Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi River Valley, and Deep South through Thursday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm (Arthur) as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. An outbreak of severe weather is forecast in the Midwest Wednesday. Read More >
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412 FXUS66 KMTR 161622 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 922 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Short term forecast on track. Morning stratus and fog has started to retreat and is expected to fully retreat to the coast by the late morning hours. Temperatures this afternoon will be similar to yesterday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure will remain in place across the area today, bringing similar conditions to Monday. A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep and onshore winds will keep temperatures near the coast slightly below normal, with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Extensive cloud cover within the marine layer this morning will retreat to the coast this afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny skies. Inland, including interior portions of the South Bay, East Bay, North Bay, and interior Monterey and San Benito counties, it will remain hot with highs in the 80s and 90s. Many locations will see Minor HeatRisk, but some areas will experience Moderate HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat- related illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. We continue to emphasize practicing smart heat safety by limiting time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated. Expect moderate onshore winds this afternoon with gusts 10-20 mph, except slightly stronger possible in open areas. The ridge will start to weaken on Wednesday beginning a cooling trend, mainly inland where high temperatures will cool by up to 2-5 degrees. The pattern near the coast will remain similar, with marine stratus in the morning decreasing in the afternoon and onshore winds keeping temperatures similar to today. Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The ridge will weaken further on Thursday as a weak upper level trough off the coast approaches the area. This trough will move across the area Friday and Saturday. However, any showers and thunderstorms associated with this system are expected to remain over the higher terrain north and east of the forecast area, keeping our area dry. Forecast soundings indicate the low pressure system deepening the marine layer with continued onshore winds (breezy each afternoon). This combination will continue the inland cooling trend, with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and along the coast. Weak troughing may continue into Sunday, but by Monday, ensembles generally agree that a ridge will rebuild across the West, with temperatures especially inland trending warmer once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Low-end MVFR/high-end IFR continues at nearly all terminals. Marine layer depth of around 1500 ft MSL pushed inland early this morning, and will slowly clear back towards the coast by 17-19z. Intermittent CIGs at LVK through 15z this morning. Around a 60-75% chance for clearing at HAF today, best chances being after 20z. Clouds push inland again this evening, mainly after 02z Wed, with similar depth as this morning. Lesser confidence in CIG at LVK for Wednesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...BKN-OVC clouds have finally reached SFO where they will linger through 17z or 18z before retreating to the coast as breezy westerly winds pick up. SKC and VFR should prevail thereafter, with intermittent gusts around 15 mph through the afternoon. Marine layer clouds with bases around 800-1100 feet MSL return this evening, but will struggle to filter into SFO until after 06z Wed or so, clearing out slightly earlier on Wednesday, around 15-16z. SFO Bridge Approach...Clouds will clear back towards the coast by 18-19z with VFR thereafter, but stratus may linger in the vicinity through much of the afternoon. Expansion of low clouds will occur after 03z Wed, with low-end MVFR conditions for the approach through at least 16z Wed. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...IFR CIGs at OAK and MVFR at SJC, with the latter prevailing through 16-17z before mixing out. Clouds may linger at OAK until closer to 18z, with VFR for both sites for the afternoon and gusty west to northwest winds up to 15 mph. Winds weaken and stratus returns around 06z Wed for OAK and 09z for SJC. CIGs at SJC may be intermittent at times Wednesday morning, with higher confidence of occurrence being after 11z. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clearing of low clouds will occur at a similar time today as previous days, around 17-18z. Stratus will linger just offshore through the afternoon, with VFR prevailing at both SNS and MRY. Low clouds move inland again this evening after 01z, filling into SNS sometime between 01-04z Wed. Bases of clouds will be similar to those observed this morning, around 800-1100ft MSL. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 920 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Northerly winds will become fresh to strong for the northern outer waters resulting in hazardous seas this evening to tomorrow morning. Otherwise, generally light to gentle winds to the weekend, with occasional moderate to fresh winds for San Pablo and San Francisco Bays. Seas will remain slight to moderate to the weekend with a low south-southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Zuber MARINE...DS Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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