A heat wave over the Southwest will intensify this week, peaking and expanding into the Intermountain West and northern High Plains this weekend. Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast from the Northwest and the northern Great Basin this weekend. Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warnings have been issued. Read More >
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414 FXUS66 KMTR 020908 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 208 AM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Moderate HeatRisk in the interior through Monday with some patches lingering through the next week - Near critical fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bays, and the Diablo and Santa Lucia ranges through Monday - Hazardous beach conditions across the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the afternoon - Strong and gusty winds develop over coastal waters north of Pt Reyes through Sunday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 208 AM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026 (Today and tonight) An upper level disturbance will pass over the PacNW today, with quasi-zonal flow to weak troughing setting up over northern CA. To our southwest west, high pressure is being suppressed over the Desert Southwest and southern CA. What does that mean for us in the short term? Well, it means the marine layer will remain compressed as a result, at about 500ft and hugging the San Mateo and Central Coast line which means cloudy skies, patchy dense fog, and perhaps coastal drizzle through the mid morning. Skies will then clear, leading to a mainly sunny day across the region. Moderate HeatRisk is expected today for interior locations where temperatures reach the mid 90s to low 100s. Elsewhere, temperatures rise into the low 70s to mid 80s unless you`re immediately along the coast where temperatures 60s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 208 AM PDT Sun Aug 2 2026 (Monday through Saturday) Little change for Monday as the aforementioned upper level trough pushes east, allowing the pattern to change from quasi-zonal and troughy to quasi-zonal with high pressure building in. The forecast will essentially be on repeat, with perhaps interior temperatures warming up a few degrees. Heading into midweek, there are a few items that could affect temperatures. The first being onshore flow ushering in some cooler air; however, it will be dependent on how quickly the high builds in. If it is able to build, 850mb temps look to be fairly warm in the deterministic guidance. This means temps may need to be bumped up a few degrees inland instead of showing a subtle cooling trend. Beyond that high pressure looks to build and hold leading to a warming trend for late week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR at all terminals is expected to persist past midnight with Monterey Bay terminals expected to develop IFR ceilings soon after. A struggling marine layer along with a weak fetch of offshore flow that will develop in the pre-dawn hours and continue through the day Sunday should keep the interior terminals VFR through the forecast period. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Low confidence in chances of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing in the hours surrounding sunrise Sunday morning. VFR continuing through the overnight and Sunday seems more likely where the potential for more potent offshore flow is highest. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...HiRes guidance has high confidence in IFR/LIFR ceilings developing with less confidence in exact timing, most likely will be soon after midnight with VFR by early afternoon and stratus returning soon after sunset Sunday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 926 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Rough to very rough (9-14 ft) wind driven seas will continue to build through Sunday from strong to near gale force northwest winds. Our northern coastal zones and the Big Sur coastline will have frequent gale force gusts and occasional storm force gusts. The southerly long period swell will continue to weaken tonight into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 452 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through the weekend and potentially into next week. Temperatures remain around 10 to 15 degrees above normal across the interior through early next week with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. No major changes to the forecasted dry conditions. Daytime humidity retention remains poor across the interior (25-30%) with humidity values dropping into the 10s across the interior Central Coast, East Bay Hills/Valleys, and the higher elevations. Portions of the interior Central Coast may see daytime humidity values drop into the single digits this weekend into early next week. Overnight RH recovery remains poor at locations above 2,000 feet with values between 25 to 40% expected with some favored locations struggling to reach even 25%. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 97th percentile across the interior Central Coast and Mid Coast to Mendocino (North Bay) zone. ERC values are rapidly climbing across the Diablo-Santa Cruz zone (Diablo Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains) with values approaching the 97th percentile by next week. Diurnally breezy onshore winds are expected along the coast, mountain gaps and passes, and along the ridgelines each afternoon/evening. With near critically dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected, individuals across these areas are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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