Gusty to high winds and low relative humidity will bring elevated to critical fire weather to the central and southern Plains into Wednesday. Two Pacific storms will impact the western U.S. into Wednesday with gusty winds, low elevation rain, and heavy mountain snow. Read More >
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008 FXUS66 KMTR 161759 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 959 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 206 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 - Rain continues today and continues this week as additional storm systems arrive - Strong winds through mid-week; Wind Advisory for the Central Coast today - A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday for minor high tide flooding - Winter Weather Advisory today through Wednesday Central Coast Mts with accumulating snow - Much colder with mountain snow mid to late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 342 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (Today and tonight) A long wave trough remains located over the west coast (north hemispheric pattern remains in winter mode, active with ~ 7 long wave troughs). Within the west coast long wave trough there is a weakening, vertically stacked surface to 500 mb low pressure center (occluded low pressure) offshore ~ 350 miles west of Santa Cruz. However, there is a secondary low pressure center continuing to develop this morning, it`s currently 250 miles south of Santa Cruz and moving mainly northward. The second low will continue to bring rain and wind to our area today. A strengthening convergence of differing air masses will cause a strengthening of the front (frontogenesis) at 850 mb and 700 mb today, strengthening surface low pressure included in this process all will steepen the pressure gradients and winds. 200 mb jet stream winds are already at the base and forward of the larger scale trough, thus the development window of the second low will be short i.e. through late morning to early afternoon and mainly focused over the Central Coast before the low takes a more eastward motion. Precipitable water with the low peaks today between 0.75" and 0.80" which is near the 90th percentile for the time of year. Ouput from numerical weather prediction has varied as to how strong winds may get within this narrow window of time today; it`s a good idea to be on the lookout for suddenly gusty winds today, including a wind shift to westerly and gusty later on today. A wind advisory remains in effect over the north Central Coast from 8 am to 8 pm today. Moderate to heavy rain has prompted the issuance of a few flood advisories so far. With ongoing downpours, remember to turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. There is also a slight chance of convection today. We`ll continue to monitor KMUX radar through today. Showers continue tonight (and Tuesday) with cold air advection moving in on northwest winds. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 342 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Deep long wave troughing means additional wet weather including lowering snow levels, maybe temporary breaks but otherwise we`re catching up on recently dry weather. The over water trajectory of cold air this week will modify 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures along the way, but per recent NAM output for example we may still get 850 mb temperature lowering near -4 Celsius, near the minimum moving average for the time of year. Plenty of mixing, upward transport of sea surface heat and water vapor, instability, low pressure development will otherwise cause wet weather to continue, along with lots of snow in the high country. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 929 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 Mixed bag of flt cond across the region this morning as a potent, cold core surface low pressure system moves into the Central Coast of CA. Heaviest rainfall exiting the region late this morning will be replaced by some clearing overnight with isolated low stratus. Another round of rainfall and thick cloud cover on tap for Tuesday morning prior to sunrise lasting thru the rest of the period. Perhaps bigger story for aviators will be gusty post- frontal winds this afternoon, which will likely persist thru the rest of the TAF period with the exception of some sheltered inland valleys. Vicinity of SFO...Current round of light-moderate rain lasting thru 19Z with scattered shra afterward into the afternoon. Mostly dry overnight with gusty NW post-frontal winds likely to persist thru the overnight hours. Another round of rainfall and gusty pre-frontal S-SW winds ahead of the next system just prior to sunrise Tuesday morning, likely to persist into the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Potential for gusty SW winds along coastal areas as a surface low pressure system moves into the Central Coast. Otherwise heaviest of the rainfall is behind us at least thru midday. Another round of moderate-to-heavy rainfall likely this afternoon across the Central Coast and Monterey Bay regions. Mostly drier overnight with isolated areas of low stratus, but anticipating mostly MVFR/VFR at terminals overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 929 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 Scattered to widespread rain will continue across the waters today before becoming isolated to scattered late in the day. Strong southerly winds continue along the inner coastal waters south of Monterey Bay, while winds elsewhere increase throughout the day. Strong to near gale force winds are expected through midweek, with gale force gusts expected at times. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front and linger through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 The combination of spring tides and storm surge will bring minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to at 9:34 AM Sunday, 10:16 AM Monday, and 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for CAZ516>518-528-530. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ517-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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