More than 200 record or near record maximum temperatures are forecast across the southern half of the U.S. through the end of this week before additional record temperatures center back over the Southwest U.S. into the Rockies this weekend. Widespread record breaking warmth, low humidity, and gusty winds will produce critical fire weather today in the central Rockies to Plains. Read More >
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888 FXUS66 KMTR 251159 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 459 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 - Slightly above normal temperatures persist into the weekend - Increasing potential for light rain returning early to mid next week - Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains Thursday into Friday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 (Tonight through Thursday) Satellite shows some high level clouds moving over the North Bay with stratus building in across the coastal waters. An upper level trough will push through southern California today which, in combination with a weak cold frontal passage this afternoon, will deepen our marine layer to around 750-1000 ft. There is some potential for stratus to develop along our coast tonight but high resolution guidance suggests the stratus bank will be relatively progressive with cloud cover dissipating almost as quickly as it develops. Temperatures remain cool overnight with lows in the 40s to 50s. Slightly cooler high temperatures are expected today as a weak surface cold front moves through the Bay Area. This will keep interior temperatures in the 70s and coastal temperatures in the 60s. The interior Central Coast continues to be on the warmer side with high temperatures in the low 80s. It is expected to be a dry cold frontal passage with no potential for precipitation across the region. However, it will bring locally gustier onshore winds across the marine environment, the coastline, and across the higher elevations. Winds stay below Wind Advisory criteria but will be between 20-30 mph along the coast and 25-35 mph across the higher elevations. The strongest winds largely remain over the coastal waters where gale force winds are expected. If you are looking to go out on the ocean this week be aware that winds, particularly across the outer waters, will make conditions hazardous for small boats. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Heading into Thursday, upper level ridging redevelops across the West Coast. At the surface high pressure builds in over the Pacific Northwest and gradually spreads into the Intermountain West. The SFO- WMC pressure gradient shifts from positive (onshore winds) to negative (offshore winds) as this occurs Wednesday night into Thursday. The SFO-WMC gradient is forecast to reach -10 to -11 mb on Thursday which correlates to moderate offshore winds. Forecast wind gusts are expected to peak between 30 to 40 mph. Wind gusts will be strongest strongest over the higher elevations with winds peaking along the ridgelines of the North Bay Interior Mountains. Offshore winds bring drier and warmer conditions so expect RH values to drop across the higher terrain on Thursday. Larger fuels are drying but, for now, they remain decently moist from rain over the past few months. Smaller fine fuels (grass) are drying at a faster rate due to the recent abnormally hot weather. The overall fire risk remains low at this time but remember to exercise caution given the drying of fine fuels. High temperatures on Thursday warm by a few degrees but largely stay in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior and 60s along the coast. Temperatures Friday into the weekend will look fairly similar to Thursday but may fluctuate slightly as we get closer in time. Sunday into Monday a deep upper level trough will reach the West Coast and start to push inland. Cluster guidance maintains some uncertainty as to when this trough will arrive. All clusters show the trough just offshore on Monday and Tuesday with it pushing inland closer to Wednesday/Thursday. Rain chances increase starting Tuesday with light rain to return across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is too far out to talk rainfall totals but ensembles are generally supporting between 0.5" to 1.0" of rain next week. Temperatures are also expected to cool down Monday and Tuesday with highs dropping into the 60s to 70s on Monday and widespread 50s to 60s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 459 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ with a cool frontal boundary continue to approach the coastline, satellite imagery shows it had reached Point Reyes. Surface high pressure is building over the eastern Pacific which will increase northwesterly winds over the coastal waters (with some land overlap) today, tonight and Thursday in response to ACV-SFO gradient strengthening to 8 mb. UKI-STS will strengthen to 2 mb. High resolution rapid refresh shows stratus and fog mixing out /VFR/ tonight and Thursday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 10 knots increasing to 15 to near 30 knots by late morning and afternoon. West wind tonight decreasing to around 10 knots or less by Thursday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR, though for a few hours later in the morning high resolution models show stratus near KMRY. Light and variable winds becoming west to northwest 10 to 20 knots today. Winds decreasing to 10 knots or less tonight and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Expect widespread hazardous conditions due to strong to near gale northerly breezes. Gale force gusts will occur across the inner waters and outer waters with bays experiencing conditions hazardous to small craft. Seas will build to become rough to very rough as a result. Conditions will slowly improve Friday and into the weekend with moderate northerly breezes and moderate seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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