Showers, along with a few strong to severe thunderstorms, are expected from the Great Lakes, New England and southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In the wake of this system, a stronger storm is expected to track from the Pacific Northwest, Plains and through the Eastern U.S. this weekend. Strong winds, showers and a larger drop in temperatures are expected this weekend into Monday. Read More >
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231 FXUS66 KMTR 090532 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 932 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 - Warming and drying trend through this upcoming Monday - Unsettled weather pattern returns by the middle of the week && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 Light offshore flow continues with drier and warmer conditions reported across the region tonight than at the same time last night. This combination should prevent fog from developing tonight and keep nighttime lows in the 50s to low 60s. The 00Z OAK sounding reflects this much drier air with a PWAT of 0.61 in compared to the 00Z sounding from yesterday where the PWAT was 1.00". 00Z model guidance is starting to come in and it is maintaining a favorable setup for widespread rain across the region next week. We will likely see QPF amounts fluctuate for this event over the next few days so stay tuned to the forecast for updates. Given increasing confidence in this weeks system, Sunday would be a good day to make sure you have any outdoor preparations done before this system arrives. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Northeasterly flow persist across the higher elevations this afternoon, yet has diminished in strength as of the past few hours. As earlier fog and low clouds have dissipated, mostly sunny skies prevail across the region allowing for a warm afternoon ahead. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the interior and around the Santa Cruz region, lower 70s near the coast, and the upper 60s along the immediate coastline. This will also dry out conditions this afternoon with minimum relative humidity values dropping to as low as 10% in the regions peaks and between 20%-40% in the hills/ridgelines. Less cloud cover is forecast for tonight as offshore flow strengthens slightly in the higher elevations and the ridge axis becomes shifts to the east closer to the Bay Area and Central Coast. Again, these winds are not strong enough to warrant any fire weather products. Overnight lows will drop into the low-to-mid 50s and into the lower 60s across the higher terrain. For Sunday, a warming and drying trend will continue as weak to moderate offshore flow prevail in the higher elevations. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low-to-mid 80s across the interior and around the Santa Cruz region (hottest locations may approach 90 degrees F in places Pinnacles National Park and Bradley). Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s away from the immediate coast where the upper 60s are expected. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) Offshore winds will relax on Monday in the higher elevations, just ever so slightly. However, Monday is forecast to be the warmest day of the week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees above those on Sunday as the ridge axis becomes centered over the Bay Area and Central Coast. From the previous forecaster: "The focus of the seven day forecast continues to be the shift towards a more unsettled weather pattern in the middle of next week. The ridge over the West Coast erodes and shifts towards the east, allowing an upper level trough to build in the northeastern Pacific and arrive across the West Coast beginning on Wednesday. The current model consensus depicts the best chance for precipitation and the most intense rain coming through the region late on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a period of lower chances of less intense rain, potentially showery in nature, Friday and Saturday. There are still several sources of uncertainty in regards to the forecast, particularly in the rainfall totals and resultant downstream impacts to flooding and landslide risk. For the period from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM on Saturday the 15th, the NBM gives the following ranges for 25th to 75th percentile rainfall totals (that is, a 50% probability that the eventual rainfall falls within this range): 1.2"-2.2" at Sonoma County Airport and San Francisco International Airport, 0.8"-1.6" at San Jose Airport, and 1"-2" at the Livermore Airport and Monterey Regional Airport. Just to add that additional bit of spiciness to the forecast, the NBM is also painting a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms across the Bay Area and Central Coast on Thursday, with K Index values of 30-35 degrees Celsius suggesting that scattered thunderstorms are possible. We will continue to monitor the evolution of the forecast as we head into the early part of next week, particularly in case the rainfall totals start leaning towards more impactful scenarios. Beyond the 7 day outlook, ensemble model means are suggesting another trough may develop somewhere around the Day 9-10 timeframe, and the CPC outlook leans towards precipitation totals above seasonal averages heading into the first week of December." && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 VFR conditions and light to moderate winds expected to persist at the majority of terminals through the TAF period. The exception is STS, where mist is already moving up the Russian River drainage and impacting the terminal. This will likely persist through most of Sunday morning before mixing out. A southerly surge is likely to develop Sunday, but most model guidance keeps the impacts over the water. Vicinity of SFO...No major concerns tonight. The current conditions are warmer and drier than this time yesterday (RH 67% vs 87%). This should help alleviate any fog concerns like we saw this morning. Otherwise winds will be light and variable through the night before a gentle sea breeze develops Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions expected through the night with light drainage flow. If any terminals are impacted by the southerly surge, it will be MRY and SNS late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 900 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 Favorable conditions in the short term with rough conditions later this week. A gentle to moderate northerly breeze and moderate NW swell will continue through Tuesday. Late Wednesday winds will flip to southerly and increase to a strong breeze across the coastal waters. Winds will remain moderate to strong and gradually veer back to NW through the day Thursday. These winds, combined with a building NW swell, will generate rough waves. While the winds decrease Friday, the high swell continues to build with significant wave heights reaching up to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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