Severe thunderstorms will continue today across portions of the Southeast as this system tracks offshore. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions will increase fire weather concerns for areas of central Florida today; The threat shifts into portions of the northern Plains on Friday. Record warmth will spread for the southern Plains, Southwest, central Great Basin and interior California next week. Read More >
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183 FXUS66 KMTR 071929 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1229 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 - Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part of next week - Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the interior early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 (This evening through Friday) Low clouds are retreating to the coast as of early this afternoon with sunny conditions returning to inland areas. Thus, maximum temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to upper 70s across much of the interior Bay Area, low to upper 80s across the interior Central Coast, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the northwest facing coastal locations thanks to the depth of the marine layer. Stratus will once again return tonight and spread inland into the interior valleys by Friday morning before retreating to the coast by mid-to-late morning and early afternoon. Also, there is the low end potential for coastal drizzle or mist tonight into Friday morning. However, widespread rainfall highly unlikely. Friday, for most locations, will be warmer by a few degrees compared to today. Yet only expecting Minor HeatRisk across much of the interior. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) The warming and drying trend will continue into the weekend and peak on Monday of the upcoming workweek as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds westward. This is when more widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the interior. The relatively cool overnight low temperatures will likely prevent us from reaching higher categories of HeatRisk. However, in the hills and higher elevations across the region, temperatures will remain warm during the overnight period with 60s and a few 70s Monday night into Tuesday morning. The marine layer and associated impacts will begin to compress through the weekend, but not completely go away. With this and onshore flow prevailing, conditions along the northwest facing coastal locations will remain cooler compared to inland locations. On Monday, afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the low to upper 90s across the interior with the greatest potential to reach or exceed 100 degrees F being around Pinnacles National Park (50%-65%) and the southern Salinas Valley (20%-40%). Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however will still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The cooling trend is currently forecast to continue into the middle of next week as a more zonal flow returns as the ridge becomes centered over the Desert Southwest. However, the Climate Prediction Center maintains likely (roughly 60%) probability for above normal temperatures to persist through days 6-10. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026 IFR/MVFR cigs have persisted into mid-morning with better clearing trends apparent for the South Bay and Monterey terminal at TAF issuance (1720Z). North Bay and Bay Area terminals will likely have to wait until 19z-20z for low stratus to clear out, with VFR expected for the remainder of the day and early evening. A robust marine layer will produce a return of low stratus tonight through Friday morning with similar clearing times as today. Vicinity of SFO...Low stratus is expected to clear out by early afternoon with VFR expected for the remainder of the day and early evening. Expect similar timing for MVFR/IFR cigs returning tonight through much of Friday morning with persistent onshore flow, which will be breezy at times late this afternoon and evening, along with a healthy marine layer. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Salinas Valley drainage is almost complete at KSNS with VFR expected for the remainder of the day and early evening. KMRY may hold on to IFR cigs into early afternoon, however recent satellite trends show potential for clearing out earlier. Expect similar timing of a return of low stratus cigs this evening through Friday morning, and for clearing times as well. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 914 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026 Northwest winds will continue to increase through the day becoming strong tonight and continue strong through the weekend along with steadily building seas that will also persist through the weekend, and into the beginning of next week for our outer waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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