Showers and thunderstorms are expected from Texas to the Northeast through Tuesday. Heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding across the central Gulf Coast into the Appalachians. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions due to gusty winds and low humidity are expected through Tuesday across Oregon and Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Northwest. Read More >
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735 FXUS66 KMTR 250954 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 254 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026 - Below normal temperatures with coastal and higher terrain drizzle today - Upper-level troughing will bring strong northerly winds Tuesday and kickoff a gradual warming and drying trend Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 135 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026 (Today and tonight) The unofficial start of summer sure won`t feel like it. Temperatures will remain well below normal with the help of a 2,500 feet deep marine layer. Stratus will retreat to the coast by late morning with a mix of sun and clouds expected for the interior tomorrow afternoon. Surface troughing and an approaching cold front will even allow for some precipitation - the coast and higher terrain will have the greatest chances with the help of orographic lift. It`ll likely be more in the way of drizzle than light rain; nonetheless, a few hundredths is expected at most. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 135 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Upper-level troughing arrives tomorrow, making it the coolest day of the week. Of more impact will be the northerly (drying) winds. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected along the coast, across ridgelines, and through gaps and passes. Widespread hazardous conditions for small craft will result. As the trough digs into the state Wednesday, it is expected to become a cutoff low that remains near- stationary through Thursday. This will support a gradual warming and drying trend as northerly winds remain in place. Of more interest and potential impact is the thunderstorm threat. Chances are low (10% or less) with the relatively best chances for the far interior. The three necessary ingredients of lift, instability, and moisture will be present. Conditionally unstable lapse rates (~7 degrees C/km) will yield low CAPE (~500 J/kg); with most of it presenting as surface based CAPE, sufficient daytime heating will be needed. The limiting factor will likely be moisture with PWAT values near average. New wildfire starts will be a potential hazard due to fuels being about a month ahead of schedule. The low is expected to fill and become an open wave by Friday, leaving the area under zonal flow with onshore flow over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 919 PM PDT Sun May 24 2026 Stratus has begun to build along the coast and move farther inland over the North Bay. Expect widespread MVFR cigs at all terminals soon after midnight with a robust marine layer and steady onshore flow. Monday lifting of MVFR cigs to VFR will coincide with a notable increase of onshore winds especially for the Bay Area and South Bay terminals out ahead of a developing cold front. Expect breezy to gusty winds Monday afternoon and evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected until midnight with MVFR cigs through the overnight hours into early afternoon, then VFR with increasing onshore winds, gusty at times through Monday evening. Winds out ahead of the advancing cold front offshore are not expected to reach AWW thresholds. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs will persist overnight with higher confidence that KMRY will persist into the early afternoon, when onshore winds increase becoming breezy through the afternoon through sunset out ahead of the advancing cold front to the north with lesser influence this far south. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 254 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026 Light west to northwest breezes continue today and become moderate to fresh northerlies Monday night into Tuesday morning. Northerly winds continue to increase Tuesday into Wednesday becoming strong with near gale to gale force gusts expected for the outer waters. Expect building rough seas on Tuesday and Wednesday, which look to last through the work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...JM MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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