Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic States. Excessive rainfall from heavy thunderstorms may produce areas of flash flooding from southern New Mexico into the western and northern Gulf Coast into Wednesday. Read More >
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329 FXUS66 KMTR 150702 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1202 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through Thursday morning with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 (Today and tonight) An extensive stratus deck has made its way from the coast into the Sonoma County valleys, the Monterey Bay region, and the northern Salinas Valley with a patch of stratus developing near the Berkeley Hills. The stratus deck is expected to develop across the valleys with moderate to high confidence that the interior East Bay remains clear through the night. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coastal area after sunrise before it starts to build again this evening. The weather pattern across California is dominated by the fringes of a ridge over the Pacific Northwest and adjacent waters in the Pacific. Temperatures will generally range from near to slightly above seasonal averages in the Bayshore and inland regions, to below seasonal averages along the coast. With the raw NBM model output continuing to overshoot observed temperatures, I have tamped down the temperatures within the marine layer influence, which extends around 1500 feet thick based on observations from the profiler at Bodega Bay. Highs in the inland valleys reach the 80s, up to the lower to middle 90s in the warmest interior spots, the upper 60s to the 70s across the Bayshore regions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Most of the area will see Minor HeatRisk, corresponding to heat that is common during the summer period and comes with a low risk for heat-related illnesses amongst extremely sensitive populations. Isolated regions within the area, including the southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior portions of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within the Central Coast, including Pinnacles National Park, will see Moderate HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. We continue to encourage people taking part in outdoor activities big or small to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade. Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. Tonight`s high tide has passed at the San Francisco tide gauge, where a water level of 1.97 feet above normally dry ground, or 7.81 feet MLLW, was observed at 11:18 PM on Sunday, which breaks the record for the highest water level observed during the summer season (outside the winter storm season of November to March) which was just set on Saturday evening. The next high tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:02 AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) The ridge should gradually fill in through Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing the temperatures to remain relatively stable through the middle of the week. Towards Thursday and Friday, troughing should develop across the eastern Pacific and move into the western United States, allowing temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages into the upcoming weekend. Highs will range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s across the inland valleys and the upper 60s to the middle 70s along the Bays. Chances for rain are confined to the offshore regions and the Sierra Nevada range to the east of the forecast area. Towards the beginning of next week, ensemble model cluster analysis suggests some form of ridging will return to the western United States, and the 8-14 day outlook features a lean (40- 60% probability) towards temperatures above seasonal averages for the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The coastal stratus deck is set to impact the region overnight, except for LVK and the interior East Bay valleys. The stratus deck is expected to be about 1000 feet deep through the overnight hours which will bring IFR-MVFR ceilings to most terminals through Monday morning. Medium confidence on the exact timing of stratus impacts. Overnight winds will be locally influenced by the surrounding terrain of the terminals, though they are expected to remain as light to gentle breezes. Winds will gradually increase by late Monday morning to a moderate westerly breeze and persist through the afternoon. Another round of MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated Monday night, though it is not expected to be as widespread. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions paired with a gentle westerly breeze persists until ~11Z, which is roughly when the surrounding stratus deck will begin to fill in over SFO. When it does, conditions will transition to IFR until Monday morning. Onshore winds increase to moderate strength (~15 kt) by the afternoon and diminish by the evening. Medium confidence on timing of stratus impacts as some model guidance hinted at an earlier onset by a couple of hours. I settled on a later timing based on the trend from previous nights. SFO Bridge Approach...Wind pattern is similar to SFO, but will have more of a NW component. MVFR-IFR ceilings settle in earlier than SFO (~08-09Z) and are expected to dissipate at roughly the same time. Vicinity of OAK and SJC...Current satellite imagery is showing some low stratus formation east of OAK. Coastal stratus is also beginning to make its way towards SJC from the west. IFR ceilings are expected to impact OAK first and SJC second with gentle westerly breezes overnight. Conditions shift back to VFR by late Monday morning and west to northwest winds increase to 10-12kt as well. Higher confidence for stratus to return at OAK Monday night, meanwhile SJC remains VFR through the TAF period. Monterey Bay Terminals...Borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings impact the region and are expected to become IFR overnight until late Monday morning. Moderate onshore winds persist through the afternoon with SNS experiencing frequent gusts up to 20 kts. Medium to high confidence on stratus returning to both terminals Monday night as the onshore winds diminish. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Southerly breezes and moderate seas persist with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will remain fairly consistent through Monday as the seas subside. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters towards Tuesday and Wednesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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