A few severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. Thunderstorms with heavy to excessive rainfall may produce flooding through tonight over parts of the northern High Plains, central Missouri, and along the Florida/Georgia line. Read More >
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455 FXUS66 KMTR 312340 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 440 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 - Long period southwest swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents through Tuesday morning - Continued warming for today and Monday - Slightly cooler temperatures for the second half of the forecast && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 125 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 (This evening through Monday) A compressed marine layer allowed for a quick erosion of coastal stratus in the mid to late morning. Now we`re seeing clear skies into the afternoon with light to moderate winds and temperatures already warming into the 70s in the interior. Highs looks to stay around 60 along the immediate coast with 70s for the more inland areas, 80s for the interior, and a few 90s in the far interior. This is as a ridge pattern takes a better hold onto the region, calling for continued compression of the marine layer, weakening winds, and building temperatures. The compressed marine layer (around 500 ft) will still have good moisture content overnight, leading to very low coastal clouds and pockets of fog. Because of how compressed the marine layer is, don`t expect much of an inland push overnight, causing most of the region to stay cloud free. However, the lack of winds and a slight thermal belt, look to allow some of the day time heat to linger into the night, placing lows more into the 50s than the 40s of the last few nights. This is all to say the warming trend is continuing. Monday will offer similar stratus clearing times, but an overall warmer afternoon. The coast will still be around 60 degrees and the slightly inland areas in the 70s, but much more of the interior will break into the mid to upper 80s and more areas in the far interior will build into the 90s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 125 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) Overnight temperatures will continue the warming trend as well with most of the falling into the 50s Monday night into Tuesday, with a few 60s in the higher elevations due to the influence of the thermal belt. Tuesday offers a change of pace as a weak trough disrupts the ridging pattern. This will push some cloud cover through the area and offer better onshore flow. High temperatures will see some modest cooling for most of the district, but mostly on the scale of a few degrees. This change in flow will offer a weak cooling trend for the rest of the work week. More notable cooling looks to arrive as another, deeper trough builds. Our friends in Oregon may see some rain from this through, while our current chances seem to be limited to a coastal drizzle session. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 439 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 VFR through this evening before stratus returns along the coast. Highest confidence in stratus impacting HAF, MRY, and SNS with low confidence in clouds reaching SFO and OAK. Model guidance has pushed stratus arrival to around 08-10Z. Confidence is decent in this timing but will need to keep an eye on stratus developing offshore of the Monterey Bay for MRY and SNS. Breezy onshore winds continue through this evening before winds diminish overnight. Another round of breezy onshore winds expected during the day again tomorrow. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Low confidence that stratus will reach SFO overnight but the highest chance for CIGs would be from 12-18Z. Breezy westerly winds continue through this evening, ease overnight, and strengthen again during the afternoon/evening tomorrow. Winds look to peak between 15-20 knots but cannot rule out the occasional stronger gust. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with IFR to LIFR CIGs expected overnight. The forecasted CIGs are coming in on IFR side (compared to MVFR earlier) for both MRY and SNS which matches well with observed CIGs from the previous night. There is some potential for lowered visibility overnight with LAMP guidance suggesting visibilities of less than 1SM are possible early tomorrow morning. Not fully onboard with low visibilities for the 00Z TAFs but will continue to watch the trends and adjust as needed for the 06Z TAFs. Breezy onshore winds are expected during this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon with lighter winds overnight. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 259 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 Fresh to strong northerly winds with occasional near gale force gusts and rough seas will continue through tonight. Winds begin to ease into Monday morning, with seas slowly subsiding as well. Lighter north to northwest winds continue through Tuesday, with winds increasing for the middle and later parts of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sun May 31 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement will come into effect at 5 AM today through Tuesday morning due to an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Long period southwest swell is approaching the Pacific coast, with periods of 18 to 20 seconds and a height of around 2 feet in the open waters. These long period swells result in increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly waves which surge much further up the beach than expected and sweep unaware beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents that can sweep the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn your back to the ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay from the water. Observe the waves for 20 minutes before moving closer. Swim near a lifeguard if possible, and if caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the coast away from the current, and then at an angle to shore. DialH && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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