A storm tracking across the Southern U.S. will bring heavy to excessive rainfall over portions of west-central Texas into tonight then from central Texas through the central Gulf Coast on Friday. The Southeast U.S. will see heavier rain Saturday. While much of this rainfall will be beneficial to the drought, excessive rainfall may bring areas of flash and urban flooding. Read More >
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190 FXUS66 KMTR 301821 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1121 AM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 - Warming and drying trend continues into Friday for areas away from the coast - Overnight and early morning stratus remains in the forecast as the marine layer deepens this weekend - Cooler conditions return this weekend with a chance of drizzle and/or light rain into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Very similar conditions to last night at this time, and very similar night ahead. Coastal Stratus is building along the SF Peninsula and around Point Reyes. This cloud cover will begin to push inland over the next few hours filling around the bays as pockets of fog form in the valleys across the region. Again this is a good indicator of the marine layer staying intact despite the ridging pattern to the north. This ridge has been responsible for the warming trend for the more inland areas, while a cutoff low to the south has allowed for the marine layer stick around and keep the coast on the cool side. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low has been a big factor in the breeziness in the marine environment and the immediate coast. Thursday sees the marine influence keeping coastal and slightly inland temperatures similar to previous days, with a few spots being slightly cooler as coastals stratus lingers into the afternoon in a few spot. The more inland areas not affected by the marine layer will continue the warming trend. Highs in the far interior look to peak in the low to mid 80s, and the coast will stay around 60 degrees, and all the areas in between will stick to the 70s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Coastal cloud cover will linger into the afternoon again on Friday, and the marine layer stays strong, so the coast will stay on the cool side. The beginning of a shift in the upper level pattern will prevent the North Bay from continued warming, with most areas seeing similar highs to Thursday, if not slightly cooler. Other more inland areas will see the warming trend peak expect more areas to break into the 80s and the mid to upper 80s in the far interior with maybe a few spots breaking 90 degrees in southern Monterey Co. The pattern change really goes in effect Friday night as the ridge pushes east and another low pressure and trough builds along the Pacific coast. Higher clouds will build that night, and the reduction in pressure will allow for the marine layer to expand and push farther inland. These factors, along with increasing onshore flow, will allow for a strong cooling trend through the weekend. Along with cooling temperatures, the low pressure looks to move inland over the Bay Area Sunday night. This will start with drizzly conditions early Sunday with chances for scattered light rain possible later that night as the low centers over the region. Light rain and widespread drizzle chances look to last through most of Monday with some potential for the low to slow its momentum and offer precip chance into Tuesday before exiting. While rain chances are good, overall rainfall amounts will be light. Most areas will only see trace amounts to a few hundredths of an inch of rain from this system. Behind it, most models hint at another ridge building quickly in the midweek. Cloud cover will erode, the marine layer will compress, and temperatures will warm again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Coastal locations are holding on to MVFR CIGs with VFR returning to the remainder of the region. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon and persist through about sunset before diminishing slightly. The marine layer is forecast to deepen overnight to around 1,500 ft allowing for a deeper inland penetration of stratus. Thus, IFR/MVFR conditions are most likely late this evening and into Friday morning. The greatest potential for LIFR conditions are in the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and around the Monterey Bay Terminals late tonight and into Friday morning. Fairly high confidence in sub-MVFR with medium confidence in LIFR overnight. Onshore winds increase once again Friday afternoon with inland conditions returning to VFR between 17Z-20Z. Vicinity of SFO...Westerly winds dominate this TAF period with breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon into the evening. The winds should decrease over night and sky cover will begin to transition from VFR into MVFR around 03Z Friday. Moderate confidence that MVFR CIGs will persist around 09Z Friday and remain before mixing out by late morning Friday with the help of increased winds and daytime heating. There may be a few lower cloud decks in the mix around 14Z, but confidence is too low to claim as a prevailing condition. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR conditions will prevail until the evening when MVFR CIGs begin to impact the Bay. Winds will have a NW to W component through the TAF period with the wind speed trend to match that of SFO`s. MVFR CIGs are expected around 04Z though will be slightly higher at times than those found directly over SFO. The stratus deck should clear by late Friday morning. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR at KMRY, while KSNS has returned to VFR. There is medium to high confidence for several hours of VFR conditions at both terminals before MVFR CIGs return early evening. CIGs lower to IFR (40%-80%) and potentially as low as LIFR (20%-40%) late tonight or early Friday morning and persist through much of the morning. CIGs are then forecast to gradually lift and scatter out between 16Z-18Z Friday. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1117 AM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 A fresh to strong northwest breeze continues over the coastal waters into this weekend. Winds will be strongest over the northern outer waters where winds will result in moderate seas building to between 10 to 12 feet. Winds decrease and seas subside by late Saturday with conditions improving through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...RGass/AN MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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