A clipper storm will move across the Great Lakes through this weekend with periods of light snow, gusty winds, and lake effect snow bands which could make for hazardous travel at times. A frigid airmass will spread eastward behind this storm into the Midwest and Eastern U.S. through the weekend. Read More >
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724 FXUS66 KMTR 170813 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1213 AM PST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM PST Sat Jan 17 2026 - Dry weather, cool mornings, and warm afternoons continue && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1205 AM PST Sat Jan 17 2026 (Today and tonight) Conditions are similar to last night, with a few subtle changes. First, the marine stratus has peeled off the coast. This is thanks to robust offshore flow. The SFO-WMC gradient is -12.3 mb, quite a bit stronger than most models have it analyzed. Mt. St. Helena is reporting ENE winds gusting as high as 47 mph tonight. This and several other mountain stations would actually be in Red Flag Criteria if the annual grasses were cured. This offshore gradient will weaken over the next 36 hours as both the strong surface high over the Rockies and the trough over California weaken. The other difference tonight is high clouds moving in from the south. These will help moderate both the min and max temperature by a degree or two and bring some color to the sunrise and sunset today. Otherwise it will feel very similar to yesterday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1205 AM PST Sat Jan 17 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Sunday will be a rinse and repeat of Saturday. Expect a chilly morning, warm afternoon and some high clouds through the day. This pattern will stick around as the strong ridging that extends all the way to the jet stream will continue through the week. There is a chance for a short wave trough at 500 mb to bring some very light rain Thu-Fri, but it`s looking more and more like that will just be a cloud maker. That little trough is important though. It`s the first domino to fall in the gradual pattern change. The 500 mb flow will likely become more zonal by next weekend. There`s significant disagreement in the ensemble clusters after next weekend, but some solutions bring a legitimate troughing pattern and possible wet weather back for the last week of January. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble IQR has between 1.0-2.5" of rain from the 27th to the 31st at SFO. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026 Surface high pressure continues over the Great Basin resulting in offshore winds. The WMC-SFO pressure gradient is 12.8 mb and SAC-SFO is 0.6 mb. VFR continues in the 06z TAFs except for areas of hazy conditions reducing surface (and slantwise visibility especially at sunrise/sunset) visibility to MVFR. Patchy fog /VLIFR-IFR/ also developing tonight and Saturday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mainly light wind. SFO Bridge Approach...Slantwise visibility may be reduced especially at sunrise/sunset, otherwise similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots tonight and Saturday morning, shifting to onshore 5 to 10 knots late Saturday afternoon. Winds shifting to east to southeast 5 to 10 knots Saturday night and early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 803 PM PST Fri Jan 16 2026 Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will result in gentle offshore breezes. Light seas continue into early next week before the next round of long period swell arrives and brings light to moderate seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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