Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large hail are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, the Lower Missouri to Lower Ohio Valleys, and across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon and evening. Excessive rainfall may bring flash and urban flooding over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Read More >
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210 FXUS66 KMTR 090744 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Warmer weather continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Today and tonight) Onshore winds are ushering stratus inland. 2.8 mb ACV-SFO and 3.0 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradients support northwest to west winds. The 500 mb high pressure system centered over southern California and northern Mexico will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. Surface warming will mix out much of the stratus today by late morning and afternoon. Daytime highs today will be in the 60s coastside, 60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland. Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to mid 60s at higher elevations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Global model guidance is consistent showing the 500 mb high pressure system beginning to move northeastward Friday through early next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s, 60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will cool to the 50s/60s. Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our forecast area beginning Saturday night and Sunday and lasting through Tuesday night. We`ll continue to monitor the potential for a temporary increase in mid level instability. At the earliest onset of moisture arriving, recent 00z guidance from the NAM and RRFS are mixed, the NAM shows pockets of instability to our southwest late Saturday night to early Sunday, while the RRFS does not show any mucape. 00z GFS continues to show essentially no mucape except occasional pockets of mid-level mucape. We`ll continue to monitor the higher resolution models with each subsequent model run(s). A possible limiting factor for convection over our forecast area is 500 mb height ridging is forecast to extend west from the eastward departing 500 mb high center. If this occurs, broad anticyclonic flow will be present, however can`t completely discount embedded thermal trough(s) within the broad anticyclonic flow given the height field; summer weather systems can be a complex mix in the various layers of the troposphere. There`s currently good agreement in this westward extending 500 mb ridge scenario in the ECMWF and GFS, a good sign for less convective potential. At this time the potential for convection is a low confidence forecast because of the varied output seen so far. Please stay tuned to the latest updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The marine layer is even shallower than expected, bringing IFR and LIFR ceilings to the impacted terminals. On the other hand, the fact that it`s shallow means it will struggle to navigate the terrain and probably won`t reach the more inland terminals. Both ceiling and visibility should worsen throughout the night and early morning, particularly if the winds die down at the coastal terminals. There will likely be a window of clearing for most terminals Thursday afternoon, but it will only last about 6 hours or so before the marine layer stratus returns Thursday evening. Vicinity of SFO...While the marine layer is pretty shallow, it was just deep enough to spill over the peninsula rather than having to fill the Bay first. This led to the earlier ceiling (just after 00Z). Since then it has steadily lowered to high IFR at the moment, and there is no sign that trend will stop. There is a roughly 50/50 chance for LIFR conditions in the few hours around sunrise, indicated by a TEMPO line in the TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Clouds will fill later and clear earlier than the terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals...The ceiling is already 400 feet at MRY, signaling that the ceilings will likely drop low enough to impact visibility through the morning. It looks like there will be enough wind to keep dense fog from forming, but that`s not a guarantee by any means. It`s doubtful MRY clears at all tomorrow, but SNS should have at least a few hours of sunshine in the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Northwest winds remain fresh to strong as embedded near gale force gusts increase into the weekend. Wind driven moderate seas (5-8 ft) build to rough (9-11 ft) this evening into the weekend paired with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue into this weekend. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. The main forecast concern is the lack of instability across our region which may prevent convection from developing. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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