Active spring pattern across the center of our nation with several episodes of severe weather and heavy rainfall expected into next week. The potential for very large hail, long track tornadoes, severe wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and flash flooding are in the outlook. Furthermore, dangerous early season heat wave continues for the Gulf Coast states into early next week. Read More >
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985 FXUS66 KMTR 162039 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 139 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 137 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures on tap for the weekend as a potent system enters the Great Basin. A warming and drying trend is expected through the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 137 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Mostly clear sky conditions have returned to the region this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be within a few degrees (-5 to +5) of seasonal averages. However, passing high clouds continue over the region. Low clouds are likely to return tonight and into Saturday morning, and push further inland, as we have abundant low level moisture. Coastal drizzle will also be possible Saturday morning as the marine layer deepens overnight. Low clouds spreading further inland, the deepening of the marine layer, and an approaching trough of low pressure will result in a slight cool down for Saturday afternoon. Maximum forecast high temperatures will range from the mid 50`s to mid 60`s on northwest facing coastal locations to upper 60`s to mid 70`s across the interior. Northwesterly winds are expected by Saturday afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph in lower elevations across the region with stronger gusts up to 45 mph in the higher elevations and just along the North Bay coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 137 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Winds ease slightly Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the exception of the higher elevations. Breezy and gusty winds will persist on Sunday afternoon with similar values mentioned above, maybe a tad bit stronger. The aforementioned upper level trough will dig into the Great Basin through Sunday before ejecting further to the east. This will result in northerly, potentially offshore winds in the higher elevations and typically windy gaps and passes of Napa, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara counties Sunday night into Monday. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions as humidity values will be in the 40-50% range Sunday night and as low as 15% on Monday afternoon (again in the higher elevations). High pressure will begin to build into the Pacific Northwest and northern California in wake of the exiting trough with the warmest day currently anticipated to be Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon look to be 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages with mid 60`s to mid 70`s for coastal areas, mid 70`s to lower 80s across the bayshore, and mid 80`s to lower 90`s across the interior. More of a zonal flow is expected by late next week with the likely return of a shallow marine layer and more seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 It`s VFR except for a lingering patch of stratus over the Monterey Bay. VFR prevailing today with VFR extending into the evening, otherwise increasing coastal stratus and patchy fog /IFR-MVFR/ tonight and Saturday morning with patchy light coastal drizzle possible. Gusty northwest winds aloft resulting in low level wind shear over KSTS Airport 12z-17z Saturday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light northeast wind until early afternoon then shifting to westerly and increasing with gusts near 30 knots during the afternoon and evening. Gusty westerly wind tonight and Saturday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-VFR improving to VFR by early afternoon under diurnal surface warming and mixing winds. MVFR due to coastal stratus developing tonight, a few patches of light drizzle are possible as well. MVFR Saturday morning. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots, strongest during the afternoon and early evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Gusty to strong northwest winds will continue over the coastal waters today through the weekend, including much of early to mid next week. Hazardous marine conditions with rough to very rough seas will continue through Tuesday night. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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