Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding risks increase across the center of the nation today. Meanwhile, ongoing thunderstorms and flash flooding will linger along the Gulf Coast states through the evening. The Great Basin and Intermountain West, warm temperatures and dry fuels with dry lightning may enhance fire weather potential. In addition, across interior Alaska, Red Flag Warning are posted. Read More >
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819 FXUS66 KMTR 201009 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents continue through the extended forecast - Minor HeatRisk with below normal temperatures through the weekend - Warmer temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk concerns return by midweek across the interior && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 (Today and tonight) The pattern overall will remain similar today as a broad upper level trough sits overhead. Stratus will expand across most areas this morning within a marine layer around 3000 feet deep. Drizzle may develop along the coast this morning as well, resulting in locally slick roadways. The deep marine layer and continued onshore flow will keep temperatures similar to yesterday, with highs along the coast ranging from the upper 50s to around 70. Inland, temperatures will remain below normal with highs reaching the 70s to lower 80s. Clouds should retreat back to the coast this afternoon, giving way to sunny skies in most areas. However, clouds may not fully erode in coastal areas due to onshore flow and orographic effects. Onshore winds will once again be breezy this afternoon and evening with gusts 15-30 mph, strongest in gaps/passes. The marine layer will begin to compress tonight as the upper level trough weakens. Marine stratus will still fill in most valleys tonight, but the extent should be lower overall. Patchy fog will also be possible along the coast and in wind-sheltered valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 (Sunday through Friday) The upper level trough will continue its weakening trend on Sunday and the marine layer will compress further. Decreasing marine influence and warming temperatures aloft will begin a warming trend, especially inland, where many locations will reach the 80s, with a few readings approaching 90 degrees in the warmest spots. The warming trend will continue Monday and Tuesday as a broad ridge builds across the western U.S. Highs will reach the 80s and 90s through the week across the interior. Hot temperatures will be accompanied by the potential for Moderate HeatRisk and increased heat impacts, although overnight cooling limits concerns somewhat. Closer to the coast, confidence in the temperature forecast is lower, but at least some warming is expected. More significant warming along the coast/SF Bay shoreline could develop if a weaker onshore or offshore wind pattern occurs, but confidence in this scenario is low. This potential will continue to be monitored as we head into next week. As mentioned in previous discussions, ensemble guidance continues to indicate moisture rotating north around the upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. By Wednesday and Thursday, there is a low (around 10%) chance that the moisture and accompanying instability makes it far enough west to bring a threat for thunderstorms to the Bay Area and Central Coast. Overall, the chance of this scenario occuring is low, but it could have a large impact. While the current forecast package does not include thunderstorms, this potential will continue to be closely monitored over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 953 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 The marine layer has begun to move onshore with patchy stratus developing near SJC, LVK, and SNS will result in widespread MVFR ceilings across the region. Coastal sites may see some drizzle around sunset time through midnight. Any accumulating precipitation is expected to remain very light, between 0.02-0.03 inches, and may cause a slight reduction in visibility. Stratus will recede back off land around 18 to 19Z Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...SW winds are gradually weakening in the area and will continue into the overnight hours returning after 20Z Saturday. As the marine layer deepens to around 2500 feet overnight, MVFR ceilings are expected to impact the terminal as early as 08Z Saturday and persist through 19Z Saturday. SFO Bridge Approach...SW wind and gusty pattern is similar to SFO. MVFR ceilings will develop slightly after SFO (09-10Z) and dissipate to SCT before SFO does (17-18Z). Will remain patchy through the late morning and become fully VFR by 19Z. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...SW winds are continuing to weaken and will continue into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings will impact OAK first around 07Z Saturday followed by SJC a couple hours later (09Z Saturday). Winds ease overnight before increasing again Saturday morning when the stratus begins to scatter out of their respective areas. Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds continue to gradually weaken and will continue into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings return this evening, impacting SNS first around 06Z and MRY by 07Z Saturday. Medium confidence on the timing of stratus at MRY as it may be intermittent at times. There also might be some light drizzle associated with the marine layer as it comes onshore, similar to this morning, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 308 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Light winds today will increase across the northern outer waters later tonight and persist through early Monday morning, while remaining relatively light across the remainder of the inner and outer waters. Long period southwest swell is likely to continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 308 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist for the remainder of the weekend, and increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the upcoming work week as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Malarkey MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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