A slow moving weather disturbance will continue to bring periodic rain showers, a few isolated thunderstorms, and a localized flash flooding across the Southwest. The threat will expand into the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Moderate to heavy snow across the Sierra Nevada and southern Utah Ranges will continue into the overnight period. Read More >
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162 FXUS66 KMTR 190529 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 929 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Mainly dry weather through Wednesday, with a few isolated showers being possible. - More beneficial type rain late Wednesday through Thursday. - Dry weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 833 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 An upper level low will remain located over southern California tonight into Wednesday while high pressure moves in across our forecast area from the northwest. High pressure will bring dry weather along with night-time radiative cooling resulting in patchy fog during the overnight and Wednesday morning. Newly arriving 00z forecast guidance agrees with previous guidance that the dry weather break will be temporary. Another low pressure system is forecast to arrive from the northwest later Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday bringing more wet weather to our forecast area. For additional info on the forecast please see the previous discussions. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level troughing will slowly swing through southern CA today and tomorrow, while weak upper level ridging quickly builds and then flattens. Radar thus far has shown a few showers develop over southern Monterey and San Benito counties, while elsewhere we have a mix of sunny skies and fair weather cumulus. Tonight, skies should clear and given the moisture we may see some valley fog. Tomorrow, deterministic models suggest a weak disturbance passing over head, which may bring some high clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers to the region. Otherwise quiet weather prevails until the next system approaches the PacNW. Rain chances begin to increase for the North Bay during the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The aforementioned upper level low will bring a round of beneficial rain late Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall amounts continue to be around 0.25" for the North Bay counties, with perhaps slightly higher amounts in elevated terrain. Elsewhere, amounts look to anywhere from 0.1- 0.25", with lower amounts expected for interior locations. The Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia mountains may see slightly higher amounts. Once this system exits the region, ensemble and deterministic models show upper level ridging building in for the weekend. Given additional moisture from the rain, we should see some night and morning fog. The ridge will also bring temperatures up a few degrees putting most areas near or above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 918 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 Low clouds are moving in from the coast, driven by a mesoscale low pressure system near Bodega Bay. These clouds will impact many terminals with MVFR ceilings overnight, but they should help limit fog formation. Towards the end of the TAF period southerly winds will begin to increase as a cold front approaches from the NW Wednesday night. Vicinity of SFO...Winds have decreased to a gentle onshore breeze and the terminal has dodged ceilings for now. As the night goes on, the chance for high MVFR or low VFR ceilings increases, particularly in the hours around sunrise. If these ceilings form, they will lift in the late morning. It now looks like southerly winds will persist through the majority of the TAF period once they become established. The cold front will bring another round of lower ceilings and some light rain late in the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...A small pesky patch of stratus at MRY is making the short term forecast challenging. While the ceilings may clear in the short term, the overall trend is for a more robust area of stratus to move over the terminal early Wednesday morning. The ceiling height is a little uncertain but should be somewhere between FL 015 and 050 through the majority of the TAF period before the low clouds start to clear Wednesday afternoon. The cold front will bring some light rain here as well, but it`s outside of the current TAF window. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 918 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 Buoys are reporting a moderate northerly breeze and rough seas. The winds will shift to a gentle southerly breeze Wednesday, allowing rough seas to subside for a brief favorable weather window. Late Wednesday an approaching cold front will cause the southerly breeze to increase to moderate before increasing and flipping back to a fresh to strong NW breeze as the front passes early Thursday morning. The winds will gradually diminish through the day Thursday as a very high NW swell up to 15 feet arrives. This swell will stick around for a while, very gradually subsiding through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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