Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi River Valley, and Deep South through Thursday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm (Arthur) as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. An outbreak of severe weather is forecast in the Midwest Wednesday. Read More >
| ZOA CWSU Discussion | KSFO TAF TDA | |
| AWAITING CWSU INPUT | TAF TDA KSFO/KSQL METAR METARArea PIREPs PIREP |
|
| Satellite | Webcams, Ceiling≤030 Prob | |
|
Webcams
|
||
| SIERRA 03 Hour Forecast | SIERRA 12 Hour Forecast | SIGMETs |
| TANGO 03 Hour Forecast | TANGO 12 Hour Forecast | |
| ZULU 03 Hour Forecast | ZULU 12 Hour Forecast | |
| Area Forecast Discussion | Forecast Maps |
|
972 FXUS66 KMTR 171203 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 503 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through early Thursday morning with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with temperatures cooling to below normal. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 (Today and tonight) A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep will bring extensive cloud cover to the coast and adjacent valleys this morning. Patchy drizzle has been observed along the coast and will continue through the morning, especially over the higher terrain. By the afternoon, clouds should retreat back to the coastline with mostly sunny skies. The marine influence combined with breezy onshore winds this afternoon will keep areas near the coast relatively cool, with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. Overall, conditions will be very similar to Tuesday. Marine stratus will return tonight, along with patchy drizzle redeveloping along the coast. High pressure over the area will start to weaken today, which will bring about 2-5 degrees of cooling inland. This will place temperatures near normal for mid June with highs in the upper 70s to lower 90s. Most areas will see Minor HeatRisk today with only isolated pockets in the interior of Moderate HeatRisk. Despite the slight cooling, continue to practice smart heat safety (especially for those more sensitive to the heat) by limiting time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if outdoors), and staying hydrated. Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM early this morning, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) A trough off the coast will approach the area on Thursday and further weaken the ridge. This will continue the cooling trend across inland areas, with highs dropping by around 5 degrees. The trough will begin to move onshore on Friday. Shower and thunderstorm potential associated with the trough will stay primarily over the higher terrain to the north and east of the area as a deep marine layer greatly inhibits any thunderstorm potential. However, there will be enough elevated instability for a 5% chance of thunderstorms across far northern Napa and Sonoma counties Thursday night and Friday with lower chances to the south. The trough will help to deepen the marine layer Friday into the weekend with breezy onshore afternoon/evening winds. The inland cooling trend will continue with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Coastal areas will remain relatively cool due to the marine influence. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and along the coast. Troughing will weaken by Sunday with ensembles in agreement that a ridge will rebuild across the West early next week. This will bring a warming trend, especially inland. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 429 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Satellite shows low clouds have filtered in sufficiently this morning, with CIGs currently at all TAF sites, mostly low- end MVFR. Stratus has made it into LVK and SJC, likely to prevail there through 15-16z this morning. Intermittent -DZ possible at times this morning and again Thursday morning. The low clouds retreat back to the coast beginning around 16z, and VFR should prevail for all but the immediate coastal sites after 18z and into the afternoon as gusty seabreeze winds return. Gusts around 15kts through the afternoon, with highest confidence at SFO and APC. The marine layer will filter in again tonight with slightly lesser chances to reach LVK and SJC, which are expected to remain VFR for Thursday morning (moderate confidence). Vicinity of SFO...BKN-OVC stratus with bases around 1200ft MSL will prevail through 16z before slowly retreating back towards the coastline, potentially lingering nearby through 20-21z. Gusty westerly winds increase around 20z, with intermittent gusts up to 18kts through 07z Thur before weaker Thursday morning. Similar gusts for Thursday afternoon. Stratus fills in again after 07z Thurs, although MVFR CIGs may occur as late as 09z. Clearing likely by 15-16z Thur. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus will clear this morning at a similar time as the terminal, 16-17z with VFR prevailing thereafter. Lesser chances for clouds Thursday morning with likely SCT MVFR for the bridge approach. 25-40% chance of BKN/OVC closer to sunrise on Thursday. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Stratus with bases around 1000-1400ft MSL will clear by 15-16z from SJC, around 2 hours before OAK, with VFR for the afternoon. Gustier northwest winds develop after 20z, as high as 15kts. MVFR stratus will push into the area after 05z, although likely hold out from OAK until after 08z. Model guidance puts chances for a CIG at SJC Thursday morning at around 10-15%, but confidence is low to moderate for this given that stratus overperformed this morning. Monterey Bay Terminals...BKN-OVC bases 1000-1300ft MSL continue until around 17z, but stratus will remain in the vicinity into the afternoon, especially for SNS. Low clouds with similar bases moves into the terminals again this evening, potentially as early as 00z Thur for SNS, likely closer to 02z for MRY, prevailing through all of Thursday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 429 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Fresh to strong winds will continue through mid-morning and then begin to ease, with onshore pushes maintaining moderate to fresh southwest winds for San Francisco and San Pablo Bays through the afternoon and evening hours. The same onshore push will impact the near coastal areas of Point Sur north to Point Pinos, and Pigeon Point to the Golden Gate. Expect light to gentle winds for the reminder of the week into the weekend with light to moderate seas and weak southwesterly swell across the coastal waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Thursday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Zuber MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
|
| Yesterday | ⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM | Today | |
| 24-Hour Temp Change | 24-Hour RH Change | ||
⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM
 |
|
Additional Links
National Airspace System Status
Other Webcams:
Alert California San Bruno Mountain
Alert California Sutro Tower 2
Alert California Coll of San Mateo Bldg36
Follow us on X
ZOA RSS Feed