Strong winds and dry conditions will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southeast Colorado into the southern Plains and extending into the Ozarks. An atmospheric river will bring heavy rain and a flash flood threat to northern California and heavy mountain snow in the Cascades and Northern Rockies. A clipper system will bring heavy snow to the Great Lakes. Read More >
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303 FXUS66 KMTR 241905 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1105 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1254 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 - Extensive rainfall across the Bay Area today - Nuisance flooding possible in the North Bay - Warmer and drier conditions begin Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1254 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 (Today and tonight) Showers are spreading across the Bay Area and the Central Coast tonight as a plume of moisture reaches California. So far the focus of the rainfall has been the North Bay, but the rest of the region has also seen scattered rain showers building as the dry lower layer as seen on last evening`s 00Z OAK sounding erodes away. Rain totals through Wednesday morning will range from 1 to 2 inches in the North Bay valleys and up to 4 inches in the North Bay mountains, and will progressively decrease towards the south, with rain totals of 0.5 to 1 inch expected to the west of the Berkeley-San Leandro Hills and the San Mateo-Santa Cruz Mountains, including the city of San Francisco, around 0.2-0.5 inches in the rain shadowed valleys of the South Bay and interior East Bay, and a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch in the Monterey-Salinas region. The interior Central Coast, and the southern half of the Big Sur coastline, will receive a few sprinkles in the wettest locations. Flooding concerns are minimal and are generally limited to nuisance flooding across the North Bay. Through the rest of the day, high resolution modeling suggests that the North Bay will continue to get the most consistent rainfall with scattered to widespread showers across the Bay Area and isolated showers in the Monterey Bay region. As the axis of rainfall pushes to the south, it begins to lose its connection to the moisture plume, resulting in decreasing shower coverage across the Bay Area and terrain-favored regions within the Central Coast tonight into Wednesday morning. High temperatures throughout the region will range from the middle to upper 50s across the North Bay, to the lower to middle 60s across San Francisco, Oakland, and the western San Mateo coast, the middle to upper 60s in the interior East Bay, South Bay, and Monterey Bay regions, and the lower to middle 70s in the valleys of the interior Central Coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1254 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 (Wednesday through Monday) Behind the moisture plume, ridging should return to the region and result in a warming and drying trend for the latter part of the week, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to the middle 70s through Saturday. In the wake of the rainfall, some morning fog is possible across the valleys on Wednesday morning. Otherwise conditions remain generally benign during this period with light to gentle northwest winds developing each afternoon and evening. Attention then turns towards a cut-off low that will approach the West Coast Sunday into the early part of next week. The latest review of the ensemble model cluster analysis suggests slightly greater confidence that the low will impact California, and while there are still subtle differences over how the low will evolve, all clusters generally agree that significant rainfall is not expected, although some instability-driven showers remain possible. CPC outlooks suggest that temperatures above seasonal averages are likely through the first week of March, and precipitation totals lean towards values below seasonal averages for the same period. For context, from March 3 to March 9, high temperatures in downtown San Francisco hover around 61 degrees, and said station`s average total rainfall for this period is slightly above three-quarters of an inch. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 Light rain continues to affect the north bay with the main rain band arriving into the afternoon and spreading south into the late afternoon and early evening. Expect building mid-level clouds as the rain pushes south, and some spotty low clouds, specifically at STS. Southerly winds build just ahead of the rain band, becoming breezy to gusty around the SF Bay. The front itself weakens as it pushes south, with little to no rain reaching the Monterey Bay. Winds become light into the night and cloud cover erodes into Wednesday. Vicinity of SFO... Light showers are approaching with mostly mid to high level clouds. Winds become breezier into the afternoon as scattered showers arrive. Moderate rains build with increasing mid- level clouds into the late afternoon and early evening. Scattered showers linger in the wake of the main rain band into the night as winds reduce. Expect lighter winds into early Wednesday with cloud cover eroding into the midday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Higher-level cloud cover builds through the day with moderate northwest winds arriving for the afternoon. Slight chances for non-impactful showers arrive into the evening along with scattered mid to low-level clouds. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1105 AM PST Tue Feb 24 2026 Expect light to moderate rain to spread across the waters through the day with breezy to locally gusty winds. Rain chances peak in the evening and early night, with showers becoming scattered in the late night. Expect winds to reduce into the evening and overnight hours, leading to mostly light winds into Wednesday. Seas will ease into the mid week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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