Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across the central Plains. Heavy rain will pose a flash flood threat across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to bring a critical fire weather threat from the Southwest into the Great Basin. Read More >
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727 FXUS66 KMTR 081151 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 451 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026 - Cooler temperatures persist through Tuesday - Chance for coastal drizzle this evening into early Tuesday - Warmer and drier conditions return mid to late week with moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in the interior - Elevated fire weather concerns in the interior North Bay late Wednesday and Thursday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026 (Today and tonight) High level clouds are streaming over the Bay Area and Central Coast as a trough continues to impact the West Coast. The latest reports from the Bodega Bay profiler suggest a marine layer around 1000-1500 feet has developed, but owing to the incoming high clouds inhibiting radiative cooling, not sure if we will see much of a stratus deck tonight. Cooler temperatures will persist today as an upper level low reinforces the troughing pattern, with high temperatures reaching the 70s across the inland valleys, perhaps the lower to middle 80s in the warmest spots, the middle 60s to the lower 70s near the SF Bay and the Santa Cruz coastal plain, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast and southern Monterey Bay. Once again, breezy and gusty onshore pattern winds will develop this afternoon and evening with wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and at the ridgelines, with favored locations in the Salinas Valley and the Altamont Pass seeing gusts of 35 to 40 mph. This evening into the early morning of Tuesday, some coastal drizzle might develop across the northern reaches of Sonoma County as a weak cold front makes its way through the state, but elsewhere in the region, rain chances have backed off. Rainfall amounts will range from a tenth of an inch in favored locations in coastal Sonoma County, to a trace across other parts of the coastal Bay Area, to nonexistent pretty much everywhere else. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Tuesday will see a slight warming trend as the trough begins to make its way eastward, as the inland valleys sees highs rising into the middle 70s to middle 80s. Afterwards, temperatures will rise dramatically on Wednesday with the departing trough allowing a strong ridge to develop in the eastern Pacific and spread its influence into the West Coast. The current forecast for the inland valleys places high temperatures into the middle 80s to middle 90s with particularly warm areas in the North and East Bays and interior Central Coast reaching the triple digits. There`s still some caution to be noted with the warmest temperatures. The previous forecaster noted that ensemble model runs were showing a wide range of possible highs for Wednesday and Thursday. This is still somewhat true, particularly on Thursday and especially beyond. Drilling into a specific example, the current forecast for the Livermore area suggests high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s for Wednesday through Friday. NBM model statistics reveal that the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile high temperature forecasts for Livermore is around 5 degrees, while the spread for the 10th and 90th percentile highs hovers around 8 to 9 degrees. In other words, if you look at the range of possible high temperatures for Thursday, when the current high temperature forecast is 99, there`s a 50% chance that when the Livermore region reports its high temperature for Thursday, it falls between 96 and 101 degrees, and there`s an 80% chance that the high falls between 94 and 103 degrees. All of this to say, don`t be surprised if the forecast highs continue to fluctuate as the models come into better agreement. Hot temperatures will continue into Friday, but will start to dip as the inland highs reach the upper 80s to middle 90s. Beyond that, the spread in the forecast becomes even wider still, and ensemble model cluster analysis suggests that the conditions will depend critically on if, and how, the ridge interacts with potential downstream trough development. The hot temperatures across the middle and later portions of the week will contribute to Moderate HeatRisk across the inland regions. This corresponds to a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for people sensitive to heat including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic health conditions, and people who work or live outside without adequate cooling or shelter. People spending time outdoors should take frequent breaks in the shade and drink plenty of water. In addition, the hot temperatures combined with gusty north winds and low humidities will contribute to fire weather concerns across the interior North Bay mountains late on Wednesday into Thursday. More information will be available in the FIRE WEATHER section. Remember, one less spark, one less wildfire. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026 VFR prevails for the remainder of today for a majority of our terminals. KHAF, KMRY and KSNS will have MVFR cigs through mid- morning today. Gusty onshore flow will spread across our area this afternoon and persist into the evening hours. Deeper moisture associated with a disturbance well to our north will result in widespread MVFR cigs developing around sunset and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. Vicinity of SFO...VFR will prevail for the remainder of today with gusty onshore flow increasing by late morning and persisting through sunset. Moderate to high confidence that MVFR cigs will develop around sunset and persist for the remainder of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs expected to lift by late morning with gusty onshore flow this afternoon into the evening hours. Moderate to high confidence that MVFR cigs will return this evening prior to sunset and persist through the remainder of the TAF period, with a slight chance of IFR/LIFR late tonight into early Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 413 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Winds and seas will continue to ease today through late tonight. Overnight into early Tuesday morning fresh to moderate northwesterly wind and seas will begin to build again, with hazardous conditions for small craft developing by mid-morning across both the outer and inner waters. Gale force wind gusts are possible by early Wednesday morning over the outer waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Hot temperatures, gusty north winds, and low humidities across the North Bay interior mountains will raise the fire weather threats late on Wednesday into Thursday, with a particular emphasis on the interior mountains of Napa County. Although the strongest winds will remain within the Sacramento Valley, gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected to spread into Napa County, with stronger gusts of 40-50 mph possible along the Vaca Mountains along the county`s eastern edge. Meanwhile, daytime humidity retention will be very poor with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%, while overnight recoveries are likewise poor as RH values top out at 20-30%. Thus, fuels are expected to dry rapidly, leading to the elevated fire weather concerns. It`s a little too early to put out fire weather products at this stage, but this will be re-evaluated today and Tuesday as the dry conditions approach. Elsewhere across the district, conditions remain hot and dry, but we`re not expecting winds to be as strong as they are across the interior North Bay. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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