National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Weather and Flash Flooding Threat in the Central U.S. This Weekend

Heavy rain and severe weather is forecast across the central and southern Plains this weekend. Large hail and strong winds will be the primary threats. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms has been issued. Consecutive days of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across Missouri and Oklahoma on Sunday. A Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall has been issued. Read More >

Overview

An upper level low over southern New Mexico with an associated surface low in eastern New Mexico on the morning of the 21st was moving east towards west Texas. The main upper level 500 mb low was near Midland, Texas by the afternoon of the 21st while the surface low was near Silverton around the same time frame. Out ahead of the main cyclonic flow, showers and low topped thunderstorms developed along a surface trough that was situated across the south central Texas Panhandle. These low topped thunderstorms that developed in the aforementioned area of the surface trough did grow enough in the vertical to produce hail size from pea up to 0.5" in parts of western Amarillo. As this broad southerly flow was producing showers and low topped storms in the southern TX Panhandle, further to the northwest, a cold front was entering the northwestern Panhandles where snow was reported as early as 1-2 PM CDT in areas behind the passing cold front. Going forward to around 4 PM CDT, due to enough instability, a rogue wind gusts near 60 MPH for areas just east of Amarillo is where a severe thunderstorm warning was issued. Back to the SW TX Panhandle behind the front, steep height falls caused some non-thunderstorm high wind gusts to be reached. The main cold front continued to move east before mixing out as it reached Gray and Armstrong counties. Cyclonic flow continued to advect moisture back over what is now a stalled front just south of US Highway 60 and with cold air advection in the wake of the cold front. This resulted in precipitation further developing along an area from Amarillo northeast towards Pampa where dynamic cooling and higher precipitation rates changed the precipitation from rain to snow. Snow was reported across many areas of the Panhandles for several hours into the morning of the 22nd before the system exited the region past sunrise. Snowfall totals ranged from a trace up to 9.5" in portions of southwest Amarillo where the best deformation band set up. Peak non-thunderstorm wind gusts were as high as 64 MPH for portions of the western Texas Panhandle.
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