A storm system will bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and flooding threats to portions of the Southern Plains today, the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday, and the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Another Bering system will impact the Alaskan West Coast and Central Interior through the weekend bringing moderate to heavy snow, high winds, and/or some blizzard conditions. Read More >
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302 FXUS66 KMTR 141118 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 318 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 318 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 - Widespread rain returns tonight and continues through much of next week as a series of three storm systems arrive - Strong winds return Sunday and continue through mid-week; Wind Advisory likely for the Central Coast Monday into Tuesday - Turning much colder with mountain snow mid-week and onward && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 314 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 (Today and tonight) High clouds have built in ahead of the approaching upper level trough. This has limited fog development so far this morning to pockets of the North Bay Valley and the Salinas Valley. High resolution guidance shows some potential for fog cover to expand into portions of the East Bay Valleys. The incoming high clouds should help keep the surface insulated enough that widespread fog outside of the favored valleys is unlikely. This morning will be the last dry day of the upcoming week as an upper level trough arrives and ejects the upper level ridge currently over us to the east. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today in part thanks to the incoming high clouds and thanks to a cooler air mass being advected in ahead of this system. Highs will largely be in the mid 50s across the North Bay and upper 50s to low 60s across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rain chances increase late this evening into Sunday with light rain spreading into the North Bay and along the coast. Rain will increase overnight Saturday into Sunday with light to moderate rain spreading across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Winds strengthen Saturday night with widespread gusts between 20 to 30 mph. Locally higher gusts 30 to 40 mph are expected across the higher terrain with some potential for locally stronger gusts across the Santa Lucia Range where a coastal jet looks to set up offshore over the marine environment. A 10-20% chance of embedded thunderstorms exists tonight across the marine environment and directly along the coastline. The highest chances will be offshore but there is still the potential for a thunderstorm or two to develop over land tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 314 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Widespread moderate to at times heavy rain will expand across the region Sunday morning and continue through Monday as the first of a series of three storms moves through the region. This first system will bring around 1-2" of rain to the lower elevations and 2-4" across the coastal mountain ranges. Locally higher totals to around 5" are expected in the Santa Lucia Range where the heaviest rain is expected to occur. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall is in effect Monday for the Central Coast and South Bay with a slight risk of excessive rainfall extending along the coast from the Monterey Peninsula into southern California. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar to Saturday in the mid 50s to low 60s, however, temperatures will be noticeably cooler by Monday. Temperatures drop everywhere into the low to mid 50s with the portions of the elevated terrain staying in the 40s. At the same time, widespread gusts to 30 to 40 mph spread across the region on Sunday, briefly diminish overnight, then restrengthen during the day on Monday. The combination of cooler temperatures, gustier winds, and rain will make being outside feel much cooler than highs in the 50s suggest. The next system will arrive Monday night and continue through Wednesday with an additional 1-1.5" of rain expected across the region with an additional 2-3" across the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible with a 10- 20% chance continuing each day this week. Low level shear is much weaker compared to what was observed in December so rotating thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. This system will be much colder as a colder air mass from the Gulf of Alaska advects in. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s while low temperatures drop into the 30s Tuesday morning before becoming more widespread Wednesday morning. Cold Weather Advisories will be needed for at least the North Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast. This is likely to extend into other portions of the Bay Area by late week as overnight temperatures continue to cool. Winds remain gusty as this next system arrive with widespread gusts between 30 to 40 mph expected. A Wind Advisory for 40+ mph gusts will be needed for portions of the Central Coast (particularly the Santa Lucia Range) Monday night into Tuesday where a low level jet will be oriented perpendicular to the coastline. Confidence is slightly lower that a Wind Advisory will be necessary for the rest of the Bay Area but cannot fully rule out the higher elevations and areas directly along the coastline needing one as well. Winds then diminish throughout the day on Wednesday. A third weaker system arrives Thursday and generally brings light rain, up to half an inch, to the region. Flooding concerns will initially start out low but will increase with each successive day of rainfall. While the heaviest rain is expected between the first two systems, any flooding already occurring will be made worse by the additional light rainfall late this week. Mainstream rivers show a low (< 10%) chance of minor flooding occuring at the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees, Pajaro River at Chittenden, and Salinas River at Spreckles. With the much cooler airmass moving in early this week, snow levels will drop to around 2000 ft (far North Bay) and to around 3000 ft across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. This is increasing the likelihood of snow across the highest peaks of Mt. St. Helena/Mt. Hood/Mt. Vaca, the eastern Santa Clara Hills, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia Range, and the Gabilan Range. Snow accumulations across the highest peaks will be between 2-7" with locally higher totals in the Santa Lucia Range and the Gabilan Range. There is the potential for some light accumulating snow within the Santa Cruz Mountains which may result in some snowfall along Highway 9 and nearby mountain communities. The overall snowfall forecast will continue to evolve as we get within range of the high resolution models. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, there is some potential for higher end snowfall scenarios to take place if a more convective band is able to develop. Make sure to stay up to date on the forecast to see how this forecast continues to evolve. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 936 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 Coastal stratus continues to push inland, though the cloud deck has recently scattered out over the bay area terminals. This will very likely be temporary before a more robust push of marine stratus moves in overnight. Model guidance has generally backed off on visibility impacts, but has also held onto the lower IFR and MVFR ceilings longer into the day Saturday. Southerly winds will gradually ramp up through the afternoon of a cold front that will bring significant aviation weather impacts on Sunday. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings persisted for about 6 hours this evening before recently scattering out. It`s a little difficult to tell how long this improvement will last as high clouds are obscuring a clear satellite based view on the stratus. Webcams show a pretty legit dry air intrusion that should last for a couple hours before the cooler humid air brings more stratus back in through the morning hours. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...I was a little surprised to see the low clouds clear out this evening, but they will certainly return overnight. A layer of overcast high clouds has moved in, which will help limit fog formation overnight and the SNS TAF looks better than it did at 00Z. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 314 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 Storm systems will move through the region starting tonight and last through much of the week. This will bring hazardous conditions across the coastal waters starting late Saturday. By Sunday expect periods of heavy rain while a strong southerly breeze generates rough seas. After frontal passage winds will shift to westerly and quickly restrengthen to fresh to strong through mid week as a high westerly swell arrives. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front, and return again in the early work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 945 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 Hazardous beach conditions are expected at Pacific Coast beaches, excluding the northern Monterey Bay, through Saturday morning. A moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, and NEVER turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST early this morning for CAZ006-505-509-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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