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Year

Technical Paper or Presentation

 
2017

Rainfall Analysis for the August 5, 2017, New Orleans Flash Flood Event
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

A slow-moving summer thunderstorm caused flash flooding portions of New Orleans on August 5, 2017. This paper presents a rainfall analysis and a comparison to other New Orleans flood events caused by rainfall.

 
2017

Rainfall Analysis for the Late April into Early May 2017 Flood Event in Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

In late April 2017 heavy slow-moving thunderstorms impacted parts of OK, AR, MO, and IL, and caused widrespread major flooding with numerous records broken. This paper presents a rainfall analysis using additional rainfall gauges from multiple sources.

 
2017

NWS River Forecasting, GIS, and the 2016 Amite/Comite River Flood
LMRFC Technical Presentation

[PDF]

An overview of river forecasting at the LMRFC, GIS usage at the LMRFC, and the August 2016 flood event in southeast Louisiana. Invited presentation to the Louisiana URISA organization in Baton Rouge, LA.

 
2017

Utilizing Crowd-Sourced Rainfall and Flood Impact Information to Improve the Analysis of the North Central Gulf Coast Flood Event of April 2014
Journal of Operational Meteorology

[PDF]

In late April 2014, a slow moving cold front produced a large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms across the southeast United States which caused extensive flooding of areas near Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida. This paper presents a case study to illustrate the importance of crowd sourcing rainfall observations and storm reports to establish an accurate historical context for extreme hydrologic events.

 
2016

2016 Forecast Verifications at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center Using Varying QPF
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

From summer 2015 through summer 2016, two forecast verification analyses were conducted by the NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. The first was for long range forecasts on the Mississippi River comparing forecasts with 1 day of QPF to forecasts with 16 days of QPF. The second was for smaller headwater basins comparing QPF durations of 12-72 hours.

 
2016

Addition of a Vulnerability Component to the Flash Flood Potential Index
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

The Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) has been used by many NWS Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers to determine the relative flash flood potential across an area. The FFPI lacks a component that evaluates the vulnerability to flash flooding. A Flash Flood Vulnerability Index (FFVI) was proposed and tested by LMRFC staff collaborating with other NWS offices. The FFVI was combined with the FFPI using the conceptual model of risk where risk is a combination of probability and impact.

 
2016

Geospatial Analyses at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
LMRFC Technical Presentation

[PDF]

An overview of how GIS is used at the LMRFC. Presented as an invited session at the Remote Sensing and GIS Conference in Lafayette, LA

 
2016

Creation of Rainfall Areal Reduction Factors from the Basin-Averaged Rainfall Record at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

A frequency analysis was completed for the gauge-derived, basin-averaged rainfall for subbasins in the LMRFC area. Rainfall amounts from specific average recurrence intervals (ARIs) were compared to values that would be expected to occur for a basin of a given size to look for possible biases in the rainfall database.

 
2016

Preliminary Verification of the Lag-Stage-Changes Routing Technique
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

The Lag-Stage-Changes routing method is a simplified routing scheme used by the LMRFC to aid in forecasting river stages on the Mississippi River between Cairo, IL, and New Orleans, LA. The method is based upon the simplified, hand-calculated forecasting technique used for many years by LMRFC forecasters. Because of increasing demand for long range forecasts on the Mississippi, a verification of the technique was necessary.

 
2016

Using New Orleans Pumping Data to Reconcile Gauge Observations of Isolated Extreme Rainfall due to Hurricane Isaac
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

[Abstract]

Slow-moving Hurricane Isaac affected the northern gulf coast between August 28th and August 31st, 2012. This report provides an in-depth examination and analysis of a suspected rainfall extreme in the New Orleans, Louisiana metropolitan area.

 
2016

Building Inter-Professional Relationships to Create a Weather Ready Nation - Thoughts of an Emergency Manager Turned NWS Forecaster
Conference Presentation (2016)

[Abstract]

Presented to the 2016 AMS Meeting in New Orleans, LA.

 
2015

An Untapped Mesonet -- Crowdsourcing Private Weather Stations
Conference Manuscript (2015)

[Abstract]

Presented to the 2015 AMS Meeting in Phoenix, AZ.

 
2015

Using Crowd-Sourced Data to Improve Analyses of Flash Flood Events
Conference Manuscript (2015)

[Abstract]

Presented to the 2015 AMS Meeting in Phoenix, AZ.

 

2014

Updated Rainfall Analysis for the May 1995 Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi Flooding
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

Very heavy rainfall on 10-11 May 1995 caused significant flooding across portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. A post-event technical report, NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-183 (Ricks et al., 1997), provided a meteorological overview and rainfall analysis of the event using rain gauge data. Subsequent changes to the official National Weather Service (NWS) rainfall estimation technique, improved GIS capabilities, and the completion of rainfall frequency estimates for the southern United States have allowed for a new analysis of this event.

 

2014

Analysis of the June 15, 2013, Isolated Extreme Rainfall Event in Springfield, Missouri
Journal of Operational Meteorology

[PDF]

An isolated extreme rainfall event occurred across portions of the Springfield, Missouri, area on June 15th, 2013, causing substantial flooding of several small headwater tributaries of the James River. A timeline of output from various flash flood nowcasting techniques was compared to the time of reported flooding to evaluate the usefulness of each tool in the context of NWS operations.

 

2013

Reconciling New Orleans Pumping Data with Gauge Observations of Isolated Extreme Rainfall Due to Hurricane Isaac
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

*Superceded by Journal of Hydrologic Engineering Publication*
Slow-moving Hurricane Isaac affected the northern gulf coast between August 28th and August 31st, 2012. This report provides an in-depth examination and analysis of a suspected rainfall extreme in the New Orleans, Louisiana metropolitan area.

 

2013

2012 Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi Flooding Due to Hurricane Isaac
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF (Report)] [PDF (Presentation)]

Slow-moving Hurricane Isaac affected the northern gulf coast between August 28th and August 31st, 2012. The most severe flooding impacts from storm surge and heavy rainfall occurred in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. The slow movement of Isaac was a major contributor to this flooding.

 

2007

LOUZIE: An Operational Quality Control Procedure at the LMRFC
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF]

The Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) has developed an operational, manual quality control (QC) procedure for gauged precipitation data across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This report provides a description of the data sources and methodology used to develop the LOUZIE program and spreadsheet along with an example of the monthly spreadsheet from November 2007 in Excel format.

 

2007

ENSO Forcing of Streamflow Conditions in the Pearl River Basin
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF (Report)] [PDF (Presentation)]

Long range forecasts of streamflow conditions can be improved by including the effects of El Nino/Southern Oscillation during operational procedures. This paper uses composite analysis techniques to relate above/below normal streamflows to ENSO episode and tests the skill of forecasts using 1982-2005 data.

 

2005

Forecasting Hurricane Storm Surge on the Mississippi River
LMRFC Technical Report

[PDF (Report)] [PDF (Presentation)]

A unique forecast problem for the LMRFC is the forecasting of stages on the lower Mississippi River when a hurricane induced storm surge is present. Storm surge waves move rapidly upstream and can cause significant damage and delays to barge traffic along the Mississippi River.