Dangerous, prolonged heat is ongoing in the Mid-South to Mid-Mississippi Valley and heat expands into the Northeast for a brief period today. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding due to heavy rains are forecast from northeast Kansas to much of Indiana. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of New England, northern Mid-Atlantic, and North Dakota. Read More >
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528 FXUS66 KMTR 260856 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 156 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 153 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Below to near seasonal normal temperatures through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 153 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 (Today and tonight) The July 26th 00Z sounding revealed an 850 millibar temperature of 17.15 degrees Celsius, just above the 25th percentile of 17.1 degrees Celsius for this date and time. San Jose (SJCthr) tied its daily (July 25th) low maximum temperature record of 73 degrees Fahrenheit set in 1924. Napa State Hospital (NSHC1) is forecast to tie its daily (July 26th) low maximum temperature record of 70 degrees set in 1935. Needless to say widespread below normal temperatures, a relatively deep marine layer, and drizzle will continue today. The upper-level trough that has been the dictator of our recent weather brings a low probability (5%) high-impact scenario of elevated convection. The essential ingredients for thunderstorms of lift, instability, and moisture are there, but they are not impressive. With very little change to the pattern, it is expected that convection will continue to present itself as it has the previous two days, remaining confined to the north and east of our region. If a thunderstorm were to develop, the primary hazards will be dependent on if they are wet (rainfall greater than or equal to 0.10 inch) or dry (rainfall less than 0.10 inch). Wet thunderstorm hazards will be locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflows while dry thunderstorm hazards will be new fire starts and gusty outflows. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 153 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 (Sunday through Friday) Global ensemble clusters are in agreement of heights rising through Tuesday as broad high pressure expands westward and a longwave ridge is able to form over the Intermountain West. This will result in a slight warming trend with temperatures returning to near normal for valleys and terrain above the marine layer. While it is likely that heights will begin to fall Wednesday as an embedded shortwave from the upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska traverses the region, sensible weather will fluctuate very little through Friday with the coast remaining cool, the interior remaining mild, and onshore flow prevailing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 MVFR-IFR stratus developing from the coast into the Bay Area and Central Coast, continuing to redevelop inland through the night. Stratus retreats to the immediate coast through Saturday morning with a low to medium probability that stratus lingers through the Golden Gate and impacts SFO and OAK through the day. Breezy onshore flow continues to diminish through the next few hours and returns Saturday afternoon and evening. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-IFR stratus through Saturday, with low confidence in the clearing time and a distinct possibility that the edge of the stratus will lie just to the north of the terminal. Probabilities that stratus lingers through Saturday hover around 20- 35% at this time. Stratus returns to the terminal late Saturday afternoon or evening. Light west breezes continue through the night before breezy flow resumes Saturday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR ceilings through the night with some LIFR possible at the coast. Stratus clears through Saturday afternoon at SNS, with moderate confidence for clearing at MRY sometime in the afternoon, before the stratus returns early in the evening. Light winds continue overnight, before onshore winds return Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 856 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Moderate northwest breezes and moderate seas prevail through Tuesday. Low clouds with drizzle are expected through Saturday morning. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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