Severe weather and flooding threats will continue for portions of the central U.S. Rounds of heavy rainfall may cause impactful flash flooding in parts of southern Kansas and Missouri. Hot and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns for the Intermountain West, and dry thunderstorms may spark additional wildfires. Dangerous heat will build across the southern U.S. Friday into the weekend. Read More >
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007 FXUS66 KMTR 251111 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 411 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 - Continued mild and dry for Thursday with winds increasing through the day - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a deeper marine layer for Friday and Saturday - Gusty onshore winds continue to increase, peaking Friday and Saturday, with mountain passes gusting as high as 50-60 mph and marine concerns through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 (This morning through Friday night) The marine layer continues to slowly compress into this morning to around 800-1200ft, with slightly less stratus inundation expected. Patchy fog again is possible along the coastal terrain. Upper-level troughing will begin to push in today, with heights slowly falling. Temperatures overall will be fairly similar to Wednesday, maybe 1 to 3 degrees cooler due to the decreasing heights. A more significant cooldown will arrive Friday as heights continue to fall with the approaching low to the north. While the low stratus will dissipate, an increase in mid to high level clouds is expected through the end of the workweek as moisture increase with the upper-level trough deepening over the West Coast as a large upper-level low sweeps down the Canadian coastline. Gusty onshore winds could begin as early as this afternoon, increasing through the night. A frontal passage Friday could bring about 40-50+ mph winds for mountain passes and wind-prone spots, and 30-35 mph winds for the coastal waters. Low and mid-level moisture will surge in Friday as well, with a deepening marine layer and 50%+ min RH for every location except the very far interior spots. As a result, fire weather concerns will be limited with excellent overnight recovery into Saturday morning. Spotty drizzle and light rain are possible, although, little to no rain accumulation expected. The long-period southerly swell impacting the Pacific Coast beaches continues to slowly subside. While the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents has decreased, they could still occur...never turn your back to the ocean. The southerly swell is expected to subside through the end of work week before increasing again by the weekend. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) The cooler pattern with gusty onshore winds continue into the weekend, with ample moisture and deep marine layer limiting heating. Saturday will be the coolest day of the period and highs will be about 2 to 4 degrees cooler than Friday, with 50s near the coast and 60s to low 70s further inland. Again, spotty drizzle and rain is possible. While troughing pattern is looking to linger longer over the western US, a slight warming trend is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into next week as the the upper low departs and heights increase slowly. Ensemble members continue to trend more in favor with a troughing pattern prevailing into early week which would support a minimal to slow warming trend compared to the cooler weekend. Lingering breezy winds on Sunday will also trend down into next week as the gradient relaxes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 410 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Extensive MVFR-IFR stratus has developed across the region, with patches of LIFR stratus near STS. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coast through the morning, with moderate onshore breezes gusting to 20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus will redevelop across the Bay Area and Central Coast valleys late tonight into Friday morning, while the North Bay valleys remain VFR as locally downsloping flow precludes the development of stratus. Beyond the TAF period, a passing trough should lead to delayed clearing times Friday morning and gustier winds Friday into Saturday. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-IFR stratus persists into the late morning hours with strong west-northwest winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt developing this afternoon and evening. Moderate confidence in the timing of the incoming stratus tonight, but ceilings should develop by the early morning hours on Friday and not clear out through the remainder of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Vicinity of OAK and SJC... MVFR-IFR stratus continues at the terminals into the late morning hours. Moderate to fresh northwest winds will develop at the terminals this afternoon and evening, and remain breezy overnight. Stratus should develop at both terminals late tonight into early Friday morning, in SJC`s case this will fall near or slightly after the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Beyond the TAF period, OAK might not clear out at all on Friday as a passing trough and gustier winds promote stratus flow through the Golden Gate. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR stratus persists at the terminals through the late morning hours when stratus retreats to the immediate coast. Moderate northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 kt will develop in the afternoon and evening, with stratus decks returning to the terminals early tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 410 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will build through the day through the weekend. Occasional gale-force gusts will develop along the coastal waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts will develop tonight and continue through at least early Friday before resuming over the weekend. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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