Active spring pattern across the center of the nation with several rounds of severe thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. The regions under the greatest threats are the southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions with dry fuels are aiding in wildfires across the western High Plains and the Southeast. Wind and some snow for northern Rockies. Read More >
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679 FXUS66 KMTR 251113 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 413 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026 - Scattered showers bringing drizzle/light rain today and tomorrow - Below normal temperatures this weekend before a warming trend kicks off early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026 (Today and tonight) Stratus is making its way across the Bay Area with some potential for patchy fog to develop across portions of the North Bay Valleys and along the coast early this morning. Looking farther out to sea, a mix of mid and high level clouds associated with an incoming upper level low pressure system are drifting towards the coastline. Broad upper level troughing continues over the Western US with a weak upper level low moving inland over the Central Coast this morning. As the low moves inland, it will bring scattered showers to the marine environment and Bay Area/Central Coast. The initial surge of moisture looks more promising tonight than it did last night with PWATs between 0.6" to 0.8" across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rain totals are still expected to be light, ranging from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch, but it may be a different story for the coastal mountain ranges. Orographic lift can generate locally higher precipitation totals across the Santa Cruz Mountains, East Bay Hills, and the Santa Lucia Range. Totals are likely to be highest across the Santa Lucia Range where there is a higher moisture content over a longer period of time. The higher terrain of the Santa Lucia Range could see between 0.1-0.2" in the most likely scenario. Under the 90th percentile, a reasonable upper end amount should the showers overperform, the higher elevations could see up to 0.5" of precipitation. There is a non-zero chance for thunderstorms on Saturday with the current forecast showing a 3-5% chance during the afternoon/evening hours. Thunderstorm chances don`t look too promising given a more stable environment and very low (<100 J/kg) surface CAPE across the region. Outside of rain and thunderstorm chances, temperatures will be below normal this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the region Saturday and again Sunday. The higher elevations will be even cooler with some of the higher peaks lingering in the 40s to low 50s throughout the day. If you live in the higher elevations or the interior Central Coast, expect cold mornings Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures for these regions will be in the upper 30s to low 40s while the rest of the region stays in the low to mid 50s. No major wind concerns with this system given the more southerly orientation of the upper level and low level jets. Winds do strengthen during the afternoon/evening across the higher terrain and mountain gaps/passes but gusts will peak between 25 to 35 mph. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Drizzle to light rain from scattered showers and below normal temperatures continue into Sunday before rain chances diminish heading into the afternoon. Similar to Saturday, there is a non-zero (5-6%) chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening but confidence in their development remains low. Heading into next week, we can expect a return of warmer and drier weather. The upper level trough will start to progress eastward and weak ridging will attempt to build in early to mid-week while a cut-off low moves into southern California. This will allow for a gradual warming trend through the first half of the week. Inland temperatures will warm into the upper 60s on Monday before returning to the low to mid 70s on Tuesday through Thursday. By late week, a more substantial warming trend is expected as ridging rebuilds over California. Inland temperatures will creep back into the mid to upper 70s on Friday with a few pockets of low 80s possible across the Central Coast. Warmer temperatures continue into next weekend with CPC guidance maintaining above normal temperatures heading into early May. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Generally MVFR-low end VFR conditions prevail underneath a wide layer of higher clouds as seen on the satellite imagery. Although ceilings are expected to lift slightly through the post-sunrise hours, the high cloud cover should keep the region from scattering out and ceilings are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light showers are expected to develop this afternoon and persist through the night, but these showers should remain non-convective and not result in major impacts to the flight conditions. Breezy southwesterly winds will develop in the afternoon, diminishing overnight. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-low end VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will pick up from the west-southwest this afternoon before diminishing overnight, with lower confidence in the wind pattern starting Sunday morning. Light showers will develop in the afternoon and persist through the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-low end VFR conditions through the TAF period with southwesterly winds picking up in the afternoon. Chances for showery rain develop later this morning and persist through and after the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 413 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Expect mainly moderate west to northwest breezes and moderate seas through the early part of next week. Drizzle and light rain remain in the forecast, favoring the southern waters and areas along the coast this weekend. Strong northwest breezes and rough seas return towards the middle of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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