Gusty winds and heavy rainfall may impact the Big Island of Hawaii as a nearby tropical system passes west of the islands. From the Southwest U.S., Rockies and across the Gulf Coast, heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash flooding. Severe thunderstorms are expected for areas of the Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast through Tuesday. Extreme heat lingers for the southern Plains and Southwest. Read More >
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588 FXUS66 KMTR 242029 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 129 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer - Warm, slightly above normal temperatures, and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet - Pattern change Friday into the weekend brings cooler temperatures and low potential for tropical moisture && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 128 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night) The short term forecast is fairly unchanged as we remain on the border of troughing to the north and ridging to the south. Today`s high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across interior lower elevations and mid 80s to low 90s across interior higher elevations. The interior Central Coast will be slightly warmer with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Coastal locations remain under the influence of a shallow marine layer, approx. 1000 feet, which will keep temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. We are expecting another early return of stratus along the coast tonight with the marine layer remaining between 1000-1200 feet. Ridging will become more dominant over the region tonight into tomorrow as the center of the ridge shifts slightly westward. This will result in temperatures warming by 2-5 degrees compared to today. Practically, this is the difference between the interior being in the low to mid 80s to mid to upper 80s while the higher elevations stay in the upper 80s to low 90s. No real changes to the coastal temperatures. Even with temperatures warming slightly, interior temperatures remain seasonal across the lower elevations and are only running 5-7 degrees above normal across the higher elevations. Coastal locations and areas along the SF Bay Shoreline will be seasonal to below normal. With similar weather conditions prevailing into the long term forecast, we will not be close to any record temperatures this week. Diurnally breezy winds are expected along the coast, higher terrain, and mountain gaps/passes. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 128 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday) Ridging prevails through Thursday with high temperatures in the mid to low 90s prevailing across the interior and upper 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Coastal areas experience a slight warm up with more locations reaching into the 70s but, overall, stay cooler compared to interior locations. Friday into the weekend the pattern switches up on us. A deep upper level trough will approach the Western US and move inland Friday into the weekend. As the trough moves inland we can expect it to bring cooler temperatures and breezier winds to the region. Interior highs cool into the 80s, across both the higher and the lower elevations, before gradually cooling from the 80s into the 70s Saturday through Monday. Coastal and SF Bay shoreline temperatures will remain in the 60s to potentially the low 70s. Even the interior Central Coast gets in on the cooling trend with highs dropping into the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday. Gusty onshore winds are expected each afternoon/evening Friday into the weekend as the approaching trough tightens the surface pressure gradient. Right now, the strongest gusts are between 25 to 35 mph with locally stronger gusts possible across the marine environment, the higher terrain, and the Altamont Pass. Fortunately, the incoming trough should help the marine layer to deepen and result in more widespread moist conditions across the Bay Area. That being said, it is possible higher elevations will see some offshore flow if this trough takes a more inside slider type path. Lastly, the Eastern Pacific Ocean remains quite active in terms of tropical activity. As of this morning`s NHC update, Tropical Storm Iselle and four other areas of potential tropical development were all located off of Western Mexico. While Iselle is expected to move northwest, staying well out to sea, we are anticipating an increase in long period southerly swell across our coastal waters Friday into the weekend. The current forecast remains just below criteria for a Beach Hazards Statement but this may change as we get closer in time. Beachgoers this weekend will need to be aware of the potential for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. There is still some potential for tropical moisture to be transported northwards as the trough arrives this weekend. Currently, models show minimal tropical moisture extending into our CWA but this will need to be closely monitored as we still have four potential tropical systems brewing to our south off of Mexico. The NBM highlights a non-zero (< 5%) chance for thunderstorms across our region Friday into the weekend. We are also monitoring this closely given uncertainties surrounding developing tropical storms across the Eastern Pacific.&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 A blanket of stratus has retreated to the coastline resulting in VFR conditions for most terminals, except for HAF. HAF may briefly scatter out this afternoon, but will mainly remain IFR through the TAF period. Moderate onshore flow persists during the day which will allow for a more prominent inland push of stratus tonight. The marine layer is expected to be around 1000 to 1200 feet overnight which will be sufficient enough to reach most terminals. High confidence for coastal sites (HAF, MRY, and SNS) to develop IFR to LIFR ceilings as early as sunset. Medium confidence on the exact arrival of IFR to MVFR ceilings elsewhere, though they may arrive as early as 04-06Z Tuesday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the afternoon as westerly winds increase to around 15 kt. Borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected tonight with the shallow marine layer and persistent onshore push, it just becomes a matter of when. High confidence OAK will develop ceilings before SFO, though medium confidence on the arrival as they may roll in a few hours later than specified. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue to lift this morning with VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon. An early return of IFR conditions is likely with ceilings gradually lowering to LIFR by late this evening/overnight. Some potential for reductions in visibility early tomorrow morning but that will depend how much the marine layer compresses and if fog is able to develop. Breezy onshore winds continue this afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1126 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Northwest light to moderate breezes continue into Tuesday and gradually increase to fresh by the middle of the week. Wind driven seas remain slight to moderate, though a long period swell is expected to approach our coastal waters by the end of the week. Smoke from the Timber Fire continues to impact visibility to as low as 2 miles along the Big Sur coast. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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