Dangerous heat will remain across portions of the southern U.S. through the weekend. A heat wave over the Southwest will intensify this week, peaking and expanding into the Intermountain West and northern High Plains this weekend. Severe thunderstorms will produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the northern/central Plains into the mid/upper-Mississippi Valleys today. Read More >
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359 FXUS66 KMTR 301824 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1124 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 119 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2026 - Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening - Gradual warming through Saturday, with Moderate HeatRisk for our interior locations - Elevated fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bay, Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week - Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 908 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Satellite imagery shows stratus clouds dissipating across the SF Bay Area, with a lingering patch on the west side of San Francisco and the Pacifica area, while the clouds slowly dissipate along the Salinas Valley and linger around the Monterey Bay region. Today will mark the first day of a warming period that will bring temperatures warmer than the seasonal average across the interior regions into the early part of next week. People sensitive to heat, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, and those with certain medical conditions, should stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1246 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2026 (Today and tonight) The marine layer clouds that went "poof" earlier in the evening are slowly reforming along portions of the coast per satellite fog product. The N-S gradient from SFO-ACV eased, which is also assisting with the building stratus. That being said, expect some stratus coverage along the coast this morning and locally inland, especially Salinas Valley. Any morning clouds will likely be gone by mid to late morning. The much talked about interior warm up will be in fully swing today. While Wednesday features a few spots in the mid to upper 90s (Pinnacles hit 100) those readings will be a little more widespread. Why the interior heat? The large area of high pressure that oppressive heat to the Desert SW has been building westward for a few days now and today it will be more impactful for our interior locations. What about the coast? Still no change there. We`ll see some warmer conditions, AM clouds and onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler. Speaking of onshore flow, SFO-SAC will likely eclipse 3mb again this afternoon, which will bring gusts of 25-40 mph for inland valleys, gaps, passes. For tonight, some patchy stratus will once again develop, but given the robust building 500mb heights the marine layer will be more compressed. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1246 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) No significant changes were made for the long term forecast as overall forecast ideas remain valid from previous forecast. For the highlights - Building high pressure will continue the inland warmup. Saturday looks to be the warmest with interior Central Coast making a run at 110. Temperatures moderate Sunday into Monday as the ridge flattens. Interior locations will still see widespread Moderate HeatRisk with a few isolated pockets of Major. Shallow compressed marine layer will keep the coast from seeing the real heat, but temperatures still warm a few degrees. Temperatures rebound again next week with another push of warm 850mb air. Now for what we`re watching closely. For a few days now the ECMWF EFI has been showing really strong winds over the coastal waters Saturday and especially Sunday. The project N-S pressure gradient will be in the 7 to 9 mb range (99th percentile), which is very strong. Hi- res guidance is showing Storm Force gusts over 60 mph developing north of Point Reyes. As noted by the day shift yesterday, there are a few bursts of offshore flow. A more notable one is Sunday night/Monday morning across the N Bay into SF Bay. Obvious fire weather impacts with warming and drying, but temperatures at the coast have a high bust potential if this pans out for Monday. Finally, fire weather and beaches. See sections below for more details. If you`re recreating in the heat this weekend be the "one less spark one less fire". Additionally, if you`re seeking relief from inland heat by heading to the beach please never turn your back to the ocean. We still have hazardous conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Beginning the day with widespread VFR conditions, yay! Onshore winds increase to 10-15 kt by the early afternoon and ease to ~5 kt overnight. Winds at STS and APC remain more S-SW meanwhile sites located south of the Golden Gate remain W-NW. As the ridge continues to move westward and the 500 mb heights over our region increase, the marine layer tonight will be compressed to around 1000 feet or less. This will confine stratus coverage to coastal sites only (HAF, MRY, and SNS), potentially bringing borderline IFR-LIFR ceilings. The compressed marine layer increases the chances for patchy coastal drizzle and fog, though confidence is low on the exact duration and timing. Elsewhere should remain VFR through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Gentle onshore breezes increase to ~15 kt this afternoon (20-21Z) with SFO experiencing another round of gusts around 25 kt. Low confidence on the development of MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Most model guidance (HREF, REFS, LAMP, and NBM) tends to agree on limited stratus coverage tonight. If the marine layer deepens beyond 1000 feet, there may be a chance for stratus to trickle over SFO and OAK around 10-12Z. However, the atmosphere seems to be to dry at 925 mb and above, which helps to limit the expansion of stratus. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Winds may be a couple knots lower than SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the day. Onshore winds increase to ~10-12 kt this afternoon with gusts around 18-22 kt. A compressed marine layer will also delay the arrival of IFR ceilings compared to the previous night. As a result, they may arrive around 11-13Z, impacting MRY first and then SNS. Ceilings may intermittently become LIFR at OVC003-004, but low confidence on the exact timing. If conditions do become LIFR, coastal drizzle and patchy fog is possible which will impact visibility to around 1-2 SM. MRY has a higher chance of visibility impacts under these conditions compared to SNS. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 908 AM PDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Northwesterly breezes remain fresh to strong with embedded near gale force gusts into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas build to rough by Sunday. Northwest winds increase to gale by the end of the weekend as well. Our coastal waters continue to experience a long period southerly swell from distant tropical activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of the area through this weekend, and potentially into next week. Overnight RH recovery will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet with values between 35 to 45 percent, with some favored locations struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH will remain critically dry with values between 15 and 30 percent, with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align. && .BEACHES... Issued at 225 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 15-17 seconds will continue to impact our coastline over the next several days, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Saturday afternoon. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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