Lake-effect snow will continue downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario through Friday. In the Western U.S., rain and higher elevation snow will continue over the Great Basin through Friday. A front will move over the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon and produce light rain and higher elevation snow over the Cascades through Saturday. Read More >
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008 FXUS66 KMTR 120610 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1010 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 902 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 - Rain showers linger overnight and taper off Thursday morning. - Hazardous beach conditions late Thursday night through early Saturday morning. - Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 Rain showers continue across the region as a gale force low pressure system remains off the coast. Thunderstorms/strong rain showers will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding, small hail, and erratic/gusty winds. The low is expected to weaken and fill as it moves south tonight, which will allow for rain shower activity to wane, southerly winds to diminish, and the thunderstorm potential continuing to lower. A potential impact as it moves south will be training which would pose the risk of localized flooding. If you are driving, keep your headlights on and cruise control off; ponding and slick roadways are expected. Sarment && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Ongoing showers, with brief downpours possible at times this afternoon, will persist through the remainder of today and tonight. The well defined center of a slow moving (nearly stationary today) upper level low off the coast of the Bay Area can be seen clearly on satellite and radar. Several bands of light to moderate showers will continue to move onshore through this evening. Our entire area has seen at least some rainfall over the past 24hrs with coastal areas and the higher terrain of the coastal ranges seeing between 0.50"- 1.5" and lower lying interior locations seeing around 0.10"-0.50". A slight chance of (sub-severe) thunderstorms continues through the remainder of the afternoon over the Central Coast with surface based CAPE values ranging between 200-400 (or a little higher in some spots), however with the vertically stacked nature of the upper low attm, there is essentially no shear to tap into the instability. Thus, rainfall will gradually taper off overnight and be mostly done by sunrise Thursday morning over land, with showers continuing offshore tracking south with the upper low during the day tomorrow. Highs Thursday will increase 3-5 degrees from today, with morning clouds clearing for most locations in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Positively tilted shortwave ridging begins to set in across our area Thursday night with coastal fog and drizzle possible Friday and Saturday morning. Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal values Friday and Saturday, mainly the upper 50s to mid- 60s. A deepening offshore trough Saturday night with decreases in midlevel heights and thickness values will lead to increasing rain chances through the day on Sunday, which will begin a wet pattern that will persist through the remainder of the extended forecast. By early Sunday morning, we`ll see the influence of the deepening trough begin to impact the coast before gradually progressing inland during the day. Wind gusts up to 25-30mph early Sunday morning will increase to 35-40mph by Sunday afternoon along with increasing rain chances throughout the day, first along the coast then pushing farther inland. The exact details of the larger scale pattern lacks consensus, however the highly amplified longwave pattern and continuous troughing expected to produce numerous waves of precipitation over the next one to two weeks is supported by todays update from the Climate Prediction Center, highlighting the West Coast with above normal chances for precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 The low has drifted south leaving showers confined west of the San Francisco Peninsula, slowly drifting onshore. Latest CAMS keep the the North Bay fairly dry over the next few hours, so adjusted the TAFs once again. VFR conditions should prevail at most sites with KSTS having the potential to fog/cloud over if the winds remain light enough. May need to monitor for fog early Fri morning. Vicinity of SFO... CAMs show lingering showers around the Bay tonight, which may lead to brief reductions in vis or cig if they make it to the terminal. Conditions gradually dry through the morning hours, leaving us precipitation free by the late morning or early afternoon. May need to monitor for fog early Fri morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the period, unless showers skirt by which could then drop cigs and vis down to MVFR conditions. Dry conditions are expected by Thursday morning, with winds taking an onshore component by the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 902 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 Low pressure sits off our waters, leaving winds us with moderate to fresh winds over the waters. Opted to hoist a new Small Craft Advisory for Point Reyes to Point Pinos as strong breezes remain and should hold through the early morning hours before they begin to slacken. While westerly to northwesterly swell will dominate, south to southwesterly swell will persist mainly for inner and outer waters south of the Monterey Peninsula. Moderate to rough seas are forecast this weekend, with a potential for 12 to 15 second period swell. This will equate to hazardous boating and near-shore conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 902 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches, excluding Northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and continue through early Saturday morning. There is an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in addition to breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to visit the beach, remember your beach safety tips. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through late Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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