Arctic air lingers for the east, however, winds will slowly subside and a slow moderating trend starts during the week. Moisture continues to provide rainfall and higher elevation snow for the Pacific Northwest, northern California and northern Rockies through Monday. For the State of Hawaii, dangerous surf conditions with strong winds and heavy rainfall will impact the islands through Monday. Read More >
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101 FXUS66 KMTR 081227 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 427 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 - Patchy fog this morning, especially for North Bay Valleys. - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay tonight. - Chances for soaking rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, and again next weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (Today through Monday) Mostly clear skies are being observed across the Bay Area and the Central Coast this morning. As temperatures cool and reduce dew point depressions, fog is starting to develop being patchy in nature from the East Bay Valleys down the Salinas Valley and more areas of fog development in the North Bay Valleys. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but webcams will be monitored through the morning. After daybreak, the added sunshine will help mix out any lingering fog my mid morning. Partly cloudy skies will remain out ahead of the next system to the North, but mostly sunny skies are expected for areas south of the Bay Bridge. Temperatures will increase into the mid 60s for the Bay Area (upper 50s to low 60s along the coastline) and a chance for low 70s in southern Monterey County. No major changes to the forecast regarding the rain chances today. The shortwave trough is still expected to pass over southern Oregon keeping the higher precipitation totals there and in the northern California. The (20 to 40 percent) chance for area in the forecast area will mainly be in the North Bay with only a couple hundredths or rain possible late this afternoon and evening. Any chance for a sprinkle south of the North Bay is less than 10 percent. Cooler air will filter in behind this wave. Temperatures tomorrow morning will be a degree or two cooler than this morning, with another chance for patchy fog. Similarly, high temperatures will also be slightly cooler on Monday than today, but still remain a couple degrees warmer than seasonable norms. No precipitation is expected to start the work week. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 126 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (Monday Night through Saturday) The next upper level low will drop southward over the ocean and move over the California Coast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Model runs are trending wetter with this system compared to earlier in the weekend. With precipitable water amounts trending just under an inch, there is a good chance that coastal areas could see about or just over a half an inch of rain, with some coastal higher elevations around an inch. While there will still be a difference in amounts with coastal areas seeing more, traditional rain shadowed areas could still even receive over a quarter of an inch of rain. Lastly, models are suggesting a potent 120+kt 300 mb jet will company this upper level low providing some synoptic lift enhancement. However, the Euro is suggesting the core of the jet would arrive over the Central Coast whereas the GFS is slightly more north toward the Bay Area. While CAPE values are not overly robust, model sounding are showing a strip of shallow, skinny area of instability. While confidence is not high, there is a slight chance for thunder Tuesday night. While the details may still be tweaked, it looks like a widespread soaking rain is in store for the Bay Area and the Central Coast midweek. Cooler air advection with this upper level low will help provide more seasonable normal temperatures across the area by the middle of the week. Weak ridging is expected Thursday in to Friday for a brief respite from the rain. Models are showing fairly good agreement in another system expected to move in over the weekend. While models are disagreeing on the specific timing and strength of the system, many ensemble members are suggesting that this system has a higher chance for a widespread soaking rain than the midweek system. And with colder air filtering in aloft, snow levels are expected to drop below 5,000 feet. How low they will go and whether or not the peaks of some of the higher terrain could see a dusting remains uncertain. But morning low temperatures this weekend could drop down below 40 degrees for some of the interior valley locations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 427 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 Areas of stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ mainly over the northern coastal waters closely correspond to an area of surface to near surface cooler air drifting into the Bay Area this morning. A mainly clear sky is assisting with nocturnal radiative cooling to saturation forming areas of stratus and fog over the coastal waters and land. Recently light onshore winds have also helped to transport stratus and fog to the coast and inland. Patchy stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ over the north Central Coast has so far been slow to develop, where it is currently outside the aforementioned near surface cooler air at ~ 1000 mb level. Overall conditions remain favorable for stratus and fog through daybreak until late morning (and afternoon) when increasing diurnal surface warming and mixing favors VFR. For tonight and early Monday a cool front will move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays resulting in an increase in stratus ceilings /IFR-MVFR/. High resolution model output does show some post frontal drying taking place later tonight and Monday morning, though likely still leaving at least a mix of patchy stratus and fog /IFR-MVFR/. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails so far, with little in the way of stratus seen on satellite imagery along the San Francisco Peninsula. Conditions favor at least partial stratus formation through daybreak, a tempo group for BKN IFR ceiling is forecast 13z-17z today. Otherwise it`s VFR today into either early or mid evening, currently advertising a return of stratus /MVFR/ ceiling 04z this evening. West wind 5 to 10 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus /IFR/ is occuring from KOAK southward along the Bay Shoreline to KNUQ. Similar to SFO, conditions are favorable for at least partial stratus formation closer to KSFO and in the approach through daybreak. Otherwise it`s VFR today into either early or mid evening, model output shows stratus /MVFR/ ceilings returning in advance of the incoming cool front arriving tonight and early Monday. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Stratus /IFR/ is occuring from KOAK southward along the Bay Shoreline to KNUQ and at times periodically forming to the south at KSJC. Conditions are favorable for additional patches of stratus and/or mist/fog. Otherwise it`s VFR today into either early or mid evening, model output does show stratus /MVFR/ returning in advance of the incoming cool front arriving tonight and early Monday. Monterey Bay Terminals...Ongoing nocturnal cooling will likely help produce patches of stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ through daybreak. There may be some advection of nearby newly forming stratus and fog to the Monterey Bay Terminals as well through daybreak. Tempo groups are in the 12z TAFs 13z-18z today, otherwise VFR from late morning through the afternoon. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ ceilings return as early as 03z (or possibly earlier) in advance of the incoming cool front tonight and early Monday. Light and variable winds becoming onshore near 10 knots in the afternoon and light and variable tonight and early Monday. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 326 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 A cold front currently 400 miles northwest of the Bay Area will move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays tonight and early Monday. Seas will continue moderate today. Northwest winds will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today into Monday. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM....DK AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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