Gusty to high winds and low relative humidity will bring critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions to the central and southern Plains today into Wednesday. Use caution with any potential ignition sources. Two Pacific storms will impact the western U.S. into Wednesday with gusty winds, low elevation rain and heavy mountain snow. Read More >
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914 FXUS66 KMTR 172300 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 300 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 327 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 - High elevation snow continues through the week with the highest snow accumulations over the Central Coast - The combination of cold overnight lows and damp conditions will make it feel even colder impacting people without adequate shelter - Additional storms will bring windy conditions back to the region Thursday - Active weather continues with additional chances for rain into next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 157 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Another active weather day around the Bay Area and Central Coast thanks to a robust cold front passing through the region. Latest surface analysis puts the cold front squarely in SF Bay/S Bay region heading to the Central Coast. The most active weather is ahead and along the front with heavy rain, gusty winds, embedded thunderstorms, and gusty winds. As such, we`re seeing reports of minor flooding, small hail, and additional landslides/rocks/mud on roads. We had a few reports of minor wind damage with gusts up to 60 mph. Widespread showers and rain persist even behind the front. Simply put, if you have to travel this afternoon/evening for a commute be heads up as weather impacts will likely linger. We`ve also received lots of question about snow this afternoon. Today has been finicky to say the least with snow level fluctuations. Lower snow levels earlier in the day have drifted higher and cams even showed a switch over at times to rain or rain/snow mix. This will eat into snow totals for sure. Regardless, still expecting accumulating snow over the highest peaks and left current Winter Weather Adv as is. For the rest of tonight: The cold front will continue to march slowly S and E. Behind the front we`ll still hold onto scattered showers and high elevation snow showers. Winds will be strongest this evening then slowly ease overnight. The bigger impact for tonight will be the temperatures. The airmass is cold and any bit of clearing will allow for the cold airmass to be realized. Given the damp conditions the cold temperatures will feel even colder, especially those without adequate shelter. As such, expanded the cold weather advisory and extreme cold warnings for the Santa Clara Hills, Santa Cruz Mts, and Santa Clara Valley. Black ice could also be an issue in the cold spots that received rain today given temps flirting around freezing. For Wednesday: a cold start to the day. A broad upper trough remains over the region with embedded shortwaves and another upper low therefore lingering showers will remain. Given the colder air aloft cannot rule out thunder. SPC has most of the forecast area in a general mention of thunder. Any developed storm could produce small hail too. Snow levels will be lower tomorrow than today, but the amount of precip will be in question. Snow levels could be as low as 1500 feet over the N Bay and 2500 feet Central Coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 157 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) Early Wednesday night there could be a lull in precip as one upper low exits and another system quickly approaches from the W and NW. One bigger question for Wednesday night will be how cold does it get? There will be some thinning of clouds, but they quickly fill back in. That will likely limit the amount of cool. Therefore, conf wasn`t high enough to cont the Cold Weather Adv or Extreme Cold Warnings. Thursday/Friday: Another active weather day with another round of rain (moderate to heavy at times), chance for thunder/hail, gusty winds, and high elevation snow. No major change from previous rainfall projections: 0.5-1.0" most areas and up to 2-2.5" coastal mts. Wind will not be strong enough for a wind advisory, but still gusts of 20-40 mph and locally to 50 mph seems plausible. As for snow, little bit of a roller coaster with the snow levels rising ahead of the low pressure Thursday. Still thinking accumulating snow over most high peaks in the region. May need to issue additional Winter Wx Adv. Precip tapers off heading into Friday with some clearing as well. Friday morning will likely be the coldest day of the bunch with another round of cold weather products likely. Interesting longwave pattern developing over the weekend as persistent upper trough remains over the region. In the trough a series of upper lows develop and then pivot around each other off the PacNW coast. The associated cold front with this system will bring additional rain back to the region. This will be a warmer system with much higher snow levels too. Last but not least. A potential influx of high PWAT air early next week. Still far out, but some AR guidance suggests a lower end AR. This could have bigger impacts given how much precip we`ve been piling up with this week`s systems. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 944 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 Heaviest of the rain bands moving thru Bay Area as of this 18Z hour, featuring embedded heavier cells with some frqt ltg. Much of this TSRA activity anticipated to decrease through the 21Z hour. Rain rates reduce this afternoon and winds begin to shift slightly more to westerly. Winds look to turn more NW in the evening and into Tuesday night. Rain chances continue beyond the TAF period with another round of widespread showers Wednesday midday. Vicinity of SFO...Heaviest of the rain bands moving thru Bay Area as of this 18Z hour, featuring embedded heavier cells with some frqt ltg. Much of this TSRA activity anticipated to decrease through the 21Z hour. Expect stronger winds and gusts to linger into early Tuesday afternoon with gusts above 30 kts. These winds will reduce slightly into the evening as they turn more westerly and then northwesterly into the night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stronger and gustier SW winds build this afternoon as rain rates increase. Showers become more scattered late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening while winds turn westerly and reduce. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 944 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 Isolated moderate to heavy rainfall over the waters the morning. Strong westerly winds are expected today with gale force gusts expected late morning and into the afternoon. Winds slacken some late Wednesday into early Thursday but quickly become strong again with near gale to gale force gusts returning. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Thunderstorm chances linger into the mid week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 448 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 The combination of spring tides and storm surge are bringing minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected at 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006- 506-508-529-530. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ504-506-512-513-516. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ514-517- 518. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ514-517-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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