Dangerous, record-breaking heat will intensify across most of the central and eastern U.S this week. Heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees. Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the central High Plains. Critical fire weather conditions will continue across portions of the Four Corners and Great Basin. Read More >
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145 FXUS66 KMTR 012342 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 442 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 - Cooler than normal temperatures through Thursday with breezy afternoon winds. - Gradual warming through Independence Day with pleasant conditions and temperatures returning back to near-normal. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) GOES-West visible imagery offers a similar snapshot compared to yesterday with marine stratus blanketing the Pacific Coast. The one difference to point out would be a thin shield of high clouds passing over the northern third of the Golden State. All in all, a very pleasant day on-tap for the San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast with minimal weather impacts to speak of. High temperatures will land in the 50s and 60s along the immediate Pacific Coast, warming to the 70s and 80s for interior locations. The synoptic picture features a trough over Western North America with a strong ridge over the Eastern United States. The trough axis has remained quasi-stationary over the last several days, which has promoted the overall tranquil late June, and now, early July weather. The trough will weaken on Thursday as the Eastern Pacific returns to more zonal flow aloft. That said, tomorrow will be largely a repeat of today with marine stratus for the coast and mostly clear conditions inland. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) Upper-level pattern will transition to zonal flow on Friday/Saturday as 500 mb heights begin to increase. This will correspond to some synoptic warming at the surface, mainly for inland locations, through Saturday. Overall, this warming will just return interior communities closer to early July climatology. In fact, HeatRisk for Independence Day will remain Low (green) along the coast and Minor (yellow) inland with the usual coastal stratus. Ensembles advertise ridging over the Desert Southwest late weekend and early next week. Still do not foresee much in terms of HeatRisk beyond the Minor (yellow) and very isolated Moderate (orange) categories for central and northern California through early next week. According to the National Blend of Models, the only local areas with at least 20% probability of exceeding 90 deg F through next Tuesday are confined to far eastern Contra Costa, southern San Benito, and southern Monterey Counties. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Stratus with MVFR ceilings have returned along the immediate and will quickly expand around along the immediate coast. Elsewhere, expect a few high clouds but otherwise clear skies and VFR conditions this afternoon. Locally breezy onshore winds continue this evening before decreasing overnight. Stratus, mainly MVFR ceilings with localized IFR, will redevelop tonight into Thursday morning with increased inland extent compared to this morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the evening. Moderate confidence in MVFR ceilings briefly returning Thursday morning. Winds will increase to around 15 kt again Thursday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions through the evening. Confidence is moderate that MVFR stratus will return late tonight into Wednesday morning at OAK. At SJC, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through Thursday morning, but there is a low potential for MVFR ceilings to develop. Tonight, winds decreasing and becoming west to southwest at OAK, and southeast at SJC. Thursday afternoon winds are expected to become northwest at SJC again by 21 or 22Z. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR stratus is expected to return quickly this evening at both SNS and MRY. Breezy afternoon winds, southwest at MRY and northwest at SNS, decreasing this evening. VFR conditions are expected to return in the afternoon on Thursday although confidence is low on this. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1044 AM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 A gale warning continues for the northern outer waters while weaker, yet still gusty winds affect the rest of the waters. Gale force gusts across the northern outer waters will ease tonight. Moderate northwest breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough to very rough seas will continue in the outer waters today and tonight before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...MK MARINE...Tangen Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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