Scattered areas of heavy rain continue to produce isolated flash flooding across the Florida peninsula. Anomalous moisture will combine with a cold front and will bring heavy rain and scattered flash flooding across the Mid-South, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and Tuesday. Above average temperatures will continue to be found ahead of the cold front from the Midwest to the Northeast. Read More >
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949 FXUS66 KMTR 060434 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 934 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions through midweek, with moderate offshore wind expected through Tuesday in the higher elevations - Unsettled weather returns late in the upcoming week && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 No changes to the forecast this evening. Satellite imagery shows stratus trying to develop or move along various portions of our coast. Any cloud development should stay confined to the coast, with any movement onshore being short lived. This would be due to the weak to moderate offshore flow developing late tonight and into early Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 203 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 (This evening through Monday) Mostly clear sky conditions have returned to the region this afternoon with temperatures forecast to peak in the 60s near the immediate coast, lower 70s just inland away from the coast, and the low 70s to lower 80s across the interior. This is a result of the offshore flow in the higher elevations and building high pressure over the eastern Pacific. However, troughing persist across the Intermountain West with a cut-off low expected to develop overnight just west of the Bay Area. Low clouds and/or patchy fog are forecast to return back to the coast and coastal adjacent inland valleys as the marine layer will likely compress to around 1,000 feet in depth. The aforementioned cut-off low will aid in increased offshore winds in the higher elevations overnight and into Monday morning, being the strongest over the North Bay and East Bay. Thus, the strength off the offshore flow may limit low clouds and fog potential tonight and into Monday morning. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 80s inland way from the immediate coast with upper 80s across the interior on Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 203 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday) Warm conditions will persist into Tuesday afternoon (similar to those on Monday), yet onshore flow is expected to cool temperatures near the coast. By Wednesday, onshore winds will return to much of the region and cool temperatures to near seasonal averages. There remains much uncertainty from Thursday and into the upcoming weekend. There is fairly decent confidence that temperatures will cool in response to an upper level through approaching and/or moving inland over the Pacific Northwest. However, the confidence of receiving rainfall remains the big question beginning Friday. The greatest potential of seeing any rainfall will be over the North Bay and in the Santa Cruz Mountains as a cold front moves through the region. From the previous forecaster: "The biggest question in the forecast is if this moisture will reach the Bay Area before the cold front arrives and stops its forward progress. If it does, the front will have a very juicy atmosphere to lift, potentially bringing up to an inch of rain to parts of the Bay Area. If it doesn`t, the offshore winds all week will leave a drier than normal air mass, severely limiting rain potential. To demonstrate the uncertainty, the NBM 72 hour precipitation spread (10th-90th percentile) paints a stark contrast. The wet scenario would bring 1.7" of rain to NW Sonoma County through the weekend, while the dry scenario wouldn`t bring a drop. Those outcomes are both equally likely at the moment, so don`t put too much faith in the forecast details. All we can say now is the next chance for rain arrives late next week, but we can`t yet say how much will fall." && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 934 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 It`s VFR except along the immediate coastline satellite imagery and surface observations still show a few areas of low clouds /IFR/. The WMC-SFO pressure gradient is currently 8.2 mb and forecast to increase to near 10 mb tonight and Monday morning. Surface winds are a mix of onshore and offshore, however overnight to Monday morning offshore winds are forecast. Offshore winds, a compressing marine layer under thermal ridging aloft support near high confidence VFR forecast for the 06z TAFs with exception of temporary IFR along the immediate coastline. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West to northwest wind 10 knots through the evening then trending toward light offshore wind late tonight and Monday morning. Northwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots Monday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR in low clouds over the northern Monterey Bay otherwise it`s VFR. Based on recent high resolution model forecasts low clouds temporarily spin up with a circulation over the Monterey Bay otherwise precluding low clouds /IFR/ from reaching KMRY and KSNS through the evening. Offshore winds support drier conditions tonight and Monday supporting VFR at all terminals. Surface winds shift to light offshore/cooler air drainage winds tonight and Monday morning. Onshore winds redevelop Monday afternoon then becoming light east to southeast Monday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 927 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A weakening weather pattern over the waters is allowing for winds and resultant seas to continue to decline. Look for light to moderate winds and generally low seas for the next couple days. Locally gusty winds and steep seas are possible around prominent points and headlands. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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