Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota from this afternoon into the overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over the northern High Plains. In the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, heavy to excessive rain may bring flash and urban flooding through Wednesday. Read More >
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487 FXUS66 KMTR 071616 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 916 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 - Seasonably cool temperatures through today before a warming trend arrives for the second half of the week - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents today through Friday && .UPDATE... Issued at 916 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 No major changes to the short term forecast. Overcast conditions are likely to continue through late this morning as stratus clears slowly across the region. The marine layer will remain relatively deep (~1500-2000 ft) again tonight with widespread stratus expected again tonight. Warmer temperatures remain on track for the interior Central Coast and far interior North and East Bays starting Wednesday. More notably, there is increasing potential for thunderstorms to develop across portions of our warning area Sunday into Monday. Fire weather concerns will be elevated if thunderstorms are able to develop so make sure to keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer in time to this event. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 157 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (Today and tonight) Satellite and surface observations show a well established and widespread marine layer stratus pattern. Onshore winds prevail due to a 3.1 mb SFO-SAC onshore pressure gradient. Sea surface temperatures in the coastal waters vary from the 50s to lower 60s (approx 1F to 4F above July normals). A clear night above the stratus will allow for radiative cooling to space furthering stratus development to daybreak. A radiative and gentle upsloping cooling feedback loop may produce patchy light drizzle during the overnight to predawn hours. A stable weather pattern continues with 500 mb heights slightly above normal (near 587 decameters) at ~ 75th percentile for early July. Stratus will mix out inland with patchy stratus lingering along the immediate coastline today under diurnal surface warming. Daytime highs are forecast to reach the 60s at the coast and around the SF Bay Shoreline to the 70s/80s inland to the 90s far inland. Stratus redevelops and moves back inland tonight. Lows tonight are forecast to reach the 50s most places to the lower to mid 60s at higher elevations near the marine layer temperature inversion. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 157 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) CA is currently on the western side of a high pressure system centered over CO/NM/AZ and northern Mexico. Over the next 24-48 hours the high center will retrograde to just west of southern CA where it`ll become stationary during mid-week then is forecast to advance northeastward late in the week and weekend. Daytime highs will warm through mid-late week including a few areas getting above 100F in the southern interior Thursday and Friday. With approx 6 longwave troughs in the northern hemisphere, a strong meridional temperature gradient and an ongoing negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation this combination will place a longwave trough over the eastern Pacific and as mentioned nudge the high northeastward. The temporary westward motion of the aforementioned high then its northeastward motion away from CA may transport increasing 700-500 mb layer humidity and instability on southerly winds close to and possibly over our forecast area over the weekend and early next week. Recent global model guidance has hinted at showery qpf and it`s too soon to say if lightning will be in the mix. We can have a marine layer while separate from this high up in the atmosphere an elevated layer of humidity and instability can move over the top of the marine air. Trying to detect if there is a recent EPS/GEFS ensemble model trend in the 500 mb synoptic pattern: It does look like the 500 mb high is shifting slightly northeast in recent trends, a sign of strength in the westerlies and this may help mitigate the warm up prior to any instability arriving. It`s difficult to say with any certainty, the door to higher humidity coupled to instability may still reach here. Stay tuned to further updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 429 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 High confidence in current IFR/MVFR conditions to persist through the morning with only the North Bay and South Bay terminals expected to lift to VFR before noon. The marine layer has engulfed virtually our entire area except for locations above ~2000ft or higher. Vicinity of SFO...Bay Area terminals are expected to remain IFR/MVFR into the early afternoon with a window of VFR until around sunset when MVFR ceilings will return for the remainder of the forecast period. Breezy onshore winds this morning will become gusty by the afternoon and persist into the early evening hours, but not expected to reach airport weather warning criteria. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR conditions are expected to persist with a chance of LIFR at KMRY through mid-morning. Moderate to high confidence that KMRY remains at least MVFR through the entire forecast period, while KSNS is expected to lift to VFR by early afternoon with a return to ceilings hovering between IFR/MVFR in the evening hours. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 916 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Moderate to strong breezes are forecast across area waters, including the bays over the next 24 hours. Northwesterly swell between 6 and 8 feet will continue, with approximately 2 to 3 foot secondary long period southerly swell persisting through the week. While winds diminish to largely gentle breezes across bays, strong breezes and rough seas will persist through early Thursday across the Pacific coast waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...JM MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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