Lake effect snow showers will continue through Saturday downwind of Lakes Erie, Ontario and the eastern portion of Lake Superior. A series of storm systems will continue to impact California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into next week, bringing widespread rainfall, mountain snowfall, and gusty winds. Coastal flooding is expected in northern California. Read More >
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466 FXUS66 KMTR 021132 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 332 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 - High astronomical tides combined with storm surge will bring substantial tidal flooding through Sunday - Strong southerly winds Friday night into Saturday morning - Chance of thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend - Daily rain showers expected through Monday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1236 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 (Today and tonight) There`s a few scattered showers on radar, but we`re mostly enjoying a break before the next round of heavy rain and strong wind arrives tonight. Southerly winds are starting to show up along the coast and in properly oriented valleys. Salinas and Half Moon Bay are both reporting a moderate southerly breeze with gusts up to 20 knots. The IR satellite image shows what we`re up against later today. A mature low pressure system in the Eastern Pacific around 40N137W is supporting a very long cold-type occluded front. As this front approaches the coast overnight, the rain intensity and wind strength will both increase. Winds will steadily increase through the day, peaking around midnight. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are expected, with occasional gusts to 50 mph along the coast and in higher terrain. That`s a little weaker than last week`s storms, but still enough to cause tree damage and possible power outages. On average we`re expecting about 1/2" of rain overnight, with up to 3" in the coastal mountains and closer to 1/4" in the rain shadowed valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1236 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) After the front passes Saturday morning, the precipitation mode will switch from stratiform rain to convective showers. Some of these showers will be strong, and there is a decent chance for thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday as a few post frontal short wave troughs move through. The 06Z HRRR shows one of these pulses will line up well with the warmer, more unstable conditions in the afternoon. There is a marginal chance for severe thunderstorms in the North and East Bay, with tornadoes as the most likely severe threat in the typical low CAPE, high shear environment. High resolution model point soundings in the North Bay show around 100 J/kg of CAPE, with 40-50 kts of 0-1km shear, low LCL heights, and a nicely curved low level hodograph Saturday afternoon. The severe threat is focused on the North Bay, but not confined there. Landfalling waterspouts are possible along the coast. Reinforcing wet cold fronts will move through Sunday and Monday, with a much drier FROPA midweek. This parade of cold fronts will drop the 1000-500 mb thickness from 5,530 m today to 5,340 m by Friday, bringing snow levels to around 3,000 feet. If we can get any moisture late next week we`d have a real chance for some snow flakes in the higher peaks around the Bay Area and Central Coast. Otherwise we`ll see temperatures drop back into the 30s for inland areas towards the end of next week as a drier, more stable pattern moves in. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 332 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 VFR-MVFR with areas of light showers this morning. MVFR-IFR tonight and Saturday with increasing rain and southerly winds. Winds becoming strong and gusty tonight and Saturday morning, with low wind shear possible though not currently indicated in the 12z TAFs since it is likely that there`ll be surface to lower level mixing of winds. Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR. Off and on wet weather today, then steady wet weather later today, tonight and Saturday. Increasingly gusty southerly winds developing later today, tonight and Saturday morning. Wind gusts to 35-40 knots tonight and early Saturday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR. Off and on wet weather today, then steady wet weather tonight and Saturday. Increasingly gusty southerly to southeasterly winds developing today, tonight and Saturday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 Gales will develop over the coastal waters today and continue tonight. Gales will continue over the northern outer waters Saturday while winds decrease elsewhere. Expect wet, unsettled weather and rough seas with a slight chance of thunderstorms over the weekend. Wet and chilly weather continues early next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1236 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the San Francisco Bay through Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Pacific Coast and Monterey Bay through Sunday. Perigean spring tides (king tides) will impact the region through Sunday. This is due to the combination of the full moon on 1/3, lunar perigee on 1/1, and perihelion on 1/3. In other words the earth, sun and moon are lined up and close to each other. In addition to the high astronomical tide, the incoming low pressure system will bring strong southerly winds, generating some storm surge, particularly on Saturday morning. The combination of these factors will bring moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide through Sunday. On Thursday, the San Francisco tidal gauge recorded 2.1 ft of inundation. Looking ahead, high tide is expected to be 2.2 ft above normal at 9:34 AM Friday, 2.5 ft above normal at 10:26 AM Saturday, and 1.9 ft above normal at 11:18 AM Sunday. These predictions include up to 1.3 feet of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. A reasonable worse case scenario (10% exceedance chance) is 2.7 ft of inundation on Saturday. The all time record is 2.8 ft from 1/27/1983. 2.5 ft hasn`t been reached since 1998. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for CAZ006- 506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508. Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-508. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-502>505-509-512-515>518-528>530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Sunday for CAZ505-509-529- 530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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