An arctic cold front will quickly track across the Great Lakes, Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Snow showers and squalls will accompany this system with increasing winds and falling temperatures. Damaging wind gusts may result in tree damage and power outages. Meanwhile, moisture returns for the Pacific Northwest this weekend with both coverage and intensity of rainfall and higher elevation snows. Read More >
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146 FXUS66 KMTR 061052 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 252 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...New MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches. - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night. - Better chances for rain middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (Today through Saturday) Recent KMUX imagery shows scattered returns moving northward over the Central Coast this morning. This is in response to mid level moisture moving northward along a passing upper level low that will travel southeastward over the ocean down the Central Coast today. No measurable precipitation is expected, but given that KMUX is getting some echos between 20-30 dBz, went ahead and threw in mention of isolated sprinkles down the Big Sur coast for this morning. Regardless, the vast majority of the area will remain dry, with only an increase in cloud cover today. However, that increased cloud cover will help minimize any valley fog this morning. Temperatures are expected to still climb just slightly above seasonal norms today, but with the increased cloud cover and cooler air moving in with the low, it should feel a little cooler compared to recently. Weak ridging is expected to return tonight and into Saturday. This should help clear some of the skies out tonight which may allow for radiational fog development in valley locations. Otherwise, the cooler airmass should provide similar temperatures on Saturday with highs in the 60s and upper 50s/low 60s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (Saturday Night through Thursday) The pattern begins to shift on Sunday. While the weak ridge will remain in place over Central California during the day on Sunday, a longwave trough in the northeast Pacific will begin to make it slow movement southward down the British Columbia coastline. This wave will eventually send a couple of shorter waves that can provide additional chances for rain through the middle of next week. The first weak short wave is expected to eject away from this parent wave and move over the Pacific northwest Sunday evening. With the majority of ensemble members continuing to highlight the higher QPF in the Pacific northwest, blended PoPs were adjusted down for Sunday evening to confine the highest chances (20 to 40 percent) to the North Bay. This left just a 15 to 20 percent chance that light rain makes it to the city of San Francisco with a less than 15 percent chance it makes it to the South Bay (and even then it probably would not reach the South Bay until around or after midnight). Regardless, the amount of rain is expected to be only a couple hundredths in the North Bay and less to the south. Models are projecting a more stout shortwave trough to descend down the coastline Tuesday through Wednesday. Cluster analysis is highlighting that models are still struggling with the depth and track of the upper level trough. However, with increased moisture and better forcing, it looks like a better chance for rain across the forecast area. Higher coastal elevations could see over a quarter of an inch of rain, but inland areas could be impacted by the rain shadow and see much less. Lastly, a cooler air mass aloft will accompany this trough, allowing for temperatures next week to return to more seasonable norms. Once that trough passes there could be a break in the precip toward the end of next week. However, models are keeping an active pattern aloft which may bring another rainy system to the area next weekend. It is still a little too early for the details, but something to certainly keep an eye on. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 941 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 Mainly VFR at the terminals, except locally lower visibility to MVFR conditions due to haze. Mid to high clouds should limit fog formation overnight. However, a low chance of fog still exists near KSTS/KAPC. Winds overnight will be light and diurnally driven. Locally breezy conditions with any light, passing showers late tonight into Friday morning. An uptick of onshore winds will bring higher chances of coastal stratus/mist overnight, but extent should be limited. Potential for ceiling/vis impacts from stratus/mist will increase Friday night into Saturday morning as onshore winds become more widespread. Vicinity of SFO...Mid to high clouds should limit chances for HZ/BR forming Friday morning. Winds light NW overnight. Low potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday morning. Could see some sprinkles during this time. Higher potential for stratus to return Friday night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Mid to high clouds should limit chances for HZ/BR forming Friday morning. Winds light overnight. Low potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday morning near KOAK. Could see some sprinkles during this time. Higher potential for stratus to return Friday night. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR expected overnight into Friday morning under mid to high clouds. Could see some sprinkles during this time. Light southeast winds overnight through Friday morning, becoming northwest Friday afternoon. Higher potential for stratus to return Friday night. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 A shallow cool air mass drifting over the coastal waters will result in light to gentle northwest winds today in to Saturday. Hazardous seas over the coastal waters today continues tonight and early Saturday morning before seas diminish. A cold front moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays Sunday night resulting in an increase in northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 A High Surf Advisory will be in effect beginning 4 AM PST today at all Pacific Coast beaches, the High Surf Advisory continues through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet. Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST early this morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM....DK AVIATION...Tangen MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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