Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding risks increase across the center of the nation today. Meanwhile, ongoing thunderstorms and flash flooding will linger along the Gulf Coast states through the evening. The Great Basin and Intermountain West, warm temperatures and dry fuels with dry lightning may enhance fire weather potential. In addition, across interior Alaska, Red Flag Warning are posted. Read More >
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773 FXUS66 KMTR 201839 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1139 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents continue through the extended forecast - Minor HeatRisk with below normal temperatures through the weekend - Warmer temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk concerns return by midweek across the interior && .UPDATE... Issued at 858 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Rinse and repeat kinda morning around the Bay Area and Central Coast weather wise to start the day. Satellite, cams, soundings, and profilers show another robust marine layer blanketing the region. Automated gages also measured some light accumulating drizzle. All that being said, there are some differences in the details. Recent satellite trends already show some thinning of the stratus deck. The OAK sounding from this morning shows a less dramatic marine inversion. As such, expect an earlier clearing time than yesterday. In fact, some coastal area even have a shot at seeing the sun this afternoon. No update needed as current forecast captures this trend. Please heed the advice in the beaches section below if you`re going to the beach. With more afternoon sunshine expected we may see a few more beachgoers. MM && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 (Today and tonight) The pattern overall will remain similar today as a broad upper level trough sits overhead. Stratus will expand across most areas this morning within a marine layer around 3000 feet deep. Drizzle may develop along the coast this morning as well, resulting in locally slick roadways. The deep marine layer and continued onshore flow will keep temperatures similar to yesterday, with highs along the coast ranging from the upper 50s to around 70. Inland, temperatures will remain below normal with highs reaching the 70s to lower 80s. Clouds should retreat back to the coast this afternoon, giving way to sunny skies in most areas. However, clouds may not fully erode in coastal areas due to onshore flow and orographic effects. Onshore winds will once again be breezy this afternoon and evening with gusts 15-30 mph, strongest in gaps/passes. The marine layer will begin to compress tonight as the upper level trough weakens. Marine stratus will still fill in most valleys tonight, but the extent should be lower overall. Patchy fog will also be possible along the coast and in wind-sheltered valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 (Sunday through Friday) The upper level trough will continue its weakening trend on Sunday and the marine layer will compress further. Decreasing marine influence and warming temperatures aloft will begin a warming trend, especially inland, where many locations will reach the 80s, with a few readings approaching 90 degrees in the warmest spots. The warming trend will continue Monday and Tuesday as a broad ridge builds across the western U.S. Highs will reach the 80s and 90s through the week across the interior. Hot temperatures will be accompanied by the potential for Moderate HeatRisk and increased heat impacts, although overnight cooling limits concerns somewhat. Closer to the coast, confidence in the temperature forecast is lower, but at least some warming is expected. More significant warming along the coast/SF Bay shoreline could develop if a weaker onshore or offshore wind pattern occurs, but confidence in this scenario is low. This potential will continue to be monitored as we head into next week. As mentioned in previous discussions, ensemble guidance continues to indicate moisture rotating north around the upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. By Wednesday and Thursday, there is a low (around 10%) chance that the moisture and accompanying instability makes it far enough west to bring a threat for thunderstorms to the Bay Area and Central Coast. Overall, the chance of this scenario occuring is low, but it could have a large impact. While the current forecast package does not include thunderstorms, this potential will continue to be closely monitored over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Widespread VFR conditions except for HAF where it will remain MVFR no later than 21Z today. Thereafter, VFR at all terminals through the afternoon as onshore moderate winds increase to around 12-15kt. The marine layer will return tonight after 04-06Z Sunday bringing low-end MVFR ceilings (BKN011-015) to most terminals. Low confidence on whether cloud bases will dip below 1000 feet, though the marine layer will be compressed tonight (between 1000-1500 feet) compared to previous nights. The stratus is expected to scatter out by 16-18Z Sunday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with gentle SW breezes through the late morning. Westerly winds increase to moderate breezes by 21Z and continue into evening hours. Medium confidence on timing of stratus tonight as it may arrive some time between 06-08Z. Onshore winds also ease with the arrival of the marine layer. SFO Bridge Approach...Moderate winds around 12-14 kt will remain more W to NW through the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt. These winds ease by 06Z Sunday. MVFR stratus is expected to arrive roughly an hour later than SFO (07Z Sunday) and scatter out at the same time (17Z Sunday). Vicinity of OAK and SJC...VFR as west to northwest winds increase to around 14 kt by 21Z today. Higher chance for SJC to experience some gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. The marine layer will impact both terminals tonight as early as 06Z at OAK and 10Z at SJC with ceilings around 1200-1500 feet. Onshore winds ease overnight and increase by Sunday late morning. SJC is expected to have their MVFR ceilings scatter out as early as 16Z followed by OAK at 18Z. Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore winds increase this afternoon with SNS experiencing moderate breezes around 14 kt and MRY remaining gentle (~10 kt). The coastal stratus deck will impact both terminals by 08Z Sunday, though there is medium confidence on the exact timing as they may roll in as early as 06Z. Ceilings will be lower than last night due to a compressed marine layer. Low confidence on whether they will dip into IFR status, but most likely will be on the borderline. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 858 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Light winds today will increase across the northern outer waters later tonight and persist through early Monday morning, leading to hazardous conditions for small craft. Elsewhere across the inner and outer waters winds will remain light to moderate. Long period southwest swell is likely to continue through the forecast period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 308 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist for the remainder of the weekend, and increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the upcoming work week as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...DM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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