In Alaska, a powerful storm will bring dangerous seas, blizzard conditions, strong winds and bitterly cold across the state through mid-week. Meanwhile, Pacific storm will move inland across California with lower elevation rain and accumulating mountain snow; Strong winds will affect the central Great Basin. A clipper system to bring snow and gusty winds for the Northeast corridor into Wednesday. Read More >
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343 FXUS66 KMTR 101930 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1130 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 211 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 - Widespread rain arrives to the region later today with showers persisting through Thursday morning. - Strong south winds this afternoon into Wednesday morning with gusts of 40-50 mph along the Big Sur coast and higher terrain in Monterey and San Benito Counties. - General risk of thunderstorms this afternoon through Wednesday with chances for lightning, localized gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain. - Break in rain chances late Thursday into Friday before a wetter pattern returns Saturday into the early part of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 Surface low pressure is still about 350 miles west of Santa Cruz this morning with the initial warm frontal rain bands about 130 offshore and slowly moving eastward. GLM lightning data has shown a few flashes near the center of the low earlier this morning. Main short term concern will be increasing southerly winds ahead of the approaching low. Gale Warnings are posted for the southern coastal waters with Wind Advisories going into effect by 4 pm for Monterey and San Benito counties. Current forecast trajectory of the surface low should keep winds lighter for the greater Bay Area. Rain to arrive along the coast by mid afternoon and then spreading over the Bay Area for the evening commute hours. Strong southeast winds coming out of the valleys due to the approaching low will produce strong rain shadowing for most of the valleys east of the coastal ranges. Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia ranges should see the highest rainfall totals but even there the southerly component of the wind is less ideal than normal through tonight. Will continue to monitor thunderstorm threat which will mainly be driven by steep lapse rates aloft with surface heating missing. Given we`ve already seen some GLM flashes the current forecast of slight chance thunder looks on track. Small hail and lightning with brief heavy downpours should be the main threat. Weds looks cool and showery with the upper low stalling just offshore. Daytime highs will be much colder with 50s in the valleys and cool 40s in the hills as showers will drag down much colder air aloft with 700 mb temps around -6 celsius. Showers with small hail will be hazardous on roadways. Showers should end by Thursday morning with dry conditions Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Next storm arrives Sunday with the Euro keeping it farther offshore with most rain near the coast while the gfs brings the main rainbands farther inland. Either way a cold core system and not an AR type event, so this will bring beneficial rains with no main stem flooding concerns at this time. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 211 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 (Today through Thursday) Satellite imagery shows mid- to high-level clouds across the region. Low temperatures this morning will drop into the upper 30s to middle 40s in the inland valleys, with lows in the middle 40s to upper 50s along the coast and the bays. High temperatures today range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the coast and the valleys, and the upper 40s to middle 50s in the higher elevations. Light winds will continue for the rest of the overnight period, with the winds increasing through the morning in advance of an incoming low pressure system. As of 1 AM today, a low pressure system was centered around 34N 130W, or around 500 miles to the west-southwest of San Francisco. This low pressure system is expected to approach the central California coast through the day, bringing the first substantial chances for rain in over a month, strong winds, and chances for thunderstorms. That part is certain. What makes the forecast challenging is the fact that with the low coming so close to the Bay Area and Central Coast, where exactly the low tracks later today, and whatever upper level support the low can generate, can greatly impact the magnitude of the impacts from the system. To give an example of the challenges involved, the HRRR model brings the low rather close to Point Reyes by 4 AM Wednesday morning, with an lower level jet supporting strong gusts across the SF Bay Area and parts of Monterey Bay, while the NAM model brings the low a fair distance away from Pigeon Point in southern San Mateo County by 4 AM Wednesday morning, cutting out the upper level support and producing less intense gusts across the Bay Area. Needless to say, this makes for a lower confidence forecast than typical for something arriving within the day or so, and a complex situation not only for the actual forecast, but in messaging the potential impacts. What follows is a element-by-element treatment of the impactful weather across the region, arranged in a roughly decreasing order of confidence. As previously mentioned, the low pressure system will bring the first substantial rainfall to the region in over a month, with the rainfall starting sometime this afternoon or evening across the region. The southerly flow associated with the incoming system will bring in a long, thin plume of moisture that does come in from the subtropical waters near Hawaii, but is expected to quickly push through the area and progress down the coast into southern California. The setup of the low will favor the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia ranges, where rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected through Thursday morning. This setup also tends to enhance the rain shadow impacts commonly seen in the Livermore, San Jose, and Salinas Valley regions, and will also occur in the valleys of Sonoma County courtesy of the orientation of the incoming