An arctic cold front will impact the Great Lakes, Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Snow showers and squalls will accompany this system with increasing winds and falling temperatures. Damaging wind gusts may result in tree damage and power outages. Meanwhile, moisture returns for the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii this weekend with both coverage and intensity of rainfall and higher elevation snows. Read More >
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735 FXUS66 KMTR 071228 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 428 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through this evening for Pacific Coast beaches. - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night. - Better chances for rain middle of next week. - Additional rain is expected next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (Today and tonight) Current nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a large swath of high clouds slowly overspreading the Bay Area. Eventually, these high clouds will obscure the view of the low level stratus and fog that has developed over the waters and into the North and East Bays, and Salinas Valley. Many obs around and south of SFO/OAK are showing more of a low stratus layer with ceilings somewhere between 400 and 600 feet. Whereas looking at local webcams in the North Bay, it appears that any dense fog is isolated which prevents the need for an advisory at the moment. However, should conditions continue to deteriorate, it is possible that a Dense Fog advisory may be needed. Other than the increased cloud cover, conditions today should be fairly similar to yesterday. High temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s along the coast, mostly 60s inland, and the chance for low 70s in southern Monterey and San Benito counties. Skies should clear out once again tonight which should allow for another chance for radiative fog in favored valley locations. Sunday`s temperatures should be fairly similar to what is observed today. A weak shortwave trough is expected to move inland over Oregon late Sunday morning and through the day. While the bulk of the impacts will be in Northern California (and points north), the trough should extend far enough south for some measurable (albeit limited) precip to fall in the North Bay. The most recent NBM is a little bullish about timing, bringing PoPs in much sooner than any ensemble suite or hi-res guidance. The forecast was adjusted to keep the (20 to 40 percent) chance for rain in the North Bay today, but likely not arriving until the afternoon. There is still a little uncertainty in how far south the rain will travel. While an isolated sprinkle is possible late afternoon/evening for San Francisco/Oakland, confidence is low. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Despite the lack of rain, increased moisture aloft should increase cloud cover over much of the area Sunday Night through Tuesday morning. While patchy fog cannot be completely ruled out for early next week, the increased cloud cover should help stymie its development. The next trough will swing over the Bay Area and the Central Coast from Tuesday through early Wednesday morning. While it does look like this trough has a better chance for much of the area to receive some rain, modeled QPF continues to trend down compared to previous model runs. Perhaps some higher elevations in the coastal ranges could see a half an inch of rain, but a third of an inch or less is possible for the coastal areas with inland rain shadowed areas maybe seeing a tenth. Cooler air advection will slowly filter in with this trough. High temperatures Tuesday will be more closer to seasonal normals in the 50s and lows in the 40s. There is even a chance for some inland areas to have lows return into the upper 30s by Thursday morning. An upper level ridge is expected to develop over California late Thursday through Friday. Drier conditions are expected with a chance for high temperatures to bounce back momentarily into the low 60s. The next upper level low is expected to move south from the Bay of Alaska on Friday and deepen below 530 dam out over the ocean, west of southwestern Oregon. That low is expected to weaken slightly as it moves over northern California Saturday into Sunday. Models are still showing some disagreement in location, rain amounts, and timing of the system to have confidence in the details. But many ensemble members support that this could be the next chance for a soaking rain over the area. And with 925 mb temperatures expected to drop down to the low single digits with this system passage, highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s, if not upper 30s, are expected next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 A shallow layer of cooler maritime air, stratus clouds and fog /LIFR-IFR-MVFR/ continue to move inland on onshore breezes. Fresh onshore breezes continue to respond to the recently developed SFO- SAC pressure gradient, currently the gradient is 1.1 mb. High clouds are also moving over the area at least partially obscuring the view of stratus and fog on satellite imagery. Stratus ceilings and fog are forecast to improve to MVFR-VFR by late morning. The highest probability of VFR today is during maximum solar heating during the afternoon with carryover of VFR along the immediate coastline to early evening before stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ redevelop. Low to moderate confidence VFR continues at the Bay Area terminals during the evening, otherwise increasing probability of stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ tonight and Sunday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /LIFR-IFR/ lifting to MVFR by 18z today and VFR by 20z. Stratus /IFR/ redevelops late tonight 11z with a low to moderate confidence forecast MVFR ceiling near 18z Sunday. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...High resolution boundary layer humidity forecasts show stratus /IFR-MVFR/ to 18z then mixing out to VFR for the remainder of the morning to the afternoon. Otherwise similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Here too high resolution boundary layer humidity forecasts show stratus /IFR-MVFR/ to 18z then mixing out to VFR for the remainder of the morning to the afternoon. Otherwise stratus ceiling /IFR/ redevelops 07z-09z tonight vicinity KOAK. Low confidence stratus ceiling /IFR/ redevelops vicinity KSJC by the end of the current 12z TAF forecast. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ lifting to MVFR between 16z-17z then to VFR 18z today. Stratus /IFR/ redevelops this evening and is forecast tonight and Sunday morning. Light southeast winds becoming northwest by late morning and early afternoon, winds light and variable tonight and Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 Light to gentle northwest winds prevail across the coastal waters today while light southwest winds develop over the far outer waters north of Point Reyes. Seas mainly moderate through Sunday before slightly increasing early next week. A cold front gradually moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays Sunday and Sunday night resulting in an increase in north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 205 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026 A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today at all Pacific Coast beaches, through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet. Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM....DK AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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