National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall Continues in Florida; Critical Fire Weather in the Southeast; Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns in Hawaii

Thunderstorms and periods of heavy to excessive rainfall will continue over Florida through Thursday. Gusty winds and low humidity will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions from central Georgia into north-central North Carolina Wednesday. A Kona Low is expected to bring strong winds, widespread heavy rainfall, and flooding concerns to the island chain through the weekend. Read More >

ZOA CWSU Discussion KSFO TAF TDA
AWAITING CWSU INPUT
TAF TDA

KSFO/KSQL METAR
METAR
Area PIREPs
PIREP
   
Satellite Webcams, Ceiling≤030 Prob
Webcams

Click here to reload map


SIERRA 03 Hour Forecast SIERRA 12 Hour Forecast SIGMETs
TANGO 03 Hour Forecast TANGO 12 Hour Forecast
ZULU 03 Hour Forecast ZULU 12 Hour Forecast
Area Forecast Discussion Forecast Maps

161
FXUS66 KMTR 080612
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1112 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions with a marine
layer Wednesday

- Unsettled weather returns as early as Thursday and continues
through the weekend with light to moderate rainfall

- Thunderstorms possible Friday through Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026
(Tonight through Wednesday night)

Wednesday`s weather is brought to you by upper-level shortwave
ridging. The aforementioned ridge`s axis across the state and a
cutoff low right behind it is supporting onshore flow. A modest
marine layer of 1,500 feet was observed on the 00Z April 8th
sounding - this may actually undergo some deepening tonight as
heights ever so slightly begin to fall ahead of the approaching
cutoff low. Nonetheless, a cloudy start can be expected along the
coast and in the valleys with temperatures warming to 5-10 degrees
above normal by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

The aforementioned cutoff low near 38 N, -138 W in the Eastern
Pacific Ocean will kickoff our pattern change on Thursday. Due to
its independence from the jet stream, its exact location and timing
is difficult to say with certainty. Thus, this is a boom or bust
forecast by nature which is evident in the spread between the 10th
and 90th percentiles. For example, 72-hour accumulation for Santa
Rosa between now and 5 PM Friday is forecast to be 0.22" with a 10th
percentile of 0.03" and a 90th percentile of 0.40". No matter how
you slice it, it`s not a lot of rain; however, this provides insight
that rainfall totals will be highly dependent on where rain
showers/thunderstorms develop. The trend has been for an even slower
progression of the surface low to the east. While rain and
thunderstorms on Thursday cannot be completely ruled out with the
outer rain bands, the best thunderstorm chances are now expanding
from Friday into Sunday. Point forecast soundings illustrate that
the profile will be characterized by conditionally unstable lapse
rates yielding low CAPE, high 0-6 km shear, and PWAT values near the
90th percentile. It also shows that thunderstorms will likely be
diurnally driven by surface heating with the most unstable parcel
being the surface parcel. Thunderstorm hazards include lightning,
locally heavy rainfall, erratic/gusty winds, and small hail. Due to
the slow steering motion and training effect of cutoff lows,
localized flooding will be possible if a rain shower/thunderstorm
were to develop. There is high confidence that the cutoff low gets
absorbed with the help of a digging upper-level longwave trough from
the Gulf of Alaska late Friday, but global ensemble clusters diverge
by Saturday on the depth, strength, and type of troughing across the
state. Deterministic ECMWF and GFS are both advertising a surface
low digging down the West Coast and cutting inland in Northern
California. The close proximity to the low would maintain rain and
thunderstorm chances over the weekend. Rainfall totals on the order
of 0.50"-1.00" are expected with up to 2.00" in the coastal ranges.
Heights will begin to rise Monday, kicking off at least a brief
warming and drying trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 957 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Gentle to moderate onshore pattern wind flow will continue to
diminish through the evening hours. MVFR stratus is developing at
the immediate coast and should eventually cover the coastal regions
and parts of the East Bay near OAK, but a compressed marine layer
should allow for less inland development than last night,
particularly in the North Bay interior valleys. Stratus should
retreat to the immediate coast on Wednesday morning with moderate
onshore flow resuming in the afternoon. Expecting more stratus
coverage to develop Wednesday night as an incoming system promotes
the growth of the marine layer.

Vicinity of SFO... Moderate westerly winds continue for a couple
more hours with winds becoming light overnight. Moderate confidence
that the terminal remains VFR overnight, although some low scattered
clouds could intrude into the terminal area. Confidence for stratus
impacts is slightly higher at OAK. Any stratus that develops in the
vicinity will dissipate through Wednesday morning, with the west-
northwest winds returning in the afternoon, with a moderate
confidence for stratus returning in the evening hours into Thursday
morning.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Light winds overnight through Wednesday
morning. MVFR-IFR stratus has developed in patches near MRY and will
expand across the terminals through the night, with impacts
continuing through Wednesday morning. Breezy northwest winds resume
in the afternoon, with MVFR-IFR stratus returning late Wednesday
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 957 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A gentle to moderate northwest breeze and slight to moderate seas
prevail through the night. Winds will remain moderate while
gradually shifting to the southwest from Wednesday through
Thursday ahead of a low pressure system. This system will will
bring disturbed weather with possible thunderstorms on Friday
through Sunday. Winds will increase to a strong NW breeze by
Sunday as subtropical high pressure builds over the Eastern
Pacific.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea




   Select:      24HR Change/Gradients  |  Forecast Gradients   
OSO001
   Select:      MOS/BUFKIT  |  HREF Ceiling  |  WRF RH  |  WRF Ceiling  |  NBM MOS  |  LAMP MOS   






Yesterday ⇛Visible  ⇛Nighttime  ⇛GeoColor+GLM Today
 
24-Hour Temp Change 24-Hour RH Change

⇛Visible  ⇛Nighttime  ⇛GeoColor+GLM

Webcams