Excessive rainfall continues to produce life-threatening, locally catastrophic flash flooding along the central Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms may cause lightning-ignited fires and erratic behavior due to gusty winds across parts Oregon, California, and the Great Basin into the weekend. Read More >
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951 FXUS66 KMTR 191223 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 523 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents continue through the extended forecast - Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with below normal temperatures expected this weekend - Temperatures warm and Moderate HeatRisk concerns return by midweek across the interior && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 (Today and tonight) Stratus is filling back in once again early this morning as a marine layer around 2500 feet deep resides over the area. Additionally, satellite reveals scattered mid to high clouds developing over the North Bay as an upper trough approaching the coast taps into weak elevated instability. This will bring a very low (generally less than a 5% chance) threat of showers and thunderstorms, primarily to northern Napa and Sonoma counties. While thunderstorms are unlikely, the trough will aid drizzle development along the coast this morning. Despite light amounts, any drizzle could make roadways slick. The trough, deep marine layer, and onshore winds will continue the cooling trend today. Highs near the coast will range from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, with highs inland reaching the 70s to low 80s. These values are near to slightly below normal along the coast, but 5-15 degrees below normal inland. Clouds should recede this afternoon, but may hang on along the coast as moderate to strong onshore flow interacts with terrain. Winds this afternoon and evening will be breezy, especially through gaps/passes in terrain and near Monterey and San Francisco Bays where gusts 20-30 mph are possible. Tonight, expect stratus to redevelop within the marine layer with areas of drizzle along the coast. The long-period southerly swell will continue to bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through late Saturday night. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Temperatures will remain below normal on Saturday as a trough lingers along the coast. Coastal drizzle is also possible within the marine layer Saturday morning. By Sunday, the trough will start to weaken and the marine layer should begin to compress. This will begin a warming trend, especially inland, where highs will reach the mid 70s to upper 80s, and even a few readings around 90 degrees in the warmest locations. The warming trend will continue early next week as a ridge builds across the western U.S. Confidence is high in hotter inland temperatures, with highs in the 80s and 90s becoming common Tuesday through Thursday and an increased concern for Moderate HeatRisk. Near the coast, confidence in the temperature forecast is low to moderate, but some warming is expected. More significant warming would likely be tied to a weaker onshore or even offshore wind pattern, which is low confidence at this time. The warming trend is definitely worth keeping an eye on and is a reminder that, despite our currently below normal temperatures, impacts from heat will become more likely next week. Finally, by Wednesday and Thursday, a minority of ensemble guidance indicates a plume of elevated instability rotating around the upper level ridge (centered over the Desert Southwest) and across the Central Coast and Bay Area. While confidence in this pattern is very low (currently around a 10% chance of occurrence), it bears monitoring as thunderstorms would be possible in this scenario. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Ongoing -RA/-DZ across much of the region with sufficiently deep marine layer. Bases currently hovering right around 1500-2000ft MSL, with stratus expected to begin eroding out 16-18z for inland terminals. Clouds should clear from the coastal sites today, around 20-21z for MRY and SNS, with moderate confidence in at least brief clearing at HAF around the same time. Gusty southwest to west winds develop this afternoon around 20z for most locations, with intermittent gusts up to 25-30kts in some spots. Conditions will be largely VFR this afternoon with FEW high clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL this morning and afternoon. Winds expected to weaken after 04-05z Sat, and similarly based marine layer will move inland around the same time. Clouds expected to reach as far inland tonight as they did this morning, with -DZ/-RA possible once again. Vicinity of SFO...BKN stratus based ~2000ft MSL will prevail through around 15/16z before starting to scatter out, but unlikely to clear completely until closer to 21z. VFR prevailing thereafter with FEW high clouds. Breezy southwest winds develop around 19/20z with gusts up to 25kts, briefly closer to 30kts, through 04z Sat. Marine layer stratus moves back in again after 05z, filling into the terminal fully closer to 09z with similar depth. SFO Bridge Approach...Patchy low level clouds along the approach with bases generally around 1800-2000ft MSL. Clouds will continue to fill in through 14z before beginning to clear out, with stratus lingering in the vicinity through around 20z or so. Breezy west- southwest winds develop around 21z, prevailing through 04z Sat with gusts around 25kts. Patchy marine layer clouds move back in with similar bases after 08z. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Intermittent MVFR CIGs will continue for both locations through 17/18z when they will scatter out. VFR prevailing thereafter with FEW high clouds. Breezy west to northwest winds develop after 20z with gusts up to 25kts this afternoon before weakening around 05z. Marine stratus returns with bases around 2000ft MSL, filtering into OAK around 05z Sat and pushing into SJC closer to 09z. Monterey Bay Terminals...-DZ with a marine layer depth of around 2000ft. Scattering out will occur around 18-20z, with generally VFR for the afternoon. Breezy winds for both terminals, with gusts around 20-24kts through the early evening. Low clouds will begin to move in again around 03z with bases around 2000ft MSL, filling into the terminals fully by 06-08z. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 423 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Light winds early this morning increase this afternoon becoming fresh to strong out of the W/SW into the early evening hours with hazardous conditions for small crafts in the San Francisco Bay, Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay and Monterey Bay. Expect moderate chop at times with the increasing winds this afternoon and evening. Long period southwest swell will continue into the weekend with moderate W/SW winds across the outer waters. Winds ease Saturday then increase across the outer northern water early Sunday into the beginning of next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Sunday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through late Saturday night. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Zuber MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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