Moisture and nearby frontal boundary will focus more showers and thunderstorms for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Rainfall could be locally heavy resulting instances of flash flooding. Meanwhile, the heat lingers for areas of the Southeast and expands across the Western U.S. the next several days. Between these areas, severe thunderstorms possible for the Plains and Midwest. Read More >
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500 FXUS66 KMTR 061808 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1108 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 - Seasonally cool temperatures through Tuesday before a warming trend arrives for the second half of the week - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents Tuesday through Friday && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Not much to update this morning as far as the forecast goes. A deeper marine layer allowed for coastal stratus to penetrate deeper into the inland valleys early this morning. As such, looking at a slower dissipation of these clouds, especially across the North Bay Valleys. However, clouds are forecast to retreat to the coast by late morning and early afternoon giving way to sunny condition across the interior. Today will remain seasonably cool! No updates anticipated at this time. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 (Today and tonight) The marine layer clouds have come in pretty far inland, coming into the Sonoma County valleys, across the SF Bay Area and into the hills surrounding Livermore, and down the Salinas Valley. Expect extensive stratus development through the rest of the night, as the marine layer sits around 2000 feet deep, followed by gradual inland clearing through the morning and early afternoon while the coastal areas remain socked in. Zoom out to the larger scale and you`ll find troughing to the west over the Eastern Pacific, ridging to the east over the Intermountain West, and we`re stuck in the middle with them. Temperatures remain below the seasonal averages as the marine layer remains in place and breezy onshore winds develop in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures today range from the middle 70s to the middle 80s in the inland valleys, up to the middle 90s in the warmest interior spots particularly in southern Monterey County, the middle 60s to the middle 70s close to the Bays, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Wind gusts this afternoon reach 20 to 25 mph through favored gaps, passes, and the northern Salinas Valley. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Tuesday should feature broadly similar conditions to today, with a stronger afternoon breeze possible as the ridge gradually retrogrades and the pressure gradient tightens. Towards the middle and later parts of the week, temperatures will gradually rise inland as the ridge strengthens and moves into the Desert Southwest, with a particular emphasis on Wednesday through Friday when local temperature gradients range from the lower to middle 60s at the immediate coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys, to the triple digits up to 105 within the warmest spots of southern Monterey County. Afterwards, ensemble model cluster analysis continues to support the ridge axis paring back to the Intermountain West for the upcoming weekend, which would support some subtle cooling, although temperatures will remain near to slightly above the seasonal average. As a final note, long period southwest swell will result in hazardous beach conditions Tuesday through Friday; see the BEACHES section for more information. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Stratus is dissipating across the interior Bay Area but is expected to linger directly along the coastline. Moderate confidence that ceilings will be slightly lower tonight given high pressure building in to the region. Guidance shows a low to moderate chance of IFR CIGs developing at OAK and SFO overnight with slightly higher chances directly along the coast and in the North Bay Valleys. For APC, maintained a more persistence forecast and kept borderline MVFR- IFR CIGs overnight. Winds generally stay onshore with breezy afternoon winds between 10 to 15 knots expected. Vicinity of SFO...Satellite shows overcast conditions clearing out across the San Francisco Bay/SFO. Maintained a tempo through 19Z for MVFR conditions as stratus clears but this may need to be extended if stratus does not clear as fast as originally thought. Expect an early return of stratus this evening with highest confidence in MVFR CIGs and low to moderate confidence that IFR CIGs will develop early tomorrow morning. Breezy onshore winds between 10 to 15 knots are expected during the afternoon/evening today. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus is starting to clear across the southern SF Bay but remains patchy in the vicinity of SFO. Stratus will continue to clear through the remainder of the morning with VFR expected this afternoon before stratus returns this evening/overnight. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite shows clearing stratus within the Salinas Valley while it persists along the coastline. Ceilings return early this evening, starting out as MVFR before lowering to IFR overnight, and will continue into tomorrow morning. Not currently seeing any indications that fog will develop but some reductions in visibility (particularly within the Salinas Valley) may be possible. Breezy northwest winds are expected in the Salinas Valley with winds peaking around 15 knots this afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 929 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Moderate seas persist with northerly winds gradually strengthening this afternoon into the evening. Strong northwest winds will develop Tuesday and are expected to continue into the weekend. In addition to strong winds, expect building rough waves mixed with a low southwest swell. && .BEACHES... Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Navarrete/Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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