A strengthening storm system will bring impactful weather to the much of Central U.S. over the next couple of days, including heavy snow in the northern Rockies, Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Plains, and increasing severe weather chances from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest. Read More >
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269 FXUS66 KMTR 230103 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 603 PM PDT Wed Apr 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1004 PM PDT Tue Apr 21 2026 - Cool conditions Wednesday with lingering showers through the day - Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions arrive Thursday - Monitoring potential rain and drizzle this weekend into the early part of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 129 PM PDT Wed Apr 22 2026 (This afternoon through Thursday) While not as active as 24 hours ago we still have KMUX is precip mode. Current radar loop this afternoon still shows widely scattered showers around the Bay Area and Central Coast. Afternoon visible satellite shows popcorn city with an extensive CU field blanketing the region. Why the showers? The main storm system from yesterday has exited to the east. On the back side of this system are trialing embedded vort maxes/shortwaves. Those features in conjunction with lingering moisture, daytime heating, and weak instability has led to the showers. That being said, not enough lift or vertically developed storms to generate thunderstorms. This evening and tonight, once the sun sets expect shower activity to quickly diminish and CU field thin. One potential impact tonight will be some developing low stratus and fog. Clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow for some fog development over the inland valleys. Thursday: Dry, warmer, and more sunshine due to weak upper level ridging. Max temps will be in the 60s to mid 70s, which is closer to seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 129 PM PDT Wed Apr 22 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) A few days ago the longer term forecast didn`t look to interesting from a weather impact standpoint, but a trend has emerged over the last 24-36 hrs showing active weather will continue. First and foremost it will not be as dynamic as the system that we just had. However, a previously dry-ish weekend is now trending "wetter". What`s the trend? Subtle ridging aloft is now looking more trough-y with an upper low over the region. The longwave pattern keeps kicking the upper low from yesterday eastward. In its wake subtle ridging is now being replaced by another upstream trough. It now appears enough jet dynamics aloft emerge to shift the broad upper trough to a more pronounced upper low late Thursday into Friday. Heights begin to fall by Friday lowering temps and ushering in more clouds. By Saturday morning an upper low develops off the Central Coast. As such, light drizzle/light rain will return. This set up will persist through early Sunday with drizzle/light rain. Not expecting much accumulation, just some wet ground, clouds, and cooler temps. Another upper low develop early next week bring additional rain chances on Tuesday into Wednesday. Again, not a big storm, just additional moisture. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM PDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Residual light rain is making its way out of a few TAF sites this afternoon. As a result, some sites will see low cloud bases (4500 to 8000 ft) in the earlier portion of the TAF period, but they are expected to lift through the evening. VFR conditions are forecast as the drying trend continues. Winds will be light throughout the night and will increase by tomorrow afternoon with some locations experiencing embedded gusts. Model guidance is hinting at the potential for valley fog in the early morning hours for STS & SJC, however confidence is currently too low to include in the TAF. We will continue to monitor this and update as needed. Vicinity of SFO...Westerly winds will dominate this TAF period at moderate speeds. The winds should become light overnight before picking up again tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will persist for the remainder of the day and night. There is some potential for low- level cloud decks tomorrow night around 05Z, though it does not seem impactful at this time. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate west winds last into the late evening before winds reduce and become light and variable. Low clouds look to form on the mountain tops in the area overnight, but don`t look to affect the TAF sites. Those clouds erode into the early morning with moderate west to northwest winds affecting the region into the late morning. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 601 PM PDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Isolated light showers linger across waters this afternoon and will continue to diminish into the early evening. A moderate north breeze will develop this tonight, then increase on Thursday to a fresh northwest breeze. Wind and seas will begin to gradually subside on Friday, continuing into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Navarrete/Murdock MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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