Record warmth will persist across portions of California, the Southwest U.S., the central Great Basin and spread across the central U.S. for the middle of the week. High temperatures will approach 90 from Texas to the Ohio Valley. A moist frontal system will bring lowland rain, high elevation mountain snow, and breezy winds to the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies through Wednesday. Read More >
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691 FXUS66 KMTR 240639 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1139 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026 - Slightly above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend - Dry weather continues this week; increasing potential for light rain to return beginning of April - Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains Thursday into Friday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1137 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026 (Tonight through Wednesday) Currently clear skies on satellite with just a few high clouds drifting across the North Bay and Central Coast. Confidence is low that stratus will be able to develop overnight given the rebuilding ridge and compressed marine layer. A look at the current RH values shows fairly dry conditions across the region which further decreases confidence that stratus will be able to develop tonight. High resolution guidance (HREF, HRRR) both support clear skies continuing through the rest of the night with fog not anticipated to develop. Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday as ridging rebuilds over the Western United States. This will see a continuation of high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coastline. Interior Monterey and San Benito counties remain the warmest locations with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Minor HeatRisk continues through the end of the week. This primarily impacts those who are extremely sensitive to heat with minimal impacts expected for the population at large. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to 50s across the region. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1137 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) While still above normal, temperatures are expected to cool slightly (3-6 degrees) Wednesday compared to Tuesday. High temperatures across the board Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 70s across the interior, 60s along the coast, and mid 80s across the interior Central Coast. Why are temperatures cooling? Glad you asked. While the upper level ridge is currently rebuilding over the West Coast, it won`t stay centered over southern California for very long. A cut- off low is expected to merge back into the jet stream and move through California (becoming a weak upper level trough) Wednesday into Thursday. This trough will displace the center of the ridge and warmest temperatures eastward. At the same time, a deep upper level trough and surface low pressure system will make their way into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. The trailing cold front associated with this system will extend southwards into California and reach the Bay Area Wednesday/Thursday. While the front does fall apart as it moves through the Bay Area, it will bring a cooler airmass with it that will help to keep our temperatures cooler. It is expected to be a dry frontal passage so don`t get too hopeful for rain just yet. At most we may see some drizzle on Wednesday over the marine environment. More notably, we can expect winds across the marine environment to strengthen with widespread gale force gusts across the outer waters Wed-Thurs. Gusty onshore winds (20-35 mph) will spread along the coastline and across the higher elevations Wednesday into Thursday as cold frontal passage occurs. Temperatures remain fairly consistent in the 70s to low 80s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast Friday through the remainder of the weekend. A potential pattern change remains possible early next week as a deep upper level trough remains on track to approach the West Coast. This system will bring us our next chance of light rain. Moderate offshore (NE) winds look to develop across the North Bay Interior Mountains Thursday into Friday as high pressure strengthens across the Intermountain West and thermal troughing develops over CA. The strongest winds should stay over the higher elevations/along the ridgeline with gusts between 30 to 40 mph expected. Fire concerns remain low at this time but smaller fuels (grass) are curing due to the recent abnormally hot temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing. Low probability for sub-VFR conditions to return tonight, with the relatively greatest chances at HAF, MRY, SNS, and STS. If sub-VFR conditions do develop, it will likely be brief and/or intermittent around the 12Z timeframe. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 946 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes and moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday. Strong to near gale northerly winds will develop Wednesday into Thursday with gale force gusts expected for the inner waters and outer waters. Rough to very rough seas will build as a result. Conditions improve by Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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