Severe thunderstorms which can bring large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible over parts of the central U.S. through this weekend. Thunderstorms with heavy to excessive rainfall moving from Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley through this weekend may produce areas of flooding. Read More >
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946 FXUS66 KMTR 060455 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 955 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Breezy to gusty onshore winds in the afternoon and evening - Cooling trend arrives this weekend with a chance for light rain early next week - Hazardous beach conditions continue through Saturday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 (This evening through Saturday) Clear conditions prevail across the region with mild upper level ridging continuing across the state. Another day of temperatures warmer than the seasonal average is expected with today`s highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s in the inland valleys, the middle 70s to the lower 80s near SF Bay and the Santa Cruz coastal plains, the middle 60s to lower 70s in the southern Monterey Bay region, and the lower to middle 60s along the coast. Breezy onshore pattern winds are expected to develop today with gusts to 20 to 30 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and along the ridgelines. The strongest gusts along the North Bay coast and through the Altamont Pass could reach 35 to 40 mph. Overnight, some stratus development is possible on the western side of the San Mateo Peninsula, the Monterey Bay region, and the Salinas Valley. For Saturday, a pattern change towards cooler temperatures will arrive as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Highs will dip rather noticeably as the inland valleys drop to the middle 70s to lower 80s, while the Bays sees temperatures in the middle 60 to the lower 70s and the Pacific coast drops into the middle 50s to lower 60s. The afternoon onshore flow will be a little gustier as the trough allows the pressure gradient to increase. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) Troughing will continue into the middle of next week as a second upper level low reinforces the pattern. Temperatures will dip in the early part of next week with highs in the 70s across the inland valleys and the 60s close to the Bays. Some rain chances are also possible for the early part of next week, although the exact timing continues to jump around with each model run. The current forecast has chances for rain topping out around 20 to 40% along the coast, arriving late on Monday into Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts continue to fluctuate, but even in the reasonable worst case scenario from the NBM 90th percentile, rainfall amounts along the Sonoma coast top out around a quarter to a half an inch, with totals above a tenth of an inch generally confined to Sonoma County, western Marin County and the Marin coastal ranges, and the coast of the San Mateo Peninsula. The troughing pattern is expected to move off to the east towards Wednesday and Thursday, and longer range ensemble model output hints at ridging returning to the West Coast with temperatures rising above seasonal averages towards and beyond the end of the 7- day outlook. Extended outlooks show that temperatures above seasonal averages are slightly more likely than not (50-60% probability) for the June 12-18 period; for context, during this period, the seasonal average high temperature for downtown San Francisco is around 67 degrees, for Santa Rosa around 80 degrees, for San Jose around 79 degrees, for Half Moon Bay around 64 degrees, for Livermore around 83 degrees, and for Salinas around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Breezy NW winds will be the main aviation impact overnight through Saturday with a dry cold front passing over the region. NW gusts to 39kt occurring at SFO with Airport weather warning issued earlier. Breezy winds continue overnight then only gradually ease through midday Saturday. Onshore flow increases Saturday afternoon and evening. Low cigs already developing at KHAF and KMRY and likely soon for KSNS per latest satellite imagery. Medium to high confidence for no cigs to impact the major terminals through the next 24-30 hours. Vicinity of SFO...Westerly wind gusts in excess of 30 kt through about 08z then only slowly easing before increasing again Saturday afternoon and evening. A few high clouds with the front but no low cigs forecast at this time. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO but with lighter west winds. Monterey Bay Terminals...Low cigs already reported for KMRY and likely to form by 08z for KSNS. Early mixing out by 16z Saturday with breezy NW winds being the main aviation impact through Saturday. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1049 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Hazardous conditions for small craft continue through the weekend. Gale force gusts are expected across the outer waters and along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur today, expanding to all of the inner waters on Saturday. As a result, very rough seas are expected in the outer waters with rough seas for the inner waters. Conditions will slightly begin to improve Sunday with moderate seas and moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes expected by Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 351 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 9 AM Saturday for Pacific Coast beaches. Long period southwesterly swell of 17-18 seconds at 3 feet will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, especially at southwest facing beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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