Widespread life-threatening flash and urban flooding will continue to pose a significant threat to life and property in south-central Texas. Catastrophic fiver flooding, with rapid rises on small streams, arroyos, and typically dry washes, is expected. Monsoonal showers persist across the Great Basin and Southwest with greatest flash flooding in southern Arizona. Read More >
| ZOA CWSU Discussion | KSFO TAF TDA | |
| AWAITING CWSU INPUT | TAF TDA KSFO/KSQL METAR METARArea PIREPs PIREP |
|
| Satellite | Webcams, Ceiling≤030 Prob | |
|
Webcams
|
||
| SIERRA 03 Hour Forecast | SIERRA 12 Hour Forecast | SIGMETs |
| TANGO 03 Hour Forecast | TANGO 12 Hour Forecast | |
| ZULU 03 Hour Forecast | ZULU 12 Hour Forecast | |
| Area Forecast Discussion | Forecast Maps |
|
358 FXUS66 KMTR 161745 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1045 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday - Breezy onshore winds through Friday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1123 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Fortunately our weather balloons have returned to service with the 00Z launch, so let`s look at some of the data. The 850 mb temperature is 22.75 C, which is between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of year. That explains why it`s been warm recently. The temperatures Wednesday weren`t as hot as Tuesday, but still around 5- 10 degrees above normal. The PW has dropped to 0.65", or between the 25th and 50th percentile. So the monsoon moisture from last weekend is totally gone. The skies are still clear as the marine layer struggles to reform. Temperatures will be another 5-10 degrees cooler on Thursday, broadly similar to seasonal normal, as the 850 mb temperature drops a bit and onshore winds increase to bring cooler marine air advection. While temperatures are coming down, afternoon winds will be moderate to strong along the coast and in the mountains again today, bringing another round of elevated fire weather conditions. It`s unclear if marine layer clouds will form this morning. The SFO- SAC gradient is +4.0 mb, so the onshore flow is good, but there are no low clouds offshore at the moment. That means the stratus will have to form overhead, rather than advect in from the ocean like normal. I`ll put it at a 25% chance for coastal stratus by sunrise, and even less chance of pushing inland. If the clouds do form, they will clear by late morning. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1123 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) It looks much more likely that the marine layer clouds will return Friday morning thanks to sustained onshore winds and a slowly approaching trough off the coast. The marine layer depth will likely grow to around 1,000 feet by then, enough for the morning stratus to reach into the valleys a bit. In addition to the clouds, the marine layer will keep coastal areas much cooler than they have been this week, and help regulate fire weather concerns. Once we get back into this cooler, marine layer pattern it looks like it`s here to stay for a while. Tropical Storm Elida has formed in the Eastern Pacific. This system will move harmlessly into the open ocean through the weekend, but some of the mid and upper level moisture is likely to be drawn into our southwesterly flow at 500 mb. This will be apparent with mid and/or upper level clouds arriving Sunday. Model soundings suggest that the atmospheric stability will prevent any thunderstorm chances, so this tropical moisture will most likely just be a good sunset maker with a couple novelty rain drops possible Sunday - Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail across all terminals. The patch of stratus tha developed over the Monterey Bay is quickly disapating at this hour and is expected to reform this evening as a shallow marine layer reestablishes itself. High confidence in VFR through the afternoon with moderate to high confidence of IFR ceilings returning to coastal (HAF, MRY, and SNS) and near shore (SFO and OAK) terminals this evening. Diurnal winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions and westerly flow will prevail. Moderate (60%) confidence on an IFR ceiling returning tonight. The TAF may be slightly pessimistic with a 09Z arrival. Reasonable best case scenario is the marine layer is too shallow to make it through the San Bruno Gap and has to go through the Golden Gate Gap. This would likely lead to a later arrival time or stratus remaining confined to the north of the terminal. There`s a 25% chance for wind gusts to reach 35 knots this afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions prevail with moderate west to northwesterly winds over MRY and SNS. The patch of stratus tha developed over the Monterey Bay this morning is quickly disapating at this hour. High confidence on IFR ceilings returning to the terminals tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Moderate to strong northwesterly winds will bring widespread hazardous conditions for small craft today. Localized gale force gusts are expected along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through Friday. Conditions improve Saturday as seas abate and northwesterly breezes diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The warm temperatures we have had the past several days and continued warm weather has resulted in fuels rapidly drying this week. Fire weather concerns will remain elevated this afternoon with afternoon relative humidity dropping to between 10-20% across the interior and higher elevations (away from the marine influences), gusty onshore winds, and very dry fuels. This may result in additional fire starts particularly across the interior and higher elevations. These conditions are gradually forecast to improve as the marine layer returns Thursday and deepens into Friday. Unsettled weather is possible late this weekend and into early next week with returning potential for dry thunderstorms and gusty, erratic winds. However, the focus has shift to the east more over the Sierra Nevada. RGass && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...CW MARINE...CW Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
|
| Yesterday | ⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM | Today | |
| 24-Hour Temp Change | 24-Hour RH Change | ||
⇛Visible ⇛Nighttime ⇛GeoColor+GLM
 |
|
Additional Links
National Airspace System Status
Other Webcams:
Alert California San Bruno Mountain
Alert California Sutro Tower 2
Alert California Coll of San Mateo Bldg36
Follow us on X
ZOA RSS Feed