Record-breaking heat expected in the Central and Western U.S. for the next several days. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions over portions of the Rockies and High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Rain and mountain snow are possible across the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies through Wednesday. Read More >
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913 FXUS66 KMTR 250612 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1112 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 - Slightly above normal temperatures persist into the weekend - Increasing potential for light rain returning early to mid next week - Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains Thursday into Friday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 (Tonight through Thursday) Satellite shows some high level clouds moving over the North Bay with stratus building in across the coastal waters. An upper level trough will push through southern California today which, in combination with a weak cold frontal passage this afternoon, will deepen our marine layer to around 750-1000 ft. There is some potential for stratus to develop along our coast tonight but high resolution guidance suggests the stratus bank will be relatively progressive with cloud cover dissipating almost as quickly as it develops. Temperatures remain cool overnight with lows in the 40s to 50s. Slightly cooler high temperatures are expected today as a weak surface cold front moves through the Bay Area. This will keep interior temperatures in the 70s and coastal temperatures in the 60s. The interior Central Coast continues to be on the warmer side with high temperatures in the low 80s. It is expected to be a dry cold frontal passage with no potential for precipitation across the region. However, it will bring locally gustier onshore winds across the marine environment, the coastline, and across the higher elevations. Winds stay below Wind Advisory criteria but will be between 20-30 mph along the coast and 25-35 mph across the higher elevations. The strongest winds largely remain over the coastal waters where gale force winds are expected. If you are looking to go out on the ocean this week be aware that winds, particularly across the outer waters, will make conditions hazardous for small boats. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Heading into Thursday, upper level ridging redevelops across the West Coast. At the surface high pressure builds in over the Pacific Northwest and gradually spreads into the Intermountain West. The SFO- WMC pressure gradient shifts from positive (onshore winds) to negative (offshore winds) as this occurs Wednesday night into Thursday. The SFO-WMC gradient is forecast to reach -10 to -11 mb on Thursday which correlates to moderate offshore winds. Forecast wind gusts are expected to peak between 30 to 40 mph. Wind gusts will be strongest strongest over the higher elevations with winds peaking along the ridgelines of the North Bay Interior Mountains. Offshore winds bring drier and warmer conditions so expect RH values to drop across the higher terrain on Thursday. Larger fuels are drying but, for now, they remain decently moist from rain over the past few months. Smaller fine fuels (grass) are drying at a faster rate due to the recent abnormally hot weather. The overall fire risk remains low at this time but remember to exercise caution given the drying of fine fuels. High temperatures on Thursday warm by a few degrees but largely stay in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior and 60s along the coast. Temperatures Friday into the weekend will look fairly similar to Thursday but may fluctuate slightly as we get closer in time. Sunday into Monday a deep upper level trough will reach the West Coast and start to push inland. Cluster guidance maintains some uncertainty as to when this trough will arrive. All clusters show the trough just offshore on Monday and Tuesday with it pushing inland closer to Wednesday/Thursday. Rain chances increase starting Tuesday with light rain to return across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is too far out to talk rainfall totals but ensembles are generally supporting between 0.5" to 1.0" of rain next week. Temperatures are also expected to cool down Monday and Tuesday with highs dropping into the 60s to 70s on Monday and widespread 50s to 60s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 939 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. Low probability (20% or less) for sub-VFR conditions to return to the terminals tonight with the exception of HAF which is expected to be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Diurnal winds will prevail with gusty conditions developing tomorrow afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Stratus may begin to sneak through the Golden Gate Gap as early as 09Z, but confidence is low that it will reach the terminal. If a ceiling were to develop, it would likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Strong westerly winds will develop tomorrow, with about a 40% chance for gusts to reach or exceed 35 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. If a ceiling were to develop, it would likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR in the mid-to-late morning hours. Diurnal winds will prevail, with gusty conditions developing tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 939 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Widespread hazardous conditions return tomorrow in the form of strong to near gale northerly breezes. Gale force gusts should be expected across the inner waters and outer waters with bays experiencing conditions hazardous to small craft. Seas will build to become rough to very rough as a result. Conditions will slowly improve Friday and into the weekend with moderate northerly breezes and moderate seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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