National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Areas of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday which could bring large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes. Thunderstorms with heavy to excessive rainfall may produce flooding over parts of the southern High Plains and North Dakota on Tuesday. Read More >

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356
FXUS66 KMTR 020706
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1206 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Areas of Dense Fog are expected through mid-morning, especially
for the Central Coast

- Similar temperatures each day through the remainder of the work
week

- Notable cool down for the weekend into the beginning of next
week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1204 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026
(Today and tonight)

Expecting areas of dense fog overnight along the Monterey Bay and
Big Sur coastline, similar to early Monday morning in the pre-dawn
hours with a more robust marine layer getting some assistance
pushing inland from a weak upper trough that will continue to shift
south toward SoCal for the remainder of the overnight and today.
Meanwhile, with weak upper level ridging just to our north, leaves
the Bay Area and Central Coast under unorganized H30 jet flow early
this morning that begins to increase and become more organized
throughout the day. Temperatures today will be near or slightly
cooler than Mondays highs. Higher elevations in the far North Bay
tonight under the influence of the east shifting upper ridge will
once again see warmer than normal temperatures from thermal belting,
while similarly to the far south in higher elevations of the Santa
Lucias in southern Monterey County the upper low helps promote a
weak fetch of offshore flow and thermal belting, an interesting
pattern with H85 temperatures roughly in the 75th percentile for
this time of year. Otherwise overnight lows into Wednesday will be
in the low to mid-50s for lower lying areas both near the coast
and inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1204 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)

The remainder of the work week will only have slight fluctuations in
daily temperatures as the upper level low organizes in the Gulf of
Alaska with its associated trough deepening southward toward out
latitude, arriving in earnest later Friday, and lowering our
temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal for the weekend into the
beginning of next week. The troughing pattern appears to persist
past the current extended forecast, however the forecast continues
to remain dry, but pockets of coastal drizzle and fog may be a
nuisance up and down our Pacific coastline each night and early
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Stratus is moving back in along the coast and is expected to move
into the interior overnight. Moderate confidence that localized fog
will develop along the coast with IFR-LIFR conditions expected to
impact HAF, MRY, and SNS. CIGs and VIS are expected to be slightly
higher across the interior terminals where most sites stay IFR-MVFR
tonight. HRRR guidance shows a much wider fog footprint along the
Bay shoreline (impacting STS and OAK) compared to other models. The
HRRR appears to be an outlier but ensembles generally agree that
visibilities will drop overnight (ranging from 2-5 SM across the
interior). Winds are easing across the region but gusty onshore
winds return again during the afternoon/evening tomorrow.

Vicinity of SFO...Breezy onshore winds continue to decrease
overnight before gusty onshore winds return tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Moderate to high confidence in MVFR CIGs overnight with
increasing confidence that IFR conditions will develop during the
early morning. CIGs clear by late morning with VFR conditions
persisting the rest of the day. LAMP guidance suggests a brief
period of LIFR CIGs are possible between 12-16Z but confidence is
low in this scenario.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR to LIFR CIGs expected overnight with
dense fog possible during the early morning hours. CIGs have been
trending downwards over the last few hours with WVI reporting LIFR
CIGs as of 05Z. This is increasing confidence in LIFR CIGs
developing more rapidly at MRY and SNS and continuing for much of
the night. CIGs look to clear by late morning before MVFR-IFR CIGs
return early (00-03Z). The current TAFs are slightly optimistic with
regards to clearing tomorrow afternoon. HREF and LAMP guidance both
offer more pessimistic forecasts with MVFR CIGs persisting at MRY
throughout the day. Breezy onshore winds return during the day with
lighter winds expected overnight.&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate winds continue into early Tuesday with seas
abating. Winds increase Tuesday with strong northerly winds
returning by late Tuesday with gale force gusts returning mid
week and seas building starting mid to late week. Gale force
gusts and elevated seas will continue through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate winds continue into early Tuesday with seas
abating. Winds increase Tuesday with strong northerly winds
returning by late Tuesday with gale force gusts returning mid
week and seas building starting mid to late week. Gale force
gusts and elevated seas will continue through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect today through 5 AM
Tuesday morning due to an increased risk for sneaker waves and
strong rip currents caused by a long period southwest swell. On
the buoys, this swell is being masked by stronger northwest swell
waves, but careful analysis of the wave spectrum at the Point
Reyes and Point Sur buoys reveals a southwest swell around 1 to 2
feet high with a period of 20 seconds. These long period swells
result in increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly
waves which surge much further up the beach than expected and
sweep unaware beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents
that can sweep the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn
your back to the ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay away
from the water. Observe the waves for 20 minutes before moving
closer. Swim near a lifeguard if possible, and if caught in a rip
current, swim parallel to the coast away from the current, and
then at an angle to shore.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay
N of Bay Bridge.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT
Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT
Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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