A powerful Arctic blast will bring dangerously cold, record low temperatures to the upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. this weekend. A rapidly deepening storm will produce widespread heavy snow and wind from the southern Appalachians across the Carolinas and southern Virginia into Sunday. Storm-force winds and coastal flooding will be possible along the East Coast. Read More >
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497 FXUS66 KMTR 311139 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 339 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 - Pleasant, warm, and dry conditions persist through the next week - Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore along the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday - Hazardous beach conditions due to an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 (Today and tonight) Thin high level clouds blanket the satellite imagery, making it hard to evaluate the evolution of fog and low stratus across the region. Surface observations suggest that patchy fog and mist have developed, mainly in the North and East Bay valleys. The thin high clouds are lowering confidence in the amount of radiational cooling and thus any further expansion of the stratus layer, but expect the stratus impacts to persist through the morning. The weather pattern continues to center around an upper level ridge that is slowly progressing into the Great Basin, giving us another day of seasonably warm temperatures. In particular, San Jose continues to flirt with a daily record high today; the current forecast high of 69 is just two degrees cooler than the record of 71 set in 1962 and tied in 2015. Elsewhere across the region, high temperatures range from the middle 60s in the interior valleys of the North and East Bay, the lower 70s in the Monterey Bay region, the middle to upper 70s in the South Bay and the interior Central Coast valleys, and the lower 60s across the North Bay Pacific coast, into the Bayside areas of the North Bay and the far interior portions of Contra Costa County. Winds will be light with a generally offshore component across the inland regions, while a light onshore breeze develops along the coast in the afternoon. Minor coastal flooding is possible for low-lying areas directly along the bayshore of the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays near high tide today and Sunday, the result of a combination of elevated astronomical tides and storm surge from the system off the coast of British Columbia. Note that we are not anticipating major coastal flooding impacts like those seen at the beginning of the month, and will be limited to those locations that typically see impacts from the King Tides. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, the maximum inundation is expected to be around 1.3 feet above normally dry ground, or 7.20 ft MLLW, at around 9:30 AM today; this figure includes impacts from both astronomical tides and storm surge. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 (Sunday through Friday) A shortwave trough will brush past the region on Sunday as the ridge continues to move off to the east, leading to a more zonal upper level pattern across the region. With any rain chances now far to the north of our area of responsibility, the most prominent impact to the sensible weather will be increased cloudiness, brisker winds, and a slight cooling trend across the South Bay into the Central Coast. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will dip into the middle 60s to near 70 across the Santa Clara Valley and the Monterey Bay region, while the Salinas Valley dips into the lower to middle 70s. Upper level ridging redevelops over the West Coast by Tuesday and persists into the end of the 7-day outlook, and temperatures should rebound to the middle 60s to middle 70s in the interior valleys. The very tail end of the outlook does show the ridge beginning to break down with an associated slight cooling beginning next Friday, but the weather should remain dry. The CPC 6-10 day outlook, covering February 5 to 9, continues to show a high likelihood (80-90% probability) of temperatures above seasonal averages, and a lean (40- 50% probability) of rainfall totals below seasonal averages for the stated period. For context, downtown San Francisco`s long term averages for this period are for a high of 60 degrees and a rainfall total around three quarters of an inch. Beyond that, ensemble model means are starting to depict some chances of rain around the 10th, but as the previous forecaster noted, the models have consistently shown rain at the very end of their runs before backing off as the day gets closer, so any increase in forecaster confidence will depend on whether the trend for rain around the 10th persists as it gets closer. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 339 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. High confidence in VFR by this afternoon. A decaying cold front will encroach the region tonight, leading to cooler and moister conditions and the return of onshore flow which will bring renewed chances for sub-VFR conditions to all terminals. The TAFs are pessimistic with a reasonable earliest arrival of reduced visibilities/cloud decks. Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with light easterly winds and mist being observed. Aside from the mist this morning, VFR is expected to prevail at least through this afternoon. Reasonable worst case scenario of sub-VFR conditions returning as early as 06Z tonight. Light northerly/northeasterly winds will prevail. SFO Bridge Approach...MVFR visibilities are being observed along the San Mateo Bridge Approach. There`s a low probability (less than 35% chance) that radiative stratus below FL040 will develop through this morning. High confidence in VFR by this afternoon. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with drainage flow at SNS. Diurnal winds will prevail. Low probability (25%) for sub-VFR conditions (likely IFR) to return tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 339 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 Moderate seas and a gentle northerly/offshore breeze will prevail today. Hazardous marine conditions return tomorrow morning and persist through Monday as seas build to become rough for the inner waters and outer waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong. Conditions improve Tuesday with moderate seas and a gentle northerly breeze prevailing through Wednesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026 Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .CLIMATE... Issued at 647 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for January 31st. Location Jan 31st Record High Santa Rosa 73 in 1953 San Rafael 78 in 2015 Kentfield 75 in 2015 Napa 77 in 2015 Richmond 75 in 2015 Livermore 79 in 2022 San Francisco 74 in 2015 SFO Airport 74 in 2015 Redwood City 75 in 2015 Half Moon Bay 72 in 2015, 1976, 1962 Oakland Museum 78 in 2015 San Jose 71 in 2015, 1962 Salinas Airport 79 in 1976 King City 85 in 1976 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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