Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the Great Basin and Southwest today, and exceptionally dry and windy conditions will promote rapid wildfire spread through the weekend. Scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains. Read More >
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381 FXUS66 KMTR 271115 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 415 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 - Gusty onshore winds today with east-west mountain passes as high as 50+ mph. Winds increase for the waters this weekend, with marine impacts through early next week - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a deeper marine layer with AM drizzle today - Beach hazards return this morning through Wednesday morning for south and southwest facing beaches along the Pacific Coast && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1225 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 (Tonight through Sunday) With troughing firmly in place, below normal temperatures are expected today with coastal drizzle and pockets of light rain through the morning. As the heights tighten with the southward push of the trough, winds will be elevated again today with gusts 50+ mph through west-east passes and mountain peaks, 20-40 mph wind gusts elsewhere. Winds will increase not only across inland areas, but also over the waters. Gusts up to 30-40 kt will be possible with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Marine hazards are currently in effect through Sunday morning, please see the marine discussion for further information. Along the Pacific coastal beaches, there is a possibility for marginal coastal flooding. Due to the upcoming full moon (Monday), thermal expansion of Pacific waters, and southerly swells, coastal flooding for low lying beaches at predominantly south facing beaches is possible at high tides through Monday. An uptick in long period southerly swell will result in a high risk of rip currents and sneaker waves. Never turn your back to the ocean! Beach hazards will be in effect this weekend and into much of next week, see the beaches discussion for more information. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1225 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) The pattern begins to shift Sunday as the aforementioned low weakens and starts to move up into Idaho and Montana and heights slowly increase. With this, the marine layer will begin to compress a bit each day into early next week, and temperatures will slowly warm back towards normal. General troughing is expected to continue into next week with temperatures slowly warming into the middle of the week, but generally should remain at or below normal through the forecast period. Windy conditions will persists especially over the marine environment leading to a series of marine hazards, please see the marine discussion for further information. The concern for hazardous beach conditions return for Pacific Coast beaches this weekend as long period southerly swells return. More information below in Beaches, but remember to never turn your back to the ocean! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 414 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Widespread MVFR-IFR stratus south of the Golden Gate with coastal drizzle possible through the morning. Monitoring a boundary coming through the SF Bay Area for possible ceiling impacts to the major terminals. Expecting mainly VFR conditions to develop after sunrise and particularly towards the early afternoon hours. Strong westerly winds gusting 25 to 30 knots are expected to develop through the afternoon and evening. Moderate confidence in how long the winds persist into the late evening and overnight hours as high resolution models are showing a faster decrease than that currently reflected in the TAFs. With winds aloft remaining rather gusty, stratus coverage tonight through Sunday morning may be limited to the immediate coastal regions and the higher elevations of the Central Coast. In addition, marginal LLWS concerns may develop tonight in the interior terminals. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR stratus at present. Monitoring observations after the passing of a boundary for potential low-end VFR ceilings soon, otherwise gradual clearing takes place after sunrise. Strong westerly winds gusting to 35 knots are expected this afternoon and evening, then diminishing overnight with moderate confidence on how fast the wind speeds decrease, and that the terminal remains VFR overnight. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Vicinity of OAK and SJC... MVFR stratus at present, monitoring observations for potential imminent improvement to low-end VFR as a boundary moves through the region, otherwise gradual clearing takes place after sunrise. Strong northwest winds with gusts 25 to 30 knots will develop this afternoon and evening before diminishing into the overnight period. Moderate confidence that the terminals remain VFR overnight. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR stratus continues through the morning hours. Strong west-northwest winds gusting to 25 knots develop in the afternoon and evening hours before gradually diminishing in the early overnight hours. Stratus will develop along the nearby ridgelines with low to moderate confidence that MVFR ceilings impact the terminals overnight. May need to monitor how the stratus develops this evening to get better insight. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 414 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Moderate to fresh northwest winds continue through the morning. Stronger winds become more widespread across the entire region this afternoon and through the night. These strong winds and rough seas will result in hazardous conditions for small craft across the waters at times well into the work week. Expect gale force gusts to develop in the northern outer waters and along coastal jet regions over the weekend as well. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1225 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the Pacific Coast Beaches from this morning through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Malarkey LONG TERM....Malarkey AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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