Arctic air lingers for the east, however, winds will slowly subside and a slow moderating trend starts during the week. Moisture continues to provide rainfall and higher elevation snow for the Pacific Northwest, northern California and northern Rockies through Monday. For the State of Hawaii, dangerous surf conditions with strong winds and heavy rainfall will impact the islands through Monday. Read More >
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631 FXUS66 KMTR 090130 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 530 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 - Rain chances (30-50%) through this evening mainly confined to northern portions of Sonoma county. - Wetting rains expected Tuesday into Wednesday and again next weekend. - Active weather pattern begins this weekend and continues through next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (This evening through Monday) The main cold front this afternoon is visible on satellite as a line of cumulus that extends from Mendocino county southwest out into the Pac Ocean. The interesting feature though is the atmospheric bore that has ripping out ahead of the cold front, running out on top of the marine layer. As it moved across Point Reyes tower camera, the stratus came through with a bit of drizzle as well. RAP Bufkit soundings in the Bay area look to have picked up on this bit of moisture, with SFO/OAK/SJC all showing a brief uptick in saturation in the low level saturation, so you can`t rule out a brief hit of stratus/drizzle in the Bay area as this bore moves in, though likely fizzles out as it begins to interact with the land. As for the main precipitation shield with this front, water vapor imagery shows a deep plume of moisture moving into Oregon and Washington, with models continuing to keep the main synoptically forced rain region remaining farther norther. In addition, low and mid-level simulated WV imagery from special WOFs runs shows a wedge of dry air moving in across central California to the south of the main moisture plume up in Ore/Wash. This dry air shows up in forecast soundings as a wedge of very dry air from h85 to h7 that will keep it dry through this area. Also drying out on forecast soundings are the low levels, with fog looking much less certain tonight than what we had this morning. Adding a layer of complexity to the fog potential is that we will have that band of mid/upper clouds streaming south through the night that could really limit radiational fog potential for the north bay. Other than the potential for mid/upper clouds, Monday looks like another pleasant weather day before more active weather finally makes a return. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) For Tuesday into Wednesday, the GFS has followed the ECMWF in being much stronger with the system that moves into the California coast, with closed lows from the surface up to h5. This includes 30-40 kt southerly jets at 925 and 850 mb that will crash into the Bay area that will help push a stronger moisture surge into the area, with a good wetting rain expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Precip amounts continue to creep up with this event, with most lower elevations forecast to get 0.5" to 0.75" of rain, with up to 1.5" of rain in the high elevations of the Big Sur region. Surface troughing will linger through Wednesday night, which will keep some light rain/drizzle going in coastal mountains into early Thursday. Thursday and Friday continue to trend dry as a ridge moves through out ahead of our weekend trough that will be developing in the northeast Pac. As for that weekend trough, there are timing differences with when the firehose of moisture arrives, but whether it arrives Saturday afternoon (GFS/GEFS) or Saturday night (ECMWF/EPS), everything ends up in the same spot, a very wet end to next weekend, with PoPs in excess of 80% already in place a week out, indicative of this being a fairly predictable event. This will just be the start of a wet pattern, with numerous rounds of rain continuing through the following work week. As for snow potential, we do see freezing levels come down this weekend, but from the perspective of the MTR area, it`s only the tops of our tallest peaks that show some snow potential. Freezing levels look to take a further step down next week (week of 2/16), which is when maybe we could see freezing levels low enough to start getting into the MTR mountains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 349 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 A weak front will move across the area tonight. A few light showers will develop over the North Bay, but rain amounts will be minimal. Additionally, marine stratus has moved into coastal areas ahead of the front. Low stratus will push inland late this afternoon and evening, bringing IFR/MVFR ceilings to most terminals. As the main front moves through this evening and overnight, low ceilings will continue, but should not be quite as low as the activity late this afternoon. This should also reduce any threat for fog development. Behind the front Monday morning, winds will turn northerly, bringing in drier air. Conditions will improve as a result with widespread VFR conditions returning. Winds will mainly be light onshore/NW this evening, turning northerly on Monday. Vicinity of SFO...Marine stratus will continue to bring IFR conditions through early evening, but should lift to MVFR by mid evening (around 02-04Z) and continue overnight as the front pushes through. Conditions will improve early Monday morning as northerly winds bring in drier air and erode the stratus layer. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the day Monday. Winds WNW around 10 kts or less overnight, then light northerly on Monday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Marine stratus has pushed into OAK, and will advance toward SJC this evening, arriving 02-04Z. Mainly MVFR conditions, although brief IFR is possible. Improvement is expected late tonight into early Monday morning (around 10-14Z) as drier air is brought in by northerly winds and erodes the stratus. Fog potential is lower tonight than previous nights. Winds light W-NW this evening, becoming N-NW on Monday. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist over MRY/SNS through the evening. Confidence on low ceilings decreases overnight into Monday morning. By late Monday morning, conditions will be VFR as stratus erodes. Winds will be light NW to variable. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 349 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 A cold front will move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays tonight and early Monday. Seas will continue moderate today. Northwest winds will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today into Monday. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM....MPG AVIATION...Tangen MARINE...Soulat Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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