Severe weather and flooding threats will continue for portions of the central U.S. through Thursday, focused from the central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Hot and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns for the Intermountain West, and dry thunderstorms may spark additional wildfires. Dangerous heat will build across the southern U.S. Friday into the weekend. Read More >
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504 FXUS66 KMTR 250107 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 437 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast today - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a deeper marine layer for Friday and Saturday - Gusty onshore winds begin Thursday, peaking Friday and Saturday with mountain passes gusting as high as 50-60 mph and marine concerns through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) As was the case yesterday, clouds have been slow to erode from inland areas this morning with satellite showing many coastal areas still socked in. Weak upper level ridging did compress the marine layer a bit, preventing it from stretching as far inland as it did Tuesday. Patchy fog was reported across multiple coastal sites this morning but visibility is quickly improving as an eddy just off the coast is helping to lift cloud bases. For areas that remain under cloud cover, temperatures today won`t see much change from Tuesday`s highs, generally remaining in the 70s and low 80s. For interior areas, the weak ridging will be enough to push temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s today. Temps peak today with Minor HeatRisk for those warmer spots before a slow cooling trend begins Thursday. The marine layer will remain relatively compressed tonight with additional patchy fog and visibility impacts for coastal terrain into Thursday morning. Upper level troughing will begin to push in by Thursday morning, with heights slowly falling through the day. This is likely to limit interior warming for Thursday afternoon, with highs expected to be a few degrees cooler compared to today. Around the same time, a large upper level low will sweep down the Canadian coastline, tightening the gradient over California. Gusty onshore winds will begin as early as Thursday, with the strongest winds expected for Friday and the weekend. Marine impacts/details from the uptick in winds can be found in the marine discussion below and in the Small Craft Advisory. The long-period southerly swell will continue to impact the Pacific Coast beaches through this afternoon with a lull for the end of the week. High rip current risk with sneaker waves...never turn your back to the ocean! Additional beach hazards will be possible this weekended, please see additional details in the discussion below. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) A more significant cooldown will arrive Friday as heights continue to fall with the approaching low to the north. A frontal passage Friday could bring about 40-50+ mph winds for mountain passes and wind-prone spots, and 30-35 mph winds for the coastal waters. Low and mid-level moisture will surge in Friday as well, with a deepening marine layer and 50%+ min RH for every location except the very far interior spots. Drizzle and light rain will not be out of the question for both Friday and Saturday mornings given a sufficiently deep marine layer, and clouds may struggle to clear out Friday afternoon. Fire weather concerns will also be limited despite the strong winds given how high the humidity will be, along with excellent overnight recovery into Saturday morning. Saturday will be the coolest day of the forecast period with ample moisture and a deep marine layer limiting daytime heating. Interior spots may be limited to the low 70s with 60s for most other locations and 50s right along the coast, around 10-15 degrees below normal. Cooler weather and gusty onshore winds prevail into Sunday, but the aforementioned low pivots northeastward and winds begin to weaken by Sunday evening. With the lows true departure on Monday, upper level ridging attempts to move back in but may face some push back. Ensemble members continue to trend more in favor with a troughing pattern prevailing into early week which would support a minimal to slow warming trend compared to the cooler weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 436 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Onshore breezes will usher stratus /MVFR-IFR/ inland tonight and Thursday morning. Stratus mixes out to the coastline with conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Thursday morning and afternoon. Coastal stratus redevelops Thursday night and Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR then stratus /MVFR/ moves in 05z this evening and prevails Thursday morning with mix out to VFR 17z Thursday. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ returns Thursday evening. West wind 15 to 20 knots to mid evening then decreasing to near 10 knots tonight and Thursday morning. West wind near 20 knots Thursday afternoon to mid evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...For SJC Airport VFR for the evening, then stratus /MVFR/ develops overnight then mixes out to VFR 17z Thursday. Northwest wind near 10 knots decreasing to light and variable wind Thursday morning then northwest 12 knots Thursday afternoon. For OAK Airport VFR until mid evening then stratus /IFR/ prevails tonight and Thursday morning, mixing out to VFR 19z. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ returns Thursday evening. West wind 5 to 15 knots. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ moves inland early to mid evening then prevails tonight and Thursday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR late Thursday morning and afternoon. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 427 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will resume across the waters tonight through the latter part of the week. Occasional gale-force gusts will develop along the coastal waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts will develop this afternoon and continue through at least early Friday. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .BEACHES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 16 to 18 seconds emanating from energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! The southerly swell is expected to subside tonight into the latter half of the work week before increasing again by the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zuber LONG TERM....Zuber AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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