Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of South Texas, the western Gulf Coast, and Lower Mississippi River Valley through Thursday. Hot temperatures will persist over central and northern California and the Pacific Northwest through today. Read More >
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022 FXUS66 KMTR 160500 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 (This evening through Tuesday) Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the extensive marine stratus and fog deck has mostly retreated back to the coast as of early this afternoon. Any lingering stratus inland should retreat to the coast over the next hour. The stratus and fog will build again this evening with similar coverage from this morning expected tomorrow morning. SPC RAP analysis shows the eastern part of a ridge encompassing Western CONUS. This ridge will build over the region maximizing tomorrow. With the ridge building over our area it will lead to increasing temperatures. The ridge is only expected to strengthen slightly (H5 heights going from around 590 dm today to around 592 dm tomorrow). This slight increase in H5 heights will only result in a 1-4 degree increase in temperatures tomorrow from today. The raw NBM output continues to overdo the temperature forecast within the marine layer (~1500 feet thick based on observations from the profiler at Bodega Bay). Therefor, I have lowered temperatures slightly over the next couple of days. After the adjustment, high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s and 90s across the inland areas and in the 60s and 70s across the coastal areas. HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged with widespread Minor HeatRisk and localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk (including the southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior portions of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within the Central Coast, including Pinnacles National Park). Remember to practice smart heat safety by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated. Tidal flooding will continue across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. Last night`s high tide reached a water level of 1.97 feet above normally dry ground, or 7.81 feet MLLW (observed at 11:18 PM on Sunday), which breaks the record for the highest water level observed during the summer season (outside the winter storm season of November to March) which was previously set the night before, on Saturday evening. The next high tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:02 AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 (Wednesday through next Monday) Ridging will continue to dominate the region on Wednesday, but will begin it`s weakening trend. Due to the weakening trend temperatures are forecasted to be a degree or two cooler than on Tuesday. By the end of the workweek the aforementioned ridge will continue to weaken and progress east/southeastward with a trough moving into the Eastern Pacific and influencing our region. The base of the low pressure system is currently expected to move through our region during the upcoming weekend. This low pressure system will result in a cooling trend across the area allowing for temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages. Afternoon high temperatures are currently forecasted to be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the inland valleys and in the mid 60s to low 70s across the Bays. Rain chances with this system remain confined offshore and in the Sierra Nevada range (east of the forecast area). Global ensemble members are in good agreement that ridging will return to the area by the beginning of next week allowing for temperatures to warm back above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding again and will impact most terminals through the night, with a low to moderate confidence of stratus impacts at LVK. The breezy to gusty onshore pattern winds will continue to diminish and remain light through Tuesday morning. As the stratus retreats to the immediate coast, winds will pick up again with a gentle to moderate onshore breeze across the region. Low to moderate confidence that HAF sees some brief scattering Tuesday afternoon. Some stratus expansion inland is expected towards Tuesday evening, although greater confidence is expected after the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Vicinity of SFO... VFR with a fresh to strong northwest breeze through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move in through the evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on stratus timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the East and South Bay and potentially setting up through the Golden Gate just to the north of the terminal before filling in over SFO. May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that forms will dissipate through Tuesday morning as breezy west- northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Vicinity of OAK and SJC... IFR stratus at OAK at present and will move southwards towards SJC, impacting the terminal within the next couple of hours. Stratus will dissipate Tuesday morning as breezy northwest winds develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus will likely return to OAK sometime Tuesday evening, but stay away from SJC through Wednesday early morning, beyond the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR stratus continues through late Tuesday morning with breezy onshore winds becoming light overnight. A gentle to moderate northwest breeze will develop at the terminals Tuesday afternoon with gusty winds possible at SNS. Stratus will return to the terminals Tuesday evening. Moderate confidence in timing at SNS as the last couple of nights have seen fingers of stratus impacting the terminal around 23-01Z. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Light northwest winds continue through the night with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will shift back to southerly tomorrow afternoon for the northern inner waters and the southern waters. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters tomorrow and Wednesday, bringing rough seas to the region. Otherwise, seas remain slight to moderate into the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Berislavich LONG TERM....Berislavich AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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