The active monsoon season will continue the rest of the week and the flood threat today stretches from the Arizona to portions of the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a humid and moist air mass ahead of a cold front may result in heavy rain and flooding from the Mid-Atlantic to the eastern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Finally, slow moving storms may produce flooding for the central Gulf Coast states. Read More >
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000 FXUS66 KMTR 101732 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1032 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures remain at seasonal normal values through the week with breezy onshore winds in the afternoon and marine stratus returning at night. High pressure grows into the weekend providing a subtle warming and drying trend, mainly for interior areas. && .DISCUSSION...as of 02:45 AM PDT Wednesday...Not a whole lot of change in the weather compared to 24 hours ago. Patchy stratus has developed in the Bay Area tonight and is visible via nighttime satellite imagery. The SFO-SAC gradient is around +1.5 mb so onshore wind push is not as strong tonight so not expecting widespread stratus coverage. Synoptically, the Bay Area and Central Coast regions remain wedged between an upper level low to the west and broad high pressure to the east. This low off the coast of the CA/OR border continues to move north up the coast at a slow pace. With the current position of this low, some colder air has advected into the Central Coast and Bay Area which has resulted in cooler temperatures tonight about a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Tomorrow will bring seasonable weather, which will feel similar to what we`ve been experiencing, with temps near the coast reaching low to mid 70s and regions further inland in the 80s. Warmer spots of our cwa (interior Monterey and San Benito counties) will be in the mid 90s tomorrow. As the aforementioned low continues inching northward up the coast, high pressure is still on track to build in from the east. This will lead to a slight and gradual warming trend in the interior that will take place starting tomorrow and lasting through the weekend. This warming trend will not result in oppressive heat, just will raise temperatures in the interior by up to 5 degrees by the weekend. By the weekend, interior valleys will be in the 90s and hot spots such as S. Monterey county will be around 100 degrees. With high pressure gradually backbuilding into our region, marine layer should also become more defined and shallow as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... As of 10:30 AM Wednesday... For the 18Z TAFs. Marine layer clouds are dissipating in the area near San Francisco Bay, and conditions have improved to MVFR or VFR ceilings across the region. Winds increasing this afternoon with breezy winds generally from the northwest. Stratus coverage tonight expected to be more expansive than what was seen this morning, with moderate confidence of stratus at the North Bay terminals, and somewhat lower confidence at SJC and SNS. Stratus should clear from the main terminals from 16-17 z. Vicinity of KSFO... VFR for the rest of the day. Winds from the west, gusting to 22 knots this afternoon. Overnight stratus should filter in through the Golden Gate, with low to moderate confidence in IFR ceilings over SFO. Stratus clears by 17 z; winds are expected to be stronger on Thursday afternoon with gusts approaching 30 knots. KSFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay... VFR for the rest of the day, with northwest winds around 10-15 knots. Stratus is expected to fill in this evening, but low confidence in timing for the early part of the night. By 09 z, LIFR conditions are expected at MRY with low confidence of LIFR conditions at SNS. Stratus coverage should clear by around 16-17 z. && .MARINE...as of 10:32 AM PDT Wednesday...Light winds persisting across the waters this morning with locally strong northwest winds south of Point Pinos, especially near the Big Sur coastal jet. Winds increasing Wednesday afternoon along the immediate coastal waters from Point Arena to Point Reyes, from Pigeon Point to the Santa Cruz Harbor, and from Point Lobos down the Big Sur coast, and through the Golden Gate. Winds increase across the rest of the waters late Wednesday and Thursday, creating hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. Light southerly swell of 12 to 14 seconds continues through the end of the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...SF Bay from 3 PM SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: McCorkle AVIATION: Dial MARINE: Dial Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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