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Record Warmth Lingers; Fire Weather Concerns; Unsettled Pacific Northwest

More record warm temperatures are forecast this week from California, Southwest, Plains then into the Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The warmth combining with dry conditions may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, another Pacific system will move across the Pacific Northwest with lower elevation rain and mountain snows. For Hawaii, conditions improving. Read More >

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405
FXUS66 KMTR 222341
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
441 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Temperatures near to slightly above seasonal averages through
the week

- Dry weather through the 7 day outlook

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
(This evening through Monday)

The region is generally clear with a few high clouds. A more zonal
(east to west) flow pattern in the upper levels is promoting an
onshore wind and a slightly expanded marine layer around 1000 ft
thick, with the end result being that the immediate coast sees
temperatures close to the seasonal average with highs in the lower
to middle 60s while the interior valleys remain rather warm, as
highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s keep those regions around 10 to
15 degrees above the seasonal averages. Some low clouds are possible
at the immediate coast early Monday morning, with morning lows
ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations to
the middle 50s to the lower 60s in the higher elevations.

On Monday, a low-amplitude ridge will develop over the state, with
the overall impacts remaining relatively minor as temperatures
remain within a few degrees of today`s highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The low-amplitude ridge continues to develop through the early part
of next week, before slowly moving off to the east beginning
Wednesday into Friday. This will keep the temperatures relatively
warm for this time of year, but relatively cool when compared to
last week`s record-breaking heat. Conditions remain generally stable
through the 7-day outlook with onshore flow during the afternoons
and evenings, highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s in the inland
valleys, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast.
Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to show a second broad,
low-amplitude trough developing this weekend, although an embedded
short-wave trough will mediate the impacts. The cluster analysis
also shows the next chances for rain arriving for the last couple
days of March into the first days of April, with increasing
probabilities for scattered light rain across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 440 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of HAF and SFO
which are reporting MVFR visibility due to haze. Low confidence on
the return of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals tonight with the
relatively greatest potential at MRY and SNS. HAF will be the
exception, likely experiencing reduced visibility due to a
combination of haze and sea spray through the TAF period. Onshore
winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR due to haze with northwesterly
flow. Aside from the reduced visibility from haze, high confidence
in VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at
both terminals. Low confidence on the return of IFR conditions to
the terminals tonight. Onshore winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 440 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Fresh to strong northerly winds continue to affect the outer
waters with near gale force gusts lingering. Within 10NM moderate
to fresh northerly winds are expected. Hazardous seas continue,
with winds decreasing by Monday morning and seas will gradually
subside in as a result. Moderate seas are expected by Tuesday,
which will be accompanied with light to moderate winds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...KR

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