A couple of frontal boundaries will move east and south from the Plains to the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines. These boundaries will focus showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with scattered severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains and across the Gulf Coast states. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur, which may be welcome news across drought areas. Meanwhile, heat spreads westward. Read More >
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218 FXUS66 KMTR 101954 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1254 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026 - Warming and drying trend will continue through Monday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the interior on Monday - Gradual cooling trend and unsettled weather midweek through late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026 (This evening through Monday) Temperatures this afternoon are struggling to reach their forecasted highs. This is as a deeper marine layer around 1500 ft in the North Bay and 2000 ft in the Bay Area and Central Coast developed overnight. Again, where cloud cover lingers or is slow to dissipate across inland areas is where we are most likely to see cooler temperatures than previously forecasted. That said, inland clearing will still allow for temperatures to warm this afternoon as high pressure to the south of the region continues to strengthen. Overnight, temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to mid 50s across most valley locations. Meanwhile, the higher ridges and peaks will likely bottom out in the upper 50s to 60s. If persistence holds, low clouds will fill back inland overnight, yet not expecting as much of an inland penetration as the marine layer is still on track to compress. Monday is still on track to be the warmest day of the week, yet we are seeing less widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. Mondays afternoon maximum temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the interior with cooler conditions near the coast as a shallow marine layer and onshore flow will persist. However, these temperatures could be off by a few to several degrees where cloud cover develops and lingers. Tricky forecast as high pressure aloft supports warming afternoon temperatures, yet the marine influences have been winning out. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) The pattern begins to shift Monday night into Tuesday as a trough of low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Thus, temperatures will cool by several degrees on Tuesday, yet are likely to remain above seasonal averages. A cut-off low pressure system is forecast to develop and move inland Tuesday night and into Wednesday bringing even cooler and unsettled weather to the region. We are still expecting drizzle and/or light rain Tuesday night through Thursday morning as a result of the mid/upper level cut-off low moving inland across northern California or the Bay Area. Rainfall amounts generally will remain less than a few hundredths of an inch or so. More of a zonal flow returns by late week and will persist through the upcoming weekend. This will result in a warming and drying trend through this timeframe. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026 Stratus is receding across the region with most sites to see CIGs clearing between 18/19Z. The question is if we will see clearing at HAF and MRY where continuous stratus feeds may allow overcast conditions to persist through the majority of the TAF period. Breezy afternoon/evening winds are likely again with gusts peaking between 20-25 knots. Locally stronger gusts are possible at SFO but they should stay below 30 knots on the higher end. Winds ease overnight. Stratus has returned early the last few days but models have started shifting tonight`s return to be later in the TAF period with the stratus footprint potentially not as widespread tonight compared to previous nights. This is reflected by the marine layer dropping from around 2000 ft to around 1000 ft. MVFR-IFR CIGs are expected tonight but, especially on the coast, we may see further lowering and decreases in visibility (LIFR) as the marine layer compresses. Vicinity of SFO...IFR with stratus to clear/VFR by 19/20Z. Winds strengthen during the afternoon/evening with gusts to around 28 knots. Model guidance keeps gusts today well below 30 knots but confidence is low to moderate. The SFO-WMC gradient looks to peak around +6-7 mb today which would support decently gusty winds this afternoon and evening. The 28 knot gusts listed in the TAF are on the higher end but SFO has seen gusts to 30-31 knots over the last few days with a much weaker SFO-WMC gradient. There is enough reasonable confidence given persistence and the strengthening SFO- WMC gradient to suggest moderate to strong gusts will redevelop again this afternoon. The stratus forecast is a little lower confidence given the compressing marine layer. The most likely scenario is stratus returning after 06Z and lingering through 17/18Z tomorrow. LAMP guidance suggests some potential for stratus to return as early as 03Z. SFO Bridge Approach....Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR with stratus coverage receding across the Salinas Valley. Similar to yesterday, stratus continues to feed in along the Monterey Bay shoreline (including MRY). MRY is expected to maintain overcast conditions through at least 22Z before potentially remaining clear through 02Z. CIGs return to SNS by late tonight but there is some potential for an early return (02-03Z) similar to MRY. Gusty onshore winds are likely again during the afternoon/evening before winds diminish overnight.&& .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 855 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026 Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwest breeze with occasional near gale force gusts will continue through tonight. Locally gusty conditions are likely across the San Pablo and San Francisco Bays where terrain promotes wind funneling. Winds gradually ease starting late tonight across the inner waters then across the outer waters tomorrow becoming a moderate northwest breeze. Winds increase and seas build mid to late week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm- Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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