Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the northern/central Plains through Tuesday afternoon and from the central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. Meanwhile, hazardous heat persists across the South and Southeast. Read More >
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524 FXUS66 KMTR 180649 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1149 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 428 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Slight warming trend continues through Wednesday - Marine layer remains compressed through mid week - Light winds continue to be mitigating factor for Timber Fire && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1145 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 (Today and tonight) Mid/upper level clouds continue to stream from southwest to northeast across our area with mild temperatures expected once again overnight into early Tuesday morning. The mild start to the day will help bump temperatures at least a few degrees (away from the marine layer) higher from Mondays values as the influence from upper level ridging over the Four Corners nudges west. H85 temperatures will be around 23-24C by peak heating which is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. With that, the warmest temperatures will be at higher elevations, especially the East Bay Hills and Santa Lucias, including higher portions of the Timber Fire. Fortunately, light winds continue to be a mitigating factor to more rapid spreading of the fire. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1145 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) Warmer temperatures persist Wednesday under the influence of the aforementioned ridging aloft, however the troughing over the EPAC pushes back east and slightly north by Thursday with a sharpening trough axis well offshore. The cool down for Thursday through the remainder of the extended forecast will be subtle and gradual. There are at least two tropical waves that will pass well to our south, the first on Thursday followed by a more organized wave with tropical development possible by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week. We`ll be keeping an eye on any midlevel moisture advection north from either of the two waves. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 IFR-LIFR stratus is expanding inland with high clouds making it difficult to gauge the extent of the stratus deck in several areas across the North Bay and SF Bay regions, while a moderate northwest breeze persists for a couple more hours. Stratus will generally impact most of the terminals through the overnight period with low confidence of impacts at LVK. May need to monitor observations to see if the high clouds result in impaired stratus development at STS. Stratus will mix out back to the coastal regions on Tuesday morning, with gentle to moderate onshore breezes developing in the afternoon and evening. Tuesday night, expect lower ceilings and less inland stratus development near and beyond the end of the TAF period as the marine layer continues to compress. Vicinity of SFO... IFR stratus continues through the night with lingering moderate winds diminishing in the next couple of hours. The stratus deck will mix out on Tuesday morning with breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon. Tuesday night, the terminal area sits at the edge of where high resolution model output paints the stratus deck, making the forecast for stratus impacts and development time low to moderate confidence. SFO Bridge Approach... Lower confidence for stratus impacts on Tuesday night compared to the terminal area. Otherwise similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR stratus has developed across the region with a decrease to LIFR ceilings expected through the night. The stratus will mix out through Tuesday morning, with some uncertainty on clearing times. Moderate confidence that MRY will scatter out sometime Tuesday afternoon. Light winds will persist through Tuesday morning before gentle to moderate northwest winds resume in the afternoon and evening. Opted for a persistence forecast for IFR-LIFR stratus returning to the terminals early Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 914 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 A fresh to strong northwest breeze will develop tonight and persist through the end of the forecast period. Locally stronger winds are possible in the coastal jet regions north of Point Reyes and along the Big Sur coast. Seas build to 7 to 9 feet by Tuesday and Wednesday before subsiding later in the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The marine layer will gradually compress over the next 24 to 36 hours, as high pressure builds over the region. As a result, nocturnal drying will be possible through at least mid-week for the higher elevations, with more widespread fair to moderate recoveries developing over the higher elevations, especially in and around the Timber Fire. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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