Catastrophic Super Typhoon Bavi's eyewall has reached Rota and is expected to bring dangerous winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. A Typhoon Warning remains in effect. Heavy to excessive rainfall will continue to bring a flooding threat from coastal Mid-Atlantic to southern New England through Monday. Read More >
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461 FXUS66 KMTR 060704 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1204 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 - Seasonally cool temperatures through Tuesday before a warming trend arrives for the second half of the week - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents Tuesday through Friday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 (Today and tonight) The marine layer clouds have come in pretty far inland, coming into the Sonoma County valleys, across the SF Bay Area and into the hills surrounding Livermore, and down the Salinas Valley. Expect extensive stratus development through the rest of the night, as the marine layer sits around 2000 feet deep, followed by gradual inland clearing through the morning and early afternoon while the coastal areas remain socked in. Zoom out to the larger scale and you`ll find troughing to the west over the Eastern Pacific, ridging to the east over the Intermountain West, and we`re stuck in the middle with them. Temperatures remain below the seasonal averages as the marine layer remains in place and breezy onshore winds develop in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures today range from the middle 70s to the middle 80s in the inland valleys, up to the middle 90s in the warmest interior spots particularly in southern Monterey County, the middle 60s to the middle 70s close to the Bays, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Wind gusts this afternoon reach 20 to 25 mph through favored gaps, passes, and the northern Salinas Valley. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) Tuesday should feature broadly similar conditions to today, with a stronger afternoon breeze possible as the ridge gradually retrogrades and the pressure gradient tightens. Towards the middle and later parts of the week, temperatures will gradually rise inland as the ridge strengthens and moves into the Desert Southwest, with a particular emphasis on Wednesday through Friday when local temperature gradients range from the lower to middle 60s at the immediate coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys, to the triple digits up to 105 within the warmest spots of southern Monterey County. Afterwards, ensemble model cluster analysis continues to support the ridge axis paring back to the Intermountain West for the upcoming weekend, which would support some subtle cooling, although temperatures will remain near to slightly above the seasonal average. As a final note, long period southwest swell will result in hazardous beach conditions Tuesday through Friday; see the BEACHES section for more information. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The evening stratus intrusion is coming in a little faster than last night, indicating a deeper marine layer. All terminals are now expected to develop a ceiling at some point tonight. Vicinity of SFO...Low clouds are closing in from the west, north and east. The terminal is already reporting BKN013, which will fill in and likely lower through the late night and early morning hours. Strong winds will ease over the next few hours. SFO Bridge Approach...The approach is holding on the clear skies for now, but the walls are closing in and it won`t last much longer. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR conditions through the night. SNS will likely clear in the late morning, but it now looks more likely that MRY will hold on to the ceilings through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Moderate NW winds and seas will prevail Monday. NW winds will strengthen through the day Tuesday with a prolonged strong NW breeze expected from Wednesday through Saturday. These winds will build rough wind waves mixed with a low SW swell. && .BEACHES... Issued at 931 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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