Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms may produce heavy to excessive rain that could pose a flooding threat from east Texas into Upstate New York. A moderate atmospheric river will bring heavy snow and high winds to the Northwest U.S. Read More >
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347 FXUS66 KMTR 110839 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 139 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026 - Well above normal temperatures through the forecast period - Widespread minor HeatRisk through Saturday, areas of moderate HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026 (Today through Friday) Our region will be on the eastern periphery of upper-level shortwave ridging across the Eastern Pacific Ocean through Thursday. As a result, a quick warmup will ensue with temperatures around 15 degrees above normal away from the immediate coast. Fortunately the location of the ridge will still allow for onshore flow which will keep things comfortable at night and temperatures from running away. The only record high in jeopardy in the short term is SJC on Thursday with a maximum temperature forecast of 81 degrees which would tie the record from 2007. A passing subtle upper-level shortwave trough will tamp down the ridge and reinforce onshore flow, pressing pause on the warming trend on Friday. Of most impact in the short term will be minor HeatRisk. To mitigate your risk: increase hydration with water, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade when the sun is strongest, and open windows at night and use fans to bring cooler air inside buildings. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 138 AM PDT Wed Mar 11 2026 (Saturday through Tuesday) Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that an anomalously high amplitude upper-level longwave ridge will begin to move into the region from the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. As the aforementioned ridge encroaches our area Sunday, this will veer winds to become northerly which will only act to further warm and dry the region. The axis is expected to be overhead on Tuesday, which will yield the hottest day of the forecast period. While beyond the official seven day forecast, there is uncertainty in the evolution of the ridge. Even with the uncertainty, global ensemble clusters illustrate that it is likely that we will be dealing with anomalously high heights through Thursday of next week. To put this into context, we will be in record breaking territory Sunday through Tuesday. This is not just with temperatures (read the CLIMATE section below), but monthly records for 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights which are both good indicators for the type of air mass that we are dealing with. Impacts wise, widespread minor HeatRisk on Saturday will give way to areas of moderate HeatRisk Sunday through Tuesday. To mitigate your risk: reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day, stay hydrated with water, stay in a cool place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler times of the day, and for those without a/c, use fans to keep air moving and open windows at night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1001 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026 VFR through the TAF period. Gentle northwest winds diminishing to become light and variable overnight, with moderate onshore flow resuming Wednesday afternoon and evening. Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period with breezy west winds continuing for another couple of hours. Winds become light after midnight before breezy onshore flow returns Wednesday afternoon into the evening. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. At MRY, gentle winds will veer from the northeast to the northwest over the course of Wednesday morning, while during the same period, breezy northwest winds will develop at SNS. Winds will become light again during the evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 831 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Gale force gusts across the outer waters will gradually dissipate into Wednesday morning, but rough seas and fresh to strong northerly breezes will persist into the next weekend. Winds and seas will ease into the early part of next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1140 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for March 12th, 15th, 16th and 17th. Location Mar 12 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Santa Rosa 83 in 2007 88 in 2004 91 in 2004 87 in 1996 San Rafael 81 in 2007 83 in 1972 87 in 1972 84 in 1972 Kentfield 83 in 2005 85 in 2004 86 in 2004 87 in 1914 Napa 86 in 2005 86 in 2004 88 in 2004 92 in 1914 Richmond 81 in 2005 85 in 2004 84 in 1972 83 in 2004 Livermore 84 in 1916 83 in 1972 88 in 1972 87 in 1972 San Francisco 79 in 2007 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 85 in 1914 SFO Airport 77 in 2007 81 in 2004 82 in 2004 82 in 2004 Redwood City 83 in 2005 84 in 2004 84 in 2004 85 in 2004 Half Moon Bay 75 in 2014 74 in 1974 78 in 1972 83 in 2004 Oakland Museum 80 in 2007 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 San Jose 81 in 2007 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 88 in 1914 Salinas Airport 83 in 2007 83 in 1972 87 in 2004 87 in 2004 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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