Scattered severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall are possible into the night in the Mid Atlantic, and heavy rain will shift to Virginia and the Carolinas on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are also possible in the Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley and the Deep South tonight. Dangerous heat persists across the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley and heat will expand into the Southwest. Read More >
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164 FXUS66 KMTR 210102 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 602 PM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 253 PM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026 - Seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures through early next week - Elevations above about 1000 feet will remain warm and dry && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 253 PM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026 (This evening through Friday night) The marine layer retreated to the coast as expected and high clouds continue to stream overhead. Expect these conditions to hold for a few more hours, before the marine layer and associated stratus begin to creep inland. Models suggest the marine layer is suppose to be around 1000ft tonight, which should limit its expansion into the South and East Bay valleys. Will need to keep an eye on its arrival and the actual footage as the picture from space has indicated a slightly deeper marine layer the past few mornings. Nonetheless, for those that do get the stratus, look for cloudy skies, coastal drizzle, and potentially patchy fog through the morning hours. Low clouds will either erode or retreat to the coast, while high clouds continue overhead. The cooling trend continues into tomorrow, with high temperatures being a few degrees lower than today. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 253 PM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) No major changes to the long term forecast. A stout upper level ridge will remain over the Desert Southwest while an upper low tracks into the PacNW and southwestern Canada. We`ll likely be in some form of weak troughing to quasi zonal flow during this time period, with temperatures cooling through Saturday and then moderating for the rest of the forecast period. Drier air works its way into the upper levels across at least the North Bay, which might limit the stratus up there. Looking towards the end of the period, the strong dome of high pressure tries to slightly build towards us. High temperatures should increase by a few degrees in response to this. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026 It`s VFR except along the immediate coastline stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is beginning to move inland on onshore winds. Onshore winds will usher stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ inland tonight and Friday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late morning and afternoon Friday. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR/ quickly moved to SFO due to robust west wind gusts to 30 knots. Stratus continues tonight and Friday morning, with mix out to VFR forecast 19z Friday. West-northwest wind 20 to 30 knots until 03z this evening then easing to 12 to 15 knots tonight and Friday morning then increasing to 15 to 25 knots Friday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus, fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ and possibly a few patches of drizzle developing tonight and Friday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR Friday afternoon. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Northwest moderate to fresh breezes persists into the weekend with higher winds expected near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Occasional strong gusts are possible across the outer waters and coastal jet areas through Saturday. Wind driven seas remain slight at the coastline and quickly build to moderate across the outer waters through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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