Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic States. Excessive rainfall from heavy thunderstorms may produce areas of flash flooding from southern New Mexico into the western and northern Gulf Coast into Wednesday. Read More >
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072 FXUS66 KMTR 141802 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1102 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1202 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 (Today and tonight) Marine stratus continues to expand over the San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast this early Saturday morning. With the marine layer ever-so gradually deepening over the last few days, interior locations such as Livermore and Concord are finally realizing the marine-cooled influence where temperatures running 4-8 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours ago. By sunrise, expect the classic June stratus for many communities. The eastern Pacific ridge has been the driving synoptic feature for California over the last several days. This will change today as a weak disturbance develops over NorCal, disrupting the ridge`s scope temporarily. While minimal day-to-day changes are forecast along the coast, interior locations can expect several degrees of cooling from Saturday to today. This will result more widespread Minor HeatRisk throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast, with Moderate HeatRisk reserved for the Central Valley and very isolated East/South Bay locations. High tide coastal flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle of the week. Tide levels are forecast to rise up to 2.0 feet above normal into the middle of the week. This increase is driven by multiple contributing factors, including Sunday`s new moon and lunar perigee, ~ 7 inches of tidal anomaly from storm surge and thermal expansion in the Eastern Pacific, and ~ 2 inches of sea level rise since vertical datums were established in the 1980s/1990s. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (which peaked at 2.6 ft), these tides could end up being the highest observed in the summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1202 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 (Monday through Saturday) Eastern Pacific ridge will attempt to re-establish itself on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures in some interior locations may subtly nudge upward as a result, but nothing that reintroduces new HeatRisk categories -- still anticipating widespread Minor to locally Moderate. The ordinary marine status should continue to blanket the usual spots through much of the week. Coastal stratus will return this afternoon persisting to Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Widespread coastal stratus begins to mix out increasing conditions to IFR- MVFR. Winds are generally less than 12 kts from the west to northwest. Afternoon breezes will increase to 12 to 15 kts, especially for the interior valley and eastern terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Coastal stratus has conditions at MVFR to IFR nearby. Stratus will continue to mix out becoming clear by 19Z redeveloping this afternoon around 06Z. Winds from the west northwest at 5 to 15 kts. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR to MVFR conditions at KSJC as the stratus has moved out of the area. MVFR to IFR conditions, but improving, at KOAK. Conditions will continue to improve at KSJC and KOAK becoming sky clear by 19Z. Stratus will lessen conditions to IFR at OAK around 5Z and 11Z at KSJC. Winds from the west northwest at 5 to 15 kts. Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR conditions near KMRY will continue to improve becoming MVFR around 19Z. Conditions at KSNS are MVFR continue to improve becoming sky clear by 19Z. Stratus will return this evening around 04Z. Winds from the west northwest at 5 to 15 kts. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 846 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Expect continued southerly breezes and moderate seas with a low south- southwesterly swell persist across most of the coastal waters. Winds will remain fairly consistent to Monday as the seas subside. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters towards the middle of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508. Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529- 530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...Malarkey MARINE...Malarkey Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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