Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes are likely from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is outlooked for the Midwest. A widespread heat wave will peak in the South and East on Friday, with many temperature records expected to be broken. Read More >
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765 FXUS66 KMTR 120523 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1023 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 - Hot and dry through Friday with a moderate risk of heat- related illnesses - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along south and southwest facing beaches through the weekend - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 (This evening through Friday) Despite the beautiful sunny skies, there is a lot going on today. We are dealing with near record temperatures this afternoon, offshore winds and elevated fire weather conditions, a southerly surge of coastal stratus moving up the Central Coast, coastal flooding along the San Francisco Bay Shore, and a sneaker wave threat from long period southerly swell. Let`s discuss each of these weather impacts individually. High temperatures are ongoing afternoon. Today marks the hottest day of the week with temperatures expected to reach 10-20 degrees above normal across the interior. That translates to highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees in the typical hotspots. This will be the hottest day of the year for many, and will challenge some daily records. The immediate coast will be spared from some of this heat thanks to a very shallow marine layer and developing SW winds. However this relief won`t make it very far inland, and it`s already 89 degrees in San Francisco. Offshore wind and elevated fire weather conditions continue across the interior mountains today. While the Red Flag warning across the interior North Bay and East Bay mountains expired at 9 AM, we are still observing near critical fire weather conditions in these areas above 1,000 ft elevation. The strong push of offshore winds is waning as high pressure over the Rockies starts to weaken. The SFO- WMC gradient bottomed out at -9.6 mb at 7 AM and has now risen to - 8.1 mb and will continue to neutralize through the next 24 hours. While today is hotter and drier than yesterday, the offshore winds are light enough to end the critical fire weather conditions. A southerly surge of coastal stratus is moving up the Central Coast. Currently reaching Big Sur, this push of clouds will impact the Monterey Bay this afternoon and continue north through the night. There may be some fog impacts on HWY-1 as a result of this feature. High tide flooding will occur nightly along the Bayshore through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, and about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to bring tides up to 1.8 feet above normal through the weekend. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022. Long period southerly swell is bringing an enhanced risk of sneaker waves. Buoys are reporting mixed seas with a combination of NW wind waves and southerly swell. The southerly swell is around 5 feet with a 16 second period. These waves may go unnoticed by ships at sea, but when long period waves reach the coast they grow much higher than standard waves and bring stronger currents. The primary hazard is sneaker waves, particularly on S and SW facing beaches. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Temperatures will start to come down Friday and continue to cool a couple degrees into the weekend. We will remain several degrees above normal across the interior, but the coast will shift into the typical Summertime marine layer pattern with clouds and fog in the morning and clear skies in the afternoon. A weak disturbance will move through the ridge on Sunday, allowing the marine layer to temporarily deepen a bit. Basically the atmosphere shifts back to normal, but we will still deal with the southerly swell and high tide flooding through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 A southerly surge of low clouds will continue to work its way north up the coastline overnight. Generally light onshore winds and a shallow marine layer should limit inland extent of low clouds overnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings and reduced visibility will impact primarily coastal sites overnight into Friday morning, including the Monterey Bay terminals and KHAF where localized fog has developed. Low clouds should spill through the Golden Gate, although confidence in the extent across SF Bay is lower. Low clouds should recede to the coastline by late Friday morning, then increase again Friday night. Winds Friday will be moderate onshore. Inland, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Light west-northwesterly winds will prevail overnight. Stratus will flow through the Golden Gate into the SF Bay overnight with a few low clouds moving over the airspace. Moderate confidence that it will remain VFR through the TAF period. By Friday early afternoon, winds will become west- northwesterly and moderate (10-15 kts). A similar pattern will set up for Friday night with additional low clouds moving into SF Bay. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Primarily LIFR ceilings overnight with periods of IFR as well. Visibility will also be reduced but confidence in fog developing with visibility less than 1SM is lower. Conditions should improve by late Friday morning with generally VFR conditions in the afternoon. Light onshore winds overnight, increasing to 8-15 kt Friday afternoon. Low stratus resulting in IFR conditions is expected to return Friday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1012 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Eastern Pacific and lower pressure over California is supporting a moderate to fresh northwest breeze across the northern coastal waters. Rough seas will gradually subside through the weekend as the winds decrease. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506- 508. Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ510-513>515. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Tangen MARINE...Tangen Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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