A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight through early morning. Snow and a wintry mix overnight in the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes can cause hazardous travel conditions. Fire weather concerns continue for a large portion of the central and southern High Plains and Four Corners region this evening. Read More >
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805 FXUS66 KMTR 302340 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 440 PM PDT Mon Mar 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1249 PM PDT Mon Mar 30 2026 - Pattern change today will bring cooler conditions and light rain Tuesday through Thursday - Above normal temperatures and offshore flow return Friday and continue into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1249 PM PDT Mon Mar 30 2026 (This evening through Tuesday) The much anticipated pattern change is underway as seen with mid-to- high level clouds streaming in from a surface low pressure system in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Cloudy and relatively cooler conditions, albeit still above average, can be the sensible weather expected today. The moisture fetch from the aforementioned low is coming from the tropics and will arrive tomorrow. While this may sound juicy, it will still have a dry atmosphere to overcome with little help from weak forcing. As such, light rain showers will produce little accumulation with the Big Sur Coast and Santa Cruz Mountains receiving relatively higher totals with the help of orographic lift. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1249 PM PDT Mon Mar 30 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) The best chance for rain is Wednesday as a gale force low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska heads to the Washington/Canada border. This system will have better support from surface to jet stream and will give us a true frontal passage. Beneficial, light rainfall is expected Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Slick roadways will be possible coming off a four week dry streak, especially in the North Bay given that the trajectory of this system being northwest to southeast. When all is said and done, rainfall totals from Tuesday to Thursday are expected to amount up to 0.25" with up to 0.50" possible in the higher terrain of the North Bay. The Interior Central Coast, Interior East Bay Valleys, and Santa Clara Valley will see a few hundredths at most. Moderate southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front will increase and back to become northwesterly in the post-frontal environment. Gusts of 20-30 mph can be expected with gusts up to 40 mph in the higher terrain. Upper- level shortwave ridging nosing in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean will tighten the pressure gradient and result in northerly (drying) winds on Thursday. As the ridge moves inland Friday, winds will further increase and veer to become offshore. Impactful winds are not expected except in the highest terrain. Upper-level longwave ridging will move in over the weekend, sending temperatures back up to well above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 415 PM PDT Mon Mar 30 2026 VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period. Increasing onshore but relatively light onshore flow will bring some morning stratus and fog along the coastal sites but struggle to develop and penetrate farther inland. Vicinity of SFO...Similar to SFO. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with relatively light onshore winds overnight, possibly becoming breezy at times Tuesday afternoon. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period, however there is a slight chance (less than 20%) of some low stratus/fog development early Tuesday morning. Confidence is too low for mention in the TAF. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1035 AM PDT Mon Mar 30 2026 Moderate northerly breezes will prevail today, backing to become southwesterly tomorrow. Fresh westerly breezes on Wednesday will increase and veer Thursday into Friday to become strong and northerly. Moderate seas will build to become rough to very rough Thursday into Friday. Widespread hazardous conditions will return Thursday as a result. Light rain showers are expected Tuesday morning through Thursday morning. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...JM MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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