A major winter storm is expected to bring heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast that may cause impossible travel conditions and power outages. Blizzard conditions are possible along coastal areas from the DelMarVa Peninsula through southeastern New England. Wet weather and strong winds return to the Pacific Northwest and north-central California. Read More >
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018 FXUS66 KMTR 221108 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 308 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 - Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through Wednesday - Warming and drying trend kicks off Thursday with the return of above normal temperatures && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 (Today and tonight) A storm force low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest Coast and surface high pressure in the Intermountain West will continue to tighten the pressure gradient. As a result, strong southerly winds with gusts up to 40 mph can be expected along the Pacific Coast and in the higher terrain. The attendant cold front to the aforementioned low will be close enough to generate pre-frontal rain showers. No adverse impacts are expected from them and they are expected to remain confined to the North Bay with drizzle possible for locations to the south. Temperatures will rebound to near seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 216 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 (Monday through Saturday) A developing gale force low pressure system off the Northern California Coast will bring tropical moisture along with it on Monday. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean IVT forecast peaks in excess of 500 kg/ms on Tuesday with PWAT values expected to break the daily record. Even though the moisture content is expected to be rich, the dynamics are expected to be poor. The reason is due to the pattern that we are in with ridging to our southeast and troughing to our northwest - this will force the low up and over us into the Pacific Northwest. This leads to high confidence that the North Bay will receive the highest rainfall accumulations. Southwest facing terrain will have locally higher totals with the help of orographic lift and a perpendicular moisture fetch from the tropics off to the southwest. Adjacent valleys will experience the rain shadow effect. Impacts wise, flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas will be possible, especially in the North Bay. Ponding and slick roadways will be likely. If rain rates get intense enough, shallow landslides will be possible, especially in the North Bay. IVT values will quickly decrease after peaking, with only light rainfall expected Wednesday morning with the cold frontal passage. A warming and drying trend commences on its heels with upper-level shortwave ridging building across Baja California, resulting in temperatures 10 degrees above normal by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 308 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 VFR throughout the region with some mid- to high level cloud cover. Isolated to scattered showers will intrude into the North Bay through the TAF period, with low to moderate confidence in an extension of shower coverage down the western side of the San Mateo Peninsula through the day. Southerly flow will increase in the afternoon and evening, but is not expected to be as strong as yesterday`s winds with gusts of 15-20 kt. Some MVFR ceilings are possible in the North Bay valleys and the immediate coast tonight into Monday morning, with moderate confidence on the timing and extent. Vicinity of SFO... VFR with mid- to high level clouds through the TAF period. Southeast flow will continue through the day, with winds remaining at a gentle breeze. Showers may develop this morning on the west side of the San Bruno gap but confidence in impacts to the terminal itself is very low. Overnight, winds will diminish with a low to moderate confidence of MVFR ceilings developing on Monday morning. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with some mid- to high level clouds across the region and through the TAF period. Breezy drainage flow persists through the morning at SNS, with winds turning northwesterly in the afternoon hours before diminishing in the evening. Some MVFR ceilings are possible tonight, but low confidence in impacts at the terminals and have opted to take the ceilings out of the TAF. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 308 AM PST Sun Feb 22 2026 Southerly winds and seas will decrease through the day. Rain chances continue across the northern waters today, then spread farther south Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas increase Tuesday then begin to ease by Wednesday of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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