An active pattern will continue to bring heavy to excessive rainfall and flash flooding threats to the Midwest and Ohio Valley over the next couple of days. Dangerous heat continues across the central/southern Plains and Southeast U.S. into next week. There is potential for record-tying/breaking temperatures with many areas forecast to see their hottest temperatures so far this year. Read More >
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324 FXUS66 KMTR 131432 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 732 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 730 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions through Thursday for low relative humidity in the higher terrain - Cooling trend through Friday will bring well below normal temperatures, gradual warming trend through the weekend and into next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 730 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 The high-based convective threat continues to diminish across the Central Coast. However, there still is a non-zero chance. Thus, will remove from Key Messages and will remove the Fire Weather section of the AFD. However, low humidities in the higher terrain will result in an elevated fire weather threat through the day. No other major adjustments needed this morning as the forecast remains on track. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1225 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 (Today and tonight) The upper-level low remains off Point Conception and will continue to bring up to a 15% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms through early Thursday morning across the Central Coast as it moves inland. This will bring near-critical fire weather conditions through Thursday early morning across Monterey and San Benito Counties. Erratic/gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph can be expected with any elevated rain showers/thunderstorms. The main concern is lightning which will pose the risk for new fire starts and has the potential to hinder operations on the Timber Fire. Smoke from the Timber Fire will continue to be transported into the Central Coast via light southwesterly winds. Smoke will get trapped under the inversion at night/in the morning, making the appearance and smell worse. The proximity to the low will allow for a relatively deeper marine layer across the Central Coast (2,000 feet) than the Bay Area (1,800 feet). Sensible weather wise, the cooling and moistening trend will continue through Friday with temperatures well below normal. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1225 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Friday will see the coolest conditions of the week with well below normal temperatures and a deep marine layer as upper-level troughing persists across the West Coast. By the weekend, upper-level ridging will build in to the Desert Southwest and an upper-level low will develop well off the West Coast. This will lead to cooler conditions with a deeper marine layer in the Bay Area and hotter conditions with a more compressed marine layer for the Central Coast. Temperatures will remain below normal with the higher terrain moderating to near normal with the help of warming 850 mb temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 The upper level low continues to pull high level clouds over the region, while the marine layer deepens and spreads stratus. Terminals generally sit within the MVFR cig territory this morning and should hold. A few models show some IFR potential for North Bay terminals, but confidence is moderate to low for that. Any stratus that has formed is expected to erode or retreat to the coast by mid to late morning, with high clouds lingering. Breezy onshore winds return this afternoon and into the evening, where we could see sustained speeds between 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-25kt. Stratus returns tonight, likely onsetting between 01Z-09Z. The later start times favor interior Bay Area terminals. Vicinity of SFO...The stratus made it to SFO tonight bringing MVFR cigs with it. Models differ on how long the stratus holds, with the times ranging from 14-16Z. A few low clouds may linger throughout the day, with stratus returning tonight due to the deepening marine layer. Breezy onshore winds, with gusts up to 25kt possible, return mid to late afternoon and continue until sunset. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Cigs have been improving tonight, with the latest METARs showing MVFR cigs around 1500-2500ft. Look for this to continue through the rest of the morning hours, with skies clearing by mid to late morning. Onshore flow picks up and should remain a bit breezy through sunset. Stratus returns early, and will likely fall to MVFR between 01-03Z with IFR cigs being possible after 06Z. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 524 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds slacken to moderate to fresh today with rough seas becoming moderate by the evening. A long period southerly swell will gradually increase Thursday reaching 16 to 18 seconds (possibly higher at times) by Friday and continuing through the remainder of the weekend. Visibility may decrease due to haze and smoke nearby the Big Sur coastline due to the Timber fire. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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