Extreme heat continues today from the central Plains to the lower Mississippi River Valley, over southeast Montana, and from southern California into the Southwest Deserts. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect. Severe thunderstorms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley today into tonight. Read More >
| ZOA CWSU Discussion | KSFO TAF TDA | |
| AWAITING CWSU INPUT | TAF TDA KSFO/KSQL METAR METARArea PIREPs PIREP |
|
| Satellite | Webcams, Ceiling≤030 Prob | |
|
Webcams
|
||
| SIERRA 03 Hour Forecast | SIERRA 12 Hour Forecast | SIGMETs |
| TANGO 03 Hour Forecast | TANGO 12 Hour Forecast | |
| ZULU 03 Hour Forecast | ZULU 12 Hour Forecast | |
| Area Forecast Discussion | Forecast Maps |
|
745 FXUS66 KMTR 272130 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 230 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 216 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 - Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early midweek - Gradual warming starting midweek, with Moderate HeatRisk for interior locations - Elevated fire weather threat across the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week - Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the end of the week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 216 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night) Pleasant conditions persist this afternoon across the Bay Area and Central Coast. 24 hour tendencies in temperatures indicate most areas are running anywhere from 1-4 degrees lower than this time yesterday. While the stratus footprint has dwindled to the San Mateo coastline, persistent onshore flow is likely the culprit for the cooler conditions. As troughing continues on Tuesday, we`ll contend with another period of onshore flow. There`s some uncertainty with regard to the inland extent of marine stratus, but overall, mostly sunny skies are anticipated late morning and into the early afternoon on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 216 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday) Wednesday will be the start of our warming trend. The region will be on the backside of the aforementioned upper level trough with the Pacific Southwest Ridge projected to gradually expand westward Wednesday and into Thursday. While another compact upper level wave will move eastward onto the Oregon Coast late Thursday, it`s impact on our weather seems to be an increase in the winds over the marine environment thanks to the development of several coastal jet features. This, in theory, could help induce upwelling which may promote marine stratus development. However, forecast soundings from traditional NWP along with cross- sections from the PG&E/SJSU WRF indicate the marine layer compressing to under 1000 feet (potentially lower through the end of the week). As such, infiltration of marine stratus should be limited spatially and at a minimal if at all. If stratus does develop, it`ll likely dissipate rather quickly by mid to late morning. This promotes moderating temperatures, particularly across the interior and poor to moderate humidity recovery (30-50%) at elevation. More intel on this in the fire weather section below. Temperature wise, guidance remains in fair agreement with moderating conditions on Wednesday and into the weekend across the Bay Area and Central Coast. We still maintain some very diffuse troughing aloft on the synoptic scale, but the ridge expands more noticeably Thursday and into the weekend. Confidence has increased that the ridge will expand sufficiently enough to compress the marine layer, particularly across the Central Coast where the areal extent of Moderate HeatRisk increases quickly. There`s still a chance that current MaxT forecasts may need to be trended upward across interior sections, but likely only on the order of 1-3 degrees. Across the Santa Lucia and Galiban Ranges, pockets of Major HeatRisk enter the forecast with some on Wednesday, but especially Thursday and into the weekend. Those recreating across this region should ensure they are adequately hydrated with plenty of water and have access to shade. Moderate HeatRisk becomes most expansive Thursday and into Friday across the remainder of the Central Coast and this is when the potential for more formal heat products increases. While there`s strong consensus for hot conditions across the interior, coastal regions, including the population centers, model forecasts exhibit a much more significant spread. For instance, the KSFO MaxT interquartile ranges from the mid-60s on the low end to low to mid-80s on the high end Thursday and into the weekend. What will likely modulate just how hot it gets for coastal locations will be onshore vs. offshore flow. 925mb flow in the deterministic guidance starts to diminish especially Friday and into the weekend. As flow drops below 10 knots, there`s the potential for a large degree of variability in direction and should a given location experience periods of either very weak onshore flow or offshore winds, MaxT will likely verify on the higher end of the spread. In the case of KSFO, mid-80s would be nearly 10-15 degrees warmer than normal. For now the forecast currently resides on the warmer end of things through at least Thursday, but additional adjustments will be made as we venture closer to mid- week. Regardless, it`ll be important for those across the area to remain hydrated with plenty of water, stay cool and limit strenuous outdoor activities to the cooler portions of the day. Never leave kids or pets unattended in vehicles! In addition, if headed to our Pacific coast beaches for relief, be mindful of the increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Widespread moderate onshore breezes (10-20 kt) prevail through the afternoon and ease by sunset. Coastal sites and SFO have a high chance of experiencing gusts in excess of 18 kt this afternoon. Lingering clouds should dissipate no later than noon, except at HAF where they will linger until ~22Z today. Model guidance tends to be in agreement on a very shallow marine layer tonight of less than 1000 feet. Therefore, low confidence on how far inland it will push. Highest confidence for IFR-MVFR ceilings is at our coastal sites (HAF, MRY, and SNS). Depending on how warm SJC gets today, the bay- land temperature contrast may be strong enough to develop a land breeze overnight. Some models have hinted at the possibility, but considering the winds will be light and the trend from the past few nights, confidence is low at this time so the TAF was left with a predominant NW flow. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the afternoon with moderate westerly breezes. SFO will have another round of gusts around 30 kt today. Medium confidence on stratus arrival tonight as low-end MVFR ceilings may arrive between 09-12Z Tuesday and linger until ~18-19Z tomorrow. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR anticipated shortly at MRY and then VFR forecast to prevail through 05-09Z Tuesday. Gusty onshore flow ramps up between 19Z-21Z with peak gusts in the 20-22 knot range. The general model consensus is for MVFR/IFR cigs to re-develop over the bay and infiltrate both sites by sunrise Tuesday. Confidence is low to medium on the exact timing thanks to the slightly compressed marine layer. The earliest arrival time for intermittent stratus would be 05Z Tuesday at MRY and closer to 10Z Tuesday at SNS, several hours later than climatological norm. Trends in satellite will be monitored as earlier cloud development (or later as it has been lately) across the bay may necessitate bumping the onset time up earlier. Confidence is high that VFR will return at SNS before the valid end time of the current TAF set. At MRY, confidence in a return to VFR isn`t as high, but ceilings should transition from IFR to MVFR after 15Z Tuesday. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 947 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Fresh northwesterly breezes increase to strong today, persisting through the week with frequent gale force gusts along the Big Sur and Point Reyes coastal jet regions. Moderate seas build to rough in the outer waters by tomorrow and continue through the week. Distant tropical cyclones continue to send long period southerly swells our way through the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 The elevated fire weather threat will persist across portions of the area through mid-week. Overnight RH recovery will remain moderate at locations at or above 2,000 feet with values around 40 to 50 percent. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre-dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH will remain critically dry with values between 20 and 40 percent, with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align. && .BEACHES... Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Distant tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific will continue to generate 16-18 second (long-period) southwesterly swell which has reached the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the primary concerns. Breaking waves can reach up to 12 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Saturday afternoon. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bain LONG TERM....Bain AVIATION...Navarrete/Bain MARINE...Navarrete FIRE WEATHER...Bain BEACHES...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
|
| Yesterday | ⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM | Today | |
| 24-Hour Temp Change | 24-Hour RH Change | ||
⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM
 |
|
Additional Links
National Airspace System Status
Other Webcams:
Alert California San Bruno Mountain
Alert California Sutro Tower 2
Alert California Coll of San Mateo Bldg36
Follow us on X
ZOA RSS Feed