Widespread life-threatening flash and urban flooding will continue to pose a significant threat to life and property in south-central Texas. Catastrophic fiver flooding, with rapid rises on small streams, arroyos, and typically dry washes, is expected. Monsoonal showers persist across the Great Basin and Southwest with greatest flash flooding in southern Arizona. Read More >
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556 FXUS66 KMTR 170456 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 956 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions through this evening - Breezy onshore winds through Friday - Gradual cooling and moistening trend through the upcoming weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Lingering stratus around the Monterey Bay has eroded as of this writing, however the cooling trend continues today as a result of increased onshore winds and the deepening mid/upper level trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast. The increased winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening as near critically dry conditions persist across the interior and higher terrain of the region. Wind gusts are expected to reach 25-35 mph in the favored gaps and passes. Please see the Fire Weather section of the AFD for additional details. The marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 feet overnight, resulting in better chances for seeing low clouds develop along the coast and into the coastal adjacent valleys. That said, there is a low probability of mist and/or drizzle late tonight and into Friday morning. Low clouds that do develop will retreat back to the coastline by mid-to-late morning. By Friday afternoon, the cooling trend will continue with temperatures dropping to slightly below seasonal averages. Thus, we are expecting upper 50s to 60s near the coast, upper 60s to middle 70s just inland, and lower 80s to near 90 deg F (the warmest interior spots). Friday night, low clouds are more likely to reach into the coastal adjacent valleys and potentially into the inland valleys as the marine influences become better established. This will also increase the potential for mist and/or drizzle near the coast. However, probabilities are not high enough to include drizzle in the official forecast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) Temperatures will be similar to Friday through much of the weekend with slight day-to-day fluctuations depending on the depth of the marine layer. We continue to monitor tropical and monsoon moisture that is forecast to spread across the Bay Area and Central Coast late in the weekend into early next week. Tropical Storm Elida is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a hurricane by 5 AM Friday (tomorrow). This system is forecast to move out into the open Pacific and not directly impact the region. However, high pressure placed over the Intermountain West this weekend will advect moisture from Elida and monsoon moisture northward brining an increased in mid-to-high level clouds on Sunday and beyond (this the most likely scenario). The lacking ingredient is still instability! Be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast information over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 VFR with stratus developing offshore. HAF is currently the only site where stratus has redeveloped but stratus is expected to expand and move inland overnight. Pushed the timing of stratus arrival to MRY/SNS back slightly as stratus is developing more slowly than models initially suggested. Confidence is highest that stratus will reach HAF, MRY, and SNS overnight with diminishing confidence that stratus will reach STS, APC, OAK, or SFO. For now, left stratus in the TAF for those airports with any potential development occurring much later tonight. Initial model guidance suggests an early return of stratus along the coast tomorrow night. Otherwise, diurnally breezy winds continue but winds should be slightly weaker during the afternoon/evening tomorrow than they were today. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with low confidence that MVFR-IFR conditions will develop overnight. Stratus is attempting to redevelop along the coast but has not managed to push into the SF Bay yet. Model guidance has overestimated stratus development this evening which is decreasing confidence in the extent of stratus coverage overnight. The HRRR continues to indicate SFO and the SF Bay could remain stratus free tonight while OAK sees periods of overcast conditions. For now, left MVFR CIGs in the TAF but confidence is low. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR becoming IFR-LIFR overnight. Stratus is arriving later than initially expected so have pushed arrival times back slightly. Current thinking is that stratus will initially be IFR before lowering to LIFR during the early morning hours. There is some potential for decreases in visibility and fog after 12Z. Confidence is moderate that SNS will clear during the afternoon while MRY`s potential clearing is questionable. Model guidance shows stratus lingering along the coast for much of the day which may keep overcast conditions at MRY through the entire TAF period. Kept the MRY TAF slightly more optimistic with a brief period of afternoon clearing before an early evening stratus return but this may need to be amended. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 956 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Moderate to strong northwesterly winds gradually diminish through the day on Friday. Moderate to rough seas and hazardous conditions for small crafts persist through Friday across the coastal waters. Conditions improve Saturday as seas abate and northwesterly breezes diminish. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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