A strong atmospheric river will continue heavy rain over southern California through Friday. The heaviest rainfall is ongoing today in the Los Angeles Basin. Flash and urban flooding is possible. A prolonged heavy snowfall has begun over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and will continue through Friday. Travel will become increasingly difficult over the passes due to snow and strong winds. Read More >
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718 FXUS66 KMTR 251744 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 944 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1052 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025 - Strong and damaging winds continue overnight through Thursday evening. - A flood watch remains in effect through Friday evening across the region. The main threat is flash flooding and landslides from high rain rates. - Slight chances for severe thunderstorms begin this evening and continue through Thursday evening. Severe threats include damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes. - Dangerous beach and marine conditions continue through Friday across the Pacific coast and adjacent beaches. - Cold temperatures settle in this weekend after the storms break && .UPDATE... Issued at 532 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025 The main rain band has passed to the east of us. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings were issued overnight across the Bay Area as the damaging winds and intense rain came through the region. Wind gusts remain elevated across the region, and the immense rainfall is still making its way across the urban landscape of the Bay Area. We are continuing to receive reports of roadway flooding across the Bay Area. If you come across a flooded roadway, turn around, don`t drown! Even if you don`t, take care if you do have to travel across the region today, as the intense winds brought down trees, branches, and power lines across the roadways. Scattered showers continue through the morning with the latest high resolution guidance showing a signal for some organized thunderstorms to return late this afternoon and this evening as a shortwave approaches the state. Highest wind reports overnight are 92 mph at the North Peak Access Road PG&E station in northwestern San Mateo County, 91 mph at the O`Neill Sea Odyssey station near Santa Cruz harbor, and 90 mph at the Mount Umunhum PG&E station and the Gunsight Fire Road PG&E station in the Marin County highlands. Downtown San Francisco reported 0.74 inches of rain from 5 PM yesterday to 5 AM this morning. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1052 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025 (Tonight through Friday) Don`t let your guard down, the line of showers and thunderstorms with strong winds that swept through our area earlier this (Wednesday) evening was only a precursor to what is expected to be the most impactful line of storms yet, that is currently about to enter our outer marine zones about 100mi offshore. Impacts for the next line are expected to be felt by Midnight PST, with another round of strong wind, periods of heavy rain with the potential of low top supercells producing waterspouts that could move onshore as short-lived tornadoes or straight line winds up to 80 MPH or higher. The High Wind Warning remains in place until 10 AM PST Thursday (Christmas) morning and may be extended. Our Flood Watch remains in place until Friday night at 10 PM PST. The SPC continues to have our entire Pacific Coast line in a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms through early Friday morning at 4 AM. That means, the line off showers and thunderstorms progged to move onshore as early as late afternoon Thursday into the evening hours may be just as impactful as the one currently on our door step. That means all hazards mentioned above are in play through at least tomorrow night, along with the dangerous beach hazards and gale to near storm force winds over both our coastal and outer waters. If traveling Christmas day or night, expect extensive travel delays, along with power outages and urban/nuisance flooding. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1052 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025 (Friday night through next Wednesday) *Long term discussion remains unchanged from Wednesday afternoon update* Starting in the early morning Friday, winds and shower activity will gradually decrease as the low pressure system offshore opens up into a trough and moves into northern Oregon. The associated surface trough axis will move across the Bay Area Friday evening. This will finally flip the winds back to northerly, bringing drier, cooler weather for the weekend. The 1000-500 mb thickness actually increases this weekend, with the cooling coming mainly from enhanced radiation during in the cloudless nights. Sunday through Tuesday look particularly calm, clear and cool as a 500 mb ridge sets in. The next troughing pattern looks probable on the 1st or 2nd, just in time for King Tides. There`s no strong signal for major impacts yet, but the CW3E ECCC AR Activity tool shows higher than normal chances for atmospheric rivers through the first half of January. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 929 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025 A dry slot is allowing some sun to reach the ground, but strong southerly winds are ongoing. Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase through the afternoon, with a distinct peak in activity expected around 01-03Z as a line of strong thunderstorms rolls through. Behind this line, the activity will switch to more scattered showers and moderate to strong southerly winds for the remainder of the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Winds will stay fixed from the south all day. There is some uncertainty regarding the onset of rain showers and possible thunderstorms. The latest high resolution guidance shows a line of showers developing around 19-20Z, but it`s unclear if these storms will train over SFO or stay further south. The final push of strong showers and likely thunderstorms should move through around 01-02Z and I`ve included a TEMPO line in the TAF for these brief, but impactful conditions. After this main band moves through, showers will become lighter and much more scattered, but the strong southerly winds will remain through the TAF period and into Friday before finally shifting back to westerly and easing Friday night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...The southern terminals have the best chance of dodging the initial push of shower activity this afternoon, but will still be hit by the stronger band that rolls through this evening. Winds will remain strong out of the south all day and into Friday. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 929 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY... While the Storm Warnings have ended, Southeast gales continue across the coastal waters and will persist into Friday morning. These dangerous winds are accompanied by a chance for thunderstorms and possible waterspouts through the evening. Very rough, choppy seas will accompany these gales and linger through the day Friday, reinforced by a moderate westerly swell. If your vessel is not able to handle these conditions return to port or seek protected waters as soon as possible. && .BEACHES... Issued at 325 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025 A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the coast through 4AM Friday. The main concerns include:blowing and drifting sand and wind waves up to 20 ft. The drifting sand and increased sea spray will also result in poor visibilities, affecting water rescues. Increased coastal erosion will be possible as well. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. Flood Watch through Friday evening for CAZ006-502>506-508>510- 512>518-528>530. High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ006-503- 505-509-517-528>530. Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ502-504-506- 508-510-512>516-518. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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