Thunderstorms and periods of heavy to excessive rainfall will continue over Florida through Thursday. Gusty winds and low humidity will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions from central Georgia into north-central North Carolina Wednesday. A Kona Low is expected to bring strong winds, widespread heavy rainfall, and flooding concerns to the island chain through the weekend. Read More >
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161 FXUS66 KMTR 080612 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1112 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions with a marine layer Wednesday - Unsettled weather returns as early as Thursday and continues through the weekend with light to moderate rainfall - Thunderstorms possible Friday through Sunday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Wednesday`s weather is brought to you by upper-level shortwave ridging. The aforementioned ridge`s axis across the state and a cutoff low right behind it is supporting onshore flow. A modest marine layer of 1,500 feet was observed on the 00Z April 8th sounding - this may actually undergo some deepening tonight as heights ever so slightly begin to fall ahead of the approaching cutoff low. Nonetheless, a cloudy start can be expected along the coast and in the valleys with temperatures warming to 5-10 degrees above normal by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026 (Thursday through next Tuesday) The aforementioned cutoff low near 38 N, -138 W in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will kickoff our pattern change on Thursday. Due to its independence from the jet stream, its exact location and timing is difficult to say with certainty. Thus, this is a boom or bust forecast by nature which is evident in the spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles. For example, 72-hour accumulation for Santa Rosa between now and 5 PM Friday is forecast to be 0.22" with a 10th percentile of 0.03" and a 90th percentile of 0.40". No matter how you slice it, it`s not a lot of rain; however, this provides insight that rainfall totals will be highly dependent on where rain showers/thunderstorms develop. The trend has been for an even slower progression of the surface low to the east. While rain and thunderstorms on Thursday cannot be completely ruled out with the outer rain bands, the best thunderstorm chances are now expanding from Friday into Sunday. Point forecast soundings illustrate that the profile will be characterized by conditionally unstable lapse rates yielding low CAPE, high 0-6 km shear, and PWAT values near the 90th percentile. It also shows that thunderstorms will likely be diurnally driven by surface heating with the most unstable parcel being the surface parcel. Thunderstorm hazards include lightning, locally heavy rainfall, erratic/gusty winds, and small hail. Due to the slow steering motion and training effect of cutoff lows, localized flooding will be possible if a rain shower/thunderstorm were to develop. There is high confidence that the cutoff low gets absorbed with the help of a digging upper-level longwave trough from the Gulf of Alaska late Friday, but global ensemble clusters diverge by Saturday on the depth, strength, and type of troughing across the state. Deterministic ECMWF and GFS are both advertising a surface low digging down the West Coast and cutting inland in Northern California. The close proximity to the low would maintain rain and thunderstorm chances over the weekend. Rainfall totals on the order of 0.50"-1.00" are expected with up to 2.00" in the coastal ranges. Heights will begin to rise Monday, kicking off at least a brief warming and drying trend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 957 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Gentle to moderate onshore pattern wind flow will continue to diminish through the evening hours. MVFR stratus is developing at the immediate coast and should eventually cover the coastal regions and parts of the East Bay near OAK, but a compressed marine layer should allow for less inland development than last night, particularly in the North Bay interior valleys. Stratus should retreat to the immediate coast on Wednesday morning with moderate onshore flow resuming in the afternoon. Expecting more stratus coverage to develop Wednesday night as an incoming system promotes the growth of the marine layer. Vicinity of SFO... Moderate westerly winds continue for a couple more hours with winds becoming light overnight. Moderate confidence that the terminal remains VFR overnight, although some low scattered clouds could intrude into the terminal area. Confidence for stratus impacts is slightly higher at OAK. Any stratus that develops in the vicinity will dissipate through Wednesday morning, with the west- northwest winds returning in the afternoon, with a moderate confidence for stratus returning in the evening hours into Thursday morning. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Light winds overnight through Wednesday morning. MVFR-IFR stratus has developed in patches near MRY and will expand across the terminals through the night, with impacts continuing through Wednesday morning. Breezy northwest winds resume in the afternoon, with MVFR-IFR stratus returning late Wednesday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 957 PM PDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A gentle to moderate northwest breeze and slight to moderate seas prevail through the night. Winds will remain moderate while gradually shifting to the southwest from Wednesday through Thursday ahead of a low pressure system. This system will will bring disturbed weather with possible thunderstorms on Friday through Sunday. Winds will increase to a strong NW breeze by Sunday as subtropical high pressure builds over the Eastern Pacific. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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