Super Typhoon Sinlaku will bring destructive winds, widespread heavy rain/flooding, thunderstorms, and coastal impacts to the Marianas Islands into Wednesday. Typhoon conditions are likely over the Northern Mariana Islands. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes through Tuesday. Heavy snow is expected in the Pacific Northwest. Read More >
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673 FXUS66 KMTR 140725 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1225 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures continue through Thursday - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning - Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday - Confidence is increasing for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Today and tonight) The upper level low that brought beneficial rainfall the past few days has exited east with lingering low clouds overnight from the SF Peninsula south into Monterey and the Salinas Valley, and farther inland over the interior mountains of San Benito County. Low clouds will linger across the Bay Area and Central Coast through mid- morning today as a drier mid-level airmass filters in across our area under shortwave ridging aloft, with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures will begin their gradual increase through midweek today, with only slight increases from Mondays highs. Tonight into Wednesday morning will still be on the chilly side of normal with mostly clear skies, relatively light winds, and more efficient radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1216 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly higher on the backside of the progressive shortwave ridging. By Wednesday afternoon, onshore flow will increase out ahead of a sharpening trough that will bring gusty winds and a slight chance of rain across northern portions of the North Bay. The better fetch of onshore flow out ahead of the upper trough and associated surface boundary will be short lived but will produce more widespread cloud cover during the day and evening hours. Onshore flow will quickly transition to north/northeast offshore flow overnight into Thursday in the wake of the progressive upper trough. The gusty winds during the day Thursday, especially above 1000ft are not expected to exceed 40 MPH with little impacts. Winds ease Friday, while a still progressive but high amplitude ridge moves onshore producing a more notable jump in temperatures Friday and Saturday to slightly above normal for most locations. The active, progressive longwave pattern continues by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week with an increasing signal for another round of widespread beneficial rainfall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A deep marine layer is trying to reform as the atmosphere re-stabilizes. The most likely impacts will be patchy MVFR stratus at coastal terminals, although there is a decent chance for brief impacts at inland terminals as well. There is very little chance of IFR conditions, however. Vicinity of SFO...Strong onshore wind will continue through the night and through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday morning before skies clear in the late morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings rolled in earlier than expected at MRY, and will very likely remain through mid morning at least. The bigger question is if and when they reach SNS. The most likely window is from 10Z to 17Z, before the cloud deck starts to mix out. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The gradient between high pressure in the East Pacific and lower pressure over California will support a moderate to fresh NW breeze and moderate seas across the exposed coastal waters through Wednesday. A cold front will increase winds to near gale force late Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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