Gusty winds and low relative humidity will bring critical fire weather to the central and southern High Plains Wednesday. Two Pacific storms will continue impacting the mountains of the western U.S. into Thursday with gusty winds and heavy snow. Heavy snow and gusty winds will continue to impact the northern Plains into the central Great Lakes Wednesday. Read More >
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871 FXUS66 KMTR 180655 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1055 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 ...New CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 327 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 - High elevation snow continues through the week with the highest snow accumulations over the Central Coast - The combination of cold overnight lows and damp conditions will make it feel even colder impacting people without adequate shelter - Additional storms will bring windy conditions back to the region Thursday - Active weather continues with additional chances for rain into next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 The cold front associated with the present system has pushed its way south of Monterey and San Benito Counties. Behind the front, scattered to widespread showers, some of them rather intense, persist across the Bay Area and Central Coast. There have even been several reports of small hail across the Bay Area from the strongest cells. Overnight, expect a gradual diminishing of the shower activity into Wednesday with another well-organized band of rain coming through Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 157 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Another active weather day around the Bay Area and Central Coast thanks to a robust cold front passing through the region. Latest surface analysis puts the cold front squarely in SF Bay/S Bay region heading to the Central Coast. The most active weather is ahead and along the front with heavy rain, gusty winds, embedded thunderstorms, and gusty winds. As such, we`re seeing reports of minor flooding, small hail, and additional landslides/rocks/mud on roads. We had a few reports of minor wind damage with gusts up to 60 mph. Widespread showers and rain persist even behind the front. Simply put, if you have to travel this afternoon/evening for a commute be heads up as weather impacts will likely linger. We`ve also received lots of question about snow this afternoon. Today has been finicky to say the least with snow level fluctuations. Lower snow levels earlier in the day have drifted higher and cams even showed a switch over at times to rain or rain/snow mix. This will eat into snow totals for sure. Regardless, still expecting accumulating snow over the highest peaks and left current Winter Weather Adv as is. For the rest of tonight: The cold front will continue to march slowly S and E. Behind the front we`ll still hold onto scattered showers and high elevation snow showers. Winds will be strongest this evening then slowly ease overnight. The bigger impact for tonight will be the temperatures. The airmass is cold and any bit of clearing will allow for the cold airmass to be realized. Given the damp conditions the cold temperatures will feel even colder, especially those without adequate shelter. As such, expanded the cold weather advisory and extreme cold warnings for the Santa Clara Hills, Santa Cruz Mts, and Santa Clara Valley. Black ice could also be an issue in the cold spots that received rain today given temps flirting around freezing. For Wednesday: a cold start to the day. A broad upper trough remains over the region with embedded shortwaves and another upper low therefore lingering showers will remain. Given the colder air aloft cannot rule out thunder. SPC has most of the forecast area in a general mention of thunder. Any developed storm could produce small hail too. Snow levels will be lower tomorrow than today, but the amount of precip will be in question. Snow levels could be as low as 1500 feet over the N Bay and 2500 feet Central Coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 157 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) Early Wednesday night there could be a lull in precip as one upper low exits and another system quickly approaches from the W and NW. One bigger question for Wednesday night will be how cold does it get? There will be some thinning of clouds, but they quickly fill back in. That will likely limit the amount of cool. Therefore, conf wasn`t high enough to cont the Cold Weather Adv or Extreme Cold Warnings. Thursday/Friday: Another active weather day with another round of rain (moderate to heavy at times), chance for thunder/hail, gusty winds, and high elevation snow. No major change from previous rainfall projections: 0.5-1.0" most areas and up to 2-2.5" coastal mts. Wind will not be strong enough for a wind advisory, but still gusts of 20-40 mph and locally to 50 mph seems plausible. As for snow, little bit of a roller coaster with the snow levels rising ahead of the low pressure Thursday. Still thinking accumulating snow over most high peaks in the region. May need to issue additional Winter Wx Adv. Precip tapers off heading into Friday with some clearing as well. Friday morning will likely be the coldest day of the bunch with another round of cold weather products likely. Interesting longwave pattern developing over the weekend as persistent upper trough remains over the region. In the trough a series of upper lows develop and then pivot around each other off the PacNW coast. The associated cold front with this system will bring additional rain back to the region. This will be a warmer system with much higher snow levels too. Last but not least. A potential influx of high PWAT air early next week. Still far out, but some AR guidance suggests a lower end AR. This could have bigger impacts given how much precip we`ve been piling up with this week`s systems. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 Widespread light rain is affecting the area, but will reduce into the night. Expect mostly mid-level clouds with inconsistent MVFR CIGS across the area. Winds stay westerly into the evening but some areas look to turn more northerly overnight as winds reduce. Shower activity increases into Wednesday morning with more of a focus along the coast. Storm chances will build over the marine environment, with slight chances for storms moving inland through the first half of Wednesday. Rain chances reduce again into Wednesday afternoon, but build again that night. Vicinity of SFO...Shower activity continues to reduce, but rain chances linger with mostly mid-level clouds. Winds turn Northwest overnight and remain breezy. Rain chances increase into early Wednesday morning as winds turn westerly. Expect rain to reduce for Wednesday afternoon, but will increase again that evening as winds turn more southerly. A stronger band of rain arrives into Wednesday night, with winds turning west and becoming gustier as it moves through. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Showers last into the late night with breezy to gusty west winds. Rain chances reduce into the late night as winds reduce. Moderate westerly winds remain at MRY through the night, while SNS goes Southeasterly into the late night. Widespread rains return in the early morning, but reduce into Wednesday afternoon as winds turn west to northwest across the area. Winds turn southerly into the evening with shower activity increasing. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 901 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 Expect scattered showers and slight chances for to storms continue to move through the waters. Breezy to gusty westerly winds continue across the waters with gale force winds in the southern waters lasting through the light. Winds weaken into early Thursday but quickly become strong again with gale force gusts returning. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Thunderstorm chances linger into the mid week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 The following are the record low temperatures for the long term sites for Friday, Feb 20th. Location Record Low Santa Rosa 26 in 1913 Kentfield 27 in 1913 Napa 27 in 2018 Richmond 35 in 1990 Livermore 27 in 2018 San Francisco 38 in 1897 SFO Airport 36 in 2018 Redwood City 30 in 1933 Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018 Oakland Museum 36 in 2011 San Jose 30 in 1897 Salinas Airport 28 in 1953 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ504-506- 512-513-516. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ514-517- 518. Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ514-517-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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