In the Upper Midwest, heavy to excessive rain may bring flash and urban flooding through Wednesday. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest Wednesday. Extreme heat is ongoing over the Desert Southwest through Thursday. Read More >
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374 FXUS66 KMTR 080011 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 511 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 - Seasonably cool temperatures today before a warming trend begins Wednesday through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents today through Friday - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night) Seasonal to seasonally cool temperatures continue today into tomorrow thanks to a deep marine layer and expansive layer of marine stratus. The marine layer is forecast to remain between 1500-2000 feet through tomorrow as troughing continues to our west over the Pacific Ocean. Marine stratus will return across much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast tonight with pockets of fog possible across the North Bay Valleys and along the coast. If you are missing clear skies today, you will have a better chance at seeing them tomorrow. Confidence is higher tomorrow that stratus will recede by late morning/early afternoon across the interior as surface high pressure strengthens and the marine layer compresses to around 1000-1500 feet. The marine layer will help keep much of the area seasonally cool with high temperatures in the 50s to 60s along the coast and 70s to 80s across the interior Bay Area. The one exception will be the interior Central Coast where temperatures are seasonal to seasonally warm in the 80s to 90s. Marine layer influence on the interior Central Coast is minimal with building high pressure across the desert southwest having a stronger influence on that region. Breezy afternoon and evening winds continue across mountain gaps/passes (the Salinas Valley, San Bruno Gap, the Altamont Pass) and along the coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (Thursday through next Monday) The forecast begins to change Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure across the Desert Southwest retrogrades, becoming centered more over Southern California. This allows temperatures to warm up by a few (~4-5) degrees outside of coastal areas and the bay shoreline. For the interior Bay Area this results in temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with pockets of 90s in the far North Bay and far interior East Bay. The warmest locations will be in the interior Central Coast where temperatures look to be in the low 100s Thursday and Friday. The NBM deterministic is running closer to the 90th percentile for the interior Central Coast but even the mean NBM forecast keeps temperatures around 100. All that to say, whatever way you look at it the interior Central Coast will be hot on Thursday. Temperatures will remain fairly similar to this through the rest of the extended forecast as upper level ridging builds over California. High temperatures will fluctuate by 1-2 degrees but will largely stay in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s along the coast, 70s along the bay shoreline, and 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Long range models are showing early potential for strong upper level ridging to build across the Intermountain West early to mid next week. This is likely to bring above normal temperatures with initial guidance for Tuesday showing temperatures warming across the interior East Bay and interior Central Coast. This is certainly something to keep an eye on if not for the heat impacts but the fire weather risk. In addition to the hotter conditions expected in the long term, there is the potential for dry lightning Sunday into Monday. On the synoptic scale, upper level high pressure will more northeastward (towards the Intermountain West) Sunday into Monday while upper level troughing deepens over the Pacific Ocean. Our region is still primarily influenced by the upper level ridge, but, the deepening trough will result in stronger southeasterly flow across Southern California, Arizona, and the Gulf of California. This will bring a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California northward into California. PWAT values look to be between 1-1.5" Sunday into Monday which is approximately 150-200% of normal for this time of year. The highest PWAT values are currently forecast across the Central Coast, South Bay, and East Bay. At the same time, the 700- 500 mb lapse rates are between 7-8 C/km which are favorable for convection to develop. If all these ingredients are able to come together, then it is likely we would see high-based thunderstorms across portions of our CWA. Given the elevated nature of any potential thunderstorms, any precipitation that falls would evaporate before reaching the surface. The two most likely hazards would then be dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds. Hot and dry conditions this week will prime the environment for fire starts by further drying out fuels and making them more susceptible to fire starts if thunderstorms develop. Fire weather concerns are elevated Sunday into early next week as a result of the dry lightning threat. While the pattern appears conducive for thunderstorm development, there remains some uncertainty regarding specific details. The nature of these specific details may modulate the risk for a high-based convective event. This is a good time to stay tuned to the forecast as we move into the domain of higher resolution short term models and the forecast becomes clearer later this week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 502 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Marine layer stratus remains the main focus of the forecast. All terminals will develop a ceiling at some point tonight, with cloud bases in the MVFR-IFR category. Vicinity of SFO...The ceiling never cleared today, and the window is probably closed now as the stratus coverage is increasing. The ceiling will gradually lower from MVFR to IFR over the next 6 hours. While there is a good argument for a persistence forecast, I`m going to lean optimistic with a scattered window tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain WNW, decreasing through the evening before strengthening back to at least 20 knots sustained tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Clearer than the terminal for the next few hours or so before the clouds fill up the bay tonight. Monterey Bay Terminals...MRY never lost the ceiling, and it`s close to returning to SNS. There could be some brief clearing this evening, however as the Monterey Bay is mostly cloud free. The more likely outcome is the convergence along the coastline will be enough to at least keep MRY under MVFR conditions before lowering overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 916 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Moderate to strong breezes are forecast across area waters, including the bays over the next 24 hours. Northwesterly swell between 6 and 8 feet will continue, with approximately 2 to 3 foot secondary long period southerly swell persisting through the week. While winds diminish to largely gentle breezes across bays, strong breezes and rough seas will persist through early Thursday across the Pacific coast waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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