National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heat and Severe Thunderstorms in the Eastern U.S.

A widespread heat wave will peak over the South and East today, with several dozen temperature records expected along the East Coast. Heat should begin to ease this weekend in the Northeast, while hazardous heat continues over the South. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible across parts of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Read More >

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651
FXUS66 KMTR 121818
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Hot and dry through today for interior locations with a
moderate risk of heat-related illnesses

- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay
Area

- Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along
south- and southwest-facing beaches this weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The short term forecast is on track, no changes anticipated. The
surge of stratus that moved into the coastal locations overnight
has begun to recede but will linger over the marine environment
as the northerly extent of the stratus and patchy fog nearly stops
off the Pacific coast of Sonoma county. Remaining stratus that is
hugging tight to the coastal cities, such as Monterey, Santa
Cruz, Half Moon, west San Francisco, and Bolinas, will continue to
rescind into the early afternoon returning this evening and
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
(Today and tonight)

GOES-West nighttime microphysics imagery reveals a much-welcomed
surge of stratus returning to Pacific coastal locations since the
evening hours. This has resulted in broken/overcast skies to
communities such as Monterey, Salinas, Santa Cruz, and Half Moon
Bay, as well as the western half of San Francisco. Areas of fog
have also been reported. Some locations in the Santa Cruz
Mountains are running 10-15 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours
ago. Following a hot day for interior areas, temperatures have
been running generally a few to several degrees warmer.

Upper-level ridge remains the dominate synoptic feature over the
eastern Pacific. For Friday, areas covered in Moderate HeatRisk
will be primarily reduced to interior locations of the East Bay
and South Bay. For these locations, the Heat Advisory continues
through Friday evening. Temperatures will continue to moderate
region-wide on Saturday.

High tide flooding will occur nightly along the Bayshore through
the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon
and lunar perigee on Sunday, and about 7 inches of additional
tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion
of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level
Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s
will add up to bring tides up to 1.8 feet above normal through
the weekend. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in
January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up
being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current
record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)

A short-wave trough will cut along the outer periphery of the
eastern Pacific ridge over the weekend. This will promote further
cooling for interior locations into the second half of the
weekend. Coastal locations can expect the usual June stratus.
While temperatures will return closer to middle-June climatology,
the main hazards will be the southerly swell along the coast, plus
the coastal flooding associated with the high tides

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Southerly surge with coastal stratus and fog impacted Half Moon
Bay and Monterey early this morning with reduced visibilities
(IFR-LIFR). The fog and stratus also reached through the Golden
Gate to the East Bay, but didn`t impact visibilities. Inland
conditions remained VFR. Diurnal surface heating has started to
burn off some of the fog allowing for ceilings and visibilities
to improve late this morning. As diurnal surface heating continues
this afternoon ceilings and visibilities will continue to improve
(back to MVFR and VFR) along the coastline. High resolution
modeling continues to show coastal stratus and fog (IFR-LIFR) to
redevelop tonight and tomorrow morning. Similar conditions from
this morning are expected again tomorrow morning. Winds will
follow similar patterns to the past 24 hours with speeds
increasing to moderately breezy this afternoon, but diminishing
around sunset.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence of VFR conditions continuing
into the overnight hours. Current NE winds will go NW`rly early
this afternoon (~20Z). Wind speeds will increase into the middle
teens this afternoon, but subside back below 10 kt around or
shortly after sunset. Winds will then go westerly early tomorrow
morning before going light and variable by the middle of tomorrow
morning. IFR conditions are forecasted for tomorrow morning as
radiative cooling may result in some patchy low stratus/fog
developing.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Winds will predominately be out of the
W/NW at OAK through the period. Winds at SJC will be out of the
NW through this evening before going S/SE during the overnight
hours. Wind speeds, at both sites, will be in the low to mid
teens this afternoon through sunset, otherwise winds will be aob
8 kt. For OAK, morning stratus/fog (IFR) is expected to redevelop
tonight and tomorrow morning, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected. At SJC, VFR conditions are anticipated the whole period
as morning stratus is not expected to impact the airport.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Similar conditions from the past 24 hours
are expected for the next 24 hours. Stratus/fog from earlier this
morning is starting to burn off with diurnal surface heating
allowing for conditions to improve to MVFR-VFR. Stratus/fog
(IFR/LIFR) is expected to redevelop and move inland tonight and
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and variable (but may tend
to be more onshore winds) through the majority of the period.
Westerly winds are expected to increase to 7-10 kt this
afternoon, then subside around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low
south southwest swell persist across the coastal waters. The
winds will remain fairly consistent through the weekend as the
seas subside.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head
out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other
waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in
people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to
pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard
if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers,
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn
your back to the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
508.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...Berislavich
MARINE...Berislavich

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