An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of Illinois and Indiana tonight. Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts, and hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter possible. Tropical Storm Arthur will continue to produce strong winds across coastal Upper Texas and Louisiana tonight, as well as potentially life-threatening flooding across southern Louisiana into Mississippi. Read More >
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156 FXUS66 KMTR 180809 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 109 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with temperatures decreasing to below normal. - Warming temperatures early next week with Moderate HeatRisk concerns by midweek in interior locations. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery early this morning indicates low clouds expanding within a 1500-2000 ft deep marine layer, which is slightly deeper than the past couple of days. The stratus will follow a typical pattern today, continuing to expand in coverage early this morning and then decreasing after sunrise before retreating back to near the coast during the afternoon. Patchy drizzle will also develop along the coast this morning. The flow will remain onshore today and increase slightly from yesterday. Winds will be breezy this afternoon and evening, especially near SF Bay and Monterey Bay as well as adjacent valleys where gusts should locally reach 20-30 mph. The marine layer and onshore winds will keep temperatures similar or a degree or two cooler near the coast today, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, generally slightly below normal. An approaching trough will further reduce temperatures inland, decreasing around 5 degrees on average from Wednesday. This will place highs in the 70s and 80s, or around 5-10 degrees below normal in most areas, resulting in Minor HeatRisk. Tonight, expect stratus to fill back in within the marine layer with patchy drizzle redeveloping along the coast. Additionally, north and east of our area, there will be enough moisture and instability ahead of the trough for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Weak elevated instability above the stable marine layer will extend just far enough south into northern Sonoma and Napa counties for a 5% chance of showers and thunderstorms in these areas. Chances for showers/storms will be even lower further to the south. The main takeaway is that while the potential for shower/storm development is very low, we cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across northern areas. The long-period southerly swell will continue to bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through late Friday night. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) The trough off the coast will begin to move onshore on Friday, then linger over the area into the weekend. Weak elevated instability across the north will keep a 5% chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern Napa and Sonoma counties on Friday. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend lower, especially inland, on Friday as the marine layer deepens further and cooler air arrives with the trough. Highs near the coast should remain in the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, and inland should decrease another 5 degrees or so. Temperatures in most areas will remain similar on Saturday, but begin to increase inland by Sunday as the trough weakens. Expect stratus each night/morning with patchy coastal drizzle. Ensembles remain in agreement that a ridge will build across the West early next week. This will bring a warming trend, especially inland, with some interior locations reaching the 90s once again and Moderate HeatRisk concerns by midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding into the valleys and will impact most terminals through the night as the breezy and gusty southwest pattern winds continue to diminish, with low to moderate confidence in stratus impacts at LVK and SJC, where the marine layer is thick enough to bring stratus into both terminals but the lower level southwest flow may inhibit stratus flow into those areas. The night shift will monitor conditions through the night. Stratus should retreat to the coastal areas through Thursday morning and the breezy and gusty southwest pattern winds should resume in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR with breezy and gusty southwest winds at the terminal through the next few hours. Due to the downslope flow, have pushed back the MVFR-IFR stratus impacts to around 10Z. Stratus will dissipate through Thursday morning with breezy southwest winds returning to the terminal in the afternoon. Stratus will return to the terminal area late Thursday night. SFO Bridge Approach... Lower confidence of stratus impacts tonight with the large scale southwest flow, as high resolution models tend to keep the stratus deck away from the approach path. Otherwise similar to SFO. Vicinity of OAK and SJC... IFR stratus through the night at OAK, with breezy west winds diminishing through the next couple of hours. At SJC, the stratus forecast remains low confidence. High resolution model output keeps the terminal area clear, but places scattered MVFR stratus in the vicinity and particularly to the north of the terminal. If stratus does impact the terminal, the most likely timing is from 11-15Z. Stratus clears out through Thursday morning as breezy and gusty winds return to the terminals, with west winds developing at OAK, and southwest winds developing at SJC. Stratus returns to OAK late Thursday night. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR stratus has flowed over SNS and will remain through the night. At MRY, large scale southwest flow has sheltered the terminal from the larger stratus deck, defying much of the high resolution model output, but a patch of stratus developing to the immediate southeast of the terminal suggests that the ceilings are close by. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coast Thursday morning and will return to the terminals Thursday evening. Breezy winds will diminish through the night before resuming on Thursday afternoon with strong gusts and a turn from a southwest wind at MRY and a northwest wind at SNS. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 958 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 West to southwest winds driven by a weak low pressure system in the northern outer waters will remain gentle to moderate overnight. Winds increase again for the next couple afternoons and evenings with strong breezes anticipated, leading to hazardous conditions for small craft. Light to moderate seas with southwesterly swell will continue into the weekend. Moderate west to southwest winds and moderate seas will prevail over the open ocean into the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 156 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Saturday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through late Friday night. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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