Wildfire smoke will push into the Midwest, worsening air quality. A frontal system brings severe storms from the Northern Plains to the Mid‑Atlantic the next few days. Heavy Gulf Coast rain is possible as Tropical Depression Two has formed, while monsoonal storms persist in the Southwest with heavy rainfall. Hazardous heat expands from the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Read More >
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323 FXUS66 KMTR 191841 AAA AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1141 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - Near or slightly below normal temperatures and higher humidity through the first half of the upcoming week. - The marine layer and mid to upper level cloud cover will continue to help keep temperatures cooler under building high pressure. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 109 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (Today and tonight) Onshore winds are ushering stratus inland. Onshore winds continue due to a 2.9 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradient. A few patches of mist/fog may additionally develop through daybreak. High clouds are extending far north-northeast of tropical storm Elida located 1000 miles south- southwest of Point Conception. Elida is forecast to essentially move northward, get drawn into the westerlies and weaken to a post tropical remnant low by 5 am PDT Tuesday, July 21st per latest from the NHC. Strong (warm core) high pressure remains located over the interior west, land locked as typically this time of year due to high sun angle surface heating. The high is surrounded by a mix of cold core (mid-latitude) and warm core (tropical) low pressure systems of varying strength. Upward vertical motion/expansion (lows) has to return downward/compression (highs) somewhere via continuity. Upper level troughing generally remains located over the eastern Pacific. Daytime highs today will be about the same it was on Saturday, varying from the mid to upper 60s along the coast to the 70s bayside to the 80s and 90s well inland. Tonight lows will cool to the 50s except in the 60s in the hills and mountains. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 109 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (Monday through Saturday) As mentioned, current tropical storm Elida is forecast to move generally northward, get drawn into the westerlies and weaken to a post tropical/remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical cyclones depend on a minimum of 80F or warmer sea surface temperatures. With less heat flowing into northward moving tropical cyclones the thermodynamic system diminishes. Not to mention northward moving tropical cyclones eventually encounter the westerlies, wind shear, drier air (destructive to convection), but may temporarily form in to a hybrid system or become an extra-tropical cold core system tapping energy transformation from warm/cold air temperature advection. As of current time, the GFS and ECMWF for example forecast the remnant low to pass ~ 500 miles to our west early-mid week, rain is forecast to fall from the low, but of course it`ll be too far to our west to benefit from it. Good news so far, based on the forecast low trajectory and most model forecasts, there is minimal convective potential over our forecast area early-mid week. Of course as always stay tuned to the latest updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Flight categories continue to improve and over the next 2-4 hours VFR is anticipated at OAK, HAF, and MRY. There is high confidence that MVFR/IFR stratus and BR will make a return tonight into Monday morning. However, the marine layer is projected to compress and this lowers confidence in the specifics. There`s medium confidence that LIFR will transpire at STS and HAF due to a combination of stratus and BR. While some hi-resolution guidance does suggest a threat for visibility under 1/2 mile, confidence remains too low to include at this time. The compressed marine layer will limit the duration of stratus at SJC and LVK is forecast to remain VFR. There is a non-zero potential for elevated showers with largely virga/turbulence, with the greatest chance (~10%) at HAF, STS, and APC. While the current TAF set omits VCSH, inclusion may be warranted in future forecasts as confidence increases. For now, mid- level clouds between FL100-FL150 will stream in overhead. Vicinity of SFO...VFR has returned with diurnal WNW`ly winds in progress. VFR is expected through 07Z Mon, though there`s a potential that MVFR stratus may return sooner than advertised. If this transpires, impacts to the evening push should be anticipated. The compressed marine layer lowers forecast confidence in IFR at SFO, but nearly half of short-range hi-res guidance advertises intermittent cigs below FL010 around sunrise Monday. VFR should make a swift return mid-morning Monday. The potential for elevated showers INVOF SFO is low with the greater chance to the north and west of the terminal. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR anticipated shortly at MRY. Otherwise, diurnal breezes and VFR this afternoon. Stratus returns near/just after 00Z Mon and will initially be MVFR. Roughly 2-3 hours thereafter, ceilings will lower into the IFR category. The compressed marine layer does support the introduction of IFR visibility and LIFR ceilings at MRY around 9Z. This potential isn`t quite as high at SNS, but trends will be monitored. A return to VFR is more probable after the end of the current valid TAF period, unless the inland intrusion of stratus is less than anticipated. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will persist through the upcoming workweek with slight to moderate seas. As tropical cyclone activity continues across the eastern Pacific, long period southerly swell is forecast. While heights for the southerly swell are largely anticipated to remain in the slight category, mixed seas may result in hazardous boating conditions through the week. In addition, there are non-zero chances for high based showers which could result in pockets of gusty outflow winds and subsequent steep seas through mid-week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Cooler than normal temperatures with assistance from onshore flow and relatively normal diurnal intrusion of the marine layer will continue through the weekend into next week. RH recovery will be excellent for coastal areas and valleys, and moderate to good farther inland. However weak offshore flow/thermal belting will result in poor RH for higher elevations, especially above 1500- 2000ft across the East Bay Hills and Santa Lucias. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Bain MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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