A prolonged, dangerous heat wave will persist through the Independence Day weekend across the Ohio Valley, Mid-South, and East Coast. Severe thunderstorms are expected to produce damaging wind gusts from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and across the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and heavy rain is also possible across the Great Plains. Read More >
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832 FXUS66 KMTR 040457 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 957 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 - Marine layer will remain in place each day, retreating to the coast each afternoon. - Minor warming through Independence Day with near-normal temperatures. - Brief cooldown early week, followed by renewed warming for the second half of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Stratus is beginning to build inland with the clouds coming into the Petaluma Gap, the Golden Gate into Berkeley, and the Monterey Bay region, with further expansion expected through the night. With the Independence Day holiday tomorrow, people planning to celebrate with fireworks or outdoor cookouts should remember their fire safety, obey any local burn bans, and keep a fire extinguisher nearby when playing with fireworks or cooking with open flames. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) An exceptionally ordinary July day is on tap weather-wise for the San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast. We woke up this morning with the usual marine stratus blanketing majority of the area, including inland North Bay and East Bay valleys, and have progressed through the morning with an expeditious mix-out. Forecast highs will be about as close to normal as they can be for early July: 50s and 60s along the immediate Pacific Coast, 70s to around 80 along the San Francisco Bay shoreline, and 80s to around 90 for interior locations. All in all, a great weather day for the region. This week`s persistent troughiness over Western North America has started to weaken as an upper-level ridge develops over the Four Corners region. Locally, this will result in a few degrees of warming from yesterday to today, and perhaps an additional few degrees of warming for interior communities on Independence Day. HeatRisk for the holiday will remain in the Little/No (green) category along the immediate Pacific Coast and Minor (yellow) for the San Francisco Bay shoreline and interior locations. If you have travel plans elsewhere in California for the holiday weekend, HeatRisk throughout the Golden State will predominately be Minor (yellow), with a few exceptions for the hottest deserts with Moderate (orange) HeatRisk. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) The Four Corners upper-level ridge further strengthens for the second half of the weekend. For Central and Northern California, we should remain displaced enough to see any impactful influence as a weak shortwave and vort max will knock temps back by several degrees on Sunday. Monday will be largely a repeat with minimal day-to-day changes forecast. By the middle and end of next week, ensembles migrate and strengthen the upper-level ridge towards the Desert Southwest, which will result in renewed warming for much of California -- minus the coastal locations that will benefit from the marine stratus. Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both favor increased chances of above-normal temperatures for much of the Western United States as we dive deeper into July. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Widespread VFR lasts into the night. Winds increase across the region into the afternoon becoming moderate to breezy. Winds will reduce into the night, becoming light for most areas into Monday morning. Cloud cover returns to the Monterey Bay and HAF into the late night with MVFR CIGs. This cloud cover erodes into the mid morning on Monday, leading to widespread VFR again. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy west winds build into the mid afternoon with gusts around 22kts expected. Gusts cut off into the night and winds reduce slightly. Expect winds to become light into early Monday with breezy west winds returning that afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the night. Expect moderate winds to build in the afternoon across the area with gusty conditions affecting SNS. Winds reduce into the evening as come low clouds begin to flow through the area. MVFR CIGs fill over the terminals into the late night. These CIGs look to erode into late Monday morning at SNS and slightly beyond the TAF period for MRY. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 854 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will shift slightly allowing winds to diminish through Monday. Locally hazardous conditions will persist over the northern outer waters through early Sunday due to fresh to strong breezes. Sunday and into Monday gentle to moderate breezes are expected. More widespread stronger winds and seas will build starting Monday night and continuing through the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...MKK Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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