Lala will continue to impact Hawaii through the weekend. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, dangerous surf and localized flooding are expected. Thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns from the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic through today. Record heat continues for areas of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Read More >
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146 FXUS66 KMTR 162308 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 408 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Shallower marine layer expected the next few days - Minor fluctuations in temperatures this week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 130 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Water vapor imagery continues to show an upper level trough of low pressure off the California Coast and high pressure over the Desert Southwest this afternoon. As a result, California remains situated between the two, with southwesterly flow aloft. There is quite a bit of upper level moisture over the ocean moving through this flow, so expect an increase in high clouds across the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. Meanwhile, we still have a relatively deep mariner layer lingering along the immediate coast. As a result, coastal areas are still running 2 to 3 degrees behind temperatures at this point yesterday, but inland areas are running slightly warmer, given the earlier clearing time. Either way, most locations across our region are still going to be below normal or right at normal for this time of year. The 12z morning KOAK sounding showed the marine layer around 1800 feet deep, and given the observations this afternoon, doubt it has compressed much if any today. Therefore, expect another good push of low clouds and fog inland this evening and tonight, with similar clear times and temperatures for tomorrow. Palmer && .LONG TERM... Issued at 130 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) The main story for this week will be the battle between the trough off our coast and the ridge to the southwest, and which one will influence our forecast the most. At this point in time, the models are suggesting that the ridge should be the dominate feature for the first part of the work week, with 850 mb temperatures climbing approximately a degree or so each day through Wednesday, before the influence of the trough takes back over for the latter part of the work week and the weekend as it is forecast to move closer to the coast. However, this is where things get interesting. There is a lot of upper level moisture filtering northeastward in the southwesterly flow aloft. We are already seeing some thin high clouds associated with the leading edge of that moisture, but there is a large bulk of that moisture (cloud cover) that is not translucent. Therefore, even through the models are suggesting a gradual warm up across the inland areas, current thinking is that this upper level cloud cover will likely limit day time heating and provide a decent insulting blanket at night. And all of this said is not taking the marine layer influence into account. Therefore, my confidence in an actual "warm up" is not high. In fact, my gut says it may likely be dependent on the day, and how much sun we actually see. Therefore, expect most places to remain at or below normal for the next week, with only minor day to day fluctuations possible this week and through next weekend. Now, you may have also noted that I said this a lot of this moisture is not translucent. In fact, current clean IR band shows what is likely a convective band just south of 25 North and 130 West, so the question is will this moisture get pulled into the flow for us? Maybe, but it does not look likely. There is some hinting at higher precipitable water values upwards of an 1 inch for Thursday and Friday, but any instability with it diminishes as it gets here. Therefore, expect our predominately dry conditions to continue across the region. Palmer && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 408 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 MVFR-IFR stratus lingers across the coastal regions with the rest of the region reporting VFR with high-level clouds. Generally IFR stratus is expected to develop across the inland regions this evening and overnight with some LIFR ceilings possible in favored locations, before stratus retreats back to the immediate coastal regions through Monday morning. Moderate onshore pattern winds will continue through the afternoon and evening hours, turning light overnight before resuming Monday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR ceilings with high clouds through the evening hours with moderate and potentially gusty west-northwest winds. IFR stratus will return this evening with low confidence on the exact timing, although the model output consensus agree on the stratus developing by 09Z. Stratus clears out late Monday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon and a moderate confidence that stratus returns in the evening before the end of the TAF period, with greater confidence in stratus impacts after it ends. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR ceilings will persist at MRY through the afternoon and evening hours with the stratus deck expanding over SNS imminently. LIFR conditions develop overnight with stratus clearing at SNS late Monday morning, while confidence in a scattering of the ceilings at MRY remaining low to moderate during the afternoon and evening hours. Moderate northwest breezes persist into the evening hours, with winds turning light overnight before the onshore winds resume Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 408 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Northwesterly breezes persist with localized fresh gusts across the inner coastal waters. Winds increase to fresh to strong late Monday and remain elevated through the end of the forecast period. Seas of around 4 to 5 feet will build to 7 to 8 feet by mid week. A long period southerly swell around 15 to 17 seconds will continue to diminish through the early work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Expect some nocturnal drying the next few nights as the marine layer gradually compresses. Therefore, expect more widespread fair to moderate recoveries developing over the high elevations, especially in and around the Timber Fire. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM....Palmer AVIATION...DialH MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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