Wildfire smoke will push into the Midwest, worsening air quality. A frontal system brings severe storms from the Northern Plains to the Mid‑Atlantic the next few days. Heavy Gulf Coast rain is possible as Tropical Depression Two has formed, while monsoonal storms persist in the Southwest with heavy rainfall. Hazardous heat expands from the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Read More >
| ZOA CWSU Discussion | KSFO TAF TDA | |
| AWAITING CWSU INPUT | TAF TDA KSFO/KSQL METAR METARArea PIREPs PIREP |
|
| Satellite | Webcams, Ceiling≤030 Prob | |
|
Webcams
|
||
| SIERRA 03 Hour Forecast | SIERRA 12 Hour Forecast | SIGMETs |
| TANGO 03 Hour Forecast | TANGO 12 Hour Forecast | |
| ZULU 03 Hour Forecast | ZULU 12 Hour Forecast | |
| Area Forecast Discussion | Forecast Maps |
|
438 FXUS66 KMTR 192056 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 156 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 - Near or slightly below normal temperatures and higher humidity through the first half of the upcoming week. - The marine layer and mid to upper level cloud cover will continue to help keep temperatures cooler under building high pressure. - Approximately 5% chance of elevated showers with isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Marine layer stratus has retreated back to the coastline as of early this afternoon. Increasing coverage of mid/high level clouds streaming northeast out ahead of an upper level low over the EPAC will continue this afternoon and tonight. Elevated showers can be seen on radar approaching our southern outer marine zones and will continue to remain well off shore for the remainder of today and this evening. However, after midnight, elevated shower activity is possible mainly for the Bay Area and the North Bay through mid- morning Monday. Poor lapse rates and thermal instability will limit the chances for thunderstorm activity. Along with the weak instability, very dry air between 700mb-925mb will likely result in little to no precipitation reaching the ground with only a trace to a few hundredths where any rainfall is measured. Temperatures on Monday will be similar to slightly cooler than todays values with the increased cloud coverage. Expecting a typical stratus intrusion tonight into early Monday morning as onshore flow persists, with high clouds helping to limit some of the radiational stratus cloud top cooling that will result in less mist/drizzle coverage than we saw this morning, and mostly confined to coastal areas. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) Chances for another round of elevated showers with isolated thunderstorms is trending upward. Not currently reflected in the official forecast but subsequent updates may see increases in coverage and intensity by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, mainly across the North Bay and maybe as far south as the Bay Area. The main source continues to be the moisture associated with what will be the remnants of Elida moving north, well offshore of our area by the end of the day Wednesday. Increasing lift, better thermal instability and slightly improved mid-level lapse rates between 7- 7.5 C/km by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night will provide the best chances for elevated thunderstorms and potentially impactful dry lightning. A similar pocket of dry air from 700mb- 925mb will continue to limit beneficial rainfall. A final wave of elevated instability will move into the North Bay once again late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours with potentially improved thermal instability, however less lift and weaker lapse rates, with dry air in the mid-levels continuing to limit precipitation reaching the ground. By Thursday into the weekend, the increased mid-level moisture shifts north and we begin to see drier air aloft with a gradual warming trend into the weekend. However, onshore flow will persist will persist through the extended forecast with typical no- sky-July conditions each night and morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Flight categories continue to improve and over the next 2-4 hours VFR is anticipated at OAK, HAF, and MRY. There is high confidence that MVFR/IFR stratus and BR will make a return tonight into Monday morning. However, the marine layer is projected to compress and this lowers confidence in the specifics. There`s medium confidence that LIFR will transpire at STS and HAF due to a combination of stratus and BR. While some hi-resolution guidance does suggest a threat for visibility under 1/2 mile, confidence remains too low to include at this time. The compressed marine layer will limit the duration of stratus at SJC and LVK is forecast to remain VFR. There is a non-zero potential for elevated showers with largely virga/turbulence, with the greatest chance (~10%) at HAF, STS, and APC. While the current TAF set omits VCSH, inclusion may be warranted in future forecasts as confidence increases. For now, mid- level clouds between FL100-FL150 will stream in overhead. Vicinity of SFO...VFR has returned with diurnal WNW`ly winds in progress. VFR is expected through 07Z Mon, though there`s a potential that MVFR stratus may return sooner than advertised. If this transpires, impacts to the evening push should be anticipated. The compressed marine layer lowers forecast confidence in IFR at SFO, but nearly half of short-range hi-res guidance advertises intermittent cigs below FL010 around sunrise Monday. VFR should make a swift return mid-morning Monday. The potential for elevated showers INVOF SFO is low with the greater chance to the north and west of the terminal. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR anticipated shortly at MRY. Otherwise, diurnal breezes and VFR this afternoon. Stratus returns near/just after 00Z Mon and will initially be MVFR. Roughly 2-3 hours thereafter, ceilings will lower into the IFR category. The compressed marine layer does support the introduction of IFR visibility and LIFR ceilings at MRY around 9Z. This potential isn`t quite as high at SNS, but trends will be monitored. A return to VFR is more probable after the end of the current valid TAF period, unless the inland intrusion of stratus is less than anticipated. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will persist through the upcoming workweek with slight to moderate seas. As tropical cyclone activity continues across the eastern Pacific, long period southerly swell is forecast. While heights for the southerly swell are largely anticipated to remain in the slight category, mixed seas may result in hazardous boating conditions through the week. In addition, there are non-zero chances for high based showers which could result in pockets of gusty outflow winds and subsequent steep seas through mid-week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Near to slightly cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the week with typical diurnal intrusion of the marine layer each night and retreat to the coast each morning as onshore flow persists. However, above 1500-2000ft we`ll see relatively weak thermal belting the first half of the week with continued warm overnights and poor RH recovery at higher elevations. Guidance is trending toward an increasing potential for elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Chances are below 5% in the official forecast but may increase in subsequent updates tonight and Monday. The primary concern is dry lightning strikes across the North Bay, with lesser chances farther south into the Bay Area. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Bain MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
|
| Yesterday | ⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM | Today | |
| 24-Hour Temp Change | 24-Hour RH Change | ||
⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM
 |
|
Additional Links
National Airspace System Status
Other Webcams:
Alert California San Bruno Mountain
Alert California Sutro Tower 2
Alert California Coll of San Mateo Bldg36
Follow us on X
ZOA RSS Feed