An Arctic front will bring widespread snow squalls through Friday from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. Heavy snow rates and strong winds will lead to near-zero visibility and dangerous travel conditions. High winds will continue across the northern and central High Plains through Friday, with wind gusts above 60 mph likely, leading to hazardous travel conditions. Read More >
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503 FXUS66 KMTR 160525 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 925 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Elevated risk for sneaker waves and rip currents at Pacific coast beaches through late this evening - Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the weekend - Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys && .UPDATE... Issued at 816 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 Forecast appears on track with no major updates needed tonight. Some areas of gusty NE winds at higher elevations in the East Bay above 1500 feet or so. Like the past few days, not expecting any of these winds to mix down thanks to a mostly decoupled atmosphere. Still looking like a great weekend for those that want to get outside! && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1204 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 (This evening through Friday) Lingering patchy fog continues as of early this afternoon across the valleys of Sonoma County, West Delta, and portions of the East Bay Valleys but is forecast to mix out here shortly. However, because of this, temperatures in the North Bay and East Bay valleys remain relatively cool and are not likely to reach their forecasted high temperatures this afternoon. However, the Central Coast remains warm where temperatures are likely to reach the lower 70s to upper 70s in the higher train. In these areas, HeatRisk is low for today as cool overnight temperatures forecast tonight will limit moderate levels. Tonight, expecting slightly warmer temperatures compared to previous nights, but by just a few degrees. There remains moderate probability for patchy to areas of dense fog across the North Bay Valleys, West Delta, and East Bay Valleys. Additionally, there may be fog development off of the Santa Cruz and Monterey ci coastlines. Temperatures are largely forecast to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s in much of the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay valleys, and southern Salinas Valley. Elsewhere, low temperatures tonight and into early Friday morning look to be between the mid- to-upper 40s. In the higher elevations above 1,000 ft, temperatures are likely to be warmer as offshore flow persist. In these areas, look for upper 50s to mid 60s for overnight lows. For Friday, we are expecting similar conditions as today, yet a cool down by generally 2-4 degrees. However, similar to today, temperatures may not warm as much as currently forecast in areas where fog lingers into late morning or even early afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 225 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) There hasn`t been much in the way of changes in the mid to long term forecast. The ridge of high pressure narrows into the weekend, and allows for some slight cooling in high temps, while morning lows don`t really see much movement. The orientation of the ridge could allow for a very weak onshore flow at the immediate coast in the late weekend. That, along with a slight easing of pressure shows signs for a return of a very shallow marine layer by Sunday. The marine layer and a feed of Tule Fog could offer some foggy mornings Sunday and into the next work week. However, the lingering dry conditions along with some thermal interference from passing high clouds could limit fog development. So that`ll be something that will need finer tuning as the higher resolution models come into range. The trend of cooling daytime temperatures looks to continue through the next work week, with overnight lows only seeing slight variations. In the long, long-term forecast, models are coming to better agreement on the breaking of our current ridge pattern toward the end of the next work week. A strong trough deepens from the north, with its axis falling well to our east, but it looks to be enough to flatten the ridge over the West Coast. Some model outputs place a weak low or a cold front through the area during this flattening, which could bring some rain. It won`t be heavy rain by any means according to these models, but other models are placing the weak low much farther inland, which could mean stronger offshore winds and increased dry conditions. This all to say that while the longer term forecast starts to show a slightly clearer picture, there can still be some interesting variations that could lead to very different weather. So be sure to keep checking as more updates roll in! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 925 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 High pressure continues to result in mainly offshore winds. North to northeast winds will be periodically breezy to gusty in the Bay Area hills and mountains. VFR continues in the 06z TAFs except for areas of hazy conditions reducing surface (and slantwise visibility especially at sunset/sunrise) visibility to MVFR. Patchy fog /VLIFR- IFR/ also developing tonight and Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mainly light wind. SFO Bridge Approach...Slantwise visibility reduced especially at sunrise/sunset, otherwise similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR except VLIFR-IFR in patchy fog. East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight and Friday morning, winds shifting back to onshore 5 to 10 knots late Friday afternoon. Winds shifting to east to southeast 5 to 10 knots Friday night and early Saturday. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 814 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 Dry weather will continue through early next week. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will result in gentle offshore breezes. Moderate seas will prevail through early next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 328 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026 Hazardous beach conditions continue at all Pacific Coast beaches today. Hazards include sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and large breaking waves. Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves that suddenly surge much farther up the beach than expected, overtaking the unaware. They can sweep beach-goers into the ocean, roll logs and heavy debris along the beach, knocking over or pinning down unsuspecting beachgoers, and can result in cold water immersion, which can be deadly with sea surface temperatures hovering around 55 degrees. Remain out of the water, stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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