Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley Saturday. Rounds of heavy thunderstorms ahead of a slow moving front will continue locally heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding potential from the Ozarks to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Saturday. Extreme heat will continue for the Intermountain West and Plains. Read More >
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321 FXUS66 KMTR 111955 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1255 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 - Warmer and drier conditions continue into early in the week with Moderate HeatRisk returning - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns tonight through Monday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 (This evening through Sunday night) Not much change to the forecast over the past 24 hours. Seeing high clouds advect northward across the region early this afternoon, evident of the monsoonal moisture advancing northward. Given the marine layer compressing to around 500 feet, stratus has quickly retreated to the coast and even clearing in spots over the Pacific. This will give way to more sunshine (minus the high clouds) and allow temperatures to warm into the 60s to lower 70s near the coast, lower-to-upper 70s just inland, with 80s to lower 90s across the interior. Some of the warmest interior areas will reach into the mid- to-upper 90s. For tonight, mid/upper level moisture will continue to increase with Precipitable Water (PW) values reaching between 1.00-1.25" across the Bay Area and Central Coast as the high pressure aloft gradually shifts towards the Intermountain West. Thus, cannot rule out some high-based rain showers, sprinkles, or virga (precipitation not reaching the surface) given the dry layer between the marine layer and about 10,000 feet. On Sunday, temperatures will be similar to those this afternoon. By Sunday night, PWs will increase further to between 1.10-1.30" with minimal MUCAPE expected by most forecast models. However, still looks like a marginal case for dry lightning (generally less than 5-10%) given the lack of mid/upper level insatiability. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 (Monday through next Friday) We continue to see the mid/upper level moisture and marginal insatiability over the Bay Area and Central Coast. However, the moisture profile aloft will deepen potentially resulting in wetting (>0.10") rainfall. As we move toward the middle part of the week, the moisture aloft is forecast to exit eastward as the ridge aloft shift toward the Midwest. As far as temperatures go, we are expecting a warming trend in overnight minimum temperatures into early next week as a result of the increased monsoonal moisture surge. This will result in increased mid-to-high level clouds that will reduce the amount of radiational cooling. This brings more widespread Moderate HeatRisk to the region Monday and Tuesday before cooling of overnight temperatures begin Tuesday night into Wednesday. Toward the latter half of the week, troughing off of the Pacific Northwest coast becomes the dominate feature allowing for a gradual cooling trend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 VFR across the board with CIGs along the coast and mid-high level clouds overheads. Trending much more favorable over the next 12 hrs due to high clouds and decreasing marine layer impacts. Winds are relatively light to moderate this morning with stronger onshore flow expected this afternoon/evening. CIGs return along the immediate coast early tonight, but inland impacts are less. Overall conf is moderate. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with high clouds. NW winds with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. HREF/HRRR/NBM have trended to less chc (<30 pct) for CIGs tonight so kept SFO VFR. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Low CIGs will lurk in MRY Bay this afternoon and then come into MRY first and then SNS early this evening. Expect an earlier clearing time Sunday AM. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 910 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Northerly flow will persist through the weekend. Winds will ease south of Pigeon Point, but still remain moderate to fresh north of the Golden Gate. A moderate northerly swell will remain as well. Winds and seas build by the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Warm and dry conditions persist through much of the upcoming week, especially away from the coastal marine influences which are forecast to persist. This will increase fire weather concerns as fuels rapidly dry out due to low humidities. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early in the upcoming week as a surge of monsoonal moisture advects northward around the western periphery of the high pressure over the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The limiting factor is the lack of instability over our region those days. Thus, we will continue to closely monitor these conditions through the weekend. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. RGass && .BEACHES... Issued at 453 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026 A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal and in January we reached 2.5 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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