Dry and breezy conditions prevail across the High Plains where elevated to locally critical conditions continue through Thursday. Meanwhile, record warmth increases and spreads across the South, Southwest and into southern California into this last weekend of February. Meanwhile, a fast moving system moves across the Plains then off the mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. Read More >
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261 FXUS66 KMTR 260545 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 945 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 - Warmer and drier conditions expect through Saturday, warmest on Friday afternoon - Cooler conditions arrive by Sunday and into Monday with a low end probability for light rain && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 Forecast remains on track this evening as temperatures get warmer tomorrow, peaking on Friday with a great start to the weekend on Saturday. Highs will be in the 70s tomorrow for most of our area with mid/upper 60s for portions of the immediate coast under filtered sunshine from a steady stream of high clouds out ahead of a developing system that may bring some light rain with no impacts on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Another warm and muggy day expected across the region with temperatures already in the low to upper 60s. The mugginess is due to PWAT values up to 1.25" as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the south. Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s across interior portions of the Central Coast. Overnight, low clouds will return to much of the region with Thursday morning`s low temperatures forecast to be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the North Bay and low 50s across the remainder of the region. By Thursday afternoon, expecting some of the low clouds to dissipate, yet mid and high level clouds will remain likely through much of the day. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to low 70s in the North Bay, coastal areas, and much of the greater San Francisco Bay Area. The warmest temperatures are likely across the interior Central Coast where there is a greater than 75% probability of exceeding 75 deg F (yet less than a 25% to exceed 80 deg F). This is as the ridge aloft continued to strengthen across the Bay Area and Central Coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) The warming and drying trend will extend into Friday when we are expecting the warmest temperatures across the region. Temperatures will warm into the low-to-mid 70s across the North Bay and bayshore. Meanwhile, we can expect mid-to-upper 70s across the remainder of the region. There is a 50%-75% probability for exceeding 80 deg F in the Santa Cruz Mountains and interior areas of the Central Coast. Thus, HeatRisk will reach the minor category on Friday across much of the region. Slight cool down on Saturday as an upper level cutoff low begins to approach the region from the west. However, Saturday will remain 5-12 degrees above seasonal averages. Cooler, unsettled weather returns Sunday across the North Bay and region-wide by Monday as the cutoff low moves across the region. However, no meaningful precipitation is expected across the region. The NBM only has up to a 20% probability of seeing greater than 0.25" across the North Bay and generally 10% in the Santa Lucia Range and Santa Cruz Mountains in a 24-hour period ending 4 AM Monday morning (up to 15% in the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range ending at 4 PM Monday afternoon). By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a short wave ridge will build in behind the exiting mid/upper level trough. Thus, slight warming and drying trend is expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 944 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 Expect mostly light to moderate winds and building high clouds into the night. IFR/MVFR CIGs become widespread into the late night and Thursday morning. Lower clouds look to erode for the late morning and early afternoon on Thursday, leading to widespread VFR. Winds become more moderate into that afternoon, but east into that night. Vicinity of SFO...Expect light to moderate west winds well into the night before winds become light and variable. As the winds weaken, MVFR CIGs build. These CIGs clear into early Thursday afternoon as northwest winds increase. Winds reduce again that evening as they turn more westerly, but become light and variable into the late night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds are weakening and MVFR CIGs are building around the Monterey Bay. Expect CIGs to fill into the late night and early morning, with continued movement of high-clouds. Winds at MRY remain light and variable through the TAF period, while winds from SNS go from light through the night, to more moderate and southeast into Thursday morning. Lower clouds erode into the late morning on Thursday, leading to VFR. Winds across the area become light into Thursday night.&& .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 835 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026 Expect light to moderate winds to continue through the weekend and into the middle of the next work week, staying mostly north to northwesterly. Seas become lighter into the weekend and build slightly into the next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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