Severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest through Saturday which could bring large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes. Heavy to excessive rainfall may produce flooding over a part of the Midwest today. Elevated to critical fire weather are expected today into this weekend over parts of the central Rockies and Great Basin. Read More >
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703 FXUS66 KMTR 041145 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 445 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1255 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 - Breezy to gusty onshore winds mainly in the afternoon and evening - Notable cool down for the weekend through the middle of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1255 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 (Today and tonight) Strong mid to upper level high pressure i.e. 500 mb height 589 decameters and moderate northerly 6.7 mb ACV-SFO and onshore 3.4 mb SFO-SAC surface pressure gradients prevail early this morning. The marine layer depth varies from 1000 feet to locally 2000 feet. The surface pressure gradients and cool air advection are producing gusty wind flow trapped beneath the upper level high`s lower level temperature inversion with a varying focus of onshore winds through the coastal gaps. With early June solar input and the close proximity of the lower level temperature inversion with the strong mid to upper level high pressure system, daytime high temperatures will warm back up above normal today. Forecast highs today upper 60s to lower 70s coastside to the 80s and 90s far inland. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1255 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) With strong mid to upper level high pressure prevailing Friday, daytime highs will warm back up to above normal with warmest to hottest inland temperatures reaching the 80s and 90s. On Saturday the upper level high will begin to weaken, daytime highs will begin to trend lower with inland highs mainly in the 70s and 80s. Sunday`s temperatures will be a repeat of Saturday`s temperatures. Additional cooling Monday through Wednesday will lower daytime high temperatures a few more degrees with 70s well inland except in the 80s southern interior. Recent GFS and to some extent the ECMWF have been showing a trough arriving with some measurable rainfall early next week. With a strong late season meridional temperature gradient, ongoing negative (cool) phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation and moisture tap back to the western Pacific, it`ll be interesting to see if e.g. the recently wetter solution GFS verifies. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR with a dry cold draped across the Bay Area. Stratus has been effectively wiped out in its wake with terminals south of the Golden Gate being impacted by LIFR-IFR ceilings. Widespread VFR is expected by the afternoon. Moderate confidence on IFR ceilings returning to coastal terminals tonight. Low confidence elsewhere due to the drier airmass and mixed atmosphere that is expected. Diurnal winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR by late-morning in the 16Z-18Z timeframe. Westerly winds will increase through the day with gusts of 30 knots likely this afternoon and evening. Low confidence in a ceiling returning tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...Patchy stratus is expanding across the San Mateo Bridge Approach and will likely clear later than the terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and LIFR with westerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing by this afternoon. Moderate (60%) confidence on IFR ceilings returning this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 444 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Hazardous conditions for small craft continue through the weekend. Gale force gusts are expected across the outer waters and along the coastal jet regions. Moderate to rough seas will continue to build through tomorrow to become rough to very rough for the inner and outer waters. Conditions will slowly begin to improve Monday as northwesterly winds diminish to become fresh to strong and seas abate to become moderate. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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