Severe weather and flooding threats will continue for portions of the central U.S. through Thursday, focused from the central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Hot and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns for the Intermountain West, and dry thunderstorms may spark additional wildfires. Dangerous heat will build across the southern U.S. Friday into the weekend. Read More >
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565 FXUS66 KMTR 250701 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1201 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 - Continued mild and dry for Thursday with winds increasing through the day - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a deeper marine layer for Friday and Saturday - Gusty onshore winds continue to increase, peaking Friday and Saturday, with mountain passes gusting as high as 50-60 mph and marine concerns through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 (This morning through Friday night) The marine layer continues to slowly compress into this morning to around 800-1200ft, with slightly less stratus inundation expected. Patchy fog again is possible along the coastal terrain. Upper-level troughing will begin to push in today, with heights slowly falling. Temperatures overall will be fairly similar to Wednesday, maybe 1 to 3 degrees cooler due to the decreasing heights. A more significant cooldown will arrive Friday as heights continue to fall with the approaching low to the north. While the low stratus will dissipate, an increase in mid to high level clouds is expected through the end of the workweek as moisture increase with the upper-level trough deepening over the West Coast as a large upper-level low sweeps down the Canadian coastline. Gusty onshore winds could begin as early as this afternoon, increasing through the night. A frontal passage Friday could bring about 40-50+ mph winds for mountain passes and wind-prone spots, and 30-35 mph winds for the coastal waters. Low and mid-level moisture will surge in Friday as well, with a deepening marine layer and 50%+ min RH for every location except the very far interior spots. As a result, fire weather concerns will be limited with excellent overnight recovery into Saturday morning. Spotty drizzle and light rain are possible, although, little to no rain accumulation expected. The long-period southerly swell impacting the Pacific Coast beaches continues to slowly subside. While the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents has decreased, they could still occur...never turn your back to the ocean. The southerly swell is expected to subside through the end of work week before increasing again by the weekend. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) The cooler pattern with gusty onshore winds continue into the weekend, with ample moisture and deep marine layer limiting heating. Saturday will be the coolest day of the period and highs will be about 2 to 4 degrees cooler than Friday, with 50s near the coast and 60s to low 70s further inland. Again, spotty drizzle and rain is possible. While troughing pattern is looking to linger longer over the western US, a slight warming trend is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into next week as the the upper low departs and heights increase slowly. Ensemble members continue to trend more in favor with a troughing pattern prevailing into early week which would support a minimal to slow warming trend compared to the cooler weekend. Lingering breezy winds on Sunday will also trend down into next week as the gradient relaxes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 923 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Onshore breezes will usher stratus /MVFR-IFR/ inland tonight and Thursday morning. Stratus mixes out to the coastline with conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Thursday morning and afternoon. Coastal stratus redevelops Thursday night and Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /IFR/ prevails tonight and Thursday morning with mix out to VFR 17z Thursday. Stratus /IFR/ returns Thursday evening and night. West wind decreasing to near 10 knots tonight and Thursday morning. West wind near 20 knots Thursday afternoon to mid evening then decreasing to 10 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...For SJC Airport VFR for the evening, then stratus /MVFR/ develops overnight then mixes out to VFR 17z Thursday. Northwest wind near 10 knots decreasing to light and variable wind Thursday morning then northwest 12 knots Thursday afternoon and early evening. For OAK Airport stratus /IFR/ prevails tonight and Thursday morning, mixing out to VFR 19z. Stratus /IFR/ returns Thursday evening and night. West wind 5 to 15 knots. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ prevails tonight and Thursday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR late Thursday morning and afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ redevelops Thursday night. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 915 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will resume across the waters tonight through the latter part of the week. Occasional gale-force gusts will develop along the coastal waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts will develop tonight and continue through at least early Friday. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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