Severe storms, including large hail, wind, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are possible in the central Plains. Dry, windy conditions and lightning from dry thunderstorms may produce hazardous fire conditions in the Southwest and southern High Plains. Late-season snow is expected in the Northwest and the Great Basin. Heat is spreading across the eastern U.S.. Read More >
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193 FXUS66 KMTR 162331 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 431 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially along the immediate coast, will result in hazardous beach conditions through Monday - Hazardous marine conditions expected through the weekend - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (This evening through Sunday) Low pressure along the British Columbia coastline early this afternoon will push into the Intermountain West throughout the evening and into the overnight. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. Thus, expecting the strongest winds to be along the coast and in the higher terrain across the region. Therefore, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 5 AM Sunday morning along the coast excluding the Santa Cruz region for northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts as strong as 55 mph (especially along the immediate coast and in the higher terrain). For Sunday, expecting another disturbance rotate through the large scale trough and dig into the Great Basin once again. This will maintain a moderate to strong pressure gradient across the region with winds becoming offshore (northerly or northeasterly) in the higher terrain. Forecast temperatures for Sunday will be similar to or slightly warmer than today. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) A broad trough will remain over the Intermountain West through the early part of the workweek, yet is forecast to shift farther to the east. This will weaken the pressure gradient from much of the Bay Area and Central Coast by Monday night and into Tuesday. The one caveat, how deep will the marine layer be heading into early week. Temperatures have the potential to be 10 degrees F cooler along the coast and into the adjacent coastal valleys where low clouds (if they develop) will be slow to dissipate. By midweek, high pressure will begin to build in from the eastern Pacific leading to an inland warming trend. Meanwhile, as the marine layer is likely to deepen during this timeframe, cooler conditions will prevail near the coast and their adjacent valley locations. By the end of the week, ensembles are hinting at another trough approaching the West Coast and cooling temperatures regionwide. However, less confidence in the extended. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of some haze being observed at HAF and SNS. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Strong and gusty onshore winds are expected through the day with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. Winds will relatively diminish overnight before veering and restrengthening towards the end of the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with gusty westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Strong and gusty westerly winds with gusts up to 35 knots are expected through 07Z. Winds will veer tomorrow to become northwesterly by the afternoon with gusts up to 30 knots expected. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with gusty southwesterly flow at MRY and MVFR with gusty westerly flow and haze at SNS. Aside from haze, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Gusty onshore winds are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 430 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 Strong surface high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the eastern Pacific through the middle of next week. This will result in widespread gale force to storm force northwesterly wind gusts across the coastal waters. Storm warnings lower to gales for Sunday. Expect rough seas through the weekend with up to 19 ft waves during the strongest winds, but seas will ease into the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 Strong and gusty north to northwest winds continue to build through Saturday before becoming north to northeast by Sunday in the higher terrain. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Daytime humidity retention will fall to 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the early part of the week. RGass && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-530. Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Storm Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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