A storm tracking across the southern U.S. will continue to bring areas of heavy thunderstorms with risks for severe weather and excessive rainfall from Texas to Florida through this weekend. While much of this rainfall will be beneficial to the drought, excessive rainfall may bring areas of flash and urban flooding. Read More >
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879 FXUS66 KMTR 012031 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 131 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026 - Overnight and morning stratus will persist as the marine layer deepens through the weekend - Cooler temperatures this weekend with a chance of drizzle and/or light rain, mainly along the coast, into early next week - Warm and dry condition`s return the middle of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 125 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026 (This evening through Saturday) We`ll lose the influence of the upper ridging moving across our area this afternoon by sunset, with a pattern shift to persistent troughing through the weekend into the beginning of next week. Stratus has mostly retreated back to the coastline with San Francisco and SF Peninsula lagging a little behind early this afternoon. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with a layer of thin cirrus for the remainder of the day. As an upper low continues tracking south offshore toward our latitude, we`ll see the marine layer continue to gradually increase through the weekend. Stratus development tonight and its intrusion inland will be similar as what we saw last night into this morning. With the slight increase in the depth of the marine layer as well tonight, it should take a little longer to mix out Saturday, into the early afternoon for adjacent inland spots, and potentially linger most if not all day for immediate coastal areas. There is a chance of drizzle along the coast late tonight into Saturday morning with the best chances in higher elevated coastal ranges. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 125 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) The increased cloud clover inland and cooler temperatures will lead to a more notable drop in inland high temperatures this weekend, around 5 degrees from todays values on Saturday and another 5 on Sunday, with little change for coastal areas under the continuous influence of the marine layer. As the Rex Block begins to pivot inland, so too will the offshore upper low, beginning to take a more direct path inland on Sunday. The cooling trend will continue into the beginning of next week. By Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will bottom out to between 5-10 degrees below normal as the system tracks inland into the desert southwest. Unfortunately, this system has continued to trend drier from already anemic moisture offered in guidance earlier this week. As mentioned above, there will be patches of drizzle at times mostly confined to the coast but with no impacts. Wednesday appears to be the beginning of an extended period of warm and dry weather under persistent ridging well beyond the current forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM PDT Fri May 1 2026 Starting our May gray season off right with the coastal stratus deck largely impacting our region this morning with MVFR conditions. Most sites are expected to clear out shortly after 18Z today if they have not already with some lingering low-level clouds. Widespread VFR conditions are forecast by the early afternoon accompanied by breezy winds and high clouds. HAF is an exception as they will continue to experience IFR-MVFR cloud decks throughout the day and night. The stratus deck will return to most sites on Saturday between 02-08Z and persist until late Saturday morning. Vicinity of SFO...IFR/MVFR CIGs currently at the Bay Area terminals this morning with conditions forecast to improve to VFR around 20Z. Winds increase out of the west-northwest this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt at SFO. Winds diminish in the evening with MVFR CIGs returning by around 02Z-04Z Saturday with high confidence of them prevailing through early Saturday morning. There is a 30%-45% probability of CIGs lowering to IFR between 04Z-14Z Saturday, yet confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAFs. Expecting VFR conditions to return mid-to-late morning on Saturday with onshore winds increasing once again. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to today, may see an earlier clearing across the approach on Saturday morning. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions for SNS will settle in until this evening when the stratus deck begins to move onshore. MRY will remain MVFR through 20Z Friday, experience a brief clearing/VFR period before transitioning back to MVFR by 01Z Saturday. Breezy westerly winds will assist in this brief clearing period before calming down by the evening. Both sites will be on the border between MVFR-IFR again with moderate confidence of IFR CIGs to trickle in late tonight into the overnight hours and will remain until Saturday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 451 AM PDT Fri May 1 2026 A fresh to strong northwesterly breeze continues into Saturday before winds diminish, becoming moderate to fresh, late Saturday into Sunday. Moderate, wind driven, seas will build to 10 to 12 feet across the northern outer waters and 8 to 10 feet across the rest of the waters today through Saturday afternoon. Seas subside late Saturday into Sunday as winds continue to diminish next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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