Continuation of gusty winds and low relative humidity will bring additional periods of critical fire weather to the southern Plains Thursday and Friday. Another Pacific storm will continue gusty winds and heavy snow over the western mountains into Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening. Read More >
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502 FXUS66 KMTR 190920 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 120 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 - Thunderstorms capable of producing lightning, erratic/gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, accumulating small hail, and waterspouts will be possible this morning with the cold frontal passage - Rain showers and thunderstorms will remain possible in the post-frontal environment - Accumulating snow is possible in the higher terrain, especially for the Central Coast - Cold to very cold conditions return tonight - Hazardous beach conditions for Pacific Coast beaches through Friday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1256 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 (Today and tonight) A gale force low pressure system just outside of our marine zones will continue to strengthen as it approaches the Pacific Coast. The attendant cold front is expected to bring at least briefly hazardous conditions in terms of thunderstorms and wind. The three ingredients needed for a thunderstorm are lift, instability, and moisture. Multiple lifting mechanisms are in place with upper-level support. The instability can be characterized by conditionally unstable low- level lapse rates and low CAPE. Today`s 00Z sounding observed a PWAT value of 0.52 inches (daily mean 0.59 inches) with the moisture confined to the low and mid levels. While not necessary for development, shear is another thing to look at for thunderstorms, especially for severe potential. Forecast soundings have 30 knots of 0-1 km shear, 50 knots of 0-3 km shear, and 90 knots of 0-6 km shear. This environment as a whole can be characterized as a high shear, low CAPE environment: 500 J/kg or less of SBCAPE, 1000 J/kg or less of MUCAPE, and 0-6 km shear of 35 knots or more. This environment will be capable of producing thunderstorms with lightning, locally strong to damaging gusts, accumulating small hail, and waterspouts. Strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the cold front and quickly veer after its passage to become northwesterly. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely across the Pacific Coast and in the higher terrain with 30-40 mph expected in low- lying interior locations. If you must drive this morning: keep your headlights on, keep your cruise control off, leave plenty of following distance between the car in front of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Post-frontal rain showers are expected with a low potential for thunderstorms. Post- frontal clearing will allow for widespread cold to very cold conditions to settle in Thursday night. These conditions will be impactful to people, pets, and plants - please take the necessary precautions for each. Damp conditions will have it feeling colder than the thermometer reads as well as pose the risk for black ice. The warm front associated with the surface low is adding some complexity to the snow forecast; nonetheless, high elevation snow remains possible, especially for the Central Coast where accumulation up to 10 inches is possible. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1256 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Friday will be cold and dry with temperatures well below normal. Rain returns Saturday as a rapidly intensifying storm force low pressure system encroaches the West Coast. Fortunately, it looks to stay in the Pacific Northwest which will keep our region merely on the periphery of it. Still, an increase in rainfall coverage and intensity and wind can be expected. The parent low in the Gulf of Alaska will persist, allowing for the entrainment of tropical moisture in the Sunday into Monday timeframe. Minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas should be expected as a result. There`s a low probability (20% chance or less) of mainstem river flooding; however, if the QPF forecast trends higher and/or the heaviest rainfall sets up over a watershed, probabilities will increase. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026 Spotty light to moderate showers are moving through the area, but shower activity is expected to reduce into the night. Mostly mid- level clouds are moving through the area, but these showers could offer short-lived MVFR CIGs. Winds stay westerly for most of the region into the evening but some areas look to turn more northerly overnight as winds reduce. Shower activity increases into Thursday morning with widespread rain and stronger winds arriving along a front. Gusts will approach 30 kts and above for most areas along the front and rain rates will reduce visibilities. Expect winds to turn westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front. Storm chances will build in the post frontal environment and last into the afternoon. Rain chances reduce that evening, but showers linger into that night. Vicinity of SFO...Shower activity continues with mostly mid-level clouds. Winds turn southwest overnight and reduce, but become southeasterly and breezy later into the night. The next band of moderate to heavy rain arrives int he late night bringing strong gusts above 30 kts form the southeast that will turn westerly as the band moves through. Shower activity reduces behind the rain band, but thunderstorms will be possible. Winds remain strong into the afternoon but will reduce as showers become more scattered. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Spotty showers last through the night with moderate winds turning southerly. The next rain band arrives into the late night and early morning with stronger winds building ahead of it. Gusts will peak above 30 kts and rain rates will reduce visibilities. Winds reduce slightly behind the rain band, but shower activity will continue through the afternoon. Chances for storms will increase behind the rain band, especially in the bay itself and along the Big Sur coast. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 837 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026 Expect light showers to move through the waters with moderate to breezy winds through the night. Winds quickly become strong in the late night with widespread gale force gusts returning as moderate to heavy rains move through the waters. Chances for thunderstorms increase through the early morning on Thursday, but these chances reduce that afternoon. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Rain chances in general exit early Friday, but the next system begins to arrive Saturday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 The following are the record loConfidence on the location and occurrence of thunderstorms is loww temperatures at the long term sites for Friday, Feb 20th. Location Record Low Santa Rosa 26 in 1913 Kentfield 27 in 1913 Napa 27 in 2018 Richmond 35 in 1990 Livermore 27 in 2018 San Francisco 38 in 1897 SFO Airport 36 in 2018 Redwood City 30 in 1933 Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018 Oakland Museum 36 in 2011 San Jose 30 in 1897 Salinas Airport 28 in 1953 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ502- 503-505-508-512-513-528-529. Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ504-506- 510-514>518. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for CAZ517-518. PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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