Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will contribute to critical fire weather conditions across parts of the northern Great Plains and Great Basin Wednesday. Read More >
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255 FXUS66 KMTR 130616 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1116 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 - Cooling trend continues today and Wednesday - Elevated fire weather risk for far interior San Benito and Monterey counties this afternoon and evening - Warming and drying trend resumes Thursday through the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 Noticeable cooldown across the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon thanks to a departing area of high pressure and solid marine intrusion. The biggest 24 hour trends were across the higher terrain and interior locations with some spots 5 to 15 degrees colder today than Monday. Despite the cooldown max temps were still several degrees above seasonal averages. In addition to the cooldown, onshore flow brought some gusty winds to the coast and inland gaps/passes/valleys. Max gusts ranged from 25-50 mph. Winds have eased a little since this afternoon, but still seeing strong gusts near the Marin headlands and East Bay Hills. No update needed this evening. While stratus is patchy at the moment do expect some expansion as the night progresses. MM && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) The satellite imagery shows stratus coverage across the coastal regions and some lingering into the valleys of the Bay Area as a thin layer of high clouds persists over the region, with gradual clearing across the inland and Bayshore regions into the afternoon while the coast remains socked in. Stratus coverage should rebuild this evening and overnight but should not come as far into the southern Salinas Valley or the North Bay valleys as we saw this morning. The large scale weather pattern features a departing ridge moving into the northern and central Rockies while a trough centered on an upper level low around 500 miles to the west of the Oregon Coast moves in, resulting in a gradual cooling trend today into Wednesday and an expansion of the marine layer. The latest readings from the Bodega Bay profiler suggest a marine layer around 1500-2000 feet thick, remaining rather consistent through the next couple of days as the trough passes through the region. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s in the inland valleys, the upper 80s to lower 90s in southern Monterey and San Benito Counties, the middle 60s to the middle 70s in the bayshore regions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Highs might be a few degrees cooler where the stratus is slower to dissipate than the forecast or does not clear out this afternoon. Low temperatures on Wednesday morning range from the upper 40s to the middle 50s across the lower elevations, while Wednesday`s highs will range from the lower 70s to the lower 80s for the inland valleys. As the trough moves through, the increasing pressure gradients will result in breezy and gusty winds starting this afternoon through Wednesday, with the gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph across the coastal and higher elevation regions and the northern Salinas Valley. Isolated favored regions, namely the Mayacama range and the Altamont Pass, may reach gusts of 40 to 45 mph this evening and overnight. Elevated fire weather risks will set up starting this afternoon across a narrow strip of the far interior San Benito and Monterey counties adjacent to the Central Valley. A particularly concerning combination of gusty winds, hot temperatures, low daytime humidities, and poor overnight humidity recoveries across this region will result in a period of elevated fire weather concerns across this strip through the evening hours. Any fires that start in the drier grasses across this region may take hold and spread rather quickly. Our neighbors in Hanford have issued a Red Flag Warning for the adjacent zones across the western edge of Fresno County, but in our area of responsibility. the fire weather concerns are not widespread enough to warrant any products. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) As the trough moves out, warmer and drier weather will return to the region with highs on Thursday and Friday in the 80s to the lower 90s in the interior valleys, the middle 70s to lower 80s across the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s in the Pacific coast. A second trough coming down from the Gulf of Alaska will interrupt the warming trend this weekend, with inland highs dipping in to the lower 70s to lower 80s on Saturday before bouncing back to the upper 70s to middle 80s for Sunday. Uncertainty in the forecast starts to increase in the early part of next week as the ensemble models struggle to diagnose the interaction between an upper level ridge and trough over the western United States. Model ensemble means from the American GEFS, European ECMWF, and Canadian GEPS models suggest a ridge over the eastern Pacific and a trough over the Rockies should develop by Monday morning, although with significant differences in the strength of both features. However, a peek into the model ensemble clusters reveals a significant minority of the ensemble members (around 30- 40%) show an alternate scenario where more zonal flow or troughing develops over the West Coast, nudging the forecast towards cooler temperatures. Past the 7-day outlook, CPC outlooks into the later part of May show a slight lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages, and precipitation totals near or above seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 Breezy to gusty onshore winds will persist through a majority the TAF period for sites along the coast. Winds are reducing into the night, but are expected increase again late morning into the afternoon on Wednesday. MVFR cigs continue to develop and persisting through late morning Wednesday. The timing and coverage of IFR/LIFR cigs is low confidence, and if reached may not persist for long. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR cigs are expected persist through late morning Wednesday. Gusty onshore winds extending through much the TAF period, peaking around 30 kts Wednesday afternoon, but winds ease Wednesday night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs are expected to persist through the late night, becoming IFR after and continuing through mid-morning Wednesday. KSNS is expected to clear out Noon with some partial clearing possible at KMRY by early afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 443 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 Hazardous marine conditions develop midweek and will continue into next week. Winds increase through the remainder of the week with strong to near gale force winds and occasional gale force gusts Wednesday and Thursday. Wind driven seas will build to between 10 to 12 feet Wednesday and Thursday. Surface high pressure will then strengthen over the eastern Pacific Friday into next week. This will result in a strong coastal jet, widespread gale force to potentially severe gale winds, and very high, wind driven seas between 12 to 17 feet expected. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION... MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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