flow. Those areas could see around half an inch of rain, give or take a tenth, for the same time period. For the rest of the Bay Area and the immediate Monterey Bay region, rain totals will hover around an inch, maybe up to an inch and a half in the higher elevations. For context to all of this, Downtown San Francisco reported 2.65 inches of rain in the first 7 days of 2026, but has since recorded 0.15 inches since January 8. The low pressure system is also expected to bring strong winds to the region, although how impactful those will be is a little uncertain due to the aforementioned differences in how the models are treating the track of the low and any upper level support. The default National Blend of Models is running closer to the lower end of the model envelope, so I have blended in the HRRR to bump up the expected wind speeds and gusts across the region. A Wind Advisory has been issued across Monterey and San Benito counties for 4 PM today through 4 AM Wednesday morning, due to southerly wind gusts up to 40-50 mph, with the highest gusts expected along the Big Sur Coast and the ridgelines across the Santa Lucias and the interior mountains, but even within the northern Salinas Valley wind gusts up to 40-45 mph are in the current forecast. The SF Bay Area and Santa Cruz County are the areas with the most uncertainty as of this time. The current forecast brings widespread wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across the region with stronger gusts up to 40 mph along the coast and at the ridgelines. This is very much subject to change depending on the track of the low and the evolution of any upper level support that accompanies it. Finally, there is a slight chance of thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon into Wednesday associated with the low pressure system. This is possibly the most uncertain part of the forecast. On one hand, lapse rates are steep across the region, and K Index values of 30-32 degrees C support the idea of scattered thunderstorms being possible. On the other hand, widespread cloud cover will tend to limit solar heating, limiting the chances for lift, which is one of the ingredients that are necessary for thunderstorms to form. If thunderstorms do form, lightning, localized strong gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and small hail are the main risks. By Wednesday, the low will weaken and meander somewhere off the Bay Area coastline, with cold core showers continuing through the day. Showers linger into Thursday morning, and begin to diminish around midday into the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 211 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 (Thursday night through Monday) Behind the low pressure system, upper level ridging will develop late Thursday into Friday, bringing us a drier spell and slightly warmer temperatures to end the work week. An upper level trough returns to the West Coast beginning on Saturday, marking the return of a wetter pattern to the region. As the previous forecaster noted, weaker surface features will result in less impactful weather and a greater chance of beneficial light to moderate rainfall across the region. The upper level trough continues to deepen for the early part of next week, causing the cool and wet pattern to persist for the Bay Area and Central Coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 A low pressure is approaching the coast and has already pushed waves of inconsistent virga and localized rain through the area with mostly high-level clouds. As the low continues to move into the coast, expect strong southerly winds for the Monterey Bay, moderate to breezy south winds for much of the Bay Area, and moderate easterly winds for the North Bay. Rain chances increase into the late afternoon, but rain rates will be low. Rain rates increase into the night causing some reductions in visibilities. Cloud cover will also fall into the night, leading to increased mid-level clouds and a few areas of MVFR CIGs. Behind the initial wave of more moderate rain, chances for thunderstorms increase over the marine environment, but only offer slight chances overland. Rain chances last beyond the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Southeast winds last through the TAF period and increase as the low pressure approaches. Expect moderate winds and high clouds into the afternoon with light showers arriving into the late afternoon. Winds turn slightly more easterly into the evening and become breezier while rain rates become more moderate, affecting visibilities. Showers become spottier into the night, but chances for storms in between showers will be possible. Another round of more moderate rainfall is expected in the late night, but with some short breaks between showers possible. More consistent moderate rains arrive late Wednesday morning with breezy to gusty southerly winds. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Southeast winds are increasing across the area with SNS seeing around 40 kt gusts. MRY will become breezy to gusty in the late afternoon as light showers move through the area. Light to moderate rains pass through the area into the evening and early night with moments of MVFR CIGs affecting the terminals. These rains and CIGs exit into the early night, with some lingering shower activity as well as storm chances. While these storm chances will be stronger over the marine environment, chances for storms to come onshore increase through the evening and into the night. More consistent rains arrive in the late night with winds reducing slightly. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1128 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 A low pressure is pushing into the region. Southerly winds will increase ahead of low pressure with gale force gusts possible south of Pigeon Point this afternoon through Wednesday morning, with the highest confidence between Point Sur and Point Piedras Blancas. This system will bring along with periods of rain as well as chances for thunderstorms Tuesday evening through early Thursday. Swells will stay mostly moderate in the mid week, but increase into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ516>518-528-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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