A widespread heat wave will peak over the South and East today, with several dozen temperature records expected along the East Coast. Heat should begin to ease this weekend in the Northeast, while hazardous heat continues over the South. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible across parts of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Read More >
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651 FXUS66 KMTR 121818 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 - Hot and dry through today for interior locations with a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along south- and southwest-facing beaches this weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The short term forecast is on track, no changes anticipated. The surge of stratus that moved into the coastal locations overnight has begun to recede but will linger over the marine environment as the northerly extent of the stratus and patchy fog nearly stops off the Pacific coast of Sonoma county. Remaining stratus that is hugging tight to the coastal cities, such as Monterey, Santa Cruz, Half Moon, west San Francisco, and Bolinas, will continue to rescind into the early afternoon returning this evening and overnight. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (Today and tonight) GOES-West nighttime microphysics imagery reveals a much-welcomed surge of stratus returning to Pacific coastal locations since the evening hours. This has resulted in broken/overcast skies to communities such as Monterey, Salinas, Santa Cruz, and Half Moon Bay, as well as the western half of San Francisco. Areas of fog have also been reported. Some locations in the Santa Cruz Mountains are running 10-15 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Following a hot day for interior areas, temperatures have been running generally a few to several degrees warmer. Upper-level ridge remains the dominate synoptic feature over the eastern Pacific. For Friday, areas covered in Moderate HeatRisk will be primarily reduced to interior locations of the East Bay and South Bay. For these locations, the Heat Advisory continues through Friday evening. Temperatures will continue to moderate region-wide on Saturday. High tide flooding will occur nightly along the Bayshore through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, and about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to bring tides up to 1.8 feet above normal through the weekend. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) A short-wave trough will cut along the outer periphery of the eastern Pacific ridge over the weekend. This will promote further cooling for interior locations into the second half of the weekend. Coastal locations can expect the usual June stratus. While temperatures will return closer to middle-June climatology, the main hazards will be the southerly swell along the coast, plus the coastal flooding associated with the high tides && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Southerly surge with coastal stratus and fog impacted Half Moon Bay and Monterey early this morning with reduced visibilities (IFR-LIFR). The fog and stratus also reached through the Golden Gate to the East Bay, but didn`t impact visibilities. Inland conditions remained VFR. Diurnal surface heating has started to burn off some of the fog allowing for ceilings and visibilities to improve late this morning. As diurnal surface heating continues this afternoon ceilings and visibilities will continue to improve (back to MVFR and VFR) along the coastline. High resolution modeling continues to show coastal stratus and fog (IFR-LIFR) to redevelop tonight and tomorrow morning. Similar conditions from this morning are expected again tomorrow morning. Winds will follow similar patterns to the past 24 hours with speeds increasing to moderately breezy this afternoon, but diminishing around sunset. Vicinity of SFO...High confidence of VFR conditions continuing into the overnight hours. Current NE winds will go NW`rly early this afternoon (~20Z). Wind speeds will increase into the middle teens this afternoon, but subside back below 10 kt around or shortly after sunset. Winds will then go westerly early tomorrow morning before going light and variable by the middle of tomorrow morning. IFR conditions are forecasted for tomorrow morning as radiative cooling may result in some patchy low stratus/fog developing. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Winds will predominately be out of the W/NW at OAK through the period. Winds at SJC will be out of the NW through this evening before going S/SE during the overnight hours. Wind speeds, at both sites, will be in the low to mid teens this afternoon through sunset, otherwise winds will be aob 8 kt. For OAK, morning stratus/fog (IFR) is expected to redevelop tonight and tomorrow morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. At SJC, VFR conditions are anticipated the whole period as morning stratus is not expected to impact the airport. Monterey Bay Terminals...Similar conditions from the past 24 hours are expected for the next 24 hours. Stratus/fog from earlier this morning is starting to burn off with diurnal surface heating allowing for conditions to improve to MVFR-VFR. Stratus/fog (IFR/LIFR) is expected to redevelop and move inland tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and variable (but may tend to be more onshore winds) through the majority of the period. Westerly winds are expected to increase to 7-10 kt this afternoon, then subside around sunset. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1118 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low south southwest swell persist across the coastal waters. The winds will remain fairly consistent through the weekend as the seas subside. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508. Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...Berislavich MARINE...Berislavich Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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