A storm system will bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and flooding threats to portions of the Southern Plains today, the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday, and the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Another Bering system will impact the Alaskan West Coast and Central Interior through the weekend bringing moderate to heavy snow, high winds, and/or some blizzard conditions. Read More >
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127 FXUS66 KMTR 131757 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 957 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 305 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions continue through early Saturday morning - Widespread rain and gusty winds return late Saturday and continue through much of next week - Temperatures drop starting early to mid next week as a colder airmass moves in && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 305 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 (Today and tonight) Foggy conditions have started developing across portions of the North Bay Valleys and in the vicinity of the SF Bay Shoreline. Given the lack of cloud cover across the interior, there is the potential for patchy fog to develop across portions of the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Valleys as well. Stratus is likely to be more widespread across the region tonight with coastal sites such as Half Moon Bay and Monterey reporting cloud ceilings around 1000 ft. Overcast skies should clear by late morning/early afternoon before returning again Friday night. Morning temperatures will be chillier than over the last few days with lows in the low to mid 40s across much of the region while the interior Central Coast drops into the 30s. It will be a chilly start to the day but, fortunately, the afternoon will be seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 60s. Today is last fully dry day of our brief respite from the rain. Take advantage of the day and finish up any outdoor preparations today or Saturday morning before we kick off our upcoming rain event late Saturday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 305 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Another chilly morning is on the books on Saturday with morning temperatures in the low to mid 40s while the interior Central Coast drops into the 30s. Saturday acts as a transition day from dry to wet weather as a deep upper level trough from the Gulf of Alaska pushes in and displaces the upper level ridge to our east. While rain chances don`t increase until late Saturday, high level clouds are expected to build in throughout the day ahead of the troughs arrival. This will keep high temperatures slightly cooler (North Bay and elevated terrain) in the 50s to about the same (rest of the region) in the low 60s on Saturday as on Friday. If not taken care of previously, Saturday morning/afternoon is your best time to take care of any remaining outdoor preparations like cleaning the gutter, securing outdoor objects, or making sure drains are clear before the rain returns. Models are coming into agreement that rain will reach the region late Saturday evening and will continue through much of next week. That is not to say there won`t be any breaks or dry periods this week as models show this unfolding as multiple rounds of precipitation. From Saturday evening to next Friday, 3-5" of rain is expected across the interior while 4-6" of rain is expected across the coastal mountain ranges. The bulk of this rain will fall in the Sunday to Wednesday time frame as a surface low pressure system develops offshore and moves inland over the Bay Area. As we head into Monday/Tuesday, a colder airmass will advect southwards towards the Bay Area/Central Coast as a deep upper level trough pushes in from the Gulf of Alaska and merges with the original trough over the West Coast. The arrival of this second trough will bring additional rounds of rain through the end of the week. Flooding concerns will initially start out low but are expected to increase with each day of successive rainfall as the soils become more saturated. Flooding is largely expected to be nuisance (i.e. ponding on roadways or low lying areas prone to flooding) with mainstream river flooding not expected at this time. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for Monday along the Central Coast and South Bay. Embedded thunderstorms remain possible this week but confidence is on the lower end. In terms of thunderstorm ingredients we look for a source of lift, a source of moisture, good low level shear, and instability. Our surface cold front will provide us with a source of lift and we do have decent moisture/MUCAPE on Monday and Tuesday. However, the low level shear does not look to be quite as impressive. While the low-level jet stream does impact our CWA, the upper level support is lacking in terms of the wind as the 200mb jet stream is located farther south over Southern California. In order for our thunderstorm chances to increase we would need the surface low pressure system to shift farther northwards as it moves onto land. Southerly winds strengthen across the region Sunday into Tuesday with gusts between 30-40 mph likely. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the coastline in the Monday-Tuesday period as the surface low moves inland. Probabilistic guidance shows a 50-60% chance of gusts above 40 mph along the Monterey Bay Region and an 80% chance across coastal Monterey County (Big Sur extending southwards to SLO county line). Another concern with this system is that temperatures drop starting Monday as the cooler airmass from the Gulf of Alaska. High temperatures will be seasonably cool in the upper 40s to 50s with the highest elevations peaking in the low to mid 40s. Morning low temperatures will get progressively colder each night with widespread lows in the 30s across the interior. Coastal areas will be chilly but remain slightly insulated and only drop into the low 40s (potentially the upper 30s if some of the colder scenarios play out). A mix of Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings are likely to be needed next week after this airmass arrives. As an example of how cold this airmass is, the 12Z OAK sounding for 2/17 has a mean 850mb temperature of 5.1C. Model guidance is showing an 850 mb temperature of -3C at 12Z on 2/17 which would put it in the bottom 10% of 850 mb 12Z temps for 2/17. If you have any plants that are sensitive to the cold it would be a good idea to move them indoors this week, keep pets indoors overnight, and check on any neighbors who are sensitive to the cold. With the combination of cooler air temperatures and lingering moisture, we will see a drop in snow levels and a few flakes may be possible across the highest peaks of Mt. St. Helena, the Santa Lucia Range, and the Gabilan Range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 956 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 IFR to VFR conditions across the region this morning. IFR/MVFR ceilings this morning are forecast to lift by 19-21Z, allowing for a return to VFR conditions across much of the region. Onshore winds are forecast to increase once again this afternoon, similar to yesterday. Moderate to high confidence for a return of stratus (IFR/MVFR) late in the night and into Saturday morning. KSTS, KAPC, and LVK also have the potential for fog Saturday morning. Going with a persistence forecast with winds easing late in the night. The one caveat, high clouds will also approach the region from the west ahead of our next system due to arrive late Saturday night and moreso into Sunday. Currently expecting conditions to lift and improve by 19-21Z Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings across the region this morning are forecast to improve to VFR by 19-21Z this afternoon with an increase in northwest winds. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR ceilings to return early Saturday morning along with weakening winds and continue through mid-to-late morning. Southerly winds are forecast for Saturday ahead of a frontal system arriving late Saturday and moreso into Sunday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Intermediate MVFR conditions this morning with KMRY forecast to see lingering MVFR ceilings throughout the day (moderate to high confidence). Onshore winds increase this afternoon before becoming southerly overnight and into Saturday morning. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR early this evening and into Saturday morning (potentially lowering to IFR). && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 956 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 Hazardous conditions are expected through most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail through Friday before winds strengthen and back Saturday morning to become strong and southerly. Rough seas will prevail for the inner waters and outer waters into the next week. Rain returns Saturday afternoon with wet conditions expected into next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 945 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 Hazardous beach conditions are expected at Pacific Coast beaches, excluding the northern Monterey Bay, through Saturday morning. A moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, and NEVER turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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