Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. The strongest storms could produce a few strong tornadoes (EF2+), damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy to excessive rainfall which may results in flash and urban flooding. Read More >
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275 FXUS66 KMTR 062348 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 448 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 - Warming and drying trend beginning today through the early part of next week - Temperatures peaking next Monday and Tuesday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the inland valleys beginning this weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Satellite imagery shows a lingering mid-level cloud deck over Napa County and the eastern fringe of Sonoma County, with scattered cumulus across ridgelines down to the Gabilan Range east of Salinas and clear skies everywhere else. The clouds over Napa County may take a few more hours to clear out, with generally clear skies across the region through the afternoon before stratus returns to the valley regions this evening and overnight. As of the time of writing, there has been no clear signal of a return of the marine layer, but we will continue to monitor the Bodega Bay profiler as it is expected to develop over the next couple of days. The upper level pattern is dominated by a building ridge across the West Coast as the low pressure system that gave us the last few days of gloomy weather has split, with part of the low`s energy moving off into the Plains and the other spinning up a cut- off low centered over the northern half of Baja California. Thus, today will mark the start of a warming and drying trend that -- spoiler alert -- will continue into the upcoming weekend. High temperatures toady will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s across the inland valleys, with highs in the middle 80s possible in the warmest regions of southern Monterey County, the middle 60s to the lower 70s near the Bays, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. The building ridge will cause temperatures to warm tomorrow, generally a rise of a few degrees across most of the forecast region, with the most notable exceptions being the southern Salinas Valley, where highs jump into the upper 80s to the lower 90s, and the vicinity of Santa Cruz where highs rise into the upper 70s. Breezy onshore flow is expected to develop across the region in the afternoon and evening hours, with gusts reaching 20 to 30 miles per hour along the coasts, through gaps and the northern Salinas Valley, and across the ridgelines. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Upper level ridging continues to build through the week as temperatures continue to rise across the region. Thursday night into Friday, the strengthening pressure gradient will contribute to breezier and gustier onshore flow during the afternoon and evening hours, especially along the coast, at the ridgelines, and through northwest-southeast oriented gaps and valleys, where wind gusts could reach 25 to 35 mph. After persisting through the weekend, breezy winds will diminish through the early part of next week as the ridge expands over the state, degrading the pressure gradient. Temperatures continue to rise across the 7 day outlook, with the current forecast showing highs peaking next Monday and Tuesday, as the temperatures reach the lower 90s to near 100 across the inland valleys, the lower 80s to lower 90s along the Bays, and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the Pacific coast. Low temperatures will hover in the 50s for the lower elevations, and will rise into the 60s and lower 70s in the higher elevations. Moderate HeatRisk will develop in the inland valleys and warmer locations along the Bayshore (namely eastern Marin County and southeastern San Mateo County beginning this weekend into the early part of next week. This corresponds to a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for sensitive populations including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic diseases, and people who work or live outdoors without adequate shelter or hydration. Never leave anyone unattended in a vehicle! It is best to avoid being outdoors during the hottest part of the day, but if you must, make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade. Towards the middle and latter parts of the next week, forecast uncertainty begins to increase with an emerging split in the ensemble model runs. Ensemble cluster analysis teases out around a 30-40% chance that a trough will develop and interrupt the warming trend towards the the latter part of next week, with significant differences among the ensemble runs as to what the nature of this trough will be -- shortwave or synoptic, more zonal or meridional flow. This is something that we will watch over the next few days as we interrogate how this event will play out. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 438 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 Currently VFR all terminals, except KHAF as usual. Marine layer lurks along coast and coastal waters. As the sun sets, the marine layer will move inland with MVFR CIGs developing for much of the night. KSTS will have a few hours of potential dense fog early Thursday AM. Mid-morning clearing for stratus on Thursday. Onshore kicks up again with breezy to gusty winds in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...A few clouds in the gap. Expect these to fill in with MVFR CIGs arriving 06-08Z. Timing is lower confidence given some guidance uncertainty. Onshore gusts 20-25kt poss again Thursday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Arrival of low clouds will later than SFO, but still some clouds for the Thursday AM rush. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clouds building along MRY Peninsula. These clouds will expand through 02-03Z with MVFR for MRY. SNS will also see MVFR, but slightly later than MRY. SNS will be gusty up to 20 again on Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1012 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 A building ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue gentle to moderate northerly breezes across the coastal waters this afternoon. Expect increasing northerly breezes by Thursday afternoon that will persist through the weekend with building rough seas, resulting in dangerous conditions for small crafts. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...MM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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