Tropical Depression Two is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms will develop and move along a cold front crossing the Upper Midwest Monday, and through the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Read More >
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405 FXUS66 KMTR 200510 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1010 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 - Near or slightly below normal temperatures and higher humidity through the first half of the upcoming week. - The marine layer and mid to upper level cloud cover will continue to help keep temperatures cooler under building high pressure. - Approximately 5% chance of elevated showers with isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Marine layer stratus has retreated back to the coastline as of early this afternoon. Increasing coverage of mid/high level clouds streaming northeast out ahead of an upper level low over the EPAC will continue this afternoon and tonight. Elevated showers can be seen on radar approaching our southern outer marine zones and will continue to remain well off shore for the remainder of today and this evening. However, after midnight, elevated shower activity is possible mainly for the Bay Area and the North Bay through mid- morning Monday. Poor lapse rates and thermal instability will limit the chances for thunderstorm activity. Along with the weak instability, very dry air between 700mb-925mb will likely result in little to no precipitation reaching the ground with only a trace to a few hundredths where any rainfall is measured. Temperatures on Monday will be similar to slightly cooler than todays values with the increased cloud coverage. Expecting a typical stratus intrusion tonight into early Monday morning as onshore flow persists, with high clouds helping to limit some of the radiational stratus cloud top cooling that will result in less mist/drizzle coverage than we saw this morning, and mostly confined to coastal areas. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) Chances for another round of elevated showers with isolated thunderstorms is trending upward. Not currently reflected in the official forecast but subsequent updates may see increases in coverage and intensity by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, mainly across the North Bay and maybe as far south as the Bay Area. The main source continues to be the moisture associated with what will be the remnants of Elida moving north, well offshore of our area by the end of the day Wednesday. Increasing lift, better thermal instability and slightly improved mid-level lapse rates between 7- 7.5 C/km by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night will provide the best chances for elevated thunderstorms and potentially impactful dry lightning. A similar pocket of dry air from 700mb- 925mb will continue to limit beneficial rainfall. A final wave of elevated instability will move into the North Bay once again late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours with potentially improved thermal instability, however less lift and weaker lapse rates, with dry air in the mid-levels continuing to limit precipitation reaching the ground. By Thursday into the weekend, the increased mid-level moisture shifts north and we begin to see drier air aloft with a gradual warming trend into the weekend. However, onshore flow will persist will persist through the extended forecast with typical no- sky-July conditions each night and morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 High clouds are obscuring low level stratus across the region but observations and cameras indicate it is starting to move inland. Pushed back the timing of stratus arrival for Bay Area sites slightly with the thinking being high clouds are slowing down the arrival of low level stratus. Confidence is mixed as to if stratus will reach SJC and LVK so have included a tempo for stratus at SJC but not at LVK. Stratus is forecast to start out MVFR but will compress to IFR overnight. LIFR conditions and fog are possible along the coastline. Conditions improve by late morning with the exception of the coast where some models indicate stratus could linger through the entire day. The marine layer compresses to around 1000 ft tonight (and again tomorrow night) so we can expect stratus to return late tomorrow evening for most sites. Diurnally breezy onshore winds continue. Vicinity of SFO...High clouds are streaming into the Bay Area with cameras showing stratus approaching SFO. Highest confidence in stratus making it to SFO around 08Z but it may arrive as early as 06Z. Most likely MVFR CIGs but IFR CIGs may temporarily develop during the early morning hours. Clearing will take place by the late morning and remain VFR through the rest of the day. Models indicate some potential for stratus to return tomorrow night but confidence is mixed this far out given the compressing marine layer and high level clouds. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR conditions to persist through the late morning with some potential for reductions in visibility and fog overnight. Highest confidence in reduced visibilities to around 2-3SM but the LAMP model does show dense fog developing during the early morning hours. Clearing will take place by late morning with SNS around 17Z and MRY around 19/20Z before stratus returns early that evening. The MRY TAF is on the more optimistic side in terms of clearing with LAMP guidance keeping stratus over the site through the entirety of tomorrow. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Slight to moderate seas and a gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze will persist through the upcoming workweek. Long period southerly swell is forecast to increase due to tropical cyclone activity across the Eastern Pacific. Southerly swell heights are anticipated to remain in the slight category but mixed seas may result in hazardous boating conditions through the week. Additionally, there are non-zero chances for high based showers which could result in pockets of gusty outflow winds and subsequent steep seas now through mid-week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Near to slightly cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the week with typical diurnal intrusion of the marine layer each night and retreat to the coast each morning as onshore flow persists. However, above 1500-2000ft we`ll see relatively weak thermal belting the first half of the week with continued warm overnights and poor RH recovery at higher elevations. Guidance is trending toward an increasing potential for elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Chances are below 5% in the official forecast but may increase in subsequent updates tonight and Monday. The primary concern is dry lightning strikes across the North Bay, with lesser chances farther south into the Bay Area. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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