the mid-level moisture. Mid- level flow across the Bay Area and Central Coast is anemic at best and unorganized with a short window of weak (<10-15kts) divergent flow across southern Monterey and San Benito County later this afternoon and early evening. We may see some signs of the upper level moisture and instability in the form of altocumulus castellanos accas clouds. However low the chances for elevated storms may be, they will disappear with the setting sun. The not unusually stable conditions at the surface with onshore flow will result in a healthy marine layer (~1200-1500ft) push this evening into early Tuesday morning. Lows will be in the mid-50 to low 60s for coastal and low lying areas. However, areas above the marine layer amid the thermal belts will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 322 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 (Tuesday through Sunday) Weak offshore troughing will persist through the extended forecast providing steady onshore flow, a healthy marine layer, and a return to cooler than normal temperatures across most of our area. There is a signal for some potentially wetting rainfall by the end of next weekend into the beginning of next week in both deterministic and ensemble guidance, however the synoptic pattern continues to appear unorganized with relatively weak forcing to have any confidence in how that would eventually materialize with any confidence. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 IFR/MVFR cigs mixing out well across the SF Bay Area this morning. Anticipating good mixing out to VFR across most terminals with the exception of the immediate coast, where IFR/MVFR cigs are expected through much of the day. No major issue with winds as typical diurnal onshore flow persists. Did bump up the stratus return time a couple of hours for Bay Area terminals, but VFR conditions may linger longer into the night for North Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Great mixing this morning leading to VFR conditions invof KSFO. High confidence in VFR through the day today with breezy NW winds through the San Bruno gap this afternoon. Moderate-to-high confidence in return time of IFR/MVFR cigs late tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Expecting terminals more near the coast to remain socked in for much of the day today with perhaps a few hours of VFR this afternoon. Deep marine layer and persistent onshore flow leads to high confidence in stratus coverage and return times this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 507 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A gentle to moderate breeze and moderate seas will prevail across the majority of the coastal waters through late this week. Locally moderate to fresh gusts and rough seas are expected across the far northern outer waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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