A couple of frontal boundaries will move east and south from the Plains to the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines. These boundaries will focus showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with scattered severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains and across the Gulf Coast states. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur, which may be welcome news across drought areas. Meanwhile, heat spreads westward. Read More >
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844 FXUS66 KMTR 082016 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 116 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 - Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part of next week - Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the interior early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 (This evening through Saturday) Low clouds have dissipated across the interior earlier than yesterday despite the marine layer sitting around 2,000 feet this morning. As such, temperatures across the interior are forecast to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior, in the upper 60s to mid 70s around the San Fransico Bay Shoreline, and upper 50s to lower 60s in areas that the coastal stratus remains in place (generally near the coast). Tonight, expecting less inland intrusion of stratus as the marine layer compresses and high pressure continues to build in from the eastern Pacific. There is the potential for mist or light drizzle again tonight into Saturday morning, yet widespread measurable rainfall is highly unlikely. We are expecting a few degrees of warming on Saturday afternoon, especially in the interior where we are expecting less cloud cover in the morning. However, most locations across the region will remain in Minor HeatRisk. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) The warming and drying trend will continue through the remainder of the weekend and are forecast to peak on Monday. This is when will see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. However, the moderate risk has less areal coverage compared to yesterday`s forecast. This is as we are expecting weaker high pressure aloft and greater presences of a marine layer early next week. However, Monday afternoon is still forecast to be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the low to upper 90s across the interior, mid 80s to low 90s across inland away from the coast, and low 70s to mid 80s near coastal locations. Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however will still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The cooling trend is forecast to continue through the remainder of next week with temperatures cooling to near seasonal averages as a more zonal flow returns as the ridge shifts eastward. There remains some uncertainty beyond the middle of next week as model solutions diverge. Be sure to check back for the latest developments in the forecast as we head into next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 AM PDT Fri May 8 2026 Marine layer cleared out sooner than this time yesterday at KSTS and South Bay sites but should clear at the remaining terminals by Noon PDT. Expect VFR conditions through this afternoon and much of the overnight except for the Monterey Bay Terminals. The return of stratus later tonight is more uncertain than the previous couple of nights, with low confidence in the exact timing and extent overnight into Saturday morning. Overall, guidance is leaning toward cigs to develop later during the overnight, closer to sunrise with less of a marine layer intrusion expected and weak fetch of offshore flow at around 2kft. Vicinity of SFO...VFR cigs are expected by Noon PDT and should persist through the remainder of today into early Saturday morning. Exact timing of MVFR/IFR cigs is low confidence, with clearing expected by late Saturday morning once they do develop, with VFR expected for the remainder of the TAF period after clearing. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs developing over the Monterey Bay terminals later this evening is higher than terminals to the north. Less influence from weak offshore flow aloft and better more persistent marine layer influence. KSNS is expected to clear sooner with terrain influenced circulation over Monterey Bay helping pull stratus back while maintaining coverage over KMRY through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 8 2026 Fresh to strong northwest breeze continue today and will persist through the weekend as rough seas continue to build. Rough seas will begin to ease later Sunday into Monday in response to winds becoming moderate to fresh northerly breezes. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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