National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Lala Approaching Hawaii; Flash Flooding Risks; Excessive Heat

Lala, may become a hurricane, is expected to impact Hawaii this weekend. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, dangerous surf and localized flooding are expected. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns from the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians continues, with the threat shifting toward the mid-Atlantic later this weekend. Record heat continues for areas of the South. Read More >

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731
FXUS66 KMTR 151749
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1049 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Gradual warming and drying trend Saturday and into next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

No significant changes to the ongoing forecast. Drizzle was most
pronounced in and around the San Francisco Bay Area this morning and
less so around the Central Coast. As such, overnight and into this
morning, reports of 0.01" to 0.06" were measured with ongoing
drizzle anticipated to end around 10 AM or 11 AM this morning. Have
also warmed temperatures by a few degrees for this afternoon as we
expect an earlier retreat of stratus to the coastline giving way to
mostly sunny skies across the inland areas this afternoon.

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026
(Tonight through Sunday)

The region will remain on the eastern periphery of upper-level
troughing well off the West Coast Saturday. Sensible weather wise,
this`ll bring another Fogust day with temperatures well below
normal, clouds in the evenings/mornings with a chance for drizzle,
and onshore flow. Gusts of 20-30 mph can be expected through
gaps/passes and down the Salinas Valley. While the marine layer
remains deep, it doesn`t look healthy on satellite with patchwork
stratus across the region. Diurnal winds will keep smoke from the
Timber Fire out to sea with downsloping (easterly) winds in the
morning and onshore (northwesterly) winds in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)

Upper-level ridging will nose in from the east on Sunday and
ultimately anchor itself across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.
This will result in a gradual warming and drying trend into next
week. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal normals away from
and above the marine layer influence at the coast. As the marine
layer compresses with subsidence aloft, its footprint will become
smaller and conditions above it will become drier. Poor afternoon
daytime relative humidity of 20-30% is expected for the higher
terrain with locally lower values of 10-20% across the Central
Coast. Recovery will remain moderate through the weekend, but by
Monday little-to-none is expected with that trend continuing through
Friday. This will likely lead to seasonably elevated conditions with
rapid rates of spread on any wind-and-terrain aligned starts in
receptive vegetation. The timeframe of most concern will be with the
diurnal sea breeze in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Low clouds and patchy drizzle /MVFR-IFR/ are slowly mixing out
and dissipating otherwise it`s VFR. Low clouds and patchy drizzle
/MVFR-IFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Low clouds /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR 21z today.
Low clouds /MVFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. Low clouds
/MVFR/ mixing out to VFR 18z Sunday. West wind 10 knots increasing
to 12 to 20 knots in the afternoon and evening. West wind decreasing
to 5 to 10 knots tonight and Sunday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR in
the afternoon. Low clouds /MVFR-IFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday
morning. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 931 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze persists into early
next week with localized fresh gusts possible across the interior
waters. A long period southerly swell of about 16 to 18 seconds
will linger through Sunday. Winds increase to fresh to strong
early next week and remain elevated through the end of the
forecast period. Seas subside this weekend before building to 7 to
9 feet mid week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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