Dry and windy conditions will produce dangerous fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains into the Southwest. Severe storms, including very large hail, strong tornadoes, and winds, are expected in the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Heavy late-season snow and record cold temperatures are expected in the northern to central Rockies. Heat is spreading across the eastern U.S.. Read More >
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952 FXUS66 KMTR 171700 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1000 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially across the North, East, and South Bay Mountains along with the Santa Cruz Mountains through Monday - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday - Hazardous marine conditions expected through the weekend - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts && .UPDATE... Issued at 955 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Winds are expected to increase again this afternoon/evening. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 11 PM PDT tonight and continue through 11 AM PDT Monday for the higher elevations of the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and Santa Cruz Mountains. Gusts up to 50 mph are expected across the higher elevations with localized gusts up to 60 mph possible along the highest ridgelines. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 140 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough of low pressure over the West this morning, with one disturbance currently moving across Nevada. In response to this system beginning to shift east, pressure gradients are starting to relax from their earlier peak. At this time, the SFO-ACV is down to -9.5 mbs, while the SFO- LAS is down to 12.6 mbs. Even though it is still breezy out there, gusts are mostly less than 40 mph along the coast. Therefore, have canceled the Wind Advisory to better reflect the current conditions. That being said, the winds will still be a concern over the next 24 to 36 hours though, as another disturbance currently over Western Washington and Oregon dives into the Great Basin later today and tonight. This disturbances has a more traditional inside slider trajectory. As a result, expect another round of dry and gusty winds to develop. This time though, it will be the offshore pressure gradients that increase. North to northeast 925 mb and the 850 mb winds will increase to 40 kts over the North and East Bay after 06z Mon, before spreading south and west through the night. Therefore, have issued a new Wind Advisory focusing on the North, East, and South Bay Mountains as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains for Sunday night through late Monday morning. At this point in time, expect the gusts to be in the 45 to 55 mph range, with local gusts above 60 mph at the favored locations like Mount Diablo. Very dry conditions will accompany these winds, and should a fire start in dry grass areas, the fuels will carry that fire. Therefore, caution is encouraged if you have plans to be working outdoors. One less spark. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 140 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Monday through Saturday) As this the broad trough starts to push east on Monday, high pressure will start to rebuild over California, and be the dominate weather feature through midweek. As a result, a gradual warming trend will develop, especially across the inland areas. Expect some warming at the coast as well, but it will be more moderated, especially once the marine layer re-estabilishes itself by Wednesday. Models start to diverge towards the end of the week and next weekend, with some clusters suggesting another trough forming off the West Coast, while others suggest a flatter ridge, while others suggest the ridge persisting. Therefore, confidences is relatively low on what will actually happen. However, believe the marine layer will likely continue to bring low clouds and fog to the coastal areas. The question is just how far inland that influence will go. Palmer && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 443 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong winds aloft continue to move through the region causing some spotty LLWS concerns into the late morning. Moderate to breezy winds linger through the mid morning but build across the region through the day. The gusty winds over the ocean will lead to an increase in sea spay, causing poorer visibilities over the marine environment and at near coastal sites, such as HAF and around the Monterey Bay. Winds reduce into the night, but remain strong aloft, leading to widespread LLWS both in speed and directions. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy winds increase and become strong into the afternoon with gusts expected to exceed 30 kts. Winds turn more northerly into the evening, with the stronger winds aloft turning more northeasterly into the night, leading to LLWS. Winds reduce slightly deeper into the night and align better with winds aloft. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Sea spray will offer hazy conditions around the Monterey Bay, causing reductions in visibility. Winds increase into the afternoon becoming breezy and gusty across the area. Gust cut off and winds reduce into the night, but stay strong aloft causing LLWS conditions. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 955 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong surface high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the eastern Pacific this week. This will result in widespread strong and gusty northwest winds across the coastal waters. Rough seas continue through late today with up to 19 ft waves during the strongest winds, but seas will ease into the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 443 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong and gusty north to northwest winds continue to affect the region, shifting slightly into Sunday afternoon, and becoming north to northeast. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along through gaps and passes, and across higher terrain. Daytime humidity retentions loos to stay around 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early Monday before diminishing. Humidities will be slow to recover into the work week as a light offshore flow will continue to affect the district. && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-530. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ504-512-514-515. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Storm Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM....Palmer AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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