A prolonged, dangerous heat wave will persist through the Independence Day weekend across the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. Numerous temperature records are expected. Clusters of severe thunderstorms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic this Independence Day, with potential for widespread damaging winds. Additional severe thunderstorms in the Great Plains. Read More >
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960 FXUS66 KMTR 041140 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 440 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages for Independence Day - Temperatures dip for Sunday and Monday with a slight chance of showers on Sunday, warming trend for the mid to late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Today and tonight) The marine layer stratus is continuing to make its way inland, as the clouds come into the Sonoma County valleys, the Richmond- Berkeley area and down the Salinas Valley. Stratus will make its way into the coastal valleys through the night, retreating to the immediate coastal regions through the post-dawn and afternoon hours before returning this evening and overnight. The weather pattern this Independence Day will be driven by a ridge set up over the Rocky Mountains and a shortwave trough that develops in the eastern Pacific, with California set up in a kind of transition zone between the two. Low temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s in the lower elevations, and rise into the lower to middle 60s across the higher elevations. Today`s highs are generally near to below the seasonal averages with highs in the 80s across the inland valleys, up to the lower to middle 90s in the warmest interior spots, the middle 60s to the upper 70s close to the Bays, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Some breezy onshore winds develop in the afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph through gaps, passes, and the northern Salinas Valley. People planning to celebrate America`s 250th birthday with fireworks or outdoor cookouts should remember their fire safety, obey any local burn bans, and keep a fire extinguisher nearby when playing with fireworks or cooking with open flames. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Sunday through Friday) The long term outlook continues to show a balance between ridging across the Western United States and a series of troughs in the eastern Pacific through the next few days. A shortwave trough will knock down temperatures by a few degrees on Sunday with around five degrees of cooling within the inland valleys. In addition, as a pulse of moisture comes into the Bay Area and Central Coast, a few convective showers could develop Sunday morning and afternoon. High resolution convective models are showing the possibility for showers to come through the region, and the GFS K Index fields show a potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms as the pulse of moisture comes through. However, with dry slots aloft, particularly near the 700 mb level (around 10,000 feet above sea level) and no obvious lifting mechanism besides local topography, confidence is not high enough to introduce probabilities for precipitation or thunder at this time. The oncoming day shift will reevaluate local conditions and make any grid modifications as necessary. Monday will not have a chance for showers, but otherwise conditions should be similar to Sunday. Towards the middle and later parts of the week, temperatures will gradually rise inland as the ridge strengthens and moves into the Desert Southwest, with a particular emphasis on Wednesday and Thursday when local temperature gradients range from the lower to middle 60s at the immediate coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys, to the triple digits up to 105 within the warmest spots of southern Monterey County. CPC outlooks continue to lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages into the middle of July. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Rinse and repeat kinda morning with a similar stratus deck covering the Bay Area. Once again, used a blend of persistence and near term HRRR/HREF. Do expect VFR again this afternoon minus KHAF. Early return of stratus tonight. Conf Moderate to High. Vicinity of SFO...CIGs hold 17-18Z. Gusty onshore develops by 20-21Z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR to MVFR through mid-late morning. VFR this afternoon. Early return this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 436 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Northerly flow will remain over the coastal waters thanks to high pressure anchored the north. Locally hazardous conditions will persist over the outer waters north of Point Reyes through early Sunday due to fresh to strong breezes. Sunday and into Monday gentle to moderate breezes are expected. More widespread stronger winds and seas will build starting Monday night and continuing through the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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