A major winter storm will organize across the Northern Plains today and then rapidly strengthen as it moves into the Great Lakes on Sunday. Heavy snow and blowing snow are likely to persist over the Great Lakes into Monday night. Dry and gusty winds will produce a critical fire risk across the central/southern Plains. An early heatwave will begin to intensify over the western U.S. into next week. Read More >
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018 FXUS66 KMTR 150038 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 538 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures and Minor HeatRisk today - An early season, long duration heat wave will bring record breaking temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk through the week - Elevated potential for grass fires due to warm and dry conditions and periods of moderate offshore winds next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1205 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 (This evening through Sunday) The combination of a shallow marine layer and weak, shortwave trough is keeping temperatures slightly cooler today. High temperatures across the interior will be in the 70s with the warmest locations (generally higher terrain) reaching the low 80s. Coastal temperatures are forecast to peak in the low to mid 60s. Low level clouds are currently clearing at a faster rate today than they were at this time yesterday. This is increasing confidence that temperatures for the coast will not need to be adjusted downwards to account for prolonged cloud cover like they were yesterday. A shallow (500 ft) marine layer is likely to redevelop again tonight along the coast before upper level ridging suppresses it next week. This will bring a low potential for fog along the coast tonight into early Sunday morning. High clouds are expected to move in across the region this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Fog/low clouds are not expected to be widespread across the Bay Area overnight but there may be some patchy instances of stratus/fog directly along the SF Bay Shoreline. Overnight lows generally stay in the upper 40s to low 50s across. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1205 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) Sunday marks the start of our heatwave with highs rising into the mid to upper 80s across the interior and 60s to low 70s along the coast. High clouds return overnight Saturday into Sunday which will keep afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast next week. On the synoptic scale, upper level ridging reaches the West Coast late Saturday/early Sunday and will build throughout the day on Sunday. This initially results in a 591 dam upper level high centered just offshore of California. The center of this high will slowly shift eastward Monday through Wednesday before strengthening to 594 dam (500 mb heights) and remaining almost stationary over the Southern California/Arizona border through late next week. The overall forecast for the upcoming heatwave with temperatures running 20-30 degrees above normal remains on track but there are a few changes to address. Initially, the warmest days were expected to be Monday through Wednesday but it now appears more likely that the warmest days will be Wednesday to Friday. This is largely a result of the ridge restrengthening mid to late next week and remaining nearly stationary (compared to earlier in the week) over the desert southwest. The temperature difference between each day is relatively small and each day will be within 1-3 degrees of each other. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the interior and upper 70s to mid 80s along the coastline. The hottest locations will be across interior Monterey and San Benito Counties, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the North Bay Interior Mountains, East Bay Hills, and potentially the southern Santa Clara Valley. Both daily records and potentially all time March records are still on the table Monday through Friday next week. Long range guidance suggests we could see these warmer temperatures extend into next weekend before we see some relief (still above normal but only by 10-15 degrees) the week after. There is the potential to break some upper air records at OAK this week (namely 850 mb temperatures and potentially 500 mb heights). Probabilistic guidance is showing the potential for portions of the higher elevations to reach the low 100s late next week. The most likely areas to break 100 would be the Gabilan Range but the NBM is showing a low (~10%) chance of portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains, the southern Santa Clara Valley (Gilroy/Hollister), and the East Bay Hills reaching 100 as well. This is our first major heatwave of the year and it is going to be a marathon. We are primarily expecting Moderate HeatRisk with some relief overnight from overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. There are patches of Major HeatRisk (impacts most people) in the higher elevations of the Santa Cruz Mountains and interior Central Coast next week. Given the long duration of this heat event, susceptibility to heat related illnesses will increase throughout the week. If you are going to be outside for prolonged periods of time make sure you are drinking plenty of water and allowing time to rest in the shade. Never leave people or pets unattended in the car. If possible, avoid going outside during the peak afternoon heat (approx. 10AM - 4/5PM). Heat Advisories will be in effect for much of the Bay Area and Central Coast Monday through Friday with some potential to expand into next weekend. Expect increased potential for grass fires next week as much above normal temperatures cure small, fine fuels (grass). Offshore winds will remain light to moderate which will help mitigate how much any fires that do develop can grow. If you are participating in any outdoor activities (camping, offroading, hiking, etc) exercise caution when using fire and be aware that the risk of grass fires will be elevated next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Widespread VFR and moderate to breezy winds last into the night. Low CIGs look to form along the coast as winds reduce into the night, affecting MRY and HAF. Spotty CIGs will push into the bays further into the night, bringing CIGs to OAK and SNS in the late night as well as SJC into Sunday morning Cloud cover erodes into the afternoon but hazy conditions look to form in some of the valleys and along the coast. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Moderate to breezy northwest winds linger into the night before reducing. Winds become light and variable into Sunday morning with some slight reductions in visibilities. Northwest winds build again Sunday afternoon and last into late that night before becoming light again. SFO Bridge Approach...IFR-level clouds look form around the eastern SF Bay in the early to mid morning, with the potential for some moving through the approach until the late morning before the clouds clear. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the night before winds become light and LIFR CIGs arrive to MRY. IFR CIGs will be slower to arrive to SNS, but are in the late night and into early Sunday morning. These lower CIGs will also be accompanied by reduced visibilities. VFR returns in the late morning as moderate west to northwest winds build. Slight haze will be possible through much of Sunday. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 The fresh to moderate north/northwest breezes today and Sunday will result in steep fresh swell. Wind and seas will ease over the inner water Sunday afternoon followed by the outer waters on Monday. Wind and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through the remainder of the week into next weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1205 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for March 15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th. Location Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Santa Rosa 88 in 2004 91 in 2004 87 in 1996 84 in 2010 San Rafael 83 in 1972 87 in 1972 84 in 1972 80 in 1996 Kentfield 85 in 2004 86 in 2004 87 in 1914 89 in 1914 Napa 86 in 2004 88 in 2004 92 in 1914 87 in 1914 Richmond 85 in 2004 84 in 1972 83 in 2004 78 in 1996 Livermore 83 in 1972 88 in 1972 87 in 1972 86 in 2004 San Francisco 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 85 in 1914 86 in 1914 SFO Airport 81 in 2004 82 in 2004 82 in 2004 77 in 2004 Redwood City 84 in 2004 84 in 2004 85 in 2004 84 in 2004 Half Moon Bay 74 in 1974 78 in 1972 83 in 2004 75 in 1978 Oakland Museum 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 81 in 2004 San Jose 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 88 in 1914 87 in 1914 Salinas Airport 83 in 1972 87 in 2004 87 in 2004 84 in 1960 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006- 502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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