Widespread life-threatening flash and urban flooding continues in south-central Texas, with considerable flooding impacts possible across central Texas. Wildfire smoke is impacting air quality across much of the Great Lakes region into southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Monsoonal thunderstorms may produce isolated to scattered flash flooding across the Southwest into the Great Basin. Read More >
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583 FXUS66 KMTR 181138 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 438 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026 - Steady or slightly warmer temperatures and more humid through early next week - The marine layer prevails through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 (Today and tonight) Onshore winds continue with coastal stratus and patchy mist/fog moving inland this morning. Strong high pressure remains located over the interior west and an upper level trough remains located over the eastern Pacific. High clouds may arrive here today from monsoonal moisture located over the Southwest. Daytime highs today will vary from the mid to upper 60s along the coast to the 70s bayside to the 80s and 90s well inland. Tonight lows will cool to the 50s except in the 60s in the hills and mountains. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Mid and high clouds will increase early next week as higher precipitable water (pw) arrives with the eventual northward moving remnants of Elida. Elida is currently a tropical storm ~ 1100 miles south of Point Conception, but the storm is forecast to weaken far before reaching higher latitudes. At this time most model forecasts are forecasting minimal convective potential early next week. Daytime highs are forecast to be near to slightly above normal next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-MVFR with the 1,200 foot deep marine layer making it to all terminals. Conditions will begin to improve by 16Z as stratus retreats to the coast where it`ll linger through the day. Coastal terminals, namely HAF and MRY, may hold onto an MVFR ceiling all day as a result. Persistence forecast on tap with the biggest change over the last 24 hours being that onshore winds have diminished. As a result, ceilings on the cusp of IFR/MVFR will likely take longer to reach terminals tonight, especially LVK and SJC. Diurnal winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with westerly flow. Conditions will begin to improve by 16Z with high confidence in VFR by the afternoon. High confidence on the return of the MVFR ceiling tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at both terminals. Stratus will clear out late morning (SNS) to early afternoon (MRY) and remain close to the coast. High confidence in ceilings on the cusp of IFR/MVFR returning to the terminals tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 436 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail over the weekend, diminishing to become moderate by next week. Moderate seas will prevail. Southerly swell will increase from distant Tropical Storm Elida as it moves north-northwestward into early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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