A significant, long-duration winter storm will bring widespread heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the Southern Rockies to New England through Monday. Widespread travel disruptions, prolonged power outages, and vast tree damage is likely. Frigid temperatures, gusty winds, and dangerous wind chills will expand from the north-central US to the Southern Plains, MS Valley, and Midwest. Read More >
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390 FXUS66 KMTR 230541 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 941 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 213 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 - Morning fog across some Bay Area Valleys and around Monterey - Gusty offshore winds across higher terrain of the North Bay late Friday into Saturday - Potential weak to moderate storm system next week around Wednesday && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 The big focus tonight is fog. The high clouds have cleared, allowing for enhanced radiational cooling tonight. The surface dew points are also in the mid 40s to low 50s, plenty moist enough for radiation fog. In addition to the radiation fog forming in the valleys, advection fog is possible from both the marine layer to the west and Tule fog to the East. With this perfect storm of radiation and advection fog ingredients, high resolution models are indicating a high probability of fog and low clouds forming below 1,000 feet in elevation across the Bay Area and Central Coast, particularly along the coast and in the valleys. We will closely monitor the situation and issue dense fog advisories as needed. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 213 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 (This evening through Friday) The closed low that brought showers to the area last night and this morning is spinning further away to the south. An inside tracking low pressure system (inside slider) will quickly dig into Nevada late Friday. As a result, temperatures will not recover and remain around normal, some issues will continue, and north to northeast winds will start to develop. For the low clouds and fog, coverage should be fairly similar to this morning, with the north hills, southern Bay Area, and Monterey areas likely to see some. Visibilities could drop to below 1 mile in some spots. For the winds, speeds will be fairly light through mid-day Friday, then northerly winds will start to pick up. By Friday evening, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will develop mainly over the interior mountains of the North Bay area. The winds will turn northeasterly and spread by early Saturday (see long term section). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 213 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) As the cold air from the insider slider settles into Idaho and Nevada on Saturday, the offshore leaning surface pressure gradients will strengthen. The winds aloft will also become offshore from the surface through and above 10,000 feet, resulting in a deep layer of 25 to 35 knot flow. The combination of this surface pattern and moderate upper level support will allow the winds at the ground to shift to north to northeasterly and expand on Saturday, then persist into Sunday. The winds will affect much of the wind prone areas, but be focused over the northern mountains and hills where wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common, and isolated gusts of 45 mph are possible. The air will also get very dry, but fire weather concerns are low due to the state of the fuels. The offshore flow will shut down by Monday as weak ridging aloft will bring fairly quiet conditions into Tuesday. Some low clouds and fog will likely form over the coastal areas as the marine layer reestablishes itself. Then big question marks start to pop up after that. About half of the ensemble projections show a rain making cold front moving down the coast around Wednesday or Thursday, with some gusty south winds. The other half do not. If it does rain, the amounts will be light as none of the individual runs have anything over an inch. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 939 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 Fog and/or low ceilings are expected at all terminals tonight. The combination of enhanced radiational cooling of the surface under clear skies, marine layer advection from the west and Tule fog advection from the East create a very favorable environment for aviation impacts through the morning hours. Skies will clear in the mid to late morning. Vicinity of SFO...The marine layer is forming, and is expected to advect over the Peninsula with a depth of around 1,000 feet. That`s deep enough to get over San Bruno Mountain and impact the terminal, but may be too deep for dense fog to form at the surface. The most likely outcome is IMC conditions due to ceilings, with possible visibility drops if the wind dies down. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Ceilings have already begun to form at MRY, with an early base of 1,000 feet. These will surely lower and expand to SNS through the late night and early morning hours. Despite the moderate drainage flow at SNS, models are bullish on fog impacts at the terminal. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 939 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 A moderate northerly breeze will increase to strong through the day Friday with near gale force gusts in the NW waters. Seas will build to 8-12 feet across exposed waters Friday through early Saturday. Conditions will improve this weekend with a gentle breeze and moderate seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RK LONG TERM....RK AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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