Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of South Texas, the western Gulf Coast, and Lower Mississippi River Valley through Thursday. Hot temperatures will persist over central and northern California and the Pacific Northwest through today. Read More >
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222 FXUS66 KMTR 160827 CCA AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 127 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure will remain in place across the area today, bringing similar conditions to Monday. A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep and onshore winds will keep temperatures near the coast slightly below normal, with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Extensive cloud cover within the marine layer this morning will retreat to the coast this afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny skies. Inland, including interior portions of the South Bay, East Bay, North Bay, and interior Monterey and San Benito counties, it will remain hot with highs in the 80s and 90s. Many locations will see Minor HeatRisk, but some areas will experience Moderate HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat- related illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. We continue to emphasize practicing smart heat safety by limiting time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated. Expect moderate onshore winds this afternoon with gusts 10-20 mph, except slightly stronger possible in open areas. The ridge will start to weaken on Wednesday beginning a cooling trend, mainly inland where high temperatures will cool by up to 2-5 degrees. The pattern near the coast will remain similar, with marine stratus in the morning decreasing in the afternoon and onshore winds keeping temperatures similar to today. Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The ridge will weaken further on Thursday as a weak upper level trough off the coast approaches the area. This trough will move across the area Friday and Saturday. However, any showers and thunderstorms associated with this system are expected to remain over the higher terrain north and east of the forecast area, keeping our area dry. Forecast soundings indicate the low pressure system deepening the marine layer with continued onshore winds (breezy each afternoon). This combination will continue the inland cooling trend, with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and along the coast. Weak troughing may continue into Sunday, but by Monday, ensembles generally agree that a ridge will rebuild across the West, with temperatures especially inland trending warmer once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding again and will impact most terminals through the night, with a low to moderate confidence of stratus impacts at LVK. The breezy to gusty onshore pattern winds will continue to diminish and remain light through Tuesday morning. As the stratus retreats to the immediate coast, winds will pick up again with a gentle to moderate onshore breeze across the region. Low to moderate confidence that HAF sees some brief scattering Tuesday afternoon. Some stratus expansion inland is expected towards Tuesday evening, although greater confidence is expected after the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Vicinity of SFO... VFR with a fresh to strong northwest breeze through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move in through the evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on stratus timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the East and South Bay and potentially setting up through the Golden Gate just to the north of the terminal before filling in over SFO. May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that forms will dissipate through Tuesday morning as breezy west- northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Vicinity of OAK and SJC... IFR stratus at OAK at present and will move southwards towards SJC, impacting the terminal within the next couple of hours. Stratus will dissipate Tuesday morning as breezy northwest winds develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus will likely return to OAK sometime Tuesday evening, but stay away from SJC through Wednesday early morning, beyond the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR stratus continues through late Tuesday morning with breezy onshore winds becoming light overnight. A gentle to moderate northwest breeze will develop at the terminals Tuesday afternoon with gusty winds possible at SNS. Stratus will return to the terminals Tuesday evening. Moderate confidence in timing at SNS as the last couple of nights have seen fingers of stratus impacting the terminal around 23-01Z. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Light northwest winds continue through the night with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will shift back to southerly tomorrow afternoon for the northern inner waters and the southern waters. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters tomorrow and Wednesday, bringing rough seas to the region. Otherwise, seas remain slight to moderate into the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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