Dangerous and extreme heat will remain across portions of the southern U.S. through the weekend. A heat wave over the Southwest U.S. will intensify this week, peaking and expanding into the Intermountain West and northern High Plains this weekend. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will produce heavy to excessive rainfall with significant flash flooding across portions of southern New England. Read More >
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831 FXUS66 KMTR 300354 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 854 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1153 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 - Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through midweek - Gradual warming through Saturday, with Moderate HeatRisk for our interior locations - Elevated fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bay, Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week - Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Wednesday was almost a repeat of Tuesday with inland heat, cooler temperatures at the coast, and onshore flow gusts of 25-40 mph. One difference occurred over the last few hours as the sun began to set. The N-S pressure gradient between ACV and SFO increased to nearly -5.5mb. Rule of thumb is anything approaching -6mb is pretty decent. As such, the pesky stratus that impacted portions of the coast for most of the day went poof. Last few images of the visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds near Monterey Peninsula, but elsewhere is cloud free. The next logical question is, do the marine layer clouds return tonight? Current forecast says yes, but the latest incoming model guidance says hold on. 00Z HRRR and HREF are trending with less clouds returning overnight. Always hard to bet against stratus, but in this case the update overnight will likely trend less clouds by Thursday morning. Highest conf at this point returning stratus will be Monterey Bay/Salinas Valley/Big Sur Coast. Otherwise, no update needed. MM && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 225 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 (This afternoon through Thursday) Water vapor imagery continues to show our deep trough over the West Coast this afternoon, with predominately clear and sunny skies prevailing across the state. Visible imagery does show the marine layer lingering along a good portion of the coast, including the San Francisco and San Mateo Coasts as well as the Southern Monterey Bay. In fact, we are still trapped in the low clouds down here, with Monterey only hitting 63 degrees so far. Inland areas though have warmed nicely though, with temperatures within a degree or two of where they were at this time yesterday. Gusts onshore winds will also prevail through this evening, before gradually weakening overnight tonight. The marine layer will return tonight, with low clouds filling in across the Bay Areas later tonight and tomorrow morning. There are hints that it could make it back into Napa again tonight, but confidence is not as high as yesterday, given the ridge will start to build back into the region on Thursday. Overnight temperatures will be similar to what we saw last night, with most areas seeing temperatures in the 50s, and the coldest spots falling into the upper 40s. The warmer and drier conditions in the thermal belts will also be quite pronounced again, with minimum temperatures struggling to fall below 70 degrees. High pressure will begin to back build into Central California on Thursday, with dry and warmer conditions developing. Most areas will see day time high temperatures increase 3 to 5 degrees on Thursday. However, the marine layer will still help continue to moderate temperatures along the immediate coast, so only expect a degree or two of warming possible there. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 225 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Although this ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the region on Friday and Saturday, the ensembles are suggesting that it will flatten and retreat for Sunday, as the parent low finally moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. As a result, expect our warming trend to continue, especially for inland areas on Friday and Saturday. A very shallow marine layer should remain along the immediate coast these days, with weak onshore flow, helping to moderate temperatures there. As such, they may be slightly warmer, but the greatest warming will occur across the inland areas. At this point in time, the hottest locations look like they will warm to between 100 and 10, while the coast may only see temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. As we move into Sunday, we would normally expect a cool down the flattening of the ridge. However, temperatures don`t really appear to cool much if any across the inland areas on Sunday. Instead, it is more of a plateau, with conditions remaining hot across our inland areas. As this trough moves east on Sunday night into Monday, some weak offshore could develop, especially for North and East Bay on Sunday night and Monday. This means, we could see even warmer conditions for Monday, and will need to watch the extent of this offshore flow, because it could cause even warmer temperatures in San Francisco for Monday than currently advertised. High pressure then re-estabilishes itself for Monday through Wednesday, with 850 mb temperatures climbing to between 27 and 28 deg C. This means inland areas could be down right hot, with the hottest spots potentially as hot as 110. Winds look like they should we weakly onshore for the coast, so believe these areas will continue to be moderated. However, mid 70s may not be out of the question. Palmer && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Coastal stratus lingers along the San Francisco Peninsula and fans southward over the waters and then hugs the northern portion of the Monterey County coastline. Clear skies are found elsewhere, but in the aforementioned cloudy areas, MVFR to IFR ceilings can be found. The marine layer is expected to be around 1000ft again tonight, the question though will be its inland penetration. The highest confidence for MVFR to IFR cigs will be found around the San Francisco Bay and around Monterey Bay, likely seeping into the Salinas Valley. Models hint at stratus trying to form just north of Napa tonight, and given they saw cloudy skies last night, opted to hint at the possibility for tonight. Otherwise, looking at VFR conditions for interior locations and MVFR to IFR for coastal locations and adjacent valleys covered with stratus. Low clouds should burn off by mid to late morning, with another afternoon of mainly sunny skies and breezy onshore winds. Vicinity of SFO...The stratus isn`t as bountiful as it was yesterday afternoon at this time, with much of it being confined to coastal San Mateo County. Clear skies are expected to prevail through the early evening hours, with stratus starting to return to San Francisco`s coast around or after sunset. MVFR cigs may arrive as early as 4Z-6Z, with clouds likely filling int between 7-10Z. Guidance is split on the timing, so opted to go with more of the persistence forecast for stratus tonight and Wednesday morning. Worked the breezy onshore winds in a similar fashion, kept gusty winds through the early evening and tapered them off during the overnight hours. They`ll return on Wednesday, with gusts returning by the early to mid afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...The stratus is slowly retreating to the coast this evening, which may leave KMRY with a couple of hours of VFR conditions. Clouds will return later this evening leading to another night of MVFR to IFR conditions, with a stint of IFR cigs being possible near and shortly after sunrise. KSNS will likely see these conditions too; however, the onset looks to occur after midnight. Any clouds that do form should start to erode by mid to late morning, with guidance showing the potential for VFR conditions tomorrow afternoon. KMRY may be right on the edge of VFR and MVFR cigs, as models show the stratus retreating to coast. Outside of low level clouds, look for breezy onshore winds to continue through sunset, with winds decreasing during the late evening and overnight hours. Another breezy afternoon is expected tomorrow, with gusts up to 15-22kt for KMRY and KSNS. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1015 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Fresh to strong northwest breezes with near gale force gusts persist through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Gale force gusts with moderate seas are expected along coastal jet regions along Big Sur and Point Reyes. Additionally, gale force winds are possible for the northern outer waters by the end of the weekend. Tropical activity produces long period swell across the coastal waters into the weekend. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1015 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Fresh to strong northwest breezes with near gale force gusts persist through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Gale force gusts with moderate seas are expected along coastal jet regions along Big Sur and Point Reyes. Additionally, gale force winds are possible for the northern outer waters by the end of the weekend. Tropical activity produces long period swell across the coastal waters into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of the area through this weekend, and potentially into next week. Overnight RH recovery will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet with values between 35 to 45 percent, with some favored locations struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH will remain critically dry with values between 15 and 30 percent, with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align. && .BEACHES... Issued at 225 PM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 15-17 seconds will continue to impact our coastline over the next several days, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Saturday afternoon. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM....Palmer AVIATION...KR MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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