Widespread life-threatening flash and urban flooding will continue to pose a significant threat to life and property in south-central Texas. Catastrophic fiver flooding, with rapid rises on small streams, arroyos, and typically dry washes, is expected. Monsoonal showers persist across the Great Basin and Southwest with greatest flash flooding in southern Arizona. Read More >
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034 FXUS66 KMTR 161928 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1228 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions through this evening - Breezy onshore winds through Friday - Gradual cooling and moistening trend through the upcoming weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Lingering stratus around the Monterey Bay has eroded as of this writing, however the cooling trend continues today as a result of increased onshore winds and the deepening mid/upper level trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast. The increased winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening as near critically dry conditions persist across the interior and higher terrain of the region. Wind gusts are expected to reach 25-35 mph in the favored gaps and passes. Please see the Fire Weather section of the AFD for additional details. The marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 feet overnight, resulting in better chances for seeing low clouds develop along the coast and into the coastal adjacent valleys. That said, there is a low probability of mist and/or drizzle late tonight and into Friday morning. Low clouds that do develop will retreat back to the coastline by mid-to-late morning. By Friday afternoon, the cooling trend will continue with temperatures dropping to slightly below seasonal averages. Thus, we are expecting upper 50s to 60s near the coast, upper 60s to middle 70s just inland, and lower 80s to near 90 deg F (the warmest interior spots). Friday night, low clouds are more likely to reach into the coastal adjacent valleys and potentially into the inland valleys as the marine influences become better established. This will also increase the potential for mist and/or drizzle near the coast. However, probabilities are not high enough to include drizzle in the official forecast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) Temperatures will be similar to Friday through much of the weekend with slight day-to-day fluctuations depending on the depth of the marine layer. We continue to monitor tropical and monsoon moisture that is forecast to spread across the Bay Area and Central Coast late in the weekend into early next week. Tropical Storm Elida is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a hurricane by 5 AM Friday (tomorrow). This system is forecast to move out into the open Pacific and not directly impact the region. However, high pressure placed over the Intermountain West this weekend will advect moisture from Elida and monsoon moisture northward brining an increased in mid-to-high level clouds on Sunday and beyond (this the most likely scenario). The lacking ingredient is still instability! Be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast information over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail across all terminals. The patch of stratus that developed over the Monterey Bay is quickly dissipating at this hour and is expected to reform this evening as a shallow marine layer reestablishes itself. High confidence in VFR through the afternoon with moderate to high confidence of IFR ceilings returning to coastal (HAF, MRY, and SNS) and near shore (SFO and OAK) terminals this evening. Diurnal winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions and westerly flow will prevail. Moderate (60%) confidence on an IFR ceiling returning tonight. The TAF may be slightly pessimistic with a 09Z arrival. Reasonable best case scenario is the marine layer is too shallow to make it through the San Bruno Gap and has to go through the Golden Gate Gap. This would likely lead to a later arrival time or stratus remaining confined to the north of the terminal. There`s a 25% chance for wind gusts to reach 35 knots this afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions prevail with moderate west to northwesterly winds over MRY and SNS. The patch of stratus that developed over the Monterey Bay this morning is quickly dissipating at this hour. High confidence on IFR ceilings returning to the terminals tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Moderate to strong northwesterly winds will bring widespread hazardous conditions for small craft today. Localized gale force gusts are expected along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through Friday. Conditions improve Saturday as seas abate and northwesterly breezes diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 The very warm to hot temperatures we have had this week has resulted in fuels rapidly drying. Fire weather concerns will remain elevated through this evening with relative humidity dropping into the teens and lower twenties across the interior and higher elevations (away from the marine influences), gusty onshore winds, and very dry fuels. This may result in additional fire starts particularly across the interior and higher elevations. These conditions are gradually forecast to improve as the marine layer deepens into Friday and over the weekend. Unsettled weather is possible late this weekend and into early next week with returning potential for dry thunderstorms and gusty, erratic winds. However, the focus remains to the east over the Sierra Nevada. RGass && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...CW MARINE...CW Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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