Dangerous, record-breaking heat will continue across most of the central and eastern U.S this week. Heat indices will exceed 100 degrees. Severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the southern Appalachians Thursday, with the primary threat large to very large hail. Critical fire weather to continue in the Four Corners Region Read More >
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811 FXUS66 KMTR 021049 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 349 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 - Seasonally cool and breezy conditions will continue through Thursday, with marine layer likely to stay in place for many coastal communities south of Pacifica. - Pleasant conditions through the holiday weekend, with some areas seeing a warming trend Friday onward. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Thursday is geared to be another day under the influence of the deep upper trough over the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern has been in place for quite some time now, which has largely kept the marine layer over coastal areas and mostly clear skies inland. Thus, we can expect a repeat of this weather through the day on Thursday, with temperatures along the coast remaining in the 60s and inland locations increasing into the 70s and 80s. As we have seen over the Monterey Bay area on Wednesday, some breaks in the clouds can be expected once again through the afternoon hours. Later in the day and into the overnight period, zonal flow starts to increase over the region and we start to see gradual height rises over the area. We are not expecting much of an influence on the weather overnight, with the marine layer becoming widespread again with lows in the low-mid 50s. Friday onward, the persistent longwave pattern that dominated the area will break down. Zonal flow will take over, with weak ridging developing over the area. Increasing 500 hPa heights will result, where we will start to see a gradual warming, especially for inland areas. Some locations may see a 2-4 degree increase compared to Thursday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Guidance favors a weaker marine layer Saturday with weak ridging and height increases, which should allow for mostly clear skies through the afternoon for some. Temperatures for communities along the coast will largely remain in the mid 60s to near 70, with the more notable warming noted for inland areas where it will be mostly clear. This will be especially true for inland areas south and east of the Monterey Bay area where temperatures in the mid- upper 80s will be possible. Some guidance hints at the potential for 90 degree temperatures, largely for areas in southern Monterey and San Benito Counties. HeatRisk along the coastal communities will remain Low (green), with inland areas at Minor (yellow). CPC continues to highlight the area under favorability for above normal temperatures through next week, bringing more summer-like weather to the area. The middle of next week and beyond is when we are starting to see isolated areas of Moderate (orange) HeatRisk, largely in parts of southwestern Monterey County. Although, confidence on this is lower at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 349 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is developing with onshore winds continuing. Stratus will mix out by late morning and early afternoon otherwise VFR prevails today. Coastal stratus redevelops tonight and Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Southwest to west wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...San Jose Airport VFR. Southeast wind 12 to 19 knots until 18z today, diminishing to light southeast wind then becoming northwest near 10 knots in the afternoon, shifting to southeast 10 knots late tonight and Friday morning. Oakland Airport stratus /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR by late morning. Southwest to west wind 5 to 12 knots. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR/ mixes out to VFR by late morning and/or afternoon. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ redevelops and moves inland tonight and Friday morning. KMRY light southeast wind becoming west and increasing 14 to 21 knots in the afternoon then decreasing to less than 10 knots tonight. KSNS northwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots with afternoon gusts to 20 knots. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 340 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Moderate to strong northwest breezes will continue through the weekend with the strongest winds in the north. Seas will abate to become moderate to rough today into Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM....Gunkel AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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