Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast. Heavy rain may cause localized areas of flash flooding in the Gulf Coast. Gusty winds and dry conditions may produce elevated to critical fire weather across the northern/central Plains. Record heat is expected in the West. Read More >
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725 FXUS66 KMTR 111627 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 927 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026 - Warming and drying trend will continue through Monday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the interior East Bay on Monday - Gradual cooling trend and unsettled weather midweek through late week && .UPDATE... Issued at 926 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026 The marine layer compressed overnight and early this morning to around 1,000 feet in depth. This has resulted in earlier clearing where stratus did develop and low clouds are highly likely to clear to the coast by late morning or early afternoon. This will allow for interior areas to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s while coastal locations stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s as high pressure over the Desert Southwest continues to strengthen. No updates anticipated for this morning as the forecast largely remains on track. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1226 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge still remains locked over CA, but that will change after today. Let`s first take a look at the marine layer situation. Similar to yesterday we still have a marine layer. You can definitely tell there`s a ridge overhead due to compressed nature and discontinuous coverage of the stratus. Satellite fog product does show decent coverage along most of the coast, but inland coverage is lacking and less than 24 hours ago. Expect some additional expansion through sunrise. Will need to rely on the building May sun angle to help erode the stratus by this afternoon. Not much surface forcing to get rid of it. Regardless, today will be the peak of our little warm spell. 850 mb temps are still on track to be 20-22C, which under ideal conditions would yield max temps in the mid 90s. However, we still have some marine layer influence. The last three days NBM guidance was just too warm across the interior and think today will be the same. Did shave a few degrees from the NBM for today. Max Temps will be in the 60s to 70s coast and bays and 80s to mid 90s far interior. The slight downward trend on temps has now kept Moderate HeatRisk confined mainly to the East Bay interior valleys. By tonight the ridge shifts eastward and gets replaced by an approaching upstream trough. As such, 500 mb heights begin to fall and the airmass cools. The marine layer will develop again and with the exiting ridge coverage will be more and deeper. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1226 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Tuesday will be a transition day as the ridge is to the east and a cut-off low develop off the NorCal coast. Deeper marine layer to start the day and cooling airmass will lead to cooler temperatures with no HeatRisk concerns. Temps will still be still above normal, but trending toward seasonal averages. There was more uncertainty regarding the longwave pattern midweek, but the latest cluster run and ensemble guidance has given a more clear picture. The cut-off low from Tuesday night deepens and then sweeps through NorCal - taking the more northern track. So wait does that mean? Will still have some light rain and/or drizzle in the forecast for the N Bay/ SF/ SF Peninsula late Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Not expecting much in the way of accum. Higher confidence this passing low will bring temps back to seasonal averages. Zonal flow then develops for the rest of the work week into next weekend with dry conditions and moderating temps. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 449 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026 Conditions are a mix of stratus and patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ and cirrus clouds /VFR/ over the forecast area. Patchy light drizzle is possible this morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Areas of coastal stratus and fog /IFR- LIFR/ move inland tonight and Tuesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Tempo /IFR/ in stratus 13z-16z this morning otherwise VFR today. VFR tonight except stratus /IFR/ returns 08z Tuesday morning. West wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus, fog and a few patches of light drizzle /IFR-LIFR/ this morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Stratus, fog and possibly a few patches of light drizzle /IFR-LIFR/ return tonight and Tuesday morning. Mainly west to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 926 AM PDT Mon May 11 2026 Winds have subsided everywhere except the far northern outer waters where occasional strong gusts continue. A moderate to fresh northwest breeze will continue over the waters through midweek. Seas subside but remain moderate with 4 to 6 foot seas through midweek. Winds increase and seas build starting mid-week with gale force winds likely starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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