A storm tracking across the Southern U.S. will bring heavy to excessive rainfall over portions of west-central Texas into tonight then from central Texas through the central Gulf Coast on Friday. The Southeast U.S. will see heavier rain Saturday. While much of this rainfall will be beneficial to the drought, excessive rainfall may bring areas of flash and urban flooding. Read More >
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156 FXUS66 KMTR 010506 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1006 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 223 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 - Warming and drying trend continues tomorrow for areas away from the coast - Overnight and early morning stratus remains in the forecast as the marine layer deepens into the weekend - Cooler conditions this weekend with a chance of drizzle and/or light rain into early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 553 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 The forecast is on track this evening as stratus begins to partially cloak the coastlines of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Look for another partly to mostly cloudy night, with temperatures generally falling into the mid 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 223 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 (This evening through Friday) A fetch of weak offshore flow at 925MB has resulted in clear skies across our area this afternoon and confined stratus to the coast along the SF Peninsula. As diurnal winds ease this evening and decouple a relatively weak fetch of onshore flow will lead to stratus developing through the remainder of the night into Friday morning. Low stratus development and penetration inland to the North Bay, Bay Area and Salinas Valley should be similar to how last night and this morning unfolded, along with fog in the North Bay Valleys, with clearing by mid-morning. Friday afternoons high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer across interior locations of the North Bay and Bay Area, even warmer over the interior Central Coast as progressive upper level ridging shifts across the southern half of California over the course of the day. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 223 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) The marine layer will begin to gradually deepen by Friday night into the weekend as an area of low pressure offshore moves south along the coast from the Pacific Northwest to the Central Coast by Sunday. Chances of light rain and drizzle begin to increase along the coast Saturday night through Sunday morning. Any precipitation will be light and mostly confined to the coastal areas and coastal ranges with any measurable precip remaining under 0.10" of an inch, with most spots seeing a trace to a 0.03" at most. By late Sunday, the weak disturbance gets picked up by the southern jet and begins to move inland across the southern half of California. There is a slight chance of rain across the interior as it moves inland, but once again only a trace to a few hundredths, most likely for the higher elevations of the interior Central Coast. The clouds and cooler temperatures aloft will translate to a notable cool down Monday. Amplified ridging quickly moves in Tuesday, with a steady warming trend Tuesday through the remainder of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 No major changes to the forecast as stratus continues to slither into the region. Cigs will generally be around MVFR levels, with the potential for IFR along the coast and perhaps into the North Bay valleys early tomorrow morning. Cigs are expected to clear by mid to late morning, with VFR conditions returning for the afternoon and early evening hours. Though stratus will return tomorrow evening. Medium to high confidence in this forecast. Vicinity of SFO...The stratus arrived a bit earlier than expected based on the last set of TAFS, with MVFR cigs holding over the terminal. Winds have begun to ease and should drop to less than 10kt over the next few hours. Expect conditions to begin clearing between 15-18Z, with cigs completely clearing between 18-20Z. Tomorrow afternoon, another round of breezy westerly winds are expected. Stratus should return between 00-03Z Saturday. Medium to high confidence in this forecast. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. MVFR cigs should cover the a portion of the bay this evening and may fill in the southern half of the San Francisco Bay tonight. Clouds may clear a bit faster than KOAK and KSFO in the morning. Low to medium confidence. Monterey Bay Terminals...Just when you think you have a handle on the stratus, it throws you a curve ball. With that being said, MVFR cigs hug KMRY down to Big Sur and flirt around KSNS this evening. The best guidance that captures this is the HREF and NAMNest, with KSNS seeing MVFR cigs return around 09Z. There is some uncertainty if we`ll actually hit IFR conditions at KMRY and KSNS, with KMRY having the better chances. Opted to keep the cigs around OVC007 there and put KSNS at OVC010 instead. Clearing begins by mid to late morning, with VFR cigs expected for the afternoon. Stratus returns once again late tomorrow afternoon and into the early evening. Medium to high confidence in this forecast. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 903 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Fresh to strong northwest breezes will continue into Saturday with winds becoming moderate to fresh by Sunday. Winds will be strongest over the northern outer waters where winds will result in moderate seas building to between 10 to 12 feet. With easing winds, seas will begin subside by late Saturday with conditions improving through the remainder of the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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