Dangerous, record-breaking heat will intensify across most of the central and eastern U.S this week. Heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees. Heat is likely to continue across the eastern U.S. through the Independence Day holiday weekend. Critical fire weather conditions will continue today and likely Tuesday across portions of the Four Corners and northern High Plains. Read More >
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031 FXUS66 KMTR 292136 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 236 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Seasonally cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds persist into the middle of the week - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Wednesday morning along the Pacific coast - Gradual warming trend begins late week and into next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1222 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night) GOES-West visible satellite imagery reveals marine stratus hugging the Monterey Bay shoreline and points south while the vast majority of the San Francisco Bay Area is mostly clear. As of noon PDT, temperatures are generally running within a few to several degrees of what they were compared to this time yesterday. By the time the afternoon concludes, expect temperatures along to coast to peak in the upper-50s to 60s, warming to the 70s to to around 90 for inland communities. All-in-all, a very typical summer day. Western North America has been dominated by a long-wave trough with upper-low centered over the Northern Rockies. This troughing pattern will continue through much of the week with onshore flow prevailing for the Golden State. This will result in the usual marine stratus for coastal communities and near- to slightly cooler than seasonable temperatures inland. While inland temperatures are forecast to rise by a few degrees from Monday to Tuesday, coastal communities may reverse and cool as a result of the continued onshore flow. That said, forecast HeakRisk for the Bay Area and Central Coast will remain in the Low (green) to Minor (yellow) categories through the middle of the week. The risk of minor coastal flooding continues through Monday night along low-lying areas in the Pacific coast and the San Francisco and San Pablo Bays. The combination of thermal expansion within the Pacific ocean, a full moon on Monday, and southerly swell will account for a little over half a foot of surge over the astronomical tide. In addition, long-period southerly swell will continue to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents along the Pacific coast, particularly at south and southwest facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more details. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1222 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday) The long-wave trough will gradually loose its grip over western North America by the end of the work week as a zonal flow re- establishes over the region. This will result in rebounding temperatures by Friday and Saturday with high returning to the 90s for the warmest interior communities. Cluster analysis of the ensembles suggests a building ridge over the Desert Southwest by early next week. There is still some variance in possible solutions, but something worth keeping an eye on for next week. Latest Climate Prediction Center guidance does give increased likelihood of above normal temperatures in the 8 to 14 day outlook. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals with clearing making its way down the Pacific Coast. Moderate to high confidence in IFR-MVFR ceilings developing at bayshore and coastal terminals respectively tonight. Diurnal winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northeasterly flow. Winds will back through the morning to become westerly this afternoon. Moderate confidence on a ceiling returning to the terminal tonight, likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Reasonable best case scenario is a donut hole develops over the terminal with stratus remaining confined on the north and west sides. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach has low probabilities (<30%) for developing a ceiling below FL045. Reasonable best case scenario is clouds remain confined to the terminal and northward. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Currently VFR with southerly flow at both terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing at SJC. Moderate confidence in an MVFR ceiling developing at OAK tonight via a stratus feed through the Golden Gate Gap. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. An otter eddy in the Monterey Bay will add some complexity and uncertainty in clearing times this morning; however, clearing is expected to continue along the Pacific Coast with high confidence in VFR by the afternoon. High confidence in IFR ceilings returning to both terminals tonight. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 236 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Strong northerly breezes will continue through Friday for the outer waters and the coastal jet region of Point Reyes, creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Frequent gale force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters and along the Point Reyes coastal jet region. Moderate northerly breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough to very rough seas will continue through Wednesday before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into Friday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 236 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific Coast beaches through 5 AM Wednesday. Long period southerly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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