Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the southern and eastern US this week, with heavy rain and localized flooding, particularly near the Gulf Coast. Monsoonal moisture will bring rain and potential flooding to parts of the Southwest. Heat and fire weather threats will continue to impact the West. Read More >
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867 FXUS66 KMTR 010505 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1005 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Typical marine layer stratus pattern this week. - 10 percent chance for dry thunderstorms in the North Bay Tuesday night. - Near normal temperatures with a cooling trend late week. - Breezy northwest winds Thursday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 120 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Skies are sunny across the district with a 1200 foot marine layer along the immediate coast. Convection noted this morning remains offshore, well west of the Sonoma coast and continues to move away from our coastal waters. Well to our north up in Trinity county some of the first convection over land associated with the upper low west of Big Sur is starting to initiate and that is being captured fairly well by the CAM models. In terms of sensible weather for the Bay Area its a pretty seasonal afternoon with temps 60s coast, 70s bayside, 80s inland and 90s for the interior hot spots of the Central Coast. For tonight the well defined marine layer along the coast will spread into the coastal valleys once again. With a depth under 1500 feet it shouldn`t spread too far inland. Similar to the last few evenings some coastal drizzle and fog is likely during the evening and overnight hours. For Tuesday the upper low wont move too much but inch closer the coast. Instability rotating around the low will remain focused over the Sierra and mountains of northern California, keeping the best thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain (where Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect) and likely avoiding the Bay Area through at least Tuesday afternoon. Thus expect another sunny and seasonable day for the first of July across the Bay Area with no unseasonably hot temps forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 120 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 About a 10 percent chance that a stray thunderstorm or two could sneak into extreme northern Sonoma or Napa counties Tuesday evening per some of the latest HRRR/HREF runs while even the gfs shows some mucape bullseyes over northern Napa county around 03z Weds. All that being said the most likely scenario is any convection stays north and east of the Bay Area. However, any slight bobble in the location of the upper low could send a vort lobe over mid-level instability further south than currently expected. On Weds the upper low will finally eject and the main flow will turn more westerly, ending the t-storm threat and associated instability. By Weds afternoon weak shortwave ridge will try and build over the Central Coast. Yet another late season trough is forecast to approach the region by Thursday. This one will be more progressive (versus cut-off) with slightly cooler air aloft. Main concern would be slightly stronger westerly winds Thursday afternoon and evening to coincide with any pre 4th of July activities. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal and the marine layer could deepen to 3000 feet or so later Thursday into Friday. Trough axis passes overhead on 4th of July meaning no unseasonably hot temps to contend with mainly 70s and 80s inland. Quiet and uneventful weather forecast through the weekend with a general trough in place at least through July 7th. By around July 8-10th some hints that the Four-Corners ridge could start to expand and build some heat farther northward but confidence remains low to medium given the resiliency of the West Coast trough the last 4-5 weeks. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Coastal stratus is intruding into the North Bay valleys, the East Bay, and the Monterey Bay region with all but the interior terminals expected to see IFR-LIFR ceilings through Tuesday morning. Onshore flow increases Tuesday afternoon and evening, when Bay Area winds will increase to around 15 knots. Vicinity of SFO...Conditions remain VFR at the terminal. The marine layer stratus has reached OAK, but is then expected to wrap around San Francisco Bay before potential impacts to SFO develop. Past experience with similar situations has lowered confidence in timing of stratus impacts with a "sucker hole" seen rather often in this setup. Most likely time frame for stratus impacts is around 12-17Z. Breezy onshore flow on Tuesday afternoon will lift winds to 15 knots or higher. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-LIFR ceilings through Tuesday morning. A light northwest breeze develops during the afternoon and evening, with stratus coverage returning to the terminal sometime Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1004 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Significant wave heights will build early Tuesday morning as northwest winds strengthen and gradually spread across the outer waters through the rest of the week. Winds will be strongest across the northernmost outer waters with winds strengthening to near gale force by midweek. Winds and seas remain elevated across the coastal waters through the end of this week and into the next. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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