A frontal boundary will slowly move eastward and clear most of the eastern seaboard by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will accompany this front alongside the threat of heavy rainfall; These threats may linger along the Gulf Coast states into early next week. Meanwhile, record spring-like warmth is forecast, mainly east of the Mississippi River, this weekend into next week. Read More >
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493 FXUS66 KMTR 080522 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 922 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 - High temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Sunday - Cool towards climatology for Monday and Tuesday - Second half of next week will bring another warming trend && .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 The high clouds that brought the colorful sunset are clearing. While the lack of clouds will enhance radiational cooling tonight, temperatures will be moderated by the continued warming effect of offshore winds. The SFO-WMC gradient is currently -9.5 mb, a little stronger than expected, but that`s probably about the strongest it will get. A disturbance will flatten out the ridge and bring more zonal flow by Monday. At the surface, the high pressure centered over Utah will gradually weaken over the next 36-48 hours, from 1027 mb to 1016 mb or so. This will allow winds to shift back to an onshore direction, bringing cooler and more humid conditions Monday - Tuesday. If you`re on the coast, you will probably feel the exact moment winds shift back to onshore tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 (This afternoon through Sunday) The upper ridge of high pressure is nosing over North Bay today while an upper low is off the coast of Northern Baja. This is setting up rapidly warming temperatures across a broad swath in North Bay and beyond to the Northeast. As this ridge pushes on the top of the upper low, winds have been gusty across many part of the Bay Area. An upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska is starting to pressure on the ridge, forcing it farther south, thus pushing the cutoff low south too. As everything shifts southward over the next 24 to 36 hours we`ll see the gusty winds shift from North Bay through the Bay Area and eventually into the Central Coast. This too will cause temperatures to follow the ridge axis farther southward too. While Sonoma County has been the warm place today, tomorrow it will be into South Bay and Central Coast. The NBM, for tomorrow, shows limited spread (~2 degrees) in the ensembles for North Bay with wider spread (~3 to 5 degrees) over South Bay and Central coast. This provides some comfort that models are handling the situation well enough. Still, with the forecast today the NBM 5.0 was used for temps tomorrow. This is about what NBM 4.3 75th percentile is at. In other words, the forecast is leaning a little warmer than the operational NBM deterministic. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) Onshore flow returns to the service area Sunday and Monday. This will bring a broad scale cool down for Monday and Tuesday, more towards climatological normals. This a be a result of a synoptic scale pattern shift. The Jet Stream will take a dive south into Oregon, just close enough to impact our general flow. However, this will be brief hit as the Jet shifts quickly east and allows the next upper ridge to build. Models are projecting the next warm up to being on Wednesday, bringing us back to about where we are this weekend. By Friday there is, on average, a 10 degree spread in the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles, so there are still some details to be worked out. That said, the Friday 500 mb height anomaly clusters are in pretty good agreement. On top of that, the EFI and SoT are 0.90+ for South Bay and the Central Coast for Thurs and Fri. At this point, things are looking solid for the warmer side of the solutions during the second half of the week. Teaser...You think this is warm? Wait until the week of the 15th. CPC has our area with 70-80% probability of being above normal between March 15-21. And the whiskers on some of the temp models out that far are starting to reach into the 90s for SJC. If you are a summer person, it`s coming for you. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 921 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period with low probabilities (< 20%) for sub-VFR conditions to return to HAF and STS tonight. Diurnal winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR and calm. High confidence in VFR through most of the TAF period with low probabilities (< 20%) for sub-VFR conditions to return tomorrow night. Diurnal winds will prevail. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at both terminals. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Diurnal winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 847 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026 Winds will increase to a fresh to strong NW breeze Sunday through Tuesday with frequent gusts to gale force across the NW waters. In response to these winds, very rough seas of 12-15 feet will build across the outer waters Monday through Tuesday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...BFG LONG TERM....BFG AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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