Most of the U.S. starts the week calm and unseasonably warm. The Heartland will be warmest, with highs 25–30° above average. Only the Gulf Coast stays chilly. Rain today is limited to western Washington while lake effect snow continues east of Lake Ontario. Cooler air returns after Tuesday, bringing a wintry mix to the Midwest and Northeast by Wednesday. Read More >
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066 FXUS66 KMTR 121112 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 312 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 - Dry weather and mostly clear skies prevail through the forecast period - Normal to slightly above normal temps this week - Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches this week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 (Today through Sunday) Cold Weather Advisory in effect for inland locations will expire this morning, and will likely be the last issuance of the week as temps warm under the building high pressure aloft. Now check this out. Doing things differently this morning. For this discussion, I`m considering "short term" to be the current 7 day forecast period, then I`ll discuss a bit more into the future in the long term discussion. This won`t be a normal thing going forward. Just for now since there is really no notable change between days 1-2 and days 3-7. Do you have outdoor chores to do, or enjoy a picturesque sunrise or sunset, or wondering if your outdoor plans are going to hold up this weekend. In short, do the chores, watch the sunset, and your plans are fine. The only thing you should double check this week are beach/surf conditions, should you find yourself there. There is an increased risk for sneaker waves along all Pacific Coast beaches this week, most notably in the early half of the week. Refer to the BEACHES section below for more. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 (Next week) In the extended (looking out further than we normally do just for honorable mention), we`re starting to see signs of this very strong ridge breaking down. Starting around the middle of next week (Jan 21-22), ensemble cluster analysis is start to better advertise some kind of shift in the large-scale pattern. This is still pretty uncertain given that there is still a good deal of spread among member solutions. However, if the pattern does shift more in our favor, a reasonable time window for the next rainfall would be mid-to-late next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 312 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 Localized fog is being reported at STS with LIFR conditions expected to continue through the late morning hours, while mist at HAF persists for around the same time period. High resolution model output is depicting a moderate to high confidence for fog redeveloping at STS tonight, and lower confidence for radiational stratus and fog in the San Francisco Bay and the Santa Clara Valley near SJC. The rest of the region is expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be generally light with offshore flow across the interior valleys and a gentle onshore wind developing in the afternoon across most of the region. Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence of VFR through the TAF period. High resolution model output is depicting some probability for radiational fog to develop this evening and overnight over the San Francisco Bay, but impacts to the terminal are far less certain. Winds will be around 5 knots at strongest, developing from the northeast this morning before backing to a northwest flow in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy drainage winds at SNS continue through the morning hours, otherwise winds remain light with variable to vaguely onshore flow during the day and drainage winds developing overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 A moderate northerly breeze and long period moderate-rough westerly swell will persist today before gradual improvement begins on Tuesday through the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through 6PM PST Monday for all Pacific Coast beaches. A longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ506-510- 516-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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