A round of severe thunderstorms are forecast across areas of the Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight; The threat for flash flooding will also accompany these storms. The rainfall for the Great Lakes region could prolong the ongoing flooding. Where the rain is needed, the Southern High Plains, critical fire weather concerns through today. Read More >
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739 FXUS66 KMTR 171849 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1149 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1148 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Seasonably warm temperatures expected through the weekend - Cooler temperatures and beneficial rain for the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1148 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 (This afternoon through Saturday) Gusty offshore winds prevail across the Vaca Range, Mayacamas Range, and higher elevations of the East Bay Hills (such as Mt. Diablo). However, as the day progresses, wind speeds will gradually diminish as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific. Thus, a gradual warming trend will continue today with temperatures reaching the mid 60s to low 70s across the interior (potentially mid 70s in the warmest interior locations). Overnight, temperatures will be chilly and lower into the 40s across most of the lower elevations and near 50 degrees F closer to the coast. However, these temperatures are near seasonal averages. High clouds are forecast to stream in from the west during the overnight hours. These high clouds will persist into Saturday when we are forecasting the warmest temperatures of the weekend to occur. This is as the mid/upper level short wave ridge axis will become positioned over much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. There is a greater than 50% probability for San Jose, Gilroy, Hollister, and King City to exceed 80 degrees F on Saturday afternoon (but near 0% of exceeding 85 degrees F). Elsewhere, we are expecting mid-to- upper 60s on northwest facing coastal locations and low-to-upper 70s across the rest of the region. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1148 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) A gradual cooling trend will begin on Sunday as a mid/upper level low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the Pacific Northwest and northern California coast. This will bring unsettled weather to much of the region Monday and Tuesday with temperatures dropping to below seasonal averages. Rain chances begin across the North Bay late Sunday, yet rainfall amounts will generally be light (if any occurs). There are still differences in the deterministic models with the ECMWF bringing rain to the North Bay late Sunday while the GFS does not bring widespread precipitation in until Monday afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will also increase ahead of and along the frontal boundary, yet how strong they will be remains in question. Tuesday will be when the Bay Area and Central Coast will have the greatest potential for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. We will have a better handle on the evolution of this system once we get in the range of the high resolution and convection-allowing models. Post-frontal rain showers look to linger into Wednesday. There still is no clear signal of what the pattern looks like heading into late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Quiet weather as light and variable winds to slightly offshore become onshore winds this afternoon. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as the threat for low-level clouds is limited, with the exception of KHAF. Around 15Z, there is a layer of lower CIGs right off the coast that may move onshore and result in a brief period of MVFR conditions. Vicinity of SFO...Winds will continue to turn to the northwest and west this afternoon, with speeds increasing to around 10-15kt and the potential for 20kt gusts from 21-02Z. Westerly winds begin to ease around or just after sunset, with winds becoming light and variable around 12Z. Offshore flow returns late tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected with high clouds passing through. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are accompanied with lighter winds today. At MRY, there is a period around 03-04z where winds will be variable before becoming ESE by 09Z. SNS will also experience light and variable winds before the offshore flow settles in. No low-level clouds are currently expected this TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1126 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Northwest winds and seas will gradually decrease and subside through Saturday. On Sunday winds will shift to the south ahead of a Pacific low pressure system that will bring rain to the area beginning early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...KR/AN MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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