National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Super Typhoon Sinlaku to Impact the Marianas and Guam; Severe Weather Threat from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes

Super Typhoon Sinlaku will bring destructive winds, widespread heavy rain/flooding, thunderstorms, and coastal impacts to the Marianas Islands into Wednesday. Typhoon conditions are likely over the Northern Mariana Islands. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes through Tuesday. Heavy snow is expected in the Pacific Northwest. Read More >

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673
FXUS66 KMTR 140725
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1225 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures continue through
Thursday

- Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations
Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning

- Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday

- Confidence is increasing for widespread beneficial rain
beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
(Today and tonight)

The upper level low that brought beneficial rainfall the past few
days has exited east with lingering low clouds overnight from the SF
Peninsula south into Monterey and the Salinas Valley, and farther
inland over the interior mountains of San Benito County. Low clouds
will linger across the Bay Area and Central Coast through mid-
morning today as a drier mid-level airmass filters in across our
area under shortwave ridging aloft, with mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will begin their
gradual increase through midweek today, with only slight increases
from Mondays highs. Tonight into Wednesday morning will still be
on the chilly side of normal with mostly clear skies, relatively
light winds, and more efficient radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)

Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly higher on the
backside of the progressive shortwave ridging. By Wednesday
afternoon, onshore flow will increase out ahead of a sharpening
trough that will bring gusty winds and a slight chance of rain
across northern portions of the North Bay. The better fetch of
onshore flow out ahead of the upper trough and associated surface
boundary will be short lived but will produce more widespread cloud
cover during the day and evening hours. Onshore flow will quickly
transition to north/northeast offshore flow overnight into Thursday
in the wake of the progressive upper trough. The gusty winds during
the day Thursday, especially above 1000ft are not expected to exceed
40 MPH with little impacts. Winds ease Friday, while a still
progressive but high amplitude ridge moves onshore producing a more
notable jump in temperatures Friday and Saturday to slightly above
normal for most locations. The active, progressive longwave pattern
continues by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week
with an increasing signal for another round of widespread
beneficial rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A deep marine layer is trying to reform as the atmosphere
re-stabilizes. The most likely impacts will be patchy MVFR
stratus at coastal terminals, although there is a decent chance
for brief impacts at inland terminals as well. There is very
little chance of IFR conditions, however.

Vicinity of SFO...Strong onshore wind will continue through the
night and through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a
20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday
morning before skies clear in the late morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings rolled in earlier than
expected at MRY, and will very likely remain through mid morning
at least. The bigger question is if and when they reach SNS. The
most likely window is from 10Z to 17Z, before the cloud deck
starts to mix out.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The gradient between high pressure in the East Pacific and lower
pressure over California will support a moderate to fresh NW
breeze and moderate seas across the exposed coastal waters
through Wednesday. A cold front will increase winds to near gale
force late Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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