Dangerous, record-breaking heat will continue across most of the central and eastern U.S through Friday then focusing on the eastern U.S. through the Independence Day weekend. Peak heat indices of up to 115 degrees are possible. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the southern Appalachians today. Read More >
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971 FXUS66 KMTR 022017 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 117 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 110 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 - Seasonable conditions through Saturday, with a marine layer keeping temperatures near normal, HeatRisk in the Minor category, and clouds each night/morning retreating to the coast each day. - A slight cooldown early next week, with otherwise similar conditions. - Warmer temperatures by the middle of next week with a low potential for Moderate HeatRisk. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1257 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Aside from a few high clouds, skies will be mostly clear through early this evening across the area, except along the coast where stratus will persist. The marine layer will remain intact tonight with little change from last night. Light onshore flow will allow stratus to fill back in across the valleys once again overnight into Friday morning. The upper level trough that has been in place over the last few days will start to weaken on Friday. This will allow temperatures inland to climb 3 to 6 degrees from today as 500 mb heights rise and temperatures warm aloft. Along the coast, the marine layer and a light onshore breeze will keep temperatures nearly constant from today. Highs along the coast will be in the upper 50s to 60s, 60s to 70s along the SF Bay shoreline and coastal valleys, and 80s to around 90 in the interior. These temperatures will result in Minor HeatRisk in most areas. Clouds will clear back to the coast by early afternoon, where they will linger. Onshore winds will gust 15 to 25 mph, locally up to 30 mph in gaps/passes. Low clouds will then fill back in through the valleys Friday night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1257 PM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) An upper level ridge will build to the east on Saturday, bringing another degree or two of warming from Friday. Overall, conditions will be typical of early July. The marine layer will remain in place, bringing cloudy conditions in the morning with clearing back to the coast in the afternoon. Skies away from the coast will be mostly sunny with an onshore breeze in the afternoon and evening, gusting to around 15 to 25 mph. Stratus will begin its inland advance in the evening. Another upper level trough will move onto the coast Sunday through Tuesday. This will reverse the warming trend and bring a few degrees of cooling, placing temperatures slightly below normal. Otherwise, the day-to-day trend will be very similar to previous days. The marine layer will provide low clouds each night and morning, clearing back to the coast each day. Onshore winds will remain breezy. By midweek, ensembles are in agreement about the trough weakening, allowing temperatures to warm. The degree of warming is uncertain, but favors a few degrees warmer each day, especially in interior areas. HeatRisk is currently favored to remain Minor, but by Thursday features a 10-30% chance of Moderate in inland areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Stratus continues to mix-out through the morning, leaving VFR conditions at majority of terminals. Lingering low clouds can be expected along the immediate Pacific coast through the day. Onshore west/southwest winds will increase this afternoon, becoming breezy at the usual wind-prone terminals. Stratus will redevelop overnight with the return of MVFR/IFR ceilings to some terminals. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the day with light easterly winds over the next few hours, then transition to west/southwest in the afternoon. 18Z TAF leans on persistence for overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions through the day with west/southwest winds at OAK. For SJC, drainage southeast winds through around 21Z, then becoming northwest. Redevelopment of MVFR ceilings at OAK likely after ~11Z Friday. Monterey Bay Terminals...Both MRY and SNS have gone from OVC/BKN to SCT/FEW in the last 30 minutes. Expect VFR conditions through much of the day with the MVFR ceilings returning around 01-02Z Friday. Gust onshore winds through the day will subside after sunset. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Northwest winds will prevail over the waters through the weekend, with the strongest winds in the north. Seas will abate to become moderate to rough today and Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Rowe MARINE...Rowe Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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