
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will continue across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast today due to gusty winds and low humidity. Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact southern Texas through the Southeast and the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Read More >
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361 FXUS66 KMTR 291123 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 423 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 - Overnight and early morning stratus returns to the forecast - Warming and drying trend continues into the late week for areas away from the coast - Cooler conditions return this weekend with a chance of drizzle and/or light rain into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1257 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 (Today and tonight) Coastal Stratus is building along the SF Peninsula and around Point Reyes. This cloud cover will be spotty along the coast, will build further into the night, affecting the bays. This is a good indicator that the marine layer is becoming more stable, and looks to stay intact despite the ridging pattern to the north. A big player in retaining the marine layer is the cut off low to the south west which will prevent too much of a climb in pressure and keep the marine zones and immediate coast on the breezier side. While the marine influence will keep coastal and slightly inland temperatures fairly stable over the next few days, areas further inland will continue the warming trend. Wednesday offers highs in the 60s along the coast, areas inland into the mid to upper 70s and a few spots breaking 80. This looks to be a slight decrease from previous model runs, as the ridge to the north seems to have slightly weekend in the forecast update. Overnight lows will also see the opportunity to warm, but strong humidity recoveries and increasing marine influence will make the overnight warming trend much more modest. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1257 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) The warming trend continues Thursday and Friday. For areas in the North Bay and potions of the rest of the SF Bay will see fairly similar temperatures on both days with the warmest interior locations breaking into the lowers 80s. The bigger difference will be felt in the interior south bay and the more interior portions of Monterey and San Benito counties: going from the lower 80s on Thursday to the mid to upper 80s for Friday. The trend breaks on friday as the ridge pushes east and weakens. High-level clouds build through Saturday as a low pressure and trough builds along the Pacific coast. This low will also call for expanding the marine layer both in height and inland push, and along with increasing onshore flow, will allow for a strong cooling trend through the weekend. Models are in better agreement for good rain chances, but not a lot in accumulation from this low pressure moving inland. Drizzly conditions look to start Sunday morning with the chances for passing light showers building into that night and lasting into the work week. Models still need to iron out the finer details of the exit of this low, but there is good agreement that rain conditions could last into next Tuesday, before another ridge and warming trend begin. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Shallow stratus is spreading along the coast and into portions of the Bay Area. This will bring local MVFR to IFR conditions with the potential for fog to develop across the North Bay Valleys. Clearing looks to occur by 17/18Z with stratus returning again tonight as a relatively deep marine layer persists. Breezy onshore winds return during the afternoon/evening before winds ease again overnight. Moderate confidence in timing of stratus return for tonight. Kept a later arrival (07-12Z) for most sites to stay in line with LAMP guidance but some models suggest an earlier arrival is possible. Vicinity of SFO...Patchy stratus is drifting through the San Bruno Gap producing temporary MVFR CIGs at SFO. Moderate confidence that MVFR CIGs will fill in at SFO over the next hour and then persist through late morning. Gusty winds return this afternoon with gusts peaking around 24-25 knots. Stratus returns late this evening. The TAF currently has stratus returning around 07Z but LAMP guidance suggests it could occur closer to 09Z. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR this morning. Stratus is not expected to fill in over the SF Bay this morning but models do show stratus filling in over the bay tonight as a deeper marine layer develops. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with some potential for LIFR conditions to return later this morning. Up until the last hour, MRY was reporting stratus and LIFR conditions. Satellite shows an eddy developing over the bay that pulled stratus away from land. Guidance shows a decent chance for stratus to return to MRY so have kept in a tempo for them but removed stratus chances from SNS. Breezy afternoon winds return before easing overnight. Stratus is expected to return again tonight with moderate confidence in the current timing. Current thinking is that more widespread stratus will return earlier tonight given the expected deeper marine layer. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 423 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Breezy, fresh to strong northerly winds continue to bring locally hazardous conditions for small crafts into the weekend. Significant wave heights, driven by the stronger winds, build late week into the weekend with fresh swell between 8 to 12 feet expected. Winds diminish and seas abate late weekend into next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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