A storm tracking across the southern U.S. will continue to bring areas of heavy thunderstorms with risks for severe weather and excessive rainfall from Texas to Florida through this weekend. While much of this rainfall will be beneficial to the drought, excessive rainfall may bring areas of flash and urban flooding. Read More >
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830 FXUS66 KMTR 021902 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1202 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026 - Cooler temperatures through the early part of next week with a chance for drizzle and light rain, mainly along the coast - Widespread stratus persists overnight and into the morning through the weekend - Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026 (This evening through Sunday) Satellite imagery showed widespread stratus across the region this morning, in addition to high clouds streaming over the SF Bay Area, gradually eroding across the interior regions into the afternoon hours. This comes as a upper level low builds and strengthens off the West Coast, allowing the marine layer to expand and reinforcing the stratus development across the region. For today, there are some indications that the stratus layer will continue to scatter out, particularly in the inland valleys, but with the interaction with the higher clouds complicating the heating profile, this isn`t a high confidence forecast. As it stands, high temperatures today range from the lower to middle 70s in the interior valleys, around 80 in the southern Salinas Valley, and the upper 50s to middle 60s along the Pacific coast and the Bays. Lower those interior temperatures around 5-10 degrees if the stratus layer does not scatter out today. For tonight, stratus clouds will return to the inland regions, with temperatures dropping into the middle 40s to middle 50s across most of the region, with some lower 40s possible in the coldest regions of southern Monterey County. Conditions will be similarly cool on Sunday as the upper level low starts to edge into California, as high temperatures dip into the middle 60s to lower 70s for the inland valleys, while remaining in the upper 50s to middle 60s along the coast and the Bays. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Sunday evening due to long period northwesterly swell, an increasing risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. See the BEACHES section for more information. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) The upper level low moves across California through Tuesday, resulting in an extended period of cool temperatures, thick marine layers, extensive stratus decks, and a slight chance for light rain and drizzle across the region, but mainly at the coast and within topographically favored locations. As the previous forecaster noted, residual precipitable water from an extension of the jet stream far to the north of Hawaii will move into the Bay Area, with model output showing around 0.9-1" of precipitable water coming to the SF Bay Area Monday night through Tuesday. This is above the 90th percentile value for precipitable water for this time of year. Rainfall totals for this period are generally paltry, with the ensemble model spread at San Francisco International Airport basically anywhere between a trace to near a tenth of an inch with a couple of outlier ensemble members pouring down with up to a half of an inch of rain by Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the upper level low moves into the Great Basin and southern Rockies with ridging building back behind it, leading to a warming and drying trend in the region with highs rising to the 70s and 80s inland. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 AM PDT Sat May 2 2026 MVFR CIGs across much of the region this morning. These conditions will gradually return to VFR by early afternoon for inland terminals. The exception will be coastal TAF sites where we are very likely to see MVFR conditions persist throughout much of the TAF period. Onshore winds return this afternoon before diminishing in the evening. Greater confidence in MVFR CIGs returning early this evening to coastal adjacent valleys and spreading inland across most valleys overnight as the marine layer deepens. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR. Medium to high confidence of VFR conditions returning by early afternoon with onshore winds also increasing. MVFR CIGs are forecast to return this evening and persist through Sunday morning before clearing occurs early afternoon. There is less than a 20% probability for IFR CIGS early Sunday morning. Onshore winds will once again increase Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...May see an earlier clearing across the approach Sunday morning. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR. Medium to high confidence for MRY to remain MVFR while SNS returns to VFR for a brief period this afternoon. Onshore winds will also increase before diminishing after sunset. MVFR CIGs are forecast to return early evening and persist through Sunday morning with a 20%-30% probability of IFR CIGs. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1044 AM PDT Sat May 2 2026 A fresh to strong NW breeze will continue across the northern most outer waters through this afternoon, diminishing to moderate to fresh afterwards. Seas subside this afternoon and into Sunday as winds continue to diminish. Moderate seas and a gentle to moderate NW breeze prevail Sunday into the early work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat May 2 2026 Long period northwest swell, with periods of 15 seconds or above, is expected to arrive along the Pacific coast today. These long period swells increase the risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, particularly as the period between swell impulses results in lulls of around 20 to 30 minutes before larger sets of waves arrive. Due to the dangers, a Beach Hazards Statement for all Pacific coast beaches comes into effect at 11 AM today and remains in effect until 11 PM Sunday night. Never turn your back to the ocean! Don`t be fooled by calmer seas; observe the waves for at least 20 minutes before approaching the coast. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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