Another round of heavy rainfall will renew concerns for additional flash flooding and landslides in southern California around burn scars and coastal mountain ranges. A low pressure system is bringing enhanced snowfall downwind from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast mountain ranges. Above average temperatures will challenge or break daily record high temperatures across the southern Plains. Read More >
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331 FXUS66 KMTR 162348 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 348 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 - A strong cold front with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain expected overnight. Slight chance of thunderstorms (20-30%) tonight into Monday. - Drier and cooler weather returns Tuesday-Wednesday. - Next weather system brings beneficial rain late Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 (This evening through Monday) We`re in between weather systems this afternoon as the upper level low from Saturday pushes east and the next system advances from the west. A cold front will bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain, spreading from north to south tonight. The heaviest rain should occur between midnight and 4AM, which will be accompanied with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms. Any storms that occur may bring with it heavier pockets of rain, gusty and erratic winds, and lightning. Rain chances begin to ease towards the morning though rain will still be occuring during the morning commute before tapering off later in the day. The North Bay Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains look to receive an additional 1-2.5" of rain Sunday night into Monday while the Santa Lucia Range receives an additional 2-3". For the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast, totals will generally range from 0.5-1.25" Sunday night into Monday. With the thunderstorm chances and the potential NCFR tonight, combined with already saturated soils, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4) has been issued for nearly all portions of the service area. The exception will be for the Santa Lucia where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2 of 4) is forecast. The most likely type of flooding we`ll see is nuisance flooding, especially in poor drainage, low laying, or urban areas. If you encounter flooding while driving or encounter a road closure due to flooding, do not attempt to drive through it instead find a different route. The last impact not covered yet is wind. Winds will slowly ramp up this evening, with a quick burst of stronger winds overnight. Peak wind gusts will generally be around 30-35 mph, with locally higher gusts possible along the immediate coast, the higher elevations, and mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass region). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday) Brief upper level ridging builds into the region late Monday/early Tuesday and holds through most of Wednesday. This will bring a brief period of cooler and drier weather with high temperatures maxing out in the upper 50s to low 60s in the valleys and the mid 40s to upper 50s for the higher elevations. Overnight lows will be chilly as well, with interior Central Coast temperatures dipping into the 30s, while the rest of the area flirts in the 40s. Another upper level trough is set to arrive to the west coast, which will bring renewed chances of beneficial rain to the region. Amounts generally look to be about 0.25-0.75" for the North Bay counties, Santa Lucia, and and Santa Cruz mountains. Elsewhere, amounts range from 0.10-0.40". && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 347 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with rain showers across the region. Rain showers will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and into the evening ahead of the cold front. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as the cold front quickly moves through. Southerly winds will strengthen and become gusty ahead of and during the cold frontal passage. Behind the cold front, rain showers will remain possible and winds will slowly veer to become onshore. MVFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period with further reductions possible in the heaviest rain. There`s also a chance for thunderstorms with this system, but confidence is not high enough in timing and/or location to include in the TAFs at this time. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. Light rain showers will continue through the afternoon and into the early evening. Rain showers will increase in coverage and intensity this evening ahead of the cold front. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with the cold frontal passage with post-frontal showers possible after. Southerly winds will continue to increase up to and through the cold frontal passage, slowly veering to become westerly behind it. There`s a general chance for thunderstorms in the area, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. Rain showers will trek towards the terminal over the next few hours with light rain showers this evening increasing in coverage and intensity tonight ahead of the cold front. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected through the cold frontal passage. Southerly winds will increase ahead of and through the cold frontal passage, slowly veering to become westerly behind it. There`s a general chance for thunderstorms in the area, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 347 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 Light showers continue into the evening, with rain chances increasing into the night. Expect building southerly winds that become breezy to gusty into the night. Winds will shift to a strong NW breeze as a new cold front arrives. This front will cause occasional gale force gusts, very rough seas, and poor visibility in heavy rain. There is also chances for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Conditions will improve Wednesday before very high WNW swell rolls in Thursday night through Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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