Dangerous, record-breaking heat will intensify across most of the central and eastern U.S this week. Heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees. Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast. Critical fire weather conditions will continue across portions of the Four Corners and Great Basin. Read More >
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358 FXUS66 KMTR 301917 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1217 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026 - Seasonably cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds through Thursday. - Gradual warming trend returns Friday and Saturday with overall pleasant holiday weekend weather. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1217 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night) GOES-West visible imagery reveals the marine stratus blanketing much of the Pacific Coast from Sonoma south all the way through Monterey Counties. Communities inland, away from the influence of the stratus, are enjoying the abundance of June solar this afternoon with overall pleasant weather conditions. Temperatures this afternoon will max-out in the upper 50s to near 70 along the immediate Pacific coast, and warming to the 70s to 80s inland. Far interior locations in Contra Costa and Monterey Counties will flirt with the 90-degree mark. With these forecast highs generally running a few to several degrees below late June climatology, the HeatRisk today is solidly low to minor (green to yellow). The main synoptic driver for the West Coast over the last several days has been a persistent long-wave trough that has sagged over the Rocky Mountains. This trough has brought unseasonably un- summerlike weather to parts of western North America. For us locally, the trough has helped reinforce the marine layer along the coast and as allowed for inland areas of California to remain comfortably cool for this time of year. The trough will hang around on Wednesday with similar temperatures for the coast while inland locations cool by a few more degrees. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1217 PM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026 (Thursday through next Monday) The longwave trough will gradually weaken through second half of the week as zonal flow develops over the North Pacific. Temperatures will eventually respond to the rising heights with a gradual warming trend for central and northern California around Friday/Saturday. For those looking ahead to the holiday weekend, HeatRisk for the Bay Area and Central California Coast is forecast to remain low (green) along the immediate coast and minor (yellow) inland. Traveling for the holiday weekend? Even the typical heat-prone areas of California such as the Central Valley and deserts are only forecast to have minor (yellow) to moderate (orange) HeatRisk. Cluster analysis of the ensembles for next week are trying to pick-up on a West Coast ridge, but still observing many possible outcomes of varying strength and location. While the Climate Prediction Center does favor the likelihood of above- normal temperatures of us in the 8-14 day outlook (valid July 7-13), they do keep the slight risk of extreme heat to the east of the Bay Area, focusing on the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026 Stratus will continue to erode to the coast through the afternoon today, with VFR conditions and clear skies at all but coastal sites. Expect breezy onshore winds this afternoon, decreasing this evening and becoming more variable overnight. Coastal stratus will redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning. Ceilings should primarily be MVFR, except local IFR along the coast. A slight uptick in inland extent is expected compared to this morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions through the evening. Moderate confidence in MVFR stratus returning late tonight into Wednesday morning. Expect breezy west winds this afternoon and early evening with gusts to around 25 kt. West to southwest winds 5 to 10 kt overnight into Wednesday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions through the evening. High confidence in MVFR stratus returning late tonight into Wednesday morning for OAK. For SJC, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through Wednesday morning, but there is a low potential for MVFR ceilings to develop. Winds this afternoon and early evening will be breezy from the west to northwest with gusts to around 20 kt. Tonight, winds decreasing and becoming west to southwest at OAK, and southeast at SJC. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus will erode to near the coast this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected at SNS until early evening, when MVFR stratus returns. At MRY, stratus should primarily be located over the peninsula and north of the terminal, resulting in VFR conditions. IFR stratus will return by early evening and persist overnight. Breezy afternoon winds, southwest at MRY and northwest at SNS, decreasing this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1046 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2026 Strong northerly breezes will continue through Friday for the outer waters and the coastal jet region of Point Reyes. This will create hazardous conditions for small craft. Frequent gale force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters and along the Point Reyes coastal jet region through Wednesday, a bit weaker Thursday and Friday. Moderate northerly to westerly breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough to very rough seas will continue through Wednesday before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...Tangen MARINE...Tangen Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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