National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Areas of Severe Thunderstorms, Critical Fire Weather, and HeatRisk for Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday across parts of the Southeast U.S. Elevated to critical fire weather including gusty winds and low relative humidity is forecast Monday over much of the northern Great Plains. Above normal temperatures in the Southeast and Southwest U.S. will bring moderate to isolated major HeatRisk Monday. Read More >

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300
FXUS66 KMTR 110401
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
901 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

- Warming and drying trend will continue through Monday

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive
populations across the interior on Monday

- Gradual cooling trend and unsettled weather midweek through
late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

We`re keeping an eye on the marine layer tonight as it continues
blossom along the coast. It should deepen to about 1000ft tonight,
which will bring low clouds into portions of the interior valleys.
Guidance shows the clouds mixing out by mid to late morning, which
may impact high temperatures tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026
(This evening through Monday)

Temperatures this afternoon are struggling to reach their forecasted
highs. This is as a deeper marine layer around 1500 ft in the North
Bay and 2000 ft in the Bay Area and Central Coast developed
overnight. Again, where cloud cover lingers or is slow to dissipate
across inland areas is where we are most likely to see cooler
temperatures than previously forecasted. That said, inland clearing
will still allow for temperatures to warm this afternoon as high
pressure to the south of the region continues to strengthen.

Overnight, temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to mid 50s
across most valley locations. Meanwhile, the higher ridges and peaks
will likely bottom out in the upper 50s to 60s. If persistence
holds, low clouds will fill back inland overnight, yet not expecting
as much of an inland penetration as the marine layer is still on
track to compress.

Monday is still on track to be the warmest day of the week, yet we
are seeing less widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior.
Mondays afternoon maximum temperatures are expected to be in the mid
80s to lower 90s across the interior with cooler conditions near the
coast as a shallow marine layer and onshore flow will persist.
However, these temperatures could be off by a few to several degrees
where cloud cover develops and lingers. Tricky forecast as high
pressure aloft supports warming afternoon temperatures, yet the
marine influences have been winning out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The pattern begins to shift Monday night into Tuesday as a trough of
low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest and northern
California. Thus, temperatures will cool by several degrees on
Tuesday, yet are likely to remain above seasonal averages. A cut-off
low pressure system is forecast to develop and move inland Tuesday
night and into Wednesday bringing even cooler and unsettled weather
to the region. We are still expecting drizzle and/or light rain
Tuesday night through Thursday morning as a result of the mid/upper
level cut-off low moving inland across northern California or the
Bay Area. Rainfall amounts generally will remain less than a few
hundredths of an inch or so.

More of a zonal flow returns by late week and will persist through
the upcoming weekend. This will result in a warming and drying trend
through this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

If you guessed satellite analysis for what this meteorologist
started with for the aviation forecast, you`d be correct. It has
been quite a fascinating journey the past few days watching the
status of the stratus, which is what we`re doing yet again. This
evening`s observations include Mainly VFR conditions with the
exception being along the San Francisco Peninsula and Monterey
coastlines where sites are reporting MVFR cigs. These will likely
hold and even build for the overnight hours bringing MVFR to IFR
ceilings. The marine layer is expected to be around 1000ft tonight
which means the onset of stratus in the valleys will be delayed or
non-existent. Most sites have hints of cigs, with them lifting by
mid to late morning. VFR conditions are expected for the majority of
the region by Monday afternoon. Medium to high confidence in the
forecast.

Vicinity of SFO...Breezy westerly winds are coming online and should
hold for a couple of hours, before falling to 10kt or less after 6Z.
The challenge outside of winds is the stratus. Satellite imagery and
webcams show lingering stratus near the San Bruno Gap, but it has
been gradually eroding this afternoon. With the marine layer
expected to be around 1000ft again, we should see the return of
stratus tonight. Kept the pessimism in the TAFs with IFR cigs based
on the last few nights, but time will tell if go that low or stay in
the MVFR category. Stratus looks to dissipate mid to late morning,
with breezy westerlies returning Monday afternoon. Will need to keep
an eye on the marine layer again tomorrow night. Medium confidence
in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...A small band of stratus remains around the
Monterey Peninsula, which has been flirting with KMRY the last few
hours. Expect this to build back in this evening bringing MVFR to
IFR cigs to the terminals. Stratus should begin to erode by mid to

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 845 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwest breeze with
isolated near gale force gusts continuing through tonight. Winds
ease late tonight across the inner waters then across the outer
waters tomorrow becoming a moderate to fresh northwest breeze.
Seas subside in response, but remain moderate with 4 to 5 foot
seas by mid week.Locally gusty conditions are likely across the
San Pablo and San Francisco Bays where terrain promotes wind
funneling. Winds increase and seas build again late Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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