Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms appear likely Tuesday across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph as the primary threat. Heavy to excessive rainfall may lead to considerable flash and urban flooding impacts Tuesday across portions of the Ohio Valley. A Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall has been issued. Read More >
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975 FXUS66 KMTR 110745 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1245 AM PDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM PDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Up to a 15% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday across the Central Coast - Cooling trend through Thursday, gradual warming trend Friday through the weekend will bring well below normal temperatures - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Tue Aug 11 2026 (Today and tonight) Cooling trend continues today as upper-level shortwave troughing deepens off the West Coast. The associated lift will deepen the marine layer and bring a chance for drizzle to coastal areas. The Timber Fire in Big Sur will continue to bring smoke and haze to the Central Coast via light southwesterly transport winds from the aforementioned troughing. Ample moisture and sufficient instability will bring up to a 10% chance for elevated rain showers tomorrow. The relatively greatest chances are across the Interior Mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties. The primary hazard would be erratic/gusty outflow winds with dry low levels and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Minor coastal flooding is expected during the highest high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Tue Aug 11 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) A reinforcing trough Wednesday will bring widespread below normal temperatures, deepen the marine layer further, and bring chances for coastal drizzle through Thursday. It may also act as the trigger for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms as it overlaps with an influx of monsoonal/sub-tropical moisture and sufficient instability. The best chances are across the Central Coast on Wednesday, more specifically the southern and eastern portions. While confidence is low, this would be a high-impact scenario with erratic/gusty outflow winds and the potential for new fire starts. A gradual warming trend is expected Friday through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds in from the southeast; however, temperatures will still remain well below normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 VFR across all terminals except Monterey Bay sites and KHAF. The marine layer will continue to gradually increase through the forecast period with increased coverage expected than what was seen last night into this morning. Local offshore eddys will complicate timing once again, especially for the Bay Area. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with until after midnight with local offshore eddys continuing to complicate exact timing of stratus. The marine layer is expected to progress farther inland tonight. KOAK may not see MVFR/IFR ceilings until the predawn hours with KSFO potentially not being impacted despite more extensive coverage of stratus due to the eddys. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through the remainder of the overnight with a slight chance of continuing through the entire forecast period as the marine layer gradually increases through the day tomorrow with steady onshore flow, breezy at times in the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue to produce rough seas up to 13 feet across the northern outer waters through Thursday. Long period southerly swell will gradually increase from 15 seconds through the middle of the week, up to 19 seconds by Friday into Saturday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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