Dangerous heat persists across the Desert Southwest through this weekend and across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through at least the middle of next week. Numerous daily record high temperatures are expected through at least Tuesday for much of Texas and Oklahoma as well as portions of Louisiana, New Mexico, and Arizona. Read More >
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188 FXUS66 KMTR 231623 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 923 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer through the next week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The marine layer remains much more compressed today with stratus confined to coastal areas and patches of it along the SF Bay shoreline. Stratus is expected to recede earlier today than yesterday with high level clouds to persist through the day. Otherwise, expect highs in the 80s across the interior with the warmest interior locations reaching the 90s. Coastal areas will stay cooler in the 60s to 70s. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Today and tonight) Another day of the weather pattern dominated by the balance between the ridge over the Desert Southwest and the troughing over the Eastern Pacific. Today, a cutoff low moving across the Pacific Northwest is allowing the ridging to have a little more impact over central California, resulting in a compressed marine layer and a slight uptick in temperatures across the interior. Some coastal stratus development is still possible through the overnight hours, and any stratus that does form will dissipate rather early in the post-sunrise hours. High temperatures today range in the middle 80s to the middle 90s across the interior, the upper 90s into the triple digits in the warmest interior spots (especially southern Monterey County), the 70s and lower 80s near the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Breezy onshore winds are expected in the afternoon and evening along the coast and through favored gaps and passes. Regarding conditions near the Timber Fire, the compressed marine layer will lead to warm and dry conditions in the higher elevations where the fire continues to actively burn. Light northeast winds in the morning will shift to a southwest flow in the afternoon and evening hours. Smoke transport will be inhibited by the marine layer inversion into the morning, resulting in the potential for reduced visibilities in the immediate area, while winds aloft will transport smoke northeastward towards Salinas and Hollister. For air quality information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air Resources District. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Monday through Saturday) The pattern remains relatively stable through the rest of the forecast period. A developing low in the eastern Pacific will allow more of the troughing influence to arrive on Monday, causing temperatures to dip by around 3-6 degrees in the inland valleys (around the lower 80s to the lower 90s), before temperatures rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the ridging reasserting itself, and remain remarkably close to today`s forecast through the end of the 7- day outlook. The breezy afternoon and evening winds will continue to develop for coastal areas and through favored gaps and passes. Ensemble models and our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center continue to suggest the possibility for a couple of tropical systems to develop off the coast of Mexico through the next week. One such system could very well develop today. It`s too early to say what the impacts of the system could be to the region, ranging from impacts to the large-scale pattern to the potential for tropical moisture flow towards our region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR. Warmer and drier conditions are inhibiting stratus formation this morning and high clouds streaming in from the southwest are not helping. As a result, confidence is decreasing in the widespread return of IFR/MVFR stratus this morning. OAK, SFO, and STS have been reduced to TEMPO groups for IFR stratus through 16Z with APC, LVK, and SJC likely remaining VFR. Coastal terminals of HAF, MRY, and SNS can expect ceilings on the cusp of LIFR/IFR. Due to the patchy nature of stratus, VFR will likely be achieved earlier than normal. Diurnal winds will prevail. A more normal stratus intrusion is expected tonight, leading to moderate confidence in ceilings (likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR) returning to most terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Confidence continues to decrease on a ceiling developing at the terminal this morning with the camera showing stratus holding to the northwest. If it is able to develop, it`ll likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Diurnal winds will prevail. Higher confidence on a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR returning tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely stay VFR longer than the terminal this morning with patchy stratus along the East Bay Hills. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. SNS is expected to get a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/LIFR. VFR is expected by late-morning with an early return of IFR stratus this evening. Diurnal winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 920 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds remain moderate through Sunday and gradually ease to gentle breezes through the middle of next week before increasing again. The northern outer waters will continue to experience near gale force gusts into the evening. Wind driven seas remain slight to moderate entering the work week. Reduced visibility due to smoke from the Timber Fire is expected along the Big Sur coast as the marine inversion holds through the morning. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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