Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms may also produce flash/urban flooding. Critical fire weather conditions expected in the Great Basin and interior Northwest. Dangerous heat continues across the Southwest and Southeast. Read More >
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686 FXUS66 KMTR 081130 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A warming trend today through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Today and tonight) A 500 mb high pressure system centered over the southwestern states is forecast to continue shifting essentially westward to southern California and northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. A 500 mb trough of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific. Onshore winds will continue to usher stratus inland through morning, with diurnal surface warming mixing out much of the stratus by late morning and afternoon. Daytime highs will be in the 60s coastside, 60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland. Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to mid 60s at higher elevations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) The aforementioned high pressure system will be nearly stationary on Thursday then it`ll shift northeastward Friday through early next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s, 60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will cool to the 50s/60s. Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will rather quickly transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our forecast area beginning Saturday evening and night. There are hints in the GFS for example that a mid level moisture gradient to our southwest will straddle the coastal waters and offshore waters late Saturday/Sunday then again Tuesday. The intrusion of dry air above lifting moist air parcels/layers tilt the lapse rates much more steeply leading to convection. There may be a temporary increase in mid level instability traversing our forecast area early in the week. A sign for minimal potential, at this time at least GFS forecast soundings are indicating essentially no convective potential (mucape) over our forecast area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 411 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 MVFR at all terminals except KSTS, which is IFR, and these conditions should persist through the morning until stratus begins to retreat later this morning. The one exception may be KMRY that may drop into IFR, however a weak otter eddy appears to be maintaining MVFR attm. Vicinity of SFO...High confidence in MVFR ceilings to prevail until lifting by early afternoon. Breezy onshore flow will persist through today and tonight before easing after midnight, however shouldn`t be as strong as yesterday. High confidence on MVFR ceilings developing later tonight with only moderate confidence in IFR ceilings. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...KMRY continues to hover between MVFR/IFR with guidance suggesting IFR ceilings are possible between now and mid-morning. However, a weak circulation of the Monterey Peninsula appears to be holding the low MIFR ceilings in place. Moderate confidence that KMRY remains MVFR through the day but subsequent updates may hint at a short window of VFR mid-afternoon today. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 411 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Fresh to strong northwest breezes will continue across the coastal waters through the remainder of the work week, with rough seas building to 8-12 feet. A low, long period southwest swell will persist through Friday as well, easing into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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