Elevated to locally-critical fire weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains and Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Near record heat will expand from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast states into Friday. Read More >
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285 FXUS66 KMTR 232321 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 421 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 101 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Drying trend will continue through Thursday. Renewed chances for rainfall enter the forecast Friday night and linger into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 101 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A quick moving shortwave trough will skirt the California/Oregon border. As this feature treks east, winds become northeasterly behind it, promoting compressional warming and rapid drying. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will continue through tomorrow morning. Northeasterly winds will increase tonight, particularly across the higher elevations of the North Bay and through Altamont Pass. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 101 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A deep upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to trek towards the West Coast Friday. An associated cold front will trigger mentionable PoPs beginning late Friday night over the northern waters. PoPs increase and become more widespread through Sunday morning with the greatest chances in the Bay Area, namely the North Bay. Elsewhere the solution will likely be in the way of drizzle with moisture lingering into Tuesday as troughing continues over the West Coast. The clusters depict an inside slider like pattern as ridging builds over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and troughing digs into the Great Basin Tuesday. The uncertainty when it comes to this part of the forecast is primarily in the location. A farther west solution could result in one of two things: 1. If there is still lingering moisture: beneficial rainfall. 2. If there is no moisture associated with it: increased fire weather concerns. A farther east solution would result in less impacts to the area overall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 421 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Dry weather with VFR continuing through the 00z TAFs. The ACV-SFO pressure gradient is 6.3 mb, while SFO-SAC and SFO-WMC are currently onshore 4.3 mb and 1 mb however these will switch over to offshore directed tonight and Thursday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Northwest to west wind 10 to 15 knots decreasing to a light west wind tonight and Thursday morning. West wind 10 to 15 knots Thursday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing and becoming light southeast winds tonight and Thursday morning. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots in Wednesday afternoon and early evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 406 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Breezy to gusty north and northwest winds continue through the weekend. Significant wave heights will build to become rough in the outer waters this afternoon, abate to become moderate tonight through Friday morning with a gradual building trend beginning Friday afternoon with significant wave heights of 10-12 feet expected in the outer waters Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 334 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Near critical fire weather conditions will exist over portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast through at least Thursday due to breezy offshore flow and lower humidity. Surface high pressure is on track to build over E OR/N NV/S ID tonight with low pressure remaining along the CA coast. This orientation will allow for offshore flow to develop. Model guidance initially downplayed the potential for offshore, but yesterday and today guidance suggest offshore from SFO-WMC gradient to be -9 to -11 mb. Not a big gradient, but impactful nonetheless. Local WRF model captures the offshore flow late tonight and early Thursday with NE winds 10-20 mph with gusts 30 mph (locally 40+mph Mt St Helena). Marginal humidity recovery 1,000 feet as well with recovery early in the night then drying late as peak offshore flow kicks in. Offshore gradient eases Thursday day, but low humidity remains. Regions for most critical conditions will be North Bay Mts and East Bay Hills. North Ops GACC also has highlighted the Diablo/Santa Cruz zone for very dry conditions through Thursday as well. MM && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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