An arctic cold front will impact the Great Lakes, Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Snow showers and squalls will accompany this system with increasing winds and falling temperatures. Damaging wind gusts may result in tree damage and power outages. Meanwhile, moisture returns for the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii this weekend with both coverage and intensity of rainfall and higher elevation snows. Read More >
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989 FXUS66 KMTR 080051 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 451 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through this evening for Pacific Coast beaches. - Patchy fog Sunday morning, especially for North Bay Valleys. - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night. - Moderate confidence for widespread rain totals 0.2-0.5" Tuesday into Wednesday. - Increasing confidence for additional rain next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (This evening through Sunday) As of 1:15 PM, visible satellite depicts thin high clouds dispersed throughout the Bay Area moving into Central California with some additional patchy altocumulus and mildly hazy skies. As yesterday`s weak upper low has moved southeastward, 500 mb heights are expected to increase slightly, making the marine layer slightly shallower (around 600-800 feet deep) than this morning. Coastal stratus is expected to return back to the coast late this evening with ceilings below 500 feet, slowly moving inland throughout the night. As mid level clouds thin out, cooling in the inland valleys will allow fog to develop at the surface even before the marine stratus reaches into inland areas. Widespread visibility reductions and mist are expected throughout the Bay Area within the marine layer with patchy fog, especially in the North Bay Valleys. Coastal status is less likely in the Monterey Bay as clouds could be shadowed by the Santa Cruz Mountains with Northwesterly surface slow. Radiation fog could still develop in the Salinas Valley as winds will be light. Low clouds partially clear out to the coast late in the morning yielding to briefly partly cloudy skies for the East Bay and south of San Francisco. More widespread and deeper clouds surge into the Bay Area in the afternoon, associated with the weakening front moving southward from the Pacific Northwest. Cloudy skies overtake the Bay Area by evening with a slight (10-20%) chance for spotty drizzle through around midnight. For this system, not much change in the rainfall forecast through Monday: 20-40% chance of measurable rainfall along the North Bay US-101 corridor into Santa Rosa. For totals above 0.10", around a 10% chance for the southern Marin Hills, with increasing chances farther northward, up to 50% chance for the hills north of the Russian River. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1251 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) Partly cloudy skies linger Monday, with the next opportunity for rainfall beginning Monday night as a shortwave trough moves into Northern and Central California. Best chances for widespread light to locally moderate rainfall will occur during the day Tuesday with scattered showers possible Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Models are closing in on a moderate confidence rainfall range around 0.2-0.5" for coastal and valley cities across the region with higher totals possible locally in the coastal slopes. An upper level ridge will create briefly quiet and less cloudy conditions Thursday and Friday with clouds returning Saturday and increasing model agreement on a colder and deeper trough from the Gulf of Alaska to bring another soaking rainfall throughout the region. The NBM brings high temperatures lower elevations into the mid to upper 50s. There remains uncertainty in the forecast though current 850mb temperatures appear cold enough to deliver a dusting of snow to the tallest peaks in Monterey County. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 348 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 Low clouds have retreated to near/off the coast this afternoon and are less extensive than this time yesterday. There is also an extensive area of high clouds moving overhead. Tonight, confidence is high that marine stratus will expand once again towards the coast and gradually move inland under onshore flow. However, models are not quite as extensive with IFR/LIFR conditions as last night, along with a slightly later onset. That said, most terminals in the area will see deteriorating conditions by late tonight or early Sunday morning. Fog/LIFR is most likely near STS/APC with lower chances elsewhere. Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon with a return to widespread VFR conditions. A weakening frontal boundary will bring increased mid level clouds on Sunday. While rain is generally not anticipated aside from light sprinkles Sunday evening, the front will help promote onshore flow and a return of low ceilings. Generally onshore to NW winds this afternoon will become lighter and more variable overnight, then back to W to NW Sunday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions are expected through the evening. Marine stratus will increase along the coast tonight, with high confidence that it will push into the terminal late overnight into Sunday morning. Once again, IFR conditions due to low ceilings are expected, but can`t rule out brief LIFR, along with reductions in visibility from mist. Should see improving conditions by 20-21Z on Sunday. However, conditions may deteriorate Sunday evening. Winds will mainly be WNW around 10 kts or less. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...It will remain VFR through the evening with deteriorating conditions overnight. High confidence that IFR stratus should move into near OAK 08-12Z, but is expected to arrive later at SJC (moderate confidence), closer to 12Z before becoming IFR. Once again, low chances of fog at both sites, but with slightly higher potential at SJC. Light NW winds becoming variable overnight, then back to NW Sunday afternoon. Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore flow may bring brief MVFR/IFR ceilings this evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR tonight, with potential for IFR/LIFR low stratus or fog developing early Sunday morning, although confidence is low. Winds light NW this evening, becoming variable overnight returning to NW Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 348 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 Generally light to gentle north to northwest winds across the waters today, with light west and southwest winds across the norther outer waters through Sunday. Generally moderate seas continue through Sunday with some marginally rough seas in the southern waters through the evening. Fresh north winds off the Coast of Big Sur will diminish to moderate this evening, but strengthen again to a fresh to strong breeze Sunday into early Monday. Winds continue to strengthen and seas build for most of the waters Monday into Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today at all Pacific Coast beaches, through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet. Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Westerink LONG TERM....Westerink AVIATION...Tangen MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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