A series of cold fronts will bring heavy lake effect snow to the northern Great Lakes. The fronts will merge over the Ohio Valley and bring colder temperatures east of the Mississippi River later today into the end of the week. Additionally, wintry weather will develop over the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Northeast as rain switches over to snow tonight into Thursday morning. Read More >
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054 FXUS66 KMTR 141804 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 - Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the next week - Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys - Elevated risk for sneaker waves and rip currents at Pacific coast beaches && .UPDATE... Issued at 832 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 Temperatures dropped into the low to mid 30s across the North Bay Valleys and southern Salinas Valley this morning, yet not as widespread as previous mornings. Also, Buchanan Field (Concord) is reporting dense fog at this hour. Those conditions should gradually improve throughout the morning as give way to mostly sunny sky conditions this afternoon. As a result, temperature are forecast to warm into the low to mid 60s across the North Bay, lower 60s across the East Bay, mid to upper 60s across the South Bay, and up to the lower 70s across the Central Coast. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track this morning. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 (Today and tonight) Not much to comment on the night so far, aside from some pockets of valley fog. Santa Rosa has found the dewpoint and with the slightly warmer water flowing in the Russian River, patchy dense fog has been affecting the area. Winds in the lower elevations have been very light through the night so far, while the mid to upper elevations have see some breezier conditions. There wasn`t much to get into the weeds over in the overnight forecast update, but some tweaks were done to the the winds to better reflect the upper elevation breeziness tonight and over the next few days. Otherwise the forecast remains mostly the same: High pressure continues to allow for warm days, and cool (but steadily warming) nights. Expect lows this morning ranging from the upper 30s in the interior valleys to the low 50s along the immediate coast. Highs look to mostly be in the 60s for the Bay Area, but portions of the Santa Cruz mtns along with Monterey and San Benito counties are poised to break into the 70s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Thursday continues the warming trend both in morning lows and afternoon highs, and looks to be the warmest of the forecast as the high pressure continues to build. Highs will be only slightly higher, so nothing too extreme, but there is a chance that a spot in the far interior of Monterey Co could break 80 degrees. The ridge pattern in the jet stream narrows into the end of the work week with the California coast sitting closer the eastern portion of the ridge. This change in pattern will allow for slight cooling, but will still keep conditions warm and skies mostly clear into Saturday. These clear skies turn cloudier over the late weekend as thin, high cloud cover looks to return Sunday. Fog chances to return to the forecast on Sunday as well. A slight reduction in pressure will allow for the reestablishment of a very compressed marine layer, and a feed of Tule Fog from the Central Valley. The current forecast keeps, daily fog potential from Sunday well into the next work week, with fair model confidence. Model confidence becomes a mess into the the last few days of next week. Agreements are fair for the ridge pattern to be broken, but the route to that result is differing across the models. The GFS models and ensembles have been calling for a cutoff low to move through the ridge and break it from the inside, which is certainly rare to see. Other longer term models show variations of a decaying ridge pattern as two stronger troughs build to the north. Either way, this does eventually call for some chances for rain to return in the last week of January. Though the path to get there and the magnitude of the rain still is a matter of debate. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 Quiet and VFR conditions prevail across the CWA this morning and should continue to hold through much of the forecast period. Models are ambitious again for the overnight hours and Wednesday morning forecast, but opted to not be as aggressive as yesterday`s TAF and kept visibility reductions to KSTS and KAPC based on the observations we have had so far today and the continued offshore flow. Vicinity of SFO...Offshore winds will prevail today, with VFR conditions holding through the forecast period. Given offshore flow looks to hold, opted to avoid adding any reduced visibility since we remained in VFR overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions and mainly offshore winds look to prevail through the forecast period. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail today. Winds will veer to become offshore Thursday through Saturday before northerly winds return Sunday. Moderate seas will prevail through the week with the exception of the northwestern portion of the waters where rough seas will briefly build in today into tomorrow. && .BEACHES... Issued at 338 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches this morning and persist through tomorrow. Hazards include sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and large breaking waves. Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves that suddenly surge much farther up the beach than expected, overtaking the unaware. They can sweep beach-goers into the ocean, roll logs and heavy debris along the beach, knocking over or pinning down unsuspecting beachgoers, and can result in cold water immersion, which can be deadly with sea surface temperatures in the 54 to 57 degrees range. Remain out of the water, stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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