Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and portions of Arizona. Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast while building into the Southwest. Overnight lows will be so warm that, when combined with oppressive dew points, little-to-no relief from the scorching daytime highs will be available. Read More >
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149 FXUS66 KMTR 192048 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 148 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 147 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026 - Compressed marine layer today, increases Thursday into the weekend - A gradual cooling kicks off Thursday and continues into the weekend - Elevations above about 1000 feet will have warm temperatures and RH values in the teens Thursday morning and afternoon && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 147 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Little change to the forecast as we shift from quasi-ridging to more zonal flow in the upper levels over the next day. An upper level low will slowly advance towards the West Coast, nudging the Desert Southwest high slightly eastward. This will allow a cooling tend to start on Thursday, in addition to the marine layer deepening and onshore flow increasing. The marine layer should get to 1000-1200ft by Thursday morning, leading to another night with wide spread stratus, patchy fog, and patchy coastal drizzle. Elevations above the marine layer, wont` be as lucky and will continue to be warm and dry above it. Clouds begin to clear by early to mid morning, with the stratus retreating to the coast by late morning. High clouds look to return to the forecast tomorrow which should leave us with partly to mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 147 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) The upper level low continues to track towards the West Coast, with the trough elongating southwards and the shortwave or closed low moving towards the PacNW by Saturday. Troughing holds over the region through early next week, which will lead to temperatures being anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees below their seasonal normal. Stratus looks promising each night through at least Saturday morning, with the marine layer potentially compressing Saturday night into Sunday morning. Models suggest it could deepen again Sunday night into Monday morning, which may lead to more widespread stratus. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026 A mix of IFR/MVFR conditions this morning with high confidence of stratus to retreat to the coastline late this morning and more so by this afternoon. This will give way to VFR conditions this afternoon across inland TAF sites. Increasing onshore flow will persist throughout the afternoon and early evening hours before diminishing late evening. Stratus and reduced visibilities return first around the Monterey Bay terminals and then across the Bay Area terminals late in the night and into Thursday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt through the early evening. Low to moderate confidence in the return of stratus tonight with some models suggesting the low cloud cover will remain confined over OAK. However, opted for IFR/MVFR ceilings over the terminal due to persistence and LAMP guidance. However, this will need to be monitored closely throughout the night. Onshore winds increase Thursday afternoon with similar clearing time as today if not a bit earlier. SFO Bridge Approach...Low to moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings to return early Thursday morning. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR, giving way to VFR by late morning into early afternoon. Onshore winds increase this afternoon with moderate to high confidence of IFR conditions returning late this evening and lowering to LIFR late in the night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 147 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026 Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes with strong gusts across the northern outer waters and along the coastal jet regions will bring hazardous conditions for small craft periodically through the weekend. Breezy fresh winds are expected across the San Pablo Bay and the San Francisco Bay with locally stronger gusts possible where terrain promotes wind funneling. Rough seas in the outer waters will subside Thursday with moderate seas prevailing by Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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