Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threats will persist from the Midwest to Lower Great Lakes through Monday, shifting into the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians Monday evening into Tuesday. Mid-summer heat will continue across much of the CONUS this week, with record highs possible well into the 100s across the south-central High Plains. Read More >
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235 FXUS66 KMTR 100710 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1210 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions in the higher terrain Monday - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning - Cooling trend through Thursday will bring well below normal temperatures - Up to a 10% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 (Today and tonight) Upper-level shortwave troughing developing off the West Coast Monday will kickoff the cooling trend. The 1,000 foot marine layer will likely remain steady, at least initially, with drizzle possible in the mornings. The aforementioned troughing will result in an increase of onshore flow with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon/evening through gaps/passes and across ridgelines. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain coming off the heels of very hot and dry conditions. Minor coastal flooding is expected during the highest high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) A reinforcing trough Wednesday will bring widespread below normal temperatures and deepen the marine layer. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that heights and subsequently temperatures will fall through Thursday as it digs. An increase in monsoonal/sub- tropical moisture is bringing a low (up to 10%) chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms with ingredients seemingly only marginal as of now. Best chances look to be Wednesday through Thursday and would likely favor the far southern and eastern parts of the area as the conveyor belt of moisture stays between troughing to the west and ridging to the east. While confidence is low, this would be a high-impact scenario with gusty outflow winds and the potential for new fire starts. It`s going to be a fair fight going into the weekend between a reinforcing trough off the West Coast and a rebuilding ridge across a majority of the rest of CONUS. The official forecast has a slight warming trend into the weekend, most noticeable across the Interior Central Coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Currently VFR except for KHAF and the Monterey Bay terminals. Expect primarily onshore flow, however offshore eddy`s are complicating the inland push of the stratus, producing short windows of local offshore flow. Should see MVFR/IFR ceilings materialize after midnight and persist through at least late morning. Vicinity of SFO...Offshore eddys should continue to complicate the exact timing of MVFR/IFR ceilings until after midnight. Given the uncertainty of how much the eddys will impact how well organized the marine layer is, maintained late morning clearing instead of early afternoon indicated by some guidance. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings have developed over both terminals and will persist through late morning with breezy onshore flow. VFR through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening with MVFR/IFR stratus ceilings returning near sunset. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 929 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds will persist through the middle of the week with rough seas up to 12 feet over the northern outer waters and occasionally the inner waters north of Point Reyes. The San Pablo, Suisun Bays and the Delta will continue to see gusty onshore winds through early Monday evening. The long period southerly swells around 15 seconds will continue through much of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions persist Monday across the higher terrain due to an increase in onshore flow on the heels of very hot and dry conditions. Slow improvement is expected with temperatures still 10 degrees above normal and minimum relative humidity of 15%- 30% Monday afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph can be expected through gaps/passes and across ridgelines; namely, the Delta, Altamont Pass, Pacheco Pass, and Interior Mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties. Moderate overnight recovery is expected Monday night; however, the highest terrain of the Central Coast will likely remain poor. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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