Strong to severe thunderstorms may bring areas of excessive rainfall and flooding over parts of the southern Plains today through Friday. Hot to dangerously hot temperatures are forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest and southern Great Basin today. Gusty winds, dry, and hot conditions will bring critical fire weather to parts of central Washington state today. Read More >
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441 FXUS66 KMTR 101846 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1146 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 238 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A slight cooling trend starts today for the more interior areas Otherwise expect a continuation the daily patter of marine layer clouds each night and morning, some coastal drizzle, a few pockets of fog, and breezy onshore winds each afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 238 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 The overnight forecasting team did some extra polishing into the short term forecast. The fog/drizzle/ and cloud cover forecast have been finely tuned and adjusted as the marine layer continues to dominate the coast and the slightly inland. Patches of fog will favor the North Bay valleys as well as the coast through the late morning. Brief moments of drizzle will also be possible along the immediate coast and around the Monterey Bay. So fairly similar morning conditions as the last few days, but the pattern does begin to change today. The slight ridge pattern is turning into a more zonal upper level pattern. What does that mean? I`m glad you asked. It means the upper level environment will start moving to a more direct west to east flow over the west coast, leading to more onshore flow. It also means today will be cooler for the more interior areas that haven`t been seeing those strong pushes of low level clouds from the marine environment. Don`t expect it to be a robust cool-down, as most of the interior areas are only seeing a few degrees difference. For areas along the coast and affected by the marine layer, don`t expect much in the way of change. A cloudy morning, with some clearing in the afternoon and then back to cloudy in the evening. It`s very much the summer stratus pattern giving the "June Gloom." The change to zonal flow will expand the marine layer, allowing it to flow deeper inland, but looks to reduce the concentration of moisture within the marine layer, allowing for some areas to see cloud cover to clear sooner. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 238 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 The upper-level pattern will continue to promote onshore flow well into the long term forecast. This will continue the cooling trend for the more interior areas, as well as the cloudy coastal and valley conditions. A weak trough looks to move through the area over the weekend, allowing the marine layer expansion to continue. This will result in the cloud layer levels rising through weekend, and less chances for fog. After that, the longer term models are struggling to figure out what to do with the post-trough environment. Some models are hinting at a quick transition into a ridge pattern in the middle of the next work week, leading to another warming trend, while others stay more zonal, which keeps our current trend. This will be something worth checking back in as the forecast continues to develop! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .AVIATION...The forecast will be the timing of the status of the stratus as the forecast has been and will be on repeat. Tended to trend with observations from today and yesterday for timing of arrival and departure respectively, assuming we have a similar marine layer depth. Expect IFR to MVFR cigs at most sites, with interior locations like KSJC and KLVK clearing the fastest, followed by North Bay terminals. IFR cigs may get low enough to drop vis MVFR at times. Vicinity of SFO...Medium to high confidence in the SFO forecast as the stratus pattern looks similar to what we saw yesterday, perhaps slightly stronger for stratus remaining socked in to the east at KOAK. Expect to have MVFR conditions hold through the period, with the chance for clouds becoming BKN for a period this afternoon. This will be short lived as the westerly feed of stratus is strong. Models generally struggle to capture this, with the HRRR, GLAMP, and NBM supporting this. Guidance seems supportive of potential clearing to some degree tomorrow afternoon between 18Z and 0Z. Though stratus looks to make yet another return after that. SFO Bridge Approach...The approach should fair better than the vicinity of SFO as we can see the stratus mixing out over the southern portion of the bay. The stratus line appears to be holding right around the vicinity given the continuous westerly flow. Expect similar conditions to yesterday where visuals will be short lived. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus will continue to hug the coast with clearing expected around Santa Cruz and the north part of the Bay. KSNS should see some clearing as well this afternoon based on persistence forecasting and satellite imagery. Unsure if MTR will be so lucky, opted to try and trend towards some VFR conditions with a TEMPO this afternoon. Otherwise expect MVFR to IFR cigs, and reduced vis with the low cigs. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 238 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail through the forecast period with gale force gusts possible beginning Wednesday afternoon along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Significant wave heights will be moderate today, building to become rough tomorrow. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...KR MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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