A round of severe thunderstorms are forecast across areas of the Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight; The threat for flash flooding will also accompany these storms. The rainfall for the Great Lakes region could prolong the ongoing flooding. Where the rain is needed, the Southern High Plains, critical fire weather concerns through today. Read More >
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342 FXUS66 KMTR 172349 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 449 PM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1148 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Seasonably warm temperatures expected through the weekend - Cooler temperatures and beneficial rain for the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1148 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 (This afternoon through Saturday) Gusty offshore winds prevail across the Vaca Range, Mayacamas Range, and higher elevations of the East Bay Hills (such as Mt. Diablo). However, as the day progresses, wind speeds will gradually diminish as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific. Thus, a gradual warming trend will continue today with temperatures reaching the mid 60s to low 70s across the interior (potentially mid 70s in the warmest interior locations). Overnight, temperatures will be chilly and lower into the 40s across most of the lower elevations and near 50 degrees F closer to the coast. However, these temperatures are near seasonal averages. High clouds are forecast to stream in from the west during the overnight hours. These high clouds will persist into Saturday when we are forecasting the warmest temperatures of the weekend to occur. This is as the mid/upper level short wave ridge axis will become positioned over much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. There is a greater than 50% probability for San Jose, Gilroy, Hollister, and King City to exceed 80 degrees F on Saturday afternoon (but near 0% of exceeding 85 degrees F). Elsewhere, we are expecting mid-to- upper 60s on northwest facing coastal locations and low-to-upper 70s across the rest of the region. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1148 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) A gradual cooling trend will begin on Sunday as a mid/upper level low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the Pacific Northwest and northern California coast. This will bring unsettled weather to much of the region Monday and Tuesday with temperatures dropping to below seasonal averages. Rain chances begin across the North Bay late Sunday, yet rainfall amounts will generally be light (if any occurs). There are still differences in the deterministic models with the ECMWF bringing rain to the North Bay late Sunday while the GFS does not bring widespread precipitation in until Monday afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will also increase ahead of and along the frontal boundary, yet how strong they will be remains in question. Tuesday will be when the Bay Area and Central Coast will have the greatest potential for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. We will have a better handle on the evolution of this system once we get in the range of the high resolution and convection-allowing models. Post-frontal rain showers look to linger into Wednesday. There still is no clear signal of what the pattern looks like heading into late next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 449 PM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 VFR through the TAF period. HREF shows some potential for low level clouds to impact HAF overnight but confidence was too low to include in TAF. Gusty onshore winds continue through this evening before diminishing overnight and becoming variable. Breezy onshore winds return again tomorrow afternoon with most sites seeing winds between 10-15 knots. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Gusty onshore winds continue through this evening before diminishing and becoming variable overnight. Winds look to restrengthen around 21Z and continue through the late evening. Winds may reduce as early as 05/06Z tomorrow night but confidence was too low to include in current TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Breezy onshore winds continue through this evening before diminishing overnight. There is some potential for moderate SE winds at SNS early tomorrow morning before winds shift NW and strengthen during the afternoon/evening for both MRY and SNS. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM PDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Fresh northwest winds will continue to decrease through Saturday, allowing seas to subside as well. On Sunday winds will shift to the south ahead of a Pacific low pressure system that will bring rain to the area beginning early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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