The next blast of Arctic air surges south down the Plains, across the Great Lakes and through the Southeast and East Friday through Saturday. This could be longest duration of cold in several decades. Forecast models are being closely monitored for potential of another significant winter storm to impact the eastern United States this coming weekend. Confidence in coastal impacts has increased. Read More >
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036 FXUS66 KMTR 280212 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 612 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 - Light rain returns tonight across the North Bay and portions of the Bay Area. Up to 0.5" of rain across the North Bay and up to 0.1" across portions of the Bay Area - Warm, dry weather and weak offshore flow return by Wednesday afternoon and continue through late week - Beach Hazards Statement for increased risk of sneaker waves && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) An approaching shortwave upper level trough and weak surface cold front will reach the Bay Area late this evening. This will bring a return of light rain to the North Bay and portions of the East Bay and San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula. As of 12PM this afternoon, KMUX has been transitioned back into precipitation mode with the first echoes showing up over the outer coastal waters. Folks across the North Bay will start to see some light rain/drizzle this evening. Light rain will take longer to extend into the rest of the Bay Area with the East Bay and San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula not seeing any rain until the overnight hours. Precipitation totals increased slightly with this afternoon`s forecast package compared to the overnight package. The highest totals are in the North Bay coastal mountains where up to 0.50" of rain are possible. Across the rest of the North Bay rainfall totals will be between 0.15-0.25" and up to 0.10" are possible across the East Bay and San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula. The HRRR is in agreement with slightly higher precipitation totals from this cold frontal passage and shows a few showers developing farther south over the Monterey Peninsula. This is mostly worth noting since the NBM does not show showers extending that far south. If an isolated shower or two does develop along the Central Coast, accumulations will be minimal with a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch possible. Winds across the higher elevations will increase slightly as cold frontal passage occurs with gusts peaking around 25 mph. Rain showers clear out by 10/11AM on Wednesday with skies gradually clearing through Wednesday afternoon. Morning temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the low to mid 40s, while afternoon temperatures warm into the 60s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) Upper level ridging and dry conditions return by late Wednesday and continue through remainder of the week. The rest of the week will follow a similar trend as last week with chilly mornings and warm afternoons. Most locations will stay in the 60s during the day but the warmest interior locations (e.g. Salinas Valley and interior Central Coast) will reach the low to mid 70s. Long range guidance is showing the potential for an upper level trough to reach the West Coast late weekend into early next week. This will both cool temperatures down and bring a slight potential for rain back to the forecast. Ensemble guidance does show about half of the models indicating a few tenths of an inch of rain while the other half show no rain at all. Rain is most likely across the North Bay with chances decreasing the farther south you go. At this moment it remains possible we will see at least some rain towards the end of the long term forecast but confidence is mixed. Looking way out into the future - ensemble guidance is trying to produce some precipitation throughout the first part of February but no clear consensus currently exists. With the upcoming week shaping up to be warm and sunny, beachgoers should exercise caution. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 9PM Wednesday to 9AM Friday. There will be an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents along the entire Pacific Coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County. For more details see the Beaches Section below. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 KMUX radar and surface observations show areas of light rain over the North Bay. Conditions are VFR-MVFR with cloud layers aloft. Cloud layers are not far from the base of a subsidence temperature inversion near 6800 feet on the evening upper air sounding from Oakland. Additional areas of light rain will develop over the Bay Area tonight. A few areas will likely lower to LIFR-IFR tonight and Wednesday morning before clearing to VFR by late Wednesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR tonight and Wednesday morning, VFR late Wednesday morning to evening. Mainly a light wind during the 00z TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR tonight and Wednesday morning, VFR late Wednesday morning to late afternoon. Mainly light and variable winds except onshore near 10 knots Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 553 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 Light to moderate southerly flow will prevail over most of the waters as a weak cold front approaches from the west tonight through early Wednesday morning. This will bring light rain to the northern coastal waters through Wednesday morning. Winds will be moderate to breezy north of Point Reyes with locally hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds diminish on Wednesday and switch to northerly that night. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday, but build rough to very rough Wednesday night. && .BEACHES... Issued at 359 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 Long period swells with low wave heights begin to arrive on Wednesday, but wave heights begin to increase that night while periods stay long leading to hazardous conditions. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued from 09 PM Wednesday through 09 AM Friday. Significant wave heights look to range from 14 to 19 feet. The main threat will be from sneaker waves and rip currents. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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