A rare March heat wave is ongoing with much above-normal temperatures over the Southwest U.S. through this weekend. Periods of critical fire weather will persist from the central Rockies to the central and southern Plains through the weekend as gusty winds and low relative humidity continue. A Kona low will continue to bring several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall to Hawaii through Sunday. Read More >
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901 FXUS66 KMTR 212310 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 410 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 - Cooling trend continues through Sunday - Temperatures near to slightly above seasonal averages next week - Dry weather through the 7 day outlook && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1257 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 (This evening through Sunday) Satellite imagery shows high clouds across the Bay Area and Central Coast as a weak cold front stalls over the North Bay into northern California and promotes a slight onshore flow, while the ridge that gave us the last few days of record-breaking heat flattens and moves off the the east. High temperatures today range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s in the interior valleys, the 70s close to the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. These temperatures are still warmer than the seasonal averages for this time of year, but are still a welcome change of pace from the last week. The high clouds will clear through the evening and overnight hours, and a redeveloping marine layer will allow for some patchy stratus in the coastal regions early Sunday morning. Morning lows will take a dip as the lower elevations reach the upper 40s to the lower 50s, with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s in the higher elevations. The cooling trend continues through Sunday with more zonal flow developing in the upper levels, with temperatures maybe a few degrees cooler across the region, but conditions remaining similar otherwise. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1257 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) Conditions remain broadly similar through the next week as zonal flow to slight ridging persist across the forecast region. The inland valleys of Monterey and San Benito Counties remain rather warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s possible Monday through Wednesday. Otherwise, copying and pasting the temperature outlook for Sunday through the remainder of the 7 day forecast will give you a pretty good idea of what to expect. The next chances for rainfall remain beyond the 7 day outlook, and as the previous forecaster noted, extended range model output suggests a chance for a developing trough pushing a weak low pressure system into the state as March turns into April. A closer look at the ensemble model clusters shows an approximate 50/50 split between the model runs that do show a trough heading into the West Coast and those that keep the slight ridging around. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 409 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. Low to moderate confidence on the return of LIFR conditions to HAF, MRY, and SNS. A dying cold front, which can be identified with the high clouds, is moving through the region towards the southeast. This feature will be the deal breaker on whether or not sub-VFR conditions return tonight. Usually cold fronts act to deepen the marine layer and mix the atmosphere, but the weak nature may do little to the marine layer. Onshore winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Low to moderate confidence on LIFR conditions returning to the terminals tonight. Onshore winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 409 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Fresh and strong breezes with gale force gusts will persist through early Sunday thanks to a weakening cold front. Strongest winds will be over the outer waters and near Point Reyes. The strong winds will lead to steep fresh swell. Winds diminish and seas abate early next week then increase again mid week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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