A late season winter storm will produce a combination of heavy snow and disruptive ice starting this evening in the Northern Plains and moving into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by tonight continuing through Thursday. Severe thunderstorms will likely produce severe wind gusts, large hail, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall across the southern and central Plains today. Read More >
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428 FXUS66 KMTR 011916 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1216 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2026 - Unsettled weather today and tonight with cool, gusty, and rainy conditions - Warming and drying trend kicks off Thursday with well above normal temperatures and moderate offshore flow into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1214 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2026 (This evening through Thursday) A gale force low pressure system off the coast of the Washington/Canada border and its attendant cold front will be our weather maker the next 24 hours. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly winds will increase with gusts of 20-30 mph and up to 40 mph in the higher terrain. Isolated pre-frontal rain showers are possible with the best chances for rain holding off until later this afternoon, slowly spreading from north to south with the cold front. So as far as a wet commute home goes, that will likely remain confined to the North Bay with the slow progression of the cold front. That means most of the rainfall south of the Golden Gate Bridge will fall overnight. Rainfall totals on the order of 0.10"- 0.25" are expected with locally higher totals in the higher terrain of the North Bay with the help of orographic lift and locally lower totals in the Interior Central Coast. Even with the over performance of yesterday`s rainfall, no adverse impacts are expected with the exception of slick roadways. It is possible that today`s rainfall over performs as well due to the recency bias of the well above normal temperatures and dry spell that has occurred over the last four weeks. This is actually a best case scenario for both water storage and fire weather concerns. Similar to yesterday, the best chances for thunderstorms will remain off to our north and east with our region being instability limited. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1214 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) The warming and drying trend will commence right behind the cold front as surface high pressure noses in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will veer winds to become northwesterly with the tightened surface pressure gradient yielding strong winds in exposed areas like the higher terrain and over the waters. Very dry air will get funneled in behind the cold front with PWAT values forecast to be between the daily minimum (0.18 inches) and tenth percentile (0.34 inches) for 12Z tomorrow. ECMWF and GFS ensembles are in agreement that the SFO-WMC pressure gradient will change from positive (onshore) to negative (offshore) tomorrow night, but that`s about where the agreement ends. The uncertainty lies in how the aforementioned high builds into the Intermountain West and how strong it gets. The ECMWF deterministic and ensemble continues to offer a stronger solution than its GFS counterparts. Both models and their means show a relative minimum occurring at 5 AM Friday with the ECMWF ensemble mean at -9.26 mb and the GEFS ensemble mean at -8.03 mb. 24 hours later at 5 AM Saturday, the ECMWF ensemble mean bottoms out at -9.91 mb while the GEFS ensemble mean is well on its way to relaxing at -5.50 mb. Nonetheless, confidence is high that a moderate offshore flow event will transpire Thursday night with the gradient beginning to weaken by Sunday morning and returning to positive by Monday. This will equate to gusts of 40 to 50 mph in the North Bay Interior Mountains with gusts of 30 to 40 mph in the East Bay Hills, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains. Well above normal temperatures are expected over the weekend with Saturday being the warmest day of the week. Chances for rain may return as early as Tuesday with the help of an upper-level trough. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 AM PDT Wed Apr 1 2026 A mix bag of IFR to VFR conditions this morning! Fairly high confidence for these conditions to persist through much of the TAF period. Pre-frontal rain showers will persist at times throughout the afternoon and then clear out in wake of the overnight/early morning (Thursday) frontal passage. West-southwest winds will increase throughout the afternoon before becoming northwesterly in wake of the frontal passage as ceilings begin to lift and clear out early Thursday morning. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR to VFR conditions through early Thursday morning with an increase in west-southwest winds head of an approaching frontal boundary. Also, VCSH through 21Z today and -SHRA afterwards to account for a greater probability of seeing rain showers. Greater probability of VFR conditions to return around or after 08Z Thursday in wake of the frontal passage. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Generally expecting VFR conditions through the day with an increase in west-southwest winds this afternoon. MVFR conditions are forecast to return early Thursday morning around 07Z-09Z and then clearing in wake of the frontal passage. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1046 AM PDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Moderate southwesterly breezes ahead of the cold front this morning will increase and veer to become fresh and northwesterly tonight. The cold front will bring light rain this afternoon into tonight. Widespread hazardous conditions arrive Thursday and continue into Friday with strong northerly breezes and rough seas. Northerly breezes diminish and seas abate by this weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...RGass MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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