Extreme heat continues across the Southwest as temperatures may top 120 degrees. The heat may expand across the West and south-central U.S. into the middle of the month. Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards today across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Rainfall could be locally heavy across the Eastern U.S. today. Read More >
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916 FXUS66 KMTR 032009 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 109 PM PDT Mon Aug 3 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 PM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026 - Moderate HeatRisk in the interior through Tuesday, becoming patchy midweek - Near critical fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bays, and the Diablo and Santa Lucia ranges through Monday with elevated fire weather threat through the week - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk looks to return for the end of the work week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1255 PM PDT Mon Aug 3 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night) Nearterm:The southerly surge continues to inch its way northward along the coast and finally made it past Pt Reyes. The surge has really taken a bit out of temperatures along the immediate coast this afternoon. 24 hr trends show many locations along the coastline are running cooler than Sunday, which isn`t surprising with nearby clouds. On the flip side, head inland and away from the surge influence and temps are soaring into the 90s and lower 100s. As such, Heat Adv remains in effect through this evening for Interior North Mts and Interior East/South Bays. Tonight through Tuesday night: The surge will become less of a surge and more just onshore with more stratus. Moderate marine layer stratus coverage for inland areas tonight. This stratus will bring some relief and better RH, but above the shall layer will remain mild and dry. Interesting set up for Tuesday as the upper level pattern shows a slight rebound of the ridge, but lower surface levels keep the southerly/onshore flow. Pretty hard to bet again stratus and cooler SST along the coast. As such, temperatures for Tuesday will be within a few degrees of Monday, but on the cooler side. Just enough to knock down HeatRisk values to Moderate with little to no Major. Tuesday night will see even more stratus coverage with a slight deepening. One final concern for the short term will be smoke/haze. Ample fire activity across OR/WA will push some smoke over the coastal waters. Longer range RRFS actually brings some smoke/haze to the coastal waters late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1255 PM PDT Mon Aug 3 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday) Rinse and repeat for the long term, but in the other direction with a gradual warming and drying trend. Upper level high pressure that briefly flattened will rebuild over the West Coast beginning late Wednesday lasting through at least Friday. While there is a slight reprieve in temps mid-week inland heat and increasing HeatRisk return Thursday and more so Friday. In fact, some of the guidance suggest an airmass approaching 30C at 850mb. 30C is a pretty toasty airmass, which would easily yield max temps over 100 across the interior. Would also expect mild overnight lows in the hills. If this trend continues we may need another Heat Advisory. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM PDT Mon Aug 3 2026 Current satellite imagery shows stratus receding to the coastline. Widespread VFR conditions prevail through the day as onshore winds increase to around 10-15 kt before easing into the evening. We had a bit of a disorganized southerly surge of marine stratus that not only brought IFR-LIFR ceilings to the coastline, but also south to southwesterly winds. We can anticipate another southerly surge to happen again tonight, though there is low to medium confidence on the exact arrival of marine stratus and how far inland it will perturb. Highest confidence for IFR ceilings, intermittently LIFR, at HAF and the Monterey Bay terminals. High confidence SJC and LVK will remain VFR through the TAF period. Low to medium confidence for marine stratus to reach North Bay terminals, though TAFs hint at the potential with SCT decks. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with moderate onshore breezes into the evening. Medium confidence on VFR conditions through the TAF period. As described above, there is uncertainty on whether the southerly surge of stratus will push through the Golden Gate and inland. If the stratus makes it through the Golden Gate, it is possible for IFR ceilings to reach OAK and SFO around the time of the SCT decks. Leaned more on the optimistic side for this TAF period as the surge was rather disorganized this morning and likely will be again tomorrow morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore winds follow their usual diurnal pattern with VFR conditions prevailing. As mentioned previously, the southerly surge of marine stratus will return overnight with SW winds likely for MRY. SNS will remain more NW. Low-end IFR ceilings will impact SNS first and then MRY between 06-10Z. Winds should remain light overnight, but there is the potential for visibility impacts around 4-6SM due to coastal drizzle/fog. Ceilings may also intermittently drop down to LIFR given how compressed the marine layer will be. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM PDT Mon Aug 3 2026 North to northwest winds continue to decrease from strong to fresh into the evening, becoming moderate overnight. Strong gusts persist in the far northern waters through the day before diminishing this evening. In response, rough wind driven seas continue to subside to moderate (4-7 feet) by tomorrow afternoon and prevail thereafter. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026 Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through Monday and after a period of elevated fire weather conditions, potentially return later in the week. Temperatures remain around 10 to 15 degrees above normal across the interior through early next week with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. No major changes to the forecasted dry conditions. Daytime humidity retention remains poor across the interior (20-30%) with humidity values dropping into the 10s across the interior Central Coast, East Bay Hills/Valleys, and the higher elevations. Portions of the interior Central Coast may see daytime humidity values drop into the single digits through the next couple of days. Overnight RH recovery remains poor at locations above 2,000 feet with values between 25 to 40% expected with some favored locations struggling to reach even 25%. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Energy Release Component (ERC) values are projected to climb above the the percentile across the interior Central Coast, Mid Coast to Mendocino (North Bay), and Diablo- Santa Cruz (Diablo Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains) zones within the next two days. Diurnally breezy onshore winds are expected along the coast, mountain gaps and passes, and along the ridgelines each afternoon/evening. In addition, a burst of offshore wind is forecast tonight into Monday morning for the SF Bay Area and the North Bay, increasing the risk for nocturnal drying events especially in downslope areas. With near critically dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected, individuals across these areas are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-510- 513>515. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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