A storm system will bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and flooding threats to portions of the Southern Plains today, the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday, and the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Another Bering system will impact the Alaskan West Coast and Central Interior through the weekend bringing moderate to heavy snow, high winds, and/or some blizzard conditions. Read More >
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603 FXUS66 KMTR 141810 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1010 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 318 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 - Widespread rain returns tonight and continues through much of next week as a series of three storm systems arrive - Strong winds return Sunday and continue through mid-week; Wind Advisory likely for the Central Coast Monday into Tuesday - Turning much colder with mountain snow mid-week and onward && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 Today will be the proverbial calm before the storm. Somewhat chilly to begin the weekend as overnight lows bottomed out in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Not expecting much in the way of temperature rebound this afternoon with high temps struggling to reach seasonal averages with many locations below to well below normal. Highs will top out in the mid 50s to mid 60s, and 40s in the mountains. Why the temp struggle? Ample clouds overspreading the region ahead of the next storm system lurking on the horizon will limit insolation during peak heating. Speaking of the next system, lots of great details below. The first drop of precip is still slated for the North Bay later this evening. If you have outdoor activities, plans, jobs, today is the day to do it. The storm door opens and remains open for much of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 314 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 (Today and tonight) High clouds have built in ahead of the approaching upper level trough. This has limited fog development so far this morning to pockets of the North Bay Valley and the Salinas Valley. High resolution guidance shows some potential for fog cover to expand into portions of the East Bay Valleys. The incoming high clouds should help keep the surface insulated enough that widespread fog outside of the favored valleys is unlikely. This morning will be the last dry day of the upcoming week as an upper level trough arrives and ejects the upper level ridge currently over us to the east. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today in part thanks to the incoming high clouds and thanks to a cooler air mass being advected in ahead of this system. Highs will largely be in the mid 50s across the North Bay and upper 50s to low 60s across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rain chances increase late this evening into Sunday with light rain spreading into the North Bay and along the coast. Rain will increase overnight Saturday into Sunday with light to moderate rain spreading across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Winds strengthen Saturday night with widespread gusts between 20 to 30 mph. Locally higher gusts 30 to 40 mph are expected across the higher terrain with some potential for locally stronger gusts across the Santa Lucia Range where a coastal jet looks to set up offshore over the marine environment. A 10-20% chance of embedded thunderstorms exists tonight across the marine environment and directly along the coastline. The highest chances will be offshore but there is still the potential for a thunderstorm or two to develop over land tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 314 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Widespread moderate to at times heavy rain will expand across the region Sunday morning and continue through Monday as the first of a series of three storms moves through the region. This first system will bring around 1-2" of rain to the lower elevations and 2-4" across the coastal mountain ranges. Locally higher totals to around 5" are expected in the Santa Lucia Range where the heaviest rain is expected to occur. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall is in effect Monday for the Central Coast and South Bay with a slight risk of excessive rainfall extending along the coast from the Monterey Peninsula into southern California. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar to Saturday in the mid 50s to low 60s, however, temperatures will be noticeably cooler by Monday. Temperatures drop everywhere into the low to mid 50s with the portions of the elevated terrain staying in the 40s. At the same time, widespread gusts to 30 to 40 mph spread across the region on Sunday, briefly diminish overnight, then restrengthen during the day on Monday. The combination of cooler temperatures, gustier winds, and rain will make being outside feel much cooler than highs in the 50s suggest. The next system will arrive Monday night and continue through Wednesday with an additional 1-1.5" of rain expected across the region with an additional 2-3" across the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible with a 10- 20% chance continuing each day this week. Low level shear is much weaker compared to what was observed in December so rotating thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. This system will be much colder as a colder air mass from the Gulf of Alaska advects in. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s while low temperatures drop into the 30s Tuesday morning before becoming more widespread Wednesday morning. Cold Weather Advisories will be needed for at least the North Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast. This is likely to extend into other portions of the Bay Area by late week as overnight temperatures continue to cool. Winds remain gusty as this next system arrive with widespread gusts between 30 to 40 mph expected. A Wind Advisory for 40+ mph gusts will be needed for portions of the Central Coast (particularly the Santa Lucia Range) Monday night into Tuesday where a low level jet will be oriented perpendicular to the coastline. Confidence is slightly lower that a Wind Advisory will be necessary for the rest of the Bay Area but cannot fully rule out the higher elevations and areas directly along the coastline needing one as well. Winds then diminish throughout the day on Wednesday. A third weaker system arrives Thursday and generally brings light rain, up to half an inch, to the region. Flooding concerns will initially start out low but will increase with each successive day of rainfall. While the heaviest rain is expected between the first two systems, any flooding already occurring will be made worse by the additional light rainfall late this week. Mainstream rivers show a low (< 10%) chance of minor flooding occuring at the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees, Pajaro River at Chittenden, and Salinas River at Spreckles. With the much cooler airmass moving in early this week, snow levels will drop to around 2000 ft (far North Bay) and to around 3000 ft across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. This is increasing the likelihood of snow across the highest peaks of Mt. St. Helena/Mt. Hood/Mt. Vaca, the eastern Santa Clara Hills, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia Range, and the Gabilan Range. Snow accumulations across the highest peaks will be between 2-7" with locally higher totals in the Santa Lucia Range and the Gabilan Range. There is the potential for some light accumulating snow within the Santa Cruz Mountains which may result in some snowfall along Highway 9 and nearby mountain communities. The overall snowfall forecast will continue to evolve as we get within range of the high resolution models. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, there is some potential for higher end snowfall scenarios to take place if a more convective band is able to develop. Make sure to stay up to date on the forecast to see how this forecast continues to evolve. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period. High clouds will continue to stream across the region as a low pressure system approaches the coast late in the day. Looking for a delay in precipitation by about 3-6 hours across the board, with VCSH across the North Bay by 06Z Sunday which will spread inland and southward throughout the day on Sunday. Expecting SHRA with mostly VFR conditions with brief periods of MVFR (as low as IFR at times of heaviest rainfall) during the day Sunday. Breezy to gusty southerly winds strengthen into Sunday morning as light to moderate rains begin to arrive. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR to VFR. Southerly winds are forecast throughout much of the day today with dry weather conditions. MVFR ceilings are forecast to improve to VFR late morning to early afternoon and persist through early Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings return around or just before 12Z Sunday as light to moderate rain showers return to the region. Southerly winds will be on the increase throughout the day Sunday with periods of IFR conditions at times of heaviest rainfall. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to VFR. Southerly winds are forecast to become onshore by mid-to-late morning with a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions though the forecast period. Southerly winds will increase Sunday morning ahead of the aforementioned low pressure system. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1008 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 A series of storm systems will move through the region starting tonight and last through much of the week. This will bring hazardous conditions across the coastal waters starting late this evening. By Sunday expect periods of moderate rain while a strong southerly breeze generates rough seas. After frontal passage winds will shift to westerly and quickly restrengthen to fresh to strong through mid week as a high westerly swell arrives. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front, and return again in the early work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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