Periods of moderate to heavy lake effect snow will continue through Friday downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario. Several additional inches of accumulating snow are expected. A Pacific storm will bring heavy rain and mountain snow across California, the Southwest and Intermountain West today. Isolated severe thunderstorms and scattered flash flooding is possible across parts of southern California. Read More >
| ZOA CWSU Discussion | KSFO TAF TDA | |
| AWAITING CWSU INPUT | TAF TDA KSFO/KSQL METAR METARArea PIREPs PIREP |
|
| Satellite | Webcams, Ceiling≤030 Prob | |
|
Webcams
|
||
| SIERRA 03 Hour Forecast | SIERRA 12 Hour Forecast | SIGMETs |
| TANGO 03 Hour Forecast | TANGO 12 Hour Forecast | |
| ZULU 03 Hour Forecast | ZULU 12 Hour Forecast | |
| Area Forecast Discussion | Forecast Maps |
|
705 FXUS66 KMTR 011246 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 446 AM PST Thu Jan 1 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PST Thu Jan 1 2026 - High astronomical tides combined with storm surge will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding around high tide through Sunday - Daily rain likely through early next week - Strong southerly winds expected Friday night && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PST Thu Jan 1 2026 (Today and tonight) Light rain continues across the Bay Area as the new year begins. While the total rainfall over the last 24 hours has been less than 1", the troposphere has become totally saturated. The PW was measured at 1.38" on the 00Z sounding. That`s near the daily max, and in the top 0.3% of December soundings. The low level dry layer mentioned yesterday has been eliminated. In fact, the first dry layer is in the stratosphere. Despite the anonymously high moisture, rain rates were held in check by a lack of lift. We haven`t had a front move through yet to wring out the sponge. That will change this morning as an occluded front moves across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will increase the rain intensity, and brings a slight to moderate chance of thunderstorms. High resolution models show the best chance over the Central Coast and South Bay around 4-7 AM. After the front moves through showers will become more scattered and the clouds will lift and lighten. There is a second round of showers possible in the afternoon as the instability rises with warmer surface temperatures under the new cold air mass. A NAM point sounding at Salinas valid at 11 AM shows some instability (41 J/kg surface CAPE), winds backing with height(16kt 0-1km shear), and good low level moisture (91% LowRH). One limiting factor is the high freezing level (7,500+ ft). Most of the instability is in the warmer air below this level. This will limit the amount of ice in the clouds necessary for static electricity build up, significantly hurting the chances for thunderstorms to form after the front passes. The other issues is drier air behind the front. Most likely we will get a break after the morning push of stronger rain, with only isolated to scattered showers expected for the rest of the day and into Friday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PST Thu Jan 1 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) The mostly dry break now looks like it will continue through the majority of the day Friday before the main event of the week arrives Friday night. A strong cold front will quickly approach the coast, with southerly winds increasing to a strong breeze. These winds will pump a new round of tropical moisture, this time from the SW. With stronger winds and a lifting mechanism from FROPA, strong showers and thunderstorms are possible into Saturday morning. With the stronger forcing, these storms also have a marginal chance of hitting severe criteria. Even if storms don`t produce damaging winds, the synoptic flow will likely bring some wind impacts across the cwa. Gusts should reach 40-50 mph along the coast and in higher terrain. While not quite as strong as last week, some tree damage and power outages are expected. Southerly winds also produce storm surge thanks to the Ekman Transport. This surge will combine with the ongoing king tides to bring exceptionally high tides on Saturday morning, in particular. As the cold front passes, the 500 mb temperature will drop from around -16C to -23C. This will cause lapse rate to steepen, and could support deeper convection in the post frontal environment on Saturday. A reinforcing front is due on Sunday, bringing yet another round of heavier rain, but less damaging winds. While the rain intensity should start to lighten up next week, the pattern remains unsettled through the 8th or 9th. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM PST Thu Jan 1 2026 Light to moderate winds are expected through the TAF period. Expect mostly light to showers through the morning, with chances reducing int the late morning and early afternoon. Winds will stay southeasterly to southerly through the day for most sites. Light spotty showers return in evening and into the night for the more northern TAF sites before exiting into early Friday. CIGS will range from IFR-levels in some of the interior valleys to VFR heights in the more southern sites. Nearly widespread VFR returns into early Friday as the system exits. Vicinity of SFO...Showers continue to move through the area, causing slight reductions in visibilities with IFR/MVFR level CIGs. Expect mostly light to moderate easterly winds through the morning before winds become more southerly and breezy into the afternoon as CIGs scatter. Showers exit in the mid afternoon, but another batch of slight chances for scattered light rain arrives in the late evening but exit again into the late night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate showers exit into the mid morning, with lingering light showers lasting into the afternoon. Expect mostly mid-level clouds through the TAF period. Winds stay light to moderate through the TAF period and range from southerly to southeasterly. Shower chances reduce and exit into the afternoon as cloud cover scatters. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 445 AM PST Thu Jan 1 2026 Breezy and showery conditions linger across the waters. Expect some reductions in winds into the night, but southerly winds rebuild into Friday and increase to gale force across most of the waters. These winds look to last through much of the weekend. Expect light to moderate rainfall to persist through the weekend, with a slight chance of thunderstorms early Thursday and again Friday into Saturday. Rain chances and breezy winds will continue into the beginning of the next work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 859 AM PST Wed Dec 31 2025 Perigean spring tides (King Tides) will impact the region through Sunday. This is due to the combination of the full moon on 1/3, lunar perigee on 1/1, and perihelion on 1/3. In other words all three planetary bodies are lined up and close to each other. In addition to the high astronomical tide, the incoming low pressure system will bring strong southerly winds, generating some storm surge. The combination of these factors will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide through Sunday. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 2.0 ft above normal at 8:41 AM Thursday, 2.2 ft above normal at 9:34 AM Friday, 2.2 ft above normal at 10:26 AM Saturday, and 1.8 ft above normal at 11:18 AM Sunday. These predictions include up to 1 foot of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-506- 508-509-529-530. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006- 502>505-509-512-515>518-528>530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
|
| Yesterday | ⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM | Today | |
| 24-Hour Temp Change | 24-Hour RH Change | ||
⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM
 |
|
Additional Links
National Airspace System Status
Other Webcams:
Alert California San Bruno Mountain
Alert California Sutro Tower 2
Alert California Coll of San Mateo Bldg36
Follow us on X
ZOA RSS Feed