The Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley continue with warm and dry conditions. Any fires that initiate could spread quickly. The warm temperatures will expand across the Southern Plains into the Southwest where numerous records are expected through the weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front will move southward across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region where some snow will develop this weekend. Read More >
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175 FXUS66 KMTR 280120 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 520 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Well above normal temperatures through Saturday - Slight cooling trend with 20% rain chances on Sunday - Above normal warmth next week with increased chances for bursts of offshore flow && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 (This afternoon through Saturday) Very warm conditions continue this afternoon across the area as offshore flow continues to envelop the Bay Area and Central Coast. Despite increasing MaxT for today in a prior update, temperatures continue to overachieve. The sky cover forecast has certainly been challenging over the last 1-2 days and is likely a big reason for higher-than-expected MaxTs. Given the current satellite presentation, it seems prudent to adjust these grids downward to support upward adjustments in MaxT for the rest of this afternoon and into tomorrow. The fog threat seems limited tonight courtesy of the PBL mixing that`s helping to keep things on the warmer side. Saturday should see more in the way of cloud cover as shortwave ridging is replaced with larger scale troughing. In fact, there may be a few sprinkles across the North Bay during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday morning, but overall the potential for measurable rainfall is greater on Sunday. Saturday will feature another warm day. While the current forecast advertises widespread 70 and 80 degree weather, there`s some potential for things to get warmer than advertised if skies remain more clear through peak heating. The spread is a little less across the North Bay where the initial influx of cloudier conditions is expected earlier in the day, along with an opportunity for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Forecast soundings on Saturday (and on Sunday) do indicate the potential for some mid-level instability, however, the synoptic scale ascent is displaced to the north of our region. For now, we`ll advertise a 15-20% PoP for the North Bay late Saturday and into Sunday with a 10% chance for thunderstorms during the same time period. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) As noted above, rain chances re-enter the forecast late Saturday and into Sunday. These rain chances persist as late as the pre- dawn hours on Monday. It is unlikely for continuous rain to fall and most areas will remain rain-free. The best chance for sprinkles/very light rain reside across the North Bay and along the immediate coastline. Hi-res NWP (Rapid Refresh Forecast System) do indicate this potential well and we`ll hold onto a 20 PoP for parts of the area. Higher end rainfall scenarios paint a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall as far south as the Central Coast by Monday morning. At this time, the deterministic NBM seems reasonable with rain amounts largely around a hundredth. The noticeable change on Sunday will be the temperature drop. At this time, we`re anticipating that highs on Sunday will only be in the 60s to low 70s as cloud cover and modest cold air advection take shape. The main weather theme next week will be the opportunity for increased breezes, and a times, flow will be offshore. As the upper air pattern turns more northwesterly aloft, this should support shortwave troughs through the Sierra and into portions of the Great Basin. In the wake of these features, surface high pressure will build to the northeast, strengthening the predominantly MSLP gradient. 925mb flow does increase with speeds averaging 30 to 40 knots and the synoptic scale pattern does suggest that winds will at least momentarily turn more offshore. Elevated winds are frequently more probable at the higher terrain and across NW to SE oriented passes/gaps, especially in these upper air pattern. For now, edits were confined to these areas as confidence is greatest in the strongest winds here. Wind gusts here may reside closer to 40 knots (45 mph) Wednesday through Friday of next week. While recent rainfall has supported a modest green up, energy release components (ERC`s) are trending upward across our area. At this time, it`s unlikely that ERC values will exceed critical thresholds for official fire weather products, but areas of dormant/dead vegetation will have the potential to burn, especially if there`s favorable alignment of terrain and wind. We`ll continue to monitor and message this potential through the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 Widespread VFR lasts into the night with high clouds continuing to build. Light to moderate winds become lighter into the night with directions at most sites going variable. Pockets of inconsistent mist will be possible at STS, but look to erode into the late morning, leading to widespread VFR. Winds build slightly into Saturday afternoon, but become weak again that evening and night. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light to moderate north winds into the night before winds become light and variable. West winds build again into Saturday afternoon and last well into that night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds become light into the night. Southeast winds build for SNS into the early morning, but switch to northwest winds Saturday afternoon while MRY goes more westerly.&& .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 520 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 Light to moderate northerly winds continue across the waters. Locally moderate to fresh gusts continue through Friday across the southern coastal waters. Drizzle is possible across the northernmost coastal waters this weekend into early next week and a five percent chance of thunderstorms on Saturday. Low to moderate seas continue into next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1113 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for Friday, Feb 27th and Saturday, Feb 28th. Location Feb 27th Record High Feb 28th Record High Santa Rosa 90 in 1923 93 in 1923 San Rafael 74 in 1954 78 in 2025 Kentfield 79 in 1932, 1923 78 in 1929, 1923 Napa 80 in 1932 81 in 1929 Richmond 78 in 2020 77 in 1986 Livermore 79 in 1932 82 in 2022 San Francisco 78 in 2002, 1992, 1986 76 in 1992, 1986 SFO Airport 76 in 2020 73 in 1959 Redwood City 79 in 2025, 1932 77 in 2025 Half Moon Bay 78 in 1986 74 in 1954 Oakland Museum 78 in 2002 75 in 2025 San Jose 79 in 2020, 1992, 1932 77 in 2025, 1926 Salinas Airport 84 in 2025 81 in 2022 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bain LONG TERM....Bain AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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