Lake-effect snow will continue downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario through Friday. Lake Effect Snow Warnings have been issued. In the Western U.S., rain and higher elevation snow will continue over the Great Basin through Friday. A front will move over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and produce light rain and higher elevation snow over the Cascades through Saturday. Read More >
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847 FXUS66 KMTR 121750 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 950 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 ...New AVIATION, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 - Rain showers taper off by late morning with dry weather through Friday - Hazardous beach conditions late Thursday night through early Saturday morning - Widespread rain and gustier winds return Saturday and persist into next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 834 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 Overall the short term forecast is in good shape, with no changes needed this morning. We will examine MinT`s tonight as there`s a chance for optimal radiational cooling which could allow temperatures to fall down into the low to mid 30s in spots. In addition, pockets of fog, potentially dense, may develop tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise, we`ll be examining the latest NWP for what should be a more active stretch of weather later this weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 (Today and tonight) Offshore, a low pressure system continues to weaken and move southwards along the California coast. Precipitation associated with this system has largely ended over but KMUX shows a few scattered showers lingering over the region. Shower activity will continue to diminish through the remainder of the morning with largely dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. As the low departs, ridging briefing rebuilds Thursday and Friday which will give us a brief break in the rain before it returns this weekend into next week. Temperatures warm, slightly, into the low to mid 60s across the lower elevations on Thursday while the higher elevations stay comparatively cooler in the 40s to 50s. Chillier overnight lows return Thursday night into Friday with lows dropping into the low 40s across the Bay Area and coastal Central Coast. Interior Monterey and San Benito Counties will get even cooler with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Portions of far southeastern Monterey County (Bradley and Fort Hunter Liggett) will reach the low to mid 30s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 249 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Dry weather continues into Friday with seasonally warm temperatures in the low to mid 60s. For anyone worrying about a prolonged dry spell, this does not look to be the case. The upper level ridge expected Thurs/Fri will be fairly progressive and is expected to exit eastwards Saturday as a deep upper level trough approaches the West Coast. This upper level trough and associated surface low will then linger offshore of the West Coast Mon/Tues before moving inland by mid-week. This will kickstart the return of rain Saturday afternoon/evening and will keep us rainy through at least mid next week. The question then becomes, well how much rain are we expecting? The answer is a little bit complicated as models have a large spread in forecast precipitation totals. The NBM alone shows quite the spread between the 90th percentile and the 10th percentile. For example, the 24 hour precipitation totals from 4AM Sunday to 4AM Monday under the 90th percentile show widespread 1.5- 3" with up to 5-6" in the coastal mountain ranges. Comparatively, the NBM 10th percentile is much more limited with totals ranging from 0.5-1.5". This hopefully provides some context for why QPF totals are uncertain and may change as we get closer to this system arriving. The initial precipitation forecast forecast shows a widespread 2-4" of rain with locally higher totals between 4-6" across the coastal mountain ranges from Saturday to Wednesday. This matches fairly well with the NBM 50th percentile and the NBM mean. All that to say, the upcoming week is likely going to be a wet one and the precipitation forecast will continue to be refined as we get closer in time to it. We can expect flooding concerns to increase this weekend into next week as we see successive days of accumulating rain. Soils are on the drier end now but will saturate quickly as this event begins. Other concerns for the upcoming week include the potential for gustier winds Sunday into next week. We can expect gusts between 30 to 40 mph on Sunday and potentially again next Tues/Wed. Currently winds are below Wind Advisory criteria but can`t fully rule out that one will be needed. There is a low chance (< 20%) for embedded thunderstorms starting Saturday as we see multiple rounds of rain move through the region. High temperatures will be seasonally cool in the upper 40s to 50s across the region for much of the upcoming week. Morning low temperatures generally stay in the 40s but we can expect cold mornings in the upper 30s to low 40s to return mid to late next week as a colder air mass moves in. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 VFR conditions persist across much of the region this morning with the exception of KLVK where stratus and patchy fog developed within the past few hours. Expecting these conditions to return to VFR by late morning with a slight increase in onshore winds this afternoon and evening. Winds ease into the night and early Friday morning before onshore winds return and increase by Friday afternoon. There is moderate confidence for sub-IFR conditions at KLVK and KSTS Friday morning. There is also moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings at the Bay Area terminals early Friday morning between 12Z- 18Z. Low to moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR at the Monterey Bay terminals early Friday morning. Ceilings and/or visibilities are likely to improve after 18Z Friday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds forecast to return by this afternoon before easing late in the night. Moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings early Friday morning between 12Z-18Z. Onshore winds increase once again by Friday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds forecast to return by the afternoon before easing after sunset. Low to moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR at the Monterey Bay terminals early Friday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 834 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 Winds will generally relax throughout the remainder of the morning with a shift to a fresh northerly breeze developing this evening and continuing into Friday. Moderate to rough seas are forecast Friday into the weekend, with 14 to 18 second period northwest swell coming through the waters. This will equate to hazardous boating and near-shore conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches, excluding the northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and continue through early Saturday morning. A moderate to long period swell will arrive late this evening and will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in addition to breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to visit the beach, remember your beach safety tips. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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