
Severe thunderstorms which can bring large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible over parts of the central U.S. through this weekend. Thunderstorms with heavy to excessive rainfall moving from Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley through this weekend may produce areas of flooding. Read More >
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183 FXUS66 KMTR 062030 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 130 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - Cooler temperatures continue into the beginning of early next week - Chance for drizzle/light rain late Monday into early Tuesday - Warmer and drier conditions return mid to late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 (This evening through Sunday) A deep upper level low will move into the PNW today. This will bring a cooler airmass and below normal surface temperatures to our region. Temperatures are running between 3 to 7 degrees below normal across the lower elevations and around 10 to 15 degrees below across the higher elevations. Coastal temperatures stay in the 50s to 60s while interior areas stay in the 70s to mid 80s. Seasonally cool temperatures continue into Sunday with high temperatures remaining similar to Saturday. Coastal residents and anyone driving through elevated terrain and mountain gaps/passes may notice gustier winds today. As of noon, most coastal areas have seen gusts between 20 to 35 mph while the higher elevations/mountain gaps and passes have seen gusts to around 45 mph. The SFO-WMC gradient is expected to strengthen to +10 to +13 mb this afternoon with surface winds to remain gusty throughout the day. For the most part wind gusts should stay similar to what was observed this morning but cannot rule out locally stronger gusts across areas that promote terrain wind funneling (the Altamont Pass and San Bruno Gap). Winds ease heading into Sunday as the SFO-WMC pressure gradient relaxes overnight. Breezy winds return along the coast and across mountain gaps/passes during the day on Sunday with the SFO-WMC gradient restrengthening to around +7 to +8 mb. Winds will be weaker on Sunday than on Saturday with gusts peaking between 20-25 mph along the coast and locally stronger gusts across mountain gaps/passes. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) Upper level troughing and seasonally cool temperatures continue into the early work week with drizzle/light rain possible late Monday into early Tuesday. High temperatures stay in the 50s to 60s on the coast and in the 70s across the interior on Monday before a warming trend kicks off Tuesday. As upper level troughing persists, it will bring a good stream of moisture to the West Coast Monday night into early Tuesday. PWATs are particularly impressive for an early summer system with values ranging from 1" to 1.3". As the night shift noted, June is typically the start of our dry season when we typically see no rain. The current forecast shows up to a tenth of an inch across the North Bay and a few hundredths of an inch along coastal San Mateo County and the SF Bay shoreline. Looking at ensembles, models are in agreement that any precipitation will be light and generally less than a tenth of an inch. On the higher end of the forecast, ensembles suggest up to three tenths of an inch in the North Bay Mountains with around a tenth of an inch across the Bay Area. The higher end forecast seems unlikely at this current moment, with most models in support of the most likely forecast. Not currently seeing much thunderstorm potential with this system for MTR`s warning area. MUCAPE values are generally negligible with more likely potential for thunderstorms to the north and south of our service area. The most likely scenario is drizzle to light rain across the North Bay with drizzle extending into the Bay Area/along the coast. Totals will be light but, given that we are now in the dry season, any rain at all is beneficial. Tuesday acts as a transition day with temperatures warming into the mid 70s to low 80s across the interior before a more substantial warming trend kicks off mid to late week. Temperatures will be seasonally warm (60s to mid 70s) along the coast and above normal (mid 80s to mid 90s) across the interior. This is still a ways out but ensemble cluster guidance does support ridging building in mid to late week as upper level troughing moves eastward. There is some potential for gusty northerly winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains Wednesday into Thursday as upper level troughing digs into the Intermountain West. Cluster guidance is in good agreement that ridging will be centered over the Eastern Pacific/extend into the West Coast but it disagrees as to how much the trough will dig/how deep it will be over the Rockies. Any fire weather concerns from this may be semi abated (depending how much precipitation falls) by drizzle/light rain on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Mostly VFR conditions anticipated throughout the day with increasing onshore winds this afternoon and evening. High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail across the North Bay, Bay Area and South Bay through the TAF period with generally less than a 20-30% probability of reaching MVFR conditions. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West-northwesterly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon and evening with gusts between 35-40 kts. Winds will begin to diminish late in the night and into Sunday morning before increasing once again Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO but with weaker northwesterly winds. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase this afternoon diminishing late this evening. Going with more of a persistence forecast for tonight with MVFR ceiling and/or visibilities returning either late tonight and moreso into early Sunday morning. This is when we have between a 35-55% probability of reaching MVFR conditions that are forecast to improve to VFR by 16Z- 17Z Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 858 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Gale force gusts will prevail across the outer and inner waters through early Sunday morning. As a result, very rough seas across the outer waters and rough seas over the inner waters with hazardous conditions for small craft through the remainder of the weekend. However, conditions do begin to improve Sunday with moderate seas and fresh northwesterly breezes for the beginning of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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