An anomalously early heat wave will continue to intensify and expand across the West and Southwest as the week progresses. Numerous daily and potentially monthly record highs are expected to be broken. Critical fire weather conditions will continue over the next couple of days across portions of the High Plains as gusty winds and dry conditions persist. Read More >
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751 FXUS66 KMTR 181703 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1003 AM PDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 149 PM PDT Tue Mar 17 2026 - Early season, long duration heat wave bringing record-breaking temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk continues through at least Friday - Elevated potential for grass fires through the week due to warm and dry conditions with periods of moderate offshore winds - Gradual cooling trend begins this weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM PDT Wed Mar 18 2026 On track to break more records once again this afternoon and through Friday (see CLIMATE below). The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Friday before cooling is looking more likely for this upcoming weekend. No updates are anticipated to the ongoing forecast at this time. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 121 AM PDT Wed Mar 18 2026 (Today and tonight) Yesterday broke numerous daily max temperature records, and even a few monthly records. Most notably, 93 degrees at Redwood City broke the monthly record of 90 degrees set just the day prior. The earliest 93 degree day on record is April 9th. Temperatures are cooling nicely overnight in the North Bay and interior valleys, but higher elevations and even some coastal areas are still in the mid 60s. Downtown San Francisco was still 70 degrees at midnight. The ridge axis has moved east of us, and will be centered over the SE California desert today, before moving into Arizona tomorrow. While the distance to the center of the ridge is increasing, the strength of the high pressure is also increasing. This combination will keep our 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures fairly consistent at around 5910 m and 20 C. Both higher than we`ve recorded in March outside of the last couple days. As such, today will be very similar to yesterday for inland areas, though there will be slightly more marine influence along the immediate coast. The current satellite shows a bank of low stratus off the coast of Pt. Reyes moving south. These clouds will probably not make landfall, but they are a sign that boundary layer averaged winds have shifted from offshore yesterday to onshore this morning. Offshore winds still dominate above the very shallow boundary layer, however. The compression from the high pressure will keep this more humid air confined to the coast while the rest of the area gets another dry, hot afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 121 AM PDT Wed Mar 18 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Rinse and repeat through Friday. Expect record breaking heat each afternoon as the ridge of high pressure stalls over the desert SW. Confidence is increasing that the heat wave will start to break on Saturday. Our latest forecast has temperatures dropping around 10 degrees on Saturday, and another 5 on Sunday. That would bring us back into the 70s for most inland areas and 60s along the coast to start next week. By the way, that`s still 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. As the ridge breaks down there is good chance for stronger winds this weekend, which will bring some additional relief to the hot temperatures, but also brings some enhanced fire weather conditions for fine dead fuels. The next chance for any rain is around the end of the month or early April, but the ensemble members diverge spectacularly by that point, and it`s just as likely that another dry heatwave moves in. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 AM PDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Quiet weather continues with high pressure holding and mainly offshore winds being observed this morning. Diurnally driven onshore winds are expected for areas near the coast or around the Bay later this afternoon and evening and will become offshore or light and variable overnight. VFR conditions will prevail, though there could be some pockets of haze. Vicinity of SFO...No major changes, light and variable winds, will become onshore this afternoon and evening. Winds may peak at KSFO around 10-15kt after 23Z. Wind weaken late in the evening, with light and variable winds expected overnight and into Thursday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Quiet weather with offshore flow continuing this morning. Winds will gradually become onshore by the afternoon, with winds becoming weakly offshore or variable by the evening and overnight hours. VFR conditions continue. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 411 AM PDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Moderate northwest breezes persist across the outer waters, with gentle breezes over the inner waters. Strengthening northwest winds and hazardous seas will likely return to the coastal waters late this week and weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 421 AM PDT Wed Mar 18 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for March 18th, 19th and 20th. Location Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Santa Rosa 84 in 2010 83 in 2004 84 in 2004 San Rafael 80 in 1996 81 in 1964 82 in 1960 Kentfield 89 in 1914 83 in 1996 82 in 2001 Napa 87 in 1914 86 in 1914 86 in 2004 Richmond 78 in 1996 80 in 1996 81 in 2004 Livermore 86 in 2004 82 in 2015 87 in 1915 San Francisco 86 in 1914 80 in 2010 78 in 2004 SFO Airport 77 in 2004 78 in 2010 78 in 2004 Redwood City 84 in 2004 81 in 2010 82 in 2004 Half Moon Bay 75 in 1978 79 in 2010 75 in 2010 Oakland Museum 81 in 2004 81 in 1984 78 in 2001 San Jose 87 in 1914 82 in 1988 78 in 2004 Salinas Airport 84 in 1960 87 in 1997 80 in 1934 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for the entire month of March. Location Santa Rosa 91 on March 16, 2004 San Rafael 88 on March 25, 1952 Kentfield 91 on March 28, 1923 Napa 92 on March 17, 1914 Richmond 87 on March 31, 2021 Livermore 90 on March 25 and 26, 2025 San Francisco 87 on March 11, 2005 SFO Airport 85 on March 25, 1952 and March 17, 2026 Redwood City 93 on March 17, 2026 Half Moon Bay 83 on March 31, 2000 and March 17, 2004 Oakland Museum 89 on March 17, 2026 San Jose 89 on March 14, 2015 Salinas Airport 92 on March 14, 2015 and March 17, 2026 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006-502>506-508>510- 512>518-528>530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...KR MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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