Potential life threatening flash flooding across the northern Gulf Coast states as the remnants of Arthur track across the area. Remember, turn around - don't drown. In addition, severe thunderstorms with tornadoes are possible with the circulation of this storm. The threat for more severe thunderstorms will occur across portions of the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian's. Read More >
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709 FXUS66 KMTR 181209 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 509 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with temperatures decreasing to below normal. - Warming temperatures early next week with Moderate HeatRisk concerns by midweek in interior locations. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery early this morning indicates low clouds expanding within a 1500-2000 ft deep marine layer, which is slightly deeper than the past couple of days. The stratus will follow a typical pattern today, continuing to expand in coverage early this morning and then decreasing after sunrise before retreating back to near the coast during the afternoon. Patchy drizzle will also develop along the coast this morning. The flow will remain onshore today and increase slightly from yesterday. Winds will be breezy this afternoon and evening, especially near SF Bay and Monterey Bay as well as adjacent valleys where gusts should locally reach 20-30 mph. The marine layer and onshore winds will keep temperatures similar or a degree or two cooler near the coast today, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, generally slightly below normal. An approaching trough will further reduce temperatures inland, decreasing around 5 degrees on average from Wednesday. This will place highs in the 70s and 80s, or around 5-10 degrees below normal in most areas, resulting in Minor HeatRisk. Tonight, expect stratus to fill back in within the marine layer with patchy drizzle redeveloping along the coast. Additionally, north and east of our area, there will be enough moisture and instability ahead of the trough for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Weak elevated instability above the stable marine layer will extend just far enough south into northern Sonoma and Napa counties for a 5% chance of showers and thunderstorms in these areas. Chances for showers/storms will be even lower further to the south. The main takeaway is that while the potential for shower/storm development is very low, we cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across northern areas. The long-period southerly swell will continue to bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through late Friday night. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) The trough off the coast will begin to move onshore on Friday, then linger over the area into the weekend. Weak elevated instability across the north will keep a 5% chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern Napa and Sonoma counties on Friday. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend lower, especially inland, on Friday as the marine layer deepens further and cooler air arrives with the trough. Highs near the coast should remain in the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, and inland should decrease another 5 degrees or so. Temperatures in most areas will remain similar on Saturday, but begin to increase inland by Sunday as the trough weakens. Expect stratus each night/morning with patchy coastal drizzle. Ensembles remain in agreement that a ridge will build across the West early next week. This will bring a warming trend, especially inland, with some interior locations reaching the 90s once again and Moderate HeatRisk concerns by midweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The marine layer has deepened to around 2000ft and spread into all terminals, with intermittent MVFR CIGs at SJC and LVK. Stratus will begin to erode from interior sites by 15-16z, closer to 18-20z for coastal sites. Southwesterly wind gusts will develop beginning around 20z for nearly all sites, with gusts around 25kts at times. Highest confidence for >25kts SFO and APC. Weaker winds and a resurgence of marine layer stratus expected again tonight generally after sunset, with similar depth and inland spread as observed this morning. Confidence for a CIG for at least an hour at LVK and SJC Friday morning are around 65-75%, with the best chances being after 10z Fri. Vicinity of SFO...Clouds struggled to make it into the terminal overnight, and intermittent MVFR CIGs will be possible through 16-17z when clouds retreat back towards the coastline and VFR sets in. Gusty onshore winds develop around 20z, with gusts around 22-25kt possible through the afternoon and evening. Low clouds move back inland likely after 07z, with around a 70% chance of MVFR CIGs at SFO by 09z. Bases expected to be right around 1500ft MSL, although could be a bit higher. SFO Bridge Approach...Marine stratus has finally push in, with some clearing just south of SFO. Clouds are expected to erode by 18-19z, with VFR prevailing thereafter. Afternoon and evening west-southwest gusts will be similar to that of SFO, with weaker after 06z Fri. Stratus will filter back in around the same time as SFO, 07-09z. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Intermittent MVFR CIGs at SJC with more persistent stratus at OAK. Clouds will clear from south to north in the bay this morning, generally beginning around 16z, with some lingering stratus in the vicinity of OAK through 21z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail for the afternoon and evening. Gusty west to northwest winds develop after 21z for both locations, weakening by 06z. Low clouds move back into OAK around the same time with bases around 1500ft MSL. Confidence in an MVFR CIG at SJC is around 70% for Friday morning, although timing looks to be significantly later, after 10z, with periods of scattering out possible. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR with bases around 1200-1500ft MSL currently, expecting to clear around 19-21z. Northwesterly gusts at SNS after 20z may prevent low stratus from clearing completely (40% chance), with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible through the afternoon. Either way, FEW-SCT stratus will linger near both terminals likely into the evening. As low clouds push back inland after 02z Fri, models keep clouds out of MRY for much of the night. However, seeing how sufficiently it has filled in the past few nights and given the deepening marine layer, have added MVFR CIGs for MRY beginning 04z Fri with moderate confidence. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 426 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Winds will increase this afternoon and early evening and once again on Friday afternoon and early evening leading to hazardous conditions for small crafts in the San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay, Suisun Bay and Monterey Bay. Expect moderate chop along with the increasing afternoon winds each day. Southwesterly swell with light to moderate seas will continue into the weekend, with moderate west to southwest winds across the outer waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 156 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Saturday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through late Friday night. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ006-506-508. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Zuber MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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