A couple of frontal boundaries will move east and south from the Plains to the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines. These boundaries will focus showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with scattered severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains and across the Gulf Coast states. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur, which may be welcome news across drought areas. Meanwhile, heat spreads westward. Read More >
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333 FXUS66 KMTR 100736 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1236 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026 - Warming and drying trend will continue through early in the week with afternoon temperatures peaking on Monday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the interior on Monday - Gradual cooling trend and potential unsettled weather from midweek through late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026 (Today through Monday) Let`s step back and take a look at the interesting longwave pattern over the CONUS - ridge of high pressure covers CA which is bookended by deep troughs on either side with one near the Great Lakes and the other near Gulf of AK. The pattern will hold in the near term, but will shift with a pattern change on the horizon, literally. So what does this set up mean for the Bay Area? A ridge of high pressure in May usually brings dry and mild conditions and Sunday is no exception. However, it`s the details that matter. Overnight satellite imagery shows solid stratus along the coast working its way inland. The marine layer will likely top out 900-1200 feet this morning and will be the spoiler for Max T potential. Would not be surprised one bit if the marine layer was able to squeeze out some drizzle along the coast. Model guidance has struggled the last few days regarding Max T and the marine layer influence...simply put the forecast was too warm. As such, trended temperatures downward from the NBM over inland valleys or areas that have a pronounced marine layer influence this afternoon. Went colder by 3-5 degs, but worried it wasn`t under cut enough. That being said, do expect the marine layer clouds to erode back to the coast by this afternoon with inland sunshine and coastal clouds. Regardless, if you have outdoor activities to celebrate Mother`s Day it will be pleasant with inland highs in the 70s and 80s and cooler at the coast in the 60s - bring a jacket. Could also be a tad breezy this afternoon with the temp difference from the coast to interior. Sfc pressure gradients remain onshore again, but are forecast to be weaker than Saturday where they peaked at 4.2 mb. Sunday night through Monday - the center of the upper ridge begins to shift toward the Desert SW while the upstream trough deepens and inches toward the West Coast. Despite the shift, Monday is still on track to be the warmest day of the forecast. 850 mb temps peak at 20-22C. Mixing those temps to the surface under ideal conditions would bring toasty temps. However, we still have some onshore flow and lingering marine layer. As such, max temps will be tempered near the coast and bays, 60s to lower 80s. Far interior locations will be in the 90s leading to some Moderate HeatRisk. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) The change in the longwave pattern begins to unfold Monday night into Tuesday. The upper level ridge is being replaced by a robust and anomalously deep upper low for mid May. Temperatures begin to drop in response to lower 500 mb heights and cooler 850 mb temps, but still above normal. By Wednesday near normal temperatures return thanks to the cut-off low over the region. Confidence fades on the details of the exact placement of the cut-off low...cluster analysis is split with some favoring more zonal flow and others farther south with a deeper low. Regardless of exact placement, it`s clear that temps drop and at least some drizzle is likely. A few members even show light showers Wednesday afternoon/evening (tstorms to the N). Zonal flow returns for the second half of the work week leading to rebounding temperatures and drier conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026 Tonight, stratus is a bit more expansive, perhaps somewhere between 500-1000ft already, with IFR conditions along the coast and at KSFO already and MVFR cigs near KOAK. Expect the stratus to continue to move inland and deepen some, impacting North Bay terminals after midnight and into tomorrow morning. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected and should clear out mid to late morning. For the interior East Bay terminals, the stratus deck will move through overnight resulting in MVFR ceilings until Sunday morning. IFR ceilings persist at HAF through the night with moderate NW winds. By mid-day Sunday, ceilings will lift through the afternoon. The stratus deck is set to return again in the evening. The high-level clouds that are expected Sunday afternoon should also limit the development of the stratus deck for the interior East and North Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Breezy westerly winds with gusts of 18-22kt will be lasting through 8Z. Stratus has locked in around the Bay, with cigs ranging from IFR to MVFR. Confidence is high that we will remain locked in with stratus tonight; however, there is some uncertainty with how long we will be stuck with IFR cigs. Opted to lean more pessimistic based on satellite imagery, webcams, and the KSFO METAR so far. We could break to MVFR cigs for a period on Sunday morning, before VFR conditions return by mid to late morning. Breezy westerly winds looks to be on tap again for Sunday, with gusts to 22KT from 20-03Z. High clouds move in tomorrow afternoon and evening. This may limit stratus development Sunday evening into Monday morning. Opted to hint at a later arrival, but this may need to be adjusted. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Widespread IFR ceilings are forecast through the night which will scatter out by late morning Sunday. MRY will experience another return of MVFR stratus Sunday evening. Moderate onshore winds persist through the first half of the TAF period with a slight ease overnight before picking up again late Sunday morning. High-level clouds will also roll in Sunday afternoon, limiting the extent and depth of the marine layer into the Salinas valley.&& .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 906 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026 Moderate seas and fresh to strong northwest breezes with occasional near gale force gusts will continue through most of Sunday. Locally gusty conditions are likely across the San Pablo and San Francisco Bays where terrain promotes wind funneling. Winds gradually ease starting late Sunday with a gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze expected early to mid week. Breezy conditions return to the inner waters late week and seas build mid to late week. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 906 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026 Moderate seas and fresh to strong northwest breezes with occasional near gale force gusts will continue through most of Sunday. Locally gusty conditions are likely across the San Pablo and San Francisco Bays where terrain promotes wind funneling. Winds gradually ease starting late Sunday with a gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze expected early to mid week. Breezy conditions return to the inner waters late week and seas build mid to late week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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