A front will bring scattered showers and storms to portions of the Central and Eastern US. Severe storms are expected in parts of the Great Plains and Ozarks today. Meanwhile, dangerous heat will intensify across the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. Elevated wildfire conditions will develop across portions of the Northern/Central Plains and air quality issues will persist in the Northwest. Read More >
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238 FXUS66 KMTR 061123 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 423 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1248 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions in the higher terrain Thursday - Warming trend through Saturday will result in moderate to major HeatRisk for the interior through Sunday - Near-critical fire weather conditions in the higher terrain Friday through Sunday - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay Saturday evening through Thursday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1248 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 (Today and tonight) Longwave upper-level ridging will drift in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean today, compressing the marine layer to near 1,500 feet in the process. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with the diurnal sea breeze. A surge of monsoonal moisture arrives today, increasing surface dew points and relative humidity in the process. Sensible weather wise, this will make it feel hotter and more uncomfortable than what the thermometer reads. Areas of moderate HeatRisk are expected in the interior with pockets of major in the higher terrain of Monterey and San Benito Counties. Stagnant air from the ridge may support haze from wildfire smoke. Elevated fire weather conditions continue today above the marine layer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1248 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Surface high pressure over the Four Corners will build and expand westward Friday and into the weekend. This will bring the hottest conditions of the week and compress the marine layer further. Areas of moderate HeatRisk across the interior on Friday will expand to become widespread on Saturday with areas of major. To put this into context: 850mb temperatures, 500mb heights, and PWAT values are all forecast to exceed the 90th percentile Saturday. No records are forecast with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal for the hottest spots. A potential wild card in the precision and subsequent impacts of the forecast is the aforementioned surge of monsoonal moisture. Mid-to-high level clouds would limit solar insolation during the day and radiational cooling at night, potentially resulting in cooler highs and warmer lows than the official forecast. Even though the ridge will begin to break down and dry air will begin to get filtered in from the northwest, cumulative impacts from the heat and humidity will likely still be felt on Sunday. Near- critical fire weather conditions are expected above the compressed marine layer Friday through the weekend due to hot and dry conditions with the diurnal sea breeze. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that upper-level shortwave troughing off the West Coast will prevent the aforementioned ridge and subtropical high pressure across the Eastern Pacific Ocean from joining forces and building out of control across our area. Sensible weather wise, temperatures will moderate to near normal with onshore flow Monday through Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding is expected during the highest high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay Saturday evening through Thursday morning. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Strong 500 mb high pressure continues while coastal stratus and patchy mist/fog /MVFR- IFR/ are moving inland on onshore winds. Onshore winds are supported by a 2.4 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradient. Stratus, mist/fog will mix out to VFR by late morning and early afternoon. Coastal stratus, mist/fog /MVFR-IFR/ return inland on onshore winds tonight and Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR 17z today. Stratus returns 06z tonight. West to northwest wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR/ until late morning then mixing out to MVFR-VFR. Stratus /IFR/ returns this evening and overnight. Mainly northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 412 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Northwest winds will increase over the outer coastal waters Friday through the weekend resulting in hazardous seas conditions for small craft. A long period southwesterly swell of 15-17sec begins Saturday, peaks on Sunday then begins to subside by the beginning of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1248 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions continue Thursday with hot and dry conditions alongside the diurnal sea breeze. PSAs of Mid Coast to Mendocino, Diablo/Santa Cruz Mountains, and Central Coast Interior are all currently in the 97th percentile for ERC with Mid Coast to Mendocino and Central Coast Interior forecast to reach daily record values this weekend. This indicates potential for extreme burning conditions. Even the more marine layer influenced PSAs of Bay Marine and Central Coast are forecast to peak in the 80th-90th percentile. Building high pressure will bring near-critical fire weather conditions Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with a shallow marine layer in place. Poor minimum daytime relative humidity as low as 10% is expected in the afternoons with little-to-no recovery expected overnight. The one missing piece preventing this from being a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning as of now is wind, it`s expected to be light. The exception being through gaps/passes (namely Altamont Pass, the Delta, and Pacheco Pass) and down the Salinas Valley. To add onto this, the critical conditions are not expected to overlap spatially (majority of a zone) or temporally (for at least 8 hours) to warrant a product. Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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