Well below normal temperatures will continue for the eastern half of the Lower 48 this week. Another blast of arctic air will spread from the Plains through the East/Southeast Friday into Saturday with more record lows expected even into Florida. Forecasts are being monitored for increasing potential of another significant winter storm to impact the eastern United States this coming weekend. Read More >
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415 FXUS66 KMTR 271208 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 408 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 319 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 - Mild with increasing cloud cover through the day - Increasing rain chances tonight through Wednesday morning for the North Bay into Bay Area, with light amounts between 0.1"-0.2" expected where it does rain - Drier conditions and weak offshore flow return quickly by Wednesday afternoon - Beach Hazards Statement for increased risk of sneaker waves and riptides Wednesday night through Friday Morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 (Today and tonight) The 00z KOAK sounding recorded 0.43" PWAT last night with HiRes short-term soundings indicating similar or lower values until after sunrise this morning in the North Bay, with the boundary layer not beginning to saturate until later this morning into the afternoon that far north. Prefrontal drizzle or light rain is possible along the North Bay coastal ranges later this morning into the afternoon with the added lift. Otherwise, the bulk of the rainfall is expected to move inland after sunset tonight, and shift east by sunrise Wednesday morning. Slight chance PoPs extend as far south as the Santa Cruz mountains later today and tonight, however rain totals south of the North Bay are expected to be less than 0.1" where it does rain. Inland areas of the North Bay like Santa Rosa are likely to see around 0.20" (mean hi-res ensemble %) with higher end reasonable amounts near 0.30" (hi-res 75th%), thus little impacts beyond wetting rainfall are expected. Lesser amounts are expected farther east as the progressive shortwave trough moves out of our area to the east. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) The progressive upper level trough moving across the North Bay will shift east Wednesday morning with a ridging pattern developing quickly in its wake. Weak offshore flow will return as a result with another dry airmass filling in for the remainder of the work week into the beginning of weekend. Long period westerly swell and increasing wave heights will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and riptides along with breaking waves up to 19ft Wednesday night through Friday morning, with a Beach Hazards statement issued for that time period, see the Beach Hazards discussion for more details. Slight chance PoPs return as soon as late Saturday night into Sunday for the North Bay once again, however a lack in consensus of the location, depth and timing of the developing trough leaves far more questions than answers at this point. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 359 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 Pockets of fog are affecting the North Bay as will as LVK and HAF, while the rest of the TAF sites remain VFR. High clouds continue to build into the region through much of the the day as the next front nears with mid-level clouds arriving into the afternoon. Expect light rain and MVFR clouds along the front as it passes through the area tonight. The front will also offer moderate southerly winds with weaker, shifting winds behind it. Cloud cover will be slow to erode in the post-frontal environment into Wednesday morning, with trapped moisture in the North Bay causing IFR CIGs. Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into the night. Expect mostly light and variable winds through the late morning before turning southwest for the afternoon and the evening. MVFR CIGs and light rain arrives with the front into the night, while winds turn southerly. CIGs linger into the late night as rain chances exit and winds turn westerly. VFR returns in the mid to late morning on Wednesday as winds turn northerly and CIGs lift and scatter. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Light and affect MRY through the forecast. Winds stay east to southeast through the morning and into the mid afternoon, with more moderate winds possible at SNS. Winds turn southwest at MRY for the afternoon, while SNS goes northwest. Light rain moves through the area into the night, but does not look to be impactful. These rains will be accompanied by mid-level clouds. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 Light to moderate southerly flow will prevail over most of the waters as a weak cold front approaches from the west through Tuesday. Winds will be moderate to breezy north of Point Reyes with locally hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds diminish on Wednesday and switch to northerly that night. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday, but build rough to very rough Wednesday night. The passing cold front will bring light rain to the coastal waters early Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. && .BEACHES... Issued at 359 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 Long period swells with low wave heights begin to arrive on Wednesday, but wave heights begin to increase that night while periods stay long leading to hazardous conditions. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued from 09 PM Wednesday through 09 AM Friday. Significant wave heights look to range from 14 to 19 feet. The main threat will be from sneaker waves and rip currents. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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