Widespread showers and thunderstorms may produce isolate instances of flash flooding across the Ozarks and Southeast through Friday. Scattered severe storms and heavy rain is expected across the Northwest U.S.. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will contribute to elevated fire weather over a portion of the northern Plains with a secondary threat in the Great Basin. Read More >
| ZOA CWSU Discussion | KSFO TAF TDA | |
| AWAITING CWSU INPUT | TAF TDA KSFO/KSQL METAR METARArea PIREPs PIREP |
|
| Satellite | Webcams, Ceiling≤030 Prob | |
|
Webcams
|
||
| SIERRA 03 Hour Forecast | SIERRA 12 Hour Forecast | SIGMETs |
| TANGO 03 Hour Forecast | TANGO 12 Hour Forecast | |
| ZULU 03 Hour Forecast | ZULU 12 Hour Forecast | |
| Area Forecast Discussion | Forecast Maps |
|
397 FXUS66 KMTR 280703 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1203 AM PDT Thu May 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 - Cool, unsettled weather continues today - Slight chance of isolated strong thunderstorms from mid-morning through mid-afternoon for southern South Bay and Central Coast - Warming and drying trend Friday and beyond && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1151 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 (Tonight through Friday) A steady fetch of light rain, on the backside of the retrograding upper level low responsible for the unsettled weather the past couple of days, will continue over the North Bay and Bay Area much of the overnight into early Thursday morning. A large portion of Sonoma and Marin County (especially higher elevations) have a 50%- 60% chance of exceeding 0.25" rainfall or more by sunrise. Relatively weak cyclogenesis will generate a surface low, just offshore of Marin County and San Francisco County, late in the overnight hours. As the upper level disturbance begins its shift into the interior, the accompanying surface low will hug the coastline for the remainder of the day. After sunrise the coastal ranges of Santa Cruz south through the Santa Lucias along the Big Sur coast will receive the most rainfall with efficient orographic lift. Santa Cruz mountains have ~20% chance of exceeding 1.00" of rain during the day, and ~75% chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain. From the Monterey Peninsula south through the Big Sure, looking at ~80% or higher chance of 0.50". The highest spots of the Santa Lucias along the Big Sur have ~50% chance of 1.00" or more. Flooding concerns are minimal given mean rainfall rates of 0.10"-0.20"/hr. As the upper low begins a more eastward shift inland from mid morning into the afternoon, chances for thunderstorms over the interior begin to increase. Coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms have over performed somewhat, especially yesterday. HiRes CAMs have steadily shown 100-200 (some spots slightly higher) J/Kg of CAPE from the South Bay and the remainder of the interior Central Coast from late morning into mid-afternoon today. That has been enough to sustain convective showers (with periods of moderate rainfall) with isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. A limiting factor the past couple of days has been a lack of wind shear and only pockets of weak divergence aloft. That will change this morning and continue through the afternoon with ~25-30kts of 0-6km at any given time (sometimes more) from 8am PDT through mid-afternoon and a larger swath of divergence aloft near the base of the exiting closed low aloft. Along with potential terrain influences, there will be surface convergence into the surface low riding the coastline and some slightly backed H85 flow at times. Overall, this is to say a brief low-top supercell can`t be ruled out from Santa Cruz County-southern Santa Clara county around mid- morning and farther south into the Central Coast for the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours. By late afternoon the potential for strong storms drops off quickly with only lingering light rain expected in the North Bay and southern Monterey County through the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1151 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Not much change in the extended forecast with some uncertainty in the finer details of the overall synoptic pattern, but we do know that we will begin to dry out and temperatures will begin to warm closer to seasonal averages through the weekend and slightly above normal for the the first half of next week at least. The pattern is relatively progressive and does not indicate any impactful extreme heat in our area through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 957 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 Scattered showers are expected to arrive tonight becoming widespread rain by early morning. Rain generally continues through late morning/early afternoon before conditions dry out. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop again during the day. Any t-storms that develop would likely impact MRY and SNS with the highest thunderstorm probabilities across the interior Central Coast. Breezy onshore winds are expected again during the afternoon/evening before winds ease tomorrow night. Confidence has increased in widespread MVFR CIGs tonight with most sites seeing MVFR conditions through late morning. Temporary decreases in visibility are possible if a stronger shower moves directly over the airport. Vicinity of SFO...Shower chances are expected to increase overnight and continue through late morning. Winds remain relatively light overnight before breezy onshore winds return during the afternoon/evening. MVFR CIGs generally expected overnight with CIGs rising to the MVFR/VFR border overnight. Winds ease tomorrow evening/night with some potential for MVFR CIGs to return. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Shower chances increase through 10Z with widespread rain returning afterwards through much of the day. There is some potential for thunderstorms to develop during the day. The highest chances for thunderstorms are to the south of MRY and SNS but cannot rule out the potential for a stray storm or two moving through the Monterey Peninsula (particularly during the morning into the early afternoon). Winds remain breezy during the afternoon/evening before starting to ease overnight. Winds at SNS are tricky with LAMP guidance highlighting strong valley winds during the early morning. For now put gusts to around 15 knots during the early morning but LAMP guidance seemed a little high with 20+ knot gusts. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 921 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 Winds diminish and waves abate across the coastal waters tonight with a moderate northwest breeze expected late morning through Friday. Strong to near gale force northerly winds return over the weekend and continue into next week. Wave heights build as winds restrengthen with wave heights between 10 to 12 feet expected this weekend into early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 AM PDT Thursday through late Thursday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
|
| Yesterday | ⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM | Today | |
| 24-Hour Temp Change | 24-Hour RH Change | ||
⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM
 |
|
Additional Links
National Airspace System Status
Other Webcams:
Alert California San Bruno Mountain
Alert California Sutro Tower 2
Alert California Coll of San Mateo Bldg36
Follow us on X
ZOA RSS Feed