Flash flooding threatens areas from the Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas as storms repeat along a stalled front. Monsoonal storms may trigger flooding in the Southwest. Dangerous heat expands across the Desert Southwest, Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and Southern Tier. Critical fire weather for interior Pacific Northwest. Cooler, drier air brings brief relief to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Read More >
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704 FXUS66 KMTR 251138 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 438 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026 - Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through the weekend - Temperatures near seasonal averages throughout early next week - Gradual warming by the end of next week with increasing Moderate HeatRisk potential across the interior && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1222 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026 (Today and tonight) Persistence forecast with very little change in ambient weather conditions from 24hrs ago and no guidance indicating that the remainder of tonight and tomorrow will unfold much different than what we saw today. Dry air just above the marine layer continues to disrupt the inland intrusion we normally see this time of year, but not prevent it entirely, as persistent troughing over the EPAC and the western flank of high pressure centered over the Four Corners region continue to intersect over the Bay Area and Central Coast. The most impactful concern is the Beach Hazards Statement that goes into effect later this morning. Long period southerly swell from distant Fausto will make for dangerous sneaker waves and riptides. Never turn your back on the ocean and swim near lifeguards this weekend. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1222 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Normal temperatures for this time of year will continue through the weekend into the first half of next week, with very little change day-to-day through the middle of the week. Interior temperatures begin to rise a little more by the second half of the week as the area of high pressure expands westward and Fausto helps to push the persistent trough north and we begin to see H50 height rises over the EPAC. We begin to see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior by the end of the week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Surprise! All terminals are VFR this morning. Honestly we did not expect that to happen, so what did we miss? Buoy observations reveal that the dew point has dropped below the sea surface temperature. That makes it very hard to saturation to occur as the air temp struggles to get any colder than the ocean. So dry air has mixed in to the boundary layer, lowering the dew point and clearing out the clouds. The 12Z weather balloon found a 900 ft unsaturated marine layer with much warmer and drier air aloft. It looks like this dry air will be with us all day, so enjoy the clear skies, aviators! Vicinity of SFO...It`s unusual to see the cloud coverage decrease at this hour, but that`s been the trend for the last several hours as the dry air infiltrates the shallow marine layer. Winds will remain steady all day from the typical westerly direction. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...There is a small patch of stratus north of SNS, but it hasn`t shown much ambition. VFR conditions will likely prevail through the day with the standard diurnally driven wind regime at both MRY and SNS. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 425 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026 A fresh NW breeze will continue for several days before increasing to a strong by the middle of next week. Long period southerly swell from a pair of distant tropical cyclones will continue through at least the middle of next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 830 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Hurricane Fausto in the tropical Eastern Pacific will generate a long period southwesterly swell which is forecast to reach the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast this weekend. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). Sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. This can potentially catch beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the cold water; hence the name "sneaker". Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Saturday morning through Tuesday afternoon for all beaches along the Pacific Coast. RGass && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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