Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast U.S. and North Dakota Thursday. Heavy to excessive rainfall is possible over eastern New Mexico into western Texas and over the western Florida peninsula Thursday. Read More >
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998 FXUS66 KMTR 030457 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 957 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Breezy northwest winds Thursday afternoon and evening. - Night and morning low clouds clearing to the coast each afternoon remains. - Near normal temperatures with a slightly below normal temperatures Thu & Fri. && .UPDATE... Issued at 649 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 No changes needed to the forecast this evening as we turn our attention to elevated fire weather conditions across higher elevations in the East and South Bay tomorrow. A quick building ridge will move through overnight before a deeper trough approaches early Friday. This pattern change is already underway as the 500 mb height has increased 30 m today (5820-5850). In between the ridge and trough, strong upper level winds will mix down to the higher elevations. While the temperatures drop a few degrees, the air above the marine layer will dry out a bit. The greatest impact will be from the strong winds, which will only diminish marginally Friday. As a reminder, July 4th is by far the day with the greatest wildfire starts across the country. Please obey all firework restrictions to avoid a serious incident. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (This evening through Thursday) Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low tracking into southern CA this afternoon. Behind it, weak upper level ridge has taken it`s place. This will gradually be pushed to our east and southeast by Thursday as the next upper level trough advances towards the PacNW and northern CA. In addition to our routine nighttime/morning clouds that clear to the coast each afternoon, we will have slightly cooler high temperatures in the afternoon. We will also be monitoring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mountains. Wind gusts look to be around 25-40 mph higher terrain, and inland gaps/passes, and for the aforementioned mountains RH values could fall to about 15-45% and recovering to 30-50% for the higher points of elevation. The stronger wind gusts, of 25-40 mph, will also be observed over the water and coastal areas. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Upper level troughing looks to hold through the weekend, leading to seasonably cool temperatures on the 4th. Expect the rinse and repeat forecast in terms the stratus creeping in each night and then receding to the coast each afternoon. Temperatures gradually become seasonal over the weekend, putting us closer to the seasonal averages. A quick peak into next week shows we could see a pattern change beginning around Wednesday. Cluster analysis shows high pressure over the southwest building, which should kick off a warming trend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 IFR and MVFR CIGS are building along the coast along with mist and drizzle and are affecting HAF as well as the Monterey Bay terminals. Winds reduce across the region into the evening and CIGs look to fall further into the night. Moments of low clouds also look to affect OAK and the North Bay terminals later into Thursday morning. Inland clearing begins in the mid morning with most TAF sites going VFR before the midday. The exception will be HAF, which keeps CIGs through the TAF period. Winds look to stay light to moderate through the morning and increase into Thursday afternoon, with gusty winds expected around the SF Bay. Expect winds to reduce into Thursday evening but remain breezy around the SF BAY. CIGs begin to move inland from the coast into the late evening, affecting the Monterey Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy to gusty winds reduce into early night, becoming moderate. Breezy west winds return into the late morning on Thursday with stronger winds and around 31 kt gusts expected in the mid afternoon and through much of the evening. These winds reduce in the late evening but look to stay breezy through that night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR CIGs look to turn to LIFR later into the night with some pockets of mist and drizzle in the area. Winds become moderate into mid to late Thursday morning CIGs erode over the terminals, but expect cloud cover to linger over the Monterey Bay itself. Cloud cover beings to push inland as winds reduce into Thursday evening with IFR CIGs filling over the terminals. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 956 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Breezy and gusty northwesterly winds and rough seas last through late Thursday. Gale force gusts will be likely across northern waters tonight and again on Thursday with A jet of wind affecting the waters near Point Sur. A low- amplitude long period southerly swell will arrive Thursday and persist through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 649 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Thursday afternoon and evening in the East Bay Hills, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, and Santa Cruz mountains driven by sustained winds as high as 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is not expected due to onshore winds and moderate humidity. A cold front will move through Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures and strong onshore wind. With lower temperatures, the minimum RH will stay moderate with good recovery overnight. Sustained winds will reach as high as 30 mph in the higher elevations of the East and South Bay. While the wind improves a bit, conditions remain elevated Friday (including during peak firework time). Wind speeds will continue to decrease through the weekend and into early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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