A couple of frontal boundaries will move east and south from the Plains to the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines. These boundaries will focus showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with scattered severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains and across the Gulf Coast states. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur, which may be welcome news across drought areas. Meanwhile, heat spreads westward. Read More >
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574 FXUS66 KMTR 090724 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1224 AM PDT Sat May 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 - Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part of next week - Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the interior early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1130 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 (Tonight through Sunday) The building ridge has called for much less stratus coverage than previous nights as the marine layer compresses. Cloud cover will still be prevalent along the coast, but will be spottier in the Bays and the inland areas. Pockets of fog will still be possible, but look to also be spottier than previous nights. Temperatures will still be close to average through the night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Saturday continues the warming trend due to the weaker marine influence, reduced cloud cover, and building ridge. Many more of the inland areas to break into the 80s, while coastal areas will stay low 60s, and the slightly inland areas stay in the 70s, but most areas away from the coast look to break 80. A few of the more inland areas look to break into the mid 90s than previous days. Saturday night will have slightly warmer temperatures and comparable marine layer conditions to Friday night/Saturday morning. However, the slights more compressed marine layer into Sunday morning will cause the overall moisture to be more denser within the marine later. This will offer better chances for early morning fog in the favored valleys. The compression of the marine layer and building of the ridge continues Sunday leading to temperatures to increase by another few degrees in the inland areas, while the coast remains cool in the 60s with the help of a good sea breeze and shallow marine layer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1130 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) While the marine layer stays intact for Sunday night, the inland push of stratus looks to be very modest. Again, valleys will see good chances for fog early Monday, but fog looks to mix out by the mid morning. The increasing pressure from the ridge will begin to form a thermal belt, causing higher peaks to see limited overnight cooling with lows in 60s and a few 70s. Monday is set to be hottest day of the forecast. The ridging patter peaks and most of the winds become light for a large portion of the region. Most of the interior valleys look to break into the 90s with widespread 80s for all but the near-coastal areas seeing the 60s and 70s. Those higher peaks affected by the thermal belt look to jump into the 90s as well with the warm morning lows giving them a head start. The ridge begins to push east, allowing for good cooling Monday night as the thermal belt collapses, and a notable cooldown Tuesday. However, Tuesday will still be on the hot side, offering temperatures similar to Sunday. From there, models continue to have a bit of a split in the movement of an approaching trough. The ECMWF and GFS model and ensemble families have the trough and its embedded low pass through the Bay Area and most of Northern California. This will offer drizzly conditions and much cooler conditions. But models differ on the timing, with some calling for this change in the mid week, while others slow it way down and hold off until the end of the work week. Another possible solution is that the low stays north, preventing the drizzle chances, and only offering modest cooling by the mid week as the pattern switches to zonal flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 Satellite looks quite different this evening as the stratus clinging to the coasts have dissipated, particularly around the North Bay. There a few patches linger around Marin County, wit h clear skies being observed elsewhere. Weak offshore flow is expected to develop over the North Bay tonight, which may hinder any stratus or fog development. Some hi-res guidance shows that KSTS may have some residual moisture and get a sunrise surprise type of situation, but even the depth of the moisture for that has been trimmed back. Opted to leave the TAF for KSTS with the sunrise surprise stratus but that could be adjusted with subsequent TAF updates. If that is the case, VFR conditions are expected over the TAF cycle, if not a brief period of IFR to MVFR cigs is possible at KSTS. VFR TAFs are expected for the interior East Bay terminals. HAF will remain MVFR with a period of IFR ceilings taking over until late morning Saturday. Moderate onshore winds will persist through their TAF period as well. Vicinity of SFO...Well the stratus ended up being fickle and is now reporting as FEW04 SCT011 at KSFO this evening. Confidence is low in the forecast for the overnight hours given no models really latched on to what happened today. Most guidance and soundings try and depict stratus flirting around KSFO, perhaps making a return around 9Z. Failing that, the time could be closer to sunrise and then only last for a few hours before becoming VFR. Breezy onshore winds are expected around 20-21Z and should last until 0-3Z with gusts up to 25-30kt. Winds ease and the marine layer might try to make a return late tomorrow night and into Sunday morning. Medium confidence in the forecast. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR ceilings dominate the first half of the TAF period with moderate onshore winds. SNS flirts with the boundary between MVFR-IFR, but there is high confidence that it will become IFR around 11/12Z, so I decided to go more pessimistic in the forecast as the models (GFS, LAMP, MOS) are in good agreement with one another. Westerly winds will become light overnight before picking up again mid-day Saturday. There will be a brief period of MVFR conditions late morning Saturday that will eventually scatter out for the afternoon. Don`t get too comfortable though because our marine stratus deck is set to return Saturday evening bringing MVFR ceilings to the terminals. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 855 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 Fresh to strong northwest breezes with occasional near gale force gusts will continue through the remainder of the weekend along with building rough seas. Winds become more northerly and fresh to moderate on Sunday with rough seas beginning to gradually ease late Sunday into Monday. Gentle to moderate north to northwest breezes are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Navarrete/KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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