Dangerous heat will build across the Southwest U.S. through the end of the week with daytime highs of 110-115°F. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley today. Read More >
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466 FXUS66 KMTR 262042 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 142 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 140 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the shallow marine layer through Thursday - Seasonably warm and very dry conditions continue above 1000 feet and the far interior through Thursday - Pattern change Friday into the weekend brings cooler temperatures and increased potential for tropical moisture && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 140 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Coastal stratus and fog retreated to the coast as of late morning giving way to mostly sunny skies across the interior. Meanwhile, smoke from the Timber Fire and newly developed Plaskett Fire continue to move toward the northeast as 500 MB winds are southwesterly. Today is forecast to be the warmest day of the week with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the interior and up to 107 within the warmest regions of southern Monterey County. The shallow marine layer and continued onshore winds will keep conditions cooler near the coast and across San Francisco. A gentle to moderate onshore breeze develops in the afternoon and evening hours with gusts of 20 to 35 mph at the coast, through gaps and passes, and within the favored valleys. Tonight, much less confidence in stratus and/or fog development late in the evening and into Thursday morning as the region remains between a trough of low pressure off of the Pacific Northwest coast and high pressure over the Four Corners region. Thursday, we are forecasting an increase in mid/upper level moisture to advect northeastward across the region from the remnants of Tropical Storm Iselle. Thus, have added a 15% probability for rain showers across the Central Coast, South Bay, and East Bay for Thursday afternoon. The probability of thunderstorms remains extremely low, but cannot be ruled out as there is some MUCAPE (insatiability aloft) forecast by several CAMs and deterministic models. However, cannot rule out gusty and erratic winds in and around any virga (rain not reaching the surface), sprinkles, or light rain showers that are able to develop. See the FIRE WEATHER section below for more information. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 140 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) PWAT values approach 1.25" and increase to greater than 1.50" by Friday morning lending to a greater potential for wetting rains. Have extended the 15% probability for rain showers to include the Bay Area and North Bay from Friday morning through Friday afternoon. However, widespread wetting rains (greater than 0.10") is unlikely. The approaching trough will also result in a cooling trend with temperatures dropping to below seasonal averages. The increased PWATs decrease as the aforementioned trough shifts inland by Friday night and lower to around 0.50" by Saturday night. This feature will also lead to a tightening pressure gradient which would lead to breezier winds Friday and into the weekend. Gusts are currently forecast to reach between 25 to 35 mph along the coast and through favored gaps, valleys, and passes. Zonal flow develops over the weekend holding temperatures steadily below normal. Another reinforcing trough develops off of the Pacific Northwest coast by Monday, allowing afternoon temperatures to be some 10-20 degrees below seasonal averages. The current forecast has the potential for rain showers returning towards the middle of next week. However, this is heavily dependent on the evolution of conditions over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Thus, confidence is very low at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Clear skies and light winds expected over most of the Bay area with some stratus sitting off the coast. Cloud cover is not anticipated to arrive until early Thursday morning with IFR/LIFR ceilings developing across the North Bay terminals. At the moment, models are showing the Santa Clara Valley without a ceiling due to a compressed marine layer. However, there remains a chance that a thin layer of clouds (IFR) could approach KSJC (similar to this morning). Trends will be monitored. Vicinity of SFO...Light NE`ly winds this afternoon will return to the typical NW`ly breezes in the next couple of hours. Predicted wind gusts up to 25KT are forecast with VFR forecast to prevail through the TAF period. However, there remains around a 5-10% that an IFR ceiling may develop early Thursday morning from 10Z-15Z. At this time, this should be before the AM push, however, there does remain uncertainty with the exact timing, should ceilings develop. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR to potentially LIFR ceilings are set to develop early Thursday morning. However, there remains a potential that ceilings may struggle to advance inland due to the compressed marine layer. Model guidance this afternoon shows increased mid and upper level moisture arriving through the day on Thursday. At this time, measurable rainfall at the surface is unlikely, however, the high based nature of SHRA may result in gusty and turbulent winds below cloud base. The potential is greatest beyond the current TAF set and later forecasts may need to include VCSH. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 140 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue today into the weekend with moderate wind driven seas. Occasional gale force gusts in the outer and inner waters are expected through the weekend. A long period southerly swell will build late in the week becoming 17-18 seconds by Friday and persist through at least early Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1209 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Not much has changed in terms of the fire weather threat, with near critical fire weather conditions persisting in the higher elevations above 1000 feet through Thursday due to warm and dry conditions. Overnight humidity recoveries remain poor to very poor within these areas and the impact of the marine layer inversion leads to temperatures warmer than the seasonal average, especially within the Santa Lucia range and the interior Central Coast where temperature are running as much as 15 to 20 degrees above the seasonal average. Model output suggests that an offshore flow has set up over the Big Sur coast at the 925 mb level, supporting the risk for overnight nocturnal drying in the interior Central Coast and particularly surrounding the Timber Fire. Last night I had noted that the southwest winds seemed to bring in more moist air into the Santa Lucia range, and that the overnight diminishing of winds when combined with the offshore push led to an unusual situation where the maximum daily relative humidities took place during the day. This remains the case, up until the ridgeline parallel to the Big Sur coast when the southwest winds begin to downslope and dry the region. Unfortunately there aren`t a lot of weather station in these areas to verify the conceptual model. Smoke transport from the Timber Fire will continue to peak in the afternoon and evening with the plume spreading towards the Salinas area. Friday into the weekend, a pattern change should allow for some relief as an upper level trough comes into the region bringing cooler temperatures and a deeper marine layer. DialH && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Dawes MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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