Severe thunderstorms will be possible from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Monday. Hazardous heat will linger across the southern U.S. and build across the West through mid-week. Hot and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns for Interior Alaska and the Four Corners region through Monday. Read More >
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533 FXUS66 KMTR 220732 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1232 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast through Wednesday - Minor HeatRisk with below to near normal temperatures Monday - Warming trend with pockets of moderate HeatRisk possible across the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Interior Valleys Tuesday through Thursday, peaking Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 (Today through Tuesday) Stratus continues to build into the valleys this morning, with the marine layer hovering around 1200 to 1500 ft. Upper-level ridging from the Eastern Pacific will build overhead through the period, with the warming and drier trend continuing. Temperatures today will still be slightly below to near normal with highs in the 60s along the coast, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the interior valleys. Heights continue to build into Tuesday, bringing high temps around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today, with a pocket of Moderate HeatRisk possible around San Jose. The marine layer, which is currently around 1200 to 1500 feet, will begin to compress through the period as ridging builds overhead. Expect stratus to retreat back to the coast by this afternoon. Slightly less stratus building inland tonight. The more compressed marine layer may allow patchy fog to develop along the coast and in wind-sheltered valleys this morning with a slightly better potential tonight/Tuesday morning. We continue to highlight a long-period southerly swell that will bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Wednesday. If heading to the coast, stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! For more information, see the BEACHES section. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) While the warming trend is still expected to peak on Wednesday, ridging has been tempered slightly, and projected high temperatures are slightly lower than previously expected. Highs will still climb into the 60s to low 70s along the coast, with upper 70s to near 90 for interior locations. A few pockets of Moderate HeatRisk are still possible, with the best potential near San Jose again. Slightly cooler but still warm temperatures for Thursday with an upper-level trough approaching the West Coast. Highs are expected to be about 1 to 3 degrees cooler from their peak on Wednesday. The cooling trend will become more noted Friday into Saturday as upper-level troughing settles the western US. The marine layer will also deepen with the troughing, and drizzle will be possible, especially along the coast. Onshore winds will increase, peaking Friday into Saturday with a frontal passage, bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph across ridgelines and through gaps and passes. A warming trend is expected to favored to begin by late weekend, but overall confidence is low as there is quite a large spread in model guidance this far out in regards to the progression of the upper trough to the east and ridging trying to creep back in from the eastern Pacific. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 921 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 It`s VFR except for stratus /MVFR-IFR/ along the coastline and locally inland. Onshore winds will continue to usher stratus /MVFR-IFR/ inland tonight and Monday morning. Stratus mixes out to the coastline with conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Monday morning and afternoon. Coastal stratus redevelops Monday night and Tuesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is forecast to return to the terminal this evening. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ prevails tonight and Monday morning with mix out to VFR 19z Monday. Stratus /MVFR/ returns mid Monday evening. West wind near 10 knots tonight, increasing to 12 to 20 knots beginning 19z Monday afternoon, then easing to near 10 knots mid Monday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...For SJC Airport VFR for the evening, then stratus /MVFR-IFR/ overnight then mixes out to VFR 19z Monday. Northwest wind 10 knots tonight to Monday. For OAK Airport stratus /MVFR-IFR/ prevails tonight and Monday morning, mixing out to VFR 19z. West wind 5 to 15 knots. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR/ prevails tonight and Monday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR late Monday morning and afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ returns Monday evening and night. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 839 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Tonight through early Monday morning north to northwest fresh to strong winds continue over the northern outer waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft. For other inner and outer water, north to northwest winds will be light to moderate. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .BEACHES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 14 to 16 seconds will increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the week as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Slagle LONG TERM....Slagle AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Malarkey Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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