Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic States. Excessive rainfall from heavy thunderstorms may produce areas of flash flooding from southern New Mexico into the western and northern Gulf Coast into Wednesday. Read More >
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290 FXUS66 KMTR 150620 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1120 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 (This evening through Monday) Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the marine stratus and fog has retreated back to the coast as of early this afternoon. SPC RAP analysis shows a weak shortwave trough encompassing most of CA centered over the Bay Area. The influence of this trough will allow for several degrees of cooling from yesterday across the interior locations. As a result, HeatRisk will also be decreasing, with more widespread Minor HeatRisk throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast, with some localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk reserved for the Central Valley and East/South Bay locations. The aforementioned shortwave trough will quickly advect eastward overnight tonight with a ridge building in the Eastern Pacific. As the ridge builds and influences our region, temperatures will warm a few degrees tomorrow. But, HeatRisk will remain widespread Minor with localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk across the region on Monday. The marine layer is expected to be around 1500 feet again overnight tonight/tomorrow morning (similar to last night/this morning). Therefore the marine stratus and fog is expected to behave similar to that of last night/this morning. High tide coastal flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low-lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle of the week. Tide levels are forecast to rise up to 2.0 feet above normal into the middle of the week. This increase is driven by multiple contributing factors, including Sunday`s new moon and lunar perigee, ~ 7 inches of tidal anomaly from storm surge and thermal expansion in the Eastern Pacific, and ~ 2 inches of sea level rise since vertical datums were established in the 1980s/1990s. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (which peaked at 2.6 ft), these tides could end up being the highest observed in the summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1206 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 (Tuesday through Saturday) The Eastern Pacific ridge will strengthen slightly, maxing out on Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to warm another degree or two on Tuesday, but HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged (with widespread Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk). Another pattern change is anticipated as we head into the latter half of the week as the ridge breaks down and a closed low forms off the coast of northern California. This low is expected to become an open wave by the end of the workweek, with the base of the trough moving through our area this weekend. The low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures to the region. As a result, HeatRisk will become widespread Minor with localized areas of little to no risk as early as Thursday. The ordinary marine stratus is expected to continue to blanket the usual spots through the majority of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The coastal stratus deck is set to impact the region overnight, except for LVK and the interior East Bay valleys. The stratus deck is expected to be about 1000 feet deep through the overnight hours which will bring IFR-MVFR ceilings to most terminals through Monday morning. Medium confidence on the exact timing of stratus impacts. Overnight winds will be locally influenced by the surrounding terrain of the terminals, though they are expected to remain as light to gentle breezes. Winds will gradually increase by late Monday morning to a moderate westerly breeze and persist through the afternoon. Another round of MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated Monday night, though it is not expected to be as widespread. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions paired with a gentle westerly breeze persists until ~11Z, which is roughly when the surrounding stratus deck will begin to fill in over SFO. When it does, conditions will transition to IFR until Monday morning. Onshore winds increase to moderate strength (~15 kt) by the afternoon and diminish by the evening. Medium confidence on timing of stratus impacts as some model guidance hinted at an earlier onset by a couple of hours. I settled on a later timing based on the trend from previous nights. SFO Bridge Approach...Wind pattern is similar to SFO, but will have more of a NW component. MVFR-IFR ceilings settle in earlier than SFO (~08-09Z) and are expected to dissipate at roughly the same time. Vicinity of OAK and SJC...Current satellite imagery is showing some low stratus formation east of OAK. Coastal stratus is also beginning to make its way towards SJC from the west. IFR ceilings are expected to impact OAK first and SJC second with gentle westerly breezes overnight. Conditions shift back to VFR by late Monday morning and west to northwest winds increase to 10-12kt as well. Higher confidence for stratus to return at OAK Monday night, meanwhile SJC remains VFR through the TAF period. Monterey Bay Terminals...Borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings impact the region and are expected to become IFR overnight until late Monday morning. Moderate onshore winds persist through the afternoon with SNS experiencing frequent gusts up to 20 kts. Medium to high confidence on stratus returning to both terminals Monday night as the onshore winds diminish. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 414 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Southerly breezes and moderate seas continue with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will remain fairly consistent to Monday as the seas subside. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters towards the beginning to middle of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1230 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area coast from late tonight through late Tuesday night. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Berislavich LONG TERM....Berislavich AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Malarkey Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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