Areas of gusty winds, heavy rain leading to flash flooding, and high surf continue across portions of Hawaii as Tropical Storm Lala continues to move away from the islands. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will shift into the southern Appalachians today. Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, scattered wind gusts, and heavy rain today across the northern and central Plains. Read More >
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970 FXUS66 KMTR 171743 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1043 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Shallower marine layer through midweek - Minor fluctuations in temperatures this week && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated upper level trough off the West Coast this morning, with a disturbance moving through this trough off the Mendocino Coast. This disturbance is bringing plenty of mid and upper level cloud cover to Northern and Central California. Given this thick cloud shield, it is hard to see the inland extent of the marine layer. However, we are continuing to see ceilings at all of our terminals, except for Livermore, which is scattered at this time. In addition, the 12z KOAK sounding shows that is it still shows the marine layer at 1800 feet deep, and we once again saw some patchy drizzle along the immediate coast, with several locations, mainly around the Monterey Peninsula and Bay, measuring 0.01 inches. Given this blanket of high clouds, most locations were not as cool this morning as yesterday, and for that reason, we are running 2 to 4 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. However, this cloud cover is also going to limit our day time heating. Therefore, expect another day of below normal to near normal temperatures across the region. Currently forecast seems to be handling these trends well, so no update is planned at this time. Palmer && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 (Today and tonight) Quiet weather today with little to no impactful weather expected through the next week. Temperatures today will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year with slightly more mild overnight lows to wake up to this morning than we`ve seen the last few days due to mid/high level cloud cover insulating radiative cooling. The mid to high level cloud cover will continue out ahead of a persistent troughing pattern over the EPAC. The additional cloud cover may impact daytime highs as well, limiting peak day heating somewhat. Some patchy fog and drizzle may be possible as well, especially right along the coastline. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Slight shifting in the persistent troughing over the EPAC and the upper level ridging over the Four Corners region will result in subtle warming Tuesday and Wednesday, as the upper ridge pushes west slightly. The troughing pushes back to the east for the remainder of the week, cooling temperatures a few degrees. Overall, temperatures will be on the cooler side of normal for a majority of forecast period. There is no clear signal for a significant pattern change through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Stratus is beginning to clear to the immediate coastline allowing for VFR conditions across the interior. However, coastal terminals may remain IFR/MVFR with only brief breaks in the low cloud cover this afternoon. High level clouds will persist today as well. Onshore winds increase this afternoon and remain gusty at times through early evening. Expecting an inland push of stratus late this evening and spreading into the inland valleys overnight. The greatest potential for LIFR is in the coastal terminals and KSTS early Tuesday morning. IFR/MVFR is most likely in the Bay Area terminals early Tuesday morning before scattering out by 18Z-20Z Tuesday. Onshore winds increase again by Tuesday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase by early this afternoon and will be gusty at times through early evening. IFR/MVFR ceilings return early Tuesday morning with weaker wind speeds, potentially variable at times Tuesday morning before increasing once again by the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR at KMRY and MVFR at KSNS currently, eventually becoming VFR at KSNS this afternoon with the potential for KMRY to remain MVFR throughout the day. However, have KMRY scattering out by 20Z in the current TAF. Have LIFR/IFR conditions returning this evening and potentially lowering into the night, however confidence is not great enough to include in the TAF at this time. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 925 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Winds gradually increase with a fresh to strong breeze developing by late tonight and continuing through the end of the forecast period. Locally stronger winds are possible in the coastal jet regions north of Point Reyes and along the Big Sur coast. Seas build to 7 to 9 feet by Tuesday and Wednesday before abating late week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Nocturnal drying through at least mid-week as the marine layer gradually compresses. Expect more widespread fair to moderate recoveries developing over the higher elevations, especially in and around the Timber Fire. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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